Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate have not changed significantly, with both supply and demand increasing. Inventory remains high but is being depleted [2]. - The option market sentiment has turned bullish, with a decrease in implied volatility [2]. - The operation suggestion is to conduct short - selling transactions at high prices with a light position and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythm [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 79,380 yuan/ton, up 420 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 132,250 hands, up 6,209 hands; the position volume of the main contract is 368,667 hands, up 6,413 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is 540 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the warehouse receipts of GZEE are 24,990 hands/ton, up 670 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 82,500 yuan/ton, down 1,400 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 80,200 yuan/ton, down 1,400 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is 3,120 yuan/ton, down 1,820 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 970 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 7,735 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 2,645 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Lithium carbonate production is 44,600 tons per month, up 500 tons; imports are 13,845.31 tons per month, down 3,852.31 tons; exports are 366.35 tons per month, down 63.31 tons; the operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 48%, down 4 percentage points; power battery production is 133,800 MWh per month, up 4,600 MWh [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 52%, up 1 percentage point; the operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 51%, down 1 percentage point; the monthly production of new energy vehicles is 1,243,000, down 25,000; the monthly sales are 1,262,000, down 67,000; the cumulative sales penetration rate is 44.99%, up 0.68 percentage points; the monthly export is 225,000, up 20,000; the cumulative export is 1.308 million, up 600,000 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The total subscription position is 199,430, up 35,436; the total put position is 148,570, down 3,546; the put - call ratio of total positions is 74.5%, down 18.2597 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV is down 0.0243 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In July 2025, the total import volume of spodumene was about 751,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30.4%, equivalent to about 67,000 tons of LCE [2]. - Ganfeng Lithium said it is deploying two key materials in the field of sulfide solid - state battery materials, and its lithium sulfide products have passed customer quality certification and are supplied to multiple downstream customers [2]. - From January to July, the added value of the five major industries in the machinery industry increased year - on - year, with the general equipment manufacturing industry growing by 8.3%, the special equipment manufacturing industry by 3.8%, the automobile manufacturing industry by 10.9%, the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry by 11.9%, and the instrument and meter manufacturing industry by 7.1% [2]. - The State Council executive meeting and the national video - teleconference on promoting the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones have made arrangements for the next stage, and experts believe that the policy may increase financial support and expand the scope of product categories [2].

铝类产业日报 2025/8/25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 20,770.00 45.00 | +140.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) -10.00↓ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | 3,184.00 -11.00 | +46.00↑ -19.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 248,343.00 | +11056.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 193,845.00 | +10870.00↑ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 13,250.00 | -800.00↓ 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) | 103,364.00 | +14952.00↑ | | 期货市场 | LME电解铝三个月报价（日，美元/吨） | 2,622.00 | +29.00↑ LME铝库存（日，吨） | 478,725.00 | -800.0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market has not yet emerged from an independent market and is continuously suppressed by market risk appetite, with a significant "see - saw" effect between stocks and bonds [94]. - The next - stage monetary policy will continue the moderately loose tone but focus more on structural tools, and the scope for overall easing may be limited. The interest rate center lacks further downward momentum, and the rebound power of treasury bond futures is insufficient. The liquidity factor is expected to dominate the short - term bond market trading logic [94]. - It is expected that the treasury bond futures market will show a volatile and bearish pattern, and there are currently no trend - based long - buying opportunities [94]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Market Review - The main contracts of treasury bond futures all declined this week. The TL (30 - year) main contract fell 1.28%, the T (10 - year) main contract fell 0.59%, the TF (5 - year) main contract fell 0.27%, and the TS (2 - year) main contract fell 0.03% [11][15][21]. - The trading volume of the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts all increased, while the open interest of the TS, T, TF, and TL main contracts all decreased [29]. 3.2. News Review and Analysis - Policy and regulatory news: The five - department joint notice expanded the withdrawal conditions for personal pensions; the central bank increased the re - loan quota for supporting agriculture and small businesses by 100 billion yuan; the Financial Regulatory Administration plans to introduce the "Administrative Measures for Commercial Bank Merger and Acquisition Loans" [7]. - Domestic economic data: In July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, social consumer goods retail sales increased by 3.7% year - on - year, fixed - asset investment decreased by 0.63% year - on - year, and the unemployment rate remained flat year - on - year. In July, RMB loans decreased by 5 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase in the reduction of 31 billion yuan; the social financing increment in July was 116 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 38.93 billion yuan; the year - on - year growth rate of M1 in July was 5.6%, and that of M2 was 8.8%. China's official manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4 percentage points [8]. - Overseas economic data: The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, the highest since May 2022. The US initial jobless claims last week increased by 11,000 to 235,000, the highest since June. The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that officials were divided on the issue of interest rate cuts [8]. 3.3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes** - The yield spread between 10 - year and 5 - year bonds narrowed slightly, while the spread between 10 - year and 1 - year bonds widened slightly [42]. - The spreads between the 2 - year and 5 - year, and 5 - year and 10 - year main contracts of treasury bond futures narrowed [46]. - The inter - term spread of the 10 - year contract narrowed, and the inter - term spread of the 30 - year contract widened slightly. The inter - term spread of the 2 - year contract fluctuated, and the inter - term spread of the 5 - year contract widened [50][57]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Main Position Changes**: The net long positions of the top 20 holders of the T main contract increased significantly [63]. - **Interest Rate Changes** - The overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, and 1 - month Shibor rates all increased, and the weighted average DR007 rate fell back to around 1.47% and fluctuated [67]. - The yields of treasury bond cash bonds weakened across the board. The yields of 1 - 7 - year bonds increased by 2 - 5bp, and the yields of 10 - year and 30 - year bonds increased by 5bp and 6bp to 1.78% and 2.03% respectively [67]. - The yield spread between Chinese and US 10 - year treasury bonds widened, and the spread between 30 - year treasury bonds widened slightly [71]. - **Open Market Operations**: The central bank conducted 219.7 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations in the open market this week, with 93.18 billion yuan in reverse repurchase maturities, resulting in a net injection of 126.52 billion yuan [74]. - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, the total bond issuance was 196.8063 billion yuan, the total repayment was 148.1147 billion yuan, and the net financing was 48.6917 billion yuan [77]. - **Market Sentiment** - The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.1321, with a cumulative depreciation of 50 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB narrowed [82]. - The yield of the 10 - year US treasury bond strengthened slightly, and the VIX index rose slightly [87]. - The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond in China increased significantly, and the A - share risk premium decreased slightly [90]. 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic**: In July, the economic recovery slowed down, with marginal weakening on both the supply and demand sides. With the introduction of new policies in August, future economic data may pick up [93]. - **Overseas**: The US economic data has fluctuated recently, and the Fed is divided on the issue of interest rate cuts. The market is closely watching the speech of the Fed Chairman at the Jackson Hole meeting [93]. - **Strategy**: It is expected that the treasury bond futures market will show a volatile and bearish pattern, and there are currently no trend - based long - buying opportunities [94].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper market is expected to be supported by a stable supply - demand situation and positive expectations. The fundamentals show a slight increase in supply, stable but improving demand, and industry inventory remaining in the medium - low range. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with light positions, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Performance**: The weekly line of the Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated, with a weekly increase or decrease of - 0.47% and an amplitude of 1.02%. The closing price of the main contract was 78,960 yuan/ton [6]. - **International Situation**: Most Fed officials remain cautious about interest rate cuts. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Composite PMI in August reached 55.4, a new high in 8 months, leading traders to reduce bets on two Fed rate cuts this year [6]. - **Domestic Situation**: A 500 - billion - yuan "quasi - fiscal" tool is to be launched, targeting emerging industries and infrastructure [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The TC spot index of copper concentrates has rebounded but is still in the negative range. The supply of copper concentrates at ports is decreasing, and domestic smelters' demand is rising, with a possible slight increase in domestic refined copper supply. Due to the off - season, downstream consumption is weak, but demand is expected to improve as the peak season approaches [6]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market Situation - **Contract and Spot Prices**: As of August 22, 2025, the basis of the Shanghai copper main contract was 140 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton. The main contract price was 78,690 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 370 yuan/ton, and the position was 120,902 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 31,655 lots. The spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 78,830 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 270 yuan/ton [11][17]. - **Cross - Period and Premium**: The cross - period quotation of the Shanghai copper main contract was 60 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 60 yuan/ton. The CIF average premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 57 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5 US dollars/ton. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was a net short of - 1,913 lots, a decrease of 7,493 lots from last week [17][23]. - **Options and Volatility**: As of August 22, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the Shanghai copper main at - the - money option contract fell to around the 25th percentile of historical volatility. The put - call ratio of Shanghai copper option positions was 0.8706, a week - on - week change of 0.0907 [28]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream Situation - **Prices and Fees**: The copper concentrate quotation in the main domestic mining area (Jiangxi) was 69,160 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 480 yuan/ton. The southern rough copper processing fee was 800 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton [31]. - **Imports and Spread**: As of July 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.5601 million tons, an increase of 210,500 tons from June, a growth rate of 8.96% and a year - on - year growth rate of 18.41%. The spread between refined and scrap copper (tax - included) was 1,036.84 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 6.53 yuan/ton [36]. - **Production and Inventory**: As of June 2025, the global monthly production of copper concentrates was 1.916 million tons, a decrease of 81,000 tons from May, a decline of 4.06%. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 79%, a decrease of 0.9% from May. The inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 422,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,000 tons [41]. 3.3.2 Supply - side of the Industry - **Production**: As of July 2025, the monthly production of domestic refined copper was 1.27 million tons, a decrease of 32,000 tons from June, a decline of 2.46% and a year - on - year growth rate of 15.14%. As of May 2025, the global monthly production of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2.395 million tons, an increase of 40,000 tons from April, a growth rate of 1.7%. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper was 80.1%, a decrease of 1.8% from April [46]. - **Imports**: As of July 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 335,969.236 tons, a decrease of 1,073.33 tons from June, a decline of 0.32% and a year - on - year growth rate of 12.05% [51]. - **Inventory**: As of the latest data this week, the LME total inventory increased by 750 tons week - on - week, the COMEX total inventory increased by 2,626 tons week - on - week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 412 tons week - on - week. The total social inventory was 129,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,500 tons [54]. 3.3.3 Downstream and Application - **Copper Products**: As of July 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.1694 million tons, a decrease of 45,100 tons from June, a decline of 2.04%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 480,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from June, a growth rate of 4.35% and a year - on - year growth rate of 9.09% [58]. - **Application Fields**: - **Power and Appliances**: As of June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of power and grid investment completion were 5.94% and 14.58% respectively. As of July 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of monthly production values of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs were 2.4%, 1.5%, 5%, 2.9%, and - 6.5% respectively [64]. - **Real Estate and Semiconductors**: As of July 2025, the cumulative completed real estate development investment was 5.358 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12% and a month - on - month increase of 14.84%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 29.46 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and a month - on - month increase of 23.02% [70]. 3.3.4 Overall Situation - **Global Supply - Demand**: According to ICSG statistics, as of May 2025, the global supply - demand balance was in a state of oversupply, with a monthly value of 97,000 tons. According to WBMS statistics, as of June 2025, the cumulative global supply - demand balance was 46,500 tons [76].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - situation includes ongoing flood - prevention, geopolitical tensions, and hawkish signals from the Fed. Supply - demand shows high iron - water production and increased coking coal inventory. Technically, the coking coal main contract's weekly K - line is bearish. The coking coal main contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term due to market sentiment decline caused by exchange position limits [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Key Points Summary - **Macro Aspect**: The flood - prevention situation remains severe, and there may be typhoons by the end of August. In July, China's rebar production was 1.5182 million tons, a 2.3% year - on - year decrease, and the cumulative production from January to July was 11.3387 million tons, also a 2.3% year - on - year decrease. Overseas, there are geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and the Fed's July meeting minutes released hawkish signals [7]. - **Supply - Demand Aspect**: The current iron - water production is 2.4075 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons. The coking coal inventory has shifted downstream, and the total coking coal inventory is increasing. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 23 yuan/ton [7]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the coking coal main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Due to the exchange's second position limit in a month, market sentiment has declined, and the futures price is expected to weaken in the short term. The coking coal main contract should be treated as a fluctuating operation [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Situation - **Futures Market**: As of August 22, the contract position decreased by 3,482 lots compared to the previous period, and the coke monthly spread decreased by 25 points. The number of registered coke warrants remained unchanged, and the futures ratio of rebar to coke increased by 0.01 points [9][11][18]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 21, the coke flat - price at Rizhao Port remained unchanged, and the ex - factory price of coking coal in Inner Mongolia Wuhai also remained unchanged. As of August 22, the coke basis increased by 43 points to - 184 yuan/ton. In July, the raw coal production of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 380 million tons, a 3.8% year - on - year decrease. From January to July, it was 2.78 billion tons, a 3.8% year - on - year increase. In June 2025, China's coking coal production was 4.06438 million tons, a 4.91% year - on - year decrease [26][30]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Upstream**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 23 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 74.17%, an increase of 0.04%. The daily coke output is 523,100 tons, an increase of 200 tons. The coke inventory is 394,700 tons, an increase of 16,000 tons. The total coking coal inventory is 8.2394 million tons, a decrease of 54,700 tons. The available days of coking coal are 11.8 days, a decrease of 0.09 days [32][34]. - **Downstream**: The daily average iron - water production of 247 steel mills is 2.4075 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons compared to the previous week. As of August 15, the total coke inventory decreased by 196,700 tons to 8.5733 million tons, a 13.28% year - on - year increase. The port coke inventory decreased, and the steel mill coke inventory also decreased [36][38][42]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, China exported 890,000 tons of coke and semi - coke, a 15.58% year - on - year increase. From January to July, the cumulative export was 4.4 million tons, a 21.9% year - on - year decrease. In July, China exported 9.836 million tons of steel, a 1.6% month - on - month increase. From January to July, the cumulative export was 67.983 million tons, an 11.4% year - on - year increase. In July 2025, the housing price index of second - hand houses in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 0.50% month - on - month. As of the week of August 17, the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large and medium - sized cities was 1.2773 million square meters, a 1.32% month - on - month decrease and a 12.33% year - on - year decrease. The commercial housing transaction area of first - tier cities increased by 8.00% month - on - month, and that of second - tier cities decreased by 14.70% month - on - month [44][46][49]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2380 - 2460 in the short - term [8]. - Recently, the output from restored methanol production capacity in China exceeds the loss from maintenance and production cuts, leading to a slight increase in overall output. This week, some enterprises' inventory levels climbed slightly due to fewer previous orders and a slow long - term order pickup pace. Port inventory continued to accumulate, and it is expected to keep rising next week despite the opened reverse flow space in East China ports [9]. - This week, olefin plants operated stably, with the second - phase plant of Shaanxi Yanchang Zhongmei Yulin restarted and increasing its load. Next week, the olefin plant of Sinopec Zhongyuan is expected to restart, and the industry's operating rate is expected to increase [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Strategy Suggestion**: The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 2380 and 2460 in the short - term [8]. - **Market Review**: This week, domestic port methanol inventory continued to accumulate, and prices remained weak. The reverse flow space from East China ports to Anhui market has opened, but it has limited impact on port pick - up. The inland methanol market declined weakly, with the price in Ordos North Line in the range of 2070 - 2095 yuan/ton and the receiving price in Dongying in the range of 2295 - 2325 yuan/ton [9]. - **Market Outlook**: Domestic methanol output increased slightly. Port inventory is expected to keep rising. Olefin plant operating rates are expected to increase [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - The price of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract oscillated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 0.29% [14]. - As of August 22, the MA 9 - 1 spread was - 111 [18]. - As of August 22, there were 10,666 Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts, a decrease of 302 from last week [25]. - **Spot Market** - As of August 22, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang was 2297.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27.5 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 2072.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.5 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East China and Northwest was 225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from last week [31]. - As of August 21, the CFR price of methanol at China's main ports was 264 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and China's main ports was 58 dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 dollars/ton from last week [37]. - As of August 22, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was - 107.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.5 yuan/ton from last week [41]. 3.3 Industry Chain Analysis - **Upstream** - As of August 20, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 670 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of August 21, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 2.81 dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.04 dollars/million British thermal units from last week [44]. - **Industry** - As of August 21, China's methanol output was 1,897,395 tons, an increase of 34,120 tons from last week. The plant capacity utilization rate was 83.91%, a month - on - month increase of 1.83% [47]. - As of August 20, the total methanol port inventory in China was 1.076 million tons, an increase of 54,200 tons from the previous period. The inventory of sample production enterprises was 310,800 tons, an increase of 15,200 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 5.15%. The orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 207,400 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 5.47% [52]. - In July 2025, China's methanol imports were 1.1027 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.63%. From January to July 2025, China's cumulative methanol imports were 6.48 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.66%. As of August 21, the methanol import profit was 16.4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29.37 yuan/ton from last week [55]. - **Downstream** - As of August 21, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 85.70%, a month - on - month increase of 1.45% [58]. - As of August 22, the domestic methanol - to - olefin spot profit was - 977 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from last week [62]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis No information provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rebounded with a weekly increase of about 0.11%. The international raw sugar market maintained a low - level oscillating trend, while the domestic market showed a pattern of strong domestic and weak foreign markets. Although the inventory pressure of domestic sugar is not large and the double - festival stocking expectation provides support for sugar prices, factors such as a significant increase in imports, upcoming sugar mill openings in the north, and high expected output in the new season will limit the upside space of prices. The report suggests short - selling at high prices with light positions and controlling risks. Future factors to watch include consumption and exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Analysis**: Internationally, the production prospects of major Asian sugar - producing countries are good, and the global supply is expected to be loose. However, there are concerns about the sugar content of Brazilian sugarcane in the 2025/26 season, and demand shows signs of improvement. Domestically, the profit window for out - of - quota imports is open, and the import volume in July increased significantly month - on - month, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past decade. The demand is expected to increase due to double - festival stocking. The inventory pressure is not large, but the de - stocking process has slowed down. The new season's output is expected to be at a high level in the past four years [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - sell at high prices with light positions and control risks [6]. - **Future Concerns**: Consumption, and exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: The price of ICE US sugar declined this week, with a weekly drop of about 0.67%. As of August 12, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of ICE No. 11 sugar increased by 1.41% month - on - month, the non - commercial short positions decreased by 2.09% month - on - month, and the non - commercial net positions increased by 10.99% month - on - month. The net positions of the top 20 holders of Zhengzhou sugar futures were - 14,220 lots, and the Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts were 15,555 lots [9][18]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 15, 2025, the international spot price of raw sugar was 16.94 cents per pound, a month - on - month decrease of 1.45%. As of August 22, the sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 6,030 yuan per ton, and the spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,855 yuan per ton. As of August 18, 2025, the estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) was 5,706 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.95%; the in - quota price was 4,491 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.95%. The estimated import processing price of Thai sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) was 5,729 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.95%; the in - quota price was 4,509 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.92%. As of August 18, the in - quota profit of imported Brazilian sugar was 1,364 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.66%; the out - of - quota profit was 149 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 16.41%. The in - quota profit of imported Thai sugar was 1,346 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%; the out - of - quota profit was 126 yuan per ton [12][22][25]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side**: The 2024/25 sugar - making season ended in late May 2025, with a national sugar production of 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03%. As of May 30, 2025, the industrial inventory was 3.0483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 322,100 tons. In July, China's sugar imports were 740,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 320,000 tons (76.2%) and a year - on - year increase of 76.4%. From January to July, sugar imports were 1.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4% [34][38][42]. - **Demand Side**: As of May 31, 2025, the cumulative national sugar sales volume was 8.1138 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.00%, and the sales rate was 72.69%, a month - on - month increase of 11.45%. As of July 31, 2025, the monthly output of refined sugar was 410,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.66%, and the monthly output of soft drinks was 17.9663 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.51% [46][51]. 3.4 Options and Stock - Futures Correlation Market - **Options Market**: Information on the implied volatility of at - the - money options for sugar this week was presented, but no specific data was given [52]. - **Stock Market**: Information on the price - to - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry was presented, but no specific data was given [57].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube futures declined, with a weekly drop of 2.69%. The market recognizes the expected reduction in the output of new - season Xinjiang grey jujubes, but there are differences in output estimates. After the market digests the bullish factors of the expected output reduction, short - term funds flow out, the trading volume of the main contract decreases, and the driving force for the market is insufficient. However, supported by the expected reduction in new - season output, it is expected to show a high - level volatile trend. The future focus will be on the actual output and the opening purchase price. It is recommended to wait and see for now [8][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube futures declined this week, with a weekly drop of 2.69% [8][11]. - **Market Outlook**: As of the 34th week, the physical inventory of jujubes in 36 sample points was 9,519 tons, a decrease of 167 tons from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 1.72%, and a year - on - year increase of 79.20%. The output of jujubes in 2024 increased year - on - year, resulting in higher old - crop inventory than the same period last year. It is expected that the market will show a high - level volatile trend, and the support level of the jujube 2601 contract is around 11,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Future Trading Alerts**: Pay attention to weather impacts and the consumer side [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube futures declined this week, with a weekly drop of 2.69% [8][11]. - **Futures Positions**: As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in jujube futures was - 12,617 lots [13]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: As of this week, the number of Zhengzhou jujube warehouse receipts was 9,891 [16]. - **Futures Spread**: As of this week, the spread between the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange jujube futures 2605 contract and the 2601 contract was 190 yuan/ton [20]. - **Basis**: As of this week, the basis between the spot price of Hebei grey jujubes and the main contract of jujube futures was - 805 yuan/ton [23]. - **New - Season Purchase Price**: As of August 22, 2025, the purchase price of general - grade jujubes in Aksu was 4.8 yuan/kg, in Alar was 5.2 yuan/kg, and in Kashgar was 6 yuan/kg [26]. - **First - Grade Spot Price**: As of August 22, 2025, the wholesale price of first - grade grey jujubes in Cangzhou, Hebei was 4.80 yuan/jin, and in Henan was 4.75 yuan/jin [29]. - **Special - Grade Spot Price**: As of August 22, 2025, the wholesale price of special - grade grey jujubes in Cangzhou, Hebei was 10.43 yuan/kg, and in Henan was 10.5 yuan/kg [33]. 3.3 Industry Chain - **Supply Side - Inventory**: As of this week, the physical inventory of jujubes in 36 sample points was 9,519 tons, a decrease of 167 tons from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 1.72%, and a year - on - year increase of 79.20% [38]. - **Supply Side - Output**: The crop is growing well, and it is expected that the jujube output in the 2024/25 season will recover [43]. - **Demand Side - Exports**: In July 2025, China's jujube export volume was 1,784,164 kg, the export value was 30,320,227 yuan, the export average price was 16,994.08 yuan/ton. The export volume increased by 1.08% month - on - month and decreased by 24.95% year - on - year. From January to July, the cumulative export volume was 18,899,838 kg, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 14.05% [45]. - **Demand Side - BOCE Trading**: This week, the ordering volume of BOCE Xinjiang Jujube Hao brand was not traded [49]. 3.4 Options Market and Futures - Stock Correlation - **Options Market**: The report mentions the implied volatility of at - the - money jujube options this week but does not provide specific data [51]. - **Stock Market - Haoxiangni**: The report shows the price - to - earnings ratio chart of Haoxiangni but does not provide specific analysis [53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the soda ash futures rose 4.95% with a volatile trend of first falling and then rising, while the glass futures fell 3.14% showing an overall downward trend [6]. - For soda ash, the domestic production rate and output increased this week. Although the profit margin slightly rebounded, the maintenance was still lower than expected. The profit rebound is not sustainable, and the overall output is expected to decline. The market supply is currently loose, and the market will likely follow the guidance of the anti - involution meeting, with the natural soda ash method gradually replacing backward production capacity. The cold - repair number of glass production lines remained unchanged, and the demand for soda ash from the glass industry is at a low level. The inventory of domestic soda ash enterprises increased due to insufficient demand, and the de - stocking process will be repeated. Overall, the supply of soda ash is expected to remain abundant, the demand will continue to decline, and the price will be under pressure, but there may be variables with anti - involution speculation [6]. - For glass, the cold - repair number of production lines remained unchanged, and the output is at a low level. The profit is starting to decline due to the impact of high - temperature weather on real - estate construction demand. The current real - estate situation is not optimistic, and the downstream deep - processing orders have slightly increased, with procurement mainly for rigid demand. The overall inventory has started to rise slightly, but the de - stocking trend remains. A restocking market is expected to start next week. The marginal growth of the automobile industry has weakened. If there is news from the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting, the logic of interest - rate cuts may continue to be traded [6]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to trade the SA2601 contract in the range of 1300 - 1390, with a stop - loss range of 1280 - 1420, and operate the FG2601 contract in the range of 1130 - 1200, with a stop - loss range of 1100 - 1230 [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: Soda ash futures rose 4.95% with a first - down - then - up trend. In the first half of the week, it was weak due to poor fundamentals, and the spot price drove the futures price down. In the second half, it was affected by the speculation of production - capacity limitation. Glass futures fell 3.14% with an overall downward trend. After switching the main contract in the first half of the week, the price was overestimated and then dropped significantly due to insufficient real - estate demand [6]. - **Market Outlook**: For soda ash, supply is abundant and demand is falling, and the price will be under pressure but may change with anti - involution speculation. For glass, the supply is at a low level, the real - estate situation is not good, and a restocking market is expected next week [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Trade SA2601 in the 1300 - 1390 range and FG2601 in the 1130 - 1200 range, with corresponding stop - loss ranges [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices**: Both soda ash and glass futures prices fell this week [8]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot price of soda ash decreased, and the basis strengthened, but the rebound was not obvious. The spot price of glass weakened, and the basis strengthened and is expected to continue to do so. The soda ash - glass price spread weakened this week and is expected to strengthen next week [13][17][21]. - **Specific Data**: As of August 21, 2025, the mainstream price of heavy - soda ash in the Shahe market was 1207.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 77.5 yuan/ton week - on - week; the soda ash basis was - 98.5 yuan/ton. The price of 5.0mm large - plate glass in the Shahe market was 1068 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the glass basis was - 88 yuan/ton. As of August 14, 2025, the glass - soda ash price spread was 150 yuan/ton [15][19][23]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Analysis - **Production Capacity and Output**: The domestic soda ash production rate and output increased this week. As of August 21, 2025, the national soda ash production rate was 88.75%, a 1.62% increase week - on - week, and the national weekly soda ash output was 77.14 tons, a 1.32% increase week - on - week. The cold - repair number of glass production lines remained unchanged, and the output was at a low level [24][28][35]. - **Profit Situation**: The profit of domestic soda ash enterprises rebounded this week due to cost reduction, while the profit of glass enterprises decreased due to the decline in spot prices. The theoretical profit of China's dual - tonnage soda ash by the joint - alkali process was 18 yuan/ton, a 11 yuan/ton increase week - on - week, and the theoretical cost decreased by 60 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of ammonia - soda ash method was - 13 yuan/ton, a 5 yuan/ton increase week - on - week, and the theoretical cost decreased by 4 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 192.84 yuan/ton, a 12.53% decrease; using coal - gas as fuel was 101.55 yuan/ton, a 10.26% increase; using petroleum coke as fuel was 35.52 yuan/ton, a 59.5% decrease [30][33]. - **Inventory Situation**: The inventory of domestic soda ash enterprises increased due to increased production, and the inventory of glass enterprises increased due to poor real - estate demand. As of August 21, 2025, the inventory of soda ash enterprises was 191.08 tons, a 0.89% increase week - on - week, and the total glass inventory was 63.606 million heavy boxes, a 0.28% increase week - on - week [46][50]. - **Downstream Demand**: The deep - processing orders for glass increased slightly, but the demand is still low. As of August 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.65 days [52][54].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, most prices of the container shipping index (European Line) futures declined. The main contract EC2510 closed down 4.66%, and the far - month contracts declined between 3 - 5%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index was 2180.17, down 55.31 points from last week, a 2.5% month - on - month decrease, and the spot indicator continued to decline [6][46]. - In the context of the lack of significant improvement in demand, over - capacity remains a huge pressure on the supply side in the future, limiting the recovery space of shipping prosperity. Whether the price increase announced by leading shipping companies in December can be implemented depends on the cargo volume in the fourth quarter, but the current economic data of the eurozone is not optimistic overall. With high tariff uncertainty, the market is generally waiting and watching. Freight and industry profitability are expected to be under pressure, and the traditional peak season this year may show the characteristic of "not prosperous in the peak season", with freight rates expected to fluctuate weakly [7][47]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The prices of the main contract of the container shipping index (European Line) futures declined this week. Specifically, EC2508 rose 2.20%, EC2510 fell 4.66%, EC2512 fell 5.04%, EC2602 fell 4.22%, EC2604 fell 5.25%, and EC2606 fell 3.81%. The SCFIS index fell 2.5% [9]. - The trading volume and open interest of the EC2510 contract declined collectively [18]. 2. News Review and Analysis - The US added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list with a 50% tax rate, which is bearish for the market [21]. - The EU and the US reached a new trade agreement. The US will impose a 15% tariff on most EU goods, while the EU will cancel tariffs on US industrial products and purchase US energy and AI chips, which is bullish for the market [21]. - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that most policymakers supported not cutting interest rates in July. There were differences among Fed officials regarding inflation, employment, and the impact of tariffs on inflation, which is neutral for the market [21]. - The central bank proposed to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, which is neutral for the market [21]. 3. Weekly Market Data - The basis and spread of the container shipping index (European Line) futures contracts converged this week [28]. - The export container freight rate index declined this week [32]. - Container shipping capacity declined in the short term. The BDI and BPI rebounded due to geopolitical factors [36]. - The charter price of Panamax ships rebounded rapidly this week. The spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar fluctuated mainly [40]. 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The container shipping index (European Line) futures prices mostly declined this week. Spot indicators continued to decline. Leading shipping companies started a "price war", and the market expected to turn cold. Trump's plan to impose additional tariffs increased uncertainty in global trade. The Fed's attitude towards interest rates and the eurozone's economic situation also had an impact on the market [46]. - Due to over - capacity and high tariff uncertainty, freight rates are expected to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to factors such as the actual follow - up increase of shipping companies' cabin opening prices in December, the frequency of Houthi attacks, and trade war - related information [47].