南华期货硅产业链周报 ——短期向下空间有限，关注供给端政策 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年08月03日 【产业表现】 【核心逻辑】 基本面看，工业硅处于落后产能出清的产业周期逻辑，供应过剩压力持续。丰水期临近，西南地区企业陆续 增加开炉，复产预期逐渐落地，库存将有进一步累库风险。而下游需求端多晶硅利润改善有望拉动工业硅需 求，但需警惕若"反内卷"措施落地后，企业采取限产等生产调整，将对工业硅需求形成压制。因此，下半 年工业硅与多晶硅的联动逻辑可划分为两个阶段： 第一阶段为整合预期主导期：多晶硅产业整合预期推升市场价格上涨，企业利润修复将带动开工率提升，进 而形成"多晶硅价格走高→利润改善→开工率回升→工业硅需求增加→工业硅价格上行"的传导链条； 第二阶段为措施落地验证期：若多晶硅整合措施实质性落地且以限产为核心手段，将直接抑制对工业硅的原 料需求，触发"多晶硅限产→工业硅需求收缩→工业硅价格承压下行"的连锁反应。 所以整体来看，两阶段的核心差异在于产业整合从"预期 ...

1、截至2025年5月底，2024/25年制糖期（以下简称"本制糖期"）食糖生产已全部结束。本制糖期全国共生产 食糖1116.21万吨，同比增加119.89万吨，增幅12.03%。 （利空） 进口： 1、据海关总署公布的数据显示，2025年6月份我国进口食糖42万吨，同比增加39.23万吨。2025年1-6月份我 国进口食糖105.08万吨，同比减少25.12万吨，降幅19.29%。2024/25榨季截至6月，我国进口食糖251.26万 吨，同比下降64.93万吨，降幅20.54%。（利空） 2、据海关总署数据，2025年5月份我国进口糖浆和预混粉(含税则号1702.90、2106.906)合计6.43万吨，同比 减少15.06万吨。 2025年1-5月，累计进口19.03万吨，同比减少53.99万吨，降幅73.94%。2024/25榨季截至 5月，全国累计进口170290项下三类商品共82.32万吨，同比减少32.23万吨，降幅28.13%。 （利多） 白糖产业周报 ——持续回落 2025/08/03 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 国内市场 供 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Price**: This week, FEI M1 closed at $529/ton (+$2.72), with a premium of -$21.75/ton. The spot price remained under pressure. CP closed at $524/ton (+$2), with a premium of -$25/ton. MB M1 closed at $366/ton (-$3). The domestic PG2509 closed at 3,923 yuan/ton (+124 yuan), and the 09 basis was 375 (+82). The price difference between CP and FEI M1 further narrowed to -$6.82/ton [1]. - **Domestic Supply**: As of Thursday this week, the operating rate of major refineries was 81.55% (+0.34%). Qilu Petrochemical started operations, and Daxie Petrochemical increased its load. The estimated refinery profit was 976.96 yuan/ton, due to the decrease in crude oil costs. The operating rate of independent refineries was 48.20% (+0.04%), with Haike Ruilin increasing its load and Dongming Petrochemical undergoing maintenance. The utilization rate excluding large - scale refineries was 44.36% (-0.54%). The domestic LPG sales volume was 52.65 tons (+0.16 tons). Haike Ruilin and Hualian Petrochemical restarted this period. Zhongmei Mengda plans to resume production in early August, and Qicheng Petrochemical has a maintenance plan. The commercial volume of ether - after C4 was 17.74 tons (+0.24 tons), which was seasonally high. Longzhong's arrival data showed that 80.98 tons arrived this week (+32 tons), and the 4 - week average arrival volume remained high [1]. - **Domestic Demand**: In terms of chemical demand this period, the PDH operating rate decreased slightly due to new maintenance, the alkylation operating rate changed little, and the MTBE operating rate decreased slightly due to new maintenance. For civil gas, it was still in the off - season of consumption, and the overall demand was weak [2]. - **Domestic Inventory**: The factory inventory was 18.08 tons (-0.35 tons). This week, the factory inventory decreased slightly for the first time recently, but the overall factory inventory was still high. Longzhong showed that the arrival volume this week increased compared with last week, and the 4 - week average was high. The port inventory was 313.44 tons (+9.36 tons), and the inventory fluctuated at a high level [3]. - **Overseas Situation**: In the United States this week, C3 production remained at a high level, demand improved from a low level, and the 4 - week average increased significantly. It was still in the inventory accumulation cycle, but the inventory accumulation slowed down in recent weeks. Kpler showed that the US LPG exports in June were 5,969 KT (+300 KT), of which only 458 KT (+129 KT) were sent to China, while the volume sent to Japan increased to 1,332 KT (+223 KT). Middle - East LPG exports in June were 3,698 KT (-515 KT), of which 1,281 KT (-518 KT) were exported to China and 1,662 KT (+232 KT) to India [6]. - **Overall View**: This period, crude oil was strongly influenced by geopolitical issues and showed a strong upward trend. On Friday, affected by the US non - farm payrolls data, international oil prices dropped significantly. At the same time, the domestic policy sentiment also weakened, and the futures market declined sharply. For LPG, the prices of both domestic and international markets fluctuated weakly compared with crude oil, and the price ratio decreased. The CP propane price in August decreased by $55 to $520/ton compared with July. Despite high exports, the international market remained under pressure. The domestic supply side remained loose, the combustion demand was weak, and the chemical demand changed little this period. From the supply side, the operating rate of major refineries was stable this week, and the commercial volume increased slightly due to the resumption of production of some enterprises. In terms of imports, the arrival volume rebounded this week, and the arrival volumes in recent weeks were generally high, and the port inventory remained at a high level. From the demand side, the overall PDH operating rate increased significantly due to the resumption of production of some devices this week. Although it decreased slightly due to the shutdown of Bohua, there are still some start - up plans in August, which will support the demand for LPG to a certain extent. In addition, the MTBE exports still provided short - term support, and the alkylation oil changed little. Overall, the LPG market remained in a loose situation [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Core Data - **Supply**: The operating rate of major refineries was 81.55% (previous week: 81.21%, +0.34%); the operating rate of independent refineries was 48.2% (previous week: 48.16%, +0.04%); the domestic LPG commercial sales volume was 52.65 tons (previous week: 52.49 tons, +0.16 tons); the arrival volume (Kpler) was 1,017.55 tons (previous week: 640.95 tons, +376.6 tons); the arrival volume (LZ) was 81 tons (previous week: 49 tons, +32 tons) [8]. - **Demand**: The PDH operating rate was 72.63% (previous week: 73.13%, -0.5%); the MTBE operating rate was 66.18% (previous week: 67.85%, -1.67%); the alkylation oil operating rate was 46.56% (previous week: 46.36%, +0.20%); the sales - to - production ratio in East China was 103% (previous week: 99%, +4%); the sales - to - production ratio in South China was 100% (previous week: 93%, +7%) [8]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory was 18.08 tons (previous week: 18.43 tons, -0.35 tons); the port inventory was 313.44 tons (previous week: 304.08 tons, +9.36 tons) [8]. - **US Situation**: C3 production was 2,822 (previous week: 2,845, -23); C3 demand was 1,089 (previous week: 438, +651); C3 inventory was 83,477 (previous week: 82,849, +628); the shipping volume (Kpler) was 1,265.32 tons (previous week: 1,440.41 tons, -175.09 tons) [8]. - **Middle - East Situation**: The shipping volume (Kpler) was 690.89 tons (previous week: 977.79 tons, -286.9 tons) [8]. - **Price and Valuation**: Brent was $69.52/barrel (previous week: $68.39/barrel, +$1.13); FEI M1 was $529.82/ton (previous week: $527.10/ton, +$2.72); CP M1 was $524/ton (previous week: $522/ton, +$2); MB M1 was $0.70/ton (previous week: $0.71/ton, -$0.01); NWE C3 M1 was $455.6/ton (previous week: $454/ton, +$1.6); the price difference between FEI and CP M1 was $5.82 (previous week: $5.10, +$0.72); the price difference between CP and MB M1 was $157.49 (previous week: $152.45, +$5.04); the main LPG futures contract was 3,965 yuan/ton (previous week: 4,047 yuan/ton, -82 yuan); the price of the cheapest LPG deliverable was 4,340 yuan/ton (unchanged) [8]. 3.2 Price and Profit Data - **Price Data**: It includes the prices of various crude oils, LPG, and related products, as well as their price differences, month - to - month spreads, and price - to - price ratios. For example, Brent was $71.78/barrel (previous day: $72.75/barrel, -$0.97, previous week: $69.36/barrel, +$2.42); FEI C3 M1 was $526.88/ton (previous day: $530.96/ton, -$4.08, previous week: $530.18/ton, -$3.31) [11]. - **Profit Data**: It includes the盘面 profit and spot profit of various processes, such as the LPG import盘面 profit (FEI: -654.50 yuan/ton, previous day: -602.12 yuan/ton, -52.38 yuan, previous week: -627.55 yuan/ton, -26.95 yuan; CP: -259.40 yuan/ton, previous day: -169.23 yuan/ton, -90.17 yuan, previous week: -237.03 yuan/ton, -22.37 yuan), and the Asian naphtha cracking profit (-41.5404 dollars/ton, previous day: -39.51 dollars/ton, +1.07 dollars, previous week: -39.51 dollars/ton, -2.03 dollars) [11]. 3.3 LPG Domestic Supply and Demand - **Domestic Weekly Supply and Demand Data**: The operating rate of major refineries was 81.55% (previous week: 81.21%, +0.34%); the operating rate of independent refineries was 48.2% (previous week: 48.16%, +0.04%); the LPG commercial volume was 52.65 tons (previous week: 52.49 tons, +0.16 tons); the PDH operating rate was 73.58% (previous week: 75.30%, -1.72%); the MTBE operating rate was 66.18% (previous week: 67.85%, -1.67%); the alkylation oil operating rate was 46.56% (previous week: 46.36%, +0.1985%) [76]. - **Refinery Operating Rate**: The operating rate of major refineries showed a seasonal high, and the operating rate of Shandong independent refineries also changed slightly [77][79]. - **LPG Arrival Volume**: The weekly arrival volume of Chinese LPG showed a seasonal pattern, and the arrival volume increased this week [80][81]. - **Domestic Commercial Volume**: The commercial volume of LPG in China showed a seasonal pattern, and the industrial and civil LPG commercial volumes also had corresponding changes [82][84]. - **C3 Chemical Demand - PDH**: The PDH operating rate rebounded, and some devices had maintenance and restart plans [89]. - **C4 Chemical Demand**: It includes the demand and operating rates of MTBE and alkylation oil. The MTBE operating rate decreased slightly, and the alkylation oil operating rate increased slightly [93][104]. - **Combustion Demand**: The sales - to - production ratios of LPG in East China and South China increased, while that in Shandong was relatively low [115][116]. - **LPG Factory Inventory**: The factory inventory decreased slightly this week, but the overall inventory was still high [117][118]. - **LPG Port Inventory**: The port inventory increased, and the inventory remained at a high level [125][126]. - **Imports and Exports (Kpler)**: The weekly total imports of Chinese LPG showed a seasonal pattern, and the imports from the United States and the Middle East also changed [132][137]. 3.4 LPG US Supply and Demand - **Weekly Supply and Demand Situation**: The US refinery operating rate showed a seasonal pattern. The C3 production decreased slightly, the demand increased, and the inventory increased [144][147]. - **Monthly Supply and Demand Situation**: The monthly production, demand, and inventory of US propane also showed seasonal patterns [159][160]. - **Imports and Exports (Kpler)**: The weekly total exports of US LPG showed a seasonal pattern, and the exports to different regions also changed [161][170]. - **Panama Canal Situation**: The water level of the Panama Canal's Gatun Lake and the number of ships waiting to pass through the locks showed seasonal patterns [171][173]. 3.5 LPG South Korea and Japan Supply and Demand - **South Korea Supply and Demand**: The production, demand, inventory, imports, and exports of South Korea's LPG and propane all showed seasonal patterns [174][185]. - **Japan Supply and Demand**: The production, demand, inventory, imports, and exports of Japan's LPG also showed seasonal patterns [190][194]. 3.6 LPG Middle - East Supply and Demand - **By Exporting Country (Kpler)**: The total exports of Middle - East LPG, the exports of different countries (such as the UAE, Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait), and the exports to China all showed seasonal patterns [199][205]. - **By Destination**: The exports of Middle - East LPG to China, India, and Southeast Asia showed seasonal patterns [206][207]. - **By Export Terminal**: The exports of LPG from different export terminals (such as Ruwais in the UAE, Ras Laffan in Qatar, Mina Al - Ahmadi in Kuwait, and Ras Tanura in Saudi Arabia) showed seasonal patterns [208][211]. 3.7 LPG India Supply and Demand - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The production, demand, imports, and exports of Indian LPG showed seasonal patterns [216][219].

南华期货铁合金周报 去五大材库速度缓慢，限制钢厂进一步生产空间，硅铁和硅锰增长空间有限，6月金属镁产量8.55万吨，环比 +6.63%；长期来看，房地产市场低迷，黑色整体板块回落，市场对钢铁终端需求增长存疑，硅锰需求相对疲 弱。本周硅铁五大材需求量1.99万吨，环比-1%；硅锰五大材需求量12.37万吨，环比+0.036%。 【库存】本周硅铁企业库存6.56万吨，环比+5.64%，硅铁仓单库存11万吨，环比-0.54%；硅铁总库存17.56 万吨，环比+1.62%。硅锰企业库存16.4万吨，环比-20%；硅锰仓单39.6万吨，环比+1.98%；硅锰总库存 60.1万吨，环比1.3%，硅铁目前库存压力较大，上方压力较大；硅锰企业虽企业库存下降20%，但主要是套 保转移至仓单库存，仓单库存从之前的去库趋势转为累库。 周度观点 ——情绪回落 2025/8/3 陈敏涛（Z0022731） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 【核心逻辑】 【现货市场】硅铁主产地内蒙72硅铁5600元/吨（+0），宁夏72硅铁5650元/吨（+50）；贸易地河北72硅铁 5900元/吨（+0），天津72硅铁5900元/吨（ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints - Currently, the lithium ore, lithium salt, and cell markets are under significant inventory pressure, and the pattern of medium - to long - term supply - demand imbalance has not been substantially alleviated. There are two short - term logics in the market: a negative feedback cycle of "lithium salt price drop - ore price decline - lithium salt price drop again" and a stepped - up price increase chain of "futures price increase - capacity release - increased ore consumption - ore price increase". The cost reduction also drives the decline of lithium carbonate prices. The futures market in the second half of the year is expected to have two stages: prices will fluctuate upward in early Q3 and decline in Q4 [3][4]. - In the short term, the market is generally strong due to macro - sentiment and supply - side disturbances. In the long - term, as lithium salt prices rise, corporate profits will increase, and the future operating rate is expected to rise [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Summary 1.1 Market Review - This week, lithium carbonate futures fluctuated and declined. The closing price of the weighted index contract on Friday was 69,250 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 12.98%. The trading volume was 857,282 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 49.72%. The open interest was 696,107 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 212,071 lots. The LC2509 - LC2511 contract spread changed to contango structure. The number of warehouse receipts on the GME was 6,605 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 5,391 lots [1]. 1.2 Industry Performance - **Supply**: This week, the price of lithium ore turned down, with an average decline of about 13%. The price decline of the lithium salt market was smaller than that of the ore. The price of lithium carbonate decreased by about 2%, while that of lithium hydroxide increased. The basis quotes of traders remained stable. The weekly operating rate of sample lithium salt factories decreased by 7.86% week - on - week, and the lithium carbonate output decreased by 7.31% week - on - week [1]. - **Demand**: This week, the price decline of downstream material factories was relatively small. The price of lithium iron phosphate series decreased by about 2%, and that of ternary material series increased by about 1%. The price of the electrolyte remained stable. The operating rate of lithium iron phosphate decreased, and the output decreased slightly. The output of ternary materials increased week - on - week, the output of lithium manganate increased slightly, and the output of cobalt - acid lithium enterprises decreased week - on - week [2]. - **Terminal**: The price of the cell market remained stable. This month, the cell output increased month - on - month, while the output of power cells decreased month - on - month [3]. - **Inventory**: This week, the domestic lithium ore inventory decreased week - on - week, the lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 1.01% week - on - week, the lithium iron phosphate inventory increased week - on - week, the ternary material inventory decreased week - on - week, the lithium manganate inventory remained unchanged week - on - week, and the cobalt - acid lithium inventory increased week - on - week [3]. 1.3 Core Logic - There are two short - term logics in the market: a negative feedback cycle of "lithium salt price drop - ore price decline - lithium salt price drop again" and a stepped - up price increase chain of "futures price increase - capacity release - increased ore consumption - ore price increase". The cost reduction also drives the decline of lithium carbonate prices. The futures market in the second half of the year is expected to have two stages: prices will fluctuate upward in early Q3 and decline in Q4 [3][4]. 1.4 Nanhua's Viewpoint - In the short term, the market is generally strong due to macro - sentiment and supply - side disturbances. In the long - term, as lithium salt prices rise, corporate profits will increase, and the future operating rate is expected to rise [5]. 1.5 Bullish Interpretation - As the prices of lithium ore and lithium salt continue to decline, the probability of supply - side disturbances is increasing; the situation of high open interest and low warehouse receipts is being traded in the market; and the production schedule on the demand side has increased more than expected [6]. 1.6 Bearish Interpretation - There are still many future production expectations for lithium ore, and high inventory suppresses ore prices. If ore prices further decline, it will drag down the cost of lithium carbonate; the inventory of lithium ore and lithium salt is high and still in an accumulation trend; and industrial technology upgrades have postponed the elimination of high - cost production capacity [7]. 2. Price and Spread - The prices of lithium ore, lithium salt, downstream materials, and terminal products in the lithium - battery industry chain this week showed different trends. The prices of most lithium ore varieties decreased, the price of lithium carbonate decreased slightly, the price of lithium hydroxide increased, the price of downstream lithium iron phosphate decreased slightly, the price of ternary materials increased slightly, and the price of the electrolyte remained stable [8][9]. 3. Lithium Ore 3.1 Import - There are data on the total monthly import volume of lithium concentrate, the import volume by country, and their seasonal trends, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the summary [15]. 3.2 Output - There are data on the seasonal output of Chinese sample spodumene mines and lithium mica mines, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the summary [17]. 3.3 Inventory - There are data on Chinese lithium ore inventory, including total inventory, warehouse inventory, and trader inventory, as well as the seasonal inventory of lithium salt factories, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the summary [19]. 4. Supply 4.1 Operating Rate - The weekly operating rate of sample lithium carbonate enterprises decreased by 7.86% week - on - week. The operating rate of lithium spodumene enterprises increased by 14.67%, while that of lithium mica enterprises decreased by 37.83%, that of salt - lake enterprises decreased by 28.62%, and that of recycling material enterprises decreased by 4.06% [28]. 4.2 Output - The weekly total output of sample lithium carbonate enterprises decreased by 7.31% week - on - week. The output of lithium carbonate produced from lithium spodumene increased by 14.68%, while that from lithium mica decreased by 36.2%, that from salt - lake materials decreased by 28.63%, and that from recycling materials decreased by 4.1% [36]. 4.3 Import - There are data on the total monthly import volume of lithium carbonate, the import volume by country, and their seasonal trends, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the summary [37][39]. 4.4 Inventory - The weekly total inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 1.01% week - on - week. The inventory of smelters decreased by 6.19%, the downstream inventory increased by 7.18%, and other inventories decreased by 2.42% [46]. 4.5 Profit - There are data on the production profit of purchasing lithium ore, the import profit of lithium carbonate, and the theoretical delivery profit, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the summary [48][51]. 5. Demand 5.1 Operating Rate - There are data on the operating rates of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, lithium manganate, cobalt - acid lithium, and electrolyte, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the summary [53][55]. 5.2 Output - There are data on the weekly output of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, lithium manganate, cobalt - acid lithium, and electrolyte, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the summary [57][60]. 5.3 Inventory - There are data on the total inventory of the lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, lithium manganate, and cobalt - acid lithium industries, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the summary [62][64]. 5.4 Profit - There are data on the profits of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, lithium manganate, and cobalt - acid lithium, as well as the theoretical cost of lithium iron phosphate electrolyte, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the summary [66][67]. 6. Terminal Cells 6.1 Output - There are data on the output of SMM lithium batteries by type, the output of power cells by type, and the output of energy - storage cells, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the summary [69]. 6.2 Installation Volume - There are data on the seasonal installation volumes of Chinese lithium batteries, LFP batteries, and NCM batteries, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the summary [72][73]. 6.3 Cell Inventory - There are data on Chinese lithium battery inventory by type, the seasonal inventory of power cells by type, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the summary [75][77].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current market is in the fruit expansion period of apples, with few trading points on the futures market. The opening price of early - maturing apples is higher than last year and they are easy to sell, while inventory apples are dropping in price and hard to sell. The recent rise in the futures market was mainly due to low inventory, early - maturing apple prices and sales, as well as the boost from agricultural product consumption policies, but the price quickly fell as the sentiment faded [3]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the apple market. Bullish factors include low inventory in production areas and potential yield reduction due to unstable weather. Bearish factors include less - than - expected yield reduction and the impact of seasonal fruits [4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for apples is 7600 - 8400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.5% and a historical percentile of 0.1% over 3 years [3]. Apple Risk Management Strategy - **Inventory Management**: For those worried about new apple over - production and low purchase prices (long in spot), they can short the AP2510 apple futures at 7850 - 7900 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell the AP2510C7900 call options at 120 - 150 with a 50% hedging ratio [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For those worried about old - crop inventory decline, new - crop yield reduction and high purchase prices (short in spot), they can buy the AP2510 apple futures at 7650 - 7700 with a 50% hedging ratio and buy the AP2510P7700 put options at 140 - 160 with a 50% hedging ratio [3]. Apple Price Changes - Futures: On August 1, 2025, AP01 closed at 7685 with a daily decline of 0.8% and a weekly decline of 2.46%. Different contracts had different price changes [6]. - Spot: The prices of different grades of apples in various regions had different weekly changes, such as a - 4% weekly decline for Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples [6]. Apple Inventory - On August 1, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory according to Steel Union was 61.61 (a weekly decrease of 8.84), and according to Zhuochuang was 64.81 (a weekly decrease of 8.6). The storage capacity ratios in Shandong, Shaanxi, Gansu and other regions also decreased [10]. Bullish Factors - Low inventory in production areas provides support for the futures market. Unstable weather in production areas may lead to yield reduction in the Northwest region [4]. Bearish Factors - The overall yield reduction is less than expected, and there is even an expected increase in production according to bagging data. The peak season of seasonal fruits impacts the apple market, and consumer demand is weak [5].

南华期货焦煤焦炭周报 ——情绪回落 2025/08/01 南华研究院 黑色研究团队 张泫：Z0022723 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 周度观点 【盘面回顾】本周焦煤现货涨跌分化，产地部分煤种因资源紧缺上调报价，口岸蒙煤跟随盘面下跌，口岸蒙 5#原煤报价880-900元/吨，安泽低硫主焦报价1450-1500元/吨，周内焦炭现货四轮提涨落地，第五轮提涨已 经开启。本周双焦盘面暴跌，焦煤月间反套走强，焦炭月差波动不大，JM9-1月差-107.5(-48)，J9-1月 差-39(+10)。 【产业表现】 焦煤：本周新增停产矿山，部分煤种资源紧缺，矿山复产速度偏慢。进口方面，本周口岸蒙煤平均通关量维 持在1000车以上，海煤进口利润收窄，但多数煤种仍具性价比，后续到港仍有压力。需求方面，盘面回调部 分期现商解套，现货抛压加重，口岸报价不断下调，焦煤流拍率环比提高，焦煤投机需求表现偏差。焦化厂 维持刚需采购，当前原料库存可用天数偏高，终端继续补库的驱动不足。 焦炭：现货4轮提涨全面落地，即期焦化利润环比修复，但多数焦化厂仍处于微亏状态，增产积极性一般。下 游钢厂维持较高铁水，焦炭现货资源较为紧张 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The market has high expectations for increased sugar production in the 25/26 sugar - cane crushing season in India and Thailand, which suppresses sugar prices. Brazil's overall production progress was lower than the historical average, causing concerns about potential production cuts. However, data in early July showed an acceleration in production and a significant increase in the sugar - making ratio. In the domestic market, the opening of the profit window for out - of - quota imports led to a rapid decline in futures prices to close this window [4]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Content 3.1 Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The predicted monthly price range for sugar is 5600 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 4.40% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 2.2% [3]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventories worried about price drops, they can short Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2509) at 5800 - 5850 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell call options (SR509C5800) at 15 - 20 with a 50% hedging ratio [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventories aiming to lock in procurement costs, they can buy Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2509) at 5650 - 5700 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell put options (SR509P5700) at 20 - 30 with a 75% hedging ratio [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - The high expectation of increased production in India and Thailand in the 25/26 season suppresses sugar prices, while concerns about Brazil's production cuts cause price fluctuations. The opening of the domestic out - of - quota import profit window leads to a decline in futures prices [4]. 3.3利多解读 (Positive Factors) - As of the end of June, Guangxi's cumulative sugar sales reached 514.06 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 61.44 million tons, with a sales - to - production ratio of 79.51%, up 6.29 percentage points year - on - year. Industrial inventory was 132.44 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.08 million tons [5]. - India's NFCSF predicts that the ending sugar inventory in the 2024/25 season will be between 4.8 - 5 million tons, sufficient for domestic consumption from October to November 2025 [5]. - China has suspended imports of Thai syrup and premixed powder [5]. - From the beginning of the 2025/26 season to mid - July, Brazil's central - southern region had a cumulative cane crushing volume of 256.14 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.61%; sugar production was 15.655 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.22% [5]. - In June, the import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 103,500 tons [7]. - Brazil has increased the mandatory blending ratio of ethanol in gasoline from 27% to 30% and biodiesel in diesel from 14% to 15% [7]. - Coca - Cola plans to re - use sugar as a beverage additive in the US, and PepsiCo may follow suit if there is market demand [8]. 3.4利空解读 (Negative Factors) - In the 2024/25 season, Guangxi's cumulative cane crushing volume was 48.5954 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5847 million tons, but sugar production was 6.465 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 283,600 tons [8]. - Analysis firm JOB predicts a 5% increase in Brazil's sugar production to 46 million tons in the 25/26 season [8]. - Thailand's sugar production in the 24/25 season is expected to reach 10.39 million tons [8]. - India's monsoon arrived 3 - 4 days earlier than usual, and it is expected that the 25/26 season will see a strong recovery in sugar production, reaching about 35 million tons [8]. - In June, sugar imports were 424,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 397,000 tons, and the out - of - quota import profit window is open [9]. - In the first half of July, Brazil's central - southern region had a cane crushing volume of 49.823 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.77%; sugar production was 3.406 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.07% [9]. 3.5 Market Data - **Basis and Price Changes**: - On July 31, 2025, the basis between Nanning and SR01 was 395, with a daily increase of 11 and a weekly increase of 13; the basis between Kunming and SR01 was 260, with a daily increase of 11 and a weekly increase of 18 [10]. - On August 1, 2025, the closing price of SR01 was 5620, with a daily decline of 0.62% and a weekly decline of 1.51% [10]. - **Spot Prices and Regional Spreads**: - On July 29, 2025, the spot price in Nanning was 6050, with no daily or weekly change; the price in Kunming was 5915, with a weekly decrease of 5 [11]. - **Import Price Changes**: - On August 1, 2025, the in - quota import price from Brazil was 4494, with a daily increase of 36 and a weekly increase of 12; the out - of - quota price was 5710, with a daily increase of 48 and a weekly increase of 17 [12].

Report Information - Report Title: Polypropylene Risk Management Daily Report - Date: August 1, 2025 - Analysts: Dai Yifan (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0015428), Gu Hengye (Futures Practitioner License No.: F03143348) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC Permit [2011] No. 1290 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Recent macro sentiment has cooled, and polyolefins have given back some gains. The PP fundamentals have not changed much recently. Although the current PP plant maintenance rate is still high, bringing marginal reduction, the large number of new plant startups has led to new supply increments. So, even during the peak plant maintenance season, PP production remains at a high level. On the demand side, as the downstream is still in the off - season, overall demand is weak. In general, the supply - demand pressure of PP has not been fundamentally alleviated, and the upside space is still relatively limited. Future attention should be paid to the downstream demand situation of PP [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polypropylene Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for polypropylene is 7000 - 7300 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 8.48%, and the current volatility's historical percentile (3 - year) is 6.7% [2] Polypropylene Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short PP2509 futures according to inventory, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of 7250 - 7300 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell the call option PP2509C7300 with a hedging ratio of 50% and a recommended entry range of 10 - 50 to collect premiums and reduce costs [2] Procurement Management - For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory planning to purchase based on orders, they can buy PP2509 futures at present with a hedging ratio of 50% and a recommended entry range of 7000 - 7050 yuan/ton to prevent price increases and lock in procurement costs in advance. They can also sell the put option PP2509P7000 with a hedging ratio of 75% and a recommended entry range of 10 - 50 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs. If the price drops, they can lock in the spot purchase price [2] Core Contradictions - Macro sentiment cooling has led to polyolefins giving back gains. PP supply remains high due to new plant startups despite high maintenance rates, and demand is weak as the downstream is in the off - season. The supply - demand pressure is not fundamentally alleviated, and the upside space is limited [3] Negative Factors - Two sets of equipment in Daxie are expected to be put into operation in early August. Multiple plants will be put into operation from June to August, significantly increasing PP production capacity. PDH profits have recovered, and marginal plants are gradually returning. Exports are seasonally weak, and the export window is currently closed [4] Polypropylene Daily Data Futures Prices and Spreads - The basis of the polypropylene main contract on August 1, 2025, was not provided; on July 31, it was - 8 yuan/ton, and on July 25, it was - 81 yuan/ton. The daily change was 8 yuan/ton, and the weekly change was 81 yuan/ton. The prices of PP01, PP05, and PP09 contracts decreased compared to the previous day and week. The month - to - month spreads of PP1 - 5, PP5 - 9, and PP9 - 1 also changed [5][8] Spot Prices and Regional Spreads - Spot prices in North China, East China, and South China decreased compared to the previous day and week. The regional spreads between East China - North China and East China - South China also changed [8] Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads - The spreads between various non - standard and standard polypropylene products changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [8] Upstream Prices and Processing Profits - Brent crude oil price remained unchanged from the previous day but increased compared to a week ago. The US propane price, Northwest coal price, and other upstream prices changed. The processing profits of oil - based, coal - based, and other PP production methods also changed [8]

股指日报 股指期货日报 2025年8月1日 王梦颖（Z0015429）、廖臣悦 (F03120676) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 缩量下跌，两市成交额大幅回落至1.6万亿元以下 市场回顾 今日股指除中证1000指数收涨外，其余延续下跌。从资金面来看，两市成交额回落3376.85亿元。期指方 面，IM缩量上涨，其余品种均缩量下跌。 重要资讯 1. 国务院常务会议审议通过《关于深入实施"人工智能+"行动的意见》，大力推进人工智能规模化商业化 应用，推动人工智能在经济社会发展各领域加快普及、深度融合。会议部署实施个人消费贷款贴息政策与服 务业经营主体贷款贴息政策，更好激发消费潜力、提升市场活力。 2. 美国6月核心PCE物价指数同比增长2.8%，预期增长2.7%。 核心观点 股指日报期指市场观察 | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力日内涨跌幅（%） | -0.52 | -0.63 | -0.13 | 0.25 | | 成交量（万手） | 9.9438 | 5.0833 | 8.9442 | 21.2982 | ...