Report Information - Report Title: Pure Benzene - Styrene Risk Management Daily Report - Date: October 31, 2025 - Analyst: Dai Yifan (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0015428) [2] Price Forecast - Pure Benzene Price Range (Monthly): 5,200 - 5,800 yuan/ton [3] - Styrene Price Range (Monthly): 6,200 - 6,800 yuan/ton [3] - Styrene Current Volatility (20 - day rolling): 16.41% [3] - Styrene Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 - year): 85.8% [3] Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - Strategy 1: Short styrene futures (EB2512) to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 6,550 - 6,600 yuan/ton [3] - Strategy 2: Sell call options (EB2512C6600) to collect premiums and reduce capital costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 65 - 90 [3] Procurement Management - Strategy 1: Buy styrene futures (EB2512) to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 6,350 - 6,400 yuan/ton [3] - Strategy 2: Sell put options (EB2512P6400) to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, with a hedging ratio of 75% and an entry range of 70 - 90 [3] Core Contradictions Pure Benzene - Sanctions on some Chinese refineries by the US, UK, and EU have affected pure benzene production. After adjusting the supply forecast, pure benzene is expected to accumulate inventory in Q4 [4] - In October, pure benzene imports were low in the first half and are expected to increase in late - October to early - November, leading to port inventory accumulation [4] - High supply and weak demand (downstream production and maintenance co - exist, and the peak season may not be prosperous) will keep the inventory accumulation pattern unchanged, and pure benzene is expected to be weak [4] Styrene - 1.2 million tons of new capacity has been put into production, and supply will increase after stable operation [4] - Although the balance sheet shows de - stocking in Q4, high inventory and expected inventory accumulation in Q1 next year pose great de - stocking pressure [4] - With many important domestic and international meetings, there are both long and short factors for energy and chemical products. Pure benzene and styrene lack upward momentum and are sensitive to macro trends and crude oil prices [4] Bullish Factors - Five - department plan to improve the urban business environment [5] - Shutdowns of some styrene plants in Tianjin and Guangdong due to equipment problems [5] - US - China trade talks result in the cancellation or suspension of some sanctions [7][4] Bearish Factors - Slow de - stocking of styrene in Jiangsu ports as of October 27, 2025, with 19.3 tons of inventory [8] - Production cuts of downstream ABS and possible delay of new ABS plant operation [8] Basis and Spread Changes Basis Changes - Pure benzene basis in East China decreased significantly on October 31, 2025, compared with the previous day [9] - Styrene basis in East China also decreased on October 31, 2025, compared with the previous day [9] Spread Changes - Pure benzene and styrene paper - cargo spreads and other spreads showed various changes on October 31, 2025, compared with the previous day [10] Industry Chain Prices - Brent crude oil price remained at 64.03 dollars/barrel on October 31, 2025 [10] - Pure benzene and styrene prices in different markets and futures contracts had different changes on October 31, 2025, compared with the previous day and the previous week [10][11] - Profits in the pure benzene - styrene industry chain also showed different trends [11]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall cotton harvest progress in Xinjiang has exceeded 80%. As of October 30, 2025, the cumulative national new - year cotton notarized inspection volume was 168 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 45.95%. New cotton supply will continue to increase, pressuring cotton prices. Downstream demand is relatively flat, and cloth mills' finished products are slightly accumulating inventory. Although the Sino - US trade situation is improving, the US still imposes higher tariffs on Chinese textile and clothing exports than on Southeast Asian countries [1]. - In the short - term, the output in southern Xinjiang is lower than expected, and the new cotton purchase price is relatively firm. There is still hedging pressure around 13,600 - 13,800, and downstream demand is weak, lacking upward momentum for cotton prices. In the long - term, domestic textile production capacity has expanded significantly, increasing the rigid demand for cotton. Although domestic cotton production has increased, there is still a need to import foreign cotton, but the probability of further increasing import quotas is low, so the new - year domestic cotton supply and demand may still be tight [3][16]. - The trend of cotton prices is expected to be a wide - range shock, with the CF2601 contract in the range of 13,400 - 13,800. Short - term short - selling of CF2601 and long - term long - position layout of CF2605 at low levels are recommended. Pay attention to the CF1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity and the opportunity to widen the cotton - yarn spread [22]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Supply side: The overall cotton harvest progress in Xinjiang is over 80%, and new cotton supply is increasing. The purchase price in southern Xinjiang is relatively firm, while that in northern Xinjiang has slightly decreased [1]. - Demand side: Downstream load is basically stable. Some yarn mills are making price - based purchases, but overall demand is flat, and cloth mills' finished products are accumulating inventory. The US still imposes 35% - 50% tariffs on Chinese textile and clothing exports [1]. - Near - term trading logic: Southern Xinjiang's output is lower than expected, and the purchase price is firm. There is still hedging pressure around 13,600 - 13,800, and downstream demand is weak [3]. - Long - term trading logic: Domestic textile production capacity has expanded, increasing cotton demand. Although domestic production has increased, there is a need to import foreign cotton, but the probability of increasing import quotas is low, so supply and demand may be tight [16]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - Market trend: Wide - range shock, with the CF2601 contract in the range of 13,400 - 13,800. - Strategy: Short - term short - selling of CF2601, long - term long - position layout of CF2605 at low levels. Pay attention to the CF1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity and the opportunity to widen the cotton - yarn spread [22]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Price range forecast: The monthly price range of cotton is 13,400 - 13,800, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0767 and a historical 3 - year percentile of 0.153 [20]. - Risk management strategies: For inventory management, short Zhengzhou cotton futures and sell call options. For procurement management, buy Zhengzhou cotton futures and sell put options [20]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - Futures data: Zhengzhou cotton 01, 05, and 09 contracts all rose slightly this week. - Spot data: CC Index 3128B, 2227B, and 2129B all rose slightly. - Spread data: CF1 - 5 spread was - 10, CF5 - 9 spread was - 150, and CF9 - 1 spread was 160. - Import price: FC Index M rose by 1.33%, and FCY Index C32s fell by 0.13%. - Yarn data: Futures and spot prices of yarn both rose slightly [21][23]. 2. Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive information: The US canceled the 10% fentanyl tariff on Chinese goods and suspended the 24% reciprocal tariff for another year in the new round of Sino - US consultations. As of October 23, the national new cotton picking, delivery, processing, and sales rates all increased year - on - year. In September, China's clothing and textile retail sales increased year - on - year and month - on - month. In September 2025, cotton product exports and Japan's clothing imports increased [23][24]. - Negative information: As of October 15, the national commercial cotton inventory increased by 68.37% compared to the end of September [25]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Follow the progress of cotton processing and production determination in Xinjiang. Pay attention to the release of the USDA report, US cotton seedling conditions, and export situation [26]. 3. Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend and capital movement: Zhengzhou cotton tried to rise this week but lacked momentum. The 01 contract's positions decreased, and market sentiment was cautious [37]. - Month - spread structure: The current cotton month - spread shows a contango structure starting from the 01 contract. Near - month contracts are relatively weak due to increased supply and hedging pressure, while far - month contracts are expected to have tight supply and demand at the end of the year. After Sino - US consultations, the near - month trend was slightly stronger, but the overall C structure remained, and there is still pressure above the 01 contract [40]. - Basis structure: This week, as Zhengzhou cotton rebounded and new cotton supply increased, the basis further declined. The basis of the same - quality spot is between CF01 + 1000 - 1350 [44]. 4. Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Downstream Spinning Profit Tracking - Xinjiang yarn mills have cost advantages and maintain certain profits, while inland mills were slightly in the red in the third quarter. Currently, yarn prices are basically stable, new cotton purchase prices are firm, and the immediate spinning profit of domestic yarn mills has slightly declined [46]. 4.2 Import Profit Tracking - China is a large cotton importer. This year, cotton import profits are considerable, but the import quota is low. The additional 200,000 - ton sliding - scale tariff quota issued in August has limited impact on the market. In September 2025, China's cotton imports were 1 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 300,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 200,000 tons [48]. 5. Supply and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - New - year Xinjiang cotton is gradually coming onto the market. A bumper harvest is basically certain, but the output increase may narrow due to lower yields in southern Xinjiang and lower lint percentage in most areas. It is tentatively estimated that the new - year cotton import volume will be 1.1 million tons. Domestic cotton consumption is not overly pessimistic due to the expansion of Xinjiang's spinning capacity and high operating rates [51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests paying attention to central bank policy operations. Given that the economic data in October continued to weaken, which may boost the expectation of monetary easing and be beneficial to the bond market, investors are advised to hold medium - term long positions and avoid chasing high in short - term trading [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1. Market Conditions - On Friday, Treasury bond futures with maturities within 10 years fluctuated. T slightly rose, TF and TS slightly fell, while TL opened higher and closed significantly higher. The funding situation was loose, with DR001 at around 1.32%. The open - market reverse repurchase was 35.51 billion yuan, with a net injection of 18.71 billion yuan [1] - A - share sentiment declined and continued to close lower, but it had little positive impact on the bond market. The official manufacturing PMI in October dropped significantly and was lower than expected, with new orders falling notably, indicating a contraction in demand and increased economic downward pressure, which pushed down long - term yields more significantly, while short - term interest rates declined to a limited extent [3] 3.2. Important Information - The official manufacturing PMI in October was 49, down from the previous value of 49.8. The PMIs of high - tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods industries were 50.5%, 50.2%, and 50.1% respectively, remaining in the expansion range and significantly higher than the overall manufacturing level [2] - Pan Gongsheng stated that policies and tools to address macro - economic and financial market fluctuations are being studied and reserved, and the "involution - style" competition and fund idling in the financial industry are being continuously rectified [2] 3.3. Futures Contracts Data | Contract | Price on 2025 - 10 - 31 | Price on 2025 - 10 - 30 | Price Change | Position on 2025 - 10 - 31 (lots) | Position on 2025 - 10 - 30 (lots) | Position Change (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.544 | 102.56 | - 0.016 | 84,178 | 84,235 | - 57 | | TF2512 | 106.065 | 106.075 | - 0.01 | 178,068 | 176,888 | 1,180 | | T2512 | 108.665 | 108.635 | 0.03 | 284,696 | 282,218 | 2,478 | | TL2512 | 116.64 | 116.19 | 0.45 | 182,844 | 183,707 | - 863 | [4] | Contract | Basis (CTD) on 2025 - 10 - 31 | Basis (CTD) on 2025 - 10 - 30 | Basis Change | Main Contract Trading Volume on 2025 - 10 - 31 (lots) | Main Contract Trading Volume on 2025 - 10 - 30 (lots) | Trading Volume Change (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS | - 0.0721 | - 0.0759 | 0.0038 | 30,841 | 33,991 | - 3,150 | | TF | - 0.0427 | - 0.0675 | 0.0248 | 51,145 | 54,366 | - 3,221 | | T | 0.1084 | - 0.0425 | 0.1509 | 66,178 | 68,993 | - 2,815 | | TL | 0.0476 | 0.0738 | - 0.0262 | 103,750 | 128,226 | - 24,476 | [6] 3.4. Other Market Data - The report also includes charts and data on the basis and implied repo rate (IRR) of main Treasury bond futures contracts, long - term and ultra - long - term bond interest rate trends, deposit - taking institution financing rates and policy rates, exchange financing rates, inter - bank certificate of deposit yields, fund stratification, US Treasury yield trends, and the US - China yield spread and RMB exchange rate [7][10][11][13][16][18]

| 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 11.8-12.6 | 15.17% | 3.2% | source： 南华研究,wind 南华镍&不锈钢产业风险管理日报 2025/10/31 南华新能源&贵金属研究团队 夏莹莹 投资咨询证号：Z0016569 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 沪镍区间预测 不锈钢区间预测 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1.25-1.31 | 8.66% | 5.8% | source： 南华研究,wind,同花顺 沪镍风险管理策略 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 策略等级（满分 5） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产品销售价格下 跌，库存有减值 | 根据库存水平做空沪镍期货来锁定利润，对冲现 货下跌风险 | NI主力合约 | 卖出 | 60% | 2 | | | ...

玻璃纯碱产业风险管理日报 2025/10/31 寿佳露（投资咨询证号：Z0020569） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 玻璃纯碱价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玻璃 | 1000-1300 | 27.83% | 74.5% | | 纯碱 | 1100-1400 | 17.50% | 8.5% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 玻璃纯碱套保策略表 | | 行 为 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 导 | | | | | | （%） | | | | 向 | | | | | | | | | | 库 存 | | | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据 企业的库存情况，做空玻璃期货来 | FG2601 | 卖出 | 50% | 1250 | | | | 产成品库存偏 高，担心玻 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - Today, except for a slight gain in the CSI 1000 Index, all other stock indices declined. The trading volume of the two markets decreased. The number of rising stocks in the two markets reached 3,759, with a rise - fall ratio of about 5:2, resulting in a situation where stocks rose but indices fell. The previously strong heavy - weight and technology stocks collectively pulled back, and sectors such as computing power, semiconductors, and rare earths led the decline, dragging down the market index and the science - innovation sector. Meanwhile, low - level small and medium - cap stocks saw a compensatory rise. The manufacturing PMI in October unexpectedly declined, reflecting the current weak domestic supply and demand situation. The market expects the accelerated introduction of incremental policies. The volume - weighted average basis of index futures showed an inverse relationship with the index trend, indicating a game between long and short forces. In general, in the short term, the stock index is expected to fluctuate mainly due to capital games. It is recommended to hold positions and wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Today, except for a slight gain in the CSI 1000 Index, all other stock indices declined. Taking the CSI 300 Index as an example, it closed down 1.47%. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets increased by 1656.47 billion yuan. Index futures all declined with increased volume [2]. Important Information - The China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index in October was 49%. - The China Non - Manufacturing Business Activity Index in October was 50.1% [3]. Strategy Recommendation - **Futures Market Observation** - The intraday percentage changes of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM were - 1.43%, - 1.13%, - 0.89%, and 0.02% respectively. - The trading volumes were 139,862 lots, 63,349 lots, 145,316 lots, and 253,282 lots respectively. - The trading volume changes compared to the previous period were 2,486 lots, - 600 lots, - 22,972 lots, and 4,629 lots respectively. - The open interests were 271,131 lots, 99,608 lots, 254,465 lots, and 362,383 lots respectively. - The open interest changes compared to the previous period were 397 lots, - 2,436 lots, - 5,746 lots, and - 6,696 lots respectively [4]. - **Spot Market Observation** - The percentage changes of the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Component Index were - 0.81% and - 1.14% respectively. - The ratio of rising to falling stocks was 2.42. - The trading volume of the two markets was 23,177.92 billion yuan, with a decrease of 1,038.84 billion yuan compared to the previous period [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the Nanhua Composite Index dropped by 6.76 points, a decline of -0.27%. The most influential varieties were crude oil and palm oil, with the crude oil variety index having a change of -1.29% and a contribution of -0.21%, and the palm oil variety index having a change of -3.92% and a contribution of -0.18% [1][2]. - The Nanhua Industrial Products Index fell by 5.58 points, a decrease of -0.16%. The most influential varieties were crude oil and methanol, with the crude oil variety index contributing -0.23% and the methanol variety index contributing -0.14% [1][2]. - The Nanhua Metal Index remained unchanged, with the most influential variety being iron ore, contributing 0.63% [1][2]. - The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index declined by 15.63 points, a fall of -0.97%. The most influential variety was crude oil, contributing -0.32% [2]. - The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index decreased by 6.53 points, a decline of -0.62%. The most influential variety was palm oil, contributing -0.52% [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Data Overview | Index Name | This Week's Closing | Last Week's Closing | Change in Points | Change Rate | This Week's Maximum | This Week's Minimum | Volatility | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Composite Index NHCI | 2538.87 | 2545.63 | -6.76 | -0.27% | 2563.19 | 2538.87 | 24.32 | | Precious Metals Index NHPMI | 1514.74 | 1524.01 | -9.26 | -0.61% | 1524.01 | 1472.96 | 51.05 | | Industrial Products Index NHII | 3556.67 | 3562.25 | -5.58 | -0.16% | 3606.61 | 3556.67 | 49.94 | | National Index NHMI | 6485.90 | 6439.19 | 46.71 | 0.73% | 6556.67 | 6439.19 | 117.48 | | Energy and Chemical Index NHECI | 1590.82 | 1606.45 | -15.63 | -0.97% | 1617.32 | 1590.82 | 26.50 | | Non - ferrous Metals Index NHNFI | 1747.44 | 1753.74 | -6.30 | -0.36% | 1770.14 | 1746.52 | 23.62 | | Black Index NHFI | 2565.73 | 2516.31 | 49.42 | 1.96% | 2589.39 | 2516.31 | 73.08 | | Agricultural Products Index NHAI | 1049.31 | 1055.84 | -6.53 | -0.62% | 1058.58 | 1049.31 | 9.27 | | Gradual Composite New Index NHCIMi | 1177.34 | 1180.48 | -3.14 | -0.27% | 1190.73 | 1177.34 | 13.40 | | Energy Consumption NHEI | 1034.65 | 1042.63 | -7.98 | -0.77% | 1051.57 | 1034.65 | 16.93 | | Petrochemical New Ammonia NHPCI | 892.65 | 898.37 | -5.72 | -0.64% | 906.02 | 892.65 | 13.38 | | Coal - based Chemical Engineering Investment NHCCI | 945.83 | 962.13 | -16.30 | -1.69% | 965.14 | 945.83 | 19.31 | | Black Raw Materials Consumption NHFMI | 1091.71 | 1066.81 | 24.90 | 2.33% | 1102.09 | 1066.81 | 35.27 | | Building Materials Index NHBMI | 713.22 | 705.61 | 7.61 | 1.08% | 724.32 | 705.61 | 18.71 | | Oilseeds and Oils Index NHOOI | 1227.58 | 1235.04 | -7.45 | -0.60% | 1237.13 | 1226.26 | 10.88 | | Economic Crops Index NHAECI | 916.78 | 905.29 | 11.49 | 1.27% | 918.58 | 905.29 | 13.30 | [3] 3.2 Nanhua Variety Index Arbitrage Data - **Plate Index Ratios**: The ratio of the precious metals index to the composite index decreased from 0.599 to 0.597; the ratio of the metal index to the industrial products index increased from 1.808 to 1.824; the ratio of the industrial products index to the composite index increased from 1.399 to 1.401; the ratio of the energy and chemical index to the industrial products index decreased from 0.451 to 0.447; the ratio of the non - ferrous metals index to the industrial products index decreased from 0.492 to 0.491; the ratio of the black index to the industrial products index increased from 0.706 to 0.721; the ratio of the agricultural products index to the composite index decreased from 0.415 to 0.413 [9]. - **Other Ratios**: The ratio of gold to silver decreased from 2.755 to 2.682; the ratio of copper to the non - ferrous metals index decreased from 4.138 to 4.121; the ratio of aluminum to the non - ferrous metals index increased from 0.667 to 0.672; the ratio of zinc to the non - ferrous metals index increased from 0.523 to 0.525; the ratio of nickel to the non - ferrous metals index decreased from 0.914 to 0.906; the ratio of tin to the non - ferrous metals index increased from 1.365 to 1.369; the ratio of lead to the non - ferrous metals index decreased from 0.659 to 0.654; the ratio of silicon to the non - ferrous metals index increased from 0.182 to 0.186; the ratio of coke to coking coal decreased from 0.553 to 0.543; the ratio of rebar to the black index remained almost unchanged; the ratio of iron ore to the black index increased from 2.778 to 2.827; the ratio of polypropylene to polyethylene decreased from 1.770 to 1.769; the ratio of polypropylene to methanol increased from 2.862 to 2.951; the ratio of PTA to crude oil increased from 0.517 to 0.531; the ratio of asphalt to crude oil decreased from 0.452 to 0.450; the ratio of fuel oil to crude oil decreased from 1.285 to 1.270; the ratio of soybean meal to rapeseed meal increased from 2.433 to 2.506; the ratio of soybean oil to palm oil increased from 1.096 to 1.131; the ratio of soybean oil to rapeseed oil increased from 1.123 to 1.154; the ratio of rapeseed oil to palm oil increased from 0.975 to 0.980; the ratio of soybean oil to soybean meal increased from 2.937 to 3.036; the ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal decreased from 0.902 to 0.871; the ratio of corn to starch decreased from 1.379 to 1.378 [9] 3.3 Contribution of Each Variety to Index Changes - **Raw Materials and Others**: Raw materials had an average position of 3,685,516 hands, a month - on - month decrease of 8.72%, and a position share of 9.50%; polyethylene had an average position of 654,766 hands, a month - on - month decrease of 2.97%, and a position share of 1.69%; glass had an average position of 2,140,824 hands, a month - on - month increase of 6.65%, and a position share of 5.52%; hot - rolled coils had an average position of 1,989,219 hands, a month - on - month increase of 1.30%, and a position share of 5.13%; soda ash had an average position of 1,839,506 hands, a month - on - month decrease of 3.55%, and a position share of 4.74%; corn had an average position of 1,773,822 hands, a month - on - month increase of 1.19%, and a position share of 4.57%; methanol had an average position of 1,630,675 hands, a month - on - month increase of 11.44%, and a position share of 4.20%; PVC had an average position of 1,488,823 hands, a month - on - month increase of 1.33%, and a position share of 3.84%; PTA had an average position of 1,433,006 hands, a month - on - month decrease of 5.53%, and a position share of 3.69%; coking coal had an average position of 951,003 hands, a month - on - month increase of 8.61%, and a position share of 2.45%; iron ore had an average position of 927,488 hands, a month - on - month decrease of 1.31%, and a position share of 2.39%; cotton had an average position of 913,472 hands, a month - on - month decrease of 0.09%, and a position share of 2.35%; potassium carbonate had an average position of 879,432 hands, a month - on - month increase of 16.36%, and a position share of 2.27%; propylene had an average position of 874,578 hands, a month - on - month increase of 0.69%, and a position share of 2.25%; soybean oil had an average position of 795,020 hands, a month - on - month increase of 0.22%, and a position share of 2.05%; eggs had an average position of 698,987 hands, a month - on - month decrease of 9.85%, and a position share of 1.80%; silver had an average position of 697,383 hands, a month - on - month decrease of 9.82%, and a position share of 1.80%; rapeseed meal had an average position of 694,377 hands, a month - on - month increase of 1.64%, and a position share of 1.79% [13] - **Other Varieties**: Rand had an average position of 623,292 hands, a month - on - month increase of 17.01%, and a position share of 1.61%; styrene had an average position of 621,170 hands, a month - on - month increase of 0.70%, and a position share of 1.60%; powder had an average position of 607,835 hands, a month - on - month increase of 11.14%, and a position share of 1.57%; sugar had an average position of 551,877 hands, a month - on - month decrease of 2.90%, and a position share of 1.42%; palm oil had an average position of 535,294 hands, a month - on - month increase of 8.60%, and a position share of 1.38%; manganese silicon had an average position of 523,182 hands, a month - on - month decrease of 7.21%, and a position share of 1.35%; alumina had an average position of 506,061 hands, a month - on - month increase of 7.05%, and a position share of 1.30%; fuel oil had an average position of 459,791 hands, a month - on - month decrease of 3.88%, and a position share of 1.18%; industrial silicon had an average position of 426,870 hands, a month - on - month decrease of 1.63%, and a position share of 1.10%; rapeseed oil had an average position of 383,029 hands, a month - on - month decrease of 6.51%, and a position share of 0.99%; urea had an average position of 357,549 hands, a month - on - month decrease of 10.70%, and a position share of 0.92%; a certain variety had an average position of 354,585 hands, a month - on - month increase of 4.78%, and a position share of 0.91%; ethylene glycol had an average position of 353,015 hands, a month - on - month decrease of 4.09%, and a position share of 0.91%; gold had an average position of 347,369 hands, a month - on - month decrease of 6.12%, and a position share of 0.89%; asphalt had an average position of 341,230 hands, a month - on - month decrease of 5.78%, and a position share of 0.88%; pulp had an average position of 338,232 hands, a month - on - month decrease of 8.35%, and a position share of 0.87%; silicon iron had an average position of 333,671 hands, a month - on - month decrease of 13.67%, and a position share of 0.86% [13] 3.4 Nanhua Sector Index Weekly Data - **Industrial Products Index**: Closed at 3,556.67 this week, down 0.16% from last week. The most influential varieties were crude oil and methanol, with contributions of - 0.23% and - 0.14% respectively. There were 21 commodities in total, 6 rising, and 14 falling [15] - **Metal Index**: Closed at 6,485.90 this week, up 0.73% from last week. The most influential variety was iron ore, contributing 0.63%. There were 13 commodities in total, 3 rising [15] - **Energy and Chemical Index**: Closed at 1,590.82 this week, down 0.97% from last week. The most influential variety was crude oil, contributing - 0.32%. There were 20 commodities in total [15] - **Agricultural Products Index**: Closed at 1,049.31 this week, down 0.62% from last week. The most influential variety was palm oil, contributing - 0.52%. There were 13 commodities in total, 6 rising [15] - **Black Index**: Closed at 2,565.73 this week, up 1.96% from last week. The most influential varieties were iron ore, rebar, and coke, with contributions of 1.15%, 0.69%, and

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Oil prices continue to face pressure, with nearly half of the risk premium due to sanctions on Russia reversed. The recent decline is mainly because concerns about supply due to sanctions on Russia have receded, as Russian energy is still recognized by many countries, and India plans to continue purchasing discounted Russian oil through small suppliers. Meanwhile, OPEC+ may slightly increase production in December, and the International Energy Agency points out that the impact of sanctions on price hikes is limited, leading to a rise in bearish sentiment in the market. In the short term, API data shows a significant decline in US crude oil, gasoline, and diesel inventories. Additionally, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting and the Sino-US leaders' meeting may boost sentiment, causing oil prices to fluctuate. However, in the medium to long term, the pressure of oversupply remains, and it is highly likely that oil prices will decline after a rebound. High volatility risks need to be watched out for [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Trading Strategy - Unilateral: It is recommended to wait and see for now and go short on rallies [3]. - Arbitrage: Close short positions on the monthly spread at an appropriate time and wait and see in the short term [3]. Logic梳理 - Core event games dominate short - term directions: The core contradiction in the short - term market focuses on the outcomes and expectation gaps of two key events. One is the OPEC+ video conference on November 2nd. The market generally expects a continuation of the small - scale production increase rhythm, with a planned production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in December for the third consecutive month to gradually restore the previously suspended production capacity of 1.66 million barrels per day. The core appeal is to regain the market share taken by US shale oil, and the political consideration of Saudi Crown Prince's subsequent visit to the US further strengthens the rationality of the production increase. The other is the trend of economic and trade relations after the Sino - US APEC meeting. Although short - term sentiment support is limited, if a substantial cooperation breakthrough is achieved, it will directly boost the expectation of oil demand; otherwise, it may lead to a decline in sentiment. The outcomes of these two events will break the current consolidation pattern and become the key triggers for short - term direction changes [7]. - Supply - demand marginal tightness and looseness switching intensify fluctuations: The supply side shows dual characteristics of "sanction disturbances + controllable production increase." The US has imposed secondary sanctions on Russian Rosneft and Lukoil, freezing their assets in the US and banning third - party transactions, which has led major buyers such as India to plan to cut Russian oil imports, causing a short - term impact on the global supply structure of about 2.2 million barrels per day and pushing up the tense sentiment in the spot market. However, the controllable production increase rhythm of OPEC+ and the recovery of Libyan supply (production increased to 1.14 million barrels per day in October, the highest since July) form a hedge to prevent the supply side from tightening excessively. The demand side depends on marginal changes in inventory. The US EIA crude oil inventory previously showed the largest decline in nearly two months (a decrease of 6.9 million barrels), and the rebound in refinery operating rates has driven short - term demand improvement. However, terminal consumption lacks resilience under the background of a weak global economy. The rapid switching of the supply - demand marginal balance leads to intensified oil price fluctuations [8]. - Sentiment and capital aspects amplify short - term elasticity: Market sentiment is driven by the resonance of geopolitical risks and volatility. The escalation of US sanctions on Russia has led to a geopolitical premium, pushing the daily increase of Brent crude oil to 5.7% at one point. At the same time, the CBOE crude oil volatility index (OVX) has fluctuated significantly recently, and the implied volatility in the options market has soared to 56%, reflecting the market's strong expectation of short - term fluctuations. The capital aspect has also followed up. CFTC data shows that the net long speculative positions in WTI crude oil have increased significantly, indicating that institutions have reached a consensus on a short - term rebound. However, a high concentration of positions also means that if the event fails to meet expectations, it may trigger a rapid liquidation and pullback. Coupled with investors' wait - and - see sentiment towards policies and geopolitics, short - term capital games have further amplified the oscillation elasticity of oil prices in the range of $60 - $65 [9]. Related Information - EIA natural gas report: As of the week ending October 24th, the total US natural gas inventory was 3.882 trillion cubic feet, an increase of 74 billion cubic feet from the previous week, an increase of 29 billion cubic feet from the same period last year, with a year - on - year increase of 0.8%, and 171 billion cubic feet higher than the five - year average, with an increase of 4.6% [10]. - US President Trump: A very large - scale agreement may be reached, involving the purchase of oil and gas from Alaska [11]. - Singapore Enterprise Development Agency (ESG): As of the week ending October 29th, Singapore's fuel oil inventory increased by 1.754 million barrels, reaching a two - week high of 24.781 million barrels [11]. Global Crude Oil Market Price and Spread Changes - The report provides price and spread data for various crude oils such as Brent, WTI, SC, Dubai, and Oman on different dates (October 31st, October 30th, and October 24th, 2025), including daily and weekly price changes, monthly spreads, and cross - regional spreads [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The expectation of tight supply of high - protein edible soybeans supports the anti - seasonal price increase. However, with the progress of Sino - US negotiations to resume agricultural product trade, the domestic soybean market is expected to face short - term pressure. The market also needs to pay attention to whether the selling pressure emerges and the behavior changes caused by sentiment fermentation [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price Prediction and Risk Strategy - **Price Range Prediction**: The predicted monthly price range for the bean one 11 - contract is 3900 - 4100, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.37% and a historical percentile of 26.0% [2]. - **Risk Strategies**: - **Inventory Management for Sellers**: For those with long positions due to large new - bean selling pressure in autumn or weakened bargaining power during the concentrated listing period, strategies include shorting bean one futures (A2601) with a 30% hedging ratio when the price is above 4100, and selling call options (A2511 - C - 4050) with a 30% ratio at 30 - 50 (holding) to increase the selling price [2]. - **Procurement Management for Buyers**: For those worried about rising raw - material prices, the strategy is to mainly wait to purchase spot in the medium term and focus on long - term procurement management. Long positions in A2603 and A2605 are considered after the price bottoms out in the fourth quarter [2]. Core Contradictions and Market Influences - **Likely Positive Factors**: The decrease in the national high - protein soybean yield supports market sentiment, and the uninitiated state - reserve purchase restricts price decline. But the impact of yield reduction is gradually weakening [3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The progress of Sino - US trade negotiations to resume agricultural product trade is negative for the domestic soybean market. Also, as repayment orders are executed, the rigid demand at the procurement end may decline, and there is still a bottleneck in the sales of medium - and low - protein soybeans [3]. Market Data - **Spot Price and Basis**: On October 30, 2025, the spot prices of domestic third - grade soybeans in Harbin, Nenjiang, Jiamusi, and Changchun were 3900, 3860, 3940, and 3970 respectively, with corresponding basis values of - 203, - 253, - 173, and - 143 [3]. - **Futures Closing Price**: On October 30, 2025, compared with the previous day, the closing prices of bean one contracts 11, 01, 03, 05, 07, and 09 decreased by - 0.29%, - 0.24%, - 0.36%, - 0.48%, - 0.41%, and - 0.50% respectively [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - From an economic data perspective, the GDP growth rate in the third quarter declined as expected, but the pressure to achieve the annual target is controllable. The GDP deflator is showing a recovery trend, and its sustainability is worth attention. In September, the economy showed a structural differentiation feature of strong production and weak domestic demand, with both consumption and investment growth rates being weak, highlighting the necessity of policy support. Currently, fiscal policy has clearly taken effect, and the subsequent rhythm of domestic demand repair is crucial. After the release of the communiqué of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, the stock market responded positively. Combining historical patterns, the stock index may perform [1]. - Affected by the end of the China - US negotiations, the results of the China - US summit may fall short of market expectations. The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB quickly rose around 1 o'clock. At the same time, the Bank of Japan's interest - rate meeting maintained the interest rate unchanged as expected, and the weakening of the yen pushed the US dollar index relatively stronger, further dragging down the RMB against the US dollar exchange rate. In the future, attention should be paid to the US employment and inflation situation under the background of the government shutdown, as well as the enterprise's willingness to settle foreign exchange [2]. - The Fed's October interest - rate decision was implemented, with a 25bp cut as expected and the end of balance - sheet reduction in December announced. However, Powell's subsequent speech was hawkish, saying that a December interest - rate cut was not a certainty, which cooled the interest - rate cut expectation. The market repriced the Fed's subsequent interest - rate cut path. Affected by this, the A - share market was under pressure yesterday, and the stock index opened lower and closed down. However, it is believed that the market will quickly digest the change in the interest - rate cut expectation in the short term, and the stock index is expected to strengthen again after fully digesting the interest - rate cut expectation difference [5]. - The container shipping index (European line) futures are expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term. The policy benefits from China and the US and the weakness of the spot market are in a tug - of - war, and the game in the range of 1800 - 1900 points intensifies [10]. - Although in the medium - to - long - term dimension, central bank gold purchases and the growth of investment demand (monetary easing prospects and periodic safe - haven trading) will still push up the price center of precious metals, in the short term, it has entered an adjustment stage. Attention should be paid to the opportunity to make up for long positions at a low level in the medium term, and the previous long - position bottom positions should continue to be held cautiously [14]. - After the release of the Fed's interest - rate decision, the copper market experienced a decline in both volume and price. At this time, the spot premium showed a trend of bottoming out and rebounding, but the increase was limited. It is believed that in the short term, both the long and short factors at the macro level have been digested. If the spot market trading volume does not increase, the futures price will still maintain a high - level shock [16]. - For aluminum, the domestic fundamentals remain stable, and there are disturbances on the overseas supply side. Overall, after the tariff negotiation, the night - session price of Shanghai aluminum rose, but with the successive implementation of macro events, the market is temporarily in a news vacuum, waiting for the next driver, and Shanghai aluminum will maintain a high - level shock in the short term. For alumina, it is still in an oversupply situation, and it is mainly bearish before large - scale production cuts occur, but the downward space is limited at the current price. For cast aluminum alloy, it has a strong follow - up to Shanghai aluminum, and it is recommended to pay attention to the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum [18][19]. - For zinc, the interest - rate cut expectation has weakened. Fundamentally, the phenomenon of smelters competing for mines is serious, and the willingness of smelters to reduce or stop production in November has increased. Assuming stable demand, there is a possibility of inventory reduction. It is expected to be relatively strong and volatile in November [20]. - For nickel and stainless steel, the intraday trading continued to be volatile, and the current long - short game sentiment is relatively strong. The macro - level Fed interest - rate cut and the friendly talks between China and the US in Busan have brought major policy benefits, but the downward shift of the cost support at the fundamental level still suppresses the upward space [21]. - For tin, the uncertainty of the interest - rate cut has increased, and it is weakly volatile. Technically, the pressure level of 290,000 is relatively stable. Fundamentally, the supply is weaker than the demand. In the short term, it is still bullish, and the support is predicted to be around 276,000 [22]. - For lead, it is in a narrow - range shock. The long - term trend is bullish, and the medium - to - short - term wave - like upward trend is stable. High - selling and low - buying strategies can be adopted [22]. - For steel, the price is expected to rebound slightly. Although there is no substantial improvement in the downstream consumption end, there is an expectation of crude steel production reduction, and the steel price will maintain a shock in the future [23]. - For iron ore, the current market presents a pattern of loose supply and demand, and the price is under obvious pressure. In the context of abundant supply, high inventory, and limited demand boost, if steel mills do not achieve large - scale and substantial production cuts, the industrial chain contradictions are difficult to ease, and the iron ore price is expected to continue to be under pressure after the macro events are implemented [24]. - For coking coal and coke, recently, downstream coking plants and steel mills have concentrated on replenishing their inventories, and the coking coal inventory structure has improved. The third round of price increases has started, and the coke price may be relatively strong in the short term. If the coking coal supply continues to tighten in the fourth quarter, and the winter - storage demand is released in mid - to - late November, the overall valuation center of the black market is expected to move up [26][27]. - For ferroalloys, they are supported by the coking coal price, but the fundamentals are not strong enough to support the upward movement, and the upward space is limited [28]. - For crude oil, the price is under pressure. In the short term, the API data shows a significant reduction in US crude oil, gasoline, and diesel inventories, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting and the China - US summit may boost sentiment, so the oil price may fluctuate. But in the medium - to - long - term, the pressure of oversupply is difficult to change, and it is still likely to decline after a rebound [32]. - For LPG, after the China - US summit, the domestic and foreign prices have fallen, and the previous excessive expectations have been slightly revised, but the phased easing of China - US relations is still beneficial. Fundamentally, the port inventory has increased this week, and the chemical demand remains stable. The domestic LPG market still shows a relatively strong shock pattern [34]. - For PTA - PX, the macro - optimistic sentiment has cooled down, and the price has declined slightly. In the short term, it is mainly a short - term strong shock driven by sentiment, and the PTA processing fee has expanded. In the long - term, the industrial - structure contradictions are difficult to solve before the implementation of actual production - reduction actions, and the PTA processing fee is still under pressure from supply and demand [37]. - For MEG - bottle chips, the fundamental supply - demand situation of ethylene glycol has improved marginally, but the valuation is still under pressure. In the short term, it is expected to follow the macro - sentiment and fluctuate widely, and the operation idea of shorting at high levels remains unchanged [38]. - For methanol, from the perspective of its own fundamentals, the 01 contract is not optimistic. It is recommended to reduce the short - put position of the 01 contract and sell the 01 call option at the same time [39]. - For PP, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand continues to put pressure on it, resulting in a low - level shock situation. Due to the limited new drivers at present, the shock pattern is expected to continue [41]. - For PE, the weak supply - demand pattern continues. It is in a deadlock of strong supply and weak demand. Affected significantly by cost factors such as crude oil, it generally maintains a wide - range shock pattern [44]. - For pure benzene and styrene, after the rise, the price has fallen. Pure benzene is expected to be weak, and for styrene, the de - stocking pressure is large. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and consider shorting the processing spread at a high level between varieties after the macro situation is clear [46]. - For fuel oil, the high - sulfur fuel oil is in a pattern of strong expectation and weak reality, and it is not advisable to be overly optimistic about the later cracking. Attention can be paid to the opportunity to expand the spread between LU and FU recently. The low - sulfur fuel oil has a low valuation and there is an expectation of repair, and attention can also be paid to the opportunity to expand the spread between LU and FU [46][47]. - For asphalt, the short - term peak season has no super - expected performance. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term or try to short after the futures price reaches the pressure level [49]. - For glass, soda ash, and caustic soda, for soda ash, without production reduction, the valuation has no upward elasticity, and the upper - and - middle - stream inventory remains high, limiting the price, but there is cost support below. For glass, the spot sales have improved slightly after the price cut, and the game may continue until near the delivery. For caustic soda, the production is gradually recovering, the market pressure is increasing, and the high profit restricts the price increase [49][50][51][52]. - For pulp and offset paper, the pulp price is restricted by the relatively high port inventory, and it still needs to wait for the traditional peak season to provide support in the short term. For offset paper, the futures price shows a slightly upward shock trend, and attention can be paid to the de - stocking situation [53]. - For logs, the market is in a low - volatility state without obvious drivers, and it is expected to continue. It is recommended to sell the 750 put option of the 01 contract, and the grid strategy can be re - configured [55]. - For propylene, the crude oil end is oscillating at the 65 mark, and the cost end is relatively strong. But the overall supply situation of propylene remains loose, the spot market continues to weaken, and the peak season of PP terminal demand is not prosperous [56]. - For live pigs, the position game intensifies, and the futures price has declined [58]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Market news includes the China - US economic and trade teams reaching three - aspect achievement consensuses, possible selection of the Fed chairman candidate before Christmas, the European Central Bank maintaining the deposit rate at 2%, and the Bank of Japan maintaining the interest rate unchanged [1]. - The GDP growth rate in the third quarter declined as expected, and the GDP deflator is showing a recovery trend. In September, the economy had a structural differentiation of strong production and weak domestic demand. Fiscal policy has taken effect, and the subsequent rhythm of domestic demand repair is crucial. The stock market responded positively after the plenary - session communiqué, and the stock index may perform. The China - US economic and trade negotiation results are beneficial to export enterprises in the long - term. Overseas, the Fed's interest - rate cut and Powell's hawkish speech have affected the market's interest - rate cut expectation [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The previous trading day, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down, and the central parity rate was depreciated. Affected by the China - US negotiation and the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision, the RMB against the US dollar exchange rate was under pressure. In the future, attention should be paid to the US employment and inflation situation and the enterprise's willingness to settle foreign exchange. There is a certain appreciation power for the RMB against the US dollar exchange rate with the seasonal effect [2]. - Short - term strategy suggestions: export enterprises can lock in forward exchange settlement in batches at around 7.13, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign - exchange purchase strategy at the 7.09 mark [3]. Stock Index - The previous trading day, the stock index closed down collectively, and the trading volume in the two markets increased. The Fed's interest - rate decision and Powell's speech affected the A - share market. Although the stock index fell, it is expected to strengthen again after digesting the interest - rate cut expectation difference in the short term [4][5]. Treasury Bond - The previous trading day, T and TL closed up in a shock, TF was flat, and TS fell slightly. The capital supply became looser. The China - US negotiation results are beneficial to risk assets, and the short - term upward space of treasury bonds may be limited [6]. Container Shipping (European Line) - The previous trading day, the main contract of the container shipping index (European line) futures rose first and then fell, and the far - month contracts showed differentiation. The market has both positive and negative factors. The positive factors include the phased easing of China - US trade friction, geopolitical risks supporting freight rates, and the basis for price support in the peak season. The negative factors include the discount on spot price increases, long - term over - capacity pressure, and insufficient European economic resilience [7][9]. - The short - term is expected to maintain a high - level shock, and the game in the 1800 - 1900 point range intensifies. Trend traders can wait and see, and arbitrage traders can pay attention to the spread between EC2512 and EC2602 [10]. Commodities Precious Metals (Gold & Silver) - The previous trading day, precious metals prices rebounded significantly, affected by the China - US summit and the news about the Fed chairman candidate. The interest - rate cut expectation has slightly recovered. The long - term fund positions and inventory have changed. In the short term, it has entered an adjustment stage, and attention should be paid to the opportunity to make up for long positions at a low level in the medium term [12][13]. Copper - The previous trading day, copper prices in different markets fell. The LME plans to formulate permanent rules to restrict members with large positions in near - month contracts. In the short term, if the spot market trading volume does not increase, the futures price will maintain a high - level shock. Corresponding trading strategies are provided for different market participants [14][16]. Aluminum Industry Chain - For aluminum, after the China - US summit, relevant export control measures were suspended. The domestic fundamentals are stable, and there are overseas supply disturbances. It will maintain a high - level shock in the short term. For alumina, it is in an oversupply situation, and it is mainly bearish before large - scale production cuts, but the downward space is limited at the current price. For cast aluminum alloy, it has a strong follow - up to Shanghai aluminum, and attention can be paid to the price difference [18][19]. Zinc - The previous trading day, zinc prices opened low and fluctuated due to the weakening of the interest - rate cut expectation. Fundamentally, the smelters' willingness to reduce or stop production in November has increased. Assuming stable demand, there is a possibility of inventory reduction. It is expected to be relatively strong and volatile in November [20]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The previous trading day, the prices of nickel and stainless steel futures fell slightly. The intraday trading continued to be volatile, with strong long - short game sentiment. The macro - level has policy benefits, but the cost support at the fundamental level is weakening. The stainless steel market is in the off - season, and the downstream demand is general [20][21]. Tin - The previous trading day, tin prices were weakly volatile, mainly affected by the weakening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. Fundamentally, the supply is weaker than the demand. In the short term, it is still bullish, and the support is predicted to be around 276,000 [22]. Lead - The previous trading day, lead prices were in a narrow - range shock. The supply is tight in the short term, and the downstream acceptance of high prices is low. It is expected to be in a narrow - range shock around 17,200 - 17,500 in the short term, and the low inventory supports the price [22]. Black Metals Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil - The previous trading day, due to the China - US summit, the prices of finished steel products rose first and then fell. Affected by coal mine safety inspections and Mongolian political disturbances, coking coal prices rose rapidly, driving finished steel products to rebound slightly, but the upward momentum was weak. The fundamentals of finished steel products this week are neutral, and the production of rebar and hot - rolled coil has different changes. It is expected that the steel price will rebound slightly due to environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan [23]. Iron Ore - The price of iron ore rose first and then fell. The current market has a pattern of loose supply and demand, with high global shipments, rapid accumulation of port inventory, and limited reduction in iron - water production. The terminal demand is differentiated, and the macro - policy has limited support for iron ore demand. It is expected to continue to be under pressure [24]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, they were in a high - level shock. The downstream has concentrated on replenishing inventories, and the coking coal inventory structure has improved. The third round of price increases has started, and the coke price may be relatively strong in the short term. If the coking coal supply continues to tighten in the fourth quarter, the overall valuation center of the black market is expected to move