Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current price of logs is within a reasonable valuation range. Although the price fluctuates around the warehouse - receipt cost, from a trading perspective, the upward risk - return ratio is better than the downward one [3]. - The data of the 07 contract's delivery situation provides important references for future delivery distribution, including the quantity of delivery items, the proportion of the lowest - cost warehouse receipts, and the approximate range of the average warehouse - receipt cost [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Log Price Forecast and Hedging Strategy - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 820 - 860, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.28% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 67.4% [2]. - For inventory management, when log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, it is recommended to short log futures (lg2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 850 - 875 to prevent inventory losses [2]. - For procurement management, when the regular procurement inventory is low, it is recommended to buy log futures (lg2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 810 - 820 to lock in procurement costs [2]. Core Contradiction - The 09 contract is three weeks away from delivery. The 07 contract had a total of 1281 hands delivered, with 63% by truck - board delivery (20% in Lanshan, 55% in Taicang, 24% in Chongqing) and 37% by warehouse - receipt delivery (82% in Lanshan, 18% in Taicang, 0% in Chongqing) [3]. - The spot price and the far - end CFR quote have increased, indicating a rise in delivery costs [3]. 利多 and 利空 Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: Importers are willing to support prices due to continuous import losses, import costs are rising, the overall sentiment of commodities is improving, and there is an impact from capital [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The peak season is not prosperous, and the shipping volume from foreign suppliers is continuously increasing [6]. Spot and Basis - The report provides detailed spot prices, price changes, and basis data for different specifications of logs at various ports on August 8, 2025, and calculates the converted basis [4][7]. Log Data Overview - **Supply**: The radiation - pine import volume in June 2025 was 1.61 million m³, a decrease of 80,000 m³ from the previous period but a 35.3% increase year - on - year [8]. - **Inventory**: As of August 1, 2025, the total port inventory in China was 3.17 million m³, unchanged from the previous period but a 4.5% decrease year - on - year. The port inventory in Shandong was 1.95 million m³, an increase of 20,000 m³ from the previous period and a 10.5% increase year - on - year. The port inventory in Jiangsu was 0.96 million m³, a decrease of 56,400 m³ from the previous period but an 11.6% increase year - on - year [8]. - **Demand**: As of August 1, 2025, the average daily outbound volume of logs at ports was 64,200 m³, an increase of 100 m³ from the previous period and a 33.2% increase year - on - year. The average daily outbound volume in Shandong was 35,700 m³, an increase of 1,800 m³ from the previous period and a 55.9% increase year - on - year. The average daily outbound volume in Jiangsu was 23,200 m³, a decrease of 1,400 m³ from the previous period but a 19.0% increase year - on - year [8]. - **Profit**: As of August 8, 2025, the import profit of radiation pine was - 96 yuan/m³, a decrease of 12 yuan/m³ from the previous period. The import profit of spruce was - 87 yuan/m³, an increase of 19 yuan/m³ from the previous period [8]. - **Outer - Market Quote**: The CFR quote on August 8, 2025, was 116 US dollars/JASm³, an increase of 2 US dollars from the previous period but a 1.7% decrease year - on - year [8].

南华油品发运数据周报 ——原油发运量大幅增加，当周BDTI运价指数涨幅扩大 傅小燕 （投资咨询证号：Z0002675） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年8月8日 一、摘要 当周（8月4日~8月7日）BDTI原油运价指数收于1007点，环比上涨9.33%（涨幅扩大），同比上涨7.7%（由 跌转涨）。 截至8月1日当周，发运量"两降两增"。美国增20.37%、俄罗斯降4.83%、沙特增28.73%、阿联酋降 4.27%。 截至8月6日，区域船舶通行量上，红海区域原油船舶、亚丁湾区域原油船舶均增加，对油轮用船需求增加， 明显利多BDTI运价指数。 重要事件关注：OPEC+原油增产、全球经济预期、美国关税政策 二、BDTI原油运价指数走势：当周运价快速反弹超2024年同期 截至2025年8月7日，BDTI原油运价指数收于1007点，环比上涨9.33%，同比上涨7.7%。 从季节性走势看，当周运价明显上涨。 波罗的海运费指数：原油（BDTI） 波罗的海运费指数：原油（BDTI） 3000 波罗的海运费指数：原油（BDTI）季节性 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 3000 s ...

股指日报 股指期货日报 2025年8月8日 王映(Z0016367) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 信息平淡下的缩量震荡 市场回顾 今日股指震荡为主，四大规模指数均小幅下降。从资金面来看，两市成交额回落1152.63亿元。期指方面，各 品种均缩量，IC主力小幅上涨，其余期指均回落，多头情绪回落。 重要资讯 | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力日内涨跌幅（%） | -0.24 | -0.44 | 0.01 | -0.20 | | 成交量（万手） | 7.5164 | 3.9458 | 6.9645 | 15.7592 | | 成交量环比（万手） | -1.8105 | -0.9004 | -1.8301 | -3.7903 | | 持仓量（万手） | 25.0531 | 8.9786 | 21.4682 | 33.4195 | | 持仓量环比（万手） | -0.9906 | -0.3451 | -0.8103 | -1.1229 | source： wind,南华研究 股指日报现货市场观察 | 名称 | 数值 ...

Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report - Date: August 8, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - Tin prices showed a slight increase on Thursday, indicating strong resilience. Supply - side issues are not easily resolved, and there are uncertainties in Myanmar's resumption of production. If the delay persists, tin prices may continue to rise slightly. The impact of weak demand on tin prices has not been fully reflected [3] Key Points by Category 1. Price and Volatility - The latest closing price of tin is 267,940 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 14.36%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 26.1% [2] - On the tin futures market, the prices of Shanghai Tin Main, Shanghai Tin Continuous 1, and Shanghai Tin Continuous 3 remained unchanged at 267,940 yuan/ton, 267,940 yuan/ton, and 268,250 yuan/ton respectively. The price of LME Tin 3M was 33,835 US dollars/ton, up 605 US dollars or 1.82%. The Shanghai - London ratio was 8.02, unchanged [7] 2. Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, with a long spot position, it is recommended to short the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at a hedging ratio of 75% around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell call options (SN2509C275000) at a hedging ratio of 25% when volatility is appropriate [2] Raw Material Management - For low raw - material inventory and concerns about price increases, with a short spot position, it is recommended to long the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at a hedging ratio of 50% around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell put options (SN2509P245000) at a hedging ratio of 25% when volatility is appropriate [2] 3. Factors Affecting Prices Bullish Factors - Sino - US tariff policy easing, the semiconductor sector still in the expansion cycle, and Myanmar's resumption of production falling short of expectations [8] Bearish Factors - Repeated tariff policies, the inflow of Myanmar's tin ore into China, and the slowdown of the semiconductor sector's expansion and transition to the contraction cycle [5][6] 4. Spot and Inventory Data Spot Data (Weekly) - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots was 267,200 yuan/ton, up 1,700 yuan or 0.64%. The 1 tin premium was 400 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan or 42.86%. The prices of 40% and 60% tin concentrates were 255,200 yuan/ton and 259,200 yuan/ton respectively, both up 1,700 yuan [13] Inventory Data (Daily) - The total warehouse receipt quantity of tin on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 7,332 tons, down 26 tons or 0.35%. Among them, the warehouse receipt quantity in Guangdong was 4,919 tons, up 14 tons or 0.29%, and in Shanghai was 1,542 tons, down 40 tons or 2.53%. The total LME tin inventory was 1,755 tons, down 120 tons or 6.4% [20] 5. Import and Processing Data - The tin import profit and loss was - 15,412.62 yuan/ton, up 9.49%. The processing fees for 40% and 60% tin ore were 12,200 yuan/ton and 10,050 yuan/ton respectively, unchanged [21]

Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report - Date: August 8, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core View - Copper prices have been mainly fluctuating recently. The price difference between LME copper and COMEX copper has basically stabilized. In the short term, it's hard to see LME copper prices continuously higher than COMEX copper prices. However, there are still undercurrents in the spot market and inventory. The sharp decline led by COMEX copper may slightly boost the valuations of the other two copper markets, and investors should be wary of the negative impact of weak copper demand [3] Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 78,460 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2] Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - When finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, with a long spot exposure, it's recommended to short 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the CU2509C82000 call option when volatility is relatively stable [2] Raw Material Management - When raw material inventory is low and there are concerns about price increases, with a short spot exposure, it's recommended to long 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2] Factors Affecting Copper Prices Bullish Factors - The US and other countries have reached an agreement on tariff policies - The US dollar index has declined due to employment data - There is obvious support at the lower level [4] Bearish Factors - Tariff policies are inconsistent - Global demand has decreased due to tariff policies - The adjustment of the US copper tariff policy has led to an extremely high virtual inventory in COMEX [5][6] Copper Market Data Futures Market - Shanghai Copper main contract: 78,460 yuan/ton, unchanged, 0% daily change - Shanghai Copper continuous - one contract: 78,460 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan, 0.23% daily change - Shanghai Copper continuous - three contract: 78,440 yuan/ton, unchanged, 0% daily change - LME 3M copper: 9,670.5 US dollars/ton, down 3.5 US dollars, - 0.04% daily change - Shanghai - London ratio: 8.15, unchanged, 0% daily change [6] Spot Market - Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper: 78,500 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan, 0.19% daily change - Shanghai Wumaomao: 78,465 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan, 0.17% daily change - Guangdong Southern Reserve: 78,330 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan, 0.18% daily change - Yangtze Non - ferrous: 78,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan, 0.13% daily change [7] Refined - Scrap Spread - Current refined - scrap spread (tax - included): 660.43 yuan/ton, down 173.61 yuan, - 20.82% daily change - Reasonable refined - scrap spread (tax - included): 1,483.2 yuan/ton, down 2.8 yuan, - 0.19% daily change - Price advantage (tax - included): - 822.77 yuan/ton, down 170.81 yuan, 26.2% daily change [9] Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse receipts: total 20,145 tons, down 201 tons, - 0.99% daily change - LME copper inventory: total 156,000 tons, down 125 tons, - 0.08% daily change - COMEX copper inventory: total 263,296 tons, up 5,381 tons, 2.09% weekly change [13][15][18] Import and Processing - Copper import profit and loss: - 141.8 yuan/ton, up 120.22 yuan, - 45.88% daily change - Copper concentrate TC: - 41 US dollars/ton, unchanged, 0% daily change [19]

南华贵金属日报:降息预期回升 贵金属延续走高 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年8月8日 【行情回顾】 周四贵金属市场偏强运行，最终SHFE黄金2510主力合约785.02元/克，+0.1%；SHFE白银2510合约收 9258元/千克，+1.07%。近期美经济数据不佳以及政府对美联储施压等影响，美联储9月降息预期回升是价 格上涨主因。周四晚间公布的美周度初请失业金人数高于预期，反映就业市场降温，而美7月纽约联储1Y通胀 预期走升。消息面，英国央行周四宣布降息25基点至4%，符合市场预期，但九位货币政策委员会成员中四人 反对降息，亦出现罕见"双轮投票"，显示出央行内部在通胀压力下的政策分歧正在加剧。中国央行则连续 第9个月增持黄金1.86吨至2300.41多。 【本周关注】 本周数据清淡。事件方面，周五22：20，2025年FOMC票委、圣路易联储主席穆萨莱姆发表讲话。 【南华观点】 中长线或偏多，短线仍主要由多头掌握局面，伦敦金有望延续回升，支撑3340，阻力3400，3450。伦敦银 支撑37.6，38，阻力38.5。操作上仍维持回调做多 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Domestically, the manufacturing PMI has declined marginally and is significantly weaker than the seasonal level in the same period of previous years, indicating overall downward pressure on the economy. The economy has entered a policy observation window, and if economic data continues to weaken, incremental policies may be introduced. Export growth has rebounded but faces downward pressure as the effects of rush - exporting and re - exporting fade. Overseas, the next few months are crucial for inflation trends. Although the Fed chairman's stance is hawkish, the Fed's core goals are employment stability and inflation control [2]. - The dollar index may maintain a consolidation trend in the short term, and its future direction depends on the US CPI data next week. The RMB exchange rate is expected to be supported in the 7.15 - 7.23 range, with a likely central value of 7.20 [6]. - The stock index is in a volatile correction phase. The trading volume has increased, and there are some positive factors in the structural level. The trading volume is expected to narrow, and the risk preference and amplitude may decline [8]. - The shipping index futures are expected to be volatile, with a higher possibility of a downward or sideways trend in the near - term and a slightly downward trend in the medium - term [10]. - Precious metals are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long - term and are currently dominated by bulls. Copper is expected to be volatile and slightly bearish. Zinc is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation and bearish in the long - term. Nickel and stainless steel are expected to be volatile. Tin may see a small increase. Carbonate lithium is expected to be in a wide - range and slightly bullish state. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to enter an oscillation phase in the short - term. Lead is expected to be in a strong - side oscillation. [12][13][14] - Rebar and hot - rolled coils are supported by costs and are in an oscillatory state. Iron ore's upward pressure is increasing. Coking coal and coke are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long - term. Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are supported by costs [24][25][28]. - Crude oil is under downward pressure due to the weakening of seasonal demand. LPG is in a weak and volatile state. PTA - PX suggests buying to expand the processing fee at low prices. MEG - bottle chips are expected to oscillate. PP is expected to be in a short - term oscillation. PE needs to wait for the return of downstream demand. Pure benzene and styrene are expected to be in an oscillatory arrangement. Fuel oil is weak. Low - sulfur fuel oil is bearish. Asphalt is expected to be weak and oscillatory in the short - term and bullish in the long - term. Urea is expected to be in an oscillatory and slightly bearish state. Glass, soda ash, and caustic soda are in a volatile state. Pulp is in the process of bottom - building. Logs are in a state of position tug - of - war and price oscillation. Propylene is in a low - level oscillation [34][37][39]. - The live - hog market is in a state of strong spot - market game. Oils and fats are expected to be in a slightly bullish and oscillatory state. Corn and starch are expected to be in an oscillatory and slightly bearish state. Cotton is expected to be in an oscillatory state. Sugar is expected to maintain a weak state. Eggs are expected to be in a short - term bullish state and can consider reverse spreads [65][67][68]. Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Market Information**: In July, China's exports increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and imports increased by 4.1%. High - tech product imports and exports increased by 8.4% in the first seven months. The UK central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points [1]. - **Core Logic**: Domestically, the economy is under downward pressure, and it has entered a policy observation window. Exports have rebounded but face downward pressure. Overseas, inflation trends are crucial in the next few months [2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB exchange rate is affected by external and internal factors. The dollar index may be range - bound in the short term, and the RMB exchange rate is expected to be supported in the 7.15 - 7.23 range [6]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index is in a volatile correction phase. The trading volume has increased, and there are some positive factors in the structural level [8]. - **Shipping Index**: The shipping index futures are expected to be volatile, with a higher possibility of a downward or sideways trend in the near - term and a slightly downward trend in the medium - term [10]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Prices are rising due to the increased expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. In the medium - to - long - term, it is expected to be bullish, and in the short - term, it is dominated by bulls [12]. - **Copper**: The price is mainly oscillatory, and investors need to be wary of weak demand [13]. - **Zinc**: Supported by low LME inventory and the fermentation of rate - cut expectations, it is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation and bearish in the long - term [14]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: They are expected to be volatile in the short - term [15]. - **Tin**: The price has a small increase, and there is a possibility of further upward movement [16]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It is expected to be in a wide - range and slightly bullish state due to supply - side disturbances [18]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: They are expected to enter an oscillation phase in the short - term. Industrial silicon has limited downward space, and polysilicon's fundamentals are loose [20]. - **Lead**: It is in a state of long - short divergence, and the short - term trend is expected to be a strong - side oscillation [21]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coils**: They are supported by costs and are in an oscillatory state. The supply of five major steel products has decreased, and demand has increased, with inventory accumulating [24]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is in a high - level oscillation, and the upward pressure is increasing [25]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The coking coal market has production disturbances, and the coke market has room for price increases. They are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long - term [28]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: They are supported by costs. The supply and demand situation is complex, and the long - term demand is affected by the real - estate market [30]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The price has dropped for six consecutive days. The fundamentals are mixed, and there is a risk of supply surplus as seasonal demand weakens [34]. - **LPG**: The cost is falling, and the supply is loose. The demand has a slight improvement, and the 09 contract is weak [37]. - **PTA - PX**: The price has fallen. PX supply is expected to increase, and PTA may have a supply - demand gap in August. It is recommended to buy to expand the processing fee at low prices [39]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: They are expected to oscillate. The supply and demand contradiction of MEG is not significant, and the bottle chips' price fluctuates with the cost [41]. - **PP**: It is expected to be in a short - term oscillation. The supply is under pressure from new - device production, and the demand is weak [44]. - **PE**: It is affected by external factors. The current pressure is large, but there is an expectation of demand recovery in August [47]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: They are expected to be in an oscillatory arrangement. Pure benzene's supply and demand are both increasing, and styrene's supply is expected to be in surplus in August - September [48][50]. - **Fuel Oil**: It is weak. The supply has improved, and the demand has a slight increase. The domestic FU market is under downward pressure [51]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It has fallen due to the drag of crude oil. The supply is low, and the demand is weak [52]. - **Asphalt**: It is expected to be weak and oscillatory in the short - term and bullish in the long - term. The supply has increased, and the demand is affected by weather and funds [53]. - **Urea**: It is under pressure. The futures have fallen, and the spot market is under pressure, but there is support from exports [55]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, & Caustic Soda**: They are in a volatile state. Soda ash has a strong - supply and weak - demand pattern. Glass is in a weak - balance state. Caustic soda's supply is expected to increase [56][58][59]. - **Pulp**: It is in the process of bottom - building. The supply and inventory are high, and the demand has seasonal support [60]. - **Logs**: The price is in an oscillation state. The 07 - contract delivery data provides a reference for future delivery, and the delivery cost is rising [61]. - **Propylene**: The spot price has increased, and the market is in a low - level oscillation. The supply is loose, and the demand has a slight change [63]. Agricultural Products - **Live Hogs**: The price is weak and stable. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short at high prices and consider reverse spreads [65]. - **Oils and Fats**: They are expected to be in a slightly bullish and oscillatory state. Palm oil has a loose balance sheet, soybean oil has a good outlook for de - stocking, and rapeseed oil is in short - term consolidation [67]. - **Corn & Starch**: They are expected to be in an oscillatory and slightly bearish state. The corn price is stable or slightly weak, and starch is affected by cost and demand [68]. - **Cotton**: It is expected to be in an oscillatory state. The new - year US cotton signing is poor, and the domestic cotton supply and demand are expected to be tight at the end of the year [69]. - **Sugar**: It is expected to maintain a weak state. Brazil's sugar export has decreased, and India may allow sugar exports in the new season [70]. - **Eggs**: They are expected to be in a short - term bullish state. The long - term egg production capacity is loose, and reverse spreads can be considered [72].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current decline in cotton prices is conducive to the outflow of high-premium warehouse receipts, but the expectation of tight supply and demand of cotton at the end of the domestic year remains unchanged, which may still strongly support cotton prices. In the short term, cotton prices may remain volatile. Attention should be paid to the implementation of domestic import quota policies, the speed of cotton destocking during the off-season, and the adjustment of the China-US trade agreement [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategies - The predicted monthly price range of cotton is 13,600 - 14,400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0638 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0713 [3]. - For inventory management with high inventory and concerns about price drops, strategies include short - selling Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at 50% hedging ratio in the range of 14,200 - 14,400 to lock in profits and offset production costs, and selling call options (CF509C14400) at 75% hedging ratio in the range of 180 - 220 to collect premiums and lock in the spot selling price if prices rise [3]. - For procurement management with low regular inventory and hopes to purchase based on orders, strategies include buying Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at 50% hedging ratio in the range of 13,600 - 13,700 to lock in procurement costs, and selling put options (CF509P13600) at 75% hedging ratio in the range of 100 - 150 to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if prices fall [3]. Market Analysis Bullish Factors - Due to high tariffs, this year's cotton imports have significantly decreased, and reserve cotton has not been sold. The destocking speed of Xinjiang cotton is fast. As of July 15, the total industrial and commercial cotton inventory in the country was 3.4245 million tons, and the end - of - year supply is expected to be in a tight - balance state [5]. - Post - pricing by textile mills supports cotton prices [5]. Bearish Factors - Under the squeeze of spinning profits, the overall operating load of inland textile enterprises has further decreased, although Xinjiang textile enterprises' operation remains stable. There is still some pressure on downstream finished - product inventory despite a slight destocking recently [8]. - Xinjiang's new cotton is in the full - bloom and boll - setting stage, with a fast growth progress and good overall growth. There is an optimistic expectation for the new - year's output [8]. Market Data - Cotton and cotton yarn futures prices: Cotton 01 closed at 13,835, down 15 (-0.11%); Cotton 05 at 13,785, down 20 (-0.14%); Cotton 09 at 13,670, down 20 (-0.15%); Cotton yarn 01 at 19,765, down 25 (-0.13%); Cotton yarn 05 at 20,035, down 100% (unusual data); Cotton yarn 09 at 19,900, unchanged [7][9]. - Cotton and cotton yarn price spreads: Cotton basis was 1,521, up 33; Cotton 01 - 05 spread was 50, up 5; Cotton 05 - 09 spread was 115, unchanged; Cotton 09 - 01 spread was - 165, down 5; Cotton - yarn spread was 6,050, up 15; Domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,698, down 50; Domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 586, down 20 [10]. - Domestic and foreign cotton price indices: CCI 3128B was 15,191, up 13 (0.09%); CCI 2227B was 13,325, up 8 (0.06%); CCI 2129B was 15,475, up 10 (0.06%); FCI Index S was 13,696, up 84 (0.62%); FCI Index M was 13,480, up 59 (0.44%); FCI Index L was 13,180, up 59 (0.45%) [11].

Report Overview - Report Title: Polypropylene Risk Management Daily Report - Report Date: August 7, 2025 - Analysts: Dai Yifan, Gu Hengye [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The recent supply-demand pattern of PP has shown limited overall changes. The supply side faces pressure from new device commissioning and the recovery of PDH profits, while the demand side remains weak, and the supply-demand imbalance cannot be fundamentally alleviated in the short term, keeping PP in a weak pattern. However, recently, due to more disturbances from macro sentiment and coking coal prices, PP has generally shown a volatile pattern [3] Summary by Directory Polypropylene Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for polypropylene is 7000 - 7200. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 8.48%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility over 3 years is 6.7% [2] Polypropylene Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: For high product inventory and concerns about price drops, shorting PP2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio in the 7150 - 7200 range can lock in profits. Selling the PP2509C7300 call option with a 50% hedging ratio in the 10 - 50 range can collect premiums to reduce costs [2] - **Procurement Management**: For low regular procurement inventory and the need to purchase based on orders, buying PP2509 futures with a 50% hedging ratio in the 7000 - 7050 range can lock in procurement costs. Selling the PP2509P7000 put option with a 75% hedging ratio in the 10 - 50 range can collect premiums to reduce procurement costs and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [2] Core Contradictions - Supply - side pressure comes from new device commissioning and PDH profit recovery. Multiple devices were commissioned in the middle of the year, and two Daxie devices are expected to be commissioned in early August, increasing supply. The recovery of PDH production profits has led to the return of device operation, further intensifying supply - side pressure. Demand is weak, and there is no strong driver for demand growth [3] Bullish Factors - The "anti - involution" policy has driven up coking coal prices, providing cost support for polyolefins. Inventory is at a neutral level [4] Bearish Factors - Two Daxie devices are expected to be commissioned in early August, and multiple devices have been commissioned from June to August, significantly increasing PP production capacity. PDH profits have recovered, and marginal devices are gradually returning. Exports are seasonally weak, and the export window is currently closed [5] Polypropylene Daily Report Table - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On August 7, 2025, the polypropylene main - contract basis was - 15 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 3 yuan/ton and a weekly change of - 7 yuan/ton. There are also detailed price and spread data for different contracts and time spreads [6][8][9] - **Spot Prices and Regional Spreads**: Spot prices in North China, East China, and South China are provided, along with regional spread data [8][9] - **Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads**: Spreads between various non - standard and standard polypropylene products are given [8][9] - **Upstream Prices and Processing Profits**: Prices of Brent crude oil, US propane, northwest coal, and East China methanol, as well as processing profits for different production methods, are presented [8][9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current market is dominated by the mining license issue in Jiangxi. If it remains unresolved, significant market fluctuations may occur. The market has two logics: one is a potential "futures up - capacity release - increased ore consumption - ore price increase" chain during price rebounds; the other is a "lithium salt down - ore price down - lithium salt down again" negative feedback during price declines. In the second half of the year, the futures market is expected to first rise in Q3 due to improved macro - sentiment, mining license issues, and off - season demand, then fall in Q4 as production increases after technical upgrades [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include improved macro - sentiment and unresolved mining license issues; negative factors are high future lithium ore production expectations, inventory pressure, continuous inventory accumulation of lithium salt and cells, and cost reduction from technological upgrades [3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Price Interval Prediction - The short - term strong support level for the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 65,000 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 42.2%, and its historical percentile in 3 years is 73.5% [2]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: For high - inventory situations with potential for inventory impairment, sell 20% of LC2511 lithium carbonate futures, sell 20% of call options (both over - the - counter and on - exchange), and buy out - of - the - money put options [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For future procurement plans, buy lithium carbonate forward contracts according to the plan to lock in costs, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options [2]. 3.3 Futures Data - **Futures Main Contract**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 72,300 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2,680 yuan (3.85%) and a weekly increase of 4,020 yuan (5.89%). The trading volume is 766,669 lots (an 80.24% daily increase and 46.91% weekly increase), and the open interest is 289,832 lots (a 12.44% daily increase and 26.36% weekly increase) [8]. - **LC2601 Contract**: The closing price is 72,600 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2,560 yuan (3.66%) and a weekly increase of 3,460 yuan (5.00%). The trading volume is 129,077 lots (a 78.65% daily increase and 12.79% weekly increase), and the open interest is 112,441 lots (a 4.61% daily decrease and 12.77% weekly increase) [8]. - **Month - spread Changes**: LC09 - 11 is - 380 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 20 yuan (6%) and a weekly decrease of 60 yuan (19%); LC11 - 12 is - 280 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 20 yuan (8%) and a weekly increase of 240 yuan (- 46%); LC11 - 01 is - 300 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 120 yuan (- 29%) and a weekly increase of 240 yuan (- 44%) [10]. 3.4 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore**: The average prices of various lithium ores have different daily and weekly changes. For example, the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) is 1,750 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 60 yuan (3.55%) and no weekly change; the average price of lithium spodumene (Li2O: 6%, Brazil CIF) is 750 US dollars/ton, with a daily increase of 12.5 US dollars (1.69%) and a weekly decrease of 15 US dollars (- 1.96%) [16]. - **Carbon/Hydrogen Lithium**: The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 69,000 yuan/ton (a 0.22% daily increase and - 1.29% weekly decrease), and the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 71,100 yuan/ton (a 0.21% daily increase and - 1.25% weekly decrease) [19]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and electrolytes also have different daily changes. For example, the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) is 32,535 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 60 yuan (- 0.18%) [24]. 3.5 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis**: The basis of the lithium carbonate main continuous contract is shown in the chart. The brand - based basis quotes of different companies for the LC2507 contract vary, with most having no daily changes [26][27]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts increased from 15,023 to 16,443, with different changes in each warehouse [30][31]. 3.6 Cost and Profit No specific numerical summaries are provided due to the graphical presentation of cost - profit data, but it includes production profit from purchased lithium ore, theoretical delivery profit, and import profit of lithium carbonate [33].