Report Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4] Core Views - Market sentiment is high, and steel prices are oscillating strongly. The glass and soda ash market transactions have improved, leading to a significant increase in the glass and soda ash futures market. The high - price sentiment in the ferrosilicon and ferrosilicon manganese markets is strong, and the market maintains on - demand procurement [1][3] Market Analysis and Strategy for Different Products Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: The glass futures market rose significantly yesterday. The downstream procurement sentiment has warmed up, and spot sales have improved. This week, the开工 rate of float glass enterprises was 75.1%, a decrease of 0.43% month - on - month. The manufacturer's inventory was 61.896 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 46,900 heavy boxes month - on - month, with significant destocking. However, the overall inventory remains high, and the destocking pressure is still large. In the long term, the glass supply - demand is still relatively loose [1] - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures market rose significantly yesterday. The downstream transactions were stable, mainly in a wait - and - see state. This week, the soda ash开工率 was 83.02%, a decrease of 1.28% month - on - month; the output was 723,800 tons, a decrease of 12,800 tons month - on - month; the inventory was 1.8646 million tons, a decrease of 2.15% month - on - month, with obvious destocking. Currently in the summer maintenance stage, the soda ash开工率 is expected to remain at a low level. With the production cut of photovoltaic glass, the demand for soda ash is expected to weaken further, and the annual inventory pressure is large [1] Strategy - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] Ferrosilicon Manganese and Ferrosilicon Market Analysis - Ferrosilicon Manganese: The ferrosilicon manganese futures slightly corrected yesterday. The market sentiment was mainly wait - and - see, and the overall price was firm. The price in the northern market was 5,630 - 5,680 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was about 5,650 - 5,700 yuan/ton. The ferrosilicon manganese output remained stable, the hot metal output rebounded, and the overall demand for ferrosilicon manganese maintained resilience. The inventory of ferrosilicon manganese manufacturers and registered warehouse receipts were at medium - to - high levels, suppressing the price of ferrosilicon manganese. The shipment from the Australian end of manganese ore has basically recovered [3] - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures oscillated strongly yesterday. The market sentiment in the ferrosilicon spot market was okay, and the price of ferrosilicon was running steadily and strongly. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production area was 5,400 - 5,600 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was reported at 5,700 - 5,800 yuan/ton. The output increased month - on - month, the demand slightly decreased, and the factory inventory was at a medium - to - high level. In the short term, the market sentiment improved, and the price fluctuated following the sector. In the long term, the ferrosilicon production capacity is relatively loose [3] Strategy - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4]

油料日报 | 2025-07-25 豆一现货成交平淡，价格震荡运行 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2509合约4224.00元/吨，较前日变化+7.00元/吨，幅度+0.17%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A09+76，较前日变化-7，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：东北市场贸易商心态较稳，部分地区库存见底，贸易商走货稳定。黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋 白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.15元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报 价2.16元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.16元/斤，较昨日平； 黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41。 昨日豆一期货日内宽幅震荡，国内大豆市场中，下游市场拿货意愿不强，现货买卖不活跃，大豆价格保持稳定。 销区多数加工厂仍处于限产或停机状态，对大豆原材料的采购态度谨慎，以满足自身实际需求补充库存为主，贸 易商多通过对比价格进行采购，主要维持与老客户的订单合作。当前大豆产区没有出现因天气导致减产的情况， 夏季高温使得豆制品的需求有所下降。 策略 中性 风险 无 花生观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-07-25 欧央行维持利率不变，观望美欧贸易谈判进展 市场分析 关注国内重要会议。上半年国内经济仍具韧性，中国上半年GDP同比增长5.3%，高于全年预期目标5%，财政发力 和"抢出口"现象为上半年经济数据提供支撑，但也对应着政策迫切性有所下降。中国6月出口表现亮眼，中美关税 缓和下，新一轮"抢出口"支撑需求；中国6月社零同比增速放缓至4.8%，主要受部分地区"两新"政策补贴断档拖累， 后续政策补贴有望继续下达支撑国内消费。投资方面，基建投资和制造业投资均明显回落，整体固定投资走弱， 地产销售走弱对整个地产链条拖累风险仍存。后续关注7月政治局会议进一步加码稳增长政策的可能。7月24日， 中欧峰会就进一步深化中欧关系达成重要共识。中国央行7月25日将开展4000亿元MLF操作，本月有3000亿MLF到 期，7月央行MLF净投放达到1000亿，为连续第五个月加量续作。 "反内卷"交易的进展跟踪。7月以来，中央财经委、工信部等部门再次强调治理企业低价无序竞争，15日中钢协召 开钢铁工业规划部长会，研究建立产能治理新机制，光伏、锂电池、汽车、钢铁等行业"反内卷"政策预期升温， 部分商品价格回 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The overall sentiment of commodities remains positive. The supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon has improved recently, with reduced inventory. Affected by the anti - involution policy and the rising price of coking coal, the industrial silicon futures market may show a strong performance. For polysilicon, due to the expected impact of the anti - involution policy on capacity and under the influence of capital sentiment, the futures market may also run strongly [3][7]. Group 3: Summary by Industry Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis**: On July 24, 2025, the main contract 2509 of industrial silicon futures opened at 9560 yuan/ton and closed at 9690 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.21% from the previous day's settlement. The position of the main contract was 336274 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 49776 lots, a decrease of 330 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon increased. The social inventory in major areas was 53.5 tons, a decrease of 1.2 tons from the previous week [1]. - **Supply - Side**: The spot price of industrial silicon rose. The price of East China oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 10000 - 10200 yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 10200 - 10500 yuan/ton. The price of Xinjiang oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 9400 - 9600 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 9400 - 9500 yuan/ton. Downstream users purchased on demand, and the center of market transactions moved up [1]. - **Consumption - Side**: The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 12100 - 12800 yuan/ton. The supply was expected to decrease due to an incident at a Shandong organic silicon plant. The decrease in supply and the sharp rise in weekly prices stimulated downstream enterprises' panic - buying sentiment [2]. - **Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is advisable to be cautiously bullish; there is no strategy for inter - period trading [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis**: On July 24, 2025, the main contract 2509 of polysilicon futures continued to rise, opening at 50025 yuan/ton and closing at 53765 yuan/ton, a 5.15% increase from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 172564 lots, and the trading volume was 1123795 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The polysilicon manufacturers' inventory decreased, while the silicon wafer inventory increased. The weekly polysilicon output was 25500 tons, a 10.87% increase, and the silicon wafer output was 11.20GW, a 0.90% increase [4]. - **Strategy**: In the short - term, it is recommended to conduct range trading for unilateral trading; there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [9]. Silicon Wafers, Battery Cells, and Components - **Silicon Wafers**: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.10 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.45 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.25 yuan/piece [6]. - **Battery Cells**: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells was about 0.28 yuan/W, Topcon M10 battery cells was about 0.27 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, Topcon 210RN battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 yuan/W [6]. - **Components**: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm components was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.68 - 0.70 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.68 - 0.70 yuan/W [6].

尿素日报 | 2025-07-25 政策面持续影响，上游去库速率减弱 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-07-24，尿素主力收盘1785元/吨（+12）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1830 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1810元/吨（-20）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1820元/吨（-20）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：25 元/吨（-32）；河南基差：45元/吨（-32）；江苏基差：35元/吨（-32）；尿素生产利润280元/吨（-20），出口利润1079 元/吨（-3）。 供应端：截至2025-07-24，企业产能利用率83.59%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为85.88 万吨（-3.67），港口样本 库存量为54.30 万吨（+0.20）。 需求端：截至2025-07-24，复合肥产能利用率33.58%（+1.03%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为65.20%（+0.96%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数5.94日（-0.12）。 政府公布"反内卷、淘汰落后产能"等宏观政策，持续影响尿素市场，下游受情绪带动，宏观面对价格有一定提振。 尿素装置检修较少，开工高位运行，供应端压力持续。下游农业需求推进放缓 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - period: PL01 - 05 reverse spread; - Inter - variety: Long PL2601 and short PP2509 [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - Macro policies such as anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity continue to boost the propylene and polyolefin markets. The elimination of backward production capacity in the propylene industry is expected to shift the domestic propylene market from an oversupply to a tight - balance situation. However, the current overall propylene operating rate is at a seasonally low level, and downstream demand has limited driving force. For polyolefins, although macro policies boost the market, the cost - side support is weak, and downstream demand remains weak during the seasonal off - season [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Propylene 3.1.1 Propylene Basis Structure - It includes the market prices of propylene in East China and Shandong [10][12] 3.1.2 Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Involves the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit and capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, and methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization rate [13][18][22] 3.1.3 Propylene Import and Export Profit - Covers propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, crude oil refinery capacity utilization rate, and the differences between FOB in South Korea, CFR in Japan, and CFR in Southeast Asia and China CFR, as well as propylene import profit [25][28][33] 3.1.4 Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - Includes the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [35][40][42] 3.1.5 Propylene Inventory - Comprises propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [59][61] 3.2 Polyolefins 3.2.1 Polyolefin Basis Structure - Involves the trends of plastic and polypropylene futures main contracts, and the basis between LL in East China and the main contract, and PP in East China and the main contract [63][64][70] 3.2.2 Polyolefin Production Profit and Operating Rate - Covers LL production profit from crude oil, PE operating rate, PE weekly output, PE maintenance loss, PP production profit from crude oil and PDH, PP operating rate, PP weekly output, PP maintenance loss, and PDH - made PP capacity utilization rate [71][72][77] 3.2.3 Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Includes the price differences between HD injection molding, HD blow molding, HD film, LD in East China and LL, and the price differences between PP low - melt copolymer and PP homopolymer injection molding and PP drawing in East China [84][91][92] 3.2.4 Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - Involves LL import profit, the differences between FOB in the US Gulf, CFR in Southeast Asia, FD in Europe and China CFR, PP import and export profit, and the differences between FOB in the US Gulf, CFR in Southeast Asia, FOB in Northwest Europe of PP homopolymer injection molding and China CFR [93][97][109] 3.2.5 Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Profit - Includes the operating rates of PE downstream agricultural film, packaging film, and PP downstream woven bags, BOPP film, injection molding, and the production gross profits of PP downstream woven bags and BOPP film [117][120][127] 3.2.6 Polyolefin Inventory - Comprises the inventories of PE and PP in oil - based enterprises, coal - chemical enterprises, traders, and ports [133][134][136]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the production industry, attention should be paid to the progress of "anti - involution" governance. The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation have solicited public opinions on the draft amendment to the Price Law of the People's Republic of China, aiming to clarify the standards for identifying improper price behaviors and regulate market price order. Additionally, the automobile replacement subsidy policies in many places have been adjusted [1]. - In the service industry, attention should be paid to the mid - year monetary policy adjustment. On July 25, the central bank conducted a 400 - billion - yuan Medium - term Lending Facility (MLF) operation, with a net investment of 100 billion yuan, marking the fifth consecutive month of increased MLF roll - overs [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Upstream - In the black sector, the prices of upstream black products have been continuously rising [2]. - In the agricultural sector, egg prices have been on a continuous upward trend [2]. Midstream - In the chemical industry, the operating rates of polyester and PX have remained stable [3]. - In the energy sector, the coal consumption has been increasing recently [3]. Downstream - In the real estate sector, the sales of commercial housing in third - tier cities have slightly rebounded [3]. - In the service sector, the number of summer flight schedules has increased [3]. Industry Credit Spread Tracking - As of July 25, the industry credit spreads of various sectors showed different trends. For example, the credit spread of the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector was 58.97 (previous week: 60.41), and that of the real estate sector was 99.89 (previous week: 101.86) [48]. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - As of July 24, the prices of various products showed different trends. For instance, the spot price of eggs was 6.9 yuan/kg, with a year - on - year increase of 19.24%; the spot price of WTI crude oil was 65.3 US dollars/barrel, with a year - on - year decrease of 1.70% [49].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-25 盘面镍价小幅上涨，现货升贴水持稳 镍品种 市场分析 2025-07-24日沪镍主力合约2509开于123810元/吨，收于124360元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化0.66%，当日成交量为 162621手，持仓量为98904手。 沪镍主力合约夜盘快速冲高回落后盘整，日盘继续小幅冲高后振荡回落，午后小幅回升，收阳线。成交量较上个 交易日有所增加，持仓量较上个交易日有所增加。记者24日获悉，韩国和美国原定于当地时间25日举行的财长+贸 易谈判代表"2+2"关税协商因美国财长贝森特的紧急日程而推迟。7月24日，总台记者获悉，当天欧盟成员国投票 通过了一项对总额930亿欧元的美国产品加征反制关税的措施。如果无法在8月1日美关税措施生效日之前与美达成 满意的贸易协议，反制措施将于8月7日开始生效。总统每日公开行程显示，美国总统特朗普将于当地时间周四16 点亲自造访美联储。郑栅洁：推动整治内卷式竞争、拓展产业链供应链合作。经中美双方商定，中共中央政治局 委员、国务院副总理何立峰将于7月27日至30日赴瑞典与美方举行经贸会谈。现货市场方面，金川镍早盘报价较上 个交易日上调约60 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-25 库存方面：截至2025-07-24，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为9.83万吨，较上周同期增加0.48万吨。截止2025-07-24，LME 锌库存为116900吨，较上一交易日增加1575吨。 市场分析 市场整体乐观情绪依旧存在，但沪锌价格表现出上涨乏力，上方压力较大。成本端，在锌矿进口窗口关闭的情况 下，6月份进口量同比增加3.2%，进口矿TC仍在继续上涨，冶炼利润维持，供给端增量预期不变，冶炼厂原料储 备充足，对矿端采购积极性不高。消费端，虽然下游开工率水平表现出相对韧性，整体消费并不差，但难敌供应 端的高增长。国内社会库存呈现累库趋势，预计下半年累库趋势不变。虽然工信部稳增长工作方案着力调结构， 优供给，淘汰落后产能的政策拉动市场情绪普涨，但预估与曾经供给侧改革不同，情绪扰动后，过剩的格局或将 重新主导价格走势。 策略 单边：谨慎偏空。 套利：中性。 风险 1、海外矿预期外扰动。2、国内消费不及预期。3、流动性变化超预期。 浪潮退去后基本面逻辑有望回归 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-0.71 美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日上涨60元/吨至2 ...

策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 石油沥青日报 | 2025-07-25 需求表现疲软，现货市场情绪一般 市场分析 1、7月24日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2509合约下午收盘价3602元/吨，较昨日结算价下跌0.28%；持仓186523 手，环比下降11661手，成交166978手，环比下跌34978手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3900—4086元/吨；山东，3610—4070元/吨；华南，3560—3600元/吨； 华东，3660—3800元/吨。 近日BU盘面走势转弱，除了基准油价的回调外，稀释沥青原料供应增加的预期也对沥青成本端形成一定压制。华 北、山东以及华南市场沥青现货价格均有所下跌，其余区域沥青现货价格均以持稳为主，整体市场情绪一般。就 沥青自身基本面而言，整体供需两弱格局延续，降雨天气对终端需求释放形成阻碍，不过库存仍处于低位，还未 出现明显累库信号，市场短期压力有限，但上行驱动不足。 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 ...