Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View - The oil - chemical sector stood out today as other sectors weakened, due to crude oil rebound and asphalt fundamentals. The price of crude oil rebounded as the market refocused on sanctions against Russian oil and it was at the end of the peak - demand season. The so - called "anti - involution" had no obvious positive impact on domestic refineries, resulting in the reversal of the premium, which couldn't be reflected in asphalt. In the asphalt supply side, production decreased slightly as some refineries shut down or switched to producing residual oil. In terms of inventory, factory inventories decreased while social inventories decreased slowly. Speculative demand weakened, and traders started to reduce their inventories actively. The basis in Shandong and East China weakened due to the expected increase in the operating rate, and the crack spread remained high. Currently, the demand side is still in the off - season affected by rainfall, and the overall fundamentals have weakened month - on - month. In the short term, the absolute price is in a volatile trend because of the strong performance of crude oil on the cost side, and the month - spread, basis, and crack spread have all weakened to some extent. In the long - term, as construction conditions improve in the north and south in August, the construction will enter the peak season. The debt - resolution progress of local governments in 2025 is accelerating, and the funds situation has improved. As it is the final stage of the "14th Five - Year Plan", the number of projects is guaranteed, so the peak season is still worth looking forward to. The short - term "anti - involution" has little impact on the cost side of asphalt, and attention should be paid to the progress of specific measures for the asphalt industry chain. There are also rumors about the consumption tax pilot reform in an individual refinery in Shandong, and its progress should be monitored [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Asphalt Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range of the asphalt main contract is 3400 - 3750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.30% and a historical percentile of 8.95% over the past 3 years [1] 2. Asphalt Risk Management Strategy - **Inventory Management**: For companies with high finished - product inventories worried about price drops, they can short the bu2509 asphalt futures according to their inventory levels to lock in profits and cover production costs. The recommended selling ratio is 25%, and the suggested entry price range is 3650 - 3750 [1] - **Procurement Management**: For companies with low regular procurement inventories that want to purchase based on orders, they can buy the bu2509 asphalt futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The recommended buying ratio is 50%, and the suggested entry price range is 3300 - 3400 [1] 3. Asphalt Price and Basis Crack Spread - 09 Contract - **Spot Prices**: On July 31, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3785 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day and the week), the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3780 yuan/ton (unchanged), the North China spot price was 3730 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan from the previous day and the week), and the South China spot price was 3600 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan from the previous day and 10 yuan from the week) [1][5][8] - **Basis**: The Shandong spot 09 basis was 126 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan from the previous day and 57 yuan from the week), the Yangtze River Delta spot 09 basis was 121 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan from the previous day and 57 yuan from the week), the North China spot 09 basis was 71 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan from the previous day and down 47 yuan from the week), and the South China spot 09 basis was - 59 yuan/ton (up 11 yuan from the previous day and down 47 yuan from the week) [8] - **Crack Spread**: The Shandong spot crack spread against Brent was 131.7688 yuan/barrel (unchanged from the previous day and down 28.037 yuan from the week), and the futures main contract crack spread against Brent was 109.9345 yuan/barrel (up 1.5596 yuan from the previous day and down 18.1595 yuan from the week) [8] 4. Factors Affecting Asphalt Price Bullish Factors - Asphalt factory inventories are under little pressure, providing a basis for manufacturers to hold up prices [3] - There is a seasonal peak in demand [3] - The operating rate is at a low level, and there is an expectation of catch - up construction in the south [3] - The "anti - involution" atmosphere has created a strong expectation of capacity reduction [3] Bearish Factors - Recently, the arrival of Venezuelan crude oil (Merey) in China has increased [7] - The short - term demand in the south is dragged down by the plum - rain season [7] - The reduction of social inventories has slowed down, and the basis has weakened [7] - The consumption tax reform in Shandong may drive up the operating rate [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - policy's short - term positive factors are exhausted, and the market will return to fundamental dominance. The technical graph of logs is in the ascending flag consolidation stage with weakening fluctuations, and funds are continuously withdrawing. The market is oscillating around the valuation, and the recent decline has repaired the over - valued situation, with the current valuation at a neutral level. The impact of the earthquake in the Kamchatka Peninsula is minimal, and the spot price is stable. The strategy is to sell lg2509 - p - 800 on dips [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Log Price Range Forecast - The predicted monthly price range for logs is 820 - 860. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 16.28%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 67.4% [2]. 3.2 Log Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: When log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, to prevent inventory losses, enterprises can short log futures (lg2509) according to their inventory, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 850 - 875 [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, to prevent rising log prices from increasing procurement costs, enterprises can buy log futures (lg2509) at present, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 810 - 820 [2]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - The macro - policy's short - term positive factors are exhausted, and the market will return to fundamental dominance. There is an expectation gap in the policy. The technical graph is in the ascending flag consolidation stage, with weakening fluctuations and continuous capital withdrawal. The market oscillates around the valuation, and the recent decline has repaired the over - valued situation, with the current valuation at a neutral level. The earthquake in the Kamchatka Peninsula has little impact, and the spot price is stable. The strategy is to sell lg2509 - p - 800 on dips [3]. 3.4 Positive Factors - Due to continuous import losses, traders have the intention to jointly support prices [4]. 3.5 Negative Factors - **Spot and Basis**: The document provides detailed spot prices, price changes, and basis data for different specifications of logs at various ports on July 31, 2025. The basis (after conversion) is calculated as the spot price after a 108% increase in length - the main contract's disk price ± the premium or discount [5][8]. - Other negative factors include the "off - peak season" phenomenon and the continuous increase in foreign shipments [7]. 3.6 Log Data Overview - **Supply**: The radiation pine import volume in June 2025 was 1.61 million m³, a decrease of 80,000 m³ from the previous period but a 35.3% increase year - on - year [9]. - **Inventory**: As of July 25, 2025, the national port inventory was 3.17 million m³, a decrease of 120,000 m³ from the previous period and a 3.4% decrease year - on - year. The port inventory in Shandong was 1,930,000 m³, a decrease of 2,000 m³ from the previous period but a 5.8% increase year - on - year. The port inventory in Jiangsu was 1,016,400 m³, a decrease of 91,169 m³ from the previous period and a 21.4% increase year - on - year [9]. - **Demand**: As of July 25, 2025, the daily average log port outbound volume was 64,100 m³, an increase of 1,700 m³ from the previous period and a 27.2% increase year - on - year. The daily average outbound volume in Shandong was 33,900 m³, an increase of 300 m³ from the previous period and a 34.5% increase year - on - year. The daily average outbound volume in Jiangsu was 24,600 m³, an increase of 1,400 m³ from the previous period and a 31.6% increase year - on - year [9]. - **Profit**: As of August 1, 2025, the radiation pine import profit was - 82 yuan/m³, a decrease of 1 yuan/m³ from the previous period. The spruce import profit was - 95 yuan/m³, an increase of 2 yuan/m³ from the previous period [9]. - **Main Spot Prices**: The spot prices of several specifications of logs on July 31, 2025, remained unchanged from the previous day, with varying year - on - year decreases [9]. - **External Market Quotations**: The CFR on August 1, 2025, was 114 US dollars/JASm³, unchanged from the previous period and a 3.4% decrease year - on - year [9].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The BPI and BSI freight rate indices continued to decline, and the BHSI also joined the decline. Although the BCI freight rate index rose, its increase narrowed, leading to a narrowing increase in the BDI composite freight rate index. The increase in the shipment of agricultural products and new shipments of resources such as iron ore and bauxite boosted the demand for capesize vessels, supporting the freight rates of capesize vessels. However, the decrease in the shipment of industrial products dragged down the demand for panamax and handy vessels, causing their prices to weaken [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 2.1 BDI Freight Rate Index Analysis - On July 29, compared with the previous week, the increases in the BDI composite freight rate index and the BCI freight rate index narrowed. The BPI, BSI, and BHSI indices adjusted, with the decline of the BPI index widening. Specifically, the BDI composite freight rate index closed at 2,109 points, a week - on - week increase of 3.64%; the BCI index closed at 3,476 points, a week - on - week increase of 13.56%; the BPI index closed at 1,741 points, a week - on - week decrease of 8.8%; the BSI index closed at 1,281 points, a week - on - week decrease of 3.61%; and the BHSI index closed at 677 points, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15% [4]. 2.2 FDI Far East Dry Bulk Freight Rate Index - On July 29, the FDI index declined across the board. In the routes of the super - handy vessel rent index, the rent of the Indonesia - to - China voyage charter route increased by 0.11% month - on - month. The FDI composite freight rate index closed at 1,321.5 points, a month - on - month decrease of 0.81%; the FDI rent index closed at 1,610.35 points, a month - on - month decrease of 0.92%. The rent indices of different ship types also showed varying degrees of decline [8]. 3.1 Daily Shipping Country Shipping and Vessel Usage Quantity - On July 31, among the major agricultural product shipping countries, Brazil used 43 vessels for shipping, Russia used 14 vessels, Argentina used 30 vessels, and Australia used 5 vessels. Among the major industrial product shipping countries, Australia used 51 vessels, Guinea used 27 vessels, Indonesia used 24 vessels, Russia used 27 vessels, South Africa used 18 vessels, Brazil used 11 vessels, and the United States used 13 vessels [16]. 3.2 Daily Shipment Volume and Vessel Usage Analysis - In terms of agricultural product shipments, 30 vessels were used for corn, 22 for wheat, 20 for soybeans, 11 for soybean meal, and 12 for sugar. In terms of industrial product shipments, 93 vessels were used for coal, 75 for iron ore, and 15 for other dry goods. By ship type, agricultural product shipments required the most post - panamax vessels (44), followed by super - handy vessels (22) and handy vessels (23). Industrial product shipments required the most capesize vessels (76), followed by post - panamax vessels (60) and super - handy vessels (54) [17]. 4. Main Port Ship Quantity Tracking - The weekly data showed that the number of ships in Chinese, Indonesian, and South African ports continued to increase month - on - month. From July 1 to July 30, the number of dry - bulk ships in Chinese ports increased by 13; the number of ships in Australian ports decreased by 11; the number of ships in Indonesian ports increased by 4; and the number of ships in Brazilian and South African ports remained unchanged [17][18]. 5. Relationship between Freight and Commodity Prices - On July 29, Brazilian soybeans were priced at $40/ton, and the near - term shipping quote was 3,934.19 yuan/ton. On July 28, the latest quote for the BCI C10_14 route freight was $26,118/day, and the latest quote for the iron ore CIF price was $114.6/thousand tons. On July 28, the latest quote for the BPI P3A_03 route freight was $13,528/day, and on July 29, the latest quote for the steam coal CIF price was 532.98 yuan/ton. On July 28, the handy vessel freight rate index was quoted at 680.8 points, and on August 1, the ACFR quote for 4 - meter radiata pine was $114/cubic meter [23].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term bullish factors are exhausted, sentiment falls, and pricing will return to fundamental - led during the policy vacuum period. The market has an expectation gap with the statement of the Politburo meeting. Fundamentally, pulp supply and inventory are at high levels, production profit and operating rate of four major papers are low, with new production capacity put into operation, and there is no long - term significant increase in demand expected. Although there is a seasonal boost in demand in August, the downstream purchasing intention is not positive. The price is expected to fluctuate after a decline, and it is recommended to be cautious about short - selling and to wait and see [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Paper Pulp Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for pulp is 4900 - 5400 yuan/ton, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 19.03%, and the current volatility's 3 - year historical percentile is 58.0% [3] Paper Pulp Hedging Strategy - For inventory management, when the coniferous pulp inventory is high and there is a concern about price decline, enterprises with long spot exposure can short pulp futures (sp2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at the entry range of 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs [3] - For procurement management, when the inventory of papermaking enterprises is low and they want to purchase according to orders, enterprises with short spot exposure can buy pulp futures (sp2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at the entry range of 4900 - 5100 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs in advance [3] Core Contradiction - The main contract closed at 5232 (-134), a decline of - 2.5%. Spot prices in Shandong, such as for Silver Star, Russian Needle, and Goldfish, all decreased. The policy vacuum period is coming, and pricing will return to fundamentals. There is an expectation gap in the Politburo meeting statement. Currently, pulp supply and inventory are high, production profit and operating rate of four major papers are low, and there is new production capacity. Although there is a seasonal boost in demand in August, the downstream purchasing intention is not positive. The price is expected to fluctuate after a decline, and it is recommended to be cautious about short - selling and to wait and see [4] 利多解读 (Likely Positive Factors) - A significant strengthening of the US dollar exchange rate [5] 利空解读 (Likely Negative Factors) - Overseas pulp quotes continue to decline [5] Paper Pulp Quote Related - Futures contracts such as SP2509, SP2511, and sp2601 all showed price declines on July 30 - 31, 2025. CFR quotes for coniferous and broad - leaf pulp had different changes. Domestic spot prices of various types of pulp and domestic finished paper average prices also had different degrees of price changes [6][9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The impact of the news on Shanghai copper is limited, and COMEX copper will move towards the price before the tariff increase [3] - In the short term, the spread between COMEX copper and LME and SHFE copper will still fluctuate, and the market needs 1 - 2 trading days to determine a reasonable spread range [7] - The price of Shanghai copper is still closely linked to LME copper, and its price trend depends on global macro - market policies and expected changes [7] Group 3: Summaries Based on Related Contents Tariff Policy and Copper Price Changes - Trump announced that starting this Friday, a 50% import tariff will be imposed on copper tubes, copper fittings, and other semi - finished copper products, and it will be extended to copper - intensive finished products such as cables and electrical components, but core upstream products like electrolytic copper are excluded [1] - Before the news, the US copper price was up to 28% higher than the London copper futures due to market expectations. After the news, the COMEX copper price in the US dropped by over 17%, and the spread with LME copper was quickly narrowed [1] Fed's Action and Copper Price - The slight decline in Shanghai copper price on Wednesday night was mainly due to the rise of the US dollar index, which was mostly caused by the Fed's actions. The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5% in July, with some members in favor of a rate cut. The description of economic activity was changed, and the market's expectation of a September rate cut was dampened [3] Reasons for COMEX Copper Price Drop - The cancellation of the US refined copper import tariff led to the expected decline in COMEX copper price. The US imports nearly half of its about 160 million tons of annual refined copper consumption due to insufficient smelting capacity. The characteristics of the copper smelting industry conflict with the goals of large US capital companies, which is also an obstacle to Trump's encouragement of manufacturing return [6] - Due to the long - term speculation on copper tariffs, the COMEX copper inventory has reached 250,000 tons, almost twice that of LME. After the tariff policy change, the large amount of copper in the US cannot be digested in the short term, resulting in a large decline in COMEX copper price [6] Future Outlook - The high copper inventory in the COMEX market may not flow out, and the quantity of imported copper in transit and in the fourth quarter in the US may be greatly affected [7] - Global tariff policies' impact on demand may cast a shadow over copper prices [7]

金融期货早评 宏观：政策基调仍是积极有为 【市场资讯】1）中共中央政治局召开会议，决定召开二十届四中全会，分析研究当前经济 形势和经济工作，中共中央总书记习近平主持会议。2）育儿补贴是新中国成立以来首次大 范围、普惠式、直接性向群众发放的民生保障现金补贴，初步预算 900 亿元、8 月下旬申 领。3）美联储连续五次会议按兵不动，但两票委支持降息，指出经济增长放缓；鲍威尔未 就 9 月降息给指引，强调关税和通胀的不确定性，称就业市场未走弱。特朗普对进口半成 品铜等征 50%关税，但不含阴极铜和精炼铜，纽铜暴跌 20%。4）美国暂停对低价值货物的 最低限度免税待遇。5）特朗普称美国将对印度施加 25%关税及"惩罚"，指印方是俄罗斯能 源大买家。特朗普宣布与韩国达成全面贸易协议，征收 15%关税，韩国将向美国提供 3500 亿美元投资，由美国拥有和控制。特朗普签署行政命令，将对巴西征收 50%关税。6）美国 Q2 实际 GDP 年化季环比初值 3%好于预期，PCE 物价指数 2.5%。美国 7 月 ADP 就业人数增 加 10.4 万人超预期，但雇主对招聘决策趋于谨慎。欧元区二季度躲过衰退，GDP 超预期增 长 0 ...

Report Date - July 30, 2025 [3] Market Review - Except for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index, all other stock indices closed down today. The trading volume of the two markets increased by 4.1109 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IF and IH increased in volume, while IC and IM decreased in volume [4] Important Information - China and the US will continue to extend the suspension of 24% of the US reciprocal tariffs and China's countermeasures for 90 days [5] - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee meeting stated that monetary policy should maintain ample liquidity and promote a decline in the comprehensive social financing cost [5] - The Political Bureau emphasized that macro - policies should continue to exert force and increase force in a timely manner [5] - The Political Bureau called for in - depth implementation of special actions to boost consumption, cultivating new growth points in service consumption while expanding commodity consumption [5] Core View - Today, stock indices showed mixed performance. The large - cap stock indices were relatively strong, with the dividend index leading the rise. Market sentiment was cautious, and the trading volume of the two markets increased slightly. GC001 rose by over 7%. Tightening marginal market liquidity led to relatively weak performance of small - and medium - cap stock indices. After the Central Political Bureau meeting in the afternoon, the stock indices declined in advance. This was due to the market having pre - traded the positive expectations of the meeting, and when the meeting was officially held, the positive news was exhausted, causing the stock indices to decline. Overall, there was no information exceeding expectations in this meeting, so the stock indices rebounded slightly at the end of the session but the amplitude was limited. Today, the volume - weighted average basis of each futures index variety decreased slightly, while the trading volume and open interest increased. It is expected that the stock indices will undergo a short - term adjustment, but the adjustment range will be small, and the overall upward trend will remain unchanged [5] Strategy Recommendation - Hold long positions and wait and see [5] Futures Index Market Observation | Variety | Main Contract Intraday Change (%) | Trading Volume (10,000 lots) | Trading Volume MoM (10,000 lots) | Open Interest (10,000 lots) | Open Interest MoM (10,000 lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF | 0.04 | 13.8031 | 4.0368 | 27.4703 | 1.5183 | | IH | 0.28 | 7.0949 | 2.4802 | 10.3281 | 0.8559 | | IC | - 0.42 | 10.5254 | 1.7161 | 22.9923 | 0.5142 | | IM | - 0.43 | 23.1279 | 4.273 | 34.6497 | 1.6585 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Stock Exchange Change (%) | 0.17 | | Shenzhen Stock Exchange Change (%) | - 0.77 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.48 | | Trading Volume of the Two Markets (billion yuan) | 184.4279 | | Trading Volume MoM (billion yuan) | 4.1109 | [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views Industrial Silicon - In the second half of the year, the industrial silicon industry is in a cycle of accelerating the exit of backward production capacity and will enter the de - stocking process. The supply pressure will be continuously released with the implementation of production plans in Southwest China during the wet season. The downstream demand is expected to strengthen, but if the integration of the photovoltaic industry makes substantial progress, it may suppress the demand for industrial silicon in the future. Overall, the price of industrial silicon will show a wide - range oscillation trend [4]. Polysilicon - In the second half of the year, the polysilicon market is at a stage where the fundamental logic and the "anti - involution" logic alternate. From the fundamental perspective, the expected reduction in electricity prices and the expansion of profits may prompt enterprises to increase production capacity, while the demand increment in the second half of the year is limited, and the inventory pressure is high. From the "anti - involution" logic, effective integration agreements or coordinated production - reduction measures may improve the industry situation and drive up prices [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Futures Data - The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract is 9285 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.09% and a weekly decline of 2.52%. The SI2511 contract's closing price is 9280 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.11% and a weekly decline of 0.91%. The SI09 - 11 month - spread is 5 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 93.75% and a weekly decline of 96.88% [16][18]. Spot Data - The prices of 553 and 421 industrial silicon in various regions have increased to varying degrees. For example, the price of East China 553 is 10000 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.04%. The East China 421 - 553 spread is 250 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 28.57% [20]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The total number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts is 50082 hands, a decrease of 0.98% from the previous period. The warehouse receipts in some delivery warehouses have also changed, such as a 3.57% decrease in the Xinjiang delivery warehouse [28]. Polysilicon Futures Data - The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract is 54705 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 7.68% and a weekly increase of 9.24%. The PS2511 contract's closing price is 54880 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 7.73% and a weekly increase of 10.30%. The PS09 - 11 month - spread is - 175 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 29.63% and a weekly decline of 153.85% [31][34]. Spot Data - The prices of N - type polysilicon and its various specifications remain unchanged. The N - type polysilicon price index is 44.7 yuan/kg. The price of N - type silicon wafers has increased, with the N - type silicon wafer price index rising to 1.2 yuan/piece, a 5% increase [38][40]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts Data - The basis of the polysilicon main contract is - 10005 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 63.88% and a weekly increase of 65.92%. The total number of polysilicon warehouse receipts is 3070, remaining unchanged [44][47]. Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high product inventory and inventory impairment risks, they can short futures, sell call options, and buy out - of - the - money put options to lock in profits and prevent inventory impairment [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with production plans and the risk of rising raw material prices, they can buy forward futures contracts, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options to lock in procurement costs [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main coal and coking contracts hit the daily limit continuously, and the short - term price deviated from the fundamentals. The Dalian Commodity Exchange took position - limit measures for coking coal. The market sentiment cooled down significantly at the beginning of the week, but the overall upward trend remained unchanged. The "anti - involution" policy expectation supported commodity prices, and the pre - parade production restrictions provided a floor for the prices of the black series. In the short term, coal and coking prices were likely to rise rather than fall. It was necessary to be vigilant against the callback risk caused by the macro - policy falling short of expectations. In terms of operation, due to the intense capital game, it was recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, and to focus on the reverse spread of coking coal 9 - 1 for arbitrage [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Strategy - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for coking coal is 1030 - 1300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 32.68% and a historical percentile of 63.87%. For coke, the price range is 1350 - 1800, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.37% and a historical percentile of 49.13% [3]. - **Risk Management Strategy**: For the arbitrage scenario of inter - month arbitrage with no spot exposure, it is recommended to short the spread between coking coal contracts 9 - 1 (jm2509&jm2601), with a selling direction and a suggested entry range of (-40, -30) [3]. 3.2 Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report - **Inventory Changes**: On July 29, 2025, compared with July 28, 2025, the inventory of rebar increased by 594 tons to 85034 tons; the inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased by 590 tons to 57772 tons; the inventory of iron ore remained unchanged at 3400 hands; the inventory of coking coal decreased by 500 hands to 0 hands; the inventory of coke remained unchanged at 760 hands; the inventory of ferrosilicon decreased by 6 sheets to 22003 sheets; and the inventory of silicomanganese decreased by 454 sheets to 78736 sheets [3]. 3.3 Analysis of Core Contradictions - **Market Trend**: The short - term price of coal and coking deviated from the fundamentals, but the overall upward trend remained. The "anti - involution" policy expectation and pre - parade production restrictions supported the prices, making them likely to rise. However, there was a risk of callback due to macro - policy falling short of expectations. It was recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and focus on the reverse spread of coking coal 9 - 1 for arbitrage [4]. 3.4 Interpretation of Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: The expectation of "anti - involution" in coal mines still exists, and the production increase space of mines in the second half of the year may be limited; downstream steel mills have good profits, providing a basis for raw material price increases; the Fourth Plenary Session in October [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: The import profit of overseas coal has recovered, and there will be pressure on subsequent arrivals; the customs clearance of Mongolian coal has resumed, with more than 1000 trucks per day currently; off - balance - sheet inventory of futures and spot has flowed into the market, putting pressure on spot prices [5]. 3.5 Coal and Coking Prices - **Warehouse Receipt Cost and Basis**: The document provides the warehouse receipt cost and basis data of coking coal (including different varieties such as Tangshan Mongolian 5) and coke (including different delivery methods and regions). For example, the warehouse receipt cost of Tangshan Mongolian 5 coking coal is 1008, and the main basis is - 109.5 [7]. - **Spot Price**: The document shows the spot prices of various coal and coking products on July 30, 2025, July 29, 2025, and July 23, 2025, as well as their daily and weekly changes. For example, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal is 1450 yuan/ton, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 70 yuan/ton [8]. - **Profit**: Data on import profits of various types of coal (such as Mongolian coal, Australian coal, and Russian coal), export profits of coke, and coking profits are provided. For example, the import profit of long - term contract Mongolian coal is 368 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 28 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 162 yuan/ton [8].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The current lithium ore, lithium salt, and battery cell markets are under significant inventory pressure, and the de - stocking process is slow. The medium - to - long - term supply - demand imbalance has not been substantially alleviated [3]. - There are two short - term logics in the market. In the price decline cycle, there is a negative feedback loop of "lithium salt price drop - ore price decline - lithium salt price drop again". When the futures rebound due to macro expectations and supply - side disturbances, a "step - by - step" upward chain of "futures price increase - capacity release - increased ore consumption - ore price increase" is formed [3]. - The cost curve is flattening due to production process optimization, which drives the downward shift of the lithium carbonate price center [3]. - In the second half of the year, the futures market is expected to be divided into two stages: the futures price will fluctuate upward at the beginning of the third quarter due to improved macro - sentiment, supply disturbances, and better - than - expected off - season performance; in the fourth quarter, the futures price is expected to fluctuate downward as technological transformation is completed and production is concentrated [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Data - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is predicted to be between 68,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 42.2% and a historical percentile of 73.5% over three years [2]. - **Contract Data**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 70,600 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan (-0.34%) from the previous day and up 1,220 yuan (1.76%) from the previous week. The trading volume is 792,909 lots, up 48,749 lots (6.55%) from the previous day and down 541,250 lots (-40.57%) from the previous week. The open interest is 272,753 lots, down 27,867 lots (-9.27%) from the previous day and down 89,301 lots (-24.67%) from the previous week [8]. - **Month - spread Data**: The LC09 - 11 month - spread is 280 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and down 480 yuan (-63%) from the previous week. The LC11 - 12 month - spread is - 180 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and down 20 yuan (13%) from the previous week [11]. 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore**: The average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2 - 2.5%) is 1,775 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan (10.59%) from the previous week; the average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 5 - 5.5%) is 5,735 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan (-1.55%) from the previous day and up 275 yuan (5.04%) from the previous week. The average price of lithium spodumene (Li₂O: 6%, Brazilian CIF) is 780 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars (1.96%) from the previous week [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide**: The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 70,850 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan (-0.21%) from the previous day and up 2,050 yuan (2.98%) from the previous week. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 72,950 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan (-0.27%) from the previous day and up 2,500 yuan (3.55%) from the previous week [18]. - **Price Spread**: The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan (-2.33%) from the previous day and up 450 yuan (27.27%) from the previous week [21]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis**: The basis data of lithium carbonate shows different values for different brands. For example, the basis of Shengxin Lithium Energy (LI₂CO₃≥99.8%, LC2507) is 100 yuan [26]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 12,276, unchanged from the previous day. Some warehouses, such as Wugang Wuxi and Jiangsu Bennigang Port, had a decrease in warehouse receipts [29][30]. 3.4 Cost and Profit The report shows the production profit of purchasing lithium ore externally, theoretical delivery profit, and import profit of lithium carbonate, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the summary part of this output [32]. 3.5 Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high product inventory and fear of inventory impairment, it is recommended to short lithium carbonate futures (LC2511) to lock in finished - product profits at a recommended ratio of 50%, sell call options, and buy out - of - the - money put options [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with future procurement plans and fear of raw material price increases, it is recommended to buy long - term lithium carbonate contracts according to the procurement plan to lock in procurement costs, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options [2].