Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is currently in a calm state before a potential upsurge, with various international and domestic news influencing different sectors [1]. - For key varieties, the report provides detailed analyses and outlooks, including precious metals, stock indices, and crude oil, with different trends and influencing factors for each [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Main News on the Day - **International News**: The US Court of Appeals ruled that Trump's tariff measures may continue to be in effect during the appeal process [4]. - **Domestic News**: The Ministry of Commerce extended the anti - dumping investigation on imported pork and pork by - products from the EU until December 16, 2025 [5]. - **Industry News**: The online auction of coking coal from Mongolia's small TT company had all lots go unsold, with a total of 486,400 tons unsold in 10 auctions since the beginning of the year [6]. 2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500 rose 0.55%, the FTSE China A50 Futures fell 0.18%, the US Dollar Index rose 0.16%, ICE Brent Crude fell 0.79%, London Gold Spot rose 0.03%, London Silver fell 0.60%, and other commodities also had corresponding price changes [7]. 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Stock Indices**: US stock indices rose, while the previous trading day's domestic stock indices declined in the afternoon, with small - cap stocks leading the decline. The current valuation of major domestic indices is low, and the market is expected to consolidate in the short term, with potential for directional movement and increased volatility if new stimuli emerge [2][9][10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds showed mixed performance. The central bank's net withdrawal of funds led to a relatively loose market liquidity. With the US non - farm data exceeding expectations and the Fed's reduced expectation of interest rate cuts this year, and considering domestic economic data and the property market situation, the central bank is likely to maintain a supportive monetary policy, which supports the price of Treasury bond futures [11]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose 0.54% at night. US commercial crude oil inventories decreased, and the US proposed temporary measures in the Iran - US nuclear negotiations. In the short term, crude oil prices are resistant to decline, but in the long term, a 1.2 million - barrel - per - day increase in production is a major negative factor [12]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose 0.13% at night. The operating rate of coal - to - olefin plants increased, while the overall methanol plant operating rate decreased slightly. Coastal methanol inventories increased, and it is expected to be bullish in the short term [13]. - **Rubber**: Rubber rebounded slightly. With good weather in domestic production areas and smooth new rubber supply in Thailand, supply pressure is emerging, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [14]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins rebounded slightly. The consumption of polyolefins has entered a off - season, and the spot price is average. The rebound of international oil prices helps stabilize polyolefins, and they may gradually stop falling and attempt to rebound [15][16]. - **Glass/Soda Ash**: Glass futures declined and consolidated. Glass production enterprise inventories increased, and soda ash futures were also in a low - level consolidation. Both are in a cycle of inventory digestion, and attention should be paid to the supply - demand balance process [17]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver showed divergent trends, with gold oscillating and silver strengthening. US economic data affected short - term interest rate cut expectations, and the gold - silver ratio is being repaired. Gold is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish in the short term [18]. - **Copper**: Copper prices may fluctuate within a range due to the intersection of multiple factors such as low concentrate processing fees, stable domestic downstream demand, and concerns about US tariffs [19]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices may have a wide - range fluctuation. With the improvement of concentrate supply and the recovery of smelting supply expected, attention should be paid to factors such as US tariffs and downstream production [20]. - **Aluminum**: The main contract of Shanghai aluminum rose 0.25% at night. With Trump's wavering tariff attitude and potential improvements in the ore end, the demand for electrolytic aluminum is expected to weaken in the short term, and it may oscillate [21]. - **Nickel**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel fell 0.25% at night. With tight nickel ore supply in Indonesia and other factors, the nickel market has both positive and negative factors, and the price may be slightly bullish and oscillating in the short term [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly production of lithium carbonate increased. Although the cathode production data is average, the cathode inventory is being digested. The overall fundamentals have not improved substantially, and attention should be paid to low - level capital games [23]. Black Metals - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore demand is supported by strong production motivation of steel mills, but the global iron ore shipment has decreased recently. The medium - term supply - demand imbalance pressure is large, and it is expected to be supported in the short term and weaken in the long term [24]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is emerging, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant for now. With the arrival of the rainy season and overseas tariff policies, the demand for steel is expected to weaken, and rebar may be weaker than hot - rolled coils in the short term [25]. - **Coking Coal/Coke**: The futures prices of coking coal and coke rebounded strongly, but the spot market responded slowly. With the implementation of the new Mineral Resources Law and the approaching of the rainy season, attention should be paid to the negative feedback [26]. Agricultural Products - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats are expected to maintain an oscillating trend. The US - China relationship improvement affects soybean oil, and the Malaysian palm oil data has a neutral impact on the market [27]. - **Protein Meals**: Protein meals are expected to be strongly oscillating. The improvement of US - China relations supports US soybean prices, while domestic oil mills' high - volume operations may accelerate the accumulation of soybean meal inventory [28]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: Corn prices are expected to break through the high level. The feed demand is weak, but the supply is tight in the spot market, and the main contract can be considered bullish at a low level in the medium - long term [29]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are under pressure at a high level. With the expected increase in new cotton supply in Xinjiang and weak downstream demand, it is recommended to build long positions at a low level and expect demand recovery in the medium - long term [30]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index is oscillating. The 08 contract is basically following the spot freight rate, and its ability to break through the previous high depends on the price increase in July and August. With the increase in shipping capacity, the market is expected to continue to oscillate, and short - selling opportunities can be considered [31][32].

| | 20250611申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | 摘要 | 铝： 短期内或以震荡为主。 | | | | 镍： 短期内或以震荡偏强。 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收涨。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。 | | | | 根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电力行业延续正增 | 可能短期宽 | | 铜 | 长；汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产持续疲弱。多空因素交织， | 幅波动 | | | 铜价可能区间波动。关注美国关税进展，以及美元、铜冶炼和家电产量等因 | | | | 素变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收涨。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来看，国 | | | 锌 | 内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电产量增速趋缓，地产持续疲弱。市 | 可能短期宽 | | | 场预期今年精矿供应明显改善，冶炼供应可能恢复。短期锌价可能宽幅波 | 幅波动 | | | 动，关注美国关税进展，以及美元、锌冶炼和家电产 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefins mainly showed a slight rebound. Spot prices of linear LL and拉丝PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. Currently, from a fundamental perspective, polyolefin consumption has entered a relative off - season, and spot prices generally performed mediocre. The fluctuation of futures prices is more influenced by cost and market sentiment. The rebound of international oil prices helps polyolefins stop falling and stabilize. In the future, the driving force is limited, but due to the relatively low valuation, polyolefins may gradually stop falling, build a bottom, and attempt a rebound [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: For the 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contracts, the previous day's closing prices were 7078, 7067, and 7106 respectively, with increases of 28 (0.40%), 31 (0.44%), and 28 (0.40%) compared to the day before. The trading volumes were 33611, 210, and 324522, and the open interests were 113054, 665, and 530962, with decreases of 2548, 11, and 14408 respectively [2]. - **PP Futures**: For the 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contracts, the previous day's closing prices were 6896, 6889, and 6941 respectively, with increases of 3 (0.04%), 0 (0.00%), and 9 (0.13%) compared to the day before. The trading volumes were 17995, 118, and 295028, and the open interests were 78445, 604, and 511475, with decreases of 375, 18, and 4864 respectively [2]. - **Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of 1 - month - 5 - month, 5 - month - 9 - month, and 9 - month - 1 - month were 11, - 39, and 28 respectively; for PP, they were 7, - 52, and 45 respectively [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2279 yuan/ton, 6360 yuan/ton, 608 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6970 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Spot Market**: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7150 - 7750 yuan/ton, 7050 - 7300 yuan/ton, and 7250 - 7550 yuan/ton respectively; for PP, they were 7000 - 7150 yuan/ton, 6950 - 7100 yuan/ton, and 7050 - 7200 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Information - On Tuesday (June 10), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for July 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $64.98 per barrel, down $0.31 (0.47%) from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $64.57 - $66.28. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for August 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $66.87 per barrel, down $0.17 (0.25%) from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $66.48 - $68 [2].

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | | | TS2509 | TS2512 | TF2509 | TF2512 | T2509 | T2512 | TL2509 | TL2512 | | | 昨日收盘价 前日收盘价 | 102.442 102.448 | 102.552 102.560 | 106.135 106.125 | 106.215 106.225 | 108.995 109.000 | 108.980 109.000 | 120.16 120.14 | 119.99 119.96 | | | 涨跌 | -0.006 | -0.008 | 0.010 | -0.010 | -0.005 | -0.020 | 0.020 | 0.030 | | | 涨跌幅 | -0.01 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors due to factors such as trade policies, economic data, and central bank policies [2][3][4] - Precious metals: Gold is in a long - term uptrend with short - term fluctuations, while silver is currently strong. Steel market faces supply - demand imbalance, and the crude oil market has short - term support but long - term pressure [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main News International News - US May non - farm payrolls added 139,000, exceeding expectations. The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in June is 99.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut by July is 16.5% [5] Domestic News - Canadian Prime Minister expressed willingness to restart Canada - China relations and strengthen cooperation in various fields [6] Industry News - As of June 6, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index increased by 167.64 points, and the China Export Container Freight Index rose by 3.3% [7] 3.2 Outer - disk Daily Earnings - S&P 500 increased by 0.09%, FTSE China A50 Futures decreased by 0.17%, and ICE Brent crude oil rose by 0.72% from June 6 to June 9 [8] 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - Stock Index: Currently in a state of shock, with low implied volatility of stock index options. If there are new stimuli, it may choose a direction and increase volatility [10][11] - Treasury Bonds: Showed mixed performance. The market funds are relatively loose, and the price is supported to some extent, but it is necessary to pay attention to the progress of trade negotiations [12] Energy and Chemical - Crude Oil: SC night session fluctuated upward. Short - term support exists, but long - term pressure comes from a 1.2 - million - barrel - per - day increase in production [4][13] - Methanol: Short - term bullish, with an increase in import arrivals expected [14] - Rubber: Supply pressure is increasing, and the short - term trend is expected to be weak [15] - Polyolefins: May gradually stop falling and build a bottom, with limited driving force [16][17] - Glass/Soda Ash: Both are in a cycle of inventory digestion, and attention should be paid to the balance of supply and demand [18] Metal - Precious Metals: Gold is in shock, and silver is strong in the short term. The gold - silver ratio is being repaired [2][19] - Copper: May fluctuate in a range due to the balance of supply and demand factors [20] - Zinc: Short - term price may fluctuate widely, affected by factors such as US tariffs [21] - Aluminum: May fluctuate in the short term, with weakening demand [22][23] - Nickel: May show a shock - strong trend in the short term, with mixed supply and demand factors [24] - Lithium Carbonate: The fundamental situation has not improved substantially, and attention should be paid to low - level capital games [25] Black - Iron Ore: Has short - term support but may be weak in the later stage, affected by factors such as steel mill production and global shipments [26] - Steel: Faces a situation of weak supply and demand, with rebar weaker than hot - rolled coils in the short term [3][27] - Coking Coal/Coke: Futures prices are at a low level, and the market is uncertain. Attention should be paid to the negative feedback [28][29] Agricultural Products - Oils and Fats: The pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains, and attention should be paid to the MPOB report [30] - Protein Meal: Expected to be bullish in the short term due to improved US soybean export prospects and domestic inventory accumulation [31] - Corn/Corn Starch: The long - term supply gap may exist, and the main contract can be treated as bullish at a low level [32] - Cotton: Zhengzhou cotton is under pressure at a high level, and attention should be paid to export orders [33] Shipping Index - Container Shipping to Europe: The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the price increase in July and August [34][35]

| | 20250610申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | 摘要 | 铝： 短期内或以震荡为主。 | | | | 镍： 短期内或以震荡偏强。 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收涨。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。 | | | | 根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电力行业延续正增 | 可能短期宽 | | 铜 | 长；汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产持续疲弱。多空因素交织， 铜价可能区间波动。关注美国关税进展，以及美元、铜冶炼和家电产量等因 | 幅波动 | | | 素变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收涨。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来看，国 | | | | 内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电产量增速趋缓，地产持续疲弱。市 | 可能短期宽 | | 锌 | 场预期今年精矿供应明显改善，冶炼供应可能恢复。短期锌价可能宽幅波 | 幅波动 | | | 动，关注美国关税进展，以及美元、锌冶炼和家电产量等因素变化。 ...

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 昨日收盘价 | TS2509 102.448 | TS2512 102.560 | TF2509 106.125 | TF2512 106.225 | T2509 109.000 | T2512 109.000 | TL2509 120.14 | TL2512 119.96 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.452 | 102.574 | 106.140 | 106.230 | 108.925 | 108.945 | 119.78 | 119.6 | | | 涨跌 | -0.004 | -0.014 | -0.015 | -0.005 | 0.075 | 0.055 | 0.360 | 0.360 | | | 涨跌幅 | 0.00% | -0.01% | -0.01% | 0.0 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The EC of the container shipping European line opened low and fluctuated, with the 08 contract closing at 2065.6 points, a decrease of 2.55%. The latest SCFIS European line on June 9 was 1622.81 points, corresponding to the departure settlement price from 06.02 - 06.08, a 29.5% increase from the previous period, but the increase was less than expected. The current 08 contract basically follows the spot freight rate fluctuations, and whether it can break through the previous high depends on the price increases and implementation in July and August. The market valuation is relatively neutral but the expectation is weak, and it is expected to continue the volatile pattern. Attention can be paid to short - selling opportunities on rallies [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Contract Volume and Price | Contract | Latest Transaction Price (Points) | Latest Increase/Decrease (%) | Trading Volume | Open Interest (Unilateral) | Long Positions (Top 20 Members) | Short Positions (Top 20 Members) | Net Long Positions (Top 20 Members) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2506 | 1948.6 | - 0.31 | 1319 (-1042 compared to the previous period) | 7803 (-335 compared to the previous period) | 6036 | 5812 | 224 | | EC2508 | 2065.6 | - 2.55 | 55701 (-27235 compared to the previous period) | 44127 (-2100 compared to the previous period) | 23014 | 24598 | - 1584 | | EC2510 | 1343.7 | - 0.57 | 7945 (-5732 compared to the previous period) | 24244 (150 compared to the previous period) | 0 | 0 | 0 | | EC2512 | 1520.7 | - 0.18 | 1211 (-721 compared to the previous period) | 4827 (88 compared to the previous period) | | | | | EC2602 | 1376.5 | 0.32 | 379 (-257 compared to the previous period) | 2786 (-5 compared to the previous period) | | | | | EC2604 | 1225.5 | 1.23 | 600 (61 compared to the previous period) | 3356 (-11 compared to the previous period) | | | | | Total | - | - | 67155 | 87143 | 29050 | 30410 | - 1360 | [2] Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Routes | Spot Index | Indicator | Latest Period | Month - on - Month Increase/Decrease | Previous Period | Month - on - Month Increase/Decrease | Two Periods Ago | Month - on - Month Increase/Decrease | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (Weekly) | SCFIS - Points | 1622.81 | 29.5% | 1252.82 | 0.5% | 1247.05 | - 1.4% | | | SCFI - $/TEU | 1667 | 5.0% | 1587 | 20.5% | 1317 | 14.1% | | Spot Freight Rates | TCI(20GP) $/TEU | 1809 | - 2.4% | 1854 | 0.0% | 1854 | 0.0% | | (Daily) | TCI(40GP) $/FEU | 2913 | - 3.0% | 3002 | 0.0% | 3002 | 0.0% | [4] Basis Spread (Points) The previous trading day's basis was 366.89, and the basis two trading days ago was - 442.79, with a month - on - month change of - 809.68. There are also trend charts for the basis of the main contract of the container shipping European line futures and the spreads between different contracts [6]. Spot Market Data - **Capacity**: The capacity of the Asia - Europe route was 511055 TEU, a decrease of 1285 TEU compared to the previous period. The idle capacity ratios of global container ships, 17000TEU+ container ships, 12000 - 16999TEU container ships, and 8000 - 11999TEU container ships were 1.7%, 1.2%, 0.7%, and 1.8% respectively. - **Speed**: The average speed of container ships was 13.88 knots, the speed of 17000TEU+ container ships was 15.46 knots, and the speed of 12000 - 16999TEU container ships was 15.26 knots. - **In - Port Capacity**: The in - port capacity in Rotterdam was 23.21 million TEU, in Hamburg was 10.83 million TEU, and in Singapore was 35.86 million TEU. - **Bypass Situation**: The number of ships bypassing the Aden Gulf was 8, the north - bound traffic volume through the Suez Canal was 1, and the south - bound traffic volume was 2. - **Charter Rates**: The 6 - 12 - month charter rates for 9000TEU, 6500TEU, and 2500TEU container ships were $104000 per day, $68500 per day, and $34750 per day respectively [7].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - Polyolefins are mainly in a consolidation phase. From a fundamental perspective, polyolefin consumption has entered a relative off - season, and spot prices generally perform mediocrely. The futures price fluctuations mainly follow costs and market sentiment. The recent rebound of international oil prices helps polyolefins stop falling and stabilize. In the future, the driving force is limited, but due to the relatively low valuation, polyolefins may gradually stop falling and build a bottom [2]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Change**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7050, 7036, and 7078 yuan/ton respectively, with price increases of 13, 20, and 12 yuan/ton and increases of 0.18%, 0.29%, and 0.17% respectively; for PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6893, 6889, and 6932 yuan/ton respectively, with price increases of 16, 21, and 7 yuan/ton and increases of 0.23%, 0.31%, and 0.10% respectively [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 24038, 84, and 249544 respectively, and the open interests were 115602, 676, and 545370 respectively, with open interest changes of 2754, 33, and 1429 respectively; for PP, the trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 14698, 67, and 229503 respectively, and the open interests were 78820, 622, and 516339 respectively, with open interest changes of 231, - 9, and - 1541 respectively [2]. - **Spread**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 14, - 42, and 28 respectively, compared with the previous values of 21, - 50, and 29; for PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 4, - 43, and 39 respectively, compared with the previous values of 9, - 57, and 48 [2]. Raw Material and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film were 2280 yuan/ton, 6380 yuan/ton, 605 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6960 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Mid - stream**: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7150 - 7750 yuan/ton, 7050 - 7250 yuan/ton, and 7250 - 7550 yuan/ton respectively; for PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7000 - 7150 yuan/ton, 6950 - 7100 yuan/ton, and 7050 - 7200 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Information - On Monday (June 9), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for July 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $65.29 per barrel, up $0.71 or 1.10% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $64.20 - $65.43; the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for August 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $67.04 per barrel, up $0.57 or 0.86% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $66.07 - $67.19 [2].

2025年06月09日申万期货品种策略日报-国债 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | | 昨日收盘价 | TS2509 102.452 | TS2512 102.574 | TF2509 106.140 | TF2512 106.230 | T2509 108.925 | T2512 108.945 | TL2509 119.78 | TL2512 119.6 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.430 | 102.552 | 106.030 | 106.115 | 108.720 | 108.780 | 119.31 | 119.17 | | | 涨跌 | 0.022 | 0.022 | 0.110 | 0.115 | 0.205 | 0.165 | 0.470 | 0.43 ...