Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Daily Report on Risk Management of Pig Enterprises - Date: August 19, 2025 - Author: Dai Hongxu (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0021819) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The current supply increase trend in the pig market is obvious, and both the industry and funds are aware of it. The futures market has priced in the expectation of oversupply. The fundamental situation remains one of oversupply, while policy expectations provide an opportunity for arbitrage to hedge risks [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Price Range Forecast - The strong support level for the main contract price is 13,400. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 10.94%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility over 3 years is 0.75% [2]. 3.2 Pig Enterprise Risk Management Strategy Recommendations Inventory Management - For enterprises with high product inventory and concerns about inventory impairment, they can short - sell LH2511 pig futures at a recommended ratio of 20% to lock in finished - product profits, sell call options (either over - the - counter or exchange - traded) at a 20% ratio, and buy out - of - the - money put options [2]. Procurement Management - For enterprises with future procurement plans and concerns about rising raw material prices, they can buy pig forward contracts according to the procurement plan to lock in procurement costs, sell put options (either over - the - counter or exchange - traded) according to the procurement plan, and buy out - of - the - money call options [2]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - Frequent policy disturbances may affect the long - term supply of pigs. The supply increase trend is well - recognized, and the futures market has reflected the oversupply expectation. The fundamental situation is oversupply, and policy expectations offer an opportunity for arbitrage [3]. 3.4利多解读 - No information provided in the report. 3.5利空解读 - Positive factors: Improved macro - sentiment boosts market confidence, the standard - fat price spread is at a relatively high level in the same period of history, and there is a medium - to - long - term expectation of production capacity reduction from the policy side [5]. - Negative factors: The inventory of breeding sows remains high, the inventory of large - scale enterprises is at a three - year high, the slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises remains high with losses in slaughtering profit, and downstream terminal consumption is weak [5]. 3.6 Pig Spot Prices - The national average pig spot price is 13.62 yuan/kg, with a daily increase of 0.01 yuan and a growth rate of 0.07%. Prices vary by region, such as 13.63 yuan/kg in Henan (up 0.04 yuan, 0.29%), 13.65 yuan/kg in Hunan (down 0.02 yuan, - 0.15%), etc. [8]. 3.7 Pig Futures Prices - The closing prices of different pig futures contracts are as follows: Pig 01 is 14,200 yuan/ton, Pig 03 is 13,330 yuan/ton, Pig 05 is 13,810 yuan/ton, Pig 07 is 14,260 yuan/ton, Pig 09 is 13,780 yuan/ton, and Pig 11 is 13,900 yuan/ton, all with no daily change [9]. 3.8 Pig Price Spreads and Basis - For example, the spread of LH01 - 03 is 870 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (- 2.25%); the basis of Henan - 01 contract is - 570 yuan/ton, with no change [17][19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The overall market remains loose. In the Shandong market, the resumption of production at Shandong Tianhong and Zibo Xintai, along with the downstream PO maintenance at Wanhua Penglai, has increased the supply of propylene, weakening the spot price. Other markets have shown little change [3]. - There are maintenance plans for Wanhua Penglai's 900,000 - ton PDH and Jinneng's 900,000 - ton PDH in the second half of the month, and the PP line at Jingbo is expected to resume production in late August, narrowing the supply - demand gap in the Shandong market [4]. - The cost of crude oil has been falling for several days, and the price of external propane is under pressure at a high export level [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Propylene Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about propylene price drops, for a long spot position, it is recommended to short - allocate propylene futures (PL2601) at high prices with a 50% hedging ratio in the range of 6600 - 6700 to lock in profits. Also, selling call options (PL2601C6800) with a 50% ratio in the range of 120 - 160 can collect premiums to reduce costs and lock in the selling price if the spot price rises [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders (short spot position), it is recommended to buy propylene futures (PL2601) at low prices with a 25% hedging ratio in the range of 6250 - 6350 to lock in procurement costs. Selling put options (PL2601P6000) with a 25% ratio in the range of 50 - 60 can collect premiums to reduce procurement costs and lock in the purchase price if the propylene price drops [2]. Industry Data Upstream Prices - Brent crude closed at $65.42, down $0.47 from the previous day and $0.69 from the previous week; WTI crude closed at $62, down $0.58 from the previous day and $1.08 from the previous week [5]. - Other upstream prices such as MOPJ, NWE NAP, etc., also showed different degrees of change [5]. Mid - stream Prices - FOB South Korea remained at 745, unchanged from the previous day and up 2 from the previous week; FOB US was at 675.16, down 2.7558 from the previous day and the same from the previous week; CFR China remained at 775, unchanged from the previous day and down 3 from the previous week [5]. - Domestic mid - stream prices in regions like East China, Shandong, and Northeast also had corresponding changes [5]. Downstream Prices - Polypropylene powder was at 6870, unchanged from the previous day and down 60 from the previous week; polypropylene pellets were at 7000, down 25 from the previous day and the same from the previous week. Other downstream products also showed price fluctuations [5]. Profits - Main refinery profit was 832.62, down 106.23 from the previous record; MTO monomer profit was - 180.83, unchanged from the previous day and up 62.50 from the previous week. Different profit indicators in the mid - upstream and downstream showed various trends [5]. Price Spreads - PL01 - 02 was - 56, down 7 from the previous day and 3 from the previous week; PP01 - PL01 was 612, up 15 from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week. Different price spreads also had corresponding changes [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Macroeconomics - Domestically, although the economic growth rate is showing a marginal slowdown, there is no need for excessive anxiety. A package of economic - stabilizing policies are gradually taking effect, and fiscal expenditure is accelerating. The trend of future economic data remains uncertain and requires continuous tracking of high - frequency data [1]. - Overseas, the possibility of a September interest rate cut remains uncertain. Attention should be focused on changes in US economic data and the policy signals released by Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting [2]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index**: The stock market is in a stage of long - short game. Yesterday, the stock market as a whole pulled back, and the pressure line of the index was not successfully broken. If the trading volume narrows in the future, the decline of small - cap indexes may also widen. Short - term attention should be paid to market sentiment and trading volume adjustment near key points [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market showed a weak rebound on Tuesday. If the stock market continues to fluctuate, it will be beneficial for the bond market to stabilize. However, if the stock market rises after consolidation, it will suppress the bond market. It remains to be seen whether the bond market can bottom out [3]. - **Container Shipping**: The freight index (European Line) futures prices showed a trend of first decline and then rebound. EC is likely to continue to fluctuate, and some contracts may rebound at low levels [4][6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Medium - to long - term trends may be bullish, while short - term trends are weak. The strategy is to buy on dips [7][9]. - **Copper**: Prices are mainly in a range - bound state, and it is recommended to make low - level purchases [10]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate; alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile; casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate. It is advisable to consider long - alloy and short - aluminum arbitrage when the price difference widens [11][13]. - **Zinc**: Prices are in a weak state, and short - term trading is mainly range - bound. Consider selling the outer market and buying the inner market for arbitrage [13]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Prices continue to correct, but there is still fundamental support [14]. - **Tin**: Prices are mainly in a range - bound state, with a relatively strong bias [15][16]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Polysilicon is expected to be in a range - bound and slightly bullish state, and industrial silicon will also be boosted [16][17]. - **Lead**: Prices have limited upside and downside potential and are mainly in a range - bound state [17]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The fundamentals of steel are weakening, with supply increasing and demand decreasing, and inventory accumulation accelerating. Steel prices are expected to be in a range - bound and weakening state [20][21]. - **Iron Ore**: The market is trading on weak demand rather than production restrictions. Iron ore prices are expected to be in a range - bound state [21]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coal - coke market may fluctuate widely with market sentiment. In the future, attention should be paid to the inventory changes of finished steel products [22][23]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: Supply pressure is increasing, and prices may decline. It is recommended to wait and see [23][24]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical support is weakening, and fundamental bearish factors are accumulating. There is an increased risk of a medium - term downward break, and short - term geopolitical developments need to be tracked [25][26]. - **LPG**: The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the current situation is mainly a game in the near - term contracts [26][28]. - **PTA - PX**: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and it is recommended to widen the PTA processing margin on dips [29][31]. - **Methanol**: Wait for the opportunity to go long. It is advisable to consider laying out long positions in the far - month contracts after port cargo diversion or an increase in storage fees [32][33]. - **PP**: Prices are in a weak range - bound state. The future trend depends on demand changes [34][35]. - **PE**: Prices are in a range - bound state in the short term, and the future trend depends on the progress of downstream demand recovery [36][37]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Prices are in a range - bound state. For styrene, short - term unilateral short - selling should be cautious, and consider narrowing the price difference between pure benzene and styrene on rallies [37][39]. - **Fuel Oil**: Prices remain weak, and the short - term driving force is downward [39][40]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The crack spread is strengthening, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [40][41]. - **Asphalt**: The price center has shifted downward. In the short term, the fundamentals have weakened, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the progress of specific "anti - involution" measures for the asphalt industry chain [42][43]. - **Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: RU2501 is expected to be in a weak range - bound state. Pay attention to the support level around 15,500. Consider widening the price difference between deep - colored and light - colored rubber on dips [43][45]. - **Urea**: Prices are in a pattern with support below and pressure above, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,650 and 1,850 [46][47]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to the price fluctuations of coal and raw salt [47][48]. - **Glass**: The market is in a weak equilibrium state. Pay attention to policy instructions and short - term emotional changes [49]. - **Caustic Soda**: Pay attention to the improvement of downstream demand and the enthusiasm for downstream inventory replenishment [50]. - **Pulp**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [50][51]. - **Logs**: Prices are in a reasonable range - bound state, with limited possibility of significant price changes [51]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomics - **Domestic**: The cumulative growth rate of the national general public budget from January to July turned positive for the first time, and stamp duty increased by 20.7%. Fiscal expenditure is accelerating, and economic - stabilizing policies are taking effect [1]. - **Overseas**: The possibility of a September interest rate cut in the US remains uncertain. The Jackson Hole Annual Meeting is an important window to observe policy trends [2]. Financial Futures Stock Index - **Market Review**: Yesterday, the stock index pulled back with reduced trading volume, and small - cap indexes had relatively smaller decline rates. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 175.794 billion yuan [3]. - **Important Information**: From September 1, new conditions for personal pension withdrawals will be added [3]. - **Core Logic**: The index pressure line was not broken, and the large - cap index declined more. If trading volume narrows, small - cap indexes may also decline more [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: On Tuesday, bond futures fluctuated at a low level and finally closed up across the board, showing a weak rebound [3]. - **Core Logic**: The central bank made large - scale injections, and the bond market got a breather due to the stock market's consolidation. Whether the bond market can bottom out remains to be seen [3]. Container Shipping - **Market Review**: Yesterday, the container shipping index (European Line) futures prices first declined slightly and then rebounded [4][6]. - **Important Information**: Hamas made concessions on the cease - fire plan, and some shipping companies adjusted their European Line quotes [4][5]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical risks decreased, but the reduction in the decline of MSK's European Line spot - cabin quotes was positive for prices. EC is likely to continue to fluctuate [4][6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver** - **Market Review**: On Tuesday, the precious metals market was in a weak state. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3,358.9 per ounce, down 0.57%; US silver 2509 contract closed at $37.33 per ounce, down 1.84% [7]. - **Core Logic**: Market focus is on the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting. Long - term trends may be bullish, while short - term trends are weak [7][9]. - **Copper** - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper index was in a range - bound state on Tuesday, with low trading volume and stable decline in open interest [10]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term prices are likely to continue to fluctuate, and the previous support level can be raised [10]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain** - **Market Review**: The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,545 yuan per ton, down 0.19% [10]. - **Core Logic**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate; alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile; casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate [11][13]. - **Zinc** - **Market Review**: The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai zinc closed at 22,205 yuan per ton, down 0.69% [13]. - **Core Logic**: Supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, demand is weak, and there is a risk of short - term range - bound trading [13]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel** - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel closed at 120,330 yuan per ton, down 0.37%; the main contract of stainless steel closed at 12,885 yuan per ton, down 1.07% [14]. - **Core Logic**: Prices continue to correct, but there is still fundamental support [14]. - **Tin** - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin index strengthened in the afternoon on Tuesday, closing at 26.8 yuan per ton [14]. - **Core Logic**: Prices are mainly in a range - bound state, with a relatively strong bias [15][16]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon** - **Market Review**: On Tuesday, the main contract of industrial silicon futures closed at 8,625 yuan per ton, up 0.23% [16]. - **Core Logic**: Polysilicon is expected to be in a range - bound and slightly bullish state, and industrial silicon will also be boosted [16][17]. - **Lead** - **Market Review**: The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai lead closed at 16,825 yuan per ton, up 0.30% [17]. - **Core Logic**: Prices have limited upside and downside potential and are mainly in a range - bound state [17]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Market Review**: Prices are in a weak downward trend [20]. - **Important Information**: Steel mills adjusted scrap purchase prices, and some steel mills received environmental protection production restriction notices [20]. - **Core Logic**: Supply increases, demand decreases, inventory accumulates, and prices are expected to be in a range - bound and weakening state [20][21]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Review**: Iron ore prices are in a weak state, with five consecutive days of decline [21]. - **Important Information**: There are vehicle restrictions and an increase in blast furnace maintenance in Hebei [21]. - **Core Logic**: The market is trading on weak demand, and iron ore prices are expected to be in a range - bound state [21]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Market Review**: Prices are in a range - bound and declining state [21]. - **Important Information**: There are rainfall and high - temperature weather, and some steel mills received environmental protection production restriction notices [22]. - **Core Logic**: The market may fluctuate widely with sentiment, and attention should be paid to finished steel inventory changes [22][23]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese** - **Market Review**: Supply is increasing, and prices may decline [23]. - **Core Logic**: Supply pressure is increasing, and prices may decline due to the game between strong expectations and weak reality [23][24]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil** - **Market Review**: Overnight, the crude oil futures prices declined slightly [25]. - **Important Information**: There are developments in the geopolitical situation and changes in oil - buying sources in India [25]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical support is weakening, and fundamental bearish factors are accumulating [25][26]. - **LPG** - **Market Review**: LPG futures prices declined slightly [26]. - **Important Information**: Some refineries had maintenance and restart operations [27]. - **Core Logic**: Fundamentals have not changed significantly, and it is a near - term contract game [26][28]. - **PTA - PX** - **Market Review**: PX - PTA prices are in a range - bound state [29]. - **Core Logic**: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and it is recommended to widen the PTA processing margin on dips [29][31]. - **Methanol** - **Market Review**: The methanol 09 contract declined [32]. - **Core Logic**: Wait for the opportunity to go long after port cargo diversion or an increase in storage fees [32][33]. - **PP** - **Market Review**: PP prices are in a weak range - bound state [34]. - **Core Logic**: The future trend depends on demand changes [34][35]. - **PE** - **Market Review**: PE prices are in a range - bound state [36]. - **Core Logic**: The future trend depends on the progress of downstream demand recovery [36][37]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Review**: Prices are in a range - bound state [37][38]. - **Core Logic**: For styrene, short - term unilateral short - selling should be cautious, and consider narrowing the price difference between pure benzene and styrene on rallies [37][39]. - **Fuel Oil** - **Market Review**: Fuel oil prices remain weak [39]. - **Core Logic**: The short - term driving force is downward [39][40]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil** - **Market Review**: The crack spread is strengthening [40]. - **Core Logic**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [40][41]. - **Asphalt** - **Market Review**: Asphalt prices have declined [42]. - **Core Logic**: In the short term, the fundamentals have weakened, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the progress of specific "anti - involution" measures for the asphalt industry chain [42][43]. - **Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber** - **Market Review**: Rubber prices declined [43]. - **Core Logic**: RU2501 is expected to be in a weak range - bound state. Pay attention to the support level around 15,500 [43][45]. - **Urea** - **Market Review**: Urea prices rose [46]. - **Core Logic**: Prices are in a pattern with support below and pressure above, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,650 and 1,850 [46][47]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda** - **Soda Ash** - **Market Review**: The soda ash 2601 contract declined [47]. - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [47][48]. - **Glass** - **Market Review**: The glass 2601 contract declined [49]. - **Core Logic**: The market is in a weak equilibrium state. Pay attention to policy instructions and short - term emotional changes [49]. - **Caustic Soda** - **Market Review**: The caustic soda 2601 contract declined [50]. - **Core Logic**: Pay attention to the improvement of downstream demand and the enthusiasm for downstream inventory replenishment [50]. - **Pulp** - **Market Review**: The main contract of pulp declined [50]. - **Core Logic**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [50][51]. - **Logs** - **Market Review**: The main contract of logs declined [51]. - **Core Logic**: Prices are in a reasonable range - bound state, with limited possibility of significant price changes [51].

Report Summary 1. Index Performance - The Nanhua Composite Index declined by -0.34% based on the closing prices of adjacent trading days [1][3]. - Among the sector indices, only the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index rose by 0.09%, while the rest declined. The Nanhua Black Index had the largest decline of -0.62%, and the Nanhua Non - Ferrous Metals Index had the smallest decline of -0.39% [1][3]. - In the theme indices, the Oilseeds and Oils Index had the largest increase of 0.28%, and the Coal Chemical Index had the smallest increase of 0.04%. The Building Materials Index had the largest decline of -1.01%, and the Petrochemical Index had the smallest decline of -0.2% [1]. - For the single - variety commodity futures indices, the Urea Index had the largest increase of 3.50%, and the Building Materials Index had the largest decline of -3.44% [3]. 2. Index Charts - There are historical trend charts of the Nanhua Composite Index, sector indices, and theme indices (normalized) [2]. - There are also industrial chain diagrams and single - variety index daily price change charts for some varieties in the energy - chemical, black, and agricultural product sectors [2][9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The bond market had a weak rebound, and attention should be paid to whether it can stop falling. A-shares had a volume - shrinking consolidation, giving the bond market a chance to catch a breath, but the bond market was still weak overall. It may be considered that the bond market has bottomed out only when its trend becomes insensitive to the stock market. In terms of operations, it is not advisable to short. Cautious investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors who want to bottom - fish can enter with a small position and increase the interval between purchases [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - On Tuesday, bond futures fluctuated at a low level and closed up across the board. Most spot bond yields declined. The central bank had a net injection of 465.7 billion yuan through 7 - day reverse repurchase in the open market, and 120 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits matured, which were renewed in full the previous day. Affected by the tax period, the liquidity tightened marginally, and DR001 rose to 1.47% [1] 2. Intraday News - Li Qiang chaired the ninth plenary meeting of the State Council, emphasizing enhancing the effectiveness of macro - policies, evaluating policy implementation, and stabilizing market expectations. From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 1.35839 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. The stamp duty was 25.59 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 20.7%, among which the securities trading stamp duty was 9.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 62.5% [2] 3. Market Data - **Contract Prices and Holdings**: On August 19, 2025, the prices of TS2509, TF2509, T2509, and TL2509 were 102.328, 105.535, 108.05, and 116.46 respectively, with changes of 0.026, 0.07, 0.03, and 0.19 compared to the previous day. The holdings of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts decreased by 4340, 6542, 7101, and 1095 hands respectively [4] - **Basis and Trading Volume**: The basis of TS, TF, T, and TL (CTD) had different changes. The trading volumes of TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts also changed, with TF and T increasing and TS and TL decreasing [4] - **Funding Rates and Trading Volumes**: DR001, DR007, and DR014 increased by 0.047, 0.0346, and 0.0505 respectively. The trading volumes of DR001 decreased by 118.64502 billion yuan, while those of DR007 and DR014 increased by 1.749036 billion yuan and 0.304216 billion yuan respectively [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Report's Core View - Today's stock market experienced a overall correction. The index failed to break through the pressure line mentioned yesterday and corrected as expected. Usually, the large - cap index is more resilient during corrections, but today it declined more while the small - cap index was relatively stable. The high trading volume (above 2.5 trillion yuan) supported high - P/E stocks, while cyclical industries like non - banking finance and upstream resources, which may be related to weak previous fundamentals, lacked upward support and pulled down the large - cap index. If the trading volume narrows, the small - cap index is expected to correct more. Currently, the market is in a multi - empty sentiment game stage, and attention should be paid to the market sentiment and trading volume adjustment at key points [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Today, the stock index corrected with shrinking volume, and the small - cap index had a relatively smaller decline. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 1757.94 billion yuan. In the futures index market, all varieties declined with shrinking volume [4] Important News - Five departments including the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security issued the "Notice on Issues Concerning the Withdrawal of Individual Pensions", enriching the withdrawal scenarios of individual pensions and clarifying specific operation methods, which will be implemented from September 1st [5] Insurance Strategy - Hold spot and buy put options [7] Futures Index Market Observation - The main contract intraday price changes of IF, IH, IC, and IM were - 0.50%, - 1.19%, - 0.13%, and - 0.03% respectively. The trading volumes were 10.9269 million lots, 6.2436 million lots, 10.2352 million lots, and 23.6188 million lots respectively, with a decrease of 4.0988 million lots, 1.1755 million lots, 2.9385 million lots, and 5.6941 million lots respectively compared with the previous period. The open interests were 25.8257 million lots, 10.3724 million lots, 22.075 million lots, and 37.695 million lots respectively, with a decrease of 1.5341 million lots, 0.35 million lots, 0.5253 million lots, and 1.5574 million lots respectively compared with the previous period [7] Spot Market Observation - The Shanghai Composite Index declined by 0.02%, and the Shenzhen Component Index declined by 0.12%. The ratio of rising to falling stocks was 1.28. The trading volume of the two markets was 25883.69 billion yuan, with a decrease of 1757.94 billion yuan compared with the previous period [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting will be a "watershed" for the Fed's policy direction. The market should focus on three key signals: labor market judgment, inflation risk statements, and emphasis on policy flexibility [2][36] - Powell's speech at the meeting is likely to maintain a "neutral to hawkish" stance, emphasizing "inflation resilience" and "policy flexibility" to guide the market to reduce bets on "consecutive rate cuts" [3] - The Fed's core goal of "balancing inflation and growth" remains unchanged. The game between the lagged impact of tariffs and economic downside risks will be the main line of future monetary policy [3] Summary by Directory Introduction: Policy Weathervane Significance of the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting - The Jackson Hole Annual Meeting is a key platform for the Fed to release major policy signals. The policy statements at this meeting often set the tone for subsequent monetary policies [4][7] Current Economic Background and Complexity of the Fed's Policy Environment Macro - economic and Policy Pressure Intertwined - The US economy shows multiple contradictory features. Inflation pressure is structurally differentiated, with core CPI showing more resilience. The labor market is cooling but still has some strength, and external policy pressure has increased significantly [8][11][13] - As of August 19, the market's probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September has reached 90%, and some institutions have even raised the probability of a 50 - basis - point rate cut [13] Fed's Internal Disagreement - The dovish camp is concerned about economic downside risks and employment market slowdown, advocating for near - term rate cuts. The hawkish camp emphasizes labor market resilience and inflation rebound risks, advocating maintaining high interest rates [14] Key Economic Data Analysis July US CPI Data - July CPI showed "overall stability and strong core." Energy prices declined, food prices were stable, while core services inflation was strong. Different commodity items were affected differently by tariffs and demand [15] July US PPI Data - July PPI showed an unexpected increase, mainly driven by services. The increase in PPI may not fully reflect fundamental inflation pressure, but it indicates potential upward risks for future CPI [22][23] Root Causes of the July CPI and PPI Divergence - The divergence between CPI and PPI reflects the complexity of inflation transmission, including a 1 - 3 - month time lag in cost transfer and possible statistical differences [25] Possible Scenarios of Powell's Speech and Policy Signal Analysis - Scenario 1: Absence from the meeting. This is a "passive neutral" strategy to avoid market volatility and leave policy decisions to economic data before the September meeting [27] - Scenario 2: Deliver a "non - substantial" speech. This is to maintain policy options' openness and postpone the final decision to the September meeting [28] - Scenario 3: Moderately release rate - cut signals. This requires further deterioration of employment data and significant escalation of external pressure from the Trump administration [28] Market Expectations and Future Monetary Policy Outlook Short - term Market Expectations and Risks - Market expectations of the number of rate cuts this year are around 3 times, but this is at risk of adjustment. US economic downside risks are accumulating, making short - term policy expectations more complex [34] Medium - to - Long - term Monetary Policy Path - The lagged impact of tariffs will be a key constraint on the Fed's policy in the next 1 - 2 years. In Q4 2025, inflation pressure may intensify, and in 2026, inflation is likely to fall, opening up room for significant rate cuts [34] Conclusion: Core Observation Points of the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting - The meeting will be a "watershed" for the Fed's policy. The market should focus on labor market judgment, inflation risk statements, and policy flexibility [36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The tin price rose slightly in the recent period and then declined. Both macro and fundamental factors have limited impact on it. The US retail sales data in July met expectations. The repeated postponement of the full resumption of tin mines in Myanmar has significantly supported the tin price and may have a continuous impact. In the short term, the tin price may continue to fluctuate, with a stable macro - environment and room for speculation on supply - side topics [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest closing price of tin is 267,020 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 14.36%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 26.1% [2]. - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concern about price decline, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2510C275000 call option when the volatility is appropriate. For raw material management with low raw - material inventory and concern about price increase, it is recommended to buy 50% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2510P245000 put option when the volatility is appropriate [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Likely to be positive**: Sino - US tariff policy relief, the semiconductor sector still being in an expansion cycle, and the resumption of production in Myanmar falling short of expectations [4]. - **Likely to be negative**: The tariff policy being inconsistent, the inflow of Burmese tin ore into China, and the semiconductor sector's expansion slowing down and gradually moving from an expansion cycle to a contraction cycle [5]. 3.3 Tin Futures and Spot Data - **Futures data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Tin main, Shanghai Tin continuous one, and Shanghai Tin continuous three are 267,020 yuan/ton, 267,290 yuan/ton, and 267,400 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change. The price of LME tin 3M is 33,670 US dollars/ton, up 60 US dollars or 0.18% daily. The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.91, down 0.15 or 1.86% [6]. - **Spot data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots, 1 tin premium, 40% tin concentrate, 60% tin concentrate, 60A solder bar, 63A solder bar, and lead - free solder are 266,800 yuan/ton, 400 yuan/ton, 254,800 yuan/ton, 258,800 yuan/ton, 173,250 yuan/ton, 180,750 yuan/ton, and 272,750 yuan/ton respectively. Their weekly changes are - 1,200 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, - 1,200 yuan/ton, - 1,200 yuan/ton, - 500 yuan/ton, - 1,000 yuan/ton, and - 1,500 yuan/ton respectively [12]. 3.4 Tin Import and Processing - The latest tin import profit and loss is - 17,389.53 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 7.6%. The 40% and 60% tin ore processing fees are 12,200 yuan/ton and 10,050 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change [14]. 3.5 Tin Inventory - The total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 7,587 tons, an increase of 161 tons or 2.17% daily. The warehouse receipt quantity of tin in Guangdong is 5,230 tons, an increase of 267 tons or 5.38% daily, and in Shanghai is 1,486 tons, a decrease of 106 tons or - 6.66% daily. The total LME tin inventory is 1,655 tons, with no daily change [17].

Report Overview - The report is the Copper Risk Management Daily Report of Nanhua Futures, dated August 19, 2025, prepared by Nanhua's non-ferrous metals research team [1] Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The slight decline of copper prices on Monday was a bit unexpected, possibly related to the decline in the valuation of the entire commodity market. The stock market's unexpected strength on Monday did not drive the futures market. In the short term, copper prices may continue to fluctuate, or slightly strengthen. The previous support level of 77,000 yuan per ton can be raised to 78,000 yuan per ton. Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting may have limited impact on copper prices [3] Summary by Directory Copper Price Volatility and Risk Management Suggestions - The latest copper price is 78,950 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2] - For inventory management (high finished product inventory, worried about price decline), it is recommended to short 75% of the Shanghai copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the call option CU2510C82000 when the volatility is relatively stable. For raw material management (low raw material inventory, worried about price increase), it is recommended to long 75% of the Shanghai copper main futures contract at around 77,000 yuan/ton [2] Factors Affecting Copper Prices - **Likely to increase prices**: The US reaches an agreement on tariff policies with other countries; the increase in interest rate cut expectations leads to a decline in the US dollar index, pushing up the valuation of non-ferrous metals; the support level is raised [4][5] - **Likely to decrease prices**: The tariff policy fluctuates; global demand decreases due to tariff policies; the adjustment of the US copper tariff policy leads to an extremely high COMEX inventory [5][7] Copper Futures and Spot Data - **Futures data**: The latest price of the Shanghai copper main contract is 78,950 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The Shanghai copper continuous one contract decreased by 150 yuan/ton (-0.19%), and the London copper 3M contract decreased by 8 US dollars/ton (-0.08%). The Shanghai-London ratio is 8.18, a decrease of 0.02 (-0.24%) [6] - **Spot data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Nonferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumei, Guangdong Nanchu, and Yangtze Nonferrous are 79,280 yuan/ton, 79,280 yuan/ton, 79,150 yuan/ton, and 79,430 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 0.13%, 0.14%, 0.18%, and 0.16% [13] Copper Scrap Price Difference - The current scrap price difference (tax-included) is 1,013.51 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85 yuan (-7.74%); the reasonable scrap price difference (tax-included) is 1,492.05 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.85 yuan (-0.06%) [15] Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - **Warehouse receipts**: The total Shanghai copper warehouse receipts are 25,498 tons, an increase of 938 tons (3.82%); the total international copper warehouse receipts are 14,351 tons, an increase of 6,929 tons (93.36%) [19] - **Inventories**: The total LME copper inventory is 155,600 tons, a decrease of 200 tons (-0.13%); the total COMEX copper inventory is 269,070 tons, an increase of 3,874 tons (1.46%) [22][23] Copper Import Profit and Processing Fees - The copper import profit is 329.14 yuan/ton, an increase of 184.22 yuan (127.12%); the copper concentrate TC is -37.67 US dollars/ton, with no change [24]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The freight index (European Line) futures contracts generally showed an opening increase, followed by a volatile decline, and a slight recovery near the close. Most contracts ended slightly higher, except for EC2604. The EC2510 contract saw a reduction in long and short positions, and trading volume decreased. The market sentiment was relatively calm, with some short - positions taking profits. In early September, the spot freight quotes of some shipping companies on the European Line stopped falling and rebounded, supporting the futures prices. The EC is likely to continue its oscillating trend, and some contracts may recover from low levels [1]. Summary by Related Content EC Risk Management Strategy - For those with existing shipping space but facing full capacity or poor booking volume and worried about falling freight rates, it is recommended to short the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at 1450 - 1550 to lock in profits [1]. - For those aiming to manage costs and concerned about rising freight rates, it is advisable to buy the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at 1200 - 1300 to pre - determine booking costs [1]. EC Contract Data - As of August 19, 2025, the EC2508 contract had a base of 91.97 points, a daily decline of 4.40 points, and a weekly decline of 63.51 points. The EC2510 contract had a base of 807.07 points, a daily increase of 0.50 points, and a weekly decline of 19.61 points. Different contracts had various price changes and spreads [3][5]. Freight Quotes - On August 28, Maersk's 20GP total quote for Shanghai - Rotterdam was $1450, up $45 from the previous period, and 40GP was $2450, up $80. In late August, CMA CGM's 20GP quote decreased by $150, and 40GP by $300. In early September, CMA CGM's 20GP quote recovered by $600, and 40GP by $700. ONE's 20GP quote in early September increased by $330 on average, and 40GP by $500 [7]. Global Freight Index - The SCFIS European Line decreased by 2.47% to 2180.17 points; the SCFIS US West Line increased by 2.23% to 1106.29 points. Other indices also showed different degrees of increase or decrease [8]. Port Waiting Time - On August 18, 2025, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port was 0.493 days, up 0.074 days from the previous day; Shanghai Port was 2.029 days, up 0.476 days. Different ports had different waiting time changes [15]. Ship Speed and Waiting Ships - On August 18, 2025, the speed of 8000 + container ships was 15.98 knots, down 0.04 knots from the previous day. The number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchor decreased by 1 to 15 [24].