新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-10-21 现货方面：2025-10-20，LME铅现货升水为-41.85美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化25元/吨至16925 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至-25.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化50元/ 吨至17025元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化25元/吨至17000元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日 变化50元/吨至17050元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-50元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/ 吨至10000元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10150元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10400元/吨。 期货方面：2025-10-20，沪铅主力合约开于17075元/吨，收于17060元/吨，较前一交易日变化-15元/吨，全天交易日 成交27656手，较前一交易日变化-11986手，全天交易日持仓38195手，手较前一交易日变化-2023手，日内价格震 荡，最高点达到17155元/吨，最低点达到17055元/吨。夜盘方面，沪铅主力合约开于17130元/吨，收于 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is rated as neutral [4][6] 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply of soybeans is tight, and the futures price of soybeans reached a new high in the current period. The new soybeans in the Huanghuaihai region are expected to be slowly launched, and the harvest and launch of new soybeans in the southern region are generally delayed. For peanuts, the futures price fluctuated downward, with stable supply in the Northeast. The market should focus on the actual supply progress and quality of summer-sown peanuts in Henan and Shandong, and also pay attention to whether the oil mills' procurement can support the price later [1][3][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the soybeans 2511 contract yesterday was 4086.00 yuan/ton, up 58.00 yuan/ton or 1.44% from the previous day. Spot: The basis of edible soybeans was A11 - 46, down 58 or 32.14% from the previous day [1] Market Information Summary - The new-season soybean harvest in the Northeast is almost finished. Grain trading enterprises are actively purchasing, and high-protein soybeans are in high demand. The prices of low-protein common soybeans range from 1.75 - 1.8 yuan/jin, 39% protein soybeans are 1.9 yuan/jin, and over 40% protein soybeans are 1.95 - 2 yuan/jin. The prices of tower grains vary according to protein content. The prices of standard first-class medium-grained tower grains in various regions of Heilongjiang remained stable compared to the previous day [2] Market Situation - The futures price of soybeans reached a new high. Affected by the southern production reduction, the market sentiment in the Northeast was high, and high-protein soybeans had a strong upward trend. The Huanghuaihai region was in a state of supply shortage, and new soybeans were expected to be launched slowly. Continuous rainfall in the South delayed the autumn harvest, and the large-scale launch of new soybeans was postponed. In some areas, the wet surface farmland ratio exceeded 50%, and the limited number of drying towers exacerbated the tight spot circulation [3] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [4] Peanut View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanuts 2511 contract yesterday was 7958.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan/ton or 0.38% from the previous day. Spot: The average spot price of peanuts was 8350.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The basis was PK11 + 242.00, down 30.00 or 11.03% from the previous day [4] Market Information Summary - The average price of common peanuts in the national market was basically stable at 4.18 yuan/jin. The prices in different regions varied, and the supply was scarce in some areas. The contract procurement prices of oil mills for common peanuts were 8200 - 8300 yuan/ton, and for oil peanuts were 7800 - 7900 yuan/ton, with a slight decrease in arrivals [4] Market Situation - The peanut futures price fluctuated downward. The supply in the Northeast was stable with obvious quality advantages, and the market mainly purchased Northeast peanuts. With the improvement of weather in Henan and Shandong, the supply of summer-sown peanuts was expected to increase. Currently, the demand support was limited, and attention should be paid to whether the oil mills' procurement can support the price later [5] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [6]

2025-10-20，碳酸锂主力合约2511开于76260元/吨，收于75700元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化-0.08%。当日 成交量为169108手，持仓量为138434手，前一交易日持仓量159000手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为-1960元/ 吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单30705手，较上个交易日变化19手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价73500-74500元/吨，较前一交易日变化650元/吨，工业级碳酸锂报 价71150-72350元/吨，较前一交易日变化650元/吨。6%锂精矿价格860美元/吨，较前一日变化10美元/吨。据SMM 数据，当前下游材料厂开工率持续走高，需求支撑现货成交。供应方面，锂辉石端和盐湖端均有新产线投产，预 计10月碳酸锂总产量仍具备增长潜力。需求方面，动力市场新能源汽车商用乘用同时快速增长；储能市场供需两 旺。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-10-21 锂矿进口增加，消费支撑现货价格 市场分析 期权：无 当天期货盘面偏弱小幅震荡运行，进口端锂矿增加较多，锂盐进口环比小幅降低，总体进口相对较好，仓单快速 去化放缓，仓单开始小幅增加。目前 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-10-21 二育入场支撑，猪价短期偏强 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2601合约12155元/吨，较前交易日变动+485.00元/吨，幅度+4.16%。现货方面，河南地 区外三元生猪价格11.58元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.31元/公斤，现货基差 LH01-575，较前交易日变动-185；江苏 地区外三元生猪价格 11.56元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.10元/公斤，现货基差LH01-595，较前交易日变动-365；四 川地区外三元生猪价格10.88元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.05元/公斤，现货基差LH01-1275，较前交易日变动-435。 据农业农村部监测，10月20日"农产品批发价格200指数"为120.13，比上周五上升0.37个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格 指数为121.28，比上周五上升0.44个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为17.72元/公斤，比上周五下降1.7%； 牛肉66.14元/公斤，比上周五下降0.3%；羊肉61.76元/公斤，与上周五持平；鸡蛋7.48元/公斤，比上周五下降0.5%； 白条鸡17.57元/公斤，比上周五下降0. ...

主港延续累库，EG承压运行 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4003元/吨（较前一交易日变动+0元/吨，幅度+0.00%），EG华东市场现货价 4094元/吨（较前一交易日变动-2元/吨，幅度-0.05%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）72元/吨（环比-2元/吨）。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-64美元/吨（环比+0美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为-599元/吨（环比 -54元/吨）。 化工日报 | 2025-10-21 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为57.9万吨（环比+3.8万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为49.3万吨（环比+5.0万吨）。据CCF数据，上周主港实际到货总数10.5万吨，港口库 存继续累库；本周华东主港计划到港总数5.3万吨，副港计划到港量6.3万吨，库存预计持稳。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，国内乙二醇负荷高位运行，海外乙二醇海外供应损失依旧较多，沙特仍有两套以 上装置处于停车或低负荷运行状态，预期变化不大。需求端，高关税下旺季不旺，聚酯负荷提升高度有限，但刚 需仍存。整体EG平衡表四 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral. BR is also rated neutral [7] Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, due to Sino - US tariff game, demand expectations are weakening, making futures prices weaker while the spot market remains firm due to slowed domestic arrivals. With reduced rainfall in domestic production areas, raw material prices are falling. Thai production areas may see increased cup - rubber supply later. Although downstream tire factory开工率 is rising and exports are resilient, overall domestic supply - demand is expected to become looser and inventory reduction may slow down. Currently, the valuations of RU and NR are low, and prices are expected to move within a range [7] - For butadiene rubber, in late October, more upstream butadiene rubber plant overhauls in China may reduce supply and support prices. Downstream tire factory开工率 is rising and exports are resilient. Supply - demand may improve, and raw material prices are expected to be stable. Surrounding natural rubber prices also provide bottom - support. However, high current inventories may limit the rebound space, and prices are expected to be more likely to rise than fall this week [7] Market News and Data Futures - The closing price of the RU main contract was 14,810 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,180 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,840 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton [1] Spot - The Shanghai market price of Yunnan - produced whole latex was 14,200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,550 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,830 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,730 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 10,900 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Market Information Heavy - Truck Sales - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), up about 82% year - on - year and 15% month - on - month, hitting a new high for the same period in recent years [2] Natural Rubber Imports - In September 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 595,900 tons, up 14.41% month - on - month and 20.92% year - on - year. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4.7172 million tons, up 19.65% year - on - year [2] Automobile Production and Sales - In September 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million vehicles respectively, up 16.4% and 12.9% month - on - month, and 17.1% and 14.9% year - on - year. For the first time in history, automobile production and sales in the same period exceeded 3 million vehicles, and the monthly year - on - year growth rate has remained above 10% for 5 consecutive months [3] Rubber Tire Exports - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 7.28 million tons, up 5% year - on - year; the export value was 127.7 billion yuan, up 4.2% year - on - year. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 7.02 million tons, up 4.7% year - on - year; the export value was 122.7 billion yuan, up 4% year - on - year. In terms of the number of tires, the export volume was 534.91 million, up 5.4% year - on - year. The export volume of automobile tires was 6.22 million tons, up 4.5% year - on - year; the export value was 105.5 billion yuan, up 3.6% year - on - year [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber Spot and Spreads - On October 20, 2025, the RU basis was - 610 yuan/ton (- 15), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 260 yuan/ton (+ 115), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,197 yuan/ton (+ 189.37), the NR basis was 801.00 yuan/ton (+ 42.00); the price of whole latex was 14,200 yuan/ton (+ 100), the price of mixed rubber was 14,550 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of 3L spot was 14,950 yuan/ton (+ 50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,830 US dollars/ton (+ 0), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 750 yuan/ton (+ 50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,250 yuan/ton (+ 0) [4] Raw Materials - The price of Thai smoked sheet was 57.37 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.22), the price of Thai glue was 54.10 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.00), the price of Thai cup lump was 50.45 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.25), the spread between Thai glue and cup lump was 3.65 Thai baht/kg (- 0.25) [4] 开工率 - The开工率 of all - steel tires was 63.96% (+ 22.43%), and the开工率 of semi - steel tires was 71.07% (+ 28.92%) [5] Inventory - The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,112,557 tons (- 122,953.00), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 461,188 tons (- 125,451), the RU futures inventory was 135,000 tons (- 9,390), and the NR futures inventory was 40,119 tons (- 1,210) [5] Butadiene Rubber Spot and Spreads - On October 20, 2025, the BR basis was 60 yuan/ton (+ 85), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 8,600 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,200 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 10,900 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 10,700 yuan/ton (- 50), the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,963 yuan/ton (+ 168) [6] 开工率 - The开工率 of high - cis butadiene rubber was 74.82% (+ 0.13%) [6] Inventory - The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 4,860 tons (- 840), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 27,900 tons (+ 1,300) [6]

纯苯苯乙烯日报 | 2025-10-21 苯乙烯亏损性检修增多 纯苯与苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯主力基差74元/吨（+25）。纯苯港口库存9.90万吨（+0.90万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费147美元/吨（+1 美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加工费131美元/吨（+1美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差88.5美元/吨（+5.0美元/吨）。华东纯苯现 货-M2价差35元/吨（-15元/吨）。 纯苯下游方面：己内酰胺生产利润-1810元/吨（+55），酚酮生产利润-600元/吨（+25），苯胺生产利润826元/吨（+348）， 己二酸生产利润-1207元/吨（+72）。己内酰胺开工率92.41%（-3.59%），苯酚开工率78.00%（+0.00%），苯胺开工 率75.73%（-1.43%），己二酸开工率59.10%（-7.80%）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差65元/吨（+53元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润-623元/吨（-14元/吨），预期逐步压缩。 苯乙烯华东港口库存202500吨（+6000吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存122500吨（+1000吨），处于库存回建阶段。苯乙 烯开工率71.9%（-1.7 ...

贵金属日报 | 2025-10-21 美国政府停摆有望结束 贵金属价格企稳回升 市场分析 美国政府方面，白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特表示，他认为政府停摆可能在本周某个时候结束；但如果这 种情况没有发生，白宫将考虑采取更强有力的措施，以促使民主党人参与谈判。此外，美国总统特朗普和澳大利 亚总理阿尔巴尼斯周一在白宫签署了一项关于稀土和关键矿物的协议；白宫在声明中称，美国政府和澳大利亚政 府计划在未来6个月共同向关键矿产项目投资超30亿美元，这些项目的可采资源价值估计为530亿美元；白宫指出， 五角大楼将在西澳大利亚州投资建设一个年产能100吨的镓加工厂。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-10-20，沪金主力合约开于989.70元/克，收于970.32元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动-2.95%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于990.00元/克，收于998.58元/克，较昨日午后收盘上涨2.91%。 2025-10-20，沪银主力合约开于12057.00元/千克，收于11742.00元/千克，较前一交易日收盘变动-4.14%。当日成交 量为2455760手，持仓量为43 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The polyester industry chain is operating weakly, and attention should be paid to macro - changes. The current situation is affected by the Sino - US trade war, and the meeting between the leaders of the two countries around the end of the month should be continuously monitored. The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will discuss the "15th Five - Year Plan" and economic work, which also needs attention [2]. - In terms of the cost side, there is a supply - surplus contradiction due to the slowdown in China's import demand after the National Day and the increase in US and Middle - East exports. The macro and fundamentals are in resonance, putting pressure on the fundamentals without a clear rebound driver [3]. - PX is under pressure due to the recovery of China's PX load to a relatively high level, few fourth - quarter maintenance plans, and capacity expansion of some devices. The downstream PTA plants have many maintenance plans, and the PX supply - demand support is limited [3]. - TA has a new device expected to be put into operation next month, with increasing inventory pressure after November. The cost - side support is weakening, and the demand is not strong during the peak season due to tariffs [3]. - The polyester start - up rate is 91.4% (down 0.1% month - on - month). After the National Day, the market calmed down, and filament inventory increased again. Terminal raw material procurement is mainly cautious. The weaving and texturing load decreased this week under high tariffs [4]. - PF has improved demand, with factory inventory reduced to a low level. The short - term supply - demand situation of direct - spun polyester staple fiber is better than that of the raw material end, and the processing fee is expected to be strong [4][5]. - PR's fundamentals have little change, with maintenance continuing but general demand. The spot processing fee of bottle chips is expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to raw material price fluctuations [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - The report includes figures such as the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [10][11][13]. Upstream Profit and Spread - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN (PX China CFR - naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][21]. International Spread and Import - Export Profit - It involves figures like the toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [26][28]. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the operating rates of China, South Korea, and Taiwan's PTA, as well as China's and Asia's PX [29][32][34]. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It includes figures of PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [37][40][41]. Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operating rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving, texturing, and dyeing [50][52][54]. PF Detailed Data - It includes figures of polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, difference between raw and recycled fibers, pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [71][82][86]. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures cover polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip factory bottle chip inventory days, bottle chip spot processing fee, bottle chip export processing fee, bottle chip export profit, difference between East China water bottle chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, bottle chip next - month spread, and bottle chip next - next - month spread [89][91][99].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View - Zinc prices may face pressure due to increasing supply and potential disappointment in consumption during the peak season, but the impact of overseas inventories needs attention [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $136.85/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 21,870 yuan/ton, with a premium of -40 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 21,820 yuan/ton, with a premium of -100 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 21,870 yuan/ton, with a premium of -40 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On October 20, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 21,885 yuan/ton and closed at 21,855 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 86,404 lots, and the position was 65,610 lots. The highest price was 21,945 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 21,820 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of October 20, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 165,300 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 37,325 tons, a decrease of 700 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - There is restocking in the spot market as zinc prices fall, but social inventories are increasing and may exceed the five - year average. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. The TC of domestic and imported zinc ores is rising, leading to higher smelting profits and continuous smelting enthusiasm. The supply is expected to increase, and the upward trend of TC is expected to continue. Supply pressure is prominent, and domestic inventory accumulation is expected even during the peak consumption season. If the peak - season consumption expectation fails, zinc prices will face significant pressure [4] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bearish. - **Arbitrage**: Neutral [5]