山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年06月18日16时59分 投资咨询系列报告 今日贵金属金弱银强，沪金主力收跌0.21%，沪银主力收涨2.35%。①核心逻辑，短期以色列和伊朗冲突升级，经济衰退地缘异动 风险仍存；美国经济滞涨风险增加，美联储对降息维持谨慎态度。②避险属性方面，中东地缘异动，伊朗敦促特朗普迫使以色列停 战。中美元首通话，磋商进展顺利，达成贸易框架。③货币属性方面，最新美国5月零售销售和制造业产出疲软。美国6月消费者 信心出现六个月来首次好转，但家庭仍对经济发展轨迹感到担忧。美国最新通胀数据仍保持温和。目前市场预期美联储下次降息至 9月，预期25年总降息空间跌至50基点左右。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏弱；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数反弹承压，人民币 升值利空国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期震荡偏多金弱银强，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。⑥凌晨有美联储决议，预期维持利率不 变，新点阵图或对后期提供指引，建议投资者提前做好风险管理。 策略：稳健者观望，激进者高抛低吸。建议做好仓位管理，严格止损止盈。 表1 黄金相关数据： | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年06月18日08时22分 报告导读： 投资咨询系列报告 消息面上，以伊冲突继续，目前尚未看到缓和的迹象，油价大幅反弹后回落。目前钢厂盈利率尚可，上周 247 家钢厂铁水产量超过 241.6 万吨，环 比下降 0.2 万吨，铁水明显高于去年同期水平。随着下游消费高峰期结束以及钢厂的限产 ，预计近期铁水产量将进一步回落。供应端，全球发运处 于相对高位且在沿着季节性回升趋势不断上升 。当前港口库存降速趋缓，且贸易矿库存比例偏高，对期价有明显的压力。技术面上，期价目前仍处 于大区间震荡格局 操作建议： 维持观望，激进的投资者可逢低轻仓做多，以震荡思路对待 | 表2：铁矿石相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | 较上周 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年06月17日16时57分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属金弱银强，沪金主力收跌1.46%，沪银主力收涨0.45%。①核心逻辑，短期以色列和伊朗冲突升级预期缓和，经济衰退 地缘异动风险仍存；美国经济滞涨风险增加，美联储对降息维持谨慎态度。②避险属性方面，中东地缘异动，伊朗敦促特朗普迫使 以色列停战。中美元首通话，磋商进展顺利，达成贸易框架。③货币属性方面，由于中美贸易紧张局势有所缓解，美国6月消费者 信心出现六个月来首次好转，但家庭仍对经济发展轨迹感到担忧。美国最新通胀数据仍保持温和。目前市场预期美联储下次降息至 9月，预期25年总降息空间跌至50基点左右。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏弱；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数反弹承压，人民币 升值利空国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期震荡偏多金弱银强，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 | 策略：稳健者观望，激进者高抛低吸。建议做好仓位管理，严格止损止盈。 | | --- | | 表1 黄金相关数据： | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 | | | --- | --- | - ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年06月17日08时24分 报告导读： 以伊冲突在继续，但有消息称，伊朗希望与美以展开对话，寻求结束敌对状态，原油价格大幅拉升后回落。昨日国家统计局公布的数据显示，各线 房价环比均回落，显示目前的房地产市场仍处于筑底的过程中 。供需方面，我的钢铁公布的数据显示，上周螺纹产量有所回落，厂库下降，社库继 续回落，总库存下降，表观需求环比继续回落，数据显示目前处于供需双弱的状态 。从需求的季节性规律看，表观需求高峰期已过，随着雨季和高 温天气的到来，需求将进一步走弱，且库存将会小幅回升。整体来看，目前市场交易的是弱现实和弱预期 ，但价格也有可能充分地反映了各方面的 利空。从技术上看，期价探底后回升，出现企稳信号 操作建议： 多单轻仓持有，如果后市期价有效跌破近期低点，多单可及时止损离场。 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期现货价格 | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 ...

一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年06月16日08时20分 山金期货黑色板块日报 报告导读： 消息面上，以色列袭击伊朗，原油价格大幅拉升，带动全球商品价格回升，黑色商品也受到影响。供需方面，我的钢铁公布的数据显示，上周螺纹 产量有所回落，厂库下降，社库继续回落，总库存下降，表观需求环比继续回落，数据显示目前处于供需双弱的状态 。从需求的季节性规律看，表 观需求高峰期已过，随着雨季和高温天气的到来，需求将进一步走弱，且库存将会小幅回升。整体来看，目前市场交易的是弱现实和弱预期 ，但价 格也有可能充分的反映了各方面的利空 。从技术上看，期价探底后回升，出现企稳信号 操作建议： 轻仓做多，如果后市期价有效跌破近期低点 ，多单可及时止损离场。 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 2969 | 1 | 0.03% | -6 | -0.20% | | 期现货价格 | 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年06月13日08时12分 报告导读： 消息面上，中美两国经贸谈判达成框架，但分歧依然存在。我的钢铁公布的数据显示，本周螺纹产量有所回落，厂库下降，社库继续回落，总库存 下降，表观需求环比继续回落，数据显示目前处于供需双弱的状态 。从需求的季节性规律看，表观需求高峰期已过，随着雨季和高温天气的到来， 需求将进一步走弱，且库存将会小幅回升。整体来看，目前市场交易的是弱现实和弱预期 。从技术上看，期价短暂反弹后回落，大概率后市仍有可 能二次探底 操作建议： 维持观望。待二次探底后逢低做多 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 2968 | -23 | -0.77% | 9 | 0.30% | | 期现货价格 | 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3080 | -28 | -0.90% | 3 | 0.10% | | | 螺纹 ...

Report Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The steel market is gradually shifting from strong reality to weak reality, with weak expectations remaining unchanged. The iron ore market is affected by factors such as supply and demand and inventory, and the price is in a large - range oscillation pattern [2][4] Section Summaries 1. Thread Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Information**: Sino - US economic and trade negotiations reached a framework, briefly boosting market confidence. The real estate is in the bottom - building process, and the demand for steel is still marginally weakening [2] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Last week's data showed a decline in production, factory inventory, and social inventory, and a decrease in apparent demand. The peak season of apparent demand has passed, and demand will weaken further with the arrival of rainy seasons and high - temperature weather. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand [2] - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price has a strong rebound and has stood above the 10 - day moving average for three consecutive days, indicating that it will enter a low - level oscillation and may have a second bottom - probing [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude. Buy at low prices after the second bottom - probing [2] - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: The closing price of the thread steel main contract is 2991 yuan/ton, up 0.57% from the previous day and last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3108 yuan/ton, up 0.62% from the previous day and 0.36% from last week [2] - **Production**: The national building materials steel mill's thread steel production is 218.46 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.13%; the hot - rolled coil production is 328.75 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.88% [2] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of five major varieties is 935.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.36%; the thread steel social inventory is 385.62 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.27%; the hot - rolled coil social inventory is 264.29 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.52% [2] 2. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Sino - US economic and trade negotiations reached a framework, reducing uncertainties and briefly boosting market confidence [4] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The steel mill's profitability is acceptable, but with the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel mill production restrictions, the molten iron output is expected to decline further. The global iron ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The port inventory decline has slowed down, and the proportion of trade ore inventory is relatively high, putting pressure on the futures price [4] - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price is in a large - range oscillation pattern, with a bottom and a ceiling. Attention should be paid to the future breakthrough direction [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and avoid chasing up or selling down [4] - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 707 yuan/dry ton, up 1.22% from the previous day and 0.35% from last week [4] - **Supply**: Australian iron ore shipments are 1872.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.06%; Brazilian iron ore shipments are 641.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 23.35% [4] - **Inventory**: The total port inventory is 13826.69 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.29%; the port trade ore inventory is 9385.44 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.55% [4] 3. Industry News - On June 11, the blast furnace operating rate of 242 steel mills was 88.15%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 89.51%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.05 percentage points; the average daily molten iron output of sample steel mills was 241.49 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.14 tons [6] - According to Buguwang, the national building materials social inventory is 552.24 tons, an increase of 1.77 tons from last week, up 0.32%; the factory inventory is 313.18 tons, a decrease of 12.97 tons from last week, down 3.98%; the production is 413.77 tons, a decrease of 8.16 tons from last week, down 1.93% [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a pattern of strong gold and weak silver, with the main contract of Shanghai Gold rising 0.56% and the main contract of Shanghai Silver falling 0.28% [1]. - In the short - term, there are still risks of repeated Trump trade wars, economic recession, and geopolitical changes; the risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and the Fed maintains a cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts [1]. - In terms of the safe - haven attribute, the leaders of China and the US had a phone call, and the Sino - US trade talks are expected to focus on rare earths and export controls. The second - day consultation between the two countries went smoothly, and a trade framework was reached [1]. - In terms of the monetary attribute, the anxiety of US people about the future inflation path in May has eased. The market expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in September, and the total expected interest rate cut space in 2025 has dropped to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating weakly [1]. - In terms of the commodity attribute, the rebound of the CRB commodity index is under pressure, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1]. - It is expected that precious metals will oscillate with a slight upward trend in the short - term, oscillate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC net long positions in silver and iShare Silver ETF have increased their positions again. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has increased slightly recently [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold 3.1.1 Strategy - For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see; for aggressive investors, it is recommended to sell high and buy low. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are suggested [2]. 3.1.2 Gold - related Data - International prices: Comex gold main contract closed at $3344.80 per ounce, down $1.90 (-0.06%) from the previous day and down $32.10 (-0.95%) from last week; London gold closed at $3337.70 per ounce, up $18.40 (0.55%) from the previous day and up $2.95 (0.09%) from last week [2]. - Domestic prices: Shanghai Gold main contract closed at 777.54 yuan per gram, up 2.48 yuan (0.32%) from the previous day and down 4.88 yuan (-0.62%) from last week; Gold T + D closed at 774.54 yuan per gram, up 1.72 yuan (0.22%) from the previous day and down 5.14 yuan (-0.66%) from last week [2]. - Other data: such as basis, spreads, ratios, positions, inventories, etc., have different changes compared with the previous day or last week [2]. 3.1.3 Top 10 Net Positions of Shanghai Gold by SHFE Members - The net long positions of the top 5, 10, and 20 members increased, while the net short positions decreased [3]. 3.2 Silver 3.2.1 Strategy - For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see; for aggressive investors, it is recommended to sell high and buy low. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are suggested [6]. 3.2.2 Silver - related Data - International prices: Comex silver main contract closed at $36.66 per ounce, down $0.25 (-0.68%) from the previous day and up $1.98 (5.71%) from last week; London silver closed at $36.76 per ounce, up $0.51 (1.41%) from the previous day and up $2.51 (7.33%) from last week [6]. - Domestic prices: Shanghai Silver main contract closed at 8902 yuan per kilogram, up 15 yuan (0.17%) from the previous day and up 439 yuan (5.19%) from last week; Silver T + D closed at 8882 yuan per kilogram, unchanged from the previous day and up 441 yuan (5.22%) from last week [6]. - Other data: such as basis, spreads, positions, inventories, etc., have different changes compared with the previous day or last week [6]. 3.2.3 Top 10 Net Positions of Shanghai Silver by SHFE Members - The net long positions of the top 5, 10, and 20 members had different changes, and the net short positions decreased [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - Federal Reserve: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, the discount rate, and the reserve balance rate (IORB) all decreased by 0.25 percentage points; the Fed's total assets were $67236.32 billion, down $5.14 billion (-0.00%) [8]. - Other economic indicators: M2 increased by 0.83 percentage points year - on - year; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield, the US dollar index, the US Treasury yield spread, etc., all had different changes [8][10]. - Central bank gold reserves: China's gold reserves were 2296.37 tons, up 4.04 tons (0.18%); the US had 8133.46 tons, unchanged; the world had 36250.15 tons, unchanged [10][12]. - Other indicators: such as inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, trade, etc., all had different changes [10]. - Fed's latest interest rate expectations: The probability of different interest rate ranges at different meeting dates is provided [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of precious metals is expected to be volatile and bullish, with a high - level oscillation in the medium - term and a step - up movement in the long - term. The price trend of gold serves as an anchor for the price of silver. [1][5] - For both gold and silver, the recommended strategy is for conservative investors to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is advised to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [2][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, the precious metals market showed a pattern of weak gold and strong silver. The main contract of Shanghai Gold Futures closed down 0.03%, while the main contract of Shanghai Silver Futures closed up 0.62%. [1] - **Core Logic**: In the short term, there are still risks of repeated Trump - era trade wars, economic recession, and geopolitical fluctuations. The risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, and the Fed maintains a cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts. [1] - **Attributes Analysis** - **Safe - haven Attribute**: A phone call between Chinese and US leaders is expected to focus on rare earths and export controls in Sino - US trade talks. [1] - **Monetary Attribute**: The New York Fed's consumer expectations survey shows that in May, US public anxiety about the future inflation path eased. The one - year inflation expectation of respondents was 3.2% (down from 3.6% in April). The US added 139,000 non - farm payrolls in May, higher than the market expectation of 130,000. Employment growth continued to slow under the influence of trade policy uncertainties, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2% for the third consecutive month. The market currently expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in September, and the expected total rate - cut space in 2025 has dropped to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating weakly. [1] - **Commodity Attribute**: The rebound of the CRB commodity index is under pressure, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. [1] - **Data Summary**: Various data such as international and domestic prices, basis and spreads, positions, inventories, CFTC managed fund net positions, and gold ETFs are presented, showing different changes compared to the previous day and the previous week. For example, the Comex gold main contract closed at $3346.70 per ounce, up $15.70 (0.47%) from the previous day and down $59.70 (-1.75%) from the previous week. [2] Silver - **Influencing Factors**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have increased their positions again. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has increased slightly. [5] - **Data Summary**: Similar to gold, data on international and domestic prices, basis and spreads, positions, inventories, CFTC managed fund net positions, and silver ETFs are provided. For instance, the Comex silver main contract closed at $36.91 per ounce, up $0.77 (2.15%) from the previous day and up $1.98 (5.65%) from the previous week. [6] Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, the discount rate, and the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) are all 4.50%, 4.50%, and 4.40% respectively, with a decrease of 0.25 percentage points compared to the previous value. The Fed's total assets are $6723.632 billion, down $514 million (-0.00%) from the previous day. [8] - **Other Economic Indicators**: Include M2 growth rate, ten - year US Treasury real yield, US dollar index, US Treasury yield spreads, inflation indicators (CPI, PCE), economic growth indicators (GDP), unemployment rate, employment data, real estate market data, consumption data, industrial data, trade data, and central bank gold reserves. For example, the CPI (year - on - year) is 2.30%, down 0.10 percentage points; the GDP (annualized year - on - year) is 2.00%, down 0.90 percentage points. [9][10][12] - **Fed Interest Rate Expectations**: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of different interest rate ranges at various Fed meetings from June 2025 to December 2026 is presented. For example, at the June 18, 2025 meeting, the probability of the federal funds rate being in the 425 - 450 range is 99.9%. [13]

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年06月09日16时39分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属金弱银强，沪金主力收跌1.02%，沪银主力收涨1.77%。①核心逻辑，短期特朗普贸易战反复，经济衰退地缘异动风险 仍存；美国经济滞涨风险增加，美联储对降息维持谨慎态度。②避险属性方面，中美元首通话，中美贸易会谈将于周一在伦敦举行 。③货币属性方面，美国劳工部统计局发布数据显示，5月非农就业人口增加13.9万（前值下修至14.7万），高于市场预期的13万 人，在贸易政策不确定性影响下就业增长持续放缓，失业率连续第三个月维持在4.2%，这或许将为美联储推迟降息提供政策空间 。目前市场预期美联储下次降息至9月，预期25年总降息空间跌至50基点左右。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏弱；④商品属性方 面，CRB商品指数反弹承压，人民币升值利空国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期金弱银强，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 投资咨询系列报告 | 策略：稳健者观望，激进者高抛低吸。建议做好仓位管理，严格止损止盈。 | | --- | | 表1 黄金相关数据： | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | ...