Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper, zinc, aluminum, and nickel are the main focus of the report. Copper and zinc may experience short - term wide - range fluctuations; aluminum may oscillate in the short term; nickel may show a slightly stronger oscillating trend in the short term [1]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Metal Market Analysis - **Copper**: Night - time copper prices closed higher. With low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices, smelting output is under pressure. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and positive, but there are both positive and negative factors, so copper prices may fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to US tariff progress, and changes in the US dollar, copper smelting, and home appliance production [1]. - **Zinc**: Night - time zinc prices closed higher. Concentrate processing fees have been rising recently. The market expects an obvious improvement in concentrate supply this year, and smelting supply may recover. Short - term zinc prices may fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to US tariff progress, and changes in the US dollar, zinc smelting, and home appliance production [1]. - **Aluminum**: The main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed up 0.25% at night. Trump's tariff attitude is wavering, and the US inflation expectation is strong. There were disturbances in Guinea's bauxite supply, but there may be a turnaround. The operating rate of the aluminum processing sector has declined, and the demand for electrolytic aluminum is weakening in the short term, so Shanghai aluminum may oscillate [1]. - **Nickel**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel closed up 0.25% at night. The supply of nickel ore in Indonesia is still tight, leading to rising prices. The new Indonesian tariff policy may increase local nickel product prices. Precursor manufacturers have sufficient raw material inventories, and nickel salt enterprises have production - cut expectations. Nickel prices may follow the non - ferrous metal sector and show a slightly stronger oscillating trend in the short term [1]. Market Data | Metal | Domestic Previous - day Futures Closing Price (CNY/ton) | Domestic Basis (CNY/ton) | Previous - day LME 3 - month Futures Closing Price (USD/ton) | LME Spot Premium/Discount (CASH - 3M) (USD/ton) | LME Inventory (ton) | LME Inventory Daily Change (ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 77,940 | 215 | 9,639 | 52.31 | 143,850 | - 4,600 | | Aluminum | 19,990 | 110 | 2,471 | - 3.59 | 367,875 | - 2,400 | | Zinc | 22,570 | 135 | 2,712 | - 25.19 | 137,350 | - 800 | | Nickel | 121,150 | - 1,640 | 15,475 | - 200.58 | 201,462 | 1,152 | | Lead | 16,530 | - 165 | 1,986 | - 19.72 | 283,150 | - 1,000 | | Tin | 249,560 | 150 | 31,450 | - 79.00 | 2,605 | 0 | [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of Treasury bond futures generally rose in the previous trading day, with the T2509 contract rising 0%. The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of Treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends, and key - term Treasury bond yields in China generally declined. Overseas, yields of key - term Treasury bonds in the US, Germany, and Japan increased. The central bank conducted 4545 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 3755 billion yuan. The market funds remained relatively stable, but there may be some disturbances at the beginning of June. The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, which supports the price of Treasury bond futures. Attention should be paid to the progress of trade negotiations and changes in the market funds [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Performance**: The prices of Treasury bond futures generally rose. For example, TS2509 rose 0.050 to 102.396, with a 0.05% increase; TF2509 rose 0.150 to 106.020, with a 0.14% increase [2]. - **Positions and Trading Volume**: The positions of some contracts increased, such as T2509 with an increase of 2562, while TF2509 decreased by 973. Trading volumes also varied among contracts [2]. - **Cross - period Spreads**: Cross - period spreads changed, for example, the cross - period spread of T2509 decreased from 0.0250 to 0.005 [2]. - **IRR**: The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of Treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities [2]. Short - term Market Interest Rates - **Rate Changes**: SHIBOR7 - day interest rate rose 1.5bp, DR007 rate fell 4.3bp, and GC007 rate fell 7.2bp [2]. Spot Market - **Yield Changes**: Key - term Treasury bond yields in China generally declined. For example, the 10Y Treasury bond yield declined 1.9bp to 1.68%, and the 10 - 2Y yield spread was 16.44bp [2]. Overseas Market - **Yield Changes**: The US 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 5bp, the German 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 2bp, and the Japanese 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 0.5bp [2]. Macro News - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 4545 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on June 3, with a net withdrawal of 3755 billion yuan. In May, the central bank carried out SLF operations of 14.01 billion yuan, and policy banks net - repaid 2700 billion yuan of PSL [3]. - **Economic Data**: The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was 48.3, down 2.1 percentage points from the previous month. The OECD lowered the growth forecasts for the US and the global economy. The US 2025 growth forecast was cut from 2.2% to 1.6%, and the global growth forecast for 2025 was lowered to 2.9% [3]. - **International Relations**: The US increased tariffs on imported steel, aluminum and their derivatives from 25% to 50%, starting from June 4, 2025. The US also made unfounded accusations against China, and China firmly opposed these actions [3]. Comment and Strategy - **Market Situation**: The market funds remained relatively stable, but there may be some disturbances at the beginning of June due to a large number of maturing certificates of deposit. The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, which supports the price of Treasury bond futures. Attention should be paid to the progress of trade negotiations and changes in the market funds [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The protein meal market is expected to continue its volatile trend. Domestic oil mills' high operation and high - pressure production will accelerate the accumulation of soybean meal inventory. With uncertainties in US soybean demand and concerns about China - US trade tariffs, the short - term trend will remain volatile [2] - The oil market is predicted to maintain a volatile pattern. The supply of domestic soy - based products will gradually recover, and the inventory of soybean oil is expected to increase. The palm oil in Southeast Asia is in the production - increasing season with inventory accumulation. Although the recent export increase is favorable, the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern persists, and the inventory accumulation trend is likely to continue [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: For domestic futures, the previous day's closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and peanut increased, while those of rapeseed oil, soybean meal, and rapeseed meal decreased. The price changes were 0.71%, 1.69%, 0.29%, - 3.15%, - 1.11%, and - 3.04% respectively [1] - **Futures Spreads and Ratios**: Some spreads and ratios such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, M - RM09, etc. have changed compared to the previous values [1] International Futures Market - BMD palm oil decreased by 1.02%, CBOT soybeans increased by 0.63%, CBOT US soybean oil increased by 1.25%, and CBOT US soybean meal decreased by - 0.07% [1] Domestic Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of some products like Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil, and Zhangjiagang 24° palm oil increased, while those of rapeseed oil, soybean meal, and rapeseed meal decreased [1] - **Spot Spreads**: The spot spreads between some products such as Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil, and Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil have changed [1] Import and Crushing Profit - The import and crushing profits of different products such as Malaysian palm oil, US Gulf soybeans, etc. have different values and changes compared to the previous values [1] Industry Information - Domestic soybean supply is sufficient. By the end of May, the commercial inventory of soybeans in major oil mills had reached nearly 7 million tons. It is expected that 12 million tons of imported soybeans will arrive in June, 9.5 million tons in July, and 8.5 million tons in August [2] - Malaysian palm oil exports from May 1 - 31 increased by 13.21% compared to the same period last month. Indian edible oil imports in May increased by 37% month - on - month, reaching 1.18 million tons, and palm oil imports increased by 87% month - on - month, reaching 600,000 tons [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The EC of container shipping to Europe rebounded during the session, with the 08 contract closing at 2100.2 points, a slight increase of 0.76%. CMA CGM took the lead in announcing an increase in the peak - season surcharge (PSS) for the Asia - Europe route, indicating the shipping companies' intention to raise and support prices during the traditional peak season, so there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the peak season [1]. - MSC has announced a price increase notice for the second half of June, with the 40 - foot container quoted at $3900, higher than the current average price of about $1400 in the first half of the month. Although the full implementation probability is low, it is expected to further push up freight rates under the relatively low capacity deployment in the second and third weeks of June [1]. - The 06 contract has basically entered the delivery logic, with limited expected actual fluctuations. The 08 contract will continue to be anchored to the actual progress of the peak season on the European route, and it also prices in the freight rate decline after the peak season in August. The current market valuation is relatively neutral, and it is recommended to continue to pay attention to the low - level long - allocation opportunities after the market returns to the actual anchor [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs EC Contract Volume and Price - EC2506: The latest成交价 is 1894.1 points, with a daily increase of 3.02%. The trading volume is 5349 (a decrease of 2006 compared to the previous period), and the unilateral open interest is 10553 (a decrease of 484 compared to the previous period). The net long position of the top 20 members is - 516 [2]. - EC2508: The latest成交价 is 2100.2 points, with a daily increase of 0.76%. The trading volume is 86405 (a decrease of 16342 compared to the previous period), and the unilateral open interest is 45769 (an increase of 3945 compared to the previous period). The net long position of the top 20 members is - 489 [2]. - EC2510: The latest成交价 is 1339 points, with a daily decrease of 2.31%. The trading volume is 14689 (a decrease of 92 compared to the previous period), and the unilateral open interest is 23789 (an increase of 662 compared to the previous period). The net long position of the top 20 members is 0 [2]. - EC2512: The latest成交价 is 1539.3 points, with a daily decrease of 0.18%. The trading volume is 1729 (an increase of 20 compared to the previous period), and the unilateral open interest is 4587 (an increase of 177 compared to the previous period) [2]. - EC2602: The latest成交价 is 1358.8 points, with a daily decrease of 1.56%. The trading volume is 632 (a decrease of 285 compared to the previous period), and the unilateral open interest is 2736 (a decrease of 47 compared to the previous period) [2]. - EC2604: The latest成交价 is 1181.9 points, with a daily decrease of 2.62%. The trading volume is 884 (an increase of 146 compared to the previous period), and the unilateral open interest is 3405 (an increase of 122 compared to the previous period) [2]. Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Routes - Weekly spot index: The SCFIS is 1252.82 points, with a week - on - week increase of 0.5%. The SCFI is $1587/TEU, with a week - on - week increase of 20.5% [4]. - Daily spot freight rates: The TCI (20GP) is $1712/TEU, with a day - on - day increase of 14.6%. The TCI (40GP) is $2727/FEU, with a day - on - day increase of 13.4% [4]. Basis Spread - The basis of the previous trading day was - 847.38 points, and the basis of the day before the previous trading day was - 828.25 points, with a change of - 19.13 points [6]. Spot Market Data - Capacity: The capacity deployment on the Asia - Europe route is 511336 TEU, a decrease of 1405 TEU compared to the previous period. The idle capacity ratio is 1.9%. The idle capacity ratios of container ships of 17000TEU +, 12000 - 16999TEU, and 8000 - 11999TEU are 1.3%, 0.9%, and 1.4% respectively [7]. - Speed: The average speed of container ships is 13.88 knots. The average speed of 17000TEU + container ships is 15.65 knots, and that of 12000 - 16999TEU container ships is 15.37 knots [7]. - In - port capacity: The in - port capacity in Rotterdam is 18.77 million TEU, in Hamburg is 7.92 million TEU, and in Singapore is 35.02 million TEU [7]. - Bypass situation: The number of ships bypassing the Aden Gulf is 16. The north - bound traffic volume through the Suez Canal is 2, and the south - bound traffic volume is 2 [7]. - Time charter rates: For 6 - 12 months, the time charter rate for 9000TEU is $103000 per day, for 6500TEU is $68000 per day, and for 2500TEU is $34500 per day [7].

2025年06月03日申万期货品种策略日报-国债 | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2509 | TS2512 | TF2509 | TF2512 | T2509 | T2512 | TL2509 | TL2512 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.396 | 102.562 | 106.020 | 106.100 | 108.855 | 108.850 | 119.76 | 119.65 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.346 | 102.510 | 105.870 | 105.950 | 108.850 | 108.825 | 119.6 | 119.5 | | | 涨跌 | 0.050 | 0.052 | 0.150 | 0.150 | 0.005 | 0.025 | 0.160 | 0.150 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Before the festival, the EC of the container shipping European line slightly declined, with the 08 contract closing at 2075.3 points. The SCFI European line announced after the market was $1587/TEU, a week - on - week increase of $270/TEU, reflecting the price increase by shipping companies in early June. After some shipping companies slightly raised prices, the average online price of 40 - foot containers of shipping companies in the second week of June increased to around $2560, corresponding to an SCFIS European line of 1750 points, at a discount of 100 - 200 points to the current 06 contract, including the market's expectation of a slight price increase in the following period of June. Due to the lack of capacity adjustment by shipping companies and the delayed start of the peak season, the upside of the 08 - contract freight rate is under pressure. As the traditional peak season approaches and the capacity put into operation in the second and third weeks of June drops below 250,000 TEU, it is expected that shipping companies will still raise prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the low - level long - allocation opportunities after the market returns to the realistic anchor [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs EC Contract Volume and Price - The latest trading price of EC2506 is 1834.8 points, with a latest increase of 1.01%. The trading volume is 7355, and the unilateral open interest is 11037. The long - position open interest of the top 20 members is 7599, the short - position open interest is 8121, and the net long position is - 522 [2]. - The latest trading price of EC2508 is 2075.3 points, with a latest decrease of 0.25%. The trading volume is 102747, and the unilateral open interest is 41824. The long - position open interest of the top 20 members is 22228, the short - position open interest is 23430, and the net long position is - 1202 [2]. - The latest trading price of EC2510 is 1346.4 points, with a latest decrease of 3.65%. The trading volume is 14781, and the unilateral open interest is 23127 [2]. - The latest trading price of EC2512 is 1527.6 points, with a latest decrease of 2.73%. The trading volume is 1709, and the unilateral open interest is 4410 [2]. - The latest trading price of EC2602 is 1368 points, with a latest decrease of 2.76%. The trading volume is 917, and the unilateral open interest is 2783 [2]. - The latest trading price of EC2604 is 1200 points, with a latest decrease of 2.91%. The trading volume is 738, and the unilateral open interest is 3283 [2]. - The total trading volume is 128247, and the total unilateral open interest is 86464. The total long - position open interest of the top 20 members is 29827, the total short - position open interest is 31551, and the total net long position is - 1724 [2]. Latest Spot Freight Rate - European Route - The latest SCFIS index is 1252.82 points, with a week - on - week increase of 0.5%. The latest SCFI is $1587/TEU, with a week - on - week increase of 20.5% [2]. - The latest TCI(20GP) is $1493/TEU, with a day - on - day decrease of 2.4%. The latest TCI(40GP) is $2404/FEU, with a day - on - day decrease of 2.9% [2]. - The previous day's basis was - 828.25 points, and the day before that was - 883.95 points, with a week - on - week increase of 55.7 points [2]. Spot Market Data - Shipping Capacity - The capacity put into operation on the Asia - Europe route is 512501 TEU, with no week - on - week increase. The idle capacity ratios of global container ships, 17000TEU + container ships, 12000 - 16999TEU container ships, and 8000 - 11999TEU container ships are 1.9%, 1.3%, 0.9%, and 1.4% respectively [5]. - The average speed of container ships is 13.88 knots. The average speed of 17000TEU + container ships is 15.65 knots, and that of 12000 - 16999TEU container ships is 15.37 knots [5]. - The in - port capacity in Rotterdam is 187,700 TEU, in Hamburg Port is 79,200 TEU, and in Singapore is 350,200 TEU [5]. - The number of ships passing through the Gulf of Aden is 16, the north - bound traffic volume of the Suez Canal is 2, and the south - bound traffic volume is 2 [5]. - The 6 - 12 - month time - charter rates for 9000TEU, 6500TEU, and 2500TEU container ships are $103,000/day, $68,000/day, and $34,500/day respectively [5].

报告日期：2025 年 6 月 3 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：制造业 PMI 回升 国家统计局公布数据显示，5 月份，我国制造业 PMI 为 49.5%，比上月上升 0.5 个百分点。非制造业 PMI 为 50.3%，比上月下降 0.1 个百分点。综合 PMI 为 50.4%， 比上月上升 0.2 个百分点。新出口订单指数和进口指数分别为 47.5%和 47.1%， 比上月上升 2.8 和 3.7 个百分点。调查中部分涉美企业反映外贸订单加速重启， 进出口情况有所改善。美国总统特朗普在宾夕法尼亚州举行的一场集会上表示， 将把进口钢铁的关税从 25%提高至 50%，该决定从 6 月 4 日（周三）起生效。对 此，欧盟委员会发布声明称，目前正在就扩大反制措施进行最终磋商。美国 5 月 ISM 制造业 PMI 为 48.5，为 2024 年 11 月以来新低，预期 49.5，前值 48.7。美 国 5 月标普全球制造业 PMI 终值为 52，初值 52.3。标普全球称，美国 5 月销售 费用通胀达到 2022 年末以来的最高水平。 重点品种：原油、贵金属、股指 原油：周末乌克兰袭击俄罗斯推动油价上涨。美国一 ...

（核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 | | 20250603申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 可能短期宽幅波动 铜： | | | | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | 摘要 | 铝： 短期内或以震荡为主。 | | | | 镍： 短期内或以震荡偏强。 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：假期LME铜价上涨83美元。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶 | | | | 炼产量。根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电网带动 | 可能短期宽 | | 铜 | 电力投资高增长，家电产量延续增长，需关注出口变化，新能源渗透率提升 | 幅波动 | | | 有望巩固汽车铜需求，地产数据降幅缩窄。铜价短期可能宽幅波动，关注美 国关税进展，以及美元、人民币汇率、库存和基差等变化。 | | | | 锌：假期LME锌价上涨26美元。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据 | | | | 来看， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Before the holiday, polyolefins showed a weak performance. The consumption of polyolefins has temporarily peaked and declined, and the previous rebound in the market has digested the positive macro - factors at home and abroad. The decline in crude oil prices has reduced the cost support for chemicals, but the slight rebound in international crude oil prices during the long - holiday is conducive to the stabilization of polyolefins [2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6923, 6928, and 6960 respectively, with price drops of - 62, - 62, and - 65, and declines of - 0.89%, - 0.89%, and - 0.93%. The trading volumes were 35322, 83, and 311232, and the open interests were 108143, 513, and 548604, with changes of 4615, 39, and 5320. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 5, - 32, and 37 [2] - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6802, 6817, and 6875 respectively, with price drops of - 62, - 55, and - 43, and declines of - 0.90%, - 0.80%, and - 0.62%. The trading volumes were 35928, 229, and 267599, and the open interests were 80929, 517, and 514977, with changes of 2828, 193, and - 6161. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 15, - 58, and 73 [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2222 yuan/ton, 6410 yuan/ton, 625 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6940 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively [2] - **Mid - stream**: The current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets for LL were 7200 - 7750 yuan/ton, 7200 - 7400 yuan/ton, and 7350 - 7700 yuan/ton respectively; for PP, they were 7050 - 7200 yuan/ton, 7050 - 7200 yuan/ton, and 7100 - 7300 yuan/ton respectively [2] News - On Monday (June 2), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for July 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $62.52 per barrel, up $1.73 or 2.85% from the previous trading day. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for August 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $64.63 per barrel, up $1.85 or 2.95% from the previous trading day [2]

20250516申万期货品种策略日报-贵金属 | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 林新杰（从业编号：F3032999 交易咨询号：Z0014722） linxj@sywgqh.com.cn | 021-50586279 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪金2506 | 沪金2512 | 沪银2506 | 沪银2512 | | | | 现价 | 752.26 | 757.90 | 8110.00 | 8176.00 | | | 期 | 前收盘价 | 759.70 | 765.62 | 8172.00 | 8237.00 | | | 货 | | | | | | | | | 涨跌 | -7.44 | -7.72 | -62.00 | -61.00 | | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | -0.98% | -1.01% | -0.76% | -0.74% | | | 场 | 持仓量 | 67172 | 55950 | 161604 | 125287 | | | | 成交量 | 69209 | 14621 | 253713 | 33734 | | ...