1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, Shanghai nickel rebounded sharply with wide - range fluctuations at a low level. New policy disturbance risks remain, such as the reduction of new policy quotas in Indonesia's 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB). The release of Indonesia's MHP capacity suppresses prices. After the high - level of imported nickel shows some improvement, nickel inventories continue to increase. Downstream stainless - steel production and inventory are at high levels. It is expected that nickel prices will experience more intense low - level fluctuations overall [7]. - In terms of strategy, short - term long - position trading is recommended for the main contract of Shanghai nickel. For options, lightly buy out - of - the - money call and put options. Later, attention should be paid to changes in the mine end, stainless - steel production, and Indonesia's nickel element exports [7]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1. Week - long Viewpoints and Strategies - **Market Situation**: Shanghai nickel had a sharp and volatile rebound at a low level last week. The RMB exchange rate is approaching the "7" mark. In November, the total social electricity consumption was 835.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%, with the electricity consumption of the charging and swapping service industry increasing by 60.2% year - on - year. Indonesia may change its mining policy [7]. - **Supply**: In 2025, the RKAB approval quota provides sufficient raw materials for smelters, but there are still risks of new policy quota reduction in Indonesia's 2026 RKAB. China's nickel imports are large, remaining at a high level in November. In November, domestic ferronickel production was at a low level, while Indonesia's remained high. The operating rate of nickel sulfate enterprises rebounded, and the output in November increased slightly month - on - month. In November 2025, the total domestic refined nickel output was 28,192 tons, a month - on - month decline from the high level [7]. - **Demand**: In November, stainless - steel production declined slightly month - on - month, and it is expected to be restricted in December. Domestic stainless - steel inventory is still high, but the absolute value has decreased. In the new energy industry chain, the market share of ternary batteries is declining, but the output of ternary materials has increased significantly in recent months [7]. - **Inventory**: Last week, LME nickel inventory decreased slightly month - on - month, SHFE inventory increased month - on - month, and refined nickel social inventory increased slightly compared with last week [7]. 3.2. Industrial Chain Structure - The nickel industrial chain includes nickel ore (laterite nickel ore, sulfide nickel ore), wet - process intermediates, ferronickel, high - grade nickel matte, nickel sulfate, electrolytic nickel, and downstream products such as stainless steel, batteries, electroplating, and alloys [9]. 3.3. Spot and Futures Markets - The report presents charts of LME nickel premium/discount (spot/3 months, in US dollars per ton) and SHFE electrolytic nickel main contract basis (in yuan per ton) [11]. 3.4. Supply Side - **Nickel Ore**: In 2024, China's imports of Philippine nickel ore decreased significantly, with an import volume of 36.5763 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.7%. In October - November 2025, imports were 468,280 tons and 333,940 tons respectively, showing a continued month - on - month decline [19]. - **Ferronickel**: In 2024, Indonesia's ferronickel output was 1.5138 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. In November 2025, the output was 157,400 tons, with a slight month - on - month increase and still at a high level. In 2024, domestic ferronickel output was 296,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.9%. In November 2025, the output was 22,000 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease and still at a low level. In November 2025, China's ferronickel imports were 895,000 tons, showing a month - on - month decline, and the inventory was 22,500 tons, remaining stable [24][28]. - **Refined Nickel**: In 2025, with the continuous release of electrowinning nickel capacity, the supply of pure nickel continued to expand. In November 2025, the total domestic refined nickel output was 28,192 tons, a month - on - month decline from the high level. In September - October 2025, the apparent consumption was 33,051.88 tons and 22,949.39 tons respectively. In November 2025, China's nickel imports were 233,000 tons, remaining at a high level, and exports were 13,300 tons, a slight month - on - month decline [31][35]. 3.5. Intermediates - **Wet - process Intermediates**: In November 2025, Indonesia's MHP output was 40,100 tons, a slight month - on - month decline but still at a historical high [42]. - **High - grade Nickel Matte**: Indonesia's high - grade nickel matte output growth was relatively pressured this year. In 2024, the output was 267,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.54%. In October - November 2025, the output was 29,800 tons and 31,200 tons respectively. From the project planning perspective, there are many planned intermediate - product production capacities from 2025 - 2027 [47]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: In November 2025, the output was 30,735.4 tons, a month - on - month decrease. In October - November 2025, nickel sulfate imports were 22,055 tons and 31,817.9 tons respectively [51]. 3.6. Demand Side - **Stainless - steel Demand**: In November 2025, stainless - steel production was 3.4931 million tons, showing a slight decline from the high level. The latest total social stainless - steel inventory was 992,960 tons, a slight month - on - month decline [57]. - **Cathode Material Demand**: From the perspective of power - battery structure, the market share of ternary batteries has shrunk to nearly 20%. It is expected that in 2025, driven by the trade - in policy, the growth of total terminal demand will still have inertia. In November 2025, the output of ternary cathode materials was 83,200 tons, continuing to rebound [62]. 3.7. Inventory Side - **Social and Bonded - area Inventory**: As of December 19, 2025, the refined nickel social inventory was 55,988 tons, showing a slight increase compared with last week [69]. - **Exchange Inventory**: As of December 23, 2025, the LME nickel inventory was 254,388 tons, a slight month - on - month increase. As of December 24, 2025, the SHFE inventory was 38,428 tons, a slight month - on - month increase [75].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report anticipates that the global electrolytic aluminum supply will remain tight next year and that aluminum prices are expected to stay strong in the medium to long term due to supply constraints and growing demand from emerging industries [7]. - The recommended strategy is to continue holding medium - term long positions and engage in short - term rolling long positions, with the reference support range for SHFE Aluminum 2603 at 21,600 - 21,700 yuan/ton [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Views and Strategies - **Macro**: The US economy shows resilience, with a 4.3% growth in real GDP in Q3 2025. There are expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy after a potential change in the Fed Chair [7]. - **Supply**: China's electrolytic aluminum capacity expansion is restricted. Indonesia's planned new capacity is large but limited in actual increase in 2025. European production declined due to the energy crisis, and US output dropped for five consecutive years. Global supply is expected to be tight in the coming year [7]. - **Demand**: The domestic real - estate market is sluggish, but its impact on aluminum demand is reduced. New energy vehicles, energy storage, AI, and power grid construction in China and abroad are driving aluminum demand [7]. - **Inventory**: China's social aluminum inventory slightly increased due to rising prices and the end - of - year off - season [7]. - **View**: Medium - to long - term aluminum prices are expected to remain strong [7]. - **Strategy**: Hold medium - term long positions and do short - term rolling long positions, with SHFE Aluminum 2603 supported at 21,600 - 21,700 yuan/ton [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - The report includes charts of domestic aluminum futures and spot prices, A00 aluminum ingot spot premiums/discounts, LME aluminum prices, and the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, but no specific data analysis is provided [11][16] 3. Supply and Inventory - **Bauxite**: In November 2025, China imported 15.11 million tons of bauxite, a 22.5% year - on - year increase. From January to November 2025, cumulative imports were 187 million tons, a 29.61% increase. Guinea and Australia are major sources. Guinea's new production projects are expected to increase output [23][25][26]. - **Alumina**: In November 2025, China's alumina production was 8.138 million tons, an 8.4% year - on - year increase for January - November. There was a net export of 1.373 million tons from January to November. New domestic and overseas capacities are expected in 2025 and 2026 [39][43]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In November 2025, the cost of electrolytic aluminum increased, while profits grew. The built - in capacity was 45.158 million tons, and the operating rate was 96.28%. Global and domestic production increased slightly in 2025. Import and export data showed changes in 2025. LME and domestic social inventories were reported as of December 2025 [53][59][60] 4. Primary Processing and Terminal Markets - **Aluminum Alloys**: In November 2025, China's aluminum alloy production was 1.739 million tons, with a 15.8% increase from January to November [79]. - **Aluminum Products**: In November 2025, China's aluminum product production was 5.931 million tons, a slight decrease. Import and export volumes of unforged aluminum and aluminum products changed in 2025 [86][92]. - **Downstream Demand**: The demand structure of electrolytic aluminum in China is changing. The real - estate sector's demand is decreasing, while transportation, power, and other sectors are growing. Forecasts for transportation, power, and energy storage show an upward trend in aluminum demand [100][105][106] 5. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet and Industrial Chain Structure - **Supply - Demand Forecast**: In 2026, China's electrolytic aluminum is expected to be in a tight balance, and the global market is also expected to be in a tight balance. After 2027, the global supply - demand gap may widen [110]. - **Industrial Chain Structure**: No specific content provided in the report

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The short - term stock index may fluctuate, but the trend remains unchanged, and it is expected to attack the previous high. The shock digestion since November has entered the end, and from December to January of the next year, it is likely to enter the window period of cross - year layout. The market is expected to show a shock climb again. The mid - term view of being bullish on the stock index remains unchanged. It is recommended to layout and go long on the spring market of the stock index. In terms of operation, hold mid - term long positions and continue to add positions opportunistically; hold call options. [13] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Views and Strategies Fundamental Views - Last week, the broader market continued to rebound and continuously stood above the 60 - day moving average. The four major indexes all rose, with the small - and medium - cap indexes leading the gains. Most of the style indexes rose, with the growth and cyclical style indexes leading the gains, and only the consumer style index falling. Most of the Shenwan industries rose, with the non - ferrous metals, military, electrical equipment, and electronics sectors leading the gains, while the tourism, banking, coal, and food and beverage sectors led the losses. [8][18][21] - In November 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. The supply and demand sides of the manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly in November, with the new export orders rebounding by a relatively large 1.7%, which is related to the mitigation of Sino - US tariffs; the ex - factory price and the purchase price of raw materials rebounded again after two months of decline. [8][36] - The growth rate of medium - and long - term credit has been falling continuously for 30 months to 5.89% as of November 2025, and continues to decline. [8][47] - The Politburo set the tone for the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize, and boost the capital market; the State Council issued the new Nine - Article Guidelines to strongly support investor returns; the central bank created two new types of monetary policy tools; the implementation plan for promoting the entry of medium - and long - term funds into the market was officially released, which is expected to add 800 billion yuan of long - term funds to the A - share market annually. [8][55] - The A - share performance showed signs of stabilization in the first quarter, declined in the second quarter, and continued to stabilize and rebound in the third quarter. The performance of the four major indexes rebounded again in the third quarter of 2025. [8][73][77] - The Shanghai Composite Index's valuation is 16.5341, with an upper - limit value of 15.66, and it is at the 87.09th percentile since 2010, at a relatively high level since 2010. However, as performance rises, the valuation will decline. The ChiNext valuation is at a relatively low level. [10][90][92] - In terms of margin trading, the net inflow in 2024 was 274.8 billion yuan; as of December 25, 2025, the net inflow in 2025 was 674.3 billion yuan, and the net inflow in the first five trading days was 45.9 billion yuan. The scale of private securities investment funds increased by 1.7946 trillion yuan this year, and the total scale is currently 7.0076 trillion yuan. The newly registered scale this year is 386 billion yuan. The market value of A - shares held by insurance funds increased by 552.4 billion yuan in the third quarter of 2025, with a month - on - month increase of 18.00%. As of September 30, 2025, the newly established share of stock - type funds was 323.3 billion, and that of hybrid funds was 103.6 billion. The net inflow of index funds in 2025 was 104.9 billion yuan, while the net outflow of active equity funds was 444.9 billion yuan. From April 7 to December 19, 2025, the ETF scale increased by 176.3 billion yuan, and last week it increased by 47.3 billion yuan. As of December 19, the net inflow of ETF funds this year was 79.3 billion yuan. [11][97][101] Strategy Views and Outlook - The broader market fluctuated and rose for eight consecutive days last Friday, with a dive during the session and the trading volume increased to more than 2 trillion yuan, remaining above the 60 - day moving average. The market sentiment declined, and there may be short - term fluctuations, but the trend remains unchanged, and it is expected to attack the previous high. It is recommended to layout and go long on the spring market of the stock index. In terms of operation, hold mid - term long positions and continue to add positions opportunistically; hold call options. [13] 2. Index Industry Trend Review - Last week, the broader market continued to rebound and continuously stood above the 60 - day moving average. The four major indexes all rose, with the small - and medium - cap indexes leading the gains. Most of the style indexes rose, with the growth and cyclical style indexes leading the gains, and only the consumer style index falling. Most of the Shenwan industries rose, with the non - ferrous metals, military, electrical equipment, and electronics sectors leading the gains, while the tourism, banking, coal, and food and beverage sectors led the losses. [8][18][21] 3. Main Contract and Basis Trend - The four major indexes continued to rebound. In terms of the basis, it started from the quarterly main contract and is at a relatively high level. In terms of the arbitrage of each main contract, IC/IF and IC/IH fluctuated and stabilized, IH/IF stabilized; IM/IF and IM/IH fluctuated weakly; IM/IC fluctuated and declined. [25][30] 4. Policy and Economy Economy - In November 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. The supply and demand sides of the manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly in November, with the new export orders rebounding by a relatively large 1.7%, which is related to the mitigation of Sino - US tariffs; the ex - factory price and the purchase price of raw materials rebounded again after two months of decline. [36] - Generally, PPI leads the inventory cycle. PPI bottomed out and rebounded in June 2023, weakened after two months, and the decline has been narrowing continuously since March 2024. The decline of PPI has been narrowing again since November 2025. In October, the operating revenue of industrial enterprises fell to 1.8%, the inventory continued to rise to 3.7%, demand declined, and there was passive inventory replenishment. [39] - China's social financing scale in November was 2488.5 billion yuan, an increase of 152.8 billion yuan compared with the same period last year. Among them, new RMB loans were 405.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 117 billion yuan compared with the same period last year, mainly due to a decrease of 206.3 billion yuan in household loans. Government bonds were 1204.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 106 billion yuan compared with the same period last year. [42] - The growth rate of medium - and long - term credit has been falling continuously for 30 months to 5.89% as of November 2025, and continues to decline. [47] Policy - New Nine - Article Guidelines: It aims to improve the overall quality of listed companies from the source and promote listed companies to pay more attention to rewarding shareholders. [51] - Implementation Plan for Promoting the Entry of Medium - and Long - Term Funds into the Market: It includes measures such as increasing the actual investment ratio, extending the assessment period, and forming a joint force to implement incremental policies, which is expected to bring a large amount of long - term funds into the A - share market. [54] - The Politburo set the tone for the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize, and boost the capital market, including measures to boost the capital market, promote the entry of medium - and long - term funds, support mergers and acquisitions of listed companies, and promote the stable development of the real estate market. [55] - The central bank created new monetary policy tools, including a swap facility for securities, funds, and insurance companies and a stock repurchase and increase re - loan, and carried out MLF operations and reverse repurchase operations, and adjusted relevant interest rates. [58] - A large - scale debt - resolution measure was announced, which will directly increase 10 trillion yuan of local debt - resolution funds and significantly reduce the local debt - resolution pressure. [59] - Accelerate the construction of first - class investment banks and investment institutions to better promote the high - quality development of the capital market, including implementing differentiated supervision for different types of securities companies. [60] - The 14th Five - Year Plan: It is a crucial five - year period with multiple strategic goals to be achieved. It involves aspects such as the international trade pattern, Sino - US relations, supply - chain reconstruction, and domestic economic development. [63] - The US mid - term elections: The policy environment in the next year will be more favorable for risk assets. The mid - term election schedule and expected fiscal support are also mentioned. [64][66] 5. Revenue and Net Profit of Each Index - The A - share performance showed signs of stabilization in the first quarter, declined in the second quarter, and continued to stabilize and rebound in the third quarter. The performance of the four major indexes rebounded again in the third quarter of 2025. [73][77] 6. Valuation - The Shanghai Composite Index's valuation is 16.5341, with an upper - limit value of 15.66, and it is at the 87.09th percentile since 2010, at a relatively high level since 2010. However, as performance rises, the valuation will decline. The ChiNext valuation is at a relatively low level. [10][90][92] 7. Federal Reserve Interest Rate - Not provided in the given content 8. Capital Flow - In terms of margin trading, the net inflow in 2024 was 274.8 billion yuan; as of December 25, 2025, the net inflow in 2025 was 674.3 billion yuan, and the net inflow in the first five trading days was 45.9 billion yuan. [97] - The scale of private securities investment funds increased by 1.7946 trillion yuan this year, and the total scale is currently 7.0076 trillion yuan. The newly registered scale this year is 386 billion yuan. [101] - The market value of A - shares held by insurance funds increased by 552.4 billion yuan in the third quarter of 2025, with a month - on - month increase of 18.00%, and the market value of A - shares held by insurance funds increased by 1.193 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with an increase of 758.4 billion yuan after deducting the scale growth. [103][104] - The market value of the national team increased by 4 billion in the third quarter, with little change, while the CSI 300 index rose by 17.9%. The mid - and long - term A - share market value increased by nearly 90 billion in the third quarter, and the market value of A - shares held by mid - and long - term A - share investment entities increased by 1.8145 trillion in the first three quarters of 2025. [106][108] - From April 7 to December 19, 2025, the ETF scale increased by 204 billion yuan; last week, the ETF scale continued to increase by 27.7 billion yuan. As of December 26, the net inflow of ETF funds this year was 107 billion yuan. [111] - As of September 30, 2025, the newly established share of stock - type funds was 323.3 billion, and that of hybrid funds was 103.6 billion. [117] - In October 2025, the deposits of non - bank financial institutions increased by 1.8574 trillion yuan again, and the total deposits of non - bank financial institutions increased by 6.6688 trillion yuan this year. Overall, funds are flowing from the banking system to non - bank channels such as the capital market and wealth management products. [121] - As of last weekend, the IPO financing in 2023 was 356.5 billion yuan; in 2024, it was 67.3 billion yuan; in 2025, it was 125.3 billion yuan. [129] - Last week, the net reduction of major shareholders in the secondary market was 14.2 billion yuan, at a relatively high level. [134] - The unlocking volume in the first half of 2026 is relatively small. [138] 9. Technical Analysis - The daily - line trend charts of the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index are provided, showing the price trends of these indexes from December 26, 2024, to December 23, 2025. [142][144][146][148]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel market: Recently, steel mill profits have recovered, and the output of rebar has slightly increased from a low level. Downstream consumption is gradually weakening, and the inventory depletion rate is slowing down. In the short - term, the market continues the pattern of weak supply and demand, and the fundamentals have insufficient driving force for prices. However, boosted by the warming market atmosphere and the increasing expectation of supply - tightening policies, the futures market shows a low - level and relatively strong oscillation. The 2605 contract is expected to oscillate within the range of 3080 - 3160 [7]. - Iron ore market: In terms of the industry, the latest overseas iron ore shipments and domestic arrivals have slightly decreased, but they are still high year - on - year, and port inventories continue to rise, indicating strong iron ore supply. On the demand side, as the iron ore output stabilizes after the recovery of steel mill profits, it supports the demand for raw materials, and steel mill inventories increase slightly. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of iron ore is relatively loose, but the short - term market expects marginal improvement in supply and demand, and the confidence in winter stockpiling and replenishment has slightly increased. It is expected that iron ore prices will continue to oscillate strongly. The iron ore 2605 contract should pay attention to the pressure in the range of 790 - 820 yuan/ton [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Views and Strategies - **Inventory**: The inventory of the five major steel products continues to decline. By variety, rebar inventory continues to decrease, with a slight increase in steel mill inventory and a continuous decrease in social inventory; the factory and social inventories of hot - rolled coils and wire rods both decrease slightly; the factory inventory of cold - rolled products increases while the social inventory decreases; for medium - thick plates, the decrease in factory inventory is less than the increase in social inventory. As the off - season deepens, the inventory depletion gradually slows down [7]. - **Supply**: The molten iron output of steel mills stops falling and stabilizes. The decline in coke prices allows steel mill profits to recover, and the production reduction intensity slows down. The output of rebar and hot - rolled coils both increase slightly. Recently, the profitability rate of steel mills has rebounded, and some blast furnaces have resumed production, supporting the demand for raw materials [7]. - **Demand**: The total apparent demand for the five major steel products continues to shrink. As the weather gets colder, terminal consumption gradually weakens. In addition, the enthusiasm for winter stockpiling among middle and lower - stream enterprises is low, and it is expected that demand will further decline [7]. - **Iron ore Supply**: In the latest period (20251215 - 1221), the global iron ore shipment volume and domestic arrivals have decreased month - on - month. The global iron ore shipment volume is 3464.5 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 128.0 million tons. Among them, the shipment volume from Australia is 1889.2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 101.3 million tons, and the shipment volume from Brazil is 859.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 39.4 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China is 2790.2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 137.9 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China is 2646.7 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 76.7 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports is 1256.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 102.1 million tons [9]. - **Iron ore Demand**: As of December 26, 2025, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 78.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.15 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate is 84.94%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points; the profitability rate of steel mills is 37.23%, a month - on - month increase of 1.30 percentage points; the daily average molten iron output is 226.58 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 million tons. Recently, steel mill profits have rebounded month - on - month, capacity utilization has increased, and molten iron output has remained stable month - on - month [9]. - **Iron ore Inventory**: As of December 26, 2025, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China is 16619.96 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 394.43 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume is 328.76 million tons, an increase of 0.53 million tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills across the country is 8860.19 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 136.24 million tons; the daily consumption of imported ore by the current sample steel mills is 280.04 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.51 million tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 31.64 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.54 days. Iron ore port inventories continue to increase, and steel mill inventories increase month - on - month [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - As of December 26, 2025, the closing price of the RB2605 contract is 3118 yuan/ton; the closing price of the HC2605 contract is 3283 yuan/ton. The basis of the Shanghai rebar main contract is 172 yuan/ton; the basis of the Shanghai hot - rolled coil main contract is - 13 yuan/ton [21]. - As of December 26, 2025, the RB05 - 10 contract spread closes at - 49 yuan/ton; the HC05 - 10 contract spread closes at - 13 yuan/ton. The spot screw - coil spread in Shanghai is - 13 yuan/ton, and the main contract screw - coil spread is - 165 yuan/ton [42]. 3.3 Demand Side - The total apparent demand for the five major steel products continues to shrink. As the weather gets colder, terminal consumption gradually weakens, and the enthusiasm for winter stockpiling among middle and lower - stream enterprises is low, so demand is expected to further decline [7]. 3.4 Inventory Side - The inventory of the five major steel products continues to decline, but as the off - season deepens, the inventory depletion gradually slows down. By variety, the inventory changes vary [7]. - As of December 26, 2025, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China is 16619.96 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 394.43 million tons; the total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills across the country is 8860.19 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 136.24 million tons [9]. 3.5 Supply Side - The molten iron output of steel mills stops falling and stabilizes. The decline in coke prices allows steel mill profits to recover, and the production reduction intensity slows down. The output of rebar and hot - rolled coils both increase slightly. Recently, the profitability rate of steel mills has rebounded, and some blast furnaces have resumed production, supporting the demand for raw materials [7]. 3.6 Raw Material - Iron Ore - **Supply**: From December 15 to December 21, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume is 3464.5 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 128.0 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia is 1889.2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 101.3 million tons, and the shipment volume from Brazil is 859.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 39.4 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China is 2790.2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 137.9 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China is 2646.7 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 76.7 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports is 1256.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 102.1 million tons [9][148][165]. - **Demand**: As of December 26, 2025, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 78.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.15 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate is 84.94%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points; the profitability rate of steel mills is 37.23%, a month - on - month increase of 1.30 percentage points; the daily average molten iron output is 226.58 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 million tons [9]. - **Inventory**: As of December 26, 2025, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China is 16619.96 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 394.43 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume is 328.76 million tons, an increase of 0.53 million tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills across the country is 8860.19 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 136.24 million tons; the daily consumption of imported ore by the current sample steel mills is 280.04 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.51 million tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 31.64 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.54 days [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report Industrial Silicon - This week (2025.12.19 - 2025.12.26), the spot price of industrial silicon trended upward, with the benchmark spot price at 8800 yuan/ton on December 26, up 0.79% from December 19. The futures market's main contract fluctuated downward, but with a weekly increase of 2.19%. The current main - month contract's open interest is about 224,700 lots [9]. - Supply slightly increased as production in Yunnan and Sichuan decreased, while that in the Northwest increased, and Hunan stopped production entirely. However, due to weak downstream demand, this change had no significant market impact [9]. - Demand for industrial silicon decreased as the supply of polysilicon continued to shrink in December, the domestic silicone industry's production reduction advanced, and the output of aluminum rods slightly decreased. Exports in November 2025 were 54,900 tons, up 21.78% month - on - month and 3.72% year - on - year. From January to November, the total export was 661,500 tons, showing an increase compared to previous months [9]. - Costs were basically stable this week, and profits increased due to stable costs and rising market prices [9]. - Overall inventory trended upward [9]. - Looking ahead, with stable supply, weak downstream and terminal demand, and high inventory, the market is expected to decline further. Suggested strategies include shorting si2605 at high prices, with an expected operating range of 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton; buying put options; or using an arbitrage strategy of shorting industrial silicon and going long on polysilicon [9]. Polysilicon - This week (2025.12.19 - 2025.12.26), the spot price of polysilicon fluctuated within a range. The benchmark spot price on December 26 was 56,105 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from December 19. The futures market's main contract fluctuated upward, but with a weekly decrease of 2.14%. The current main - month contract's open interest is about 119,100 lots [11]. - Supply continued to shrink in December, with a small overall decline. Although some enterprises in the Southwest reduced production due to the dry season, there was an increase in the Northwest. The domestic polysilicon output in December is expected to be about 115,000 tons, and supply may continue to decline slightly next month [11]. - Overall demand contracted due to the off - season, and downstream procurement was sluggish due to production cuts and high inventory, making it difficult for industry demand to recover quickly. Short - term attention should be paid to inventory digestion and downstream production scheduling changes [11]. - Costs increased slightly this week, and profits decreased slightly [11]. - The current polysilicon industry inventory is high and difficult to reverse substantially. The overall reduction in supply was limited, and it did not fully match the decline in demand [11]. - Most polysilicon enterprises have raised new order quotes to 65,000 yuan/ton, reflecting their optimistic expectations and price - support intentions. The price difference between quotes and transactions is a game between cost support from production cuts and cautious procurement due to weak downstream demand. The establishment of the purchase and storage platform is seen as a potential positive factor, improving market sentiment and transaction atmosphere. Suggested strategies include going long on PS2605 at low prices, with an expected operating range of 55,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton; buying call options; or using an arbitrage strategy of shorting industrial silicon and going long on polysilicon [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Week - on - Week Views and Hot News - **Hot News**: On December 26, the State Administration for Market Regulation conducted compliance guidance on price competition in the photovoltaic industry in Hefei, Anhui. It pointed out "involution - style" competition issues in the industry. On December 24, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange added several polysilicon futures delivery warehouses. On December 23, it restricted the single - day opening volume of non - futures company members or customers in polysilicon futures. On December 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that 2026 would be a critical period for photovoltaic industry governance. On December 12, the "polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform" was officially established [6]. - **Industrial Silicon Week - on - Week View**: See the core views section above [9]. - **Polysilicon Week - on - Week View**: See the core views section above [11]. Industry Structure - The industrial silicon industry chain includes raw materials such as petroleum coke, charcoal, etc., which are used to produce industrial silicon. Industrial silicon is further processed into organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloys, and these products are applied in various fields such as electronics, construction, and photovoltaics [17]. Spot and Futures Markets - **Spot Prices**: There are price charts for different grades and regions of industrial silicon, including 553 and 421 grades, in various ports and locations [23][24][29][31]. - **Futures Contracts**: There are charts for the closing and settlement prices of continuous and active contracts of industrial silicon [37][41]. Inventory - There are charts showing the industrial silicon industry inventory, factory inventory, market inventory, and futures inventory [50][54]. Cost and Profit - **Profit and Cost**: There are charts for the comprehensive profit and cost of all grades of industrial silicon [61]. - **Main Production Area Electricity Prices**: There are price charts for industrial silicon electricity in multiple main and non - main production areas [67][72][75][83][89]. - **Silica Stone Prices**: There are price charts for silica stone in different regions [95][99]. - **Petroleum Coke, Electrodes, and Silicon Coal**: There are price charts for petroleum coke, graphite electrodes, and silicon coal in different regions [102][108]. Supply - **Output**: There are charts for the weekly and monthly output, monthly capacity, and production start - up rate of industrial silicon [115][119]. - **Newly Added Capacity**: Multiple companies in different regions have newly added industrial silicon production capacity, with a total of 1.88 million tons [123]. Demand - **Consumption Overview**: There are charts for the consumption breakdown and structure of industrial silicon [126]. - **Polysilicon**: There are charts for the monthly output, price, factory inventory, cost, and profit of polysilicon [132][138]. - **Organic Silicon**: There are charts for the market price, intermediate production, production cost, and production profit of organic silicon in the East China region [143][149]. - **Aluminum Rods**: There are charts for the weekly and monthly output, price, and inventory of aluminum rods, as well as the output, start - up rate, and inventory of primary and secondary aluminum alloys [154][159][161][168][172]. - **Solar/PV**: There are charts for the cumulative output of solar cells and the price of battery cells [179]. Import and Export - There are charts for the import and export volumes of industrial silicon and polysilicon [189][193].

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货饲料周报 市场担忧海关政策收紧 豆菜粕短期或震荡偏强 20251228 邓丹 交易咨询号：Z0011401 从业资格号：F0300922 0769-22111252 审核：黄忠夏 从业资格号：F0285615 交易咨询号：Z0010771 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 基本面观点 ◆ 美豆方面，暂无可炒作的题材。 ◆ 在海关政策收紧的担忧下，预计豆菜粕短期或震荡偏强为主。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 ◆ 南美方面，南美主产区近期都有不错的降雨，有利已播大豆的生长。目前马托格罗索州和帕拉纳州最早播 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The daily consumption of thermal power continues to be lower than the same period in previous years. The core contradiction between high inventory and weak demand continues to intensify, and coal prices show a downward trend. The domestic methanol operating rate and production remain at a high level, while the international methanol operating rate drops to a low level. The import pressure will decrease in January next year, and the supply pressure will reduce. The operating rate of traditional downstream industries is at a low level, while the MTO operating rate is at a high level. Affected by winter seasonal factors, there is an expectation of a slight contraction in demand. During the cycle, the unloading is smooth, the import volume is high, and the port methanol inventory has rebounded to a high level. The methanol supply - demand situation is bearish. It is expected that methanol prices may mainly fluctuate weakly [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - demand Overview - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 40.67 tons, with an overall incremental expectation. The expected arrival volume of foreign ships remains high, the import apparent demand may remain weak, and the port methanol inventory is expected to continue to accumulate [11]. - **Supply**: The weekly production of Chinese methanol is expected to be about 2.0635 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of about 90.86%, a decrease from the current period. The estimated arrival plan of methanol import samples is 466,200 tons, including 388,200 tons of visible and 78,000 tons of invisible. The domestic trade is estimated to be around 25,000 - 30,000 tons [11]. - **Demand**: Some enterprises in East and Northwest China continue to reduce their loads, and the average weekly operating rate of the industry is expected to decline slightly. Among traditional demands, the operating rates of glacial acetic acid and chlorides are expected to increase, while those of formaldehyde and dimethyl ether are expected to decrease [11]. - **Industrial Chain Profits**: The import profit remains at a loss of - 17 yuan/ton. The profit of coal - to - methanol production in Inner Mongolia remains stable at a loss of - 176 yuan/ton, and the downstream profit is at a large loss. The profit of MTO in East China remains at a loss of - 1,003 yuan/ton [11]. - **Coal Prices**: The daily consumption of thermal power continues to be lower than the same period in previous years. The core contradiction between high inventory and weak demand continues to intensify, and coal prices show a downward trend [11][13]. 3.2 Strategies - **Unilateral and Options**: Operate bearishly within the range. For options, sell straddle options [13]. - **MA Unilateral Strategy (Medium - term)**: Short MA605. As of December 25, the price of MA605 is 2,148 yuan. The logic is that the import volume is high, the traditional demand is poor, and the port inventory is at a relatively high level. The operation suggestion is to operate bearishly [17]. - **PP - 3MA Strategy**: Short the PP - 3MA spread. As of December 25, the spread of the May contract is - 220 yuan. The logic is that PP will still be in the peak production period in 2026, and the supply pressure of PP is greater than that of methanol. The new production capacity of methanol downstream is large, and the demand for methanol is resilient. However, recently, coal prices have fallen, and the short - term spread trend has high uncertainty. The operation suggestion is to wait and see or short on rallies [19]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Prices - **Spot Price**: As of December 15, the spot price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu is 2,145 yuan/ton [25]. - **Basis**: As of December 25, the basis relative to the May contract is - 17 yuan/ton [25]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Capacity Utilization and Production**: Last week (December 19 - 25, 2025), the production of Chinese methanol was 2,072,175 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,200 tons. The device capacity utilization rate was 91.24%, a week - on - week increase of 0.80% [83]. - **International Operating Rate and Imports**: From December 18 - 24, 2025, the Chinese methanol sample arrival volume was 528,300 tons, including 498,300 tons of foreign ships (403,300 tons of visible and 95,000 tons of invisible) and 30,000 tons of domestic trade ships [91]. - **New Capacity in 2025**: In 2025, China's new methanol production capacity is about 7.43 million tons, with a capacity increase of about 7.3% [94]. - **New Capacity in 2026**: In 2026, China's new methanol production capacity is about 7.87 million tons, with a capacity increase of about 7.3% [95][125]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Apparent Consumption**: From January to November, the apparent consumption of methanol was 95.22 million tons, an increase of 9.75% [101]. - **Methanol - to - Olefins Operating Rate and Production**: The MTO operating rate is 88.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.44%. The loads of MTO enterprises in East and Northwest China have slightly decreased, and the average weekly operating rate of the industry continues to decline [105]. - **Traditional Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rates of traditional downstream industries are relatively low [109]. - **Downstream Purchasing Volume**: Not specifically summarized in the text. - **Production Enterprise Order Volume**: As of December 24, 2025, the pending orders of sample enterprises are 193,600 tons, a decrease of 26,800 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 12.16% [123]. 3.6 Inventory - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of December 24, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 404,000 tons, an increase of 12,800 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 3.28% [131]. - **Port Inventory**: As of December 24, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol port samples is 1.4125 million tons, an increase of 193,700 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 15.89%. The port inventory has significantly increased, mainly in Jiangsu [134]. - **Port Floating Storage**: Not specifically summarized in the text.

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 华联期货黄金周报 黄金盘中创历史新高，短期多单设 好止盈 20251228 段福林 0769-22116880 从业资格号：F3048935 交易咨询号：Z0015600 审核：黄忠夏，从业资格号：F0285615,交易咨询号：Z0010771 1 周度观点及策略 2 期现市场 3 通胀、利率 4 美国经济 5 黄金供需平衡表 6 汇率 美元指数 7 黄金内外价差 8 黄金基差 9 金银油比价 ＆ 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点及策略 基本面观点 u 风险因素：1、美联储加息；2、美国通胀一直下行；3、美国财政赤字率下行。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (from December 19 to December 26, 2025), the spot price of lithium carbonate rose significantly, with the benchmark spot price reaching 120,400 yuan/ton on December 26, a 16.89% increase from December 19. The main contract of lithium carbonate in the futures market fluctuated downward, with the latest transaction price at 130,520 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 17.16%. The current position of the main - month contract is about 577,000 lots [11]. - The supply of lithium carbonate increased slightly this week. The operating rate of domestic lithium salt plants remained high, the new capacity of salt - lake lithium extraction continued to be released, and the new capacity was still ramping up. The import volume of overseas raw materials increased year - on - year, but there was a shipping cycle [11]. - The overall downstream demand scheduling remained high. The demand in the energy storage field was strong. Although some lithium iron phosphate manufacturers started production line maintenance, the overall level was still high. The power battery entered the seasonal off - season, and the scheduling plan decreased month - on - month. Downstream material manufacturers were generally cautious, and their purchases were mainly for just - in - time replenishment [11]. - The price of lithium concentrate was supported by the sharp rise in the lithium carbonate futures price and remained high, providing rigid support for the cost side. The costs of self - owned mines and salt lakes remained stable. Against the background of high lithium carbonate spot and futures prices, the profits of enterprises with self - owned mines and salt lakes were the most substantial, and the profits of processing enterprises that purchased raw materials externally also improved compared with the previous period. The overall industry profit remained at a relatively high level [11]. - The total social inventory of lithium carbonate continued to decline, but the speed slowed down. Due to the high price, the downstream's willingness to receive goods weakened. The inventory of lithium salt plants decreased significantly, and most of the social inventory was transferred and concentrated in the trading sector. The futures warehouse receipt volume was at the level of 17,100 tons [11]. - Currently, the lithium carbonate market is in a stage of intense game between "strong expectation" and "weak reality". The optimistic expectation of energy storage demand and the continuous decline of industry inventory support the price. The enthusiasm of funds in the futures market is high, and attention should be paid to the risk of the futures price callback driving the sharp fluctuation of the spot market. The unilateral strategy can consider going long on LC2605 at low prices, with an expected operating range of 120,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton, or buying call options [11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - ly Viewpoints and Hot News 3.1.1 Hot News - On December 25, Wanrun New Energy announced that starting from December 28, 2025, the company would reduce production and conduct maintenance on some production lines as planned for about one month. This maintenance was expected to reduce the company's lithium iron phosphate output by 5,000 - 20,000 tons and have no significant impact on the company's production and operation [8]. - On December 24, relevant media reported that according to people close to CATL, the lithium mining project of Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., Ltd. in the Zhenkouli of Yifeng County - Jianxiawo of Fengxin County was expected to resume production around the Spring Festival [8]. - The Yichun Tendering Network in Jiangxi Province released the first environmental impact assessment information of the lithium mining project of Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., Ltd. in the Zhenkouli of Yifeng County - Jianxiawo of Fengxin County [8]. - On December 16, the Yichun Natural Resources Bureau planned to cancel the mining licenses of 27 projects such as the Wuqiao porcelain stone mine in Gao'an City. The bureau had publicized the 27 mining licenses to be cancelled, and they would be officially cancelled after the 30 - working - day publicity period [8]. - The lithium iron phosphate industry was experiencing a collective price increase. Many leading enterprises had sent clear price - increase notices to customers. A staff member of Longpan Technology said that there was indeed a price - increase trend in the industry, and the company was communicating with customers about the price increase [8]. - The lithium iron phosphate industry was promoting anti - involution. The China Chemical and Physical Power Supply Industry Association would issue a notice, suggesting that enterprises should use the industry's average cost range disclosed on November 18 as an important reference for quotation and not engage in low - price dumping below the cost line. The association would disclose the industry's average cost range monthly starting from this month to provide an authoritative regulatory basis for enterprise quotations [8]. 3.1.2 Week - ly Viewpoints - **Market Review**: The spot price of lithium carbonate rose significantly, and the futures price fluctuated downward but still had a weekly increase. The position of the main - month contract was about 577,000 lots [11]. - **Supply**: The output of lithium carbonate increased slightly. Domestic lithium salt plants had a high operating rate, new salt - lake lithium extraction capacity was released, and overseas raw material imports increased year - on - year [11]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream demand scheduling remained high. Energy storage demand was strong, while power battery demand entered the off - season. Downstream material manufacturers were cautious in purchasing [11]. - **Cost, Profit, and Inventory**: The price of lithium concentrate remained high, supporting the cost side. The costs of self - owned mines and salt lakes were stable, and industry profits were at a high level. The total social inventory continued to decline, and the futures warehouse receipt volume was 17,100 tons [11]. - **Outlook**: The market was in a game between "strong expectation" and "weak reality". Attention should be paid to the risk of futures price callback affecting the spot market [11]. - **Strategy**: Consider going long on LC2605 at low prices, with an expected operating range of 120,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton, or buying call options [11]. 3.2 Industry Pattern The report shows the lithium industry chain, including upstream raw materials (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake brine, lithium recycling), lithium salt products (lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide), materials (ternary materials, lithium hexafluorophosphate, lithium iron phosphate, lithium cobalt oxide, lithium manganate), lithium batteries (power - type lithium batteries, capacity - type lithium batteries), and terminal consumption (new energy vehicles, two - wheeled vehicles, 3C digital products, energy storage, glass ceramics, etc.). It also provides the global supply and demand proportions of each link [16]. 3.3 Spot and Futures Markets 3.3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active lithium carbonate contract was 130,520 yuan/ton, an increase of 19,120 yuan or 17.16% from the previous period. - The trading volume of the active lithium carbonate contract was 428,716 lots, a decrease of 500,247 lots or 53.85% from the previous period. - The position of the active lithium carbonate contract was 577,035 lots, a decrease of 91,794 lots or 13.72% from the previous period. - The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 17,861 lots, an increase of 2,350 lots or 15.15% from the previous period [22]. 3.3.2 Spot Market The report provides the spot price seasonal chart and historical price chart of lithium carbonate, but no specific numerical analysis is given in the text [25]. 3.4 Inventory - The total inventory of lithium carbonate was 109,557 tons, a decrease of 1,039 tons or 0.94% from the previous period. - The market inventory was 73,706 tons, a decrease of 2,614 tons or 3.43% from the previous period. - The factory inventory was 17,990 tons, a decrease of 775 tons or 4.13% from the previous period. - The registered warehouse receipt volume was 17,861 tons, an increase of 2,350 tons or 15.15% from the previous period [33]. 3.5 Cost and Profit The report provides charts of the comprehensive cost and comprehensive profit of lithium carbonate, but no specific numerical analysis is given in the text [38]. 3.6 Supply 3.6.1 Production, Capacity, and Import and Export The report provides charts of the monthly production, capacity, and capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate, as well as the net import volume of lithium carbonate, but no specific numerical analysis is given in the text [42]. 3.6.2 Major Project Tracking (Potential Capacity) In December 2025, multiple companies in different regions had new lithium carbonate production capacity projects, with a total new capacity of about 166,000 tons [43]. 3.6.3 Lithium Carbonate Import The report provides charts of the monthly import seasonality, annual cumulative imports of lithium carbonate, and the monthly import seasonality from Argentina and Chile, but no specific numerical analysis is given in the text [45][46]. 3.6.4 Lithium Carbonate Production from Different Raw Materials The report provides charts of the monthly production seasonality of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake, and recycled materials, but no specific numerical analysis is given in the text [55][57]. 3.6.5 Lithium Spodumene Import The report provides charts of the monthly import seasonality of lithium spodumene from Zimbabwe and Australia, as well as the monthly import volume and cumulative import volume, but no specific numerical analysis is given in the text [67][70]. 3.7 Demand 3.7.1 Overall Demand The report provides charts of the monthly consumption of lithium carbonate, monthly production of new energy vehicles, penetration rate of new energy vehicles, and monthly production seasonality of power batteries, but no specific numerical analysis is given in the text [80][82]. 3.7.2 Power Batteries The report provides charts of the monthly production, installation volume, export, and energy - storage situation of power batteries, as well as the installation - volume proportion of each vehicle type's power battery, and the monthly production and demand proportion of cathode materials, but no specific numerical analysis is given in the text [86][88]. 3.7.3 Production of Each Material The report provides charts of the production of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, lithium cobalt oxide, and lithium manganate, but no specific numerical analysis is given in the text [96][98]. 3.8 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the supply - demand balance sheet of lithium carbonate from 1995 to a certain period, including information on total supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, import and export volume, production from different sources, and production of downstream materials, as well as inventory data [105].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The inflection point of the large - cycle of supply has arrived. The downward limit of rubber prices is raised by inflation and the inflection point of the production - capacity cycle. With the support of interest - rate cuts on demand, policies and replacement cycles being favorable for heavy - truck demand, and real estate being the main drag, it is anticipated that the center of gravity of rubber prices will increase. It is recommended to buy rubber at an appropriate time, with the running range of ru referring to 14,000 - 18,000 yuan/ton, and an arbitrage strategy of going long on ru and short on nr is suggested [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomy - The real - estate market has normal expectations but needs to stabilize. Domestically, there is a trend of anti - involution. Externally, the Fed's interest - rate cuts are beneficial for the capital market, but the spill - over effect of a possible US recession should be guarded against. The US plans to increase its GDP to 40 trillion US dollars by 2030, implying an annual nominal GDP growth rate of about 5.5% in the next five years, and inflation will provide support [6]. Supply - The large - cycle inflection point has arrived. Raw materials are prone to price increases and difficult to fall. Rubber farmers' inventories were cleared at a high level from 2024 - 2025. High prices will stimulate output with high elasticity, while low prices may lead to inactivity or reluctance to sell. Price has the greatest impact on output, followed by weather. The strength of raw materials and basis reflects the current strength, but the weak spread between latex and cup lump reflects the current weakness. The enthusiasm for rubber tapping is acceptable at present. The phenology of natural - rubber producing areas this year is average, with more rainfall and floods in southern Thailand in November, making raw materials relatively firm, while the processing sector is in the red. The global output of natural rubber is expected to increase by 0.75% this year. Crude oil is relatively sluggish, synthetic rubber is at a medium - low level relative to crude oil, and natural rubber is relatively high compared to synthetic rubber, with the substitution space of synthetic rubber for natural rubber approaching its peak [6]. Inventory - Qingdao's inventory is around the median level, having increased significantly compared to 2016, and the inventory - to - sales ratio is not low. However, considering the large increase in imports this year and the high proportion of exports from producing areas to China, the inventory is not considered high, with an overall neutral evaluation. Attention should be paid to the seasonal peak of inventory accumulation later. Due to the diversion of concentrated latex and production - capacity issues in Thailand, Vietnam, and China, the output of full - latex is squeezed, and the exchange warehouse receipts are at a ten - year low. The inventory of butadiene rubber is relatively high. The inventory of full - steel tires downstream is lower than last year; the inventory of semi - steel tires is de - stocking marginally from a high level, but considering the market - scale expansion, it is evaluated as neutral [6]. Demand - In 2025, real - estate data continued to deteriorate, dragging down the market. The current new construction area is less than one - third of the peak. Given the long real - estate cycle and the unfavorable population situation, it will take time for a turnaround. Affected by the sharp decline in real - estate physical work volume, the recovery of road freight volume is difficult. It caught up with the 2019 level in 2024 and continued to grow in 2025. However, heavy - truck sales still have policy and replacement - cycle support. Domestic passenger - car sales (including exports) performed well under policy stimulus, domestic substitution, and overseas market expansion, but the marginal growth rate has shown signs of fatigue. Overseas automobile sales are oscillating weakly, and overseas markets rely more on tire replacement demand. The Fed's interest - rate cuts are conducive to stimulating demand. Rubber demand follows the macro - economy, and it is expected that the global demand will grow by about 2% in 2026 [6]. Price and Spread - Spot prices of rubber have a slight rebound, with synthetic rubber having a relatively larger increase. Ru basis is at a multi - year high, the spread between full - latex and Thai mixed rubber is at a low level. Ru 1 - 9 month spread has rebounded to 5, stronger than last year, while the nr contango spread is around - 55 and weakening, and the br contango spread is around - 30 [16][21][25]. Raw Materials and Profit - Thai raw materials are moving sideways with a weakening trend, and Hainan's raw - material prices are falling. In 2025, Thai raw - material prices are relatively strong compared to finished products, indicating a tightening of raw - material production capacity. However, the weak spread between latex and cup lump implies that the supply problem is not significant. Thai processing profit is better than last year but still in the negative area, reflecting over - capacity in processing and tight raw - material supply in Thailand [35][40]. Production and Import - The Asian Natural Rubber Producers' Council (ANRPC) predicts that the cumulative global natural - rubber production in the first three quarters of this year is expected to increase by 2.3%, and consumption is expected to decrease by 1.5%. As of October, ANRPC's production has a slight increase. The global output is expected to grow by 0.75% this year. The global production capacity is approaching the ceiling. In 2024, ANRPC member countries' production decreased by 0.12%, 5.3% lower than the peak. Globally, production increased by 2% in 2024 and is predicted to increase by 0.75% in 2025. In 2024, rubber imports were lower than previous years. In the first ten months of 2025, China's cumulative imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) increased by 15% compared to the same period in 2024 [74][75][85]. Demand - Side Indicators - This year, the operating rate of full - steel tires is higher than last year but still at a low level in recent years, and the operating rate of semi - steel tires is lower than last year. As of November 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of tire outer - tube production is 0.6%, with the marginal growth rate continuing to decline. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of tire exports is 3.8%, with the growth rate also continuing to decline marginally. Heavy - truck sales still have policy and replacement - cycle support. In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 46%. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales exceeded 1 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26%. Domestic passenger - car sales (including exports) performed well but with signs of marginal fatigue. Overseas automobile sales are generally weak [107][111][116].