Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The energy and chemical sector remains weak in a volatile market. For various energy and chemical products such as crude oil, styrene, rubber, etc., the short - term and medium - term outlooks are mostly bearish, and the recommended strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [1][2]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Logic**: After the end of the Israel - Iran conflict, the geopolitical premium in crude oil was quickly squeezed out. Fundamentally, it is strong in the short - term due to low inventory, but there is a strong expectation of medium - term oversupply under the OPEC+ production increase cycle [1]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level medium - term structure is in a volatile state, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in a downward trend. Today, it fluctuated within the day, and the short - cycle center of gravity is slowly moving down. The short - term resistance level is temporarily seen at 507. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [1][3]. Styrene (EB) - **Logic**: Styrene production remains at a high level, and demand is weak during the off - season. Inventory is at a neutral level, and the fundamentals are weak. There is an expectation of a significant increase in production capacity due to new plant commissioning in the medium term [7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term structure is in a downward trend. It fluctuated within the day today without changing the downward path. After a large - scale gap reversal, the short - term resistance is not standard, and temporarily pay attention to 7340. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [7]. Rubber - **Logic**: In May, Thailand's exports of mixed rubber increased significantly year - on - year, and China's rubber imports also increased year - on - year. Coupled with a sharp drop in the price of latex in the Thai production area, the expectation of increased supply is gradually being realized. On the demand side, the tire industry is in an overall over - supply situation, and the inventory of semi - steel tires has reached a historical high. The downstream demand expectation remains pessimistic. The reverse - seasonal inventory build - up of rubber inventory says it all [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level medium - term structure is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level structure is also in a downward trend. It fluctuated within the day today, and there was a rebound at the end of the session to test the 14100 resistance again. Pay attention to the gain or loss of the short - term resistance level. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 14100 [8]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The fundamentals of synthetic rubber are extremely weak. In addition to the weak demand expectation in the tire sector, there will be a large amount of production capacity of raw material butadiene plants put into operation this year. Currently, the operating rates of butadiene and cis - polybutadiene rubber have both reached historical highs, and there is a logic of cost collapse in the later stage [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level medium - term structure and the hourly - level short - term structure are both in a downward trend. It fluctuated within the day today without changing the downward path. The short - term resistance level is temporarily seen at 11670. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [12]. PX - **Logic**: Profits have recovered, and some PX plants have resumed production, with the operating rate increasing. The polyester demand side is weak, but due to the ongoing destocking, the short - term fundamentals are not weak [14]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term structure is in a downward trend. It fluctuated within the day today and is still regarded as weak. The short - term resistance is temporarily seen at 6870. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [14]. PTA - **Logic**: There is an expectation of a reduction in polyester production in July. Due to the tight PX inventory, the PTA operating rate has declined, and the short - term fundamental contradiction is not significant [16]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term structure is in a downward trend. It fluctuated within the day today and is still regarded as weak. The short - term resistance is temporarily seen at 4840. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [16]. PP - **Logic**: The number of maintenance plants has increased, and the PP operating rate has declined. However, the newly put - into - operation production capacity has gradually increased recently, and the supply expectation is not weak. Demand is still weak during the off - season, and the short - term fundamentals are bearish [18]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term structure is in a downward trend. It fluctuated within the day today. After reaching a new low in the small cycle, the short - term resistance level has moved down to 7140. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [18]. Methanol - **Logic**: The domestic weekly methanol operating rate is 78.1%, reaching a new high in the past five years, and the supply remains at a high level. With the end of the Israel - Iran conflict, the previously shut - down plants in Iran will quickly resume, and the import expectation is still not weak. Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak during the off - season, so the fundamentals are bearish [21]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level medium - term structure is in a downward trend. It fluctuated within the day today, with weakening trading volume, and is still regarded as weak. The short - term resistance is temporarily seen at 2510. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [21]. PVC - **Logic**: The supply - side operating rate is at a historical medium level, and the supply is the same as the same period last year. The downstream terminal demand is still weak, and the operating rate remains at the lowest level in the same period. The fundamentals are regarded as bearish [23]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level medium - term structure and the hourly - level short - term structure are both in a downward trend. The increase in positions and decline today may further confirm the end of the rebound. The resistance is temporarily seen at 4955. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 4955 [23]. EG - **Logic**: The supply - side maintenance plants will gradually resume, and the polyester operating rate on the demand side has declined. The short - term fundamentals have weakened [26]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level medium - term structure and the hourly - level short - term structure are both in a downward trend. It fluctuated within the day today. The short - term resistance is 4345. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [26]. Plastic - **Logic**: The operating rate is lower than the same period last year, but the inventory is still high due to weak demand. The short - term fundamental contradiction is not prominent [28]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level medium - term structure and the hourly - level short - term structure are both in a downward trend. It fluctuated within the day today. The resistance is temporarily seen at 7450. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [28].

能化延续偏弱对待 行情日评: 图 1. 1: 原油 2508 日线图 数据来源：天富期货研询部、文华财经 Ho Hidrive (一) 原油: 逻辑:以伊冲突结束后,原油快速挤出地缘溢价,基本面短期低 库存下偏强,但OPEEC+增产周期下中期过剩预期强烈。 板块观点汇总 小时周期策略 品种 中期结构 短期结构 偏空 震荡/偏 原油 空单持有 空 震荡 空单持有 EB 偏空 PX 偏空 偏空 空单持有 偏空 偏空 空单持有 PTA 震荡 偏空 空单持有 PP 震荡 塑料 偏空 空单持有 震荡 偏空 空单持有 甲醇 震荡 偏空 EG 空单持有 偏空 偏空 橡胶 空单持有 偏空 偏空 空单进场 PVC BR 橡胶 偏空 偏空 空单持有 日度技术追踪:原油日线级别中期震荡结构,小时级别短期下跌 结构。今日减仓震荡,短周期重心缓慢下移,上方短期压力位暂看 512一线。策略上小时周期空单持有。 l | t G S S B S E BEEEEEEE !!!!!!!!! the lind of the first of the firm of the may be 数据来源：天富期货研询部、文华财经 图 1. 2: 原油 2 ...

Report Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The agricultural products sector shows mixed performance. Soybean meal rebounds from a low level, while oils fluctuate. Hog prices decline, sugar continues to rise, and other products also present different trends influenced by various factors such as supply - demand relationships, seasonal factors, and upcoming reports [1]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - The 2509 contract rebounds from a low level as short - covering occurs before the USDA report. However, with abundant domestic imported soybeans, high oil - mill operation rates, and increasing supply and inventory, the futures price is still under pressure. Technically, it remains weak, and a light - short - position strategy is recommended with support at 2942 and resistance at 2974 [2]. Soybean Oil - The 2509 contract shows a volatile trend of first decline then rise, waiting for the US soybean planting report. Domestic soybean imports and oil - mill压榨量 are high, leading to relatively loose supply and rising inventory, pressuring the futures price. Technically, it turns weak, and a light - short - position strategy is suggested with support at 7920 and resistance at 8012 [3]. Palm Oil - The 2509 contract first declines then rises, narrowing the decline. Crude oil decline, increased Malaysian palm oil production, and slow exports, along with falling domestic import costs and inventory accumulation, pressure the price. Technically, it is weak, and a light - short - position strategy is recommended with support at 8256 and resistance at 8380 [6]. Cotton - The 2509 contract rises then falls as long - profit - taking occurs. Xinjiang's de - stocking and low imports support the price, but the textile off - season, few new orders, and reduced spinning - mill开机率 limit the upside. Technically, it remains strong, and a light - long - position strategy on dips is advised with support at 13695 and resistance at 13920 [7][9]. Sugar - The 2509 contract continues to rise in a volatile manner, boosted by the rebound of ICE raw sugar due to possible lower Brazilian production in June and the domestic consumption peak season. With low inventory and slow imports, the price is supported. Technically, it is strong, and a long - position strategy on dips is continued with support at 5780 [10]. Hog - The 2509 contract drops significantly from a high level. High inventory and reduced demand due to rising temperatures, increased substitute consumption, and school holidays pressure the price. Technically, it turns weak, and long - positions should be closed with support at 13750 and resistance at 13970 [12]. Egg - The 2508 contract opens low and closes high, showing a volatile rebound. Market speculation on lower summer egg - laying rates may reduce supply pressure, but the high egg - laying hen inventory and cautious trading limit the upside. Technically, short - positions should be closed with support at 3500 and resistance at 3574 [14]. Corn - The 2509 contract fluctuates narrowly. Tight supply from low grassroots grain and wheat support are offset by import auction expectations and wheat substitution, resulting in a narrow - range market. A short - term trading strategy is recommended with support at 2370 and resistance at 2386 [17]. Red Date - The 2509 contract falls from a high level. High - temperature weather in Xinjiang may reduce production, but the traditional off - season and increasing inventory lead to a high - level adjustment. Technically, there is callback pressure, and long - positions should be reduced with support at 9500 and resistance at 9700 [18][20]. Apple - The 2510 contract shows a volatile negative trend. The expected production reduction did not materialize, but low inventory supports the price while substitute fruits impact consumption. A short - term trading strategy is recommended with support at 7646 and resistance at 7780 [21].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a generally bearish outlook for the energy and chemical sector, indicating a weak stance towards the industry [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical sector should be treated with a weak outlook Overall, most products in the sector are recommended to hold short - positions based on fundamental and technical analyses [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Logic: After the end of the Israel - Iran conflict, geopolitical premiums were quickly squeezed out. Fundamentally, it is strong in the short - term due to low inventory but has a strong expectation of medium - term oversupply under the OPEC+ production increase cycle [2] - Technical Analysis: Daily - level medium - term oscillation, hourly - level short - term decline. Today, it oscillated with reduced positions, and the short - cycle center of gravity slowly moved down. The short - term resistance level is temporarily seen at 512. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [4] Styrene (EB) - Logic: Styrene production remains at a high level, demand is weak in the off - season, inventory is neutral, and there is an expectation of a significant increase in production capacity with new plant launches in the medium term [7] - Technical Analysis: Hourly - level short - term decline. Today, it oscillated intraday without changing the downward path. After a large gap reversal, the short - term resistance is not standard, and temporarily focus on 7340. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [7] Rubber - Logic: In May, Thailand's exports of mixed rubber increased by 144% year - on - year, and China's rubber imports also increased significantly. Coupled with the sharp drop in the price of rubber latex in the Thai production area, the expectation of increased supply is gradually being realized. The tire industry is in an overall oversupply situation, and the inventory of semi - steel tires has reached a historical high. The downstream demand expectation remains pessimistic [9] - Technical Analysis: Daily - level medium - term decline, hourly - level decline. Today, it tested the resistance and then declined with reduced positions, still on a downward path. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference at 14100 [9] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The fundamentals of synthetic rubber are extremely weak. In addition to the weak demand expectation in the tire sector, there will be a large amount of production capacity put into operation for raw material butadiene plants this year. Currently, the operating rates of butadiene and cis - polybutadiene rubber have reached historical highs, and there is a logic of cost collapse in the later stage [12] - Technical Analysis: Daily - level medium - term decline, hourly - level short - term decline. Today, it rose and then fell, oscillating intraday without changing the downward path. The short - term resistance level is temporarily focused on 11670. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [12] PX - Logic: Profit has been repaired, some PX plants have resumed production, and the operating rate has increased. The polyester demand is weak, but the short - term fundamentals are not weak due to ongoing destocking [14] - Technical Analysis: Hourly - level short - term decline. Today, it rose and then fell, remaining in a downward structure after failing to break through the resistance. The short - term resistance is temporarily focused on 6870. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [14] PTA - Logic: There is an expectation of reduced production in the polyester industry in July, but the PTA operating rate has declined due to tight PX inventory. There are not many short - term fundamental contradictions [18] - Technical Analysis: Hourly - level short - term decline. Today, it rose and then fell, remaining in a downward structure after failing to break through the resistance. The short - term resistance is temporarily focused on 4840. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [18] PP - Logic: The number of maintenance plants has increased, and the PP operating rate has declined. However, the newly added production capacity has gradually increased recently, so the supply expectation is not weak. Demand is still weak in the off - season, and the short - term fundamentals are bearish [20] - Technical Analysis: Hourly - level short - term decline. Today, it declined with reduced positions, continuing the weak trend. The short - term resistance is temporarily focused on 7290. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [20] Methanol - Logic: The domestic weekly methanol operating rate is 78.1%, reaching a new high in the past five years, and the supply remains high. With the end of the Israel - Iran conflict, the previously shut - down plants in Iran will quickly resume production, and the import expectation is still strong. Supply is high, demand is weak in the off - season, and the fundamentals are bearish [22] - Technical Analysis: Daily - level medium - term decline. Today, it declined with reduced positions without changing the downward path. The short - term resistance is temporarily focused on 2510. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [22] PVC - Logic: The supply - side operating rate is at a historical median, and the supply is the same as the same period last year. The downstream terminal demand is still weak, and the operating rate remains at the lowest level in the same period. The fundamentals are bearish [25] - Technical Analysis: Daily - level medium - term decline, hourly - level short - term decline. Today, it tested the resistance and then rose and fell. There is an opportunity to enter a short position on the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference at 4955 [25] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The maintenance plants on the supply side will gradually resume production, and the polyester operating rate on the demand side has declined. The short - term fundamentals have weakened [28] - Technical Analysis: Daily - level medium - term decline, hourly - level short - term decline. Today, it oscillated intraday, and the short - term resistance is 4345. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [28] Plastic - Logic: There is pressure from large - scale plant launches in the medium term, and the expectation of increased supply is large. The medium - term view is bearish [30] - Technical Analysis: Daily - level medium - term decline, hourly - level decline. Today, it oscillated intraday, and the resistance is temporarily focused on 7450. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The agricultural products sector shows a mixed performance. Soybean meal rebounds from a low level, but the upward space is limited. Oils and fats fluctuate, with palm oil under pressure. Live pigs fall, sugar continues to rise, and other products also have different market trends [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Soybean meal rebounds from a low level due to short - covering before the USDA report, but the supply is abundant and the price is still under pressure. Oils and fats fluctuate, with palm oil affected by production growth and export slowdown. Live pigs decline due to weak demand. Sugar continues to rise supported by external market rebound and domestic consumption season [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Soybean Meal - The 2509 contract rebounds from a low level as shorts cover before the USDA report. However, the domestic supply is abundant, and the futures price is still under pressure. Technically, it is weak, and a light - short position strategy is recommended, with support at 2942 and resistance at 2974 [2]. 3.2.2 Soybean Oil - The 2509 contract first declines and then rises, waiting for the US soybean planting report. Domestic supply is relatively loose, and the futures price is under pressure. Technically, it turns weak, and a light - short position strategy is recommended, with support at 7920 and resistance at 8012 [3]. 3.2.3 Palm Oil - The 2509 contract first declines and then rises, reducing the decline. Affected by factors such as crude oil and palm oil production and exports, the price is under pressure. Technically, it is weak, and a light - short position strategy is recommended, with support at 8256 and resistance at 8380 [6]. 3.2.4 Cotton - The 2509 contract rises and then falls as long - profit taking occurs. Although Xinjiang's supply is tight, the textile market is in a off - season, limiting the price increase. Technically, it is still strong, and a light - long position strategy on dips is recommended, with support at 13695 and resistance at 13920 [7][9]. 3.2.5 Sugar - The 2509 contract continues to rise, supported by the external market rebound and domestic consumption season. The inventory is low, and the import pressure is controllable. Technically, it is strong, and a long - position strategy on dips is recommended, with support at 5780 [10]. 3.2.6 Live Pigs - The 2509 contract drops significantly from a high level due to high inventory and weak demand. Technically, it turns weak, and long - positions should be closed, with support at 13750 and resistance at 13970 [12]. 3.2.7 Eggs - The 2508 contract opens low and closes high, with the market speculating on the decline in summer egg - laying rate. However, the high inventory and cautious purchasing by traders limit the rebound space. Technically, short - positions should be closed, with support at 3500 and resistance at 3574 [14]. 3.2.8 Corn - The 2509 contract fluctuates narrowly due to the lack of market news. Supply is tight, but there are also factors suppressing the price. A short - term trading strategy is recommended, with support at 2370 and resistance at 2386 [17]. 3.2.9 Red Dates - The 2509 contract falls from a high level. High - temperature weather may reduce the yield, but it is the off - season, and the inventory increases slightly. Technically, there is a callback pressure, and long - positions should be reduced, with support at 9500 and resistance at 9700 [18][20]. 3.2.10 Apples - The 2510 contract fluctuates. The previous production reduction expectation fails, and the low inventory supports the price, but the consumption is affected by substitute fruits. A short - term trading strategy is recommended, with support at 7646 and resistance at 7780 [21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The cease - fire between Israel and Iran led to the dissipation of geopolitical premiums in the energy and chemical sectors. The markets returned to the mid - term supply - demand logic, presenting opportunities for short positions. Whether to enter the market depends on individual risk tolerance [3][5]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: After the cease - fire, geopolitical premiums were squeezed out, and the market returned to the mid - term oversupply supply - demand logic [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: Mid - term oscillatory structure on the daily level, short - term downward structure on the hourly level. There was a sharp decline and a short - term break in the trend today. - **Strategy**: There was an opportunity to enter short positions when the price broke through in the early morning with Iran's symbolic attack. The stop - loss was set at the 572 level [5]. (2) Styrene (EB) - **Logic**: The operating rate of styrene increased rapidly to 79%, with ample supply, weak downstream demand, and a possible shift to inventory accumulation. It was still easily affected by large fluctuations in crude oil prices [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: Short - term downward structure on the hourly level, with a break in the trend today. - **Strategy**: There were opportunities to enter short positions when the price broke through last night or when the cease - fire was announced this morning [8]. (3) Rubber - **Logic**: In May, the export volume of Thai mixed rubber increased significantly year - on - year, and the supply increase expectation was gradually realized. Tire operating rates declined, inventories were high, and downstream demand expectations remained pessimistic [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: Mid - term downward structure on the daily level, short - term downward structure on the hourly level. There was an increase in trading volume and a decline today, returning to the downward structure. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions, with a stop - loss reference of 14000 [11]. (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The fundamental situation was one of high supply, weak demand, and large inventory pressure. Raw material butadiene would still be under pressure, and demand was extremely weak. It was easily affected by large fluctuations in crude oil prices [15]. - **Technical Analysis**: Mid - term and short - term downward structures on the daily and hourly levels respectively, with a break in the trend today. - **Strategy**: Try short positions after the cease - fire was announced this morning [15]. (5) PX - **Logic**: Supported by downstream demand, PX continued to reduce inventory, with a short - term strong fundamental situation. It was more affected by crude oil price fluctuations recently [19]. - **Technical Analysis**: Short - term downward structure on the hourly level, with a break in the trend today. - **Strategy**: Try short positions after the cease - fire was announced this morning [19]. (6) PTA - **Logic**: Previously shut - down PTA units were gradually restarting, polyester demand was weak, and the fundamental situation had weakened. It was more easily affected by crude oil price fluctuations in the short term [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: Short - term downward structure on the hourly level, with a break in the trend today. - **Strategy**: Try short positions after the cease - fire was announced this morning [20]. (7) PP - **Logic**: The operating rate of PP units increased, supply was under pressure, and terminal demand was weak. The supply expectations of raw materials methanol and propane were affected by the Israel - Iran conflict [22]. - **Technical Analysis**: Short - term downward structure on the hourly level, with a break in the trend today. - **Strategy**: Try short positions after the cease - fire was announced this morning [22]. (8) Methanol - **Logic**: Iranian methanol units stopped operating, increasing supply - side disturbances. Attention was needed on whether this would have a significant impact on future imports [26]. - **Technical Analysis**: Mid - term downward structure on the daily level, short - term downward structure on the hourly level, with a break in the trend today. - **Strategy**: Try short positions after the cease - fire was announced this morning [26]. (9) PVC - **Logic**: Maintenance volume gradually decreased, PVC supply increased, and terminal demand was insufficient. The impact of the Israel - Iran conflict on PVC was relatively weak [28]. - **Technical Analysis**: Mid - term downward structure on the daily level, short - term upward structure may have ended. It broke through key support today, and the short - term trend may have reversed. - **Strategy**: Wait for a rebound and then enter short positions according to technical signals rather than directly entering the market [28]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: Supply - side maintenance units would gradually resume operation, polyester operating rates declined, and the short - term fundamental situation weakened. It was easily affected by the geopolitical situation [30]. - **Technical Analysis**: Mid - term and short - term downward structures on the daily and hourly levels respectively, with a break in the trend today. - **Strategy**: Try short positions after the cease - fire was announced this morning [30]. (11) Plastic - **Logic**: There was pressure from large - scale unit production in the mid - term, with a large expected increase in supply. It was easily affected by large fluctuations in oil prices in the short term [34]. - **Technical Analysis**: Mid - term downward structure on the daily level, the hourly - level upward structure was under test. There was a significant decline today, testing short - term support, but it had not broken through technically. - **Strategy**: Try short positions after the cease - fire was announced this morning [34].

油脂全线下挫、棉花突破上扬 一、农产品板块综述 油脂全线下挫,受到原油暴力下跌的拖累,因以色列和伊朗全面 停火,中东局势急剧降温,原油重挫。同时国内大豆压榨量处于峰值 水平,豆油供应增加,库存累库,令豆油承压下跌。棉花突破上行, 棉花本月以来的横盘区间被突破,因新疆主产区遭遇高温天气影响, 考验棉花作物生长,且虫害也有提前爆发风险,市场担忧新棉花单产 下降,支撑棉价上涨。玉米大幅下跌,因小麦替代效应以及进口玉米 拍卖预期给玉米期价回落压力。 二、品种策略跟踪 (一) 豆油:大幅下跌 焦点关注:豆油主力 2509 合约周二大幅下跌,受到原油暴跌的 拖累: 1.以色列和伊朗全面停火,中东局势急速降温,原油价格暴跌, 带动油脂板块全线下跌,豆油跌幅领先。国内5月大豆进口量攀升至 历史同期高位,油厂压榨量处于峰值水平,豆油供应增加,下游需求 步入传统淡季,豆油库存累积,豆油期价承压下跌。 2.豆油主力 2509 合约大幅下跌,报收长阴,跌破 10 日均线, MACD 红柱四缩小,技术转弱,策略上轻仓空单,主力 2509 合约支 撑 7900,阻力 8000。 (二) 棕榈油:大幅下跌 焦点关注:棕榈油主力 2509 ...

Group 1: Report Core Views - The report focuses on the impact of the US bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities on the Israel-Iran conflict and the crude oil market, suggesting a preference for optimistic and neutral scenarios for the conflict's evolution, with a strategy of shorting crude oil on rallies [3][4] - Crude oil should be shorted on rallies in the optimistic and neutral scenarios, but the timing of short positions needs to be carefully considered, such as after signs of conflict de-escalation or significant supply increases from OPEC+ [4][5] Group 2: Future Evolution Paths of the Israel-Iran Conflict Optimistic Scenario - Iran either launches symbolic missile attacks on US military bases in the Middle East or does not respond, keeping the conflict limited to exchanges with Israel. Oil production and shipping in Iran are not affected. Eventually, through mediation or Israel's ceasefire, negotiations resume, and the oil price drops back to $60 (WTI) [3] Neutral Scenario - Iran attacks US military bases in the Middle East, leading to US intervention and further sanctions. The Strait of Hormuz is not blocked, and the conflict persists. Oil prices remain above $70 due to risk premiums but fall as OPEC+ increases production [3] Pessimistic Scenario - Iran attacks US military bases and blocks the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict expands, and the oil price may exceed $100, but this is a low - probability event [3] Group 3: Analysis of Various Commodities Crude Oil - Short - term influenced by the Israel - Iran conflict, with a mid - term supply - demand surplus logic taking a back seat. Wait for conflict de - escalation events. Technical analysis shows a mid - term oscillatory structure and a short - term upward structure. Strategy: wait for support break or de - escalation events to short [6] Styrene (EB) - Supply is abundant with high开工 rates, and demand is weak. It is easily affected by crude oil price fluctuations. Technical analysis shows a short - term upward structure. Strategy: wait for support break or de - escalation events to short [9] Rubber - Supply is increasing, and demand is weak with high inventories. Technical analysis shows a mid - term downward structure and a short - term oscillatory structure. Strategy: hold short positions [11] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Fundamental situation is weak with high supply, weak demand, and high inventory pressure. It is affected by crude oil price fluctuations. Technical analysis shows a mid - term downward structure and a short - term upward structure. Strategy: wait for support break or de - escalation events to short [14] PX - Demand supports inventory reduction, but it is affected by crude oil price fluctuations. Technical analysis shows a short - term upward structure. Strategy: wait for de - escalation events to short [17] PTA - Supply increases as maintenance devices resume operation, and demand is weak. It is affected by crude oil price fluctuations. Technical analysis shows a short - term upward structure. Strategy: wait for de - escalation events to short [20] PP - Supply is under pressure due to increased device operation, and demand is weak. It is affected by the Israel - Iran conflict through raw material supply. Technical analysis shows a short - term upward structure. Strategy: wait for de - escalation events to short [24] Methanol - Supply is affected by Iranian device shutdowns. Technical analysis shows a mid - term downward structure and a short - term upward structure. Strategy: wait for technical break or de - escalation events to short [25] PVC - Supply is increasing as maintenance decreases, and demand is weak due to the real - estate downturn. The Israel - Iran conflict has a relatively weak impact. Technical analysis shows a mid - term downward structure and a short - term upward structure. Strategy: wait and see [28] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Supply is expected to increase as maintenance devices resume, and demand is weak. It is affected by geopolitical situations. Technical analysis shows a mid - term downward structure and a short - term upward structure. Strategy: wait for de - escalation events to short [31] Plastic - There is pressure from large - scale device production in the mid - term, and it is affected by oil price fluctuations. Technical analysis shows a mid - term downward structure and a short - term upward structure. Strategy: wait for de - escalation events to short [32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The agricultural products sector shows diverse trends. Sugar and hog prices are rising, vegetable oils are at high levels, and corn is moving upward. Each specific variety is affected by different factors such as supply - demand, policies, and international market conditions [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Sugar rebounds due to low inventory and the approaching summer consumption peak. Hogs rise strongly as policy requires pig enterprises to reduce sow inventory, mid - year promotions boost sales, and slaughterhouse operating rates increase. Vegetable oils remain high supported by strong crude oil and positive news from production areas. Corn prices move up due to tight supply and a significant drop in imports [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Sugar - Focus: The main sugar 2509 contract breaks through and moves up. In May 2025, sugar imports increased (34.764 tons, a 157.80% month - on - month and 1954.93% year - on - year increase), but the cumulative imports from January to May decreased by 50.1% year - on - year. Low inventory and the consumption peak may further reduce inventory, supporting prices. Technically, it shows strength. The strategy is to hold light - position long orders, with support at 5684 and resistance at 5732 [2]. 3.2.2 Hogs - Focus: The hog 2509 contract rises strongly, entering an upward trend again. The supply is stable as farmers are not very willing to sell. Mid - year promotions in some areas increase slaughterhouse operating rates (27.97% in the week of June 19, a 0.75 - percentage - point week - on - week and 4.22 - percentage - point year - on - year increase). There is a phenomenon of second - fattening. Policies like stockpiling and reducing sow inventory support prices. The strategy is to hold light - position long orders, with support at 13730 and resistance at 14000 [3]. 3.2.3 Soybean Oil - Focus: The main soybean oil 2509 contract rises but then falls back, continuing the upward trend. Tensions in the Middle East keep oil prices high, and the strengthening cost side in the domestic market provides upward momentum. Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to hold light - position long orders, with support at 8100 and resistance at 8200 [5]. 3.2.4 Palm Oil - Focus: The main palm oil 2509 contract first rises then falls, with a narrowing increase. Strong exports (a 10.9% increase in exports from June 1 - 20) and a 4% decrease in production from June 1 - 15 support prices, but India's reduced procurement weakens the increase. Technically, it remains strong. The strategy is to hold light - position long orders, with support at 8494 and resistance at 8600 [8]. 3.2.5 Eggs - Focus: The main egg 2508 contract first rises then falls, with a narrowing increase. Low egg prices arouse bottom - fishing sentiment, and high - temperature weather reduces laying rates. However, the high - humidity rainy season suppresses demand. Technically, it remains strong. The strategy is to hold long orders, with support at 3600 and resistance at 3655 [9][11]. 3.2.6 Soybean Meal - Focus: The soybean meal 2509 contract fluctuates and closes down. Record - high soybean imports in May bring some pressure, but rising Brazilian soybean export premiums increase costs, supporting prices. Technically, it remains strong. The strategy is to hold long orders, with support at 3050 and resistance at 3087 [12]. 3.2.7 Corn - Focus: The main corn 2509 contract continues to rise, supported by tight supply. Spot prices are firm, and port inventories are decreasing. In May 2025, corn imports dropped 81.5% year - on - year. Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to hold light - position long orders, with support at 2400 and resistance at 2415 [14]. 3.2.8 Cotton - Focus: The main cotton 2509 contract fluctuates and closes down, continuing the sideways trend. The domestic textile market is in the off - season, but a sharp drop in imports supports prices. The strategy is to close long orders and conduct short - term trading, with support at 13450 and resistance at 13600 [16]. 3.2.9 Red Dates - Focus: The main red date 2509 contract falls back after a sharp rise. High - temperature weather in Xinjiang may affect production as the jujubes are in a critical growth period. Technically, it remains in an upward trend. The strategy is to hold light - position long orders during the correction, with support at 9200 and resistance at 9640 [18]. 3.2.10 Apples - Focus: The main apple 2510 contract rises significantly. Apple inventory is low (116.49 tons as of June 18, a 10.97 - ton decrease from the previous period), and new - season apples are in the late bagging stage. Technically, it shows strength. The strategy is to hold light - position long orders, with support at 7700 and resistance at 7800 [20].

以伊冲突之下等待标志性降温事件 板块观点汇总 | 品种 | 中期结构 | 短期结构 | 小时周期策略 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 震荡 | 偏多 | 观望 | | EB | 農汤 | 偏多 | 观望 | | PX | 偏空 | 偏多 | 观望 | | PTA | 偏空 | 偏多 | 观望 | | PP | 震荡 | 偏多 | 观望 | | 塑料 | 偏空 | 偏多 | 观望 | | 甲醇 | 偏多 | 偏多 | 观望 | | EG | 震荡 | 偏多 | 观望 | | 橡胶 | 偏空 | 震荡 | 空单持有 | | PVC | 偏空 | 偏多 | 观望 | | BR 橡胶 | 偏空 | 偏多 | 观望 | 行情日评: 以色列-伊朗冲突尚未降温,以伊冲突仍是近期主要交易逻辑。 昨日特朗普表示将于两周内决定是否对伊朗采取军事行动,暂缓决定 打击伊朗一事,地缘风险小幅降温,但并非标志性的降温信号。目前 原油与能化判断依然是地缘事件带来的溢价扰动,类似与去年 10月 伊朗"真实承诺 2"行动带来的干扰,只是幅度更大,而非趋势反转。 短期情绪推高原油与化工估值后,等待降温事件出 ...