Group 1: Financial Futures - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: Domestically, the expectation of a缓和 in Sino-US trade relations has increased, but short - term expectations for negotiation results should not be too high. Overseas, the US government shutdown has led to data vacuum, and the market's concerns about the economy have eased but risks remain. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, but the actual impact may be limited. Attention should be paid to the subsequent release of US employment and inflation data [1] - Summary by relevant catalogs: - Macro: Focus on the Fourth Plenary Session and the APEC Summit. The US government shutdown may cause a temporary rise in unemployment. Trump's actions and statements have affected the oil market. India and the US are close to reaching a trade agreement [1] - RMB exchange rate: The RMB exchange rate has basically stabilized within a narrow range. Although the external environment is uncertain, it is expected to remain stable at a reasonable and balanced level. It is recommended to wait and see [2][3] - Stock index: The stock market is in a wait - and - see state. It is necessary to focus on the release of information from the Fourth Plenary Session. Before there is substantial progress in Sino - US trade, the stock index's sensitivity to it has weakened. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying straddle options [4][5] - Treasury bond: The bond market is waiting for news guidance. It is recommended to hold a small number of long positions at low levels and go long on dips for those with empty positions [5][6] - Container shipping European line: The futures price continues to consolidate at a high level. There are both long and short factors. It is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term. Trend traders can try long positions lightly, and arbitrage traders can pay attention to the opportunity of spread regression [7][8] Group 2: Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: Different non - ferrous metals have different market trends. Precious metals are in a short - term adjustment stage; copper prices are affected by multiple factors and are expected to fluctuate within a range; the alumina industry is in an oversupply situation; zinc spreads continue to expand; nickel and stainless steel are waiting for clear signals; tin is expected to be strong; lithium carbonate is expected to be strong; industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a shock adjustment; lead is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [9][13][16][17][19][20][22][24][25] - Summary by relevant catalogs: - Gold & Silver: In the short - term adjustment stage, pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium term. London gold has resistance at 4150 and support at 4000; silver has resistance at 50 - 50.5 and strong resistance at 55, support at 48 [9][11] - Copper: In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate within the range of 84000 - 86000. Speculators can go long on dips around 85000 ± 500. Downstream enterprises can adopt a combined strategy to reduce procurement costs, and enterprises with inventory pressure can use call options for hedging [12][13][14] - Aluminum industry chain: Aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Pay attention to the APEC Sino - US meeting and the change of alumina cost [14][15][16] - Zinc: The spread continues to expand. The domestic supply is strong and the demand is weak. Pay attention to the opening of the export window and the possibility of macro - upward drive [17] - Nickel, stainless steel: Continue to fluctuate, waiting for clear signals. Pay attention to Sino - US tariff issues and the change of nickel ore quota in 2026 [17][19] - Tin: It is expected to be strong. The supply is weaker than the demand, and it is recommended to hold long positions [20] - Lithium carbonate: The bottom space is stable, and it is expected to be strong. Pay attention to downstream production scheduling and supply - side resumption [21][22] - Industrial silicon & Polysilicon: Industrial silicon may see a small increase in price due to enterprise production cuts in the dry season, but it is restricted by inventory. Polysilicon has production cuts in the southwest region, and the specific impact needs to be observed [23][24] - Lead: It is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. It is recommended to sell both call and put options to earn option premiums [25] Black Metals - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: Steel products are expected to rebound in the short term but be weak in the long term. Iron ore is under pressure. Coking coal and coke have a strong bottom support but limited rebound space. Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are under pressure due to weak downstream demand and high inventory [26][28][30][31] - Summary by relevant catalogs: - Rebar & Hot - rolled coil: It is expected to rebound in the short term but be weak in the long term. Pay attention to the Fourth Plenary Session and the possibility of policy stimulus [26] - Iron ore: Under the dual pressure of macro - sentiment and fundamentals, it is in a weak shock. The key lies in policy signals [28] - Coking coal & Coke: The coking coal spot market is tight, but the downstream contradiction has intensified, and the rebound space is limited. It is recommended to treat it with a shock mindset [29][30] - Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese: The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is high. If there is no super - expected stimulus policy, the price will be under pressure [31] Energy and Chemicals - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: Crude oil has a short - term rebound but long - term concerns. LPG follows the rise of crude oil. PTA - PX follows the cost - end shock. MEG is under pressure and is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Methanol fluctuates under pressure. PP's supply pressure is temporarily relieved. PE's supply is strong and demand is weak. Pure benzene and styrene rebound at a low level. Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil are affected by supply and demand. Asphalt is affected by raw material concerns. Glass, soda ash, and caustic soda need to pay attention to supply changes [33][35][37][38][43][44][48][50][53][54][55][56][57][59][60] - Summary by relevant catalogs: - Crude oil: The short - term rebound is due to sanctions, but there are long - term supply surpluses [33][35] - LPG: Follows the rise of crude oil, and the price is expected to fluctuate with crude oil in the short term [36][37] - PTA - PX: Follows the cost - end shock. It is recommended to wait and see on the one - hand and expand the processing fee on TA01 when it is below 280 [38][39][40] - MEG: Under pressure, it is expected to fluctuate at a low level. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options after the macro situation is determined [41][42][43] - Methanol: Fluctuates under pressure. The port inventory accumulation is smoothed, and the price range is 2250 - 2350 [44] - PP: The supply pressure is temporarily relieved, and it is recommended to shrink the L - P spread in the short term [47][48] - PE: The supply is strong and demand is weak, and it is necessary to pay attention to macro and cost changes [49][50][51] - Pure benzene & Styrene: Rebound at a low level. It is recommended to shrink the price spread in the short term and wait and see on the one - hand [52][53] - Fuel oil: The supply tension is relieved, and the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking is bearish [54] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The supply is narrowed, the demand is weak, and the upward drive is limited [55] - Asphalt: Affected by raw material concerns, it is recommended to wait and see or short at a high level [56] - Glass, Soda ash, Caustic soda: Soda ash has long - term supply pressure; glass has high inventory and weak demand; caustic soda needs to observe the replenishment demand [57][59][60] Pulp, Logs, etc. - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: Pulp and offset paper may continue to rise in the short term but are restricted above. Logs have a new low in the month - spread. Propylene is expected to fluctuate [60][61][62][63][65][66] - Summary by relevant catalogs: - Pulp & Offset paper: Pulp prices are expected to fluctuate upward, and offset paper's decline is temporarily interrupted [60][61][62] - Logs: The month - spread reaches a new low. There are potential supply - reduction factors, and it is recommended to use a covered call strategy for the 01 contract [63][64] - Propylene: Expected to fluctuate. The cost provides short - term support, but there is a lack of upward drive [65][66] Agricultural Products - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: The short - term supply of live pigs decreases. It is recommended to use a 1 - 5 positive spread and go short on rallies [68][69] - Summary by relevant catalogs: - Live pigs: The short - term supply decreases. Pay attention to the game between farmers' sentiment and price on replenishment, and the implementation of capacity - reduction policies [68][69]

Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Soybean No. 1 Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: October 23, 2025 - Analyst: Bian Shuyang (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0012647) - Research Assistant: Kang Quangui (Qualification Certificate No.: F03148699) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1][2] Core Viewpoints - After a strong rebound, the market shows a series of changes such as rising grain - selling profits, emerging profits on the futures market, and increasing acquisition costs. The short - term upward trend has slowed down. The spot market is mainly stable, and the futures market has a slight correction. The 01 contract closed lower yesterday, bottomed out and rebounded during the session, closing at 4057 yuan, and the night session was consolidated strongly, closing at 4063 yuan [4]. - This year, the restraint and price - holding of the grain - selling end, disasters in the southern producing areas, and rigid debt - repayment needs have changed the previous price trend of unilateral decline during the new harvest season. Currently, the game between buyers and sellers is relatively balanced, but the pressure of new grain listing still needs to be released. The price bottom - grinding time may be extended under the condition of dispersed selling pressure. In addition, due to the good price situation, the state - reserve acquisition has not yet exerted its strength, which also provides a bottom - support expectation for the later market. Overall, the fundamental pressure of the domestic soybean market has been alleviated, and the price performance is better than the same period in previous years. Short - term attention should be paid to the pressure brought by the release of the back - end selling pressure [4]. Price Forecast and Risk Strategies Price Forecast - The price range forecast for the soybean No. 1 11 - contract in the month is 3900 - 4100 yuan, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.93% and a historical percentile of 18.6% [3]. Risk Strategies Inventory Management - For planting entities with high demand for selling new - harvested soybeans in autumn but facing large short - term selling pressure (long spot exposure), it is recommended to take advantage of the futures price rebound to appropriately lock in planting profits by short - selling soybean No. 1 futures (A2601) with a hedging ratio of 30% when the price is above 4100 [3]. - When soybeans are concentrated on the market and the seller's bargaining power weakens (long spot exposure), it is recommended to sell call options (A2511 - C - 4050) to increase the grain - selling price with a hedging ratio of 30% when the option price is between 30 - 50 (holding) [3]. Procurement Management - For those worried about rising raw material prices and increasing procurement costs (short spot exposure), it is recommended to mainly wait to purchase spot in the medium - term and focus on long - term procurement management. Long A2603 and A2605 contracts and wait for the price to bottom out in the fourth quarter [3]. Market Data Spot Price and Basis | Location | Spot Price on 2025 - 10 - 22 (yuan) | Basis | | --- | --- | --- | | Harbin (Domestic Grade 3) | 3890 | - 167 | | Nenjiang (Domestic Grade 3) | 3840 | - 221 | | Jiamusi (Domestic Grade 3) | 3920 | - 141 | | Changchun (Domestic Grade 3) | 3970 | - 91 | [4] Futures Closing Price | Contract | Closing Price on 2025 - 10 - 21 (yuan) | Closing Price on 2025 - 10 - 22 (yuan) | Daily Change (yuan) | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean No. 1 11 | 4038 | 4035 | - 3 | - 0.07% | | Soybean No. 1 01 | 4061 | 4057 | - 4 | - 0.10% | | Soybean No. 1 03 | 4064 | 4064 | 0 | 0.00% | | Soybean No. 1 05 | 4100 | 4101 | 1 | 0.02% | | Soybean No. 1 07 | 4098 | 4096 | - 2 | - 0.05% | | Soybean No. 1 09 | 4100 | 4096 | - 4 | - 0.10% | [7] Core Contradictions and Influencing Factors Core Contradictions - After a strong rebound, the short - term upward trend has slowed down. The new grain listing pressure needs to be released, and it remains to be seen whether the downstream acquisition can provide support. The price bottom - grinding time may be extended, but the state - reserve acquisition provides a bottom - support expectation [4]. Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - The reduction in production in the southern region has led to changes in the acquisition behavior of enterprises, and the grain sources in the northeastern producing areas are valued, which supports the price. - The debt - repayment operation under two - way auctions supports short - term demand, and the rigid acquisition in the sales areas increases as the weather gets colder [6]. Bearish Factors - During the new grain listing period, the spot pressure still needs to be digested, but the selling pressure is relatively dispersed. - Currently, the supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, the prices of oil and meal are low, which suppresses the domestic soybean crushing demand, and the sales of medium - and low - protein soybeans are in trouble [6]

Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Corn & Starch Industry Daily Report - Date: October 23, 2025 - Analyst: Dai Hongxu (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0021819) - Research Assistant: Kang Quangui (Qualification Certificate No.: F03148699) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Core Viewpoint - As the weather in North China improves, the focus returns to the pressure of new - season supply. The spot market is stable, while the futures market shows a downward adjustment. The price may decline later due to selling pressure. Starch sales are improving, but the inventory is still high. The CBOT corn futures rose 0.95% on Wednesday due to expected lower yields [2] Key Points by Category Market Conditions - **Spot Market**: Prices in various ports and regions remained stable on October 23, 2025. For example, the price in Jinzhou Port was 2180 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The basis of Jinzhou Port's main continuous contract increased by 11 to 47 [3] - **Futures Market**: On October 22, most corn futures contracts closed lower. For instance, the corn 01 contract dropped 11 yuan to 2133 yuan, a 0.51% decline. Some corn starch futures contracts showed small fluctuations, like the corn starch 11 contract rising 11 yuan to 2410 yuan, a 0.46% increase [3] Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: The number of state - reserve granary purchase points increased, aiming to support prices. The meteorological problems in North China weakened the downward price momentum, making it difficult to push down prices [5] - **Negative Factors**: The pig industry is in the process of capacity adjustment, which may affect long - term corn feed demand. With the dissipation of weather disturbances, the focus is back on supply pressure, increasing short - term price pressure [5] Other Market Data - **US Market**: On October 23, 2025, the CBOT corn main continuous contract price was 423.75, up 4 with a 0.95% increase. The import profit of US corn from the Gulf of Mexico was 200.69 yuan/ton, and that from the US West Coast was 353.72 yuan/ton [27]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests paying attention to capital market sentiment. It indicates a cautious sentiment in the current capital market, waiting for policy statements from the Fourth Plenary Session on the "15th Five-Year Plan" and the results of Sino-US trade negotiations. If the news significantly boosts A-share sentiment, there may be opportunities to go long on bond futures at low levels. The operation should be based on a bullish mindset without chasing high prices [1][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Disk Review - On Wednesday, bond futures fluctuated. Except for a slight decline in TS, other varieties closed higher. Spot bond yields fluctuated. The capital market was loose, with DR001 around 1.32%. The open market conducted 13.82 billion yuan in reverse repurchases, with a net injection of 9.47 billion yuan [1]. 3.2. Intraday News - The Ministry of Commerce held a roundtable meeting with foreign-funded enterprises, stating that it will legally approve compliant trade and maintain the stability of the global industrial chain and supply chain. - Minister Li Lecheng of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology proposed to build a new narrative logic and discourse system for new industrialization [2]. 3.3. Market Judgment - Today, the previously popular sectors in the A-share market showed signs of restarting, but the trading volume was insufficient, and the breakthrough was unsuccessful. The bond market was slightly affected by the stock market during the day. Currently, the long-term bond price is near the upper edge of the range, waiting for guidance from the news. Tomorrow, pay attention to the news from the Fourth Plenary Session. If the news significantly boosts A-share sentiment, there may be opportunities to go long on bond futures at low levels. The operation should be based on a bullish mindset without chasing high prices [3]. 3.4. Daily Data of Treasury Bond Futures | Contract | 2025 - 10 - 22 | 2025 - 10 - 21 | Today's Change | Contract Position (Lots) on 2025 - 10 - 22 | Contract Position (Lots) on 2025 - 10 - 21 | Today's Change in Position | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.352 | 102.362 | -0.01 | 76,223 | 77,402 | -1,179 | | TF2512 | 105.715 | 105.695 | 0.02 | 156,292 | 156,544 | -252 | | T2512 | 108.16 | 108.12 | 0.04 | 269,637 | 265,904 | 3,733 | | TL2512 | 115.6 | 115.49 | 0.11 | 178,780 | 183,244 | -4,464 | | TS Basis (CTD) | -0.0316 | -0.0144 | -0.0172 | TS Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 24,145 | 25,832 | -1,687 | | TF Basis (CTD) | -0.0118 | -0.0262 | 0.0144 | TF Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 40,005 | 45,116 | -5,111 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.1457 | 0.0253 | 0.1204 | T Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 66,248 | 76,221 | -9,973 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.3552 | 0.2497 | 0.1055 | TL Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 113,354 | 124,727 | -11,373 | [4]

南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报 2025年10月22日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 期货价格区间预测 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 碳酸锂LC2601合约 | 强支撑位：72000 | 17.9% | 13.6% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 锂电企业风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | | 操作思路 | 套保工具 | 操作建议 | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 区间 | | 采购管理 | 产成品价格无 相关性 | 未来有生产电池材料的计划， 担心未来采购碳酸锂时价格上 | 为防止成本上涨，企业根据生 产计划需买入对应生产计划的 | 期货 场内/场外期权 | 买入对应期货合约 卖出看跌期权 ...

Report Title - The report is titled "Stock Index Futures Daily Report" dated October 22, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core View - The stock market showed a volatile trend today, which was in line with expectations. The trading volume of the two markets continued to shrink significantly, and the market remained in a wait - and - see mode. With the approaching release of the content of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, if there is significant incremental information, the capital inflow is expected to be rapid and large in volume. Attention should be paid to changes in information. In the Sino - US trade aspect, the situation is still fluctuating, and the stock index has become less sensitive to it as the market turns to a wait - and - see mode and trading volume contracts. A short - term strategy of buying straddle options is recommended in case of policy - related incremental information [4] Market Review - The stock index was volatile and slightly weaker today. The CSI 300 index closed down 0.33%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 2060.38 billion yuan, and all stock index futures varieties declined with shrinking volume [2] Important Information - On October 22, Huawei released the Hongmeng Galaxy Interconnection Architecture during the Hongmeng OS 6 Special Release, with a transmission rate of 160MB/s, enhancing cross - device sharing, multi - screen collaboration, and application continuation experiences [3] - Japanese Prime Minister Hayasuna Sanae is preparing economic stimulus measures expected to exceed last year's 13.9 trillion yen [3] - Goldman Sachs released a research report stating that the Chinese stock market will enter a more sustained upward phase, with a projected increase of about 30% in key indices by the end of 2027, driven by a 12% profit trend growth and a 5% - 10% further revaluation potential [3] Futures Market Observation | Variety | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | -0.46 | -0.06 | -0.80 | -0.50 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 9.6934 | 4.7089 | 10.9239 | 18.2361 | | Trading volume change (10,000 lots) | -2.5532 | -0.6344 | -3.6408 | -5.0712 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 24.9313 | 8.8473 | 23.6439 | 34.1636 | | Open interest change (10,000 lots) | -0.9453 | -0.2835 | -1.2637 | -1.3666 | [4] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | -0.07 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | -0.62 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.73 | | Total trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 16678.56 | | Trading volume change (billion yuan) | -2060.38 | [6]

聚酯产业风险管理日报 ——供应端传闻扰动，EG低位反弹 2025/10/22 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 研究助理：周嘉伟（期货从业证号：F03133676） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 聚酯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 乙二醇 | 3800-4300 | 11.64% | 10.6% | | PX | 6000-6800 | 13.82% | 34.1% | | PTA | 4250-4750 | 13.87% | 23.9% | | 瓶片 | 5300-5900 | 11.19% | 31.9% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 聚酯套保策略表 【利空解读】 1、华南一套80万吨/年的MEG新装置计划于11月上旬乙烯进料进行试开车，届时将有部分产量可兑现于市 场。华南新装置原计划26年一季度投产，如今投产时间提前，12月供应端预计将带来小幅额外增量。 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, the maintenance of some facilities in Shandong provides slight support to the spot market, alleviating the spot pressure. However, the maintenance will gradually resume next week, and the performance of the spot market should be observed. Additionally, attention should be paid to the reduction amplitude of alumina production [3] 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Risk Management - The monthly price range forecast for caustic soda is 2300 - 2600 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.92% and a historical percentile of 67.1% over three years [2] - For inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, enterprises can short caustic soda futures (SH2601) at 2600 - 2650 yuan/ton with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in profits, and sell call options (SH601C2680) at 60 - 70 yuan/ton with a 50% ratio to collect premiums and reduce costs [2] - For procurement management, when the regular procurement inventory is low, enterprises can buy caustic soda futures (SH2601) at 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in procurement costs, and sell put options (SH601P2320) at 70 - 80 yuan/ton with a 50% ratio to collect premiums and reduce costs [2] 3.2 Core Contradictions and Influencing Factors - Core contradictions: Near - term replenishment is below expectations, the spot market is weak, and there are medium - to - long - term production capacity expansion pressures and policy expectations [3] - Bullish factors: Some facilities in Shandong are under maintenance, leading to a decline in supply. The inventory of 32% caustic soda has decreased, providing slight support to the spot market [3] - Bearish factors: The alumina market is under pressure, local supply adjustments have begun, and the operating rate shows signs of a slight decline, which may affect the demand expectation for caustic soda [3] 3.3 Price and Spread Data - On October 22, 2025, the price of the caustic soda 05 contract was 2475 yuan/ton, up 0.08% from the previous day; the 09 contract was 2558 yuan/ton, down 0.12%; the 01 contract was 2380 yuan/ton, up 0.21% [3] - The 32% caustic soda ex - factory prices in various regions on October 22, 2025, remained mostly unchanged, except for a 1.5% decrease in the price of Beiyuan in Shaanxi [4][6] - The 50% caustic soda ex - factory prices in various regions on October 22, 2025, remained unchanged [6] - The flake caustic soda market prices in most regions on October 22, 2025, decreased, with declines ranging from 0.2% to 1.5% [7] - Some caustic soda brand/regional spreads on October 22, 2025, remained unchanged, while the northwest 99% - 50% caustic soda spread decreased by 51 yuan/ton, and the 50% caustic soda (Guangdong - Shandong) spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton [7] 3.4 Seasonal Data - The report presents the seasonal charts of caustic soda month - spreads (11 - 12), (12 - 01), (11 - 01), (01 - 03), (01 - 05), (05 - 09) and the seasonal charts of caustic soda 09 and 01 contract basis in Shandong [8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The nickel and stainless steel markets are currently fluctuating with the broader market, with no significant changes in the fundamentals recently. There is still an expectation of interest rate cuts within the year at the macro - level, and the progress of Sino - US tariffs repeatedly adjusts risk preferences [3]. - In the nickel ore sector, Indonesia has announced regulations for 2026 quota applications. The overall quota in 2025 is in surplus, and the quota in 2026 is expected to decline under regulatory restrictions such as environmental reviews. The new energy sector is entering the peak season, with high downstream procurement demand and rising prices. The nickel - iron price has limited upward momentum, and its center of gravity has declined. Stainless steel prices rose slightly during the day, with active spot transactions, but its upward momentum is insufficient, and it may fluctuate widely, waiting for clear signals [3]. - The WTO's ruling that the EU's additional tax on Indonesian stainless steel is non - compliant and the exemption of India's BIS certification until the end of the year are positive for stainless steel exports [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Volatility Forecast - **Nickel**: The price range forecast for Shanghai nickel is 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price range forecast for stainless steel is 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 8.23% and a historical percentile of 3.3% [2]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - **Nickel Risk Management Strategies** - **Inventory Management**: When product sales prices fall and inventory has impairment risk, sell Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) according to inventory levels to lock in profits and hedge against spot price declines, with a hedging ratio of 60%. Also, sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a hedging ratio of 50% [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan to lock in production costs. Also, sell put options and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) according to the procurement plan [2]. - **Stainless Steel Risk Management Strategies** - **Inventory Management**: When product sales prices fall and inventory has impairment risk, sell stainless steel futures (SS main contract) according to inventory levels to lock in profits and hedge against spot price declines, with a hedging ratio of 60%. Also, sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a hedging ratio of 50% [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy stainless steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the production plan to lock in production costs. Also, sell put options and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) according to the procurement plan [3]. 3.3 Market Data - **Nickel Market Data** - **Futures Prices**: The latest price of Shanghai nickel main contract is 121,380 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 200 yuan and a change rate of 0%. The prices of other contracts also showed different degrees of change [6]. - **Inventory Data**: The domestic social inventory of nickel is 47,708 tons, with no change from the previous period; LME nickel inventory is 250,878 tons, an increase of 402 tons; nickel - pig iron inventory is 29,062 tons, a decrease of 174 tons [7]. - **Stainless Steel Market Data** - **Futures Prices**: The latest price of the stainless steel main contract is 12,710 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 45 yuan and a change rate of 0%. The prices of other contracts also showed different degrees of change [6]. - **Inventory Data**: The stainless steel social inventory is 952.6 tons, an increase of 47 tons [7]. 3.4 Market Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors** - Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year. - The Indonesian forestry working group takes over part of the nickel mining area of PT Weda Bay. - CATL and Antam promote the construction of a nickel integrated smelter. - The WTO rules that the EU's additional tax on Indonesian stainless steel is non - compliant. - India's BIS certification exemption is extended to the end of the year [6]. - **Negative Factors** - The inventory of pure nickel is high. - The center of gravity of nickel - iron has moved down, and the bottom support has loosened. - Stainless steel has re - entered the inventory accumulation cycle. - The stainless steel market shows a situation of "not prosperous in the peak season", and the demand recovery is less than expected [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The current peak season for asphalt has not shown better - than - expected performance. Short - term external disturbances have increased. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term or look for pressure levels after the price rises to arrange short positions. The supply of asphalt remains stable, the demand is weak due to weather and other factors, the cost of crude oil is expected to decline, and the South China region is still the price depression [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range of the asphalt main contract is 3000 - 3450, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 14.25%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 15.91% [2]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategy - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, to prevent inventory losses, they can short - sell asphalt futures (bu2512) with a hedging ratio of 25% at an entry range of 3650 - 3750. They can also sell call options (bu2512C3500) with a ratio of 20% at an entry range of 30 - 40 to reduce capital costs [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory, to prevent rising procurement costs, they can buy asphalt futures (bu2512) with a hedging ratio of 50% at an entry range of 3300 - 3400. They can also sell put options (bu2512C3500) with a ratio of 20% at an entry range of 25 - 35 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [2]. 3.3 Core Contradiction - The news of a possible US military strike on Venezuela has led to a rise in crude oil and asphalt prices. Since Venezuelan crude oil accounts for over 20% of China's asphalt refinery feedstock, the market is worried about raw material supply disruptions. However, the accuracy of the news needs to be verified by tracking Venezuelan crude oil shipments and China's imports [3]. - The refinery's production is stable, and the overall asphalt supply has little change. The demand is weak after the National Day holiday, mainly consuming social inventory. The inventory structure has improved, with stable and low - pressure factory inventories and a declining social inventory. The problem of raw material shortage has not been fundamentally resolved, so the asphalt cracking spread remains high. The cost of crude oil is expected to decline as OPEC continues to increase production. The price of crude oil has dropped rapidly due to the escalation of Sino - US tariffs. The South China region remains the price depression due to crude oil quotas and consumption tax restrictions [3]. 3.4利多解读 - The pressure on asphalt factory inventories is low, providing a basis for manufacturers to support prices [6]. - In Shandong, Shengxing has resumed asphalt production, while Qicheng and Fengli have switched to producing residual oil. In the East China region, some major refineries have reduced production [6]. - There is an atmosphere of anti - cut - throat competition, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a document to resist disorderly price wars [6]. - There is a possibility of an escalation of the conflict between the US and Venezuela [6]. 3.5利空解读 - The escalation of US tariffs on China has weakened the overall sentiment in the risk market [7]. - The recent increase in the arrival of Venezuelan crude oil and the continued production increase by OPEC+ in November are negative factors for asphalt prices [12]. 3.6 Price and Basis Data - **Spot Price**: On October 22, 2025, the spot prices in Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta, North China, and South China were 3330 yuan/ton, 3470 yuan/ton, 3330 yuan/ton, and 3400 yuan/ton respectively. Compared with the previous day, the prices in Shandong and North China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while those in the Yangtze River Delta and South China remained unchanged [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta, North China, and South China for the 12 - contract decreased by 56 yuan/ton, 46 yuan/ton, 56 yuan/ton, and 46 yuan/ton respectively compared with the previous day [7]. - **Cracking Spread**: The cracking spread of Shandong spot to Brent decreased by 1.7329 yuan/barrel compared with the previous day, while the cracking spread of the futures main contract to Brent increased by 15.9425 yuan/barrel [7].