宏观 消息 行业 信息 评论 及策 略 涨跌不一，10年期国债活跃券收益率上行至1.673%。央行公开市场操作净回笼2191亿元，上周降低存款准备金 率0.5个百分点，向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元，下调7天期逆回购操作利率10bp，Shibor短端品种多数下行，市 场资金面继续转松。中美会谈取得了实质性进展，取消部分加征关税，双方一致同意建立中美经贸磋商机制，就各自 关切的经贸问题开展进一步的磋商，市场风险偏好提升。海外美国4月未季调CPI同比上涨2.3%，连续第三个月低于预 期，美债收益率回落。受外部冲击和季节性变化影响，4月制造业景气水平有所回落，出口（以美元计价）同比增长 8.1%，增速有所回落，但仍保持较强韧性，政府债券推动社融存量同比增长8.7%，M2余额同比增长8%，较上月增速均 有所加快。随着谈判取得实质进展，市场避险情绪逐步缓和，国债期货价格回落，短期波动有可能加大。 声明 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestically, the government emphasizes strengthening the domestic economic cycle, and the consumer market shows steady growth, indicating a stable economic foundation. Overseas, the global economic recovery is uneven, with the US economy strong but facing inflation, and Europe struggling with energy and supply - chain issues. The IMF has lowered the global economic growth forecast [1]. - For key varieties: - Crude oil prices are falling due to the expected US - Iran nuclear deal and a more relaxed supply - demand balance in the oil market [2][14]. - Shipping, especially the container shipping European line, has seen price rebounds due to the easing of Sino - US tariff frictions, with different trends for different contracts [3][35]. - Gold prices are affected by geopolitical negotiations, tariff wars, and Fed policies, currently in a correction phase [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Main News - **International News**: The Fed is considering adjusting its monetary policy framework. The US may face more frequent supply shocks and unstable inflation, and long - term interest rates may rise. The predicted April PCE in the US will increase by about 2.2% year - on - year [6]. - **Domestic News**: The State Council emphasizes strengthening the domestic economic cycle to hedge against international uncertainties and promote high - quality development [1][7]. - **Industry News**: The IEA predicts that the global oil demand growth will slow to 650,000 barrels per day for the rest of 2025, and has lowered the US shale oil production forecast [2][8]. 3.2 Foreign Market Daily Returns - The S&P 500 rose 0.41%, the European STOXX50 rose 0.60%, the FTSE China A50 futures fell 0.38%, the US dollar index fell 0.24%, ICE Brent crude oil fell 1.87%, London gold rose 1.98%, London silver rose 1.33%, and various other commodities had different price changes [10]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: Short - term positive factors such as policy support and tariff negotiation results are beneficial to the stock market. The valuation of major domestic indices is low, and stock index futures are expected to be bullish, while stock index options can use the wide - straddle buying strategy [11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: After the Sino - US talks, market risk appetite increased, and treasury bond futures prices fell with potential short - term volatility [12][13]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: Prices are falling due to the expected US - Iran nuclear deal and a more relaxed supply - demand balance [2][14]. - **Methanol**: Short - term bullish, with changes in domestic device operation rates and inventory levels [15]. - **Rubber**: Expected to be weakly volatile due to factors such as production area conditions and tariff policies [16]. - **Polyolefins**: After a phased rebound, they may oscillate at high levels, affected by macro factors and crude oil prices [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The market is reacting positively to the Sino - US financial talks. Glass inventory is slowly decreasing, and soda ash supply is relatively abundant, with both facing inventory digestion challenges [18][19]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are in a correction phase, affected by geopolitical and tariff factors, and the Fed's wait - and - see attitude [4][5]. - **Copper**: Prices may fluctuate widely, affected by factors such as processing fees, demand, and tariff negotiations [21]. - **Zinc**: Prices may also fluctuate widely, with expectations of improved supply and influenced by tariff negotiations [22]. - **Aluminum**: May be oscillating strongly due to the better - than - expected result of tariff negotiations, despite weakening short - term demand [23][24]. - **Nickel**: Prices may be oscillating strongly, with a mix of positive and negative factors in the market [25]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Prices are weak, with a supply - demand imbalance. Without large - scale production cuts, the price outlook is pessimistic [26]. - **Black Metals**: - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The black - metal sector is recovering due to macro - level positives, but the fundamentals of coking coal are deteriorating, and coke prices may face downward pressure [27]. - **Iron Ore**: Short - term support exists due to iron - water production and demand, but it may be weakly volatile in the later stage due to expected supply increases [28]. - **Steel**: The market faces a situation of increasing supply and weakening demand, with short - term exports stable but a potential seasonal decline in demand [29][30]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Oils and Fats**: Prices are falling due to factors such as the weakening of US biodiesel speculation, high palm oil production and inventory in Malaysia, and falling crude oil prices [31]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: US soybean prices are rising due to positive factors, but domestic supply is expected to increase, putting pressure on prices [32]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The market is in a short - term oscillation. Supply is expected to be tight in July, but high prices may affect downstream acceptance. There is an expectation of imported corn reserve auctions [33]. - **Cotton**: Spot prices are rising with improved macro sentiment. Supply is stable, and the market is bullish in the short - term due to tariff negotiations [34]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping European Line**: Prices have rebounded due to the easing of Sino - US tariff frictions. The 06 contract's volatility is expected to be limited, while the 08 contract may remain strong [3][35].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices may experience short - term wide - range fluctuations due to factors such as low concentrate processing fees, stable domestic downstream demand, and the need to monitor US tariff negotiations, exchange rates, inventory, and basis changes [1]. - Zinc prices may also have short - term wide - range fluctuations. With the expected improvement in concentrate supply and potential recovery of smelting supply, the previous decline in zinc prices has partially digested the production growth expectation, and factors like US tariff negotiations and exchange rates need to be watched [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be mainly oscillating strongly in the short term. Although the demand for electrolytic aluminum is weakening, the better - than - expected result of the Sino - US tariff negotiation has a positive impact [1]. - Nickel prices may follow the non - ferrous sector and show an oscillatingly strong trend in the short term, as there are both positive and negative factors in the nickel market [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Night - session copper prices closed. Low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices are testing smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and improving, with high growth in power investment driven by the power grid, continuous growth in household appliance production, and potential for increased copper demand in the automotive sector due to higher new - energy penetration. The narrowing decline in real - estate data is also a factor. Short - term copper price fluctuations are affected by US tariff negotiations, exchange rates, inventory, and basis [1]. - The domestic previous - day futures closing price data is unavailable. The domestic basis is 380 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 9,577 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is 39.74 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 184,650 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 925 tons [2]. Zinc - Night - session zinc prices closed higher. Concentrate processing fees have been rising recently. Domestic automobile production and sales are growing, infrastructure is growing steadily, household appliances are performing well, and the decline in real - estate data is narrowing. The market expects a significant improvement in concentrate supply this year and a possible recovery in smelting supply. The previous decline in zinc prices has partially digested the production growth expectation. Short - term zinc price fluctuations are influenced by US tariff negotiations, exchange rates, and smelting output [1]. - The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 22,900 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is 195 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 2,725 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is - 22.38 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 165,175 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 1,875 tons [2]. Aluminum - The night - session main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed down 0.07%. The Sino - US tariff negotiation result is better than expected, which is beneficial to non - ferrous demand and prices. Fundamentally, the future supply - demand of alumina is expected to be loose, but some manufacturers have low profits and are undergoing maintenance. Further decline in futures prices requires a continued weakening of bauxite prices and the resumption of production by alumina manufacturers. The operating rate of most aluminum - processing sectors has declined slightly, and there is an expectation of reduced downstream orders. However, due to the better - than - expected tariff negotiation result, Shanghai aluminum is expected to be mainly oscillating strongly in the short term [1]. - The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 20,290 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is 60 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 2,489 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is - 0.39 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 397,275 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 2,025 tons [2]. Nickel - The night - session main contract of Shanghai nickel closed up 0.16%. The supply of nickel ore in Indonesia is still tight, leading to rising nickel ore prices and cost transfer to downstream enterprises. The new Indonesian tariff policy may increase local nickel product prices. Precursor manufacturers have sufficient raw - material inventory and low purchasing enthusiasm, and nickel - salt enterprises have a production - reduction expectation, which may lead to a moderate increase in nickel - salt prices. Stainless - steel demand is mediocre, and prices are mainly oscillating. In the short term, nickel prices may follow the non - ferrous sector and show an oscillatingly strong trend [1]. - The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 124,400 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is - 2,160 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 15,799 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is - 191.87 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 199,146 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is 714 tons [2]. Lead - The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 16,905 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is - 160 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 2,005 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is - 4.83 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 250,675 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is 400 tons [2]. Tin - The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 264,900 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is 750 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 32,974 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is - 127.00 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 2,745 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 30 tons [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of palm oil in China is expected to improve, and the inventory may increase, leading to a gradual decline in prices [2] - The export prospects of US soybeans have improved, but the supply of domestic soybeans and soybean meal is expected to be sufficient in the second quarter, which will continue to put pressure on prices [2] - The overall price of edible oils has declined due to factors such as the weakening of the hype sentiment of US biodiesel and the increase in palm oil production and inventory [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Information - Brazil's Mato Grosso state achieved a record - high soybean yield in the 2024/2025 season, with an average yield of 66.3 bags per hectare, 14 bags higher than the recent average [2] - As the international palm oil price drops significantly, China's palm oil purchases have increased. It is expected that China will import 250,000 tons and 280,000 tons of palm oil in May and June respectively. Considering the compressed domestic consumption, the supply is expected to improve, inventory may rise, and prices will gradually weaken [2] - The weather in US soybean - producing areas is favorable for sowing. The USDA's supply - demand report is bullish, and the export prospects of US soybeans have improved. Domestically, the import of US soybeans is expected to increase, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to increase rapidly [2] Comment and Strategy - Edible oils showed a weak trend at night. The US 45Z clean fuel tax credit policy has been extended, but the hype sentiment of US biodiesel has weakened, and the price of US soybean oil has declined. The MPOB report shows that the production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil have exceeded expectations, and the overall price of edible oils has declined due to the drop in crude oil prices [2] - Protein meals fluctuated weakly at night. The weather in US soybean - producing areas is conducive to sowing. The USDA report is bullish, and the export prospects of US soybeans have improved. Domestically, the supply of soybean meal is expected to increase rapidly, and the sufficient supply in the second quarter will put pressure on prices [2] Market Data - **Domestic Futures Market**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil futures decreased, with declines of - 1.49%, - 1.66%, and - 3.15% respectively; the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures increased, with increases of 0.31% and 0.62% respectively; the price of peanut futures increased by 0.29% [1] - **International Futures Market**: The previous day's closing price of BMD palm oil futures increased by 2.82%, while the prices of CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal futures decreased by - 2.11%, - 5.52%, and - 1.47% respectively [1] - **Domestic Spot Market**: The spot prices of domestic soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil decreased, with declines ranging from - 1.33% to - 2.29%; the spot prices of soybean meal in Nantong and Dongguan decreased, while the spot prices of rapeseed meal in Nantong and Dongguan increased; the spot prices of peanuts remained unchanged [1] - **Import and Profit**: The import profit of Malaysian palm oil, US soybeans, and Brazilian soybeans decreased, while the import profit of Canadian crude rapeseed oil increased [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts for peanuts decreased, while the number of warehouse receipts for other varieties remained unchanged [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core View of the Report - The report suggests a bullish outlook for stock index futures and recommends using a long - straddle buying strategy for stock index options to capture the trend after direction selection. The short - term positive news such as the favorable policies on May 7 and the stage results of China - US tariff negotiations on May 12 are beneficial to the stock market. Currently, the valuation levels of major Chinese indices are still low, and it is cost - effective for medium - and long - term funds to enter the market [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts in different periods decreased compared to the day before yesterday, with declines ranging from - 0.67% to - 0.74%. The trading volume was between 3,433 and 59,965, and the open interest decreased from - 244 to - 11,402 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts in different periods increased, with increases ranging from 1.75% to 2.01%. The trading volume was between 2,516 and 48,329, and the open interest increased from 1,153 to 13,041 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts in different periods decreased, with declines ranging from - 1.10% to - 1.17%. The trading volume was between 5,256 and 58,925, and the open interest decreased from - 9 to - 12,886 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts in different periods decreased, with declines ranging from - 1.28% to - 1.40%. The trading volume was between 10,403 and 155,023, and the open interest changes ranged from - 15,638 to 722 [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts showed certain changes, with current values of - 35.40, - 18.40, - 97.80, and - 109.20 respectively, compared to previous values of - 35.60, - 20.40, - 102.20, and - 113.60 [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Indices**: The previous day's values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices decreased, with declines of - 0.91%, - 0.49%, - 1.45%, and - 1.68% respectively. The trading volumes and total trading amounts also changed to varying degrees [1] - **Industry Indices**: Among different industries, the energy, raw materials, industrial, optional consumption, major consumption, medical and health, real estate and finance, information technology, telecommunications, and public utilities industries all showed different degrees of increase, with increases ranging from 0.37% to 2.21% [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The basis of different contracts relative to their corresponding spot indices showed certain changes. For example, the basis of IF contracts relative to the CSI 300 index changed from - 4.26 to - 0.21 for the current - month contract, and the basis of IH contracts relative to the SSE 50 index changed from 2.22 to 0.50 for the current - month contract [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indices - **Domestic Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index all decreased, with declines ranging from - 0.68% to - 1.91% [1] - **Overseas Indices**: The Hang Seng Index decreased by - 0.79%, the Nikkei 225 decreased by - 0.98%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.41%, and the DAX Index increased by 0.72% [1] 5. Macroeconomic Information - The State Council held a work promotion meeting on strengthening the domestic large - scale cycle, emphasizing the importance of domestic economic stability. The Supreme People's Court and the CSRC jointly issued a guiding opinion to safeguard the high - quality development of the capital market. The top - level design for urban renewal in China was introduced. The Ministry of Commerce responded to the US's stricter restrictions on Chinese chips, and the Fed Chairman Powell considered adjusting the core content of the monetary policy framework [2] 6. Industry Information - After the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut on May 7, over a hundred bank wealth management products had their performance comparison benchmarks lowered, and the industry may face an "asset shortage." 19 FOF products issued liquidation warning announcements this year, with many experiencing significant scale shrinkage. The real estate industry in 2024 was still in an adjustment period, with only 11 out of the top 30 real estate enterprises achieving revenue growth. The domestic HarmonyOS ecosystem has a million - level talent gap, which is expected to widen in the next three years [2]

20250516申万期货品种策略日报-聚烯烃（LL&PP） | | lujm@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50583880 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | LL PP | | | | | | | | | 1月 5月 9月 1月 5月 9月 | | | | | | | | | 前日收盘价 | 7217 | 7500 | 7298 | 7094 | 7248 | 7161 | | 期 | 前2日收盘价 | 7259 | 7480 | 7339 | 7136 | 7220 | 7193 | | 货 | 涨跌 | -42 | 20 | -41 | -42 | 28 | -32 | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | -0.58% | 0.27% | -0.56% | -0.59% | 0.39% | -0.44% | | 场 | 成交量 | 41121 | 228 | 460827 | 19015 | 1 | 379584 | | | 持仓量 | 73716 | 1787 | 527579 | 44608 | 3078 ...

Report Information - Report Date: May 15, 2025 [2] - Report Issuer: Shenyin Wanguo Futures Co., Ltd. [2] Industry Investment Ratings The provided content does not mention any industry investment ratings. Core Views - For stock index futures, it is advisable to take a predominantly bullish stance, while for stock index options, a long straddle strategy can be used to capture the trending market after the direction is determined [2][8] - The price of Treasury bond futures has declined, and short - term fluctuations may increase [9] - The natural rubber market is expected to be in a weak and volatile state [10] - The short - term outlook for methanol is bullish [12] - Glass and soda ash are in a cycle of inventory digestion, and attention should be paid to their supply - demand digestion process and the impact of the overall commodity market on the real estate chain [13] - After a phased rebound, polyolefins may enter a high - level oscillatory consolidation phase in the future [14] - The fundamentals of coking coal continue to deteriorate, and for coke, there are expectations of a price cut [15] - Gold has entered a correction phase, and silver lacks upward momentum [17] - Copper and zinc prices may fluctuate widely in the short term [18][19] - Shanghai aluminum is expected to be in a slightly bullish and oscillatory state, while nickel may follow the non - ferrous metal sector and show a slightly bullish and oscillatory trend [20][22] - The overall price of edible oils has declined, while protein meals are in a slightly bullish and oscillatory state [23][24] - Corn and corn starch may enter an oscillatory phase in the short term, and cotton is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [25][27] - The freight rate of the European container shipping line may increase, and the 08 contract is expected to remain strong [28] Summary by Directory 1. Main News Concerns of the Day International News - Oil prices dropped on Thursday due to expectations of a possible US - Iran nuclear agreement and an unexpected increase in US crude inventories last week [5] Domestic News - The CSRC will launch a new round of capital market reforms and introduce a package of policies to deepen the reforms of the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market [5] Industry News - In early May 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises increased compared to the previous period, with different trends in various regions [6] 2. Closing Comments on Major Varieties Financial Futures - Stock index futures declined, but short - term positive factors are present, and the valuation of major domestic indices is low [2][8] - Treasury bond futures showed mixed performance, and short - term fluctuations may intensify due to various factors such as the progress of Sino - US talks and economic data [9] Energy and Chemical - Rubber prices declined, and the market is expected to be in a weak and oscillatory state due to factors such as the progress of the harvest season and inventory [10] - Crude oil prices dropped, and attention should be paid to the impact of low oil prices on US sanctions against Venezuela and Iran [2][11] - Methanol prices decreased slightly, but the short - term outlook is bullish [12] - Glass and soda ash futures are in a consolidation phase, and attention should be paid to their supply - demand digestion and the impact of the overall market [13] - Polyolefins are in a consolidation phase, and after a phased rebound, they may enter a high - level oscillatory consolidation phase [14] Black Metals - Coking coal and coke prices are affected by macro - favorable factors, but the fundamentals of coking coal are deteriorating, and coke prices may face a cut [15] Metals - Gold and silver prices declined, and they are in a correction phase [17] - Copper, zinc, and other metal prices may fluctuate widely in the short term, and attention should be paid to factors such as US tariff negotiations and exchange rates [18][19] - Shanghai aluminum prices rose slightly, and it is expected to be in a slightly bullish and oscillatory state [20] - Nickel prices declined slightly, but it may follow the non - ferrous metal sector and show a slightly bullish and oscillatory trend [22] Agricultural Products - Edible oil prices declined due to factors such as the extension of the US clean fuel tax credit policy and the MPOB report [23] - Protein meal prices are in a slightly bullish and oscillatory state due to factors such as the USDA report and Sino - US talks [24] - Corn and corn starch prices may enter an oscillatory phase in the short term, and attention should be paid to factors such as imports and demand [25] - Cotton prices are expected to be slightly bullish in the short term, and attention should be paid to factors such as new orders [27] Shipping Index - The European container shipping line showed a strong performance, and the 08 contract is expected to remain strong due to factors such as the easing of Sino - US tariff frictions [28] 3. Daily Views on Varieties The report provides a summary of the views on various varieties, including bullish, bearish, and neutral stances [29] 4. Daily Price Changes of Major Varieties The report presents the latest closing prices, price fluctuations, trading volumes, open interests, and other data of various varieties [30]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may experience short - term wide - range fluctuations. Zinc prices may also have short - term wide - range fluctuations. Aluminum prices are expected to be mainly oscillating strongly in the short term. Nickel prices may show an oscillatingly strong trend in the short term [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Night - session copper prices closed lower. Low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices are testing smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and improving, with high growth in power investment driven by the power grid, continued growth in home appliance production, and potential for new energy to boost automotive copper demand. The narrowing decline in real estate data is also a factor. Copper prices may fluctuate widely in the short term, and attention should be paid to US tariff negotiations, dollar and RMB exchange rates, inventory, and basis changes [1]. - The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 79,440 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 60 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price was 9,607 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 14.83 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 185,575 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was - 4,075 tons [2]. Zinc - Night - session zinc prices closed higher. Concentrate processing fees have been rising recently. Domestic automobile production and sales are growing, infrastructure is growing steadily, home appliances are performing well, and the decline in real estate data is narrowing. The market expects a significant improvement in concentrate supply this year and a possible recovery in smelting supply. The previous decline in zinc prices has partially digested the production growth expectation. Zinc prices may fluctuate widely in the short term, and attention should be paid to US tariff negotiations, dollar and RMB exchange rates, and smelting output [1]. - The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 22,900 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 215 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price was 2,765 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 22.27 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 167,050 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was - 900 tons [2]. Aluminum - The night - session Shanghai aluminum main contract closed up 0.67%. Sino - US tariff negotiations exceeded expectations, which is beneficial to non - ferrous demand and prices. Fundamentally, the future supply and demand of alumina are expected to be loose, but some manufacturers currently have low profits and are undergoing maintenance. For futures prices to fall again, a further decline in bauxite prices and the resumption of production by alumina manufacturers are needed. Recently, the operating rates of most aluminum processing sectors, except for the aluminum cable sector, have declined slightly, and the market expects a decrease in downstream orders. In the short term, the demand for electrolytic aluminum is weakening, but due to the better - than - expected tariff negotiation results, Shanghai aluminum is expected to be mainly oscillating strongly [1]. - The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 20,290 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 20 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price was 2,529 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 1.01 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 399,300 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was 0 tons [2]. Nickel - The night - session Shanghai nickel main contract closed up 0.92%. Nickel ore supply in Indonesia is still tight, leading to a continuous increase in nickel ore prices, which are passed on to downstream enterprises. The new Indonesian tariff policy may cause local nickel product prices to rise. Precursor manufacturers have sufficient raw material inventories and low purchasing enthusiasm, and nickel salt enterprises have production reduction expectations, so nickel salt prices may rise moderately. Stainless steel demand is mediocre, and prices are mainly oscillating. Fundamentally, there are both bullish and bearish factors in the nickel market, and nickel prices may follow the non - ferrous sector and show an oscillatingly strong trend in the short term [1]. - The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 124,400 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 3,300 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price was 15,871 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 195.59 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 198,432 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was - 84 tons [2]. Lead - The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 16,905 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 180 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price was 1,997 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 6.64 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 250,275 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was - 2,900 tons [2]. Tin - The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 264,900 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 1,170 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price was 32,814 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 73.89 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 2,775 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was - 15 tons [2].

报告日期：2025 年 5 月 15 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：中美经贸关系竞合窗口期 2025 年 5 月 15 日，中方宣布自即日起暂停对 28 家美国实体的出口管制措施， 同时美方同步撤销对中国商品 91%的关税，保留的 34%关税中 24%暂停加征 90 天。 这场"关税休战"标志着双方在芬太尼关税争端持续两年后首次达成竞合妥协，但 商务部昨日"发现一起查处一起"的强硬表态，以及美方仍保留 10%战略关税的举 措，揭示出博弈远未结束。 国内政策组合拳精准发力，央行降准释放万亿流动性与科技金融 15 条新政形成 共振。0.5 个百分点的全面降准叠加汽车金融公司定向降准，既延续了适度宽松 基调，又精准支持实体产业升级。值得关注的是，4 月企业新发贷款利率降至 3.2% 的历史低位，配合《促进科技金融发展意见》提出的全生命周期金融服务体系， 政策着力点正从总量刺激转向结构优化。 海外市场方面，特朗普政府的"交易艺术"展现新动向。在斩获卡塔尔 2000 亿美 元大单的同时，美国众议院推进数万亿美元减税计划，这种"左手贸易右手财政 "的组合策略无不体现其交易的风格。 当前中美博弈已进入"边打边谈"的新阶 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Views of the Report - The USDA report this month is bullish, boosting the soybean complex. The extension of the US 45Z clean - fuel tax credit policy benefits the US soybean oil, driving up the prices of the whole oil sector. However, the MPOB report shows that the production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil in April exceeded expectations, with the production increasing by 21.52% month - on - month, exports increasing by 9.62% month - on - month, and inventory increasing by 19.37% month - on - month. The palm oil market is under pressure due to the entry into the production - increasing season [2]. - For protein meals, the weather in US soybean - producing areas is favorable for sowing. The USDA report shows that US soybean production and ending stocks are lower than expected, and the improvement in Sino - US relations may increase US soybean exports. In China, the resumption of oil - mill operations has alleviated the supply shortage, and the sufficient supply of raw soybeans and soybean meal in the second quarter will put pressure on prices [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a. Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 7914, 8184, and 9438 respectively, with daily increases of 122, 230, and 64, and daily increase rates of 1.57%, 2.89%, and - 3.15% respectively. For protein meals, the previous day's closing price of soybean meal was 2914, up 28 (0.97%), and that of rapeseed meal was 2416, up 6 (0.25%). The previous day's closing price of peanuts was 8844, up 26 (0.29%) [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current spreads such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, and OI9 - 1 are 54, 26, and 149 respectively, showing certain changes compared with the previous values. The current ratios and spreads like M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, and M - RM09 are - 49, 217, and 367 respectively, also different from the previous values [1]. b. International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of international futures for BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 3827 (Ringgit/ton), 1076 (cents/bushel), 52 (cents/pound), and 292 (dollars/ton) respectively. Their daily increases were 37, 1, 1, and - 2 respectively, with daily increase rates of 0.98%, 0.09%, 1.06%, and - 0.54% respectively [1]. c. Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil are 8290 and 8260 respectively, with increase rates of 1.59% and 1.60%. The current spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil are 8750 and 8800 respectively, with increase rates of 1.51% and 1.50%. The current spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil are 9460 and 9450 respectively, with an increase rate of 0.64%. For protein meals and peanuts, the spot prices of Nantong and Dongguan soybean meal are 3020 and 3090 respectively, with increase rates of 1.00% and 0.00%. The spot prices of Nantong and Dongguan rapeseed meal are 2430 and 2390 respectively, with increase rates of 0.41% and - 0.42%. The spot prices of Linyi and Anyang peanuts are 7600, with an increase rate of 0.00% [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The current spot basis for various products shows different values. For example, the spot basis for Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 376. The current spot spreads such as the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil is - 480, showing changes compared with the previous values [1]. d. Import and Crushing Profit - The current import and crushing profits for near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, near - month Brazilian soybeans, near - month US West soybeans, and near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil are - 451, - 203, 11, - 112, and 401 respectively, showing changes compared with the previous values [1]. e. Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts are 10,870, 330, 1,727, 31,786, 31,278, and 1,500 respectively. The warehouse receipts for soybean oil have increased compared with the previous values, while others remain unchanged [1]. f. Industry Information - Indian vegetable oil imports in April were 891,558 tons, down from 1 million tons in March. Palm oil imports were 321,446 tons, down from 424,599 tons in March; sunflower oil imports were 180,128 tons, down from 190,645 tons in March; and soybean oil imports were 360,984 tons, up from 355,358 tons in March [2]. - HLIB maintains its average price forecasts for crude palm oil in 2025 and 2026 at 4000 Ringgit/ton and 3800 Ringgit/ton respectively, expecting the supply recovery led by Indonesia to limit the further rise of palm oil prices. The average price of crude palm oil so far this year is 4579 Ringgit/ton [2].