Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The pulp and offset paper may be relatively volatile in the short term. Some pulp mills are under maintenance, reducing supply - side pressure. However, downstream paper开工率 varies, cultural paper consumption has not continued its positive trend from August, and port inventories are relatively high, restricting pulp prices. For offset paper, price increases by some paper mills are favorable for futures prices, and inventory reduction should be monitored [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Forecast and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range for pulp is 4750 - 5350, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.41% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 17.81%. For offset printing paper, the price range is 4150 - 4250, with a volatility of 6.31% and a historical percentile of 8.69% [2]. Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: When inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, sell pulp/offset printing paper futures (SP2601, OP2601) at 25% hedging ratio, with suggested entry ranges of 5300 - 5400 for pulp and 4250 - 4300 for offset paper. Also, sell call options (SP2601C5300, OP2601C4250) at 25% ratio when volatility is appropriate [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When inventory is low, buy pulp/offset printing paper futures (SP2601, OP2601) at 25% hedging ratio, with entry ranges of 4950 - 5050 for pulp and 4100 - 4150 for offset paper. Sell put options (SP2512P4850, OP2601P4050) at 25% ratio when volatility is appropriate [2]. Market Analysis - **Pulp**: Spot prices are stable. Some pulp mills' maintenance eases supply - side pressure, but downstream demand is mixed, cultural paper consumption is weak, and high port inventories limit prices. It may wait for the traditional peak season for support [3]. - **Offset Paper**: Starting from November, many paper mills will raise prices by 200 yuan/ton, which is favorable for futures prices, and the futures price shows a slightly upward - trending volatile pattern. Attention should be paid to inventory reduction [3]. Trading Strategies - **Pulp**: In the futures market, buy on dips or wait and see; in the options market, sell out - of - the - money put options for far - month contracts [11]. - **Offset Paper**: In the futures market, sell on rallies; in the options market, wait and see [11]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: Paper mills are raising paper prices, there are expectations of a Fed rate cut, and overseas broad - leaf pulp has production cuts and price increases [7][12]. - **Negative Factors**: There is a possibility of reduced overseas shipping costs, high port inventories are difficult to reduce, and the peak demand season is not prosperous [12]. Price and Spread Data - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On October 29, 2025, pulp futures prices (SP11, SP01, SP03) and offset paper futures prices (OP01, OP02, OP03) had different daily and weekly changes, and there were also corresponding price spreads between different contracts [15]. - **Spot Prices and Regional Spreads**: On October 28, 2025, pulp and double - offset paper spot prices in different regions (Shandong, South China, Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai, etc.) and their regional spreads are provided [16]. Basis Data - **Pulp Basis**: The daily changes in pulp basis on October 29, 2025, including different pulp brands and contract combinations, are presented [9]. - **Offset Paper Basis**: The daily changes in offset paper basis on October 29, 2025, for different mills and contract combinations, are shown [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Focus on the central bank's bond - buying operations. Maintain a long - position idea for treasury bond futures, hold existing long positions at low levels, and avoid chasing high prices [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - On Wednesday, treasury bond futures opened higher. Except for TL, all contracts maintained gains. TL weakened significantly in the afternoon and was the only one to close down. The marginal relaxation of the capital market led to the DR001 falling to around 1.41%. There were 557.7 billion yuan in open - market reverse repurchases, with a net withdrawal of 80.5 billion yuan [1] 2. Important News - The Wall Street Journal reported that leaders of China and the United States will discuss a trade framework to reduce US tariffs on Chinese goods, and the US may halve the current 20% fentanyl tariff on Chinese goods. Chinese Foreign Ministry announced that President Xi Jinping will meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 local time [2] 3. Market Analysis - The stock market performed strongly today, with the broader market standing above 4,000 points again, but the bond market was unaffected. The yields of 1 - 3 - year spot bonds declined by 3 - 4bp. There were rumors that large banks were buying all new bonds issued this year with a maturity of less than 3 years. The game around the central bank's bond - buying operations mainly focused on the short - to - medium - term in recent days. Yesterday, the 3 - year yield declined the most, and today, it spread to bonds with a maturity of less than 3 years. Attention should be paid to whether the long - term yields can follow the decline after the short - term interest rates reach a certain level [3] 4. Treasury Bond Futures Daily Data | Contract | 2025 - 10 - 29 | 2025 - 10 - 28 | Today's Change | Contract Position (Lots) on 2025 - 10 - 29 | Contract Position (Lots) on 2025 - 10 - 28 | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.564 | 102.47 | 0.094 | 80,824 | 78,077 | 2,747 | | TF2512 | 106.06 | 105.905 | 0.155 | 175,746 | 162,038 | 13,708 | | T2512 | 108.58 | 108.425 | 0.155 | 282,522 | 274,231 | 8,291 | | TL2512 | 115.93 | 116.14 | - 0.21 | 185,819 | 185,933 | - 114 | | TS Basis (CTD) | - 0.0241 | - 0.0023 | - 0.0218 | TS Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 56,118 | 39,423 | 16,695 | | TF Basis (CTD) | - 0.0746 | 0.085 | - 0.1596 | TF Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 99,318 | 67,869 | 31,449 | | T Basis (CTD) | - 0.0279 | 0.1987 | - 0.2266 | T Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 91,358 | 75,068 | 16,290 | | TL Basis (CTD) | - 0.0156 | 0.3712 | - 0.3868 | TL Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 125,436 | 123,331 | 2,105 | [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The release of the full - version of the "15th Five - Year Plan Proposal" after yesterday's market close boosted market sentiment. Today, the stock index rose overall after the opening, with the turnover of the two markets rebounding, and the relative advantage of small and medium - cap stock indexes continued. The full - version mentioned finance, further stabilizing market expectations, emphasizing the importance of technology, and the new AI concept is positive for the technology sector. The impact of the meeting is expected to last about two weeks. The basis of stock index futures rebounded collectively today, and the market sentiment improved overall. Therefore, affected by the "15th Five - Year Plan", the stock index is expected to run strongly in the short term, and the relative advantage of small and medium - cap stocks will continue. Tonight, the Fed's October interest - rate decision is expected to cut interest rates by 25bp. Attention should be paid to the subsequent interest - rate cut path. If the statement is hawkish, the A - share market will be under pressure [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Today, the stock indexes closed up collectively, with small - cap stocks showing stronger performance. For example, the CSI 300 index closed up 1.19%. The turnover of the two markets rebounded by 1.0817 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IH and IM rose with shrinking volume, while IF and IC rose with expanding volume [3]. Important Information - The full text of the "15th Five - Year Plan Proposal" proposed to take extraordinary measures to promote decisive breakthroughs in key core technologies in key areas, implement the "Artificial Intelligence +" action comprehensively, and boost consumption vigorously. - The "small non - farm" ADP released weekly employment data. As of the four weeks ending October 11, the average number of new private - sector jobs in the United States was about 14,000. - The Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council stated that it is willing to create broad space for peaceful reunification but will never promise to abandon the use of force [4]. Strategy Recommendation - Long - term long positions should continue to be held [5]. Stock Index Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 1.23 | 0.39 | 2.12 | 1.42 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 10.0933 | 4.5105 | 13.4767 | 18.7636 | | Trading volume change (10,000 lots) | - 1.1905 | - 0.6016 | 0.8363 | - 2.3657 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 25.8558 | 9.4975 | 25.2815 | 34.8768 | | Open interest change (10,000 lots) | 0.0439 | - 0.0762 | 0.9663 | - 0.525 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.70 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 1.95 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 1.32 | | Turnover of the two markets (100 million yuan) | 2256.03 | | Turnover change (100 million yuan) | 108.17 | [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - According to the closing prices of adjacent trading days, the Nanhua Composite Index rose 0.71% today. Among the sector indices, only the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index fell by -0.42%, while the rest of the sectors rose. The Nanhua Precious Metals Index had the largest increase of 1.69%, and the Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index had the smallest increase of 0.7%. Among the theme indices, only the Oilseeds and Oils Index fell by -0.88%, while the rest of the theme indices rose. The Black Raw Materials Index had the largest increase of 1.91%, and the Economic Crops Index had the smallest increase of 0.09%. Among the single - variety indices of commodity futures, the coking coal index had the largest increase of 4.83%, and the rapeseed index had the largest decrease of -2.85% [1][3] Summaries by Related Catalogs Market Data - Today's closing price of the Nanhua Composite Index is 2557.68, and the previous day's was 2539.68. The closing price of the Nanhua Precious Metals Index is 1472.96, and the Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index is 918.58 [3] Main Single - Variety Index Yield vs Volatility - No specific content provided Contribution of Each Variety's Daily Increase/Decrease to Index Increase/Decrease - No specific content provided Agricultural Products Sector - Among the agricultural products sector, palm oil fell by -1.29%, rapeseed oil by -2.11%, rapeseed by -2.85%, rapeseed meal by -0.96%, corn by -0.33%, while live pigs rose by 0.21% [8] Energy and Chemical Sector - In the energy and chemical sector, coal rose by 0.71%, and crude oil fell by -0.25% [11] Black Sector - No specific single - variety increase/decrease data provided for the black sector, but there is a historical trend chart of the Nanhua Composite Index, sector indices, and theme indices (normalized) [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The current peak season for asphalt has not shown better-than-expected performance. In the short term, due to increased external disturbances, it is recommended to wait and see or try short positions after the futures price reaches the resistance level. In the medium to long term, demand in the north will gradually end as the temperature drops, while in the south, the rush - repair demand may boost overall consumption after the rainfall decreases. The raw material shortage and high cracking spread situation persist, and the spot basis continues to weaken, indicating a gradual decline in demand [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range for the asphalt main contract is 3000 - 3450 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 17.38% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 26.08% [2]. 2. Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short the bu2512 asphalt futures at 3650 - 3750 yuan/ton with a 25% hedging ratio to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell the bu2512C3500 call option at 30 - 40 yuan with a 20% ratio to reduce capital costs and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [2]. Procurement Management - For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy the bu2512 asphalt futures at 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell the bu2512C3500 put option at 25 - 35 yuan with a 20% ratio to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [2]. 3. Core Contradictions - Influenced by news such as the US B - 1B bomber approaching Venezuela and sanctions on Russia, both crude oil and asphalt have risen. Although the short - term impact on Venezuelan crude oil shipments is not significant, the market is worried about asphalt raw material supply. This week, asphalt supply decreased due to refinery maintenance, while demand remained weak, mainly consuming social inventory. The inventory structure improved, with stable refinery inventory and declining social inventory. The cracking spread remained high due to raw material shortages. Crude oil prices rebounded strongly, causing the asphalt futures price to rise but the spot basis to weaken, indicating weakening demand [3]. 4. Factors Affecting Prices Bullish Factors - The US sent bombers near Venezuela; Shandong's Shengxing and Lanqiao refineries plan to shut down for asphalt production; Sino - US tariff tensions may ease; The US canceled the "Trump - Putin meeting", imposed more sanctions on Russia, and the US is purchasing strategic petroleum reserves [5][6]. Bearish Factors - OPEC continues to increase production [6]. 5. Price and Basis Data - On October 29, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3280 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan from the previous day and 50 yuan from the previous week; the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3470 yuan/ton, unchanged; the North China spot price was 3300 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan from the previous day and 30 yuan from the previous week; the South China spot price was 3450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan from the previous day and 50 yuan from the previous week. The basis and cracking spread data also showed corresponding changes [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report Although in the medium - to - long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will boost the precious metal prices, in the short term, they are in an adjustment phase. Investors should watch for mid - term opportunities to buy on dips, and those with existing long positions should hold them cautiously. London gold has resistance at 4000 and 4150, with support moving down to the 3800 - 3850 area; silver has resistance at 48 and 50 - 50.5, with support at 46 and strong support at 44 [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review On Tuesday, precious metal prices continued to adjust, showing a V - shaped trend. Global trade easing and the alleviation of silver spot liquidity squeeze affected the market. Trump's intervention in the Fed enhanced gold's investment appeal. The surrounding US dollar index and 10Y US Treasury yield declined, US stocks rose, European stocks were mixed, Bitcoin pulled back, the South China Non - ferrous Metals Index adjusted significantly, and crude oil fell. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3968.1 per ounce, down 1.28%; US silver 2512 contract closed at $47.14 per ounce, up 0.78%. SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 901.38 yuan per gram, down 4.2%; SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 11049 yuan per kilogram, down 3.32% [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings Interest rate cut expectations fluctuated slightly. According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in October was 0.5%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut was 99.5%. For December, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut was 8%, a 50 - basis - point cut was 91.6%, and a 75 - basis - point cut was 0.4%. For January, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut was 3.8%, a 50 - basis - point cut was 48.1%, and a 75 - basis - point cut was 47.9%. SPDR Gold ETF holdings remained at 1038.94 tons; iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 131.22 tons to 15209.57 tons. SHFE silver inventory increased by 9.8 tons to 657.4 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 145.4 tons to 905.2 tons as of the week ending October 24 [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus In terms of data, focus on the preliminary value of US Q3 GDP on Thursday and US September PCE data on Friday. For events, pay attention to the Fed FOMC's interest rate decision at 02:00 on Thursday, Fed Chair Powell's press conference at 02:30, and the European Central Bank's interest rate decision at 21:15 on Thursday. Also, watch the APEC leaders' summit in South Korea, Trump's visits to Japan (until October 29) and South Korea [4]. 3.4 Precious Metal Price and Inventory Tables - **Price Table**: SHFE gold main - continuous contract was at 901.38 yuan per gram, down 3.51%; SGX gold TD was at 896.69 yuan per gram, down 3.61%; CME gold main contract was at $3968.1 per ounce, down 0.72%. SHFE silver main - continuous contract was at 11049 yuan per kilogram, down 3.03%; SGX silver TD was at 10996 yuan per kilogram, down 3.08%; CME silver main contract was at $47.14 per ounce, up 0.66%. SHFE - TD gold was at 4.69 yuan per gram, up 21.82%; SHFE - TD silver was at 53 yuan per kilogram, up 226.67%. CME gold - silver ratio was 84.1769, down 1.38% [6][7]. - **Inventory and Position Table**: SHFE gold inventory was 87015 kilograms, unchanged; CME gold inventory was 1196.0785 tons, down 0.6%. SHFE gold position was 175916 lots, down 2.71%; SPDR gold position was 1038.92 tons, unchanged. SHFE silver inventory was 657.427 tons, up 1.51%; CME silver inventory was 15180.4568 tons, down 0.91%; SGX silver inventory was 905.235 tons, down 13.84%. SHFE silver position was 321876 lots, down 5.8%; SLV silver position was 15209.570998 tons, down 0.86% [16]. 3.5 Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary The US dollar index was at 98.7245, down 0.09%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was at 7.0963, down 0.18%. The Dow Jones Industrial Index was at 47706.37 points, up 0.34%. WTI crude oil spot was at $60.15 per barrel, down 1.89%. LmeS copper 03 was at $11029.5 per ton, up 0.26%. The 10Y US Treasury yield was 3.99%, down 0.5%; the 10Y US real interest rate was 1.71%, down 1.16%; the 10 - 2Y US Treasury yield spread was 0.52%, down 1.89% [21].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Macroeconomics and Financial Futures - The GDP growth rate in Q3 declined as expected, but the pressure to achieve the annual target is controllable. The GDP deflator shows a recovery trend, and its sustainability is worth noting. Fiscal policies are clearly发力 to support the economy, and the subsequent pace of domestic demand repair is crucial. The stock market reacted positively after the release of the communique of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, and the stock index may perform according to historical patterns [2]. - Optimistic expectations for Sino-US trade negotiations have increased market risk appetite, which is beneficial for the RMB to appreciate against the US dollar. The central bank's guidance on the exchange rate is also a key factor. The key to the subsequent market trend lies in the Fed's interest rate meeting. The market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points [4]. - The policy orientation of the speech at the opening ceremony of the Financial Street Forum Annual Conference on capital market reform is clear, but the implementation path focuses on gradualism, so it has limited impact on the A-share market in the short term. The stock index is expected to fluctuate mainly under the game between policy利好 expectations and the willingness of profitable funds to take profits [5]. Bond Market - The central bank's resumption of Treasury bond trading operations has a strong signal meaning, which consolidates the market bottom and is conducive to the improvement of expectations. The bond market is expected to have a callback in the short term, but there is upward momentum in the fourth quarter [6]. Shipping - The container shipping to Europe route futures are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, and geopolitical factors provide support at the bottom. Trend traders are advised to wait and see, and arbitrage traders can pay attention to the spread fluctuations between near and far contracts [10]. Commodities Precious Metals - Although in the medium and long term, central bank gold purchases and the growth of investment demand will continue to push up the price center of precious metals, they are currently in an adjustment stage. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips in the medium term, and continue to hold the bottom position of previous long positions cautiously [14]. Base Metals - Copper prices are expected to maintain a high - level shock consolidation. Speculators can enter the market to go long on dips near 86000±500. Downstream enterprises can adopt a combination strategy of "selling put options + buying futures on dips" [16]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be strong, while alumina is expected to be weak, and casting aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate strongly. Zinc is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Nickel and stainless steel are expected to fluctuate strongly. Tin is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is recommended to go long. Lithium carbonate is expected to be supported by demand. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to fluctuate widely. Lead is expected to fluctuate mainly, and it is recommended to sell both call and put options to earn option premiums [16][18][20][22][23][24][26][27] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and face downward pressure in the medium and long term. LPG is expected to fluctuate. PTA - PX is expected to decline slightly with oil prices. MEG is expected to fluctuate widely following the macro - mood. Methanol's 01 contract pressure increases. PP and PE are expected to maintain a wide - range shock pattern. Pure benzene and styrene are expected to be affected by macro - trends and oil prices. Fuel oil's cracking upside is limited. Low - sulfur fuel oil's upward drive is limited. Asphalt is waiting for short - selling opportunities. Urea is expected to face pressure after the rebound. Glass, soda ash, and caustic soda's production and sales have improved [34][36][39][41][45][48][49][50][51][53] Building Materials and Paper - Soda ash is expected to be limited in upward space due to high - level supply and cost support. Glass is expected to continue to observe the sustainability of improved production and sales. Caustic soda is expected to be affected by short - term maintenance and long - term production pressure. Pulp and offset paper are expected to be affected by paper mill price increases and macro - mood. Logs are expected to have limited downward space in the short term [53][54][55][56][57] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomics and Financial Futures - **Market Information**: The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal emphasizes key core technology research, the "AI +" action, and boosting consumption. The trade situation eases, and the gold ETF has the largest single - day reduction in six months. The "small non - farm" ADP releases weekly employment data, and Trump may influence the Fed's decision - making. The US and Japan and South Korea have relevant cooperation agreements [1][3][5] - **Market Review**: The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose, and the stock index opened lower and fluctuated. The trading volume of the two markets decreased, and the futures index had different volume and price performances [3][5] Bond Market - **Market Review**: Bond futures opened higher and closed up, and the end - of - month liquidity was tight [6] - **Core Logic**: The central bank's resumption of Treasury bond trading operations led to a sharp decline in spot bond yields, and bond futures made up for the increase. The market is expected to have a callback in the short term but upward momentum in the fourth quarter [6] Shipping - **Market Review**: The container shipping to Europe route futures traded lightly and fluctuated narrowly, and investors focused on geopolitical situations [7] - **Information Sorting**: There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the reduced expectation of Red Sea resumption and the resilience of the Chinese economy. Negative factors include uncertain macro - demand and the strengthening of the RMB exchange rate [8][9] Commodities Precious Metals - **Market Review**: Precious metal prices continued to adjust, showing a V - shaped trend during the day [12] - **Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings**: The market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates, and the holdings of gold and silver ETFs and inventories have changed [13] - **This Week's Focus**: Pay attention to US economic data and central bank interest rate meetings [14] Base Metals - **Copper** - **Market Review**: Copper prices in different markets had different performances, and the basis and cross - border ratio changed [15] - **Industry Information**: Copper inventories in different exchanges changed, and the copper consumption in the real estate industry declined [15][16] - **Core Logic**: Spot prices and premiums weakened, and the trading volume was light. Copper prices are expected to maintain a high - level shock [16] - **Aluminum and Its Industry Chain** - **Market Review**: Aluminum, alumina, and casting aluminum alloy prices had different changes [17] - **Core Logic**: Aluminum prices are expected to be strong due to positive macro - factors and overseas supply disturbances. Alumina is expected to be weak due to over - supply, and casting aluminum alloy is expected to follow aluminum prices [17][18][19] - **Zinc** - **Market Review**: Zinc prices fluctuated at a high level [19] - **Core Logic**: The external market is supported by low inventories, and the domestic market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Zinc prices are expected to maintain a high - level shock [20] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel** - **Market Review**: Nickel and stainless steel prices declined [20] - **Market Analysis**: They were affected by the overall weakness of the metal market, and the cost support of nickel iron loosened. Stainless steel may face production cuts [20][21][22] - **Tin** - **Market Review**: Tin prices fluctuated strongly [22] - **Core Logic**: The supply is weaker than demand, and tin prices are expected to be bullish [22] - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Market Review**: Lithium carbonate futures prices declined slightly, and the trading volume and open interest increased [23] - **Industry Performance**: The spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain was active, and prices rose [23] - **Core Logic**: The demand is good, and the price is expected to be supported [23][24] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon futures prices declined slightly, and the trading volume and open interest changed [24][25] - **Industry Performance**: The spot market of the industrial silicon industry chain was average, and the photovoltaic industry was stable [25][26] - **Core Logic**: Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly, and polysilicon's fundamentals are weak [24][26] - **Lead** - **Market Review**: Lead prices fluctuated and declined [26] - **Industry Performance**: Lead battery enterprises plan to cut production [27] - **Core Logic**: Lead prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term [27] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil** - **Market Review**: Crude oil prices declined significantly [33] - **Market Dynamics**: API data shows changes in US oil inventories, and there are statements from relevant companies and countries [33] - **Core Logic**: Oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and face downward pressure in the medium and long term [34] - **LPG** - **Market Review**: LPG prices fluctuated [34] - **Spot Feedback**: The spot price and inventory of LPG changed [34] - **Core Logic**: LPG is expected to fluctuate in the short term [36] - **PTA - PX** - **Fundamental Situation**: PX and PTA's supply, inventory, and efficiency have changed, and the polyester demand is stable [37][38] - **Core Logic**: PTA is expected to decline slightly with oil prices, and the processing fee needs to be repaired [37][38][39] - **MEG - Bottle Chips** - **Inventory and Devices**: MEG's inventory and device operation status changed [39] - **Fundamental Situation**: MEG's supply, demand, and efficiency have changed, and the polyester demand is stable [39][40] - **Core Logic**: MEG is expected to fluctuate widely following the macro - mood, and the downward space is limited [40][41] - **Methanol** - **Market Dynamics**: Methanol 01 contract price and basis changed [41] - **Inventory**: Methanol port inventory changed [41] - **Core Logic**: Methanol's 01 contract pressure increases [41][42][43] - **PP** - **Market Dynamics**: PP prices declined [43] - **Fundamental Situation**: PP's supply, demand, and inventory have changed, and it is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [44][45] - **Core Logic**: PP is expected to maintain a wide - range shock pattern [44][45] - **PE** - **Market Dynamics**: PE prices declined [46] - **Fundamental Situation**: PE's supply, demand, and inventory have changed, and it is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [47][48] - **Core Logic**: PE is expected to maintain a wide - range shock pattern [47][48] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Review**: Pure benzene and styrene prices declined [48] - **Inventory Situation**: Pure benzene and styrene port and factory inventories changed [48] - **Core Logic**: Pure benzene is expected to be weak, and styrene's upward drive is limited [49] - **Fuel Oil** - **Market Review**: Fuel oil prices closed at a certain level [49] - **Industry Performance**: Fuel oil's supply, demand, and inventory have changed [49] - **Core Logic**: Fuel oil's cracking upside is limited [49] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil** - **Market Review**: Low - sulfur fuel oil prices closed at a certain level [50] - **Industry Performance**: Low - sulfur fuel oil's supply, demand, and inventory have changed [50] - **Core Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil's upward drive is limited [50] - **Asphalt** - **Market Review**: Asphalt prices closed at a certain level [50] - **Fundamental Situation**: Asphalt's supply, demand, and inventory have changed [50][51] - **Core Logic**: Asphalt is waiting for short - selling opportunities [51] - **Urea** - **Market Dynamics**: Urea prices closed at a certain level [51] - **Spot Feedback**: Urea's spot price and inventory changed [51] - **Core Logic**: Urea is expected to face pressure after the rebound [52][53] Building Materials and Paper - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda** - **Soda Ash** - **Market Dynamics**: Soda ash price declined slightly [53] - **Fundamental Information**: Soda ash inventory changed [53] - **Core Logic**: Soda ash is expected to be limited in upward space [53] - **Glass** - **Market Dynamics**: Glass price rose [54] - **Fundamental Information**: Glass inventory increased [54] - **Core Logic**: Observe the sustainability of glass's improved production and sales [54] - **Caustic Soda** - **Market Dynamics**: Caustic soda price declined slightly [55] - **Fundamental Information**: Caustic soda inventory decreased [55] - **Core Logic**: Caustic soda is affected by short - term maintenance and long - term production pressure [55][56] - **Pulp and Offset Paper** - **Market Review**: Pulp and offset paper prices fluctuated [56] - **Spot Market**: Pulp and offset paper's spot price and inventory changed [56] - **Core Logic**: Pulp and offset paper are affected by paper mill price increases and macro - mood [56] - **Logs** - **Market**: Log prices and inventory changed [57] - **Core Contradiction**: Logs are undervalued, and there is a possibility of price repair [57] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Consider short - term short - selling and long - term short - selling strategies [57][58] - **Propylene** - **Market Dynamics**: Propylene prices declined [58] - **Core Logic**: Propylene is expected to fluctuate [58]

Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Soybean No.1 Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: October 29, 2025 - Analyst: Bian Shuyang (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0012647) - Research Assistant: Kang Quangui (Qualification Certificate No.: F03148699) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - New - season soybean listing is hindered by rainfall in the southern产区, leading to a supply shortage of high - protein edible soybeans, which supports the price to rise seasonally. Meanwhile, restrained selling willingness at the grass - roots level and rigid bidirectional grain return acquisitions ease price pressure. Strong acquisition willingness in the spot market and the limited market scale lead to a fundamental shift [3]. - The selling pressure of soybeans is gradually decreasing, and the downstream has a strong willingness to acquire high - quality soybeans. The uninitiated state - reserve acquisition restricts price decline, and if it starts and purchases at a reasonable price, it may further strengthen the price [3]. - The southern产区's listing progress is gradually recovering. The resumption of US soybean imports after the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations (with uncertain time) and the possible decline in acquisition intensity after the execution of grain return orders are negative factors for the market [6]. Summary by Related Content Price Forecast - The price range forecast for the Soybean No.1 contract 11 in the current month is 3900 - 4100, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.02% and a historical percentile of 25.1% [2] Risk Strategies | Behavior Orientation | Scenario Analysis | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio | Suggested Entry Range | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Inventory Management | Planting subjects have a large demand for selling new soybeans harvested in autumn, but there is significant short - term selling pressure, which weighs on prices | Long | Take advantage of the futures price rebound to appropriately lock in planting profits and short - sell | A2601 | Short | 30% | Above 4100 | | Inventory Management | During the concentrated listing period, the bargaining power of sellers weakens | Long | Sell call options to increase the grain selling price | A2511 - C - 4050 | Sell | 30% | 30 - 50 (Hold) | | Procurement Management | Concerned about rising raw material prices and increased procurement costs | Short | Mainly wait to purchase spot goods in the medium term and focus on long - term procurement management | A2603, A2605 | Long | - | Wait for the price to bottom out in the fourth quarter | [2] Spot Price and Basis - On October 28, 2025, the spot prices of domestic third - grade soybeans in Harbin, Nenjiang, Jiamusi, and Changchun were 3900, 3860, 3940, and 3970 respectively, with corresponding basis values of - 215, - 217, - 137, and - 107 [4] Futures Closing Price | Contract | October 27, 2025 | October 28, 2025 | Daily Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean No.1 11 | 4054 | 4100 | 46 | 1.13% | | Soybean No.1 01 | 4077 | 4115 | 38 | 0.93% | | Soybean No.1 03 | 4085 | 4123 | 38 | 0.93% | | Soybean No.1 05 | 4121 | 4155 | 34 | 0.83% | | Soybean No.1 07 | 4117 | 4155 | 38 | 0.92% | | Soybean No.1 09 | 4121 | 4158 | 37 | 0.90% | [4][7]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the South China Futures Corn & Starch Industry Daily, dated October 29, 2025, written by Dai Hongxu and research assistant Kang Quangui [1] Group 2: Core Views - The national autumn grain harvest in major producing areas is over 85%. The corn market harvest is nearing completion, but selling pressure remains high, pressuring prices. Futures prices are in a post - bottoming - out and retracement phase, while spot prices are in a post - stop - falling and stabilizing and fluctuating process [2] - On Tuesday, the corn futures market showed a narrow - range and slightly upward trend, supported by the rise in the outer market and the strength of soybeans. The main 01 contract rose 0.28% to close at 2123 yuan, with decreased trading volume and a slight increase in open interest. The corn starch futures market was weak, with the main 01 contract closing at 2424 yuan [2] Group 3: Market Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - State reserve purchase points in the Northeast region are supporting prices, limiting downward movement [6] - The shortage of high - quality corn in North China will become more apparent over time, supporting the expectation of stronger long - term prices [6] - After the peak of harvest and selling pressure, it will become more dispersed, and price pressure is expected to gradually ease [6] Bearish Factors - The pig industry is in the process of capacity regulation, which may affect long - term corn feed demand. However, the high inventory in the fourth quarter and the current entry of second - fattening pigs support the feed demand at a relatively good level [3] - Short - term supply pressure remains high, and prices are consolidating at a low level [3] Group 4: Price Forecast - The monthly price forecast for corn is in the range of 2050 - 2200 yuan, with a current volatility of 8.75% and a volatility percentile of 23.6%. The monthly price forecast for starch is in the range of 2350 - 2550 yuan, with a current volatility of 10.40% and a volatility percentile of 4.92% [3] Group 5: Price and Basis Data Spot Price and Basis - For corn, the price at Jinzhou Port is 2140 yuan (down 10 yuan), at Shekou Port is 2270 yuan (down 20 yuan), and in Harbin is 2010 yuan (unchanged). The Jinzhou Port main - continuous basis is 17 yuan (down 21 yuan) [3] - For corn starch, the price in Shandong is 2750 yuan (down 10 yuan), in Jilin is 2550 yuan (unchanged), and in Heilongjiang is 2460 yuan (unchanged). The Shandong main - continuous basis is 326 yuan (down 9 yuan) [3] Futures Price - From October 27 to 28, 2025, corn futures contracts 11, 01, 03, 05, 07 showed price increases, with increases ranging from 0.49% - 0.59%. Corn starch futures contracts 11, 01, 03, 05, 07, 09 showed price decreases, with decreases ranging from 0.04% - 0.25%. The wheat average price increased by 0.04% [4][7] Group 6: International Market Data - For US corn - related prices, the CBOT corn main - continuous contract price is 431.75, up 3.75 (0.88%); the COBT soybean main - continuous contract price is 1093.5, up 10 (0.92%); the CBOT wheat main - continuous contract price is 530.25, up 4.25 (0.81%). The US Gulf完税 price is 2141.89, up 13.84 (0.65%), with an import profit of 148.11; the US West完税 price is 2019.92, up 14.03 (0.7%), with an import profit of 270.08 [34]

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - Short - term, weak market conditions suppress the upward momentum of the oil market, and the short - term market will run weakly. Wait for the final US energy policy in November to see if it can boost the oil market and further news about Indonesia's B50 plan. Strategy: stay on the sidelines. There may be a bottom - fishing opportunity for palm oil after it stabilizes [1][2]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestion 1.1 Core Contradiction - Palm oil: In October, Malaysian palm oil production increased, breaking the previous expectation of an early entry into the production - reduction season, with a production increase of over 10%. In Indonesia, the B50 plan faces uncertainties, and the future demand for palm oil is in doubt. However, due to the transfer of plantation ownership, production may be limited, and the B40 plan at the end of the year supports the price [1]. - Soybean oil: The US biodiesel policy is unclear. The US government shutdown has disrupted the acquisition of key agricultural data. The relatively optimistic progress of Sino - US trade talks boosts US soybeans, making soybean oil relatively resistant to decline [1]. - Domestic market: The overall supply of the three major domestic oils is sufficient and under short - term pressure. After the Sino - US and Sino - Canadian relations ease, the import of oilseeds may increase, alleviating supply concerns [2]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Suggestion - Trend judgment: Short - term weak adjustment, medium - term wide - range oscillation. - Price range: P2601 oscillates between [8800 - 9700], Y2601 between [8000 - 8500], and OI between [9500 - 10300]. - Technical analysis: Stay on the sidelines for single - side trading. - Basis strategy: Consider using accumulated options to reduce basis pricing risks. - Spread strategy: For P1 - 5, consider a reverse spread strategy. - Hedging and arbitrage strategy: The spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil widens, and the spread between soybean oil and palm oil narrows [23]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Suggestion - Price range prediction: Soybean oil: 8000 - 8700; rapeseed oil: 9500 - 10300; palm oil: 8800 - 9700. - Hedging strategy: Traders with high oil inventories can short soybean oil futures; refiners with low inventories can buy soybean oil futures; oil mills worried about excessive imports can short soybean oil futures [24]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - Palm oil: Futures prices of different contracts declined, and the basis of Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil was - 240 yuan/ton. - Soybean oil: Futures prices of different contracts mostly rose, and the basis of Shandong first - grade soybean oil was 116 yuan/ton. - Rapeseed oil: Futures prices of different contracts declined, and the basis of East China rapeseed oil was 302 yuan/ton [25][26][27]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: Three major Indonesian palm oil producers have reduced fertilizer use and maintenance, which may lower future production. A plantation's monthly fresh fruit bunch production has dropped significantly [30]. - Bearish information: On October 24, the commercial inventory of the three major domestic oils reached 261 million tons, at a high level in recent years. Sino - US trade consultations made initial progress. Multiple mining associations in Indonesia are requesting the cancellation of the B50 plan. Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased slightly in August, and production is expected to increase by 10% in 2025 [31]. - Spot trading information: The trading volume of palm oil and soybean oil declined, and rapeseed oil had almost no trading [32]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Domestic weekly inventory data, Malaysian palm oil high - frequency production and export data, progress of the US small refinery exemption re - allocation decision, progress of Sino - US trade negotiations, and US government information and USDA data [40]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend: This week, there was more bearish information in the oil market, and the market continued to weaken. However, due to uncertainties such as the US energy policy and the approaching production - reduction season, the downward space is limited [39]. - Capital flow: In palm oil, the long and short positions are in a stalemate; in soybean oil, long positions increased significantly; in rapeseed oil, long positions increased slightly [39]. - Basis structure: The basis of the main oil contracts continued to bottom out, and the palm oil basis turned negative. - Spread structure: The oil market shows a Back structure, which has become shallower this week. The 1 - 5 spread has slightly recovered, and the concern about the far - month contracts has weakened [41]. - Price spread structure: This week, the spread between soybean oil and palm oil strengthened, the spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil weakened slightly, and the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil changed little [49]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - This week, the POGO and BOHO spreads both declined, and the overall cost of bio - fuel production decreased slightly. The cost of palm - based biodiesel decreased to a limited extent, while the cost of US soybean - based biodiesel remained low [56]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - China is a net importer of palm oil. After a slight improvement in cost prices, they weakened again, and the sentiment of domestic buyers is expected to remain stable [58]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 Origin Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - In September, the decline in Malaysian palm oil production was less than expected, and the inventory exceeded expectations. In October, production increased month - on - month, breaking the previous expectation of an early entry into the production - reduction season. Pay attention to the inventory - reduction progress in the origin [61]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Projection - Palm oil: With weak demand and high costs, traders' purchasing willingness is low. During the production - reduction season at the end of the year, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is relatively limited. - Soybean oil: The arrival of soybeans from October to November is high, and the supply in the fourth quarter will be sufficient, but the supply pressure may weaken in December. - Rapeseed oil: The current domestic inventory is high, and demand is limited. However, the inventory may decrease in the fourth quarter, and there may be a supply shortage from the end of the year to the first quarter of next year if Sino - Canadian relations do not improve [63]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Projection - In the short term, the inventory pressure of the three major oils is high, and demand is weak. After the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the market boost is limited, and overall terminal demand will remain weak [65].