Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The expectation of tight supply of high - protein edible soybeans supports the anti - seasonal price increase. However, with the progress of Sino - US negotiations to resume agricultural product trade, the domestic soybean market is expected to face short - term pressure. The market also needs to pay attention to whether the selling pressure emerges and the behavior changes caused by sentiment fermentation [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price Prediction and Risk Strategy - **Price Range Prediction**: The predicted monthly price range for the bean one 11 - contract is 3900 - 4100, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.37% and a historical percentile of 26.0% [2]. - **Risk Strategies**: - **Inventory Management for Sellers**: For those with long positions due to large new - bean selling pressure in autumn or weakened bargaining power during the concentrated listing period, strategies include shorting bean one futures (A2601) with a 30% hedging ratio when the price is above 4100, and selling call options (A2511 - C - 4050) with a 30% ratio at 30 - 50 (holding) to increase the selling price [2]. - **Procurement Management for Buyers**: For those worried about rising raw - material prices, the strategy is to mainly wait to purchase spot in the medium term and focus on long - term procurement management. Long positions in A2603 and A2605 are considered after the price bottoms out in the fourth quarter [2]. Core Contradictions and Market Influences - **Likely Positive Factors**: The decrease in the national high - protein soybean yield supports market sentiment, and the uninitiated state - reserve purchase restricts price decline. But the impact of yield reduction is gradually weakening [3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The progress of Sino - US trade negotiations to resume agricultural product trade is negative for the domestic soybean market. Also, as repayment orders are executed, the rigid demand at the procurement end may decline, and there is still a bottleneck in the sales of medium - and low - protein soybeans [3]. Market Data - **Spot Price and Basis**: On October 30, 2025, the spot prices of domestic third - grade soybeans in Harbin, Nenjiang, Jiamusi, and Changchun were 3900, 3860, 3940, and 3970 respectively, with corresponding basis values of - 203, - 253, - 173, and - 143 [3]. - **Futures Closing Price**: On October 30, 2025, compared with the previous day, the closing prices of bean one contracts 11, 01, 03, 05, 07, and 09 decreased by - 0.29%, - 0.24%, - 0.36%, - 0.48%, - 0.41%, and - 0.50% respectively [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - From an economic data perspective, the GDP growth rate in the third quarter declined as expected, but the pressure to achieve the annual target is controllable. The GDP deflator is showing a recovery trend, and its sustainability is worth attention. In September, the economy showed a structural differentiation feature of strong production and weak domestic demand, with both consumption and investment growth rates being weak, highlighting the necessity of policy support. Currently, fiscal policy has clearly taken effect, and the subsequent rhythm of domestic demand repair is crucial. After the release of the communiqué of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, the stock market responded positively. Combining historical patterns, the stock index may perform [1]. - Affected by the end of the China - US negotiations, the results of the China - US summit may fall short of market expectations. The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB quickly rose around 1 o'clock. At the same time, the Bank of Japan's interest - rate meeting maintained the interest rate unchanged as expected, and the weakening of the yen pushed the US dollar index relatively stronger, further dragging down the RMB against the US dollar exchange rate. In the future, attention should be paid to the US employment and inflation situation under the background of the government shutdown, as well as the enterprise's willingness to settle foreign exchange [2]. - The Fed's October interest - rate decision was implemented, with a 25bp cut as expected and the end of balance - sheet reduction in December announced. However, Powell's subsequent speech was hawkish, saying that a December interest - rate cut was not a certainty, which cooled the interest - rate cut expectation. The market repriced the Fed's subsequent interest - rate cut path. Affected by this, the A - share market was under pressure yesterday, and the stock index opened lower and closed down. However, it is believed that the market will quickly digest the change in the interest - rate cut expectation in the short term, and the stock index is expected to strengthen again after fully digesting the interest - rate cut expectation difference [5]. - The container shipping index (European line) futures are expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term. The policy benefits from China and the US and the weakness of the spot market are in a tug - of - war, and the game in the range of 1800 - 1900 points intensifies [10]. - Although in the medium - to - long - term dimension, central bank gold purchases and the growth of investment demand (monetary easing prospects and periodic safe - haven trading) will still push up the price center of precious metals, in the short term, it has entered an adjustment stage. Attention should be paid to the opportunity to make up for long positions at a low level in the medium term, and the previous long - position bottom positions should continue to be held cautiously [14]. - After the release of the Fed's interest - rate decision, the copper market experienced a decline in both volume and price. At this time, the spot premium showed a trend of bottoming out and rebounding, but the increase was limited. It is believed that in the short term, both the long and short factors at the macro level have been digested. If the spot market trading volume does not increase, the futures price will still maintain a high - level shock [16]. - For aluminum, the domestic fundamentals remain stable, and there are disturbances on the overseas supply side. Overall, after the tariff negotiation, the night - session price of Shanghai aluminum rose, but with the successive implementation of macro events, the market is temporarily in a news vacuum, waiting for the next driver, and Shanghai aluminum will maintain a high - level shock in the short term. For alumina, it is still in an oversupply situation, and it is mainly bearish before large - scale production cuts occur, but the downward space is limited at the current price. For cast aluminum alloy, it has a strong follow - up to Shanghai aluminum, and it is recommended to pay attention to the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum [18][19]. - For zinc, the interest - rate cut expectation has weakened. Fundamentally, the phenomenon of smelters competing for mines is serious, and the willingness of smelters to reduce or stop production in November has increased. Assuming stable demand, there is a possibility of inventory reduction. It is expected to be relatively strong and volatile in November [20]. - For nickel and stainless steel, the intraday trading continued to be volatile, and the current long - short game sentiment is relatively strong. The macro - level Fed interest - rate cut and the friendly talks between China and the US in Busan have brought major policy benefits, but the downward shift of the cost support at the fundamental level still suppresses the upward space [21]. - For tin, the uncertainty of the interest - rate cut has increased, and it is weakly volatile. Technically, the pressure level of 290,000 is relatively stable. Fundamentally, the supply is weaker than the demand. In the short term, it is still bullish, and the support is predicted to be around 276,000 [22]. - For lead, it is in a narrow - range shock. The long - term trend is bullish, and the medium - to - short - term wave - like upward trend is stable. High - selling and low - buying strategies can be adopted [22]. - For steel, the price is expected to rebound slightly. Although there is no substantial improvement in the downstream consumption end, there is an expectation of crude steel production reduction, and the steel price will maintain a shock in the future [23]. - For iron ore, the current market presents a pattern of loose supply and demand, and the price is under obvious pressure. In the context of abundant supply, high inventory, and limited demand boost, if steel mills do not achieve large - scale and substantial production cuts, the industrial chain contradictions are difficult to ease, and the iron ore price is expected to continue to be under pressure after the macro events are implemented [24]. - For coking coal and coke, recently, downstream coking plants and steel mills have concentrated on replenishing their inventories, and the coking coal inventory structure has improved. The third round of price increases has started, and the coke price may be relatively strong in the short term. If the coking coal supply continues to tighten in the fourth quarter, and the winter - storage demand is released in mid - to - late November, the overall valuation center of the black market is expected to move up [26][27]. - For ferroalloys, they are supported by the coking coal price, but the fundamentals are not strong enough to support the upward movement, and the upward space is limited [28]. - For crude oil, the price is under pressure. In the short term, the API data shows a significant reduction in US crude oil, gasoline, and diesel inventories, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting and the China - US summit may boost sentiment, so the oil price may fluctuate. But in the medium - to - long - term, the pressure of oversupply is difficult to change, and it is still likely to decline after a rebound [32]. - For LPG, after the China - US summit, the domestic and foreign prices have fallen, and the previous excessive expectations have been slightly revised, but the phased easing of China - US relations is still beneficial. Fundamentally, the port inventory has increased this week, and the chemical demand remains stable. The domestic LPG market still shows a relatively strong shock pattern [34]. - For PTA - PX, the macro - optimistic sentiment has cooled down, and the price has declined slightly. In the short term, it is mainly a short - term strong shock driven by sentiment, and the PTA processing fee has expanded. In the long - term, the industrial - structure contradictions are difficult to solve before the implementation of actual production - reduction actions, and the PTA processing fee is still under pressure from supply and demand [37]. - For MEG - bottle chips, the fundamental supply - demand situation of ethylene glycol has improved marginally, but the valuation is still under pressure. In the short term, it is expected to follow the macro - sentiment and fluctuate widely, and the operation idea of shorting at high levels remains unchanged [38]. - For methanol, from the perspective of its own fundamentals, the 01 contract is not optimistic. It is recommended to reduce the short - put position of the 01 contract and sell the 01 call option at the same time [39]. - For PP, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand continues to put pressure on it, resulting in a low - level shock situation. Due to the limited new drivers at present, the shock pattern is expected to continue [41]. - For PE, the weak supply - demand pattern continues. It is in a deadlock of strong supply and weak demand. Affected significantly by cost factors such as crude oil, it generally maintains a wide - range shock pattern [44]. - For pure benzene and styrene, after the rise, the price has fallen. Pure benzene is expected to be weak, and for styrene, the de - stocking pressure is large. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and consider shorting the processing spread at a high level between varieties after the macro situation is clear [46]. - For fuel oil, the high - sulfur fuel oil is in a pattern of strong expectation and weak reality, and it is not advisable to be overly optimistic about the later cracking. Attention can be paid to the opportunity to expand the spread between LU and FU recently. The low - sulfur fuel oil has a low valuation and there is an expectation of repair, and attention can also be paid to the opportunity to expand the spread between LU and FU [46][47]. - For asphalt, the short - term peak season has no super - expected performance. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term or try to short after the futures price reaches the pressure level [49]. - For glass, soda ash, and caustic soda, for soda ash, without production reduction, the valuation has no upward elasticity, and the upper - and - middle - stream inventory remains high, limiting the price, but there is cost support below. For glass, the spot sales have improved slightly after the price cut, and the game may continue until near the delivery. For caustic soda, the production is gradually recovering, the market pressure is increasing, and the high profit restricts the price increase [49][50][51][52]. - For pulp and offset paper, the pulp price is restricted by the relatively high port inventory, and it still needs to wait for the traditional peak season to provide support in the short term. For offset paper, the futures price shows a slightly upward shock trend, and attention can be paid to the de - stocking situation [53]. - For logs, the market is in a low - volatility state without obvious drivers, and it is expected to continue. It is recommended to sell the 750 put option of the 01 contract, and the grid strategy can be re - configured [55]. - For propylene, the crude oil end is oscillating at the 65 mark, and the cost end is relatively strong. But the overall supply situation of propylene remains loose, the spot market continues to weaken, and the peak season of PP terminal demand is not prosperous [56]. - For live pigs, the position game intensifies, and the futures price has declined [58]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Market news includes the China - US economic and trade teams reaching three - aspect achievement consensuses, possible selection of the Fed chairman candidate before Christmas, the European Central Bank maintaining the deposit rate at 2%, and the Bank of Japan maintaining the interest rate unchanged [1]. - The GDP growth rate in the third quarter declined as expected, and the GDP deflator is showing a recovery trend. In September, the economy had a structural differentiation of strong production and weak domestic demand. Fiscal policy has taken effect, and the subsequent rhythm of domestic demand repair is crucial. The stock market responded positively after the plenary - session communiqué, and the stock index may perform. The China - US economic and trade negotiation results are beneficial to export enterprises in the long - term. Overseas, the Fed's interest - rate cut and Powell's hawkish speech have affected the market's interest - rate cut expectation [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The previous trading day, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down, and the central parity rate was depreciated. Affected by the China - US negotiation and the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision, the RMB against the US dollar exchange rate was under pressure. In the future, attention should be paid to the US employment and inflation situation and the enterprise's willingness to settle foreign exchange. There is a certain appreciation power for the RMB against the US dollar exchange rate with the seasonal effect [2]. - Short - term strategy suggestions: export enterprises can lock in forward exchange settlement in batches at around 7.13, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign - exchange purchase strategy at the 7.09 mark [3]. Stock Index - The previous trading day, the stock index closed down collectively, and the trading volume in the two markets increased. The Fed's interest - rate decision and Powell's speech affected the A - share market. Although the stock index fell, it is expected to strengthen again after digesting the interest - rate cut expectation difference in the short term [4][5]. Treasury Bond - The previous trading day, T and TL closed up in a shock, TF was flat, and TS fell slightly. The capital supply became looser. The China - US negotiation results are beneficial to risk assets, and the short - term upward space of treasury bonds may be limited [6]. Container Shipping (European Line) - The previous trading day, the main contract of the container shipping index (European line) futures rose first and then fell, and the far - month contracts showed differentiation. The market has both positive and negative factors. The positive factors include the phased easing of China - US trade friction, geopolitical risks supporting freight rates, and the basis for price support in the peak season. The negative factors include the discount on spot price increases, long - term over - capacity pressure, and insufficient European economic resilience [7][9]. - The short - term is expected to maintain a high - level shock, and the game in the 1800 - 1900 point range intensifies. Trend traders can wait and see, and arbitrage traders can pay attention to the spread between EC2512 and EC2602 [10]. Commodities Precious Metals (Gold & Silver) - The previous trading day, precious metals prices rebounded significantly, affected by the China - US summit and the news about the Fed chairman candidate. The interest - rate cut expectation has slightly recovered. The long - term fund positions and inventory have changed. In the short term, it has entered an adjustment stage, and attention should be paid to the opportunity to make up for long positions at a low level in the medium term [12][13]. Copper - The previous trading day, copper prices in different markets fell. The LME plans to formulate permanent rules to restrict members with large positions in near - month contracts. In the short term, if the spot market trading volume does not increase, the futures price will maintain a high - level shock. Corresponding trading strategies are provided for different market participants [14][16]. Aluminum Industry Chain - For aluminum, after the China - US summit, relevant export control measures were suspended. The domestic fundamentals are stable, and there are overseas supply disturbances. It will maintain a high - level shock in the short term. For alumina, it is in an oversupply situation, and it is mainly bearish before large - scale production cuts, but the downward space is limited at the current price. For cast aluminum alloy, it has a strong follow - up to Shanghai aluminum, and attention can be paid to the price difference [18][19]. Zinc - The previous trading day, zinc prices opened low and fluctuated due to the weakening of the interest - rate cut expectation. Fundamentally, the smelters' willingness to reduce or stop production in November has increased. Assuming stable demand, there is a possibility of inventory reduction. It is expected to be relatively strong and volatile in November [20]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The previous trading day, the prices of nickel and stainless steel futures fell slightly. The intraday trading continued to be volatile, with strong long - short game sentiment. The macro - level has policy benefits, but the cost support at the fundamental level is weakening. The stainless steel market is in the off - season, and the downstream demand is general [20][21]. Tin - The previous trading day, tin prices were weakly volatile, mainly affected by the weakening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. Fundamentally, the supply is weaker than the demand. In the short term, it is still bullish, and the support is predicted to be around 276,000 [22]. Lead - The previous trading day, lead prices were in a narrow - range shock. The supply is tight in the short term, and the downstream acceptance of high prices is low. It is expected to be in a narrow - range shock around 17,200 - 17,500 in the short term, and the low inventory supports the price [22]. Black Metals Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil - The previous trading day, due to the China - US summit, the prices of finished steel products rose first and then fell. Affected by coal mine safety inspections and Mongolian political disturbances, coking coal prices rose rapidly, driving finished steel products to rebound slightly, but the upward momentum was weak. The fundamentals of finished steel products this week are neutral, and the production of rebar and hot - rolled coil has different changes. It is expected that the steel price will rebound slightly due to environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan [23]. Iron Ore - The price of iron ore rose first and then fell. The current market has a pattern of loose supply and demand, with high global shipments, rapid accumulation of port inventory, and limited reduction in iron - water production. The terminal demand is differentiated, and the macro - policy has limited support for iron ore demand. It is expected to continue to be under pressure [24]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, they were in a high - level shock. The downstream has concentrated on replenishing inventories, and the coking coal inventory structure has improved. The third round of price increases has started, and the coke price may be relatively strong in the short term. If the coking coal supply continues to tighten in the fourth quarter, the overall valuation center of the black market is expected to move

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's copper industry has achieved remarkable results in production, consumption, corporate strength, technological innovation, and economic benefits during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period. The "15th Five - Year Plan" aims to build a copper industry powerhouse in two steps, focusing on aspects such as independent innovation, resource security, green and low - carbon development, and digitalization [1][2][5] - The global copper market is facing challenges such as high copper prices suppressing demand, accelerated copper - aluminum substitution, and pressure on smelting profits. However, there are also opportunities in new energy vehicles and artificial intelligence driving demand growth. The market will be in a long - term tight balance, requiring industry collaboration, technological innovation, and ecological construction to address challenges [11][18][19] Summary by Relevant Catalogs "15th Five - Year Plan" to Fully Realize a Copper Industry Powerhouse "14th Five - Year Plan" Core Development Achievements - **Output and Consumption Scale**: China's copper industry has maintained rapid growth since reform and opening - up. In 2024, refined copper production accounted for nearly 50% of the global total, and consumption accounted for 58%. Per capita copper consumption reached 10 kg, and consumption increased from 1.266 billion tons to nearly 1.5 billion tons from 2020 - 2024. The power sector accounted for 50% of domestic consumption [2][6] - **Enterprise and Resource Status**: Two Chinese enterprises have entered the global top ten in the copper mining field, with Zijin Mining ranking among the top four. Domestic refined copper production capacity is concentrated in provinces such as Jiangxi, Shandong, Guangxi, and Anhui. Significant progress has been made in domestic and overseas resource exploration [6][7] - **Economic Benefits**: During the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, the copper industry's operating income increased from 1.7 trillion yuan to 3 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 14.9%. Profits increased from 45.4 billion yuan to 95.3 billion yuan, accounting for 22% of the non - ferrous metal industry [7] - **Technological Innovation**: China has achieved import substitution for copper tubes, copper plates, and copper foils. Ultra - thin copper foils with a length of over 20,000 meters have been produced, and energy consumption has been continuously optimized [7] "15th Five - Year Plan" Strategic Plan - **Overall Goals**: Build a copper industry powerhouse in two steps. From 2025 - 2030, focus on independent innovation, resource security, green and low - carbon development, and digitalization. From 2030 - 2035, achieve technological self - reliance, resource control, green production, smart factories, global layout, and talent cultivation [5] - **Key Goals**: Promote work in five major areas: scientific and technological research, resource security, green and low - carbon development, smart factory construction, and high - end talent deployment [10] Current Situation of the Copper Mine Industry and Corporate Green Transformation Global and Chinese Copper Mine Industry Patterns - **Global Pattern**: Global copper resources are concentrated in countries such as Chile and Peru. In 2024, global production was 2.298 billion tons, consumption was 2.35 billion tons, and the new energy sector accounted for 27% of consumption [11][12] - **Chinese Situation**: China's copper resource reserves are 41 million tons, accounting for 4.2% of the global total, with a static guarantee period of 24 years. In 2024, production was 1.364 billion tons (49.9% of the global total), and consumption accounted for 58% of the global total, with a high degree of external dependence [11][15] Challenges in the Development of the Copper Industry - **High Copper Prices Suppress Downstream Demand**: After the National Day in 2025, copper prices rose to nearly 89,000 yuan/ton. For every 10,000 - yuan increase in copper prices, the cable industry's cost increases by 12%, and the new energy vehicle procurement cost increases by 8%. In the first half of 2025, domestic copper processing enterprises' orders decreased by 7.3% year - on - year [16] - **Accelerated Copper - Aluminum Substitution**: When the copper - aluminum price ratio exceeds 4, downstream enterprises tend to use aluminum to replace copper. The aluminum industry association has conducted special research on "replacing copper with aluminum" [16] - **Pressure on Smelting Enterprise Profits**: In 2025, copper processing fees were negative, about - 40 US dollars/ton. Domestic smelting enterprises mainly rely on the profits of by - products such as sulfuric acid, gold, and silver to subsidize production [17] Round - Table Discussion: Coexistence of Challenges and Opportunities Mine Copper Supply Shows "Short - Term Growth, Long - Term Bottlenecks" - Global copper demand is growing structurally, driven by new energy vehicles and artificial intelligence. It is predicted that in 2035, the global copper industry demand will reach 42 million tons, with a shortage of 4.5 million tons of mine copper [20] There are Delivery Arbitrage Opportunities When the LME - COMEX Copper Price Difference Reaches a Maximum of 2,500 US Dollars - The Trump administration's tariff policies have changed the global copper trade pattern, widening the LME - COMEX copper price difference. Trade enterprises can profit from cross - market arbitrage, but they also face challenges such as high market access thresholds and policy risks [22] The Low TC/RC is Corely Due to Supply - Demand Mismatch and Insufficient Industry Collaboration - The TC/RC has deteriorated significantly. In 2025, it dropped from 80 US dollars/ton in 2024 to 21.25 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 75%. The core reasons are supply - demand mismatch and insufficient industry collaboration [25] 2025 Global Copper Industry Chain Supply - Demand Pattern and Price Forecast - The US manufacturing reshoring and the Trump administration's tariff policies have affected the copper market. The supply - demand pattern of the copper industry chain is tense, and it is predicted that the copper price will rise to about 12,000 US dollars/ton in 2026 [28][29]

【行情回顾】 周四贵金属价格明显反弹，仍受益于中美领导会晤后的避险买盘以及美财长贝森特表示可能在圣诞节前选出 美联储主席候选人，且不喜欢本次降息的措辞的消息影响。周边美指上涨，10Y美债收益率略有走高，美股调 整，因美联储偏鹰降息影响，其他比特币下跌，原油震荡，南华有色金属指数调整。最终COMEX黄金2512 合约收报4038.3美元/盎司，+0.94%；美白银2512合约收报于48.73美元/盎司， +1.71%。SHFE黄金2512 主力合约 收912.16元/克，+0.82%；SHFE白银2512合约收11253元/千克，+0.54%。其他消息面，欧央行 三连维稳利率2%，称通胀已达标，暂不转向；经济显韧性，但地缘与关税阴云未散，市场押注明年上半年降 息，欧元跌、德债收益率续降。 【降息预期与基金持仓】 降息预期降温略有回暖。据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储12月11日维持利率不变概率25.3%，降息 25个基点的概率为74.7%；美联储1月29日维持利率不变概率16.6%，累计降息25个基点的概率为57.7%，累 计降息50个基点的概率25.6%；美联储3月19日维持利率不变概率11.1%，累计 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the South China Futures Corn & Starch Industry Daily on October 31, 2025, written by Dai Hongxu and research assistant Kang Quangui [1] Group 2: Core Views - New - season corn harvest is nearing completion in October, with grain sales and circulation peaking. After the concentrated listing in October, the bottom of corn prices is emerging, and the current price is in a consolidation phase with limited upward and downward driving forces [2] - Corn prices in major producing areas remained stable yesterday. In the Northeast, state - reserve purchases signaled price support, curbing the selling sentiment of upstream suppliers and weakening the downward price momentum, while downstream buyers were more active. In North China and the Huang - Huai region, prices were also stable. As the low - quality grain affected by precipitation was gradually sold, the price of high - quality corn remained firm. In the sales areas, arrivals increased, but downstream buyers were cautious, mostly purchasing as needed with weak short - term inventory - building intentions, providing limited price support [2] - On Thursday, the corn futures market oscillated weakly. The main 01 contract closed at 2111 yuan, with slightly increased trading volume and open interest, and 63,966 registered warrants. The starch futures market also weakened, with the main 01 contract closing at 2419 yuan [2] Group 3: Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - The first peak of new - season corn listing has passed, and prices are stabilizing [6] - State - reserve purchases in the Northeast have significantly supported prices, limiting price declines [6] - The reduction of high - quality corn in North China will gradually become apparent over time, supporting the expectation of stronger long - term prices [6] Bearish Factors - The pig industry is in the process of capacity regulation, which may affect the long - term feed demand for corn. However, the high inventory in the fourth quarter and the current entry of second - fattening pigs support the feed demand at a relatively good level. Attention should also be paid to whether the news of the wheat directional auction in November will affect corn prices [3] - The supply level remains high in the fourth quarter, and prices are consolidating at a low level [3] - Sino - US negotiations have achieved good progress, and relevant national departments have confirmed that China and the US have reached a consensus on expanding agricultural product trade. Attention should be paid to whether it extends to the corn variety [3] Group 4: Price Forecast and Market Data Price Forecast - The monthly price forecast for corn is in the range of 2050 - 2200 yuan, with a current volatility of 8.82% and a volatility percentile of 23.6%. The monthly price forecast for starch is in the range of 2350 - 2550 yuan, with a current volatility of 9.92% and a volatility percentile of 4.92% [4] Spot Price and Basis - In the corn market, the price at Jinzhou Port is 2130 yuan (down 10 yuan), at Shekou Port is 2250 yuan (unchanged), and in Harbin is 2010 yuan (unchanged). The basis of Jinzhou Port's main - continuous contract is 19 yuan (down 5 yuan). In the corn starch market, the price in Shandong is 2740 yuan (unchanged), in Jilin is 2550 yuan (unchanged), and in Heilongjiang is 2460 yuan (unchanged). The basis of Shandong's main - continuous contract is 321 yuan (up 8 yuan) [4] Futures Price - For corn futures, the 11 - contract price changed from 2101 to 2103 yuan (up 2 yuan, 0.10%), the 01 - contract from 2116 to 2111 yuan (down 5 yuan, - 0.24%), the 03 - contract from 2145 to 2141 yuan (down 4 yuan, - 0.19%), the 05 - contract from 2221 to 2213 yuan (down 8 yuan, - 0.36%), the 07 - contract from 2244 to 2238 yuan (down 6 yuan, - 0.27%), and the 09 - contract remained at 2247 yuan (unchanged). For corn starch futures, the 11 - contract price changed from 2438 to 2431 yuan (down 7 yuan, - 0.29%), the 01 - contract from 2427 to 2419 yuan (down 8 yuan, - 0.33%), the 03 - contract from 2438 to 2429 yuan (down 9 yuan, - 0.37%), the 05 - contract from 2540 to 2530 yuan (down 10 yuan, - 0.39%), the 07 - contract from 2558 to 2548 yuan (down 10 yuan, - 0.39%), and the 09 - contract from 2590 to 2584 yuan (down 6 yuan, - 0.23%). The average wheat price rose from 2500 to 2504 yuan (up 4 yuan, 0.16%) [7] US Corn Market - The price of CBOT corn main - continuous contract was 429.5 (down 5, - 1.15%), COBT soybean main - continuous contract was 1107 (up 13.75, 1.26%), CBOT wheat main - continuous contract was 524.25 (down 9.25, - 1.73%). The duty - paid price at the US Gulf was 2154.54 yuan (up 5.9, 0.27%) with an import profit of 95.46 yuan, and the duty - paid price at the US West Coast was 2032.78 yuan (up 5.91, 0.29%) with an import profit of 217.22 yuan [30]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The Fed's October interest rate decision resulted in a 25bp rate cut and an announcement to end balance sheet reduction in December. However, Powell's subsequent hawkish remarks cooled the rate cut expectations. The market repriced the Fed's future rate cut path, with the expectation of no rate cut in December rising to over 65%. This led to a rise in US Treasury yields and the US dollar index, causing A-shares to face pressure and close lower. The small and medium-cap stock indices, which are more sensitive to interest rates, had larger declines. It is believed that the market will digest the impact of the change in rate cut expectations in the short term. Based on the market performance during previous five-year plans, the impact of the Fourth Plenary Session is expected to last for about two weeks, combined with the results of the China-US economic and trade consultations after the market [5]. Market Review - The stock indices closed lower today, with the large-cap stock indices relatively more resilient. For example, the CSI 300 Index closed down 0.80%. The trading volume of the two markets increased by 1.65647 billion yuan. The stock index futures all declined with increased volume [3]. Important Information - The Fed implemented a combination of measures: continued to cut interest rates by 25 basis points and end balance sheet reduction in December, with two voting members opposing the interest rate decision. The Ministry of Commerce stated that the US will cancel the so-called "fentanyl tariff" of 10% on Chinese goods, suspend the implementation of the 50% penetration rule of export controls announced on September 29 for one year, and suspend the implementation of the 301 investigation measures on China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year. China will properly resolve issues related to TikTok with the US [4]. Futures Market Observation | Index | Main Contract Intraday Change (%) | Trading Volume (10,000 lots) | Trading Volume MoM (10,000 lots) | Open Interest (10,000 lots) | Open Interest MoM (10,000 lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF | -0.69 | 13.7376 | 3.6443 | 27.0734 | 1.2176 | | IH | -0.55 | 6.3949 | 1.8844 | 10.2044 | 0.7069 | | IC | -1.06 | 16.8288 | 3.3521 | 26.0211 | 0.7396 | | IM | -0.91 | 24.8653 | 6.1017 | 36.9079 | 2.0311 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index Change (%) | -0.73 | | Shenzhen Component Index Change (%) | -1.16 | | Ratio of Rising to Falling Stocks | 1.32 | | Total Trading Volume of the Two Markets (100 million yuan) | 2421.677 | | Trading Volume MoM (100 million yuan) | 165.647 | [7]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - The Nanhua Composite Index declined by -0.57% based on the closing prices of adjacent trading days [1][4]. - All sector indices decreased, with the Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index having the largest decline of -1.08% and the Nanhua Precious Metals Index having the smallest decline of -0.2% [1][4]. - Among theme indices, only the Oilseeds and Oils Index rose by 0.37%, while the rest declined. The Coal - Chemical Index had the largest decline of -1.16%, and the Economic Crops Index had the smallest decline of -0.09% [1][4]. - In the single - variety commodity futures indices, the Rapeseed Index had the largest increase of 1.64%, and the Glass Index had the largest decline of -3.19% [1][4]. 2. Contribution and Other Information - Lithium carbonate had a positive contribution of 3.24% [4]. 3. Industry Chain and Variety Performance - In the energy and chemical sector, some varieties' single - variety index daily price changes were as follows: Synthetic nitrogen -1.91%, polyethylene -2.17%, ethylene glycol -1.66%, LPG -0.55%, aromatic hydrocarbons -1.42%, crude oil -0.54%, and refined oil -1.61% [4][11]. - In the black sector, cotton rose by 0.86%, coal had no change (0.00%), and another coal - related item declined by -0.47% [6]. - In the agricultural products sector, soybean oil -0.16%, rapeseed oil -0.24%, rapeseed had an increase of 1.64%, rapeseed meal 1.18%, and live pigs -2.50% [8].

Report Overview - Date: October 30, 2025 - Analyst: Bian Shuyang (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0012647) - Research Assistant: Huang Chaoxian (Futures Practitioner License No.: F03147169) 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The current trading focus of the rubber market leans towards macro - expectations. Factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut, the "15th Five - Year Plan" policies, Sino - US economic and trade consultations, and leader meetings have warmed the macro - atmosphere. The reduction of geopolitical tensions has restored market risk appetite, pushing up macro - sentiment. - The valuation of rubber, especially RU, is not high, and the upstream profit is low. The visible inventory of dry rubber has been decreasing after the previous low price, driving the rubber market to warm up. The recent performance of the rubber market reflects a clear bottom - support range formed by both supply and demand. - The short - term performance of rubber is strong, but further upward drivers are limited. In the short term, it may mainly involve the relative valuation repair of some products. Near - term, attention should be paid to the liquidity risk on the spot side, and in the medium - to - long - term, attention should be paid to changes in macro - sentiment and the increase in supply [3]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 South China's Views 3.1.1 Price Forecast - The price range of the rubber RU main contract in the next two weeks is predicted to be 14,800 - 15,800 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 26.95% and a 3 - year volatility historical percentile of 38.34%. - The price range of the 20 - number rubber NR main contract in the next two weeks is predicted to be 12,000 - 13,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.96% and a 3 - year volatility historical percentile of 68.66% [2]. 3.1.2 Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For those with high inventory and worried about inventory depreciation due to falling rubber prices, strategies include selling 50% of RU2601 futures at 15,700 - 16,000 yuan/ton, buying 35% of RU2601 - P15250 put options below 320 yuan, and selling 25% of RU2601 - C16000 call options above 310 yuan. - **Procurement Management**: For those with low regular inventory and future procurement plans, worried about rising raw material prices, strategies include buying 50% of NR2512 futures at 11,900 - 12,300 yuan/ton, buying 30% of RU2601 - C15500 call options below 400 yuan, and selling 20% of RU2601 - P14500 put options above 160 yuan [2]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - The short - term performance of rubber is strong, but further upward drivers are limited. Near - term, attention should be paid to the liquidity risk on the spot side, and in the medium - to - long - term, attention should be paid to changes in macro - sentiment and the increase in supply [3]. 3.3利多解读 - The US API and EIA crude oil inventories decreased last week, and the cost of oil - chemical products is weakly stable in the short term. - The demand for automotive supporting at home and abroad has been good this year, and China's automobile exports have maintained strong growth. - The "15th Five - Year Plan" has introduced concentrated policies, warming the macro - sentiment. - The demand for winter snow tires is booming, and the downstream tire production is at a good level [4][6]. 3.4利空解读 - The Fed's hawkish attitude and the potential US government shutdown increase macro - uncertainties. - Rising rubber prices will bring pressure on both supply and demand. The downstream trading willingness has weakened, and the import supply of dry rubber will remain relatively loose. - The inventory pressure of downstream tires (especially semi - steel tires) and terminal automobiles still exists [7]. 3.5 Futures Data 3.5.1 Futures Prices - On October 29, 2025, the closing prices of RU01, RU05, and RU09 contracts were 15,625 yuan/ton, 15,705 yuan/ton, and 15,770 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 265 yuan/ton, 280 yuan/ton, and 290 yuan/ton. - The closing prices of NR - continuous, NR - continuous 1, NR - continuous 2, and NR - continuous 3 were 12,720 yuan/ton, 12,730 yuan/ton, and 12,700 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 190 yuan/ton, 205 yuan/ton, and 180 yuan/ton [8]. 3.5.2 Warehouse Receipt Inventory - On October 29, 2025, the RU warehouse receipt inventory was 122,890 tons, an increase of 320 tons from the previous day and a decrease of 4,850 tons from last week. - The NR warehouse receipt inventory was 44,253 tons, a decrease of 201 tons from the previous day and an increase of 1,613 tons from last week [9]. 3.6 Spot Data 3.6.1 Spot Prices - On October 29, 2025, the price of domestic full - latex in Shanghai was 14,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from the previous day and 600 yuan/ton from last week. - The price of Thai RSS3 (CIF) was 18,650 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day and an increase of 150 US dollars/ton from last week [37]. 3.6.2 Spot Spreads - Various spot spreads, such as the spread between full - latex and smoked sheets, full - latex and Vietnamese 3L, etc., are presented in historical data charts [39]. 3.7 Basis Trends - The basis trends between different spot products (such as full - latex, smoked sheets, Vietnamese 3L) and RU01, as well as between some spot products and NR main contracts, are presented in seasonal charts [51]. 3.8 Cost and Profit 3.8.1 Raw Material Prices - On October 29, 2025, the price of Hainan glue (state - owned) was 14,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and an increase of 600 yuan/ton from last week. - The price of Thai glue was 55.5 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 1 Thai baht/kg from the previous day and 1.4 Thai baht/kg from last week [59]. 3.8.2 Theoretical Profits - The theoretical delivery profit of full - latex in Yunnan, the production gross profit of Yunnan tire rubber TSR9710, and the processing and import profits of Thai smoked sheets, Thai standard rubber, and Thai mixed rubber are presented in seasonal charts [68][71].

Group 1: Overall Market and Macroeconomic Situation - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October and will end balance - sheet reduction in December, but Powell's hawkish remarks on December rate - cut prospects led the market's probability of a December rate cut to drop from 95% to 65% [1][3] - South Korea promised to invest $350 billion in the US to get tariff preferences for the auto and semiconductor industries, and the US - Canada trade negotiation was suspended [1] - The Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected and significantly lowered its economic growth forecast [1] - China's Q3 GDP growth rate declined as expected, and the GDP deflator showed a recovery trend. Fiscal policy has clearly taken action to support the economy [2] - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was positively received by the stock market, and the adjustment of key work deployment emphasized the importance of technology, opening - up, and focusing on people's livelihood to boost domestic demand [2] Group 2: RMB Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.0991 on the previous trading day, up 15 basis points, and the central parity rate was raised by 13 basis points [3] - Optimistic expectations of Sino - US trade negotiations and the central bank's guidance on the exchange rate are key factors for the RMB's strength against the US dollar. Export enterprises are advised to lock in forward exchange settlement at around 7.13, and import enterprises are advised to adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at the 7.09 mark [4] Group 3: Stock Index - The stock index closed higher on the previous trading day, with small - cap stocks performing strongly. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose 1.19%. The total trading volume of the two markets increased by 10.817 billion yuan [5] - The release of the full - version of the "15th Five - Year Plan Proposal" boosted market sentiment. The stock index is expected to be affected by the Fed's rate - cut expectations, with short - term volatility increasing but overall remaining relatively strong [5] Group 4: Treasury Bonds - On Wednesday, Treasury bond futures opened higher, but the TL contract closed down. The stock market was strong, but the bond market was not affected. The yield of 1 - 3 - year bonds decreased by 3 - 4 basis points. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy on dips [6] Group 5: Container Shipping (European Routes) - On October 29, the container shipping index (European routes) futures market closed higher across the board. The main contract EC2512 rose 5.08%. The market volume increased significantly, and the position of the main contract increased to 31,906 lots [8] - Bullish factors include geopolitical support, improved macro - situation, and a stronger spot index. Bearish factors include uncertain spot demand, a loose supply - demand pattern, and weak European economic data. The futures are expected to continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but beware of technical corrections [9][10][11] Group 6: Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - On Wednesday, precious metal prices continued to fluctuate and adjust. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3941.7 per ounce, down 1.04%; SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 11,338 yuan per kilogram, up 1.91% [13] - The Fed's hawkish rate cut in December led to a significant cooling of rate - cut expectations. In the short term, precious metals are in an adjustment phase. It is recommended to pay attention to mid - term buying opportunities on dips and continue to hold existing long positions cautiously [13][15] Group 7: Copper - Overnight, Comex copper closed at $5.19 per pound, down 1.35%; LME copper closed at $11,090 per ton, up 0.47%; SHFE copper closed at 89,130 yuan per ton, up 1.23%. The 89,200 level may be the high for the year [16][17] - Glencore lowered its 2025 copper production target due to a decline in ore grade at some mines. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at 87,000 and the pressure at 89,200 for the December contract [16][17][18] Group 8: Aluminum and Related Products - For aluminum, the Fed's rate cut and Sino - US trade talks have mixed effects. In the short term, Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level. For alumina, it is in an oversupply situation, and it is recommended to maintain a short - position strategy. For cast aluminum alloy, it has a strong follow - up relationship with Shanghai aluminum, and it is recommended to pay attention to the price difference [18][19][20] Group 9: Zinc - The zinc price maintained a high - level shock on the previous trading day. The smelting end's willingness to cut production in November has increased, and the low inventory provides support for the price. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [21][22] Group 10: Nickel and Stainless Steel - The Shanghai nickel main contract rose 0.34%, and the stainless - steel main contract rose 0.31%. The nickel ore policy in Indonesia has become stricter, and the downstream demand for new energy is strong. Stainless steel may fluctuate widely due to cost and demand factors [22][23] Group 11: Tin - The Shanghai tin main contract was strongly volatile on the previous trading day, closing at 286,700 yuan per ton. Technically, the 290,000 level is a stable resistance. Fundamentally, supply is weaker than demand, and it is recommended to hold long positions [23][24] Group 12: Carbonate Lithium - On Wednesday, the main contract of carbonate lithium futures closed at 82,900 yuan per ton, up 1.54%. The market demand is good, and the futures price is expected to be supported in stages [25] Group 13: Lead - The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17,355 yuan per ton. The high - lead price has a limited upside. It is recommended to use an option double - selling strategy to earn option premiums [25][26][27] Group 14: Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Rebar has been oscillating upward recently, supported by rising iron ore and coking coal prices and improved downstream demand. However, the upward momentum is weak due to weak fundamentals and weak iron ore prices. Crude steel production is expected to decline slightly [28] Iron Ore - The iron ore market has a loose supply - demand relationship. Supply is abundant, and inventory is high, while demand is weak. After the impact of macro - events fades, the price is expected to continue to be under pressure [29] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal supply has tightened, and coke enterprises have started the third round of price increases. In the short term, coke prices may be strong, but the potential negative feedback from the steel market will limit the rebound height of coal and coke prices [30] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The fundamentals of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese provide limited support, and the upward space is limited due to high inventory and weak demand [30][31] Group 15: Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - WTI crude oil futures rose 0.55% to $60.48 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures rose 0.77% to $64.32 per barrel. The decline in EIA inventory and Sino - US trade optimism led to a small increase in oil prices, but in the long - term, supply surplus may put pressure on prices [32][33] LPG - The LPG market rose slightly due to macro - favorable factors. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate, with supply affected by port arrivals and demand showing little change [34][35] PTA - PX - The PX - TA - PR sector was strongly volatile due to the "anti - involution" sentiment. PX supply is expected to remain high in the fourth quarter, and PTA is in a relatively surplus situation. In the short term, it is expected to be strongly volatile, and in the long - term, the industrial structure contradiction needs to be resolved [35][36][37] MEG - Bottle Chips - The fundamentals of ethylene glycol have marginally improved, but the valuation is under pressure due to inventory accumulation expectations. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to sell call options on rallies [39][40] Methanol - The methanol 01 contract is not optimistic from a fundamental perspective. It is recommended to reduce short - put positions and sell call options on the 01 contract [40][41] PP - The PP market is in a situation of oversupply. Although the supply has slightly decreased in the short term, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [43][44] PE - The PE market is also facing supply - demand pressure. Supply is expected to increase, and demand growth is limited. It is mainly affected by cost and macro - factors and is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [46][47] Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene is expected to be weak in the fourth quarter due to a high - supply and low - demand situation. Styrene has inventory pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider narrowing the processing spread on rallies [47][48] Fuel Oil - For high - sulfur fuel oil, the current high - cracking situation is a strong - expectation and weak - reality pattern, and the upside of cracking is limited. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the fundamentals are weak, but the valuation is low and there is an expectation of repair [48][49][50] Asphalt - The asphalt market showed no more - than - expected performance during the peak season. The short - term price was boosted by cost, but the spot basis continued to weaken. It is recommended to wait and see or try short - positions when the price reaches the resistance level [51][52] Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - The rubber market was boosted by macro - sentiment. The downstream performance is good, but there is still inventory pressure and uncertainty in the long - term supply and demand. In the short term, it is strong, but the upward drive is limited [52][53][54] Urea - The urea futures price rose with the improvement of macro - sentiment, and the spot sales also improved. However, in the long - term, it still faces pressure without export quotas [55] Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - For soda ash, the supply is expected to remain high in the long - term, and the price is limited by high inventory but supported by cost. For glass, the inventory is high, and the spot sales have improved after price cuts. The game in the 01 contract may continue until near delivery [56][57]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The current core contradictions affecting the LPG price trend include cost - side crude oil being under supply - surplus pressure and geopolitical disturbances, leading to increased volatility; the CP October contract price dropping unexpectedly, with propane at $495/ton (-$25) and butane at $475/ton (-$15), and the November price expected to decline further; Sino - US relations being uncertain despite an overall positive trend; the domestic LPG fundamental situation having minor changes, with increased civil gas supply suppressing spot prices, stable chemical demand, and weak combustion demand. There are also some positive factors such as the good Sino - US negotiations and the demand support from FN spread and relatively good propane cracking profit [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs LPG Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for LPG is 4000 - 4500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 21.85% and a 3 - year historical percentage of 37.75% [1] LPG Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - When inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, for a long spot position, it is recommended to short PG2512 futures to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a 25% hedging ratio and an entry range of 4400 - 4500. Also, sell PG2512C4400 call options to collect premiums and reduce costs, with a 25% hedging ratio and an entry range of 60 - 70 [1] Procurement Management - When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, for a short spot position, it is recommended to buy PG2512 futures at a low price on the disk to lock in procurement costs, with a 25% hedging ratio and an entry range of 3800 - 4000. Also, sell PG2512P4000 put options to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, with a 25% hedging ratio and an entry range of 50 - 70 [1] Industry Data Summary - Various data including prices, spreads, monthly spreads, ratios, and profits are presented. For example, on October 29, 2025, Brent was at $64.3, WTI at $60.36, and the LPG main contract closing price was 4312. There are also details about differentials such as FEI - MOPJ M1, LPG - FEI, etc., and profit data like盘面进口利润 - FEI and Asian propane cracking profit [5] Seasonal Data - There are numerous seasonal data presented, such as FEI M1, CP M1, MB M1, NWE C3 M1 price seasonality; FEI, CP, MB, LPG cheapest delivery product price and basis seasonality; various spread, monthly spread, ratio, and profit seasonality; and freight and Panama Canal water - level seasonality [7][10][59]