甲醇日报 | 2025-09-30 西北价格仍偏强 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤475元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润670元/吨（+5）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线2095元/吨（+5），内蒙北线基差336元/吨（+1），内蒙南线2100元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2365元/吨（+0），鲁 南基差206元/吨（-4）；河南2210元/吨（-15），河南基差51元/吨（+1）；河北2245元/吨（+0），河北基差146元/吨（-4）。 隆众内地工厂库存319940吨（-20540），西北工厂库存208000吨（-17500）；隆众内地工厂待发订单273022吨（+39246）， 西北工厂待发订单154000吨（+38300）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2253元/吨（-7），太仓基差-106元/吨（-1），CFR中国261美元/吨（-1），华东进口价差-35元/ 吨（+6），常州甲醇2465元/吨；广东甲醇2265元/吨（+0），广东基差-94元/吨（+6）。隆众港口总库存1492190吨（-65580）， 江苏港口库存779000吨（-8000），浙江港口库存253700吨 ...

Report Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The valuation of the October contract is becoming clearer, and attention should be paid to the actual cargo - booking prices in the second half of the month after the holiday. The settlement price of the October contract is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on October 13th, 20th, and 27th. There is uncertainty about the actual implementation of price increases in the second half of October [4]. - The December contract is still far from delivery, and trading mainly focuses on the rhythm. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of price increases in November. There are risks such as the bottom of the current freight rate decline and weak demand on the US route. The trading rhythm involves first trading the price - increase expectation, then the actual implementation of the price - increase notice, and repeating this process until delivery [6]. - The strategy suggests going short on the 10 - contract on rallies and expecting the 12 - contract to be oscillating strongly. There is currently no arbitrage strategy [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Online Quotations**: Different shipping companies have different price quotations and price - increase notices. For example, Maersk's WEEK42 quotation for Shanghai - Rotterdam has risen to 1800 US dollars/FEU, HPL - SPOT's price in the second half of October is 600 US dollars/FEU higher than that in the first half, and MSC has issued a price - increase notice for the second half of October [1]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: US President Trump announced a 20 - point plan to end the conflict between Israel and Hamas. If both sides accept, the two - year conflict will end immediately, and Israel will withdraw troops in stages [2]. - **Container Ship Capacity**: In October, the monthly average weekly capacity to European basic ports from China is 263,900 TEU, with 17 blank sailings. In November, the monthly average weekly capacity is 304,000 TEU, with 3 blank sailings and 3 TBNs [3]. 2. Futures Contracts - **October Contract**: The central value of the freight rate in the first half of October has continued to decline to around 1400 US dollars/FEU. The SCFIS on October 13th is expected to be around 1000 points, and the SCFIS on October 20th is estimated to be similar. The uncertainty lies in the actual implementation of price increases in the second half of October. Optimistically, if the settlement price in the last week increases by 500 US dollars/FEU, the final three - phase settlement price corresponds to a spot price of approximately 1400/1500/1900 US dollars/FEU, equivalent to about 1150 - 1200 points on the SCFIS; if the price - support fails, the final settlement price may be between 1000 - 1050 points [4][5]. - **December Contract**: With the approach of Western holidays in the fourth quarter, shipping volume remains high, and shipping companies will adjust supply to keep freight rates high. However, there are risks such as weak US demand. The trading rhythm first involves the price - increase expectation and then the actual implementation of the price - increase notice [6]. 3. Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: As of September 29, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index for the European route is 69,419 lots, and the daily trading volume is 33,930 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are provided, such as EC2602 at 1667.00, EC2604 at 1253.00, etc. [7]. - **Spot Prices**: On September 26, 2025, the SCFI for Shanghai - Europe is 971 US dollars/TEU, for Shanghai - US West is 1460 US dollars/FEU, and for Shanghai - US East is 22385 US dollars/FEU. On September 15, 2025, the SCFIS for Shanghai - Europe is 1120.49 points, and for Shanghai - US West is 921.25 points [7]. 4. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a major year for container ship deliveries. As of September 28, 2025, 201 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.6 million TEU. Among them, 63 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 948,300 TEU, and 8 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 176,880 TEU [7]. 5. Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: Go short on the 10 - contract on rallies and expect the 12 - contract to be oscillating strongly [8]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: There is currently no arbitrage strategy [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage strategy for SHFE aluminum: Long the near - term contract and short the far - term contract [9] Group 2: Core Views - The macro environment at home and abroad remains positive. The domestic 15th Five - Year Plan meeting may implement new policy financial tools, while overseas policies are still hawkish overall. There is no need to be pessimistic about aluminum prices, and consumption in the fourth quarter at home and abroad is expected to be positive [6]. - For electrolytic aluminum, pre - holiday restocking has led to a continuous decline in social inventory. The supply is basically stable, and domestic consumption is steadily recovering. Although the social inventory situation is mediocre, the absolute value is still relatively low, which is not likely to cause a negative impact [6]. - For alumina, the supply is still in surplus, and the opening of the import window has exacerbated the domestic surplus situation. The social inventory is rapidly accumulating. The cost side is in a state of game, and policy disturbances in Guinea in the next two months need to be vigilant. Although the current price is close to the marginal high - cash cost and facing losses, the downside space is limited under the low - valuation background [6][7]. - For aluminum alloy, downstream consumption is recovering, but the supply is still in surplus, and the overall social inventory is relatively high. The absolute price is subject to many macro disturbances, which is not conducive to the seasonal convergence of the price difference with aluminum ingots [8]. Group 3: Summary Based on Relevant Data Aluminum Spot - On September 29, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 20,690 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium was - 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central Plains A00 aluminum was 20,750 yuan/ton, and the spot premium was 50 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 20,610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium was - 85 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. Aluminum Futures - On September 29, 2025, the main contract of SHFE aluminum opened at 20,755 yuan/ton, closed at 20,730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 20,770 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 20,660 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 132,925 lots, and the open interest was 203,858 lots [2]. Inventory - As of September 29, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 592,000 tons, a decrease of 2.5 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory was 59,747 tons, a decrease of 3,483 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 515,600 tons, a decrease of 2,100 tons from the previous trading day [2]. - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 72,000 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 58,200 tons [4]. Alumina - On September 29, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,935 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,895 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,965 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,145 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,150 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 323 US dollars/ton [2]. - The main contract of alumina futures opened at 2,898 yuan/ton, closed at 2,904 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton or 0.41% from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price was 2,926 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,862 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 356,985 lots, and the open interest was 292,517 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy - On September 29, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 16,000 yuan/ton, and the procurement price of mechanical raw aluminum was 16,200 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,400 yuan/ton, also unchanged from the previous day [3]. - The theoretical total cost of aluminum alloy was 20,323 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 177 yuan/ton [5].

石油沥青日报 | 2025-09-30 整体交投氛围平淡，盘面窄幅上行 市场分析 1、9月29日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2511合约下午收盘价3466元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨15元/吨，涨幅 0.43%；持仓132865手，环比下降25763手，成交152121手，环比下降57958手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3756—4086元/吨；山东，3450—3720元/吨；华南，3500—3550元/吨； 华东，3510—3600元/吨。 昨日华北市场沥青现货价格维持小幅下跌趋势，华南以及川渝市场沥青现货价格持续上涨，其余地区沥青现货价 格均以持稳为主。就沥青自身基本面而言，当前市场供应相对充裕，需求表现偏弱，多数地区整体交投氛围平淡， 但南方局部地区终端项目存在赶工迹象，加之华南地区佛山部分库区发货不畅，驱动当地贸易商报价上调。考虑 到地缘局势的不确定性，国庆假期期间外盘油价可能出现大幅波动，并对节后BU盘面造成扰动，建议节前保持谨 慎。 策略 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-09-30 苹果稳中上行，红枣承压下跌 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2601合约8486元/吨，较前一日变动+85元/吨，幅度+1.01%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格3.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP01-886，较前一日变动-85；陕西洛川70# 以上 半商品晚富士价格4.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP01+1114，较前一日变动-85。 近期市场资讯，新季晚富士大面积脱袋、上色中，西部采青富士继续交易，客商拿货积极性尚可。山东产区库存 老富士走货一般，红将军逐渐收尾，奶油富士陆续交易。陕西延安洛川产区采青富士目前70#以上市场主流价格 4.0-4.4元/斤附近 ，秦脆70#以上主流4.8-5.2元/斤。山东栖霞华硕主流参考价2.5-2.8元/斤。奶油富士80#起步主流参 考价1.8元/斤左右。库存老富士果农通货1.6-3元/斤，80#一二级片红3.0-4.2元/斤，80#一二级条纹3.5-4.5元/斤。 市场分析 苹果期价昨日小幅上涨，现货端山东、陕西主流果价格持稳，客商拿货积极性一般，新季 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways to bearish [2] - Iron ore: Sideways to bearish [5] - Coking coal: Sideways [8] - Coke: Sideways [8] - Thermal coal: No strategy provided [10] Core Views - The steel market sentiment is weak, and steel prices are oscillating downward. The inventory pressure will increase after the pre - holiday restocking ends, and supply control is needed later [1]. - Iron ore shipments have slightly rebounded, and the price is oscillating downward. It shows a situation of strong supply and demand in the short term, and the price will remain range - bound [3][4]. - The double - coking market has strong risk - aversion sentiment and is oscillating. The supply of coking coal is relatively loose, while the demand for coke remains resilient [6][8]. - The thermal coal market has intensified wait - and - see sentiment, and the coal price in the production area is running weakly. The price will be under pressure in the short term [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The rebar futures contract closed at 3097 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3289 yuan/ton. The national urban inventory of building materials was 491.96 million tons, a 5.10% week - on - week decrease; the national urban inventory of hot - rolled coils was 221.74 million tons, a 1.27% week - on - week decrease [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The domestic macro - policy is in a wait - and - see period. Steel inventory has been accumulating, weaker than seasonal performance. After the pre - holiday restocking, the inventory pressure of finished products will increase. Attention should be paid to steel consumption after the National Day holiday, and supply suppression is needed to relieve the inventory pressure [1]. - **Strategy**: Sideways to bearish for the single - side strategy, and no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The iron ore futures price oscillated downward. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties fluctuated slightly. The total cumulative transaction volume of iron ore at major ports in the country was 584,000 tons, a 46.00% week - on - week increase; the cumulative transaction volume of forward spot was 1.1 million tons, a 110% week - on - week increase. The global iron ore shipments decreased significantly this period, with a total shipment volume of 347.54 million tons, a 4.5% week - on - week increase; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 236.05 million tons, an 11.8% week - on - week decrease [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The iron ore shipments rebounded slightly this week, with strong shipment resilience. The arrival volume increased rapidly. The demand for iron ore is resilient as steel mills have good profits and no intention to cut production actively. The port inventory increased slightly, and the floating inventory decreased. The steel mill's iron ore inventory increased seasonally and is at a high level in the same period. The overall valuation of iron ore is high, and the supply is relatively loose at high prices. The price will remain range - bound in the short term, and attention should be paid to downstream demand and coal price changes [4]. - **Strategy**: Sideways to bearish for the single - side strategy, and no strategies for other aspects [5]. Double - Coking (Coking Coal and Coke) - **Market Analysis**: The double - coking futures oscillated weakly throughout the day. The main contracts of coking coal and coke both fell, with declines of 4.98% and 4.16% respectively. The price of imported coal fell with the disk, and the trading volume decreased compared with the previous week [8]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: As the holiday approaches, speculative demand has declined, and some funds have strong risk - aversion sentiment. For coking coal, supply is relatively loose, and demand from downstream coking enterprises is mainly for rigid needs. For coke, the daily output has decreased, and downstream steel mills still have relatively high production enthusiasm, and the consumption demand is resilient [8]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for both coking coal and coke, and no strategies for cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, and options [8]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production area, the market is running weakly as the holiday approaches. The prices of most coal mines are under pressure to decline. In the port area, the market sentiment is average, and the transaction price has slightly decreased. The price of imported coal is stable, and the trading activity has decreased [9]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: As the double - festival holiday approaches, the wait - and - see sentiment in the market has intensified. The price will oscillate in the short term, and the supply is expected to remain loose in the long term. Attention should be paid to the consumption and restocking of non - power coal [9]. - **Strategy**: No strategy provided [10]

Group 1: Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 0.17% at 2,919 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.29% at 3,480 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil prices have rebounded recently, but the expectation of a looser medium-term balance sheet is suppressing the market. Considering the unclear geopolitical situation, oil prices may fluctuate significantly during the National Day holiday [1] - In terms of the fundamentals of fuel oil itself, the market structure of high-sulfur fuel oil has strengthened marginally, and the reduction in the number of registered futures warehouse receipts has also provided additional support for the FU futures structure. However, based on the current valuation level and supply-demand situation, the upward driving force of the high-sulfur fuel oil market is still limited and requires new variables [1] - For low-sulfur fuel oil, the recent shutdown of RFCC units at the Dangote and Pengerang refineries has led to an increase in local low-sulfur fuel oil supply, suppressing the crack spread and monthly spread structure. However, domestic production remains at a medium to low level, and the strong premium of gasoline and diesel has diverted low-sulfur oil components. Overall, the supply pressure is relatively limited. In the medium term, the trend of substitution of low-sulfur marine fuel demand share has not reversed, and there is still significant resistance above the market [1] Group 2: Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral in the short term and bearish in the medium term [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral in the short term and bearish in the medium term [2] - Cross-variety: No strategy [2] - Cross-period: Go long on the FU2511 - 2512 spread on dips [2] - Spot-futures: No strategy [2] - Options: No strategy [2] Group 3: Figures - Figures include Singapore high-sulfur 380 fuel oil spot price, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil spot price, Singapore high-sulfur fuel oil swap near-month contract, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil swap near-month contract, Singapore high-sulfur fuel oil near-month spread, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil near-month spread, fuel oil FU futures main contract closing price, fuel oil FU futures index closing price, fuel oil FU futures near-month contract closing price, fuel oil FU near-month contract monthly spread, fuel oil FU futures main contract trading volume and open interest, fuel oil FU futures total trading volume and open interest, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures main contract closing price, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures index closing price, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures near-month contract price, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures near-month spread, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures main contract trading volume and open interest, and low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures total trading volume and open interest [3]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-30 临近月末及长假 现货成交活跃度料相对较低 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-09-29，沪铜主力合约开于 82270元/吨，收于 82370元/吨，较前一交易日收盘-0.12%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合 约开于 73,810元/吨，收于 74,060 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.47%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日电解铜现货维持贴水格局，SMM1#铜均价82010-82410元/吨，主力合约贴水5元/吨（持平）。沪 铜早盘震荡于82030-82440元/吨区间，进口亏损收窄至700元/吨以内。受国庆假期及季末因素影响，市场采销情绪 降温，高铜价持续抑制下游采购。平水铜从贴水40元/吨降至贴水60元/吨后反弹至贴水50元/吨成交，湿法铜贴水 100-80元/吨，非注册货源贴水200-160元/吨。预计月末交易活跃度进一步下降，现货升贴水重心或小幅上移。 重要资讯汇总： 利率方面，美联储威廉姆斯称劳动力市场疲软迹象让其在上次会议上支持降息，对实际中性利率的估计是0.75%； 穆萨莱姆称对未来降息持开放态度，但认为需保持谨慎，预计通胀将在未来两到三个季度保持 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for RU and NR is neutral [7]. - The investment rating for BR is neutral [7]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For natural rubber, with the reduction of rainfall in domestic and overseas production areas, raw material prices are expected to decline, weakening cost - side support. As the domestic holiday approaches, downstream tire factories will enter a short - term maintenance period, and demand will decline. Overall, supply and demand are gradually becoming looser, and inventory depletion may slow down or even accumulate again. However, the current valuations of domestic RU and NR are low, and the downside space is limited after the news of a new round of state reserve sales is announced [7]. - For cis - butadiene rubber, upstream plants will still have maintenance in October, and the operating rate may first rise and then fall. The production volume will change little in the next two weeks. The overall operating rate this year is still at a high level compared to the same period last year, and the supply remains abundant. After the downstream raw material replenishment is completed, demand will remain stable. With the approaching of the National Day holiday, downstream tire factories will have a short - term shutdown and resume production after the holiday. It is expected that the downstream will continue to be in a peak season, and the supply and demand of cis - butadiene rubber will be booming [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - **Futures Prices**: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 15,375 yuan/ton, a change of - 95 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,430 yuan/ton, a change of - 5 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 11,340 yuan/ton, a change of - 90 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,550 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,800 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,850 US dollars/ton, a change of - 10 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,740 US dollars/ton, a change of - 10 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,500 yuan/ton, a change of - 200 yuan/ton. The market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,350 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton [1]. Market Information - **Import Data**: In August 2025, China imported 664,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a month - on - month increase of 4.73% and a year - on - year increase of 7.79%. From January to August 2025, China's cumulative imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) reached 5.373 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.06% [2]. - **Export Data**: In the first eight months of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 650,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%; the export value was 114.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 626,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%; the export value was 109.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. In terms of the number of tires, the export volume was 47.86 billion, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. From January to August, the export volume of automobile tires was 555,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%; the export value was 94.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% [2][3]. - **Côte d'Ivoire Export Data**: In the first eight months of 2025, the total rubber export volume of Côte d'Ivoire was 1.05 million tons, an increase of 14.4% compared to the same period in 2024. In August alone, the export volume increased by 14.8% year - on - year and decreased by 8.9% month - on - month [3]. - **Automobile Market Data**: In August 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 84,000 units (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy vehicles), a slight month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of about 35%. From January to August, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 708,000 units, a year - on - year increase of about 13%. From January to August, China's automobile production and sales reached 21.051 million and 21.128 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12.6% respectively. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 9.625 million and 9.62 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 37.3% and 36.7% respectively, and the sales volume of new energy vehicles accounted for 45.5% of the total sales volume of new vehicles. In terms of exports, from January to August, automobile exports reached 4.292 million units, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. Among them, new energy vehicle exports reached 1.532 million units, a year - on - year increase of 87.3% [4]. Market Analysis Natural Rubber - **Spot and Spreads**: On September 29, 2025, the RU basis was - 825 yuan/ton (- 5), the spread between the RU main contract and the mixed rubber was 575 yuan/ton (- 45), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,258 yuan/ton (- 33.81), the NR basis was 721.00 yuan/ton (- 78.00); the price of whole latex was 14,550 yuan/ton (- 100), the price of mixed rubber was 14,800 yuan/ton (- 50), the price of 3L spot was 15,200 yuan/ton (+ 0). The STR20 was quoted at 1,850 US dollars/ton (- 10), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 650 yuan/ton (- 100); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,000 yuan/ton (+ 250) [4]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 58.61 Thai baht/kg (- 0.27), the price of Thai glue was 54.80 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.00), the price of Thai cup lump was 50.55 Thai baht/kg (- 0.50), and the difference between Thai glue and cup lump was 4.25 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.50) [5]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 66.39% (+ 0.03%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.64% (- 0.10%) [6]. - **Inventories**: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,112,557 tons (- 122,953.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 461,188 tons (- 125,451), the RU futures inventory was 149,420 tons (- 5,500), and the NR futures inventory was 42,942 tons (- 1,611) [6]. Cis - Butadiene Rubber - **Spot and Spreads**: On September 29, 2025, the BR basis was - 40 yuan/ton (+ 40), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,000 yuan/ton (- 150), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,500 yuan/ton (- 200), the price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,350 yuan/ton (- 50), the price of private cis - butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,200 yuan/ton (- 50), and the import profit of cis - butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,749 yuan/ton (- 50) [6]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 66.41% (- 3.31%) [6]. - **Inventories**: The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber traders was 5,700 tons (- 2,120), and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,600 tons (+ 700) [6]. Strategy - **RU and NR**: Maintain a neutral rating. With the reduction of rainfall in domestic and overseas production areas, raw material prices are expected to decline, weakening cost - side support. As the domestic holiday approaches, downstream tire factories will enter a short - term maintenance period, and demand will decline. Overall, supply and demand are gradually becoming looser, and inventory depletion may slow down or even accumulate again. However, the current valuations of domestic RU and NR are low, and the downside space is limited after the news of a new round of state reserve sales is announced [7]. - **BR**: Maintain a neutral rating. Upstream plants will still have maintenance in October, and the operating rate may first rise and then fall. The production volume will change little in the next two weeks. The overall operating rate this year is still at a high level compared to the same period last year, and the supply remains abundant. After the downstream raw material replenishment is completed, demand will remain stable. With the approaching of the National Day holiday, downstream tire factories will have a short - term shutdown and resume production after the holiday. It is expected that the downstream will continue to be in a peak season, and the supply and demand of cis - butadiene rubber will be booming [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the soybean meal and rapeseed meal sector is neutral [3] - The investment rating for the corn sector is cautiously bearish [5] 2. Core Views - For the soybean meal and rapeseed meal sector, the current new - season US soybeans are being harvested with a slight decline in the good - to - excellent rate and a decrease in planting area, leading to an expected reduction in overall output. However, due to the unclear outcome of Sino - US trade negotiations and China's reduced imports of US soybeans, the export progress of new - season US soybeans is slow, putting pressure on CBOT US soybean prices. Argentina's policy change may intensify export competition between North and South America, further impacting US soybean exports. As a result, both CBOT US soybeans and domestic soybean oil and meal prices are under pressure [2] - For the corn sector, in the domestic market, new - season corn in the Northeast and North China regions is continuously coming onto the market. The purchase price of new - season corn in the Northeast is declining, while in North China, the harvest progress is slowed by weather, and prices have slightly increased due to low inventories in deep - processing enterprises. As the supply increases in the future, traders are pessimistic about the market outlook and have a low willingness to store grain. The demand from deep - processing enterprises is low, and feed enterprises have relatively little inventory, mainly replenishing stocks as needed. Attention should be paid to downstream procurement attitudes and the volume of new - grain supply [4] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market News and Important Data for Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Futures**: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 2933 yuan/ton, a change of - 4 yuan/ton or - 0.14% from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2416 yuan/ton, a change of + 11 yuan/ton or + 0.46% [1] - **Spot**: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2970 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of M01 + 37, a change of + 4; in Jiangsu, it was 2880 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of M01 - 53, a change of + 4; in Guangdong, it was 2900 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of M01 - 33, a change of + 4. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2580 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of RM01 + 164, a change of - 11 [1] - **Market Information**: As of Friday, the soybean sowing progress in Mato Grosso, Brazil, for the 2025/26 season reached 5.97%, much faster than the same period last year. For the week ending September 18, US soybean export sales net increased by 72.45 tons, with a market forecast of a net increase of 60 - 160 tons [1] 3.2. Market Analysis for Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - The new - season US soybean harvest is underway, with a slight decline in the good - to - excellent rate and a decrease in planting area, resulting in an expected reduction in overall output. Uncertain Sino - US trade policies and China's reduced imports slow down US soybean exports, pressuring CBOT US soybean prices. Argentina's policy change may intensify export competition and impact US soybean exports. CBOT US soybeans and domestic soybean oil and meal prices are under pressure, and attention should be paid to China's imports from Argentina and Sino - US trade negotiations [2] 3.3. Market News and Important Data for Corn - **Futures**: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2159 yuan/ton, a change of - 19 yuan/ton or - 0.87% from the previous day; the corn starch 2511 contract was 2483 yuan/ton, a change of + 3 yuan/ton or + 0.12% [3] - **Spot**: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of C11 + 141, a change of + 19; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2570 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of CS11 + 87, a change of - 3 [3] - **Market Information**: The EU Commission's monthly report shows that the EU's corn production forecast for the 2025/26 season is lowered by 80 tons to 5680 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%, far lower than the initial forecast of 6500 tons. Due to the continuous drought in Southeast Europe in the summer of 2025, the corn yield per hectare is expected to be 6.88 tons, 1% lower than last month's forecast and 3% lower than the five - year average [3] 3.4. Market Analysis for Corn - **Supply**: New - season corn in the Northeast and North China regions is continuously coming onto the market. The purchase price of new - season corn in the Northeast is declining, while in North China, the harvest progress is slowed by weather, and prices have slightly increased due to low inventories in deep - processing enterprises. As the supply increases in the future, traders are pessimistic about the market outlook and have a low willingness to store grain [4] - **Demand**: The demand from deep - processing enterprises is low, and feed enterprises have relatively little inventory, mainly replenishing stocks as needed. Attention should be paid to downstream procurement attitudes and the volume of new - grain supply [4]