股指日报 股指期货日报 2025年4月1日 1. 白宫：特朗普将于4月2日决定最终关税政策，对等关税计划不会包含任何豁免条款，对股市所受关税计划 影响"不以为然"。 核心观点 王梦颖（Z0015429）、廖臣悦 (F03120676) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 缩量震荡 重要资讯 市场回顾 今日股指涨跌不一，除上证50收跌外其余指数均收涨。从资金面来看，两市成交额回落892.63亿元。期指方 面。IH缩量下跌，其余各品种均缩量上涨。 今日股指涨跌不一，中小盘股指小幅反弹。从最新公布的经济数据来看，国内经济仍处于弱复苏态势，短期 内基本面预计难有超预期利好，政策面，在月底召开政治局会议前处于政策空窗期，政策利好驱动有所减 弱。海外方面，一方面美国经济衰退担忧一定程度利好外资流入A股，另一方面美国总统特朗普将于周三公布 对等关税政策，关税政策或影响美国通胀问题加剧，美联储未来货币政策不确定性增加，一定程度影响国内 降准降息节奏，同时关税政策力度的加大也会打击全球经济预期，对市场风险偏好形成压制。当前两市成交 额中枢持续下降，市场观望情绪较浓，短期预计指数区间震荡。 策略推荐 source： ...

南华铜日报 2025年4月1日 铜：小幅回落，符合预期 南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 点评 铜：小幅回落，符合预期 【盘面回顾】沪铜指数在周一小幅回落，报收在7.98万元每吨，上海有色现货升水15元每吨。 【产业表现】据业内人士称，中国铜原料联合谈判小组（CSPT）小组今日（3月31日）召开季度会议，决定 不为2025年第二季度铜精矿加工费用(TC/RCs)设定现货采购指导价。今年第一季度敲定的铜精矿现货采购指 导加工费TC/RC为25美元/吨及2.5美分/磅。 【核心逻辑】铜价在近期冲高回落，超出预期。造成铜价波动的主要原因依然来自美国铜关税预期。美国彭 博社日前报道称，包括托克集团、嘉能可集团和贡渥集团在内的大宗商品贸易商，都正在将大量原定发往亚 洲的铜改道发往美国。其中一些知情人士表示，由于数量巨大，贸易商不得不在新奥尔良和巴尔的摩预订额 外的仓储空间，以容纳这些货物。能源交易商摩科瑞估计，约有50万吨铜正在运往美国，远高于每月约7万吨 的正常进口量。铜价的冲高回落主要得益于多头的减仓，沪铜整体持仓从61万手减少到57万手 ...

南华锡日报 2025年4月1日 锡：缅甸地震或造成超涨 南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 点评 锡：缅甸地震或造成超涨 【核心逻辑】缅甸在3月28日突发7.9级地震，震中位于北纬21.85度，东经95.95度，离缅甸主要锡矿区尚有 一段距离。目前尚未有锡矿坍塌新闻流出，不过如此高的地震等级，锡矿难免受到影响。根据佤邦中央经济 计划委员会发布的草案，曼相矿区将在4月1日举行复工复产座谈会。该地震的爆发，极大概率延后座谈会的 举行，也将推迟实际复产时间。短期来看，锡价波动率或难以降低，绝对价格或小幅回落，因缅甸地震对价 格造成了超涨，料将会吐部分非理性涨幅。 锡期货盘面数据（日度） 单位 最新价 日涨跌 日涨跌幅 【盘面回顾】沪锡指数在周一高开低走，最终稳定在了28.2万元每吨。 【产业表现】基本面保持稳定。 | 沪锡主力 | 元/吨 | 282350 | 0 | 0% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪锡连一 | 元/吨 | 282350 | 0 | 0% | | 沪锡连三 | 元/吨 | 28 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report provides a weekly review of the Nanhua Commodity Index series and weekly data of each Nanhua sector index from March 21, 2025, to March 28, 2025, including market data, ratio data, position data, etc. [6] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Nanhua Commodity Index Series Weekly Review - **Market Data**: The comprehensive index NHCI closed at 2552.76 this week, up 31.26 points or 1.24% from last week; the precious metal index NHPMI closed at 1168.08, up 32.06 points or 2.82%; the industrial products index NHII closed at 3761.81, up 48.47 points or 1.31%; the metal index NHMI closed at 6431.00, up 83.56 points or 1.32%; the energy and chemical index NHECl closed at 1780.64, up 22.41 points or 1.27%; the non - ferrous metal index NHNFI closed at 1711.01, up 8.09 points or 0.47%; the black index NHFI closed at 2564.15, up 69.67 points or 2.79%; the agricultural products index NHAI closed at 1076.44, down 0.97 points or 0.09%; the mini - comprehensive index NHCIMi closed at 1158.20, up 23.39 points or 2.06%; the energy index NHEI closed at 1118.60, up 25.67 points or 2.35%; the petrochemical index NHPCl closed at 982.80, up 11.40 points or 1.17%; the coal - chemical index NHCCl closed at 1091.10, up 5.38 points or 0.50%; the black raw material index NHFMI closed at 1030.95, up 38.37 points or 3.87%; the building materials index NHBMI closed at 795.35, up 12.17 points or 1.55%; the oil and fat index NHOOl closed at 1200.14, down 5.28 points or 0.44%; the economic crop index NHAECI closed at 889.46, up 15.88 points or 1.82%. [6] - **Ratio Data**: There are various ratio data of different sector indices, such as the ratio of the precious metal index to the comprehensive index, the ratio of the industrial products index to the comprehensive index, etc., and their changes and rankings are also provided. For example, the ratio of the precious metal index to the comprehensive index is 0.458 (current value), up 0.007 from last week. [7] - **Position Data**: The report lists the ranking of the average open interest of futures varieties this week, including soybean meal, rebar, corn, etc. For example, the average open interest of soybean meal this week was 4,509,743 hands, down 1.53% from last week, accounting for 12.09% of the total open interest. [17] 2. Nanhua Sector Index Weekly Data - **Industrial Products Index - Related Data**: There are some data related to the industrial products index, such as the comparison of the industrial products index with other indices and the data of some related varieties. For example, the ratio of the energy and chemical index to the industrial products index is 0.473, unchanged from last week. [7] - **Black Index - Related Data**: The Nanhua black index closed at 2564.15 this week, up 2.79% from last week. The three varieties with the largest contribution are iron ore, coke, and rebar, with their respective closing prices, price changes, and contribution degrees provided. [30] - **Non - Ferrous Metal Index - Related Data**: The Nanhua non - ferrous metal index closed at 1711.01 this week, up 0.47% from last week. The three varieties with the largest contribution are Zhen, tin, and aluminum, with their respective closing prices, price changes, and contribution degrees provided. [32]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, the implied volatility of financial options decreased overall compared to last Friday, and the market declined significantly on Friday. The CSI 1000 fell 1.98%, the SSE 50 fell 1.58%, and the CSI 300 fell 1.52%. However, the overall implied volatility of the options market on Friday decreased slightly compared to Thursday, without a price - volatility divergence, indicating that the bearish sentiment of options market funds towards the subsequent market has decreased [2]. - The overall market trading volume continued to decline this week, from 1.55 trillion at the close last Friday to 1.26 trillion at the close this Friday. With the continuous shrinkage of market volume and the continuous decline of option implied volatility, the possibility of continued market oscillation in the future has increased [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Option Trading Volume and Position - The average daily trading volume of 50ETF options this week was 1.0213 million contracts, a decrease of 20.51% compared to the previous week. The trading volume of put options was lower than that of call options, and the put - call trading ratio was 0.93, which increased compared to the previous week and was higher than the historical average. The put - call position ratio last week was 0.77, which increased compared to the previous week and was lower than the historical average [3]. - The average daily trading volume of Huatai - Berry 300ETF options was 0.9117 million contracts, and the average daily position was 1.3478 million contracts; the average daily trading volume of Southern CSI 500ETF options was 1.2967 million contracts, and the average daily position was 1.1029 million contracts; the average daily trading volume of Huaxia SSE STAR 50ETF options was 0.8897 million contracts, and the average daily position was 1.9668 million contracts; the average daily trading volume of Shenzhen 100ETF options was 0.0449 million contracts, and the average daily position was 0.1095 million contracts; the average daily trading volume of GEM ETF options was 1.0431 million contracts, and the average daily position was 1.3465 million contracts; the average daily trading volume of CSI 300 index options was 0.0668 million lots, and the average daily position was 0.1733 million lots; the average daily trading volume of CSI 1000 index options was 0.1741 million lots, and the average daily position was 0.1875 million lots [3]. Volatility - As of the close this Friday, the implied volatility of CSI 300 index options was 14.15%, a decrease of 0.37% compared to a week ago. The implied volatility of 50ETF options was 13.52%, a decrease of 1.03% compared to a week ago. The implied volatility of CSI 1000 index options was 21.88%, a decrease of 0.74% compared to a week ago. The Nanhua 50ETF option volatility index was 14.26, the Nanhua CSI 300 option volatility index was 15.03, and the Nanhua CSI 1000 option volatility index was 21.87 [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core view is that demand is the main driving force, and the price difference between brands is widening [5]. - Last week, the pulp futures price fluctuated downward, with an increase in open interest and a dominance of short - position increases. The SP2505 main contract dropped 28 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.49%, closing at 5724 yuan/ton. The weekly spot price of domestic softwood pulp decreased, while the price of Shandong Yinxing remained flat at 6500 yuan/ton, and the price of Hebei Russian Needle dropped 75 yuan to 5700 yuan/ton. The price of hardwood pulp Shandong Jinyu remained flat at 4660 yuan/ton [5]. - Suzano announced a price increase of 20 dollars/ton for eucalyptus hardwood pulp Jinyu in Asia and 60 dollars/ton in Europe and the United States in April 2025. The FOB price of Canadian bleached softwood pulp Lion brand in March 2025 increased by 10 dollars/ton: Lion at 820 dollars/ton and Golden Lion at 840 dollars/ton. In February 2025, European chemical pulp consumption was 802,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.91%; the inventory was 746,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.40%. The inventory days were 27 days, an increase of 1 day compared to the same period last year. In February 2025, the total European port inventory decreased by 0.70% compared to January and increased by 24.39% compared to February 2024. In February 2025, the chemical commodity pulp shipments of the world's 20 major pulp - producing countries increased by 0.3% year - on - year, the shipments of softwood pulp to China decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, and the shipments of hardwood pulp to China increased by 9.4% year - on - year [6]. - The pulp price showed a downward trend last week, with the futures main contract reaching a lower low and the price center shifting down. The overall open interest of pulp futures increased, with short - position increases dominant. The 05 main contract reduced positions, while the 07 and 09 contracts increased positions. As April approaches, the main contract is about to change. Based on previous price performances during pulp main contract changes, there is a high probability of a fluctuating trend. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction in the pulp fundamentals is deadlocked. On the supply side, the FOB price continues to rise, increasing the domestic pulp import cost, deepening the import profit inversion, reducing the domestic willingness to import long - term contract pulp, and enhancing the advantage of domestic enterprises' self - made pulp. On the demand side, the overall output of domestic wood - pulp finished paper is stable. The weekly output of tissue paper and offset paper decreased slightly, while the weekly output of white cardboard and coated paper increased slightly. The weekly price of tissue paper jumbo rolls declined, while the weekly prices of other wood - pulp paper types remained flat. The output on the demand side is stable, but there is some pressure on the price of finished paper. Paper traders' inventories are high, and they are pressing down on the purchase price of finished paper. Paper mills are worried about profits and have low enthusiasm for purchasing high - priced raw materials. The domestic pulp port inventory is continuously decreasing but is still at a high level compared to the same period in the past five years, and the inventory reduction speed is slow. Meanwhile, the market's concern about the quality of Russian Needle affects its price to run weakly. The basis of Russian Needle remains stable, the basis of Yinxing strengthens, and the price difference between softwood pulp brands widens. Overall, the market trading is still mainly driven by the demand side, the feedback from the supply - side drive is not obvious, and the supply - demand contradiction is prominent. Attention should be paid to the pulp port inventory reduction speed and the support effect of the Russian Needle basis on the futures price. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Core Viewpoints and Review - Core view: Demand - driven, with a widening price difference between brands [5]. - Market review: Futures price decline, increase in open interest with short - position dominance; changes in spot prices of different pulp types [5]. - Industry performance: Price increases of foreign pulp brands; changes in European pulp consumption, inventory, and world pulp shipments [6]. - Core logic: Downward price trend, changes in open interest and main contract; supply - demand deadlock, with supply - side price increases and demand - side output and price conditions; inventory situation and brand price difference [7]. Weekly Data Review - Futures prices: SP2505, SP2507, and SP2509 all declined, with different decline rates [8]. - FOB prices: The price of softwood pulp (Yinxing) remained flat, while the price of hardwood pulp (Mingxing) increased [8]. - Domestic spot prices: Some softwood pulp prices decreased, and the price of hardwood pulp remained flat [8]. - Domestic finished paper average prices: White cardboard price increased slightly, tissue paper price decreased, and offset paper price increased [8]. - Price differences: The basis of Yinxing strengthened, the monthly spread between 05 - 09 contracts changed, and the softwood - hardwood price difference decreased slightly [9]. - Finished paper output: White cardboard output remained flat, tissue paper and offset paper output decreased slightly [9]. - Finished paper profits: White cardboard and offset paper profits increased, while tissue paper profit decreased significantly [9]. - Inventory: Qingdao port inventory decreased slightly, and Changshu port inventory increased slightly [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View - The urea price will continue to fluctuate, and it is necessary to observe whether the grass - roots demand around the Tomb - Sweeping Festival can exceed expectations. The agricultural demand season has strong speculative nature in the futures market, and the fundamentals are in a gradually balanced supply - demand pattern [5] Summary by Directory Supply - This cycle, some enterprises such as Shandong Union Chemical, Shanxi Lanhua Science & Technology Venture, etc. had maintenance, and some including Shandong Runyin Biological Chemical and Shandong Union Chemical resumed production. Next week, the daily urea output will be around 19.2 - 19.7 million tons [4] Inventory - As of March 26, 2025, the inventory of domestic urea enterprises in China was 867,800 tons, a decrease of 170,200 tons compared with the previous period, and the inventory of major ports was 130,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared with the previous period [4] Demand - In agriculture, the planting of southern rice is progressing, and agricultural demand is slowly following up. In industry, compound fertilizer plants are in the high - nitrogen fertilizer production stage, with relatively good purchases, but high - price raw materials increase the pressure on them, and replenishment is becoming more cautious. Other industrial sectors maintain just - in - time procurement [4][5] Spot - On Sunday this week, the price in Shandong was 1910 (05 basis 17), and in Henan was 1920 (05 basis 27). Recently, the spot trading of urea has been active, and the price has continued to rise. After the price increase, the trading has weakened [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For glass, the production and sales are starting to weaken marginally. The apparent demand for float glass from January to March is expected to decline by 7 - 8%. Although the demand has improved month - on - month, the overall improvement is limited. The supply remains in a low - level fluctuation state, but the cold - repair of production lines in the first quarter was slightly less than expected, and the ignition rhythm was relatively fast. There are still differences in the market's view of long - term demand. In the context of a significant year - on - year decline in supply, there may be a mismatch during the peak season. The 05 contract continues to be a subject of speculation, and the spot price in Hubei is still relatively low. Further observation of production, sales, and spot trends is needed [3]. - For纯碱, the supply is gradually recovering. With the end of major maintenance and the expected mass production of new capacity, the supply of heavy soda ash is expected to shift from balance to surplus. The market is still in a long - term surplus expectation, and the inventory is at a historical high with obvious upward pressure. The downstream is replenishing inventory at low prices, and the willingness to replenish inventory is relatively strong around 1350 - 1400. The rigid demand for heavy soda ash, deduced from the daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass, has improved slightly month - on - month, and the finished product inventory of photovoltaic glass has continued to decline significantly month - on - month. A further decline in price requires continuous inventory accumulation and price cuts by soda ash plants [4][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Supply - The current daily melting volume is 158,000 tons. There are both cold - repairs and ignitions, and the daily melting volume is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level [3]. Inventory - As of March 27, 2025, the total inventory of float glass sample enterprises is 67.012 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 2.448 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 3.52%, and a year - on - year increase of 0.11%. The inventory days are 30.2 days, a decrease of 1.1 days compared with the previous period [95]. Profit - According to Longzhong data, the profits of glass production lines using different processes are as follows: - 192 yuan for natural gas, + 89 yuan for coal - gasification, and - 20 yuan for petroleum coke [3]. Demand - As of March 17, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises is 8 days (an increase of 1.2 days), a month - on - month increase of 17.6%, and a year - on - year decrease of 35.3%. The raw material inventory of glass deep - processing is 8.6 days (an increase of 1.1 days), a month - on - month increase of 14.7%, and a year - on - year decrease of 31.2% [3]. Strategy - Observe the production, sales, and spot price trends of the 05 contract, especially in Hubei where the spot price is relatively low [3]. Soda Ash Supply - The weekly output is 690,200 tons (a month - on - month increase of 37,900 tons), including 321,200 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 16,400 tons) and 369,000 tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 21,500 tons). With the end of major maintenance and the expected mass production of new capacity, the daily output in April may reach a new high [4]. Inventory - The factory inventory of soda ash is 1.63 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 57,800 tons (a decrease of 4,800 tons for light soda ash and a decrease of 53,000 tons for heavy soda ash). The inventory in the delivery warehouse is 427,500 tons (a decrease of 5,000 tons). The total inventory of factory and delivery warehouse is 2.06 million tons, and the inventory is decreasing from a high level [4]. Profit - According to Longzhong data, the theoretical profit of soda ash produced by the combined soda process (per double - ton) is + 212 yuan, and the theoretical profit of soda ash produced by the ammonia - soda process is - 52 yuan/ton [4]. Demand - Due to the rush - installation wave, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is expected to increase, and the finished product inventory of photovoltaic glass has continued to decline significantly month - on - month. The daily melting volume of float glass is fluctuating at a low level. The rigid demand for heavy soda ash, deduced from float and photovoltaic glass, has improved month - on - month, and the inventory of the upper and middle reaches is at a high level [4]. Strategy - The market is in a long - term surplus expectation. Observe whether there is continuous inventory accumulation and price cuts by soda ash plants [5].

南华甲醇产业链数据周报20250330： 震荡对待 戴一帆（Z0015428）张博（F03100606） 周度产业链价格总览： 动力煤：在高库存压制之下，产地、港口市场均面临较大的下行压力。需求端煤炭需求不振，电厂采购低迷，随着南方天气日渐回暖、北方供暖期结 束，采暖负荷对燃煤消耗的支撑力度减弱，在经济缓慢发力的情况下，工业用电拉动作用有限，电煤消费续增的空间不大，预计煤炭市场将将继续延续震 荡下行的走势。 天然气：海外天然气价震荡。 下游化工品：下游单体丙烯下跌20美金。 本周总结 供应：下周久泰、鹤壁煤化等多套甲醇装置计划重启，开工将提升。目前山东下游对高价抵触情绪仍存，继续刚需采购为主，由于供应即将回归，西北 待发逐渐减少，内地上涨乏力。本周国际甲醇装置开工上升，伊朗装置开工逐渐恢复；非伊开工提升，文莱年产85 万吨装置 2 月 18 日附近短停一周；马 来西亚装置回归。 库存：本周港口库存去库；内地去库。 | 期货 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - For MEG, attention should be paid to the intensity of polyester production cuts, and EG valuation is under pressure. The terminal demand for weaving has peaked, and the high - level operation of polyester yarn is expected to decline. Although the supply - demand of ethylene glycol will enter a de - stocking inflection point in April, the price is still expected to be under pressure overall. In the short term, the price is expected to consolidate at a low level, and it is recommended to operate within a range. For bottle chips, as the start - up increases, the supply - demand pattern will weaken, and the processing fee is expected to be under pressure [2][3]. - For PX, the supply - demand structure is good, and it is advisable to cautiously go long on dips. The recent supply - demand pattern of PX is favorable, and the de - stocking trend continues. PXN is around 200, and it is generally recommended to buy at low levels. The driving force for PTA processing fees is limited, and it will maintain range - bound fluctuations [6][7]. - For PTA, it fluctuates with the cost side. The subsequent maintenance plans of PTA are still numerous, and the overall price fluctuates with limited driving force [9][10]. Summary by Related Catalogs MEG - **Inventory**: The inventory at East China ports has reached 76.7 tons, a decrease of 4.3 tons compared to the previous period. The apparent inventory at ports is expected to decrease by about 60,000 tons next Monday [2]. - **Device**: Anhui Haoyuan's 300,000 - ton device has recently reduced its load to replace the catalyst; Sinochem's 300,000 - ton device tripped last weekend and is expected to restart soon. Overseas, a 700,000 - ton device in the US has been shut down for maintenance since mid - March, expected to last until around the end of April [2]. - **Supply**: The overall supply load remains basically stable, with an increase in ethylene - based production at Gulei Petrochemical and a decrease in coal - based production at Haoyuan and a trip at Sinochem. The coal - based load has been adjusted down to around 68% [2]. - **Demand**: The total polyester load has continued to increase to 92.9% with the restart and load increase of bottle chips. However, the negative feedback from the terminal has intensified, and both filament and staple fiber have proposed joint production - cut and price - maintenance plans due to profit and inventory pressures [2]. - **Profit**: Recently, the cost of raw material polymerization has rebounded slightly, but due to weak terminal demand, the price increase of the polyester segment is weak, and the profits of various products have been compressed to varying degrees [2]. PX - **Supply**: Recently, the maintenance of Yangzi, Jiujiang, and Zhejiang Petrochemical has been implemented, and the PX load has decreased. Some disproportionation and other operations at home and abroad are not economically viable, and some device maintenance has been carried out. The maintenance plans of some Korean devices have been extended [6]. - **Demand**: Although some PTA maintenance has resumed, there are still many subsequent maintenance plans [6]. - **Supply - demand Pattern**: The recent supply - demand pattern of PX is good, and the de - stocking trend continues. PXN is around 200, and it is generally recommended to buy at low levels. The driving force for PTA processing fees is limited, and it will maintain range - bound fluctuations [7]. PTA - **Supply**: There are still many subsequent maintenance plans for PTA. In April, Jiayuan, Energy Investment, Baihong, and YS Hainan have maintenance plans; in May, Formosa and Shenghong have maintenance plans; in June, Fuhai Chuang has maintenance plans [9]. - **Demand**: The polyester start - up continues to increase with the load increase of bottle chips, but the negative feedback from the terminal has intensified, and the price increase of the polyester segment is weak [2][9]. - **Price**: The overall price fluctuates with limited driving force [10].