Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For pure benzene, a private large refinery's reforming fluidized bed had a malfunction on Wednesday, and its impact on pure benzene production capacity should be monitored. Port inventory slightly decreased at the beginning of this week, with low downstream pick - up volume but a slower arrival rhythm. Downstream, styrene's start - up rate is gradually bottoming out and rising, while CPL's start - up rate is further decreasing, and aniline, phenol, and adipic acid's start - up rates remain high. Domestic pure benzene start - up rate is still low, and there is a possibility of the US increasing tariffs on South Korea, which might lead to increased pressure on South Korea to ship pure benzene to China [2]. - For styrene, the lowest point of domestic start - up rate may have passed, with Sinochem Quanzhou restarting and Tianjin Bohua having a restart expectation. Styrene's port inventory increased again at the beginning of the week and is entering the seasonal pre - holiday inventory rebuilding cycle. The start - up rates of EB downstream industries have peaked and declined, and the inventory pressure of the three major hard rubber products has been relieved [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spreads - Pure benzene's main basis is - 30 yuan/ton (+1), and the spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 is - 95 yuan/ton (- 5 yuan/ton) [1]. - Styrene's main basis is 143 yuan/ton (+24 yuan/ton) [1]. 2. Pure Benzene and Styrene's Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads - Pure benzene's CFR China processing fee is 185 US dollars/ton (+16 US dollars/ton), and FOB South Korea processing fee is 184 US dollars/ton (+18 US dollars/ton). The price difference between the US and South Korea is 100.0 US dollars/ton (+1.1 US dollars/ton) [1]. - Styrene's non - integrated production profit is 614 yuan/ton (+51 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress [1]. 3. Pure Benzene and Styrene's Inventory and Start - up Rates - Pure benzene's port inventory is 30.50 tons (+0.00 tons), and its start - up rate is low [1][2]. - Styrene's East China port inventory is 108,600 tons (+8,000 tons), East China commercial inventory is 60,800 tons (- 1,500 tons), and the start - up rate is 69.3% (- 0.4%) [1]. 4. Styrene's Downstream Start - up and Production Profits - EPS production profit is 59 yuan/ton (- 139 yuan/ton), PS production profit is - 391 yuan/ton (- 39 yuan/ton), and ABS production profit is - 952 yuan/ton (- 55 yuan/ton) [2]. - EPS start - up rate is 53.26% (- 5.45%), PS start - up rate is 55.60% (- 1.70%), and ABS start - up rate is 66.10% (- 0.70%) [2]. 5. Pure Benzene's Downstream Start - up and Production Profits - Caprolactam production profit is - 880 yuan/ton (- 15), phenol - ketone production profit is - 766 yuan/ton (+0), aniline production profit is 1134 yuan/ton (- 107), and adipic acid production profit is - 309 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - Caprolactam start - up rate is 73.57% (- 2.60%), phenol start - up rate is 88.00% (+2.50%), aniline start - up rate is 88.53% (+0.92%), and adipic acid start - up rate is 68.50% (- 0.60%) [1].

期货研究报告|外汇专题 2026-02-04 当加息不再等于升值，日元重构中轴 研究院 研究员 蔡劭立 高聪 gaocong@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3063338 投资咨询号：Z0016648 汪雅航 wangyahang@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03099648 投资咨询号：Z0019185 联系人 朱思谋 0755-23887993 zhusimou@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03142856 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 ■ 加息不再支撑日元，反而成为主权信用折价的放大器。2026H1 汇率中轴预计锚定 在 152–159 的宽幅区间。 从利差驱动转向主权风险定价。2026 年初，日元定价权正经历机制性崩塌。尽管日本 央行已将基准利率上调至 0.75%，但传统的紧缩溢价未能转化为汇率支撑，反而诱发 了市场对财政主导下债务成本激增的结构性恐慌。这种加息与贬值并存的反常图景， 标志着日元定价逻辑已从平滑的利差驱动转向非线性的主权风险溢价主导：汇率不再 仅仅反映货币政策节奏，而是国家资产负债表健康状况的动态价格。 核心矛盾在于名义回报与真实回报的实质性脱钩。在政 ...

期货研究报告|航运专题报告 2026-02-04 蔡劭立 0755-23887993 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 核心观点 能源中心拟修订《上海国际能源交易中心集运指数（欧线）期货标准合约》，具体内容 如下： 一是将合约月份由"2、4、6、8、10、12 月"调整为"最近 1-6 个月为连续月份（2 月除外），以及随后两个季月"。拟挂牌最近 1-6 个月连续月份合约，便于产业客户精 确匹配期货和现货的到期时间、提高套期保值效率；考虑到 2 月（春节假期期间）集 运现货市场较为清淡，拟剔除 2 月合约；同时，为保持挂牌合约覆盖一年期限，6 个月 后拟挂牌 2 个季月合约。调整后，挂牌合约数量将由 6 个增加到 7-8 个。 EC 标准合约修订，合约增加背景下的运价规律 探究 研究院 FICC 组 研究员 高聪 二是将最小变动价位由"0.1 点"调整为"0.5 点"。根据目前集运市场报价情况，拟将 最小变动价位修改为 0.5 点。 在新的合约规则下，上市合约为近 1-6 个月为连续月份（2 月除外），以及随后两个季 月，该背景下需要更为详细探究月度价格的季节性特点，为投资未来的单边以及套 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report presents the trading data of various stock index options on February 3, 2026, including trading volume, PCR, and VIX, to help investors analyze the market situation [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Option Trading Volume - On February 3, 2026, the trading volumes of various options were as follows: Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF option was 1369600 contracts; CSI 300 ETF option (Shanghai market) was 1651800 contracts; CSI 500 ETF option (Shanghai market) was 2295300 contracts; Shenzhen 100 ETF option was 37000 contracts; ChiNext ETF option was 1701600 contracts; Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 stock index option was 47700 contracts; CSI 300 stock index option was 173500 contracts; CSI 1000 option was 335700 contracts [1] Option PCR - The turnover PCR and position PCR of various options and their changes were reported: for example, the turnover PCR of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF option was 0.99, with a month - on - month change of - 0.14; the position PCR was 0.71, with a month - on - month change of - 0.02 [2] Option VIX - The VIX and its monthly changes of various options were reported: for example, the VIX of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF option was 19.23%, with a month - on - month change of - 3.14% [3]

FICC日报 | 2026-02-04 贵金属全线反弹，美印达成贸易协议 市场分析 特朗普宣布美联储主席候选人。1月30日，特朗普总统宣布将提名凯文·沃什担任下届美联储主席，接替5月任期届 满的现任主席鲍威尔；凯文·沃什较为知名的政策主张是"降息+缩表"的政策组合拳，随后市场计价"美联储独立性 回顾"，白银一度跌超30%，黄金一度跌11%创下1980年3月以来的最大单日跌幅，短期需要警惕极端情绪反转所带 来的波动。趋势上，我们认为本轮大跌并不改全球通胀的叙事，本轮海外的核心驱动是来自特朗普的"一言堂"及 其政策，对于凯文·沃什的提名更核心诉求在于降息和推降信用卡利率，以及带动房地产市场，而相对的，在当下 流动性略偏紧的环境中，沃什的"缩表"若想实现，需要更激进的"降息"进行对冲和配合。特朗普钦点理事米兰周二 表示，美联储今年需要降息不止100个基点，很期待沃什担任美联储主席后的表现。 通胀叙事大趋势不改。12月11日中央经济工作会议召开：会议强调，深入实施提振消费专项行动；强调深入整治"内 卷式"竞争制定和实施；会议确认，把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量。1月15日，央 行宣布下调各类结 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Apple: Neutral [4] - Red dates: Neutral [8] 2. Core Views - Apple: In January 2026, the apple market showed a characteristic of divergence between the pulling of shipments by pre - holiday stocking in the production areas and the weak demand in the sales areas. Although the inventory removal speed accelerated, the inventory was still at a high level. The Spring Festival stocking drove the shipment of late - Fuji apples to accelerate month - on - month but slow down year - on - year. The price polarization was obvious. High - quality goods remained price - firm due to scarcity, while the general goods of fruit farmers were sold at a lower price due to the eagerness to sell. The market performance during the peak season was not prosperous due to the impact of substitute fruits [3]. - Red dates: The 2025 red date market had a production reduction, but the inventory overlay and insufficient consumption kept the prices under pressure. Although the pre - holiday stocking drove inventory removal, it was difficult to change the overall abundant supply pattern. The arrival volume in the sales areas increased month - on - month, but the actual sales were less than expected. Substitute products such as tangerines and nuts compressed the downstream sales space of red dates. The next 20 days are the key stocking period, and the market performance depends on the sales volume in the sales areas [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2605 contract yesterday was 9485 yuan/ton, a change of +105 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a change rate of +1.12%. - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late - Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 4.00 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis AP05 was - 1485, a change of - 105 from the previous day. The price of semi - commercial late - Fuji above 70 in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.20 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis AP05 was - 1085, a change of - 105 from the previous day [1]. Recent Market Information - The apple trading situation in the production areas decreased slightly compared with the previous period, and the prices remained stable. Traders mainly shipped pre - packaged goods, and the overall packaging and shipping accelerated slightly. The transaction volume of general goods of fruit farmers in the main production areas was average, with mainly high - grade and third - grade fruits being sold. Some fruit farmers were more eager to sell. In Shaanxi, the transactions of fruit farmers' goods were mainly in small quantities of extreme - end goods, and traders mainly shipped their own inventory. In Gansu, the Jingzhuang area mainly shipped packaged goods of traders, and the trading in the Qingyang area improved. In Shandong, the transactions were average, mainly for gift - box purchases, with a small amount of 75 and third - grade goods being shipped out. The prices of fruit farmers' 80 first - and second - grade slice - red apples in Qixia were 3.2 - 4.5 yuan/jin, and the 80 general goods were around 2.5 - 3 yuan/jin. The ex - warehouse price of general goods of fruit farmers in Shaanxi Luochuan was 3.5 - 4.0 yuan/jin, and the semi - commercial ex - warehouse price was 4.0 - 4.3 yuan/jin. The semi - commercial price of fruit farmers in Gansu Jingning was 5 - 6 yuan/jin, and the ex - warehouse price of general goods of fruit farmers was 3.7 - 5 yuan/jin. The stocking atmosphere in the production areas was average, and traders preferred to ship their own inventory. The transactions of fruit farmers' goods were concentrated in extreme - end goods, and the transactions of general goods were limited. In the sales areas, the number of arriving trucks increased, and gift - box products were gradually sold, but the sales were affected by competing fruits and were not fast. It is expected that the sales volume will increase slightly under the boost of stocking in the short term, and the prices will be slightly weak [2]. Market Analysis - The apple futures price rose slightly yesterday. With the start of pre - Spring Festival stocking, the market demand increased significantly, and the trading activity improved significantly. In terms of circulation, the pre - holiday purchase demand was released rapidly, and the overall sales speed in the market accelerated. Some dealers still put pressure on the prices at the production end. The current price was still at a high level compared with substitute varieties such as tangerines and cherries, but the prices of high - quality goods remained firm. Attention should be paid to the actual consumption performance in the terminal market. In January 2026, the apple market showed a divergence between the production areas and the sales areas. Although the inventory removal speed accelerated, the inventory was still at a high level. The Spring Festival stocking drove the shipment of late - Fuji apples to accelerate month - on - month but slow down year - on - year. The price polarization was obvious. High - quality goods remained price - firm due to scarcity, while the general goods of fruit farmers were sold at a lower price due to the eagerness to sell. The sales in Shandong and Shaanxi were sluggish, and the transactions of fruit farmers' goods in Gansu were relatively concentrated. The average daily number of arriving trucks in the three major core markets in Guangdong decreased month - on - month, and the overall sales in the month were not smooth. The backlog in the transfer warehouses increased. Although the number of arriving trucks increased at the end of the month due to stocking, the terminal digestion was insufficient. Coupled with the price impact of substitute fruits such as tangerines and cherries, the market performance during the peak season was not prosperous [3]. Red Dates Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2605 contract yesterday was 8920 yuan/ton, a change of +100 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a change rate of +1.13%. - Spot: The price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 8.00 yuan/kg, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis CJ05 was - 920, a change of - 100 from the previous day [5]. Recent Market Information - In the 2025 production season, the purchase price range of Xinjiang grey dates was 5.00 - 6.50 yuan/kg. The mainstream price of general goods in Aksu was 5.00 - 5.30 yuan/kg, in Alar was 5.20 - 5.80 yuan/kg, in Kashgar was 6.20 - 6.40 yuan/kg, and in Maigaiti was 6.00 - 6.30 yuan/kg. The raw material purchase in the production areas was priced according to quality, adhering to the principle of high - quality and high - price. On February 2, there were 5 trucks of goods arriving at the Hebei Cuierzhuang market. The reference price of special - grade dates was 8.00 yuan/kg, with average quality. Downstream buyers purchased according to demand. Small and medium - sized enterprises with self - purchased goods actively sold their inventory due to the limited pre - holiday stocking time. In the Guangdong Ruyifang market, 7 trucks of goods arrived, and the prices remained stable. Downstream buyers purchased according to demand, and the sales were okay. The market will be on holiday from the 25th of the twelfth lunar month to the eighth day of the first lunar month. According to traders, the logistics will stop operating from the 15th to the 23rd of the twelfth lunar month. The available trading time before the Spring Festival is limited, and it is expected that the prices will remain stable in the short term [6]. Market Analysis - The red date futures price fluctuated sideways yesterday. Although the inventory removal speed has accelerated recently, the market supply is still sufficient due to the overlay of old and new goods, and the prices are under continuous pressure. As more buyers enter the market, the pressure on inventory sales has been relieved. Although it is approaching the Spring Festival, the terminal consumption has not increased significantly. Attention should be paid to the actual sales performance in the sales areas and the change in the festival consumption atmosphere during the Spring Festival. The red date purchase in the production areas has ended. The 2025 red date market had a production reduction, but the inventory overlay and insufficient consumption kept the prices under pressure. Although the pre - holiday stocking drove inventory removal, it was difficult to change the overall abundant supply pattern. The arrival volume in the sales areas increased month - on - month, but the actual sales were less than expected. Downstream traders were cautious in purchasing, and the sales were weak. At the same time, substitute products such as tangerines and nuts occupied the market, continuously compressing the downstream sales space of red dates. The next 20 days are the key stocking period. If the sales volume in the sales areas increases significantly, it may relieve the inventory pressure and support the prices in the short term; otherwise, the pressure will be further transmitted after the Spring Festival [7].

石油沥青日报 | 2026-02-04 站在沥青自身市场结构的角度，目前基本面处于供需两弱格局，成交量相对偏低。在BU盘面大跌后，沥青期现价 格有所收敛，基差出现修复。目前来看，如果抛开地缘与宏观层面的扰动，沥青市场自身矛盾相对有限，原料切 换带来的成本与收率变化可能会在3月份后逐步明朗，盘面短期回调后或转为震荡态势。 策略 单边：中性，关注美伊谈判进展 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 盘面地缘溢价回落，现货涨跌互现 市场分析 1、2月3日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2603合约下午收盘价3309元/吨，较昨日结算价下跌58元/吨，跌幅 1.72%；持仓110778手，环比下跌16712手，成交167414手，环比下跌129940手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3506—3600元/吨；山东，3210—3270元/吨；华南，3280—3320元/吨； 华东，3250—3280元/吨。 由于伊朗与美国计划开展谈判，地缘局势边际缓和，本周原油价格大幅回调，带动沥青在内的能化品价格下跌。 需要注意的是，在伊朗与美国谈判出相对明确的结果或信号前，市场可能受到消息面的反复扰动，叠加春节假 ...

FICC日报 | 2026-02-04 市场情绪升温，股指回升 市场分析 发布一号文件。宏观方面，"十五五"首个中央一号文件公布。《中共中央 国务院关于锚定农业农村现代化 扎实推 进乡村全面振兴的意见》于2月3日正式发布，这是党的十八大以来第14个指导"三农"工作的一号文件，是又一个 以推进乡村全面振兴作为主题的一号文件。文件提出，努力把农业建成现代化大产业，使农村基本具备现代生活 条件，让农民生活更加富裕美好。海外方面，特朗普签署政府拨款法案，结束政府部分"停摆"。此前，美国国会 众议院投票通过联邦政府多个部门本财年剩余时间拨款法案，从1月31日开始的联邦政府部分"停摆"僵局得以化 解。 指数回升。现货市场，A股三大指数回升，上证指数涨1.29%收于4067.74点，创业板指涨1.86%。行业方面，板块 指数涨多跌少，国防军工、机械设备、建筑材料等7个行业涨幅超3%，仅银行行业收跌。当日沪深两市成交额为2.5 万亿元。海外方面，美国三大股指全线收跌，纳指跌1.43%报23255.19点。 期指增仓。期货市场，基差方面，IC、IM基差回升，当月合约升水。成交持仓方面，股指期货成交量和持仓量同 步增加。 策略 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-04 下游持续清淡 铅价维持震荡偏弱 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2026-02-03，LME铅现货升水为-47.99美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-125元/吨至16450 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至75.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-125元 /吨至16525元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-175元/吨至16400元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易 日变化-150元/吨至16500元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至0元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0 元/吨至9975元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10075元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10250元/吨。 期货方面：2026-02-03，沪铅主力合约开于16690元/吨，收于16640元/吨，较前一交易日变化-40元/吨，全天交易日 成交72295手，较前一交易日变化-28757手，全天交易日持仓54749手，手较前一交易日变化-2280手，日内价格震 荡，最高点达到16760元/吨，最低点达到165 ...

Group 1: Market News and Important Data - On February 3, the US government is preparing to issue a general license allowing companies to extract oil in Venezuela, a step to attract US - related companies and revive the country's energy industry. Another license allowing companies to buy and sell Venezuelan crude was issued last week [1]. - On February 3, the US Trade Representative said India agreed to cut tariffs on US exports from 13.5% to zero for industrial products, and they also reached a consensus on reducing India's technical non - tariff trade barriers. The US has been monitoring India's reduction of Russian oil purchases [1]. - In recent months, India has cut Russian oil imports. At least three refiners are seeking government clarification, two of which have suspended purchases. India's oil minister expects imports from Russia to continue to decline, and refiners want to increase supplies from Canada and the US [1]. - On February 3, crude oil prices rose slightly in Asian morning trading due to the US - India trade agreement. Trump said the US would cut tariffs on India to 18%, and India would stop buying Russian oil and increase purchases from the US and Venezuela. The US would cancel the 25% extra tariff on India's Russian oil imports, which may trigger more active purchasing by Indian refiners [1]. Group 2: Investment Logic - The situation in Iran has taken a turn with an Iranian drone shot down by the US military. The US - India agreement will lead to a 1 - million - barrel - per - day reduction in Russia oil consumption capacity and an increase in compliant oil purchases, supporting oil prices. However, the pace of India's procurement shift is unknown, and in the short term, the market surplus is concentrated in sanctioned oil, while the supply - demand of compliant oil will tighten [2]. Group 3: Strategy - Oil prices will fluctuate in the short - term, with geopolitical events having a large impact. Control risks, and consider a medium - term short - position allocation [3]