瑞达期货研究院 「2025.8.22」 宏观市场周报 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 作者：廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：4008-8787-66 添加客服 业务咨询 目录 1、本周小结及下周 配置建议 2、重要新闻及事件 3、本周国内外经济 数据 4、下周重要经济指 标及经济大事 「本周小结及下周配置建议」 | 股票 | | 债券 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪深 300 +4.18% | | 10 年国债到期收益率+0.18%/本周变动+0.31BP | | | 沪深 300 股指期货 +4.54% | | 主力 10 年期国债期货 -0.52% | | | 本周点评：A股主要指数本周集体大幅上涨，创业板指 | | 本周点评：本周国债期货集体下跌，税期央行大额净投 | | | 涨超5%，科创50涨超10%。四期指亦集体走高，大小 | | 放呵护资金面，DR007加权利率回落至1.47%附近震荡。 | | | 盘股表现相对均衡。本周国内处于宏观数据真空期，市 | | 当前债市持续受市场风险偏好压制，尚未脱离权益市场 | | | 场关注上 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views of the Report - This week, industrial silicon prices decreased by 0.68%, and polysilicon prices dropped by 2.53%. The industrial silicon futures market showed a volatile trend of first falling and then rising, while the polysilicon futures market oscillated at a high level [4]. - Looking ahead, in the industrial silicon market, supply is expected to increase in the southwest region due to the deepening of the wet season, but demand from the three major downstream industries remains flat overall. For polysilicon, supply is increasing while demand is weakening, and the market is likely to face further adjustments and continue to oscillate [4]. - In terms of operations, it is recommended that the main contract of industrial silicon oscillates within the range of 8000 - 9000, with a stop - loss range of 7500 - 9500. The main contract of polysilicon is expected to oscillate in the short term, within the range of 46000 - 53000, with a stop - loss range of 44000 - 55000 [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon futures first fell and then rose this week, while polysilicon futures oscillated at a high level. After reaching over 52000, the polysilicon price dropped again due to low market acceptance of high - priced goods [4]. - **Market Outlook**: - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply in the southwest is expected to increase as the wet season deepens, but demand from downstream industries shows different trends. Organic silicon demand is negative, while polysilicon demand is expected to increase in August but may be limited in the long term. Aluminum alloy demand remains stable [4]. - **Polysilicon**: Supply is increasing, and demand is weakening due to factors such as weak terminal demand and a supply - strong and demand - weak market structure in the photovoltaic industry [4]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The main contract of industrial silicon should be mainly range - bound, and the main contract of polysilicon should oscillate in the short term, with specific ranges provided [4]. 2. Spot and Futures Markets - **Price Movements**: This week, both industrial silicon and polysilicon futures prices declined. Industrial silicon spot prices decreased, and the basis narrowed. Polysilicon spot prices increased, and the basis strengthened [4][10][14]. - **Output and Capacity Utilization**: As of August 21, 2025, the national industrial silicon output was about 79,800 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 54.95%. The output and capacity utilization rate remained unchanged this week [20]. 3. Industry Situation - **Cost and Price**: This week, the raw materials for industrial silicon decreased, and electricity prices remained stable during the wet season, keeping the overall cost low. The price of aluminum alloy increased, and the inventory increased significantly [23][45]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of August 21, 2025, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts was 51,166 lots, a net increase of 465 lots [30]. - **Downstream Industry**: - **Organic Silicon**: Output and the operating rate decreased, and profits declined due to cost and price changes [32][37][43]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The inventory increased significantly, and it is expected that the demand for industrial silicon will remain weak [45][47]. - **Silicon Wafer and Battery Cell**: Prices remained flat, which is expected to drag down the demand for polysilicon [52][57]. - **Polysilicon Industry**: Costs decreased, profits and output increased, indicating that the industry is gradually improving [59][62].

Report Information - Report Title: Cotton (Yarn) Market Weekly Report - Cotton Fluctuates, Awaits Demand Improvement [2] - Report Date: August 22, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Xin [3] - Researcher Qualification: Futures Practitioner Qualification Number F03109641, Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Z0018457 [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2601 closed lower with a weekly decline of about 0.64%, and the cotton yarn futures 2511 contract fell 0.62% [7][20] - Domestically, cotton is in a de - stocking state, supply is tight before the new cotton is listed, and spot prices are firm. Although inland textile enterprises have no profit, there are expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" demand peak season, and the operating rate has slightly increased. The overall cotton planting area in China increased in 2025, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather on new crop growth [7] - In general, tight supply of old crops and expected demand improvement are expected to boost the short - term cotton trend, while the medium - term trend is suppressed by the expected increase in new cotton production. It is recommended to go long on dips in the short - term and control risks [7] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Analysis**: Zhengzhou cotton main 2601 contract and cotton yarn futures 2511 contract both declined this week [7][20] - **Market Outlook**: Tight supply of old crops, expected demand improvement, new crop growth affected by weather. Short - term trend positive, medium - term suppressed by new crop increase [7] - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to foreign cotton prices, macro factors, trade policies, and weather factors [7] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the December US cotton contract fell this week with a weekly decline of about 0.19%. As of August 12, 2025, non - commercial long positions decreased by 2.66% month - on - month, non - commercial short positions increased by 1.04% month - on - month, and the net position decreased by 8.35% month - on - month [10] - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: The US current market - year cotton export sales increased by 105,400 bales, and shipments were 123,300 bales. New sales were 138,800 bales, lower than last week. As of August 18, 2025, the Cotlook:A index was 79.15 cents per pound, down 0.31% month - on - month [15] - **Futures Market**: Zhengzhou cotton main 2601 contract and cotton yarn futures 2511 contract declined. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 48,516, and in cotton yarn futures was - 380 lots. Cotton futures warehouse receipts were 7,198 lots, and cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts were 64 lots [20][26][33] - **Futures and Spot Price Difference**: The price difference between Zhengzhou cotton 1 - 5 contracts was 40 yuan/ton, and the price difference between cotton 3128B and cotton yarn C32S was 5,457 yuan/ton [35] - **Spot Market**: As of August 22, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,243 yuan/ton, and the Chinese cotton yarn spot C32S index price was 20,700 yuan/ton. As of August 19, 2025, CY index:OEC10s was 14,800 yuan/ton [41][52] - **Futures Basis**: The basis between the cotton 3128B price index and the Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract was + 1,213 yuan/ton, and the basis between the cotton yarn C32S spot price and the cotton yarn futures 2511 contract was 640 yuan/ton [47] - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of August 19, 2025, the 1% quota port pick - up price of imported cotton increased by 0.38% month - on - month, and the sliding - scale duty port pick - up price increased by 0.20% month - on - month. The port pick - up prices of imported cotton yarn C32S, C21S, and JC32S all declined slightly [59] - **Imported Cotton Cost - Profit**: As of August 19, 2025, the cost - profit of imported cotton sliding - scale duty port pick - up price (M) was 894 yuan/ton, and that of 1% quota port pick - up price was 1,650 yuan/ton [63] 3. Industry Situation - **Supply Side - Commercial Inventory**: As of July 31, 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 2.1898 million tons, down 22.62% month - on - month, and the industrial cotton inventory was 898,400 tons, up 1.85% month - on - month [67] - **Supply Side - Import Volume**: In July 2025, China's cotton import volume was 50,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%. From January to July, the cumulative cotton import volume was 520,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.2%. In July 2025, the imported cotton yarn volume was 110,000 tons, and from January to June, the cumulative imported cotton yarn volume was 780,000 tons [71] - **Mid - end Industry - Demand Side**: As of July 31, 2025, the yarn inventory days were 27.67 days, down 2.43% month - on - month, and the grey cloth inventory days were 36.14 days, down 2.95% month - on - month [75] - **Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Export**: As of July 31, 2025, the export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 1.1604009 billion US dollars, down 3.69% month - on - month, and the export value of clothing and accessories was 1.5161759 billion US dollars, down 0.69% month - on - month [79] - **Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Domestic Retail**: As of June 30, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing were 534.13 billion yuan, up 20.42% month - on - month, and the cumulative year - on - year was 2.5%, down 3.85% month - on - month [83] 4. Options and Stock Market - Related Market - **Options Market**: Implied volatility of at - the - money cotton options this week [84] - **Stock Market - Xinjiang Nongkai Agriculture Development Co., Ltd.**: P/E ratio trend [89]

Group 1: Report Summary - The weekly closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Tin was 265,930 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.33% and an amplitude of 1.72% [7] - Macroscopically, the preliminary value of the US manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, reaching a new high in more than three years, intensifying inflationary pressures. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments will further standardize the competition order in the photovoltaic industry and curb low - price disorderly competition [7] - Fundamentally, although Myanmar's Wa State has restarted the approval of mining licenses, actual ore production will not occur until the fourth quarter. The Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in phases, and currently, tin ore processing fees remain at historically low levels [7] - In the smelting sector, the increase in production in July was mainly due to multiple factors such as the resumption of production by some enterprises and the cleaning of intermediate products. However, the shortage of raw materials in the Yunnan production area remains severe, and the waste recycling system in the Jiangxi production area is under pressure, with the operating rate remaining at a low level [7] - On the demand side, due to the traditional off - season, most downstream processing enterprises only maintain rigid demand for production and procurement, and orders are mediocre. Recently, tin prices have fluctuated, and most downstream enterprises make rigid - demand purchases at low prices, with some post - pricing orders [7] - Technically, with low positions and caution from both long and short sides, and support at the lower edge of the range, it is expected to mainly fluctuate and adjust [7] - The recommended strategy is to temporarily wait and see or go long lightly at low prices, focusing on the 265,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton range [7] Group 2: Futures and Spot Market - As of August 22, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Tin was 265,930 yuan/ton, a decrease of 280 yuan/ton from August 15, a decline of 0.11%. As of August 21, 2025, the closing price of LME Tin was 33,475 US dollars/ton, an increase of 40 US dollars/ton from August 15, a rise of 0.12%. The spot premium remained stable at 400 yuan/ton [7][12] - As of August 22, 2025, the current ratio of tin to nickel prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 2.23, an increase of 0.02 from August 15. As of August 21, 2025, the Shanghai - LME tin ratio was 7.96, a decrease of 0.03 from August 14 [16] - As of August 22, 2025, the trading volume of Shanghai Tin was 48,043 lots, a decrease of 1,832 lots from August 15, a decline of 3.67%. The net position of the top 20 was - 3,051 lots, a decrease of 1,349 lots from August 18 [22][23] Group 3: Industrial Chain - Supply Side - In July 2025, the import volume of tin ore concentrates was 10,277.61 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.71% and a year - on - year decrease of 31.58%. From January to July this year, the imported tin ore concentrates totaled 72,406.18 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.15% [28] - In July 2025, the output of refined tin was 15,448 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8%. From January to July, the cumulative output of refined tin was 87,175 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.34% [29] - On August 22, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrates was 6,500 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from August 15; the processing fee for 40% tin concentrates was 10,500 yuan/ton, also unchanged from August 15 [34] - As of August 22, 2025, the average price of 40% tin concentrates was 254,000 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from August 15; the average price of 60% tin concentrates was 258,000 yuan/ton, also unchanged from August 15 [34] - As of August 22, 2025, the import loss of tin was 6,131.93 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8,314.3 yuan/ton from August 15 [39] - In July 2025, the import volume of refined tin was 2,166.7 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.34% and a year - on - year increase of 157.87%. From January to July, the cumulative import of refined tin was 15,110.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 47.88%. In July 2025, the export volume of refined tin was 1,672.77 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.23% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.76%. From January to July, the cumulative export of refined tin was 13,463.29 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 32.99% [40] - As of August 21, 2025, the total LME tin inventory was 1,740 tons, a decrease of 90 tons from August 14, a decline of 4.92%. As of August 22, 2025, the total tin inventory was 7,491 tons, a decrease of 301 tons from the previous week, a decline of 3.86%. The tin futures inventory was 7,053 tons, a decrease of 373 tons from August 15, a decline of 5.02% [45] Group 4: Industrial Chain - Demand Side - On August 21, 2025, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 5,603.26, a decrease of 282.23 from August 14, a decline of 4.8%. From January to July 2025, the output of integrated circuits was 29,454,570.7 million pieces, an increase of 5,009,313.4 million pieces compared with the same period last year, an increase of 20.49% [48] - As of June 2025, the output of tin - plated sheets was 110,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from May 2025, a rise of 10%. As of July 2025, the export volume of tin - plated sheets was 206,020.05 tons, an increase of 73,104.23 tons from June, an increase of 55% [51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main contract of Shanghai Zinc fluctuated and declined, with a weekly change of -1.02% and an amplitude of 1.29%. The closing price of the main contract was 22,275 yuan/ton. Looking ahead, macro - factors show that the preliminary value of the US manufacturing PMI in August reached 53.3, hitting a new high in more than three years and increasing inflation pressure. In terms of fundamentals, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad has risen, the zinc ore processing fee has continued to increase, and the sulfuric acid price has risen significantly, leading to a further repair of smelter profits and increased production enthusiasm. New production capacities are being released, and previously overhauled capacities are resuming production, accelerating the growth of supply. Currently, the import loss continues to expand, and the inflow of imported zinc has decreased. On the demand side, it is the off - season, the operating rate of processing enterprises has decreased year - on - year. After the recent decline in zinc prices, downstream enterprises mainly purchase on - demand at low prices, and the overall transaction has improved. Domestic social inventories have slightly decreased, and the spot premium has remained stable. Overseas LME inventories have decreased significantly, and the LME spot premium has been adjusted downward, which may weaken the support for domestic zinc prices. Technically, the price is adjusting at a low position of holdings, and attention should be paid to the support at 22,200. It is recommended to wait and see or go long lightly at low prices [4]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Zinc fluctuated and declined this week, with a weekly change of -1.02% and an amplitude of 1.29%. The closing price of the main contract was 22,275 yuan/ton [4]. - **Market Outlook**: Macroeconomic factors include the high US manufacturing PMI and inflation pressure. Fundamentally, supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at 22,200 [4]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see or go long lightly at low prices [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Ratio**: The price of Shanghai Zinc futures declined this week, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased. As of August 22, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Zinc was 22,275 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan/ton from August 15, 2025, with a decline of 1.02%. As of August 21, 2025, the closing price of LME Zinc was 2,767 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 75.5 US dollars/ton from August 15, 2025, with a decline of 2.66% [9]. - **Net Position and Open Interest**: As of August 22, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc was -7,709 lots, a decrease of 26,519 lots from August 15, 2025. The open interest of Shanghai Zinc was 211,313 lots, a decrease of 4,138 lots from August 15, 2025, with a decline of 1.92% [12]. - **Price Spreads**: As of August 22, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,645 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton from August 15, 2025. The lead - zinc futures spread was 5,495 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160 yuan/ton from August 15, 2025 [16]. - **Premium and Discount**: As of August 22, 2025, the spot price of 0 zinc ingot was 22,210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton from August 15, 2025, with a decline of 1.11%. The spot discount was 45 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from last week. As of August 21, 2025, the LME zinc near - month and 3 - month spread was -7.54 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6.98 US dollars/ton from August 14, 2025 [22]. - **Inventory**: As of August 21, 2025, the LME refined zinc inventory was 69,375 tons, a decrease of 8,075 tons from August 14, 2025, with a decline of 10.43%. As of August 22, 2025, the SHFE refined zinc inventory was 77,838 tons, an increase of 1,035 tons from last week, with an increase of 1.35%. As of August 21, 2025, the domestic refined zinc social inventory was 117,600 tons, an increase of 7,600 tons from August 14, 2025, with an increase of 6.91% [25]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream**: In May 2025, the global zinc ore output was 1.0193 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.37% and a year - on - year increase of 2.49%. In July 2025, the import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 501,424.97 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.97% and a year - on - year increase of 37.75% [31]. - **Supply - Side**: In May 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.1164 million tons, a decrease of 48,700 tons from the same period last year, with a decline of 4.18%. The global refined zinc consumption was 1.1605 million tons, an increase of 36,800 tons from the same period last year, with an increase of 3.27%. The global refined zinc gap was 44,100 tons. In July 2025, the zinc output was 617,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.8%. From January to July, the cumulative zinc output was 4.166 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. In July 2025, the refined zinc import volume was 17,903.91 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.97%. The refined zinc export volume was 406.07 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 85.11% [36][40][43]. - **Downstream**: - Galvanized sheet (strip): From January to June 2025, the inventory of domestic major enterprises' galvanized sheet (strip) was 790,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.31%. In July 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheet (strip) was 30,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 39.92%. The export volume was 346,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 43.29% [46]. - Real estate: From January to July 2025, the new housing construction area was 352.0614 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.5%. The housing completion area was 250.3441 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 21.19%. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 5.728655 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 7.5%. Among them, personal mortgage loans were 791.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3% [51][52]. - Infrastructure: In July 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.34, a decrease of 0.25 from last month and an increase of 1.23 from the same period last year. From January to July 2025, the infrastructure investment increased by 7.29% year - on - year [57]. - Home appliances: In July 2025, the refrigerator output was 8.7307 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5%. From January to July, the cumulative refrigerator output was 59.6315 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. In July 2025, the air - conditioner output was 20.5965 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. From January to July, the cumulative air - conditioner output was 183.4554 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.1% [61]. - Automobile: In July 2025, the Chinese automobile sales volume was 2,593,410 units, a year - on - year increase of 14.66%. The automobile production volume was 2,591,084 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.33% [64].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of August 22, the closing price of the hot-rolled coil's main contract was 3361 yuan/ton, down 78 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Hangzhou Liantie hot-rolled coil was 3440 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton [7]. - The production of hot-rolled coils continued to increase, reaching 325.24 million tons, up 9.65 million tons week-on-week and 14.97 million tons year-on-year. Terminal demand showed strong resilience, with apparent demand rising to 321.27 million tons, up 6.52 million tons week-on-week and 2.68 million tons year-on-year. Total inventory continued to increase to 361.44 million tons, up 3.97 million tons week-on-week but down 80.77 million tons year-on-year. The steel mill profitability rate was 64.94%, down 0.86 percentage points week-on-week but up 63.64 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - Overseas, the Trump administration in the United States announced an expansion of the scope of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products. Globally, the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium attracted attention, with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell scheduled to give a keynote speech. Domestically, Premier Li Qiang emphasized enhancing the effectiveness of macro - policies [9]. - The weekly production of hot-rolled coils continued to rise, with a capacity utilization rate of 83.08%, remaining at a high level. Terminal demand was good, with apparent demand exceeding 3.2 million tons, while inventory continued to increase slightly. Iron ore was resilient due to high pig iron production, while coking coal and coke prices declined [9]. - Technically, the HC2510 contract decreased in volume, with the futures price under pressure from multiple moving averages. The MACD indicator showed a downward adjustment of DIFF and DEA, with an expanding green bar. It is recommended to focus on Powell's speech. Considering pre - parade production cuts in some areas next week, the steel price trend may fluctuate. Short - term trading of the HC2510 contract is advisable, with attention to operation rhythm and risk control [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - ly Key Points Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - Price: As of August 22, the closing price of the hot-rolled coil's main contract was 3361 yuan/ton (-78), and the spot price of Hangzhou Liantie hot-rolled coil was 3440 yuan/ton (-60) [7]. - Production: Hot-rolled coil production continued to increase to 325.24 million tons (+9.65), year-on-year +14.97 million tons [7]. - Demand: Terminal demand showed strong resilience, with apparent demand rising to 321.27 million tons (+6.52), year-on-year +2.68 million tons [7]. - Inventory: Factory inventory decreased while social inventory increased, and total inventory continued to rise to 361.44 million tons (+3.97), year-on-year -80.77 million tons [7]. - Profitability Rate: The steel mill profitability rate was 64.94%, down 0.86 percentage points week-on-week but up 63.64 percentage points year-on-year [7]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Macro: Overseas, the US expanded the tariff scope on steel and aluminum imports, and the market awaited Powell's speech. Domestically, the government aimed to enhance macro - policy effectiveness. - Supply - Demand: Hot-rolled coil production continued to rise, with high capacity utilization. Terminal demand was good, and inventory increased slightly [9]. - Cost: Iron ore was resilient, while coking coal and coke prices declined due to increased mine production and reduced steel mill inventory - building意愿 [9]. - Technical: The HC2510 contract decreased in volume, with the futures price under pressure and the MACD indicator showing a downward trend [9]. - Strategy: Focus on Powell's speech. With production cuts in some areas next week, steel prices may fluctuate. Consider short - term trading of the HC2510 contract [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price: This week, the HC2510 contract decreased in volume. It was stronger than the HC2601 contract, with a spread of 9 yuan/ton on the 22nd, up 2 yuan/ton week-on-week [15]. - Warehouse Receipts and Net Positions: On August 22, the hot-rolled coil warehouse receipts at the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 33,115 tons, down 46,171 tons week-on-week. The net short position of the top 20 holders of hot-rolled coil futures contracts was 54,853 contracts, down 30,797 contracts from last week [21]. - Spot Price: On August 22, the Shanghai hot-rolled coil spot price was 3440 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton week-on-week; the national average was 3459 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton week-on-week. The spot price was stronger than the futures price, with a basis of 79 yuan/ton on the 22nd, up 18 yuan/ton week-on-week [27]. 3.3 Upstream Market - Raw Material Prices: On August 22, the price of 61% Australian Macfayden iron ore at Qingdao Port was 820 yuan/tonne, down 20 yuan/tonne week-on-week. The spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1620 yuan/ton, unchanged week-on-week [32]. - Ore Arrivals: From August 11 - 17, the global iron ore shipments increased by 359.9 million tons. The shipments from Australia and Brazil increased by 225.7 million tons. The arrivals at 47 Chinese ports increased by 131.5 million tons [37]. - Ore Inventory: This week, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports increased by 62.63 million tons. The inventory of billets in Tangshan increased by 3.57 million tons week-on-week [41]. - Coking Plant: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 74.17%, up 0.04%. Coke production and inventory increased, while coking coal inventory decreased [45]. 3.4 Industry Situation 3.4.1 Supply Side - Steel Output and Exports: In July 2025, national crude steel production was 79.66 million tons, down 4.0% year-on-year. Steel exports in July were 9.836 million tons, up 1.6% month-on-month; imports were 452,000 tons, down 3.8% month-on-month [49]. - Blast Furnace Operation: On August 21, the weekly production of hot-rolled coils was 3.2524 million tons, up 965,000 tons week-on-week. On August 22, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.36%, down 0.23 percentage points week-on-week [51][53]. - Inventory: On August 21, the factory inventory of hot-rolled coils was 788,900 tons, down 1090 tons week-on-week. The social inventory in 33 cities was 2.8255 million tons, up 50,600 tons week-on-week. The total inventory was 3.6144 million tons, up 39,700 tons week-on-week [58]. 3.4.2 Demand Side - Automobile and Home Appliance: In July 2025, automobile production and sales increased by 14.7% and 13.3% year-on-year respectively. From January - July, the production of household air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines increased by 5.1%, 0.9%, and 9.4% year-on-year respectively [61].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the natural rubber price increase was limited due to mixed factors. The offer prices in the imported rubber market moved upwards, and downstream factories showed active buying. The offer prices of domestic natural rubber spot followed the market upward, but downstream buying was lukewarm [6]. - Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan's supply is tight due to weather, while Hainan's production is normal. Some factories are competing for raw materials due to potential typhoons. Qingdao's total inventory is decreasing, with bonded warehouses accumulating and general trade warehouses continuing to deplete. Demand-side tire capacity utilization increased this week but may decline slightly next week [6]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15,500 - 16,000 in the short term, and the nr2510 contract between 12,480 - 12,900 [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Summary - **Market Review**: Mixed factors limited the upward movement of rubber prices. Imported rubber offers rose, and downstream buying was active. Domestic spot offers followed the market up, but downstream buying was weak [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Yunnan's raw material supply is tight, while Hainan's is normal. Some factories are competing for raw materials due to potential typhoons. Qingdao's total inventory is decreasing. Tire capacity utilization may decline slightly next week [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15,500 - 16,000, and the nr2510 contract between 12,480 - 12,900 [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - The main contract price of Shanghai rubber fell 1.76% this week, and the 20 - rubber main contract price fell 1.57% [11]. - As of August 22, the spread between Shanghai rubber's September and January contracts was -955, and the spread between 20 - rubber's September and October contracts was -20 [19]. - As of August 22, Shanghai rubber's warehouse receipts were 178,470 tons, a decrease of 1,460 tons from last week; 20 - rubber's warehouse receipts were 44,857 tons, a decrease of 1,612 tons from last week [24]. - **Spot Market** - As of August 21, the price of state - owned whole latex was 14,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week [30]. - As of August 21, the basis of 20 - rubber was 390 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was -1,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 115 yuan/ton from last week [35]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream** - As of August 21, the price of field latex in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 54.7 (+0.5) Thai baht/kg; cup lump was 49.2 (-0.6) Thai baht/kg. As of August 22, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 37.8 dollars/ton, an increase of 4.6 dollars/ton from last week [39]. - As of August 21, the price of Yunnan latex was 14,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week; the price of Hainan fresh latex was 14,400 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [42]. - **Import and Inventory** - In July 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 474,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.6005 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.82% [46]. - As of August 17, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 616,700 tons, a decrease of 3,100 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.50%. The bonded area inventory was 76,900 tons, an increase of 2.12%; the general trade inventory was 539,800 tons, a decline of 0.87% [50]. - **Downstream** - As of August 21, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.87%, a month - on - month increase of 2.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.81 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.97%, a month - on - month increase of 2.35 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 7.01 percentage points [53]. - In July 2025, China's tire exports were 812,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to July, the cumulative tire exports were 4.9339 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18% [57]. - In July 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 42%. From January to July, the cumulative heavy - truck sales were about 622,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [60].

Group 1: Report Highlights - The domestic urea market rose this week. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex-factory price of small and medium-sized urea particles in Shandong dropped to 1,730 - 1,770 yuan/ton, with the average price up 45 yuan/ton week-on-week [6]. - The daily output of domestic urea increased slightly due to the restart of some devices. Next week, 4 enterprises are planned to stop production and 1 is expected to resume, with a higher probability of reduced output considering short - term malfunctions [6]. - Domestic agricultural demand is in the seasonal off - season with only sporadic local demand. Industrial compound fertilizer has phased replenishment, but its capacity utilization rate is expected to decline slightly, reducing the rigid demand for urea [6]. - Although some urea enterprises' inventories decreased due to export orders and maintenance, the overall enterprise inventory is still on the rise. Short - term export news is beneficial for inventory reduction, but the decline may be limited [6]. - The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,720 - 1,800 yuan in the short term [6]. Group 2: Futures Market Futures Price - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures fluctuated and closed higher this week, with a weekly increase of 0.12% [9]. Inter - Delivery Spread - As of August 22, the UR 9 - 1 spread was - 24 [12]. Futures Warehouse Receipt - As of August 15, the number of Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts was 3,573, an increase of 200 compared to last week [21]. Group 3: Spot Market Domestic Spot Price - As of August 21, the mainstream price of urea in Shandong was 1,760 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was also 1,760 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [26]. Foreign Spot Price - As of August 21, the FOB price of Chinese urea was 450 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton compared to last week [29]. Basis - As of August 21, the urea basis was - 4 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton compared to last week [34]. Group 4: Upstream Situation - As of August 20, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5,500 kcal was 670 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [37]. - As of August 21, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 2.81 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.04 US dollars/million British thermal units compared to last week [37]. Group 5: Industry Situation Capacity Utilization and Output - As of August 21, China's urea production was 136.11 tons, up 1.25 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 0.93%; the capacity utilization rate was 83.99%, up 0.77% from the previous period [40]. Inventory - As of August 21, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 50.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.7 tons, a rise of 7.97% [43]. - As of August 20, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 102.39 tons, an increase of 6.65 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 6.95% [43]. Export - In June 2025, urea exports were 66,240.55 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,618.13%; the average export price was 366.28 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 4,662.05% [46]. Group 6: Downstream Situation - As of August 21, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 40.84%, down 2.64 percentage points from the previous period and expected to decline slightly next week [49]. - As of August 21, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 46.60%, down 3.22 percentage points from last week [49].

Report Overview - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Market Weekly Report - Report Date: August 22, 2025 - Researcher: Lin Jingyi Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of domestic cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market fluctuated continuously, with the spot price ranging from 11,500 to 11,900 yuan/ton. The price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber of Sinopec Chemical Marketing and CNPC's mainstream sales companies increased by 100 yuan/ton [6]. - Most previously shut - down cis - butadiene rubber plants have restarted, and domestic production has increased. Due to the influence of the surrounding market, the mainstream supply price has further increased, but the strong price - pressing procurement sentiment of downstream enterprises has led to slow terminal sales. Next week, the production capacity of some shut - down plants will be significantly released, and domestic supply may increase significantly, while the finished product inventory level is expected to rise [6]. - This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased month - on - month. Next week, due to factors such as high - temperature weather and limited overall order growth, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may decline slightly [6]. - The short - term fluctuation range of the br2510 contract is expected to be between 11,600 and 12,000 [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - week Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: The price of domestic cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market fluctuated continuously, and the price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber of mainstream sales companies increased by 100 yuan/ton [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply may increase significantly next week, and the finished product inventory level is expected to rise. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may decline slightly [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The short - term fluctuation range of the br2510 contract is expected to be between 11,600 and 12,000 [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 1.35% [10]. - **Position Analysis**: Not detailed in the given content. - **Inter - period Spread**: As of August 22, the 9 - 10 spread of butadiene rubber was 20 [17]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: As of August 22, the cis - butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 2,490 tons, unchanged from last week [20]. Spot Market - **Spot Price**: As of August 21, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week [24]. - **Basis**: As of August 21, the basis of butadiene rubber was - 25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton from last week [24]. 3. Industry Situation Upstream - **Raw Material Prices**: As of August 21, the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in Japan was 584.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 12.5 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF intermediate price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 830 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton from last week [28]. - **Capacity Utilization and Inventory of Butadiene**: As of August 22, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 68.15%, a decrease of 1.11% from last week; the port inventory of butadiene was 27,300 tons, an increase of 6,900 tons from last week [31]. Industry - **Production and Capacity Utilization of Cis - butadiene Rubber**: In July 2025, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber was 129,200 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons from the previous month. As of August 21, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 69.15%, an increase of 0.95% from last week [35]. - **Production Profit of Cis - butadiene Rubber**: As of August 21, the domestic production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 458 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton from last week [38]. - **Inventory of Cis - butadiene Rubber**: As of August 22, the domestic social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 30,610 tons, an increase of 170 tons from last week; the manufacturer's inventory was 23,200 tons, a decrease of 250 tons from last week; the trader's inventory was 7,410 tons, an increase of 420 tons from last week [42]. Downstream - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of August 21, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.87%, a month - on - month increase of 2.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.81 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.97%, a month - on - month increase of 2.35 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 7.01 percentage points [45]. - **Tire Export Volume**: In July 2025, China's tire export volume was 812,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to July, China's cumulative tire export volume was 4.9339 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18% [48]. 4. Option Market Analysis - Not provided in the report

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market was initially pressured by the spill - over risk of steel and aluminum tariffs, but silver prices recovered since Thursday. Trump's pressure on the Fed and potential impacts on the dollar's credit support gold prices. The Fed has differences in views on interest rate cuts, and the US macro - data shows economic resilience, keeping gold in a range - bound pattern and silver showing relative resilience [7]. - Future market trading may focus on the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire expectation and Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. The risk of stagflation remains a market concern, and the Fed's officials being intervened by the government may support gold's safe - haven demand [7]. - It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, paying attention to the unexpected results of Russia - Ukraine negotiations and the Fed's hawkish stance. Specific price ranges are given for gold and silver contracts [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The precious metals market was pressured by steel and aluminum tariffs, but silver recovered. Trump's actions and Fed's internal differences affected the market. US macro - data showed economic resilience, with the manufacturing PMI rising and employment data showing some weakness [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The US economic data fluctuates due to tariff expectations, and the employment market shows signs of cooling. The Fed's officials being intervened may support gold's safe - haven demand. Market trading will focus on the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire and Powell's speech [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Short - term investors are advised to wait and see, paying attention to negotiation results and Fed's stance. Specific price ranges are provided for gold and silver contracts [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Changes**: As of August 22, 2025, COMEX silver rose 1.05% to $38.42 per ounce, while the Shanghai silver futures contract fell 0.13%. COMEX gold fell 0.35% to $3370 per ounce, and the Shanghai gold futures contract fell 0.41% [10]. - **ETF Holdings**: As of August 21, 2025, the SLV silver ETF's holdings increased 1.40% to 15278 tons, and the SPDR gold ETF's holdings decreased 0.50% to 956.77 tons [15]. - **Speculative Net Positions**: As of August 12, 2025, both COMEX gold and silver speculative net positions decreased, with gold's total and net positions falling 0.78% and 3.19% respectively, and silver's total and net positions falling 3.00% and 12.61% respectively [20]. - **CFTC Positions**: As of August 12, 2025, COMEX gold's non - commercial long positions decreased 1.40%, and short positions increased 6.30% [25]. - **Basis Changes**: As of August 21, 2025, the gold basis fell 27.68% to - $3.46 per gram, and the silver basis fell 12.50% to - $18 per kilogram [27]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of August 21, 2025, COMEX gold inventory decreased 0.18%, while Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold inventory increased 0.83%. COMEX silver inventory increased 0.20%, and SHFE silver inventory decreased 1.50% [35] 3. Industrial Supply and Demand Silver - **Import Data**: As of July 2025, China's silver imports decreased 7.46% month - on - month, while silver ore imports increased 22.32% [39]. - **Down - stream Demand**: As of July 2025, semiconductor silver demand drove up the growth rate of integrated circuit production, with a 15% year - on - year increase [45]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2024, silver's industrial demand increased 4%, coin and net bar demand decreased 22%, and ETF net investment demand turned positive. The supply - demand gap has been narrowing, with a 26% decrease in 2024 [51][55] Gold - **Price Changes**: As of August 21, 2025, the Chinese gold recycling price rose 0.25% week - on - week, and gold jewelry prices showed mixed trends [59]. - **Demand Changes**: In Q2 2025, the World Gold Council reported a slight decline in gold ETF investment demand. Central bank gold purchases slowed, and high gold prices led to a marginal decline in gold jewelry manufacturing demand [61] 4. Macroeconomic and Options - **Dollar and Interest Rates**: The expectation of interest rate cuts decreased slightly, and the dollar strengthened this week. The 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread narrowed, the CBOE gold volatility increased, and the SP500/COMEX gold price ratio decreased. The 10 - year US break - even inflation rate remained basically flat [65][70][74] - **Central Bank Actions**: In August 2025, the People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by about 2.18 tons [78]