Report Information - Report Name: Soda Ash, Glass Daily Report [1] - Date: November 4, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The soda ash market is expected to oscillate weakly due to the potential short - term impact on demand from the shutdown of four coal - fired glass production lines in the Shahe area, and the subsequent oversupply situation in winter. The anti - involution expectation in the soda ash industry has not materialized [8]. - The glass market is in a game between "strong expectation" and "weak reality". The Shahe production limit has been implemented, but the actual situation is not as expected. The recent price will oscillate, and the medium - term direction will be dominated by fundamentals [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash, Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - On November 4, the main futures contract SA601 of soda ash opened low and moved lower, closing at 1202 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton with a decline of 2.51%, and the daily position increased by 22,468 lots [8]. - Fundamentally, the production and sales of enterprises tend to be balanced, and inventory fluctuates slightly. The weekly production of soda ash increased by 17,000 tons to 757,600 tons, and the equipment maintenance is at a high level in the same period. The total shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises at the end of October increased by 2.53% month - on - month. The production of float glass is stable, and the production of photovoltaic glass remains unchanged. The inventory of soda ash plants slightly decreased to 1.702 million tons [8]. Glass - Fundamentally, four coal - fired production lines in Shahe will be shut down in the short term. The photovoltaic glass is in a weak balance, and the overall glass supply is at a high level this year. After the festival, the factory inventory remains high, and the inventory days have continuously increased. The real estate market has not shown a stable trend, and the demand for float glass may not continue to rise [9]. 2. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of active contracts for soda ash and glass, the weekly production of soda ash, the inventory of soda ash enterprises, the market price of heavy soda ash in central China, and the production of flat glass [12][15][16]

Report Information - Industry: Grease [1] - Date: November 4, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Core Views - The decline of grease continues, dragged down by the inventory accumulation in palm oil producing areas and the uncertainty of biodiesel policies [7]. - The domestic grease supply is sufficient, the spot price drops with the market, and the basis quotation remains stable [7]. - The palm oil main producing areas have a strong production increase expectation, the export data slows down, and the domestic and foreign inventories are expected to increase, putting pressure on palm oil, but there are expectations of production reduction and B50 in the long - term [7]. - Based on the import cost calculation, the current price decline space of soybean oil is limited and it has buying value, but it is suppressed by high inventory, and the short - term price has limited upward momentum, with a possible fluctuation range of 8000 - 8300 [7]. - For rapeseed oil, pay attention to the arrival and crushing situation of Australian seeds later and the progress of China - Canada relations. The domestic spot basis is stable and slightly strong, and the de - stocking trend continues. It should be regarded as short - term shock adjustment, pay attention to the lower technical support, and the medium - and long - term idea is to buy on dips [7]. Content Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Quotation Information** - Dongguan rapeseed oil traders' quotes: Grade 3 rapeseed oil in Dongguan factories is 01 + 630, and grade 1 rapeseed oil is 01 + 730 [7]. - The basis price of grade 1 soybean oil in the East China market: For grade 1 soybean oil, in November it is Y2501+250; from November to January it is 01 + 260; from December to January it is 01 + 280. For grade 3 soybean oil, it is 01 + 180. For raw soybean oil, it is 01 + 60. The palm oil quotes of Guangdong traders are stable: 18 - degree palm oil is 01 + 120 (at Guangzhou warehouse), 18 - degree palm oil is 01 + 100 (at Dongguan warehouse), 24 - degree palm oil is 01 - 80 (at Dongguan warehouse), and 28 - degree palm oil is 01 - 80 (at Dongguan warehouse) [7]. 2. Industry News - According to the data released by shipping survey agency ITS, Malaysia's palm oil export volume in October was 1,639,089 tons, a 5.2% increase compared with 1,558,247 tons in September. Among them, the export volume to China was 15,000 tons, a decrease of 31,000 tons compared with 45,000 tons in the same period last month [8]. - According to the data released by independent inspection agency AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil export volume in October was 1,501,945 tons, a 4.3% increase compared with 1,439,845 tons in September [8]. - After the summit between China and the US leaders on Thursday, China has started to purchase US soybeans, and the stagnation of purchases in the previous months has been alleviated. People familiar with the matter revealed that China has newly purchased at least four ships of US soybeans, which will be shipped from the West Coast and Gulf Coast ports of the US later this year and early in 2026, with a total volume of about 250,000 tons, marking the gradual recovery of China - US agricultural product trade [8]. 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts including the spot prices of East China grade 3 rapeseed oil, East China grade 4 soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, palm oil basis change, soybean oil basis change, rapeseed oil basis change, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar to Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, and US dollar to RMB exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [10][12][15][23][28][29]

Group 1: General Information - Report date: November 04, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team, including researchers for different products such as industrial silicon [3] Group 2: Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures prices opened low, then trended lower, and finally rebounded weakly. The Si2601 contract closed at 9140 yuan/ton, down 0.38%, with a trading volume of 226,808 lots and an open interest of 228,268 lots, a net decrease of 297 lots [4] - The price range of 553 industrial silicon is 8900 - 9300 yuan/ton, and the price range of 421 is 9550 - 9950 yuan/ton [5] Outlook - Industrial silicon enterprises have insufficient willingness to actively cut production. Supply in October will exceed about 430,000 tons, and there is no incremental demand. The loose supply - demand situation means there is no inventory reduction drive, and social inventory still exceeds 440,000 tons [5] - Spot prices have limited guidance on short - term futures prices. The expected support in the fourth quarter mainly comes from rising costs in the southwest and active production cuts, but the effectiveness of the positive factors remains to be seen [5] - The industrial silicon market has limited strong drivers. The futures price is still within the adjustment range since August. In November, warehouse receipts need to be concentrated for cancellation and delivery, which will intensify short - term price fluctuations, but the upside resistance is still obvious [5] Group 3: Market News - On November 03, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 46,161 lots, a net decrease of 1,092 lots from the previous trading day [6] - On October 31, the industrial silicon market inventory was 447,700 tons, a weekly increase of 0.58% and a year - on - year increase of 43.59% [6] - In September, the export volume of industrial silicon was 70,232.72 tons, a decrease of 8.36% from the previous month but a year - on - year increase of 7.73%. From January to September, the cumulative export volume was 491,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.55%, with an average monthly export volume of 61,500 tons [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply has a growth expectation, while demand continues to weaken under the suppression of steel enterprises' profits, and the overall fundamentals are relatively weak, leading to a weakening trend in iron ore prices. The current iron ore futures price fluctuates within the previous trading range, and it is necessary to observe whether there are signs of improvement in steel enterprises' profits and the support level of the lower limit of the previous trading range. Considering that the current rebar - iron ore ratio is at a historically low level, one can consider the arbitrage strategy of "going long on rebar and short on iron ore" to increase the rebar - iron ore ratio [4][6][69]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Iron ore futures main contract**: In October, the iron ore futures 2601 contract showed a wide - range volatile trend. It opened at 782.0 yuan/ton on October 9, then quickly declined, reached the monthly low of 760.0 yuan/ton on October 21, and then rebounded rapidly, hitting the monthly high of 810.5 yuan/ton on October 30. As of the close on October 31, it rose 19.5 yuan/ton or 2.50% from the September 30 closing price of 780.5 yuan/ton to 800 yuan/ton [5][12][13]. - **Rebar - iron ore ratio**: In October, the rebar - iron ore ratio (rebar main futures price / iron ore main futures price) generally showed a trend of "slight decline - volatile increase - decline again". It started to decline slightly from 3.9165 on October 9, reached the monthly low (also the lowest level in the past 10 years for the main contract ratio) of 3.8322 on October 13, then rose rapidly to the monthly high of 3.9700 on October 20, and then declined again. As of October 31, the ratio was 3.8825, down 0.0340 from the beginning of the month [15][16]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Environment Analysis 3.2.1 International Macroeconomic Analysis - **Sino - US tariff game**: Before the end of September, the Sino - US trade situation was generally easing, and a preliminary agreement was reached on the TikTok issue. However, in early October, the game between the two sides escalated unexpectedly. The US introduced a series of measures, and China counterattacked. In the middle of the month, the US attitude softened, and the two sides agreed to hold a new round of economic and trade consultations. At the end of the month, the two heads of state met in Busan, South Korea, and reached consensus on multiple issues. Although the negotiation results sent positive signals, the market weakened after the positive news was realized [18][20][21]. - **Fed's interest rate decision**: On October 30, the Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00%, which was in line with market expectations, and announced the end of balance - sheet reduction on December 1. After the meeting, Powell's statement was interpreted as slightly hawkish, and the probability of a December interest rate cut declined, causing short - term fluctuations in gold and US stocks [22]. 3.2.2 Domestic Real Estate Analysis - **Sales data**: From January to September, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of commercial housing sales area and sales volume were - 5.5% and - 7.9% respectively, with the decline further expanding compared to the previous month. In September, the year - on - year decline of the second - hand housing sales price index in 70 large and medium - sized cities continued, with the decline in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities narrowing by 0.3, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points respectively compared to August [23][24]. - **Investment data**: From January to September, the national real estate development investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year, with the decline expanding by 1 percentage point compared to the previous month, reaching the second - lowest level since March 2020. The decline in September further widened from 19.5% in August to 21.3%. The enthusiasm of real estate enterprises for development remained low, and the improvement of the real estate investment side still required a long wait [24]. 3.3 Fundamental Factor Analysis 3.3.1 Supply Side - **Imported ore**: In October, the iron ore shipment volume continued to increase slightly. As the end of the year approaches, the subsequent shipment volume is expected to remain at a relatively high level. The arrival volume in November is expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level, showing a trend of low in the front and high in the back. The combined shipment volume of Australia and Brazil in the past four weeks was 109.784 million tons, a 3.78% increase compared to the previous four - week period [31][32]. - **Domestic ore**: Since the beginning of the year, the domestic iron ore production has decreased year - on - year, but the decline has gradually narrowed. In October, the domestic mine capacity utilization rate first decreased and then increased, and it is expected to hover around 60% in the future. The 1 - 9 domestic iron ore production was 761 million tons, a 2.55% year - on - year decrease, with the decline narrowing by 0.9 percentage points compared to January - August [35]. 3.3.2 Inventory Side - **Port inventory**: As of October 31, the 45 - port inventory was 145.4248 million tons, an increase of 1.1889 million tons compared to the previous week. The port inventory has accumulated this month, mainly due to the slight increase in arrival volume and downstream production cuts. It is expected that the port inventory will continue to accumulate slightly [36]. - **Steel enterprise inventory**: As of the week of October 31, the average available days of imported iron ore inventory for steel mills was 21 days, an increase of 1 day compared to the previous week. After the holiday consumption, the steel mill inventory has returned to the original level of about 20 - 21 days, and the market has returned to the state of replenishing inventory on demand [46]. 3.3.3 Demand Side - **Production indicators**: As of October 31, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.75%, a decrease of 2.96 percentage points compared to the previous week; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 88.61%, a decrease of 1.33 percentage points compared to the previous week; the daily average hot metal output was 2.3636 million tons, a decrease of 35,400 tons compared to the previous week. In October, these indicators continued to decline, and the decline accelerated at the end of the month [47]. - **Steel product data**: The actual weekly output of the five major steel products in the week of October 31 increased by 99,700 tons compared to the previous week, and the consumption volume also increased. However, this data deviated from the hot metal data, and the sustainability of the increase needs to be observed. Considering the cold weather, the demand for construction steel may be suppressed [55][58]. 3.3.4 Steel Enterprise Profitability - **Profit rate**: As of the week of October 31, the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 45.02%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points compared to the previous week, and more than half of the sample enterprises were in a loss state [64]. - **Tons of steel profit**: In October, the average profits of rebar blast furnace, hot - rolled coil, cold - rolled coil, and rebar electric furnace decreased by 64.79, 106.93, 69.52, and 13.08 yuan/ton respectively compared to September, and all were in a loss state. The loss of rebar electric furnace was the largest, but there were signs of stabilization recently [64]. 3.4 Market Outlook - **Supply**: The shipments from Australia and Brazil have rebounded, and the arrival volume has increased after two weeks of low levels. It is expected that the shipment volume will remain at a relatively high level, and the arrival volume in November will fluctuate at a relatively high level. The first - ship iron ore from Simandou in Guinea is expected to be shipped in November, which may suppress the price of far - month iron ore contracts [68]. - **Demand**: The daily average hot metal output continues to decline, mainly due to the continuous narrowing of steel production profits. More than half of the steel enterprises are in a loss state, and it is expected that the hot metal output will continue to decline. The production and demand of the five major steel products have recovered, but the sustainability needs to be observed, and the demand for construction steel may be affected by the cold weather [68]. - **Inventory**: Steel mills are back in the state of replenishing inventory on demand, with the available days of inventory at a relatively low level of 20 - 21 days. The port inventory has continued to accumulate and is expected to continue to accumulate slightly [68]. - **Market strategy**: The overall fundamentals are relatively weak, and the iron ore price is expected to be weak. The current iron ore futures price lacks a clear trading logic and fluctuates within the previous range. One can observe the improvement of steel enterprises' profits and the support level of the lower limit of the previous range. Considering the low rebar - iron ore ratio, one can consider the arbitrage strategy of "going long on rebar and short on iron ore" [69].

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint of the Report The supply pressure of lithium carbonate is decreasing, while the demand continues to grow. With the continuous reduction of social inventory and the support from the downstream - concentrated inventory, the spot market price increase is supported, and it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will continue to rise [8][11]. Summary According to the Table of Contents I. Market Review and Future Market Outlook - **Market Review**: In October, the main contract of lithium carbonate rose by 10.87%, with the contract running between 72,000 - 84,940. The total open interest increased by 30% to 883,000 lots. The spot lithium price also rose steadily, with a monthly increase of 9.5%. The supply reached its peak and the demand remained strong, leading to continuous inventory reduction in the social inventory of lithium carbonate [10]. - **Future Market Outlook**: The supply growth of lithium carbonate is limited, and the demand continues to increase. The social inventory is expected to continue to decline, and the price of lithium carbonate is expected to continue rising [11]. II. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Lithium Ore: Quantity and Price Increase**: By the end of October, the prices of Australian ore, high - grade and low - grade lithium mica all increased, with the increase of lithium ore prices greater than that of lithium carbonate. In September, China's lithium ore imports increased by 14.8% month - on - month. The output of lithium mica decreased while that of lithium spodumene increased [14][15][16]. - **Future Lithium Ore Supply Increment Analysis**: Australian ore supply is expected to increase steadily; African lithium ore production is growing; American lithium ore supply will increase slightly; China's new lithium ore projects will release production capacity, with the increment concentrated in 2026 [20][23][25][26]. - **Salt Factories are in Production Loss, but Lithium Carbonate Output Continues to Grow**: In October, the domestic lithium carbonate output reached a record high of 92,260 tons. In September, the import volume of lithium carbonate decreased. Although salt factories are in production loss, due to the good downstream demand, it is expected that the output in November will remain at the October level [28][29]. - **Future Lithium Carbonate Supply Increment Analysis**: From 2025 to 2026, the increment of lithium ore will be 16.2 and 17.5 tons LCE respectively, and the increment of lithium carbonate from salt lakes will be 9.8 and 10.3 tons respectively. With the increment from the recycling end, the total lithium resource increment in 2025 and 2026 is expected to be 27.6 and 29.3 tons [33]. III. Demand Side: New Energy Vehicles and Energy Storage Demand Drive High Growth of Lithium Batteries - **Positive Electrode Materials: Quantity and Price Increase**: By the end of October, the prices of various positive electrode materials increased. In September, the output of positive electrode materials also increased, and it is expected that the high - prosperity situation will continue until the end of the year [35][36]. - **Lithium Batteries: Price and Quantity Increase, and Exports are Good**: By the end of October, the prices of various lithium batteries increased. In October, the output of lithium batteries increased significantly, and the export continued to increase while the inventory decreased. It is expected that the output in November will exceed 200GWH [45][46]. - **China and Europe Lead the Global New Energy Vehicle Sales Growth**: From January to September, the global new energy vehicle sales increased by 29.3% year - on - year. China, Europe, and the United States all showed growth, with China's new energy vehicle sales reaching 11.2 million, a 35% year - on - year increase [53]. - **High Growth in the Energy Storage Field**: From January to October 2025, the output of China's energy storage cells increased by 55% year - on - year. The domestic energy storage tender scale continued to expand, and it is estimated that the annual output in 2025 will reach 520GWH [56]. IV. Lithium Carbonate Production Cost Analysis The production costs of lithium carbonate from different raw materials vary greatly. The current cost support level of lithium carbonate is around 62,000 yuan/ton [57]. V. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet In October, the domestic social inventory of lithium carbonate continued to decline, and it is expected that the market will continue to reduce inventory in the context of increasing demand and stable supply [59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information regarding the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the context of the realized export increment, the supply - demand pattern has marginally improved. The focus of the fundamentals has shifted to the transmission of the tight - mine logic, which provides some support for zinc prices. However, the upside is constrained by weak consumption, leading to a weak rebound and repair of SHFE zinc at low levels [7][25]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1. Market Review - In Q1, the center of zinc prices declined and entered a wide - range oscillation range. In Q2, macro - risk events drove SHFE zinc futures prices to gap down and move lower. The shadow of tariff policies persisted, and the oversupply in the industrial supply - demand situation pressured zinc prices, which oscillated within a range. In Q3, the anti - involution trend in the domestic commodity market and the rising expectation of overseas interest rate cuts pushed the macro - environment to turn warmer. However, the continuous drag from the SHFE zinc fundamentals prevented resonance, resulting in a pattern of rising and then falling within a range. In July, tariff policies increased trade uncertainty, causing the market sentiment to turn cautious. The macro and fundamental aspects resonated, and SHFE zinc dipped to 21,865 yuan/ton. In the second half of the month, the anti - involution sentiment swept through the commodity market, and SHFE zinc led the rally among non - ferrous metals. At the end of July, the lack of super - expected stimulus in the Politburo meeting, combined with the fundamental drag, pressured SHFE zinc again. In August, the core contradiction of abundant zinc concentrate and zinc ingots in the zinc market became more prominent during the off - season of demand. Supported by overseas interest - rate cut expectations and the low - inventory pattern on the LME, SHFE zinc was difficult to decline significantly, oscillating between 22,000 and 23,000 yuan/ton. In September, the strengthening overseas interest - rate cut expectation and the shift of the LME 0 - 3 structure to Back and its widening supported the zinc price from the external market. In China, the supply exceeded demand, and the inflection point of social inventory destocking was postponed. SHFE zinc lacked upward momentum and maintained an oscillating pattern. In late September, affected by the macro - environment, the strengthening US dollar led to long - position liquidation in LME zinc, dragging SHFE zinc below 22,000 yuan/ton. In October, with the opening of the export window, some zinc ingots were exported, and the supply - demand pattern improved marginally [9][10]. 3.1.2. Future Outlook - On the mine side, seasonal production cuts in northern domestic mines and some mines' active production control after completing their annual plans have led to a decline in domestic zinc - mine supply. The zinc - mine TC is still expected to weaken. In October, the imported zinc - mine processing fee also showed a peak - and - decline trend. Although the internal - external ratio has recovered from its low level, zinc - mine imports are still at a loss, highlighting the price advantage of domestic mines. With the support of smelters' winter - storage demand, the domestic TC is under more significant pressure. On the supply side, although smelters currently have relatively abundant raw - material inventories, the decline in domestic zinc - mine processing fees and the tightening of raw - material supply may restrict zinc - ingot production. On the demand side, the "Silver October" peak season ended, and the primary consumption sector performed mediocrely, with year - on - year performance worse than last year. Coupled with the weak prices of the black - metal sector, there were few bright spots overall. Affected by the closure of the import window, zinc - ingot imports significantly shrank. In mid - to late October, the export window to Southeast Asia opened, and the decline in the net - import level alleviated the domestic oversupply situation. The high - premium structure overseas stimulated the delivery of some invisible inventories, and the extreme value of 0 - 3 Back significantly declined. However, the LME zinc inventory remained below 40,000 tons. The tight - supply pattern and the generally optimistic macro - environment strongly supported LME zinc [7][25]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. Winter Storage Leads to Peaked - and - Declined Processing Fees, and Domestic Zinc - Mine Supply Weakens Month - on - Month - ILZSG indicates that due to planned and unexpected mine closures, zinc - mine production has decreased in the past three years, but it may increase by 4.3% to 1.243 billion tons in 2025. It is expected that due to the increase in concentrate supply, refined - zinc production will grow by 1.8% to 1.373 billion tons in 2025, and demand will grow by 1% to 1.364 billion tons, resulting in a global refined - zinc supply surplus of 93,000 metric tons. In 2025, factors such as the复产, new production, and adjustment of mining plans of overseas zinc concentrates will significantly improve the tight - supply pattern of zinc mines. The overseas market mainly focuses on the Russian Ozernoye and Congo (Kinshasa) Kipushi projects as growth points, and the Irish Tara mine plans to reach full production in 2025. In the fourth quarter, domestic smelters are actively producing due to winter - storage demand, and the demand for domestic zinc mines is strong. However, domestic mines are reducing production due to seasonality and some mines' production control after completing their annual plans, resulting in a month - on - month weakening of supply. The domestic zinc - mine processing fee significantly declined in October. If the domestic supply remains tight, the imported zinc - mine processing fee is expected to decline further. Imported zinc mines are in a long - term loss, and smelters' purchasing willingness is low. The increase in the imported zinc - mine TC previously may lead to the recovery of overseas smelters' production, which may affect future imported - mine inflows, and the imported processing fee is also under downward pressure [26][27][28]. 3.2.2. Smelters' Raw - Material Inventories at a High Level, and the Price of By - Product Sulfuric Acid Rises - Due to the abundant supply at the raw - material end, smelters' raw - material inventories are at a high level. The rising by - product price further stimulates smelting enthusiasm, and domestic zinc - ingot production has increased significantly year - on - year in 2025. Since Q3, the internal - external ratio has decreased, and smelters have continuously snapped up domestic zinc mines due to the economic advantage of domestic mines. The domestic zinc - mine processing fee has peaked and declined, but the smelting - end raw - material inventory is abundant, and zinc - ingot production remained at a high level in September. According to SMM data, domestic zinc - ingot production in September was 600,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.19%. The total production from January to September was 5.0691 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 8.85%. Domestic smelters will start negotiating the zinc - mine processing fee for November with mines. Currently, domestic smelters' demand for raw materials is strong, and the zinc - mine processing fee will continue to decline in the context of a tight - mine pattern. At the beginning of November, the SMM imported zinc - concentrate index decreased by $8.5 per dry ton month - on - month to $110.25 per dry ton, and the average weekly SMM Zn50 domestic TC decreased by 150 yuan per metal ton month - on - month to 3,250 yuan per metal ton. The comprehensive zinc - concentrate processing fee (after a 2/8 split) is 4,700 yuan/ton. The decline in TC squeezes the smelting - end profit, but the price of by - product sulfuric acid continues to rise under cost support. In October, the increase in sulfuric - acid prices was less than that at the cost end, and there may be a possibility of production reduction, which drives the trading activity in the smelting - acid market, and the price rises accordingly. However, downstream resistance to high prices is prominent, and the domestic sulfuric - acid market may oscillate at a high level in November [35]. 3.2.3. The Export Window Opens, and Zinc - Ingot Exports Increase Month - on - Month in October - According to the latest customs data, 505,400 physical tons of imported zinc concentrates were imported in September 2025, a month - on - month increase of 8.15% and a year - on - year increase of 24.94%. The cumulative imported zinc - concentrate volume from January to September was 4.008 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40.49%. Although the imported zinc - mine window remains closed, the previously locked - price and long - term contract zinc mines of smelters are arriving at ports successively, and the arrival volume of imported zinc mines remains stable. In the fourth quarter, mines are reducing production seasonally, and with the winter - storage demand and the high - level refined - zinc production, domestic smelters' demand for zinc mines is strong. However, the loss of imported zinc mines in October continued to expand compared with September, and domestic smelters are actively snapping up domestic zinc mines instead of importing, resulting in light spot - purchase transactions of imported zinc mines. It is difficult for the imported zinc - mine volume in October to increase further. In September, the imported refined - zinc volume was 22,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 57.03%. The cumulative imported refined - zinc volume from January to September was 258,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 19.27%. In September, 2,500 tons of refined zinc were exported. The LME 0 - 3 structure overseas once expanded to over $300 per ton, and the high - premium structure stimulated local - area deliveries. The Back structure weakened to below $100 per ton, but the LME zinc inventory remained below 40,000 tons, and the tight - supply pattern remained. Overall, the loss of zinc - ingot imports is over 4,000 yuan/ton, and the export window opens intermittently. It is expected that the zinc - ingot export volume of domestic smelters and traders will increase to about 10,000 tons [39][40]. 3.2.4. The "Silver October" Ends, and It's Difficult to Find Bright Spots in Demand in the Fourth Quarter - The galvanizing start - up rate was 55.82%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23%. The galvanizing raw - material inventory was 12,660 tons, and the finished - product inventory was 367,000 tons. Overall, consumption in October was lower than expected, and black - metal prices were lackluster. Downstream pipe traders mainly made rigid purchases, and the sales of galvanized pipes were poor. Enterprises increased their finished - product inventory and reduced production to lower the start - up rate to prevent excessive inventory. The finished - product inventory increased slightly, and enterprises still plan to lower the start - up rate in the future to prevent inventory accumulation. In terms of die - cast zinc alloys, the start - up rate was 49.73%. The die - cast zinc raw - material inventory was 13,000 tons, and the finished - product inventory was 10,230 tons. Currently, the overall downstream demand is relatively weak. Traditional hardware orders such as luggage zippers, small ornaments, and medals are in weak demand, and the current overall demand for real - estate hardware orders is also weak. Recently, affected by aluminum and copper prices, alloy profit support is insufficient, and some enterprises have raised the alloy processing fee. Under this influence, downstream customers also have a certain wait - and - see attitude and mainly make rigid purchases. Looking forward to next week, some enterprises plan to take a holiday to digest in - plant inventory. The start - up rate of zinc - oxide enterprises was 58.45%, a month - on - month increase of 0.34%. The zinc - oxide raw - material inventory was 2,417 tons, and the finished - product inventory was 5,740 tons. In the rubber - grade zinc - oxide sector, orders from large - scale tire factories are relatively stable, but the demand from some small - and - medium - sized enterprises is weak. In the ceramic - grade zinc - oxide market, the demand in the coarse - ceramic market is still relatively average, and recently, some enterprises have reported that the demand in the high - end ceramic - grade zinc - oxide sector has also weakened. In addition, the demand for feed - grade and electronic - grade zinc oxide is relatively normal [51][52]. 3.2.5. Real - Estate Sales Continue to Hit Bottom, and Investment Declines Expand - The market trading momentum continues to decline. From January to September 2025, the year - on - year decline in real - estate development investment expanded, and the year - on - year decline in commercial - housing sales volume also expanded. From January to September, the national newly built commercial - housing sales area was 658 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%, and the decline expanded by 0.8 percentage points. Real - estate development investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year cumulatively, and the decline expanded by 1 percentage point. New construction decreased by 18.9% year - on - year, and the decline narrowed by 0.6 percentage points. The completed - area decreased by 15.3% year - on - year, and the decline narrowed by 1.7 percentage points. The confidence in real - estate development investment is still weak. According to China Index Academy data, in September, the planned construction area of residential - land transactions in 300 cities decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, and the land - transfer fee decreased by 7.0% year - on - year. The year - on - year decline narrowed by 24.2 and 23.9 percentage points respectively compared with August. The industry's available funds are still under pressure, and the pressure on real - estate enterprises' funds directly affects the new - development and completion scale of the market. Currently, in addition to maintaining a positive attitude towards the development and construction of some products, enterprises mainly focus on optimizing and revitalizing existing inventory. In the short term, the overall scale - contraction situation in the industry will not change. In core cities, the incremental construction scale is expected to stabilize with the support of the fundamentals [66]. 3.2.6. The Policy of Trading in Old Cars for New Ones in the Auto Market Continues to Show Results - July and August are the traditional off - seasons for auto consumption, and the sales rush at the end of June overdrafted subsequent demand to a certain extent. However, the overall auto - market heat remained at a relatively high level, and the auto market still took the "dual - new" policy of trading in old cars for new ones and scrapping and renewing as the core growth point. In reality, affected by seasonal factors in summer and the transitional adjustment of the policy of trading in old cars for new ones, the growth rate slowed down periodically. In August, subsidies for trading in old cars for new ones restarted in various places, and many provinces refined the subsidy - distribution mechanism. Coupled with the intensification of local stimulus policies, the auto market showed a gradual recovery trend. According to the analysis of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the policy of trading in old cars for new ones continues to show results. Some regions that suspended the implementation of the policy resumed subsidies, and policies such as consumer - loan support stabilized consumer confidence. Enterprises continued to launch new models, helping the passenger - car market to operate stably, and sales increased year - on - year. According to the CAAM, in September, the production and sales of passenger cars reached 2.9 million and 2.859 million respectively, a month - on - month increase of 16% and 12.5% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 15.9% and 13.2% respectively. From January to September, the production and sales of passenger cars reached 21.241 million and 21.246 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13.9% and 13.7% respectively. In September, auto exports were 652,000, a month - on - month increase of 6.7% and a year - on - year increase of 21%. From January to September, auto exports were 4.95 million, a year - on - year increase of 14.8%. Many places have made frequent dynamic adjustments to the policy of trading in old cars for new ones. Some regions such as Jiangsu, Guangxi, and Qinghai have announced the suspension of auto - replacement and renewal subsidies. On the one hand, to ensure the orderly use of the third - and fourth - batch funds by the end of the year, the fund - use plan is refined by field and time. On the other hand, the national subsidy in 2025 is a phased measure, and it is difficult to have the same - scale subsidy in 2026. The exemption amount for new - energy vehicle purchase tax will be halved, and the consumer - loan discount rate will be weakened [72][73]. 3.2.7. The Scheduled Production of White Goods for Both Domestic Sales and Exports Declines - According to the latest scheduled - production reports of the three major white goods released by Industry Online, the total scheduled production of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in November 2025 is 2.847 million units, a 17.7% year - on - year decrease from the actual production in the same period last year. The scheduled production of all three major white

Report Information - Report Title: Index Monthly Report [1] - Date: November 3, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Nie Jiayi, Huang Wenxin, He Zhuoqiao [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In October, the new round of Sino-US game became the main factor affecting the market. The overall A-share market oscillated. After the Sino-US leaders' meeting in Busan, South Korea, although the negotiation results sent positive signals, the market weakened after the positive news landed due to over - inflated market expectations. The Fed cut interest rates in October, but the post - meeting statement was slightly hawkish, and the probability of a December rate cut declined. The economic data in September showed increased fundamental pressure, and policies were needed to boost the economy. With the easing of the external environment and the "15th Five - Year Plan" injecting new policy expectations into the market, the stock index is expected to continue its medium - to long - term strong trend after short - term shock consolidation at the key pressure level of 4,000 points on the Shanghai Composite Index. The market style should still focus on the dumbbell strategy, with balanced allocation of CSI 300 and CSI 500 [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Market行情回顾 - Since the beginning of the year, the A - share market has shown a trend of "short - term correction followed by a strong run, and a rebound after a sharp decline due to external shocks". Before the Spring Festival, the market was cautious due to uncertainties after the new US president took office. After the Spring Festival, the technology sector led the market under the influence of positive news. In late March, the market corrected again due to approaching the annual report disclosure period. After the US announced "reciprocal tariffs" in April, the A - share market broke through the support level. Then, with factors such as "national team" funds and better - than - expected Sino - US tariff negotiations, the index rebounded. After the "anti - involution" policy and the trillion - level infrastructure project of the Yajiang Hydropower Station, relevant concept sectors rotated and rose. After the "9·3 Parade", the market became cautious, and the index consolidated at a high level [8]. - In October, the Sino - US game affected the market. The overall A - share market oscillated. After the US softened its stance, the Shanghai Composite Index broke through 4,000 points. After the negotiation results in Malaysia and the leaders' meeting in South Korea were finalized, the market became cautious again, and the index slightly corrected. In October, the Wind All - A Index slightly declined by 0.03%. Among the major broad - based indices, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.85%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.10%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.56%, and the small and medium - cap index fell 1.15%. In terms of market style, the stable and financial sectors led the rise, while the growth sector led the decline [9]. 1.2 Industry Sector Situation - In October, among the CSI 300 sub - industries, the energy, utilities, and materials sectors led the rise, with increases of 9.50%, 4.35%, and 3.48% respectively, while the pharmaceutical, information, and real estate sectors led the decline, with decreases of 7.28%, 3.93%, and 3.80% respectively. Among the CSI 500 sub - industries, the utilities, energy, and raw materials sectors led the rise, with increases of 7.85%, 4.06%, and 2.46% respectively, while the real estate, communication, and optional consumption sectors led the decline, with decreases of 11.24%, 5.11%, and 4.94% respectively. At the first - level industry level, the coal, steel, and non - ferrous metal sectors led the rise, with increases of 10.02%, 5.16%, and 5.00% respectively, while the media, beauty care, and automobile sectors declined, with decreases of 6.04%, 3.84%, and 3.58% respectively [15]. 1.3 Valuation Comparison - As of October 31, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 14.1146, 11.7732, 33.3983, and 47.5311 times respectively, changing by - 0.3007, - 0.0916, - 2.4316, and - 0.9139 compared with the beginning of the month, and were at the 83.66%, 87.82%, 79.06%, and 76.34% percentile levels in the past ten years respectively [25]. 2. Futures Indicator Analysis 2.1 Transaction and Position Analysis - In October, the trading volume of stock index futures decreased. The average daily trading volumes of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 13.61, 6.33, 15.42, and 24.38 million lots respectively, decreasing by 1.93, 0.24, 0.63, and 3.98 million lots compared with the previous month. The positions of stock index futures mainly decreased. The average daily positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 26.75, 9.80, 25.44, and 35.98 million lots respectively, changing by - 0.77, - 0.35, 0.15, and - 1.76 million lots compared with the previous month [26]. 2.2 Basis Analysis - As of October 31, the basis discounts of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 main contracts narrowed, increasing by 13.43, 33.37, and 30.29 respectively compared with the end of September to - 9.27, - 88.60, and - 138.47. The basis premium of the SSE 50 main contract widened, increasing by 3.58 to 3.65 compared with the end of September. In terms of the annualized basis rate, as of October 31, the annualized basis rate of the CSI 300 main contract was - 1.47%, increasing by 1.17 percentage points compared with the end of September; the annualized basis rate of the SSE 50 main contract was 0.89%, increasing by 1.01 percentage points compared with the end of September; the annualized basis rate of the CSI 500 main contract was - 8.88%, decreasing by 1.86 percentage points compared with the end of September; the annualized basis rate of the CSI 1000 main contract was - 13.55%, decreasing by 4.80 percentage points compared with the end of September. Overall, the discount of the IF main contract narrowed, the IH main contract changed from a discount to a premium, and the discounts of the IC and IM main contracts widened [28]. 2.3 Cross - Variety Spread Analysis - In October, large - cap blue - chip stocks performed relatively better. As of October 31, the CSI 300/SSE 50 ratio was 1.5410, at the 95.00% historical percentile level, decreasing by 0.0117 compared with the end of September; the CSI 1000/CSI 500 ratio was 1.0240, at the 29.40% historical percentile level, increasing by 0.0020 compared with the end of September; the CSI 300/CSI 1000 ratio was 0.6182, at the 38.10% historical percentile level, increasing by 0.0056 compared with the end of September; the SSE 50/CSI 1000 ratio was 0.4012, at the 30.80% historical percentile level, increasing by 0.0066 compared with the end of September [43]. 3. Macroeconomic Tracking 3.1 Sino - US New Round of Tariff Game, Leaders' Meeting as Market Sentiment Turning Point - Before the end of September, the Sino - US trade situation was generally easing, and a preliminary agreement was reached on the TikTok issue. In early October, the game between the two sides escalated unexpectedly. The US announced a series of measures, and China counterattacked. In the middle of the month, the US attitude softened, and the domestic capital market sentiment reversed. At the end of the month, the Sino - US leaders met in Busan, South Korea, and reached consensus on multiple issues. However, the market weakened after the positive news landed [44][45][49]. 3.2 Fed's Interest Rate Cut in October, Post - Meeting Statement Slightly Hawkish - On October 30, the Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00%, which was in line with market expectations. Fed Chairman Powell said that the December interest rate cut path was not preset, and the market interpreted it as hawkish. The probability of a December rate cut declined, and gold and US stocks oscillated lower in the short term [50]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Data Analysis: Economic Slowdown in Q3, Widening Gap between Domestic and External Demand in September, Policy Boost Needed - In Q3, GDP grew by 4.8% year - on - year, 0.4 percentage points lower than in Q2, indicating increased economic growth pressure. From the perspective of the production method, the year - on - year growth rates of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries were 4.0%, 4.2%, and 5.4% respectively. From the perspective of the expenditure method, the contributions of final consumption expenditure, capital formation, and net exports to the economy in Q3 were 56.6%, 18.9%, and 24.5% respectively. In September, the gap between domestic and external demand widened further, and the cumulative investment growth rate turned negative. The domestic demand slowed down, while the external demand accelerated. The growth rate of fixed - asset investment turned negative, and the decline in real estate investment continued to expand [51][52]. 3.4 Liquidity Analysis: Margin Trading Balance Continuously Breaking Through, Slowdown in Household Deposit Transfer in September, Possibly Affected by Market Volatility - In October, the new social financing scale was 3.53 trillion yuan, 233.9 billion yuan less than the same period last year. The growth rate of social financing stock was 8.70%. The new RMB loans were 1608.1 billion yuan, 366.1 billion yuan less than the same period last year. M1 increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and M2 increased by 8.4% year - on - year. In the stock market, margin trading funds continued to drive the market up in October, but the growth rate slowed down. As of October 30, the A - share margin trading balance was 2499.048 billion yuan, an increase of 104.932 billion yuan compared with the end of September, with the increment decreasing by 62.457 billion yuan compared with the previous month. The proportion of A - share margin trading purchases in the total market turnover was 11.45% as of October 30, a decrease of 0.38 percentage points compared with the end of September, at the 97.65% percentile level in the past ten years. Since September, market volatility has intensified, leading to a slowdown in household deposit transfer [63][72]. 4. Market Outlook and Trading Strategies - Externally, after the Sino - US leaders' meeting in Busan, South Korea, although the negotiation results were positive, the market weakened after the positive news landed. Domestically, the economic data in September showed increased fundamental pressure, and policies were needed to boost the economy. The "15th Five - Year Plan" provided policy guidance for the future market style. In terms of liquidity, the margin trading balance continued to break through historical highs and was currently oscillating at a high level. Future Fed rate cuts may bring new liquidity, but the slowdown in household deposit transfer needs further observation. Overall, with the easing of the external environment and the new policy expectations injected by the "15th Five - Year Plan", the stock index is expected to continue its medium - to long - term strong trend after short - term shock consolidation at the key pressure level of 4,000 points on the Shanghai Composite Index. The market style should still focus on the dumbbell strategy, with balanced allocation of CSI 300 and CSI 500 [73]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Corn Monthly Report [1] - Date: November 03, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3][4] - Core Viewpoint: Substitution decreases and cost provides support. Pay attention to the grain selling rhythm and replenish stocks in a timely manner [5] Group 2: Report Core Viewpoints Supply - side - New - crop corn has increased production, and the combined port cost has moved down to around 2,100 yuan/ton. In November, the supply of new corn in Northeast and North China will continue to increase, and port inventories are stabilizing and rising [8]. - With the listing of new corn and the rise in wheat prices, wheat no longer has a feed substitution advantage over corn, and the substitution volume is gradually decreasing. The auction of imported corn has stopped, and the price advantage of alternative imported grains has weakened. Future imports may remain at a low level [8]. Demand - side - The continuous growth of pig inventory drives the feed demand to improve, but the breeding sector is in a loss, the willingness to build corn inventories is low, and spot purchases are not active. Feed enterprises mainly replenish stocks as needed, and their inventories may stabilize and slightly increase [8]. - Deep - processing enterprises have turned losses into profits, the operating rate has rebounded, enterprise inventories have slightly increased, and procurement enthusiasm has increased [8]. Price Trend - Spot prices may fluctuate around the cost price, mainly affected by the grain selling progress and the downstream inventory - building willingness. The supply - demand situation remains loose in November [8]. - For futures, the 2601 contract is still in the peak period of new grain sales, with large supply pressure. However, it is supported by planting costs and the decrease in substitutes. Contracts after 2605 are also supported by the minimum purchase price of wheat [8]. Strategies - Spot enterprises: Mainly replenish stocks appropriately [8]. - Futures investors: Consider lightly entering long positions and set stop - losses [8]. Important Variables - Purchase and storage policies, tariff policies, geopolitical situations, and weather [8] Group 3: Market Review Spot Market - In October, new grain continued to be listed, and corn prices declined seasonally. In Northeast China, prices initially decreased due to large supplies and then increased in the middle of the month. In North China, prices declined due to rainy weather and then rebounded at the end of the month. In the sales areas, prices followed the decline in the production areas [10]. - As of October 31, the reference price of corn in Harbin was 2,010 yuan/ton, and the second - grade corn in Changchun, Jilin was 2,070 yuan/ton. The price of deep - processed corn in Shouguang, Shandong was 2,136 yuan/ton, a decrease of 154 yuan/ton from the previous month. The purchase price of new grain in Jinzhou Port was 2,070 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of second - grade Northeast corn in Shekou Port, Guangdong was 2,230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan/ton month - on - month [10]. Futures Market - As of October 31, the main contract 2601 of Dalian corn futures closed at 2,130 yuan/ton, unchanged from the end of the previous month [11] Group 4: Fundamental Analysis Corn Supply - By the end of October, the autumn grain harvest was nearly completed, and winter wheat sowing progress varied by region [14]. - As of October 24, the total corn inventory in the four northern ports was 1.08 million tons, an increase of 180,000 tons month - on - month and a decrease of 720,000 tons year - on - year. The total corn inventory in southern ports was 607,000 tons, an increase of 157,000 tons from September and an increase of 404,000 tons year - on - year [14]. Domestic Substitutes (Wheat) - As of October 31, the national average corn price was 2,203 yuan/ton, and the average wheat price was 2,510 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 307 yuan/ton [16]. - In October, wheat prices rose widely. Supply was tight in the early stage due to reduced circulation and transportation difficulties, and then the supply - demand situation eased [16]. Imported Substitute Grains - In September 2025, China's grain imports were 15.83 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.3% and a year - on - year increase of 12.5%. From January to September, the cumulative grain imports were 106.73 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.1% [20]. - The import volume of various grains showed different trends in September. The future import volume of substitute grains may remain low due to quota restrictions and the listing of domestic new - crop corn [20][33]. Feed Demand - In September 2025, the national industrial feed output was 30.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5.0% [35]. - The theoretical pig slaughter volume shows different trends according to different data sources. Overall, feed production is expected to continue to increase slightly [37]. - As of October 30, the average inventory days of sample feed enterprises were 24.10 days, a month - on - month decrease of 7.34% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.74% [38]. Deep - processing Demand - In October, the raw material corn price decreased, the starch industry's operating rate increased, and the output increased. The consumption of corn by deep - processing enterprises also increased [40]. - The processing profit of starch enterprises has been repaired. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises first decreased and then increased in October [40][41]. Supply - demand Balance Sheet - The 2025/26 production and consumption forecasts of Chinese corn remain the same as last month, with imports reduced by 1 million tons to 6 million tons [47]. - The planting area of corn is expected to increase by 0.3%, and the total output is expected to increase by 0.4%. The consumption is expected to be basically the same as the previous year [47]. Group 5: Future Outlook Supply - side - New - crop corn has increased production, and the supply will continue to increase in November. Port inventories are stabilizing and rising [49]. - The substitution volume of wheat and imported substitute grains will decrease, and future imports may remain at a low level [49]. Demand - side - Feed enterprises' inventory - building willingness is low, mainly replenishing stocks as needed. Deep - processing enterprises' procurement enthusiasm has increased [49]. Price and Strategy - Spot prices may fluctuate around the cost price. Futures prices are supported by costs and substitution factors [49]. - Spot enterprises should replenish stocks appropriately, and futures investors can consider lightly entering long positions [49]

Report Overview - Report Title: "European Line Container Shipping Monthly Report" [1] - Date: November 3, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Research Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The year - end peak season is approaching, market expectations are turning positive. Although actual demand may not support a large price increase, a bottom - up recovery trend is likely to form, and the annual freight rate bottom may have been reached. - The conflict in the Middle East is frequent and repeated, and it is expected to be difficult to resolve within the year. The Red Sea may still be difficult to reopen in the short term. - It is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips [8][24] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 10 - Month Market Review - Shipping companies raised quotes for late October and November, and the container shipping index stopped falling and rebounded. The SCFIS, the underlying index of container shipping futures, began to rise in late October after 13 consecutive weeks of decline. - Multiple factors supported the strengthening of futures, especially far - month contracts. In early October, Sino - US frictions escalated, and the cease - fire in Gaza was in turmoil. The EC futures main contract 12 in October fluctuated strongly [11] 3.2 Freight Spot Quotation Situation - Quotes for November and December continue to rise. As the long - term contract season approaches, shipping companies are raising freight rates. For example, Maersk's large - container quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route in the first and second weeks of November are $2380 and $2210 respectively. Mainstream shipping companies' quotes in November are concentrated in the range of $2100 - $2800, while CMA CGM has the highest increase, with November quotes ranging from $2520 - $3546 and December quotes rising to $3752 - $4008. However, the prices may not fully materialize [14] 3.3 Container Shipping Supply - Demand Analysis 3.3.1 Demand Side - China's exports in September exceeded expectations, but the forward - looking indicators in October weakened. In September, China's total foreign exports were $328.57 billion, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. The decline in exports to the US narrowed significantly, and exports to Africa increased substantially. However, due to the end of the seasonal peak shipping demand and uncertainties in Sino - US tariffs, exports still face risks. In October, the new export order index of PMI dropped significantly by 1.9 percentage points to 45.9% [15] - The eurozone is facing pressure from both weakening exports and domestic demand. Multiple economic indicators in the eurozone have slowed down. In August, the EU's industrial production index decreased month - on - month and year - on - year, and commodity exports slowed down significantly year - on - year. The inflation level in Europe is showing a downward trend, while economic growth is under continuous pressure due to geopolitical conflicts and trade frictions [17] 3.3.2 Supply Side - In terms of potential capacity, since July 2024, global new orders for container ships have increased significantly. The order backlog and completion volume of shipbuilding are significantly higher than the same period in previous years. The order backlog of container ships has continued to grow at a high rate this year, and the growth rate accelerated further in August. - In terms of actual capacity, the capacity in November increased compared with October, with the weekly average capacity increasing to about 290,000 TEU, and it is initially estimated to increase to 310,000 TEU in December. - In the Red Sea, after a brief cease - fire, the conflict between Hamas and Israel has escalated again. It is likely that the Red Sea will continue to be bypassed within the year, and there will be no additional capacity supply pressure [22] 3.4 Outlook for the Future - The year - end peak season is approaching, and the market is more optimistic. Although actual demand may not support a large price increase, the freight rate is likely to bottom out and recover. - The conflict in the Middle East is difficult to resolve within the year, and the Red Sea may remain closed in the short term. It is recommended to maintain the strategy of buying on dips [24]

Report Overview - Report Title: Copper Futures Monthly Report - Date: November 3, 2025 - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin - Industry: Copper Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Supply - The tightness in the ore end is spreading to the smelting end. The supply tension of copper mines persists, and the TC of copper mines is still falling. The supply pressure of refined copper at home and abroad is easing. - Demand - Short - term high copper prices inhibit downstream consumption, but there are still growth expectations for medium - term copper demand. - Macro - The bullish pattern in the macro - aspect remains. Sino - US monetary policy easing expectations will continue to benefit base metals, and copper prices will strengthen [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Market Review and Future Outlook - **Market Review**: In October, the main contract of Shanghai copper operated in the range of (82300, 89270), with the total open interest rising 11% to 594,000 lots. The spot market turned from premium to discount. Social inventories continued to accumulate slightly. LME copper and COMEX copper also showed certain trends [9]. - **Future Outlook**: The supply pressure of refined copper at home and abroad is easing. The short - term high copper price inhibits downstream consumption, but the medium - term copper demand is expected to grow. The macro - environment is favorable, and copper prices are expected to strengthen [11][13]. 3.2. Supply Side: The Tightness of Raw Materials is Spreading to the Smelting End - **Copper Concentrate Market**: The supply and demand of the global copper concentrate market remain tight. In 2025, the incremental production of global copper mines is expected to be reduced to 270,000 tons. The TC of imported copper concentrates continues to decline, and the domestic supply - demand tension of copper concentrates intensifies [14][15]. - **Cold Material Market**: The import volume of anode copper in China from January to September 2025 decreased significantly year - on - year. The import volume of scrap copper increased. The supply - demand situation of the cold material market is expected to improve in November, and the processing fees are expected to rise steadily [18][19]. - **Smelter Production**: The production of smelters decreased. It is expected that the output of refined copper in China will continue to decline in November, and the output in December may increase slightly [21][22]. 3.3. Demand Side: The Peak Season of Copper Products is Not Prosperous, and the Terminal Demand Shows Resilience - **Domestic Copper Products Production**: From January to September, the output of domestic copper products increased year - on - year. In October, the operating rates of copper rods and their downstream industries were lower than expected, and the new orders were limited [27][29]. - **Automobile Market**: The production and sales of the automobile market have increased for five consecutive months, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles have reached a record high [31][32]. - **Power System**: From January to September, the investment in the power grid increased year - on - year, and it is expected to further increase. The investment in the power source is expected to lag behind that in the power grid [37][38]. - **Home Appliance Industry**: From January to September 2025, the output and export growth rates of home appliances slowed down, and the global home appliance production and sales are expected to face downward pressure [41]. - **Real Estate Industry**: From January to September 2025, the investment, new construction, and completion growth rates of the real estate industry were negative, and it is expected that the real estate industry will not contribute to copper demand in the short term [43].