Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's remarks on pressuring Russia briefly boosted oil prices, but the energy - chemical sector remained relatively calm under the strong performance of crude oil. The market is waiting for the results of the July Politburo meeting and whether there are any demand - side policies exceeding expectations [1][2] - If the anti - involution description in the meeting is mainly aimed at emerging downstream industries rather than upstream, and there is no compulsion or expansion, the anti - involution hype may end [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Logic: Trump's remarks briefly boosted oil prices, but OPEC+ is accelerating production, and the supply pressure in the third quarter has increased sharply. The North American peak season is ending, and the U.S. refined oil has been accumulating inventory for two consecutive weeks, with future supply - demand pressure gradually emerging [3] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level中期 structure is oscillating/declining, and the hourly - level short - term structure is oscillating. It has reached the upper edge of the oscillation range, with short - term pressure at 520. The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities on the hourly cycle when there is a volume - increasing reverse - wrapping negative line below the pressure [3] Styrene (EB) - Logic: Supply and operation have increased, port inventory has been continuously accumulating, and actual demand has not improved. New device production is approaching, so the fundamental driving force is bearish [5] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is declining. After hitting a new low at the opening, it rebounded and oscillated. The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities on the 15 - minute cycle with a pressure level of 7400 [5] Rubber - Logic: Although the precipitation in Hainan and Southeast Asia has postponed the supply increase, the new round of typhoon is moving north, and supply increase is a certain path. The downstream tire inventory is at a historical high, so the demand is bearish. The current inventory is also at a high level [8] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level中期 structure is declining, and the hourly - level short - term structure is oscillating. After hitting a new low at the opening, it rebounded and oscillated. The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities on the 15 - minute cycle with a pressure level of 15100 [8] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: Supply device operation has increased, and production has rebounded. The downstream tire inventory is at a historical high, so the demand is bearish. Although the recent arrival volume of butadiene is low, the medium - term fundamental pressure is still large [13] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level中期 structure is oscillating/declining, and the hourly - level short - term structure is oscillating. After hitting a new low at the opening, it rebounded and oscillated. The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities on the 15 - minute cycle with a pressure level of 12000 [13] PX - Logic: Polyester operation continues to decline, demand expectations are pessimistic, supply operation is rising, and supply - demand is weak. It mainly follows the fluctuations of crude oil, which is expected to decline significantly [17] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is oscillating. After a short - term rebound with reduced positions, the strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities on the 15 - minute cycle with a pressure level of 6975 [17] PTA - Logic: Short - term supply - demand changes are small, inventory levels are not high, and short - term fundamental contradictions are not significant. It mainly follows the fluctuations of crude oil, which is expected to decline significantly [21] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is oscillating. After a short - term rebound with reduced positions, the strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities on the 15 - minute cycle with a pressure level of 4855 [21] PP - Logic: Downstream demand is sluggish, supply - side operation fluctuates slightly, but previous maintenance devices will restart and new production capacity will be put into use, so supply pressure is expected to continue. Inventory has been continuously accumulating, and the fundamental driving force is bearish [24] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is oscillating. After a small rebound with reduced positions, the strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities on the 15 - minute cycle with a pressure level of 7165 [24] Methanol - Logic: Domestic supply is at a high level, downstream demand is weak, port inventory is continuously accumulating, and short - term fundamentals are average. Attention should be paid to the cost side and recent sentiment drivers [27] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level中期 structure is declining/oscillating, and the short - term structure is declining. After a rebound with reduced positions, the strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities on the hourly cycle when there is a volume - increasing reverse - wrapping negative line [27] PVC - Logic: Supply has increased, demand in the off - season is still sluggish, inventory has been continuously accumulating, and the anti - involution sentiment has declined significantly. It should be treated bearishly [31] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level中期 structure is rising, and the hourly - level short - term structure is oscillating. After a rebound with reduced positions, the strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities on the 15 - minute cycle with a pressure level of 5210 [31] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: Operation has slightly decreased, demand is weak, and there are both short - term low - inventory and medium - term inventory - accumulation expectations. The anti - involution sentiment has declined significantly. It should be treated bearishly [34] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level中期 structure is oscillating/declining, and the hourly - level short - term structure is oscillating. After a small rebound, the strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities on the hourly cycle when there is a volume - increasing reverse - wrapping negative line [34] Plastic - Logic: Maintenance devices will restart in late July, operation is rising, downstream demand is weak, and the anti - involution sentiment has declined significantly. It should be treated bearishly [36] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level中期 structure is oscillating/declining, and the hourly - level structure is oscillating. After a small rebound, the strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities on the hourly cycle when there is a volume - increasing reverse - wrapping negative line [36]

情绪反转下,能化向下修复 | 品种 | 中期结构 | 短期结构 | 小时周期策略 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 震荡/偏 | 震荡 | 15 分钟寻试空机会 | | | 室 | | | | EB | 震荡 | 偏空 | 15 分钟寻试空机会 | | PX | 震荡 | 震荡 | 15 分钟寻试空机会 | | PTA | 農荡 | 震荡 | 15 分钟寻试空机会 | | PP | 農荡 | 農荡 | 15 分钟寻试空机会 | | 塑料 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 15 分钟寻试空机会 | | 曲壁 | 震荡 | 偏空 | 15 分钟寻试空机会 | | EG | 震荡 | 震荡 | 15 分钟寻试空机会 | | 橡胶 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 15 分钟寻试空机会 | | PVC | 偏多 | 震荡 | 15 分钟寻试空机会 | | BR 橡胶 | 偏空 | 震荡 | 15 分钟寻试空机会 | 板块观点汇总 行情日评: 今日 6 品种封死跌停,反内卷情绪大幅降温,前期驱动化工上行 的情绪反转,能化面临向下修复,同时成本端原油旺季尾声下供需压 力逐渐增大,能化仍延续此前基本面偏弱观 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy and chemical products, indicating that the market is currently influenced by sentiment, with most products showing a short - term bullish trend but facing different fundamental challenges. The overall sentiment is expected to cool down, and each product's trading strategy is based on its specific fundamentals and technical analysis [1][2]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Logic**: Currently in the consumption peak season, low inventory and strong demand provide short - term support. However, US crude oil processing volume and refinery utilization have peaked and declined, and the pressure of OPEC+ production increase will gradually materialize in the medium term [4][5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level mid - term structure is oscillating/declining, and the hourly - level short - term structure is oscillating. It closed above the 510 level today, and the short - term is expected to oscillate. The strategy is to stop loss on short positions and then wait and see [5]. Benzene Ethylene (EB) - **Logic**: The supply and operation are at a high level compared to the same period, and there is new production capacity to be put into operation. Demand has not improved, and the inventory pressure is high. The market's bullish sentiment is expected to cool down [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term structure is rising. It increased in volume and price today, and the short - term support level has moved up to 7485. Wait for the short - term support to be broken [8]. Rubber - **Logic**: Rainfall and typhoon speculation in Hainan's production area have made the spot price strong in the short term, and the warm macro - sentiment of commodities has supported the rubber price. However, the pattern of increased supply and weak demand in the medium term remains unchanged. The market's bullish sentiment is expected to cool down [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level mid - term structure is declining, and the hourly - level short - term structure is rising. It continued to rise today, testing the 15300 pressure level. The short - term support is at 15320. Wait for the support to be broken for short - selling opportunities [12]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The fundamentals are still poor. The tire inventory is high, the semi - steel tire operating rate is low on the demand side, and the high inventory of synthetic rubber is difficult to reduce due to high production on the supply side. There is also downward pressure on the cost side due to the commissioning of butadiene plants in the second half of the year. The market's bullish sentiment is expected to cool down [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level mid - term structure is oscillating/declining, and the hourly - level short - term structure is rising. It increased in volume and price today, and the short - term support is at 12150. Wait for the support to be broken for short - selling opportunities [17]. PX - **Logic**: The cost of crude oil is still weak. The summer demand is weak, the polyester production has decreased, the demand expectation is pessimistic, and the supply has recovered. The short - term fundamentals are weak. The market's bullish sentiment is expected to cool down [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term structure is rising. It increased in volume and price today, and the short - term support is at 6940. Wait and see [20]. PTA - **Logic**: The cost of crude oil is still weak. The summer demand is weak, the polyester production has decreased, the demand expectation is pessimistic, and the supply is at a medium level. The short - term fundamentals are weak. The market's bullish sentiment is expected to cool down [22]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term structure was declining but turned around today after rising above the 4850 pressure level. The strategy is to stop loss on short positions [22]. PP - **Logic**: The cost of crude oil is still weak. There are plans to put new plants into operation from July to August, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The downstream operating rate is low, and the supply - demand situation is weak. The market's bullish sentiment is expected to cool down [24]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term structure is rising. It decreased in volume and increased in price today, remaining strong. The short - term support is at 7130. Wait and see [24]. Methanol - **Logic**: The supply - side operation rate has declined but is still at a high level compared to the same period. The downstream demand is average, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. The fundamentals are weak. The market's bullish sentiment has cooled down today, and it did not follow the rise of coking coal, which is noteworthy [28]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level mid - term structure is declining/oscillating, and the hourly - level short - term structure is rising. It increased in volume and price today, and the short - term support is at 2455. Wait and see [28]. PVC - **Logic**: The short - term strong sentiment of coal has pushed up the production cost of chlor - alkali, providing short - term support for the PVC price. The demand in the fundamentals is still weak, and the inventory has continued to accumulate under high - level supply operation. The fundamentals are still weak. The market's bullish sentiment is expected to cool down [30]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level mid - term structure is rising, and the hourly - level short - term structure is rising. It increased in volume and price today, and the short - term support has moved up to 5255. Wait and see for now [30]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: The port inventory is at a historical low, and it is strong in the short term under the recent market sentiment. Pay attention to the time when the inventory turns to accumulation under the weak supply - demand expectation. The market's bullish sentiment is expected to cool down [32]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level mid - term structure is oscillating/declining, and the hourly - level short - term structure is rising. It increased in volume and price today, and the short - term support is at 4440. Wait and see [32]. Plastic - **Logic**: The operating rates of both the production facilities and downstream industries are at a low level compared to the same period. However, the previously shut - down facilities will gradually resume operation, and new production capacity is expected to be put into operation. The medium - term supply - demand expectation is weak. The market's bullish sentiment is expected to cool down [35]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level mid - term structure is oscillating/declining, and the hourly - level short - term structure is rising. It decreased in volume and increased in price today, and the short - term support is at 7425. Wait and see [35].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has a minimal actual impact on rubber, with only short - term emotional disturbances. The conflict is likely a military action, and the probability of further expansion is low as Thailand's military power far exceeds Cambodia's, and the conflict is near China [2]. - The energy - chemical sector is affected by market sentiment, with prices rising and then falling. Different varieties have different market trends and investment strategies based on fundamentals and technical analysis [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - Logic: In the short term, low inventory and strong demand support the price during the consumption peak season, but the peak of US crude oil processing volume and refinery operation has passed, and the mid - term pressure will gradually emerge with OPEC+ production increase [4][5]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillating/downward structure on the daily level, short - term downward structure on the hourly level. Today, it increased in volume and rebounded to test the short - term pressure at 510, but did not break through effectively [5]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle, and move the stop - loss up to today's high of 511 [5]. (2) Styrene (EB) - Logic: Supply and operation are at a high level, new production capacity is to be put into operation, demand is weak, and inventory pressure is high. The market's bullish sentiment has cooled [9]. - Technical Analysis: Short - term upward structure on the hourly level, oscillating today, with the support at 7375 still holding [9]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle [9]. (3) Rubber - Logic: Rainfall and typhoon speculation in Hainan support the short - term spot price, and the warm macro - commodity sentiment also helps. However, the mid - term supply will increase while demand remains weak, and the market's bullish sentiment has cooled [12]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term downward structure on the daily level, short - term upward structure on the hourly level. It rose today and then declined in the late session, with strong pressure at 15300 [12]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle for short - selling opportunities after the support is broken [12]. (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The fundamentals are poor. High tire inventory leads to low semi - steel tire operation rate, high supply and production result in slow inventory reduction, and the cost will decline with the commissioning of butadiene plants in the second half of the year. The market's bullish sentiment has cooled [16]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillating/downward structure on the daily level, short - term upward structure on the hourly level. It increased in volume and may return to the upward trend, with support at 11800 [16]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle for short - selling opportunities after the support is broken [16]. (5) PX - Logic: The cost of crude oil is weak, summer demand is weakening, polyester production is decreasing, demand expectations are pessimistic, and supply is recovering. The short - term fundamentals are weak, and the market's bullish sentiment has cooled [20]. - Technical Analysis: Short - term upward structure on the hourly level, increased in volume and reversed the short - term trend, with support at 6835 [20]. - Strategy: Stop the short - position loss and wait and see on the hourly cycle [20]. (6) PTA - Logic: The cost of crude oil is weak. Summer demand is weakening, polyester production is decreasing, demand expectations are pessimistic, and supply is at a medium level. The short - term fundamentals are weak, and the market's bullish sentiment has cooled [23]. - Technical Analysis: Short - term downward structure on the hourly level, increased in volume and tested the short - term pressure at 4850 [23]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle [23]. (7) PP - Logic: The cost of crude oil is weak. New plants are planned to be put into operation from July to August, demand is weak in the off - season, and downstream operation is low. Supply and demand are weak, and the market's bullish sentiment has cooled [25]. - Technical Analysis: Short - term upward structure on the hourly level, increased in volume and continued to be strong, with support at 7130 [25]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle [25]. (8) Methanol - Logic: Supply operation has declined but is still at a high level year - on - year. Downstream demand is average, and inventory is continuously increasing. The fundamentals are weak, the market's bullish sentiment has cooled, and it did not follow the rise of coking coal [27]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term downward/oscillating structure on the daily level, short - term upward structure on the hourly level. It decreased in volume and rose, with the short - term support moved up to 2455 [27]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle [27]. (9) PVC - Logic: The short - term strong sentiment of coal pushes up the cost of chlor - alkali production, supporting the PVC price in the short term. However, demand is still weak, supply operation is at a high level, and inventory is continuously increasing. The fundamentals are still weak, and the market's bullish sentiment has cooled [30]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term upward structure on the daily level, short - term upward structure on the hourly level. It decreased in volume, rose, and then declined with a long upper shadow in the late session. Pay attention to whether a double - top is formed on the hourly line, with support at 5095 [30]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle [30]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: Low port inventory and recent market sentiment support the price in the short term. Pay attention to the time when inventory turns to accumulation under the weak supply - demand expectation. The market's bullish sentiment has cooled [34]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillating/downward structure on the daily level, short - term upward structure on the hourly level. It increased in volume and rose, with support at 4440 [35]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle [35]. (11) Plastic - Logic: Both the operation of production facilities and downstream operation are at a low level compared to the same period. However, previously shut - down facilities will gradually resume operation, and new production capacity is expected to be put into operation. The mid - term supply - demand expectation is weak, and the market's bullish sentiment has cooled [37]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillating/downward structure on the daily level, upward structure on the hourly level. It decreased in volume and rose, with support at 7310 [37]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The agricultural product sector shows mixed trends. Soybean meal and live pigs prices decline, palm oil and sugar prices rise, while cotton, corn, eggs, and jujubes show fluctuating trends, and apples rise steadily. Each product's price movement is influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, international trade, and seasonal characteristics [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Price Movement**: The soybean meal 2509 contract drops significantly due to ample supply and long - position liquidation. The upcoming Sino - US economic and trade talks may improve soybean imports, and the domestic soybean meal supply increases with port arrivals and high oil - mill operation rates, leading to inventory accumulation over 1 million tons [1][2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract breaks below short - term moving averages, indicating a weakening trend. The strategy is to close long positions and hold light short positions, with support at 3000 and resistance at 3050 [2]. Palm Oil - **Price Movement**: The palm oil 2509 contract rises strongly, hitting a new high. Indonesian palm oil exports surge, with a 4.27% month - on - month decline in inventory in May and a nearly 50% month - on - month increase in exports. In June, exports increased by 30.5% month - on - month. The active promotion of the biodiesel plan and rising domestic import costs support the price [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract shows a strong upward trend above all moving averages, with a bullish moving - average arrangement and an expanding MACD red column. The strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 8980 and resistance at 9150 [3]. Live Pigs - **Price Movement**: The live pig 2509 contract drops sharply. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' stable - market policy dampens short - term production - reduction expectations. Weak demand, high temperatures, and increased alternative consumption lead to sluggish pork sales [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract breaks below short - term moving averages, indicating a weakening trend. The strategy is to close long positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 14280 and resistance at 14500 [5]. Cotton - **Price Movement**: The cotton 2509 contract oscillates with a negative close. The domestic commercial cotton inventory consumption accelerates, but potential quota increases may add to the supply. Import volume from January to June is 460,000 tons, a 74% year - on - year decrease. The downstream textile industry is in a slack season, with poor orders and rising finished - product inventory [7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract adjusts at a high level, with long - position liquidation. The price falls below the 5 - day moving average but is supported by the 10 - day moving average. The strategy is to close long positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 14090 and resistance at 14205 [7]. Corn - **Price Movement**: The corn 2509 contract fluctuates narrowly. The continuous auction of imported corn by the China National Grain Reserves Corporation has a shrinking transaction rate. Wheat substitution and the approaching spring - corn harvest pressure the price, while imports in June are 156,000 tons, an 82.7% year - on - year decrease [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract fluctuates around short - term moving averages. The strategy is to close long positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 2308 and resistance at 2330 [9]. Sugar - **Price Movement**: The Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract rises strongly, hitting a new high. The high sales rate during the summer consumption peak and low inventory support the price, but the expected increase in imported sugar is a resistance factor [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract stands above the moving - average system, with an expanding MACD red column. The strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 5825 and resistance at 5900 [11]. Eggs - **Price Movement**: The egg 2509 contract fluctuates narrowly after large swings. The supply side has high pressure from newly - laid eggs, but hot weather reduces laying rates and inventory is low at all levels. The demand peak is delayed, and the high futures premium limits the rebound space [14]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract enters a narrow - fluctuation phase after large - scale oscillations, with both long and short positions reducing. The strategy is short - term trading, with support at 3610 and resistance at 3652 [14]. Soybean Oil - **Price Movement**: The soybean oil 2509 contract oscillates upward, entering an uptrend. The strong performance of palm oil drives soybean oil up, but the high arrival of imported soybeans and rising inventory may limit the increase [15][17]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract rebounds above the moving - average system, showing a strengthening trend. The strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 8068 and resistance at 8198 [17]. Jujubes - **Price Movement**: The jujube 2601 contract first declines and then rises, showing an oscillating trend. New - jujube production is estimated to be 560,000 - 620,000 tons, a 20 - 25% year - on - year decrease, but the reduction is less than expected. The consumption is in the off - season, and inventory is higher than last year [18]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract oscillates downward with narrow fluctuations. The strategy is to close long positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 10360 and resistance at 10680 [18]. Apples - **Price Movement**: The apple 2510 contract rises steadily. The inventory is at a five - year low, with 704,500 tons as of July 23, a decrease of 101,500 tons from the previous period. The high price of early - maturing apples boosts market confidence, but weather risks exist during the fruit - expansion period [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract rises steadily above the moving - average system, hitting a new high, with an expanding MACD red column. The strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 7932 and resistance at 8014 [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The palm oil price has risen sharply due to expected positive monthly supply - demand data from MPOB, while the corn price continues to decline under the pressure of auctions and wheat substitution. Other agricultural products also show different trends based on their respective supply - demand and market conditions [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Palm oil has a strong upward trend as the market anticipates a positive monthly supply - demand report from MPOB due to falling production and strong export demand. Corn continues to decline under the pressure of continuous auctions of imported corn by Sinograin and the obvious substitution advantage of wheat for feed use. Soybean meal fluctuates weakly with increasing supply and inventory. Apples see an expanded decline due to the off - season and competition from summer fruits [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Palm Oil - The palm oil main 2509 contract has risen strongly to a more than 3 - month high. The market expects the MPOB monthly report to be positive as high - frequency data shows reduced supply and increased demand. Technically, it shows strength. The recommended strategy is to hold light - position long positions, with support at 8500 and resistance at 8700 [2]. 3.2.2 Corn - The corn main 2509 contract continues to reach new lows. Sinograin's continuous auction of imported corn and the substitution advantage of wheat for feed use put pressure on the price. Technically, it shows weakness. The recommended strategy is to hold light - position short positions, with support at 2300 and resistance at 2330 [3]. 3.2.3 Eggs - The egg main 2508 contract continues to decline due to high production capacity and supply. The egg - laying hen inventory is at a high level, and the demand is in the off - season. Technically, it shows weakness. The recommended strategy is to hold light - position short positions, with support at 3400 and resistance at 3450 [6]. 3.2.4 Pigs - The pig 2509 contract fluctuates and rebounds. The supply of suitable - weight pigs has improved, but there are still speculations about reduced July slaughter due to earlier piglet diarrhea. The demand lacks highlights. The recommended strategy is to hold long positions, with support at 14200 and resistance at 14400 [8]. 3.2.5 Soybean Meal - The soybean meal 2509 contract fluctuates and declines. Good weather in US soybean - producing areas and high domestic soybean arrivals lead to high supply and inventory. Technically, it shows weakness. The recommended strategy is to hold light - position short positions, with support at 2920 and resistance at 2945 [9][11]. 3.2.6 Soybean Oil - The soybean oil main 2509 contract rebounds, driven by the rise of palm oil. However, the abundant supply of imported soybeans and high inventory may limit the rebound. Technically, it shows weakness. The recommended strategy is to hold light - position short positions, with support at 7858 and resistance at 7966 [12][15]. 3.2.7 Cotton - The cotton main 2509 contract fluctuates and closes up, running at a high level. The continuous reduction of commercial inventory and low imports support the price, but the off - season in the textile industry restricts the demand. Technically, it shows an upward trend. The recommended strategy is to hold light - position long positions, with support at 13700 and resistance at 13900 [16]. 3.2.8 Sugar - The Zhengzhou sugar main 2509 contract continues to decline due to the pressure of long - position liquidation. The decline of the overseas raw sugar price and the expected increase in imported sugar put pressure on the domestic price. Technically, it shows weakness. The recommended strategy is short - term trading, with support at 5725 and resistance at 5767 [18]. 3.2.9 Red Dates - The red date main 2601 contract fluctuates and closes down, with a slight adjustment. The suitable temperature in the main production area is conducive to fruit setting, but the off - season in consumption and high inventory put pressure on the price. Technically, there is still adjustment pressure. The recommended strategy is short - term trading after closing long positions, with support at 10330 and resistance at 10560 [21]. 3.2.10 Apples - The apple main 2510 contract drops significantly. The off - season and competition from summer fruits lead to slow sales. Technically, it shows weakness. The recommended strategy is to hold light - position short positions, with support at 7600 and resistance at 7672 [22][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The energy and chemical sector remains weak. Most chemical products are currently bearish, with a preference for holding short positions. The "anti-involution" expectation has limited positive impact on the energy and chemical sector, and the overall outlook is still bearish [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Overall Sector - Most chemical products have a mid - term structure of either shock or bearish, a short - term structure of bearish, and the strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle. The "anti - involution" expectation has a potential positive impact on PVC, but its positive impact on the energy and chemical sector is limited [2] 3.2 Individual Products 3.2.1 Crude Oil - Logic: OPEC+ will increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in August, with an accelerated increase exceeding expectations, increasing the medium - term supply surplus pressure. However, due to the low inventory during the consumption peak season and the fact that the actual seaborne shipments of OPEC+ production have not increased significantly, the short - term bearishness is not obvious. The bullish factors are concentrated in the short term, and the bearish factors are concentrated in the medium term. Maintain the idea of shorting on rallies. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is in shock, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. The rebound today did not change the pressure, and there was a large amount of position reduction at the end of the session. The short - term market is still weak, with the short - term upper pressure level at 512. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [3] 3.2.2 Styrene (EB) - Logic: High device profits increase the supply expectation of styrene. The start - up has reached a recent high, and there will be greater supply pressure with the subsequent launch of new devices. The current inventory is turning to accumulation, and the bearish pressure is gradually being realized. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. There was an increase in positions and a decline today. Pay attention to whether it can break the support at the lower edge of the small - cycle shock range to accelerate the decline. The short - term upper pressure is temporarily focused on 7340. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [7] 3.2.3 Rubber - Logic: The natural rubber inventory has been accumulating against the season for 4 consecutive weeks. The "anti - involution" expectation puts more pressure on the terminal automobile and the currently over - supplied tire industry, and has no impact on rubber supply. High supply and weak demand are still the main tone of rubber supply and demand. Maintain the idea of shorting on rallies. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is in decline, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. There was an intraday shock today, and the short - term pressure level is still at 14100. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference at 14100 [9] 3.2.4 Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The demand side of tires still maintains a weak demand expectation. The start - up of semi - steel tires is likely to decline in the future under the huge inventory. After the subsequent launch of large - scale devices, the surplus pressure of butadiene will further expand. The "anti - involution" expectation has a greater impact on the terminal automobile and the over - supplied tire industry, and its impact on synthetic rubber supply is difficult to judge at present and is unlikely to have a substantial impact. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is in decline, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. After a large increase in positions and a long - negative line on Monday, today is a rebound with a reduction in positions, but the decline path remains unchanged. The short - term upper pressure level is temporarily focused on 11380. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [12] 3.2.5 PX - Logic: There is weak demand in the off - season. Although the inventory has been decreasing due to some device overhauls before, the profit has recovered significantly, and the device recovery expectation is strong. After the subsequent start - up increases, the fundamentals are expected to weaken under the weak off - season demand. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. There was an intraday shock today, and the market is still weak. The short - term upper pressure is temporarily focused on 6870. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [16] 3.2.6 PTA - Logic: In the off - season, the downstream polyester demand is average, and the polyester start - up is expected to decline. The supply is expected to increase as the PX device overhauls are restored. The fundamentals are expected to weaken. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. There was an intraday shock today, and it is still regarded as weak. The short - term upper pressure is temporarily focused on 4840. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [18] 3.2.7 PP - Logic: The PP level remains relatively high. The previously overhauled devices have gradually resumed, and there will be new capacity put into production later, resulting in greater supply pressure. The downstream start - up declines in the off - season, and the fundamentals are expected to be weak, so it is treated bearishly. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. There was an intraday shock today, and the market is still weak. The short - term upper pressure level is focused on 7140. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [20] 3.2.8 Methanol - Logic: On the supply side, the domestic start - up has declined, but it is still at a high level in recent years compared to the same period. The arrivals in June remained high, and the Iranian devices in the Middle East have restarted. Although the current shipments are small, the concern about the long - term import reduction has weakened. The downstream demand is average, and the port inventory has slightly increased. The supply - demand expectation is still regarded as bearish. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is in decline. There was an increase in positions and a decline today, and a new low was reached in the 15 - minute short - cycle. The recent market is still weak, and the short - term upper pressure is temporarily focused on 2430. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [23] 3.2.9 PVC - Logic: The downstream terminal demand remains weak in the real - estate downward cycle and is difficult to improve. The Indian BIS certification has been postponed to December 24, but no domestic enterprise has obtained the certification. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali on the supply side is low, but the start - up still maintains the same - period high. The supply - demand is weak, but the "anti - involution" expectation brings short - term positive expectations. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is in decline, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. There was an intraday shock today, and the upper pressure is temporarily seen at 4955. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference at 4955 [25] 3.2.10 Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: Domestic devices have resumed production, and ethane imports have recovered. The downstream polyester start - up declines in the off - season, and the bearish factors have not dissipated, but the currently low port inventory provides some positive support. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is in decline, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. There was an intraday shock today, and the short - term upper pressure is 4345. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [27][28] 3.2.11 Plastic - Logic: The downstream demand is weak in the off - season, and there are plans to put new capacity into production, so the supply - demand expectation is weak. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is in decline, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. There was an intraday shock today, and the upper pressure is temporarily focused on 7340. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [29]

生猪暴涨，政策引导养殖端去产能、降体重提振市场信心，月初 集团猪企出栏计划偏少，散户猪场跟风惜售，各地猪价上涨，推动生 猪期价暴涨，后市或持续强势特征。玉米大跌，小麦替代效应以及进 口玉米拍卖预期压制行情走低，多头平仓推动期价大幅下跌，后市料 偏弱运行。油脂强势上行，美生柴政策再传利好，推动美豆油走高， 带动国内植物油板块全线走高。豆粕走跌，油厂压榨量峰值，供应压 力令豆粕承压下行。 二、品种策略跟踪 （一）生猪：暴涨 焦点关注：生猪 2509 合约突现暴涨，受到各地现货猪价全面走 高的提振： 1.政策引导养殖端去产能、降体重等信号进一步提振市场信心， 集团猪企月初出栏计划偏少，缩量拉涨积极性较高，散户猪场跟风惜 售，市场适重标猪供应减量，二育前期中大猪陆续出清后，二育再次 进入集中补栏阶段，支持猪价上涨。但需求掣肘压力依然存在。 2.生猪主力 2509 合约突现暴涨，触及近三个月新高，期价站上 均线系统， MACD 红柱放大，技术转强。策略上空单平仓，逢低轻仓 多单，生猪主力 2509 合约支撑 14025，阻力 14400 生猪暴涨、玉米大跌 （二）玉米：大幅下跌 一、农产品板块综述 1.小麦上市后饲用替 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the overall industry investment rating Core Views - The energy and chemical sector remains weak, with most varieties showing a bearish outlook both in the short and medium - term, and the recommended strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [2] - The current market hype about "anti - involution" in the energy and chemical sector regarding "backward production capacity" and "orderly exit" should be treated calmly, as the impact on raw materials may not be positive [3] Summary by Product Crude Oil - Logic: After the Israel - Iran conflict ended, the geopolitical premium in crude oil was quickly squeezed out. Fundamentally, it is strong in the short - term due to low inventory and the US peak season, but there is a strong expectation of medium - term oversupply during the OPEC+ production increase cycle [4] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillatory structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trend is oscillatory today, with the short - cycle center of gravity slowly moving down. The short - term resistance level is temporarily seen at 507 [4] - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [4] Styrene (EB) - Logic: Styrene production starts remain at a high level, and demand is weak during the off - season. Inventory is neutral, and the fundamentals are weak, with an expected significant increase in production capacity due to new plant commissioning in the medium - term [8] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trend is oscillatory today without changing the downward path. The short - term resistance is temporarily at 7340 [8] - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [8] Rubber - Logic: In May, Thailand's mixed rubber exports and China's rubber imports increased year - on - year. Coupled with the sharp drop in the price of rubber latex in the Thai production area, the expected increase in supply is gradually being realized. On the demand side, the tire industry is in an overall over - supply situation, and the semi - steel tire inventory has reached a record high. The downstream demand outlook remains pessimistic [11] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward trend, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. The intraday trend is oscillatory today, with a late - session rebound testing the 14100 resistance. Pay attention to the outcome of the resistance level in the short - term [11] - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference at 14100 [11] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The fundamentals of synthetic rubber are extremely weak. In addition to the weak demand outlook in the tire sector, there will be a large amount of capacity put into production for the raw material butadiene this year. Currently, the operating rates of butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber have reached record highs, and there is a cost - collapse logic in the future [13] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trend is oscillatory today without changing the downward path. The short - term resistance level is temporarily at 11670 [13] - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [13] PX - Logic: After profit recovery, some PX plants have resumed production, and the operating rate has increased. The polyester demand side is weak, but the short - term fundamentals are not weak due to ongoing destocking [15] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trend is oscillatory today and is still regarded as weak. The short - term resistance is temporarily at 6870 [15] - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [15] PTA - Logic: There is an expectation of polyester production cuts in July, but PTA production starts have declined due to tight PX inventory. The short - term fundamental contradiction is not significant [17] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trend is oscillatory today and is still regarded as weak. The short - term resistance is temporarily at 4840 [17] - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [17] PP - Logic: The number of maintenance plants has increased, and PP production starts have declined. However, recently, the newly put - into - operation capacity has gradually increased, and the supply expectation is not weak. Demand is still weak during the off - season, and the short - term fundamentals are bearish [20] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trend is oscillatory today. The short - term resistance level is at 7140 [20] - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [20] Methanol - Logic: The domestic weekly methanol operating rate is 78.1%, reaching a new high in the past five years, and the supply remains at a high level. After the Israel - Iran conflict ended, the previously shut - down plants in Iran are expected to resume production quickly, and the import expectation is still strong. With high supply and weak demand during the off - season, the fundamentals are bearish [22] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward trend. Today, there is a rebound with reduced positions, but the volume is insufficient, and it is still regarded as weak. The short - term resistance is temporarily at 2510 [22] - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [22] PVC - Logic: The supply - side operating rate is at a historical median level, and the supply is the same as the same period last year. The downstream terminal demand is still weak, and the operating rate remains at the lowest level in the same period. The fundamentals are bearishly viewed [23] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it is regarded as a rebound with reduced positions. The resistance is temporarily at 4955 [23] - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference at 4955 [23] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The supply - side maintenance plants will gradually resume production, and the polyester production starts on the demand side have declined. The short - term fundamentals have weakened [27] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it is regarded as a rebound with reduced positions. The short - term resistance is at 4345 [27] - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [27] Plastic - Logic: The operating rate is lower than the same period last year, but the inventory is still high due to weak demand. The short - term fundamental contradiction is not prominent [30] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. The intraday trend is oscillatory today. The resistance is temporarily at 7450 [30] - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [30]

软商品调整、油脂震荡 一、农产品板块综述 USDA 公布的报告显示,美国旧作大豆库存略超市场预期,美豆 面积略低于预期,报告中性偏空,连豆粕震荡收阴,国内6月大豆压 榨量突破千万吨,豆粕供应充足,粕价承压。美国棉花播种面积远高 于市场预期,美棉期价大跌,带动郑棉调整,但国内棉花商业库存下 降,新棉上市前供应偏紧预期支撑棉价高位运行。郑糖受外盘下挫的 带动而回落,进口糖放量预期亦令郑糖承压。红枣强势上行,新疆高 温天气令新季红枣减产预期大增,助推红枣持续上涨。 二、品种策略跟踪 (一)豆粕: 震荡收阴,窄幅波动 焦点关注:豆粕2509 合约震荡收阴,窄幅波动,美国农业部播 种面积报告符合市场预期,对行情影响有限: 1. 美国农业部报告显示,2025年美国大豆播种面积 8338万英 亩,低于 3月份预测的 8349.5万英亩,比上年同期减少 4.2%,略低 于市场预期。季度库存报告显示,截至6月1日美国大豆库存总量为 10.08 亿蒲式耳,高于市场的预期,比去年同期增长 3.9%,有偏空影 响。 目前国内进口大豆充沛,6月全国油厂大豆压榨量突破 1000万 吨,7月份大豆到港同样庞大,高压榨将延续千万吨级别,豆粕 ...