1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Platinum and palladium prices are still affected by the overall sentiment of the precious metals sector and geopolitical risks in the short term. Geopolitical risks remain high, driving up precious metals prices, and platinum and palladium fluctuate with the sector [8][9]. - Fundamentally, the global platinum market has been in short supply for two consecutive years. The supply of platinum is shrinking, industrial demand is rising, and low prices have stabilized jewelry and investment demand, highlighting the supply - demand contradiction. The supply - demand gap of platinum is expected to continue in the next few years, so the long - term fundamentals of platinum are optimistic [9]. - For palladium, automotive demand dominates. Due to the surge in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China, the growth of palladium demand is suppressed, and it is difficult to see improvement in the short term. Therefore, the fundamental support for palladium is limited, and its trend is affected by platinum linkage and the macro - environment [9]. - Overall, the industrial demand for platinum and palladium is concentrated in fuel - vehicle exhaust catalysts, and the fundamental support is insufficient. Their trends are mainly driven by the overall sector sentiment, and recently by safe - haven demand. They are expected to maintain high volatility and wide - range fluctuations. It is recommended to go long on platinum PT2606 and palladium PD2606 with light positions [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Views and Strategies 3.1.1 Weekly Views - **Price Trends**: Last Friday, there were fluctuations in the platinum and palladium markets. The sharp rise in the spot price of platinum in the external market drove the prices of domestic platinum and palladium to gap up on Friday. Platinum was relatively strong, with the platinum main contract closing at 685.9 yuan, up 10.39%; the palladium main contract closed at 497.95 yuan, up 3.98%. The spot price of external platinum reached a record high of 2704.3 at the early morning of Saturday. The weekly gains of domestic platinum and palladium were 12.4% and 6.1% respectively [8]. - **Macroeconomic Situation**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US in the week of January 17 was 200,000, lower than the expected 209,000. The number of continued jobless claims dropped to 1.85 million last week, lower than the expected 1.89 million, the lowest level since November, indicating a warming labor market. The final quarter - on - quarter growth rate of the US GDP in the third quarter was 4.4%, the fastest in two years, showing robust growth. In November, the overall PCE price index in the US increased by 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations; the core PCE price index also increased by 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations, indicating a mitigation of inflation risks. The market is focusing on the upcoming announcement of the new Fed Chairman, which may affect market expectations for the future interest - rate path of the Fed [8]. - **News**: The sharp rise in precious metals last week was mainly due to the intensification of geopolitical risks, which led to funds flowing into safe - haven assets. The US President's announcement of tariffs on eight European countries and Europe's strong response of selling US Treasuries, along with the deterioration of the situation in Greenland, initially increased geopolitical risks. Although the US President later cancelled the tariffs and gave up the idea of seizing the island by force, the tense relations between Europe and the US and the uncertain situation in Iran still stimulated the market's demand for safe - haven asset allocation [8]. - **Fundamentals**: In 2026, platinum and palladium are expected to show significant differences. The supply of platinum is continuously restricted, with South Africa accounting for over 70% of global production. Its demand structure is diverse, with automotive exhaust catalysts accounting for only about 40%, and the rest coming from investment, jewelry, and industrial fields. Against the background of rising platinum prices, investment demand has increased significantly. At the same time, emerging fields such as the hydrogen - energy industry and commercial spaceflight have opened up long - term growth prospects, and the supply - demand gap of platinum is expected to widen in 2026. The terminal demand for palladium is highly dependent on automotive exhaust catalysts, accounting for over 80%. Suppressed by the accelerating penetration of new energy vehicles and the substitution trend of platinum, the growth of palladium demand lacks imagination. Although there is still a short - term supply gap, it is expected to narrow significantly in 2026, with relatively limited fundamental support [8]. 3.1.2 Strategies - It is recommended to go long on platinum PT2606 and palladium PD2606 with light positions [9]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Markets - The report provides multiple sets of charts, including the trends of NYMEX platinum and palladium futures, London platinum and palladium spot prices, Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum and palladium futures, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum price [12][16][20][24]. 3.3 US Economy - The report presents charts of US GDP, PMI, new non - farm employment numbers, and the unemployment rate, which can be used to analyze the overall situation of the US economy [30][31]. 3.4 Inflation - The report provides charts of US CPI/PCE and core CPI/PCE to show the inflation situation in the US [36][39]. 3.5 Interest Rates - The report shows charts of US Treasury yields (including short - term and medium - to - long - term) and real interest rates, which can be used to analyze the interest - rate situation in the US [42][45][46]. 3.6 Fundamentals - **Platinum**: The report provides a global platinum supply - demand balance sheet from 2013 to 2026f, showing the supply from various regions (such as South Africa, Zimbabwe, North America, Russia), different types of demand (automotive, jewelry, IT, etc.), and the supply - demand gap and inventory changes in different years [51]. - **Palladium**: The report provides a global palladium supply - demand balance sheet from 2009 to 2025, showing the supply from different regions (South Africa, Russia, North America, etc.), different types of demand (automotive, chemical, dental and biomedical, etc.), and the supply - demand gap in different years [52]. 3.7 Futures Positioning - The report provides charts of the external platinum and palladium futures positionings, including non - commercial net long positions and total positions [53]. 3.8 Passenger Car Sales - The report provides charts of China's passenger - car market retail and wholesale data, including the number of vehicles sold and year - on - year changes [60]. 3.9 US Dollar Index and Exchange Rates - The report provides charts of the US dollar index and various exchange - rate pairs, including the US dollar against the Chinese yuan, the euro, the Japanese yen, the British pound, and the Canadian dollar [66][69][72][74]. 3.10 Platinum - Palladium Price Difference between Domestic and Foreign Markets - The report provides charts of the spot price trends of domestic and foreign platinum and the price difference between them [83]. 3.11 Platinum - Palladium Price Ratio - The report provides a chart of the platinum - palladium price ratio, including the ratios in NYMEX and LPPM [90].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, silver showed strong performance and reached a new historical high, with London silver breaking through the $100 per ounce mark early on Saturday. Geopolitical risks continue, and market risk - aversion sentiment remains strong, driving up precious - metal prices. The upcoming announcement of the new Federal Reserve Chairman may become a short - term market focus. In terms of commodity attributes, the silver market is in a supply - shortage state for the fifth consecutive year, and the continuous inflow of global silver ETFs and the decline in COMEX inventory indicate a long - term strong trend for silver. It is recommended to hold AG2604 long positions in the medium term [7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly View and Strategy 3.1.1 Weekly View - **Silver Trend**: Last week, silver oscillated at a high level and reached a new historical high on Friday. London silver broke through the $100 per ounce mark early on Saturday, closing at $103.341. Driven by the external market, the main contract of Shanghai silver reached a new high of 25,838 yuan per kilogram. The weekly gains of London silver and Shanghai silver were 14.7% and 11% respectively, and the cumulative gains in 2025 were 148% and 129% respectively [7] - **US Economy**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US in the week of January 17th was 200,000, lower than the expected 209,000. The number of continued jobless claims dropped to 1.85 million last week, lower than the expected 1.89 million, the lowest level since November. The US GDP in the third quarter had a quarter - on - quarter growth of 4.4%, the fastest growth rate in two years [7] - **Inflation**: In November, the overall PCE price index in the US increased by 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations. The core PCE price index also increased by 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations. The market is focused on the upcoming announcement of the new Federal Reserve Chairman, which may affect expectations of the Fed's future interest - rate path [7] - **Interest Rates**: The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond remained the same as the previous week, and the US dollar index weakened continuously last week [7] - **Supply and Demand**: In 2025, the global silver market is expected to have a supply - demand gap of over 100 million ounces, and the market has been in a supply - shortage state for the fifth consecutive year. As of January 23, 2026, the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, SLV, were 16,090 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1%. COMEX inventory declined continuously last week. LBMA inventory dropped to a historical low, and most of the silver is linked to ETFs and cannot be freely circulated, so the available inventory is tight [7] - **Price Difference**: The price difference between domestic and foreign silver futures narrowed last week, closing at 1,845. The gold - silver ratio in London spot market closed below 50, at 48.20 [7] 3.1.2 Strategy - It is recommended to hold AG2604 long positions in the medium term [8] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents the price trends of COMEX silver futures, London silver spot, Shanghai Futures Exchange silver futures, and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver through charts [11][15] 3.3 US Economy - The report shows the trends of US GDP, PMI, new non - farm payrolls, and unemployment rate through charts [22][23] 3.4 Inflation - It presents the trends of US CPI/PCE and core CPI/PCE through charts [28][31] 3.5 Interest Rates - It shows the trends of US Treasury bond yields (short - term and medium - long - term) and real interest rates through charts [37][39] 3.6 Fundamentals 3.6.1 Global Silver Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In 2025, global silver supply is expected to be 1.0306 billion ounces (a 2% year - on - year increase), and demand is expected to be 1.1482 billion ounces (a 1% year - on - year decrease), with a supply - demand gap of 117.6 million ounces (a 21% year - on - year decrease) [43] 3.6.2 Silver Demand - The report presents the trend of silver ETF holdings through a chart [44] 3.6.3 Silver Inventory - It shows the trends of COMEX silver inventory, LBMA silver inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory, and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventory through charts [47][53] 3.7 US Dollar Index and Exchange Rates - It presents the trends of the US dollar index, US dollar against the Chinese yuan, euro against the US dollar, US dollar against the Japanese yen, British pound against the US dollar, and US dollar against the Canadian dollar through charts [58][64][66] 3.8 Silver Domestic - Foreign Price Difference - It shows the trends of domestic and foreign silver futures and their price differences through charts [75] 3.9 Silver Basis - It presents the trends of domestic and foreign silver basis through charts [80][85] 3.10 Gold - Silver Ratio - It shows the trends of the gold - silver ratio in SHFE and COMEX through a chart [88]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply of industrial silicon has decreased slightly, but due to weak downstream demand, market activity is limited. It is expected that the price of industrial silicon still has room to decline. Suggest considering shorting opportunities for si2605, buying put options, or implementing an arbitrage strategy of shorting industrial silicon and going long on polysilicon [11]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon market shows a situation of having prices but no trading. Although some production enterprises have reduced supply, inventory consumption is limited, and the effect of supply - demand adjustment has not yet appeared. Future price trends still depend on the improvement of supply - demand balance and industry policy orientation. Suggest considering long opportunities for PS2605, or implementing an arbitrage strategy of shorting industrial silicon and going long on polysilicon [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - ly Views and Hot News 3.1.1 Hot News - From April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic and other products will be cancelled. From April 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate rate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6%, and from January 1, 2027, the VAT export tax rebate for battery products will be cancelled [8]. - A rumored meeting minutes show that on January 6, the State Administration for Market Regulation约谈ed relevant units in the photovoltaic industry, mainly involving issues such as monopoly risks and rectification requirements. It is speculated that the limit - down of the polysilicon futures was affected by this [8]. - On December 26, 2025, the State Administration for Market Regulation carried out compliance guidance on price competition in the photovoltaic industry in Hefei, Anhui, pointing out the "involution - style" competition problems in the industry [8]. - On December 24, 2025, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced the addition of several polysilicon futures delivery warehouses [8]. - On December 23, 2025, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange restricted the single - day opening volume of non - futures company members or clients in polysilicon futures contracts [8]. 3.1.2 Industrial Silicon Weekly View - **Market Review**: From January 16 - 23, 2026, the industrial silicon spot price remained stable, with the benchmark spot price at 8,802 yuan/ton on January 23. The futures price of the main contract declined, with a weekly decline of 2.50%, and the latest transaction price was 8,820 yuan/ton, and the current position was about 231,400 lots [11]. - **Supply**: In the southwest region, only a few manufacturers are operating, with low production. In Xinjiang, production is stable; in Inner Mongolia, some manufacturers have reduced production; in Shaanxi, some manufacturers have resumed production [11]. - **Demand**: In January, the polysilicon output continued to decline, and the industry's operating rate decreased. The silicone industry was affected by the cancellation of export tax rebates, and the aluminum rod output decreased, with general demand for industrial silicon [11]. - **Cost, Profit, and Inventory**: The production cost of industrial silicon decreased slightly this week, mainly due to the decline in silicon coal prices. Profits increased slightly, and the inventory remained at a high level [11]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: It is expected that the price of industrial silicon will still decline. Suggest shorting si2605, buying put options, or implementing an arbitrage strategy [11]. 3.1.3 Polysilicon Weekly View - **Market Review**: From January 16 - 23, 2026, the polysilicon spot price fluctuated downward, with the benchmark spot price at 50,505 yuan/ton on January 23. The futures price of the main contract declined, with a weekly decline of 2.14%, and the current position was about 46,200 lots [13]. - **Supply**: In January 2026, the polysilicon output continued to decline, and most enterprises were operating at reduced loads. It is expected that the domestic polysilicon output in January will be about 95,000 tons [13]. - **Demand**: Although the downstream demand schedule has increased compared with the initial forecast of the month, it is still declining month - on - month. The demand in the energy storage field is expected to be optimistic, but the power battery is in the off - season, and the procurement demand is restricted [13]. - **Cost, Profit, and Inventory**: This week, the cost increased, and the profit decreased significantly. The inventory showed a "high - level fluctuation" characteristic, and the overall inventory continued to accumulate [13]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: The polysilicon market shows a situation of having prices but no trading. Future price trends depend on supply - demand balance and policies. Suggest going long on PS2605 or implementing an arbitrage strategy [13]. 3.2 Industry Pattern - The industrial silicon industry chain includes raw materials such as petroleum coke, charcoal, etc. The products are mainly used in organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy industries, and are further applied in various fields such as electronics, construction, and new energy [19]. 3.3 Spot and Futures Market - The report provides multiple charts of industrial silicon spot prices (including different grades and regions) and futures contract prices (including continuous contracts and active contracts) [23][33][41] 3.4 Inventory - The report provides multiple charts of industrial silicon inventory, including industry inventory, factory inventory, market inventory, and futures inventory [52][56] 3.5 Cost and Profit - **Profit and Cost**: The report provides charts of the comprehensive profit and cost of industrial silicon [63] - **Main Production Area Electricity Prices**: Charts of electricity prices in main industrial silicon production areas such as Yunnan Nujiang, Xinjiang, and Sichuan Liangshan are provided [68][70] - **Silica Stone Prices**: Charts of silica stone prices in regions such as Guangxi, Henan, and Shaanxi are provided [77][81] - **Petroleum Coke, Electrodes, and Silicon Coal**: Charts of prices of petroleum coke, graphite electrodes, and silicon coal in different regions are provided [84][90] 3.6 Supply - **Output**: Charts of industrial silicon weekly and monthly output are provided [96] - **Operating Rate and Production Capacity**: Charts of industrial silicon operating rate and monthly production capacity are provided, and information on new production capacity projects in various regions in 2025 - 2026 is listed, with a total new production capacity of 1.98 million tons [101][104] 3.7 Demand - **Consumption Overview**: Charts of industrial silicon consumption breakdown and structure are provided, and consumption data of different industries from 2024 - 2025 are listed [107][110] - **Polysilicon**: Charts of polysilicon monthly output, price, factory inventory, cost, and profit are provided [113][118] - **Silicone**: Charts of silicone market price, intermediate (DMC) monthly output, production cost, and production gross profit in the East China region are provided [123][129] - **Aluminum Rod**: Charts of aluminum rod weekly and monthly output, price, 6063 spot inventory, and original aluminum - based alloy production, operating rate are provided [134][138][140] - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy**: Charts of recycled aluminum alloy production, production capacity, operating rate, and inventory are provided [149][151] - **Solar/PV**: Charts of solar cell cumulative output and battery slice price are provided [156] 3.8 Import and Export - The report provides charts of industrial silicon and polysilicon import and export volumes [166][170]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, China's GDP reached 1,401,879 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0% at constant prices, achieving the annual growth target. The quarterly growth rate showed a "high at first and stable later" trend. The tertiary industry was prominent, with the added value of the second and first industries also growing [9]. - The decline in China's real estate development investment intensified in 2025, with the investment in residential properties also facing increasing pressure. The sales side was under greater pressure, and the average price of commercial housing had obvious downward pressure [9]. - In December 2025, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China increased steadily, with new kinetic energy characteristics in industrial growth and obvious differentiation in traditional industries. Exports showed resilience, and residents' income increased steadily [11]. - In December 2025, China's imports and exports reached a record - high monthly scale. Exports to ASEAN and the EU increased, while exports to the US decreased [97]. - In December 2025, China's manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range, and the non - manufacturing business activity index also rebounded, but there were significant industry differences [252][260]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 National Economic Accounting - In 2025, China's GDP reached 1,401,879 billion yuan, a 5.0% year - on - year increase at constant prices. The quarterly growth rates from the first to the fourth quarter were 5.4%, 5.2%, 4.8%, and 4.5% respectively. The tertiary industry added value was 808,879 billion yuan, growing 5.4%. The second - industry added value was 499,653 billion yuan, growing 4.5%. The first - industry added value was 93,347 billion yuan, growing 3.9% [9]. 3.2 Industry - In December 2025, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year and 0.49% month - on - month, with an annual growth of 5.9%. Manufacturing was the main growth driver, and new kinetic energy in industrial growth was prominent, while traditional high - energy - consuming sectors were weak. Exports showed resilience [11]. 3.3 Price Index - In December 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and remained flat for the whole year. Food prices increased by 1.1%, and non - food prices increased by 0.8%. PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year in December 2025, with a 2.6% decline for the whole year [64][72]. 3.4 Real Estate - In 2025, China's real estate development investment was 827.88 billion yuan, a 17.2% year - on - year decrease. Residential investment decreased by 16.3%. The construction area, new construction area, and sales volume of commercial housing all declined [9][125][129][133]. 3.5 Foreign Trade and Investment - In December 2025, China's total imports and exports were 601.42 billion US dollars, a 6.24% year - on - year increase. Exports were 357.78 billion US dollars, a 6.6% increase, and imports were 243.64 billion US dollars, a 5.7% increase. The trade surplus was 114.14 billion US dollars [97]. 3.6 Fixed - Asset Investment - In 2025, China's fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 4,851.86 billion yuan, a 3.8% year - on - year decrease. Private fixed - asset investment decreased by 6.4%. Investment in the first, second, and third industries showed different trends [117]. 3.7 Domestic Trade - The report shows the trends of service retail sales, catering revenue, and commodity retail, and the year - on - year changes in the retail sales of enterprises above the designated size in various industries [161][163][168]. 3.8 Transportation - The report presents the year - on - year changes in the transportation volume of four types of goods and passengers, and the traffic flow of subways in nine major cities and traffic fixed - asset investment [171][176][179]. 3.9 Banking and Currency - The report analyzes the new social financing scale, social financing scale stock, new RMB loans, and currency liquidity. In December, the M1 - M2 "scissors gap" expanded, reflecting weakening capital activation and weak corporate business and trading willingness [186][197][203]. 3.10 Fiscal and Employment - The report shows the central and local general budget public revenues and expenditures, and the situation of urban new employment and surveyed unemployment rate [235][240][241][245]. 3.11 Business Surveys - In December 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, returning to the expansion range. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.2%, also rebounding, but with significant industry differences [252][260]. 3.12 US Macroeconomy - The report provides data on the quarterly changes in the US real GDP annualized quarterly rate, employment, retail sales, and the Fed's asset structure and federal funds rate [267][271][277][279].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by geopolitical factors, the center of crude oil prices has shifted upward, production profits are poor, and the cost side provides support. The operating rate is at a relatively low level compared to the same period, resulting in a short - term low supply. Although it is a seasonal off - peak season, policies such as the year - end sales push in the automotive and home appliance sectors and the halving of the purchase tax for new energy vehicles have boosted demand, and the downstream operating rate is higher than that of last year. Polyolefin inventories are not high, and the sentiment in the chemical market is positive, so the center of polyolefin prices may move upward [10]. - For futures and options strategies, short - term long positions are recommended [10]. - Regarding the PP unilateral strategy, due to large new PP production capacities and weak downstream demand, the medium - to - long - term trend of PP is relatively weak. However, in the short term, supply is low, inventories are not high, and the chemical market sentiment is positive. The current advice is to short PP but temporarily wait and see [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Overview 3.1.1 Inventory - China's polyethylene production enterprise sample inventory is expected to be around 320,000 tons, and the inventory is expected to continue its downward trend. This is mainly because production enterprises face certain shipment pressure near the end of the month and are expected to actively reduce inventory. China's polypropylene production enterprise inventory is expected to be around 440,000 tons, an increase from the current level [9]. 3.1.2 Supply - This week, plants such as Maoming Petrochemical, Shanghai Petrochemical, and Sinochem Quanzhou are scheduled to restart, and new planned maintenance plants include Daqing Petrochemical and Yangzi Petrochemical. Overall production is expected to increase, with the next - period total production expected to be 734,800 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons from the current total production. China's total polypropylene production is estimated to be 788,000 tons, continuing to increase and maintaining an upward trend [9]. 3.1.3 Demand - This week, the overall operating rate of PE downstream industries has slightly declined. Factories' expected new orders are limited, and the long - term contract consumption at the terminal is almost over. The focus is on fulfilling pre - holiday orders. In the automotive and home appliance sectors, the year - end sales push and policies such as the halving of the purchase tax for new energy vehicles have boosted the demand for modified PP materials. Coupled with the stocking demand for small home appliances, it has supported the recovery of modified PP orders [9]. 3.1.4 Industrial Chain Profit - The profits of oil - based PE and PP remain in a loss state. The profit of ethylene - based PE has decreased, the loss of propylene - based PP profit has widened, and the loss of PDH - based PP is still significant. The cost side provides support [9]. 3.2 PP Unilateral Strategy - Strategy: Short PP. As of January 22nd, the price was in a high - level oscillation at 6,624 yuan. - Logic: PP has large new production capacities and weak downstream demand, so the medium - to - long - term trend of PP is relatively weak. However, in the short term, supply is low, inventories are not high, and the chemical market sentiment is positive. - Operation advice: Temporarily wait and see [13]. 3.3 Supply Side 3.3.1 PE Production - This week, the overall production of PE is expected to increase. The next - period total production is expected to be 734,800 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons from the current total production [9]. 3.3.2 PP Production - China's total polypropylene production is estimated to be 788,000 tons, continuing to increase and maintaining an upward trend [9]. 3.3.3 PE and PP Imports - Relevant data charts show the import volume of PE and PP from 2021 to 2025, but no specific data analysis for the current period is provided [86]. 3.3.4 PE and PP Capacity Analysis - PE has maintained high - speed capacity growth in the past 5 years, with an average annual capacity growth rate of up to 12%. In 2025, the new production capacity was 5.43 million tons, and the capacity base increased to 41.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. In 2026, the planned PE production capacity to be put into operation is 9.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.45%. Considering the poor production profit, the actual production volume put into operation may be about half [92][100]. - PP has also maintained high - speed capacity growth in the past 5 years, with an average annual capacity growth rate of up to 11%. In 2025, China's realized PP production capacity was about 4.555 million tons, and the capacity base increased to 49.165 million tons, an increase of 10.2% compared to 2024. In 2026, the planned PP production capacity to be put into operation is 9.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.1%. Considering the poor production profit, the actual production volume put into operation may be about half [98][102]. 3.4 Demand Side 3.4.1 PE/PP Downstream Operating Rate - The overall operating rate of PE downstream industries has slightly declined this week. Factories' expected new orders are limited, and the long - term contract consumption at the terminal is almost over. The focus is on fulfilling pre - holiday orders. In the automotive and home appliance sectors, the year - end sales push and policies such as the halving of the purchase tax for new energy vehicles have boosted the demand for modified PP materials. Coupled with the stocking demand for small home appliances, it has supported the recovery of modified PP orders [9]. 3.4.2 PE/PP Exports - Relevant data charts show the export volume of PE and PP from 2021 to 2025, but no specific data analysis for the current period is provided [127]. 3.4.3 Plastics Products - Relevant data charts show the production volume of plastics products, the inventory of the rubber and plastics products industry, the year - on - year monthly growth rate of automobile and home appliance production, the export volume of home appliances, the domestic automobile production volume, and the automobile export volume from 2021 to 2025, but no specific data analysis for the current period is provided [130][131][136].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall supply and demand of crude oil still tend to be in surplus, but recent trends are still affected by geopolitical factors between the US and Iran and weather conditions in Europe and the US. The medium - to long - term outlook is still bearish, but short - term attention should be paid to the pulsed bullish impact of geopolitics. It is recommended to hold long call option positions for protection, with the resistance level of the SC2603 contract at 450 - 460 yuan/barrel [8] Summary by Directory Supply - **Drilling Quantity**: As of December last year, the global active oil and gas rig count was 1,782, a decrease of 30 from the previous month and 82 from the same period last year. Among them, the number of US rigs was 546, a decrease of 3 from the previous month and 43 from the same period last year [27] - **OPEC and Saudi Arabia's Crude Oil Production**: In December, the total OPEC+ crude oil production was 42.831 million barrels per day, a decrease of 238,000 barrels per day from the previous month. OPEC's crude oil production was 28.564 million barrels per day, an increase of 105,000 barrels per day from the previous month. Saudi Arabia's crude oil production was 10.078 million barrels per day, an increase of 27,000 barrels per day from the previous month [8][31] - **US Crude Oil Production**: As of the week of January 16, US crude oil production was 13.732 million barrels per day, a decrease of 21,000 barrels per day from the previous week and an increase of 248,000 barrels per day from the same period last year. US shale oil production in December was 9.22 million barrels per day, accounting for about 66% of total crude oil production [47] - **China's Crude Oil Production and Imports**: In 2025, China's cumulative crude oil production was 216 million tons, a 2.1% decrease from the previous month and a 1.54% increase from the same period last year. Cumulative crude oil imports were 522 million tons, a 4.4% increase from the previous year [51] Demand - **Crude Oil Demand**: In 2025, the global crude oil demand was 104 million barrels per day, a 0.43% increase from the previous month and a 1.10% increase from the same period last year. China's apparent crude oil consumption in 2025 was 791 million tons, a 3.44% increase from the previous year [58] - **Refinery Utilization Rates**: As of the week of January 16, the US refinery utilization rate was 93.3%, a decrease of 2 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 7.4 percentage points from the same period last year. The US refineries will enter the spring maintenance period, and the utilization rate may gradually decline. China's refinery utilization rate was 71.42%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 1.75 percentage points from the same period last year [62] - **Refined Oil Production and Exports**: In 2025, China's cumulative gasoline production from January to December was 162.8 million tons, a 5.07% decrease from the previous year; cumulative gasoline exports were 8.0128 million tons, a 17.7% decrease from the previous year. Cumulative diesel production was 209.6 million tons, a 4.55% decrease from the previous year; cumulative diesel exports were 6.68 million tons, a 16.6% decrease from the previous year. Cumulative kerosene production was 61.6166 million tons, a 5.76% increase from the previous year; cumulative kerosene exports were 21.8231 million tons, a 14.61% increase from the previous year [70][76][80] - **Automobile and Truck Production**: In 2025, China's cumulative automobile production was 34.531 million, a 10.4% increase from the previous year. Among them, cumulative new energy vehicle production was 16.626 million, a 29% increase from the previous year. The new energy vehicle industry in China has developed rapidly since 2020, having a certain substitution effect on traditional oil product demand [85] Inventory - **OECD and Global In - Transit Crude Oil Inventory**: According to the OPEC monthly report in January, OECD's commercial oil inventory in November increased by 4 million barrels month - on - month (with crude oil increasing by 8.1 million barrels and refined oil decreasing by 4.1 million barrels), 77.6 million barrels higher than the same period last year and slightly 0.3 million barrels higher than the five - year average. The global in - transit crude oil inventory remained at a high level [91] - **US Crude Oil and Refined Oil Inventory**: As of the week of January 16, US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 3.602 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 1.478 million barrels. The EIA gasoline inventory increased by 5.977 million barrels, and distillate fuel oil inventory increased by 3.348 million barrels. Due to the weakening of refinery utilization rates and weak terminal consumption, refined oil inventories continued to accumulate [93][96] - **China's Crude Oil Inventory**: China's crude oil port inventory continued to decline, and the inventory was higher than the same period last year. The exchange warehouse receipt inventory remained stable at a low level [101] Market - **International and Domestic Crude Oil Prices**: Last week, international crude oil prices first rose and then fell, and the main contracts were at the lowest level in recent years during the same period. The domestic SC crude oil mainly followed the trend of international crude oil. The B - W spread weakened slightly last week and was higher than the same period last year. The SC - Oman spread rebounded and was lower than the same period last year [16][21][23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report 2.1 Soda Ash - Last week, soda ash plants operated stably, production continued to rise, demand remained weak and stable, and manufacturers' inventories continued to accumulate. With sufficient soda ash production capacity, supply is expected to increase after plant overhauls end, while terminal demand remains weak, limiting price rebound space. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1150 - 1280 [8]. 2.2 Glass - Last week, there was no glass production line water - release or ignition, and a previously ignited production line started producing glass, with a slight increase in daily melting volume. Market production and sales were fair, and enterprise inventories continued to decline. Some glass production lines have cold - repair plans. After supply tightens, market production and sales have improved, and high - level inventories have decreased to relieve pressure, but they are still at a high level compared to the same period. In the short term, it will continue to fluctuate at a low level. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1070 - 1180 [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Views and Strategies 3.1.1 Soda Ash - **Inventory**: As of January 15, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.575 million tons, including 837,000 tons of light soda ash and 738,000 tons of heavy soda ash. Compared with 1.4311 million tons in the same period last year, it increased by 14,390 tons, a rise of 10.06%. Enterprises mainly delivered previous orders, and inventory increased slightly [8]. - **Supply**: As of January 15, 2026, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 775,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 21,700 tons, a rise of 2.88%. Among them, the production of light soda ash was 361,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 12,400 tons, and the production of heavy soda ash was 413,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,300 tons. Most enterprise equipment operated stably, with few overhaul expectations, and combined with the increase in new production capacity, supply remained high [8]. - **Demand**: As of January 15, 2026, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 773,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 31.20%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 99.70%, a week - on - week increase of 21.52 percentage points. Some enterprises delivered orders during the week, overall production and sales were basically balanced, inventory increased slightly, and the overall shipment rate increased [8]. 3.1.2 Glass - **Inventory**: As of January 15, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 53.013 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 2.505 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 4.51%, and a year - on - year increase of 20.89%. The inventory days were 23 days, a decrease of 1.1 days from the previous period [11]. - **Supply**: From January 9 - 15, 2026, the average operating rate of the float glass industry was 71.38%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.58 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate of the float glass industry was 75.14%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.49 percentage points. The national float glass production was 1.0523 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.65% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.28% [11]. - **Profit**: From January 9 - 15, 2026, according to the production cost calculation model of Longzhong Information, the weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 164.40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 22.00 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of float glass using coal - made gas as fuel was - 69.01 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4.82 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of float glass using petroleum coke as fuel was 3.93 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9.71 yuan/ton [11]. - **Demand**: As of January 15, 2026, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.3 days, a week - on - week increase of 7.9% and a year - on - year increase of 86.4%. As the Spring Festival approaches, the deep - processing order trends in the north and south regions are differentiated. The executable days of orders in the south have slightly increased, and some orders can be maintained for more than 20 days; orders in the north and central regions have declined [11]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Structure 3.2.1 Soda Ash Industrial Chain - **Upstream**: Natural soda mines, raw salt, synthetic ammonia, raw salt, limestone, ammonium chloride - **Mid - stream**: Soda ash (light soda ash/heavy soda ash) - **Downstream**: Agricultural fertilizers, glass, daily detergents [14] 3.2.2 Flat Glass Industrial Chain - **Upstream**: Auxiliary materials (clarifiers, colorants), quartz sand, limestone, soda ash; fuels include coal - made gas (24%), natural gas (40%), petroleum coke (16%) - **Mid - stream**: Float glass, other (such as calendering method), tempered glass, laminated glass, hollow glass, coated glass - **Downstream**: Real estate (75%), automobile (18%), electronic appliances (7%) [16] 3.3 Futures and Spot Market 3.3.1 Glass - As of January 16, 2026, the closing price of the FG main contract was 1103, and the closing price of the North China basis was - 83 yuan/ton. The FG5 - 9 spread closed at - 106 yuan/ton [23][33]. 3.3.2 Soda Ash - As of January 16, 2026, the closing price of the SA main contract was 1192, and the closing price of the North China basis was 58 yuan/ton. The SA5 - 9 spread closed at - 67 yuan/ton [28][33]. 3.4 Inventory 3.4.1 Glass - As of January 15, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 53.013 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 2.505 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 4.51%, and a year - on - year increase of 20.89%. The inventory days were 23 days, a decrease of 1.1 days from the previous period. Inventories in North China decreased by 10.27% week - on - week, in East China by 2.07%, in South China by 3.80%, and in Central China by 10.43% [37][43][45]. 3.4.2 Soda Ash - As of January 15, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.575 million tons, including 837,000 tons of light soda ash and 738,000 tons of heavy soda ash. Compared with 1.4311 million tons in the same period last year, it increased by 14,390 tons, a rise of 10.06%. Enterprises mainly delivered previous orders, and inventory increased slightly [50]. 3.5 Supply Side 3.5.1 Glass - From January 9 - 15, 2026, the average operating rate of the float glass industry was 71.38%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.58 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate of the float glass industry was 75.14%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.49 percentage points. The national float glass production was 1.0523 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.65% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.28%. The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel increased by 22 yuan/ton week - on - week, that using coal - made gas increased by 4.82 yuan/ton, and that using petroleum coke increased by 9.71 yuan/ton [56][58]. 3.5.2 Soda Ash - As of January 15, 2026, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 775,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 21,700 tons, a rise of 2.88%. Among them, the production of light soda ash was 361,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 12,400 tons, and the production of heavy soda ash was 413,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,300 tons. As of January 15, 2026, the theoretical profit of soda ash produced by the ammonia - soda process in China was - 96.3 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 66.46%; the theoretical profit (per double - ton) of soda ash produced by the combined - soda process was - 44 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 108% [65][66]. 3.6 Demand Side 3.6.1 Glass - As of January 15, 2026, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.3 days, a week - on - week increase of 7.9% and a year - on - year increase of 86.4%. As the Spring Festival approaches, the deep - processing order trends in the north and south regions are differentiated. The executable days of orders in the south have slightly increased, and some orders can be maintained for more than 20 days; orders in the north and central regions have declined [71]. 3.6.2 Soda Ash - As of January 15, 2026, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 773,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 31.20%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 99.70%, a week - on - week increase of 21.52 percentage points. Some enterprises delivered orders during the week, overall production and sales were basically balanced, inventory increased slightly, and the overall shipment rate increased [84].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. Core View of the Report The short - term market may experience wide - range fluctuations, but the medium - term upward logic of stock index remains unchanged. After a sharp rise, the short - term market may have large - scale fluctuations. Heavy - position profit - takers are advised to reduce positions on last Tuesday and Wednesday, then cover positions on dips or conduct intraday short - term trading. The spring market long - position window has opened, and the market will maintain an oscillating upward pattern. The mid - term view of being bullish on the stock index remains unchanged under the continuous increase of margin trading funds and the stabilization of the third - quarter report performance [16]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly View and Strategy - **Fundamental View**: Last week, the market rose first and then fell. The performance of the four major indexes was different, with small and medium - cap indexes rising and large - cap indexes falling. The growth and cyclical style indexes continued to rise, while the financial, consumer, and stable style indexes declined. In the Shenwan industry, TMT and cyclical sectors such as computer, electronics, non - ferrous metals, and media led the rise, while sectors such as military industry, real estate, agriculture, and coal led the decline. In December 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. The supply and demand sides of the manufacturing PMI continued to recover. The A - share performance showed signs of stabilization in the first quarter, declined in the second quarter, and continued to stabilize and recover in the third quarter [7][10]. - **Strategy View and Outlook**: The short - term market may experience wide - range fluctuations, but the medium - term upward logic of the stock index remains unchanged. It is recommended that heavy - position profit - takers reduce positions and then cover positions on dips or conduct intraday short - term trading. The spring market long - position window has opened, and the market will maintain an oscillating upward pattern. The mid - term view of being bullish on the stock index remains unchanged. In operation, long - term mid - line positions can be held, and short - term long positions should set stop - profit levels. Call options can be held with short - term stop - profit levels set [16]. 2. Index Industry Trend Review - Last week, the market rose first and then fell. The performance of the four major indexes was different, with small and medium - cap indexes rising and large - cap indexes falling. The growth and cyclical style indexes continued to rise, while the financial, consumer, and stable style indexes declined. In the Shenwan industry, TMT and cyclical sectors such as computer, electronics, non - ferrous metals, and media led the rise, while sectors such as military industry, real estate, agriculture, and coal led the decline [22][25]. 3. Main Contract and Basis Trend - Among the four major indexes, IC and IM continued to rise, while IH and IF adjusted. In terms of basis, the quarterly main contract basis of IM returned to a reasonable level. In terms of arbitrage among main contracts, IC/IF and IC/IH oscillated upwards, IH/IF oscillated, IM/IF and IM/IH oscillated upwards, and IM/IC continued to decline [32][36]. 4. Policy and Economy - **Economic Data**: In December 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. The supply and demand sides of the manufacturing PMI continued to recover. PPI has shown different trends since 2023. In November 2025, industrial enterprise revenue continued to decline to 1.6%, and inventory continued to rise to 4.6%. The growth rate of medium - and long - term credit has been falling since May 2023, reaching 5.89% in November 2025 [42][45][53]. - **Policy**: The Politburo set the tone for the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize and boost the capital market. The State Council issued the New Nine - Point Plan to strengthen investor returns. The central bank created two new monetary policy tools. The implementation plan for promoting the entry of medium - and long - term funds into the market was officially released, which is expected to add 800 billion yuan of long - term funds to the A - share market annually [10]. 5. Revenue and Net Profit of Each Index - The performance of A - shares showed signs of stabilization in the first quarter, declined in the second quarter, and continued to stabilize and recover in the third quarter. In the third quarter of 2025, the performance of the four major indexes rebounded again [79][83]. 6. Valuation - The Shanghai Composite Index's valuation is 17.0155, with an upper - limit value of 15.68, at the 92.32 percentile since 2010, indicating a high valuation. The ChiNext's valuation is relatively low [94]. 7. Fed Interest Rate No information provided on the Fed interest rate. 8. Capital Flows - **Margin Trading**: In 2024, the net inflow was 274.8 billion yuan; in 2025, it was 670 billion yuan; as of January 15, 2026, the net inflow was 177.1 billion yuan, with a large net inflow of 98.1 billion yuan in the first five trading days. - **ETF**: From April 7, 2025, to January 16, 2026, the ETF scale increased by 71.8 billion yuan, 137.1 billion yuan less than the previous week. As of January 16, 2026, the ETF funds had a small net outflow of 138.3 billion yuan. - **Private Securities Investment Funds**: The scale increased by 1.8253 trillion yuan in the first 11 months of 2025, with a significant increase of 1.040028 trillion yuan in October, and the current total scale is 7.0076 trillion yuan. The newly registered scale in the first 11 months of 2025 was 433.7 billion yuan. - **Insurance Funds**: In the third quarter of 2025, the market value of A - shares held by insurance funds increased by 552.4 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 18.00%. In the first three quarters of 2025, the market value of A - shares held by insurance funds increased by 1.193 trillion yuan, and after deducting the scale increase, it increased by 758.4 billion yuan. - **Newly Established Funds**: As of September 30, 2025, the newly established stock - type fund shares were 323.3 billion, of which 137 billion were in the third quarter; the newly established hybrid - type fund shares were 103.6 billion, of which 53 billion were in the third quarter. In 2025, index - type funds had a net inflow of 104.9 billion yuan, while active equity - type funds had a net outflow of 444.9 billion yuan, and equity - type funds had a net outflow of 340 billion yuan [13][103][105]. 9. Technical Analysis No information provided on technical analysis other than the historical price charts of the four major indexes.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, Shanghai Tin prices broke through significantly at high levels and then fell sharply. On January 16, 2026, the spot price of Mysteel's comprehensive 1 tin was 413,500 yuan/ton, with large price fluctuations and significant changes in the basis. - In November, refined tin production was 15,490 tons, returning to normal both month - on - month and year - on - year. From January to October, the domestic tin ore production was 61,800 tons, with a slight year - on - year increase, and domestic tin ore supply remained stable. Myanmar's repeated progress in mine resumption affected the price range, and Indonesia's exports decreased in December. - In November, the demand growth of integrated circuits, automobiles, and PVC remained strong, while the demand in traditional sectors such as computers and some white goods slowed down. It is expected that in December, the demand in emerging sectors will maintain resilience, and the demand in some traditional sectors will be adjusted. In 2025, China's foreign trade imports and exports reached 45.47 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%, maintaining growth for 9 consecutive years. China's automobile production and sales both exceeded 34 million units in 2025, reaching a new high and ranking first globally for 17 consecutive years. The domestic economy is resilient, and the prosperity of the new energy and semiconductor industries is rising. Overseas uncertainties remain high, and there is still a high probability of interest rate cuts in the later period. - The mining end remains tight, and processing fees continue to decline weakly. Overall, profits will remain low under the influence of mining end disturbances. - LME inventories increased slightly week - on - week, SHFE inventories increased significantly week - on - week, and social inventories decreased slightly week - on - week. - Due to insufficient supply, the domestic economy still has resilience, and the overall prosperity of semiconductors, automobiles, etc. remains upward. Overseas uncertainties remain high, and there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts in the later period. The mining end situation is volatile. High - price expectations suppress demand and stimulate supply. After the futures price was significantly pulled up by funds and then fell sharply, the industry association called on all parties in the market to maintain a rational and cautious attitude, and the exchange introduced cooling measures. In terms of operation, reduce the holdings of long positions. The weekly reference support level has been raised to around 360,000 - 363,000 yuan/ton. For those who bought put options, they can reduce their positions after the market stabilizes. Later, focus should be on the implementation of macro - measures, the disturbances of Myanmar and Congo mines, the speed of Indonesia's exports, and the verification of consumption data. [14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - on - Week View and Strategy - **View**: The impact factors such as output, downstream demand, inventory, imports and exports, market sentiment, cost - profit, and macro environment are all rated as neutral [15]. - **Strategy**: Reduce the holdings of long positions, with the weekly reference support level raised to around 360,000 - 363,000 yuan/ton. For put option buyers, reduce positions after the market stabilizes. Focus on macro - measures, mine disturbances, Indonesia's exports, and consumption data [14]. 3.2. Industrial Chain Structure No specific content provided for in - depth summary. 3.3. Futures and Spot Market No specific content provided for in - depth summary other than the mention of SHFE and LME tin futures - spot prices and basis charts [21]. 3.4. Inventory - As of January 15, 2026, SHFE tin inventory was 9,526 tons, with a significant week - on - week increase. - As of January 14, 2026, LME total tin inventory was 5,925 tons, with a slight week - on - week increase. - As of January 9, 2026, refined tin social inventory was 8,076 tons, with a slight week - on - week decrease [33][37]. 3.5. Cost - Profit As of January 15, 2026, the processing fee of Yunnan concentrate was 11,000 yuan/ton, and that of Guangxi concentrate was 7,000 yuan/ton. Processing fees continued to be weak [42]. 3.6. Supply - In November 2025, refined tin production was 15,490 tons, returning to normal supply. In October 2025, domestic tin ore production was 5,236.8 tons, with a slight month - on - month decrease. - In November 2025, the capacity utilization rate of tin enterprises was about 66.5%, returning to normal [48][52]. 3.7. Demand - In November 2025, China's automobile production was 3.519 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 2.4%; China's electronic computer production was 29.028 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. - In December 2025, China's PVC production was 2.137 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%; in November 2025, China's mobile electronic communication production was 142.35 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 11.6%. - In November 2025, China's air - conditioner production was 15.026 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 23.4%; China's refrigerator production was 9.442 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. - In November 2025, China's washing - machine production was 12.013 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.5%; China's color television production was 17.449 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. - In November 2025, China's solar energy production was 73.49 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%; China's integrated circuit production was 43.9 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 15.6% [59][64][69][74][78]. 3.8. Imports and Exports - In November 2025, China imported 15,000 tons of tin ore, with a significant month - on - month increase; imported 1,194 tons of tin ingots; and exported 2,045 tons of refined tin and alloys [82]. 3.9. Supply - Demand Table | Year/(10,000 tons) | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | China's Production | 18.1 | 15.9 | 18 | 19.8 | 17.9 | 17.4 | 18.1 | 18.45 | 18.67 | | Overseas Production | 17.7 | 19.5 | 14.8 | 15.3 | 20.1 | 19.2 | 17.1 | 17.5 | 19.3 | | Global Supply | 35.8 | 35.4 | 32.8 | 35.1 | 38 | 36.6 | 35.2 | 35.95 | 37.97 | | China's Demand | 14.9 | 14 | 16.4 | 18.4 | 18.1 | 18.75 | 19.1 | 19.3 | 19.87 | | Overseas Demand | 22.3 | 21.9 | 18.8 | 20.5 | 19.9 | 18.2 | 18.1 | 18.7 | 19.15 | | Global Demand | 37.2 | 35.9 | 35.2 | 38.9 | 38 | 36.95 | 37.2 | 38 | 39.02 | | Global Supply - Demand Balance | - 1.4 | - 0.5 | - 2.4 | - 3.8 | 0.05 | - 0.35 | - 2 | - 2.05 | - 1.05 | [85]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The current pig industry is in a critical game period between short - term price pressure and long - term capacity clearance. The pattern of increasing supply and weak demand in the national pig market is difficult to change in the short term. The spot price of live pigs will remain at a low level even in the peak season. The futures market trend depends on market sentiment, and attention should be paid to factors such as the inventory of breeding sows, the slaughter rhythm of farmers, the scale of secondary fattening, and the realization of seasonal demand [12] - The pressure on the supply side of live pigs remains high, the progress of sow capacity reduction is slow, and the winter demand improvement has limited pulling effect. The medium - term spot price of live pigs lacks continuous upward drive and may be weakly adjusted after a short - term rebound [10][23] - The supply of commercial pigs is expected to continue to increase until the first half of 2026. The lowest price of this cycle is expected to be in the first quarter of 2026 [10][12] - The main contract pressure level is 12300 - 13000. In terms of options, you can buy call options of far - month contracts with a light position [13] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Views and Strategies 3.1.1. Fundamental Views - Spot: The weekly average price of live pig spot has increased. The national average live pig slaughter price is 12.61 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 1.61% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.48%. The supply - side pressure remains high, the sow capacity reduction is slow, the winter demand improvement is limited, and the spot price may be weakly adjusted after a short - term rebound [10][23] - Capacity: In October 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.9 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1%, falling below 40 million again. The capacity regulation has achieved initial results. However, the inventory is still in the green area of capacity regulation, and it does not mean the beginning of a new cycle of soaring pig prices. From April 2024 to November 2025, the inventory of breeding sows showed a fluctuating upward trend, and the sow capacity was basically stable in 2025. It is expected that the national live pig slaughter volume will continue to increase until May 2026, and the lowest price of this cycle is expected to be in the first quarter of 2026 [10] 3.1.2. Strategy Views and Outlook - Outlook: The industry is in a game period between short - term price pressure and long - term capacity clearance. The capacity reduction progress is slow, the supply of commercial pigs will continue to increase in the first half of 2026, and the long - term supply pressure is difficult to relieve fundamentally. The total domestic pork consumption shows a steady decline trend, and the pattern of increasing supply and weak demand is difficult to change in the short term. The supply pressure may further increase before the Spring Festival, and the spot price will remain low. Pay attention to factors such as the inventory of breeding sows, the slaughter rhythm of farmers, the scale of secondary fattening, and the realization of seasonal demand, and track the position dynamics of main funds [12] - Strategy: The main contract pressure level is 12300 - 13000. In terms of options, you can buy call options of far - month contracts with a light position [13] 3.2. Spot and Futures Markets - Spot price: The weekly average price of live pig spot has increased. The national average live pig slaughter price is 12.61 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 1.61% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.48%. The supply - side pressure remains high, the sow capacity reduction is slow, the winter demand improvement is limited, and the spot price may be weakly adjusted after a short - term rebound [10][23] - Spot - futures basis: No specific analysis conclusion provided - Futures spread: No specific analysis conclusion provided - Standard - fat and hair - white price difference: The demand support for fat pigs is relatively strong, and the price increase of fat pigs is greater than that of standard pigs. The national standard - fat price difference has widened to - 0.64 yuan/kg this week [42] - Piglet and binary sow price: The weekly average price of 7kg piglets is 309.05 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 22.00% and a year - on - year decrease of 31.03%. The current national piglet profit is about 30 yuan/head [46] - Culled sow price: The price of culled sows has adjusted narrowly following the live pig price. It is expected that the price of culled sows of multiple parities may fluctuate and adjust next week [49] 3.3. Capacity - Inventory of breeding sows: In October 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.9 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1%, falling below 40 million again. The capacity regulation has achieved initial results, and the inventory is still in the green area of capacity regulation. In December, the inventory continued to decline slowly. It is expected that the inventory will slightly decline in January [54][57] - Culled volume of breeding sows: In December, the culled volume of breeding sows in 123 large - scale farms was 115,814, a month - on - month increase of 3.06% and a year - on - year increase of 18.80%. The culled volume in 85 small and medium - sized farms was 11,518, a month - on - month decrease of 0.75% and a year - on - year increase of 5.47%. It is expected that the culled volume may increase easily and decrease difficultly in January [61] - Inventory proportion of breeding sows: No specific analysis conclusion provided 3.4. Supply Side - Inventory of commercial pigs: In December, the inventory of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms was 36.9216 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23% and a year - on - year increase of 4.72%. The inventory in 85 small and medium - sized farms was 1.5558 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.09% and a year - on - year increase of 8.17%. It is expected that the inventory will increase in January [69] - Slaughter volume of commercial pigs: In November, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms was 11.3649 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.65% and a year - on - year increase of 15.59%. The slaughter volume in 85 small and medium - sized farms was 0.5151 million, a month - on - month decrease of 2.03% and a year - on - year increase of 29.75%. It is expected that the slaughter volume may increase in December [72] - Slaughter average weight of commercial pigs: The weekly average slaughter weight of live pigs has adjusted narrowly and the center of gravity has slightly moved down. It is difficult to drive the increase of the slaughter weight [78] 3.5. Demand Side - Slaughter volume of live pigs: The purchase cost of slaughtering enterprises has increased, the terminal reception is average, and the weekly average operating rate is weakly running. The slaughtering enterprises have reduced production to maintain prices, increased the fresh - sales ratio, and the frozen product inventory is in the stage of slow digestion [83] - Cold storage rate of slaughtering enterprises: After the festival, the market demand has declined, the purchase cost pressure of slaughtering enterprises is high, and they have reduced production to maintain prices. The frozen product inventory level has continued to decline [86] - Operating rate and fresh - sales rate of slaughtering enterprises: This week, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises is 35.91%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points from last week and a decrease of 1.14 percentage points from the same period last year. It is expected that the operating rate will maintain a weak and narrow - range shock next week [89] - Substitute price: No specific analysis conclusion provided 3.6. Cost and Profit - Pig breeding and slaughtering profit: This week, the overall loss of the domestic pig breeding industry has continued to narrow. The average profit per head in the self - breeding and self - raising mode is 63.5 yuan. The average loss per head in the mode of purchasing piglets is 39.11 yuan, a significant narrowing of 35.78 yuan from last week. It is expected that the breeding profit may be under pressure in the middle and late ten days [102] - Slaughtering gross profit and feed - to - meat ratio: No specific analysis conclusion provided - Pig - to - grain ratio: This week, the pig - to - grain ratio is 5.44, a week - on - week increase of 1.26%. The market is still in the state of excessive decline warning. It is expected that the pig - to - grain ratio will continue to slightly expand next week [108]