Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides short - term evaluations and trading suggestions for multiple commodities, including rubber, silver, crude oil, PTA, etc. It analyzes the supply - demand situation, price trends, and influencing factors of each commodity, and gives corresponding trading strategies. 3. Summary by Commodity Rubber - Supply: Thai raw material glue price is 62.75 Thai baht/kg, cup - glue price is 52.8 Thai baht/kg; Hainan glue for whole - milk production is 13,100 yuan/ton, for concentrated latex production is 14,100 yuan/ton. April global natural rubber production is expected to drop 1.4% to 767,000 tons, 3.9% lower than last month. Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first 4 months are 1.573 million tons, a 13.5% year - on - year increase, with 1.005 million tons exported to China, a 38% year - on - year increase [1]. - Market situation: Raw materials are resistant to price drops due to delayed Thai harvest and rainy weather in Southeast Asia. China's inventory decreased last week. However, downstream consumption is weak, with tire production slightly adjusted down and inventory increasing. The market is expected to be weak and volatile [1]. Silver - Market factors: Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said the pause in loose policies may be longer due to uncertainties. Fed officials believe future interest rate cuts are uncertain. The US dollar index is falling, which is positive for gold and negative for silver [2]. - Market outlook: A mid - term wide - range oscillation is expected. Attention should be paid to the divergence between silver and gold and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations [2]. Crude Oil - Market news: OPEC+ has not discussed increasing oil production by 410,000 barrels per day before the meeting. US President Trump postponed the deadline for imposing a 50% tariff on EU goods to July 9 [4]. - Market situation: The implementation of OPEC+ production increase is less than expected, so short - term pressure on crude oil is small. The Iran - US nuclear agreement negotiation may be long - term, with a weakened short - term impact on the market. In the medium term, it is in the OPEC+ policy window in July, and short - term trading is recommended [4]. PTA - Market data: PX CFR is 825 US dollars/ton, PX - N is 263 US dollars/ton; East China PTA is 4,910 yuan/ton, and PTA cash - flow cost is 449 yuan/ton. The PTA industry load increased 0.2% to 77.1%, at a neutral level in the same period over the years [5]. - Market situation: In May, the unplanned PX maintenance loss was significant, and PX supply was tight. But as PX efficiency recovers, supply will increase. PTA supply will also increase slightly, and polyester inventory is high. In the long - term, with new PTA capacity release, over - capacity pressure will emerge, and high - price chasing is not recommended [5]. Pig - Market data: On May 26, the national average pork price in agricultural product wholesale markets was 20.60 yuan/kg, a 1.7% decrease from last Friday; eggs were 7.74 yuan/kg, a 2.1% decrease [6]. - Market situation: The national pig price rose overall. After the price decline, farmers held prices, and some second - fattening activities increased. Slaughterhouses purchased as needed, and some slaughter volumes increased slightly. Short - term long trading can be tried, and farmers can sell for hedging according to the slaughter rhythm [6]. Palm Oil - Market data: As of May 23, 2025, the total commercial inventory of three major oils (soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil) in key regions in China was 1.8018 million tons, a 0.67 - million - ton decrease (0.37% decline) from last week, and an 80,900 - ton increase (4.70% increase) year - on - year [6]. - Market situation: Indonesia's export tariff increase and the plan to implement B50 in 2026 affected the market. In China, the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is inverted, and some markets are short of spot goods. Downstream demand is for rigid needs, and trading volume increased slightly. Short - term price is expected to oscillate, and high - selling and low - buying operations are recommended [6]. Soybean - Market data: Consulting firm Datagro estimates Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production to reach 172 million tons (previously 171.2 million tons) and corn production to be 132.7 million tons (previously 131.7 million tons) [7]. - Market situation: A large amount of South American soybeans arriving at ports can meet processing needs. Spring sowing in Chinese production areas has started. Farmers' willingness to sell is increasing, but the supply at the grass - roots level is running out, and consumption is in the off - season. Domestic soybean prices are expected to be stable. It is recommended to wait for a price pull - back to go long on soybean No. 1 [7]. Gold - Market news: Trump's tariff policy is uncertain, and the market's risk - aversion sentiment is rising. The US dollar index is falling, which boosts gold. Powell's speech also adds more possibilities to future monetary policies [9]. - Market situation: Gold is expected to be bullish in the short - term, and the medium - term situation needs further observation. Attention should be paid to the progress of the trade war [9]. Coke - Market data: On May 26, the coke market price was weak. Mainstream steel mills in Hebei and Tianjin proposed a second - round price cut, which is expected to be implemented this Wednesday [9]. - Market situation: Coking coal prices are weak, with sufficient supply and a risk of further price cuts. Steel mills' iron - water daily output is decreasing, and their coke inventory is high, accelerating the coke price cut. Coke prices are expected to be weak in the short - term [9]. Rebar - Market data: On May 26, the domestic steel market declined. The ex - factory price of common billets in Tangshan Qian'an Songting Iron and Steel decreased 10 yuan to 2,930 yuan/ton. Seven domestic steel mills lowered the ex - factory price of construction steel by 20 - 30 yuan/ton. The average price of 20mm third - grade earthquake - resistant rebar in 31 major cities was 3,261 yuan/ton, a 27 - yuan decrease from the previous trading day [10]. - Market situation: The supply - demand fundamentals are weakening. Spot prices are falling, and the profits of long and short - process production are decreasing. Iron - water output is decreasing. Demand is weakening both month - on - month and year - on - year, mainly due to the real - estate sector. The rebar market is expected to be weak in the short - term [10]. Iron Ore - Market data: The total inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports across the country is 139.8783 million tons, a 1.7826 - million - ton decrease from the previous period; the daily average port clearance volume is 3.2709 million tons, a 32,000 - ton increase; the number of ships at ports is 87, an increase of 4 [10]. - Market situation: Iron - water output is decreasing, and the macro - sentiment is weakening, leading to a price decline. In the short - term, iron ore supply is decreasing, and demand from steel enterprises has little short - term pressure to cut production. Port inventory is decreasing significantly. The short - term supply - demand is balanced, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [10]. Treasury Bonds - Market data: Most money - market interest rates are rising. The weighted average interest rate of inter - bank pledged repurchase is 1.5113% for 1 - day (a 5.39 - BP decrease), 1.6545% for 7 - day (a 6.85 - BP increase), 1.6892% for 14 - day (a 2.25 - BP increase), and 1.66% for 1 - month (unchanged) [11]. - Market situation: Rising money - market interest rates are negative for the bond market. Bond issuance is basically completed, and the supply shock is easing. The economic downward pressure is still large, and expanding the domestic cycle is important. The bond market's main logic is not clear, and the stock - bond seesaw is the main factor. A mid - term slightly bullish and oscillating trend is expected [11].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The tariff policies of Trump have introduced uncertainties, leading to an increase in market risk - aversion sentiment, which is favorable for precious metals in the short - term, while the medium - term trend requires further observation of the trade war's progress [1]. - For various commodities, their short - term price trends are affected by factors such as supply and demand, production capacity utilization, and market sentiment, with most showing a tendency of short - term weakening or oscillating [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Trump's tariff threats have increased market risk - aversion sentiment, and Powell's speech has added more possibilities to future monetary policies. Precious metals are bullish in the short - term, and the medium - term trend depends on the trade war [1]. - **Silver**: The Fed's monetary policy remains in a wait - and - see mode. With the decline of US stocks and the resurgence of risk - aversion sentiment, the fundamentals are bearish for silver. It is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in the medium - term [8]. Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda plant is operating at a high level, with stable expected operation this week and a decrease in enterprise inventory. The downstream alumina has low profits, and the replenishment demand is expected to slow down. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [1]. - **Methanol**: The coal price is expected to be weak, and the domestic methanol operation is expected to remain at a high level. The downstream demand is stable, and the port inventory may continue to accumulate. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [5]. - **Soda Ash**: The domestic soda ash market is stabilizing, with a narrow adjustment in supply and general downstream demand. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term [6]. Metals - **Rebar**: The production of five major steel products has increased slightly, the apparent consumption has decreased, and the supply - demand pressure has increased slightly. The steel market may have weak supply and demand in the short - term, and the steel price is expected to continue to oscillate weakly [3]. - **Coke**: The coking profit is continuously recovering, and the supply is increasing. The iron - water production is slightly decreasing, and the coke consumption remains high. The coke price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term due to the approaching off - season of steel demand and the expected reduction of steel mill profits [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore supply increase is not obvious, and the supply - demand is balanced. With the recent macro - level positive news, the iron ore price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [4]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Indonesia's export tariff increase and other news have affected the market sentiment. The domestic spot basis is stable, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate [8]. - **Soybeans**: The price drivers of US soybeans are uncertain. The domestic soybean planting is nearly half - completed, and the old - bean inventory is tight. It is recommended to wait for a callback to go long on soybean No. 1 [9]. - **Pigs**: The national pig price first fell and then rose over the weekend. The market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the price is adjusting weakly. It is recommended to wait and see, and farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to the slaughter rhythm [9]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: Tariffs, the US - Iran nuclear agreement negotiation, and other factors have brought uncertainties to the market. The short - term pressure is not large, and the mid - term trend depends on the implementation of OPEC+ policies [10]. - **Rubber**: The rubber raw materials are resistant to price drops in the short - term due to delayed tapping in Thailand and heavy rain in Southeast Asia. However, the overall expectation is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [12]. Others - **PTA**: The restart of PX and PTA maintenance devices will lead to a slight increase in domestic supply. The polyester inventory is still high, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm needs further observation. It is not recommended to chase the high price in the long - term [13]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market issuance is basically completed, and the supply shock has eased. The economic downward pressure is still large, and the bond market is expected to oscillate slightly bullishly in the medium - term [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The Trump tax - cut bill has led to the selling of US Treasury bonds and a decline in the US dollar, boosting precious metals, but the market is also concerned about Powell's semi - annual policy hearing, and precious metals may enter a high - level oscillation in the medium term [2]. - The steel market shows a weak balance in the short term, and steel prices may continue to oscillate weakly in a narrow range. With the decline in steel mill profits, the willingness to increase production is not strong, and the prices of coking coal and coke are weak, while iron ore prices are firm [2]. - The coking coal market is oscillating downward, with a loose supply situation, and it is expected to remain weak in the short term [4]. - The iron ore market has weakening demand and increasing supply pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate, with the operation logic switching between strong reality and weak expectation [4]. - The methanol market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with the upper pressure at the 2260 line [5]. - The soda ash market is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the lower support at the 1260 line [6]. - The caustic soda market is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the lower support at the 2490 line [8]. - The silver market is recommended to adopt a medium - term wide - range oscillation and slightly bearish strategy [8]. - The bond market is recommended to adopt a medium - term oscillation and slightly bullish strategy [8]. - The short - term pressure on the crude oil market is not large, and long - term attention should be paid to the progress of the US - Iran and Russia - Ukraine negotiations and OPEC+ production increases [9]. - The rubber market is expected to oscillate weakly, and short - term trading is recommended [9]. - The PTA market is expected to have a slight increase in domestic supply in the medium - to - long term, with the pressure of over - capacity emerging, and a cautious and bearish attitude is recommended at high levels [10]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Gold - The Trump tax - cut bill plans to cut taxes by more than $4 trillion and reduce spending by at least $1.5 trillion in the next decade, raising the US debt ceiling by $4 trillion. It has led to the selling of US Treasury bonds and a decline in the US dollar, boosting precious metals. The market is also concerned about Powell's semi - annual policy hearing, and gold may enter a high - level oscillation in the medium term [2]. Steel (including rebar, coking coal, iron ore) Rebar - As of the week of May 22, rebar production was 231.48 million tons, an increase of 4.95 million tons (2.19%) from the previous week; factory inventory was 187.76 million tons, an increase of 2.77 million tons (1.5%); social inventory was 416.46 million tons, a decrease of 18.42 million tons (4.24%); apparent demand was 247.13 million tons, a decrease of 13.16 million tons (5.06%). The steel market shows a weak balance in the short term, and steel prices may continue to oscillate weakly in a narrow range [2]. Coking Coal - The operating rate of 110 coal washing plants was 62.36%, an increase of 0.27% from the previous period; the daily average output was 52.79 million tons, a decrease of 0.03 million tons; the raw coal inventory was 316.48 million tons, an increase of 10.97 million tons; the clean coal inventory was 214.74 million tons, an increase of 11.48 million tons. The coking coal market is oscillating downward, with a loose supply situation, and it is expected to remain weak in the short term [4]. Iron Ore - The total inventory of imported sinter powder of 114 steel mills was 2675.03 million tons, a decrease of 39.64 million tons from the previous period. The total daily consumption of imported sinter powder was 117.1 million tons, a decrease of 0.72 million tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 22.84, a decrease of 0.20. The iron ore market has weakening demand and increasing supply pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate, with the operation logic switching between strong reality and weak expectation [4]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang was 2305 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton; the methanol operating rate was 87.04%, a weekly decrease of 1.62%; the total downstream capacity utilization rate was 72.04%, a weekly increase of 1.45%; the inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 49.04 million tons, a weekly increase of 0.65 million tons; the inventory of sample methanol production enterprises was 33.6 million tons, a weekly increase of 0.02 million tons; the orders to be delivered of sample enterprises were 23.52 million tons, a weekly decrease of 3.84 million tons. The methanol market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with the upper pressure at the 2260 line [5]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy soda ash nationwide was 1422.5 yuan/ton, with relatively stable prices recently; the weekly output of soda ash was 66.38 million tons, a decrease of 2.06% from the previous period; the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 167.68 million tons, a decrease of 2.06% from the previous period; the operating rate of float glass was 75.24%, a weekly decrease of 0.22%; the average price of float glass nationwide was 1240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton from the previous day; the total inventory of float glass sample enterprises nationwide was 6776.9 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 0.46% from the previous period. The soda ash market is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the lower support at the 1260 line [6]. Caustic Soda - The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 850 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; the chlorine - alkali profit was 358 yuan/ton; the weekly capacity utilization rate of caustic soda was 84.1%, an increase of 1.5%; a 720,000 - ton/year chlorine - alkali plant of Shanghai Chlor - Alkali was under maintenance for about one month; the weekly inventory of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 40.09 million tons, a decrease of 3.61%; the weekly operating rate of downstream alumina was 75%, a decrease of 1%; the weekly operating rate of viscose staple fiber was 80.3%, a decrease of 0.35%. The caustic soda market is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the lower support at the 2490 line [7][8]. Silver - Fed Governor Waller said that the Fed will not buy bonds in primary auctions. If the impact of tariffs stabilizes, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates in the second half of 2025. The market has renewed expectations for Fed interest rate cuts, and the silver market is recommended to adopt a medium - term wide - range oscillation and slightly bearish strategy [8]. Treasury Bonds - The central bank will conduct a 500 - billion - yuan MLF operation on May 23, with a net investment of 375 billion yuan after deducting the 125 - billion - yuan maturity this month, which is the third consecutive month of incremental roll - over. The bond market is expected to oscillate slightly bullishly in the medium term, with the stock - bond seesaw as the main logic [8]. Crude Oil - There is still uncertainty in the US - Iran nuclear negotiations and possible geopolitical conflicts. In the short term, the pressure on crude oil is not large, and long - term attention should be paid to the progress of the US - Iran and Russia - Ukraine negotiations and OPEC+ production increases. Short - term short - term participation is recommended [9]. Rubber - Thai rubber raw material prices are falling, while Hainan raw material prices are improving. The global light - vehicle sales in April 2025 maintained an upward trend. The rubber market has strong raw materials but weak finished products. The tire operating rate has increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year, and the rubber price is expected to oscillate weakly. Short - term trading is recommended [9]. PTA - The CFR price of PX is 834 US dollars/ton, and the PX - N is 259 US dollars/ton; the price of PTA in East China is 4870 yuan/ton, and the cash - flow cost of PTA is 4705 yuan/ton; the social inventory of PTA is 373.16 million tons, a decrease of 14.97 million tons from the previous statistical period; the PTA capacity utilization rate is adjusted to 77.22%; the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of polyester is around 90.4%. The PTA market is expected to have a slight increase in domestic supply in the medium - to - long term, with the pressure of over - capacity emerging, and a cautious and bearish attitude is recommended at high levels [10].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Short - term, crude oil has little pressure; long - term, focus on the progress of US - Iran and Russia - Ukraine negotiations and OPEC+ production increase. Short - term trading is recommended [1] - Gold is bullish in the short - term and may oscillate at high levels in the medium - term. Pay attention to the upcoming US Treasury bond redemption issues [1] - In the medium - and long - term, as new PTA production capacity is released, the pressure of over - capacity becomes apparent, and the upward price space may be limited [3] - Rubber prices are difficult to fall significantly and tend to oscillate. Short - term trading is recommended [4] - The bond market has certain support, and a medium - term slightly bullish and oscillating view is appropriate [5] - Silver is bearish due to the US economic downturn, but it follows the fluctuation of gold. A medium - term wide - range and slightly bullish oscillating view is appropriate [5] - The steel market is intertwined with long and short factors, and steel prices may continue to oscillate weakly and narrowly [6] - Iron ore prices maintain an oscillating trend under the situation of strong reality and weak expectation. Pay attention to the change of hot metal [8] - The coking coal market is expected to continue the weak trend in the short - term [8] - The pig price is expected to continue the weak trend, with limited downward space. It is recommended to wait and see or look for long - position opportunities [9] - Palm oil prices oscillate in the short - term. High - selling and low - buying operations are maintained [10] - Methanol 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long - position on pullbacks [11] - Soda ash 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long - position on pullbacks [13] - Caustic soda 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term short - position on rebounds [13] Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Crude Oil - EIA data shows that crude oil and refined oil inventories have increased. The fifth round of Iran - US negotiations will be held on May 23. Uranium enrichment in Iran will continue regardless of the agreement [1] Gold - The US has experienced a "triple kill" in stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange. The auction of 20 - year US Treasury bonds was weaker than expected, and the dollar index has fallen, causing gold to rise [1] PTA - PX CFR is at $826/ton, PX - N is $257/ton. The average polyester sales rate is 29.6%. There is an expectation of restarting previous PTA maintenance devices, and the supply is slightly increasing [3] Rubber - Thai raw material prices are given. As of May 18, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory has decreased. Rubber raw materials are strong while finished products are weak [4] Treasury Bonds - Eight departments have jointly issued measures to support small and micro - enterprise financing, and major banks have lowered deposit interest rates, which support the bond market [5] Silver - Target's Q1 sales declined, and it expects low - single - digit sales decline in fiscal year 2025. The US economic downturn and the Treasury bond issue increase market pessimism [5] Rebar - On May 21, domestic steel market oscillated. The average price of 20mm third - grade seismic rebar decreased by 2 yuan/ton. The macro - environment is moderately positive, but high temperature and heavy rain affect steel sales [6] Iron Ore - From May 12 - 18, the total inventory of seven major ports in Australia and Brazil increased by 696,000 tons. The demand for iron ore has declined from the high level, while the supply remains high [8] Coking Coal - The opening rate of 110 coal washing plants decreased by 0.34%. Coal mine inventories have increased, and downstream steel mills have initiated the first round of coke price cuts [8] Pig - As of May 21, the national average ex - factory price of ternary pigs decreased by 0.02 yuan/kg. The market transaction was average, and the terminal's ability to accept high prices was limited [9] Palm Oil - From May 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 3.72%. Indonesia plans to raise the export tax, and the domestic spot basis is stable [10] Methanol - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is stable. The opening rate decreased by 3.7%. Port inventory increased by 0.65 tons, and enterprise orders to be delivered decreased by 3.84 tons [11] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy soda ash is stable. The opening rate is 80.06%. Factory inventory increased by 0.63%. The opening rate of float glass decreased by 0.22%, and its inventory increased by 0.77% [11][13] Caustic Soda - The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is stable. The opening rate decreased by 1.3%. Enterprise inventory increased by 7.08%. The opening rate of downstream industries decreased [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The Fed faces various issues, and the gold market will experience high - level volatility. Attention should be paid to the divergence between gold and silver [2]. - In the short term, PTA may continue its strong - side oscillation, but in the long term, the price increase space may be limited due to new capacity release [2]. - Steel prices are expected to be weak and volatile in the short term due to weak demand and increased supply - demand pressure [4]. - For iron ore, there is an opportunity to short after the short - term rebound ends, and it is recommended to short the 2509 contract at high levels [4]. - Coke prices are expected to be weak and volatile in the short term as the fundamental contradiction shifts to the demand side [5]. - The bond market has some support, but a mid - term slightly bearish and oscillating view is appropriate [5]. - Silver may have a mid - term wide - range oscillation with a slightly bearish trend, and it may deviate from the gold market [6]. - The decline of the national pig price has limited downward space, and it is recommended to wait and see or look for long - position opportunities [7]. - Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate in the short term with limited downward space [7]. - Domestic soybeans are expected to maintain a stable price in the short term, and it is recommended to go long on dips [7]. - Methanol 09 contract is expected to be weak and oscillating in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips [8]. - Soda ash 09 contract is expected to be weak and oscillating in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips [9]. - Crude oil has little short - term pressure, and long - term attention should be paid to relevant negotiations and OPEC+ production increases [10]. - Caustic soda 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. - For rubber, a cautious short - selling at high levels strategy is recommended, considering relevant negotiations and production issues [12]. Summary by Variety Gold - Atlanta Fed President Bostic warns that inflation is developing in a worrying direction and expects a rate cut this year. Moody's downgrading of the US rating may have a negative impact on US companies and households. The Fed's rate - cut issue is more uncertain, and gold will be in high - level oscillation [2]. PTA - PXCFR is reported at $837 per ton, and PX - N is $272 per ton. Asian and domestic PX loads have decreased, with Asian PX load dropping 3.1% to 67.5% and domestic PX load dropping 4.5% to 74.1%. PXN has significantly repaired, and PTA may continue its strong - side oscillation in the short term but face limited upward space in the long term [2]. Steel - On May 19, the domestic steel market fell weakly. Due to the real - estate adjustment, foreign trade impact, and approaching off - season, steel demand is expected to be weak. Steel prices may be weak and volatile in the short term [4]. Iron Ore - From May 12 - 18, the arrival volume of iron ore at Chinese ports decreased. Macro - positive sentiment has been released, and there is an opportunity to short after the short - term rebound ends. It is recommended to short the 2509 contract at high levels with a reference resistance of 750 yuan per ton [4]. Coke - The daily coke production of 247 steel mills is flat, and inventory has decreased. Supply is increasing, while iron - water production has slightly decreased. The first - round price cut has caused pessimism, and coke prices may be weak and volatile in the short term [5]. Treasury Bonds - Multiple banks will lower RMB deposit rates, which supports the bond market. The bond market's logic is unclear, and a mid - term slightly bearish and oscillating view is appropriate [5]. Silver - The US government's tax - cut policy may boost the economy and risk appetite, which is beneficial to silver. However, the global economic downturn is negative for silver, and a mid - term wide - range oscillation with a slightly bearish trend is expected [6]. Live Pigs - On May 19, the national pig price decreased slightly. After the middle of the month, supply exceeded demand, and the price adjustment was weak. The downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see or look for long - position opportunities [7]. Palm Oil - As of May 16, the commercial inventory of three major oils increased. China's palm - oil imports in April increased year - on - year. The domestic spot basis is stable, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. Soybeans - The US soybean planting rate and emergence rate are higher than expected. The price drivers of US soybeans are uncertain, and domestic soybeans are expected to be stable in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips [7]. Methanol - The price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang has decreased. The start - up rate has decreased, and the port inventory is expected to increase. The methanol 09 contract is expected to be weak and oscillating in the short term [8]. Soda Ash - The price of heavy soda is stable, the start - up rate has increased, and the inventory has risen. The float - glass market is weak, and the soda - ash 09 contract is expected to be weak and oscillating in the short term [9]. Crude Oil - Iran's stance on nuclear - related rights is clear, Moody's downgraded the US rating, and China's economic data is positive. Short - term pressure is small, and long - term attention should be paid to relevant negotiations and OPEC+ production increases [10]. Caustic Soda - The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong has increased. The start - up rate is stable, and the inventory has risen. The caustic - soda 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [11]. Rubber - Thai and Chinese rubber raw - material prices vary. The inventory in Qingdao has decreased. The demand for rubber is weaker than last year. A cautious short - selling at high levels strategy is recommended, considering relevant negotiations and production issues [12].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The cost - side coal price of methanol is expected to be weak, with high - level domestic methanol operations expected. The port methanol inventory may increase. The methanol 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [1]. - The Fed's potential staff cuts and new policy assumptions make the Fed's interest - rate cut issue more uncertain. Gold will be in high - level oscillations [1]. - For coking coal, supply remains high while demand is expected to be weak, and the upstream coal mines still face inventory - accumulation pressure. The short - term futures performance is expected to fluctuate weakly [3]. - The tariff reduction on iron ore brings unexpected positive news, and the ore price oscillates upward. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate [3]. - The supply - demand fundamentals of rebar strengthen this week. The export recovery expectation rises after China - US tariff negotiations. The rebar price is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation [4]. - For live pigs, the supply is strong while the demand is weak. The short - term price is mainly in a weak adjustment [4]. - The domestic palm oil spot basis is stable with a slight decline, and the short - term price oscillates [5]. - The domestic soda ash market operates stably, and the soda ash 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. - The increase in money - market interest rates is negative for the bond market. The bond market is expected to oscillate slightly bearishly in the medium term [7]. - The fundamentals are negative for silver, and it is expected to have a wide - range and slightly bearish oscillation in the medium term [8]. - The short - term pressure on crude oil is not large, and long - term attention should be paid to relevant negotiations and OPEC+ production increases [8]. - Rubber raw materials are strong while finished products are weak. A cautious short - selling strategy at high levels is recommended [9]. - Although the PTA market is boosted by the China - US talks, the long - term supply - demand contradiction is difficult to ease, and short - term participation is recommended [9]. Summaries by Product Methanol - Market price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2375 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. Methanol operating rate is 88.47%, down 3.7% week - on - week. Downstream total capacity utilization is 71.01%, down 0.48% week - on - week. Port inventory is 48.39 tons, down 7.8 tons week - on - week. Production enterprise inventory is 33.58 tons, up 3.19 tons week - on - week. Order backlog is 27.36 tons, up 3.58 tons week - on - week [1]. Gold - The Fed plans to cut staff by 10% in the next few years, and Powell proposed new assumptions about the Fed's future policy framework, making the Fed's interest - rate cut issue more uncertain [1]. Coking Coal - Independent coking enterprises' capacity utilization is 75.70%, up 0.26%. Daily coke output is 67.15, up 0.23. Coke inventory is 94.31, down 0.13. Coking coal inventory is 884.93, down 31.69. Coking coal available days are 9.9 days, down 0.39 days [3]. Iron Ore - National 45 - port imported iron ore inventory is 14166.09 tons, down 72.62 tons week - on - week. Daily port clearance volume is 323.89 tons, up 8.68 tons. Number of ships at port is 83, up 4 [3]. Rebar - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate is 84.15%, down 0.47 percentage points week - on - week and up 2.65 percentage points year - on - year. Daily hot - metal output is 244.77 tons, down 0.87 tons [4]. Live Pigs - As of May 16, the average slaughter weight is 124.12 kg, unchanged from last week. Weekly slaughter operating rate is 27.9%, down 0.62%. Profit from purchasing piglets for fattening is 56.69 yuan/head, up 24.99 yuan/head. Self - breeding and self - fattening profit is 122.23 yuan/head, up 8.73 yuan/head. Piglet price is 511.9 yuan/head, up 6.2 yuan/head [4]. Palm Oil - Weekly average trading volume is 626 tons, compared with 2071.5 tons in the previous week [5]. Soda Ash - National heavy - soda mainstream price is 1422.5 yuan/ton. Soda ash operating rate is 80.06%. Total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 171.2 tons, up 0.63% week - on - week. Float - glass operating rate is 75.24%, down 0.22% week - on - week [5][7]. Treasury Bonds - Money - market interest rates mostly rise. The weighted average interest rate of inter - bank pledged repo has an increase: 1 - day term up 21.93 BP to 1.6313%, 7 - day term up 11.29 BP to 1.6374%, 14 - day term up 6.68 BP to 1.6363%, 1 - month term up 8.2 BP to 1.65% [7]. Silver - The US Treasury Secretary responded to Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating, and the market's expectation of US economic growth weakens [8]. Crude Oil - As of May 16, the number of US online drilling oil wells is 473, down 1 from the previous week and 24 from the same period last year [8]. Rubber - Thai raw material prices continue to rise slightly. Hainan's rubber tapping is affected by rainfall. Tire operating rate rises month - on - month but drops significantly year - on - year [9]. PTA - PXCFR is reported at 854 dollars/ton, PX - N is 202 dollars/ton. East China PTA is reported at 5030 yuan/ton. PTA average operating rate is 77.07%, down 1.41% from last week. Polyester average load is 74.63%, down 17.37% from last week. Weaving factory load is 72.2%, unchanged from last week [9].

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-铁矿石】2025年5月上旬，重点统计钢铁企业钢材 库存量1606万吨，环比上一旬增加77万吨，增长5.0%；比年初 增加369万吨，增长29.8%；比上月同旬增加2万吨，增长0.1%； 比去年同旬减少22万吨，下降1.4%，比前年同旬减少155万吨， 下降8.8%。评：主力期价偏强震荡，量缩仓增。现阶段，得益 于市场情绪回暖，贴水修复逻辑支撑下矿价领涨产业链，短期 维持偏强运行，但鉴于需求趋于触顶，而供应维持高位，基本 面并未好转，上行驱动不强，高位谨慎看涨，谨防逻辑切换至 现实端。 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0010784 姓名：曹宝琴 邮箱：caobaoqin@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3008987 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012851 姓名：蒯三可 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货投资咨询从业证书号:Z0015369 姓名：丛燕飞 邮箱：congyanfei@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3020240 期货投资咨询从业证书号:Z0015666 【短评-黄金 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-铁矿石】5月14日，山东港口进口铁矿价格较上一 工作日价格偏强运行，累计上涨10-15。目前PB粉主流在778- 780；超特粉主流在645附近；PB块主流在915附近。评：主力期 价持续上行，量仓扩大。现阶段，得益于市场情绪回暖，贴水 修复逻辑支撑下矿价强势上涨，短期维持偏强运行态势，但矿 石需求趋于触顶，且供应维持高位，基本面仍易转弱，上行驱 动不强，高位谨慎看涨，谨防逻辑切换至现实端。 【短评-原油】欧佩克月报显示，4月份，OPEC原油总产量 下降6.2万桶/日，至2671万桶/日，而"欧佩克+"国家总产量 下降10.6万桶/日，至4092万桶/日。哈萨克斯坦4月份石油产量 下降4.1万桶/日，至182万桶/日；欧佩克表示，2025年，欧佩 克+以外国家的供应量将增加约80万桶/日，低于上月预测的90 万桶/日；OPEC预计2025年石油需求将增加130万桶/日，2026年 增加128万桶/日，这一预测高于国际能源署估计的72.6万桶/ 日。评：欧佩克同意增加供应的八个国家上个月总共只增加了 2.5万桶/日，远低于计划的13.8万桶/日，该组织对全球贸易形 势的发展持 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Report's Core View The report presents the daily data of various futures and spot products, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, open interests, basis, spreads, and other related indicators, providing a comprehensive view of the market conditions on May 14, 2025. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Steel and Related Products - **Futures Prices**: All steel - related futures showed price increases, with iron ore having the highest increase rate (2.43% for iron ore main contract 2509) [5]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of most products also rose, except for coke and coking coal which remained unchanged [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of most products decreased, indicating the narrowing gap between futures and spot prices [6]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: Some spreads and ratios changed, such as the narrowing of the 05 - 10 spreads for most products and the decrease in the steel mill's profit on the disk [7]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Futures Prices**: All energy and chemical futures prices increased, with methanol having the highest increase rate (3.68% for methanol main contract 2509) [11][16]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of most products rose, except for rubber which slightly decreased [12]. - **Basis**: The basis of different products showed different trends, with PTA's basis increasing significantly [12]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The spreads between main and far - month contracts of some products changed, and the PXN ratio increased [13]. Financial Futures - **Futures Prices**: Stock index futures prices increased, while bond futures prices decreased [21]. - **Basis**: The basis of stock index futures and precious metals futures increased, except for silver which had a large increase in basis from a negative value [22]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The spreads between different - term bond futures and the ratio of gold to silver index changed [23]. Agricultural Products - **Futures Prices**: Most agricultural product futures prices increased, with palm oil having the highest increase rate (2.17% for palm oil main contract) [26]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of different products had different trends [28]. - **Basis**: The basis of most products decreased, except for eggs which increased [28]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The ratios such as pig - grain ratio and oil - meal ratio changed slightly [29]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Basis**: The basis of non - ferrous metals showed different trends, with some decreasing and some increasing slightly [31]. - **Ratios**: The ratios between different non - ferrous metals changed slightly [32].

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-铁矿石】05月05日-05月11日Mysteel澳洲巴西铁矿 发运总量2422.5万吨，环比减少117.9万吨。澳洲发运量1797.2 万吨，环比增加28.0万吨，其中澳洲发往中国的量1593.8万 吨，环比增加75.4万吨。巴西发运量625.2万吨，环比减少 146.0万吨。评：本周澳巴发运环比下降，到港量同步下滑，整 体供应收紧；需求方面，铁水产量仍在高位，需求环比继续增 加；库存来看，港口库存小幅去化，钢厂库存同步走低。目前 铁矿供需结构仍然偏强，情绪回补下，预计呈现偏强运行状 态。维持长线偏空思路，短线等待反弹行情结束后的做空机 会。 【短评-黄金】美国财长贝森特淡化了与欧盟迅速达成贸易 协议的可能性，称欧盟存在"集体行动问题"，这阻碍了谈 判。贝森特对与亚洲贸易伙伴达成协议较为乐观，称美国已与 日本进行了"非常富有成效的讨论"，并称赞与印尼"非常积 极"的沟通。评：美国关税政策仍然具有较大不确定性，美联 储官员对降息依然保持较大谨慎。美元指数反弹，利空黄金。 黄金下方空间和上方空间均有限，黄金中期高位震荡略偏空思 路为宜。 投资咨询中心 2025年05月14日 研 ...