集运欧线数据日报 2026/2/3 最新观点 集运欧线：EC下跌3.06%。节前现货运价仍将延续下行为主，2月第三周大柜均价降至2080美元左右，测算下来 目前市场仍有200-300点左右的贴水，深贴水和强预期下现实层面可博弈的空间相对较小，更多还是集中于预 期层面的博弈。近期商品市场降温，预计也会对市场情绪形成一定压制。比较主要的事件是4月1日前光伏等产 品的抢出口，结合去年8月9月光伏抢出口的测算来看，可带来大概2艘18000-23000TEU的集装箱船货量，对于 节后淡季来说较难带来爆舱，但更多可能会带来船司的表价提涨和运价的企稳甚至小幅上行，为市场带来现实 层面的驱动，重点关注后续船司涨价函的公布情况可能带来的预期证伪。 | | | | | EC合约量价 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 最新成交价 | 最新涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量单边 | 多单持仓 | 空单持仓 | 净多持仓 | | | （点） | （%） | 环比变化 | 环比变化 | (前20会员) | (前20会员) | (前20会员) | ...

本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 20260203申万期货有色金属基差日报 | 品种 | 观点 | | --- | --- | | 铜 | 铜：夜盘铜价收涨2.27%。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润处于盈亏边缘，冶炼产量虽 环比回落，但总体延续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电力投资稳定；汽车产销正增长； 家电排产负增长；地产持续疲弱。铜价短期可能进入调整阶段。关注美元、铜冶炼产量和 | | | 下游需求等变化。 | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收涨1.53%。锌精矿加工费回落，精矿供应阶段性紧张，冶炼产量延续增长 。中钢协统计的镀锌板库存总体高位。基建投资累计增速趋缓，汽车产销正增长；家电排 | | 锌 | 产负增长；地产持续疲弱。锌价可能跟随有色整体走势。建议关注美元、冶炼产量和下游 | | | 需求等变化。 | | 品种 | 国内前日期货 收盘价 | 国内基差 | 前日LME3月 期收盘价 | LME现货升贴水 （CASH-3M） | LME库存 | LME库存日 度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

及 策 略 南方市场价格表现不一，多数跌后企稳，部分稍涨，月初集团企业出栏节奏较前期有所减 缓，供应压力暂时稍减，但屠宰端反馈目前订单量并无明显增加，且部分市场因人员返乡， 需求减少，继续关注企业端的出栏量级以及消费量。 免 责 声 明 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 作者具有期货交易咨询执业资格，保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，本报告清晰准确地 反映了作者的研究观点，力求独立、客观和公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响，作者及利益相关方不曾因也将不会因本 报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接获取任何形式的不当利益。 免责声明 本报告的信息均来源于第三方信息提供商或其他已公开信息，本公司对这些信息的准确性、完整性、时效性或可靠性不作任何 保证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中 的观点、结论和建议仅供参考 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to fluctuate overnight, with an oversupply situation remaining unchanged. It is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short - term due to the seasonal increase in sugar supply during the peak crushing season of southern sugar mills, unexpected high imports in December, and weak spot - market price and pre - holiday consumption [4]. - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated strongly overnight and maintained an overall strong trend. Driven by long - position funds and a weakening US dollar, both US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton rose with increased trading volume. Although the pre - holiday replenishment of downstream textile mills provides some support and spot sales are smooth, the follow - up demand support needs to be observed as the replenishment is approaching the end [4]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Futures Market - **Price and Volume Information**: For sugar futures contracts (2609, 2605, 2603), prices decreased with declines of - 0.80%, - 0.78%, - 0.57% respectively compared to the previous two days. For 11 - number sugar futures contracts (2603, 2607, 2605), the price of 2603 remained unchanged, while 2607 and 2605 decreased by - 0.43% and - 0.42% respectively. There were also changes in持仓 volume and trading volume, with some contracts seeing an increase and others a decrease [1]. - **Price Difference Information**: The present values of price differences between different sugar futures contracts and 11 - number sugar futures contracts have changed compared to the previous values [1]. Spot Market - **Sugar Spot Price**: The current spot prices of white sugar in Liuzhou and Kunming are 5360 and 5175 respectively, showing a decrease compared to the previous values. The basis values in different regions also changed [1]. - **Sugar Import Price**: Import prices from Brazil and Thailand, both within and outside the quota, decreased compared to the previous values. The differences between futures prices and Thai sugar prices also slightly decreased [1]. Inventory and Position - The current sugar warehouse receipts are 14069, with an effective prediction of 197, and the total of warehouse receipts and predictions is 14266. The non - commercial long and short positions of ICE 11 - number sugar and their ratio also changed compared to the previous values [1]. Industry News - **Import Forecast**: The Ministry of Commerce reported that the forecasted arrival of out - of - quota raw sugar in January was 0 tons [2]. - **Brazilian Shipping Data**: As of the week ending January 28, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports increased to 54, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 178.26 million tons, with 163.03 million tons being high - grade raw sugar. The waiting sugar quantities at Santos and Paranagua ports were also reported [2]. - **Brazilian Production Forecast**: StoneX predicted that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2026/27 season would be 40.7 million tons, a decrease of 0.8 million tons from the previous forecast, while ethanol production is expected to be 36.5 billion liters, an increase of 0.4 billion liters [2]. - **Indian Production Data**: As of January 31, 2026, the sugar production in India's 2025/26 season reached 19.503 million tons, a 18.35% increase compared to the same period last year. The number of operating sugar mills also increased. Different states in India showed varying degrees of production growth. Also, 18 sugar mills had stopped operating, and relevant data on cane crushing and sugar production were reported [3].

申银万国期货研究所 陆甲明 （从业编号F3079531 交易咨询号Z0015919） 略 给端的一些收缩的预期兑现的情况。 免 责 声 明 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 作者具有期货交易咨询执业资格，保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，本报告清晰准确地 反映了作者的研究观点，力求独立、客观和公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响，作者及利益相关方不曾因也将不会因本 报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接获取任何形式的不当利益。 免责声明 本报告的信息均来源于第三方信息提供商或其他已公开信息，本公司对这些信息的准确性、完整性、时效性或可靠性不作任何 保证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中 的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息或意见并不构成所述品种的买卖出价，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与本公司 无关。 本报 ...

| 申万期货品种策略日报——股指 | 2026/2/3 | 星期二 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 申银万国期货研究所 贾婷婷（从业资格号：F3056905；交易咨询号：Z0016232 ）jiatt@sywgqh.com.cn;15921620356 | 申银万国期货研究所 柴玉荣 （从业资格号：F03111639；交易咨询号：Z0018586）chaiyr@sywgqh.com.cn;18802979529 | | | | | | | | | | | 一、股指期货市场 | IF当月 | IF下月 | IF下季 | IF隔季 | | | | | | | | 前两日收盘价 | 4710.00 | 4711.00 | 4699.80 | 4655.00 | 前日收盘价 | 4582.20 | 4577.40 | 4540.00 | 4491.80 | | | 涨跌 | -136.20 | -142.20 | -167.60 | -170.60 | 沪深300 | 涨跌幅 ...

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2603 | TS2606 | TF2603 | TF2606 | T2603 | T2606 | TL2603 | TL2606 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.390 | 102.408 | 105.860 | 105.895 | 108.250 | 108.210 | 112.06 | 112.2 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.394 | 102.418 | 105.890 | 105.920 | 108.310 | 108.310 | 111.92 | 112.04 | | | 涨跌 | -0.004 | -0.010 | -0.030 | -0.025 | -0.060 | -0.100 | 0.140 | 0.160 | | | 涨跌幅 | 0.00% ...

| | 20260202申万期货品种策略日报-双焦(JI&J) | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 申银万国期货研究所 沈击奉 (从业编号F03148029 交易咨询号Z0022842) | | | | | | | | | shenyb@sywggh.com.cn 021-50582113 | | | | | | | | | IL I | | | | | | | | | 1月 5月 9月 1月 5月 9 H | | | | | | | | | 前1日收盘价 1405.5 1232.5 1874. 0 1787.0 | | 1155. 5 | | | 1721.5 | | | | 前2日收盘价 1419.5 | | 1165.0 | 1242.5 | 1876.5 | 1723.0 | 1791.5 | | EH | 煮蛋 -14.0 | | -9.5 | -10.0 | -2.5 | -1.5 | -4.5 | | स्त | 楽跌幅 -0. 99% | | -0. 82% | -0. 80% | -0.13% ...

集运欧线数据日报 2026/2/2 最新观点 集运欧线：上周五EC下跌1.55%。盘后公布的SCFI欧线为1418美元/TEU，环比下跌177美元/TEU，对应于 02.02-02.08期间的欧线订舱价，反映2月第一周船司运价的加速下调。整体来看，节前现货运价仍将延续下行 为主，现实层面可博弈的空间相对较小，更多可能是预期层面的博弈。比较主要的事件是4月1日前光伏等产品 的抢出口，结合去年8月9月光伏抢出口的测算来看，可带来大概2艘18000-23000TEU的集装箱船货量，对于节 后淡季来说较难带来爆舱，但更多可能会带来船司的表价提涨和运价的企稳甚至小幅上行，为市场带来现实层 面的驱动，重点关注后续船司涨价函的公布情况可能带来的预期证伪。 | | | | | EC合约量价 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 最新成交价 | 最新涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量单边 | 多单持仓 | 空单持仓 | 净多持仓 | | | （点） | （%） | 环比变化 | 环比变化 | (前20会员) | (前20会员) | (前20 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - SC night session declined by 2.67%. US President Trump indicated that Iran intended to contact the US and hinted at possible resumption of diplomatic communication. The situation in Venezuela also alleviated as it was promoting comprehensive oil legal reform [3]. - US crude oil daily production for the week ending January 16 was 13.732 million barrels, a decrease of 21,000 barrels from the previous week and an increase of 255,000 barrels from the same period last year [3]. - Methanol night session declined by 0.13%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) - to - olefins plants was 80.06%, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points from the previous period [3]. - As of January 29, coastal methanol inventory was 1.43 million tons, a 0.33% decrease from January 22, and a 42.43% increase year - on - year. The estimated available marketable methanol in coastal areas was around 720,000 tons [3]. - The estimated import ship arrivals in China from January 30 to February 15 were between 593,000 and 600,000 tons. As of January 29, the overall operating load of domestic methanol plants was 77.56%, a 0.15 - percentage - point increase from the previous period and a 0.75 - percentage - point increase compared to the same period last year [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Volume Information**: For SC, the previous day's closing prices were 464.7 for the near - month contract and 472.5 for the next - month contract, with increases of 6.5 and 12.2 respectively, and increases of 1.42% and 2.65%. For WTI, the near - month and next - month closing prices were 65.51 and 65.03, with increases of 2.01 and 1.89, and increases of 3.17% and 2.99%. For Brent, the near - month and next - month closing prices were 68.74 and 67.69, with increases of 1.04 and 0.93, and increases of 1.54% and 1.39%. The trading volumes and open interests of each contract were also provided, along with the changes in open interests [2]. - **Spread Information**: The spreads between different contracts were presented, including SC near - month - SC next - month, SC next - month - SC next - next - month, etc., and their current and previous values [2]. Spot Market - **International Market**: The prices of OPEC's basket of crude oil, Brent DTD, Russian ESPD, Oman, Dubai, and Cinta were given, showing an upward trend compared to the previous values [2]. - **Domestic Market**: The prices of domestic crude oil (Daqing, Shengli), Chinese gasoline wholesale price index, Chinese diesel wholesale price index, FOB naphtha (Singapore), and ex - factory price of jet kerosene were provided, with most showing an increase [2].