Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On Tuesday, the futures price of the container shipping index (European line) dropped significantly. The main contract EC2602 closed down 7.78%, and the far - month contracts closed down between 1 - 2%. The poor implementation of the freight rate increase plan led to a sharp decline in the near - month futures prices. The recovery of terminal transport demand is not solid, and the spot freight rate expectations continue to fall. Geopolitical conflicts remain deadlocked, while the German economy boosts market confidence. The freight rate market is highly affected by news, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate more violently. Investors are advised to be cautious and pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, capacity, and cargo volume data in a timely manner [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Data - **Futures Prices**: The main contract EC2602 closed at 1126.400, down 14.6; the second - main contract closed at 1338, down 25.9. The EC2602 - EC2604 spread was 327.10, down 99.40; the EC2602 - EC2606 spread was 115.50, down 94.90. The EC contract basis was 185.87, up 115.10 [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The main contract's open interest was 17016 hands, an increase of 920 [2]. Spot Market Data - **Shipping Indexes**: The SCFIS (European line) (weekly) was 1639.37, up 281.70; the SCFIS (US West line) (weekly) was 1107.85, down 130.57. The SCFI (composite index) (weekly) was 1393.56, down 57.82; the container ship capacity was 1227.97 (in ten thousand TEUs), up 0.06. The CCFI (composite index) (weekly) was 1122.79, up 28.76; the CCFI (European line) (weekly) was 1432.96, up 29.32 [2]. - **Freight Indexes**: The Baltic Dry Index (daily) was 2275.00, up 20.00; the Panamax Freight Index (daily) was 1928.00, up 16.00. The average charter price of Panamax ships was 17564.00, unchanged; the average charter price of Capesize ships was 29150.00, down 1165.00 [2]. Industry News - **Sino - US Relations**: On the evening of November 24, Chinese President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump. Sino - US relations have been generally stable and positive since the Busan meeting [2]. - **Ukraine - Russia Conflict**: The US and Ukraine completed a new 19 - point peace agreement draft, but sensitive issues remain to be decided. European countries warned that an agreement cannot be quickly reached in the short term, and Russia said the European peace plan is not constructive [2]. - **Sino - Japan - Korea Relations**: China's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning responded to the media report that China rejected Japan's proposal for a Sino - Japan - Korea leaders' meeting in January next year, stating that the three parties have not reached a consensus on the meeting date, and Japan's wrong remarks on the Taiwan issue have damaged the cooperation atmosphere [2]. Key Data to Watch - November 26, 21:30: US initial jobless claims for the week ending November 22 (in ten thousand people); US durable goods orders monthly rate for September [2]. - November 26, 22:45: US Chicago PMI for November [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The economic growth rate in October continued the slowdown trend in the third quarter, with some economic indicators significantly affected by the external environment. The inflation level rebounded slightly, but its sustainability remains to be observed. It is expected that the economy will continue a weak recovery in the fourth quarter, supporting the bond market. - The central bank will maintain a moderately loose policy tone, with structural tools being the main means of policy implementation in the next stage. The scope for further monetary easing this year is limited. - The bond market currently maintains a volatile pattern with a ceiling and a floor, awaiting directional guidance from uncertain factors such as new fund regulations and the central bank's treasury bond trading volume. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Futures Closing Prices and Volume**: T主力收盘价108.220，较前一日下跌0.08%，成交量减少17030；TF主力收盘价105.980，持平，成交量减少9985；TS主力收盘价102.422，上涨0.01%，成交量减少12243；TL主力收盘价115.160，下跌0.33%，成交量减少19784。[2] - **Futures Spreads**: Multiple spreads showed changes, such as the TL2512 - 2603 spread decreasing by 0.02 to 0.16, and the T12 - TL12 spread increasing by 0.30 to -6.96. [2] - **Futures Positions**: Most of the major contract positions decreased, while the net short positions of some contracts changed. For example, the T主力持仓量 decreased by 28531 to 40332. [2] 3.2 CTD and Bond Yields - **CTD Net Prices**: The net prices of most CTD bonds decreased, except for 250017.IB and 220022.IB which increased slightly. [2] - **Bond Yields**: The yields of 1 - 5 and 10 - year active bonds mostly increased, while the 7 - year bond yield decreased by 0.40bp. [2] 3.3 Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The silver - pledged overnight rate increased by 0.09bp to 1.3009%, while the Shibor 7 - day rate decreased by 1.40bp to 1.4330%. [2] - **LPR Rates**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged. [2] 3.4 Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 1 - trillion - yuan MLF operation on November 25. With 900 billion yuan of MLF maturing in November, the net MLF injection was 100 billion yuan, marking the ninth consecutive month of increased roll - overs. [2] 3.5 Industry News - An official press conference on consumer - related policies will be held on November 27. - China's full - industry outward direct investment in the first three quarters of this year was 923.68 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. - The central bank carried out a 1 - trillion - yuan MLF operation on November 25, showing a moderately loose monetary policy orientation. [2] 3.6 Market Performance and Economic Situation - On Tuesday, most of the yields of treasury bond cash bonds weakened, and the treasury bond futures showed a pattern of short - term strength and medium - to - long - term weakness. - Domestically, economic indicators in October showed a slowdown, with weak loan demand, a decline in export growth, and a slowdown in deposit activation. - Overseas, the US labor data showed contradictions, and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in December is rising. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 25, the manganese - silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5636, down 0.18%. The inventory is rising rapidly, production is slightly falling from a high level, and inventory has been rising for 8 consecutive weeks. The import manganese ore port inventory at the raw material end increased by 33,000 tons. The iron - water demand is seasonally falling. The short - term direction is to be treated as a weak and oscillating operation [2]. - On November 25, the ferrosilicon 2603 contract was reported at 5448, down 0.58%. Market transactions are mainly for terminal rigid - demand restocking, prices are falling, and this period's inventory has decreased. The short - term direction is to be treated as a weak and oscillating operation [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the SM main contract was 5,636 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the closing price of the SF main contract was 5,448 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [2]. - The SM futures contract positions were 716,427 lots, down 2,060 lots; the SF futures contract positions were 446,630 lots, up 10,344 lots [2]. - The net positions of the top 20 in manganese - silicon were - 5,517 lots, up 2,709 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in ferrosilicon were - 17,283 lots, down 1,700 lots [2]. - The SM 5 - 1 month contract spread was 62 yuan/ton, unchanged; the SF 5 - 1 month contract spread was - 16 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. - The SM warehouse receipts were 21,189, up 392; the SF warehouse receipts were 10,841, up 1,802 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,450 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the price of Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,500 yuan/ton; the price of Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5,270 yuan/ton; the price of Qinghai ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5,130 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Ningxia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5,220 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. - The weekly average of the manganese - silicon index was 5,515.75 yuan/ton, down 63.25 yuan; the SF main contract basis was - 228 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan; the SM main contract basis was - 186 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of South African ore: Mn38 block at Tianjin Port was 32 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; the price of silica (98% in the Northwest) was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke was 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of semi - coke (medium material in Shenmu) was 880 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The weekly manganese ore port inventory was 426.30 tons, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly manganese - silicon enterprise start - up rate was 39.13%, down 0.46%; the weekly ferrosilicon enterprise start - up rate was 33.81%, down 1.03% [2]. - The weekly manganese - silicon supply was 196,910 tons, down 2,660 tons; the weekly ferrosilicon supply was 108,300 tons, down 800 tons [2]. - The semi - monthly manganese - silicon manufacturer inventory was 363,000 tons, up 13,500 tons; the semi - monthly ferrosilicon manufacturer inventory was 73,050 tons, down 8,310 tons [2]. - The monthly manganese - silicon inventory days of national steel mills was 15.70 days, down 0.23 days; the monthly ferrosilicon inventory days of national steel mills was 15.67 days, up 0.15 days [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly demand for manganese - silicon from five major steel types was 121,407 tons, up 2,818 tons; the weekly demand for ferrosilicon from five major steel types was 19,543 tons, up 469.20 tons [2]. - The weekly blast furnace start - up rate of 247 steel mills was 82.17%, down 0.62%; the weekly blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 88.56%, down 0.26% [2]. - The monthly crude steel output was 7,199.70 tons, down 149.31 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - UBS expects copper prices to rise next year due to supply shortages caused by continuous disruptions in mine production and strong long - term demand from electrification and clean - energy investments, with a target price of $13,000 in December 2026 [2]. - Hebei's "15th Five - Year Plan" proposes to optimize and upgrade traditional industries, promote the transformation and upgrading of key industries, and improve the competitiveness of Hebei's steel in the global industrial division of labor [2]. 3.7 Profit and Market Pricing - For manganese - silicon, the Inner Mongolia spot profit was - 260 yuan/ton, and the Ningxia spot profit was - 400 yuan/ton. The final November silicon - manganese pricing of HBIS Group was 5,820 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month [2]. - For ferrosilicon, the Inner Mongolia spot profit was - 240 yuan/ton, and the Ningxia spot profit was - 470 yuan/ton. The November HBIS 75B ferrosilicon tender pricing was 5,680 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous round [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - In October, multiple domestic economic indicators weakened, indicating significant downward pressure on the economy, which suppresses the stock market. The continuous unchanged LPR for six months reflects a prudent monetary policy, with a low possibility of significant reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. Although the phone call between the Chinese and US presidents on the 24th boosted short - term market risk appetite, in the current environment of multiple vacuums in macro data, performance, and policies, it cannot provide continuous upward momentum, and the stock index will maintain a volatile trend [2]. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Contract Prices**: IF, IH, IC, and IM main and secondary main contracts all increased. For example, the IF main contract (2512) rose to 4473.0, up 29.4; the IH main contract (2512) rose to 2959.2, up 10.4; the IC main contract (2512) rose to 6900.0, up 58.0; the IM main contract (2512) rose to 7172.0, up 60.4 [2]. - **Price Spreads**: Various price spreads such as IF - IH, IC - IF, etc. changed. For instance, the IF - IH current - month contract spread increased to 1513.8, up 23.0; the IC - IF current - month contract spread increased to 2427.0, up 34.6 [2]. - **Seasonal - to - Current Month Differences**: Some seasonal - to - current month differences changed. For example, IF when - season - to - current increased to - 29.0, up 0.2; IH when - season - to - current decreased to - 5.2, down 2.2 [2]. - **Net Positions of Top 20**: The net positions of the top 20 in different contracts changed. For example, the IF top 20 net position increased to - 24,028.00, up 329.0; the IH top 20 net position decreased to - 10,694.00, down 174.0 [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of main contracts decreased. For example, the IF main contract basis decreased to - 17.4, down 4.6; the IH main contract basis decreased to - 9.0, down 2.8 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market Data - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.87%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.53%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.77%. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market turnover increased slightly, and nearly 4300 stocks rose. The communication and media sectors strengthened significantly, while the national defense and military industry and transportation sectors declined [2]. - **Economic Indicators**: In October, domestic imports and exports, fixed - asset investment, social retail sales, and industrial added value of large - scale industries all declined significantly compared to the previous values. The fixed - asset investment declined for 7 consecutive months, and social retail sales declined for 5 consecutive months. The real estate market continued to decline. In terms of financial data, the decline of M1 growth rate was greater than that of M2, and the M1 - M2 scissors - difference ended the 5 - month upward trend. The 11 - month LPR remained unchanged for the 6th consecutive month [2]. 3.3 Industry News - On the evening of November 24, Chinese President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump. Trump said he would visit China in April next year, which boosted short - term market risk appetite [2]. 3.4 Key Events to Watch - November 25, 21:30: US September PPI, core PPI, retail sales - November 26, 21:30: US initial jobless claims for the week ending November 22 - November 26, 23:00: US October PCE, core PCE - November 27, 9:30: China's October industrial enterprise profits above designated size - November 30, 9:30: China's November manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMI [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 25, the JM2601 contract closed at 1086.0, down 1.00%. On the spot side, the price of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was reported at 1550, equivalent to 1330 on the futures market. The macro - aspect shows that the NDRC issued a notice on ensuring thermal coal supply in 2026, weakening the market expectation. Fundamentally, the mine capacity utilization rate has rebounded for two consecutive weeks, and the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants has increased for three consecutive weeks. The overall inventory has a seasonal upward trend. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile [2]. - On November 25, the J2601 contract closed at 1643.0, up 0.98%. On the spot side, the fourth round of price increase for coke has been implemented. The macro - aspect indicates that Fed Governor Waller said the US employment market is still weak, which may lead to a 25 - basis - point rate cut in the December 9 - 10 meeting. Fundamentally, the current iron - water output is 236.28 (-0.60) million tons, and the total coke inventory is higher than the same period. In terms of profit, the average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 19 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价 was 1086.00 yuan/ton, down 10.50 yuan; J主力合约收盘价 was 1643.00 yuan/ton, up 10.50 yuan [2]. - JM期货合约持仓量 was 882468.00 hands, up 23065.00 hands; J期货合约持仓量 was 48757.00 hands, down 420.00 hands [2]. - The net position of the top 20 JM contracts was - 121783.00 hands, down 17327.00 hands; the net position of the top 20 J contracts was - 865.00 hands, up 255.00 hands [2]. - The JM5 - 1 month contract spread was 98.00 yuan/ton, up 15.00 yuan; the J5 - 1 month contract spread was 145.50 yuan/ton, down 4.00 yuan [2]. - The number of JM warehouse receipts was 0.00; the number of J warehouse receipts was 2070.00 [2]. Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was 1010.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan; the price of Tangshan Grade I metallurgical coke was 1885.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 162.50 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - Grade I metallurgical coke was 1670.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of imported prime coking coal from Australia at Jingtang Port was 1560.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan; the price of Grade I metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1770.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of prime coking coal produced in Shanxi at Jingtang Port was 1780.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - Grade I metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1670.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1380.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The JM主力合约基差 was 524.00 yuan/ton, up 10.50 yuan; the J主力合约基差 was 242.00 yuan/ton, down 10.50 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 27.60 million tons, up 0.20 million tons; the weekly inventory of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 302.80 million tons, up 2.00 million tons [2]. - The weekly capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.38%, unchanged; the monthly raw coal output was 40675.00 million tons, down 475.50 million tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of coal and lignite was 4174.00 million tons, down 426.00 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 193.40 million tons, up 1.50 million tons [2]. - The weekly inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 456.90 million tons, down 31.30 million tons; the weekly inventory of coking coal in the full - sample of independent coking enterprises was 1038.19 million tons, down 30.78 million tons [2]. - The weekly inventory of coking coal in 247 steel mills nationwide was 797.08 million tons, up 6.91 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke in 247 sample steel mills was 622.34 million tons, down 0.06 million tons [2]. - The weekly available days of coking coal in the full - sample of independent coking enterprises was 12.97 days, up 0.10 days; the weekly available days of coke in 247 sample steel mills was 11.05 days, down 0.01 days [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of coking coal was 1059.32 million tons, down 33.04 million tons; the monthly export volume of coke and semi - coke was 73.00 million tons, up 19.00 million tons [2]. - The monthly output of coking coal was 3975.92 million tons, up 279.06 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 71.71%, up 0.07% [2]. - The weekly profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants was 19.00 yuan/ton, up 53.00 yuan/ton [2]. - The monthly output of coke was 4189.60 million tons, down 66.00 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 82.17%, down 0.62%; the weekly blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 88.56%, down 0.26% [2]. - The monthly output of crude steel was 7199.70 million tons, down 149.31 million tons [2]. Industry News - On the evening of November 24, Chinese President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump. Xi pointed out that since the Busan meeting, Sino - US relations have generally been stable and improving [2]. - Fed Governor Waller said the existing data shows that the US employment market is still weak, which may lead to a 25 - basis - point rate cut in the December 9 - 10 meeting [2]. - UBS said in a report that it expects copper prices to rise next year due to supply shortages caused by continuous disruptions in mine production and strong long - term demand from electrification and clean - energy investment, with a target price of 13000 US dollars in December 2026 [2]. - The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal in Hebei Province aims to optimize and upgrade traditional industries, promote the transformation and upgrading of key industries, and improve the competitiveness of Hebei's steel in the global industrial division [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests an investment view of "oscillating upward", advising attention to risk control [2] 2. Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, the HC2601 contract rebounded with reduced positions. Macroeconomic factors were positive, and the supply - demand situation showed that the weekly output of hot - rolled coils increased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate rose to 80.73%. Downstream demand recovered, and inventory changed from increasing to decreasing. The relatively strong performance of major furnace materials supported the increase in futures prices. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were moving upward [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,309 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; the position of the HC main contract was 999,741 lots, down 82,348 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was - 73,660 lots, down 16,779 lots. The HC1 - 5 contract spread was 10 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 203 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan. The HC main contract basis was 31 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [2] Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,340 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Guangzhou was 3,320 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Wuhan was 3,330 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin was 3,240 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The price difference between Hangzhou hot - rolled coils and rebar was 50 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 798 yuan/wet ton, up 5 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,690 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,160 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet was 2,980 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 15,050.88 million tons, down 75.04 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 43.33 million tons, up 7.30 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 622.40 million tons, up 0.25 million tons; the inventory of Hebei billets was 116.1 million tons, down 0.56 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 82.17%, down 0.62%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 88.56%, down 0.26%. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 316.01 million tons, up 2.35 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 80.73%, up 0.60%. The factory inventory of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 78.02 million tons, up 0.50 million tons; the social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities was 324.09 million tons, down 8.91 million tons. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 7,200 million tons, down 149 million tons; the monthly net export volume of steel was 928.00 million tons, down 64.00 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles was 3.3587 million vehicles, up 0.0829 million vehicles; the monthly sales of automobiles was 3.3221 million vehicles, up 0.0957 million vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners was 14.204 million units, down 3.8908 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators was 8.788 million units, down 1.3396 million units; the monthly output of household washing machines was 11.035 million units, down 0.7499 million units [2] Industry News - Shandong will focus on promoting the construction of projects such as the second - phase of the Shandong Steel Rizhao Base, aiming to cultivate about 3 steel enterprises with an annual output of over 10 million tons in about 2 years. In October, the retail sales of narrow - sense passenger cars reached 2.25 million vehicles, with a year - on - year flat and a slight decrease of 0.5%, and a month - on - month flat and a slight increase of 0.3%. Among them, the retail sales of new - energy narrow - sense passenger cars for the whole month were 1.288 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7.3% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - It is expected that the stainless - steel futures price will rise and adjust, break through the MA10, and the upper target is 12,600 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,405 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 70 yuan; the 12 - 01 contract spread is - 155 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 9,124 lots, an increase of 2,425 lots; the position of the main contract is 147,237 lots [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity is 63,890 tons, a decrease of 492 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; the market price of scrap stainless - steel 304 in Wuxi is 8,850 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of the SS main contract is 510 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 22,900 metal tons, an increase of 1,200 metal tons [2] - The monthly import quantity of refined nickel and alloys is 9,939.65 tons, a decrease of 18,631.22 tons; the monthly import quantity of nickel - iron is 905,100 tons, a decrease of 180,200 tons [2] - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 118,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 800 yuan; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 885 yuan/nickel point, unchanged [2] - The monthly Chinese chromite output is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless - steel is 1.8 million tons, an increase of 37,300 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless - steel is 585,300 tons, a decrease of 5,900 tons [2] - The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing start - up area is 490.6139 million square meters, an increase of 36.6239 million square meters; the monthly output of excavators is 30,900 units, a decrease of 700 units [2] - The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 21,900 units, a decrease of 4,300 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 9,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2] 3.6 Industry News - Fed Governor Waller, a top candidate for Fed Chair, is mainly concerned about the labor market and advocates a December rate cut; San Francisco Fed President Daly, who usually follows Powell, also worries about a sudden deterioration in the labor market and supports a December rate cut [2] - Chinese President talked with US President Trump, stating that "cooperation benefits both, while confrontation hurts both", and emphasizing that Taiwan's return to China is an important part of the post - war international order. The two leaders also discussed the Ukraine crisis [2] - From January to October, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation increased by 43.8% year - on - year, maintaining a warming trend. In the raw material segment, the rainy season in the Philippines is approaching, and the nickel ore grade is declining, leading to tight raw material inventories of domestic nickel - iron plants. However, the nickel - iron output in Indonesia remains high, and the amount flowing back to China is expected to increase. Recently, the nickel - iron price has dropped significantly, and the raw material cost has decreased [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The stainless - steel mills' production profit has been repaired. With the end of the traditional consumption peak season and the expected demand from infrastructure and real estate, the stainless - steel mills' production schedule is expected to increase, leading to increased supply pressure [2] - The downstream demand shows the characteristic of a weak peak season, with low market purchasing willingness, average overall inquiry and transaction performance, and the national stainless - steel social inventory shows a narrow increase [2] - Technically, the position has decreased while the price has stabilized, the short - selling atmosphere has weakened, and there is support at the lower edge of the downward channel. It is expected that the stainless - steel futures price will rise and adjust, break through the MA10, and the upper target is 12,600 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The international sugar market is moving towards a situation of loose supply, lacking positive drivers, and the price of raw sugar remains low. In the domestic market, the new sugar - making season is fully underway. Some sugar mills' crushing progress is delayed due to rainfall. With the low international raw sugar price, processing enterprises have high sales profits. The import of sugar in October increased significantly, and the short - term sugar price shows no signs of stopping the decline, and is expected to continue its weak trend [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar is 5,387 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 17 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 406,329 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 11,410 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 7,693 sheets, unchanged from the previous period; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 63,779 lots. The total effective warehouse receipt forecast is 183 sheets, unchanged [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,097 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 24 yuan/ton; the estimated import processing price of Thai sugar within the quota is 5,192 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 32 yuan/ton. The estimated price of imported Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,255 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 31 yuan/ton. The spot price of white sugar in Kunming, Yunnan is 5,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price in Nanning, Guangxi is 5,480 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 30 yuan/ton; the spot price in Liuzhou, Guangxi is 5,595 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, with an increase of 60 thousand hectares. The planting area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 840.33 thousand hectares, with an increase of 5.24 thousand hectares. The cumulative national sugar production is 1,116.21 million tons, with an increase of 5.49 million tons. The cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Guangxi is 602.29 million tons, with an increase of 26.66 million tons. The cumulative production of cane sugar in Yunnan is 241.88 million tons, unchanged. The total sugar exports from Brazil are 420.5 million tons, with an increase of 95.92 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,277 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,228 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 182 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 58 yuan/ton; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 119 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 57 yuan/ton. The monthly sugar import volume is 75 million tons, with an increase of 20 million tons; the cumulative sugar import volume is 390 million tons, with an increase of 74 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of refined sugar is 88.3 million tons, with an increase of 34.39 million tons; the monthly production of soft drinks is 1,096.2 million tons, with a decrease of 495.5 million tons [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.8%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.31 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 8.8%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.31 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility is 7.18%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.14 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.01%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.04 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of October 7, 2025, the non - commercial net short position in raw sugar futures was 114,807 lots, an increase of 9,600 lots from the previous week. The long position was 177,486 lots, a decrease of 4,117 lots from the previous week, and the short position was 292,293 lots, an increase of 5,483 lots from the previous week. Brazil exported 2.564 million tons of sugar in the first three weeks of November, with an average daily export volume of 183,000 tons, a 3% increase compared to the average daily export volume of 178,400 tons in the whole of November last year. The most actively traded March raw sugar futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) rose 0.04 cents, or 0.3%, to settle at 14.82 cents a pound, continuing the volatile trend [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The Fed Chair candidate Waller and San Francisco Fed President Daly advocate a December rate cut due to concerns about the labor market. The Indonesian government's RKAB quota is relatively loose this year, but the approval cycle will be shortened to one year next year, increasing raw material supply uncertainty. The Philippine nickel ore supply is entering the rainy season with declining ore grades, and domestic nickel ore inventories are lower than the same period last year. Newly invested electrolytic nickel projects are being put into production slowly, and some smelters are reducing production due to low nickel prices and cost pressures, so the growth of refined nickel production is expected to be limited. On the demand side, stainless - steel mills are not in a strong peak season, but steel mill profits have improved due to falling nickel - iron costs, and production volume is expected to rise. New - energy vehicle production and sales continue to climb, contributing a small demand increase. Domestic nickel inventories continue to grow, and the spot premium has risen; overseas LME inventories are also increasing. It is expected that nickel prices will oscillate weakly. Technically, with falling positions and rising prices, the short - selling atmosphere has weakened. It is expected that Shanghai nickel will rebound and adjust in the short term, and attention should be paid to the MA10 resistance [3] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 116,160 yuan/ton, the 01 - 02 month contract spread is - 170 yuan/ton, the LME 3 - month nickel price is 14,730 US dollars/ton, the main contract position of Shanghai nickel is 141,215 lots (down 6,339 lots), the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 30,989 lots, the LME nickel inventory is 253,482 tons (down 468 tons), the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory is 39,795 tons, the LME nickel cancelled warrants are 10,308 tons (down 450 tons), and the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 33,650 tons [3] 现货市场 - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 118,550 yuan/ton, the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 118,650 yuan/ton (up 1,100 yuan/ton), the CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,500 yuan/ton, the basis of the NI main contract is 2,390 yuan/ton (up 170 yuan/ton), and the LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 190.47 US dollars/ton [3] Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 468.28 million tons (down 143.17 million tons), the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,499.76 million tons (down 9.73 million tons), the含税 price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 57.33 US dollars/wet ton, and the average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 41.71 US dollars/ton [3] Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, and the total monthly nickel - iron production is 2.29 million metal tons (up 0.12 million metal tons) [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 9,939.65 tons (down 18,631.22 tons), the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 180 million tons, the monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 90.51 million tons, and the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 58.53 million tons (down 0.59 million tons) [3] Industry News - The Fed Chair candidate Waller and San Francisco Fed President Daly advocate a December rate cut due to concerns about the labor market. The Chinese President had a phone call with the US President Trump, emphasizing that "cooperation benefits both sides and confrontation hurts both" and the importance of Taiwan's return to China in the post - war international order, and the two leaders also talked about the Ukraine crisis. From January to October, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation increased by 43.8% year - on - year, and the new photovoltaic installed capacity in October was 12.6GW, up 30.4% month - on - month [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The report predicts that Shanghai zinc will experience oscillatory adjustments, with attention focused on the range of 22,300 - 22,600 yuan/ton. The zinc market is influenced by multiple factors, including supply - side constraints and demand - side fluctuations. The market is expected to gradually shift towards net exports, and the overall trading atmosphere has shown signs of improvement [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 22,360 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the LME three - month zinc quote is 3,003 dollars/ton, up 11 dollars [3]. - The 01 - 02 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged; the total position of Shanghai zinc is 190,891 lots, down 2,396 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 7,620 lots, down 105 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt is 0 tons, unchanged [3]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 100,347 tons, down 545 tons; the LME inventory is 47,425 tons, up 100 tons [3]. b) Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,400 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,300 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan [3]. - The basis of the ZN main contract is 40 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is 140.2 dollars/ton, up 5.11 dollars [3]. - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 18,630 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,950 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. c) Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 21,000 tons, an increase of 6,800 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 47,900 tons, an increase of 17,700 tons [3]. - The global zinc ore production (monthly) is 1.0976 million tons, an increase of 21,400 tons; the domestic refined zinc production (monthly) is 625,000 tons, a decrease of 26,000 tons [3]. - The zinc ore import volume (monthly) is 340,900 tons, a decrease of 164,500 tons [3]. d) Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume (monthly) is 18,836.76 tons, a decrease of 3,840.75 tons; the refined zinc export volume (monthly) is 8,518.67 tons, an increase of 6,040.84 tons [3]. - The zinc social inventory (weekly) is 161,900 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons [3]. e) Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.28 million tons, a decrease of 90,000 tons [3]. - The monthly new housing construction area is 490.6139 million square meters, an increase of 36.6239 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 348.61 million square meters, an increase of 37.3212 million square meters [3]. - The monthly automobile production is 3.279 million vehicles, an increase of 52,000 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 14.204 million units, a decrease of 3.8908 million units [3]. f) Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 3.08%, down 8.63 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 1.29%, down 10.42 percentage points [3]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 11.21%, down 0.47 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 9.03%, down 0.18 percentage points [3]. g) Industry News - The potential candidate for the Fed Chairman, Fed Governor Waller, is mainly concerned about the labor market and advocates a rate cut in December; San Francisco Fed President Daly, who usually follows Powell, also supports a rate cut in December due to concerns about a sudden deterioration in the labor market [3]. - The Chinese President had a phone call with the US President, emphasizing that "cooperation benefits both sides, while confrontation hurts both" and the importance of Taiwan's return to China in the post - war international order. The two leaders also discussed the Ukraine crisis [3]. - From January to October, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation increased by 43.8% year - on - year, continuing the recovery trend. As of the end of October, the national solar power installed capacity was 1.14 billion kilowatts, a 43.8% year - on - year increase. The newly added photovoltaic installed capacity in October was 12.6GW, a 30.4% month - on - month increase [3]. h) Viewpoint Summary - On the supply side, zinc ore imports have increased as long - term agreement ores signed by smelters have arrived at ports, and smelters are stocking up for winter production. However, domestic zinc ore processing fees have decreased, sulfuric acid prices have fallen, smelter profits have shrunk significantly, and some smelters are in the red. Although new production capacities are being released, the growth of refined zinc production is limited. Overseas zinc supply is tight, the Shanghai - London ratio has dropped significantly, and the export window has opened, with a shift towards net exports expected [3]. - On the demand side, the traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" have been lackluster, with the real estate sector being a drag. Policy support in the automobile and home appliance sectors has brought some highlights. The downstream market mainly purchases on dips, the atmosphere has improved, the spot premium has rebounded, and domestic inventories have decreased slightly. LME zinc inventories have increased, but the spot premium remains high [3]. - Technically, the position has decreased and the price has adjusted. Both bulls and bears are trading cautiously. Attention should be paid to the support of the MA60 [3].