Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, while the short - term is in an overall oscillatory consolidation. For London gold, the support levels are at 3330 and then the 3300 integer mark, with resistance levels in the 3350 area, 3370, and 3400. For London silver, the support is at 37.5 and the resistance is in the 38.1 area and 39. The operation strategy is to maintain the idea of buying on dips [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [行情回顾] - On Monday, the precious metals market had a narrow - range oscillatory consolidation with light trading. The market is focused on the guidance of the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium on the Fed's future interest - rate cut prospects. Multiple investment banks on Monday evening dampened the optimistic expectations. Before the mid - September FOMC, one PCE, one non - farm payroll, and one CPI will be announced. Nomura expects Powell not to give a "clear commitment" on Friday; BofA expects Powell to hold a hawkish stance; Morgan Stanley expects Powell to emphasize inflation risks and resist the market's interest - rate cut expectations. The US dollar index rebounded, short - term US bonds oscillated, yields on medium - and long - term bonds rose, Bitcoin fell, crude oil oscillated, the Chinese stock market was strong, and European and American stock markets oscillated. Finally, the COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3378 per ounce, down 0.14%; the US silver 2509 contract closed at $38.065 per ounce, up 0.24%. The SHFE gold 2510 main contract was at 777.66 yuan per gram, up 0.32%; the SHFE silver 2510 contract was at 9204 yuan per kilogram, down 1.23%. Geopolitically, after the "Trump - Zelensky meeting", Trump called Putin and said he was arranging a tri - party meeting, and both Russia and the US support direct Russia - Ukraine negotiations; Hamas agreed to a new Gaza cease - fire agreement proposed by the mediator [2]. [降息预期与基金持仓] - Expectations for the number of interest - rate cuts within the year have cooled, and the fantasy of a 50 - basis - point cut in September has been dashed. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 7.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 92.1%; in October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 3.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 41.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 55.2%; in December, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 0.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 12.6%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 45%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 41.6%. In terms of long - term funds, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 2.86 tons to 961.36 tons; the iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 28.25 tons to 15071.31 tons. In terms of inventory, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 15.7 tons to 1150.8 tons per day; as of the week ending August 8, SGX silver inventory decreased by 64.5 tons to 1304.5 tons per week [3]. [本周关注] - This week's data is light. Moderate attention should be paid to the US weekly initial jobless claims, housing data, and the US S&P manufacturing and services PMI. In terms of events, focus on the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium. At 22:00 on Friday, Fed Chairman Powell will give a speech at the symposium. Additionally, at 23:00 on Wednesday, Fed Governor Waller will give a speech at a blockchain seminar in Wyoming. At 02:00 on Thursday, the Fed will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting; at 03:00, 2027 FOMC voter and Atlanta Fed President Bostic will give a speech on the economic outlook [4]. [贵金属期现价格表] - The table shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures and spot contracts, as well as the CME gold - silver ratio [5]. [库存持仓表] - The table presents the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE, CME, and SGX gold and silver inventories, as well as SHFE gold and silver positions and SPDR gold and SLV silver ETF holdings [16][17]. [股债商汇总览] - The table shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, US dollar - RMB exchange rate, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot, LmeS copper 03, 10 - year US Treasury yield, 10 - year US real interest rate, and 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread [23].

Group 1: Financial Futures Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - Domestic economic growth is showing a marginal slowdown, but there's no need for excessive anxiety as a package of economic - stabilizing policies are taking effect, and more policies may be introduced if economic data continues to decline. Overseas, the possibility of a September interest - rate cut is uncertain, and attention should be paid to US economic data and Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting [1]. - In the context of weakening consumption momentum and inflation concerns, the US economic downturn risk has significantly increased. The Jackson Hole meeting will be an important window to observe policy trends. The US dollar index may maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, and the USD/CNY exchange rate is likely to trade in the 7.15 - 7.23 range [2]. - The stock index was extremely active yesterday, but risk management is necessary. The market's short - term upward trend is driven by funds, sentiment, and a structural market, but it should not deviate from the economic fundamentals in the long term [3][4][5]. Summary by Directory - **Macro**: Track domestic high - frequency economic data. Pay attention to US economic data changes and policy signals from Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The stock - exchange linkage has not been achieved. The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1792 at 16:30, up 31 basis points from the previous trading day [1]. - **Stock Index**: Yesterday, the stock index rose significantly with large trading volume, and the market index reached a new high again. The trading volume of the two markets increased by 5195.51 billion yuan [3]. Group 2: Commodities Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - **Precious Metals**: Focus on the global central bank meeting. Precious metals are in a narrow - range shock. The medium - to - long - term trend may be bullish, and the short - term is in an overall shock adjustment [8][9][10]. - **Copper**: The price dropped slightly on Monday, and it may continue to fluctuate or be slightly stronger in the short term [11]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be in a strong - shock state; alumina is in a weak - shock state; cast aluminum alloy is in a strong - shock state [12][13]. - **Zinc**: The fundamentals remain unchanged, and it is in a weak - shock state [13]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The short - term trend may continue to fluctuate [14][15]. - **Tin**: It is mainly in a shock state, relatively strong [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The upside is limited, and profit - taking is recommended [17][18]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is in a narrow - range shock in the short term and is expected to enter a shock - strengthening state in the long term. Polysilicon's supply is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the component tender on Friday [19][20]. - **Lead**: It is in a narrow - range shock [20][21]. Summary by Directory - **Gold & Silver**: The market was in a narrow - range shock on Monday. The market is focusing on the global central bank meeting's guidance on the Fed's future interest - rate cut prospects. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3378 per ounce, down 0.14% [8]. - **Copper**: In July 2025, China's exports of unwrought copper and copper products increased by 35.4% year - on - year, and imports increased by 10.0% year - on - year [11]. - **Aluminum**: On August 15, the US expanded the scope of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports. Aluminum prices are expected to be in a strong - shock state, with a price range of 20300 - 20800 [12]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price was in a weak - shock state on the previous trading day. The supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and the demand is weak [13]. Group 3: Black Metals Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The macro - drive has weakened, and the fundamentals are showing signs of deterioration. However, the supply contraction expectation still exists, and the price decline is limited. The rebar 10 contract is expected to have support around 3100, and the hot - rolled coil around 3350 [24]. - **Iron Ore**: The shipment has increased significantly. The price is expected to fluctuate, and the downside is limited [25]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The short - term market speculation sentiment has cooled down. In the long - term, the market may fluctuate widely with emotions. The subsequent focus is on the changes in the finished product inventory [26][27]. Summary by Directory - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The supply of steel products is increasing while the demand is decreasing, and the inventory is accumulating faster than the seasonality. However, the absolute value of the total steel inventory is not high, and the cost support still exists [24]. - **Iron Ore**: The global iron ore shipment has increased significantly, and the price is oscillating downward. The price is expected to fluctuate, and the downside is not very pessimistic [25]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal supply is in a tight - balance state, and the coke supply is still tight in the short term. The market may fluctuate widely with emotions [26][27]. Group 4: Energy and Chemicals Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - **Crude Oil**: The overnight market rebounded slightly and continued to adjust weakly. The geopolitical risk has decreased, and the medium - term risk of a downward break has increased [29][30]. - **LPG**: The fundamentals have not changed much, and it maintains a loose situation [31][32]. - **PTA - PX**: In the short - term, follow the cost - end fluctuations and delivery logic. In the medium - term, do long the PTA processing fee at low levels [33][34]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: The peak - season expectation is emerging. Ethylene glycol is recommended to be bought at low levels, and the bottle - chip processing fee can be traded in a range [35][36][37]. - **Methanol**: Wait for the opportunity to go long. Consider closing 09 short positions near the reverse - flow window, and wait for the best buying point for the 01 contract [37]. - **PP**: It will continue to be in a shock pattern. Focus on the demand side and cost - end changes [38][39][40]. - **PE**: It will be in a shock pattern in the short term, and the subsequent trend depends on the recovery of downstream demand [40][41]. - **PVC**: The situation remains weak, and it is recommended to be short - allocated [41][42]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: They are in a range - shock state. For styrene, consider shorting the spread between pure benzene and styrene at high levels [43][44]. - **Fuel Oil**: It is still weak, and the short - term drive is downward [45]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The short - term is recommended to be on the sidelines [46]. - **Asphalt**: It follows the cost - end and is in a weak - shock state [47]. - **Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber**: The upside is under pressure, and it is expected to oscillate in the 15700 - 16100 range [47][48][49]. - **Urea**: It is in a range - shock state, and the 09 contract is expected to oscillate between 1650 and 1850 [49][50]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: They follow the shock. Pay attention to the cost - end price fluctuations for soda ash, policy guidance for glass, and downstream demand for caustic soda [50][51][52][53]. - **Pulp**: The upward momentum is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [53]. Summary by Directory - **Crude Oil**: The overnight market rebounded slightly. The geopolitical situation is cooling down, and the potential support for crude oil is weakening [29][30]. - **LPG**: The supply is still loose, and the demand has slightly improved. The inventory is at a high level [31]. - **PTA - PX**: The PX supply is expected to increase, and the PTA processing fee is at a historical low. Do long the PTA processing fee at low levels [33][34].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The supply side of asphalt remains stable, while the demand side is affected by rainfall and capital shortages, resulting in a failure to effectively release demand. The short - term peak season shows no over - expected performance, and the overall fundamentals are weakening month - on - month. [2] - In the medium and long term, demand is expected to improve as construction conditions get better in autumn, and the capital situation will be alleviated with the accelerated debt resolution of local governments in 2025. However, the peak season is not as prosperous as expected. [2] - The cost - side supply tightness expectation of asphalt is relieved due to the expected relaxation of US sanctions on Russia and OPEC's production increase. [2] 3. Content Summaries by Related Aspects a. Price and Volatility - The price range forecast of the asphalt main contract for the month is 3400 - 3750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.30% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 8.95%. [1] b. Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, to prevent inventory losses, they can short sell the bu2509 asphalt futures with a 25% hedging ratio at the price range of 3650 - 3750. [1] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory, to prevent the increase of procurement costs due to rising asphalt prices, they can buy the bu2509 asphalt futures with a 50% hedging ratio at the price range of 3300 - 3400. [1] c. Market Data - **Spot Prices**: On August 18, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3580 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan/day and 100 yuan/week), the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3730 yuan/ton (unchanged), the North China spot price was 3680 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the South China spot price was 3520 yuan/ton (unchanged). [7] - **Basis and Crack Spreads**: The Shandong spot 09 basis was 81 yuan/ton (down 42 yuan/day and 87 yuan/week), and the Shandong spot crack spread to Brent was 150.0877 yuan/barrel (down 6.8268 yuan/day and 7.7282 yuan/week). The futures main contract crack spread to Brent was 131.5458 yuan/barrel (up 2.1841 yuan/day and 8.2143 yuan/week). [7] d. Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: Low pressure on asphalt factories' warehouses, seasonal peak demand, low - level start - up with the expectation of catch - up construction in the South, and strong expectation of capacity reduction due to the "anti - involution" atmosphere. [6] - **Negative Factors**: An increase in the arrival of Ma Rui crude oil, the drag on demand by the short - term plum rain season in the South, slow destocking of social warehouses and weakening basis, and the potential increase in the start - up rate due to the consumption tax reform in Shandong. [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current speculation on mining license issues may be overheated. The market has two logics: one is the "step - by - step" upward chain of "futures rise - capacity release - increased ore consumption - ore price increase" driven by macro - sentiment and supply - side disturbances, which may lead to a temporary shortage of lithium ore and push up the price center of lithium salts; the other is the "negative feedback" cycle of "lithium salt decline - ore price loosening - lithium salt decline again" in the downward price cycle. The cost reduction also drives the downward movement of the price center of lithium carbonate. Overall, the futures market in the second half of the year is expected to rise in the third quarter and fall in the fourth quarter [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - **Price and Volatility**: The short - term strong support level of the lithium carbonate main contract is 65,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 42.2% and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 73.5% [2]. - **Contract Performance**: The closing price, trading volume, and open interest of the lithium carbonate main contract and LC2601 contract all increased. For example, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract rose from 86,900 yuan/ton to 89,240 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2,340 yuan/ton (2.69%) and a weekly increase of 8,240 yuan/ton (10.17%) [9]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The LC11 - 12 spread decreased from 320 to 0, a 100% decrease; the LC11 - 01 spread decreased from 480 to 200, a 58% decrease [11]. 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore**: The average daily prices of various lithium ores, such as lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone, all increased. For example, the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) rose from 2,100 yuan/ton to 2,185 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 85 yuan/ton (4.05%) and a weekly increase of 310 yuan/ton (16.53%) [15]. - **Carbon/Hydrogen Lithium**: The average daily prices of industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide all increased. For example, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose from 80,400 yuan/ton to 82,300 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1,900 yuan/ton (2.36%) and a weekly increase of 10,000 yuan/ton (13.83%) [18]. - **Downstream Products**: The average daily prices of downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and electrolytes also showed varying degrees of increase. For example, the average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate rose from 35,655 yuan/ton to 36,170 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 515 yuan/ton (1.44%) [23]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis**: The basis of lithium carbonate main contract and brand basis of different companies are provided. For example, the brand basis of Tianqi Lithium Industry (LI2CO3≥99.8%, LC2507) is 400 yuan/ton [26]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts increased from 21,939 to 23,485, an increase of 1,546. The warehouse receipts of some warehouses increased, such as Xiangyu Speed Transmission Shanghai, which increased from 1,870 to 2,010 [29][30]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - Production profit, theoretical delivery profit, and import profit of lithium carbonate are presented in the form of charts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [32]. 3.5 Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high product inventory and risk of impairment, it is recommended to short lithium carbonate futures (20% of inventory) and sell call options (20%) to lock in profits and hedge risks. Buying out - of - the - money put options is also recommended [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with future procurement plans, it is recommended to buy long - term lithium carbonate contracts according to the procurement plan to lock in procurement costs, and sell put options and buy out - of - the - money call options [2].

Group 1: Report Summary - The South China Composite Index fell by -0.15% based on the closing prices of adjacent trading days [1]. - Among the sector indices, the South China Precious Metals Index had the largest increase of 0.38%, and the South China Agricultural Products Index had the smallest increase of 0.11%. The South China Black Index had the largest decline of -0.85%, and the South China Non - Ferrous Metals Index had the smallest decline of -0.25% [1]. - Among the theme indices, the Oilseeds and Oils Index had the largest increase of 0.6%, and the Petrochemical Index had the smallest increase of 0.04%. The Black Raw Materials Index had the largest decline of -0.84%, and the Mini Composite Index had the smallest decline of -0.23% [1]. Group 2: Index Data - **South China Composite Index**: Today's close was 2532.31, yesterday's close was 2536.21, with a daily decline of -0.15%, an annualized return of -17.63%, and an annualized volatility of 13.21% [6]. - **Sector Index Performance**: Different sector indices had varying levels of increase and decrease, with precious metals rising and black sectors falling significantly [1]. - **Theme Index Performance**: Oilseeds and oils theme index showed a relatively large increase, while the black raw materials theme index had a large decline [1]. Group 3: Commodity Futures Single - Variety Index - In the agricultural products sector, palm oil had a 1.31% increase, rapeseed had a 1.73% increase, etc. In the energy and chemical sector, synthetic ammonia had a -0.84% decline, methanol had a -0.66% decline, etc. In the black sector, some coal - related products had different levels of increase and decrease [2][7].

国债期货日报 2025年8月18日 情绪宣泄 观点：继续寻底，关注政策信号 南华研究院 徐晨曦（Z0001908） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 盘面点评： 周一期债低开低走，品种全线收跌，TL跌幅最大。现券收益率全线上行，且期货盘后各期限仍在上行，尾盘 有所回落。公开市场7天逆回购净投放1545亿，另有1200亿国库金定存招标。资金面边际收紧，DR001升至 1.45%。 日内消息： 1.央行二季度货币政策执行报告：保持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见性，强化宏观政策取向一致性，稳 就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，落实落细适度宽松的货币政策。 行情研判： A股今日放量上涨，上证指数开盘站上3700点，盘中创出近10年来新高，风险情绪高涨。受此影响，债市大 跌。连续下跌后，需要警惕因产品赎回带来的负反馈效应，考虑到市场的稳定，央行或适时出手。目前风险 情绪难以扭转，如果政策方面没有表示，如大行买债或央行重启买债，债市将继续寻底，关注10年国债在 1.8%附近是否获得支撑。操作上不做空，谨慎的投资者暂时观望，激进欲抄底者小仓介入，拉开买入间隔。 | 数据一览 | | | | | | | | | ...

尿素产业风险管理日报 2025/08/18 张博（投资咨询证号：Z0021070） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 尿素价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 1650-1950 | 27.16% | 62.1% | | 甲醇 | 2200-2400 | 20.01% | 51.2% | | 聚丙烯 | 6800-7400 | 10.56% | 42.2% | | 塑料 | 6800-7400 | 15.24% | 78.5% | source： 南华研究 尿素套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 库存管 理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心尿素价格下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空尿 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - The stock market hit a new high again today. The technology sector represented by TMT continued to be favored by funds, while the pro - cyclical sectors were generally weak. The Shanghai Composite 50 Index rose only 0.21%, while the CSI 1000 Index soared 1.69% [4]. - In the short term, the stock market is driven by funds, sentiment, and structural market conditions. With low sensitivity to economic data and no obvious short - term negatives, continuous capital inflows, optimistic sentiment, and structural support from technology news have sustained the upward trend of the stock market [4]. - Technically, the CSI 300 Index is approaching the medium - to - long - term resistance line at around 4250. Traders should pay attention to its breakthrough. Although the market sentiment is high, in the long run, the market will not deviate from the economic fundamentals. Therefore, it is necessary for holders to manage risks [4]. - Strategy recommendation: Insurance strategy - hold spot and buy put options [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - The stock index showed significant volume expansion and overall growth today, with the market index hitting a new high. The trading volume of the two markets increased by 51.9551 billion yuan. All futures index varieties rose with increased volume [2]. Important Information - China supports all efforts conducive to the peaceful resolution of the crisis and welcomes the contact and improvement of relations between Russia and the US to promote the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis [3]. - The Ministry of Commerce extended the anti - subsidy investigation period for imported related dairy products originating from the EU [3]. Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 0.82 | 0.08 | 1.28 | 1.58 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 15.0257 | 7.4191 | 13.1737 | 29.3129 | | Trading volume MoM (10,000 lots) | 0.9502 | - 0.3105 | 0.969 | 3.5552 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 27.3598 | 10.7224 | 22.6003 | 39.2524 | | Open interest MoM (10,000 lots) | 1.5159 | 0.7111 | 0.3557 | 2.6482 | [4] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.85 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 1.73 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 3.09 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 276.4163 | | Trading volume MoM (billion yuan) | 51.9551 | [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - After the inventory data and coal prices weakened, the methanol 09 contract dropped significantly and gradually returned to fundamental pricing. The spread window between ports and the inland may open this week, and 09 short positions can be gradually closed near the reverse flow window. The 01 contract declined gradually as the 09 contract weakened, with the 9 - 1 spread around -100. There may still be room for the 9 - 1 reverse spread, but the best buying point for the 01 contract needs to wait [4]. - Iranian shipments exceeded expectations (700,000 tons shipped in August so far, expected to reach around 1 million tons this month), leading to significant port arrival pressure. The inventories in East and South China in August are almost full. Considering storage and resale costs, when the 9 - 1 spread reaches -120, selling the 09 contract for delivery provides a risk - free opportunity for the 01 contract. Overall, the expectation of port inventory accumulation remains strong, and the market is falling smoothly. However, the port goods have not reversed the flow (still short of around 20), and the willingness to hold goods needs to be strengthened. It is recommended to consider laying out long positions in the far - month contracts after the port reverse flow or storage fee increase and observe the port提货 situation [4]. - This week, the expected arrival of foreign vessels at ports is scattered, and the arrival volume is sufficient, so the port methanol inventory is expected to accumulate [4]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Price Range Forecast - The predicted monthly price range for methanol is 2200 - 2400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.01% and a historical percentile of 51.2% over 3 years. For polypropylene, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 10.56% and a historical percentile of 42.2%. For plastic, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 15.24% and a historical percentile of 78.5% [3]. Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: When the finished product inventory is high and there is concern about a methanol price decline, to prevent inventory losses, 25% of the methanol futures (MA2509) can be sold to lock in profits and make up for production costs at an entry range of 2250 - 2350. 50% of put options (MA2509P2) can be bought to prevent a sharp price drop, and 50% of call options (MA2509C2350) can be sold to reduce capital costs at an entry range of 45 - 60 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, to prevent rising methanol prices from increasing procurement costs, 50% of methanol futures (MA2509) can be bought at an entry range of 2200 - 2350. 75% of put options (MA2509P2) can be sold to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and if the price drops, the purchase price of spot methanol can be locked [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The Handysize ship transport market continued to rise this week, with the weekly freight rate increasing by over 2%. However, the BDI composite freight index and most sub - ship type freight indices decreased week - on - week, but the decline was not significant. Industrial product shipping demand remained strong, while agricultural product shipping demand showed a downward trend [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Summary - The Handysize ship transport market maintained an upward trend, with the weekly freight rate rising by over 2%. The BDI composite freight index and other sub - ship type freight indices decreased week - on - week, but the decline was small. Industrial product shipping demand, such as coal, iron ore, and other dry goods, remained high, supporting the demand for Capesize and Handysize ships. Agricultural product shipping demand, especially soybean imports, declined. During the 90 - day suspension of reciprocal tariff increases between China and the US, soybean trade, including freight and domestic commodity prices, deserves further attention [1]. 2. Spot Index Review 2.1 BDI Freight Index Analysis - On August 15, the BDI composite freight index and most ship - type freight indices decreased week - on - week. The Capesize ship freight index BCI had the largest decline, while the Handysize ship freight index continued to rise. Specifically, the BDI composite freight index closed at 2044 points, down 0.34% week - on - week; the BCI freight index closed at 3295 points, down 1.41% week - on - week; the BPI freight index closed at 1622 points, down 0.8% week - on - week; the BSI freight index closed at 1353 points, up 2.5% week - on - week; the BHSI freight index closed at 698 points, up 2.2% week - on - week [4]. 2.2 FDI Far East Dry Bulk Freight Index - On August 15, except for the continued improvement in the Handysize ship rental transport market, the FDI composite index and most sub - ship type rental freight rates declined. The FDI composite freight index closed at 1329.9 points, down 0.45% month - on - month; the FDI rental index closed at 1630.3 points, down 0.42% month - on - month. The Capesize ship rental index closed at 1719.06 points, down 1.16% month - on - month; the Panamax ship rental index closed at 1590.25 points, down 0.23% month - on - month; the Handysize ship rental index closed at 1552.01 points, up 0.48% month - on - month; the FDI freight index closed at 1129.64 points, down 0.47% month - on - month [9]. 3. Dry Bulk Shipping Situation Tracking 3.1 Number of Ships Used for Shipping in Sending Countries on the Day - On August 18, among major agricultural product sending countries, Brazil used 14 ships, Russia used 8 ships, Argentina used 21 ships, Canada used 3 ships, and Australia used 4 ships. Among major industrial product sending countries, Australia used 63 ships, Guinea used 27 ships, Indonesia used 44 ships, Russia used 25 ships, South Africa used 14 ships, Brazil used 12 ships, and the US used 13 ships [16]. 3.2 Analysis of Shipping Volume and Ship Usage on the Day - In agricultural product shipping, 7 ships were used for corn, 21 for wheat, 9 for soybeans, 7 for soybean meal, and 13 for sugar. In industrial product shipping, 120 ships were used for coal, 77 for iron ore, and 14 for other dry goods. By ship type, agricultural product shipping required the most Post - Panamax ships (19), followed by Supramax ships (18), and then Handysize ships (16). Industrial product shipping required the most Capesize ships (86), followed by Post - Panamax ships (71), and then Supramax ships (60) [17]. 4. Tracking of the Number of Ships at Major Ports - This week, the number of ships at Chinese and Indonesian ports continued to increase week - on - week, while the number of ships at Australian ports decreased significantly week - on - week. From August 1 to August 17, after adjustment, "one port decreased, and four ports increased." The number of dry - bulk ships at Chinese ports increased by 9; the number of ships at six Australian ports decreased by 12; the number of ships at six Indonesian ports increased by 1; the number of ships at five Brazilian ports increased by 6; the number of ships at one South African port increased by 3 [18]. 5. Relationship between Freight and Commodity Prices - On August 15, Brazilian soybeans were priced at $39 per ton, and the near - term shipping quote was 4040.42 yuan per ton. The latest quote for the BCI C10_14 route freight was $25535 per day, and the latest quote for iron ore's CIF price was $119.6 per thousand tons. The latest quote for the BPI P3A_03 route freight was $13956 per day, and the latest quote for the CIF price of thermal coal was 554.88 yuan per ton. The Handysize ship freight index was quoted at 691 points, and the price of 4 - meter medium - grade ACFR radiata pine was $116 per cubic meter [22].