Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - MEG: After the "anti - involution" premium is squeezed out, the price is expected to fluctuate within a range based on the fundamentals. In the third quarter, the inventory accumulation is small, and there is limited downward space due to low inventory [1][2][3] - PX - TA: It is advisable to go long on expanding TA processing fees at low prices. Although the short - term supply and demand of PX - TA have little contradiction, the current TA processing fees are at a historical low, and there are many future maintenance expectations [4][5][6] Group 3: Summaries According to Catalogs MEG - **Inventory**: The inventory at East China ports decreased to 52.1 tons, a decrease of 1.2 tons compared to the previous period. The expected inventory accumulation at ports next Monday is limited [1][2] - **Device**: Tongliao Jinmei stopped production due to an accident, and Zhonghuaxin restarted at a low load. Overseas, 4 sets of 2.15 million - ton capacity devices in Saudi Arabia that were temporarily shut down have restarted at a low load [1] - **Supply**: The total load increased to 69% (+0.65%), with the coal - based load rising to 75% (+0.64%). The profit of each route was significantly compressed [2] - **Demand**: The load of filament and staple fiber decreased slightly, and the polyester load dropped to 88.1% (-0.6%). The processing profit of polyester products has been repaired, and there is an expectation of an increase in filament load in the future [2] PX - TA - **PX** - **Device**: After Sheng Hong's PX device malfunction, it increased its load, and Sinochem slightly reduced its load. The overall load increased to 81.1% (+1.2%). Attention should be paid to the restart progress of Weilian [4] - **Profit**: The cost of naphtha has increased significantly, the profit of the PX link has been compressed, PXN has been compressed to 247 (-45), and PX - MX has been repaired to 110 (-19) [4][5] - **PTA** - **Device**: There have been successive load reductions and overhauls, and the load has dropped to 75.3% (-4.6%). Sanfangxiang's new device has successfully produced products [5] - **Inventory**: The inventory reduction trend has slowed down, and the social inventory has slightly increased to 2.25 million tons (+3) [5] - **Profit**: The overall industrial chain profit has been compressed to a low level, and the TA cash - flow processing fee has been compressed to 154 (-26) [5] - **Demand**: Similar to MEG, the polyester load has decreased, but there is an expectation of an increase in filament load in the future [5] Polyester - **Supply**: The overall polyester load decreased to 88.1% (-0.6%), with the filament load dropping to 90.5% (-0.8%) and the staple fiber load to 90.3% (-0.3%) [10] - **Profit**: The processing profit of polyester products has been significantly repaired, such as POY's profit increasing from - 114 to 110 yuan/ton [10] - **Inventory**: The inventory pressure of filament products has slightly increased, and the inventory days of POY, FDY, and DTY have all increased [10] - **Production and Sales**: The production and sales of filament are light, with the production - sales ratio dropping to 30.8% (-29.3%) [10] Downstream of Polyester - **Weaving**: The loom load has slightly increased, and the number of weaving orders has increased by 0.4 days. However, the actual orders at the terminal have not improved yet [2][5] - **Spinning Mill**: The spinning mill load remains stable, and the inventory of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn shows no significant change [134] - **Terminal Macro**: The production of cloth and yarn, the retail sales of clothing, and the production of soft drinks all show certain seasonal characteristics [144][145][146] - **Textile Export**: The export quantity and value indexes of the textile and textile - clothing industries show different trends, and the export delivery value also has corresponding changes [148][149][152]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The decline in copper prices during the week was mainly due to the adjustment of the US copper tariff policy. The US will impose a 50% import tariff on copper tubes, copper fittings, and other semi - finished copper products from this Friday, and expand it to a large number of copper - using finished products such as cables and electrical components. However, the tariff does not cover raw materials. [2] - The price of SHFE copper is still closely linked to LME copper. The weakness in downstream demand is expected to become apparent this week. [2] - The price of SHFE copper is expected to decline slightly, with a weekly price range of 77,700 - 78,500 yuan per ton. [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Copper Futures Market - **Price and Volume Data**: The latest price of SHFE copper main contract was 78,400 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.76%. The international copper was at 69,530 yuan/ton, down 0.73%. LME copper 3 - month was at 9,633, down 1.66%, and COMEX copper was at 444.3, down 23.45%. [4] 2. Copper Spot Market - **Spot Price and Premium**: The spot prices of various copper products in Shanghai, Guangdong, and other places all declined. For example, the price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper was 78,330 yuan/ton, down 1.41%. The premiums of different regions showed different degrees of change, with the Shanghai Non - ferrous premium rising by 40% to 175 yuan/ton. [7] 3. Copper Advanced Data - **Advanced Indicators**: The copper import loss narrowed to - 249.88 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week change of - 48.21%. The copper - to - aluminum ratio decreased to 3.8095, down 0.45%. The refined - scrap copper price difference dropped to 805.43 yuan/ton, down 4.2%. [8] 4. Copper Inventory - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE copper inventory decreased to 72,543 tons, down 1.2%. LME copper inventory increased to 141,750 tons, up 10.33%. COMEX copper inventory rose to 259,681 tons, up 4.44%. [13] 5. Copper Mid - stream Production - **Monthly Output**: In June 2025, the monthly output of refined copper was 1.302 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 14.2%. The monthly output of copper products was 2.214 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. [17] 6. Copper Mid - stream Capacity Utilization - **Capacity Utilization Rates**: In June 2025, the capacity utilization rate of refined copper rods was 62.32%, that of scrap copper rods was 32.01%, that of copper strips was 68.73%, that of copper bars was 51.52%, and that of copper tubes was 72.25%. [20] 7. Copper Element Imports - **Monthly Import Data**: In June 2025, the import of copper concentrates was 2.34969 million tons, up 2% year - on - year; the import of anode copper was 68,548 tons, up 2% year - on - year; the import of cathode copper was 300,506 tons, up 5% year - on - year; the import of scrap copper was 183,244 tons, up 8% year - on - year; and the import of copper products was 460,000 tons, up 6.5% year - on - year. [24]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The tin price showed a slight decline and is expected to mainly fluctuate in the future. The weekly operating range is estimated to be between RMB 261,000 and RMB 268,000 per ton [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Disk Review - The main futures contract of Shanghai tin rose and then fell during the week, closing at RMB 264,000 per ton, with a spot premium of RMB 700 per ton on the Shanghai Metal Market. The inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased slightly, and the LME inventory stopped falling. Tin imports continued to incur losses, and the processing fee for 40% tin ore remained stable [1] - The weekly decline of the main Shanghai tin futures contract was 1.09%, the main contract of Shanghai tin continuous one decreased by 1.09%, the main contract of Shanghai tin continuous three dropped by 1.02%, and the LME tin 3M decreased by 2.71%. The Shanghai-London ratio increased by 3.31% [3] 2. Industry Performance - According to the latest report of Indonesian tin miner PT Timah, its refined tin production in the first half of this year decreased by 29% year-on-year to 6,870 tons, and its sales volume decreased by 28% year-on-year to 5,983 tons. The average selling price of refined tin increased by 8% year-on-year to $32,816 per ton [1] 3. Core Logic - The decline of tin price during the week was in line with expectations as the macro - impact was limited. On the supply side, the mining licenses for tin mines in Myanmar have been basically reviewed, and it is expected to resume work officially in late August at the earliest, which will have the greatest impact on the tin fundamentals but will not affect short - term supply and demand much. If the resumption of work in Myanmar falls short of expectations again, the previous negative factors may turn into short - term positive factors. In the next week, the tin price may still mainly fluctuate, and there is still room for speculation on supply - side topics [1] 4. Other Data - The loss of tin imports was RMB 14,300.05 per ton, a decrease of 33.45%. The processing fee for 40% tin ore remained unchanged at RMB 12,200 per ton, and the processing fee for 60% tin ore decreased by 4.74% to RMB 10,050 per ton [7] - The total Shanghai tin warehouse receipts increased by 2.26% to 7,286 tons, the Shanghai tin inventory increased by 3.76% to 7,417 tons, the LME tin registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 1,415 tons, and the LME tin cancelled warehouse receipts increased by 64.62% to 535 tons. The LME tin inventory increased by 8.16% to 1,855 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 1.13% to 9,644 tons [10][12] - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots decreased by 2.4% to RMB 264,600 per ton, the 1 tin premium decreased by 28.57% to RMB 500 per ton, the price of 40% tin concentrate decreased by 2.51% to RMB 252,600 per ton, the price of 60% tin concentrate decreased by 2.47% to RMB 256,600 per ton, the price of 60A solder bar decreased by 1.99% to RMB 172,250 per ton, the price of 63A solder bar decreased by 1.91% to RMB 179,750 per ton, and the price of lead - free solder decreased by 2.34% to RMB 270,750 per ton [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week, zinc prices showed weak performance, influenced by the fading anti - price - cutting sentiment, and returned to the pre - anti - price - cutting sentiment trading range. In the short term, due to the fading anti - low - price competition sentiment, zinc prices will experience weak fluctuations, and overall, it is advisable to sell on rallies. The overall view is that zinc prices will mainly fluctuate [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - Zinc prices were weak this week, with the Shanghai Zinc main contract closing at 22,320 yuan per ton, down 2.85%; LME zinc closed at 2,727 dollars per ton, down 4.72%. Domestic seven - location zinc ingot inventory reached 103,200 tons, still at a low level in recent years; LME zinc inventory decreased to 100,825 tons. This week, 68,700 tons of zinc concentrates arrived at the port [2][4]. 2. Industrial Performance - Nexa announced that the first phase of its Cerro Pasco integration project has completed key milestones. The second phase is progressing as planned, which is expected to extend the lifespan of two mines by over ten years and increase profit margins. The procurement and installation of the fourth tailings filter at Aripuanã are expected to be completed in the second half of 2025, and full - scale production is expected to start in the first half of 2026. In Q2 2025, the company's zinc concentrate production reached 74,000 metal tons, a 9% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 12% decrease year - on - year. In the second quarter, the total sales volume of refined zinc and zinc oxide reached 145,000 tons, a 12% increase from the previous quarter, and the total output was 139,000 tons, a 5% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 9% decrease year - on - year, in line with the annual sales guidance of 560,000 - 590,000 tons [3]. 3. Core Logic - **Supply Side**: There were no significant changes in the supply side this week. In the mining sector, zinc ore imports declined in June, but domestic zinc ore supply remained strong both year - on - year and month - on - month. In the smelting sector, the smelter's operating rate remained strong, with a strong willingness to resume production. The treatment charge (TC) continued to rise, and profit recovery was stable [4]. - **Demand Side**: The downstream operating rate mainly decreased week - on - week, affected by the off - season of consumption and the high zinc prices at the beginning of the week, showing a weak performance [4]. - **Inventory**: Affected by high zinc prices, domestic inventory increased and has now exceeded 100,000 tons, showing a short - term upward trend in a volatile manner. Meanwhile, LME zinc inventory is at a low level in recent years, providing support for the downside of zinc prices [4]. 4. Zinc Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: The Shanghai Zinc main contract had a closing price of 22,320 yuan per ton, a trading volume of 105,121 lots, and an open interest of 108,084 lots. LME zinc had a closing price of 2,727 dollars per ton, with an open interest of 282,405.52 lots [4]. - **Spot Data**: The price of 0 zinc ingot was 22,300 yuan per ton, down 2.06%; the price of 1 zinc ingot was 22,230 yuan per ton, down 2.07%. There were also data on various locations' zinc ingot premiums and discounts and LME zinc premiums and discounts [15]. 5. Zinc Inventory Data - **Domestic Inventory**: Shanghai inventory was 38,000 tons, up 2.43%; Tianjin inventory was 40,100 tons, down 4.52%; seven - location inventory was 103,200 tons, down 0.48%; zinc concentrate port inventory was 263,000 tons, down 4.36%; Shanghai Zinc delivery warehouse inventory was 61,724 tons, up 3.88% [25]. - **LME Inventory**: Total LME zinc inventory was 100,825 tons, down 12.91%; registered LME zinc warrants were 57,075 tons, down 6.40% [25]. 6. Zinc Element Supply - Demand Balance - In June 2025, the supply - demand balance of zinc concentrates was - 2,000 metal tons, a 96.5% decrease year - on - year and a 103.85% decrease month - on - month; the supply - demand balance of refined zinc was 24,000 tons, a 2500.00% decrease year - on - year and a 211.11% decrease month - on - month [41]. 7. Downstream Consumption - The downstream operating rates of galvanizing, zinc oxide, and die - casting zinc alloys were 56.77% (down 2.65 percentage points), 56.13% (up 0.14 percentage points), and 48.24% (down 2.79 percentage points) respectively [44].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The nickel and stainless steel futures market showed a weak and volatile trend this week, mainly driven by the weakening sentiment in the broader market. The anti - involution sentiment declined, and factors such as the US dollar index, US copper tariffs, and China - US economic and trade talks temporarily suppressed the market. - The price of nickel ore from the Philippines has loosened due to improved rainfall in major mining areas and a seasonal increase in domestic nickel ore arrivals. In Indonesia, the first - phase nickel ore benchmark price in August has increased, but the improvement in premium is limited. - The price of nickel sulfate remained firm this week. It is currently the restocking period for some precursor factories, and nickel salt factories have a certain price - holding sentiment. - The price of ferronickel continued to correct this week. If ferronickel prices continue to rise, the supply of ice - nickel and pure nickel is expected to decrease, which will strongly support the price increase of ferronickel. - The stainless steel market also showed a weak and volatile trend, but the decline was limited. The cost support of ferronickel has strengthened, and the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station is expected to boost the demand for high - end stainless steel. Stainless steel has been continuously destocked, and spot transactions have improved. Some steel mills may increase production in August. - It is expected that nickel will fluctuate in the range of [118,000 - 126,000] yuan, and stainless steel will fluctuate in the range of [12,500 - 13,100] yuan [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Disk Review - The main contract of Shanghai nickel fluctuated weakly, closing at 119,770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,850 yuan or 1.52% from the previous week. The main contract of stainless steel closed at 12,840 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous week [2][4][6]. 3.2. Industrial Performance - **Spot Market**: The price of Jinchuan nickel was 121,850 yuan/ton, with a premium of 2,250 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate was 27,370 yuan/ton, and the profit margin of producing nickel sulfate from MHP was adjusted to 0%. The average ex - factory price of 304/2B cut - edge stainless steel was 12,700 yuan/ton, and the profit margin of 304 stainless steel cold - rolling decreased to about - 4.74% [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of pure nickel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 25,750 tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 209,082 tons. The social inventory of stainless steel was 982,700 tons, and the inventory of ferronickel was 33,415 tons. The ex - factory price of 8% - 12% high - nickel pig iron was adjusted to 912.5 yuan/nickel point [2]. 3.3. Core Logic - **Nickel**: Affected by the broader market sentiment, the nickel market was under pressure. The improvement in the supply of Philippine nickel ore and the increase in the Indonesian nickel ore benchmark price had different impacts on the market. The price of nickel sulfate was firm, and the trend of ferronickel was crucial for the supply of pure nickel [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: Although the market was weak, multiple factors limited the decline. The cost support of ferronickel, the expected increase in demand from the hydropower station, and the destocking trend provided some support. The production plans of steel mills in August need to be closely monitored [3]. 3.4. Market Data - **Nickel Futures**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel and other contracts showed a decline in price, with a decrease in trading volume and a change in open interest and basis [4][5]. - **Stainless Steel Futures**: The main contract of stainless steel remained stable, while other contracts had slight fluctuations. Trading volume and open interest decreased, and the basis remained unchanged [6]. - **Nickel Spot**: The prices of various nickel products such as Jinchuan nickel, imported nickel, and electrolytic nickel all declined [7]. - **Nickel Industry Inventory**: Domestic social inventory decreased, LME nickel inventory increased, stainless steel social inventory decreased slightly, and ferronickel inventory increased [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - This week, lead prices were weakly operating. The fading of the low - price involution sentiment had a certain impact. Supply increased slightly, while demand remained sluggish. In the short term, both warehouse receipts and inventories showed signs of accumulation, indicating poor demand. It is expected that the price will maintain a volatile trend. The overall view is that lead prices will mainly fluctuate [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Performance - This week, lead prices showed a range - bound trend, closing at 16,735 yuan per ton. The domestic lead ingot inventory in five locations was 73,000 tons, and the LME inventory was 275,300 tons [2]. 2. Industry Performance - In late July, the pb50 TC processing fee of a silver - lead mine in North China was lowered to - 500 yuan/metal ton. The silver content was about 3000 - 4000g/physical ton, and the silver pricing coefficient was 0.95. Small amounts of other minor metals such as antimony were present, and copper and zinc did not reach the starting pricing content and were not priced separately [2]. 3. Supply - side Situation - This week, there were many news about smelters resuming work and undergoing maintenance, and the impact on lead prices remains to be investigated. Primary lead smelters had a strong production willingness due to the expected peak demand season. For recycled lead, due to cost support and the scarcity of raw material waste batteries, the recycled lead smelting end was still in a loss state, with a weak willingness to start production [3]. 4. Demand - side Situation - This week, the operating rate of lead - acid batteries was 71.86%, remaining stable. Some battery enterprises had started stockpiling for the peak season, but since it was still in the transition stage, demand was still weak in the short term. Whether consumption can pick up in August remains to be seen [3].

Group 1: Futures Data - The Friday settlement price of the 10 - year Treasury bond futures T2509.CFE is 108.450 with a weekly increase of 0.24%, and T2512.CFE is 108.425 with a 0.20% increase [7]. - The Friday settlement price of the 5 - year Treasury bond futures TF2509.CFE is 105.730 with a 0.14% increase, and TF2512.CFE is 105.785 with a 0.13% increase [7]. - The Friday settlement price of the 2 - year Treasury bond futures TS2509.CFE is 102.352 with a 0.03% increase, and TS2512.CFE is 102.394 with a - 0.01% change [7]. - The Friday settlement price of the 30 - year Treasury bond futures TL2509.CFE is 119.090 with a 0.82% increase, and TL2512.CFE is 118.820 with a 0.78% increase [7]. Group 2: Spread Data - The spread of T2509 - T2512 is 0.025 with a weekly increase of 4.000; TF2509 - TF2512 is - 0.055 with no weekly change; TS2509 - TS2512 is - 0.042 with a - 0.432 weekly change [7]. - The spread of 2TS - T is 300.958 with a - 0.151 weekly change; 2TF - T is 103.010 with a 0.035 weekly change; TS - TF is 98.974 with a - 0.093 weekly change [7]. Group 3: Bond Yield Data - The Friday closing yield of the 1 - year Treasury bond is 1.37% with a - 1.49 BP weekly change; 2 - year is 1.42% with - 1.11 BP; 3 - year is 1.45% with - 2.39 BP; 5 - year is 1.57% with - 2.15 BP; 7 - year is 1.67% with - 2.21 BP; 10 - year is 1.71% with - 2.75 BP; 30 - year is 1.95% with - 2.70 BP [7]. - The Friday closing yield of the 1 - year CDB bond is 1.50% with a - 2.70 BP weekly change; 3 - year is 1.64% with - 2.25 BP; 5 - year is 1.67% with - 3.40 BP; 7 - year is 1.79% with - 3.20 BP; 10 - year is 1.76% with - 4.54 BP; 30 - year is 2.05% with - 2.70 BP [7]. Group 4: Funding Rate Data - The latest price of the inter - bank pledged repo rate DR001 is 1.31% with a - 20.35 BP weekly change; DR007 is 1.42% with - 22.81 BP; DR014 is 1.53% with - 13.51 BP [7]. - The latest price of the SHIBOR1M is 1.55% with a 0.40 BP weekly change; SHIBOR3M is 1.56% with a 0.40 BP weekly change [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report continues the previous analytical framework of "USD - mid - price - spot price" to judge the direction and rhythm of the USD/CNY exchange rate. With the "steep cooling" of the non - farm payrolls data, the spot exchange rate of USD/CNY will have increased volatility and a slowdown in appreciation expectations. Whether the 7.20 level is "effectively broken" depends on the policy signals from the mid - price. Currently, the mid - price of USD/CNY shows a clear "stabilizing" orientation. In the context of sufficient policy tools and reduced external pressure, the RMB has no one - way depreciation risk against the USD in the short term, with a short - term trading range of 7.15 - 7.23 and a central level around 7.20 [1][14]. - The report is cautious about the view that the US economy can withstand the impact of tariffs. The seemingly strong US economic data are just short - term fluctuations, and problems such as slow domestic demand growth, persistent inflation pressure, and weak investment activities remain unsolved. The July non - farm payrolls report indicates that the cooling of the US labor market has exceeded expectations, and the reliability and transparency of official employment data are declining [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Foreign Exchange Market Review - As of 16:30 on August 1, the US Dollar Index continued to appreciate compared to the previous Friday. The on - shore RMB, off - shore RMB, Japanese Yen, Euro, and British Pound all remained under pressure against the US Dollar [3]. - Market quotes for various exchange rates are provided, including the USD/CNY mid - price, spot rates, and cross - exchange rates. For example, the USD/CNY mid - price increased by 0.108%, the USD/CNY spot rate rose by 0.596%, and the USD/CNH spot rate increased by 0.736% [4]. 3.2 USD/CNY Spot Exchange Rate Weekly Review - Last week, the US Dollar Index continued to rebound, supported by the market's selling pressure on the Euro due to the agreement between the US and Europe and overall positive economic data. The USD/CNY spot exchange rate also rose steadily. However, the weak non - farm payrolls data on Friday caused a significant drop in the US Dollar Index [9]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The report is skeptical about the view that the US economy can resist tariff impacts. The seemingly good economic data are short - term fluctuations, and underlying problems in the US economy persist. The July non - farm payrolls report is a key evidence. It shows that the cooling of the US labor market has exceeded expectations, and the reliability of official employment data is decreasing [10][12][13]. - The report continues the previous analytical framework. With the poor non - farm payrolls data, the volatility of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate will increase, and the appreciation expectation will slow down. The 7.20 level's "effective breakthrough" depends on the mid - price policy signals. In the short term, the RMB has no one - way depreciation risk against the USD, with a trading range of 7.15 - 7.23 and a central level around 7.20 [14]. 3.4 RMB Market Observation 3.4.1 Policy Tools Tracking - Counter - Cyclical Factor - As of last Friday, the mid - price of the USD/CNY exchange rate was reported at 7.1496, depreciating 77 basis points from the previous Friday [16]. 3.4.2 Investor Expectations and Sentiment Tracking - **Enterprise Sector Expectations**: In June 2025, banks settled 14900 billion RMB and sold 13083 billion RMB. From January to June 2025, cumulative settlements were 82135 billion RMB, and cumulative sales were 83950 billion RMB. In US dollars, June settlements were 2077 billion, and sales were 1823 billion. From January to June, cumulative settlements were 11432 billion, and cumulative sales were 11685 billion. Bank - customer foreign - related income and payments data are also provided [18]. - **Overseas Investor Expectations**: As of last Friday, the spread between the off - shore and on - shore RMB indicated a slight increase in overseas investors' depreciation sentiment towards the RMB against the USD [24]. - **Professional Investor Expectations**: As of last Friday, the 1 - year NDF closing price of USD/CNH was 7.0269, up from the previous Friday. Most risk - reversal option indicators (25Delta) showed a slight increase in the market's depreciation sentiment towards the RMB [26]. 3.4.3 Derivatives Market Tracking - **Hong Kong RMB Futures Market**: Charts of the Hong Kong Exchange's USD/CNH futures main - contract transaction price and related basis are provided [30][31]. - **Singapore RMB Futures Market**: Charts of the Singapore Exchange's USD/CNH futures main - contract transaction price and related basis are provided [33][35]. 3.5 Key Data and Events 3.5.1 One - Week Global Key Events Review - **China**: Sino - US economic and trade teams held talks in Stockholm. The national childcare subsidy system was announced, with a subsidy of 3600 yuan per child per year. In June 2025, China had a trade surplus of 701 billion US dollars in goods and services. In 2024, the "Three New" economic added value was 24.29 trillion yuan, growing by 6.7%. The July manufacturing PMI was 49.3% [39][40]. - **US**: The US Treasury increased the borrowing estimate to 1 trillion US dollars this quarter. The June goods trade deficit narrowed by 10.8%. The second - quarter GDP grew by 3% annually. The July non - farm payrolls increased by only 73,000, with significant downward revisions to previous months' data. The US will resume "reciprocal tariffs" [41][42]. - **UK**: No key events were reported. - **Eurozone**: Although the general framework of the EU - US trade agreement was determined, details remained to be negotiated. The second - quarter GDP grew by 0.1% quarter - on - quarter and 1.4% year - on - year. Germany and Italy's economies contracted in the second quarter [43]. - **Japan**: No key events were reported. - **Other**: Australia's second - quarter CPI rose by 2.1% year - on - year. The Bank of Canada kept the interest rate at 2.75% [44][45]. 3.5.2 One - Week Global Central Bank Statements - **People's Bank of China**: Sino - US economic and trade talks were held in Stockholm, and the suspension of part of the US reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures will be extended for 90 days. The Politburo emphasized maintaining policy continuity and implementing proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange will strengthen foreign exchange monitoring and management [45][46]. - **Federal Reserve**: The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged. Trump made a series of tariff - related announcements. Fed理事Kugler will leave office early. New York Fed President Williams expects the US economic growth to slow to about 1% this year [48][50]. - **Bank of Japan**: The Bank of Japan kept the interest rate at 0.5% and raised the 2025 core CPI forecast [51]. - **European Central Bank**: ECB hawkish official Kazimir said the ECB is not in a hurry to cut borrowing costs [52]. - **Bank of England**: No statements were reported. - **Other**: The Bank of Korea's meeting minutes showed that most members considered further interest - rate cuts, and the bank kept the benchmark interest rate at 2.50% [54]. 3.5.3 This Week's Key Financial and Economic Data and Events - A list of key data and events for this week is provided, including US Treasury bill auction rates, Eurozone PPI, US trade data, and China's CPI and PPI [55]. 3.6 International Related Quotes 3.6.1 Major Countries' Exchange Rate Quotes - Charts of exchange rates such as the US Dollar Index, Euro/USD, USD/KRW, and others are provided [58][60]. 3.6.2 Correlation of Major Asset Classes - Charts of assets including the S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX), Brent crude oil, London gold, and others are provided [80][81][83]. 3.6.3 Liquidity - Charts of central bank open - market operations, Shibor quotes, and SOFR quotes are provided [90][91][92]. 3.6.4 Sino - US Interest Rate Spread - Charts of Sino - US interest rate spreads at different tenors, 10 - year US Treasury yields, and 10 - year Chinese Treasury yields are provided [94][95]. 3.6.5 RMB Exchange Rate Index - A chart of the three major RMB exchange rate indices is provided [97].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The national propylene market price fluctuated slightly this period, with the Shandong market price at 6,205 yuan/ton as of Friday, down 35 yuan/ton from the previous Friday, and further dropping over the weekend [1][5]. - The cost side was volatile this period. Crude oil had significant fluctuations with mixed factors; propane FEI rose slightly during the week but overall showed a weak oscillation, and the far - month 0102 is a relatively peak season for propane; methanol and coal prices declined after the policy sentiment faded. Overall, cost disturbances increased [5]. - The supply side remained relatively loose this week. The operation rate of major refineries was at a high level, the load of local refineries increased, the operation rate of MTO units remained stable, and the operation rate of PDH decreased slightly due to the maintenance of some units [5]. - On the demand side, there were not many changes overall. The production of PP pellets remained at a high level, the operation rate of PP powder increased compared to before, the operation rate of propylene oxide increased due to improved profits, the operation rate of butanol increased due to the resumption of production at CNOOC Shell, and other downstream sectors had little change. In addition, in the Shandong region, due to the maintenance of some units, the supply decreased this period, while the demand increased slightly due to the resumption or increased load of some units, and the supply - demand gap decreased [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Profit Data - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil closed at $69.52, down $2.26 from the previous day and up $1.13 from the previous week; WTI crude oil closed at $67.26, down $2.1 from the previous day and up $2.19 from the previous week. Other upstream prices such as MOPJ, NWE NAP, etc., also had corresponding changes [8]. - **Mid - stream Prices**: FOB Korea was at $730, CFR China was at $765, etc. The prices in different regions in China, such as East China, Shandong, etc., also showed certain fluctuations [8]. - **Downstream Prices**: The price of propylene oxide increased by 550 yuan/ton compared to the previous week, and the prices of other downstream products such as PP pellets, PP powder, etc., also had corresponding changes [1][3]. - **Profits**: The profit of major refineries was 976.96 yuan/ton, and the profit of local refineries was 225.17 yuan/ton. The profits of different production processes such as MTO, PDH, etc., also had different degrees of change [8][10]. 3.2 Domestic Supply and Demand Situation - **Supply**: The overall operation rate of propylene was 72.97% (- 0.86%), and the production was 1.1636 million tons (- 7,700 tons). The operation rate of major refineries was 81.55% (0.34%), the operation rate of independent refineries was 48.20% (+ 0.04%), the operation rate of steam cracking was 83.08% (+ 2.9%), the operation rate of PDH was 73.58% (- 1.72%), and the operation rate of MTO was 85.27% (+ 0.32%) [2]. - **Demand**: The operation rate of PP pellets was 76.94% (- 0.03%), and the production was 773,300 tons (- 300 tons); the operation rate of PP powder was 36.04% (- 2.95%), and the production was 65,000 tons (- 5,300 tons); the operation rate of propylene oxide was 72.87% (- 0.44%), and the production was 118,800 tons (- 700 tons). The operation rate of butanol increased to 96.29% (+ 8.63%) [3]. - **Inventory**: The in - plant inventory of propylene was 33,600 tons (+ 1,800 tons), and the inventory was generally moderately high [3]. - **Import and Export**: The price difference between China and South Korea has slightly narrowed recently but still remains open. South Korea had relatively more maintenance in July, and it is expected that the domestic imports will decrease slightly in July [4]. 3.3 Shandong Balance Sheet - The supply in the Shandong region decreased this week, and the demand increased. Dongming Petrochemical carried out maintenance on July 29, including 96,000 tons of MDH and 100,000 tons of catalytic cracking units; Jinhai's 210,000 - ton light hydrocarbon cracking unit was under maintenance on July 29, reducing the external supply. On the demand side, Dongming's 200,000 - ton PP unit was under maintenance, Jinneng's 450,000 - ton 3PP unit resumed production, and some units such as CNOOC Fine Chemical and Jinling Chemical increased their propylene oxide load slightly [6][8]. 3.4 Domestic Supply and Demand Conditions - **Upstream Operation**: The operation rate of major refineries was 81.55%, up 0.34% from the previous week; the operation rate of local refineries was 48.2%, up 0.04% from the previous week. The operation rates of different production processes such as naphtha cracking, MTO, etc., also had corresponding changes [38]. - **Mid - stream Propylene**: Propylene production was 1.1636 million tons, down 13,800 tons from the previous week; the operation rate was 72.97%, down 0.86% from the previous week; the in - plant inventory was 33,600 tons, up 1,800 tons from the previous week [38]. - **Downstream Products**: The production and operation rates of downstream products such as PP pellets, PP powder, propylene oxide, etc., also had corresponding changes. For example, the production of PP pellets was 773,300 tons, down 300 tons from the previous week; the operation rate was 76.94%, down 0.03% from the previous week [38]. 3.5 Device Maintenance Situation - **MTO**: Many MTO units such as Cornell Chemical, Changzhou Changde, etc., are in a long - term shutdown or maintenance state [40]. - **PDH**: Many PDH units such as Hebei Haiwei, Jiangsu Sierbang 2, etc., are in a shutdown, maintenance, or planned maintenance state [41]. 3.6 Supply and Demand in South Korea and Japan - **South Korea**: South Korea's propylene production, domestic trade, and inventory all showed certain seasonal characteristics. It is expected that the production will decrease slightly in July and increase after the resumption of production in August [4][165][166]. - **Japan**: Japan's propylene production, sales, and inventory also showed certain seasonal characteristics [170].

南华期货玻璃纯碱产业周报 ——交易回归现实 寿佳露（投资咨询证号：Z0020569） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年8月3日 一、玻璃核心观点 【供应】 目前玻璃日熔处于15.96万吨，整体稳定。暂无预期外变动，安徽冠盛 600 吨预计 7-8月点火，安全六线预计 7-8月点火，乌海中玻 800 吨一线预计 8-10 月前后冷修。 【库存】 玻璃厂内库存5949.9万重箱，环比-239.7万重箱，环比-3.87%，同比-13.88%。折库存天数25.5天，较上 期-1.1天。沙河中游库存快速增加；负反馈下，现货跟跌，产销疲弱。 【利润】 隆众数据，各工艺玻璃产线利润，天然气-150元，煤制气+138元，石油焦+138元。 【需求】 截至7月底，深加工样本企业订单天数均值9.55天，环比+2.7%，同比-1.55%；深加工持有原片库存13天，环 比+25%，同比+54.76%。本周各区平均产销84，上周123，环比上周明显走弱。 【策略观点】 交易回归产业现实，不过政策预期或在持续与降温中反复，市场情绪亦有反复。基本面看，供应端日熔小幅 回升，暂无预期外状况。当前玻璃累计表需下滑8 ...