1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In late March, petroleum benzene entered the maintenance season, with some plants shutting down and supply starting to decrease. For hydrobenzene, supply also began to decline due to poor profits. The overall downstream demand remained stable, with minor fluctuations in the operating rates of major downstream sectors. In April, domestic pure benzene will face a double - reduction in supply and demand, but imports are expected to remain high, making it difficult to reduce inventory in March and April, and the near - term fundamentals will continue to be weak. Although the price of pure benzene in the European and American markets stopped falling in the second half of the week, the sustainability of gasoline blending demand needs to be monitored [3]. - This week, the operating rate of styrene increased slightly. On the demand side, the operating rate of EPS declined significantly, while those of PS and ABS remained high. Except for the inventory reduction of EPS, the inventories of PS and ABS continued to accumulate. With the continuous weakening of pure benzene at the raw material end and poor terminal demand, the price center of downstream products in the industrial chain moved down, and the profits of the 3S segment were compressed. In April, many large styrene plants plan to undergo maintenance, and the supply - demand pattern of styrene is expected to strengthen. However, due to the continuous weakness of pure benzene, the styrene market is likely to fluctuate in the short term, and the strengthening of the styrene pattern will be more reflected in the processing margin. Currently, the spread between pure benzene and styrene is difficult to expand further beyond 1300 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to taking profits when expanding the processing margin. Future focus should be on the trend of external pure benzene and the negative feedback of styrene downstream demand [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Pure Benzene - **Supply and Inventory**: As of March 27, the operating rate of petroleum benzene was 76.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.9%; the operating rate of hydrobenzene was 58.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.4%. As of March 24, 2025, the port inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu was 140,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.70%. In February 2025, South Korea exported a total of 273,200 tons of pure benzene, of which 229,000 tons were exported to China [3]. - **Price and Spread**: The prices of most pure benzene products decreased this week. For example, the price of pure benzene in the East China market dropped from 6,775 yuan/ton last week to 6,700 yuan/ton this week. The spreads between different pure benzene products also showed certain changes, such as the spread between styrene spot and pure benzene spot increasing by 5 yuan/ton to 1,280 yuan/ton [4][5]. - **Monthly Balance Sheet**: The monthly balance sheet shows the production, import, consumption, and inventory changes of pure benzene from January to December 2025 and January - May 2026. For example, in March 2025, the total production was 247,700 tons, the total consumption was 219,400 tons, and the inventory increased by 11,500 tons [8]. - **New Device Commissioning Plan**: From 2024 to 2025, there were many new pure benzene device commissioning plans. In 2024, the total new capacity was 1.35 million tons, and in 2025, it was 2.12 million tons. The annual capacity growth rates in 2024 and 2025 were 5.61% and 8.34% respectively [101]. - **Maintenance Situation**: There were many domestic pure benzene plants under maintenance from March 21 - 27, 2025, with a total weekly loss of 34,300 tons. South Korean aromatic plants also had maintenance plans in 2025, such as Hanwha Total's two plants planning to be shut down for two months starting in mid - August [102][104]. Styrene - **Supply and Inventory**: As of March 27, the operating rate of styrene was 75.3%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%. As of March 24, 2025, the port inventory of styrene in Jiangsu was 153,500 tons, a decrease of 20,800 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 11.93%. As of March 27, the factory inventory of styrene was 223,700 tons, a decrease of 21,200 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 8.66% [3]. - **Price and Spread**: The prices of most styrene products showed certain fluctuations this week. For example, the price of styrene FOB South Korea dropped from 976 US dollars/ton last week to 960 US dollars/ton this week. The spreads between different styrene products also changed, such as the spread between styrene 4 - month paper and pure benzene 4 - month paper increasing by 10 yuan/ton to 1,310 yuan/ton [4][5]. - **Monthly Balance Sheet**: The monthly balance sheet shows the production, import, consumption, and inventory changes of styrene from January to December 2025 and January - May 2026. For example, in March 2025, the total production was 114,500 tons, the total consumption was 117,800 tons, and the inventory decreased by 14,000 tons [160]. - **New Device Commissioning Plan**: From 2024 to 2025, there were many new styrene device commissioning plans. In 2024, the total new capacity was 950,000 tons, and in 2025, it was 1.57 million tons. The annual capacity growth rates in 2024 and 2025 were 4.46% and 7.22% respectively [203]. - **Maintenance Situation**: From March 21 - 27, 2025, many domestic styrene plants were under maintenance, with a total maintenance loss of 51,300 tons. There were also maintenance and shutdown situations for styrene plants outside the Chinese mainland, such as INEOS Styrolution in Canada planning to close its factory in June 2026 [204][205]. Downstream Products (EPS, PS, ABS) - **Supply and Inventory**: The operating rate of EPS was 51.22%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.46%; the operating rate of PS was 68.8%, a month - on - month increase of 1.4%; the operating rate of ABS was 72.8%, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. The inventory of EPS enterprises was about 33,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.05%; the finished - product inventory of PS was 127,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.6%; the finished - product inventory of ABS was 197,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.29% [3]. - **Profit**: The profit of EPS was around 278 yuan/ton, showing a downward trend; the comprehensive profit of PS was around 63 yuan/ton, also showing a downward trend; the profit of ABS was around - 166 yuan/ton, showing a downward trend [3]. - **Device Maintenance**: Some devices of styrene's three major downstream products had dynamic changes, such as some PS plants restarting and some ABS plants planning maintenance [207]. Terminal Products - **Refrigerators**: The production plan for refrigerators in April was 8.09 million units, a 6.7% decrease compared with the actual production in the same period last year [252]. - **Air - conditioners**: The production plan for household air - conditioners in April was 24 million units, a 9.1% increase compared with the actual production in the same period last year [257]. - **Washing Machines**: The production plan for washing machines in April was 7.4 million units, a slight 1.4% increase compared with the actual production in the same period last year [263].

南华商品指数：贵金属板块领涨，能化板块领跌 王怡琳 2025-03-28 16:38:55 摘要：依照相邻交易日的收盘价计算，今日南华综合指数下跌-0.06%。板块指数中，涨幅最大的板块是南华贵金属 指数，上涨1.73%，涨幅最小的板块是南华农产品指数，涨幅为0.17%，跌幅最大的板块是南华能化指数，跌幅 为-0.56%，跌幅最小的板块是南华金属指数，跌幅为-0.38%。 主题指数中，涨幅最大的主题指数是经济作物指数， 上涨0.74%，涨幅最小的主题指数是油脂油料指数，涨幅为0.66%，跌幅最大的主题指数是建材指数，跌幅 为-0.76%，跌幅最小的主题指数是迷你综合指数，跌幅为-0.01%。 商品期货单品种指 南华商品指数日报 2025年3月28日 車华指数小组 曹扬慧 (Z0000505) 赵 搏(F03103098) 王怡琳 (F03118352) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 | | | | 南华商品指数市场数据 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 今收當 | 昨收盘 | 点数 | ...

股指日报 今日股指集体收跌，以沪深300指数为例，收盘下跌0.44%。从资金面来看，两市成交额回落717.15亿元。期 指各品种均缩量下跌。 重要资讯 1. 针对美国总统特朗普宣布对进口汽车征收25%关税，德国、加拿大、日本、欧盟、韩国、墨西哥、巴西方 面纷纷发声，反对美国的新关税政策，并表示将考虑采取措施进行应对。 核心观点 股指期货日报 2025年3月28日 王梦颖（Z0015429）、廖臣悦 (F03120676) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 震荡偏弱 市场回顾 今日亚太市场集体走弱，A股市场情绪也受到一定影响，指数集体收跌，大盘股指相对抗跌。当前板块轮动频 繁，两市成交额已多日持续低于前期高位，市场观望情绪较浓。展望后市，4月份增量政策将进入空窗期，消 息面相对平淡，政策面利好预期边际走弱。海外方面需要重点关注的一是关税政策，对A股或产生一定扰动， 不过从近期各国表态来看，关税政策存在一定拉扯空间，二是美国经济衰退的风险，当前美国相关经济数据 存在分歧，需要等待更多数据进行相互验证，短期股指预计区间震荡。 策略推荐 持仓观望 股指日报期指市场观察 | | IF | IH | IC ...

铜：高位震荡，仍在美关税政策漩涡之中 【盘面回顾】沪铜指数在周四在高位震荡，报收在8.14万元每吨，上海有色现货贴水20元每吨。 南华铜日报 2025年3月28日 铜：高位震荡，仍在美关税政策漩涡之中 南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 点评 【产业表现】外媒3月26日消息，巴拿马工商部周二在一份声明中表示，巴拿马尚未授权对第一量子矿业公司 已关闭的Cobre Panama铜矿进行访问。该部门称："任何第三方进入这些设施都是由该公司单方面安排的， 未经巴拿马国家政府的参与或认可。"部长Julio Molto在 X平台上分享了该声明，并表示巴拿马政府"正在进行 全面审计，旨在从技术上客观地评估当前的运营状况及其对环境的影响。"巴拿马发表声明之前，第一量子周 一宣布了一项访问Cobre Panama铜矿的计划，此次计划是为了参观该场地。 【核心逻辑】铜价在周三的冲高和美国关税政策的调整预期关联较大，回落和多头的止盈离场有一定关联， 持仓有所回落，至59.44万手。目前多头的基本逻辑还是没有改变，关税政策导致美金铜价格上升，沪铜因供 给减少 ...

锡：高位震荡，保持相对稳定 南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 点评 锡：高位震荡，保持相对稳定 【盘面回顾】沪锡指数在周四小幅上涨，报收在28.1万元每吨附近。 【产业表现】基本面保持稳定。 南华锡日报 2025年3月28日 【核心逻辑】锡价在近期基本维持高位震荡，绝对价格对此前Alphamin锡矿停产事件的超涨已经进行了回 吐。缅甸复产预期已经基本得到消化。在需求没有太大变化的情况下，锡价或仍在高位震荡。 【南华观点】高位震荡。 锡期货盘面数据（日度） | | 单位 | 最新价 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪锡主力 | 元/吨 | 281390 | 0 | 0% | | 沪锡连一 | 元/吨 | 281390 | 0 | 0% | | 沪锡连三 | 元/吨 | 281570 | 0 | 0% | | 伦锡3M | 美元/吨 | 34680 | -335 | -0.96% | | 沪伦比 | 比值 | 8.02 | 0.2 | 2.56% | 沪锡期货主力合约收盘 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals is likely to be bullish, with strong weekly and monthly trends, and the short - term is also bullish. Traders should hold existing long positions. Attention should be paid to the policy expectations and market games in the week before the implementation of the US tariff policy on April 2nd. The strong support for London gold is at 2950, and the resistance is at 3100. The support for London silver is at 32.7, and the resistance is at 35 [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - On Thursday, precious metal prices closed strongly higher. The US dollar index declined, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fluctuated, crude oil and Bitcoin oscillated, and European and American stocks generally fell. The South China Non - ferrous Metals Index declined. The US tariff policy cast a shadow over the US economic outlook, and its stance on Russia is expected to boost European gold investment demand. COMEX gold 2506 contract closed at $3099.2 per ounce, up 1.54%; US silver 2505 contract closed at $35.32 per ounce, up 3.21%. SHFE gold 2506 main contract closed at 710.3 yuan per gram, up 0.29%; SHFE silver 2506 contract closed at 8372 yuan per kilogram, up 0.25% [2]. 2. Interest Rate Hike Expectations and Fund Holdings - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability that the market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged on May 8, 2025, is 87.8%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 12.2%. By June 19, the probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged is 35.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 57.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 7.3%. By July 31, the probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged is 20.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 48%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 28.4%. In terms of long - term funds, the SPDR Gold ETF's holdings increased by 0.29 tons to 929.65 tons, while the iShares Silver ETF's holdings decreased by 34 tons to 13916.4 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 3.3 tons to 1155.4 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 16.8 tons to 1678.5 tons in the week ending March 21 [3][4]. 3. This Week's Focus - Recently, the first batch of gold transactions in the insurance industry was completed. PICC Property and Casualty completed the first gold auction transaction of domestic insurance institutions on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, China Life completed the first gold inquiry transaction, Ping An Life completed the first Shanghai Gold pricing transaction, and CPIC Life completed the first large - scale spot gold transaction. This indicates that in addition to the strong global central bank purchases and ETF investment demand, the gold investment demand of the Chinese insurance industry is expected to increase significantly. This week, the main data to focus on is the US PCE data on Friday evening [4]. 4. Precious Metal Price and Inventory Data - **Precious Metal Futures and Spot Price Table**: SHFE gold main contract is at 710.3 yuan per gram, up 0.18%; SGX gold TD is at 708.98 yuan per gram, up 0.22%; CME gold main contract is at $3099.2 per ounce, up 2.4%; SHFE silver main contract is at 8372 yuan per kilogram, up 0.07%; SGX silver TD is at 8348 yuan per kilogram, up 0.17%; CME silver main contract is at $35.32 per ounce, up 3.24%; SHFE - TD gold is at 1.32 yuan per gram, down 18.52%; SHFE - TD silver is at 24 yuan per kilogram, down 6.67%; CME gold - silver ratio is 87.7463, down 0.82% [6]. - **Inventory and Position Table**: SHFE gold inventory is 15675 kilograms, unchanged; CME gold inventory is 1342.6856 tons, up 0.54%; SHFE gold position is 211040 lots, unchanged; SPDR gold position is 929.65 tons, up 0.03%; SHFE silver inventory is 1155.352 tons, down 0.29%; CME silver inventory is 14570.3503 tons, up 0.28%; SGX silver inventory is 1678.545 tons, down 0.99%; SHFE silver position is 444809 lots, unchanged; SLV silver position is 13916.386431 tons, down 0.24% [10]. 5. Stock, Bond, and Commodity Market Overview - The US dollar index is at 104.2745, down 0.39%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan is at 7.2794, up 0.19%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average is at 42454.79 points, down 0.31%; WTI crude oil spot is at $69.92 per barrel, up 0.39%; LmeS copper 03 is at $9907 per ton, down 1.86%; the 10 - year US Treasury yield is at 4.35%, up 0.93%; the 10 - year US real interest rate is at 1.99%, up 0.51%; the 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread is at 0.37%, up 5.71% [15].

股指日报 股指期货日报 2025年3月27日 王梦颖（Z0015429）、廖臣悦 (F03120676) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 涨跌不一，中小盘股指反弹 市场回顾 今日股指除中证1000指数收跌，其余指数均收涨。从资金面来看，两市成交额回升363.84亿元。期指各品种 均放量上涨。 （福建）自由贸易试验区厦门片区、中国（山东）自由贸易试验区青岛片区、中国（广东）自由贸易试验区 以及海南自由贸易港的企业开展离岸转手买卖业务书立的买卖合同，免征印花税。 3. 国家统计局：1-2月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额9109.9亿元，同比下降0.3%。 核心观点 今日股指低开走高后横盘震荡，大盘股指表现相对偏强，两市成交额小幅回升。展望后市，4月份增量政策将 进入空窗期，消息面相对平淡，政策面利好预期边际走弱，在国内没有明显能驱动指数行情因素的情况下， 股指会对海外因素比较敏感。需要重点关注的一是关税政策，特朗普最新宣布对非美国造汽车征收25%关 税，加息预期有所减弱，昨日美债收益率及美元指数均上涨，外围压力加大，不过从近期各国表态来看，关 税政策存在一定拉扯空间，二是美国经济衰退的风险 ...

股指日报 2. 美国3月谘商会消费者信心指数92.9，为2021年1月以来新低。 股指期货日报 2025年3月26日 王梦颖（Z0015429）、廖臣悦 (F03120676) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 涨跌不一，中小盘股指反弹 市场回顾 今日股指涨跌不一，大盘股指收跌，中小盘股指收涨。从资金面来看，两市成交额减少1039.64亿元。期指方 面，IF放量下跌，IH缩量下跌，IC、IM缩量上涨。 重要资讯 1.英国、印度考虑抢在"4月2日"前降低对美税收，以避免美国关税打击。其中，印度拟对230亿美元美国商品 削减关税，并取消有争议的6%数字税。英国正在考虑调整其对美国科技公司征收的数字服务税。 核心观点 本周前两日中小盘股指持续缩量下行，或是本次回调基本接近底部，但今日中小盘股指小幅反弹，量能上依 旧保持缩量，反弹的动力也不是很足。展望后市，4月份增量政策将进入空窗期，消息面相对平淡，政策面利 好预期边际走弱，在国内没有明显能驱动指数行情因素的情况下，股指会对海外因素比较敏感。需要重点关 注的一是关税政策，从近期各国表态来看，存在一定拉扯空间，二是美国经济衰退的风险，最新美国消费者 信 ...

南华期货黑色研究团队 周甫翰 投资咨询证号 Z0020173 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 短期来看，铁矿石的基本面可能已经接近见顶。发运端，全球发运量维持中性，到港量大，现货压力加大， 基差走弱，月差见顶回落。需求端，铁水产量增量超预期，达到了 236.26 万吨，周环比增加 5.67 万吨。但 铁水大增后钢厂利润仍在走阔，市场预期负反馈的可能性增加，对 4 月的需求非常悲观。钢厂增产 / 复产只 是将库存从上游搬到下游，钢材整体去库斜率走平，表需回升斜率放缓，基本面从良好转差。市场预期下游 无法承接这么高的产量，只有减产负反馈才能缓解供需矛盾。目前炉料价格尚未打到需要减产的位置，因此 成本支撑的故事还讲不起来。 库存端，港口库存结束了去库周期，后续的高发运和可能的负反馈，将使得铁矿石重新回到累库的趋势之 中。 因此，铁矿石的基本面见顶转差，黑色市场的供需平衡仍需要进一步减产才能达到，而目前价格还没有打到 炉料减产的位置，向下仍有一定的空间。整体方向上是看空的，但节奏上，需要注意短期超跌的反弹风险， 如4月关税和反倾销陆续落地后，空头的牌陆续打出，若需求下滑不及预期，也存在估值回升的可能 ...

股指日报 股指期货日报 2025年3月25日 王梦颖（Z0015429）、廖臣悦 (F03120676) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 震荡偏弱 市场回顾 今日股指集体收跌，大盘股指相对抗跌，以沪深300指数为例，收盘下跌0.06%。从资金面来看，两市成交额 减少1924.70亿元。期指方面，IF、IH缩量上涨，IC、IM放量下跌。 重要资讯 1. 央行宣布，将于3月25日开展4500亿元MLF操作，并从本月起将MLF操作由单一价位中标调整为多重价位 中标（即美式招标） 2. 美国3月标普全球制造业PMI初值49.8，为3个月以来新低，预期51.8，2月终值52.7；服务业PMI初值 54.3，预期50.8，2月终值51；综合PMI初值53.5，2月终值51.6。 3. 美国总统特朗普宣布，将对购买委内瑞拉石油和天然气的国家征收25%的关税，相关关税将于4月2日生 效。 核心观点 一方面进入财报披露期，科技主题前期释出的利好大部分短期很难兑现，再加上科技股估值逐渐修复，科技 板块上行动能减弱，中小盘股指延续下行；另一方面，特朗普关税立场软化以及美国最新服务业PMI优于预 期，美元指数及美债 ...