Economic Indicators - The US dollar index rose to approximately 104.3, marking a nearly 3% increase year-to-date, the highest since late July[6] - The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond increased to 4.25%, up 55 basis points since the Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point rate cut on September 18[6] - In September, the industrial added value for large enterprises grew by 5.4% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.9 percentage points from the previous month[7] Consumer and Retail Data - In September, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,112 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, with a growth acceleration of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month[8] - Excluding automobiles, retail sales amounted to 36,573 billion yuan, growing by 3.6%[8] Sector Performance - In September, 36 out of 41 major industries reported year-on-year growth in added value, with notable increases in sectors such as transportation equipment manufacturing (13.7%) and computer and electronic equipment manufacturing (10.6%)[7] - The automotive manufacturing sector saw a decline of 1.0%, while new energy vehicles surged by 48.5%[7] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The pace of inflation decline in the US has slowed, leading to adjustments in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts[6] - Geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices have heightened market concerns about global economic recovery, contributing to a rebound in the dollar index[6]

Economic Growth - In Q3 2024, GDP grew by 4.6% year-on-year, continuing a downward trend from previous quarters[6] - The GDP for the first three quarters totaled 94,974.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%[6] - The government set a GDP growth target of around 5.0% for 2024, consistent with the previous year's target[6] Industrial Performance - In September 2024, industrial output increased by 5.4% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.9 percentage points from the previous month[6] - From January to September 2024, industrial output grew by 5.8% year-on-year[6] - Among 41 major industries, 36 reported year-on-year growth in output in September[6] Consumer Spending - Retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,112 billion yuan in September, up 3.2% year-on-year, with a 1.1 percentage point increase from the previous month[7] - Online retail sales totaled 108,928 billion yuan from January to September, growing by 8.6% year-on-year[7] - Excluding automobiles, retail sales grew by 3.6% in September[7] Real Estate Market - New residential property sales prices in first-tier cities fell by 4.7% year-on-year in September, with declines in Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen[8] - From January to September 2024, real estate investment dropped by 10.1% year-on-year, with residential investment down by 10.5%[8] - The area of new housing starts decreased by 22.2% year-on-year during the same period[8]

Economic Indicators - In September 2024, the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% year-on-year, remaining flat compared to the previous month[6] - The average CPI for January to September 2024 rose by 0.3% compared to the same period last year[6] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for September 2024 decreased by 2.8% year-on-year, with the decline rate expanding[6] Price Contributions - Food and tobacco prices rose by 2.3%, contributing approximately 0.66 percentage points to the CPI increase[6] - Fresh vegetable prices surged by 22.9%, impacting the CPI by about 0.48 percentage points[6] - Pork prices increased by 16.2%, contributing 0.21 percentage points to the CPI[6] Industrial Production - The average PPI for January to September 2024 fell by 2.0% year-on-year, while the purchase price index decreased by 2.1%[6] - The prices of production materials dropped by 3.3%, contributing approximately 2.41 percentage points to the overall PPI decline[6] - In September 2024, the PPI and purchase price index decreased by 0.6% and 0.8% month-on-month, respectively[6] Fiscal Policy - The Ministry of Finance emphasized four key areas for future fiscal policy: increasing debt limits, issuing special government bonds, supporting the real estate market, and enhancing support for key groups[6] - The Ministry indicated that there is significant room for further debt issuance and deficit increases, signaling a proactive fiscal stance[6]

Economic Indicators - In September 2024, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.8%, slightly up from 49.5% the previous month, indicating a minor recovery in manufacturing sentiment[6] - The production index rose to 51.2%, a significant increase of 1.4%, returning to the expansion zone, reflecting enhanced production willingness among enterprises[6] - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell to 50.0%, down 0.3% from the previous month, indicating a slight decline in non-manufacturing sentiment[6] Industrial Profitability - From January to August 2024, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size totaled CNY 46,527.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%[7] - In August 2024, profits of industrial enterprises decreased by 17.8% year-on-year, influenced by high base effects from the previous year[7] - The mining industry saw profits drop by 9.2%, while the manufacturing sector's profits increased by 1.1%[7] Market Trends and Policies - The third quarter of 2024 witnessed a decline in risk appetite, with the ten-year government bond yield dropping to around 2.0%[8] - The People's Bank of China implemented a series of monetary easing measures, including lowering the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates, to enhance market liquidity[8] - The fiscal revenue in August 2024 was CNY 1.2 trillion, with a year-on-year decline of 2.8%, reflecting weak consumption and adjustments in the real estate market[8]

Economic Overview - In Q3 2024, the ten-year government bond yield fell to around 2.0%, marking a new upward trend in medium to long-term government bond futures prices[10] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a series of unexpected monetary easing policies, including a 30 basis point cut in the MLF rate on September 25, 2024[10] - The unemployment rate for urban youth aged 16-24 reached 18.8% in August 2024, an increase of 1.7 percentage points from the previous month, the highest this year[11] Industrial Performance - The industrial added value for large enterprises grew by 4.5% year-on-year in August 2024, with a month-on-month increase of 0.32%[11] - In the first eight months of 2024, real estate development investment totaled 69,284 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 10.2%[11] - The manufacturing sector's PMI data showed a decline, indicating weak recovery in the manufacturing industry[10] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The general public budget revenue in August 2024 was 1.2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 2.8%[10] - The issuance of local government bonds has accelerated, with new special bonds issued in August reaching 58% of the annual target[10] - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds target rate by 50 basis points in September 2024, with expectations for further cuts in the coming months[10] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales of consumer goods in August 2024 totaled 38,726 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.1%[11] - The sales of new commercial housing decreased by 18.0% year-on-year in the first eight months of 2024, with residential sales down by 20.4%[11]

Labor Market - The unemployment rate for the 16-24 age group (excluding students) reached 18.8% in August, a 1.7 percentage point increase from the previous month, marking the highest level this year[6] - The unemployment rate for the 25-29 age group (excluding students) rose to 6.9%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[6] - The overall urban surveyed unemployment rate increased to 5.3% in August, up 0.1 percentage points from July[6] Industrial Production - Industrial added value for large-scale industries grew by 4.5% year-on-year in August, with a month-on-month increase of 0.32%[6] - From January to August, industrial added value increased by 5.8% year-on-year, with manufacturing growing by 4.3% and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply growing by 6.8%[6] - Among 41 major industries, 32 saw year-on-year growth in added value, with notable growth in industries like railway, shipbuilding, aerospace (12.0%) and computer, communication, and electronic equipment manufacturing (11.3%)[6] Real Estate and Investment - National real estate development investment from January to August fell by 10.2% year-on-year, with residential investment dropping by 10.5%[6] - New housing starts decreased by 22.5% year-on-year, with residential new starts down by 23.0%[6] - Sales of new commercial housing fell by 18.0% year-on-year, with residential sales down by 20.4%[6] Consumer Spending - Total retail sales of consumer goods in August reached 3.87 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, with catering revenue growing by 3.3%[6] - From January to August, total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.4% year-on-year, with non-automotive retail sales up by 3.9%[6] GDP and Sector Contributions - GDP growth in Q2 2024 was 4.7% year-on-year, with manufacturing contributing 39.14% to GDP growth[7][9] - The information transmission, software, and IT services sector grew by 10.2% year-on-year, contributing 11.59% to GDP growth[9] - The real estate sector contracted by 4.6% year-on-year, negatively impacting GDP growth by 6.55%[9]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货宏观月报 PMI跌至年内新低 工业企业库存创新高 20240901 作者：黄秀仕 0769-22110802 从业资格号：F03106904 交易咨询号：Z0018307 研究助理：石舒宇 0769-22116880 从业资格号：F03117664 审核：段福林 交易咨询号：Z0015600 卡联期货 8 T 9 2 3 4 7 交通运输 月度观点及策略 银行与货币 国民经济核算 利率汇率 10 工业 就业与工资 11 价格指数 对外贸易与投资 景气调查 12 固定资产投资 美国宏观 13 国内贸易 ( e 月度观点及策略 月度观点 24年8月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.1%（预期49.5%），比上月下降0.3%，制造业景气度小幅回落。 内需依旧疲软，高库存压制生产。具体而言，生产指数为49.8%，比上月下降0.3%，重返收缩区间，企业生产意愿不足，采购量和进口持续 走弱创出新低；新订单指数、新出口订单和在手订单均处于收缩区间，新订单连续四个月环比下行，表明制造业市场需求环比持续放缓，但 外需好于内需；原材料库存和产成品库存分别比上月下降0 ...

Financial Data Trends - China's total social financing (TSF) increased by 18.87 trillion RMB from January to July, down from 18.1 trillion RMB year-on-year, a decrease of 3.22 trillion RMB[6] - M1 money supply decreased by 6.6% in July, while M2 growth improved to 6.3% year-on-year[6] - New RMB loans for July were 2.6 trillion RMB, compared to 2.1 trillion RMB in June, with total new loans from January to July at 13.53 trillion RMB[6] Consumer Spending Insights - Retail sales of consumer goods in July reached 37,757 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 2.7%[6] - Excluding automobiles, retail sales grew by 3.6%, with dining revenue increasing by 3.0%[6] - Service consumption maintained high levels, with travel and leisure services showing strong growth, despite a high base of 20.3% year-on-year in July last year[6] Real Estate Market Analysis - New residential sales prices in first-tier cities fell by 4.2% year-on-year in July, with declines of 3.3%, 9.9%, and 8.0% in Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen respectively[6] - Second and third-tier cities saw new residential prices drop by 4.8% and 5.8% year-on-year, with the decline widening compared to the previous month[6] - Second-hand residential prices in first-tier cities decreased by 8.8% year-on-year, with notable declines in Guangzhou and Shenzhen[6]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货宏观周报 外资直接投资创1 5年来新低 20240825 作者：黄秀仕 0769-22110802 从业资格号：F03106904 交易咨询号：Z0018307 研究助理：石舒宇 0769-22116880 从业资格号：F03117664 审核：段福林 交易咨询号：Z0015600 在联期货 1 周度观点及策略 8 交通运输 9 银行与货币 10 利率汇率 11 就业与工资 12 景气调查 13 美国宏观 2 国民经济核算 3 工业 4 价格指数 ( 对外贸易与投资 e 固定资产投资 7 国内贸易 周度观点及策略 周度观点 商务部数据显示， 2024年1-7月外资对华直接投资32.1%，其中7月加速下降45.1%，创15年以来单月新低。外汇管理局国际收支口径外商对 华直接投资，二季度出现净流出。1-7月中国实际使用外资金额5394.7亿元人民币，同比下降了29.6%。折合759亿美元，同比下降32.1%。 2022年二季度以来，无论是商务部口径实际使用外资，还是国际收支口径外商对华直接投资，流入规模都在显著减少。今年以来，这两种口 径的外来直接投资数据 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货宏观周报 猪价回暖拉动C P I 东盟进出口回落 20240811 作者：黄秀仕 0769-22110802 从业资格号：F03106904 交易咨询号：Z0018307 研究助理：石舒宇 0769-22116880 从业资格号：F03117664 审核：段福林 交易咨询号：Z0015600 在联期货 1 周度观点及策略 8 交通运输 9 银行与货币 10 利率汇率 11 就业与工资 12 景气调查 13 美国宏观 2 国民经济核算 3 工业 4 价格指数 ( 对外贸易与投资 e 固定资产投资 7 国内贸易 周度观点及策略 周度观点 2024年7月份，全国居民消费价格同比上涨0.5%，环比上涨0.5%。1—7月平均，全国居民消费价格比上年同期上涨0.2%。 食品烟酒类价格同比上涨0.2%，影响CPI上涨约0.07个百分点。食品中，畜肉类价格上涨4.9%，影响CPI上涨约0.14个百分点，其中猪肉价格 上涨20.4%，影响CPI上涨约0.24个百分点；鲜菜价格上涨3.3%，影响CPI上涨约0.07个百分点；水产品价格上涨1.2%，影响CPI上涨约0.02 ...