Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper main contract rebounded slightly, with increased positions, spot premium, and weakened basis. The copper concentrate spot TC index remains at a low negative level, and the raw material supply is still tight. The supply of refined copper may converge, and downstream demand is temporarily weak. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows the double - line above the 0 - axis with a slightly converging red column. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 86,600 yuan/ton, up 520 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 10,861 dollars/ton, up 88 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is 0 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the position of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 199,582 lots, up 7,190 lots. The top 20 positions in Shanghai copper futures are - 27,472 lots, down 5,300 lots. The LME copper inventory is 155,025 tons, down 2,900 tons; the SHFE cathode copper inventory is 110,603 tons, up 1,196 tons; the SHFE cathode copper warrant is 43,816 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 现货市场 - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 86,610 yuan/ton, up 375 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 86,595 yuan/ton, up 320 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 50.5 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium is 31.5 dollars/ton, down 3.5 dollars. The CU main contract basis is 10 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is 24.88 dollars/ton, up 23.82 dollars. The monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 245.15 million tons, down 13.56 million tons; the weekly TC of domestic copper smelters is - 42.32 dollars/kiloton, down 0.11 dollars/kiloton [2] Upstream Situation - The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi is 76,510 yuan/metal ton, up 330 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 77,210 yuan/metal ton, up 330 yuan. The weekly processing fee for crude copper in the south is 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the north, it is 900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly output of refined copper is 1.204 million tons, down 62,000 tons; the monthly import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons, down 50,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The weekly social inventory of copper is 418,200 tons, up 4,300 tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 58,990 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 72,800 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 870 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 下游及应用 - The monthly output of copper products is 2.004 million tons, down 228,000 tons. The cumulative monthly grid infrastructure investment is 482.4 billion yuan, up 44.593 billion yuan. The cumulative monthly real estate development investment is 7,356.27 billion yuan, up 585.699 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,177 million pieces, down 194,236.1 pieces [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 13.57%, down 0.86%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 19.42%, up 0.03%. The current month's at - the - money IV implied volatility is 12.14%, down 0.0053%; the at - the - money option purchase - to - put ratio is 1.18, down 0.0271 [2] Industry News - Fed Governor Waller advocates a rate cut in December due to the weak labor market; San Francisco Fed President Daly supports a rate cut next month. As of the end of October, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity is 3.75 billion kilowatts, with solar and wind power growing significantly. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology initiates the creation of national emerging industry development demonstration bases. In the first three quarters, China's full - industry outward direct investment increased by 4.4%. The central bank will conduct 1 trillion yuan of MLF operations on November 25, with a net investment of 100 billion yuan [2]

Report Overview - Report Date: 2025-11-25 - Report Type: Cotton (Yarn) Industry Daily Report - Researcher: Wang Cuibing - Researcher's Futures Qualification Number: F03139616 - Researcher's Futures Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0021556 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The domestic cotton market has a marginal improvement in demand with support at the lower end, but is suppressed by increased supply at the upper end. It is expected that the cotton price will fluctuate in the future [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 13645, up 60; cotton yarn main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 20065, down 10 [2]. - Cotton futures top 20 net positions (lots): -97326, down 7854; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions (lots): -949, down 445 [2]. - Main contract open interest: cotton (daily, lots): 552401, up 486; main contract open interest: cotton yarn (daily, lots): 18640, down 3060 [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantity: cotton (daily, sheets): 2319, up 79; warehouse receipt quantity: cotton yarn (daily, sheets): 14, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index: CCIndex: 3128B (daily, yuan/ton): 14832, up 39; China Yarn Price Index: Pure Cotton Carded Yarn 32S (daily, yuan/ton): 20660, up 70 [2]. - China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: 1% Tariff (daily, yuan/ton): 12792, up 8; China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: Sliding Duty (daily, yuan/ton): 13852, up 9 [2]. - Arrival price: Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index: Pure Cotton Carded Yarn 32S (daily, yuan/ton): 21052, down 32; Arrival price: Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index: Pure Cotton Combed Yarn 32S (daily, yuan/ton): 22312, down 34 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - National cotton sown area (annual, thousand hectares): 2838.3, up 48.3; National cotton output (annual, ten thousand tons): 616, up 54 [2]. - Cotton - yarn price difference (CY C32S - CC3128B, yuan/ton): 5828, up 31; Industrial inventory: Cotton: National (monthly, ten thousand tons): 78.5, down 7.6 [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton: Import quantity: Monthly value (monthly, ten thousand tons): 9, down 1; Cotton yarn: Import quantity: Monthly value (monthly, tons): 140000, up 10000 [2]. - Imported cotton profit (daily, yuan/ton): 941, up 413; Commercial inventory: Cotton: National (monthly, ten thousand tons): 293.06, up 190.89 [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Inventory days: Yarn (monthly, days): 26.12, up 1.27; Inventory days: Grey cloth (monthly, days): 31.97, up 0.85 [2]. - Cloth: Output: Monthly value (monthly, billion meters): 26.2, down 1.8; Yarn: Output: Monthly value (monthly, ten thousand tons): 200.1, down 7.3 [2]. - Clothing and clothing accessories: Export amount: Monthly value (monthly, ten thousand US dollars): 11003480.43, down 1449766.57; Textile yarns, fabrics and products: Export amount: Monthly value (monthly, ten thousand US dollars): 11258418.92, down 708097.08 [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Cotton at - the - money call option implied volatility (%): 14.99, up 9.83; Cotton at - the - money put option implied volatility (%): 14.99, up 9.83 [2]. - Cotton 20 - day historical volatility (%): 5.79, up 1.06; Cotton 60 - day historical volatility (%): 7.67, up 0.27 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of October 7, 2025, according to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission data, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton were 70902 lots, a decrease of 1689 lots from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 129324 lots, an increase of 6748 lots from the previous week; the net short positions were 58422 lots, an increase of 8437 lots from the previous week [2]. - As of the end of October, according to the China Cotton Association, the in - stock industrial inventory of cotton in textile enterprises was 88.82 ten thousand tons, an increase of 6.1 ten thousand tons year - on - year and an increase of 4.27 ten thousand tons month - on - month [2]. - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton futures rose slightly on Monday. Market participants were waiting for new economic data, and the increasing expectation of a possible interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve provided support. The ICE March cotton futures contract closed up 0.15 cents, or 0.23%, at 64.0 cents per pound [2].

| | | 沪锡产业日报 2025-11-25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 295290 | 2430 1月-2月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 30 | 450 | | | LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | 37425 | 455 主力合约持仓量:沪锡(日,手) | 44785 | 26438 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:沪锡(日,手) | -820 | -1372 LME锡:总库存(日,吨) | 3085 | 0 | | | 上期所库存:锡(周,吨) 上期所仓单:锡(日,吨) | 6229 | -29 LME锡:注销仓单(日,吨) | 240 | 0 | | | | 6093 | 209 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#锡现货价格(日,元/吨) | 295200 | 1700 长江有色市场1#锡现货价(日,元/吨) | 295770 | 1960 | | | 沪锡主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 64 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - **Overall**: The rapeseed - related market shows a complex situation with both supply - and demand - side factors influencing prices. The market is affected by international factors such as the performance of US soybeans, Canadian rapeseed policies, and the situation of palm oil, as well as domestic factors like Sino - Canadian trade negotiations and domestic demand [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Internationally, US soybeans are in the export season with sufficient supply and face competition from Brazil, but domestic consumption in the US is good and Chinese purchases support prices. Domestically, Sino - Canadian trade restricts imports, supply is tight, but demand is weak due to the decline in aquaculture demand and the substitution of soybean meal. The price is under pressure and shows a volatile trend [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed oil market has a tightening supply due to the failure of Sino - Canadian trade negotiations on tariffs and the shutdown of oil mills. It is in a de - stocking mode, which supports prices. However, the abundant supply of soybean oil and its substitution advantage limit the demand for rapeseed oil. The price is affected by the decline of palm oil but may be stronger than palm oil in the short - term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The futures closing price of rapeseed oil (active contract) is 9818 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the futures closing price of rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2431 yuan/ton; the futures closing price of ICE rapeseed (active) is 642.2 Canadian dollars/ton, down 12 Canadian dollars; the futures closing price of rapeseed (active contract) is 5442 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spreads**: The rapeseed oil monthly spread (1 - 5) is - 26 yuan/ton; the rapeseed meal monthly spread (1 - 5) is 330 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil is 7808 lots, and that of rapeseed meal is 9220 lots, down 13046 lots and 5347 lots respectively; the main contract positions of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal are - 21536 lots and 355847 lots respectively, with the latter down 4625 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is - 8, and that of rapeseed meal is 3968, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10190 yuan/ton; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2460 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the average price of rapeseed oil is 10283.75 yuan/ton; the import cost of rapeseed is 7878.8 yuan/ton, up 33.1% [2]. - **Ratios and Spreads**: The oil - meal ratio is 4.02, down 0.03; the basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is - 40 yuan/ton; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is 372 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1690 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1820 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 540 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production**: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 90.96 million tons, unchanged [2]. - **Imports**: The total rapeseed import volume for the month is - 11.53 tons; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil for the month is - 2 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal for the month is 22.06 tons, up 6.29 tons [2]. - **Inventory and Operation**: The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills is - 0.25 tons; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 0%, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is - 0.83 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0.01 tons, down 0.19 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region is - 3.6 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the East China region is 22.66 tons, down 0.3 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region is - 0.33 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region is 23 tons, up 0.7 tons [2]. - **Delivery Volume**: The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil is - 0.15 tons; the weekly delivery volume of rapeseed meal is 0.2 tons, down 0.1 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Consumption**: The total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry for the month is - 171.7 billion yuan; the monthly output of feed is 5199 tons, up 690.4 tons; the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is - 67.4 tons [2]. 3.6 Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 21.08%, up 1.02%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 21.08%, up 1.02%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 15.14%, up 0.21%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 15.14%, up 0.21% [2]. - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 0.03%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 20.82%, up 0.01%; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 0.06%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 13.62%, down 0.14% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On November 24th, ICE rapeseed futures rose slightly supported by the strengthening of crude oil. The January rapeseed futures contract rose 3.10 Canadian dollars to 644.20 Canadian dollars per ton, and the March contract rose 3.50 Canadian dollars to 657.20 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - US soybeans are in the export season with sufficient supply and face competition from Brazil, but domestic consumption in the US is good and Chinese purchases support prices. Sino - Canadian trade negotiations on rapeseed tariffs have not made a breakthrough, limiting imports [2]. - The Canadian government's bio - fuel production incentive plan uses rapeseed oil as the core raw material, and Canada and Pakistan have reached an agreement to promote rapeseed exports to Pakistan [2]. - The US government is considering delaying the plan to cut bio - fuel import incentives by 1 - 2 years, and the production of Malaysian palm oil increased while exports declined in November, increasing inventory pressure on the international oil market [2].

成交一般，短期郑枣期价预计低位运行为主。 研究员: 王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021556 | 数据指标 | | 项目类别 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货主力合约收盘价:红枣(日,元/吨) | | 9175 -50 主力合约持仓量:红枣(日,手) 117239 期货市场 | | -4404 | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:红枣(日,手) | | -7061 -3339 仓单数量:红枣(日,张) | 0 | 0 | | 有效仓单预报:红枣:小计(日,张) | | 536 108 | | | | 喀什红枣统货价格(日,元/公斤) | | 6.8 0 河北一级灰枣批发价格(日,元/斤) 现货市场 | 0.1 | 4.45 | | 阿拉尔红枣统货价格(日,元/公斤) | | 5.5 -0.15 河南一级灰枣批发价格(日,元/斤) | 0 | 4.45 | | 阿克苏红枣统货价格(日,单位:元/公斤) | | -0.35 河南红枣特级价格(元/公斤) 5.15 | 0 | 9.8 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's internal calls for interest rate cuts are rising again, with the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in December at 81%. The precious metals market has strongly rebounded and broken through the previous shock range. In the short term, there are no clear positive factors in the precious metals market, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations may continue to fluctuate. Gold prices are likely to move in a range. In the long term, the US debt pressure is intensifying, investors' confidence in the US dollar is weakening, and gold is still attractive as a hedge against US dollar credit. The central bank's gold purchases also support long - term gold prices. The focus ranges are 920 - 960 yuan/gram for the Shanghai Gold 2602 contract and 11700 - 12500 yuan/kg for the Shanghai Silver 2602 contract [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Shanghai Gold main contract closing price: 946.5 yuan/gram, up 16.18; Shanghai Silver main contract closing price: 12127 yuan/kg, up 319. - Shanghai Gold main contract open interest: 181169 lots, up 16549; Shanghai Silver main contract open interest: 366660 lots, up 19192. - Shanghai Gold main contract top 20 net positions: 110012 lots, up 3392; Shanghai Silver main contract top 20 net positions: 88690 lots, down 2786. - Gold warehouse receipts: 90423 kg, down 3; Silver warehouse receipts: 540572 kg, up 8273 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network gold spot price: 925.39 yuan/gram, down 2.11; Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network silver spot price: 11818 yuan/kg, down 97. - Shanghai Gold main contract basis: - 4.93 yuan/gram, down 5.49; Shanghai Silver main contract basis: 10 yuan/kg, down 225 [2] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - Gold ETF holdings: 1040.86 tons, up 0.29; Silver ETF holdings: 15511.81 tons, up 253.89. - Gold CFTC non - commercial net positions: 231956 contracts, down 20952; Silver CTFC non - commercial net positions: 46217 contracts, down 3522. - Total gold supply (quarterly): 1248.76 tons, up 42.73; Total silver supply (annually): 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4. - Total gold demand (quarterly): 1313.07 tons, up 86.25; Total global silver demand (annually): 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 [2] 3.4 Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of gold: 22.26%, up 0.14; 40 - day historical volatility of gold: 28.43%, up 0.04. - At - the - money call option implied volatility of gold: 24.37%, up 2.28; At - the - money put option implied volatility of gold: 24.38%, up 2.29 [2] 3.5 Industry News - The US and Ukraine completed a new 19 - point peace agreement draft, but sensitive issues remain to be decided. European countries warned that an agreement cannot be quickly reached, and Russia said the peace plan is not constructive. - Fed Governor Waller advocated a December interest rate cut due to a weak labor market. San Francisco Fed President Daly supported a rate cut next month, believing the risk of a sudden deterioration in the job market is greater [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The customs data shows that in October 2025, China's fresh apple exports were about 80,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons month-on-month and 20,000 tons year-on-year. From January to October 2025, the total fresh apple exports were 680,000 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 8.7%. Apples in Shandong and Shanxi are still being stored, and the ground transactions are gradually ending, with limited inventory transactions. As of November 19, 2025, the inventory in apple cold storages in major producing areas was 773160 tons, an increase of 8920 tons from last week. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 54.29%, an increase of 3.02% from last week, while that in Shaanxi was 59.10%, a decrease of 0.34% from last week. The sales area market is performing averagely. Considering the substitution effect of citrus fruits on the market, it is expected that the apple futures price will remain high in the short term [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main apple futures contract was 9491 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the main contract was 124,537 lots, a decrease of 326 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was 9900 lots, an increase of 1805 lots [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper bag, above 75) was 5.25 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Shandong Yiyuan (paper bag, above 75) it was 2.6 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper bag, above 70 semi - commercial) it was 4.2 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper bag, above 80 first - grade) it was 4 yuan/jin, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The national apple output was 5128510 tons. The weekly apple wholesale price was 9.43 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.07 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg. The total national apple cold storage inventory was 773.16 tons, an increase of 8.92 tons. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 0.59, and in Shaanxi it was 0.54. The monthly apple export volume was 80,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly import amount of fresh and dried fruits and nuts decreased by 58%. The year - on - year monthly apple export amount decreased by 14.3%. The profit of storage merchants for first - and second - grade paper - bag apples (80) was 0 yuan/jin. The weekly wholesale price of pears was 6.67 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan/kg; for bananas it was 5.34 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg; for watermelons it was 5.56 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.2 yuan/kg. The daily average number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market was 12.2, unchanged [2]. Downstream Situation - The daily average number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market was 16, unchanged; at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market it was 23.8, unchanged [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples was 26.77%, and that of at - the - money put options was 26.78%, an increase of 4.7% [2].

研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告 不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形 式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | I 主力合约收盘价（元/吨） | 794.00 | +3.50↑ I 主力合约持仓量(手) | 437,331 | -12429↓ | | | I 1-5合约价差（元/吨） | 24.5 | -2.50↓ I 合约前20名净持仓(手) | 5663 | +9545↑ | | | I 大商所仓单（手） | 800.00 | 0.00 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [1][2] 2. Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, the RB2601 contract continued to rise with decreasing positions. The central bank conducted a 10000 - billion - yuan medium - term lending facility (MLF) operation. The production of rebar stopped falling and rebounded but remained at a low level. Terminal demand increased, inventory decreased, and spot market trading volume rose. Recently, with the rebound of major furnace charges and positive macro news, the reduction of short positions in mainstream holdings supported the futures price to rise. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are rising. The reference view is oscillating bullish, and risk control should be noted [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,106.00 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan; the position volume was 1,301,038 lots, down 131,667 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 46,573 lots, down 3,448 lots. The spread between the RB1 - 5 contracts was - 19 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The daily warehouse receipt of the RB on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 67,292 tons, up 2,134 tons. The spread between the HC2601 - RB2601 contracts was 203 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,290.00 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; (actual weight) was 3,374 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan. In Guangzhou (theoretical weight), it was 3,470.00 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in Tianjin (theoretical weight), it was 3,220.00 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract was 184.00 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan. The spot spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou was 50.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port was 798.00 yuan/wet ton, up 5.00 yuan. The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,690.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,160.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,980.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 150.5088 million tons, down 750,400 tons. The inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 433,300 tons, up 73,000 tons. The inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.224 million tons, up 25,000 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 82.17%, up 0.25%. The inventory of billets in Tangshan was 1.161 million tons, down 6,200 tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 88.56%, down 0.26% [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The production of rebar at sample steel mills was 2.0796 million tons, up 79,600 tons. The capacity utilization rate of rebar at sample steel mills was 45.59%, up 1.74%. The inventory of rebar at sample steel mills was 1.5332 million tons, down 71,000 tons. The social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 4.0002 million tons, down 157,300 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 69.79%, unchanged. The domestic crude steel production was 72 million tons, down 1.49 million tons. The monthly production of Chinese steel bars was 14.75 million tons, up 410,000 tons. The net export volume of steel was 9.28 million tons, down 640,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 92.43, down 0.34. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed asset investment was - 1.70%, down 1.20%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was - 14.70%, down 0.80%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was - 0.10%, down 1.20%. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.52939 billion square meters, down 43.59 million square meters. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 490.61 million square meters, down 36.62 million square meters. The unsold area of commercial housing was 396.45 million square meters, up 2.92 million square meters [2] 3.6 Industry News - The atmosphere of the China - US presidential call was positive, friendly, and constructive. The call was initiated by the US side, and it was very important for the stable development of China - US relations. According to a survey by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE), mainstream economists expect the US economic growth to pick up slightly next year, but the job market will remain weak, and the Fed will slow down the pace of further interest rate cuts [2]

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | -195 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 15125 | 12150 | -125 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶1-5价差(日,元/吨) | 0 20号胶1-2价差(日,元/吨) | -75 | -30 | 5 | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | -70 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 2975 | 106587 | -3092 ...