1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of PVC remains weak. The cancellation of export tax rebates will directly increase PVC export costs, but there may be a rush to export before April 1st. There is certain negative sentiment in the short - term, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the impact on supply due to intensified competition among upstream enterprises [8]. - It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading. For the 2605 contract, the reference range is 4700 - 4900, and investors can consider the 3 - 5 positive spread arbitrage opportunity [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PVC Contract Spreads - The 1 - 5 spread of PVC contracts is stable and higher than the same period last year. The 5 - 9 spread is also stable compared to the previous period and higher year - on - year. The overall futures monthly spread structure maintains a contango pattern, with expectations stronger than reality [18]. - The 9 - 1 spread is stable compared to the previous period and lower year - on - year. The basis of the main contract rebounds slightly compared to the previous period but is weaker year - on - year [19]. 3.2 Supply End - In 2025, the new PVC production capacity was 2.2 million tons, with a growth rate close to 8%, and the effective production capacity exceeded 29 million tons. In 2026, only Zhejiang Jiahua's 300,000 - ton new production capacity is planned, and the expansion of PVC production capacity is coming to an end. Last week, PVC output was 487,900 tons, a 0.83% increase from the previous week and a 4.03% increase year - on - year, mainly due to the increased load of some devices [25]. - As of now, the effective production capacity of calcium carbide - based PVC is 20.25 million tons, accounting for about 69.8%. Last week, the output was 343,400 tons, a 1.54% increase from the previous week and the same as the same period last year [28]. - As of now, the effective production capacity of ethylene - based PVC is 8.77 million tons, accounting for about 30.2%. Last week, the output was 144,500 tons, a 0.82% decrease from the previous week and a 14.96% increase year - on - year [32]. - Last week, the upstream PVC operating rate was 79.67%, a 1.04 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 1.33 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year, at a neutral level in the same period. The maintenance loss was 124,500 tons [36]. - Last week, the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 79.71%, a 0.35 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 1.41 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year, at a neutral level in the same period. The operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 79.56%, a 0.27 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 1.12 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year, at a slightly lower - than - neutral level in the same period [39]. - From January to November 2025, the cumulative PVC import volume was 202,100 tons, a 1.46% increase year - on - year. From January to November, the import volume of plastics and their products in China was 17.63 million tons, a 6.32% decrease year - on - year [42]. 3.3 Demand End - From January to November 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption of PVC was 1.901 million tons, a 0.99% decrease year - on - year. Last week, the PVC production and sales rate was 186%, an 18 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 50 - percentage - point increase year - on - year [49]. - Last week, the comprehensive operating rate of downstream PVC products remained at a low level. This is mainly due to the slowdown of construction in winter, the suspension of construction sites in the north, the entry of municipal and infrastructure project demand into the seasonal off - season, and the decrease in demand for pipes due to the sluggish real estate market [53]. - From January to November 2025, the cumulative export volume of PVC powder was 3.51 million tons, a 47% increase year - on - year. The main export destinations were India, Vietnam, Uzbekistan, etc. India cancelled the BIS certification policy for PVC imports in November, and the anti - dumping duty is expected to end, which is favorable for domestic PVC exports in the long run [61]. - From January to November 2025, the cumulative export volume of Chinese PVC flooring materials was 3.7852 million tons, an 11.02% decrease year - on - year. The main destinations were Europe and the United States. Affected by trade frictions and weak external demand, the export of products continued to shrink [63]. 3.4 Inventory - Last week, the domestic PVC social inventory (41 companies) was 1.1141 million tons, a 3.47% increase from the previous week and a 44.71% increase year - on - year. The enterprise inventory was 328,200 tons, a 6.14% increase from the previous week and a 27.36% increase year - on - year. Both social and enterprise inventories increased [69][76]. 3.5 Valuation - Last week, the price of semi - coke was stable compared to the previous period and at the lowest level in the same period over the years. The price of calcium carbide rebounded slightly compared to the previous period, with the mainstream price in Wuhai area reported at 2,400 yuan/ton [80]. - Last week, the price of ethylene was weakly stable and at the lowest level in the same period over the years. The price of vinyl chloride was weakly stable compared to the previous period and at the lowest level in the same period over the years [84]. - The price of liquid caustic soda decreased slightly compared to the previous period and was at the lowest level in the same period over the years. The price of liquid chlorine first increased and then decreased, and was higher year - on - year [88]. - Last week, the loss of externally purchased calcium carbide - based PVC production decreased slightly but was still at a low level in the same period. The loss of ethylene - based PVC also decreased, and the year - on - year loss decreased [91]. - Last week, the production profit of Shandong chlor - alkali increased slightly compared to the previous period but decreased year - on - year [95].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The inflection point of the long - term supply cycle has arrived. On the demand side, interest rate cuts support demand, policies and replacement cycles are beneficial for heavy - truck demand, while the real estate sector is the main drag. The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the current valuation is not high. Inflation and the inflection point of the production - capacity cycle have raised the lower limit. It is predicted that the center of the rubber price will increase. Investors are advised to buy at an appropriate time, with the reference trading range of ru being 14,000 - 18,000 yuan/ton, and the short - to - medium - term support for nr being 12,400 - 12,600. The position of the arbitrage strategy of going long on ru and short on nr should be reduced [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - environment - There are policy expectations for the real estate market, which is yet to stabilize. Domestically, there is a trend of anti - involution. Externally, the Fed's interest rate cuts are beneficial for the capital market, but the spill - over effect of a potential U.S. recession should be guarded against. The U.S. aims to increase its GDP to $40 trillion by 2030, implying an average annual nominal GDP growth rate of about 5.5% in the next five years, which will be supported by inflation [6]. 3.2 Supply - The long - term inflection point has arrived. Raw materials are prone to price increases and difficult to decline. Rubber farmers' inventories were cleared at a high level in 2024 - 2025. High prices will stimulate output with high elasticity, while low prices may lead to inaction or hoarding. Price has the greatest impact on output, followed by weather. The strength of raw materials and basis reflects the current market strength, but the weak spread between latex and cup lump reflects the relative weakness. The enthusiasm for rubber tapping is acceptable at the current price. This year's natural rubber growing areas have average weather conditions with more rainfall, and there were floods in southern Thailand in November, making raw materials relatively firm, but the processing sector is in the red. The global production is expected to increase by 0.75% this year. Crude oil is relatively sluggish, synthetic rubber is at a medium - low level relative to crude oil, and natural rubber is relatively high compared to synthetic rubber. The substitution space of synthetic rubber for natural rubber is approaching the top [6]. 3.3 Inventory - Qingdao's inventory is around the median level, having increased significantly compared to 2016, and the inventory - to - sales ratio is not low. However, considering the significant increase in imports this year and the high proportion of exports from producing areas to China, the inventory is not considered high overall, with a neutral evaluation. Attention should be paid to the seasonal peak of inventory accumulation. Due to the diversion of concentrated latex and production - capacity issues in Thailand, Vietnam, and China, the output of full - latex rubber is squeezed, and the exchange warehouse receipts are at a ten - year low. The inventory of butadiene rubber is relatively high. The inventory of full - steel truck tires is lower than last year; the inventory of semi - steel tires is marginally decreasing from a high level, but considering the market expansion, it is evaluated as neutral [6]. 3.4 Demand - In 2025, real estate data continued to deteriorate, dragging down the market. The current new construction area is less than one - third of the peak. Given the long real - estate cycle and the unfavorable population situation, it will take time for a turnaround. Affected by the sharp decline in physical construction work in the real - estate sector, the recovery of road freight volume is difficult. It caught up with the 2019 level in 2024 and continued to grow in 2025. However, heavy - truck sales are still supported by policies and replacement cycles. Domestic passenger - car sales (including exports) performed well under policy stimulus, domestic substitution, and overseas market penetration, but the marginal growth rate has shown signs of fatigue. Overseas automobile sales are oscillating weakly, and overseas markets rely more on tire replacement demand. The Fed's interest rate cuts are conducive to stimulating demand. Rubber demand follows the macro - environment, and it is expected that the global demand will grow by about 2% in 2026 [6]. 3.5 Strategy - The supply - side long - term inflection point has arrived. On the demand side, interest - rate cuts support demand, and policies and replacement cycles are beneficial for heavy - truck demand, with real estate being the main drag. The supply - demand contradiction is not large, and the current valuation is not high. Inflation and the inflection point of the production - capacity cycle have raised the lower limit. It is predicted that the center of the rubber price will increase. Investors should buy at an appropriate time, with the reference trading range of ru being 14,000 - 18,000 yuan/ton, and the short - to - medium - term support for nr being 12,400 - 12,600. The position of the arbitrage strategy of going long on ru and short on nr should be reduced [6].

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货饲料周报 关注下周的U S D A报告 豆菜粕短期或宽幅震荡 20260111 邓丹 交易咨询号：Z0011401 从业资格号：F0300922 0769-22111252 审核：萧勇辉 从业资格号：F03091536 交易咨询号：Z0019917 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 基本面观点 ◆ 在南美新作丰产的预期下，预计豆菜粕短期或宽幅震荡为主。关注下周一晚将公布的USDA报告。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 ◆ 美豆方面，暂无可炒作的题材。 ◆ 南美方面，南美巴西主产区近期都有不错的降雨，有利 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, silver showed high - level fluctuations. London silver once fell below the 10 - day moving average during the week, then stabilized on Friday and tested the $80 mark, eventually closing at $79.9. The Shanghai silver main contract closed at 19,438 yuan/kg in the night session on Saturday morning. The weekly gains of London silver and Shanghai silver were both 9.7%, and the cumulative gains in 2025 were 148% and 129% respectively [8]. - The US manufacturing PMI in December was 47.9, lower than expected. The number of non - farm payrolls in December increased by 50,000, lower than expected, and the data of the previous two months was significantly revised downward, but the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4% [8]. - The US CPI in November increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than expected, and the core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year, the slowest growth rate since early 2021, strengthening the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut [8]. - Last week, the yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond decreased by 1 basis point, and the US dollar index continued to rebound slightly [8]. - In 2025, the global silver market's supply - demand gap is expected to exceed 100 million ounces, and the market is in a supply shortage state for the fifth consecutive year. The inventory of LBMA has dropped to a historical low, and the tradable silver inventory is tight [8]. - The silver market is expected to remain strong in the medium and long term under the triple - drive of strategic resources, financial attributes, and industrial attributes. It is recommended to hold the AG2604 long position in the medium term [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Viewpoints and Strategies - **Silver Trends**: London silver and Shanghai silver had significant weekly and cumulative gains in 2025. London silver showed high - level fluctuations and finally closed at $79.9, while Shanghai silver closed at 19,438 yuan/kg [8]. - **US Economy**: The manufacturing PMI was weak, non - farm payrolls were lower than expected with previous data revisions, but the unemployment rate dropped [8]. - **Inflation**: US CPI and core CPI in November were lower than expected, strengthening the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut [8]. - **Interest Rates**: The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield decreased by 1 basis point, and the US dollar index rebounded slightly [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: There is a large supply - demand gap in the silver market, and the tradable inventory is tight. The position of the largest silver ETF decreased week - on - week [8]. - **Spreads**: The spread between domestic and foreign silver futures reached a high of 1,762 yuan and finally closed at 820 yuan, and the gold - silver ratio in London spot reached 56.43 [8]. - **Viewpoint and Strategy**: The silver market is expected to be strong in the medium and long term, and it is recommended to hold the AG2604 long position [9]. Futures and Spot Markets - Multiple charts show the trends of COMEX silver futures, London silver spot, Shanghai Futures Exchange silver futures, and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver [13][17]. US Economy - Charts present data on US GDP, PMI, non - farm payrolls, and unemployment rate [24][25]. Inflation - Charts display US CPI/PCE and core CPI/PCE data [30]. Interest Rates - Charts show short - term and medium - long - term US Treasury bond yields and real interest rates [37][41]. Fundamentals - A table shows the global silver supply - demand balance sheet from 2016 to 2025F, including supply (mining production, recycling, etc.) and demand (industrial, jewelry, etc.) [45]. - Charts show silver ETF positions, COMEX, LBMA, Shanghai Futures Exchange, and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventories [46][49][53]. US Dollar Index and Exchange Rates - Charts show the US dollar index, US dollar - RMB exchange rate, and other exchange rates such as pound - US dollar and US dollar - Canadian dollar [59][62][67]. Silver Spreads - Charts show the trends of domestic and foreign silver futures, spreads between domestic and foreign silver, silver basis, and gold - silver ratio [76][84][89].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Long - term outlook for the oils and fats market is expected to be oscillating with an upward bias, mainly due to the expectation of Indonesia implementing B50 [5][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental View - **Soybean oil**: South American Brazil's main producing areas have had good rainfall recently, beneficial for the growth of sown soybeans. Argentina's core producing areas may have less or average rainfall in the next two weeks, which requires close attention [6]. - **Palm oil**: MPOA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in December decreased by 4.64% month - on - month. With weak export data in December, its inventory in December is expected to exceed 3 million tons. Indonesia may confiscate 4 - 5 million hectares of palm oil plantations this year, and concerns about management and the B50 plan may push up palm oil prices in the long run [6]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The market is watching whether the issues of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed oil tariffs can be resolved when the Canadian Prime Minister visits China next week [6]. 3.2 Strategy View and Outlook - **Unilateral trading**: For palm oil 05, the support level is recommended to be around 8,200 - 8,300. For options, it is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Outlook**: Key factors to watch include national biodiesel policies, Southeast Asian palm oil production and exports, China's rapeseed import policy, and crude oil prices [10]. 3.3 Spot and Futures Market - Last week, the oils and fats market was oscillating and strengthening, mainly due to market speculation about Indonesia's B50 policy and the expectation of an increase in Indonesia's palm oil export tax [22]. - For the price differences between varieties: - The soybean - palm oil price difference is fluctuating widely, and it is recommended to wait and see. - The rapeseed - palm oil price difference is oscillating weakly, and it is recommended to wait and see. - The rapeseed - soybean oil price difference is fluctuating widely, and it is recommended to wait and see [27]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Malaysian palm oil**: The November MPOB report shows that Malaysia's crude palm oil production in November decreased by 5.30% to 1.9355 million tons, consumption increased by 31.84% to 0.3718 million tons, exports decreased by 28.13% to 1.2128 million tons, and the inventory at the end of November increased by 13.04% to 2.8354 million tons, which was bearish for palm oil prices [44]. - **Domestic soybean and soybean oil**: Data shows the trends of China's soybean imports, soybean oil imports, port inventories, and soybean crushing volumes over the years [46][47][48]. - **Domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil**: Data shows the trends of China's rapeseed imports, rapeseed oil imports, port inventories, and rapeseed crushing volumes over the years [55][57][58]. - **Domestic palm oil**: Data shows the trends of China's palm oil imports over the years [65][67]. 3.5 Demand Side - Data shows the trading volumes of domestic soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, and the total trading volume of the three major oils and fats over the years [70][74][76]. 3.6 Inventory - As of January 2, 2026, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.081 million tons, a decrease of 0.008 million tons (0.73%) from the previous week and an increase of 0.1485 million tons (15.92%) year - on - year. The commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 0.7338 million tons, a decrease of 0.0003 million tons (0.04%) from the previous week and an increase of 0.2321 million tons (46.26%) year - on - year [82]. - As of January 2, 2026, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal main oil mills was 0.003 million tons, a decrease of 0.001 million tons from the previous week; the rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 0.267 million tons, a decrease of 0.014 million tons from the previous week; the total rapeseed oil inventory in major national regions was 0.27 million tons, a decrease of 0.015 million tons from the previous week [86]. 3.7 Futures Import Profit - As of January 9, 2026, the futures import profit of 24 - degree palm oil for the February shipment was - 121 yuan/ton [92].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current pig market is in a situation of loose supply and demand, with pig prices fluctuating narrowly within a range. The overall supply - side pressure remains high, the progress of capacity reduction is slow, and the pattern of weak supply and demand remains unchanged, so pig prices lack the driving force for continuous upward movement. After a phased rebound, pig prices are expected to continue to be weakly adjusted. The industry is in a key game period between short - term price pressure and long - term capacity clearance, and the long - term supply pressure is difficult to fundamentally ease. The domestic total pork consumption shows a steady downward trend, and the short - term spot market of live pigs may continue to be weakly volatile, while the futures market will decline weakly to repair the basis [10][13]. 3. Summary According to Different Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Views and Strategies 3.1.1 Fundamental Views - Spot: The weekly average price of live pig spot was 11.44 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17%, and a year - on - year decrease of 25.67%. The demand for curing and pickling has increased, but the slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises has not increased significantly, and the overall demand pull is limited. Although the scale enterprises' slaughter rhythm is normal, the market sentiment of bullishness has increased, and a small amount of second - fattening has entered the market, supporting the phased rebound of prices. However, the overall supply - side pressure remains high, the progress of capacity reduction is slow, and the pattern of weak supply and demand remains unchanged [10][22]. - Capacity: In October 2025, the inventory of fertile sows was 39.9 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1%, falling below 40 million again. Although the capacity regulation has achieved initial results, the inventory of fertile sows is still in the green and reasonable area of capacity regulation, which does not mean the start of a new cycle of soaring pig prices. The production efficiency of the pig - breeding industry has increased significantly, and the cycle of capacity reduction has been continuously lengthened. It is expected that the lowest price point of this cycle will be in the first quarter of 2026 [10]. 3.1.2 Strategy Views and Outlook - Outlook: The industry is in a key game period between short - term price pressure and long - term capacity clearance. The supply of commercial pigs is expected to continue to grow until the first half of 2026, and the long - term supply pressure is difficult to fundamentally ease. The domestic total pork consumption shows a steady downward trend. The short - term spot market of live pigs may continue to be weakly volatile, and the futures market will decline weakly to repair the basis. Although the traditional consumption demand in winter may boost the market, it is difficult to change the pattern of supply growth exceeding demand growth. In December, scale enterprises may accelerate the slaughter, increasing the supply pressure [13]. - Strategy: The pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the national live pig market is difficult to reverse in the short term. The main contract will fluctuate widely at a low level, with a reference range of 11,000 - 12,000. For options, out - of - the - money put options can be sold [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Spot price: The weekly average price of live pig spot was 11.44 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17%, and a year - on - year decrease of 25.67%. The demand for curing and pickling has increased, but the slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises has not increased significantly. The supply - side pressure remains high, and the pattern of weak supply and demand remains unchanged [22]. - Spot - futures basis: Not specifically analyzed in detail in the content - Futures spread: Not specifically analyzed in detail in the content - Standard - fat price: The standard - fat spread this week was - 0.61 yuan/kg, widening by 0.13 yuan/kg compared with last week, mainly due to the strengthening of the fat pig price dominated by seasonal demand [40]. - Piglet and binary sow price: The weekly average price of 7 - kg piglets nationwide this week was 217.38 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 1.19 yuan/head, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54%, and a year - on - year decrease of 40.87%. The current national piglet profit is about a loss of 50 yuan/head [45]. - Culled sow price: The price of culled sows still sells at a 60% - 80% discount. It follows the narrow - range adjustment of live pig prices. It is expected that the price of culled sows of multiple parities may fluctuate and adjust [48]. 3.3 Capacity - Inventory of fertile sows: In October 2025, the inventory of fertile sows was 39.9 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1%. According to the statistics of 208 fixed - point sample enterprises by Mysteel Agricultural Products, in November, the inventory of fertile sows in 123 large - scale farms was 5.0294 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.37% and a year - on - year increase of 0.07%; in 85 small and medium - sized farms, the inventory was 169,680, a month - on - month decrease of 0.78% and a year - on - year increase of 0.78%. It is expected that the inventory of fertile sows in China may still slightly decrease in December [53][57]. - Culling volume of fertile sows: In November, the culling volume of fertile sows in 123 large - scale farms was 112,378, a month - on - month increase of 5.05% and a year - on - year increase of 14.63%; in 85 small and medium - sized farms, the culling volume was 11,605, a month - on - month increase of 1.38% and a year - on - year increase of 29.36%. It is expected that the culling of fertile sows may still increase in December [60]. 3.4 Supply Side - Inventory of commercial pigs: In November, the inventory of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms was 37.0059 million, a month - on - month increase of 0.32% and a year - on - year increase of 5.28%; in 85 small and medium - sized farms, the inventory was 1.5573 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.07% and a year - on - year increase of 6.94%. It is expected that the inventory of commercial pigs may increase month - on - month in December [68]. - Slaughter volume of commercial pigs: In November, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms was 11.3649 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.65% and a year - on - year increase of 15.59%; in 85 small and medium - sized farms, the slaughter volume was 515,100, a month - on - month decrease of 2.03% and a year - on - year increase of 29.75%. It is expected that the slaughter volume of the breeding end may still increase in December [71]. - Slaughter average weight of commercial pigs: As the standard - fat spread widened this week, farmers' intention to slaughter standard pigs decreased, and the proportion of large - pig supply increased, but the overall slaughter volume was limited. The average weight of large - scale farms decreased slightly [78]. 3.5 Demand Side - Slaughter volume of live pigs: In December 2025, as the peak season of curing and pickling approached, the temperature in the northern region began to drop, and the white - strip price was running at a relatively low level during the year. The terminal sales improved slightly, and the slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises increased slightly, with an expected increase of 20% [83]. - Cold storage capacity rate of slaughtering enterprises: The cold storage capacity rate was about 18.31%. The consumption improved month - on - month, but slaughtering enterprises faced difficulties in destocking frozen products. The overall frozen product dumping intensity was limited, and the inventory changed little. It is expected that the fresh - sales rate may continue to rise slightly in the near future [90]. - Operating rate and fresh - sales rate of slaughtering enterprises: Affected by the winter solstice stocking last weekend, the enterprise operating rate increased, but after the winter solstice, the market demand declined, and the operating rate decreased slightly. Next week is the New Year's Day holiday, which may support the consumption end, and the weekly average operating rate will maintain a volatile upward trend. The fresh - sales rate decreased slightly, and the cold storage capacity rate increased slightly [91]. - Substitute price: Not specifically analyzed in detail in the content 3.6 Cost and Profit - Pig - breeding and slaughtering profit: This week, the overall loss of the domestic pig - breeding industry narrowed slightly. The average loss per head in the self - breeding and self - raising mode was 66.57 yuan, and the average loss per head in the mode of purchasing piglets was still 223.82 yuan. In the short term, the pig price is expected to continue to rebound next week, and the breeding profit may be slightly repaired, but the long - term profitability pressure will still continue [102]. - Slaughter gross profit and feed - to - meat ratio: Not specifically analyzed in detail in the content - Pig - grain ratio: This week, the pig - grain ratio was 4.97, a month - on - month increase of 0.26%. The pig price rose slightly after a decline, and the corn price was weakly volatile. The market is still in a loss state and is adjusted in the third - level early - warning range of excessive decline. It is expected that the domestic pig - grain ratio may continue to rise slightly next week [109].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Soda Ash**: Recent supply and inventory pressure relief support the market, but the overall supply-demand surplus pattern remains unchanged. Supply and inventory are still at high levels. In the medium to long term, it is recommended to trade with a short bias on rebounds. The 2605 contract is expected to trade in the range of 1120 - 1220 [8]. - **Glass**: The supply decreased slightly last week, and the manufacturer's inventory increased slightly. The continuous contraction of glass enterprise profits may lead to cold repairs in some production lines, which will support the market rebound. However, the positive impact of cold repairs is limited under high inventory. In the later stage, the downstream rush - to - work demand will weaken in the off - season, and the market will continue the pattern of weak supply and demand. The 2605 contract is expected to trade in the range of 1010 - 1080 [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly Views and Strategies - **Soda Ash** - **Inventory**: As of December 25, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.4385 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16,400 tons or 1.13%. Some delivery warehouses saw a decrease in inventory, while others changed little [8]. - **Supply**: The weekly domestic soda ash production was 711,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9,600 tons or 1.32%. Light soda ash production was 326,300 tons, and heavy soda ash production was 385,500 tons, both decreasing by 4,800 tons week - on - week. Supply decreased due to enterprise maintenance or short - term equipment shutdowns [8]. - **Demand**: The weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 77,260 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.85%. The overall shipment rate was 108.54%, a week - on - week increase of 9.23 percentage points [8]. - **Glass** - **Inventory**: As of December 25, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 58.623 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 65,000 heavy boxes or 0.11%, and a year - on - year increase of 29.63%. The inventory days were 26.5 days, the same as the previous period [11]. - **Supply**: From December 19 - 25, 2025, the average operating rate of the float glass industry was 73.89%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate was 77.42%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.14 percentage points. The national float glass production was 1.084 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.17% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.06% [11]. - **Profit**: From December 19 - 25, 2025, the weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 186.40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton; using coal - made gas was - 21.88 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 14.26 yuan/ton; using petroleum coke was - 7.21 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 7.14 yuan/ton [11]. - **Demand**: As of December 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 9.7 days, a week - on - week decrease of 4.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.6% [11]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Structure - **Soda Ash**: Upstream includes natural soda mines, raw salt, synthetic ammonia, raw salt, limestone, and ammonium chloride. Soda ash (light/heavy) is in the middle, and downstream products include agricultural fertilizers, glass, and daily detergents [14]. - **Flat Glass**: Upstream raw materials are quartz sand, limestone, soda ash, and auxiliary materials. Fuels include natural gas (40%), coal - made gas (24%), and petroleum coke (16%). Float glass and other types are in the middle, and downstream applications are mainly in real estate (75%), automotive (18%), and electronics and electrical (7%) [16]. 3.3 Spot and Futures Markets - **Prices**: As of December 26, 2025, the FG main contract closed at 1057, and the North China basis closed at - 47 yuan/ton; the SA main contract closed at 1200, and the North China basis closed at 100 yuan/ton [23][26]. - **Contract Spreads**: As of December 26, 2025, the FG5 - 9 spread closed at - 103 yuan/ton; the SA5 - 9 spread closed at - 58 yuan/ton [30]. 3.4 Inventory - **Glass**: As of December 25, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 58.623 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 65,000 heavy boxes or 0.11%, and a year - on - year increase of 29.63%. Inventory days were 26.5 days, unchanged from the previous period. Inventory changes in different regions varied, with South China decreasing by 3.36% week - on - week, Central China increasing by 2.85%, North China increasing by 3.93%, and East China decreasing by 3.06% [35][41][44]. - **Soda Ash**: As of December 25, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.4385 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16,400 tons or 1.13%. Some delivery warehouses saw a decrease in inventory [47]. 3.5 Supply - **Glass**: From December 19 - 25, 2025, the average operating rate of the float glass industry was 73.89%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate was 77.42%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.14 percentage points. The national float glass production was 1.084 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.17% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.06%. Profits of glass enterprises using different fuels all decreased [52][53]. - **Soda Ash**: As of December 25, 2025, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 711,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9,600 tons or 1.32%. Light soda ash production was 326,300 tons, and heavy soda ash production was 385,500 tons, both decreasing by 4,800 tons week - on - week. The theoretical profit of ammonia - soda process soda ash increased by 13.94% week - on - week, and that of the combined - soda process (double - ton) increased by 50% week - on - week [60][61]. 3.6 Demand - **Glass**: As of December 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 9.7 days, a week - on - week decrease of 4.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.6%. Order changes varied in different regions [66]. - **Soda Ash**: As of December 25, 2025, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 77,260 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.85%. The overall shipment rate was 108.54%, a week - on - week increase of 9.23 percentage points [81].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The egg market in 2025 shows significant supply - demand imbalance, with high inventory of laying hens, young age structure, slow old - hen culling, limited demand, and over - capacity throughout the year. Egg prices have bottomed out multiple times, and farmers are under great pressure and may accelerate the culling of old hens. In December, as the inventory of laying hens decreases and holiday stocking demand starts, the market is shifting from loose to tight - balance, but the upward space of egg prices is still restricted by substitute prices and terminal consumption. Mid - to long - term capacity reduction will dominate the probability of market reversal [8][9] - The strategy is that the main contract continues to fluctuate widely at a low level, with the pressure level referring to 2980 - 3000; mid - term, long positions in far - month contracts can be arranged, and call options can be bought with a light position [9] 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly View and Strategy - The national egg spot price continued to fluctuate narrowly within the range this week. The average price in the main producing areas was 2.91 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/jin from last week, a decline of 0.34%. As the egg price rises to the current level, the market trading has become cautious again, and the egg price may fall at the end of the month. In November 2025, the inventory of laying hens was about 1.307 billion, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.31%. It is expected that the inventory in December will still decline but remain at a high level in the past five - year average. The egg market is expected to shift from loose to tight - balance, and the egg price will be supported by fundamentals, but the upward space is restricted [8][9] - The strategy is to refer to the pressure level of 2980 - 3000 for the main contract, and arrange long positions in far - month contracts and buy call options with a light position in the mid - term [9] 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - Spot: The national egg spot price continued to fluctuate narrowly. The average price in the main producing areas was 2.91 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/jin from last week, a decline of 0.34%. The price increase has weakened, and there may be a decline at the end of the month [8][20] 3.3 Supply - side - Inventory of laying hens: In November 2025, the national inventory of laying hens was about 1.307 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.31% and a year - on - year increase of 8.46%. It is expected that the inventory in December will still decline but remain at a high level in the past five - year average [8][33] - Chicken - chick replenishment: The average price of commercial chicken chicks in key regions this week was 2.71 yuan/feather, a month - on - month increase of 0.37% and a year - on - year decrease of 39.10%. The market showed a small rebound, and the replenishment enthusiasm of some breeding units was stimulated, but the overall replenishment sentiment was still divided [38] - Culling of old hens: The egg price is weak, and the supply of old hens in November increased month - on - month. The culling enthusiasm of breeding units increased, and the market was in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the price continued to be under pressure [40] 3.4 Demand - side - Egg demand shows seasonal characteristics. The price usually reaches the lowest level around April, the highest level in the first half of the year at the end of May, and the highest level in the year from September to mid - October. After that, the price declines and stabilizes from November to December [65] 3.5 Cost and Profit - Feed price: The cost of egg production is mainly affected by the prices of corn and soybean meal. In 2026, the annual average price of corn may slightly decrease, and the average price center of soybean meal may also decline slightly. Although the feed cost is expected to decrease by 1% - 2%, the overall cost of the industry is generally above 3.5 yuan/jin [71][75] - Breeding profit: This week, the cost per jin of eggs was 3.51 yuan/jin, a month - on - month decrease of 0.28%. The profit was - 0.52 yuan/jin, a month - on - month decrease of 15.56%. The breeding cost per chicken was 132.43 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 0.32%, and the breeding profit was 8.50 yuan per chicken, a month - on - month decrease of 38.66% [84]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, Shanghai tin prices rose first and then fell. On December 25, 2025, the spot price of Mysteel's comprehensive 1 tin was 332,750 yuan/ton, with large price fluctuations and significant changes in the basis [13]. - In November, the production of refined tin was 15,490 tons, returning to normal levels both month - on - month and year - on - year. The cumulative domestic tin ore production from January to September was 56,500 tons, showing a slight year - on - year increase. The resumption of production in Myanmar's mining sector has affected price ranges. In November, Indonesia's exports returned to normal, with an export volume of 7,458.64 tons, a 25.59% year - on - year increase and a 182% month - on - month increase [13]. - In November, the demand for integrated circuits, automobiles, and PVC maintained good growth, while the demand in traditional sectors such as computers and some white goods slowed down. It is expected that the demand in emerging sectors will remain resilient in December, while the demand in some traditional sectors will be adjusted. Recently, industry associations have called on market participants to remain rational and cautious [13]. - The mining end remains tight, and processing fees continue to decline weakly. Overall, profits will remain low under the influence of mining end disturbances [13]. - LME, SHFE, and social inventories all increased slightly on a weekly basis [13]. - Due to insufficient supply, the domestic economy remains resilient, and the semiconductor and automotive industries are generally on an upward trend. There is still high uncertainty overseas, and there is an expectation of interest rate cuts in the later period. The futures price remains strong, but high prices are expected to suppress demand and stimulate supply. Industry associations have called on market participants to remain rational and cautious. It is recommended to hold long positions with a light position, and those with heavy positions can appropriately reduce their positions. The reference support level has been raised to around 313,000 - 315,000 yuan/ton. Long positions can buy put options for protection. In the later period, focus on the implementation of macro - measures, the disturbances of Myanmar and Congo mines, Indonesia's export speed, and the verification of consumption data [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly View and Strategy - **Market Conditions**: Shanghai tin prices rose first and then fell last week. On December 25, 2025, the spot price of Mysteel's comprehensive 1 tin was 332,750 yuan/ton, with large price fluctuations and significant changes in the basis [13]. - **Supply**: In November, refined tin production was 15,490 tons, returning to normal. The cumulative domestic tin ore production from January to September was 56,500 tons, showing a slight year - on - year increase. Myanmar's mining production resumption has affected price ranges. In November, Indonesia's refined tin exports were 7,458.64 tons, a 25.59% year - on - year increase and a 182% month - on - month increase [13]. - **Demand**: In November, the demand for integrated circuits, automobiles, and PVC maintained good growth, while traditional sectors such as computers and some white goods slowed down. It is expected that emerging sectors will maintain demand resilience in December, while some traditional sectors will adjust. Industry associations have called on market participants to remain rational [13]. - **Cost and Profit**: The mining end is tight, and processing fees are declining weakly. Profits will remain low [13]. - **Inventory**: LME, SHFE, and social inventories all increased slightly on a weekly basis [13]. - **Strategy**: Hold long positions with a light position, and those with heavy positions can appropriately reduce their positions. The reference support level is around 313,000 - 315,000 yuan/ton. Long positions can buy put options for protection. Focus on macro - measures, mine disturbances, Indonesia's export speed, and consumption data [13]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Structure No specific content provided other than the title. 3.3 Futures and Spot Market No specific content provided other than the title and related charts. 3.4 Inventory - As of December 24, 2025, SHFE inventory was 8,331 tons, with a slight weekly increase. As of December 23, 2025, LME total inventory was 4,895 tons, with a slight weekly increase. As of December 19, 2025, the refined tin social inventory was 10,181 tons, with a slight weekly increase [30][34]. 3.5 Cost and Profit As of December 18, 2025, the processing fee for Yunnan concentrate was 11,000 yuan/ton, and that for Guangxi concentrate was 7,000 yuan/ton. Processing fees continued to be weak [39]. 3.6 Supply - In November 2025, refined tin production was 15,490 tons, returning to normal supply. In September, domestic tin ore production was 6,263.28 tons, with a slight month - on - month decrease [45]. - In November 2025, the capacity utilization rate of tin enterprises was about 66.5%, returning to normal [50]. 3.7 Demand - In November 2025, China's automobile production was 3.519 million vehicles, a 2.4% year - on - year increase; the production of electronic computers was 29.028 million units, a 1.4% year - on - year decrease [57]. - In November 2025, China's PVC production was 2.07926 million tons, a 3.1% year - on - year increase; the production of mobile electronic communications was 142.35 million units, an 11.6% year - on - year decrease [62]. - In November 2025, China's air - conditioner production was 1.5026 million units, a 23.4% year - on - year decrease; the cumulative refrigerator production was 9.442 million units, a 5.6% year - on - year increase [67]. - In November 2025, China's washing machine production was 12.013 million units, a 5.5% year - on - year increase; the production of color televisions was 17.449 million units, a 5% year - on - year decrease [72]. - In November 2025, China's solar energy production was 73.49 million kilowatts, a 7.8% year - on - year increase; the production of integrated circuits was 43.9 million pieces, a 15.6% year - on - year increase [76]. 3.8 Import and Export In November 2025, China imported 15,000 tons of tin ore, with a significant month - on - month increase; imported 1,194 tons of tin ingots; and exported 2,045 tons of refined tin and alloys [80]. 3.9 Supply - Demand Table | Year/(10,000 tons) | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | China's Production | 18.1 | 15.9 | 18 | 19.8 | 17.9 | 17.4 | 18.1 | 18.45 | 18.67 | | Overseas Production | 17.7 | 19.5 | 14.8 | 15.3 | 20.1 | 19.2 | 17.1 | 17.5 | 19.3 | | Global Supply | 35.8 | 35.4 | 32.8 | 35.1 | 38 | 36.6 | 35.2 | 35.95 | 37.97 | | China's Demand | 14.9 | 14 | 16.4 | 18.4 | 18.1 | 18.75 | 19.1 | 19.3 | 19.87 | | Overseas Demand | 22.3 | 21.9 | 18.8 | 20.5 | 19.9 | 18.2 | 18.1 | 18.7 | 19.15 | | Global Demand | 37.2 | 35.9 | 35.2 | 38.9 | 38 | 36.95 | 37.2 | 38 | 39.02 | | Global Supply - Demand Balance | - 1.4 | - 0.5 | - 2.4 | - 3.8 | 0.05 | - 0.35 | - 2 | - 2.05 | - 1.05 | [83]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US economy shows resilience, and the market generally expects that after the replacement of the Fed Chairman, a relatively loose monetary policy will be adopted, pushing up the prices of precious metals and non - ferrous metals. The structural contradiction of supply falling short of demand between the copper mine supply end and the electrolytic copper smelting end is prominent, and the copper smelting end may continue to be under pressure. It is expected that the global copper production growth rate will be limited next year. Although the traditional power distribution copper demand accounts for the largest proportion, the copper consumption in emerging fields such as new energy power generation is growing rapidly. The upgrade of global power grid and other infrastructure in the future may support copper demand, and the incremental copper demand in new energy power generation and other industries is promising. The Shanghai copper futures have broken through the 100,000 - yuan/ton mark, and the market is expected to remain strong around New Year's Day [7]. - The recommended strategy is to continue to hold medium - term long positions, conduct short - term rolling long operations, and the medium - term support range for Shanghai copper 2603 is 95,000 - 96,000 yuan/ton [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Views and Strategies - **Macro**: The US economy shows resilience, with the real GDP in the third quarter growing by 4.3%, the fastest in two years. The market expects a more relaxed monetary policy after the change of the Fed Chairman [7]. - **Supply**: The 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark is set at $0/ton and $0/lb, significantly lower than that in 2025. In 2025, due to various disturbances, the annual mine - end production guidance has been revised down by over 500,000 tons, and the copper concentrate supply in 2025 is expected to be basically the same as in 2024. The supply - demand contradiction between the copper mine supply end and the smelting end is prominent [7]. - **Demand**: The traditional power distribution copper demand accounts for about 28%. The copper consumption in new energy power generation and other emerging industries is growing rapidly. In 2024, the copper demand from clean energy reached 7.737 million tons, a 28.9% increase from 2021. The future infrastructure upgrade may support copper demand [7]. - **Inventory**: Due to the rise in copper prices affecting downstream procurement, the domestic social inventory and SHFE inventory have rebounded rapidly in the short term [7]. - **Strategy**: Continue to hold medium - term long positions, conduct short - term rolling long operations, and the medium - term support range for Shanghai copper 2603 is 95,000 - 96,000 yuan/ton [6]. 2. Spot and Futures Markets - The report presents figures on domestic spot and futures prices, Shanghai flat - water copper premiums and discounts, LME copper prices, and the Shanghai - London copper price ratio, but no specific analysis content is provided [11][13] 3. Supply and Inventory - **Global Copper Mine Capital Expenditure and New Discoveries**: Global copper exploration investment has fluctuated greatly. Since 2015, the discovery of high - grade copper mines has decreased year by year, and new large - scale copper mines are in areas with poor geological conditions or political instability [20]. - **Global Copper Mine and Refined Copper Production Distribution**: In 2024, Chile accounted for 23% of global copper mine production, and China accounted for 45% of global refined copper production [23][25]. - **Copper Concentrate Processing Fee TC and Global Copper Mine Production**: As of December 26, 2025, the comprehensive TC price of 26% clean copper concentrate was - $44.70/ton, and the spot price was $3,291/ton. The current spot processing fee is far below the break - even point. In 2025, the global copper concentrate production showed a certain trend [30]. - **2026 Global Newly Expanded and Interrupted Copper Mine Output Increment**: The total incremental output in 2026 is expected to be 533,000 tons, but the actual growth rate may be less than 1.5%. It is estimated that the overseas new - added capacity from 2025 - 2026 will be 620,000 tons [32][33]. - **Copper Concentrate Import and Inventory**: In November 2025, China's copper concentrate imports were 2.5262 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.13%. As of the 52nd week of 2025, the port inventory of imported copper concentrate was 680,000 tons [36]. - **Global and Chinese Electrolytic Copper Production**: In October 2025, the global refined copper production was 2.2419 million tons, with a supply shortage of 1,400 tons. In the same month, China's refined copper production was 1.204 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% [41]. - **Chinese Electrolytic Copper Import and Export Volume**: In November 2025, China's refined copper imports were 304,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23.47%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative exports were 681,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 49.33% [43]. - **Chinese Scrap Copper Import and Premium - Discount Difference**: From January to November 2025, China's cumulative scrap copper imports were 2.104 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. As of December 26, 2025, the premium - discount difference in the Guangdong market was 5,928 yuan/ton [47][48]. - **International Visible Inventory**: As of December 23, 2025, the LME inventory was 157,800 tons, and the copper inventory in the New York market reached a new high in recent years [54][55]. - **Domestic Inventory**: Since May 2025, the domestic social inventory has fluctuated between 1 - 2 million tons. As of December 25, 2025, the social inventory was 202,200 tons. The SHFE inventory has also remained low [59]. 4. Primary Processing and Terminal Markets - **Primary Processing Market**: From January to November 2025, China's cumulative copper product output was 22.593 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%. In November 2025, China imported 427,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, and the total export volume from January to November 2025 was 1.4971 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.10% [65][70]. - **Terminal Market - Power**: From January to November 2025, the investment in power source projects of major power generation enterprises in China was 850 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%; the investment in power grid projects was 560.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.9% [74]. - **Terminal Market - Real Estate**: From January to November, China's real estate development investment was 7.8591 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9% [80]. - **Terminal Market - Automobile**: From January to November 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 31.231 million and 31.127 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 11.9% and 11.4%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles were 14.907 million and 14.78 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 31.4% and 31.2%. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 53.6%. It is expected that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in 2026 will reach 1.85 million vehicles [85][90]. - **Terminal Market - Home Appliances**: In November 2025, China's air - conditioner output was 15.026 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 23.4%. From January to November 2025, the export volume of household appliances was 408.2801 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 0.4% [94]. - **Terminal Market - Photovoltaic and Wind Power**: As of November 2025, China's solar power installed capacity was 1.16 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 41.9%; the wind power installed capacity was 600 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.4% [98]. - **Chinese Photovoltaic and Wind Power Newly - Added Copper Consumption and Global AI Copper Consumption Forecast**: It is expected that the copper consumption of China's photovoltaic and wind power installations will decrease in 2025 and 2026. The global data center scale and copper consumption are expected to increase in 2025 and 2026 [100][101][102]. 5. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet and Industrial Chain Structure - **Global Copper Downstream Demand Structure Change and Supply - Demand Balance Forecast**: From 2026 - 2028, the global refined copper supply and demand will have a continuous gap of 160,000 tons, 360,000 tons, and 610,000 tons respectively. The proportion of new energy consumption in total consumption is increasing [106]. - **Industrial Chain Structure**: No specific analysis content is provided [109]