1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: Suspended [7] - Options: Sell put options [7] 2. Core View of the Report - Although domestic demand is affected by high copper prices, subsidies for some end - products in 2026 will continue, TC is still at a low level, and mine supply is tight. It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with the range between 99,600 yuan/ton and 101,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the impact of Trump's tariff policy on Comex inventory [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes - On January 15, 2026, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 104,350 yuan/ton and closed at 102,810 yuan/ton, a - 1.26% decline from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 103,030 yuan/ton and closed at 102,860 yuan/ton, a 0.23% decline from the afternoon close [1] 3.1.2 Spot Situation - SMM 1 electrolytic copper spot quoted a premium of 80 - 320 yuan/ton to the 2601 contract, with an average premium of 200 yuan, up 60 yuan from the previous day. The spot price range was 102,160 - 102,990 yuan/ton. The main 2602 contract traded between 101,530 - 103,500 yuan/ton. The cross - month spread was between Contango 380 - 200 yuan, and the monthly import loss was about 1,560 - 1,770 yuan/ton. Shanghai's inventory increased by 17,400 tons compared to January 12, mainly in the form of warehouse receipts [2] 3.1.3 Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: On January 14, the US government announced that President Trump signed an executive order to impose a 25% tariff on semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment and their derivatives [3] - **Economic Data**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 9,000 to 198,000, significantly lower than the market expectation of 215,000, the lowest level since November last year. The four - week moving average dropped to 205,000, a two - year low [3] - **Fed Chair News**: Trump has no plan to fire Powell, and he tends to choose the next Fed chair between Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett [3] 3.2 Supply - related Information 3.2.1 Mine End - Global key mineral supply chains are under increasing pressure. The demand for copper, lithium, nickel and rare earths is growing faster than new supply. About $5 trillion of cumulative investment is needed by 2035 to meet key mineral demand, and current exploration spending is 40% - 50% lower than required. The average cycle from discovery to first production is 16 years. Codelco's Ministo Hales copper mine's expansion project to extend its mining life to 2054 has obtained environmental approval, with an investment of $2.8 billion and a planned increase in annual output from 170,000 tons to 200,000 tons [4] 3.2.2 Smelting and Import - Elemental Group plans to invest $800 million in two core projects, with two - thirds for a copper smelting and refining plant and the rest for a power battery metal refinery. The projects are named "Polvolt" and have received EU and Polish government subsidies [5] 3.3 Consumption Information - China's unforged copper and copper products imports in December 2025 were 437,000 tons, up from 427,000 tons in November. The cumulative imports in 2025 were 5.321 million tons, a 6.4% year - on - year decrease [5] 3.4 Inventory and Warehouse Receipt Information - LME warehouse receipts changed by 75,000 tons to 141,125 tons compared to the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 13,378 tons to 162,717 tons. On January 12, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 320,900 tons, a change of 27,500 tons from the previous week [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Neutral [9] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [9] - Aluminum alloy: Neutral [9] - Arbitrage: Neutral [9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapid rise in aluminum prices may suppress consumption and create a short - term negative feedback loop. Although the short - term fundamentals show limited positive signs, macro - factors will drive long - term price increases [6]. - The spot price of alumina is slightly declining, with weakening market sentiment. The cost support is weakening, the supply is in surplus, and there is no strong support for price increases [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Important Data Aluminum Spot - On January 15, 2026, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 24,190 yuan/ton, a change of - 480 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount was - 130 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - The price of Central Plains A00 aluminum was 24,030 yuan/ton, with the spot premium/discount changing - 50 yuan/ton to - 290 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 24,220 yuan/ton, a change of - 470 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The aluminum spot premium/discount changed - 40 yuan/ton to - 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. Aluminum Futures - On January 15, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 24,610 yuan/ton, closed at 24,375 yuan/ton, a change of - 370 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 24,780 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 24,065 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 766,880 lots, and the holding volume was 346,831 lots [2]. Inventory - As of January 15, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 736,000 tons, a change of 6,000 tons from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 138,083 tons, a change of 4,518 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 490,000 tons, a change of - 2,000 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On January 15, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,625 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,575 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,655 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,735 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,775 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 310 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On January 15, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,804 yuan/ton, closed at 2,789 yuan/ton, a change of - 6 yuan/ton or - 0.21% from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price was 2,817 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 2,761 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 618,962 lots, and the holding volume was 508,785 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On January 15, 2026, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 17,600 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 17,900 yuan/ton, with a price change of - 400 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation for ADC12 was 23,600 yuan/ton, with a price change of - 200 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 69,300 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 60,200 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 23,119 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 481 yuan/ton [5] Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - The price of Shanghai aluminum is fluctuating at a high level, suppressing consumption and potentially creating a short - term negative feedback. The current stockpiling speed is fast due to the late Spring Festival this year, and it is difficult for prices to decline in the short term. However, macro - factors are the main drivers for long - term price increases [6]. Alumina - The spot market price is slightly declining, the market sentiment is weakening, and the basis is narrowing. The cost support is weakening, and the supply is in surplus, with the possibility of inventory over - capacity in the future [7][8] Strategy - Unilateral trading: Aluminum - neutral; Alumina - cautiously bearish; Aluminum alloy - neutral [9] - Arbitrage: Neutral [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Supply-side PDH device maintenance information keeps releasing, leading to a phased tightening of propylene supply and expected alleviation of supply pressure. Demand-side downstream rigid demand persists, but demand follow-up may be limited after price hikes. Cost-side raw material cost support remains. Under the improvement of supply and demand and sentiment boost, propylene prices continue to be strong. Follow-up attention should be paid to cost changes and PDH device maintenance implementation [3]. - For the strategy, it is recommended to cautiously buy on dips for hedging. The supply and demand structure has slightly improved, but the easing of geopolitical disturbances has caused oil prices to fall from highs, and the short-term upward trend of the propylene market may slow down [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Propylene basis structure is presented through figures such as the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China basis, Shandong basis, 03 - 04 contract spread, and PL03 - 05 contract spread, as well as market prices in East China, Shandong, and South China [7][12][15] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Propylene production profit and operating rate are shown in figures including the difference between China's CFR propylene and Japan's CFR naphtha, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil refinery capacity utilization rate [18][21][25] 3. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - Propylene downstream profit and operating rate are presented in figures such as PP powder production profit and operating rate, propylene oxide production profit and operating rate, n - butanol production profit and capacity utilization rate, octanol production profit and capacity utilization rate, acrylic acid production profit and capacity utilization rate, acrylonitrile production profit and capacity utilization rate, and phenol - acetone production profit and capacity utilization rate [37][43][49] 4. Propylene Inventory - Propylene inventory is shown in figures of propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [62]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Report's Core View - The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market is weak. Although there is still resilience in export orders before April due to the cancellation of export tax rebates starting from April 1st, the supply is abundant, the downstream start - up is expected to decline, the inventory is at a high level, and the cost - end profit is low. The supply - demand relationship of subsequent contracts will be further relaxed after April [3]. - The supply - demand of caustic soda is weak. The spot price is stable with a downward trend, affected by low - price warehouse receipts. The supply is at a high level, the demand is general, the export orders are sluggish, and the inventory in Shandong continues to accumulate [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs PVC Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4868 yuan/ton (-10); the East China basis is -228 yuan/ton (+10); the South China basis is -248 yuan/ton (+10) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4640 yuan/ton (+0); the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4620 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 750 yuan/ton (+0); the calcium carbide price is 2805 yuan/ton (+0); the calcium carbide profit is -85 yuan/ton (+0); the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is -662 yuan/ton (-29); the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is -138 yuan/ton (+54); the PVC export profit is -6.2 US dollars/ton (+2.8) [1]. - Inventory and start - up: The in - factory PVC inventory is 31.1 tons (-1.7); the social PVC inventory is 56.2 tons (+1.5); the start - up rate of PVC calcium carbide method is 80.66% (+0.43%); the start - up rate of PVC ethylene method is 75.48% (-0.21%); the overall PVC start - up rate is 79.08% (+0.23%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 92.6 tons (+1.7) [1]. Market Analysis - Supply side: Domestic PVC supply is abundant, the start - up rate has rebounded. Two new enterprises are under maintenance this week, and Fujian Wanhua will enter maintenance next week, with a expected slight decline in supply [3]. - Demand side: The downstream start - up has declined slightly. The start - up of pipes and profiles has decreased, while that of films remains flat. There is an expectation of further decline in subsequent start - up. Downstream enterprises purchase on dips, and the trading is light when the market rebounds, with an increase in purchases by hedgers [3]. - Inventory: The social inventory has slightly increased and is at a high level year - on - year [3]. - Cost: The upstream chlor - alkali production profit has been somewhat repaired due to the slight rebound of caustic soda and PVC spot, but it is still low year - on - year. The prices of calcium carbide and semi - coke are stable, and their profits are still in a loss state [3]. Strategy - Single - side: Sideways [4]. - Inter - period: Go long on the V03 - 05 spread when it is low [4]. - Inter - variety: None [4]. Caustic Soda Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2057 yuan/ton (-36); the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is -1 yuan/ton (-8) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is quoted at 658 yuan/ton (-14); the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is quoted at 1080 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The profit of a single caustic soda variety in Shandong is 1031 yuan/ton (-44); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 584.0 yuan/ton (-3.8); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is -322.95 yuan/ton (-43.75); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 503.49 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - Inventory and start - up: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 51.21 tons (+1.70); the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.90 tons (-0.18); the caustic soda start - up rate is 86.70% (+0.10%) [2]. - Downstream start - up: The start - up rate of alumina is 85.74% (+1.07%); the start - up rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 58.76% (-1.33%); the start - up rate of viscose staple fiber is 88.43% (+0.00%) [2]. Market Analysis - Supply side: The overall start - up is at a high level, the price of liquid caustic soda is declining, the willingness of chlor - alkali enterprises to support the price of liquid chlorine is increasing, the start - up load of the liquid chlorine downstream has increased, the price of liquid chlorine has risen, and there are few planned maintenance enterprises for caustic soda [3]. - Demand side: The downstream receiving sentiment is general. The start - up of alumina plants is relatively stable, but the unloading efficiency is average. The main alumina plants in Shandong have lowered the purchase price of 32% caustic soda to 645 yuan/ton. The non - aluminum sector is gradually entering the seasonal off - season, and export orders continue to be sluggish [3]. Strategy - Single - side: Cautiously bearish [5]. - Inter - period: Go short on the SH03 - 05 spread when it is high [5]. - Inter - variety: None [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - Inflation is a prominent narrative. China will continue to boost consumption and promote "anti-involution." The central bank has cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year. The RMB exchange rate is expected to continue to float bidirectionally [2] - There is a certain differentiation in domestic and overseas economic climates. Overseas economic climate has been declining since October, while China's exports and new orders remain positive. China's foreign trade is accelerating its recovery, and its economic data in December is generally better. The US economic data is mixed, with increasing expectations of interest rate cuts [3] - Currently, focus on non-ferrous metals and precious metals with high certainty. There are opportunities for low-valued commodities to catch up in price. Pay attention to the short - term emotional risks of the new energy sector, the development of the Iranian situation, the "anti-involution" space of chemical products, weather conditions for agricultural products, and opportunities to buy precious metals at low prices [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized boosting consumption and "anti-involution." The 2026 PBOC work conference focused on promoting high - quality economic development and reasonable price recovery, and cut the interest rates of structural monetary policy tools. The geopolitical situation between Iran and Venezuela has tightened, and the CME will change the margin setting method for precious metal contracts [2] - There is a differentiation in domestic and overseas economic climates. China's foreign trade is improving, with exports and imports in December exceeding expectations. The official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs in December are in the expansion range. The US economic data is mixed, with the ISM manufacturing index falling, non - farm payrolls missing expectations, but overall economic improvement according to the Fed's Beige Book. There are increasing expectations of US interest rate cuts [3] Commodity Analysis - Focus on non - ferrous metals and precious metals. Non - ferrous metals have long - term supply constraints, and aluminum and nickel are preferred within the sector. Pay attention to short - term emotional risks in the new energy sector. The US will "sell on behalf" of Venezuelan oil, and the Iranian situation has temporarily cooled. There is "anti - involution" space in the chemical sector, and agricultural products are affected by weather and pig diseases. There are opportunities to buy precious metals at low prices [4] Strategy - The strategy for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] Important News - As of the end of December, M2, M1, and M0 have different year - on - year growth rates, and there is a net cash injection for the whole year. The balance of local and foreign currency loans and RMB loans has increased year - on - year [7] - The PBOC has cut the interest rates of re - loans and rediscounts by 0.25 percentage points since January 19, 2026. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year [7] - The US Supreme Court has not ruled on the legality of Trump's tariff policy. Fed officials have different stances on interest rates. Trump has no current plan to fire Powell, but the situation is still uncertain. The Iranian situation has temporarily cooled, and international oil prices have fallen [7] - Japan's largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, has decided to form a new political party with the Komeito Party [7]

黑色建材日报 | 2026-01-16 市场成交偏弱，铁矿小幅回落 玻璃纯碱：产销表现平淡，玻碱震荡运行 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日主力合约延续区间震荡走势，收盘价格小幅下探。现货市场报价持稳，厂家产销表现平淡，期现 市场交投氛围冷清。供需和逻辑：部分产线进入冷修，开工率有所回落，但新增产能逐步释放，供应收缩力度受 限；需求端受房地产开工淡季影响，浮法玻璃需求持续疲软，光伏玻璃需求以刚需采购为主，未能形成有效拉动。 整体而言，需求端的低迷状态抵消了供应端收缩带来的支撑作用。 纯碱：昨日纯碱主力合约呈现宽幅震荡下行态势，日环比下跌2.05%。现货端，报价随盘面同步走低，成交活跃度 一般，下游企业以刚需补库为主。供需与逻辑：开工率维持高位，整体累库趋势显著，供应压力持续凸显；临近 春节假期，下游产线冷修增多，市场节前补库预期偏弱，整体交投情绪趋于谨慎。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡偏弱 纯碱方面：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 宏观及房地产政策、浮法玻璃下游需求、纯碱产线检修和库存变化等。 双硅：供需矛盾不突出，铁合金震荡运行 市场分析 硅锰方面：昨日钢联公布了本周建材消费数据，整体看产销表现尚可，硅锰期货跟随黑色震 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways [1][2] - Iron Ore: Sideways [3][4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Sideways [5][6][7] - Thermal Coal: No specific rating, expected to trade in a narrow range [8] 2. Core Views - The market trading volume is weak, with steel prices fluctuating, iron ore prices slightly declining, and coking coal and coke prices moving sideways. Thermal coal prices are expected to trade in a narrow range due to a stalemate in port trading [1][3][5][8]. - For steel, the fundamentals of building materials have slightly weakened, while those of plates have limited contradictions. The short - term price depends on cost changes [1]. - For iron ore, the supply is relatively sufficient, but the demand has slightly declined. The supply - demand contradiction is increasing, and the price will move sideways in the short term [3]. - For coking coal and coke, the supply is stable, but the coke enterprises are facing losses and may raise prices. The steel enterprises are close to the break - even point. The short - term price trend is sideways [5][6]. - For thermal coal, the downstream demand has not met expectations, and the price is expected to trade in a narrow range. Attention should be paid to the supply pattern and non - power coal consumption [8]. 3. Summaries by Related Categories Steel - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are 3160 yuan/ton and 3307 yuan/ton respectively. The output of the five major steel products has slightly increased this week, the inventory has decreased, and the consumption has increased significantly. The national building materials trading volume is 8.62 tons [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The fundamentals of building materials have slightly weakened, and the downstream winter storage and restocking have been delayed, leading to a rebound in inventory. The fundamentals of plates have limited contradictions, but high inventory suppresses price elasticity. The short - term price depends on cost changes [1]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - side trading, no strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The futures price of iron ore has slightly declined. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties in Tangshan ports are weak. The total trading volume of iron ore in major ports nationwide is 98.1 tons, a 20.29% decrease from the previous period. The total trading volume of forward spot is 106.0 tons, a 5.02% decrease. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills this week is 228 tons, a decrease of 1.49 tons. The total inventory of 45 ports is 16555 tons, a 1.7% increase [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply at ports is increasing, and the supply is relatively sufficient. The short - term profitability of steel mills has recovered, but the daily average pig iron output has slightly declined. The supply - demand contradiction is increasing, and the total inventory is rising. However, due to the weakening of the liquidity of some port supplies, the ore price remains high, and steel mills have insufficient short - term restocking willingness [3]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - side trading, no strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of coking coal and coke have moved sideways. The price of coal for blast furnace injection is stable, and the coking profit has been repaired. The supply in the production area has steadily increased, and the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has rapidly recovered, with the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at around 1070 - 1080 yuan/ton [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The overall supply of coke is stable. Affected by the rising price of coking coal at the cost end, the losses of coke enterprises have intensified, and there are production restrictions. The downstream purchasing sentiment has improved, and coke plants may raise prices in the near future. For coking coal, the supply is increasing steadily, suppressing the market. The inventory at ports and in factories is high, and the pressure to reduce inventory is large [6]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for both coking coal and coke in single - side trading, no strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [7]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production area, the prices are still rising and falling. The downstream non - power terminals are still restocking on a need - basis. The demand for high - quality coal is high, and the inventory is decreasing, with the price rising steadily. The speculative demand is poor, and there is more resistance to high - priced coal. The inventory of coal mines with relatively poor coal quality is accumulating, and they are selling at a reduced grade. At ports, the market is loosening, and traders are willing to sell at a reduced price before the Spring Festival to reduce inventory, but the actual trading volume is small. The imported coal market is relatively stable [8]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The coal price has been rising slightly recently, but the downstream demand has not met expectations, and the downstream is more wait - and - see. The coal supply has high elasticity, and attention should be paid to the supply pattern, non - power coal consumption, and restocking [8]. - **Strategy**: No specific strategy [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The RMB is expected to be range - bound and may show stronger characteristics. The current economic situation shows that the economic expectation gap is favorable for the RMB, the Sino - US interest rate difference is neutral, and trade policy uncertainty is neutral. If US inflation or employment data weakens further, the RMB may test the 6.90 - 6.95 range. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of export settlement and changes in global risk appetite [47]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Quantity - price and Policy Signals 3.1.1 Quantity - price Observation - The implied volatility curve of the 3 - month USD/CNY option shows an appreciation trend of the RMB, with the volatility on the Put side higher than that on the Call side, and the Put - side volatility slightly decreasing [4]. 3.1.2 Policy Observation - The value of the counter - cyclical factor has shifted downwards, and the negative adjustment signal has strengthened. The three - month CNH HIBOR - SHIBOR spread fluctuates [9]. 3.2 Fundamentals and Views 3.2.1 Macro 3.2.1.1 Interest Rate and Liquidity - There is a divergence in the pricing of interest rate cuts between the US and Europe. The TGA account balance on January 7 was 783.5 billion (- 89.2 billion), and the reserve balance of deposit institutions in November was 2.87 trillion (- 65.6 billion) [16]. 3.2.1.2 US Economic Data - Employment authority has declined, non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, and inflation in November was lower than expected, supporting subsequent interest rate cuts. Economic expectations have been revised upwards, with a slight decline in PMI and a slight increase in real estate sales in November [18]. 3.2.1.3 Fed Chair Candidates - Trump has no plan to replace Powell for now and is open to the choice of the next Fed chair. Different candidates have different views on interest rate policies, such as Christopher Waller advocating for a cautious interest rate cut, Kevin Warsh calling for a large - scale balance sheet reduction to create room for rate cuts [19][20]. 3.2.1.4 Inflation - The CPI performance in the US in December was moderate, with a slight increase in the contribution of food and core commodities, a decline in the contribution of crude oil, and a decline in the contribution of core services. The pricing of interest rate cuts changed little after the data release [21]. 3.2.1.5 Non - farm Payrolls - In December, non - farm payrolls showed a K - shaped divergence. Employment in trade, transportation, construction, and manufacturing decreased, while employment in services, education, and healthcare continued to increase, and government employment also increased. The unemployment rate was affected by different factors, and the employment environment was deteriorating [24]. 3.2.1.6 Chinese Economy - There is a structural divergence in the Chinese economy. In November, imports and exports showed resilience, but fixed - asset investment faced pressure and consumption slowed down. Against the background of increasing pressure, the government's policy window has loosened, and the gap between fundamentals and sentiment has widened [25]. 3.2.1.7 December Exports - The characteristics of re - exports continued. Exports to the US and Canada decreased, while exports to ASEAN, India, and South Africa increased. Items such as automobiles, mechanical and electrical products, integrated circuits, and high - tech products showed obvious resilience, as did exports of raw materials such as aluminum and steel [27]. 3.2.2 2026 Monetary Policy - The policy focuses on reducing the re - lending rate by 25BP, setting up a 1 - trillion RMB re - loan for private enterprises, adding 400 billion RMB in technological transformation quotas, and reducing inventory of commercial real estate. The policy features "moderate in aggregate and precise in structure", and the RMB exchange rate maintains strong resilience supported by high - level foreign exchange reserves and stable settlement - sales surpluses [30]. 3.3 Core Content Interpretation 3.3.1 Settlement and Sale of Foreign Exchange - In December 2025, the bank's foreign exchange settlement was significantly higher than its sale. The annual pattern was a net settlement. The settlement rate of received foreign exchange rose to 61.01%, and the purchase rate of paid - out foreign exchange fell to 55.41% [35][36]. - In December 2025, the bank's agent for overseas receipts was higher than payments, showing a surplus. The annual situation was a net inflow. In the current account, the contribution of goods trade was significant, increasing from about 726.66 billion in November to about 1259.22 billion in December, strongly driving the surplus in receipts and payments [43]. 3.3.2 Overall View - The RMB is expected to be range - bound against the US dollar. If US inflation or employment data weakens further, the RMB may show stronger characteristics, and there is a possibility of testing the 6.90 - 6.95 range in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of export settlement and changes in global risk appetite [47]. 3.3.3 2026 Scenario Deduction - Throughout 2026, there will be important events such as Fed chair candidate announcements, FOMC meetings, government work reports, and national two - sessions. These events will affect policy expectations, inventory cycles, and economic re - balancing, as well as lead to tariff games and changes in the Fed's stance [50].

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes the global coffee market from aspects of supply, consumption, export, import, and inventory, presenting the current status and trends of the global coffee industry [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - **Global Supply Situation**: From 2016/17 to 2025/26, global coffee production increased from 966.474 million tons to 1072.08 million tons, with a net increase of 105.606 million tons and a cumulative increase of 10.93% over the decade. The growth was non - linear, with significant fluctuations due to climate and planting cycles. In 2018/19, production had the largest increase, while in 2021/22, it had the largest decrease. Regionally, Brazil, Vietnam, and Colombia dominated the global supply, with Brazil's share fluctuating between 32.6% and 39.59%. In terms of varieties, Robusta's production grew steadily with an annual compound growth rate of 3.53%, while Arabica's production decreased with a rate of - 0.44% [9][12][17]. - **Supply Structure and Characteristics of Each Region**: Brazil was the largest producer, with a mixed production of Arabica and Robusta. Vietnam was the second - largest producer and the largest Robusta producer. Colombia was the third - largest producer, mainly producing washed Arabica. Ethiopia produced only Arabica, and Indonesia had a high proportion of Robusta [22][23][24]. Consumption - **Global Coffee Consumption Trend**: From 2016/17 to 2025/26, global coffee consumption increased from 930.624 million tons to 1016.178 million tons, with an average annual compound growth rate of 0.97%. Roasted and ground coffee consumption accounted for about 84% on average, and instant coffee accounted for 16%. Both types showed a growth trend [25]. - **Consumption Structure and Characteristics of Each Major Region**: The EU, the US, and Brazil were the top three consumers globally. Europe had a mature market for freshly - ground coffee, with slow growth. North America's total consumption remained stable, with strong growth in instant coffee. South America's consumption market was mature, and Asia was the fastest - growing region, with China's consumption growing significantly at a compound annual growth rate of 10.69% [30][31][33]. Export - **Global Coffee Export Overview**: From 2016/17 to 2025/2026, global coffee export volume increased from 801.636 million tons to 891.198 million tons, with a compound annual growth rate of 1.18%. Bean exports dominated, with an average share of 82%, while roasted and ground coffee exports had a high growth rate of 41.30% [39][42]. - **Global Coffee Export Structure**: The top nine coffee - exporting countries were Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, etc. South America's export volume increased, Asia's growth was slow, Africa's growth rate was high at 6.02%, and the EU's export volume increased with a compound annual growth rate of 8.77% [44][46][51]. Import - **Global Coffee Import Overview**: From 2016/17 to 2025/2026, global coffee import volume increased from 774.798 million tons to 841.698 million tons, with a compound annual growth rate of 0.92%. Bean imports dominated, accounting for an average of 84%, and roasted and ground coffee imports had high growth elasticity [52][55]. - **Global Coffee Import Structure**: Asia and other emerging markets were the main growth sources for bean imports. North America's imports declined, while Europe remained relatively stable. China's imports increased significantly, with a compound annual growth rate of 8.71% [56][59][61]. Inventory - **Global Coffee End - of - Period Inventory Structure and Trend**: From 2016/17 to 2025/2026, global end - of - period coffee inventory decreased from 218.718 million tons to 136.914 million tons, with a compound annual growth rate of - 5.07%. The inventory was mainly concentrated in major consumer countries such as the EU, the US, and Japan [63]. - **Inventory Structure of Each Country**: The EU, the US, and Japan all saw inventory declines. Brazil's inventory fluctuated greatly. Vietnam's inventory decreased, while Indonesia and Mexico's inventories increased [66][67][71].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for both the apple and红枣 industries is neutral [4][8] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For the apple industry, although the sales space is suppressed by low - price alternative fruits, the price is relatively firm due to factors such as accelerated cold - storage outbound speed, lower excellent fruit rate, and increased acquisition price. The focus is on the actual demand during the Spring Festival [3][4] - For the红枣 industry, the supply pressure remains as new and old jujube inventories are superimposed. The traditional peak season may drive the shipment speed, and attention should be paid to the merchants' stocking progress and actual shipment speed [7][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2605 contract yesterday was 9934 yuan/ton, up 155 yuan/ton or 1.59% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of Shandong Qixia 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji was 4.10 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Shaanxi Luochuan over 70 semi - commercial late Fuji was 4.20 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1] Recent Market Information - In the production areas, the number of merchants has increased slightly, the transaction atmosphere has improved slightly, but the volume of fruit farmers' goods is still limited, mainly low - price goods. The sales areas have slow shipment, and the sales space is squeezed by alternative fruits. It is expected that the Spring Festival stocking will increase this week, and the price of high - quality goods will remain stable [2] Market Analysis - Yesterday, the apple futures price fluctuated strongly, but the overall transaction in the production areas was light. The supply is mainly from Gansu and Liaoning, and the prices of medium - and low - grade goods are loose. The cold - storage inventory is at a low level, and the de - stocking speed has accelerated last week [3] Strategy - Neutral. The cold - storage outbound speed has accelerated this week, and although the sales space is suppressed, the price is firm. Attention should be paid to the actual Spring Festival demand [4] Red Dates Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the red dates 2605 contract yesterday was 9130 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton or 0.77% from the previous day [6] - Spot: The price of first - grade gray dates in Hebei was 8.20 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [6] Recent Market Information - The acquisition in Xinjiang production areas has basically ended, and the prices are stable. In the Hebei and Guangdong markets, the shipment has improved, and the downstream purchase enthusiasm has increased [6] Market Analysis - Yesterday, the red dates futures price fluctuated upward. The acquisition has ended, and the market focus has shifted to consumption. The new and old jujubes are circulating, and the supply pressure is obvious. The traditional peak season may bring a shipment peak, and attention should be paid to the actual shipment speed and channel de - stocking [7] Strategy - Neutral. The acquisition in the production areas has basically ended. Although the 2025 production season output has decreased, the inventory is sufficient. The traditional peak season may drive the shipment speed, and attention should be paid to the stocking progress and actual shipment speed [8]