日期 2025 年 12 月 9 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 铁矿石日评 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：12月8日钢材、铁矿期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、%、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | RB2605 | 31 ...

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 12 月 9 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 美联储降息预期打压美元指数并推高贵金属的流动性溢价，与此同时市场继 续关注新任美联储主席提名人选对美联储货币政策倾向的潜在影响，短期内金价 易涨难跌，关注本周三美联储议息会议对 2026 年货币政策的指引；全球经济增长 前景改善，使得工业属性较强的银铂钯在广期所上市铂钯品种的情况下持续偏强 运行，但上周银铂钯价格初现松动迹象，建议投资者留意银铂钯价格短期飙升后 调整风险的释放。中短期内多空因素交织，我们判断伦敦黄金需要在 3880-4380 美 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: December 9, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core View - The Shanghai copper price hit a new record high. The spot price rose by 715 to 92,300. High copper prices have weakened downstream orders and pressured the premium. The spot premium fell by 40 to 130. The import loss in the two markets narrowed to around 1,000 yuan. The short - term high copper price suppresses demand, which may cause fluctuations in the upward trend of copper prices. However, due to the tight supply of mines and ingots in 2026 and green demand, the medium - term fundamentals of copper are strongly supported. Coupled with the loose policies of China and the US providing a bullish macro - environment, the medium - term outlook for copper prices is bullish [10] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai copper reached a new historical high. The spot price increased by 715 to 92,300. High copper prices led to a decrease in downstream orders, and the spot premium dropped by 40 to 130. The import loss in the two markets narrowed to around 1,000 yuan. The LME0 - 3 back structure narrowed to 23, and the Shanghai - London ratio remained at a low level. The Politburo meeting on China's economy set the tone for economic policies in 2026, with more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, which is beneficial to the copper market. This drove the copper price up again in the afternoon. This week, important Chinese data will be released, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting will be held on Thursday, with few expected surprises. In the short term, high copper prices will suppress demand, causing fluctuations in the upward trend of copper prices. But in the medium term, due to tight supply and green demand, and favorable macro - policies, copper prices are expected to rise [10] Group 5: Industry News - In November 2025, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates were 2.526 million tons, up from 2.45 million tons in October. From January to November, the cumulative imports were 27.614 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.0% [11] - In November 2025, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 427,000 tons, down from 440,000 tons in October. From January to November, the cumulative imports were 4.883 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7% [11] - Peru's Congress voted to extend a controversial permit for one year. Informal gold and copper miners with this permit can enjoy more relaxed operating requirements until the end of next year. The bill needs to be signed by the president to take effect and is opposed by the formal mining industry. The territorial conflict between small - scale and large - scale miners has affected several copper mines and projects [11]

Report Overview - Report Title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Report Date: December 9, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The SCFIS index has slightly rebounded this week, and shipping companies have announced price increases, boosting market sentiment. The possibility that Contract 02 is overvalued cannot be easily verified in the short - term, and the cost - effectiveness of short - selling is low. Attention should be paid to the possibility that the April contract in the off - season is overvalued due to the impact, and the positive spread trading opportunity between 02 and 04 should be noted [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot Market**: The SCFIS index has slightly rebounded this week, and major shipping companies such as Maersk, HPL, and Premier Alliance have announced price increases, which may boost the market's expectation of price increases before the Spring Festival. There may be an incentive game for the pre - Spring Festival shipping rush. It's hard to prove whether Contract 02 is overvalued in the short - term, and short - selling is not cost - effective. Attention should be paid to the possibility that the April contract in the off - season is overvalued, and the positive spread trading opportunity between 02 and 04 [8] 3.2 Industry News - **China's Export Container Shipping Market**: From December 1 to December 5, the market remained stable. The comprehensive index slightly declined due to different supply - demand fundamentals and price fluctuations in ocean routes. China's November official manufacturing PMI rose to 49.2, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing industry [9] - **European Routes**: The eurozone's October unemployment rate was 6.4%, slightly higher than the previous value, showing weak economic recovery momentum. Transport demand was relatively stable this week, and market freight rates slightly declined. On December 5, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was $1400/TEU, a 0.3% decrease from the previous period [9] - **Mediterranean Routes**: The market situation was basically in sync with European routes, with a slightly better supply - demand situation. The spot booking price slightly increased. On December 5, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports was $2300/TEU, a 3.0% increase from the previous period [9] - **North American Routes**: The US November ADP employment decreased by 32,000, and the ISM manufacturing PMI index dropped to 48.2, indicating poor economic recovery prospects. Transport demand growth was weak this week, and the spot booking price declined. On December 5, the freight rates from Shanghai Port to the US West and East basic ports were $1550/FEU and $2315/FEU respectively, down 5.0% and 4.7% from the previous period [10] - **Other News**: Maersk and Hapag - Lloyd announced PSS increases for some routes. There were also political and military news related to the Middle East and Israel, as well as news about Maersk's possible resumption of Red Sea - Suez Canal navigation and Israeli political events [10] 3.3 Data Overview - **Container Shipping Spot Prices** - **SCFIS Index**: On December 8, 2025, the SCFIS for European routes (basic ports) was 1509.1, up 25.45 (1.7%) from December 1; the SCFIS for US West routes (basic ports) was 960.51, up 11.74 (1.2%) from December 1 [12] - **Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures Market** - **Trading Data on December 8**: For different contracts such as EC2512, EC2602, etc., details of opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, price change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change are provided [6] - **Shipping - Related Data Charts** - Multiple charts are presented, including those related to container shipping spot prices, container shipping index (European routes) futures trends, European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, and Shanghai - Europe basic port freight rates [13][18][19][23]

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 9 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃、纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 ...

1. Report Information - Report Date: December 09, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Pig Daily Report [1] 2. Investment Rating - Not provided 3. Core Viewpoints - In the long - term, pig slaughter is expected to maintain a slight increase until the first half of next year. The high utilization rate of second - fattening pens and the increase in planned slaughter in December add pressure on supply before the Spring Festival [7]. - On the demand side, the utilization rate of pens is high, and second - fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see mode. There may still be a small amount of rolling replenishment demand in December. With the continuous cooling of the weather, cured meat and sausage production are increasing, and fresh meat sales and terminal consumption are rising, leading to an increase in slaughter volume [7]. - Overall, the spot market shows a situation of increasing supply and demand, but the weak enthusiasm of second - fattening entry provides weak support for prices, so the spot market may mainly fluctuate. The futures market is expected to face supply pressure due to factors such as concentrated second - fattening in October and continuous release of production capacity, with a medium - to - long - term weakening trend, but the frequency of bottom - range fluctuations may increase [7]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions Futures - On the 8th, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher and fluctuated upwards, closing with a positive line. The highest price was 11,440 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,105 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,385 yuan/ton, up 2.29% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 5,192 lots to 372,746 lots [6]. Spot - On the 8th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 11.27 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous day [6]. 4.2 Industry News - Not provided 4.3 Data Overview - In November, the actual slaughter volume of Yongyi sample enterprises was 26.49 million heads, with a completion rate of 99.36%. The planned slaughter volume in December is 27.72 million heads, a monthly increase of 4.64% and a daily average increase of 1.27% [13]. - As of the week of December 4, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was - 135.01 yuan/head, a decrease of 23.88 yuan/head from the previous week; the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was - 273 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 2 yuan/head [13]. - As of the week of December 4, the cost of purchasing 110kg pigs for fattening to 140kg was 11.00 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of purchasing 125kg pigs for fattening to 150kg was 11.39 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous week [13]. - As of the week of December 4, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 129.82kg, an increase of 0.60kg from the previous week, with a month - on - month increase of 0.46%. Among them, the average slaughter weight of group farms was 124.71kg, an increase of 0.16kg from the previous week, with a month - on - month increase of 0.13%, and the average slaughter weight of散户 was 146.08kg, an increase of 0.91kg from the previous week, with a month - on - month increase of 0.63% [13].

1. Report Date - The report is dated December 09, 2025 [2] 2. Research Team - The Energy and Chemical Research Team includes researchers such as Li Jie (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA/MEG), Peng Haozhou (Industrial Silicon/Polycrystalline Silicon), Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), and Liu Youran (Pulp) [3] 3. Market Performance and Outlook 3.1 Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures prices fluctuated within a narrow range. The closing price of Si2601 was 8,675 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.98%, with a trading volume of 251,796 lots and an open interest of 187,087 lots, a net decrease of 9,856 lots. The price of the SI2605 contract was 8,715 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.97%, with a trading volume of 141,927 lots and an open interest of 132,147 lots, a net increase of 17,042 lots. The top twenty long positions had a net increase of 10,865 lots, and the short positions had a net increase of 8,913 lots [4] - Spot prices were stable. The price of Sichuan 553 was 9,350 yuan/ton, the price of Yunnan 553 (oxygen - passed) was 9,400 yuan/ton; the price of Sichuan 421 was 9,950 yuan/ton, the price of Xinjiang 421 was 9,600 yuan/ton, and the price of Inner Mongolia 421 was 9,600 yuan/ton [4] 3.2 Market Outlook - Production cuts in the southwest production areas are approaching the seasonal low, and the start - up in the northwest region is basically stable. The monthly production is expected to be around 350,000 tons. On the demand side, the weakening expectation is being realized. The weekly output of polysilicon is 26,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3%, and the monthly output is expected to be within 115,000 - 120,000 tons. The average operating load rate of silicone monomers is 74.29%, a decrease of 2 percentage points from last week. In addition, the alloy demand has entered the seasonal off - season [5] - Market attention has shifted from production cuts in the southwest to the realization of the weak demand expectation. Spot prices have been slightly adjusted, but the spot price center remains stable. The polysilicon sector opened low and tumbled, driving the same - frequency weakening. At the same time, the sharp decline of major commodities on the raw material side has enlarged the downward space of industrial silicon. After breaking through the short - term support, it will test the lower edge of the range again. The high points of the rebound are gradually moving down, and the short - selling structure is initially showing. It will mainly fluctuate bearishly. Pay attention to whether the support around 8,500 yuan/ton can be confirmed for the second time [5] 4. Market News - On December 08, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 7,528 lots, a net increase of 240 lots from the previous trading day [6] - Forecast of next year's fiscal policy: The deficit rate is about 4%, and the new government debt will exceed 12 trillion yuan. Many experts expect that considering the economic and social situation next year, China will continue to implement an expansionary fiscal policy, that is, a proactive fiscal policy, and the policy stance will remain "more proactive". Specifically, next year's fiscal deficit rate will not be lower than 4% in 2025, and the issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and local government special bonds will continue to be moderately increased, so that the new government debt scale next year will exceed about 12 trillion yuan in 2025, for example, it may be between 13 trillion and 16 trillion yuan. This will expand fiscal expenditure. For example, the national general public budget expenditure is expected to exceed 30 trillion yuan next year, playing an important role in stabilizing growth, expanding domestic demand, and benefiting people's livelihood [6]

Report Information - Report Name: PTA Daily Report [1] - Date: December 09, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - On the 8th, the closing price of the PTA main futures contract TA2601 was 4,694 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton or 0.13%. The settlement price was 4,678 yuan, and the daily position decreased by 31,308 lots. With the crude oil market showing a strong and volatile trend, providing cost support for PTA, but the operating rate of downstream polyester decreasing and the PTA de - stocking speed slowing down, after the game between long and short news, the short - term PTA market is expected to be stable [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures market: TA2601 closed at 4,694 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 494,289 lots and a decrease of 31,308 lots; TA2605 closed at 4,770 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 213,678 lots and an increase of 19,592 lots [6]. 2. Industry News - International oil prices rose for the third consecutive day to a half - month high. The settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for January 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $60.08 per barrel, up $0.41 or 0.69%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for February 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $63.75 per barrel, up $0.49 or 0.77% [7]. - The price of PX in the Chinese market was estimated at $840 - 842 per ton, up $3 per ton; the price in the South Korean market was estimated at $820 - 822 per ton, up $3 per ton. There was one deal heard on the day, with any February cargo sold at $842 per ton [7]. - The price of PTA in the East China market was 4,650 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The average daily negotiation basis was at a discount of 30 yuan/ton compared to the futures contract 2601, remaining stable [7]. 3. Data Overview - Multiple data charts are provided, including international crude oil futures main contract closing prices, upstream raw material spot prices, PX prices, MEG prices, PTA price summaries, basis differences, PTA processing margins, TA5 - 9 spreads, PTA warehouse receipt quantities, polyester factory load rates, PTA downstream product prices, and PTA downstream product inventories, all with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][13][17]

Report Information - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report [1] - Date: December 9, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The New York raw sugar futures fluctuated downward on Friday, with the main March contract closing down 0.40% to 14.82 cents per pound. The London ICE white sugar futures' main March contract closed down 0.05% to $425.60 per ton. The market is stimulated by the decline in Brazil's sugar - making ratio and early harvest, and the dry weather in central - southern Brazil supports sugar prices, while the increasing supply in the Northern Hemisphere suppresses sugar prices [7]. - The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar rebounded yesterday. The 01 contract closed at 5,337 yuan per ton, up 18 yuan or 0.34%, with a reduction of 27,587 positions. The domestic new sugar price has been lowered. In the fundamental aspect, the number of sugar mills in the south starting production is increasing, the market lacks confidence, and the new sugar price is falling. The short - sellers of the main SR601 contract have completed position transfer or hedging. The large discount of the 01 contract and only 1,671 warehouse receipts are unfavorable to short - sellers, and there may be a market to repair the basis with a space of about 100 yuan [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: SR601 closed at 5,337 yuan per ton, up 18 yuan or 0.34%, with a position reduction of 27,587. SR605 closed at 5,244 yuan per ton, down 2 yuan or 0.04%, with a position increase of 14,181. The US sugar 03 contract closed at 14.82 cents per pound, down 0.06 cents or 0.40%, with a position reduction of 2,516. The US sugar 05 contract closed at 14.41 cents per pound, down 0.01 cents or 0.07%, with a position reduction of 342 [7]. 2. Industry News - **Brazil**: In November, Brazil exported about 3.3023 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 2.48%. From April 2025 to November 2025 in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, Brazil had cumulatively exported 25.2591 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 4.91% [9]. - **India**: The average production cost of sugar in India has risen to 41.72 rupees per kilogram. The industry calls for an increase in the minimum selling price of sugar. From the start of the 2025 - 26 sugar - crushing season to November 30, 2025, the sugar production reached 4.108 million tons, compared with 2.876 million tons in the same period last year. The number of sugar mills in operation increased to 428, compared with 376 in the same period last year [9]. - **Yunnan**: As of December 8, 2025, 16 sugar mills in Yunnan had started production in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, 6 more than the same period last year. The planned design capacity of the operating sugar mills was 59,900 tons per day, an increase of 23,500 tons per day compared with the same period last year [9]. - **Guangxi**: As of December 6 - 7, 2025, 56 sugar mills in Guangxi had started production in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, 11 fewer than the same period last year. The daily sugar - cane crushing capacity was 425,000 tons, a decrease of 112,500 tons compared with the same period last year [9]. 3. Data Overview - **Futures Trading Data**: The table shows the trading volume, position changes of the top 20 members in the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures, including details such as the trading volume, long - position volume, and short - position volume of each member and their changes [22].

Report Information - Report Name: MEG Daily Report [1] - Date: December 09, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The current fundamentals of ethylene glycol lack overall drivers, but the continuous decline of spot prices to low levels has weakened the market selling pressure. It is expected to maintain a low-level volatile trend in the short term [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures market: The closing price of EG2601 was 3,701 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan; the closing price of EG2605 was 3,809 yuan/ton, down 64 yuan. The trading volume was 178,188 lots and the open interest was 310,473 lots. The main contract opened at 3,722 yuan, with the highest at 3,732 yuan, the lowest at 3,687 yuan, and settled at 3,706 yuan [7] 2. Industry News - International oil prices: Expected Fed rate cut next week may boost economic growth and energy demand, and geopolitical uncertainties support the market. WTI crude oil futures for January 2026 settled at $60.08 per barrel, up $0.41 or 0.69%; Brent crude oil futures for February 2026 settled at $63.75 per barrel, up $0.49 or 0.77% [8] - Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol market: The spot negotiation price was 3,681 - 3,683 yuan/ton this week, down 65.5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The negotiation prices before December 19th, late December were in different ranges. The spot basis was at a discount to EG2601, and the basis situation varied in different periods. The futures market continued to be weak, and the spot price continued to decline [8] 3. Data Overview - Multiple data charts are provided, including PTA - MEG spread, MEG price, MEG futures price, basis between futures and spot, international crude oil futures main contract closing price, raw material price index (ethylene), MEG downstream product price and inventory, etc., with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][15][16]