南华期货集运周报 当周期货标的现货指数上海出口结算运价指数（SCFIS）欧洲航线继续下行，美西航线也再度小幅回 落。中国出口集装箱运价指数（CCFI）、上海出口集装箱运价指数（SCFI）和宁波出口集装箱运价指数 （NCFI）均继续下降。 分航线来看，SCFI欧洲航线再度回落，美西航线和美东航线则继续下行。当周期价主要影响因素为欧线 现舱报价。当周主流船司8月现舱报价继续回落，带降了期货价格的估值。商品情绪则受宏观政策影响而有所 回落，同样利空EC的市场情绪。中美关税谈判基本无太多变化，整体对市场情绪影响短期中性略偏多。 对于后市而言，可继续关注船司欧线现舱报价变动和欧线市场基本面。 受美国关税等宏观情绪影响，期价短期维持震荡略偏下行趋势的可能性仍相对较大，但需注意期价至短 期低位后可能的反弹。 2. 策略 期现（基差）策略：交易者宜保持观察，寻找短期做空基差的机会。 —— MSK开舱报价继续下行 2025/08/03 南华研究院投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 俞俊臣（Z0021065） 1. 摘要 套利（跨期）策略：可暂时保持观望。 3. 盘面回顾 截至周五，EC各月合约的收盘价与结算价均有 ...

| 发的中下游投机补库令淡季需求表现为"淡季不淡"，钢厂在手订单尚可；但涨价后出口新单显著萎缩、海外需 | | --- | | 求窗口暂未打开，前期中游囤积库存的消化依赖终端需求实际承接能力，同时电炉利润大幅改善加剧钢材边 | | 际供应压力。综合而言，支撑近期上涨的利多驱动减弱，市场回归基本面主导，而下游终端需求尚未打开上 | | 行空间，短期缺乏明确向上驱动；不过煤矿超产检查趋严及后续阅兵限产因素仍存，钢材需求有待验证，市 | | 场抛压不大，"反内卷"预期虽弱化但未消失，因此盘面虽有回调压力且短期走势偏空，但预计难回落至前期低 | | 点。 | 南华期货钢材（螺纹钢、热卷）周报 ----乐观情绪降温 2025/08/02 严志妮 投资咨询证号：Z0022076 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 周报核心观点 周度盘面回顾：本周在政治局会议结束后，市场对于反内卷的预期乐观情绪出现回落，叠加特朗普称8月1日 关税最后期限不会延长，周五晚上非农数据大幅下修，再度引发市场对美国衰退预期的担忧，产业面上本周 钢联表需数据不及预期，在上述利空影响下，盘面出现下跌。 产业表现：供应端，本周铁水产量出现 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Old - crop apples have low inventory, but their consumption is affected by the listing of seasonal fruits. New - season early - maturing apples had a higher average opening price than last year, but the price declined significantly in August. The recent price increase in the futures market was due to an agricultural product sales document, but since the impact on apples was limited, the futures price quickly fell after the initial increase [3]. - The futures price is expected to fall further and may drop below 7700 [4]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Market Information - **Production Area**: The sales of late - Fuji apples are slow, and prices are stable with a slight downward trend. There is limited enthusiasm among merchants to purchase. In the west, the inventory is low, and price polarization is obvious. In Shandong, merchants are trying to lower prices when purchasing, and some fruit farmers are eager to sell. For new - season early - maturing apples, the supply of early - ripening Qinyang is running out, and prices are decreasing after an initial high. Paper - bag Gala apples are starting to be available in some areas, but there are problems with slow color development and greening after bag removal [1]. - **Sales Area**: The number of trucks arriving at the three major markets in Guangdong has increased slightly compared to the previous week. Actual transactions are priced according to quality. The low - priced seasonal fruits are selling well, which is affecting the sales of apples. The terminal consumption has slowed down slightly, and second - and third - level wholesalers are purchasing as needed, with no obvious backlog in transit warehouses [1]. - **Inventory**: As of July 30, according to Steel Union data, the national cold - storage inventory was 61.61 tons, a decrease of 8.84 tons compared to the previous week, and the sales speed slowed down slightly. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 10.10%, a decrease of 1.02%, and in Shaanxi it was 2.91%, a decrease of 0.74%. According to Zhuochuang data, the national cold - storage inventory was 57.61 tons, a decrease of 7.2 tons, the storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 7.15%, a decrease of 0.87%, and in Shaanxi it was 4.01%, a decrease of 0.52% [1]. Market Analysis - Old - crop apples have low inventory, but their consumption is affected by seasonal fruits. Although the consumption speed is better than last week, it has been poor recently. New - season early - maturing apples had a higher average opening price than last year, but the price has dropped significantly since August. The recent sharp increase in the futures market was due to an agricultural product sales document, but since the impact on apples was limited, the futures price quickly fell after the initial increase [3]. Futures Price Analysis - The recent trend of the futures price has continued to decline, and it may fall below 7700 [4]. Market Attention Points - Cold - storage出库情况, production area weather conditions, opening price and transaction volume of early - maturing apples [5]. Price Changes | Contract | 2025 - 08 - 04 Closing Price | Change Rate | 2025 - 08 - 01 Price | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | AP01 | 7685 | - 2.66% | Qixia first - and second - grade 80: 3.8 | - 3.8% | | AP03 | 7674 | - 1.79% | Luochuan semi - commercial 70: 4.5 | - 6.25% | | AP04 | 7707 | - 1.35% | Jingning paper - bag 75: 5.6 | - 6.67% | | AP05 | 7800 | - 1.35% | Yiyuan paper - bag 70: 2.3 | 0% | | AP10 | 7758 | - 3.65% | Wanrong paper - plus - film 75: 2.8 | 0% | | AP11 | 7575 | - 2.76% | Futures profit: - 791 | - 20.98% | | AP12 | 7643 | - 2.2% | Theoretical delivery price: 8600 | 0% | | AP01 - 05 | - 115 | 858.33% | Main contract basis: 809 | 35.06% | | AP05 - 10 | 42 | - 128.97% | Warehouse receipts: 0 | 0 | | AP10 - 01 | 73 | - 53.5% | Warehouse receipts + valid forecasts: 0 | - 1 | [7] Yield Forecast - Based on bagging data, it is estimated that the national apple production in the 2025/26 season will increase by 2.35% to 3736.64 tons. Shaanxi's production will increase by 7.57% to 878.84 tons, Shandong's will decrease by 9.89% to 782.37 tons, Gansu's will increase by 2.18% to 379.15 tons, Henan's will increase by 21.09% to 274.28 tons, and Shaanxi (repeated mention, assume it's a different area) will increase by 28.39% to 352.19 tons [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Last week, crude oil showed a trend of rising first and then falling. Trump's extreme pressure on Russia triggered supply concerns and pushed up the geopolitical premium, but the implementation of subsequent measures remains to be observed. In the second half, due to the over - rise correction of the market, the non - farm payrolls data in the US falling short of expectations and the downward revision of the previous value, the fear of economic recession reignited, the VIX index soared, and the capital flight impacted the market, leading to the decline of crude oil. The result of the OPEC+ meeting was in line with expectations. It will increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September and end the first - stage production restoration ahead of schedule. The subsequent policy will be discussed at the meeting on September 7. Recently, attention should be paid to the macro - sentiment, tracking the VIX index and the US stocks [4] Market Trends - OPEC+ agreed to continue significant production increases in September and exit the current round of production cuts one year ahead of schedule. Eight member countries of OPEC+ reached a resolution to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September through a video conference, marking that the organization completed the current - stage supply restoration plan one year ahead of schedule and fully exited the 2.2 million barrels per day production cut agreement implemented by eight member countries since 2023, including the UAE's additional phased production increase quota. Another voluntary production cut agreement of about 1.66 million barrels per day will be re - evaluated by the end of December. This production increase marks a strategic shift of OPEC and its partners from defending oil prices to releasing production capacity, effectively suppressing the impact of geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand peaks on oil prices [4] - As the oil prices in the Middle East rise, Asia will increase its imports of US WTI crude oil in the fourth quarter. Due to the strong demand for high - sulfur crude oil in Asia, the prices of Dubai crude oil and Murban crude oil, the benchmark prices of Middle Eastern crude oil, have risen this month, narrowing the price difference with the low - sulfur light US WTI crude oil. The WTI arbitrage window for Asia has been wide open in the past week, especially for ships arriving in early November. US crude oil producer Occidental Petroleum has sold WTI crude oil to Japanese refiner Taiyo Oil at a premium of about $3.50 per barrel over the October Dubai crude oil quote for delivery in October [5] - The Iranian foreign minister stated that the US needs to compensate for the losses in the conflict before the nuclear negotiations can restart. Iran has set new conditions for restarting the nuclear negotiations with the Trump administration. The US must compensate Iran for the losses caused during the Iran - Israel conflict last month. Iran will not agree to resume negotiations without addressing these issues [5] - The annual rate of the US core PCE price index in June was 2.8%, higher than the expected 2.70%, and the previous value was revised from 2.70% to 2.8%. The monthly rate of the core PCE price index in June was 0.3%, in line with expectations and higher than the previous value of 0.20%. The overall PCE index including food and energy rose 0.3% month - on - month and 2.6% year - on - year, respectively higher than the market expectations of 0.23% and 2.5%. The personal consumption expenditure price index rose 0.3% month - on - month, pushing the annual rate to 2.6%, the highest level since February. Weak spending is due to the cooling of the labor market. Real disposable income remained flat after falling in May, and wages and salaries hardly increased. The July employment report is expected to show a continued slowdown in recruitment and a slight rise in the unemployment rate. The savings rate remained at 4.5%. After the data was released, the spot gold fluctuated slightly in the short term, and the US dollar index rose slightly in the short term [6] - The total number of US oil rigs in the week ending August 1 was 410, compared with 415 in the previous week. As of the week ending July 29, speculators' net long positions in Brent crude oil on the Intercontinental Exchange increased by 33,959 lots to 261,352 lots. In the week ending July 29, speculators' net long positions in NYMEX WTI crude oil increased by 1,752 lots to 87,840 lots [7] EIA Weekly Inventory - As of the week ending July 25, the total US crude oil inventory including strategic reserves was 829.432 million barrels, an increase of 7.94 million barrels from the previous week; the US commercial crude oil inventory was 426.691 million barrels, an increase of 7.7 million barrels from the previous week; the total US gasoline inventory was 228.405 million barrels, a decrease of 2.73 million barrels from the previous week; the distillate oil inventory was 113.536 million barrels, an increase of 3.64 million barrels from the previous week. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, was 22.553 million barrels, an increase of 0.69 million barrels. The US strategic petroleum reserve was 402.741 million barrels, an increase of 0.24 million barrels. The crude oil inventory was 1.47% lower than the same period last year and 6% lower than the average of the past five years; the gasoline inventory was 2.08% higher than the same period last year and 1% lower than the average of the past five years; the distillate oil inventory was 10.49% lower than the same period last year and 16% lower than the average of the past five years [8] - As of the week ending July 25, the US daily crude oil production was 13.314 million barrels, an increase of 41,000 barrels from the previous week and an increase of 14,000 barrels from the same period last year; the total processing volume of US refineries was 16.911 million barrels per day on average, a decrease of 25,000 barrels from the previous week; the refinery utilization rate was 95.4%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous week [8] - The increase in the US EIA crude oil inventory in the week ending July 25 was the largest since the week ending January 31, 2025. The decrease in the US EIA gasoline inventory in the week ending July 25 was the largest since the week ending April 25, 2025. The increase in domestic crude oil production in the week ending July 25 was the largest since the week ending March 7, 2025 [9]

金融期货早评 宏观：国内政策仍将积极有为 【市场资讯】1）美国 7 月非农新增就业 7.3 万远低于预期，前两月数据大幅下修 25.8 万； 7 月失业率回升至 4.2%，符合预期，前值 4.1%；时薪同比涨幅从上修后的 3.8%上涨至 3.9%。 美联储官员：就业市场风险可能增加，还没准备提高降息预期。"新美联储通讯社"：非农 就业降温为 9 月降息打开大门，尽管通胀仍令人担忧。2）美国 7 月 ISM 制造业 PMI 48， 创九个月最快萎缩，就业指数创五年多最低。3）特朗普：若不降息，美联储理事会应"接 手掌管"。美联储理事库格勒辞职，特朗普兴奋不已，有望提前插手利率决策、布局鲍威尔 接班人。4）非农数据疲软，特朗普甩锅：拜登任命的官员编制，罢免统计局局长；引发市 场对数据完整性担忧。5）特朗普 2.0 时期首次对俄罗斯军事威胁，称下令将两艘美军核潜 艇部署至相应区域。6）老百姓买国债的利息免税标准：每月不超过 10 万。7）"2025 暑期 档电影总票房突破 70 亿，单日票房创新高。8）欧佩克+同意 9 月增产 54.7 万桶/日，消息 称下月会议或再考虑增产。9）美国贸易代表格里尔：新一轮关税"基 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report - Date: August 4, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Nonferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The decline in copper prices during the week was mainly due to the adjustment of the US copper tariff policy. Trump announced a 50% import tariff on copper tubes, pipe fittings, and other semi - finished copper products from this Friday, and extended it to copper - intensive finished products. However, core upstream products were excluded. The price of SHFE copper is still closely linked to LME copper, and weak downstream demand is expected to emerge this week. The price difference between COMEX copper and LME, SHFE copper will fluctuate and is expected to balance in the next 2 trading days. The high copper inventory in the COMEX market may not flow out, but the short - term US market cannot digest it, which affects the price difference between LME and COMEX [3] Key Points from Different Sections Copper Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest copper price is 78,400 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2] - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, it is recommended to sell 75% of SHFE copper main - contract futures at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of call options (CU2509C82000) when volatility is relatively stable. For raw - material management with low raw - material inventory, it is recommended to buy 75% of SHFE copper main - contract futures at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2] Market Factors Bullish Factors - Readjustment of the US tariff policy [4] - Decline of the US dollar index due to employment data [6] - Obvious downward support [6] Bearish Factors - Repeated tariff policies [6] - Decrease in global demand due to tariff policies [6] - Excessively high COMEX inventory caused by the US copper tariff policy adjustment [6] Copper Futures and Spot Data Futures Data - The latest price of SHFE copper main contract is 78,400 yuan/ton with no daily change. SHFE copper continuous - first contract is 78,400 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan (0.46%), and SHFE copper continuous - third contract is 78,330 yuan/ton with no daily change. The price of LME copper 3M is 9,633 dollars/ton, up 26 dollars (0.27%), and the SHFE - LME ratio is 8.21, up 0.06 (0.74%) [2][5][7] Spot Data - The latest prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumaom, Guangdong Nanchu, and Yangtze Non - ferrous are 78,330 yuan/ton, 78,325 yuan/ton, 78,160 yuan/ton, and 78,460 yuan/ton respectively, with daily declines of 0.3%, 0.27%, 0.31%, and 0.28%. The changes in the corresponding spot premium/discount also vary [9] Copper Scrap - Refined Spread - The current refined - scrap spread (tax - included) is 805.43 yuan/ton, down 38.61 yuan (- 4.57%); the reasonable refined - scrap spread (tax - included) is 1484.65 yuan/ton, down 1.45 yuan (- 0.1%). Similar changes are seen in the non - tax - included spreads [12] Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventories Warehouse Receipts - The total SHFE copper warehouse receipts are 20,349 tons, up 727 tons (3.71%); the total international copper warehouse receipts are 1,553 tons, down 1,760 tons (- 53.12%) [15] Inventories - The total LME copper inventory is 141,750 tons, up 3,550 tons (2.57%); the total COMEX copper inventory is 259,681 tons, up 11,046 tons (4.44%) [17][20] Copper Import Profit and Processing Fees - The copper import profit is - 249.88 yuan/ton, down 87.93 yuan (54.29%); the copper concentrate TC is - 42 dollars/ton, up 0.5 dollars (- 1.18%) [21]

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: August 4, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Group 2: Price and Volatility - Latest Closing Price of Tin: 264,950 yuan/ton [2] - Monthly Price Range Forecast: 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton [2] - Current Volatility: 14.36% [2] - Current Volatility Historical Percentile: 26.1% [2] Group 3: Risk Management Recommendations Inventory Management - Situation: High finished - product inventory, worried about price decline [2] - Strategy: Short Shanghai Tin main futures contract (75% at around 275,000 yuan/ton) and sell call options (SN2509C275000, 25% when volatility is appropriate) [2] Raw Material Management - Situation: Low raw material inventory, worried about price increase [2] - Strategy: Long Shanghai Tin main futures contract (50% at around 230,000 yuan/ton) and sell put options (SN2509P245000, 25% when volatility is appropriate) [2] Group 4: Core Viewpoint - Tin price declined slightly during the week as expected due to limited macro - impact [3] - Myanmar's tin mine mining licenses are mostly approved, expected to resume work in late August, which is a major factor for tin fundamentals but unlikely to affect short - term supply - demand [3] - If Myanmar's resumption is below expectations again, previous negative factors may turn into short - term positives [3] - Tin price may fluctuate in the next week, and supply - side topics still have room for speculation [3] Group 5: Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - Easing of Sino - US tariff policies [4] - Semiconductor sector is still in an expansion cycle [4] - Myanmar's production resumption is below expectations [4] Bearish Factors - Tariff policy reversals [5] - Myanmar's tin ore flowing into China [5] - Slowdown of semiconductor sector expansion and transition from expansion to contraction cycle [5] Group 6: Futures Market Data | Contract | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Tin Main | yuan/ton | 264,950 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Tin Continuous 1 | yuan/ton | 264,950 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Tin Continuous 3 | yuan/ton | 265,220 | 0 | 0% | | LME Tin 3M | US dollars/ton | 33,215 | 530 | 1.62% | | Shanghai - London Ratio | Ratio | 8.12 | 0.1 | 1.25% | [6] Group 7: Spot Market Data | Item | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Tin Ingot | yuan/ton | 264,600 | - 6,500 | - 2.4% | | 1 Tin Premium | yuan/ton | 500 | - 200 | - 28.57% | | 40% Tin Concentrate | yuan/ton | 252,600 | - 6,500 | - 2.51% | | 60% Tin Concentrate | yuan/ton | 256,600 | - 6,500 | - 2.47% | | Solder Bar (60A) Shanghai Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 172,250 | - 3,500 | - 1.99% | | Solder Bar (63A) Shanghai Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 179,750 | - 3,500 | - 1.91% | | Lead - free Solder | yuan/ton | 270,750 | - 6,500 | - 2.34% | [11] Group 8: Inventory Data | Item | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Futures Exchange Tin Warehouse Receipt (Total) | tons | 7,286 | - 143 | - 1.92% | | Shanghai Futures Exchange Tin Warehouse Receipt (Guangdong) | tons | 4,853 | 22 | 0.46% | | Shanghai Futures Exchange Tin Warehouse Receipt (Shanghai) | tons | 1,562 | - 165 | - 9.55% | | LME Tin Inventory (Total) | tons | 1,855 | 35 | 1.92% | [19] Group 9: Other Data | Item | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Tin Import Profit and Loss | yuan/ton | - 14,300.05 | 1,473.25 | - 9.34% | | 40% Tin Ore Processing Fee | yuan/ton | 12,200 | 0 | 0% | | 60% Tin Ore Processing Fee | yuan/ton | 10,050 | - 500 | - 4.74% | [20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the Nanhua Comprehensive Index dropped 63.9 points, a decline of -2.46%. The most influential varieties were glass and soda ash, with the glass variety index falling -19.09% and contributing -0.45%, and the soda ash variety index falling -12.78% and contributing -0.41% [1][2]. - The Nanhua Industrial Products Index decreased by 143.52 points, a -3.75% decline. The most influential varieties were glass and coke, with the glass variety index contributing -0.58% and the coke variety index contributing -0.57% [1][2]. - The Nanhua Metal Index declined by 231.92 points, a -3.52% drop. The most influential variety was rebar, contributing -0.83% [1][2]. - The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index fell 74.12 points, a -4.15% decline. The most influential variety was glass, contributing -0.86% [2]. - The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index decreased by 11.57 points, a -1.05% decline. The most influential variety was live pigs, contributing -0.35% [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Data Overview | Index Name | This Week's Closing | Last Week's Closing | Change in Points | Change Rate | This Week's Maximum | This Week's Minimum | Volatility | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Comprehensive Index NHCI | 2532.30 | 2596.21 | -63.90 | -2.46% | 2596.21 | 2532.30 | 63.90 | | Precious Metals Index NHPMI | 1233.23 | 1265.35 | -32.12 | -2.54% | 1265.35 | 1233.23 | 32.12 | | Industrial Products Index NHII | 3680.14 | 3823.66 | -143.52 | -3.75% | 3823.66 | 3680.14 | 143.52 | | Metal Index NHMI | 6362.56 | 6594.47 | -231.92 | -3.52% | 6594.47 | 6358.30 | 236.18 | | Energy and Chemical Index NHECI | 1713.91 | 1788.03 | -74.12 | -4.15% | 1788.03 | 1713.91 | 74.12 | | Non - ferrous Metals Index NHNFI | 1676.07 | 1734.53 | -58.46 | -3.37% | 1734.53 | 1676.07 | 58.46 | | Black Index NHFI | 2551.46 | 2683.73 | -132.27 | -4.93% | 2683.73 | 2551.46 | 132.27 | | Agricultural Products Index NHAI | 1090.74 | 1102.32 | -11.57 | -1.05% | 1102.32 | 1090.74 | 11.57 | | Nanhua Comprehensive Index NHCIMi | 1201.10 | 1214.44 | -13.33 | -1.10% | 1214.44 | 1191.96 | 22.48 | | Energy Index NHEI | 1112.54 | 1115.74 | -3.20 | -0.29% | 1128.64 | 1085.19 | 43.45 | | Petrochemical Index NHPCI | 958.73 | 986.16 | -27.44 | -2.78% | 986.16 | 958.73 | 27.44 | | Forestry and Industry Index NHCCI | 1046.71 | 1093.43 | -46.72 | -4.27% | 1093.43 | 1046.71 | 46.72 | | Black Raw Materials Index NHFMI | 1043.56 | 1105.10 | -61.54 | -5.57% | 1105.10 | 1043.56 | 61.54 | | Building Materials Index NHBMI | 769.05 | 832.71 | -63.66 | -7.64% | 832.71 | 769.05 | 63.66 | | Oilseeds Index HOOl | 1238.59 | 1236.73 | 1.87 | 0.15% | 1244.38 | 1229.85 | 14.54 | | Economic Crops Index NHAECI | 886.36 | 913.12 | -26.76 | -2.93% | 913.12 | 886.36 | 26.76 | [3] 3.2. Nanhua Variety Index Arbitrage Data - The report provides data on the ratio of various Nanhua variety indices, including the current value, previous value, change, and ranking. For example, the ratio of the precious metals index to the comprehensive index is 0.487, with a change of -0.000384339 and a ranking of 0.790 [6]. 3.3. Contribution of Each Variety's Daily Fluctuation to the Index Fluctuation - The report presents the average weekly open interest, month - on - month increase, and open interest ratio of various futures varieties. For instance, the average weekly open interest of soybean meal is 4,759,408 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of -1.56% and an open interest ratio of 12.45% [8]. 3.4. Weekly Data of Nanhua's Sector Indices - **Nanhua Industrial Products Index**: Closed at 3680.14 this week, down 3.75% from last week. The top six contributing varieties were glass, coke, soda ash, rebar, natural rubber, and alumina [10]. - **Nanhua Metal Index**: Closed at 6362.56 this week, down 3.52% from last week. The top three contributing varieties were rebar, lithium carbonate, and alumina [10]. - **Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index**: Closed at 1713.91 this week, down 4.15% from last week. The top three contributing varieties were glass, coke, and soda ash [10]. - **Nanhua Agricultural Products Index**: Closed at 1090.74 this week, down 1.05% from last week. The top three contributing varieties were live pigs, cotton, and apples [10]. - **Nanhua Black Index**: Closed at 2551.46 this week, down 4.93% from last week. The top three contributing varieties were coke, rebar, and iron ore [11]. - **Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index**: Closed at 1676.07 this week, down 3.37% from last week. The top two contributing varieties were lithium carbonate and alumina [13].

Group 1: Market Performance Summary - The Nanhua Composite Index declined by -0.19% based on the closing prices of adjacent trading days [1]. - Among the sector indices, only the Nanhua Metal Index rose by 0.07%, while the rest declined. The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index had the largest decline of -0.68%, and the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index had the smallest decline of -0.02% [1][2]. - In the theme indices, the Oilseeds and Oils Index had the largest increase of 0.27%, and the Mini Composite Index had the smallest increase of 0.03%. The Energy Index had the largest decline of -0.73%, and the Black Raw Materials Index had the smallest decline of -0.04% [1][2]. - Among the single - variety commodity futures indices, the jujube index rose by 2.1%, and the coking coal index had the largest decline of -5.38% [2]. Group 2: Index Data Details - Various index data including today's closing price, previous closing price, annualized return, annualized volatility are presented, such as the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index (NHAl), Mini Composite Index (NHClM), etc. [2] Group 3: Industry Chain and Single - Variety Index Changes - The single - variety index daily changes and industry chain diagrams of the energy and chemical, black, and agricultural product sectors are provided. For example, in the energy and chemical sector, glass declined by -1.34%, and in the agricultural product sector, palm oil rose by 0.11% [2][8]

Report Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook on the market [1][3][5] Core Viewpoints - The recent decline in the market is a technical adjustment due to delivery and position - limit measures, not the end of the anti - involution theme market, with a relatively large adjustment amplitude. The market is expected to be short - term bearish and long - term bullish [3][5] - The feed sector is expected to be bullish [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Week Market Data Overview - Anti - involution varieties fluctuated sharply last week. Due to concentrated capital inflows and slow position transfers of the main contracts, the exchange introduced position - limit measures, leading to a sharp decline in the main contracts as liquidity suddenly flowed out. The 09 contracts of glass, soda ash, and coking coal led the decline. However, the anti - involution theme is a long - term policy strategy. Although some varieties have high inventories, the probability of prices falling back to the June lows is extremely low. The market recognizes the anti - involution policy, but the high positions in the near - term contracts forced the exchange to take measures to resolve potential delivery risks. Additionally, soybean meal has deviated from the decline of US soybeans recently [4] Market Data Tables - **Plate Capital Flow**: The total capital outflow was 21.902 billion yuan. Among them, the precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black metals, energy, chemicals, feed and breeding, and soft commodities sectors all had capital outflows, while the oil and fat sector had a capital inflow of 646 million yuan [8] - **Black and Non - ferrous Weekly Data**: The table shows the price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis of various black and non - ferrous varieties, such as iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, etc. For example, the price percentile of iron ore is 18.7%, and the inventory percentile is 42.6% [8] - **Energy and Chemical Weekly Data**: The table presents the price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis of energy and chemical varieties, including fuel oil, low - sulfur oil, asphalt, etc. For instance, the price percentile of fuel oil is 7.9%, and the inventory percentile is 43.7% [10] - **Agricultural Product Weekly Data**: The table shows the price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis of agricultural products, such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, etc. For example, the price percentile of soybean meal is 3.4%, and the inventory percentile is 32.0% [11]