新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-17 现货成交一般，碳酸锂受近月交割博弈影响 市场分析 2025年7月16日，碳酸锂主力合约2509开于67300元/吨，收于66420元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价上涨1.15%。当 日成交量为478114手，持仓量为340618手，较前一交易日减少1528手，根据SMM现货报价，目前期货升水电碳1470 元/吨。所有合约总持仓619618手，较前一交易日减少3318手。当日合约总成交量较前一交易日减少354227手，成 交量减少，整体投机度为0.92 。当日碳酸锂仓单10655手，较上个交易日减少548手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，2025年7月16日电池级碳酸锂报价6.39-6.6万元/吨，较前一交易日上涨0.005万元/吨， 工业级碳酸锂报价6.285-6.385万元/吨，较前一交易日上涨0.005万元/吨。 库存方面：根据SMM最新统计数据，现货库存为14.08 万吨，其中冶炼厂库存为5.86 万吨，下游库存为4.08 万吨， 其他库存为4.14 万吨。据SMM数据，受长协订单覆盖及客供比例较高等因素影响，下游企业对现行市场价格接受 度较低，采购需求持续 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways [1][2] - Iron Ore: Sideways [3][4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Sideways with a Downward Bias [5][6] - Thermal Coal: Sideways with an Upward Bias in the Short Term, Supply Remains Loose in the Medium to Long Term [7] Core Views - Steel: Short - term positive factors are exhausted, and the steel market will maintain a sideways trend. The demand for steel still has resilience, and the fundamentals provide effective support [1]. - Iron Ore: The fundamentals provide strong support, and the iron ore price will move up in a sideways manner. In the long run, the supply - demand situation is relatively loose [3]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Market sentiment has cooled, and the coking coal and coke market will move down in a sideways manner. The supply of coke is tight, and the demand from downstream steel enterprises remains resilient [5][6]. - Thermal Coal: As the temperature rises in July, the daily consumption is increasing, and the downstream demand is strengthening. The coal price will move up in a sideways manner in the short term, while the supply remains loose in the medium to long term [7]. Market Analysis Steel - Futures and Spot: Steel futures declined slightly yesterday. The spot price was relatively firm, and the overall basis continued to widen. The spot transaction volume was 8740 tons. In early July, the average daily output of crude steel by key steel enterprises was 2.097 million tons, a 1.5% decrease from the previous period. The steel inventory was 15.07 million tons, a 2.4% decrease from the previous period. The average cost of billet in Tangshan was 2775 yuan/ton, with an average profit of 175 yuan/ton [1]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: This week's data shows that the output of building materials increased, consumption decreased, and inventory increased; the production and sales of hot - rolled coils increased, and inventory decreased. The demand for steel still has resilience, and attention should be paid to basis repair, policy implementation, overseas tariffs, and hedging funds [1]. Iron Ore - Futures and Spot: Iron ore futures prices trended slightly upwards yesterday. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties rose slightly. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and steel mills mainly replenished their stocks as needed. The total transaction volume of iron ore at major ports was 1 million tons, a 1.48% decrease from the previous day; the total transaction volume of forward - delivery spot was 1.52 million tons, a 6.81% decrease from the previous day [3]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: Although the molten iron output has declined, it is still at a relatively high level. The consumption of iron ore shows good resilience. In the long run, the supply - demand situation is relatively loose. Attention should be paid to the consumption intensity of steel during the off - season and the changes in iron ore inventory [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - Futures and Spot: The futures prices of coking coal and coke trended downwards yesterday. The inventory of imported coal at ports was tight, and traders continued to hold up prices. Attention should be paid to port customs clearance and supply recovery [5]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: For coke, on the one hand, the price of raw coal remains high, and after the price increase is implemented, the profit of coke enterprises will improve, but the production willingness is still relatively conservative, and the supply remains tight; on the other hand, the profit of downstream steel enterprises is good, and the plant inventory is running at a low level, so the demand remains resilient. For coking coal, the market trading atmosphere is relatively active, and the downstream demand is stable. The supply is gradually recovering, but the overall recovery is limited. Attention should be paid to the coal mine recovery progress and the molten iron output of downstream steel mills during the traditional off - season [5][6]. Thermal Coal - Futures and Spot: In the production areas, some coal mines stopped production due to water accumulation and safety inspections, and mine owners were more willing to raise prices, with some coal varieties rising by 5 - 10 yuan. At ports, the upstream shipping cost increased, there was a structural shortage at ports, and the downstream rigid - demand procurement was completed stage by stage. As the high - temperature range expanded, the daily consumption increased, and traders were optimistic about the peak - season market, so the market coal price increased steadily. For imports, the price of high - calorie Australian coal was inverted compared with the domestic winning bid price, with low liquidity. The low - calorie Indonesian coal had obvious cost - performance advantages, and there were many downstream tenders [7]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: In July, as the temperature rises, the daily consumption is increasing, and the downstream demand is strengthening. The coal price will move up in a sideways manner in the short term. In the medium to long term, the supply remains loose. Attention should be paid to the consumption and inventory replenishment of non - power coal [7]. Strategies Steel - Unilateral: Sideways - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: None - Futures - Spot: None - Options: None [2] Iron Ore - Unilateral: Sideways - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: None - Futures - Spot: None - Options: None [4] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking Coal: Sideways - Coke: Sideways - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: None - Futures - Spot: None - Options: None [6] Thermal Coal - No specific strategy information provided

氯碱日报 | 2025-07-17 PVC回归基本面，盘面偏弱震荡 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4934元/吨（-41）；华东基差-84元/吨（+31）;华南基差-94元/吨（-9）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4850元/吨（-10）；华南电石法报价4840元/吨（-50）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格535元/吨（+0）；电石价格2825元/吨（+0）；电石利润107元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-445元/吨（+107）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-621元/吨（+74）；PVC出口利润-12.0美元/吨（+0.4）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存38.2万吨（-0.5）；PVC社会库存39.3万吨（+2.0）；PVC电石法开工率76.93%（-3.80%）； PVC乙烯法开工率70.23%（+4.77%）；PVC开工率75.07%（-1.43%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量69.0万吨（+3.2）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2466元/吨（-46）；山东32%液碱基差159元/吨（+46）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价840元/吨（+0）；山东50 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: 09 - 01 reverse spread; Cross - variety: Short coal - based profit [3] Core View - International crude oil prices are continuously declining with further decline expected, weakening the cost support for polyolefins. Upstream petrochemical plants' devices are restarting, increasing supply, while downstream demand remains in the off - season, resulting in a loose supply - demand balance [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - Analyzed the trends of plastic and polypropylene futures' main contracts and the basis between LL East China and the main contract, as well as PP East China and the main contract [1][8][11] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate is 77.8% (-1.7%), PP operating rate is 76.6% (-0.8%). PE oil - based production profit is 167.1 yuan/ton (-5.0), PP oil - based production profit is -222.9 yuan/ton (-5.0), and PDH - based PP production profit is 245.0 yuan/ton (+52.5) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Compared the price differences between HD injection molding - LL East China, HD blow molding - LL East China, etc. [32][40][41] 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - LL import profit is -177.5 yuan/ton (-44.5), PP import profit is -672.8 yuan/ton (-24.7), and PP export profit is 34.2 US dollars/ton (+3.0) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 12.6% (+0.5%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 48.1% (-0.4%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 42.0% (-0.2%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.6% (+0.3%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Analyzed the inventories of PE and PP in oil - based enterprises, coal - chemical enterprises, traders, and ports [73][78][88]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is currently in a narrow - range fluctuation. Crude oil prices have retreated, weakening cost support for asphalt but without forming an obvious trend. The overall supply - demand situation of asphalt remains weak with low inventory and relatively few market contradictions. There are growth expectations on both the supply and demand sides, and attention should be paid to inventory trends. A continuous increase in inventory from a low level may suppress market sentiment. The strategy for asphalt is a "sideways" outlook for the single - sided position, and there are no specific strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [1][2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On July 16, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2509 in the afternoon session was 3,623 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton or 0.22% from the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 225,480 lots, a decrease of 1,357 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 108,223 lots, a decrease of 66,085 lots [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast 3,900 - 4,086 yuan/ton; Shandong 3,660 - 4,070 yuan/ton; South China 3,600 - 3,630 yuan/ton; East China 3,660 - 3,800 yuan/ton. The asphalt spot price in the South China market decreased slightly yesterday, while prices in other regions remained stable [1]. Strategy - Single - sided: Sideways - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [2] Figures - The report includes figures on various aspects of the asphalt market, such as spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, and Northwest), futures prices (index, main contract, near - month contract, near - month spread), trading volume and open interest (single - sided and main contract), production (domestic weekly, independent refineries, Shandong, East China, South China, North China), consumption (road, waterproofing, coking, shipping fuel), and inventory (refinery and social inventory) [3]

纯苯苯乙烯日报 | 2025-07-17 EB基差进一步走弱 纯苯与苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯主力基差-206元/吨（-32）。纯苯港口库存16.40万吨（-1.00万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费157美元/吨 （+9美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加工费140美元/吨（+10美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差153.1美元/吨（+6.0美元/吨）。华东 纯苯现货-M2价差-90元/吨（-35元/吨）。 纯苯下游方面：己内酰胺生产利润-1860元/吨（+35），酚酮生产利润-667元/吨（-37），苯胺生产利润-171元/吨（-305）， 己二酸生产利润-1414元/吨（+9）。己内酰胺开工率95.72%（+0.00%），苯酚开工率81.00%（+3.00%），苯胺开工率 70.90%（+1.66%），己二酸开工率65.70%（+1.40%）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差177元/吨（+2元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润33元/吨（+10元/吨），预期逐步压缩。 苯乙烯华东港口库存138500吨（+27000吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存45000吨（+6000吨），处于库存回建阶段。苯乙 烯开工率79.2%（- ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, due to lower-than-usual southwest开工 and fewer furnace startups by large northwest manufacturers, the short - term supply - demand pattern has improved. However, after the futures price rebounded, traders faced difficulties in selling, and spot liquidity decreased. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and short - sellers should pay attention to stop - losses or use options for protection. For polysilicon, in the short term, it is suitable to buy on dips. In the long - term, considering the expected policy introduction, polysilicon is suitable for long - term long - position layout [2][6][7] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On July 16, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price dropped slightly. The main contract 2509 opened at 8740 yuan/ton and closed at 8685 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton (-0.91%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2509 was 379,848 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,215 lots, a decrease of 43 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon rose slightly. The downstream's acceptance of the price decreased, and the market's inquiry and trading volume declined. The organic silicon DMC price remained stable, some enterprises' prices rose slightly, pre - sales were good, inventory pressure decreased, and market trading was active [1] Polysilicon - On July 16, 2025, the polysilicon futures main contract 2508 continued to rise, opening at 42,360 yuan/ton and closing at 42,945 yuan/ton, a 1.50% increase from the previous day. The position of the main contract was 71,783 lots (69,821 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 449,860 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased slightly, while the silicon wafer inventory decreased. The weekly polysilicon production was 22,800 tons, a 5.00% decrease, and the silicon wafer production was 11.50 GW, a 3.37% decrease [3] Silicon Wafers, Battery Cells, and Components - Silicon wafers: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.00 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.35 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R was 1.15 yuan/piece. Battery cells: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 was 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 was 0.24 yuan/W, Topcon G12 was 0.26 yuan/W, Topcon210RN was 0.26 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 yuan/W. Components: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.68 yuan/W [5] Strategies Industrial Silicon - Short - term: Wait and see [2] Polysilicon - Short - term: Buy on dips [7] Others - No strategies for inter - delivery, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [4][7] Factors to Monitor - Northwest and southwest resumption of production and new capacity commissioning; polysilicon enterprise operation changes; policy disturbances; macro and capital sentiment; organic silicon enterprise operation conditions; industry self - regulation's impact on upstream and downstream operation; futures listing's impact on the spot market; capital sentiment; policy disturbances [4][7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - RU is rated neutral, NR is rated neutral, and BR is rated neutral [4][5] 2. Core Views of the Report - The recent warming macro - atmosphere has made futures prices stronger, and the basis of natural rubber has weakened slightly. The improvement of domestic concentrated latex import profit and the resumption of raw material output after the end of rain are expected to increase the output of domestic full - latex, but the demand for downstream products is weak, so the fundamentals of full - latex remain weak. The import pressure in China is expected to ease in July, and the supply - demand pattern corresponding to NR has improved slightly. However, due to the increase in global natural rubber supply and lackluster demand, the rebound space of rubber futures prices is limited [4][5] - The price of upstream raw material butadiene is expected to remain firm in the short term. The supply of butadiene in China has decreased slightly, and port inventory has continued to decline. The restart of downstream maintenance devices is beneficial to butadiene demand. Under the loss pattern of butadiene rubber, the strength of the raw material end is expected to drive butadiene rubber to continue to rebound. The supply of butadiene rubber is expected to increase next week, and tire demand has increased month - on - month, showing a pattern of double - increase in supply and demand. It is expected that butadiene rubber will follow the upstream butadiene raw material and run strongly this week [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 14,500 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan/ton from the previous day. The closing price of the NR main contract was 12,490 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced full - latex in the Shanghai market was 14,450 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,300 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,765 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,695 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] Market Information - In June 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 599,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 27.2%. In the first half of the year, the total imports were 4.075 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.1% [2] - In the first half of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber export volume totaled 751,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.8%. The export volume in June increased by 36.9% year - on - year and 13.3% month - on - month [2] - In June 2025, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.084 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 18.1% and a month - on - month increase of 7.6%. In the first half of the year, the cumulative retail sales of the passenger car market were 10.901 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.8% [2] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On July 16, 2025, the RU basis was - 50 yuan/ton (- 5), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 200 yuan/ton (- 15), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 5,784 yuan/ton (+ 61.45), the NR basis was 134.00 yuan/ton (+ 2.00); the price of full - latex was 14,450 yuan/ton (+ 100), the price of mixed rubber was 14,300 yuan/ton (+ 120), the price of 3L spot was 14,550 yuan/ton (unchanged); the price of STR20 was 1,765 US dollars/ton (+ 15), the spread between full - latex and 3L was - 100 yuan/ton (+ 100); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,300 yuan/ton (+ 120) [3] - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 65.65 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.36), the price of Thai latex was 54.30 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai cup lump was 48.35 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.15), the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 5.95 Thai baht/kg (- 0.15) [3] - Operating rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 61.11% (- 0.42%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 65.79% (+ 1.66%) [3] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,295,153 tons (+ 1,811.00), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 636,383 tons (+ 4,006), the RU futures inventory was 188,690 tons (- 160), and the NR futures inventory was 36,994 tons (+ 7,258) [3] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On July 16, 2025, the BR basis was - 75 yuan/ton (+ 10), the ex - factory price of butadiene of Sinopec was 9,300 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,500 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,300 yuan/ton (- 80), the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,067 yuan/ton (- 50) [3] - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 65.54% (- 1.44%) [3] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 6,600 tons (+ 330), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 25,650 tons (- 850) [3]

原油日报 | 2025-07-17 EIA美国商业原油库存环比下降 市场要闻与重要数据 1、\t纽约商品交易所8月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌14美分，收于每桶66.38美元，跌幅为0.21%；9月交货的伦 敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌19美分，收于每桶68.52美元，跌幅为0.28%。SC原油主力合约收跌0.00%，报517元/桶。 3、\t国家能源局消息，2025年7月16日，全国最大电力负荷继今年7月4日首创新高（14.65亿千瓦）、7月7日再创新 高（14.67亿千瓦）后再次刷新历史纪录，首次突破15亿千瓦，最大达到15.06亿千瓦，较去年最大负荷增加0.55亿 千瓦。本周全国电力负荷持续维持高位，迎峰度夏能源保供工作已进入关键时期。（来源：Bloomberg） 4、\t沙特采用了一种新的计量标准来报告6月原油产量，使其与配额要求相符。根据欧佩克最新月度报告，该国上 月的"市场供应量"为每日936万桶，而实际原油产量为每日975万桶。沙特改变了其供应报告方式，采用向市场的 供应量而非实际产量数据。若不做此调整，沙特6月的每日原油产量将超出其生产目标38.5万桶。（来源：Bloomberg） 5、\tEIA报 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] 2) Core Viewpoints - The crude oil price has been oscillating strongly since the OPEC meeting, and the unilateral prices of FU and LU are supported by the cost side. However, there is an expectation of a looser balance sheet in the medium - term crude oil market, which may limit the upside space of prices. The recent oil price decline has also led to a weaker market drive [1]. - The current market structure of high - sulfur fuel oil is weak, with spot discounts, monthly spreads, and crack spreads continuously declining. Although there are still structural support factors, the crack spreads need to further adjust to attract the return of refinery demand [1]. - The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil has been stable recently, supported by the strong performance of overseas diesel. The overall supply pressure is limited due to the significant year - on - year decline in domestic production in the first half of the year. However, the surplus production capacity is abundant, and the long - term carbon - neutral trend in the shipping industry will suppress the market [1]. - The current market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil is slightly stronger than that of high - sulfur fuel oil, and the high - low sulfur spread has been widening recently, but the structural contradiction has not completely reversed, and there is no room for a significant increase in the spread [2]. 3) Strategy Summary - High - sulfur: Maintain an oscillating trend [3] - Low - sulfur: Maintain an oscillating trend [3] - Cross - variety: Short the FU crack spread (FU - Brent or FU - SC) on rallies [3] - Cross - period: Gradually take profit on the previous FU reverse spread positions [3] - Spot - futures: No strategy [3] - Options: No strategy [3]