Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The medium - to long - term outlook for precious metals is potentially bullish, but short - term fluctuations in London gold have intensified. London gold has fallen below the 3300 mark, with key support at 3250 and resistance levels at 3300, 3350, 3370, and 3400. London silver has broken below the 37 area support, showing short - term weakness, and the support has shifted down to 36. The operation strategy remains to buy on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, the precious metals market continued its weakness. After the better - than - expected US small non - farm payrolls and Q2 GDP on Wednesday and Powell's hawkish speech, the better - than - expected US PCE and lower - than - expected weekly initial jobless claims on Thursday further cooled the September interest - rate cut expectations. The US dollar index rose above 100, which was negative for precious metals. Additionally, the US "exemption" of refined copper tariffs caused a sharp drop in US copper prices, dragging down silver prices. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3342.3 per ounce, down 0.31%; US silver 2509 contract closed at $36.79 per ounce, down 2.51%. SHFE gold 2510 main contract was at 770.28 yuan per gram, down 0.37%; SHFE silver 2510 contract was at 9008 yuan per kilogram, down 2.21% [2]. - Trump said that the US - Mexico tariff agreement would be extended by 90 days and threatened to impose a 25% tariff on Indian goods imported into the US starting from August 1st. The US core PCE price index in June was 2.8% year - on - year, reaching a four - month high [2]. 3.2 Interest - Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest - rate cut expectations have cooled. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 61.8%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 38.2%. For October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 39.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 46.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 13.6%. For December, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 17.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 42.6%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 32.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 7.9% [3]. - In terms of long - term funds, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 0.86 tons to 954.51 tons; the iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 87.58 tons to 15062.32 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 0.06 tons to 1208 tons, and the SGX silver inventory in the week ending July 25th increased by 56.4 tons to 1368.4 tons [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - This week is data - intensive. On Friday, focus on the US July non - farm payrolls report at 20:30 and the ISM manufacturing PMI at 22:00 [4]. 3.4 Precious Metals Futures and Spot Price Table - Data shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE gold main - continuous, SGX gold TD, CME gold main, SHFE silver main - continuous, SGX silver TD, CME silver main, SHFE - TD gold, SHFE - TD silver, and CME gold - silver ratio [4][5]. 3.5 Inventory and Position Table - Data presents the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE gold inventory, CME gold inventory, SHFE gold position, SPDR gold position, SHFE silver inventory, CME silver inventory, SGX silver inventory, SHFE silver position, and SLV silver position [15]. 3.6 Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary - Data includes the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, US dollar against the Chinese yuan, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot, LmeS copper 03, 10 - year US Treasury yield, 10 - year US real interest rate, and 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - Overnight oil prices declined, ending a three - day rally and correcting some risk premiums. Trump's extreme pressure may aim to promote a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, with a weak intention to block Russian oil and limited impact on the crude oil market. The short - term impact of geopolitical risk events on the crude oil market is limited and cannot reverse the overall trend. After the macro super - week, the market logic will shift more towards fundamentals. This week, focus on the August 3rd OPEC+ meeting and the subsequent reaction of the crude oil market [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.盘面动态 - As of the close, the September - delivered light crude oil futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange dropped 74 cents, closing at $69.26 per barrel, a decline of 1.06%. The September - delivered London Brent crude oil futures price fell 71 cents, closing at $72.53 per barrel, a decline of 0.97%. The night - session SC crude oil main contract closed down 0.71%, at 528 yuan per barrel [3]. 3.2.市场动态 - The EIA crude oil inventory increase in the US for the week ending July 25 was the largest since the week ending January 31, 2025, and the EIA gasoline inventory decline was the largest since the week ending April 25, 2025. In May, US oil production reached a record 13.49 million barrels per day, and the supply of crude oil and petroleum products in May both rose to the highest level since January [5]. - The US Middle East envoy met with Netanyahu to discuss issues such as a cease - fire agreement in Gaza. On July 31, the US Middle East envoy Witkoff visited Israel and met with Prime Minister Netanyahu. They will mainly discuss the Gaza cease - fire agreement, the current humanitarian situation in Gaza, and the Iranian nuclear issue. Witkoff also plans to go to Gaza [5]. - Sources said that in the past week, Indian state - owned refiners stopped buying Russian oil due to reduced discounts and Trump's tariff threats. It is necessary to focus on the shipping dynamics of Russian crude oil, as well as the changes in its in - transit crude oil and floating storage inventory. The pressure exerted by the US on Russia has begun to have an impact, but the extent and duration of this impact need further observation. Market concerns will support the crude oil market in the short term [5]. - The US core PCE inflation annual rate unexpectedly rebounded to 2.8% in June, while consumer spending almost stagnated. After the release of the June PCE indicators last night, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September further decreased, from nearly 70% to below 40%. If Trump wants to push the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, he must effectively control energy prices, especially oil prices [5]. 3.3.全球原油盘面价格及价差变动 - Provided price and spread data of various crude oils (Brent, WTI, SC, Dubai, Oman, Murban) on July 31, 30, and 24, 2025, including daily and weekly price changes and differences between different contracts [6].

金融期货早评 宏观：制造业 PMI 边际回落 【市场资讯】1）国常会：通过《关于深入实施"人工智能+"行动的意见》，实施个人消费贷 款贴息政策与服务业经营主体贷款贴息政策。2）国家互联网信息办公室就 H20 算力芯片 漏洞后门安全风险约谈英伟达公司。3）对等关税命运难测：美上诉法院关键审判开启庭辩， 法官质疑特朗普授权。4）特朗普称美墨关税协议将延长 90 天，墨西哥比索刷新日高、股 指转涨。关税僵局后，特朗普痛斥印度是"死亡经济体"。5）美联储最爱通胀指标意外回升， 美国 6 月核心 PCE 物价指数同比 2.8%，创 4 个月新高。6）日本央行维持利率不变，上调 今明两年通胀预期。植田和男：加息取决于"通胀达标"可能性，当下日元汇率并未大幅偏 离预期；日元一度跌破 150。7）世界黄金协会：央行 Q2 购金量创三年最低，ETF 接棒支 撑黄金需求。8）中国 7 月官方制造业 PMI 回落至 49.3，新订单指数回落至 49.4，非制造 业保持扩张。 【核心逻辑】7 月制造业 PMI 边际回落，明显弱于往年季节性，特别是新订单指数。制造 业经济动能也出现了边际回落，当前经济整体出现下行的压力。但不必过于悲观 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - On July 31, 2025, the stock index dropped with heavy trading volume, and the decline of the large - cap stock index was greater. The main reasons for the market decline were the hawkish remarks of Powell at the Fed's July meeting, which led to a sharp rise in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, increasing external pressure, and the release of the July manufacturing PMI by the National Bureau of Statistics, which was lower than the previous month and lower than expected. Under the double negative impacts at home and abroad, the stock index declined overall. From the perspective of futures indicators, the volume - weighted average basis of all contracts except IH decreased slightly. The overall sentiment turned pessimistic, and the correction was expected to continue. If the index continued to fall, it was recommended that long - position holders take profit and exit [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The stock index declined collectively on this day. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed down 1.82%. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets increased by 91.756 billion yuan. In the futures market, IM dropped with heavy trading volume, while the other varieties dropped with shrinking volume [4]. Important Information - The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.5% for the fifth consecutive time, in line with expectations. Fed Chairman Powell said it was too early to say whether the Fed would cut the federal funds rate in September as the financial market expected. He also mentioned that the current interest rate level was appropriate given the uncertainties in tariffs and inflation, and it was still too early to judge the impact of tariffs on inflation. - The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [5]. Strategy Recommendation - If the decline continued, long - position holders could take profit and exit [5]. Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | -1.77 | -1.44 | -1.38 | -0.88 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 15.6196 | 7.5925 | 11.9559 | 26.7774 | | Trading volume month - on - month (10,000 lots) | 1.8165 | 0.4976 | 1.4305 | 3.6495 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 27.0987 | 9.9966 | 22.7163 | 34.8264 | | Open interest month - on - month (10,000 lots) | -0.3716 | -0.3315 | -0.276 | 0.1767 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | -1.18 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | -1.73 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.25 | | Trading volume of the two markets (100 million yuan) | 19360.35 | | Trading volume month - on - month (100 million yuan) | 917.56 | [6]

国债期货日报 2025年7月31日 观点：交易盘继续持有 南华研究院 高翔（Z0016413） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 盘面点评： 具体来说，建议交易仓位继续持有，可适当上调止损确保浮盈，后续若出现回踩或者突破补上缺口，都是加仓时机。 国债期货高开高走，全天偏强运行，全线收涨。资金方面，跨月压力显现，但经过此前连续净投放，市场情 绪稳定，从资金面情绪指数来看，各机构压力并不大。公开市场今天转为净回笼，7D逆回购净回笼478亿。 资金利率盘前小幅走高，但随后持续下行，截至收盘GC001已经下至1%，流动性相当充裕。 日内消息： 1.记者注意到，在广东打响地方层面金融业反内卷第一枪后，工商银行也在大行层面率先表态。7月30日刚刚 结束的年中工作会议上，工商银行明确要求带头整治"内卷式"竞争，成为首家将反内卷列入下半年工作重点的 国有大行。 行情研判： 当前预期纠偏情绪改善，基本面延续趋势，资金面依旧宽松，多方共振支持行情转向。而技术层面，量价配合确认了短周期的双底反转走势，目前T2509价格已经基本回到7月23日（因为 煤炭超产整改引发的）跳空缺口下方，来到第一反弹点位附近。 但从日内期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The lithium ore, lithium salt, and battery cell markets are under significant inventory pressure, and the destocking process is slow. The medium - to long - term supply - demand imbalance has not been substantially alleviated [3]. - There are two short - term logics in the market: a negative feedback loop of "lithium salt price decline - ore price loosening - further lithium salt price decline" and a stepped - up price increase chain of "futures price increase - production capacity release - increased ore consumption - ore price increase" [3]. - The cost curve is flattening due to production process optimization, which drives the central price of lithium carbonate down [3]. - The futures market in the second half of the year is expected to be divided into two stages: the futures price will fluctuate upward in early Q3 due to improved macro sentiment, supply disruptions, and better - than - expected off - season performance; it will fluctuate downward in Q4 as technological upgrades are completed and production increases [3]. - There are positive factors such as improved macro sentiment and supply - side disruptions, and negative factors including high future lithium ore production expectations, continuous inventory accumulation, and technological upgrades delaying capacity clearance [3][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Data - **Futures Price Forecast**: The price range of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is predicted to be between 68,000 and 80,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 42.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 73.5% [2]. - **Futures Contract Data**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract is 68,280 yuan/ton, down 3.29% daily and 10.95% weekly; trading volume is 521,849 lots, down 34.19% daily and 70.52% weekly; open interest is 229,368 lots, down 15.91% daily and 47.48% weekly. For the LC2511 contract, the closing price is 68,600 yuan/ton, down 2.81% daily and 8.53% weekly; trading volume is 378,788 lots, down 17.16% daily and up 20.72% weekly; open interest is 195,732 lots, up 5.60% daily and 33.12% weekly [8]. - **Futures Spread Data**: The LC09 - 11 spread is - 320 yuan/ton, down 1700% daily and 119% weekly; the LC11 - 12 spread is - 520 yuan/ton, up 189% daily and down 263% weekly [11]. 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Spot Price**: The average prices of various lithium ores such as lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone have different degrees of daily and weekly changes. For example, the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) is 1,750 yuan/ton, down 1.41% daily and up 5.74% weekly [15]. - **Lithium Salt Spot Price**: The average prices of industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide also show daily and weekly fluctuations. For instance, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 69,900 yuan/ton, down 1.34% daily and up 1.45% weekly [19]. - **Lithium Industry Chain Spot Spread**: The spreads such as the difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and the difference between lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate have different daily and weekly changes. For example, the difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,100 yuan/ton, with no daily change and a 27.27% weekly increase [22]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis Data**: The basis of the lithium carbonate main continuous contract and the brand - based basis quotes of different companies have specific values. For example, the basis quote of Shengxin Lithium Energy for the LC2507 contract is 100 yuan/ton [27]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 5,545, a decrease of 7,586 from the previous day [30]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - The report shows the production profit from purchasing lithium ore, theoretical delivery profit, and import profit of lithium carbonate, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the summary requirements [33]. 3.5 Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For companies with high product inventory and concerns about inventory impairment, it is recommended to short 50% of lithium carbonate futures (LC2511) to lock in profits, sell 50% of call options, and buy out - of - the - money put options [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For companies with future procurement plans and concerns about raw material price increases, it is recommended to buy far - month lithium carbonate contracts according to the procurement plan to lock in costs, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options [2].

南华期货硅产业链企业风险管理日报 2025年07月31日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 工业硅&多晶硅期货价格区间 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 日涨跌 | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | 日涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 工业硅主力合约 | 强支撑位8300 | 41.9% | -0.09% | 96.6% | -0.2% | | 多晶硅主力合约 | 宽幅震荡 | 48.75% | 2.83% | 85.61% | 1.6% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 工业硅&多晶硅风险管理策略建议 | 行 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 为 导 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | | 向 | | | | | | | 库 | | 为了防止存货减值，根据企业库存情况，做空期货来 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - With the rising price center, some high-cost old cotton resources are flowing into the market, downstream sales are poor, and there is an expectation of a bumper harvest in the far - month. So, the upside of cotton prices is limited. However, before the new cotton is launched, the tight domestic cotton inventory will strongly support cotton prices. Attention should be paid to the implementation of domestic import quota policies, the de - stocking speed of cotton during the off - season, and the adjustment of the China - US trade agreement [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Price Forecast - The predicted monthly price range of cotton is 13,600 - 14,400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0638 and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 0.0713 [3] Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - For enterprises with high inventory worried about cotton price decline, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 14,200 - 14,400 to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (CF509C14400) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 180 - 220 to collect premiums and lower costs and lock in the spot selling price if the cotton price rises [3] Procurement Management - For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 13,600 - 13,700 to prevent the rise of procurement costs. They can also sell put options (CF509P13600) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 100 - 150 to collect premiums and lower procurement costs and lock in the spot purchase price if the cotton price falls [3] Market Analysis Bullish Factors - Due to high tariffs, this year's cotton imports have dropped significantly, reserve cotton has not been sold, and the de - stocking speed of Xinjiang cotton is fast. As of July 15, the total industrial and commercial cotton inventory in China was 3.4245 million tons, and the end - of - year supply is expected to be in a tight - balance state. Also, the post - pricing of textile mills supports cotton prices [5] Bearish Factors - Mainland spinning mills have further reduced their overall load due to squeezed spinning profits, while Xinjiang spinning mills' operation is stable, supporting rigid cotton consumption. Although the downstream finished product inventory has slightly decreased, there is still some pressure. Currently, Xinjiang's new cotton is in the full - bloom and boll - setting stage, with a fast growth progress and good overall growth, so there is an optimistic expectation for the new - year output [8] Futures Price and Spread Cotton and Cotton Yarn Futures Prices - Cotton 01 closed at 13,840, down 65 (-0.47%); Cotton 05 closed at 13,775, down 75 (-0.54%); Cotton 09 closed at 13,650, down 105 (-0.76%); Cotton yarn 01 closed at 19,710, up 10 (0.05%); Cotton yarn 05 closed at 0, down 20,100 (-100%); Cotton yarn 09 closed at 19,770, down 100 (-0.5%) [7][9] Cotton and Cotton Yarn Spreads - The cotton basis was 1,825, up 170; Cotton 01 - 05 spread was 55, down 5; Cotton 05 - 09 spread was 95, up 55; Cotton 09 - 01 spread was - 150, down 50; The cotton - yarn spread was 6,095, down 25; The domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,964, up 122; The domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 550, down 21 [10] Domestic and Foreign Cotton Price Indexes - CCI 3128B was priced at 15,580, down 29 (-0.19%); CCI 2227B was priced at 13,670, down 29 (-0.21%); CCI 2129B was priced at 15,873, down 39 (-0.25%); FCI Index S was priced at 13,930, up 18 (0.13%); FCI Index M was priced at 13,738, up 17 (0.12%); FCI Index L was priced at 13,454, up 17 (0.13%) [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View - The oil - chemical sector stood out today as other sectors weakened, due to crude oil rebound and asphalt fundamentals. The price of crude oil rebounded as the market refocused on sanctions against Russian oil and it was at the end of the peak - demand season. The so - called "anti - involution" had no obvious positive impact on domestic refineries, resulting in the reversal of the premium, which couldn't be reflected in asphalt. In the asphalt supply side, production decreased slightly as some refineries shut down or switched to producing residual oil. In terms of inventory, factory inventories decreased while social inventories decreased slowly. Speculative demand weakened, and traders started to reduce their inventories actively. The basis in Shandong and East China weakened due to the expected increase in the operating rate, and the crack spread remained high. Currently, the demand side is still in the off - season affected by rainfall, and the overall fundamentals have weakened month - on - month. In the short term, the absolute price is in a volatile trend because of the strong performance of crude oil on the cost side, and the month - spread, basis, and crack spread have all weakened to some extent. In the long - term, as construction conditions improve in the north and south in August, the construction will enter the peak season. The debt - resolution progress of local governments in 2025 is accelerating, and the funds situation has improved. As it is the final stage of the "14th Five - Year Plan", the number of projects is guaranteed, so the peak season is still worth looking forward to. The short - term "anti - involution" has little impact on the cost side of asphalt, and attention should be paid to the progress of specific measures for the asphalt industry chain. There are also rumors about the consumption tax pilot reform in an individual refinery in Shandong, and its progress should be monitored [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Asphalt Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range of the asphalt main contract is 3400 - 3750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.30% and a historical percentile of 8.95% over the past 3 years [1] 2. Asphalt Risk Management Strategy - **Inventory Management**: For companies with high finished - product inventories worried about price drops, they can short the bu2509 asphalt futures according to their inventory levels to lock in profits and cover production costs. The recommended selling ratio is 25%, and the suggested entry price range is 3650 - 3750 [1] - **Procurement Management**: For companies with low regular procurement inventories that want to purchase based on orders, they can buy the bu2509 asphalt futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The recommended buying ratio is 50%, and the suggested entry price range is 3300 - 3400 [1] 3. Asphalt Price and Basis Crack Spread - 09 Contract - **Spot Prices**: On July 31, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3785 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day and the week), the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3780 yuan/ton (unchanged), the North China spot price was 3730 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan from the previous day and the week), and the South China spot price was 3600 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan from the previous day and 10 yuan from the week) [1][5][8] - **Basis**: The Shandong spot 09 basis was 126 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan from the previous day and 57 yuan from the week), the Yangtze River Delta spot 09 basis was 121 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan from the previous day and 57 yuan from the week), the North China spot 09 basis was 71 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan from the previous day and down 47 yuan from the week), and the South China spot 09 basis was - 59 yuan/ton (up 11 yuan from the previous day and down 47 yuan from the week) [8] - **Crack Spread**: The Shandong spot crack spread against Brent was 131.7688 yuan/barrel (unchanged from the previous day and down 28.037 yuan from the week), and the futures main contract crack spread against Brent was 109.9345 yuan/barrel (up 1.5596 yuan from the previous day and down 18.1595 yuan from the week) [8] 4. Factors Affecting Asphalt Price Bullish Factors - Asphalt factory inventories are under little pressure, providing a basis for manufacturers to hold up prices [3] - There is a seasonal peak in demand [3] - The operating rate is at a low level, and there is an expectation of catch - up construction in the south [3] - The "anti - involution" atmosphere has created a strong expectation of capacity reduction [3] Bearish Factors - Recently, the arrival of Venezuelan crude oil (Merey) in China has increased [7] - The short - term demand in the south is dragged down by the plum - rain season [7] - The reduction of social inventories has slowed down, and the basis has weakened [7] - The consumption tax reform in Shandong may drive up the operating rate [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - policy's short - term positive factors are exhausted, and the market will return to fundamental dominance. The technical graph of logs is in the ascending flag consolidation stage with weakening fluctuations, and funds are continuously withdrawing. The market is oscillating around the valuation, and the recent decline has repaired the over - valued situation, with the current valuation at a neutral level. The impact of the earthquake in the Kamchatka Peninsula is minimal, and the spot price is stable. The strategy is to sell lg2509 - p - 800 on dips [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Log Price Range Forecast - The predicted monthly price range for logs is 820 - 860. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 16.28%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 67.4% [2]. 3.2 Log Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: When log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, to prevent inventory losses, enterprises can short log futures (lg2509) according to their inventory, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 850 - 875 [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, to prevent rising log prices from increasing procurement costs, enterprises can buy log futures (lg2509) at present, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 810 - 820 [2]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - The macro - policy's short - term positive factors are exhausted, and the market will return to fundamental dominance. There is an expectation gap in the policy. The technical graph is in the ascending flag consolidation stage, with weakening fluctuations and continuous capital withdrawal. The market oscillates around the valuation, and the recent decline has repaired the over - valued situation, with the current valuation at a neutral level. The earthquake in the Kamchatka Peninsula has little impact, and the spot price is stable. The strategy is to sell lg2509 - p - 800 on dips [3]. 3.4 Positive Factors - Due to continuous import losses, traders have the intention to jointly support prices [4]. 3.5 Negative Factors - **Spot and Basis**: The document provides detailed spot prices, price changes, and basis data for different specifications of logs at various ports on July 31, 2025. The basis (after conversion) is calculated as the spot price after a 108% increase in length - the main contract's disk price ± the premium or discount [5][8]. - Other negative factors include the "off - peak season" phenomenon and the continuous increase in foreign shipments [7]. 3.6 Log Data Overview - **Supply**: The radiation pine import volume in June 2025 was 1.61 million m³, a decrease of 80,000 m³ from the previous period but a 35.3% increase year - on - year [9]. - **Inventory**: As of July 25, 2025, the national port inventory was 3.17 million m³, a decrease of 120,000 m³ from the previous period and a 3.4% decrease year - on - year. The port inventory in Shandong was 1,930,000 m³, a decrease of 2,000 m³ from the previous period but a 5.8% increase year - on - year. The port inventory in Jiangsu was 1,016,400 m³, a decrease of 91,169 m³ from the previous period and a 21.4% increase year - on - year [9]. - **Demand**: As of July 25, 2025, the daily average log port outbound volume was 64,100 m³, an increase of 1,700 m³ from the previous period and a 27.2% increase year - on - year. The daily average outbound volume in Shandong was 33,900 m³, an increase of 300 m³ from the previous period and a 34.5% increase year - on - year. The daily average outbound volume in Jiangsu was 24,600 m³, an increase of 1,400 m³ from the previous period and a 31.6% increase year - on - year [9]. - **Profit**: As of August 1, 2025, the radiation pine import profit was - 82 yuan/m³, a decrease of 1 yuan/m³ from the previous period. The spruce import profit was - 95 yuan/m³, an increase of 2 yuan/m³ from the previous period [9]. - **Main Spot Prices**: The spot prices of several specifications of logs on July 31, 2025, remained unchanged from the previous day, with varying year - on - year decreases [9]. - **External Market Quotations**: The CFR on August 1, 2025, was 114 US dollars/JASm³, unchanged from the previous period and a 3.4% decrease year - on - year [9].