Group 1: Report's Investment Ratings for the Industry - Both the soybean meal and corn sectors are rated as cautiously bearish [3][6] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For soybean meal, the price showed a weak and volatile trend yesterday. With favorable weather in the main U.S. soybean - growing regions, soybean growth is expected to continue to improve. Macro - factors are significantly disturbing, and the trade relationship between China and the U.S. is expected to improve. Domestically, the supply of soybean meal remains loose with high soybean arrivals and rising inventories [1][3] - For corn, the price had a narrow - range fluctuation yesterday. On the domestic front, the supply side has stabilized after the digestion of negative factors, and the demand side has a decline in the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises and sufficient inventories in feed enterprises. Policy impacts are weakening, but there are still risks of market fluctuations due to the approaching new - crop listing and uncertain policy - grain release [4][6] Group 3: Summaries Based on Related Catalogs 1. Soybean Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 2983 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.23%) from the previous day. The closing price of the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2660 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2910 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu and Guangdong, it was 2840 yuan/ton, unchanged. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2600 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1] - U.S. Data: As of July 27, the U.S. soybean good - to - excellent rate was 70%, the flowering rate was 76%, and the pod - setting rate was 41%. As of July 24, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 40.97 million tons, and the cumulative export inspection volume in the 2024/25 season was 4720.33 million tons, a 10.4% year - on - year increase, reaching 93% of the annual export target [2] Market Analysis - The soybean meal futures price showed a weak and volatile trend. The good weather in the U.S. soybean - growing regions is conducive to soybean growth. Macro - factors are disturbing, and attention should be paid to policy changes. Domestically, the supply is loose with high soybean arrivals and rising inventories [3] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [4] 2. Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2302 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton (-0.73%); the closing price of the corn starch 2509 contract was 2666 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton (-0.63%) [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2720 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [4] - U.S. and Brazil Data: As of July 24, the U.S. corn export inspection volume was 1.52 million tons, and the cumulative export inspection volume in the 2024/25 season was 60.34 million tons, a 29.3% year - on - year increase, reaching 86.4% of the USDA forecast target. In Brazil, the second - season corn harvest progress as of July 24 was 68%, and the 2024/25 corn production is expected to be 136.3 million tons [4][5] Market Analysis - The corn futures price had a narrow - range fluctuation. On the supply side, the market sentiment has stabilized after the digestion of negative factors. On the demand side, the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises has declined, and feed enterprises have sufficient inventories. Policy impacts are weakening, but there are still market risks [6] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [6]

持货商积极出货 铜价维持震荡格局 现货情况： 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-07-29，沪铜主力合约开于 79130元/吨，收于 78840元/吨，较前一交易日收盘-0.20%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合 约开于 78,910元/吨，收于 79,090 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.14%。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-30 据 SMM 讯，昨日早盘持货商开始低报升水，主流平水铜报价升水400元/吨附近，铁峰、中条山PC、金凤等上海、 常州市场价格降至升水350元/吨附近，随后在被压价至升水320-340元/吨成交。此时主流平水铜依旧升水380-400 元/吨报价，货源紧缺。好铜升水420元/吨附近以金川为主，CCC-P依旧紧缺。进入第二交易时段，部分日本、韩 国、大江PC、大江HS等货源升水300-320元/吨。低价引起市场下游采购，日内市场采购情绪指数提升至3.18，销 售情绪指数提升至3.29。沪铜现货商担心后市升水继续走跌，积极出货止盈。 宏观与地缘方面，目前，美联储议息会议临近，不过理事库格勒因私缺席本周议息会议，票委暂降至11人。"美联 储传声筒"：美联储最终将需要继续降息，但他 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminium: Neutral [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminium alloy: Neutral [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - Aluminium prices lack upward elasticity due to the consumption off - season and inventory accumulation. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's plan has no impact on the supply side, but policy support for the consumption side should be monitored. There is a risk of a squeeze in the 08 contract, and the long - term logic is supply constraints and expected consumption growth [6]. - The alumina supply side continues to resume production due to profit incentives, with an oversupply situation and expectations remaining unchanged. The inventory accumulation speed is increasing. There are still problems with the warehouse receipts, and the registration speed of warehouse receipts needs further observation. The long - term oversupply expectation remains, and the spot market is becoming more cautious [6][7]. - Aluminium alloy is in the consumption off - season, with the price following the aluminium price. The supply of scrap and primary aluminium is tight, and the cost side supports the price. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities in the 11 - contract [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Important Data Aluminium Spot - East China A00 aluminium price is 20,620 yuan/ton, a change of - 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium is 0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. - Central China A00 aluminium price is 20,440 yuan/ton, and the spot premium has changed by 10 yuan/ton to - 180 yuan/ton. - Foshan A00 aluminium price is 20,600 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium has changed by - 10 yuan/ton to - 15 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminium Futures - On July 29, 2025, the main SHFE aluminium contract opened at 20,635 yuan/ton, closed at 20,605 yuan/ton, a change of - 45 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a high of 20,695 yuan/ton and a low of 20,570 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 119,985 lots, and the position was 272,707 lots [2]. Inventory - As of July 29, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminium ingots was 533,000 tons, a change of 2.3 tons from the previous period; the warehouse receipt inventory was 53,074 tons, a change of - 524 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminium inventory was 456,100 tons, a change of 1,825 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On July 29, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,240 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,220 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,240 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,300 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,315 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 380 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On July 29, 2025, the main alumina contract opened at 3,259 yuan/ton, closed at 3,307 yuan/ton, a change of 33 yuan/ton (1.01%) from the previous trading day's closing price, with a high of 3,311 yuan/ton and a low of 3,230 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 472,199 lots, and the position was 158,124 lots [2]. Aluminium Alloy Price - On July 29, 2025, the Baotai purchase price of civil primary aluminium was 15,100 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical primary aluminium was 15,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 19,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3]. Aluminium Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminium alloy was 43,200 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 63,600 tons [4]. Aluminium Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,078 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 278 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminium - Aluminium prices lack upward momentum due to the consumption off - season and inventory accumulation. There is a risk of a squeeze in the 08 contract. The long - term logic is supply constraints and expected consumption growth [6]. Alumina - The supply side continues to resume production, with an oversupply situation and expectations remaining unchanged. There are problems with warehouse receipts, and the registration speed of warehouse receipts needs further observation. The long - term oversupply expectation remains, and the spot market is becoming more cautious [6][7]. Aluminium Alloy - Aluminium alloy is in the consumption off - season, with the price following the aluminium price. The supply of scrap and primary aluminium is tight, and the cost side supports the price. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities in the 11 - contract [8]. 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral for aluminium, alumina, and aluminium alloy. - Arbitrage: SHFE aluminium positive spread and long AD11 short AL11 [9].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-30 2025-07-29，碳酸锂主力合约2509开于70160元/吨，收于70840元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化-5.90%。当日 成交量为744160手，持仓量为300620手，前一交易日持仓量378472手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为3370元/ 吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单12276手，较上个交易日变化0手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价71800-74500元/吨，较前一交易日变化-750元/吨，工业级碳酸锂 报价70200-71800元/吨，较前一交易日变化-700元/吨。6%锂精矿价格780美元/吨，较前一日变化-65美元/吨。据SMM 数据，由情绪驱动的期货非理性上涨行情已开始大幅回调，期货价格呈现持续下行态势。虽然下游采购意愿较前 期有所提升，但多数企业仍保持观望态度，期待价格进一步探底，这导致当前市场整体成交活跃度尚未完全恢复。 具体而言：上游锂盐企业仍表现出较强的挺价意愿，部分一二线厂商的心理预期成交价位维持在7.3-7.4万元区间； 而下游企业则更倾向于通过期货升贴水点价模式进行采购。目前市场上下游双方在心理价 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View The freight rates have entered a downward cycle. The August contract is experiencing high-level fluctuations and a game around delivery, with the freight rate peak likely having emerged. The October contract is mainly for short allocation during the off-season, with a focus on the downward slope of freight rates. The December contract follows the off-peak and peak season pattern, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen. The main contract is expected to fluctuate, and the recommended strategies are to go long on the December contract and short on the October contract, and to short the October contract on rallies [1][3][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price As of July 29, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts for the container shipping index on the European route was 74,980 lots, with a single-day trading volume of 50,661 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1,521.30, 1,370.00, 1,504.90, 2,111.00, 1,460.00, and 1,735.00 respectively [5]. 2. Spot Price On July 18, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 2,079.00 USD/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) price was 2,142.00 USD/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - East Coast of the United States) price was 3,612.00 USD/FEU. On July 21, 2025, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 2,316.56 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) was 1,284.01 points [5]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply In August 2025, the monthly average weekly capacity to European base ports was 303,200 TEU, and in September, it was 289,800 TEU. In August, there were 4 blank sailings, all from the OA Alliance, and 5 TBNs; in September, there were 3 TBNs. Maersk added a chartered vessel, Beijing Maersk (15,780 TEU), in Week 32 and is expected to add Maersk Emden (13,092 TEU) in Week 34. As of July 27, 2025, 157 container ships had been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.2513 million TEU [2][5]. 4. Supply Chain Geopolitical events include Houthi hypersonic missile attacks on Israeli airports and the departure of a Hamas delegation for Gaza ceasefire negotiations from Qatar. The report also mentions the daily passage of container ships through the Suez Canal, the Cape of Good Hope, and the Panama Canal [1]. 5. Demand and European Economy No specific information on demand and European economy is provided in the text other than the general analysis of contract trends related to demand and seasonality.

Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] Core View of the Report - Recently, the fundamentals and market trends of low-sulfur fuel oil are slightly stronger than those of high-sulfur fuel oil, and the high-low sulfur spread is rising, but there is no significant upward space under the current industrial trends [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 1.99% at 2,917 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 2.59% at 3,640 yuan/ton [1] - Yesterday, the crude oil price strengthened again, driving up energy commodities including FU and LU, but the oil market still faces the expectation of a looser balance sheet in the medium term, and there is still resistance above [1] - The fundamentals of the high-sulfur fuel oil market have been weak recently, the market structure has been continuously adjusted, the crack spread has significantly declined from its high level, the spot supply is relatively abundant, and the inventory level is high. Supply from the Middle East and Russia has increased, and there are few bright spots on the demand side except for peak-season purchases by power plants. There are no signs of large-scale improvement in refinery demand. As the East-West spread of high-sulfur fuel oil shrinks to a low level, the supply of arbitrage cargoes may tighten, and the Asia-Pacific market is expected to receive some support in the short term. Structurally favorable factors have not completely disappeared in the medium term. If the crack spread is fully adjusted to attract a significant recovery in refinery demand, opportunities for the market structure to strengthen again can be observed [1] - The fundamentals of low-sulfur fuel oil have marginally loosened recently. Brazilian shipments to port have increased, and Kuwait's exports have also resumed, but the overall supply increase is limited. In particular, Kuwait's exports are still some distance from their peak. There are no obvious contradictions in the Asia-Pacific spot market. In the medium term, the remaining production capacity of low-sulfur fuel oil is relatively abundant, and the trend of carbon neutrality in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low-sulfur fuel oil, suppressing the market outlook [1] Strategy - High-sulfur: Oscillating [3] - Low-sulfur: Oscillating [3] - Cross-variety: Positions in the previous short FU crack spread (FU-Brent or FU-SC) can be appropriately stopped for profit [3] - Cross-period: Positions in the previous FU reverse spread can be gradually stopped for profit [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3]

石油沥青日报 | 2025-07-30 市场利好有限，现货成交清淡 市场分析 1、7月29日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2509合约下午收盘价3619元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨28元/吨，涨幅 0.8%；持仓141786手，环比下降20677手，成交208854手，环比下降16037手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3870—4086元/吨；山东，3610—4070元/吨；华南，3560—3590元/吨； 华东，3660—3800元/吨。 昨日原油价格走强，带动BU盘面反弹，但整体未脱离区间运行的状态，中期可能面临来自油市基本面转弱的压力。 现货方面，昨日山东以及川渝市场沥青现货价格小幅上涨，其余区域沥青现货价格均以持稳为主，整体市场情绪 偏谨慎。就沥青自身基本面而言，整体供需两弱格局延续，降雨天气对终端需求释放形成阻碍，不过库存仍处于 低位，还未出现显著累库的信号，市场短期压力有限，但上行驱动不足。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - **Nickel**: The recent market sentiment for refined nickel has cooled, and the supply surplus situation persists. The medium - to long - term strong support level for Shanghai nickel is estimated to be around 117,000 yuan/ton, and the short - term trading range is expected to be between 117,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton (lower limit) and 123,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton (upper limit) [2][3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel market shows a relatively strong oscillation. The short - term pressure level is around 13,100 yuan/ton, and the medium - to long - term strong support level is estimated to be around 12,400 yuan/ton. The short - term trading range is expected to be between 12,400 - 12,500 yuan/ton (lower limit) and 13,100 yuan/ton (upper limit) [4][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel - **Market Analysis** - On July 29, 2025, the main contract 2508 of Shanghai nickel opened at 121,910 yuan/ton and closed at 121,800 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.85% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 119,935 lots, and the open interest was 91,177 lots [1]. - The main contract 2509 of Shanghai nickel continued its weak oscillation. The trading volume decreased significantly compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest decreased slightly. The red column area of the daily MACD continued to narrow, indicating a weakening upward momentum in the short term. The spot market prices of mainstream brands, including Jinchuan nickel, decreased. The supply surplus situation in the refined nickel market remains unchanged, and the spot price provides support for the futures price. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 21,880 (- 73.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 204,912 ( + 876) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - Short - term trading should focus on range operations. For single - side trading, range operations are the main strategy, while there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Stainless Steel - **Market Analysis** - On July 29, 2025, the main contract 2508 of stainless steel opened at 12,935 yuan/ton and closed at 12,920 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 138,761 lots, and the open interest was 103,270 lots [3]. - The main contract of stainless steel showed a relatively strong oscillation. The trading volume of the 09 contract decreased significantly compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest decreased slightly. The red column area of the daily MACD continued to narrow, and the resistance above 13,100 yuan/ton was evident. In the spot market, most merchants' quotes in the Foshan market were flat compared to the previous trading day, and the downstream purchasing willingness was insufficient. The nickel - iron market price decreased slightly, and it is expected to remain stable in the short term [4]. - **Strategy** - Short - term trading should focus on range operations. The single - side trading strategy is neutral, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The impact of coking coal on the coal chemical industry has diminished, and the focus has returned to the fundamentals of methanol itself. The overseas methanol operation remains at a high level, and there is still significant pressure on future arrivals. The maintenance plan for MTO units has not been implemented, and attention should be paid to the progress of future implementation. It is still a period of slight inventory accumulation, and the port basis will maintain a weak consolidation. In the inland area, coal - based methanol has undergone concentrated maintenance but will gradually resume in early August. Among traditional downstream industries, formaldehyde is in a seasonal off - season, while the operation of MTBE and acetic acid still shows some resilience, and the inland demand remains strong. The inventory of inland methanol factories has decreased again, and the inland market is stronger than the port market [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis and inter - period structure, including the basis between methanol in Taicang and the main contract, the basis of methanol in different regions relative to the main futures, and the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (such as MA01 - 05, MA05 - 09, MA09 - 01). The data sources for these figures are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [7][21][23]. 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures are provided for the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and the import price difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, as well as the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam - CFR China. The data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [26][27][31]. 3. Methanol Operation and Inventory - Figures show the total port inventory of methanol, the operation rate of MTO/P (including integrated plants), the sample inventory of inland factories, and the operation rate of methanol in China (including integrated plants). The data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [34][36]. 4. Regional Price Differences - Figures illustrate the price differences between different regions, such as the price difference between northern Shandong and the northwest, the price difference between East China and Inner Mongolia, and the price differences between other regions. The data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [38][44][47]. 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures display the production profits of traditional downstream products, including the production profit of formaldehyde in Shandong, the production profit of acetic acid in Jiangsu, the production profit of MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and the production profit of dimethyl ether in Henan. The data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [51][54]. Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see [4]. - Inter - period: Do reverse spreads when the MA09 - 01 inter - period price difference is high [4]. - Cross - variety: Do narrowing spreads when the PP2601 - 3MA2601 spread is high [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead market is currently in a situation where regional supply is relatively tight due to maintenance in some primary lead production areas, but overall terminal demand has not improved significantly, and the peak - season demand signal is not obvious. However, with the overall positive macro - sentiment, lead prices in the non - ferrous sector may not decline further and are expected to remain in a range of 16,400 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market - On July 29, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 27.31 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,775 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at - 25.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price remained unchanged at 16,875 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium remained unchanged at 16,800 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 25 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,250 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,175 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,525 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On July 29, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 16,985 yuan/ton and closed at 16,900 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 47,978 lots, down 24,548 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 64,534 lots, down 6,012 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,015 yuan/ton and a low of 16,890 yuan/ton. In the night session, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 16,870 yuan/ton and closed at 16,910 yuan/ton, down 0.21% from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price dropped 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The domestic lead futures market was weakly volatile, and different regions had different pricing strategies. Lead prices continued to weaken, downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs, and the spot market was generally weak [2] Inventory - On July 29, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 72,000 tons, an increase of 300 tons from the previous week. As of July 29, the LME lead inventory was 270,350 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - The investment strategy for the lead market is neutral, and the option strategy is to sell a wide - straddle [4][5]