| | 1、央行公告称，12月19日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了562亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量562亿 | | --- | --- | | | 元，中标量562亿元。同时，以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展了1000亿元14天期逆回购操作。Wind数据 | | | 显示，当日1205亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放357亿元。 | | | 2、12月LPR报价即将公布。12月22日，中国将公布最新一期1年期和5年期以上贷款市场报价利率（LPR）。11月20日， 央行公布的数据显示，1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%，至今已连续六个月保持不变。市场普遍预计，本月LPR | | | 将继续持稳，若预测成真，将实现七连稳。东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青指出，今年年初以来出口持续超预期，加之 | | | 新质生产力领域发展加快，带动了国内经济走势稳中偏强，致使逆周期调节需求有所下降，货币政策因此延续稳健基 调。 | | 宏观 | 3、国务院常务会议对贯彻落实中央经济工作会议决策部署作出安排，要求加快制定具体实施方案，靠前发力抓落实， 确保"十五五"开好局、起好步。会议 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, a table shows the possibility of a bullish or bearish trend for various commodities [5]. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Macroeconomic Outlook**: The US November CPI data came in lower than expected, with the core CPI rising at the slowest pace since early 2021. This, along with the Fed's possible rate - cut in January, has influenced market sentiment. In China, the start of Hainan's full - island customs closure and policies in the PV industry are significant events [1][6][7]. - **Market Sentiment**: In the A - share market, a long - term bullish trend is expected due to policy support, capital inflow, and industrial development. Global capital flow and risk appetite may increase with the Fed's December rate cut. In the bond market, the loose monetary policy supports short - term treasury bond prices [10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1.当日主要新闻关注 (Main News on the Day) - **International News**: The US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 13 were 224,000, slightly lower than expected. The probability of a Fed rate cut in January rose from 26.6% to 28.8% [6]. - **Domestic News**: Hainan Free Trade Port officially launched the full - island customs closure, with a series of policies implemented. In the PV industry, relevant departments aim to curb cut - throat competition and promote healthy development [7]. 3.2.外盘每日收益情况 (Daily Returns of Overseas Markets) - The report presents the closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of various overseas market products on December 17 and 18, 2025, including the S&P 500, ICE Brent crude oil, and others [9]. 3.3.主要品种早盘评论 (Morning Comments on Major Commodities) - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index Futures**: With positive factors such as policy improvement, capital expansion, and industrial support, the A - share market's long - term bullish trend is expected to be consolidated. The Fed's rate cut in December may further boost market sentiment [10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rose slightly. The central bank's open - market operations maintained a loose money supply. The slow growth of the US core CPI and the possible Fed rate cut influenced the bond market [11]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports reached a two - and - a - half - year high in October. There are uncertainties regarding US sanctions on Russia's energy industry, and the overall downward trend remains [12]. - **Methanol**: The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants increased. Coastal methanol inventories declined, but imports are expected to increase. Short - term methanol prices are expected to be weak [13]. - **Rubber**: Overseas supply is increasing, while domestic supply is entering the off - season. Demand for all - steel tires is stable, and short - term prices are expected to fluctuate widely [14]. - **Polyolefins**: Futures prices are consolidating. Downstream demand has reached a high level, and short - term attention should be paid to cost trends and supply - demand digestion [15]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both glass and soda ash are in the process of inventory digestion. Glass inventory is decreasing faster, while soda ash needs more time. The real - estate industry's recovery in 2026 is a key factor [16]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices are volatile. The downward CPI trend provides room for rate cuts, and weak employment data supports further Fed rate cuts. The long - term upward trend remains [17]. - **Copper**: The concentrate supply is tight, and the smelting profit is at the break - even point. The global copper supply - demand is expected to turn into a deficit [18]. - **Zinc**: The zinc concentrate processing fee has declined, and the smelting output continues to grow. The overall supply - demand difference is not significant, and market sentiment should be monitored [19]. - **Aluminum**: In the short - to - medium term, the supply is stable, and demand is acceptable. As the holidays approach, the impact of weakening demand on prices should be watched [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Terminal demand is strong, but there is a risk of a seasonal decline. The short - term supply pressure is moderate, and the price may face a correction if the inventory reduction slows down [21][22]. - **Black Metals** - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The futures prices are oscillating. After a significant decline, the market is expected to stabilize with support from downstream restocking and winter demand [23]. - **Steel**: The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand. Short - term prices may rebound, but the medium - term outlook is weak [24]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is oscillating. Steel mills' profitability is declining, and they will maintain on - demand procurement. Short - term prices are expected to be slightly stronger [25]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: Brazilian soybean sowing progress is behind schedule, and US soybean exports are slow. The domestic market is supported by high - cost imports, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [26]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil prices are supported by export tax cuts, but inventory pressure remains. The supply of rapeseed oil is expected to increase, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate [27][28]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are expected to range - bound. Domestic supply is increasing seasonally, and the market is waiting for a recovery in sentiment [29]. - **Cotton**: Although there is a new cotton harvest, the sales progress is fast. The possible reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area and improved Sino - US relations support prices, but there is resistance at high levels [30]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC 02 contract declined. Shipping companies are trying to raise prices, but the cargo - booking pressure will increase before the Spring Festival, and the 02 contract may face adjustment pressure [31].

| 指标 | CNF到岸价: | | | 申万期货品种策略日报- | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 马来西亚棕 榈油:连续 | | 2025/12/19 | 油脂油料 | | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | | 李霁月（从业编号:F03119649；交易咨询号:Z0019570） | | | | | | | | lijy@sywgqh.com.cn | | | | | | | 豆油主力 | 棕榈油主力 | 菜油主力 | 豆粕主力 | 菜粕主力 | 花生主力 | | | 前日收盘价 | 7802 | 8368 | 8945 | 2747 | 2406 | 8844 | | 国 | 涨跌 | -20 | 26 | -5 | -9 | 5 | 26 | | 内 | 涨跌幅(%) | -0.26% | 0.31% | -3.15% | -0.33% | 0.21% | 0.29% | | 期 | 价差 | Y9-1 | P9-1 | OI9-1 | Y-P09 | OI-Y09 | OI-P09 | | 货 ...

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2603 | TS2606 | TF2603 | TF2606 | T2603 | T2606 | TL2603 | TL2606 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.442 | 102.482 | 105.850 | 105.855 | 108.010 | 108.040 | 112.25 | 112.5 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.434 | 102.468 | 105.840 | 105.840 | 108.005 | 108.025 | 112.14 | 112.33 | | | 涨跌 | 0.008 | 0.014 | 0.010 | 0.015 | 0.005 | 0.015 | 0.110 | 0.170 | | | 涨跌幅 | 0.01% | 0.0 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures are trading in a consolidative manner. On the spot side, prices of linear LL from Sinopec and PetroChina are stable, and prices of drawn PP from Sinopec and PetroChina are also stable. Fundamentally, the overall operating rate of the downstream demand side seems to have reached its peak, and demand is being steadily released. Previously, the market was driven by the weakness of crude oil and the overall commodity market, leading to a decline in polyolefin valuations. In the short - term, attention should be paid to whether the cost represented by crude oil can stop falling, the rhythm of upstream supply - demand digestion, and the future domestic consumption potential [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6433, 6476, and 6514 respectively. Compared with the prices two days ago, the changes were - 6, - 3, and 0, with corresponding price change rates of - 0.09%, - 0.05%, and 0.00%. The trading volumes were 56414, 420481, and 9818, and the open interests were 105482, 561776, and 13950, with changes of - 13837, 21649, and 1355 respectively. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 43, - 38, and 81, compared to previous values of - 40, - 35, and 75 [2]. - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6202, 6279, and 6303 respectively. Compared with the prices two days ago, the changes were 6, 25, and 16, with corresponding price change rates of 0.10%, 0.40%, and 0.25%. The trading volumes were 68916, 330436, and 8421, and the open interests were 142634, 523495, and 29696, with changes of - 23432, 4001, and 2464 respectively. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 77, - 24, and 101, compared to previous values of - 58, - 33, and 91 [2]. Spot Market - **Raw Materials and Semi - finished Products**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2177 yuan/ton, 5955 yuan/ton, 584 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6020 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively. Compared with the previous values, only the price of methanol futures and Shandong propylene changed, with increases of 18 yuan/ton and a decrease of 60 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Mid - stream**: The current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets for LL were 6500 - 6850 yuan/ton, 6400 - 6700 yuan/ton, and 6450 - 6850 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, the price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6100 - 6250 yuan/ton, 6050 - 6200 yuan/ton, and 6100 - 6350 yuan/ton respectively. Most of these prices remained unchanged compared to the previous values [2]. News - On Thursday (December 18), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for January 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $56.15 per barrel, up $0.21 or 0.38% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $55.88 - $57.03. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for February 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $59.82 per barrel, up $0.14 or 0.23% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $59.54 - $60.67 [2]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The copper price rose overnight. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although smelting output decreased month - on - month, it continued to grow overall. Power investment is stable, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance production is declining, and the real estate market is weak. Supply disruptions in mines have led to a shift in the global copper supply - demand outlook to a deficit [2]. - The zinc price rose overnight. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, the concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and smelting output continued to grow. The inventory of galvanized sheets is generally high. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance production is declining, and the real estate market is weak. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but the overall market sentiment in the non - ferrous sector needs attention [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Copper - Overnight price: Closed higher [2]. - Supply: Concentrate supply is tight, smelting profits at the break - even point, smelting output decreased month - on - month but still growing [2]. - Demand: Power investment is stable; auto production and sales are positive; home appliance production is negative; real estate is weak [2]. - Market outlook: Global copper supply - demand expected to shift to a deficit due to supply disruptions. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - Market data: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 92,720 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 165 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 11,743 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M) is - 9.80 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 166,600 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is 725 tons [2]. Zinc - Overnight price: Closed higher [2]. - Supply: Zinc concentrate processing fees declined, concentrate supply is temporarily tight, smelting output continued to grow [2]. - Demand: Galvanized sheet inventory is high, infrastructure investment growth is slowing, auto production and sales are positive, home appliance production is negative, real estate is weak [2]. - Market outlook: Overall supply - demand difference is not obvious, but attention should be paid to the overall market sentiment in the non - ferrous sector. Attention should also be paid to the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - Market data: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 22,970 yuan/ton, domestic basis is 75 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 3,072 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M) is - 21.57 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 95,550 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is 31,075 tons [2]. Other Metals (Aluminum, Nickel, Lead, Tin) - Market data: - Aluminum: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 21,865 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 130 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 2,906 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M) is - 47.69 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 519,600 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is 0 tons [2]. - Nickel: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 113,800 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 3,020 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 14,365 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M) is - 189.77 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 253,308 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 84 tons [2]. - Lead: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 16,735 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 80 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 1,961 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M) is - 47.19 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 268,450 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is 15,975 tons [2]. - Tin: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 328,600 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 7,610 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 42,275 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M) is - 18.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 3,815 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is 20 tons [2].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - Polyolefin futures declined slightly and stopped falling during the night session. The spot prices of linear LL and拉丝 PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. The overall operating rate of the downstream demand side seems to have reached its peak, and demand is steadily being released. Previously, the market was driven by the weakness of crude oil and the overall commodities, leading to a lower valuation of polyolefins. In the short term, attention should be paid to whether the cost represented by crude oil can stop falling, the pace of digestion of upstream supply and demand, and the future domestic consumption potential. It should be noted that the continuous decline may have already reflected the forward-looking expectations to some extent, and future market drivers need to focus on actual changes. [2] Group 3: Summary by Category Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6439, 6479, and 6514 respectively, with price drops of -77, -64, and -54, and declines of -1.18%, -0.98%, and -0.82% respectively. The trading volumes were 58405, 378254, and 8742, and the open interests were 119319, 540127, and 12595, with changes of -16584, 29984, and 2163 respectively. The current spreads between January - May, May - September, and September - January were -40, -35, and 75 respectively. [2] - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6196, 6254, and 6287 respectively, with price changes of 4, -2, and -4, and changes of 0.06%, -0.03%, and -0.06% respectively. The trading volumes were 80341, 302658, and 4948, and the open interests were 166066, 519494, and 27232, with changes of -29306, 21552, and 1019 respectively. The current spreads between January - May, May - September, and September - January were -58, -33, and 91 respectively. [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film were 2159 yuan/ton, 6015 yuan/ton, 594 US dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6020 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively. [2] - **Spot Market**: The current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets for LL were 6500 - 6850, 6400 - 6700, and 6450 - 6850 respectively; for PP, they were 6100 - 6250, 6050 - 6200, and 6100 - 6350 respectively. [2] News - On Wednesday (December 17), the settlement price of the WTI crude oil January 2026 futures contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $55.94 per barrel, up $0.67 or 1.21% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $55.20 - $56.98. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil February 2026 futures contract on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $59.68 per barrel, up $0.76 or 1.29% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $59.25 - $60.74. [2]

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2603 | TS2606 | TF2603 | TF2606 | T2603 | T2606 | TL2603 | TL2606 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.434 | 102.468 | 105.840 | 105.840 | 108.005 | 108.025 | 112.14 | 112.33 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.426 | 102.470 | 105.795 | 105.795 | 107.905 | 107.920 | 111.39 | 111.55 | | | 涨跌 | 0.008 | -0.002 | 0.045 | 0.045 | 0.100 | 0.105 | 0.750 | 0.780 | | | 涨跌幅 | 0.01% | 0 ...

报告日期：2025 年 12 月 18 日 申银万国期货研究所 品种观点 | | 偏空(可能性) | 偏多(可能性) | | --- | --- | --- | | 股指(IH) | | V | | 股指(IF) | | V | | 股指(IC) | | 1 | | 股指(IM) | | V | | 国债(TS) | | V | | 原油 | V | | | 曲壁 | V | | | 橡胶 | | √ | | 螺纹 | | V | | 热卷 | | V | | 铁矿 | | 1 | | 黄金 | | V | | 白银 | | 1 | | 铜 | | 1 | | 铝 | | > | | 碳酸锂 | | V | | 棉花 | | V | | 白糖 | V | | | 苹果 | V | | | 王米 | | √ | | 集运欧线 | V | | | | 特别提示:表格内容仅为可能性判断,并非确定性判断。请仔细阅读屋页"免责声明"内容。 | | 一、当日主要新闻关注 首席点评： 白银再创新高 全球白银市场正迎来历史性时刻，短短数周内开启连续刷新纪录的上涨行情。12 月 17 日，现货白银价格接连突破 65 美元/盎司 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various industries including finance, energy, metals, black commodities, agriculture, and shipping. It provides insights into the supply - demand dynamics, price trends, and influencing factors of different commodities and financial instruments, and offers expectations for their future performance. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1当日主要新闻关注 - **International News**: US November employment data showed 64,000 seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls, higher than expected. The market still anticipates two Fed rate cuts next year with a 58 - basis - point easing [6]. - **Domestic News**: The Social Security Fund Council emphasized learning the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference, including prudent fund investment, and planned for the "15th Five - Year Plan" of the social security fund. The postal industry's business volume and revenue in the first 11 months increased year - on - year, with express delivery business showing strong growth [7]. 3.2外盘每日收益情况 - Multiple overseas markets showed price changes on December 15 - 16, 2025. For example, the S&P 500 fell 0.24%, ICE Brent crude oil dropped 2.52%, while London gold rose 0.09% [9]. 3.3主要品种早盘评论 - **金融** - **股指**: A - share long - term bullish pattern is expected to be consolidated. Positive policies and Fed rate cuts may boost market risk appetite [10]. - **国债**: With loose market liquidity and expectations of further easing policies, short - term treasury bond futures are supported [11]. - **能化** - **原油**: SC night - session fell 2.24%. US gasoline prices dropped, and inventory data showed a complex situation. The downward trend is hard to reverse [2][12]. - **甲醇**: Short - term methanol is expected to be weakly volatile due to开工 and inventory factors [13]. - **橡胶**: Short - term rubber prices are expected to fluctuate widely due to supply and demand factors [14]. - **聚烯烃**: Short - term focus is on cost and supply - demand digestion [15]. - **玻璃纯碱**: Both are in the process of inventory digestion, and attention should be paid to industry changes and real - estate policy support [16]. - **金属** - **贵金属**: Short - term fluctuations do not change the long - term upward trend due to Fed policies and employment data [17]. - **铜**: Attention should be paid to supply - demand changes affected by factors such as dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [18]. - **锌**: Attention should be paid to market sentiment and factors like dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [19]. - **铝**: Short - term prices are expected to consolidate, and medium - to - long - term outlook is optimistic [20]. - **黑色** - **双焦**: Short - term, the market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to iron - water output, downstream inventory, and steel - mill profits [3][21]. - **农产品** - **蛋白粕**: US soybean prices are weak, and domestic prices may be pressured by future supply [23]. - **油脂**: Short - term, they are expected to fluctuate and consolidate due to palm - oil inventory and rapeseed supply [2][24]. - **白糖**: Short - term, it is expected to remain weak due to international and domestic supply - demand factors [25]. - **棉花**: Supported by sales progress, planting - area news, and macro factors, it is expected to be strong [26]. - **航运指数** - **集运欧线**: The market is affected by shipping companies' price - holding intentions and seasonal factors. Attention should be paid to shipping companies' cabin - opening in early January [27].