1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, soybeans defied the pattern of being more likely to fall than rise, with the futures main contract 01 rising over 5% and spot prices increasing to varying degrees. Multiple factors contributed to this, and the market fundamentals have shifted, with new - season soybeans potentially ending the bottom - probing process and later showing a bottom - confirmation and oscillating upward trend [1]. - In the long run, domestic soybean prices may break out of the bottom - range oscillation, and the annual price center of gravity may shift upward significantly [6]. - The supply of medium - and high - protein soybeans will decline, and the rigid edible consumption is expected to continuously support the prices of relevant soybean sources, with the feature of high - quality at high - price persisting until the next supply season [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Multiple factors such as the sellers' price - holding, southern产区's reduced production, and rigid repayment demand led to the anti - seasonal rise of soybeans in October. The increased acquisition of Northeast soybeans due to southern产区's reduced production was the core driving force [1]. - In the short term, beware of the risk of selling pressure emerging due to price stagnation, especially near the end of the year. The resumption of US soybean imports will suppress the sentiment of soybean price increases, especially for medium - and low - protein soybeans [5]. - The new - season supply pressure is dispersed, and the import soybean gap and arrival volume at the end of the fourth quarter and early next year will have a key impact on the consumption of domestic medium - and low - protein soybeans [6]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: Bullish trend; **Technical View**: Pay attention to short - term pull - back confirmation and focus on the 20 - day moving average support; **Strategy View**: Overall, wait and see, wait for the pull - back confirmation, and pay attention to low - price inventory hedging at high prices in the short term [6]. - **Basis Strategy**: The weekly spot - futures market prices stagnated, and the basis of 39 - protein soybeans was neutral. It is recommended to wait and see. **Spread Strategy**: The difference between near - and far - month contracts changed insignificantly. Consider selling near - month and buying far - month contracts [6]. - **Recent Strategy Review**: Hold short - term hedging for contract 01 above 4100; Wait for the price to fall before making forward purchases [6]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast for Contract 01**: 3900 - 4100, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.36% and a historical percentile of 25.9% [6]. - **Risk Strategy**: For inventory management of growers, when the selling pressure is high, short - sell soybean futures (A2601) with a 30% hedging ratio above 4100; sell call options (A2511 - C - 4050) with a 30% hedging ratio. For procurement management, wait for the price to bottom out in the fourth quarter before making forward purchases [6]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The spot market sentiment was stable, and prices remained high but stagnated. There were no auction arrangements this week [8]. - **Negative Information**: The transaction volume of state - reserve auctions was limited, and the market demand focused on high - protein soybeans. The resumption of US soybean imports due to Sino - US negotiations will be negative for domestic medium - and low - protein soybean prices [8]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Concerns - The import rhythm of US soybeans will become clearer. Observe whether selling pressure emerges actively after the spot price stagnates [7][9]. 3.3 Market Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - In the last week of October, soybean prices stagnated at a high level, with a weekly decline of - 0.05%, forming a doji candlestick. Trading volume and open interest remained high, and the registered warehouse receipts were 7238 lots [9]. - **Basis Structure**: During the week, the spot - futures prices of domestic soybeans consolidated at a high level after a rebound, and the basis changed little. **Spread Structure**: Contract 11 was weak, while contract 01 was strong, and the overall spread change was insignificant [17][19]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - In the Heilongjiang soybean - producing area, the price of 39 - protein clean grains oscillated at 2 yuan per catty, and the planting profit increased significantly compared to the previous year. Mid - stream trading enterprises' willingness to store grains increased, but the profit of building warehouses and storing grains was uncertain. Down - stream demand was active, high - protein soybeans were in short supply, and prices were firm. The crushing profit changed slightly, and oil mills' acquisition was at a moderate level [29]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply Side and Deduction - The supply of high - protein soybeans in the new season will decrease due to the increase in high - oil soybean area in the Northeast and the reduced production in the South. It will take about 10 months until the next effective supply, and the supply of high - protein soybeans will gradually tighten. The supply of medium - and low - protein soybeans will increase. Pay attention to the arrival rhythm of imported soybeans at the end of the fourth quarter and the change in oil mills' acquisition intensity caused by soybean meal price fluctuations [33][34]. 3.5.2 Demand Side and Deduction - In the last week of October, the edible consumption market of domestic soybeans turned from off - season to peak season, with demand mainly for high - protein soybeans. Near the end of the year, downstream enterprises' stocking efforts are expected to continue, supporting the prices of high - quality soybeans. The demand for oil - soybeans depends on the performance of soybean meal and soybean oil prices. Pay attention to the arrival quantity in December and soybean meal prices to see if the crushing demand can have a phased increase similar to last year [34].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The impact of new - season corn in October has been effectively released, with prices hitting the bottom and rebounding. In November, the supply - side pressure will ease, but the supply level remains high [2]. - The domestic corn production increase trend is certain, and the market continues to digest the price pressure brought by the increase. The price is mainly in the bottom - shock stage. The probability of forming an important bottom in the price is relatively high in the fourth - quarter supply - peak period [8]. - In 2026, the pig production capacity control measures may gradually show results, which may have a negative impact on the corn feed demand situation, while the deep - processing demand situation is stable [8]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Supply - side situation**: The national autumn grain harvest is over 85%. Corn harvest is basically completed except in some late - harvest areas. The supply is still in a loose period, and the most obvious impact stage of concentrated listing on corn prices may have ended in October. The supply pressure in November will ease, but the supply level remains high [2]. - **Price performance**: Last week, the spot price was in a stable consolidation stage after the first - round impact of new - season grain sources. The corn futures price showed a bottom - hitting and rebounding trend, and the starch market was relatively stable [2]. - **Trading logic**: In the short - term, the domestic corn price is mainly in the bottom - shock stage. In the long - term, the domestic corn supply - demand contradiction has eased, and the price is likely to form an important bottom in the fourth quarter. However, in 2026, the pig production capacity control may affect the corn feed demand [8]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend judgment**: The current futures price is in the second - round bottom - testing process, and the 2100 - yuan mark support is effective in the short - term. It is recommended to close short positions and wait and see when entering the 2050 - 2100 - yuan range. Options can consider selling options based on the 2050 - 2230 - yuan range shock [9]. - **Basis, spread, and hedging arbitrage strategies**: The basis spread has little change, and no strategy is recommended. The 1 - 5 spread of corn has narrowed, and the spread structure is relatively steep. It is not suitable for hedging in the raw material and feed demand ends for now. Pay attention to the buy - starch and sell - corn arbitrage operation [9][12]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price range forecast**: The price range of corn is 2050 - 2200 yuan, and that of starch is 2350 - 2550 yuan [21]. - **Risk strategies**: Different strategies are recommended for inventory management and procurement management, such as shorting corn futures, selling call options, selling put options, and buying far - month contracts [21]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Time 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: The state reserve continues to purchase to support the market, the North China purchase and sales have recovered, the spot price is stable, the agricultural product trade situation is expected to improve, the cold weather is conducive to grain storage, and the deep - processing acquisition willingness is strong [25]. - **Negative information**: The corn market harvest is gradually ending, but the new - grain listing level is high, and the price pressure is still large [23]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Event Attention - Pay attention to the auction purchase transaction situation of China Grain Reserves Corporation, the price - support strength of the state reserve acquisition in the Northeast, and whether the corn report guidance affected by the US government shutdown can be restored [26]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Domestic market**: The corn futures price showed a bottom - hitting and rebounding trend last week, with the main 01 contract slightly down 3 yuan/ton. The starch market was relatively stable, and the main 01 contract of starch was down 1 yuan/ton, performing slightly stronger than the corn disk [2][25]. - **Fund flow**: The total position of the corn 01 contract increased, and the trading volume decreased. The total position and trading volume of the starch 01 contract were basically the same as the previous week [25]. - **Basis and spread structure**: The basis structure changed little, and the term - spread structure of corn was still relatively steep. The near - far - month spread slightly shrank. Pay attention to the buy - starch and sell - corn arbitrage operation [32][39][55]. 3.2 External Market - The CBOT corn futures closed higher last week, but the futures price fell from the short - term high due to the disappointment of bullish expectations. The US spot corn harvest is in the final stage, and the market is waiting for relevant data guidance [58]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - **Planting profit**: The planting profit is better than last year, especially in the Northeast and other yield - increasing areas [64]. - **Trading profit**: As the corn price stabilizes, traders are cautious in building inventories, and there is a small amount of trading profit [64]. - **Deep - processing profit**: The corn starch profit continues to recover, while the profit of the corn - to - ethanol industry has significantly declined [64]. - **Disk profit**: The basis of Jinzhou Port is neutral, and the disk profit is not obvious. It is not suitable to enter the market for hedging, but enterprises with low inventory - building costs can pay attention to far - month hedging [64]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking The import profit of corn has decreased due to the rise in the external market [66]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - **China's corn supply - demand balance sheet**: The sown area, output, and total supply of corn have increased in recent years. The consumption is relatively stable, and the annual surplus has fluctuated [70]. - **Global corn supply - demand balance sheet**: The global corn supply and demand are basically balanced, but the inventory - consumption ratio has decreased [71]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - **Domestic supply**: In November, the corn supply is in the stage of declining from the peak. The selling pressure will decrease with the drop in temperature in the Northeast. The import volume is expected to remain at a low level [73]. - **Inventory situation**: The inventory of northern ports has stopped rising, and the inventory of southern ports has stopped falling and rebounded. The overall low inventory provides space for later corn purchase and sales activities [75]. - **Foreign corn**: The US corn futures price rose, but the lack of corn purchase commitments in the Sino - US trade agreement limited its upward space. The impact on China is limited [77]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - **Feed demand**: It is expected to remain at a high level in the fourth quarter. The pig breeding profit has recovered, but the pig production capacity reduction may affect the corn feed demand in 2026 [79]. - **Deep - processing demand**: The fourth quarter is the traditional consumption peak season for corn deep - processing products. The low - price corn attracts downstream enterprises to increase their start - up rates, and the consumption of corn is expected to increase [83].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The "15th Five-Year Plan" draft provides future focus directions, and the Sino-US economic and trade consultation has reached a phased consensus, but the long - term game remains. The manufacturing PMI has declined marginally, and the economy needs policy support. Overseas, the Fed has cut interest rates with internal differences, and the market's interest - rate cut expectation has cooled [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is in a tug - of - war around 7.10. Last week, the USD/CNY spot rate showed a V - shaped reversal, and it is expected to trade in the 7.09 - 7.14 range this week [3][4]. - Short - term stock index is expected to fluctuate mainly due to a dull news environment. Treasury bonds suggest holding medium - term long positions. The container shipping European line is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [7][8][13]. - Precious metals are in a short - term adjustment phase, and copper's 12 - month contract has reached its high. Aluminum is expected to be in high - level fluctuations, and alumina may be in weak fluctuations [18][21][23]. - Zinc is expected to be in narrow - range fluctuations, and nickel and stainless steel are under fundamental pressure. Tin is in high - level fluctuations, and lithium carbonate is expected to be in an oscillating and relatively strong state [26][29][30]. - Industrial silicon is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and polycrystalline silicon has a weak fundamental situation. Lead is expected to be in narrow - range fluctuations [34][35][36]. - Steel products are expected to be in an oscillating adjustment. Iron ore has limited upward space, and coking coal and coke are suitable for long - position allocation in the black sector [37][40][41]. - Ferroalloys are expected to oscillate due to high inventory and weak demand. Crude oil is expected to oscillate in the $60 - 65 range this week [42][46]. - LPG is affected by cost. PX - PTA is expected to be strong and oscillating with the cost, and MEG is expected to be in wide - range fluctuations and maintain a short - position allocation [48][52][55]. - Methanol 01 may continue to decline, and PP and PE are in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. Pure benzene and styrene are expected to be in low - level fluctuations [57][61][64]. - Fuel oil's cracking is weakening, and low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking is strengthening. Asphalt's basis is weakening [68][69][72]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomy - China's October official manufacturing PMI fell to 49, and the non - manufacturing index rose to 50.1. Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates with internal differences, and Powell's hawkish speech reduced the probability of a December interest - rate cut [1][2]. RMB Exchange Rate - Last week, the USD/CNY spot rate showed a V - shaped reversal. It is expected to trade in the 7.09 - 7.14 range this week, and the key technical point around 7.10 is the focus of the battle between bulls and bears [3][4]. Stock Index - Last Friday, most stock indexes fell except for the CSI 1000. Short - term news is dull, and it is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to hold positions and wait and see [5][7]. Treasury Bonds - Last week, treasury bonds rose significantly. The central bank's stance on supporting monetary policy and resuming secondary - market bond purchases improved market expectations. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions [7][8]. Container Shipping European Line - There are both positive and negative factors. The contract price is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations in the 1800 - 1900 point range. Trend traders can wait, and arbitrage traders can pay attention to the spread between EC2512 and EC2602 [10][11][13]. Precious Metals - Last week, precious metals continued to adjust. Although the medium - and long - term prices are expected to rise, the short - term is in an adjustment phase. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [15][16][18]. Copper - The 12 - month contract of copper has reached its high. In November, the market focuses on the 1 - month contract. If the December interest - rate cut expectation increases, there may be an upward impulse [19][21]. Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum is affected by macro - policies and is expected to be in high - level fluctuations. Alumina is in a supply - surplus state and may be in weak fluctuations. Cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up to aluminum and is expected to be in high - level fluctuations [23][24][25]. Zinc - Zinc prices are in narrow - range fluctuations. There is an upward drive in November, and it is recommended to wait and see exports and the macro - situation [25][26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The prices of nickel and stainless steel are under fundamental pressure. The 12 - month interest - rate cut expectation is uncertain, and the Sino - US tariff situation is changeable [27][29]. Tin - Tin prices are in high - level fluctuations, mainly affected by the weakening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. It is recommended to go long in the short - term and conduct high - selling and low - buying operations [30]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price is expected to be in an oscillating and relatively strong state in the 74000 - 85000 yuan/ton range, affected by supply and demand factors [30][31]. Industrial Silicon and Polycrystalline Silicon - Industrial silicon is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and polycrystalline silicon has a weak fundamental situation. It is recommended to be cautious when investing in polycrystalline silicon [33][34][35]. Lead - Lead prices are in narrow - range fluctuations. It is recommended to use option double - selling strategies to earn option premiums [36]. Steel Products - Steel products are in an oscillating adjustment. The follow - up apparent demand needs to be improved, and it is affected by raw material costs and the macro - environment [37]. Iron Ore - Iron ore is facing a situation of "exhausted macro - benefits and pressured fundamentals". It is recommended to short at high levels after valuation repair [38][39][40]. Coking Coal and Coke - Downstream coking plants and steel mills are actively replenishing inventory. Coking coal and coke are suitable for long - position allocation in the black sector [41]. Ferroalloys - Ferroalloys are facing the contradiction of high inventory and weak demand. After the macro - sentiment fades, they are expected to oscillate [42]. Crude Oil - Last week, crude oil was in a sideways adjustment. This week, it is expected to oscillate in the $60 - 65 range, and it is difficult to break through [44][46]. LPG - LPG is affected by cost. The domestic fundamental support is relatively limited, and it is mainly affected by the cost side [47][48]. PX - PTA - PTA's price has rebounded due to the "anti - involution" rumor and improved fundamentals. It is expected to be strong and oscillating with the cost, but the surplus expectation remains [49][50][52]. MEG - Bottle Chip - Ethylene glycol's demand has improved marginally, but the valuation is under pressure due to the inventory accumulation expectation. It is recommended to short at high levels [53][54][55]. Methanol - Methanol 01 may continue to decline due to the delay of the Iranian gas - restriction expectation [56][57]. PP - PP is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. The supply pressure is difficult to fundamentally relieve, and it is expected to be weak [59][61]. PE - PE is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. The supply pressure is large, and the demand support is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to macro - changes [63][64]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene is expected to be weak due to the expected inventory accumulation. Styrene has high inventory and de - stocking pressure. It is recommended to short after a rebound [66][67]. Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil's cracking is weakening, and low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking is strengthening due to improved fundamentals [68][69]. Asphalt - Asphalt's basis is weakening. The short - term is affected by external disturbances, and the long - term demand in the south may be boosted [70][72].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The core contradiction in the current crude oil market is that short - term geopolitical and macro - level positive factors have been mostly digested. The market driver has entered a vacuum period, and the focus has returned to the fundamentals, but the pressure has not been relieved. Coupled with the uncertainty of the OPEC+ meeting, the market is in a low - level oscillation with a risk of decline. Without new positive factors, the fundamentals will continue to suppress, and the oil price is likely to fall within the oscillation range to digest the previous emotional premium [1]. - In the short - term, the trading logic is mainly the game between geopolitical disturbances and macro - level emotions. In the long - term, it is dominated by fundamentals and structural changes, with a continuous supply surplus pressure [3][4]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestions 1.1 Core Contradiction - The short - term geopolitical and macro - level positive factors have been digested. The market has entered a vacuum period, and the focus is back on fundamentals. The OPEC+ meeting on November 2nd is a key variable. Iraq's request to increase its quota may lead to an unexpected meeting result. Without new positive factors, the oil price is likely to fall within the 60 - 65 US dollars oscillation range [1]. 1.2 Speculative Strategy Suggestions - The market is expected to have a short - term rebound and repair, and a medium - term weak oscillation. - For the unilateral strategy, short positions can be taken when Brent rebounds to 66 - 68 US dollars, with a stop - loss at 70 US dollars. - For the arbitrage strategy, a reverse arbitrage is recommended. - For the options strategy, it is advisable to wait and see [7]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: - The US sanctions on Russian energy companies led to concerns about supply, pushing the Brent crude oil to rise 7.6% in a single week, and the near - month WTI and Brent crude oil prices approached 62 US dollars/barrel and exceeded 66 US dollars/barrel respectively [8]. - The significant decline in US crude oil, gasoline, and diesel inventories implies an improvement in demand, which may support the oil price [9]. - The improvement in Sino - US economic and trade relations boosts the demand expectation and provides short - term support for the oil price [10]. - **Negative Information**: - Fed Chairman Powell said that a December interest rate cut is not certain, and the market's pricing probability for a December rate cut dropped from 92% to 70% [11]. 2.2 Next Week's Concerns - The OPEC+ ministerial meeting on November 2nd will discuss the December production policy. The mainstream expectation is a continued small - scale increase of 13.7 million barrels per day. Iraq's request to increase its quota from 4.4 million to 5.5 million barrels per day may disrupt the balance. If the increase exceeds expectations, the oil price may fall to 60 US dollars; otherwise, it may rebound to 65 US dollars [13]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Volume - Price and Capital Interpretation - **Trend Analysis**: The crude oil price first fell and then stabilized this week. The position was at a high level, and the trend indicators improved, with the market sentiment gradually warming up. The SC position percentile was 79.26%, indicating an active capital side [15]. - **Domestic Market**: The disk rebounded and repaired, breaking the previous downward trend. The SC2512 rose 6.87% this week, closing at 468.9 yuan/barrel. As of October 31st, the INE crude oil futures position was 74,991 lots, a decrease of 8,814 lots week - on - week [17][18]. - **Foreign Market**: On Friday, the US oil main contract closed down 0.57% at 60.98 US dollars/barrel, a weekly decrease of 0.85%; the Brent crude oil main contract settled at 65.07 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.32% from last Friday. Affected by the US government shutdown, the CFTC did not release the WTI position data. As of October 28th, the ICE Brent crude oil futures position was 3,025,757 contracts, a decrease of 77,164 contracts week - on - week; the managed fund net long position was 173,887 contracts, an increase of 122,096 contracts week - on - week [18]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Crude Oil Market Monthly Spread Tracking - As of October 31st, the Brent monthly spread (01 - 03) was 0.87 US dollars/barrel, the WTI monthly spread (01 - 03) was 0.72 US dollars/barrel, and the SC monthly spread (01 - 03) was - 0.7 yuan/barrel. The monthly spreads of both domestic and foreign crude oils weakened [26]. 4.2 Crude Oil Regional Spread Tracking - As of October 24th, the SC - Brent spread was - 0.56 US dollars/barrel, and the Brent - WTI spread was 3.52 US dollars/barrel. The spread between SC and Brent crude oil weakened again due to the stronger support of geopolitical risk premiums for foreign crude oil [30]. 4.3 Crude Oil Downstream Valuation Tracking - As of October 24th, the crude oil cracking spreads in the European market strengthened comprehensively this week. In North America and the Asia - Pacific region, diesel cracking was stronger than gasoline. In the Chinese market, the cracking spreads weakened, and refinery profits continued to decline [38]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Side Tracking - From October 18th - 24th, the US crude oil production was 13.644 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 15,000 barrels per day. From October 25th - 31st, the number of active US oil rigs was 414, a week - on - week decrease of 6 [52]. 5.2 Demand - Side Tracking - From October 18th - 24th, the US refinery crude oil input was 15.219 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 511,000 barrels per day, and the refinery operating rate was 86.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 2 percentage points. From October 24th - 30th, the capacity utilization rate of independent refineries in China was 62.38%, a week - on - week increase of 1.03 percentage points, and that of major refineries was 80.50%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.39 percentage points [54]. 5.3 Inventory - Side Tracking - As of October 24th, the total US commercial crude oil inventory was 415,966 thousand barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 6,858 thousand barrels; the strategic petroleum inventory was 409,097 thousand barrels, a week - on - week increase of 533 thousand barrels; the Cushing region's petroleum inventory was 22,565 thousand barrels, a week - on - week increase of 1,334 thousand barrels. As of October 29th, the commercial crude oil inventory index at Chinese ports was 108.42, a week - on - week decrease of 1.13%, and the storage capacity accounted for 59.23% of the total capacity, a week - on - week decrease of 0.67 percentage points [56]. 5.4 Import - Export Tracking - From October 18th - 24th, the US crude oil export volume was 4.361 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 158,000 barrels per day, and the petroleum product export volume was 6.666 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 687,000 barrels per day. From October 14th - 20th, the Middle East's seaborne crude oil export volume was 16.4168 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 1.66%. This week, Russia's seaborne crude oil export volume was 3.8752 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 20.19% [58]. 5.5 Balance Sheet Tracking - EIA continued to raise its forecast for global crude oil and related liquid production in 2025 and 2026. It is expected that in 2025, the global production will be 105.85 million barrels per day, an increase of 2.67 million barrels per day compared to 2024; in 2026, it will be 107.17 million barrels per day, an increase of 1.31 million barrels per day compared to 2025. - OPEC maintained its forecast for global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2025 and 2026. In 2025, the demand will be 105.14 million barrels per day, an increase of 1.3 million barrels per day compared to 2024. In 2026, it will be 106.52 million barrels per day, an increase of 1.38 million barrels per day compared to 2025. - IEA slightly lowered its forecast for the growth rate of global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2025 and 2026 in its October report [61][62].

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current macro - demand environment is weak, and some varieties with previously high industrial profits have a need for catch - up declines. However, overall valuations are low, so there is little point in chasing short positions for most varieties. Waiting may be the best choice. The decline process can test fundamentals, and only varieties with real fundamental improvements can show long - lasting resistance during the overall market decline. Attention can be paid to varieties with a continuous divergence structure and those that increase positions, volume, and resist decline during the fall [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1. Weekly Market Viewpoint Summary - The market is centered around several themes: the US's intention to sanction Russia has led to a rebound in the crude oil market; the China - US trade negotiation has been settled with a one - year suspension of some measures; the implementation of Indonesia's B50 has encountered obstacles, causing palm oil prices to weaken. Crude oil's medium - to - long - term supply and demand remain weak, but with a low valuation, it is regarded as oscillating. China will purchase some US soybeans, providing short - term support, but the rebound space depends on the uncertainty of South American supply. The soybean - palm oil spread has continuously rebounded and significantly repaired. The high cost of promoting biodiesel at current palm oil prices has left the Indonesian government with no solutions, leading to an obvious decline in palm oil prices. The recent weakness of methanol can be seen as a catch - up decline due to its previously high production profit. In a weak macro - demand environment, high industrial profits are unlikely to last, and a valuation decline is likely. The "Zhui Feng 1" product recommended short - selling palm oil and recently exited the position according to the rules, mainly because of the palm oil's fundamental logic. Instead of relying on frequent market predictions, strategies should be used. The "Zhui Feng 1" and "Zhui Feng 2" consulting products can be subscribed to via [Nanhua Futures App - Selected Research Reports - Strategy Research Selection], and both have free trials [4]. 3.2. Data Tables - **Plate Capital Flow**: The total capital is 15.604 billion. Among them, precious metals had an outflow of 2.667 billion (-33.0%), non - ferrous metals had an inflow of 2.116 billion (35.8%), black metals had an outflow of 481 million (-10.7%), energy had an outflow of 341 million (-22.8%), chemicals had an inflow of 320 million (9.9%), feed and breeding had an inflow of 54 million (2.6%), oils and fats had an outflow of 405 million (-9.0%), and soft commodities had an inflow of 4 million (0.2%) [8]. - **Black and Non - ferrous Metals Weekly Data**: Data on price, inventory, valuation, position, position difference, and annualized basis for various black and non - ferrous metal varieties such as iron ore, rebar, and copper are provided [8]. - **Energy and Chemical Weekly Data**: Similar data for energy and chemical varieties like fuel oil, low - sulfur oil, and asphalt are presented [10]. - **Agricultural Products Weekly Data**: Data on agricultural product varieties including soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybean oil are given [11]. 3.3. Graphs - Graphs showing the capital flow of black varieties, olefin varieties, polyester varieties, other chemical varieties, energy varieties, oils and fats varieties, agricultural and sideline varieties, and non - ferrous metal plate varieties are included, with data sources from WIND and Nanhua Research [12][14][17][21][22][23][27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current spot market for caustic soda is weaker than expected, with non - aluminum sectors showing no obvious restocking behavior and speculative demand remaining subdued. As maintenance work concludes, supply pressure is rising, and the strong price of liquid chlorine is weakening cost support [1]. - The high - profit and high - production pattern restricts the price increase of caustic soda. There are limited overall contradictions, but the near - term demand and restocking rhythm are falling short of expectations, leading to a judgment of weak and volatile prices. It is recommended to adopt range - bound trading strategies within the range of [2200, 2400] [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Near - term trading logic**: The overall spot market is weak, with non - aluminum restocking falling short of expectations. Alumina is under pressure, with local supply adjustments and a slight decline in operating rates, which may affect the demand outlook for caustic soda. The chlor - alkali industry maintains medium - to - high profits, and the recent strength of liquid chlorine weakens cost support. Production is increasing, and supply pressure persists [1]. - **Long - term trading expectations**: High profits limit price increases. In the medium - to - long term, there is continued pressure from new production capacity. The realization degree and timing of downstream alumina production capacity may vary, affecting the phased restocking rhythm [1]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Market positioning**: The high - profit and high - production pattern restricts the price space of caustic soda. Overall contradictions are limited, but near - term demand and restocking rhythm are below expectations. It is recommended to trade within the range of [2200, 2400] [5]. - **Basis, calendar spread, and hedging arbitrage strategy recommendations**: Current short positions on a single - side basis are advised to be closed, or wait for signs of the spot market hitting bottom [6]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price range forecast**: The predicted monthly price range for caustic soda is 2200 - 2400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.75% and a historical percentile of 43.8% over three years [7]. - **Risk management strategy recommendations**: For inventory management, when product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, enterprises can short caustic soda futures to lock in profits and sell call options to collect premiums. For procurement management, when the regular inventory for procurement is low, enterprises can buy caustic soda futures to lock in procurement costs and sell put options to collect premiums [7]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Factory - gate prices**: The factory - gate prices of 32% caustic soda in various regions on October 31, 2025, mostly remained unchanged compared to the previous day, except for a 1.5% decrease in Shaanxi Beiyuan. The prices of 50% caustic soda and flake caustic soda also showed little change, with a 1.5% decrease in Shandong flake caustic soda [8][9]. - **Price differentials**: The price differentials between different grades and regions of caustic soda were mostly stable on October 31, 2025, with a 10 - yuan decrease in the price differential of 50% caustic soda between Guangdong and Shandong [9]. - **Futures prices and spreads**: On October 31, 2025, the caustic soda 05 contract increased by 0.12%, the 09 contract decreased by 0.16%, and the 01 contract decreased by 0.3%. The basis and spreads also showed corresponding changes [10]. 3.2 Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: There are still expectations for downstream aluminum plants to stock up on caustic soda from November to December, which may boost the spot market [10]. - **Negative information**: Caustic soda production continues to recover, increasing supply pressure. Non - aluminum sectors have not shown concentrated restocking. The high price of liquid chlorine weakens cost support [13]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Whether liquid chlorine prices will continue to rise, which would further weaken the cost support for caustic soda. - Observe the mid - and downstream demand, especially whether non - aluminum sectors will show restocking signs. - Monitor whether inventory accumulation continues [13]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - The main 2601 contract of caustic soda showed low - level fluctuations this week, with the absolute price reaching a relatively low level for the year. This is mainly related to market sentiment and weak market conditions, as non - aluminum downstream restocking in the short - term fell short of expectations [14]. - **Basis and spread structure**: The spot market remained stable, with the 32% caustic soda from Shandong Jinling converted to the futures price at 2406 yuan/ton, with a premium of 95 - 100 yuan over the 01 contract. The spot market was weak, and the 12 - 01 spread was positive [16]. 3.4 Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - Profit valuation is moderately high. This week, the price of industrial salt remained stable, while the price of liquid chlorine was strong, resulting in high chlor - alkali profits. Currently, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 250 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu it is 200 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan). The current profit of caustic soda in Shandong is over 400 yuan/ton (including liquid chlorine) [21]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - In terms of exports, the CFR price in Southeast Asia increased by 5 US dollars week - on - week to around 460 US dollars, remaining generally stable. There is an expected substitution effect on overseas caustic soda demand, and the sustainability of exports needs to be observed [28]. 3.5 Chapter 5: Supply, Demand, and Inventory 3.5.1 Spot Data - **Caustic soda prices**: The report provides historical price trends of 32% caustic soda, 50% caustic soda, and flake caustic soda in different regions, as well as price differentials between regions and grades, and spot - to - futures conversion prices [30][35][40]. - **External market prices**: It shows the historical price trends of caustic soda in international markets such as Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, the United States, and Western Europe [84]. 3.5.2 Supply Side - **Production losses**: It presents the seasonal trends of weekly and monthly production losses of caustic soda [93]. - **Liquid caustic soda production and operating rates**: The weekly and monthly production and operating rates of liquid caustic soda in different regions are provided, showing an overall upward trend in production and relatively stable operating rates [95][96]. - **Flake caustic soda production and operating rates**: The weekly production and operating rates of flake caustic soda in different regions are presented, with production and operating rates also showing certain trends [105]. 3.5.3 Demand Side - **Downstream product data**: It includes the spot price, cost, and profit of alumina, as well as the operating rates of downstream products such as propylene oxide, epichlorohydrin, and viscose staple fiber [112][113]. - **Export structure**: The export structure of caustic soda by continent is shown [119]. 3.5.4 Inventory - **Liquid caustic soda inventory**: The weekly factory inventories of liquid caustic soda in different regions and the overall inventory trends are provided [121][124]. - **Flake caustic soda inventory**: The weekly factory inventories and total industry inventories of flake caustic soda in different regions are presented [140][142].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The core contradictions affecting PVC trends include weak demand leading to high inventory and large warrant pressure, slow supply clearance due to enterprise nature or material balance issues, and an oversupply situation caused by new PVC production capacity and insufficient domestic demand [1]. - The PVC market is currently in a state of stabilizing from a decline and entering a phase of range - bound trading, but there is still a possibility of further decline. However, the downside space is limited, and selling options may yield higher comprehensive returns than long - term bottom - fishing [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Weak demand in recent years has led to high visible inventory and large warrant pressure, suppressing the monthly spread near the risk - free level [1]. - Despite low upstream profits, supply clearance is slow due to enterprise - related or material - balance issues [1]. - This year is a peak year for new PVC production capacity, and domestic demand cannot absorb the increased volume, leading to a continuous deterioration of the fundamentals [1]. 1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: The PVC market is in a state of stabilizing from a decline and entering a phase of range - bound trading, with limited downside space, about 100 - 200 yuan. Selling options may have higher comprehensive returns [5]. - **Basis, Monthly Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: - Basis strategy: Full - scale hedging should continue to roll in and out [6]. - Monthly spread strategy: Hold the 1 - 5 reverse spread [7]. - Hedging arbitrage strategy: Consider selling put options on PVC and caustic soda simultaneously. The probability of loss for this position is low, and the overall risk is controllable [7]. - **Recent Strategy Review**: - Continue to hold PVC selling 4600PUT and SH selling 2320PUT, proposed on October 12 [8]. - Continue to hold the previous double - selling of put options and gradually sell 4900CALL in batches, proposed on October 26 [8]. 2. This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: - The overall inventory in East China has decreased for the first time in the past three to four months, but the sustainability after the subsequent increase in production is uncertain [17]. - There is an expectation of price increases in Qinghai salt and inland coal due to tight supply [17]. - The Sino - US negotiation feedback is good, and the overall risk appetite has improved [17]. - **Negative Information**: - Formosa Plastics in Taiwan has significantly lowered the market pre - sale price for November by about $40, suppressing China's export market [12]. - Traditional industrial products remain weak, and many varieties are continuously being short - sold [12]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: The market continued to decline this week, but the trading volume did not increase again. The willingness to hold goods was poor, and the basis changed little [14]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Focus on the sunset review of anti - dumping by India, which is expected to be finalized around mid - November, with a high market expectation of continuation [18]. - Pay attention to the Politburo meeting [18]. 3. Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement**: In the first half of the week, due to the positive sentiment of the Sino - US negotiation, short - sellers reduced their positions. In the second half of the week, after the negotiation results were confirmed, short - sellers increased their positions, and PVC reached a new low [19]. - **Basis and Monthly Spread Structure**: The basis changed little this week, and the 1 - 5 monthly spread weakened from - 292 to - 309, moving in sync with the basis [21]. 4. Conventional Industry Data Display 4.1 Inventory Changes and Pre - sales - Various inventory data, including PVC warehouse receipt quantity, social inventory, factory inventory, and upstream net inventory, are presented seasonally [23][25][31]. 4.2 Disk Indicators and Spot - Multiple disk indicators, such as futures trading volume, open interest, basis, and monthly spread, are shown seasonally [37][38][44]. 4.3 Industrial Chain Production Profit Situation - The production profit data of different links in the PVC industrial chain, including chlorine - alkali, ethylene - based, and related by - products, are presented seasonally [66][68][79]. 4.4 Output Situation - New production capacity plans from 2024 to 2026 are listed, with a total of 60 in 2024, 260 in 2025, and 190 in 2026 [106]. - The weekly and monthly output data of PVC, including电石 - based and ethylene - based, are presented seasonally, along with production capacity utilization rates [107][112][115]. 4.5 Import and Export - The import and export volume data of PVC powder, PVC paste resin, and related products are presented seasonally, along with export - related indicators such as export backlog and export profit [117][120][123]. 4.6 Downstream Feedback - The price and export data of downstream PVC products, such as profiles, wall coverings, and pipes, are presented, along with the operating rates of downstream industries [160][163][165]. 4.7 Real Estate Data - Multiple real - estate - related data, including development funds, construction area, sales area, and cement - related data, are presented seasonally [173][174][192]. 4.8 Disk Ratio - The PVC/PP, PVC/PE, PVC/FG, and PVC/RB disk ratio data are presented seasonally [198][199][200].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core contradiction affecting the short - term price trend of industrial silicon futures lies in the game between the macro "anti - involution" expectation and the weak fundamentals. The industry has an expectation of eliminating backward production capacity, but there are practical resistances in the process of capacity optimization. The cost of industrial silicon is mainly 30% electricity, so coal price fluctuations affect it. In November, the industry's operating rate is expected to rise, and the output in October may reach the annual high. The downstream demand shows different pulling effects, with polysilicon production scheduled to decline in November, organic silicon monomer plants having maintenance plans, and the aluminum alloy operating rate remaining stable. The market pricing logic is further inclined to polysilicon futures. [1] - In the short term, the price of industrial silicon futures will closely follow the price fluctuations of related varieties such as polysilicon and coking coal, and is likely to maintain a volatile pattern. With the arrival of the dry season, the market logic will gradually revolve around power costs, and then the downward space of industrial silicon will be limited. [2] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestions 1.1 Core Contradiction - The core contradiction is the game between the macro "anti - involution" expectation and the weak fundamentals. There are resistances in the capacity optimization process due to the industry structure. The cost of industrial silicon is affected by coal prices. The supply is expected to increase in November, and the output in October may reach the annual high. The downstream demand varies, and the market pricing logic is shifting towards polysilicon futures. [1] - Near - end trading logic (before the end of the year): The total production schedule of industrial silicon in October continues to increase, and the output on the supply side will reach the annual high. The policies of the downstream polysilicon industry will have an impact on the price of industrial silicon. [3] - Far - end trading logic (after the end of the year): The electricity price during the dry season will increase the production cost, and the price center of gravity will gradually move up. With the arrival of the off - season, the demand for industrial silicon is likely to weaken. [4] 1.2 Trading - based Strategy Suggestions - **Trend judgment**: Wide - range oscillation. The price ranges are: oscillation range 8400 - 9400; low - level range 7800 - 8300; high - level range 9500 - 10000. [5] - **Single - side strategy**: Short SI2601 at the high - level range; long SI2605 at the low - level range. [7] - **Month - spread strategy**: Reverse spread of SI2601 - SI2605. [7] - **Basis strategy**: Wait and see. [7] - **Option strategy**: Sell SI2601 - C - 9500 when the volatility is high; buy SI2601 - P - 8300 when the volatility is low. [7] 1.3 Industry Operation Suggestions - The support level of the industrial silicon main contract is 8000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.2% and a historical percentile of 68.0% in 3 years. [8] - For silicon industry enterprises, different hedging strategies are proposed according to different scenarios such as sales, procurement, and inventory management, with corresponding hedging tools, ratios, and suggested entry intervals. [8] Chapter 2: Important Information and Concerned Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information Review - On October 26, the 100,000 - ton/year hydropower silicon energy - saving and environmental protection project of Yongchang Silicon Industry successfully passed the acceptance of reaching the production standard. [9] 2.2 Next Week's Concerned Events No relevant information provided. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Futures trends**: The closing price of the industrial silicon weighted index contract this week was 9095 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.59%. The trading volume was 372,319 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 13.12%. The open interest was 408,543 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 16,059 lots. The month - spread of SI2601 - SI2605 was in a back structure, with a week - on - week increase of 25 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts was 47,253 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 1074 lots. The price may weaken further, and key support levels need to be focused on. The market is in a state of equilibrium, and the wide - range oscillation range of 8600 - 9300 yuan/ton needs attention. [12][14] - **Option situation**: The 20 - day historical volatility of industrial silicon has been decreasing, while the implied volatility of at - the - money options has been rising significantly. The option open - interest PCR has been increasing, indicating a growing bearish sentiment in the market. [16][17] - **Capital movement**: The net short positions of key industrial silicon seats have increased recently, indicating signs of institutional short - selling. [19] - **Month - spread structure**: The current industrial silicon futures contracts show a stable contango structure. [21] - **Basis structure**: The basis of the industrial silicon main contract is at the average level, and there is a relatively high probability of it strengthening further. [25] 2.2 Downstream Futures and Capital Trends - Polysilicon: The closing price of the polysilicon weighted index contract this week was 52,045 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 4.08%. The trading volume was 289,100 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 29.56%. The open interest was 231,600 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 45,300 lots. The month - spread of PS2601 - PS2605 was in a back structure, with a week - on - week increase of 40 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts was 9420 lots, a week - on - week increase of 810 lots. The net long positions are showing a slight increase. [27] - Aluminum alloy: The closing price of the aluminum alloy weighted index contract this week was 20,791 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 8407 lots, and the open interest was 26,300 lots. The month - spread of AD2512 - AD2601 was in a contango structure, and the number of warehouse receipts was 47,899 lots. The net long positions are increasing. [27] 2.3 Silicon Industry Chain Spot Data - Provides price data for various products in the industrial silicon industry chain, including different grades of industrial silicon, industrial silicon powder, trichlorosilane, polysilicon, organic silicon DMC, and aluminum alloy ADC12, along with their daily and weekly changes. [30][31] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit - Since reaching the profit low in May, the average profit of the industrial silicon industry is currently in a continuous repair channel. The polysilicon industry's profit is stable, providing important support for the demand of industrial silicon. The profit of the aluminum alloy industry is showing a weakening trend, and the profit level of the organic silicon industry is decreasing. [32] Chapter 5: Fundamentals 5.1 Upstream - Industrial Silicon - Provides weekly production and operating rate data from different sources such as Baichuan, Steel Union, and SMM. The production of industrial silicon shows different trends, and the operating rates also vary. [36][38] - There are also inventory data for different regions and types of industrial silicon, including Xinjiang, Yunnan, Sichuan, and social inventories at ports. [52][54][55] 5.2 Downstream - Polysilicon - The weekly production of domestic polysilicon from SMM and Baichuan shows a decreasing trend, and the operating rate has a slight change. The weekly inventory of polysilicon shows different changes in different parts such as total inventory, production enterprise inventory, silicon wafer enterprise inventory, and warehouse - receipt inventory. [56][58] 5.3 Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - The weekly operating rates of primary and secondary aluminum alloys are increasing, and the inventory shows different changes. There are also seasonal data on production, operating rates, and PMI of aluminum alloys. [61][62] 5.4 Downstream - Organic Silicon - The weekly production of organic silicon DMC is increasing slightly, and there are also data on monthly net exports and inventory of organic silicon products. [65][66] 5.5 Terminal - Provides data on China's real - estate sales area, automobile monthly production, and photovoltaic monthly new - installed capacity, reflecting the terminal demand situation. [68]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The overall trend of Shanghai Nickel and stainless steel was weak this week, with the fundamentals loosening. The market's risk preference was affected by the uncertainty of the December interest rate cut and the repeated progress of Sino - US tariffs. The new regulations for Indonesia's 2026 nickel ore quota application are strict, and the 2026 quota is likely to decrease, tightening the supply at the ore end. The price of ferronickel has been continuously decreasing due to weak downstream demand [3][4]. - In the short - term, the trading logic of nickel and stainless steel futures follows macro - sentiment, while in the long - term, it focuses on fundamentals. The demand for new energy is an important factor in the long - term, and the construction and renovation of underground pipelines during the 14th Five - Year Plan may increase the demand for stainless steel in the medium - term [4][7]. - The basis and monthly spread of nickel and stainless steel are currently stable, with no obvious arbitrage opportunities. The previous high - selling and low - buying strategy for nickel and stainless steel has seen a decline in valuation, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. Group 3: Chapter Summaries Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The overall trend of Shanghai Nickel and stainless steel was weak this week. The macro - level factors such as the uncertainty of the December interest rate cut and the repeated progress of Sino - US tariffs affected the market's risk preference. The new regulations for Indonesia's 2026 nickel ore quota application are strict, and the 2026 quota is likely to decrease. The new energy sector is in the peak season, but the actual transactions are stable. The price of ferronickel has been decreasing due to weak downstream demand, and stainless steel is also in a weak state. Although there are some positive macro - signals, the overall situation remains under pressure [3]. 1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - The basis and monthly spread of nickel and stainless steel are currently stable, with no obvious arbitrage opportunities. The previous strategies included buying Shanghai Nickel 2511 futures contracts, Shanghai Nickel 2511 call options, and Shanghai Nickel 2512 futures contracts, which have all been exited [9]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - For nickel, in the case of inventory management, when the product sales price falls and there is a risk of inventory devaluation, it is recommended to short Shanghai Nickel futures and sell call options. In the case of procurement management, when worried about rising raw material prices, it is recommended to buy Shanghai Nickel forward contracts, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options. Similar strategies are also provided for stainless steel [10][11]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Sino - US relations have eased, the Fed decided to cut interest rates this week, many stainless steel manufacturers announced production cuts mainly for the 200 - series, and the approaching rainy season in the Philippines may affect the supply of nickel ore [12]. - **Negative Information**: The inventory of pure nickel is high, the trading center of ferronickel has moved down, stainless steel has entered the off - season, and the expectation of a December interest rate cut is uncertain [12]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Unilateral Trends**: The nickel and stainless steel futures markets oscillated this week, with prices first rebounding slightly and then falling again. The cost reduction led to a more significant decline. The stainless steel market is in the off - season, with weak demand and some manufacturers announcing production cuts [13]. - **Fund Flow Analysis**: The net positions of key profitable seats have decreased, and the confidence in short - term price increases has weakened. For stainless steel, the inflow of funds is more cautious, with some funds shorting at high levels and reducing positions during the week [14]. - **External Market**: The LME introduced policies to limit large - scale near - month positions to avoid malicious short - squeezing. The external market was relatively weak this week, with inventory digestion difficult, which suppressed the upside space [27]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - Under the current nickel price range, the profits of the upstream and downstream of the industry chain are under pressure. The profit space for producing electrowon nickel through different processes is thin, and some pyrometallurgical production lines are in a loss state. The profit of ferronickel has improved but has not turned positive, and there is still support at the bottom [39][40]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - The supply of the nickel industry chain is relatively stable. The inventory of nickel ore raw materials in China is high, but the supply may be affected by the rainy season in the Philippines. Many stainless steel manufacturers announced production cuts for the 200 - series, and the production of domestic ferronickel is at a historical low due to competition from Indonesian ferronickel [43]. 5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - The overall demand for the nickel industry chain has been weak for a long time. The demand for new energy vehicles has increased during the peak season, and the demand for nickel salts and nickel sulfate in the new energy sector has recovered. However, the demand for stainless steel is relatively weak, and the peak season demand has fallen short of expectations. Although there are some positive factors in exports, the short - term demand adjustment is neutral [46]. 5.3 Balance Interpretation - In the short - term, the supply of the nickel industry is relatively abundant, with high - speed growth in the production of primary nickel in Indonesia and China. The main variable in the industry balance lies in the new energy demand. Stainless steel demand has limited marginal growth, but the construction and renovation of underground pipelines during the 14th Five - Year Plan may increase the demand in the medium - term. The new energy sector is in a tight - balance and short - supply state during the peak season, but it is difficult to reverse the overall oversupply situation [57].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The current short - term trading focus in the market is on whether the photovoltaic storage platform will be established in November, which will later shift to the expectation game of "centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November". Be vigilant against the disturbance of false information to market sentiment during policy or nodal vacuums. The volatility of polysilicon futures is high, and investors are advised to participate cautiously and control positions and hedge risks [2][3] - The near - term trading logic (before early December) centers on whether the photovoltaic platform company will be established in mid - November and the downstream's weak willingness to accept warehouse receipts. The far - term trading logic (after early December) shows that the market is under the dual pressure of "high inventory + weak demand" [7][8] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The core factors influencing polysilicon futures prices are the establishment of the photovoltaic storage platform in November, the pressure of centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November, and the timely introduction of photovoltaic policies. The market rumor is that the establishment of the photovoltaic storage platform has been postponed from mid - October to November [2] - The market shows "weak supply and demand" characteristics. Supply - side: The upstream polysilicon production in the photovoltaic industry decreased this week, and the overall inventory is still accumulating. Demand - side: The downstream silicon wafer production decreased week - on - week, and the inventory increased. Long - term demand depends on the 2026 photovoltaic policy and the increase in the grid - connected electricity price [2] 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Base - spread strategy**: Observe - **Option strategy**: Under low volatility, buy PS2512 - C - 58000 and PS2512 - P - 49000 [9] 1.3 Industry Operation Recommendations - **Trend judgment**: Wide - range oscillation - **Price range**: Oscillation range: 50000 - 57000; Low - level range: 47000 - 49000; High - level range: 58000 - 60000 - **Strategy suggestions**: - **Unilateral strategy**: Go long on the PS2601 contract at the low - level range and go short at the high - level range - **Calendar - spread strategy**: Long the PS2601 - PS2605 spread [11] Chapter 2: Market Information 2.1 This Week's Main Information - On October 24, the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposed to accelerate the development of strategic emerging industry clusters such as new energy, new materials, aerospace, and low - altitude economy [12] 2.2 Next Week's Focus Events No information provided. Chapter 3: Market Analysis 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Analysis - **Market review and technical analysis**: This week, the polysilicon weighted index contract closed at 56371 yuan/ton, up 8.31% week - on - week. The trading volume was 413,800 lots, up 43.11% week - on - week, and the open interest was 258,000 lots, up 26,400 lots week - on - week. The PS2601 - PS2605 spread was in a back structure, up 95 yuan/ton week - on - week. The number of warehouse receipts was 9590 lots, up 170 lots week - on - week. The price showed technical characteristics of "long - position increase driving price up" and had the basis for further strengthening in the short term [14] - **Option situation**: The 20 - day historical volatility of polysilicon decreased, indicating a narrowing of actual price fluctuations. The implied volatility of at - the - money options strengthened, showing an increase in market participants' expectation of future price fluctuations. The option open - interest PCR was in a volatile state, indicating a relatively balanced power between long and short positions [17] - **Capital flow**: The net long - position scale showed signs of increase [19] - **Calendar - spread structure**: The polysilicon futures term structure was in a back structure, with a higher increase in near - month contracts and a lower increase in far - month contracts [22] - **Base - spread structure**: The basis of the main contract weakened this week due to the sharp rise in futures prices [25] 3.2 Futures and Price Data - The prices of most products in the photovoltaic industry chain were stable or slightly decreased this week. For example, the price of N - type re - feeding material decreased by 0.73 yuan/kg week - on - week, a decrease of 1.38% [28] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Profit Tracking of the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - The overall profitability of polysilicon enterprises is improving. After reaching a phased low in June, the industry's profitability has been continuously repaired. The spot profit of polysilicon has reached up to 10,000 yuan/ton. The profit of the silane method is higher than that of the improved Siemens method [30] - From the futures perspective, the gross profit margin of polysilicon futures is about 31.61%, and the profit increased this week due to the rise in futures prices [30] Chapter 5: Fundamental Data 5.1 Polysilicon Supply - **Domestic production**: SMM's weekly polysilicon production was 28,200 tons, down 4.41% week - on - week; Baichuan's was 31,080 tons, down 1.46% week - on - week. Baichuan's weekly operating rate was 49%, down 0.02 percentage points week - on - week [33] - **Inventory**: The total weekly polysilicon inventory was 507,000 tons, up 0.66% week - on - week. The inventory of production enterprises, warehouse receipts, etc. showed different degrees of increase [40] 5.2 Silicon Wafer Supply - **Production**: The weekly silicon wafer production was 14.24 GW, down 3.33% week - on - week - **Inventory**: The weekly silicon wafer inventory was 18.93 GW, up 2.49% week - on - week [43] 5.3 Battery Cell Supply - **Production**: No specific production data was provided, but the monthly production and operating rate showed seasonal characteristics - **Inventory**: The weekly battery cell inventory was 6.02 GW, down 15.21% week - on - week [55] 5.4 Photovoltaic Module Supply - **Production**: The monthly production and operating rate of photovoltaic modules showed seasonal characteristics - **Inventory**: The weekly photovoltaic module inventory was 31.8 GW, down 5.07% week - on - week [63] 5.5 Bidding - The photovoltaic winning bid capacity was 1073.11 MW, up 179.80% week - on - week, and the winning bid average price was 0.71 yuan/watt, down 1.39% week - on - week [66] 5.6 Installation and Application - The monthly new photovoltaic installation in China showed seasonal characteristics. The data on green power generation and the proportion of photovoltaic power generation in green power were also presented [69][70]