期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货白银周报 年底行情激化，白银价格屡创新高 20251228 作者：曾可 交易咨询号：Z0022773 从业资格号：F03118676 0769-22116880 审核：黄忠夏，从业资格号：F0285615,交易咨询号：Z0010771 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 ◆ 白银走势：上周白银走势非常强劲，连续刷新历史新高。伦敦银周内连续上攻，将历史新高刷新至79.405，最终收报 79.329；沪银主力合约将新高刷新至19215，截至周六凌晨收盘收于19204元 ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货PVC周报 供给端扰动 市场情绪偏暖 20251228 黄桂仁 0769-22112875 从业资格号：F3032275 交易咨询号：Z0014527 审核：黄忠夏 从业资格号：F0285615 交易咨询号：Z0010771 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 产业链结构 周度观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 供应：上周PVC上游开工率77.23%，环比降低0.15个百分点，同比降低3.4个百分点，处在同期中性位。主要是部分 装置检修降负荷影响，但总体供应仍在高位。2026年几乎没有新增产能，供应扩张 ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货油脂周报 马棕1 2月前2 5日产量降幅扩大 油脂短期或震荡偏强 20251228 邓丹 交易咨询号：Z0011401 从业资格号：F0300922 0769-22111252 审核：黄忠夏 从业资格号：F0285615 交易咨询号：Z0010771 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 基本面观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 ◆ 豆油方面，南美主产区近期都有不错的降雨，有利已播大豆的生长。 ◆ 棕榈油方面，SPPOMA数据显示，马棕12月1-25日产量环比减少9.12%。ITS数据显示，马棕12月1- ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货PTA周报 供需预期改善推动聚酯走高 20251228 黎照锋 0769-22110802 从业资格号：F0210135 交易咨询号：Z0000088 审核：黄忠夏，从业资格号：F0285615,交易咨询号：Z0010771 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 ◆ 上游：成本端布油在近五年低点反弹，油价相对低迷但货币贬值之下黄金强势以及地缘局势复杂仍将为油价带来支撑，而且欧 美对燃油车的限制边际放宽。当前PX利润良好，开工处于高位，PX库存低位，延续偏紧格局。 ◆ 供应：根据投产计划，PX和PTA供需基本面向好，PX明年上半年没有新产能计划投产，PTA明年没有新产能计划投产。PTA现货加 工费173元/ ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货原油周报 供需偏弱 地缘扰动 20251228 黄桂仁 0769-22112875 从业资格号：F3032275 交易咨询号：Z0014527 审核：黄忠夏 从业资格号：F0285615 交易咨询号：Z0010771 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点 供应：欧佩克12月报显示，11月份OPEC+原油总产量4306.5万桶/日，较年初增加242万桶/日。其中欧佩克原油产量2848.0万桶/日， 较年初增加176.5万桶/日。沙特原油产量1005.3万桶/日，环比增加5.3万桶/日。欧佩克会议决定，由于季节性因素，2026年前三 个月将暂停增产计划。美国原油产量突破1380万桶/日，产量维持高位。 需求：IEA月报将2025年全球石油需求增长预测从71万桶/日上调至78.8万桶/日，预计第四季度石油需求增长将放缓，将2026年全 球石油需求增长预测从69.9万桶/日上调至77万桶/日。预计2026年全球石油供应总量将比需求量高出409万桶/日（先前报告 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economic environment in 2026 is complex. Sino - US relations may remain "in conflict but not broken", the US and Europe will enter an interest - rate cut cycle, and China's fiscal and monetary policies will be "double - loose" to support the economy, providing economic support for copper demand. - In terms of the copper industry, the global copper mine supply in 2025 was disturbed by various factors, and the output is expected to decline slightly. In 2026, the actual output growth is also limited. The copper concentrate processing fee TC is decreasing, and smelters face large - scale losses, leading to a possible decline in the growth rate of refined copper production. Overseas factors may exacerbate the shortage of domestic copper supply. - In 2026, as the first year of China's "15th Five - Year Plan", the demand in traditional industries will remain resilient, and the new kinetic energy sectors such as global new energy and AI will maintain high - speed development. The copper market will have a large supply gap. It is recommended to buy in the medium - to - long - term or conduct rolling long positions, with the Shanghai copper reference support range at 75,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [8][9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Annual Viewpoints and Strategies - **Strategy**: Buy in the medium - to - long - term or conduct rolling long positions. The reference support range for Shanghai copper is 75,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [8]. - **Macro**: Sino - US relations may remain "in conflict but not broken", the US and Europe will enter an interest - rate cut cycle, and the US encourages investment to attract the return of the manufacturing industry. China will focus on the start of the "15th Five - Year Plan", with a general tone of making progress while maintaining stability, improving quality and efficiency, and accelerating the transformation to innovation - driven development. Fiscal and monetary policies will be "double - loose" to support the economy, and the GDP growth rate is expected to be around 5%. Non - ferrous metals are supported by the demand in power, new energy, and AI but may be volatile [9]. - **Supply**: In 2025, the global copper mine supply was disturbed, and the output is expected to decline slightly. In 2026, the actual output growth is limited. The copper concentrate processing fee TC is decreasing, and smelters face large - scale losses. China has been actively reducing production capacity, and many smelters will have to passively cut production in 2026. Overseas factors may exacerbate the shortage of domestic copper supply [9]. - **Demand**: In 2026, as the first year of China's "15th Five - Year Plan", the policy is expected to be favorable. The demand in traditional industries will remain resilient, and the new kinetic energy sectors such as global new energy and AI will maintain high - speed development. The copper market will have a large supply gap. It is estimated that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China will reach 18.5 million in 2026, with a copper consumption growth rate of about 15% and an absolute copper consumption increase of about 1.5 million tons. The total copper consumption in the photovoltaic and wind power sectors is expected to decline further. The global AI computing power demand will bring about 1 million tons of copper consumption increase [9]. 3.2 International Situation - **Macroeconomic**: The US encourages investment to attract the return of the manufacturing industry, and China will accelerate the transformation to innovation - driven development. China's GDP growth rate in 2026 is expected to be around 5% [11]. - **Geopolitics and Sino - US Relations Evolution**: Sino - US relations may remain "in conflict but not broken", and attention should be paid to the impact of the US mid - term elections, Supreme Court decisions, and economic data on policies. The long - term foundation of the US dollar system is loosening, and the internationalization of the RMB has entered a strategic window period, with Chinese enterprises accelerating their overseas expansion [12]. - **Global Economic Pattern and Commodities**: The global GDP in 2026 is expected to reach $124 trillion, but the growth rate will slow down marginally, and the economic scale gap between China and the US may widen to $11 trillion. Gold benefits from geopolitical risk premiums, crude oil is restricted by increased supply, and non - ferrous metals such as silver, copper, aluminum, and tin are supported by the demand in power, new energy, and AI but may be volatile [13]. 3.3 Domestic Situation - The domestic situation in 2026 will revolve around the start of the "15th Five - Year Plan", with a general tone of making progress while maintaining stability, improving quality and efficiency. - **Economic Policy and Macro - orientation**: In 2026, macro policies will be more forward - looking, emphasizing the coordinated cooperation of fiscal, monetary, and industrial policies, and focusing on the combination of traditional and innovative tools, as well as cyclical and reform - based policies to promote high - quality development. - **Innovation - Driven and New Kinetic Energy Cultivation**: Innovation is regarded as a key measure, including formulating an integrated education, science, and talent plan, building international science and technology innovation centers in Beijing, Shanghai, and the Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macao Greater Bay Area, and deepening the "AI +" initiative and improving AI governance. - **Livelihood Security and Social Policy**: Livelihood work focuses on "practicality", concentrating on key areas such as employment, education, and elderly care. - **Reform Breakthrough and Risk Prevention**: Reform will be a source of dividends, including promoting the construction of a unified national market, revitalizing existing assets, and preventing and resolving risks in key areas such as local government debt and real estate. - **Challenges and Uncertainties**: The external environment faces pressures such as global growth slowdown and geopolitical conflicts, while domestically, China needs to address economic structural imbalances, and the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries face significant uncertainties [15][16]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Policies - The US and Europe will enter an interest - rate cut cycle. China's fiscal and monetary policies will be "double - loose" to support the economy, with possible cuts in the deposit reserve ratio and interest rates, which are beneficial to the stability of the capital market. - **Fiscal Policy**: Continue to implement a more active fiscal policy, maintain "necessary fiscal deficits, total debt, and total expenditure". In 2026, the deficit rate is expected to remain stable, and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and local government special bonds will remain stable. Clean up and standardize unreasonable tax returns and subsidies to solve problems such as local protection and "involution - style" competition. - **Monetary Policy**: Continue to use the expression of "moderately loose", and propose to "flexibly and efficiently use various policy tools such as reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts". Interest - rate and reserve - requirement ratio cuts are expected to continue in 2026 [19]. 3.5 Fundamentals - **Global Copper Mine Capital Expenditure and New Large - scale Copper Mine Discoveries**: Global copper exploration investment has fluctuated greatly. Since 2015, the discovery of high - grade copper mines has decreased year by year. New large - scale copper mines are either in harsh geological conditions or politically unstable regions, with long development cycles and high costs. - **Global Copper Mine and Refined Copper Production Distribution**: In 2024, the top three countries in global copper mine production were Chile (23%), Congo (DRC) (15%), and Peru (11%); the top three countries in global refined copper production were China (45%), Congo (DRC) (9%), and Chile (7%). - **Copper Concentrate Processing Fee TC and Global Copper Mine Output**: As of December 12, 2025, the comprehensive TC price of 26% clean copper concentrate was - $43.13/dry ton, and the comprehensive spot price was $3,175/dry ton. The zero - order spot processing fee was significantly lower than the break - even point. In 2025, the global copper mine output was expected to decline by 0.12%, and the new production in 2026 was only 533,000 tons. - **Copper Concentrate Import and Inventory**: In October 2025, China's copper concentrate import volume was 2.451 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. From January to October, the import volume was 25.086 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. In the 50th week of 2025, the port inventory of imported copper concentrate in China was 664,000 tons. - **Global and Chinese Electrolytic Copper Production**: In September 2025, the global refined copper production was 2.3333 million tons, with a shortage of 81,300 tons. From January to September, the production was 20.616 million tons, with a surplus of 124,600 tons. In October 2025, China's refined copper production was 1.204 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. From January to October, the cumulative production was 12.295 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.7%. - **Chinese Electrolytic Copper Import and Export Volume**: In October 2025, China's refined copper import volume was 323,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.32%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 2.874 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.45%. - **Chinese Scrap Copper Import and Refined - Scrap Price Difference**: In October 2025, China's scrap copper import volume was 196,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.81% and a year - on - year increase of 7.35%. From January to October, the total import volume was 1.8956 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.11%. As of December 12, 2025, the refined - scrap price difference in the Guangdong market was 4,591 yuan/ton, higher than the reasonable price difference. - **Electrolytic Copper Import Profit and Loss and Scrap Copper Invoice Points**: No specific analysis content provided. - **International Visible Inventory**: As of December 11, 2025, the LME copper inventory was 165,000 tons, and the copper inventory in the New York market reached 450,600 tons, a new high in the same period in recent years. - **Domestic Inventory**: Since May 2025, the domestic social inventory has fluctuated between 1 million and 2 million tons. As of December 11, 2025, the social inventory was 171,200 tons. The SHFE inventory has also remained low. - **Primary Processing Market**: In October 2025, China's copper product output was 2.004 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.3%. From January to October, the cumulative output was 20.124 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. In October 2025, China's import of unwrought copper and copper products was 440,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.5%. From January to October, the cumulative import was 4.46 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%. In October 2025, the export of unwrought copper and copper products was 134,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 67.8%. From January to October, the cumulative export was 1.2771 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.0%. - **Terminal Market - Power**: From January to October 2025, the investment in power source projects of major power generation enterprises in China was 721.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.7%, and the investment in power grid projects was 482.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. - **Terminal Market - Real Estate**: From January to October, China's real estate development investment was 7.3563 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%, and residential investment was 5.6595 trillion yuan, a decrease of 13.8%. - **Terminal Market - Automobile**: From January to October 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 27.692 million and 27.687 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13.2% and 12.4% respectively. The production and sales of new energy vehicles were 13.015 million and 12.943 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 33.1% and 32.7% respectively. It is estimated that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China will reach 18.5 million in 2026, with a copper consumption growth rate of about 15% and an absolute copper consumption increase of about 1.5 million tons. - **Terminal Market - Home Appliances**: In October 2025, China's air - conditioner output was 14.204 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 13.5%. The cumulative output from January to October was 230.344 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. The refrigerator output was 8.788 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 6.0%. The cumulative output from January to October was 89.959 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. The washing - machine output was 11.035 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2.0%. The cumulative output from January to October was 101.078 million units, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. The color - TV output was 18.04 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.7%. The cumulative output from January to October was 166.176 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. In October 2025, China's home - appliance export volume was 35.1907 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. From January to October, the export volume was 371.1632 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. - **Terminal Market - Photovoltaic and Wind Power**: As of the end of October 2025, China's total power - generation installed capacity was about 2.81 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 12.6%. The solar - power installed capacity was about 540 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 47.0%, and the wind - power installed capacity was about 400 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 15.6%. It is estimated that the copper consumption in the photovoltaic and wind - power sectors will decline further in 2026. - **Global Copper Downstream Demand Structure Change and Supply - Demand Balance Forecast**: Since 2020, the global copper demand structure has changed significantly. It is estimated that the proportion of green copper demand (photovoltaic, wind power, new energy vehicles) will exceed that of construction demand in 2025. From 2026 to 2028, the global refined copper supply will be 27.97 million tons, 28.94 million tons, and 28.84 million tons respectively, with a year - on - year growth of 1.6%, 1.7%, and 1.4%. The demand will be 28.13 million tons, 28.8 million tons, and 29.45 million tons respectively, with a year - on - year growth of 2.9%, 2.4%, and 2.3%. There will be continuous shortages of 160,000 tons, 360,000 tons, and 610,000 tons from 2026 to 2028 [116]. 3.6 Technical Analysis - From a long - term perspective, the Shanghai copper weighted index has formed an upward breakthrough in a triangle pattern. It is estimated that it will have strong support at the level of 75,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton in 2026 [124].

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 华联期货铝年报 供需紧平衡，铝价重心有望继续上移 20251215 黄忠夏 0769-22119245 从业资格号：F0285615 交易咨询号：Z0010771 审核：姜世东，从业资格号:F03126164，交易咨询号：Z0020059 2 国际形势 3 国内形势 4 宏观政策 5 基本面 6 技术面 1 年度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 年度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 u 宏观：展望2026年，预计中美关系或维持"斗而不破"，美国、欧洲进入降息周期，美元体系长期根基松动，人民币国际化迎来战 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global economic growth is slowing down, and the Fed has entered an interest - rate cut cycle, which may indirectly affect egg prices through inflation expectations. However, China's egg prices are mainly determined by domestic supply - demand relations [8]. - In 2025, the domestic egg market has a core contradiction of oversupply and weak demand. But the supply pressure is expected to ease in the future, and the egg price is expected to stabilize and rebound next year [15]. - The industrial subsidy policies may reduce the breeding cost in the long - term but may also lead to over - capacity expansion, while the environmental protection and epidemic prevention policies are beneficial to the long - term development of the industry [18]. - The egg market in 2025 is characterized by significant supply - demand imbalance. In December, the supply - demand pattern is shifting from loose to tight - balance, and the egg price has fundamental support, but the upside space is restricted [24]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs International Situation - The global economic growth slows down. The IMF predicts that the global GDP will grow by 3.2% in 2025 and may further slow down to 3.1% in 2026 [8]. - The Fed has cut interest rates, which may lead to inflation expectations and increase the cost of egg breeding, but the impact on China's egg prices is indirect [8]. - The global egg market scale in 2025 is $121.42 billion with a growth rate of 8.9%. Due to the impact of avian influenza, the egg prices in different countries have diverged, and China's exports may increase [11]. Domestic Situation - China's economic situation is generally stable, but domestic demand is insufficient. The GDP in the first three quarters of 2025 is 101.5 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5.2%, and the annual growth is expected to be about 5.0% [15]. - The continuous low egg price reflects the imbalance between supply and demand of agricultural products in China. Although the impact on CPI is limited, it is regarded as an inflation "wind - vane" [15]. - The domestic egg market has a core contradiction of oversupply and weak demand. The inventory of laying hens is at a high level, and the demand is affected by substitutes. The egg price is low, and the breeding profit is at a five - year low. However, the supply pressure is expected to ease [15]. Macro Policy - There are industrial support policies such as subsidies for farmers using self - bred improved varieties, and financial support policies like loan interest subsidies and policy - based insurance [18]. - Overall, industrial subsidy policies may lead to over - capacity, while environmental protection and epidemic prevention policies are beneficial to the long - term development of the industry [18]. Supply - Demand Fundamentals and Annual Viewpoint Strategy - In November 2025, the national inventory of laying hens was about 1.307 billion, showing a slight decline. In December, the number of newly - opened laying hens will continue to decrease, and the inventory is expected to decline but remain at a high level [22][49]. - As of December 12, the average price in the main production areas was 3.09 yuan per catty. In the short term, the egg price is under pressure, while in the medium term, the supply - demand expectation has improved [22][36]. - The egg market in 2025 is characterized by supply - demand imbalance. The supply - demand pattern is changing, and the egg price has support but limited upside. The strategy is that the main contract fluctuates widely at a low level, and long positions in far - month contracts and call options can be considered in the medium term [24]. Technical Analysis - In the short term, the JD2603 contract shows a downward - oscillating trend, with the 5 - day moving average in a short - selling arrangement. The K - line may indicate a short - term rebound, but the 20 - day moving average is a strong resistance [103]. - In the medium - term on the weekly level, there is a "double - top" prototype, and if the neck - line support at about 3012 points is broken, the price may fall further [103]. - The support level is 2937 - 3000, and the resistance level is 3150 - 3195 [104].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the supply - demand situation of industrial silicon will remain loose, with an expected supply growth rate of about 8% and a demand growth rate of about 5%, and the surplus is expected to further expand. For trading strategies, it is recommended to short SI2601 at high prices, buy put options, or adopt an arbitrage strategy of shorting industrial silicon and going long on polysilicon [9]. - In 2026, the supply and demand of polysilicon are expected to increase slightly, continue to improve, and basically reach a balanced state. The recommended strategy is to go long on PS2601 at low prices, buy call options, or adopt an arbitrage strategy of shorting industrial silicon and going long on polysilicon [10]. - The "Short SI2605 + Long PS2605" arbitrage strategy is recommended. When the PS2605 - 5SI2605 spread is in the range of 7500 - 8500, build a position at a ratio of 3 to 1. The reason is that the anti - involution policy is conducive to the spread expansion [43]. Summary by Directory Annual Viewpoint Industrial Silicon - In 2025, the spot and futures prices of industrial silicon showed a pattern of first decline, then rise, and then oscillation. The annual production capacity remained at a high level, with no substantial signs of capacity clearance. In 2026, the supply is expected to remain loose. The demand from polysilicon may decline, while organic silicon and aluminum alloy demand will grow steadily. The cost decreased in 2025, but most silicon plants had limited profit space. The futures inventory is low, while the spot inventory is high. In 2026, the supply is expected to increase by about 8%, and the demand by about 5%, with a continued loose supply - demand pattern [9]. Polysilicon - In 2025, the polysilicon price fluctuated greatly in a "V" shape. The production capacity increased in 2025, but the output decreased significantly due to losses and self - discipline production cuts. In 2026, if the supply - side reform progresses smoothly, the supply may increase slightly with demand. The domestic demand is weak, while the global demand will maintain a moderate growth. The cost decreased slightly in 2025, and the profit improved significantly. The inventory is high. In 2026, the supply and demand are expected to increase slightly and basically reach a balanced state [10]. Cost and Profit - In 2025, the power consumption of industrial silicon decreased, and the prices of raw materials such as silicon coal and electrodes declined, driving the production cost down. The full - cost of industrial silicon in the northwest region is mainly in the range of 7500 - 9000 yuan/ton, and in the southwest region, it is 8500 - 10000 yuan/ton during the wet season and 10000 - 11500 yuan/ton during the dry season, with an overall comprehensive cost of 8000 - 10000 yuan/ton [191]. Industry Chain Diagram - The industrial silicon industry chain involves raw materials such as petroleum coke, charcoal, and silicon ore. Industrial silicon can be processed into organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy, which are further used in various fields such as electronics, construction, and photovoltaic [47]. Industry International Situation - In 2025, the global industrial silicon trade pattern was structurally adjusted. China is the largest producer and exporter, with stable export volume but a decline in the export structure. The overseas production cost is high, and the capacity expansion willingness is low. The green certification requirements of multinational enterprises are increasing, which promotes the industry's transformation to low - carbon production. However, the overall green transformation of the industry still faces challenges [50][52][54]. Industry Domestic Situation - In 2025, the industrial silicon production capacity in China shifted westward, with the northwest region becoming the core production area. The domestic photovoltaic demand showed phased fluctuations and structural differentiation. The environmental protection inspection promoted the industry's transformation to low - carbon and intensive development, accelerating the clearance of small and medium - sized production capacities [57][59][61]. Supply - From January to November 2025, the cumulative production of industrial silicon was 3.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.39%. The supply pressure was relieved to some extent. In 2026, there is an expectation of supply recovery. The new production capacity in 2025 - 2026 is mainly concentrated in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and other regions, with a total of 1.88 million tons [73][82]. Demand - From January to October 2025, the cumulative actual consumption of industrial silicon was 2.6612 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.26%. Polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy are the main downstream consumers, accounting for 50%, 30%, and 16% respectively. In the future, the polysilicon demand may decline, the organic silicon demand is weak, and the aluminum alloy demand will grow steadily but with limited impact on the overall demand [117]. Inventory - The high inventory of industrial silicon has been the main factor suppressing the market. The inventory increased slightly in 2025, and it is expected to continue to increase slightly in 2026. The polysilicon inventory is also high, and the inventory - building situation continues [31][10]. Technical Analysis - In the 2025 market, using the fast - line crossing above the slow - line as a buying signal had an accuracy rate higher than 75%. The fast - line is generally defined as the 5 - day moving average, and the slow - line as the 20, 40, or 60 - day moving average [245].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 华联期货螺纹钢年报 建筑需求疲软拖累，关注政策扰动供应 20251215 孙伟涛 0769-222110802 从业资格号：F0276620 交易咨询号：Z0014688 审核：姜世东，从业资格号:F03126164，交易咨询号：Z0020059 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 u 宏观：国内坚持稳中求进的工作总基调，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策。继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度 宽松的货币政策。外部环境方面，海外贸易摩擦加剧对出口带来压力，但国内产业优势韧性尚可，出口向中高 端转化。全球降息预期虽受到各方面因素约束，美联储降息扩表仍有利于全球流动性。 u 供应：市场预计2026年粗钢产量进一步压减1.5%–2%，政策导向"支持先进、倒逼落后" ，电炉钢、氢冶金、 高端特钢项目享受差别化减量置换支持。行业反内卷将以减碳提质、绿色转型等形式进行约束 ...