Report Information - Report Title: Polyester Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: April 9, 2025 - Analysts: Dai Yifan (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0015428), Zhou Jiawei (Futures Practitioner License No.: F03133676) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1][2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Due to the expansion of concerns about the global economic downturn risk caused by the mutual imposition of tariffs between China and the US, the crude oil price has weakened significantly recently, and the macro - expectation has also turned weak. The actual effect of the reduction in ethylene glycol imports due to tariff policies is questionable. At the current valuation, the probability of domestic ethylene glycol enterprises reducing production due to poor efficiency is low. The macro - pessimistic expectation may accelerate the implementation of polyester production reduction plans. Under the expectation of balanced supply and reduced demand, the valuation of ethylene glycol is expected to be significantly pressured [4] Summary by Relevant Contents Polyester Price Range Forecast - Ethylene glycol price range (monthly): 3700 - 4300, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 24.35%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 80.2% - PX price range (monthly): 5400 - 6000, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 37.80%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 100.0% - PTA price range (monthly): 3800 - 4400, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 33.28%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 87.2% - Bottle chip price range (monthly): 5100 - 5600, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 26.31%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 87.9% [3] Polyester Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - When the finished - product inventory is high and worried about the decline in ethylene glycol price: - Short ethylene glycol futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 4100 - 4200 - Buy put options to prevent price drops and sell call options to reduce capital costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% - Buy ethylene glycol futures to lock in procurement costs in advance when worried about price increases, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 3800 - 3900 [3] Procurement Management - When the procurement of regular inventory is low and procurement is based on order situations: - Sell put options to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops, with a hedging ratio of 75% [3] Price and Spread Data - **Price Changes**: Brent crude oil decreased by 1.2 dollars/barrel on a daily basis and 12.9 dollars/barrel on a weekly basis. Most polyester - related products such as PX, PTA, EG, etc. also showed price declines [6] - **Spread Changes**: TA1 - 5 month spread increased by 36 yuan/ton on a daily basis and 50 yuan/ton on a weekly basis. EG1 - 5 month spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton on a daily basis and 16 yuan/ton on a weekly basis [8] Market Situation Analysis - **Positive Factors**: There are concentrated maintenance plans in April, and the supply - demand gap is clear after the US import volume is affected by tariffs - **Negative Factors**: US tariff policies impact terminal textile and clothing export demand, the US - Vietnam tariff negotiation restricts downstream product re - export trade, and ethylene glycol has a large inventory accumulation in the first quarter with high hidden inventory in factories [7] Profit and Sales Rate Data - **Profit**: POY profit increased by 70 yuan/ton on a daily basis and 394 yuan/ton on a weekly basis. Most polyester products showed profit increases - **Sales Rate**: The sales rate of polyester filament decreased by 14.3% on a daily basis and 94.8% on a weekly basis. The sales rate of polyester staple fiber increased by 8% on a daily basis and decreased by 40% on a weekly basis [8][9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, with the monthly line remaining strong. However, the weekly and daily lines show adjustment signals, and the volatility has increased significantly. It is recommended that investors hold positions lightly and cautiously or wait and see, and then gradually build long positions after the daily - level stop - falling signal appears [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Tuesday, the precious metals market showed a pattern of strength in the domestic market and weakness in the overseas market. Although the escalation of Sino - US trade conflicts suppressed the prices of precious metals denominated in US dollars, the depreciation of the RMB on the exchange - rate side still supported the performance of domestic precious metals. The surrounding US dollar index was under pressure, the 10Y US Treasury yield rose, crude oil and Bitcoin were weak, US stocks were under pressure while European stocks rose, and the Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index also adjusted weakly. COMEX Gold 2506 contract closed at $2998.3 per ounce, up 0.83%; US Silver 2505 contract closed at $29.75 per ounce, up 0.49%. SHFE Gold 2506 main contract closed at 719.22 yuan per gram, up 0.37%; SHFE Silver 2506 contract closed at 7683 yuan per kilogram, up 0.26% [2] 3.2 Interest Rate Hike Expectations and Fund Holdings - According to CME's "FedWatch", the market expects a 45.2% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged on May 8, 2025, and a 54.8% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut. By June 19, the probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged is 0%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 51%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 45.9%. By July 31, the probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged is 0%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 0%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 42.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point rate cut is 46.7%. In terms of long - term funds, the SPDR Gold ETF's holdings decreased by 0.86 tons to 925.92 tons daily; the iShares Silver ETF's holdings increased by 21.22 tons to 13937.6 tons daily. In terms of inventory, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 45.8 tons to 1104.8 tons daily; as of the week ending March 28, SGX silver inventory increased by 37.2 tons weekly to 1768.4 tons [3][4] 3.3 This Week's Focus - Fed's Daly said that Fed's policy is in a very good state and is moderately restrictive. The Fed can take its time and act cautiously in policy. This week, in terms of data, the main focus is on the US March CPI data on Thursday evening. In terms of events, at 2:00 on Thursday, the Fed will release the minutes of the March monetary policy meeting; at 0:00 on Friday, 2025 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will speak at the New York Economic Club; at 17:45, ECB President Lagarde will speak at the Eurogroup's press conference; at 22:00, 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Mousalem will speak on the US economy and monetary policy; at 23:00, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will speak on the economic outlook and monetary policy. Special attention should be paid to the implementation of US tariff policies on April 9 [5] 3.4 Price and Inventory Data - **Precious Metals Futures and Spot Prices**: SHFE Gold main - continuous contract was at 719.22 yuan per gram, up 0.14%; SGX Gold TD was at 717.4 yuan per gram, up 0.58%; CME Gold main contract was at $2998.3 per ounce, down 0.02%. SHFE Silver main - continuous contract was at 7683 yuan per kilogram, up 0.87%; SGX Silver TD was at 7689 yuan per kilogram, up 1.09%; CME Silver main contract was at $29.75 per ounce, down 1.11%. SHFE - TD Gold was at 1.82 yuan per gram, up 2500%; SHFE - TD Silver was at - 6 yuan per kilogram, up 53.33%. CME gold - silver ratio was 99.6776, down 3.7% [7] - **Inventory and Holdings**: SHFE gold inventory was 15,675 kilograms, unchanged; CME gold inventory was 1401.6549 tons, down 0.02%. SHFE gold holdings were 186,814 lots, unchanged; SPDR gold holdings were 925.92 tons, down 0.09%. SHFE silver inventory was 1104.782 tons, down 3.98%; CME silver inventory was 15304.2415 tons, up 0.4%. SGX silver inventory was 1768.38 tons, up 2.15%. SHFE silver holdings were 345,267 lots, unchanged; SLV silver holdings were 13937.602178 tons, up 0.15% [13] - **Stock, Bond, and Commodity Market Overview**: The US dollar index was at 102.9585, down 0.46%; the US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.3936, up 0.63%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 37,645.59 points, down 0.84%; WTI crude oil spot was at $59.58 per barrel, down 1.85%. LmeS copper 03 was at $8588 per ton, down 1.87%. The 10Y US Treasury yield was 4.26%, up 2.65%; the 10Y US real interest rate was 2.04%, up 4.08%; the 10 - 2Y US Treasury yield spread was 0.42%, up 27.27% [18]

股指日报 股指期货日报 2. 中国国新表示，坚定看好中国资本市场发展前景，坚决当好长期资本、耐心资本、战略资本，其旗下国新 投资有限公司增持中央企业股票、科技创新类股票及ETF，积极支持关键领域科技创新，为维护市场稳定运 行贡献力量。 3. 中国电科表示基于对我国经济长期向好的坚定信心，积极履行对资本市场承诺，已完成增持回购旗下上市 公司股票超过20亿元。 4. 央行就支持中央汇金公司稳定资本市场答记者问指出，坚定支持中央汇金公司加大力度增持股票市场指数 基金，并在必要时向中央汇金公司提供充足的再贷款支持，坚决维护资本市场平稳运行 2025年4月8日 王梦颖（Z0015429）、廖臣悦 (F03120676) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 "国家队"入场，悲观情绪有所缓解 市场回顾 今日股指集体反弹，以沪深300指数为例，收盘上涨1.71%。从资金面来看，两市成交额增加378.44亿元。期 指方面，IF、IH缩量上涨，IC放量上涨，IM放量下跌。 重要资讯 1. 中国诚通旗下诚通金控和诚旸投资增持交易型开放式指数基金（ETF）和中央企业股票，坚决维护资本市 场平稳运行。 核心观点 在美国" ...

油料产业风险管理日报 2025/04/08 周昱宇（投资咨询证号：Z0019884） 靳晚冬（期货从业证号：F03118199） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 油料价格区间预测 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕：2800-3300 | 22.1% | 80.0% | | 菜粕：2450-2750 | 0.2979 | 0.751 | source： 南华研究 油料套保策略表 | | 收盘价 | 今日涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕01 | 3024 | 0 | 0% | | 豆粕05 | 2885 | 0 | 0% | | 豆粕09 | 3056 | 17 | 0.56% | | 菜粕01 | 2357 | -18 | -0.76% | | 菜粕05 | 2598 | 0 | 0% | | 菜粕09 | 2723 | -26 | -0.95% | | CBOT黄大豆 | 984.5 | 0 | 0% | | 离岸人民币 | 7.34 ...

苯乙烯风险管理日报 戴一帆 . 苯乙烯风险管理日报 2025-04-08 17:14:24 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 黄思婕（期货从业证号：F03130744） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 苯乙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 苯乙烯 | 7000-7600 | 28.30% | 83.8% | source： 南华研究 苯乙烯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | (%) | 区间 | | 理 | 下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空苯乙烯期货来锁定 利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | EB2505 | 卖出 买入 | 25% | 7250-735 0 70-120 | | 库存管 | 产成品 ...

贵金属日报：延续调整 关注关税政策变化 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年4月8日 【行情回顾】 周一贵金属价格延续调整，但白银下方买需呈现更强的积极性。国内白银日盘在补跌后一度触及跌停 板。周边美指与10Y美债收益率走升，原油和比特币低位运行，美股低位震荡，但欧股仍偏弱，南华有色金属 指数偏弱运行，盘中因传特朗普正考虑对部分国家暂停征收90天关税消息影响，大类资产普遍快速回升，7分 钟后消息被白宫证伪，资产价格重新回落。最终COMEX黄金2506合约收报2998.8美元/盎司，-1.21%；美 白银2505合约收报于30.085美元/盎司，+2.93%。 SHFE黄金2506主力合约收报718.18元/克，-2.85%； SHFE白银2506合约收7617元/千克，-9.03% 。 【加息预期与基金持仓 】 据CME"美联储观察"，市场预期美联储25年5月8日维持利率不变的概率为43%，降息25个基点的概 率为57%；到6月19日，维持当前利率不变的概率为20.4%，累计降息25个基点的概率为49.7%，累计降息 50个基点的概率为29.9 ...

南华商品指数：农产品领涨，能化板块领跌 王怡琳 2025-04-08 17:01:03 摘要：依照相邻交易日的收盘价计算，今日南华综合指数下跌-1.74%。板块指数中，涨幅最大的板块是南华农产品 指数，上涨0.99%，涨幅最小的板块是南华贵金属指数，涨幅为0.43%，跌幅最大的板块是南华能化指数，跌幅 为-2.91%，跌幅最小的板块是南华有色金属指数，跌幅为-0.29%。 主题指数中，只有油脂油料指数，上涨1.44%， 其余主题指数均是下跌，跌幅最大的主题指数是能源指数，跌幅为-4.42%，跌幅最小的主题指数是经济作物指数， 跌幅为-0.59%。 商品期货单品种指数中，涨幅最大的单品种指数是鸡蛋，上涨3. 主要单品种指数收益率VS波动率 4.00% 70.00% 60.00% 2.00% 50.00% 0.00% 40.00% -2.00% 30.00% -4.00% 20.00% -6.00% 10.00% 0.00% -8.00% 抑症 P 紋伊 纯 铜 相 有 ZZ 焦 炭 技矿石 展 t 铜井 ts 主要单品种指数当日持仓额变化比例 10_00% 5.00% 0.00% -5.00% -10_00% ...

股指日报 股指期货日报 2025年4月7日 王梦颖（Z0015429）、廖臣悦 (F03120676) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 全线大跌 市场回顾 今日股指集体大跌，大盘指数相对抗跌，以沪深300指数为例，收盘下跌7.05%。从资金面来看，两市成交额 增加4501.79亿元。期指方面，IM缩量下跌，其余品种均放量下跌。 重要资讯 1. 国务院关税税则委员会公告称，自2025年4月10日12时01分起，对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税。有关 事项如下：对原产于美国的所有进口商品，在现行适用关税税率基础上加征34%关税；现行保税、减免税政 策不变，此次加征的关税不予减免。 2. 商务部会同海关总署发布关于对钐、钆、铽、镝、镥、钪、钇等7类中重稀土相关物项实施出口管制措施的 公告，并于发布之日起正式实施。 3. 人民日报评论员：降准、降息等货币政策工具已留有充分调整余地。新华时评：坚定不移推进高水平对外 开放，维护多边主义，促进开放合作。 策略推荐 买入看跌期权 股指日报期指市场观察 | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

南华商品指数：所有板块均下跌，有色板块领跌 南华商品指数日报 2025年4月7日 南华指数小组 曹扬慧 (Z0000505) 赵 搏(F03103098) 王怡琳 (F03118352) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 | | | | 南华商品指数市场数据 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 今收盘 | 昨收盘 | 点数 | 日帰 | 年化收益率 | 年化波动率 | Sharpe | | | Today Close | Pre. Close | Points | % | ARR | An.Vol | Ratio | | 综合指数 NHCI | 2432.81 | 2541.39 | -108.58 | -4.27% | -5.40% | 13.52% | -0.40 | | 贵金属指数 NHPMI | 1114.20 | 1171.53 | -57.33 | -4.89% | 30.77% | 19.21% | 1.60 | | 工业品指数 NHII | 3562.68 | 3727.58 ...

I 2025/03/31 2025/04/03 50ETF 83.38 -18.36% - 1 0.72 300ETF 79.77 120.51 500ETF 111.88 97.28 50ETF 64.02 163.5 100ETF 4.61 8.36 ETF 95.68 119.02 300 7.16 19.82 1000 20.17 22.58 300 14.85% 0.70% 50ETF 14.17% 0.65% 1000 22.98% 1.10% 50ETF 14.69 300 16.15 1000 22.4 2011 1290 Z0014889 F03124116 I 2025/03/31 2025/04/03 1.15 1. 金融期权方面，50ETF期权本周日均成交量为83.38万张，较前周下降-18.36%，其 中认沽期权成交量高于认购期权，认沽-认购成交比为1，相对前周有所上升，高于 历史均值水平。上周认沽认购持仓比为0.72，较前周下降，低于历史均值。华泰柏 瑞300ETF期权日均成交79.77万张，日均持仓量120.51万张；南方中证500ETF期权 日均成交111.88万张，日均持仓量 ...