Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - For rapeseed oil, it is recommended to be mainly bullish. The AAFC estimates Canada's rapeseed production in 2025/26 to be 20.1 million tons, with a doubled carry - over stock of 2.2 million tons. China's anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may impact exports. There are supply risks in Indonesia and strong palm oil export data from Malaysia. In the short - term, the domestic vegetable oil supply is ample, but the low mill operation rate and fewer rapeseed purchases in Q3 reduce supply pressure. The anti - dumping measures further weaken long - term supply [8][9]. - For rapeseed meal, it is recommended to take a bullish approach and pay attention to Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. The US Department of Agriculture's downward adjustment of US soybean harvest area is bullish, but the good soybean condition restricts prices. Domestically, the high mill operation rate and increasing soybean meal inventory suppress prices, but the uncertainty of Q4 purchases and less near - month rapeseed arrivals support the market. The anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed also weaken long - term supply, but the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens demand expectations [11][12]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Rapeseed Oil** - Strategy: Participate with a bullish bias [8]. - Market Review: This week, rapeseed oil futures closed higher with the 01 contract closing at 9,890 yuan/ton, up 133 yuan/ton from last week [9]. - Outlook: AAFC's new production and inventory estimates, China's anti - dumping measures, international palm oil factors, and domestic supply - demand conditions affect the market. The price has a slight pull - back and is now in a narrow - range oscillation [9]. - **Rapeseed Meal** - Strategy: Adopt a bullish mindset and monitor Sino - US and Sino - Canadian relations [11]. - Market Review: This week, rapeseed meal futures fluctuated widely with the 01 contract closing at 2,543 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from last week [12]. - Outlook: USDA's report, good US soybean condition, domestic soybean meal inventory, rapeseed supply, and substitution effect of soybean meal all influence the market. The market is mainly trading long - term supply issues and is in a bullish and volatile state [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Position and Price** - Rapeseed oil futures closed higher with a total position of 284,285 lots, down 12,211 lots from last week. The top 20 net position changed from net short to net long (+6,463) [17][23]. - Rapeseed meal futures fluctuated widely with a total position of 421,028 lots, down 27,582 lots from last week. The top 20 net short position decreased (- 8,755) [17][23]. - **Warehouse Receipts** - Rapeseed oil registered warehouse receipts are 3,487 lots, and rapeseed meal registered warehouse receipts are 8,253 lots [29][30]. - **Spot Price and Basis** - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10,010 yuan/ton, up from last week, and the basis is +120 yuan/ton [37]. - The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu is 2,550 yuan/ton, slightly down from last week, and the basis is +7 yuan/ton [43]. - **Futures Month - to - Month Spread** - The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil is +179 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed meal is +74 yuan/ton, both at medium levels in recent years [50]. - **Futures - Spot Ratio** - The 01 contract ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal is 3.889, and the average spot price ratio is 3.81 [53]. - **Price Spread between Oils and Meals** - The 01 contract spread of rapeseed oil to soybean oil is 1,432 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed oil to palm oil is 298 yuan/ton, both with relative oscillations this week [62]. - The 01 contract spread of soybean meal to rapeseed meal is 545 yuan/ton, and the spot spread as of Thursday is 460 yuan/ton [68]. 3.3 Industry Chain - **Rapeseed** - **Supply - Inventory and Arrival**: As of August 15, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory in mills is 150,000 tons. The estimated rapeseed arrivals in August, September, and October 2025 are 200,000 tons, 100,000 tons, and 150,000 tons respectively [74]. - **Supply - Pressing Profit**: As of August 21, the spot pressing profit of imported rapeseed is +883 yuan/ton [78]. - **Supply - Pressing Volume**: As of the 33rd week of 2025, the rapeseed pressing volume in coastal main mills is 49,000 tons, down 13,000 tons from last week, with an operation rate of 11.99% [82]. - **Supply - Monthly Arrival**: In July 2025, China's rapeseed imports are 176,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 56.63% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.85% [86]. - **Rapeseed Oil** - **Supply - Inventory and Import**: As of the 33rd week of 2025, the domestic imported and pressed rapeseed oil inventory is 744,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.68%. In July 2025, rapeseed oil imports are 133,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.86% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.67% [90]. - **Demand - Consumption and Production**: As of June 30, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 4.769 million tons, and the catering revenue is 470.76 billion yuan [94]. - **Demand - Contract Volume**: As of the 33rd week of 2025, the domestic imported and pressed rapeseed oil contract volume is 101,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.39% [98]. - **Rapeseed Meal** - **Supply - Inventory**: As of the 33rd week of 2025, the domestic imported and pressed rapeseed meal inventory is 26,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.39% [102]. - **Supply - Import**: In July 2025, rapeseed meal imports are 183,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.00% and a month - on - month decrease of 87,200 tons [106]. - **Demand - Feed Production**: As of June 30, 2025, the monthly feed output is 2.9377 million tons [110]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis As of August 22, the implied volatility of rapeseed meal options is 21.7%, down 3.03% from last week, at a slightly medium level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying [113].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of Apple Futures 2510 declined and adjusted, with a weekly drop of 1.15%. According to preliminary estimates based on bagging volume survey data, the national apple production in the new season is expected to be 37.3664 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.35%. As of August 20, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 394,500 tons, a decrease of 65,600 tons from last week. Although the inventory of old apples is low, the arrival of early - maturing apples has impacted the inventory clearance speed, and the sales speed has slightly slowed down. The price of early - maturing apples is chaotic, and the transaction price has slightly declined. Overall, the low inventory of old apples still supports the price, but the increase in the listing volume of Gala apples restricts the price increase, showing a range - bound market. The support level for the Apple 2510 contract is around 7,900 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is around 8,200 yuan/ton [7]. - It is recommended to trade the Apple 2510 contract in the short - term within the range. Future trading should pay attention to the inventory clearance rate, consumption, and new crop production [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of Apple Futures 2510 declined and adjusted this week, with a weekly drop of 1.15% [7][11]. - **Market Outlook**: New - season apple production is expected to increase. Cold - storage inventory is decreasing, but the arrival of early - maturing apples has affected the clearance speed. The price of early - maturing apples is chaotic and has slightly declined. The low inventory of old apples supports the price, but the increase in Gala apples restricts the price increase, showing a range - bound market. The support and resistance levels for the Apple 2510 contract are 7,900 yuan/ton and 8,200 yuan/ton respectively [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Trade the Apple 2510 contract in the short - term within the range. Future trading should focus on the inventory clearance rate, consumption, and new crop production [8]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: This week, the price of Apple Futures 2510 fluctuated and declined, with a weekly drop of 1.15%. As of the end of the week, the net short position of the top 20 in Apple Futures was 0 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 0 [11][17]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 22, 2025, the mainstream price of 80 and above first - and second - grade fruit farmer's goods of bagged Red Fuji in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was 3.7 yuan/jin; the price of bagged Fuji apples of 75 and above in Yiyuan, Shandong was 2.3 yuan/jin [20]. 3.3. Industry Situation and Options - **Supply Side**: As of August 20, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 394,500 tons, a decrease of 65,600 tons from last week. The arrival of early - maturing apples has affected the clearance speed. The storage capacity ratios in Shandong, Shaanxi, and Gansu have all decreased [25]. - **Demand Side**: As of August 21, the average daily number of trucks arriving at major apple wholesale markets in Guangdong in the morning has increased. The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants is 0.4 yuan/jin. As of August 15, 2025, the average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.48 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.32%; the average wholesale price of apples was 9.66 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.31%. The weekly average wholesale price of 5 kinds of fruits was 6.94 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 1.00%. In July 2023, China's fresh apple exports were 50,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25% [29][33][37][40]. - **Options Market**: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options of apples this week is presented in a chart, but no specific data is given [41]. 3.4. Futures - Stock Correlation - Information about the price - earnings ratio of Honghui Fruit is presented in a chart, but no specific data is given [43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests a bearish trading strategy for both corn and corn starch. Corn futures are in a weak trend due to increased US production and inventory, upcoming new - grain harvest in China, and sufficient supply. Corn starch futures also show a weak trend as the industry's operating rate rises while demand is in the off - season, resulting in a supply - demand imbalance [7][8][11][12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Corn**: The main 2511 contract of corn futures closed at 2175 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous week. The USDA raised the production and ending stocks of US corn in the 2025/26 season. The new grain in Northeast China will be on the market in September, and the supply is relatively loose. The spot market price is under pressure, and the overall trend of corn is weak [8] - **Corn Starch**: The main 2511 contract of Dalian corn starch futures closed at 2498 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton from the previous week. The operating rate of the corn starch industry has rebounded, but the downstream demand is in the off - season. As of August 20, the total starch inventory of corn starch enterprises was 133.9 million tons, showing an increase in inventory. The overall trend of starch is weak [12] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position Changes**: The November contract of corn futures closed down with a total position of 955,265 lots, an increase of 126,808 lots from the previous week. The November contract of corn starch futures closed down narrowly with a total position of 202,789 lots, an increase of 64,168 lots from the previous week [16] - **Top 20 Net Position Changes**: The top 20 net position of corn futures was - 97,205, an increase in net short positions compared to the previous week. The top 20 net position of starch futures was - 20,670, also an increase in net short positions compared to the previous week [22] - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 103,290, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 7,450 [28] - **Spot Price and Basis**: As of August 22, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2,373.53 yuan/ton, and the basis between the November active contract of corn and the average spot price was + 198 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2,850 yuan/ton and 2,950 yuan/ton in Shandong, remaining stable this week. The basis between the November contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 352 yuan/ton [33][38] - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 11 - 1 spread of corn was 3 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 11 - 1 spread of starch was - 29 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [44] - **Futures Spread**: The spread between the November contracts of starch and corn was 323 yuan/ton. In the 34th week of 2025, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 336 yuan/ton, a decrease of 64 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [54] - **Substitute Spread**: As of August 20, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2,436.5 yuan/ton, and the average spot price of corn was 2,384.71 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 51.79 yuan/ton. In the 34th week of 2025, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 157 yuan/ton, an increase of 19 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [58] 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Corn Supply**: As of August 15, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 66.9 million tons, a decrease of 7.9 million tons from the previous week, and the foreign trade inventory was 0.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from the previous week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 151.1 million tons, a decrease of 26.3 million tons week - on - week. The shipping volume of the four northern ports was 32.9 million tons, an increase of 8.2 million tons week - on - week. In July 2025, China's ordinary corn imports were 6 million tons, a decrease of 103 million tons compared to the same period last year and a decrease of 10 million tons compared to the previous month. As of August 21, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 28.85 days, a decrease of 0.76 days from the previous week [48][67][71] - **Corn Demand**: As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the pig inventory was 424.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. The inventory of breeding sows was 40.43 million, an increase of 10,000 compared to the previous month. As of August 15, 2025, the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was 28.85 yuan/head, and the breeding profit of purchased piglets was - 157.05 yuan/head. As of August 21, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 46 yuan/ton, and the corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 685 yuan/ton, - 551 yuan/ton in Jilin, and - 168 yuan/ton in Heilongjiang [75][79][84] - **Corn Starch Supply**: As of August 20, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 314.7 million tons, a decrease of 7.5%. From August 14 to August 20, 2025, the national corn processing volume was 54.9 million tons, a decrease of 2.7 million tons from the previous week. The national corn starch output was 27.06 million tons, a decrease of 1.86 million tons from the previous week. The weekly operating rate was 52.3%, a decrease of 3.6% from the previous week. As of August 20, the total starch inventory of corn starch enterprises was 133.9 million tons, an increase of 0.7 million tons from the previous week [88][92] 3.4. Option Market Analysis - As of August 22, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2511 contract of corn was 9.73%, a decrease of 0.38% from the previous week. The implied volatility fluctuated and declined this week, being at a relatively high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [95]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - The alumina market may experience a situation of double - growth in supply and demand, with a slight reduction in social inventory and an increase in exchange inventory. The electrolytic aluminum market may see a situation of stable and slightly increasing supply, temporarily weak demand but expected improvement, and a slight accumulation of industrial inventory. The overall aluminum market may face some pressure [4]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to conduct light - position short - selling transactions for the main contract of Shanghai aluminum at high prices and light - position short - term long - buying transactions for the main contract of alumina at low prices, while paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of cast aluminum first declined and then rose, with a weekly change of +0.05%, closing at 20,175 yuan/ton. The main contract of Shanghai aluminum oscillated weakly, with a weekly change of - 0.67%, closing at 20,630 yuan/ton. The alumina contract oscillated weakly, with a weekly change of - 2.09%, closing at 3,138 yuan/ton [4][5]. - **Market Outlook**: Alumina may face a situation of double - growth in supply and demand. Electrolytic aluminum may see stable and slightly increasing supply, temporarily weak demand but expected improvement [4]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Light - position short - selling transactions for the main contract of Shanghai aluminum at high prices and light - position short - term long - buying transactions for the main contract of alumina at low prices, with attention to operation rhythm and risk control [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Movement**: As of August 22, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai aluminum was 20,650 yuan/ton, down 0.51% from August 15; the closing price of LME aluminum was 2,593 US dollars/ton, down 1.18% from August 15. The alumina futures price was 3,127 yuan/ton, down 1.14% from August 15; the closing price of the main contract of cast aluminum alloy was 20,175 yuan/ton, up 0.05% from August 15 [8][12]. - **Ratio and Spread**: As of August 22, 2025, the Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.95, up 0.11 from August 15. The aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,645 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton from August 15; the copper - aluminum futures spread was 58,060 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan/ton from August 15 [9][20]. - **Position and Inventory**: As of August 22, 2025, the position of Shanghai aluminum was 575,286 lots, down 4.33% from August 15; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum was 4,602 lots, down 10,019 lots from August 15 [15]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 21, 2025, the alumina spot price in Henan, Shanxi, and Guiyang regions decreased slightly. The national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) was 20,450 yuan/ton, up 0.49% from August 15. The spot price of A00 aluminum ingot was 20,750 yuan/ton, up 0.34% from August 15, and the spot premium was 30 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous week [22][23][27]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of August 21, 2025, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 479,525 tons, down 0.03% from August 14; the SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 120,653 tons, up 6.2% from the previous week; the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 540,000 tons, up 2.66% from August 14 [32]. - **Raw Material Import and Inventory**: As of the latest data, the nine - port inventory of domestic bauxite was 27.7 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 220,000 tons. In July 2025, the monthly import of bauxite was 20.063 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.75% and a year - on - year increase of 34.22% [35]. - **Waste Aluminum**: As of the latest data this week, the price of crushed waste aluminum in Shandong region was 15,800 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton. In July 2025, the import volume of waste aluminum and scrap was 160,494.61 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.68%; the export volume was 79.39 tons, a year - on - year increase of 50.91% [41]. - **Alumina**: In July 2025, the alumina output was 7.5649 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%; the cumulative output from January to July was 52.6721 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. The import volume was 125,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.35% and a year - on - year increase of 78.23%; the export volume was 230,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 35.29% and a year - on - year increase of 53.33% [44]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In July 2025, the electrolytic aluminum output was 3.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%; the cumulative output from January to July was 26.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. The import volume was 248,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 91.19%; the cumulative import from January to July was 1.4975 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11% [47][51]. - **Aluminum Products**: In July 2025, the output of aluminum products was 5.4837 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%; the cumulative output from January to July was 38.4699 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. The import volume was 360,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.2%; the export volume was 540,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.6% [55]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: In June 2025, the monthly built - in production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy was 1.26 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.87% and a year - on - year increase of 19.22%. The output was 618,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.48 and a year - on - year increase of 5.49% [58]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In July 2025, the aluminum alloy output was 1.536 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7%; the cumulative output from January to July was 10.628 million tons. The import volume was 69,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.39%; the export volume was 24,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.3% [61]. - **Related Industries**: In July 2025, the real estate development sentiment index was 93.34, a decrease of 0.25 from the previous month and an increase of 1.23 from the same period last year. From January to July 2024, the new housing construction area was 352.06 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.5%; the housing completion area was 250.34 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 21.19%. From January to July 2024, the infrastructure investment increased by 7.29% year - on - year. In July 2025, the Chinese automobile sales volume was 2,593,410 units, a year - on - year increase of 14.66%; the automobile production volume was 2,591,084 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.33% [64][67]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - Given that the aluminum price is expected to experience slight oscillatory pressure in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short the volatility [72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg market continued to decline this week. The closing price of the 2510 contract was 3033 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 149 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week [8]. - Currently, the inventory of laying hens is at a high level, and the pressure of newly - opened laying hens from previous replenishments is large, resulting in sufficient egg supply. The continuous release of cold - storage eggs further increases the supply pressure [8]. - Terminal demand is weak. High - temperature weather makes the market cautious, and demand is sluggish. To reduce inventory, breeding enterprises are more willing to sell at low prices, causing the spot market price to continuously fall short of expectations, and the breeding end has been in a loss state [8]. - With the start of school - opening stockpiling and the Mid - Autumn Festival procurement by food factories, demand is expected to pick up, which may drive up egg prices. However, due to weak spot prices and high - production capacity pressure, the futures price generally maintains a weak trend [8]. - The strategy recommendation is to participate in a bearish manner [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Performance**: The egg price continued to decline this week. The 2510 contract closed at 3033 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 149 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week [8]. - **Supply Situation**: High laying - hen inventory, large pressure from newly - opened laying hens, and continuous release of cold - storage eggs increase supply pressure [8]. - **Demand Situation**: Terminal demand is weak, and high - temperature weather makes the market cautious. However, demand is expected to improve with school - opening stockpiling and Mid - Autumn Festival procurement [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Participate in a bearish manner [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: The 10 - contract of egg futures continued to decline, with a position of 434,281 lots, an increase of 118,589 lots from the previous week. The net position of the top 20 was - 42,652, and the net short position increased compared to last week [14]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 3 [18]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was 3057 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 9 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week. The basis between the active 10 - contract futures price and the spot average price was 24 yuan per ton [24]. - **Futures Inter - Month Spread**: The 10 - 1 spread of egg futures was - 218 yuan per 500 kilograms, at a relatively low level in the same period [28]. - **Related Commodity Spot Prices**: As of August 21, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.03 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables was 4.89 yuan per kilogram [34]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply - Side Indicators**: As of July 31, 2025, the national laying - hen inventory index was 113.18, a month - on - month increase of 1.13%, and the national new - chick index was 78.4, a month - on - month increase of 3.06% [40]. - **Laying - Hen Elimination Indicators**: As of July 31, 2025, the national elimination - laying - hen index was 99.2, a month - on - month decrease of 4.70%, and the national elimination - hen age was 512 days [44]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of August 22, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2373.53 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 3000 yuan per ton [48]. - **Feed Price and Breeding Profit**: As of August 15, 2025, the breeding profit of laying hens was - 0.26 yuan per hen, and the average price of laying - hen compound feed was 2.76 yuan per kilogram [55]. - **Laying - Hen Chick and Elimination - Hen Prices**: As of August 15, 2025, the average price of laying - hen chicks in the main production areas was 3.6 yuan per chick, and the average price of elimination hens was 10.94 yuan per kilogram [60]. - **Egg Monthly Export Volume**: In May 2025, the total egg export volume was 12,711.37 tons, an increase of 927.30 tons compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 7.87%, and a month - on - month decrease of 81.14 tons compared to the previous month [65].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Carbonate Lithium Market Weekly Report: Supply Slightly Increases, Demand Improves, Lithium Prices May Find Support" [2] - Date: August 22, 2025 - Researcher: Chen Sijia - Core Viewpoint: The fundamentals of carbonate lithium remain largely unchanged, with both supply and demand increasing. Although inventory is still high, it is being depleted. The report suggests a light - position, short - term long strategy when prices are low, while controlling risks [5] Group 2: Market Performance Futures Market - The closing price of the carbonate lithium main contract was 78,960 yuan/ton as of August 22, 2025, a weekly decrease of 7,940 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of - 9.14% and an amplitude of 13.81%. The near - far month spread was 220 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 120 yuan/ton [5][11] Spot Market - As of August 22, 2025, the average price of battery - grade carbonate lithium was 83,900 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1,200 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 4,940 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 9,140 yuan/ton [17] Group 3: Upstream Market Lithium Concentrate - As of August 22, 2025, the average price of spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 970 US dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 86 US dollars/ton. The spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.1778, a weekly increase of 0.07% [21] Lithium Mica - As of August 22, 2025, the average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 2,645 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 50 yuan/ton. The average price of lithiophilite was 7,825 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 615 yuan/ton [26] Group 4: Industry Supply and Demand Supply - As of July 2025, the monthly import volume of carbonate lithium was 13,845.31 tons, a decrease of 3,852.31 tons from June, a decline of 21.77% and a year - on - year decline of 42.67%. The monthly export volume was 366.347 tons, a decrease of 63.31 tons from June, a decline of 14.74% and a year - on - year increase of 37.2%. The monthly output was 44,600 tons, an increase of 500 tons from June, an increase of 1.13% and a year - on - year increase of 14.36%. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a monthly decline of 5% and a year - on - year decline of 32% [31] Demand - **Electrolyte and Related Materials**: As of July 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 179,450 tons, an increase of 6,800 tons from June, an increase of 3.94% and a year - on - year increase of 44.16%. The average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 55,750 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 8,000 yuan/ton [34] - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: As of July 2025, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 213,960 tons, an increase of 10,660 tons from June, an increase of 5.24% and a year - on - year increase of 26.6%. The operating rate was 51%, a monthly decrease of 1% and a year - on - year decrease of 5%. The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 34,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [39] - **Ternary Materials**: As of July 2025, the monthly output of ternary materials was 61,920 tons, an increase of 2,920 tons from June, an increase of 4.95% and a year - on - year increase of 24.09%. The operating rate was 52%, a monthly increase of 1% and a year - on - year decrease of 1%. The prices of mainstream ternary materials continued to strengthen [42] - **Lithium Manganate**: As of July 2025, the monthly output of lithium manganate was 10,120 tons, a decrease of 680 tons from June, a decline of 6.3% and a year - on - year increase of 11.21%. The average price of lithium manganate was 34,000 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 2,000 yuan/ton [47] - **Lithium Cobaltate**: As of July 2025, the monthly output of lithium cobaltate was 12,870 tons, an increase of 470 tons from June, an increase of 3.79% and a year - on - year increase of 71.14%. The average price of lithium cobaltate was 235,000 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 5,000 yuan/ton [50] Application End - New Energy Vehicles - As of July 2025, the monthly production of new - energy vehicles was 1,243,000 units, a monthly decrease of 1.97%; the monthly sales were 1,262,000 units, a monthly decrease of 5.04%. The penetration rate was 44.99%, a monthly increase of 0.68% and a year - on - year increase of 8.61%. The cumulative export volume was 1.308 million units, a year - on - year increase of 84.75% [52][57] Group 5: Option Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying asset is 0.13, presenting a positive arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of at - the - money option contracts and fundamental conditions, it is recommended to build a long straddle option to bet on increased volatility [60]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After profit improvement, production has rebounded rapidly in recent weeks, and inventory has also increased. The price of Ningxia semi - coke has risen at the cost end, and the overall demand for steel is still weak. The weekly K - line of the ferrosilicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend. The exchange has restricted positions twice in the past month, causing market sentiment to decline and the sector to weaken. The main contract of ferrosilicon is expected to fluctuate [6]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Macro - aspect**: DCE restricted the daily opening volume of coking coal futures JM2601 contract since August 15, 2025, leading to a decline in market sentiment. China's August LPR remained unchanged. Overseas, Putin put forward requirements for Ukraine, and the Fed's July meeting minutes released hawkish signals [6]. - **Supply - and - demand**: After profit improvement, production and inventory have increased in recent weeks. The price of Ningxia semi - coke has risen, and the demand for steel is still weak. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 235 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 60 yuan/ton [6]. - **Technical**: The weekly K - line of the ferrosilicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Strategy**: Since the exchange has restricted positions twice in a month, market sentiment has declined, and the sector has weakened. The main contract of ferrosilicon should be treated as a fluctuating operation [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures market**: As of August 22, the position of ferrosilicon futures contracts increased by 9,158 lots to 443,000 lots, and the monthly spread increased by 12 points. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 442 to 20,474, and the spot price in Ningxia decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 5,460 yuan/ton [8][12][16]. - **Spot market**: As of August 22, the basis increased by 150 points to - 262 yuan/ton [21]. 3. Industry Chain Situation - **Production**: As of August 21, the national operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 36.52%, up 0.34% week - on - week. The daily average output was 16,205 tons, up 0.50% (80 tons) week - on - week. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel products decreased by 0.19% week - on - week, and the national ferrosilicon output was 113,400 tons. Production has rebounded rapidly for six consecutive weeks [27]. - **Inventory**: As of August 21, the national inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 62,080 tons, down 4.76% (3,100 tons) week - on - week [30]. - **Upstream**: As of August 18, the electricity prices in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged. As of August 21, the average price of Ningxia semi - coke increased by 20 yuan/ton to 656 yuan/ton. As of August 22, the spot production cost in Ningxia increased by 40 yuan/ton to 5,390 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia increased by 35 yuan/ton to 5,535 yuan/ton. The spot production profit in Ningxia decreased by 205 yuan/ton to - 60 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia decreased by 185 yuan/ton to - 235 yuan/ton [36][42]. - **Downstream**: The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.09 million tons week - on - week to 2.4075 million tons, and increased by 16.29 million tons year - on - year. From January to July 2025, the total export volume of ferrosilicon was 236,000 tons, a decrease of 4.91% compared with the same period last year. The ferrosilicon tender price in August was 5,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared with July [44][46].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The silicon manganese market is expected to oscillate. The macro - environment has led to a decline in market sentiment, and the sector is weak in the short term. The fundamentals show a mixed picture with production rising, inventory decreasing, and cost and profit factors varying. Technically, the weekly K - line of the manganese silicon main contract is bearish [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Macro Aspect**: In China, the flood - control situation remains severe, and the steel industry has achieved good results due to reduced crude steel production. Overseas, geopolitical tensions exist between Russia and Ukraine, and the Fed's July meeting minutes show an inflation - focused and hawkish stance [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Production has been rising since mid - May, inventory has declined for 5 consecutive weeks to a neutral level, raw material port inventory has decreased by 2300 tons, and downstream iron - water production is at a high level. The 8 - month steel mill procurement tender price has increased by 150 yuan/ton compared to the previous month [6]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the manganese silicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [6]. - **Strategy**: Given the exchange's second position limit in a month, the market sentiment has declined, and the silicon manganese should be treated as oscillating [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of August 22, the silicon manganese futures contract open interest was 589,000 lots, a decrease of 2368 lots; the 1 - 9 contract spread was 90, an increase of 2 points. The manganese silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 4703 to 70,094, and the spread between the manganese silicon and ferrosilicon main contracts increased by 24 points [12][16]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 22, the Inner Mongolia silicon manganese spot price was 5750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 82 yuan/ton, an increase of 44 points [23]. 3.3 Industry Chain - **Production**: The production of silicon manganese has been rising since mid - May. The national capacity utilization rate is 46.37%, an increase of 0.62%, and the daily average output is 30,170 tons, an increase of 590 tons. The weekly demand of the five major steel grades for silicon manganese is 125,285 tons, a decrease of 0.08%, and the weekly supply is 211,190 tons, an increase of 1.99% [26]. - **Inventory**: The inventory has decreased for 7 consecutive weeks to a neutral level. The national inventory of 63 independent silicon manganese enterprises is 156,000 tons, a decrease of 2800 tons [31]. - **Upstream**: The electricity cost and manganese ore price have remained flat. The manganese ore port inventory has decreased by 23,000 tons. The northern region's spot production profit is - 170 yuan/ton, and the southern region's is - 520 yuan/ton [33][39][47]. - **Downstream**: The iron - water production is at a high level, with a daily average of 240,750 tons. The August silicon manganese steel procurement tender price has increased by 150 yuan/ton [51].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - A-share major indices rose significantly this week, with the ChiNext Index up over 5% and the STAR 50 up over 10%. The four stock index futures also increased collectively, and the performance of large and small-cap stocks was relatively balanced. The market trading activity continued to rise compared to last week, with the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets remaining at the two-trillion level, and the trading amount of northbound funds exceeding one trillion for five consecutive weeks [5][97]. - Domestically, in terms of economic fundamentals, the growth rates of industrial added value, fixed asset investment, and social retail sales of above-scale industries in July all declined compared to the previous values, and the real estate market also showed an accelerated decline. Previously announced inflation data improved month-on-month under the combined effect of seasonal effects and industrial policies. In terms of financial data, the M2 - M1 gap continued to narrow in July, indicating that residents are gradually shifting from excess savings to consumption. At the individual stock level, the net profit growth rate of all A-shares has increased compared to the first quarter, and the profit performance of the four stock index futures has been differentiated. In terms of the capital side, northbound funds remained active in trading, and the margin trading balance continued to climb [97]. - Overall, this week was a macro data vacuum period in China, and the market focused on the disclosure of the semi-annual reports of listed companies. In the current low-interest rate environment, the movement of residents' deposits has injected liquidity into the market, and the previous policies for the entry of medium and long-term funds have also promoted the optimization of the A-share investment structure. In addition, due to the relatively high valuation of the US stock market, A-shares with more reasonable valuations have continuously attracted foreign capital inflows. Finally, due to the poor performance of previous economic data, the market still expects policy intensification. The strategy is to recommend light - position buying on dips [97]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review | Futures/Spot | Contract/Index Name | Weekly Change (%) | Friday Change (%) | Closing Price | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Futures | IF2509 | 4.39 | 2.72 | 4394.0 | | | IH2509 | 3.36 | 2.80 | 2942.0 | | | IC2509 | 4.28 | 2.50 | 6810.4 | | | IM2509 | 3.70 | 2.25 | 7348.6 | | Spot | CSI 300 | 4.18 | 2.10 | 4378.00 | | | SSE 50 | 3.38 | 2.32 | 2928.61 | | | CSI 500 | 3.87 | 1.77 | 6822.85 | | | CSI 1000 | 3.45 | 1.51 | 7362.94 | [8] 3.2 News Overview - Premier Li Qiang emphasized enhancing the effectiveness of macro - policies, stimulating consumption potential, expanding effective investment, and stabilizing the real estate market, which is positive for the market [11]. - As of August 18, the margin trading balance exceeded 2.1 trillion yuan, with a six - consecutive - day increase and a cumulative increase of over 110 billion yuan since August, which is positive for the market [11]. - On August 20, 2025, the 1 - year LPR was 3.0% and the 5 - year LPR was 3.5%, remaining unchanged from the previous values, which is neutral for the market [11]. 3.3 Weekly Market Data - **Domestic Major Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.49% this week, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 4.57%, the STAR 50 rose 13.31%, the SME 100 rose 4.64%, and the ChiNext Index rose 5.85% [14]. - **External Major Indices (as of Thursday)**: The S&P 500 fell 1.23%, the UK FTSE 100 rose 1.86%, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.27%, and the Nikkei 225 fell 1.72% [15]. - **Industry Sector Performance**: All industry sectors rose, with the communication, electronics, and comprehensive sectors rising significantly. However, the main funds in the industry were generally in net outflows, with large net outflows in the computer, machinery, and power equipment sectors [19][23]. - **Other Data**: SHIBOR short - term interest rates first rose and then fell, with low capital prices. This week, major shareholders had a net reduction of 7.523 billion yuan in the secondary market, the market value of restricted shares lifted was 92.504 billion yuan, and the total trading amount of northbound funds was 1.345191 trillion yuan. The basis of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM strengthened [27][30][38]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - The market is expected to continue to be affected by factors such as the disclosure of semi - annual reports, economic fundamentals, and policy expectations. The strategy is to recommend light - position buying on dips [97].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply side in August shows an increase in the slaughter plan of the breeding end compared to the previous month, resulting in a relatively loose market supply. However, as prices fall, some farms may be inclined to hold out for higher prices, and the entry of second - round fattening has increased, which will slow down the slaughter rhythm. Additionally, the current price difference between fat and standard pigs has widened, providing conditions for later pressure on stocks [6]. - On the demand side, the state will conduct central pork reserve purchases in the near future, boosting market confidence. With sufficient pig supply and improved demand in some areas, the slaughterhouse operating rate has moderately rebounded. It is expected that demand will improve with the start of school and subsequent double - festival stocking [6]. - Overall, although the slaughter pressure in August restrains the performance of spot prices, the state's reserve purchases boost market confidence, and the upcoming start of school brings expectations of improved demand. It is expected that the short - term hog futures price will fluctuate slightly stronger within a range. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly, set stop - losses, and take profits opportunistically [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The hog price declined, with the main contract 2511 falling 0.75% on a weekly basis [6][10]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply is relatively loose in August, but factors such as farms' price - holding intentions, increased second - round fattening, and a widened fat - standard price difference will affect the supply rhythm. Demand is expected to improve due to state reserve purchases, the start of school, and double - festival stocking. Short - term futures prices are expected to fluctuate slightly stronger within a range [6]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: The futures price declined this week, with the main contract 2511 down 0.75% week - on - week. As of August 22, the net short position of the top 20 holders decreased by 1654 lots compared to last week, and the number of futures warrants was 430, unchanged from last week [10][16]. - **Spot Market**: - The basis of the September contract was - 160 yuan/ton, and that of the November contract was - 240 yuan/ton this week [20]. - The national average hog price was 13.82 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan/kg from last week but down 2.88% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 28.72 yuan/kg, down 2.35 yuan from last week and 15.18% from the same period last month [27]. - The national average pork price was 25.16 yuan/kg in the week of August 7, down 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows was 32.52 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous week [31]. - As of August 13, the hog - grain ratio was 5.94, down 0.08 from the previous week, remaining below 6:1 [36]. 3.3. Industry Situation - **Upstream**: - In June 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40430000 heads, a month - on - month increase of 10000 heads and a year - on - year increase of 0.12%, reaching 103.7% of the normal inventory. According to Mysteel data, in July, the inventory of breeding sows in 123 large - scale farms increased slightly by 0.01% month - on - month and 3.03% year - on - year, while that in 85 small and medium - sized farms decreased slightly by 0.17% month - on - month but increased 6.67% year - on - year [41]. - In the second quarter, the hog inventory increased year - on - year, and in July, it increased month - on - month according to institutional data. In July, the inventory of commercial hogs in 123 large - scale farms increased by 1.11% month - on - month and 5.28% year - on - year, and that in 85 small and medium - sized farms increased by 2.49% month - on - month and 7.23% year - on - year [44]. - In July, the slaughter volume decreased month - on - month, and the average slaughter weight increased. The slaughter volume of commercial hogs in 123 large - scale farms was 10436200 heads, a month - on - month decrease of 3.08% but a year - on - year increase of 18.60%. The slaughter volume of 85 small and medium - sized farms was 480600 heads, a month - on - month decrease of 1.46% but a year - on - year increase of 57.67%. The average slaughter weight of national outer - ternary hogs this week was 123.38 kg, an increase of 0.15 kg from last week [49]. - **Industry Profit**: - As of August 22, the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding reported a loss of 151.8 yuan/head, with the loss decreasing by 5.25 yuan/head. The profit of self - breeding and self - raising hogs was 33.95 yuan/head, a month - on - month increase of 5.1 yuan/head. The profit of laying hens was - 0.15 yuan/head, with the weekly loss decreasing by 0.11 yuan/head, and the profit of 817 meat - hybrid chickens was 1.01 yuan/head [54]. - **Domestic Situation**: In July, China's pork imports were 90000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%. From January to July, the cumulative pork imports were 630000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% [59]. - **Substitute Situation**: As of the week of August 22, the price of white - striped chickens was 14.4 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.3 yuan/kg from last week. As of the week of August 21, the average price difference between standard and fat hogs was - 0.48 yuan/kg, the same as last week [64]. - **Feed Situation**: - As of August 22, the spot price of soybean meal was 3084.29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.57 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the price of corn was 2373.53 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.59 yuan/ton from the previous week [69]. - As of August 22, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange hog feed cost index was 906.49, a decrease of 2.19% from last week, and the price of finishing hog compound feed was 3.34 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week [72]. - As of July 2025, the monthly feed production was 2827.3 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 110.4 tons [77]. - **CPI**: As of July 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.0% year - on - year [81]. - **Downstream**: - In the 34th week, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was 28.71%, an increase of 0.92 percentage points from last week, and the domestic frozen product storage rate was 17.56%, a slight increase of 0.04 percentage points from last week [84]. - As of June 2025, the slaughter volume of designated hog slaughtering enterprises was 30060000 heads, a month - on - month decrease of 6.53%. In July 2025, the national catering revenue was 450400000000 yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.1% [89]. - **Hog - related Stocks**: The report mentions the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific data analysis is provided [90].