1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, PP will remain in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with upward pressure difficult to relieve. The high level of PP device maintenance can only alleviate part of the supply pressure, while the large inventory of supply and the upcoming new device production make it hard to fundamentally solve the supply - surplus problem. On the demand side, downstream speculative replenishment has led to high raw material inventory and weak spot trading [1]. - In the near term, the bearish trend of PP is expected to continue as it is difficult to reverse the fundamental situation. To see PP stabilize and rebound, improvements in the spot market, repair of basis, high device maintenance in the fourth quarter, high demand growth, and no increase in imports are required [5]. - In the long term, from the production forecast in the first quarter of 2026, new PP device production will be relatively limited, mainly focusing on digesting existing capacity. Coupled with an overall optimistic macro - expectation, PP is expected to show a bottom - up recovery [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Supply - demand aspect**: Although recent device maintenance has alleviated some supply pressure, the large inventory of supply and the upcoming 400,000 - ton new device of Guangxi Petrochemical make it difficult to fundamentally solve the supply - surplus problem. On the demand side, downstream speculative replenishment has led to high raw material inventory, weakening the demand - side support [1]. - **Macro aspect**: This week, crude oil prices peaked and fell. The result of the Sino - US trade negotiation, a 10% reduction in fentanyl tariffs, was lower than market expectations, leading to a weakening of the macro - environment and a general decline in chemical products. Macro - sentiment and cost - side fluctuations have a greater impact on the PP market [1]. 3.1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - **Recent strategy review**: A unilateral long - at - low strategy was proposed on September 19 and closed after the National Day due to the decline in propane prices during the holiday [10]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price range forecast**: The predicted price range of polypropylene in the next month is 6,500 - 7,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.94% and a historical percentile of 20.9% over the past three years [11]. - **Hedging strategy**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, they can short PP2601 futures (25% hedging ratio, entry range 6,900 - 7,000 yuan/ton) and sell call options (50% hedging ratio, entry range 20 - 40) to lock in profits and reduce costs. For enterprises with low procurement inventory, they can buy PP2601 futures (50% hedging ratio, entry range 6,500 - 6,550 yuan/ton) to lock in procurement costs [11]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: The coal price rose due to the shutdown of Shaanxi Shiyangou Coal Mine after an accident; relevant departments mentioned rectifying involution - style competition and establishing a fair and innovative business environment; a 450,000 - ton device of Quanzhou Guoheng malfunctioned and is expected to stop until November 7; two new PP lines (900,000 tons in total) of Daxie Petrochemical are expected to stop for 3 - 4 months due to upstream technical transformation [18]. - **Negative information**: The result of the Sino - US meeting in Busan, a 10% reduction in fentanyl tariffs, was lower than market expectations, leading to a decline [14]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Event Concerns - The meeting result of OPEC+ on December's crude oil production; the situation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict; relevant policy recommendations after the Fourth Plenary Session [19]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - volume and Fund Interpretation - **Unilateral trend and fund movement**: The market was mainly oscillating in the first half of the week and declined in the second half. This week, the trading volume decreased slightly, and the net short positions of the top five profitable seats increased significantly. Market sentiment has slightly improved, with more long - short competition [21]. - **Basis structure**: After speculative replenishment, downstream inventory is high, weakening spot demand. As of Friday, the basis in North China was - 170 yuan/ton (weakened by 48 yuan compared to last week), - 70 yuan/ton in East China (weakened by 8 yuan), and - 40 yuan/ton in South China (strengthened by 32 yuan) [23]. - **Spread structure**: Due to the relatively optimistic macro - expectation and fewer PP device productions in the first half of next year, the L1 - 5 spread shows a contango structure [26]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - Due to the continuous weakness of PP, the profit situation of each production line is not optimistic. The recent increase in propane prices has led to a decline in PDH device profits, currently at - 300 yuan/ton. If the profits are further compressed, PDH devices may reduce production [31]. 3.5 Supply - demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - demand Balance Sheet Deduction - From the balance sheet, the future supply - demand pressure is not too large. The key is to digest the existing inventory. Maintaining supply - demand balance requires high device maintenance in the fourth quarter, a high demand growth rate (current apparent demand growth rate is 11%), and limited increase in imports [39]. 3.5.2 Supply - side and Deduction - The current PP operating rate is 77.06% (+1.13%). This week, devices such as Yulong Petrochemical and Zhongjing Petrochemical restarted, slightly increasing the operating rate. In November, devices such as Daxie Petrochemical and Maoming Petrochemical will be under maintenance, but the upcoming 400,000 - ton new device of Guangxi Petrochemical and the large existing capacity make it difficult to fundamentally relieve the supply pressure [45]. 3.5.3 Import - export and Deduction - **Import**: Due to the weak overseas prices, some low - price PP supplies may flow into China, but the increase is expected to be limited. - **Export**: Weak overseas demand and the off - season for exports restrict PP exports, but some enterprises have increased export orders by reducing prices this week [48]. 3.5.4 Demand - side and Deduction - The current average downstream operating rate is 52.61% (+0.24%). Affected by previous price fluctuations, downstream speculative replenishment has led to high raw material inventory and pre - empted some replenishment demand. This week, the spot market was inactive, with weak trading and a weak basis [55].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The current supply-demand pattern of PE is characterized by strong supply and weak demand, which is difficult to change. The supply pressure remains high due to high inventory capacity and the successive commissioning of multiple devices in the fourth quarter, while the demand support will gradually weaken at the end of the year [1][8][33]. - In the short - to medium - term, PE is expected to show a weak and volatile trend, and a bearish view is recommended. In the long - term, the supply pressure of LLDPE may ease next year, but the supply pressure of non - standard products may suppress its price [8]. - The macro environment has a significant impact on the PE market. The weakening of the macro atmosphere and the decline in crude oil prices have led to a general decline in chemical products, and attention should be paid to subsequent policy changes [1]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Supply - demand level: Supply pressure is high as the total output remains high despite a slight increase in recent maintenance volume, and new devices are to be commissioned. Demand support is weak as the incremental space for demand is limited at the end of the year, and downstream raw material inventory is high [1]. - Macro level: Crude oil prices have peaked and declined, and the result of the Sino - US trade negotiation is lower than market expectations, leading to a weakening of the macro atmosphere. The influence of macro emotions and cost fluctuations on the PE market has increased [1]. 1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: Weak and volatile [10]. - Price range: L2601 is between 6800 - 7100 [10]. - Strategy suggestion: Short on rallies [10]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Suggestions - Price range forecast for polyethylene: 6800 - 7200 [12]. - Hedging strategies: For inventory management, short plastic futures and sell call options; for procurement management, buy plastic futures and sell put options [12]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: Not provided in the content. - Bearish information: The Sino - US meeting result is lower than market expectations, new devices are commissioned, and the restart of some devices increases supply [18]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - OPEC + meeting results on December crude oil production, the situation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and relevant policy suggestions after the Fourth Plenary Session [18]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend: The disk reached a peak on Tuesday and then declined this week [20]. - Capital movement: The open interest increased this week, with no significant changes in the top five long and short positions in the order book, a slight reduction in net short positions of the top five profitable seats, and a slight increase in net short positions of the main profitable seats [20]. - Basis structure: The spot price lacks support and follows the decline of the PE disk. As of Friday, the basis in North China was - 79 yuan/ton (weakened by 20 compared with last week), in East China was 31 yuan/ton (- 10), and in South China was 251 yuan/ton (+ 70) [22]. - Spread structure: The L1 - 5 spread shows a contango structure due to the relatively optimistic macro expectations and the limited commissioning of LLDPE devices in the first half of next year [24]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - The production profits of all production lines have been compressed, and the coal - based production line with the best profit is also in a loss state. PE devices are not sensitive to profit conditions, so there is a lack of strong cost support during the downward trend [28]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The pattern of strong supply and weak demand of PE is difficult to change. Supply pressure is high due to high inventory capacity, new device commissioning, and expected increase in imports after October. Demand support will gradually weaken as the incremental space for demand is limited at the end of the year [33]. 5.2 Supply - side and Deduction - The current PE operating rate is 80.86% (- 0.59%). Although the maintenance loss has increased, new device commissioning will still lead to high supply pressure [36]. 5.3 Import - Export and Deduction - Import: Overseas supply - demand is weak, and low - price goods are flowing into China, resulting in an increase in imports in the fourth quarter [41]. - Export: Enterprises are more active in expanding export channels, but the overall export volume is small and has little impact on the supply - demand pattern [41]. 5.4 Demand - side and Deduction - The average downstream operating rate of PE is 45.75% (- 0.38%). The agricultural film is in the peak season with increasing operating rate and orders, while the packaging film has insufficient new orders and a declining operating rate [49].

南华期货乙二醇产业周报 ——宏观叙事出现前均维持空配思路 戴一帆（投资咨询资格证号：Z0015428 ） 研究助理：周嘉伟（期货从业资格证号：F03133676） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年11月2日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 总体而言，乙二醇需求端随天气转冷冬季订单下发边际明显好转，但基本面供需边际好转难改估值承压 格局，累库预期压制下估值整体承压。宏观上目前从定调上均以预期兑现为主，尚未看到能够形成长期驱动 的宏观叙事。近端显性库存累库预期得到初步兑现，但总体仍维持低位，近期宏观影响下进口扰动频频，若 出现意外或可产生流动性行情，基差维持正套看待。乙二醇长期累库预期使得乙二醇空配地位难改，宏观利 好若无法形成长期驱动，则逢高布空的操作思路维持不变。向下空间而言，乙二醇当前煤制边际装置现金流 已压缩至成本线附近，结合煤制装置开工情况考虑，若估值继续压缩，预计在3700附近将迎来供应端偏强支 撑。目前而言，乙二醇预计短期跟随宏观情绪宽幅震荡，预计震荡区间为3850-4250，操作上考虑在50以上 卖出4200看涨期权，4150以上考虑空单逢高入场。 ∗ 近 ...

南华期货尿素产业周报 ——偏弱震荡 2025/11/02 联系人 张博（投资咨询证号：Z0021070） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 跟随宏观阶段性利多出尽，尿素弱势回落。从现货角度来看多地雨水暂停，秋收、秋播陆续推进，农业尿 素走货适当增加，尿素企业出货适当好转,虽然多数仅维持产销弱平衡，但相较于前期的惨淡已经有较大好 转。内需方面，内需偏弱是目前价格下跌的主要矛盾，复合肥及工业需求均较为疲软，对价格驱动同样有限 因此中期趋势偏弱。在期货高升水的格局下，期现贸易商采购积极性较强。因此虽然前期宏观与产业共振带 动期货反弹，但后期来看，在出口配额消失的背景下，尿素仍面临较大压力。 ∗ 近端交易逻辑 尿素现货日产销与尿素期货收盘价 元/吨 尿素平均产销(右轴) 尿素期货主力合约收盘价 23/12 24/04 24/08 24/12 25/04 25/08 1 2 3 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 尿素山东产销季节性 2023 2024 2025 03/01 05/01 07/01 09/01 11/01 0 2 4 6 sou ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, influenced by the "anti - involution" rumor, the industrial sentiment of PTA has significantly improved, and some short - position funds have reduced their positions to avoid risks. The supply - side of PTA has many maintenance plans in November, and the downstream polyester demand has exceeded expectations after the weather turns cold. The supply - demand of PTA has improved marginally, and the price has rebounded from a low level. However, the expectation of PTA surplus remains unchanged, and the structural contradiction of PX - TA suppresses the repair space of PTA processing fees. The expected price of crude oil on the cost side is also bearish [1]. - In the short term, PX - PTA is expected to fluctuate strongly following the cost side. For operation, consider short - selling on rallies when the single - side 01 contract is above 4700. Regarding processing fees, it is recommended to expand the spread when the TA01 contract processing fee is below 250 [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The "anti - involution" rumor has improved market sentiment, and the supply - demand of PTA has marginally improved. However, the surplus expectation and structural contradictions still exist [1]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Recent Strategy Review**: Two PTA processing - fee expansion strategies have achieved profit - taking. The first one entered the market on 2025/10/27 (cost 250) and exited on 2025/10/28 (290 exit, profit spread +40). The second one entered on 2025/9/22 (cost 278) and exited on 2025/9/30 (305 exit, profit spread +27) [9]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Polyester Price Range Forecast**: The price ranges of ethylene glycol, PX, PTA, and bottle chips are 3800 - 4300, 6000 - 6800, 4250 - 4750, and 5300 - 5900 respectively. Their current volatilities and historical percentile of volatilities in 3 years are also provided [10]. - **PTA Hedging Strategy**: For inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and worried about PTA price decline, it is recommended to short - sell PTA futures to lock in profits. For procurement management, when the procurement inventory is low, it is recommended to buy PTA futures to lock in procurement costs [10]. 3.1.4 Trend Judgement and Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgement**: Wide - range fluctuations. - **Price Range**: The TA2601 contract fluctuates in the range of 4400 - 4750. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Consider short - selling on rallies when the 01 contract is above 4700. For the TA01 contract processing fee, it is recommended to expand the spread when it is below 240 [11]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The "anti - involution" policy is proposed, and trade frictions between China and the US have eased. Some PTA devices have reduced their loads [14][15]. - **Negative Information**: A new PTA device of Dushan Energy has been put into operation [16]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Event Concerns - Monitor the sustainability of polyester load and terminal orders, the implementation of PX and PTA device restart and maintenance plans, and the follow - up measures of the "anti - involution" symposium [17]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend**: This week, the PTA disk oscillated in the range of 4500 - 4700. After a downward oscillation, the price rebounded, the position increased, and the trend degree turned positive [18]. - **Fund Movement**: Recently, the net short - position of key PTA seats has decreased, while that of PX has increased. Some funds have transferred short - positions from PTA to PX to avoid risks [20]. - **Monthly Spread Structure**: The PTA monthly spread has strengthened slightly, showing a small C - structure, indicating that the inter - monthly contradiction is not obvious [22]. - **Basis Structure**: The PTA spot basis has mainly oscillated this week, and the market expectation remains poor. There is no obvious contradiction in the spot market, and the basis lacks driving force [32]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Cost Tracking - Track the prices of Brent crude oil, Japanese CFR naphtha, and South Korean xylene [36]. 3.4.2 Upstream Profit Tracking of the Industrial Chain - Analyze the cracking spreads of international and domestic gasoline and diesel, naphtha reforming, aromatic hydrocarbon blending, and PX - TA links [37][41][57]. 3.4.3 Downstream Profit Tracking of the Industrial Chain - Analyze the seasonal trends of polyester comprehensive profit, POY, FDY, DTY, short - fiber processing profits, and bottle - chip processing fees [59][61][62]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - Provide the supply - demand balance sheets of PX and PTA from January 2024 to December 2025, including production, import, consumption, and inventory data [70]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - **PX**: The supply of PX is expected to remain high in the fourth quarter. If the PTA maintenance plans are implemented as scheduled, PX is expected to accumulate about 200,000 tons of inventory in November. Currently, the PX processing fees are in a good state [71]. - **PTA**: A new PTA device has been put into operation, and some devices have reduced their loads. The social inventory has continued to accumulate. The PTA processing fee has been repaired but remains at a low level [72]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - The polyester load has increased to 91.7%. The terminal weaving orders have improved significantly after the weather turns cold, and the long - fiber inventory has continued to decline. The polyester processing fee is in a healthy state. The bottle - chip processing fee has been continuously repaired, and its load is a determining factor for the future polyester load [85].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Iron Ore Risk Management Report [1] - Report date: October 31, 2025 [1] Group 2: Price Forecast and Strategy - November price forecast for Iron Ore 12 contract: 770 - 826, with current ATM option IV at 18.85% and historical volatility percentile at 11.3% [2] - Inventory management strategy: For those with current inventory worried about price drops, recommend shorting iron ore futures (I2512) at 25% hedge ratio in the 820 - 830 range and selling call options (I2512 - C - 830) at 30% hedge ratio on rallies [2] - Procurement management strategy: For those planning future purchases worried about price hikes, recommend going long on iron ore futures (I2512) at 30% hedge ratio in the 780 - 790 range and selling out - of - the - money put options (I2511 - P - 780) at 40% hedge ratio on rallies [2] Group 3: Core View - The iron ore market faces a short - term situation of "exhausted macro - level positives and pressured fundamentals". Supply remains high, port inventories are accumulating, and demand is suppressed by shrinking steel mill profits and falling hot metal production. With coking coal's strength squeezing profits, the upside for iron ore prices is limited. Suggest looking for opportunities to short on rallies after valuation adjustments [3] Group 4: Factors Affecting Price Bullish factors - Although monthly hot metal production decreased, it still shows year - on - year growth and is at a seasonal high, providing some support for iron ore demand [4] - Steel mills have low profits but have not yet cut production [4] - Previous macro events (China - US summit, Fed rate cut) improved market sentiment [4] Bearish factors - Macro - level positives are exhausted, entering a macro vacuum period [4] - Iron ore shipments remain at a seasonal high, and port inventories are accumulating above the seasonal norm [4] - Hot - rolled coil inventories are continuously accumulating above the seasonal norm. Although production has marginally declined, it remains high, indicating weak overall demand [4] - Steel mill profits have dropped significantly, and the pressure for production cuts is building up [4] - The strength of coking coal is squeezing the space for iron ore [4] Group 5: Price Data Futures contract closing prices - On October 31, 2025, the 01 contract closed at 800 (down 2.5 from the previous day, up 29 from a week ago), the 05 contract at 776.5 (down 3, up 26), and the 09 contract at 755 (down 3.5, up 25) [4] Basis data - On October 31, 2025, the 01 basis was 2 (down 0.5, down 5 week - on - week), the 05 basis was 25.5 (unchanged, down 2), and the 09 basis was 47 (up 0.5, down 1) [4][5] Spot prices - On October 31, 2025, the price of Rizhao PB powder was 803 (down 2, up 25 week - on - week), Rizhao Carajás fines was 913 (down 7, up 12), and Rizhao Super Special was 708 (down 6, up 6) [5] Platts Index - On October 30, 2025, the Platts 58% index was 96.25 (down 0.55, up 1.9 week - on - week), the Platts 62% index was 107.7 (down 0.7, up 2.05), and the Platts 65% index was 121.2 (down 0.7, up 2.05) [6] Group 6: Fundamental Data - As of October 31, 2025, daily average hot metal production was 236.36 (down 3.54 week - on - week, down 5.45 month - on - month), 45 - port desilting volume was 320.16 (up 7.51, down 16.24), five major steel products' apparent demand was 916 (up 24, up 12), global shipments were 3388.4 (up 54.9, down 87), Australia - Brazil shipments were 2844.5 (up 104.5, up 77.5), 45 - port arrivals were 2029.1 (down 490.3, down 331.4), 45 - port inventories were 14542.48 (up 118.89, up 542.2), 247 steel mill inventories were 8849.86 (down 229.33, down 1186.93), and 247 steel mills' available days were 30.35 (down 0.28, down 3.24) [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Core Views - The outer - market US soybeans are mainly driven by export demand under the context of China - US negotiations. With the expected export of 12 million tons to China being gradually priced in, the ending inventory remains at around 300 million bushels, and the price oscillation range moves up slightly. There is limited upward drive due to the smooth planting of Brazilian soybeans. The inner - market soybean meal's rebound is limited by the high near - month inventory. Buying US soybeans will bring a downward drive for the far - month, but the cost support moves up during the outer - market rebound, so the decline is also limited. The inner - market rapeseed meal is affected by China - Canada negotiations. It shows slightly stronger in the short - term due to the approaching of the warrant cancellation month, but chasing long is not advisable. The timing of going long after November depends on subsequent warrant changes [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - The monthly price prediction for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.3% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 8.2%. For rapeseed meal, it is 2250 - 2750, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.8% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 20.9% [3] - For traders with high protein inventory worried about price drops, they can short M2601 soybean meal futures with a 25% hedging ratio at 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits. Feed mills with low inventory can buy M2601 soybean meal futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs. Oil mills worried about high imports and low prices can short M2601 soybean meal futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits [3] Core Contradictions - Outer - market US soybeans are export - demand - driven. Inner - market soybean meal's rebound is limited by high near - month inventory, and buying US soybeans will affect far - month prices. Inner - market rapeseed meal is affected by China - Canada negotiations and warrant cancellation [4] 利多解读 (Positive Interpretations) - The Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract prices from the cost side. The outer - market strengthens continuously when buying US soybeans. The pressure on the near - month contract is relieved as it enters the warrant cancellation month [5][6] 利空解读 (Negative Interpretations) - The current near - month supply shows high inventory of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills, and soybean meal will continue the seasonal inventory accumulation. The smooth planting in Brazil and the repair of the far - month supply gap under China - US negotiations are negative factors [6][9] Futures Prices - The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3021, up 27 (0.9%); soybean meal 05 is 2813, up 14 (0.5%); soybean meal 09 is 2930, up 12 (0.41%); rapeseed meal 01 is 2388, down 13 (- 0.54%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2342, up 7 (0.3%); rapeseed meal 09 is 2432, up 3 (0.12%); CBOT yellow soybeans are 1115, up 8 (0.72%); the offshore RMB is 7.122, up 0.0089 (0.13%) [7][10] Price Spreads - For soybean meal, M01 - 05 spread is 208, up 13; M05 - 09 is - 117, up 2; M09 - 01 is - 91, down 15. For rapeseed meal, RM01 - 05 spread is 46, down 20; RM05 - 09 is - 90, up 4; RM09 - 01 is 44, up 16. The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao is 3020, up 20; the basis is - 1, down 7. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian is 2450, unchanged; the basis is 62, up 13. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 570, up 20; the futures spread is 633, up 40 [11] Import Costs and Crushing Profits - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4727.8317 yuan/ton, down 41.7099; the Brazilian soybean import cost is 4062.33 yuan/ton, up 20.17. The import profit of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is - 852.6667 yuan/ton, down 41.7099; the Brazilian soybean import profit is - 43.7567 yuan/ton, down 15.4341. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed in the futures market is 497 yuan/ton, down 92; in the spot market, it is 765 yuan/ton, down 92 [12]

Group 1: Market Performance Summary - Based on the closing prices of adjacent trading days, the Nanhua Composite Index fell -0.17% today [1][3]. - Among the sector indices, only the Nanhua Precious Metals Index rose 1.33%, while the rest declined. The Nanhua Non - Ferrous Metals Index had the largest decline of -0.61%, and the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index had the smallest decline of -0.23% [1][3]. - All theme indices declined. The Coal - to - Chemical Index had the largest decline of -0.77%, and the Mini Composite Index had the smallest decline of -0.08% [1][3]. - In the commodity futures single - variety indices, the silver index had the largest increase of 1.68%, and the lithium carbonate index had the largest decline of -3.14% [1][3]. Group 2: Index - Specific Data Comprehensive Index - The Nanhua Composite Index (NHCI) closed at 2538.87 today, down from 2543.12 yesterday, a decrease of -4.24 points or -0.17%. Its annualized return rate is 0.10%, annualized volatility is 11.69%, and the Sharpe ratio is 0.01 [3]. Sector Indices - The Nanhua Precious Metals Index (NHPMI) closed at 1514.74, up 19.86 points or 1.33% from the previous day. Its annualized return rate is 41.62%, annualized volatility is 18.18%, and the Sharpe ratio is 2.29 [3]. - The Nanhua Industrial Products Index (NHII) closed at 3556.67, down -16.22 points or -0.45% from yesterday. Its annualized return rate is -6.44%, annualized volatility is 14.02%, and the Sharpe ratio is -0.46 [3]. - The Nanhua Metal Index (NHMI) closed at 6485.90, down -30.03 points or -0.46% from the previous day. Its annualized return rate is 1.52%, annualized volatility is 12.25%, and the Sharpe ratio is 0.12 [3]. - The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index (NHECI) closed at 1590.82, down -8.46 points or -0.53% from yesterday. Its annualized return rate is -13.23%, annualized volatility is 16.72%, and the Sharpe ratio is -0.79 [3]. - The Nanhua Non - Ferrous Metals Index (NHNF) closed at 1747.44, down -10.66 points or -0.61% from the previous day. Its annualized return rate is 4.31%, annualized volatility is 12.51%, and the Sharpe ratio is 0.34 [3]. - The Nanhua Black Index (NHFI) closed at 2565.73, down -8.12 points or -0.32% from yesterday. Its annualized return rate is -5.68%, annualized volatility is 17.09%, and the Sharpe ratio is -0.33 [3]. - The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index (NHAI) closed at 1049.31, down -2.37 points or -0.23% from the previous day. Its annualized return rate is -1.51%, annualized volatility is 8.76%, and the Sharpe ratio is -0.17 [3]. Theme Indices - The Mini Composite Index (NHCIMi) closed at 1177.34, down -0.92 points or -0.08% from the previous day. Its annualized return rate is -0.86%, annualized volatility is 9.73%, and the Sharpe ratio is -0.09 [3]. - The Cement Index (NHEI) closed at 1034.65, down -1.70 points or -0.16% from the previous day. Its annualized return rate is -0.85%, annualized volatility is 19.69%, and the Sharpe ratio is -0.04 [3]. - The Petrochemical Index (NHPCI) closed at 892.65, down -3.18 points or -0.35% from the previous day. Its annualized return rate is -2.55%, annualized volatility is 9.90%, and the Sharpe ratio is -0.26 [3]. - The Coal - to - Chemical Index (NHCCI) closed at 945.83, down -7.30 points or -0.77% from the previous day. Its annualized return rate is -3.59%, annualized volatility is 9.54%, and the Sharpe ratio is -0.38 [3]. - The Black Raw Materials Index (NHFM) closed at 1091.71, down -5.34 points or -0.49% from the previous day. Its annualized return rate is 1.34%, annualized volatility is 16.61%, and the Sharpe ratio is 0.08 [3]. - The Building Materials Index (NHBMI) closed at 713.22, down -2.77 points or -0.39% from the previous day. Its annualized return rate is -2.02%, annualized volatility is 12.43%, and the Sharpe ratio is -0.16 [3]. - The Oilseeds and Oils Index (NHOOI) closed at 1227.58, down -3.15 points or -0.26% from the previous day. Its annualized return rate is -2.31%, annualized volatility is 11.62%, and the Sharpe ratio is -0.20 [3]. - The Economic Crops Index (NHAECI) closed at 916.78, down -0.97 points or -0.11% from the previous day. Its annualized return rate is 0.32%, annualized volatility is 7.60%, and the Sharpe ratio is 0.04 [3]. Group 3: Single - Variety Index Data Metal Index - Coal in the metal index had a decline of -0.27% [7]. Agricultural Products Sector - Palm oil had a decline of -0.72%, rapeseed oil had a decline of -1.12%, lumber had a decline of -0.54%, live pigs had a decline of -0.55%, and corn's data is incomplete [9]. Energy and Chemical Sector - Some varieties in the energy and chemical sector had declines such as -0.73%, -0.81%, -1.12%, and -0.11%, and polyethylene had an increase of 0.29% [12].

Group 1: Report Summary - Report Date: October 31, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Ling Chuanhui (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0019531) [1] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Group 2: Price and Volatility - The price range forecast for the asphalt main contract in the next month is 3000 - 3450 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 17.08% and a historical percentile of 24.70% over the past 3 years [2] Group 3: Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short asphalt futures (bu2512) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3650 - 3750 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs; they can also sell call options (bu2512C3500) with a 20% ratio at an entry range of 30 - 40 to reduce capital costs [2] Procurement Management - For enterprises with low procurement inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy asphalt futures (bu2512) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs in advance; they can also sell put options (bu2512C3500) with a 20% ratio at an entry range of 25 - 35 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [2] Group 4: Core Views - Due to news such as the US B - 1B bomber approaching Venezuela and US sanctions on Russia, both crude oil and asphalt have risen recently. However, short - term Venezuelan crude oil shipments are not affected. This week, asphalt supply decreased due to refinery maintenance, while demand in the spot market remained weak, mainly consuming social inventory. The inventory structure improved, with stable refinery inventory and declining social inventory. The problem of raw material shortage remains unsolved, so the asphalt cracking spread remains high. Recently, crude oil has rebounded strongly, causing the asphalt futures price to rise but the spot basis to weaken, indicating weakening demand. In the long - term, northern demand will end as the temperature drops, while southern demand may increase after the rain decreases. Currently, the peak season of asphalt has no unexpected performance. Due to recent external disturbances, it is recommended to wait and see or try short - selling after the futures price reaches the resistance level. It is necessary to pay attention to OPEC's latest meeting resolution and whether the Middle East OSP quote will be lowered as expected [3] Group 5: Bullish Factors - The US sent bombers near Venezuela [6] - Refineries in Shandong (Shengxing and Lanqiao) started maintenance and stopped asphalt production [6] - The tariff confrontation between China and the US is expected to ease [6] - The US cancelled the "Trump - Putin meeting" and imposed more sanctions on Russia, including blacklisting two major Russian oil giants. Ukraine attacked Russian energy facilities, and the US purchased strategic oil reserves [7] Group 6: Bearish Factors - OPEC continued to increase production [7] Group 7: Price and Basis Data Spot Price - On October 31, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3230 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/day and 120 yuan/week; the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3470 yuan/ton, unchanged; the North China spot price was 3250 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/day and 90 yuan/week; the South China spot price was 3450 yuan/ton, unchanged [8] Basis - On October 31, 2025, the Shandong spot 12 - contract basis was - 24 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/day and 71 yuan/week; the Yangtze River Delta spot 12 - contract basis was 216 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/day and 49 yuan/week; the North China spot 12 - contract basis was - 4 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/day and 41 yuan/week; the South China spot 12 - contract basis was 196 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/day and 99 yuan/week [8] Cracking Spread - On October 31, 2025, the Shandong spot cracking spread against Brent was 104.2694 yuan/barrel, down 6.9316 yuan/day and 13.607 yuan/week; the futures main contract cracking spread against Brent was 106.6955 yuan/barrel, down 1.7328 yuan/day and 2.3432 yuan/week [8]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The caustic soda market is currently in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with inventory replenishment falling short of expectations, upstream inventory accumulation, and weak spot prices. Meanwhile, liquid chlorine is strong, leading to a decline in cost support [3]. - There are still expectations for the downstream aluminum plants' demand for caustic soda inventory in November - December, which may boost the spot market [3]. 3. Content Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for caustic soda is 2200 - 2400. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 22.75%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility over 3 years is 43.8% [2]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short caustic soda futures (SH2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 2400 - 2450, or sell call options (SH601C2400) with a 50% ratio at an entry range of 40 - 50 to lock in profits and reduce costs [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory and hoping to purchase according to orders, they can buy caustic soda futures (SH2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 2200 - 2250, or sell put options (SH601P2200) with a 50% ratio at an entry range of 40 - 50 to lock in purchase costs and reduce expenses [2]. 3.3 Market Data - **Futures Prices and Changes**: On October 31, 2025, the price of the caustic soda 05 contract was 2483 (up 3 or 0.12% from the previous day), the 09 contract was 2567 (down 4 or - 0.16%), and the 01 contract was 2310 (down 7 or - 0.3%) [4]. - **Spot Prices**: The 32 - alkali ex - factory prices in Shandong (Jinling and Haihua), Jiangsu (Xinpu, Jinqiao, etc.), and other regions remained mostly unchanged on October 31, 2025, except for a 1.5% decline in Shaanxi Beiyuan. The 50 - alkali and flake caustic soda prices also showed little change in most regions, with some slight declines in Shandong and Shaanxi [4][7][8]. - **Price Spreads**: The monthly spreads (5 - 9), (9 - 1), and (1 - 5) of caustic soda futures showed some changes on October 31, 2025. The brand/regional spreads of caustic soda remained mostly stable, with a slight decline in the 50 - alkali spread between Guangdong and Shandong [4][8]. 3.4 Market Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: There are expectations for the downstream aluminum plants' demand for caustic soda inventory in November - December, which may boost the spot market [3]. - **Negative Factors**: The caustic soda market is facing a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Alkali plants have high profits, leading to increased production and supply pressure. Non - aluminum inventory replenishment demand is lower than expected, and the alumina market is under pressure, which may affect the demand for caustic soda [3][6].