Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The recent price trend of ferroalloys mainly follows the price fluctuations of coal on the cost - side. Although current steel mill profits are good and hot metal production is high, providing support for ferroalloy demand, in the long - term, the real estate market is sluggish, and the support from the home appliance and automotive industries depends on policy stimuli. The supply of manganese ore is relatively sufficient, and there is limited upward pressure on ore prices. In the short - term, the anti - involution trading sentiment has subsided, but the market still has expectations of supply contraction. The market's long - short logic lies in the game between strong expectations and weak reality. Driven by profits, ferroalloy production is increasing, and there is a possibility of inventory shifting from destocking to restocking. The logic of ferroalloys is related to coking coal prices, with large fluctuations in coking coal futures and intense capital games. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - **Silicon Iron**: The monthly price range forecast is 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 25.65%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 69.0% [3]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The monthly price range forecast is 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 15.48%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 28.5% [3]. 3.2 Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short ferroalloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) to lock in profits and cover production costs. The selling side is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 15%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying side is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 25%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 5100 - 5200, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - The price of ferroalloys is affected by coal prices. Steel mill profits are good, and hot metal production is high, supporting ferroalloy demand. However, the long - term real estate market is weak, and the support from other industries is policy - dependent. Manganese ore supply is sufficient, and there is limited support for silicon - manganese from the ore side. The market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality, with increasing production and potential inventory restocking [4]. 3.4 Bullish Factors - **Silicon Iron**: The price of Shaanxi semi - coke small pieces increased by 35 yuan/ton to 630 yuan/ton. The profit in Inner Mongolia's silicon - iron production area remained unchanged at - 49 yuan/ton, while that in Ningxia increased by 50 yuan/ton to 98 yuan/ton. This week, the silicon - iron enterprise inventory was 6.52 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9.19%, and the total silicon - iron inventory was 16.98 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.12% [7]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The government's strict control policies on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the silicon - manganese industry. The production cost in Ningxia was 5942.08 yuan/ton, an increase of 23.24 yuan/ton. The profit in the northern region was - 58.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 39.64 yuan/ton, and that in the southern region was - 417.15 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.71 yuan/ton. The silicon - manganese enterprise inventory was 15.88 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.67%, the silicon - manganese warehouse receipts were 37.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.63%, and the total silicon - manganese inventory was 53.28 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.64% [8]. 3.5 Bearish Factors - **Silicon Iron**: The weekly operating rate of silicon - iron production enterprises was 36.18%, a week - on - week increase of 1.86%, and the weekly output was 11.28 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.39%. In July, the metal magnesium output was 8.17 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.5%. The silicon - iron warehouse receipt inventory was 10.46 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.52% [8]. - **Silicon Manganese**: In the long - term, the real estate market is sluggish, and there are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak silicon - manganese demand. The weekly operating rate of silicon - manganese production enterprises was 45.75%, a week - on - week increase of 2.32%, and the weekly output was 20.71 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.77%. Driven by profits, ferroalloy supply is increasing and is at a high level in the same period in the past 5 years, with high supply pressure. The inventory of the five major steel products is increasing, limiting the production space of steel mills and the growth space of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese [8][9]. 3.6 Daily Data - **Silicon Iron**: On August 20, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was 58 yuan/ton, a day - on - day decrease of 14 yuan/ton and a week - on - week increase of 2 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions decreased to varying degrees. The price of semi - coke small pieces was 630 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and an increase of 35 yuan/ton from a week ago. The number of silicon - iron warehouse receipts was 20,597, a day - on - day decrease of 169 and a week - on - week decrease of 6 [9]. - **Silicon Manganese**: On August 20, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 264 yuan/ton, a day - on - day decrease of 44 yuan/ton and a week - on - week increase of 188 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions decreased to varying degrees. The prices of various manganese ores changed slightly. The number of silicon - manganese warehouse receipts was 73,048, a day - on - day decrease of 143 and a week - on - week decrease of 2398 [10][11].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The trading sentiment in the bond market remains weak, and the market needs to decouple from the stock market to confirm a bottom. In the short term, trading is difficult. It is recommended not to short. Cautious investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors looking to bottom - fish can enter with small positions and stagger their purchases [1][3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a) Market Review - On Wednesday, Treasury bond futures opened higher and fluctuated in the morning, then weakened in the afternoon due to the strong performance of the stock market. Medium - and long - term varieties hit new lows. The yield of spot bonds reversed from a decline to an increase and rose significantly in the afternoon. The central bank had a net injection of 497.5 billion yuan through 7 - day reverse repurchase in the open market, and 10 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits matured. The funding situation was okay, with DR001 around 1.47% [1]. b) Intraday News - The US Department of Commerce officially announced on Tuesday that it would include 407 types of steel and aluminum derivative products, such as wind turbines, in the 50% tariff list, suddenly expanding the scope of Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs and catching US importers off - guard [2]. c) Market Data - **Contract Prices and Positions**: - TS2509 price was 102.322, down 0.006 from the previous day, and its position decreased by 3,655 hands to 94,194 hands. - TF2509 price was 105.45, down 0.085, and its position decreased by 2,116 hands to 170,809 hands. - T2509 price was 107.935, down 0.115, and its position decreased by 5,181 hands to 227,058 hands. - TL2509 price was 116.24, down 0.22, and its position increased by 2,709 hands to 152,216 hands [4]. - **Basis and Trading Volume**: - TS basis (CTD) was 0.0266, down 0.0066, and its trading volume increased by 5,907 hands to 48,745 hands. - TF basis (CTD) was 0.0464, down 0.0168, and its trading volume decreased by 21,612 hands to 55,311 hands. - T basis (CTD) was 0.0542, down 0.0734, and its trading volume decreased by 14,976 hands to 80,139 hands. - TL basis (CTD) was 0.1715, up 0.3672, and its trading volume decreased by 17,379 hands to 99,916 hands [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - Overnight US stocks tumbled and the stock market corrected yesterday, leading to a subdued market sentiment at today's opening. After the mid - session, optimism resurfaced, possibly influenced by some positive interim report data and the expectation of eased Sino - US relations. Short - term market sentiment remains volatile, with shrinking trading volume, indicating that some funds have become cautious. The market is expected to fluctuate near the pressure line for some time, awaiting signals of the Fed's monetary policy adjustment at the Jackson Hole meeting. Currently, maintain positions and be prepared to hedge against downside risks. Given the continuous rise of futures basis boosted by sentiment, using options for hedging may be a better choice [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Today, the stock index rose with shrinking volume, and the small and medium - cap stocks performed relatively strongly, while the gap between large and small - cap stocks narrowed. In terms of funds, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 180.1 billion yuan. In the futures index market, all varieties rose with increasing volume [2]. Important Information - The US Treasury Secretary said that the US and China had a "very good dialogue" on economic and trade issues, and the current work is progressing smoothly. - The parade will last about 70 minutes and will showcase some strategic heavy weapons, high - precision strike equipment, and unmanned and anti - unmanned equipment from the land, sea, and air for the first time [3]. Strategy Recommendation - Insurance strategy: Hold spot and buy put options [5]. Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 1.16 | 1.08 | 1.40 | 1.23 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 13.0668 | 6.3114 | 11.9244 | 29.8722 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous day (10,000 lots) | 2.1399 | 0.0678 | 1.6892 | 6.2534 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 26.7018 | 10.6633 | 22.8358 | 40.0625 | | Open interest change compared to the previous day (10,000 lots) | 0.8761 | 0.2909 | 0.7608 | 2.3675 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 1.04 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 0.89 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 2.35 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 2408.234 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous day (billion yuan) | - 180.135 | [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The BPI freight rate index turned up week-on-week, and the increase in the (large) handy-sized ship transport market widened, with the freight rate rising by over 3% week-on-week. However, the BDI composite freight rate index and the BCI freight rate index declined month-on-month, and the decline widened [1]. - The demand for industrial product shipments remained strong, supporting the demand for Capesize and Panamax ships. The demand for agricultural product shipments also increased, especially in the import shipments of corn, soybeans, and soybean meal [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Index Review - **BDI Freight Rate Index Analysis**: On August 19, the BDI composite freight rate index and the BCI freight rate index continued to decline month-on-month, while the BPI, BSI, and BHSI freight rate indices maintained an upward trend. Specifically, the BDI composite freight rate index closed at 1,964 points, down 2.63% week-on-week; the BCI freight rate index closed at 3,023 points, down 7.3% week-on-week; the BPI freight rate index closed at 1,637 points, up 2.63% week-on-week; the BSI freight rate index closed at 1,369 points, up 3.01% week-on-week; and the BHSI freight rate index closed at 708 points, up 3.06% week-on-week [4]. - **FDI Far East Dry Bulk Freight Rate Index**: On August 19, except for the continued improvement in the large handy-sized ship rental transport market, the FDI composite index and most of the sub-ship type rental freight rates declined. Among them, the FDI Capesize ship rental index had the largest decline. Specifically, the FDI composite freight rate index closed at 1,290.71 points, down 1.39% month-on-month; the FDI rental index closed at 1,566.63 points, down 1.78% month-on-month; the Capesize ship rental index closed at 1,558.15 points, down 4.49% month-on-month; the Panamax ship rental index closed at 1,586.21 points, down 0.17% month-on-month; the large handy-sized ship rental index closed at 1,558.34 points, up 0.35% month-on-month; and the FDI freight rate index closed at 1,106.76 points, down 1.02% month-on-month [9]. 3.2 Dry Bulk Shipment Situation Tracking - **Shipment Country Ship Usage Quantity**: On August 20, among the major agricultural product shipment countries, Brazil used 40 ships, Russia used 10 ships, Argentina used 21 ships, and Australia used 2 ships. Among the major industrial product shipment countries, Australia used 56 ships, Guinea used 30 ships, Indonesia used 37 ships, Russia used 24 ships, South Africa used 17 ships, Brazil used 14 ships, and the United States used 17 ships [16]. - **Shipment Volume and Ship Usage Analysis**: In terms of agricultural product shipments, 23 ships were used for corn shipments, 17 ships for wheat shipments, 16 ships for soybean shipments, 11 ships for soybean meal shipments, and 11 ships for sugar shipments. In terms of industrial product shipments, 110 ships were used for coal shipments, 81 ships for iron ore shipments, and 16 ships for other dry goods shipments. By ship type, the most Ultramax ships were needed for agricultural product shipments, with 37 ships; followed by 19 Handymax ships; and finally 20 Handy ships. For industrial product shipments, the most Capesize ships were needed, reaching 88 ships; followed by 71 Panamax ships; and finally 58 Handymax ships [16]. 3.3 Main Port Ship Quantity Tracking - In August, the number of ships docked at ports in South Africa, Indonesia, and Brazil increased month-on-month. During the week, the number of ships in China and Indonesia continued to increase month-on-month, while the number of ships docked at Australian ports continued to decrease significantly month-on-month. From August 1 to August 19, "two ports decreased, and three ports increased." The number of dry bulk ships docked at Chinese ports decreased by 9 ships month-on-month; the number of ships docked at six Australian ports decreased by 13 ships month-on-month; the number of ships docked at six Indonesian ports increased by 1 ship month-on-month; the number of ships docked at five Brazilian ports increased by 5 ships month-on-month; and the number of ships docked at one South African port increased by 3 ships month-on-month [16][17]. 3.4 Relationship between Freight and Commodity Prices - **Brazilian Soybeans**: On August 19, Brazilian soybeans were priced at $38 per ton. On August 20, the near-term shipment price of Brazilian soybeans was 4,061.54 yuan per ton. - **Iron Ore**: On August 19, the latest freight rate quote for the BCI C10_14 route was $21,986 per day. On August 19, the latest CIF price of iron ore was $118.25 per thousand tons. - **Steam Coal**: On August 19, the latest freight rate quote for the BPI P3A_03 route was $13,887 per day. On August 19, the latest CIF price of steam coal was 557.32 yuan per ton. - **Logs**: On August 19, the Handy-sized ship freight rate index was quoted at 698.6 points. On August 15, the CFR price of 4-meter radiata pine was $116 per cubic meter [21].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The prices of each monthly contract of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures fluctuated slightly downward in the morning and rebounded in the afternoon. Except for a slight increase in the EC2508 contract, the prices of other monthly contracts declined slightly. The opening price of the futures dropped due to Hamas' compromise on the cease - fire plan and MSC and Evergreen's price cuts for the European Line in late August. However, the price rebounded later because MSK's new - week spot cabin quotes for the European Line decreased less than the previous value and market expectations. Overall, it is more likely that EC will continue to fluctuate, and some contracts may rebound from low levels [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content EC Risk Management Strategy - For those with full - capacity or poor booking volume and worried about falling freight rates, they can short the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at 1450 - 1550 to lock in profits [1]. - For those who want to book cabins according to orders to prevent rising freight rates and increased costs, they can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at 1200 - 1300 to determine booking costs in advance [1]. Market Factors Analysis - **Negative Factors**: Hamas compromised on the cease - fire plan, reducing geopolitical risks and dampening market sentiment. MSC and Evergreen cut the European Line quotes in late August [1][2]. - **Positive Factor**: MSK's new - week spot cabin quotes for the European Line decreased less than the previous value and market expectations [1]. EC Contract Data - **Position and Trading Volume**: In the EC2510 contract, long positions decreased by 347 to 27701, short positions increased by 122 to 32102, and trading volume decreased by 955 to 33432 (bilateral) [1]. - **Price and Spread**: On August 19, 2025, EC2508 closed at 2127.3 with a daily increase of 1.87% and a weekly increase of 2.18%. EC2510 closed at 1370.3 with a daily decrease of 0.20% and a weekly decrease of 3.34%. Other contract data are also provided, along with price spreads between different contracts [4]. Spot Cabin Quotes - **Maersk**: On August 28, the 20GP total quote for Shanghai - Rotterdam was $1480 (up $30 from the previous value), and the 40GP was $2510 (up $60). On September 4, the 20GP opening quote was $1265 (down $55 from the previous week), and the 40GP was $2110 (down $90 from the previous week) [6]. - **MSC**: In the past two weeks, the 20GP total quote for Shanghai - Rotterdam was $1550 (down $150), and the 40GP was $2590 (down $250). In early September, the 20GP total quote was $1556 (up $6), and the 40GP was $2602 (up $12) [6]. - **Evergreen**: In late August, the 20GP total quote for Shanghai - Rotterdam was $1805 (down $150), and the 40GP was $2760 (down $200) [7]. Global Freight Rate Index - **SCFIS**: The European Line was at 2180.17 (down 55.31, - 2.47%), and the US - West Line was at 1106.29 (up 24.15, 2.23%) [7]. - **SCFI**: The European Line was at $1820/TEU (down $141, - 7.19%), and the US - West Line was at $1759/FEU (down $64, - 3.51%) [7]. - **XSI**: The European Line was at $3083/FEU (down $36, - 1.15%), and the US - West Line was at $1849/FEU (down $13, - 0.7%) [7]. - **FBX**: The comprehensive freight rate index was at $1975/FEU (down $162, - 7.58%) [7]. Global Port Waiting Time - On August 18, 2025, Hong Kong Port's waiting time was 1.020 days (up 0.527 from the previous day), Shanghai Port's was 1.809 days (down 0.220), and other port data are also provided [14]. Ship Speed and Waiting Ship Number - On August 18, 2025, the average speed of 8000 + container ships was 15.966 knots (down 0.014 from the previous day), and the number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchor was 19 (up 4 from the previous day) [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The strengthening of tin prices on Tuesday afternoon may be related to smelter production cut expectations, but both macro and fundamental factors have limited impact. Macroscopically, the US retail sales data in July met expectations. Fundamentally, the repeated delay of the full resumption of production in Myanmar's tin mines has been providing obvious support for tin prices and may have a continuous impact. In the short term, tin prices may remain volatile, with a stable macro environment and room for speculation on supply - side topics [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest closing price of tin is 268,090 yuan/ton, the monthly price range forecast is 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton, the current volatility is 14.36%, and the current volatility's historical percentile is 26.1% [2] - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2510C275000 call option when the volatility is appropriate. For raw material management with low raw material inventory and fear of price increase, it is recommended to buy 50% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2510P245000 put option when the volatility is appropriate [2] 3.2 Factors Affecting Tin Prices - **Likely Positive Factors**: Sino - US tariff policy easing, the semiconductor sector still being in an expansion cycle, and Myanmar's resumption of production falling short of expectations [4] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Repeated tariff policies, the inflow of Myanmar's tin ore into China, and the semiconductor sector's expansion slowing down and gradually moving from an expansion cycle to a contraction cycle [5] 3.3 Tin Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Tin main, Shanghai Tin continuous one, and Shanghai Tin continuous three are 268,090 yuan/ton, 268,320 yuan/ton, and 268,290 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change. The latest price of LME Tin 3M is 33,770 US dollars/ton, with a daily increase of 100 US dollars and a daily increase rate of 0.3%. The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.92, with a daily increase of 0.01 and a daily increase rate of 0.13% [6] - **Spot Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Non - Ferrous tin ingots, 40% tin concentrate, 60% tin concentrate, etc. have weekly declines, with the Shanghai Non - Ferrous tin ingot price at 266,200 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 4,400 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 1.63% [12] 3.4 Tin Import and Inventory Data - **Import Data**: The latest tin import profit and loss is - 18,244.92 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 855.39 yuan and a daily decline rate of 4.92%. The processing fees of 40% and 60% tin ore remain unchanged [16] - **Inventory Data**: The total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 7,513 tons, with a daily decline of 74 tons and a daily decline rate of 0.98%. The total LME tin inventory remains unchanged at 1,655 tons [18]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices continued to fluctuate on Tuesday and are expected to remain volatile in the short term. The previous support level of 77,000 yuan per ton has been raised to 78,000 yuan per ton. The Fed's meeting minutes and Powell's speech may have limited impact on copper prices, while the strong support of the US dollar index exerts pressure on the overall valuation of non - ferrous metals [3]. - There are both利多 and利空 factors for copper prices.利多 factors include reaching a tariff agreement, a decline in the US dollar index due to increased interest - rate cut expectations, and the upward shift of the support level.利空 factors include tariff policy fluctuations, reduced global demand due to tariffs, and an extremely high COMEX inventory caused by US copper tariff policy adjustments [4][5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 78,890 yuan per ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan per ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2]. Copper Risk Management Suggestions - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, sell 75% of Shanghai Copper main futures contracts around 82,000 yuan per ton and sell 25% of CU2510C82000 call options when volatility is relatively stable. - For raw material management with low raw material inventory and concerns about price increases, buy 75% of Shanghai Copper main futures contracts around 77,000 yuan per ton [2]. Copper Futures Market Data | Futures Contract | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Main | Yuan/ton | 78,890 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 1 | Yuan/ton | 78,870 | - 40 | - 0.05% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 3 | Yuan/ton | 78,850 | 0 | 0% | | LME Copper 3M | US dollars/ton | 9,684.5 | - 67.5 | - 0.69% | | Shanghai - London Ratio | Ratio | 8.21 | 0.03 | 0.37% | [6] Copper Spot Data | Spot Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper | Yuan/ton | 79,100 | - 180 | - 0.23% | | Shanghai Wumaotong | Yuan/ton | 79,050 | - 230 | - 0.29% | | Guangdong Southern Reserve | Yuan/ton | 78,970 | - 180 | - 0.23% | | Yangtze River Non - ferrous | Yuan/ton | 79,220 | - 210 | - 0.26% | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Premium | Yuan/ton | 195 | - 30 | - 13.33% | | Shanghai Wumaotong Premium | Yuan/ton | 130 | - 40 | - 23.53% | | Guangdong Southern Reserve Premium | Yuan/ton | 155 | - 45 | - 22.5% | | Yangtze River Non - ferrous Premium | Yuan/ton | 185 | - 5 | - 2.63% | [12] Copper Scrap - to - Refined Spread | Spread Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Current Scrap - to - Refined Spread (Tax - included) | Yuan/ton | 1,049.89 | 36.38 | 3.59% | | Reasonable Scrap - to - Refined Spread (Tax - included) | Yuan/ton | 1,491.35 | - 0.7 | - 0.05% | | Price Advantage (Tax - included) | Yuan/ton | - 441.46 | 37.08 | - 7.75% | | Current Scrap - to - Refined Spread (Tax - excluded) | Yuan/ton | 5,735 | 30 | 0.53% | | Reasonable Scrap - to - Refined Spread (Tax - excluded) | Yuan/ton | 6,191.97 | - 4.86 | - 0.08% | | Price Advantage (Tax - excluded) | Yuan/ton | - 456.97 | 34.86 | - 7.09% | [17] Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts total 25,498 tons (unchanged), and International Copper warehouse receipts total 8,780 tons, a decrease of 5,571 tons (- 38.82%). - LME copper inventory totals 155,150 tons, a decrease of 450 tons (- 0.29%). - COMEX copper inventory totals 269,943 tons, an increase of 4,054 tons (1.52%) [21][23][24]. Copper Import Profit and Processing - The copper import profit is 332.39 yuan per ton, an increase of 3.25 yuan (0.99%). The copper concentrate TC is - 37.67 US dollars per ton, unchanged [25].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint The medium to long - term outlook for precious metals is potentially bullish, while the short - term trend is weak and consolidating. After London gold breaks below the 3330 mark, it may further retrace to the 3300 integer level, with resistance in the 3350 area. London silver has broken below 37.5, with support shifting down to 37 and resistance in the 37.7 - 38 areas. The operation strategy remains to buy on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - On Tuesday, the precious metals market was in weak consolidation. The rising US dollar index exerted pressure, and the expectation of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine reduced the geopolitical risk premium. The market is focused on the guidance of the global central bank annual meeting on the future interest - rate cut prospects of the Federal Reserve. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3358.9 per ounce, down 0.57%; COMEX silver 2509 contract closed at $37.33 per ounce, down 1.84%. SHFE gold 2510 main contract was at 775.06 yuan per gram, down 0.13%; SHFE silver 2510 contract was at 9187 yuan per kilogram, down 0.25% [2]. 3.2 Interest - Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest - rate cut expectations remained stable. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 13.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 86.1%. In October, the probability of unchanged rates is 6.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 47.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 46%. In December, the probability of unchanged rates is 1.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 14%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 47.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 37.6%. - Long - term fund holdings: SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 3.2 tons to 962.2 tons; iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 17 tons to 15339.6 tons. SHFE silver inventory increased by 11 tons to 1149.4 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 17.7 tons to 1286.8 tons as of the week ending August 15 [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - This week's data is light. Pay moderate attention to the US weekly initial jobless claims, housing data, and the US S&P manufacturing and services PMI. The key event is the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. On Friday at 22:00, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak at the meeting. Additionally, on Wednesday at 23:00, Fed Governor Christopher Waller will speak at a blockchain seminar in Wyoming. On Thursday at 02:00, the Fed will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting, and at 03:00, 2027 FOMC voter and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will speak on the economic outlook [4]. 3.4 Price and Inventory Data - **Precious Metals Futures and Spot Prices**: SHFE gold main - continuous contract was at 775.06 yuan per gram, down 0.33%; SGX gold TD was at 772.4 yuan per gram, down 0.31%; CME gold main contract was at $3358.9 per ounce, down 0.57%. SHFE silver main - continuous contract was at 9187 yuan per kilogram, down 0.77%; SGX silver TD was at 9183 yuan per kilogram, down 0.48%; CME silver main contract was at $37.33 per ounce, down 1.93% [4][5]. - **Inventory and Position Data**: SHFE gold inventory was 36333 kilograms, down 0.03%; CME gold inventory was 1201.5012 tons, down 0.05%; SHFE gold position was 191435 lots, down 1.32%; SPDR gold position was 962.21 tons, down 0.33%. SHFE silver inventory was 1149.446 tons, up 0.97%; CME silver inventory was 15805.2897 tons, up 0.12%; SGX silver inventory was 1286.835 tons, down 1.35%; SHFE silver position was 342500 lots, down 2.35%; SLV silver position was 15339.657474 tons, down 0.11% [15]. 3.5 Other Market Data - **Stock, Bond, and Commodity Overview**: The US dollar index was at 98.2652, up 0.12%; the US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.1865, unchanged. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 44922.27 points, up 0.02%. WTI crude oil spot was at $62.35 per barrel, down 1.69%. LmeS copper 03 was at $9684.5 per ton, down 0.69%. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.3%, down 0.92%; the 10 - year US real interest rate was 1.95%, down 0.51%; the 10 - 2 year US Treasury yield spread was 0.55%, down 3.51% [18].

Report Information - Report Name: LPG Industry Risk Management Daily Report [2] - Date: August 19, 2025 [3] - Analysts: Dai Yifan (Investment Consulting Certificate: Z0015428), Shen Weiwei (F03140197) [3] Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views - The marginal improvement in demand is difficult to offset the suppression of warehouse receipts. As of August 19, the LPG warehouse receipts on the Dalian Commodity Exchange were 13,318 lots (+440) [4]. - On the demand side, there is a marginal improvement. The PDH sector is expected to operate at 75%-80% due to profit repair, which is a high level this year and seasonally. The MTBE sector is supported by exports, with the operating rate remaining at a phased high of around 65%. The alkylation oil operating rate has also slightly increased to around 50%, which is a seasonal high [5]. - On the cost side, the crude oil market has shifted to a sideways trend after consecutive days of decline, and demand will also weaken seasonally. The overseas propane market is also under pressure due to high exports. On the supply side, the domestic major refineries are operating at a high level, while the local refineries are gradually recovering from a low level. On the inventory side, the port inventory remains high due to high arrivals [6]. Content Summaries LPG Price and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for LPG is 3,750 - 4,400. The current 20-day rolling volatility is 15.47%, and the historical percentage of the current volatility in the past three years is 5.99% [3]. LPG Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - For high inventory and concerns about price drops, sell PG2510 futures at a 50% hedging ratio when the price is between 4,400 - 4,500 to lock in profits and cover production costs. Also, sell PG2510C4500 call options at a 25% hedging ratio when the price is between 60 - 80 to collect premiums and lock in the selling price if the spot price rises [3]. Procurement Management - For low procurement inventory and the need to purchase based on orders, buy PG2509 futures at a 25% hedging ratio when the price is between 3,600 - 3,700 to lock in procurement costs. Also, sell PG2509P3600 put options at a 25% hedging ratio when the price is between 8 - 10 to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if the PG price drops [3]. Industry Data Price Data - Brent crude oil closed at $65.42, down $0.47 from the previous day and $0.69 from a week ago. WTI crude oil closed at $62, down $0.58 from the previous day and $1.08 from a week ago. The LPG main contract closed at 3,852 yuan, up 1 yuan from the previous day and 26 yuan from a week ago [7]. Warehouse Receipts and Basis - The LPG warehouse receipts on the Dalian Commodity Exchange were 13,318 lots, an increase of 440 lots from the previous day and 344 lots from a week ago. The LPG basis was 488 yuan, down 21 yuan from the previous day and 46 yuan from a week ago [8]. Spread, Month Spread, and Ratio - Various spreads, month spreads, and ratios are provided in the report, including FEI - MOPJ M1, LPG - FEI, LPG08 - 09, MB/WTI, etc., with their respective daily and weekly changes [7][8]. Profit Data - The report provides data on various profit indicators, such as the LPG import profit, PDH profit, and Asian cracking profit, with their respective daily and weekly changes [8]. Freight Data - Freight rates from the Middle East to the Far East, the United States to Europe, and the US Gulf to the Far East are provided, along with their daily and weekly changes [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The expansion of the US steel and aluminum tariff scope on August 15 did not change the tariff rate. The impact on aluminum prices is relatively small compared to the adjustment on May 30. The tariff is expected to cause a price correction rather than a reversal, and the correction range is not expected to be deep. In the medium - term, aluminum prices are still optimistic, and the correction is regarded as a restocking opportunity [3][16]. - The impact of the tariff expansion on demand needs to be verified by subsequent retail data. The previous tariff increase made PPI rise but had little impact on CPI, indicating that most of the tariff was absorbed by manufacturers and had less impact on demand [14]. - The US tariff policy adjustment affects the entire non - ferrous metal sector, which will be reflected in demand and then affect prices. The tariff range may be adjusted according to relevant categories, and the policy uncertainty in the second half of 2025 is decreasing [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents US Steel and Aluminum Tariff Policy Timeline - On February 10, 2025, Trump signed a document to impose a 25% tariff on all imported steel and aluminum in the US and cancel the tax - free quotas and exemptions for some trading partners [2]. - On March 12, 2025, the 25% tariff on all imported steel and aluminum in the US officially took effect [2]. - On May 30, 2025, Trump announced to raise the steel and aluminum import tariff from 25% to 50%, which took effect on June 4 [2][3]. - On August 15, 2025, the Trump administration announced to expand the scope of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, adding 407 product codes, and the new list took effect on August 18 [1][3]. Newly Added Tariff - Covered Product Areas - Automobile manufacturing: Galvanized steel sheets, aluminum alloy wheels, engine brackets and other key components [4]. - Construction engineering: Steel structure beams, aluminum alloy window and door frames, prestressed concrete steel strands [4]. - Consumer goods: Tin - plated sheets for cans, household appliance shells, kitchen cookware [5]. - Industrial equipment: Transformers, compressor valve plates, hydraulic system pipes, structural parts of mining machinery and industrial processing machinery [5]. China's Aluminum Exports to the US - Direct exports of aluminum materials: Since 2018, China's exports of unforged aluminum and aluminum materials to the US have decreased significantly. In 2024, the export volume was 25.4 tons, a 62% decrease from 2017. The proportion of exports to the US in total exports dropped to 3.8% in 2024, a 10.2 - percentage - point decrease from 2017 [5]. - Exports of aluminum products: The scale of China's aluminum product exports to the US has been generally stable, ranging from 350,000 to 600,000 tons, accounting for about 16% of total exports. The indirect export scale of aluminum is estimated to exceed 3 million tons, and exports to the US account for about 15% [7]. - Re - exports of aluminum: After the US trade war in 2017, the global aluminum trade flow was reshaped. China's aluminum exports to the US decreased, while exports to other countries and regions increased. Mexico, Hong Kong and Southeast Asian countries are common re - export destinations [9]. China's Aluminum Consumption and Export Proportion - In 2024, China's full - scale domestic aluminum consumption was 50.23 million tons, accounting for 88% of total consumption, with a compound annual growth rate of 5.3% from 2015 - 2024. Aluminum and aluminum material exports were 6.63 million tons, accounting for 12% of total consumption, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.4% from 2015 - 2024. Exports to the US accounted for about 4.6% - 6.4% of the country's total aluminum product consumption [13]. Impact of Tariff Adjustment - There is some room for enterprises to operate in tariff declaration, but the impact on demand is real. The extent of the impact depends on how the tax is distributed between manufacturers and consumers [14]. - Previous tariff increases made PPI rise but had little impact on CPI, indicating that most of the tariff was absorbed by manufacturers. The specific impact of this tariff expansion needs to be verified by subsequent retail data [14]. - From the perspective of the futures market, this tariff expansion has less impact on aluminum prices. In the medium - term, there are upward drivers for aluminum in September, such as interest rate cuts and the recovery of peak - season demand [16]. Future Focus on Tariff Policy - Future tariff - related content worthy of attention includes global tariff agreements and which categories are within the agreement scope. The US policy uncertainty index has decreased since August 2025 [18].