1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel market: Recently, steel mill profits have recovered, and the output of rebar has slightly increased from a low level. Downstream consumption is gradually weakening, and the inventory depletion rate is slowing down. In the short - term, the market continues the pattern of weak supply and demand, and the fundamentals have insufficient driving force for prices. However, boosted by the warming market atmosphere and the increasing expectation of supply - tightening policies, the futures market shows a low - level and relatively strong oscillation. The 2605 contract is expected to oscillate within the range of 3080 - 3160 [7]. - Iron ore market: In terms of the industry, the latest overseas iron ore shipments and domestic arrivals have slightly decreased, but they are still high year - on - year, and port inventories continue to rise, indicating strong iron ore supply. On the demand side, as the iron ore output stabilizes after the recovery of steel mill profits, it supports the demand for raw materials, and steel mill inventories increase slightly. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of iron ore is relatively loose, but the short - term market expects marginal improvement in supply and demand, and the confidence in winter stockpiling and replenishment has slightly increased. It is expected that iron ore prices will continue to oscillate strongly. The iron ore 2605 contract should pay attention to the pressure in the range of 790 - 820 yuan/ton [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Views and Strategies - **Inventory**: The inventory of the five major steel products continues to decline. By variety, rebar inventory continues to decrease, with a slight increase in steel mill inventory and a continuous decrease in social inventory; the factory and social inventories of hot - rolled coils and wire rods both decrease slightly; the factory inventory of cold - rolled products increases while the social inventory decreases; for medium - thick plates, the decrease in factory inventory is less than the increase in social inventory. As the off - season deepens, the inventory depletion gradually slows down [7]. - **Supply**: The molten iron output of steel mills stops falling and stabilizes. The decline in coke prices allows steel mill profits to recover, and the production reduction intensity slows down. The output of rebar and hot - rolled coils both increase slightly. Recently, the profitability rate of steel mills has rebounded, and some blast furnaces have resumed production, supporting the demand for raw materials [7]. - **Demand**: The total apparent demand for the five major steel products continues to shrink. As the weather gets colder, terminal consumption gradually weakens. In addition, the enthusiasm for winter stockpiling among middle and lower - stream enterprises is low, and it is expected that demand will further decline [7]. - **Iron ore Supply**: In the latest period (20251215 - 1221), the global iron ore shipment volume and domestic arrivals have decreased month - on - month. The global iron ore shipment volume is 3464.5 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 128.0 million tons. Among them, the shipment volume from Australia is 1889.2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 101.3 million tons, and the shipment volume from Brazil is 859.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 39.4 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China is 2790.2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 137.9 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China is 2646.7 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 76.7 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports is 1256.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 102.1 million tons [9]. - **Iron ore Demand**: As of December 26, 2025, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 78.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.15 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate is 84.94%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points; the profitability rate of steel mills is 37.23%, a month - on - month increase of 1.30 percentage points; the daily average molten iron output is 226.58 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 million tons. Recently, steel mill profits have rebounded month - on - month, capacity utilization has increased, and molten iron output has remained stable month - on - month [9]. - **Iron ore Inventory**: As of December 26, 2025, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China is 16619.96 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 394.43 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume is 328.76 million tons, an increase of 0.53 million tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills across the country is 8860.19 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 136.24 million tons; the daily consumption of imported ore by the current sample steel mills is 280.04 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.51 million tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 31.64 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.54 days. Iron ore port inventories continue to increase, and steel mill inventories increase month - on - month [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - As of December 26, 2025, the closing price of the RB2605 contract is 3118 yuan/ton; the closing price of the HC2605 contract is 3283 yuan/ton. The basis of the Shanghai rebar main contract is 172 yuan/ton; the basis of the Shanghai hot - rolled coil main contract is - 13 yuan/ton [21]. - As of December 26, 2025, the RB05 - 10 contract spread closes at - 49 yuan/ton; the HC05 - 10 contract spread closes at - 13 yuan/ton. The spot screw - coil spread in Shanghai is - 13 yuan/ton, and the main contract screw - coil spread is - 165 yuan/ton [42]. 3.3 Demand Side - The total apparent demand for the five major steel products continues to shrink. As the weather gets colder, terminal consumption gradually weakens, and the enthusiasm for winter stockpiling among middle and lower - stream enterprises is low, so demand is expected to further decline [7]. 3.4 Inventory Side - The inventory of the five major steel products continues to decline, but as the off - season deepens, the inventory depletion gradually slows down. By variety, the inventory changes vary [7]. - As of December 26, 2025, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China is 16619.96 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 394.43 million tons; the total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills across the country is 8860.19 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 136.24 million tons [9]. 3.5 Supply Side - The molten iron output of steel mills stops falling and stabilizes. The decline in coke prices allows steel mill profits to recover, and the production reduction intensity slows down. The output of rebar and hot - rolled coils both increase slightly. Recently, the profitability rate of steel mills has rebounded, and some blast furnaces have resumed production, supporting the demand for raw materials [7]. 3.6 Raw Material - Iron Ore - **Supply**: From December 15 to December 21, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume is 3464.5 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 128.0 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia is 1889.2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 101.3 million tons, and the shipment volume from Brazil is 859.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 39.4 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China is 2790.2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 137.9 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China is 2646.7 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 76.7 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports is 1256.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 102.1 million tons [9][148][165]. - **Demand**: As of December 26, 2025, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 78.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.15 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate is 84.94%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points; the profitability rate of steel mills is 37.23%, a month - on - month increase of 1.30 percentage points; the daily average molten iron output is 226.58 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 million tons [9]. - **Inventory**: As of December 26, 2025, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China is 16619.96 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 394.43 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume is 328.76 million tons, an increase of 0.53 million tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills across the country is 8860.19 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 136.24 million tons; the daily consumption of imported ore by the current sample steel mills is 280.04 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.51 million tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 31.64 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.54 days [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report Industrial Silicon - This week (2025.12.19 - 2025.12.26), the spot price of industrial silicon trended upward, with the benchmark spot price at 8800 yuan/ton on December 26, up 0.79% from December 19. The futures market's main contract fluctuated downward, but with a weekly increase of 2.19%. The current main - month contract's open interest is about 224,700 lots [9]. - Supply slightly increased as production in Yunnan and Sichuan decreased, while that in the Northwest increased, and Hunan stopped production entirely. However, due to weak downstream demand, this change had no significant market impact [9]. - Demand for industrial silicon decreased as the supply of polysilicon continued to shrink in December, the domestic silicone industry's production reduction advanced, and the output of aluminum rods slightly decreased. Exports in November 2025 were 54,900 tons, up 21.78% month - on - month and 3.72% year - on - year. From January to November, the total export was 661,500 tons, showing an increase compared to previous months [9]. - Costs were basically stable this week, and profits increased due to stable costs and rising market prices [9]. - Overall inventory trended upward [9]. - Looking ahead, with stable supply, weak downstream and terminal demand, and high inventory, the market is expected to decline further. Suggested strategies include shorting si2605 at high prices, with an expected operating range of 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton; buying put options; or using an arbitrage strategy of shorting industrial silicon and going long on polysilicon [9]. Polysilicon - This week (2025.12.19 - 2025.12.26), the spot price of polysilicon fluctuated within a range. The benchmark spot price on December 26 was 56,105 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from December 19. The futures market's main contract fluctuated upward, but with a weekly decrease of 2.14%. The current main - month contract's open interest is about 119,100 lots [11]. - Supply continued to shrink in December, with a small overall decline. Although some enterprises in the Southwest reduced production due to the dry season, there was an increase in the Northwest. The domestic polysilicon output in December is expected to be about 115,000 tons, and supply may continue to decline slightly next month [11]. - Overall demand contracted due to the off - season, and downstream procurement was sluggish due to production cuts and high inventory, making it difficult for industry demand to recover quickly. Short - term attention should be paid to inventory digestion and downstream production scheduling changes [11]. - Costs increased slightly this week, and profits decreased slightly [11]. - The current polysilicon industry inventory is high and difficult to reverse substantially. The overall reduction in supply was limited, and it did not fully match the decline in demand [11]. - Most polysilicon enterprises have raised new order quotes to 65,000 yuan/ton, reflecting their optimistic expectations and price - support intentions. The price difference between quotes and transactions is a game between cost support from production cuts and cautious procurement due to weak downstream demand. The establishment of the purchase and storage platform is seen as a potential positive factor, improving market sentiment and transaction atmosphere. Suggested strategies include going long on PS2605 at low prices, with an expected operating range of 55,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton; buying call options; or using an arbitrage strategy of shorting industrial silicon and going long on polysilicon [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Week - on - Week Views and Hot News - **Hot News**: On December 26, the State Administration for Market Regulation conducted compliance guidance on price competition in the photovoltaic industry in Hefei, Anhui. It pointed out "involution - style" competition issues in the industry. On December 24, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange added several polysilicon futures delivery warehouses. On December 23, it restricted the single - day opening volume of non - futures company members or customers in polysilicon futures. On December 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that 2026 would be a critical period for photovoltaic industry governance. On December 12, the "polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform" was officially established [6]. - **Industrial Silicon Week - on - Week View**: See the core views section above [9]. - **Polysilicon Week - on - Week View**: See the core views section above [11]. Industry Structure - The industrial silicon industry chain includes raw materials such as petroleum coke, charcoal, etc., which are used to produce industrial silicon. Industrial silicon is further processed into organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloys, and these products are applied in various fields such as electronics, construction, and photovoltaics [17]. Spot and Futures Markets - **Spot Prices**: There are price charts for different grades and regions of industrial silicon, including 553 and 421 grades, in various ports and locations [23][24][29][31]. - **Futures Contracts**: There are charts for the closing and settlement prices of continuous and active contracts of industrial silicon [37][41]. Inventory - There are charts showing the industrial silicon industry inventory, factory inventory, market inventory, and futures inventory [50][54]. Cost and Profit - **Profit and Cost**: There are charts for the comprehensive profit and cost of all grades of industrial silicon [61]. - **Main Production Area Electricity Prices**: There are price charts for industrial silicon electricity in multiple main and non - main production areas [67][72][75][83][89]. - **Silica Stone Prices**: There are price charts for silica stone in different regions [95][99]. - **Petroleum Coke, Electrodes, and Silicon Coal**: There are price charts for petroleum coke, graphite electrodes, and silicon coal in different regions [102][108]. Supply - **Output**: There are charts for the weekly and monthly output, monthly capacity, and production start - up rate of industrial silicon [115][119]. - **Newly Added Capacity**: Multiple companies in different regions have newly added industrial silicon production capacity, with a total of 1.88 million tons [123]. Demand - **Consumption Overview**: There are charts for the consumption breakdown and structure of industrial silicon [126]. - **Polysilicon**: There are charts for the monthly output, price, factory inventory, cost, and profit of polysilicon [132][138]. - **Organic Silicon**: There are charts for the market price, intermediate production, production cost, and production profit of organic silicon in the East China region [143][149]. - **Aluminum Rods**: There are charts for the weekly and monthly output, price, and inventory of aluminum rods, as well as the output, start - up rate, and inventory of primary and secondary aluminum alloys [154][159][161][168][172]. - **Solar/PV**: There are charts for the cumulative output of solar cells and the price of battery cells [179]. Import and Export - There are charts for the import and export volumes of industrial silicon and polysilicon [189][193].

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货饲料周报 市场担忧海关政策收紧 豆菜粕短期或震荡偏强 20251228 邓丹 交易咨询号：Z0011401 从业资格号：F0300922 0769-22111252 审核：黄忠夏 从业资格号：F0285615 交易咨询号：Z0010771 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 基本面观点 ◆ 美豆方面，暂无可炒作的题材。 ◆ 在海关政策收紧的担忧下，预计豆菜粕短期或震荡偏强为主。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 ◆ 南美方面，南美主产区近期都有不错的降雨，有利已播大豆的生长。目前马托格罗索州和帕拉纳州最早播 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The daily consumption of thermal power continues to be lower than the same period in previous years. The core contradiction between high inventory and weak demand continues to intensify, and coal prices show a downward trend. The domestic methanol operating rate and production remain at a high level, while the international methanol operating rate drops to a low level. The import pressure will decrease in January next year, and the supply pressure will reduce. The operating rate of traditional downstream industries is at a low level, while the MTO operating rate is at a high level. Affected by winter seasonal factors, there is an expectation of a slight contraction in demand. During the cycle, the unloading is smooth, the import volume is high, and the port methanol inventory has rebounded to a high level. The methanol supply - demand situation is bearish. It is expected that methanol prices may mainly fluctuate weakly [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - demand Overview - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 40.67 tons, with an overall incremental expectation. The expected arrival volume of foreign ships remains high, the import apparent demand may remain weak, and the port methanol inventory is expected to continue to accumulate [11]. - **Supply**: The weekly production of Chinese methanol is expected to be about 2.0635 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of about 90.86%, a decrease from the current period. The estimated arrival plan of methanol import samples is 466,200 tons, including 388,200 tons of visible and 78,000 tons of invisible. The domestic trade is estimated to be around 25,000 - 30,000 tons [11]. - **Demand**: Some enterprises in East and Northwest China continue to reduce their loads, and the average weekly operating rate of the industry is expected to decline slightly. Among traditional demands, the operating rates of glacial acetic acid and chlorides are expected to increase, while those of formaldehyde and dimethyl ether are expected to decrease [11]. - **Industrial Chain Profits**: The import profit remains at a loss of - 17 yuan/ton. The profit of coal - to - methanol production in Inner Mongolia remains stable at a loss of - 176 yuan/ton, and the downstream profit is at a large loss. The profit of MTO in East China remains at a loss of - 1,003 yuan/ton [11]. - **Coal Prices**: The daily consumption of thermal power continues to be lower than the same period in previous years. The core contradiction between high inventory and weak demand continues to intensify, and coal prices show a downward trend [11][13]. 3.2 Strategies - **Unilateral and Options**: Operate bearishly within the range. For options, sell straddle options [13]. - **MA Unilateral Strategy (Medium - term)**: Short MA605. As of December 25, the price of MA605 is 2,148 yuan. The logic is that the import volume is high, the traditional demand is poor, and the port inventory is at a relatively high level. The operation suggestion is to operate bearishly [17]. - **PP - 3MA Strategy**: Short the PP - 3MA spread. As of December 25, the spread of the May contract is - 220 yuan. The logic is that PP will still be in the peak production period in 2026, and the supply pressure of PP is greater than that of methanol. The new production capacity of methanol downstream is large, and the demand for methanol is resilient. However, recently, coal prices have fallen, and the short - term spread trend has high uncertainty. The operation suggestion is to wait and see or short on rallies [19]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Prices - **Spot Price**: As of December 15, the spot price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu is 2,145 yuan/ton [25]. - **Basis**: As of December 25, the basis relative to the May contract is - 17 yuan/ton [25]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Capacity Utilization and Production**: Last week (December 19 - 25, 2025), the production of Chinese methanol was 2,072,175 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,200 tons. The device capacity utilization rate was 91.24%, a week - on - week increase of 0.80% [83]. - **International Operating Rate and Imports**: From December 18 - 24, 2025, the Chinese methanol sample arrival volume was 528,300 tons, including 498,300 tons of foreign ships (403,300 tons of visible and 95,000 tons of invisible) and 30,000 tons of domestic trade ships [91]. - **New Capacity in 2025**: In 2025, China's new methanol production capacity is about 7.43 million tons, with a capacity increase of about 7.3% [94]. - **New Capacity in 2026**: In 2026, China's new methanol production capacity is about 7.87 million tons, with a capacity increase of about 7.3% [95][125]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Apparent Consumption**: From January to November, the apparent consumption of methanol was 95.22 million tons, an increase of 9.75% [101]. - **Methanol - to - Olefins Operating Rate and Production**: The MTO operating rate is 88.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.44%. The loads of MTO enterprises in East and Northwest China have slightly decreased, and the average weekly operating rate of the industry continues to decline [105]. - **Traditional Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rates of traditional downstream industries are relatively low [109]. - **Downstream Purchasing Volume**: Not specifically summarized in the text. - **Production Enterprise Order Volume**: As of December 24, 2025, the pending orders of sample enterprises are 193,600 tons, a decrease of 26,800 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 12.16% [123]. 3.6 Inventory - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of December 24, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 404,000 tons, an increase of 12,800 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 3.28% [131]. - **Port Inventory**: As of December 24, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol port samples is 1.4125 million tons, an increase of 193,700 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 15.89%. The port inventory has significantly increased, mainly in Jiangsu [134]. - **Port Floating Storage**: Not specifically summarized in the text.

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 华联期货黄金周报 黄金盘中创历史新高，短期多单设 好止盈 20251228 段福林 0769-22116880 从业资格号：F3048935 交易咨询号：Z0015600 审核：黄忠夏，从业资格号：F0285615,交易咨询号：Z0010771 1 周度观点及策略 2 期现市场 3 通胀、利率 4 美国经济 5 黄金供需平衡表 6 汇率 美元指数 7 黄金内外价差 8 黄金基差 9 金银油比价 ＆ 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点及策略 基本面观点 u 风险因素：1、美联储加息；2、美国通胀一直下行；3、美国财政赤字率下行。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (from December 19 to December 26, 2025), the spot price of lithium carbonate rose significantly, with the benchmark spot price reaching 120,400 yuan/ton on December 26, a 16.89% increase from December 19. The main contract of lithium carbonate in the futures market fluctuated downward, with the latest transaction price at 130,520 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 17.16%. The current position of the main - month contract is about 577,000 lots [11]. - The supply of lithium carbonate increased slightly this week. The operating rate of domestic lithium salt plants remained high, the new capacity of salt - lake lithium extraction continued to be released, and the new capacity was still ramping up. The import volume of overseas raw materials increased year - on - year, but there was a shipping cycle [11]. - The overall downstream demand scheduling remained high. The demand in the energy storage field was strong. Although some lithium iron phosphate manufacturers started production line maintenance, the overall level was still high. The power battery entered the seasonal off - season, and the scheduling plan decreased month - on - month. Downstream material manufacturers were generally cautious, and their purchases were mainly for just - in - time replenishment [11]. - The price of lithium concentrate was supported by the sharp rise in the lithium carbonate futures price and remained high, providing rigid support for the cost side. The costs of self - owned mines and salt lakes remained stable. Against the background of high lithium carbonate spot and futures prices, the profits of enterprises with self - owned mines and salt lakes were the most substantial, and the profits of processing enterprises that purchased raw materials externally also improved compared with the previous period. The overall industry profit remained at a relatively high level [11]. - The total social inventory of lithium carbonate continued to decline, but the speed slowed down. Due to the high price, the downstream's willingness to receive goods weakened. The inventory of lithium salt plants decreased significantly, and most of the social inventory was transferred and concentrated in the trading sector. The futures warehouse receipt volume was at the level of 17,100 tons [11]. - Currently, the lithium carbonate market is in a stage of intense game between "strong expectation" and "weak reality". The optimistic expectation of energy storage demand and the continuous decline of industry inventory support the price. The enthusiasm of funds in the futures market is high, and attention should be paid to the risk of the futures price callback driving the sharp fluctuation of the spot market. The unilateral strategy can consider going long on LC2605 at low prices, with an expected operating range of 120,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton, or buying call options [11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - ly Viewpoints and Hot News 3.1.1 Hot News - On December 25, Wanrun New Energy announced that starting from December 28, 2025, the company would reduce production and conduct maintenance on some production lines as planned for about one month. This maintenance was expected to reduce the company's lithium iron phosphate output by 5,000 - 20,000 tons and have no significant impact on the company's production and operation [8]. - On December 24, relevant media reported that according to people close to CATL, the lithium mining project of Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., Ltd. in the Zhenkouli of Yifeng County - Jianxiawo of Fengxin County was expected to resume production around the Spring Festival [8]. - The Yichun Tendering Network in Jiangxi Province released the first environmental impact assessment information of the lithium mining project of Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., Ltd. in the Zhenkouli of Yifeng County - Jianxiawo of Fengxin County [8]. - On December 16, the Yichun Natural Resources Bureau planned to cancel the mining licenses of 27 projects such as the Wuqiao porcelain stone mine in Gao'an City. The bureau had publicized the 27 mining licenses to be cancelled, and they would be officially cancelled after the 30 - working - day publicity period [8]. - The lithium iron phosphate industry was experiencing a collective price increase. Many leading enterprises had sent clear price - increase notices to customers. A staff member of Longpan Technology said that there was indeed a price - increase trend in the industry, and the company was communicating with customers about the price increase [8]. - The lithium iron phosphate industry was promoting anti - involution. The China Chemical and Physical Power Supply Industry Association would issue a notice, suggesting that enterprises should use the industry's average cost range disclosed on November 18 as an important reference for quotation and not engage in low - price dumping below the cost line. The association would disclose the industry's average cost range monthly starting from this month to provide an authoritative regulatory basis for enterprise quotations [8]. 3.1.2 Week - ly Viewpoints - **Market Review**: The spot price of lithium carbonate rose significantly, and the futures price fluctuated downward but still had a weekly increase. The position of the main - month contract was about 577,000 lots [11]. - **Supply**: The output of lithium carbonate increased slightly. Domestic lithium salt plants had a high operating rate, new salt - lake lithium extraction capacity was released, and overseas raw material imports increased year - on - year [11]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream demand scheduling remained high. Energy storage demand was strong, while power battery demand entered the off - season. Downstream material manufacturers were cautious in purchasing [11]. - **Cost, Profit, and Inventory**: The price of lithium concentrate remained high, supporting the cost side. The costs of self - owned mines and salt lakes were stable, and industry profits were at a high level. The total social inventory continued to decline, and the futures warehouse receipt volume was 17,100 tons [11]. - **Outlook**: The market was in a game between "strong expectation" and "weak reality". Attention should be paid to the risk of futures price callback affecting the spot market [11]. - **Strategy**: Consider going long on LC2605 at low prices, with an expected operating range of 120,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton, or buying call options [11]. 3.2 Industry Pattern The report shows the lithium industry chain, including upstream raw materials (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake brine, lithium recycling), lithium salt products (lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide), materials (ternary materials, lithium hexafluorophosphate, lithium iron phosphate, lithium cobalt oxide, lithium manganate), lithium batteries (power - type lithium batteries, capacity - type lithium batteries), and terminal consumption (new energy vehicles, two - wheeled vehicles, 3C digital products, energy storage, glass ceramics, etc.). It also provides the global supply and demand proportions of each link [16]. 3.3 Spot and Futures Markets 3.3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active lithium carbonate contract was 130,520 yuan/ton, an increase of 19,120 yuan or 17.16% from the previous period. - The trading volume of the active lithium carbonate contract was 428,716 lots, a decrease of 500,247 lots or 53.85% from the previous period. - The position of the active lithium carbonate contract was 577,035 lots, a decrease of 91,794 lots or 13.72% from the previous period. - The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 17,861 lots, an increase of 2,350 lots or 15.15% from the previous period [22]. 3.3.2 Spot Market The report provides the spot price seasonal chart and historical price chart of lithium carbonate, but no specific numerical analysis is given in the text [25]. 3.4 Inventory - The total inventory of lithium carbonate was 109,557 tons, a decrease of 1,039 tons or 0.94% from the previous period. - The market inventory was 73,706 tons, a decrease of 2,614 tons or 3.43% from the previous period. - The factory inventory was 17,990 tons, a decrease of 775 tons or 4.13% from the previous period. - The registered warehouse receipt volume was 17,861 tons, an increase of 2,350 tons or 15.15% from the previous period [33]. 3.5 Cost and Profit The report provides charts of the comprehensive cost and comprehensive profit of lithium carbonate, but no specific numerical analysis is given in the text [38]. 3.6 Supply 3.6.1 Production, Capacity, and Import and Export The report provides charts of the monthly production, capacity, and capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate, as well as the net import volume of lithium carbonate, but no specific numerical analysis is given in the text [42]. 3.6.2 Major Project Tracking (Potential Capacity) In December 2025, multiple companies in different regions had new lithium carbonate production capacity projects, with a total new capacity of about 166,000 tons [43]. 3.6.3 Lithium Carbonate Import The report provides charts of the monthly import seasonality, annual cumulative imports of lithium carbonate, and the monthly import seasonality from Argentina and Chile, but no specific numerical analysis is given in the text [45][46]. 3.6.4 Lithium Carbonate Production from Different Raw Materials The report provides charts of the monthly production seasonality of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake, and recycled materials, but no specific numerical analysis is given in the text [55][57]. 3.6.5 Lithium Spodumene Import The report provides charts of the monthly import seasonality of lithium spodumene from Zimbabwe and Australia, as well as the monthly import volume and cumulative import volume, but no specific numerical analysis is given in the text [67][70]. 3.7 Demand 3.7.1 Overall Demand The report provides charts of the monthly consumption of lithium carbonate, monthly production of new energy vehicles, penetration rate of new energy vehicles, and monthly production seasonality of power batteries, but no specific numerical analysis is given in the text [80][82]. 3.7.2 Power Batteries The report provides charts of the monthly production, installation volume, export, and energy - storage situation of power batteries, as well as the installation - volume proportion of each vehicle type's power battery, and the monthly production and demand proportion of cathode materials, but no specific numerical analysis is given in the text [86][88]. 3.7.3 Production of Each Material The report provides charts of the production of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, lithium cobalt oxide, and lithium manganate, but no specific numerical analysis is given in the text [96][98]. 3.8 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the supply - demand balance sheet of lithium carbonate from 1995 to a certain period, including information on total supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, import and export volume, production from different sources, and production of downstream materials, as well as inventory data [105].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The inflection point of the large - cycle of supply has arrived. The downward limit of rubber prices is raised by inflation and the inflection point of the production - capacity cycle. With the support of interest - rate cuts on demand, policies and replacement cycles being favorable for heavy - truck demand, and real estate being the main drag, it is anticipated that the center of gravity of rubber prices will increase. It is recommended to buy rubber at an appropriate time, with the running range of ru referring to 14,000 - 18,000 yuan/ton, and an arbitrage strategy of going long on ru and short on nr is suggested [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomy - The real - estate market has normal expectations but needs to stabilize. Domestically, there is a trend of anti - involution. Externally, the Fed's interest - rate cuts are beneficial for the capital market, but the spill - over effect of a possible US recession should be guarded against. The US plans to increase its GDP to 40 trillion US dollars by 2030, implying an annual nominal GDP growth rate of about 5.5% in the next five years, and inflation will provide support [6]. Supply - The large - cycle inflection point has arrived. Raw materials are prone to price increases and difficult to fall. Rubber farmers' inventories were cleared at a high level from 2024 - 2025. High prices will stimulate output with high elasticity, while low prices may lead to inactivity or reluctance to sell. Price has the greatest impact on output, followed by weather. The strength of raw materials and basis reflects the current strength, but the weak spread between latex and cup lump reflects the current weakness. The enthusiasm for rubber tapping is acceptable at present. The phenology of natural - rubber producing areas this year is average, with more rainfall and floods in southern Thailand in November, making raw materials relatively firm, while the processing sector is in the red. The global output of natural rubber is expected to increase by 0.75% this year. Crude oil is relatively sluggish, synthetic rubber is at a medium - low level relative to crude oil, and natural rubber is relatively high compared to synthetic rubber, with the substitution space of synthetic rubber for natural rubber approaching its peak [6]. Inventory - Qingdao's inventory is around the median level, having increased significantly compared to 2016, and the inventory - to - sales ratio is not low. However, considering the large increase in imports this year and the high proportion of exports from producing areas to China, the inventory is not considered high, with an overall neutral evaluation. Attention should be paid to the seasonal peak of inventory accumulation later. Due to the diversion of concentrated latex and production - capacity issues in Thailand, Vietnam, and China, the output of full - latex is squeezed, and the exchange warehouse receipts are at a ten - year low. The inventory of butadiene rubber is relatively high. The inventory of full - steel tires downstream is lower than last year; the inventory of semi - steel tires is de - stocking marginally from a high level, but considering the market - scale expansion, it is evaluated as neutral [6]. Demand - In 2025, real - estate data continued to deteriorate, dragging down the market. The current new construction area is less than one - third of the peak. Given the long real - estate cycle and the unfavorable population situation, it will take time for a turnaround. Affected by the sharp decline in real - estate physical work volume, the recovery of road freight volume is difficult. It caught up with the 2019 level in 2024 and continued to grow in 2025. However, heavy - truck sales still have policy and replacement - cycle support. Domestic passenger - car sales (including exports) performed well under policy stimulus, domestic substitution, and overseas market expansion, but the marginal growth rate has shown signs of fatigue. Overseas automobile sales are oscillating weakly, and overseas markets rely more on tire replacement demand. The Fed's interest - rate cuts are conducive to stimulating demand. Rubber demand follows the macro - economy, and it is expected that the global demand will grow by about 2% in 2026 [6]. Price and Spread - Spot prices of rubber have a slight rebound, with synthetic rubber having a relatively larger increase. Ru basis is at a multi - year high, the spread between full - latex and Thai mixed rubber is at a low level. Ru 1 - 9 month spread has rebounded to 5, stronger than last year, while the nr contango spread is around - 55 and weakening, and the br contango spread is around - 30 [16][21][25]. Raw Materials and Profit - Thai raw materials are moving sideways with a weakening trend, and Hainan's raw - material prices are falling. In 2025, Thai raw - material prices are relatively strong compared to finished products, indicating a tightening of raw - material production capacity. However, the weak spread between latex and cup lump implies that the supply problem is not significant. Thai processing profit is better than last year but still in the negative area, reflecting over - capacity in processing and tight raw - material supply in Thailand [35][40]. Production and Import - The Asian Natural Rubber Producers' Council (ANRPC) predicts that the cumulative global natural - rubber production in the first three quarters of this year is expected to increase by 2.3%, and consumption is expected to decrease by 1.5%. As of October, ANRPC's production has a slight increase. The global output is expected to grow by 0.75% this year. The global production capacity is approaching the ceiling. In 2024, ANRPC member countries' production decreased by 0.12%, 5.3% lower than the peak. Globally, production increased by 2% in 2024 and is predicted to increase by 0.75% in 2025. In 2024, rubber imports were lower than previous years. In the first ten months of 2025, China's cumulative imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) increased by 15% compared to the same period in 2024 [74][75][85]. Demand - Side Indicators - This year, the operating rate of full - steel tires is higher than last year but still at a low level in recent years, and the operating rate of semi - steel tires is lower than last year. As of November 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of tire outer - tube production is 0.6%, with the marginal growth rate continuing to decline. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of tire exports is 3.8%, with the growth rate also continuing to decline marginally. Heavy - truck sales still have policy and replacement - cycle support. In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 46%. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales exceeded 1 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26%. Domestic passenger - car sales (including exports) performed well but with signs of marginal fatigue. Overseas automobile sales are generally weak [107][111][116].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Views - This week, the bond market operated steadily with a significant expansion in issuance scale. A total of 881 interest rate bonds and credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance amount of 1,188.874 billion yuan, indicating strong financing demand from various entities. The cumulative trading volume in the bond market was 77.2 trillion yuan, and the trading turnover reached 79.6 trillion yuan, with the average daily trading volume stable above 1.5 trillion yuan, showing abundant market liquidity and high trading activity [7]. - In the inter - bank market, the yields of major interest rate bonds generally declined, and market sentiment was positive. The short - end yields of 1 - year and 3 - year Treasury bonds were stable, fluctuating within the range of 1.3% - 1.33%, while the 30 - year ultra - long special Treasury bond yield dropped to 2.2180%, a recent low. The duration center of bond funds rose to 3.1 years, and the leverage ratio of non - bank institutions increased, indicating stronger allocation willingness [7]. - In the past month (from November 29 to December 28, 2025), the yields of credit bonds declined by 0.64% overall. The decline in the medium - short - term (1 - 3 years) yields was significantly higher than that in the long - term (5 years and above), which only decreased by 0.13%. High - grade credit bonds such as AAA - rated medium - short - term notes and high - quality urban investment bonds remained attractive [7]. - As of December 26, 2025, the spread between 3 - year corporate bonds and the same - term Treasury bonds narrowed to 46.84BP, reflecting the market's more optimistic pricing of the credit risk of medium - and high - grade credit bonds and continuous strengthening of allocation [7]. - This week, the central bank mainly conducted net repurchase operations in the open market, with a net repurchase of 45 billion yuan. The operating interest rate remained stable at 1.40%. The market's expectation of a reserve requirement ratio cut or interest rate cut in January 2026 has increased [9]. - It is expected that in 2026, fiscal policy will be significantly front - loaded, especially in the first half of the year. The estimated issuance scale of local government special bonds is about 4.4 trillion yuan, and the estimated issuance scale of special Treasury bonds is about 1.3 trillion yuan [9]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Bond Market Operation - This week, 881 interest rate bonds and credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance amount of 1,188.874 billion yuan. The cumulative trading volume was 77.2 trillion yuan, and the turnover was 79.6 trillion yuan, with an average daily trading volume above 1.5 trillion yuan [7]. - The yields of major interest rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally declined. The 1 - year and 3 - year Treasury bond yields were stable at 1.3% - 1.33%, and the 30 - year ultra - long special Treasury bond yield dropped to 2.2180% [7]. - In the past month, the yields of credit bonds declined by 0.64% overall, with the medium - short - term yields dropping more significantly than the long - term ones. High - grade credit bonds and high - quality urban investment bonds were attractive [7]. - As of December 26, 2025, the spread between 3 - year corporate bonds and the same - term Treasury bonds narrowed to 46.84BP [7]. Central Bank Operations and Market Expectations - This week, the central bank conducted 422.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 457.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net repurchase of 34.8 billion yuan [48]. - The central bank's net repurchase did not change the direction of loose money. The market's expectation of a reserve requirement ratio cut or interest rate cut in January 2026 has increased [9]. Fiscal Policy Expectations - In 2025, 500 billion yuan of local special bond balance limits were issued. It is expected that in 2026, fiscal policy will be significantly front - loaded, with an estimated issuance scale of local government special bonds of about 4.4 trillion yuan and an estimated issuance scale of special Treasury bonds of about 1.3 trillion yuan [9]. Market Liquidity - Recent market liquidity has been unexpectedly loose, with short - term interest rates continuously falling. The weighted average interest rate of DR001 slightly decreased and continued to operate below 1.26%, while DR007 slightly increased by about 4bp due to year - end factors [36]. Foreign Bond Markets (US) - The US federal funds target rate and effective federal funds rate remained at a high level, with the federal funds target rate at 5.25% - 5.50% [78]. - The yields of US Treasury bonds showed certain fluctuations, and the spreads between different maturities also changed [83][85].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Industrial Sector**: In November 2025, industrial profit declined significantly, with a 13.1% year - on - year drop in the profits of large - scale industrial enterprises, mainly due to low PPI, cost pressure, weak demand in some industries, and high inventory pressure. There is a significant industry differentiation, with new kinetic energy industries such as equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing growing rapidly, while traditional industries like upstream resource extraction and some mid - stream raw material manufacturing are under pressure [8]. - **Consumption and Real Estate**: In November 2025, the year - on - year increase in social retail总额 was 1.3%, with service and online consumption as the main growth drivers. The real estate market was under pressure, with both new and second - hand housing prices showing a downward trend in most cities [10]. - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: GDP growth showed certain fluctuations, and different industries had different contributions to GDP growth. Industrial added value, power consumption, and foreign trade also had their own characteristics and trends [13][38][92]. 3. Summary by Directory National Economic Accounting - **GDP Growth**: From 2023 to 2025, GDP quarterly year - on - year growth rates fluctuated. Different industries such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, industry, and services had different growth trends. For example, the service industry had a relatively high growth rate in some quarters [13]. - **Contribution to GDP**: Different industries had different contributions to the year - on - year growth of constant - price GDP. The industrial sector generally had a relatively large contribution [18]. Industry - **Industrial Growth**: In November 2025, the added value of large - scale industrial enterprises increased by 4.8% year - on - year and 0.44% month - on - month, with new kinetic energy industries growing significantly faster than the overall level [8]. - **Industrial Production Volume**: The production volumes of major industrial products such as crude oil, coal, and steel showed different trends. For example, in November 2025, the steel output decreased by 2.6% year - on - year [8]. - **Industrial Profit**: From January to November 2025, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises was 66268.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. Different industries had different profit situations, with some industries like computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing showing growth, while others like coal mining and washing showed a decline [8][42]. - **Industrial Inventory**: As of the end of October 2025, the finished - product inventory of large - scale industrial enterprises reached 6.82 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. The inventory levels of different industries varied, with the inventory of the mining industry decreasing significantly and that of the mid - and downstream manufacturing industries increasing slightly [8][53]. Price Index - **CPI**: In November 2025, the national consumer price index increased by 0.7% year - on - year. Food prices increased by 0.2%, and non - food prices increased by 0.8% [60]. - **PPI**: In November 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.2% year - on - year, with a month - on - month increase of 0.1%. Production material prices decreased by 2.4%, and living material prices decreased by 1.5% [68]. Real Estate - **New Residential Prices**: In November 2025, new residential prices in first - tier cities decreased by 1.2% year - on - year, with significant differentiation among cities. Second - and third - tier cities also saw price declines [78]. - **Second - hand Residential Prices**: In November 2025, second - hand residential prices in first - tier cities decreased by 5.8% year - on - year, and second - and third - tier cities also showed year - on - year declines [83]. Foreign Trade and Investment - **Import and Export**: In November 2025, China's total import and export value was 520.63 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. Exports were 305.35 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%, and imports were 215.28 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 1.0% [92]. - **Key Commodity Trade**: The export and import volumes of key commodities such as agricultural products, industrial raw materials, and mechanical and electrical products showed different trends [100][101]. Fixed - Asset Investment - **Overall Investment**: From January to November 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 44403.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6%. There were differences in investment among different industries, with the first industry showing growth, the second industry having a certain increase, and the third industry showing a decline [115]. - **Real Estate Investment**: From January to November 2025, real estate development investment was 7859.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The construction, new construction, completion, and sales areas of real estate also showed downward trends [123]. Domestic Trade - **Retail Sales**: The growth rate of social consumer goods retail总额 and service retail sales showed certain trends, with service and online consumption driving growth. The retail sales of different categories of products also had different performance [157][164]. Transportation - **Freight and Passenger Transport**: The freight and passenger transport volumes of different transportation modes such as rail, road, water, and air showed different trends. The freight rates of shipping also had fluctuations [167][178]. Banking and Currency - **Social Financing**: The new social financing scale and its components, as well as the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock, showed different trends. The growth rates of M1 and M2 also changed, with the M1 - M2 scissors - difference showing a certain trend [182][198]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: The central bank emphasized reasonable interest rate control to promote a stable decline in the financing cost of the real economy. The exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar and the US dollar index also showed certain trends [207][217]. Fiscal and Employment - **Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure**: The general public fiscal revenue and expenditure of the central and local governments showed different trends. Fiscal revenue included tax and non - tax revenues, and fiscal expenditure included infrastructure and people's livelihood - related expenditures [232][233]. - **Employment**: The urban surveyed unemployment rate and the number of new urban employment showed certain trends [238]. Business Surveys - **Global Manufacturing PMI**: The global manufacturing PMI showed certain fluctuations, with different countries and regions having different performance [241]. - **China's Manufacturing and Non - Manufacturing PMI**: In November 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, showing a slight recovery but still in the contraction range. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.5%, in the contraction range [244][252]. US Macroeconomy - **GDP Growth**: The US real GDP showed different growth rates in different quarters, with private consumption, investment, and net exports having different contributions [259]. - **Employment**: The US new non - farm employment and unemployment rate showed certain trends [262]. - **Treasury Yields**: The yields of US Treasury bonds of different maturities and their yield curve inversion degree showed certain trends [267]. - **Retail Sales**: The year - on - year growth rate of US retail and food service sales showed certain trends, with different categories of products having different performance [270].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The production profit of polyolefins is poor, but there is support at the cost - end. The capacity production is strong, with the operating rate higher than last year and the output significantly exceeding that of last year, leading to great pressure on the supply side. The downstream operating rate remains at a relatively low level overall, and the off - peak season atmosphere is strong, resulting in weak demand. Polyolefins maintain a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Technically, they rebound after reaching the bottom. In the short term, polyolefins may fluctuate mainly. For futures and options strategies, for futures on a single - side basis, reduce or exit short positions; for options, sell straddle options [9]. - For PP, it is recommended to short. As of December 25, the price is in a downward trend at 6266. The logic is that the new PP capacity is large, and downstream demand is weak, so the medium - to - long - term trend of PP is relatively weak. It is also recommended to reduce or exit short positions [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Overview - **Inventory**: According to Longzhong Information, the expected inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises this week is about 440,000 tons, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline. The expected inventory of Chinese polypropylene production enterprises is about 510,000 tons, which is lower than the current period, and the polypropylene market continues to decline [8]. - **Supply**: According to Longzhong Information, this week, plants including Yangzi Petrochemical, Sino - Korean Petrochemical, and Maoming Petrochemical are planned to restart, and with no new planned maintenance plants, the expected total output for the next period is 704,900 tons, an increase of 32,700 tons compared to the current total output. The estimated total output of Chinese polypropylene is 795,000 tons, showing a narrow increase this week and a change from a downward to an upward trend [8]. - **Demand**: According to Longzhong Information, this week, the overall operating rate of PE downstream industries has slightly decreased, and export orders have shown weak growth. After the e - commerce activities ended, the supermarket channel has entered the de - stocking stage. The operating rate of PP downstream is on a downward trend [8]. - **Industrial Chain Profit**: The losses of oil - based PE and PP production profits have widened. The production of ethylene - based PE and propylene - based PP are in a state of loss, and the losses of PDH - based PP production have also widened. There is support at the cost - end [8]. 3.2 Production Profit - **PE Production Profit**: The losses of LLDPE oil - based and ethylene - based production profits are shown in relevant charts, indicating a poor profit situation [32][35]. - **PP Production Profit**: The losses of PP oil - based, propylene - based, PDH - based, and coal - based production profits are shown in relevant charts, with an overall poor profit situation [37][39][42]. - **PE/PP Import and Export Profit**: The import and export profit situations of LLDPE and PP are shown in relevant charts, with varying degrees of losses [44][46][48]. 3.3 Inventory - **PE Inventory**: Charts show the inventory of PE production enterprises, traders, social inventory, and coal - based inventory, with the overall expected inventory decline [52][55]. - **PP Inventory**: Charts show the inventory of PP production enterprises, traders, port inventory, and coal - based inventory, with the inventory of production enterprises expected to decline [58][60]. 3.4 Supply Side - **PE Output**: The weekly output, operating rate, and maintenance loss volume of PE are shown in relevant charts. The plastic production capacity has maintained high - speed growth in the past five years, with an average annual capacity growth rate of 12%. In 2025, the new capacity is 5.43 million tons, and the capacity base has increased to 41.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. In 2026, the planned PE production capacity is 9.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.45%, but considering the poor production profit, the actual production volume may be about half [68][70][89]. - **PP Output**: The weekly output, operating rate, and maintenance loss volume of PP are shown in relevant charts. PP production capacity has maintained high - speed growth in the past five years, with an average annual capacity growth rate of 11%. In 2025, China's PP realized capacity is about 4.555 million tons, and the capacity base has increased to 49.165 million tons, a 10.2% increase compared to 2024. In 2026, the planned PP production capacity is 9.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.1%, but considering the poor production profit, the actual production volume may be about half [75][77][95]. - **PE and PP Imports**: Charts show the import volumes of PE and PP [83]. 3.5 Demand Side - **PE/PP Downstream Operating Rate**: Charts show the operating rates of PE and PP downstream industries, with the overall operating rate of PE downstream industries slightly decreasing and the operating rate of PP downstream on a downward trend [105]. - **PE Downstream Operating Rate**: Charts show the operating rates of agricultural film, packaging film, hollow products, and PE pipes, with a general decline [109]. - **PP Downstream Operating Rate**: Charts show the operating rates of plastic weaving, BOPP, injection molding, and PP pipes, with a downward trend [118][120]. - **PE/PP Exports**: Charts show the export volumes of PE and PP [123]. - **Plastic Products**: Charts show the production volume of plastic products, the inventory of the rubber and plastic products industry, the year - on - year monthly production of automobiles and household appliances, the export volume of household appliances, the domestic automobile production, and China's automobile exports [127][128][133].