1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The agricultural products sector shows a mixed performance. Oils and fats are rising strongly, eggs are making a strong rebound, and pigs are rising with fluctuations. Different varieties are affected by various factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and international situations [1]. 3. Summary by Product (1) Soybean Oil - The soybean oil main 2509 contract continues to rise strongly, boosted by US biofuel policies. Tensions in the Middle East drive up crude oil prices, which in turn drive up vegetable oils. Although domestic inventory is accumulating, the external market is strong. Technically, it is in a strong position, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - long positions with support at 7980 and resistance at 8100 [2]. (2) Palm Oil - The palm oil main 2509 contract continues to rise at a high level after a sharp increase, supported by rising oil prices and the upward trend of related oils. The export of Malaysian palm oil is strong, and production has declined. Technically, it is strong, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - long positions with support at 8450 and resistance at 8600 [3]. (3) Eggs - The egg main 2508 contract makes a strong rebound, driven by speculative buying. Egg prices are at a low level, leading to a release of bottom - fishing sentiment. Spot market transactions have improved, and inventory is low. Technically, it is strong, and the recommended strategy is to buy long positions with support at 3545 and resistance at 3656 [6]. (4) Soybean Meal - The soybean meal 2509 contract fluctuates at a high level. Domestic oil mills have a high operating rate, and inventory is accumulating. However, strong terminal demand and rising spot prices support the futures price. Technically, it is relatively strong, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - long positions with support at 3054 and resistance at 3087 [7][9][11]. (5) Corn - The corn main 2507 contract oscillates at a high level. Support comes from wheat's minimum purchase price, rising corn starch prices, and reduced port inventory. However, concerns about policy grain release limit its increase. The recommended strategy is short - term trading with support at 2362 and resistance at 2380 [13]. (6) Pigs - The pig 2509 contract continues to rise with fluctuations. Short - term government purchases boost market sentiment, and factors such as reduced supply and transportation restrictions support pig prices. Technically, it shows strong characteristics, and the recommended strategy is to hold long positions with support at 13795 and resistance at 13930 [14]. (7) Sugar - The sugar main 2509 contract oscillates at a low level. The decline in the external raw sugar market drags down Zhengzhou sugar, but low domestic inventory and the upcoming consumption season provide some support. The recommended strategy is short - term trading with support at 5645 and resistance at 5700 [16]. (8) Cotton - The cotton main 2509 contract rises with fluctuations. The easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations and declining port inventory support cotton prices. Although the domestic textile market is in the off - season, there are signs of improvement in external orders. Technically, it is relatively strong, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - long positions with support at 13500 and resistance at 13600 [19]. (9) Apples - The apple main 2510 contract fluctuates strongly. Low inventory supports the futures price, but the slow pace of inventory clearance and the gap with the same period in previous years are narrowing. Attention should be paid to the growth and quality of new - season apples. Technically, it is relatively strong, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - long positions with support at 7618 and resistance at 7700 [20][22]. (10) Peanuts - The peanut main 2510 contract oscillates and closes down. The market is in a stalemate between supply and demand, with low remaining inventory in the production area and limited demand from oil mills. Technically, it is weak, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - short positions with support at 8220 and resistance at 8286 [23].

地缘风险继续推动行情, 等待标志性降温事件 逻辑:以伊冲突下短期地缘溢价继续被市场交易,中期供需过剩 逻辑暂且退场。等待冲突下的标志性降温事件出现,如伊朗同意放弃 轴浓缩确定新谈判时间。 日度技术追踪:原油日线级别中期震荡结构,小时级别短期上涨 结构。今日增仓上行,小时 K 线则尚未转势,短期支撑关注 508一线。 策略上小时周期观望等待短期支撑破位或看到以伊冲突的标志性降 温事件后再逢高空。 图 1.1: 原油 2508 日线图 (二) 苯乙烯: 板块观点汇总 | 品种 | 中期结构 | 短期结构 | 小时周期策略 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 農汤 | 偏多 | 观望 | | EB | 震荡 | 偏多 | 观望 | | PX | 偏空 | 偏多 | 观望 | | PTA | 偏空 | 偏多 | 观望 | | PP | 農物 | 偏多 | 观望 | | 塑料 | 偏空 | 偏多 | 观望 | | 甲醇 | 偏多 | 偏多 | 观望 | | EG | 震荡 | 偏多 | 观望 | | 橡胶 | 偏空 | 偏空 | 空单持有 | | PVC | 偏空 | 偏空 | 空单止 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The Israel-Iran conflict continues, but it is likely to cool down. After the short - term sentiment pushes up the valuations of crude oil and chemicals, wait for the cooling event to find mid - term short - selling opportunities [2][3] - The short - term trading in the market is based on the geopolitical premium under the Israel - Iran conflict, while the mid - term supply - demand surplus logic of crude oil has temporarily retreated [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: Short - term trading is based on geopolitical premium under the Israel - Iran conflict, and the mid - term supply - demand surplus logic has temporarily retreated [4] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. There are signs of a peak on the daily K - line, and the hourly K - line has not reversed. The short - term support is at 490. The strategy is to wait for the short - term support to break on the hourly cycle [4] (2) Benzene Ethylene (EB) - **Logic**: The supply of pure benzene at the cost end is sufficient, and the port inventory is at a five - year high. The mid - term supply is expected to increase while the demand is weak, but it is affected by the large fluctuations in crude oil prices in the short term [7] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It reduced positions and declined today but has not reversed. The hourly - level support is at 7315. The strategy is to wait for the short - term support to break on the hourly cycle [7] (3) Rubber - **Logic**: The price of Thai cup rubber is 27% lower than the same period last year, and the supply in Southeast Asian producing areas is gradually being realized. The demand is extremely weak both at home and abroad. The mid - term bearish fundamentals remain unchanged [10] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The 14000 level is still a valid short - term pressure. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 14000 [10] (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The fundamentals of synthetic rubber are still in a weak pattern of high supply, weak demand, and large inventory pressure. The price of raw material butadiene will be under pressure after the large - scale commissioning of cracking units in June and the second half of the year. The demand is as weak as that of rubber. The mid - term fundamentals are bearish, but it is easily disturbed by large fluctuations in crude oil in the short term [13] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It reduced positions and declined today, with some fluctuations near the short - term pressure of 11470. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 11640 [13] (5) PX - **Logic**: Some PX plants will resume production in June, and the demand side (PTA) will also restart the overhauled plants. The current PX inventory is low, and the supply - demand is relatively balanced. It is more affected by crude oil fluctuations in the short term [17] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It fluctuated within the day today. The short - term support is at 6510 or wait for the crude oil to break the signal. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [17] (6) PTA - **Logic**: The previously overhauled PTA plants are gradually resuming production, the polyester start - up has declined, and the de - stocking amplitude has narrowed. The fundamentals have weakened, but it is more affected by crude oil fluctuations in the short term [20] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It fluctuated within the day today. The short - term support is at 4610 or wait for the crude oil to break the signal. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [20] (7) PP - **Logic**: The start - up of PP plants has increased, the supply is under pressure, and the order demand at the terminal demand end is weak in the traditional off - season. The short - term fundamentals are weak, but it is affected by the large fluctuations in crude oil from the cost end recently [23] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It fluctuated within the day today, and the short - term support below is at 7060. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [23] (8) Methanol - **Logic**: The Iranian methanol plants have stopped production, increasing supply - side disturbances. The domestic plants have high profits, and the domestic start - up remains at a historical high. The inventory has entered the accumulation stage [25] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It fluctuated within the day today, and the short - term support is at 2365. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [25] (9) PVC - **Logic**: The overhaul volume is gradually decreasing, and the PVC start - up is expected to gradually increase. The terminal demand is still insufficient in the real - estate downward cycle, and the export expectation has weakened significantly. The bearish fundamentals remain unchanged [28] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It fluctuated within the day today and has not reversed in the short term. The short - term pressure is still at 4880. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 4865 [28] (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: The overhauled plants at the supply end will gradually resume, and the polyester start - up at the demand end has declined. The short - term fundamentals have weakened, but it is easily affected by large fluctuations in oil prices in the short term [31] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It fluctuated within the day today, and the short - term support is at 4310. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [31] (11) Plastic - **Logic**: There is pressure from the commissioning of large plants in the mid - term, and the supply is expected to increase significantly. The mid - term view is bearish, but it is easily affected by large fluctuations in oil prices in the short term [32] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows an upward structure. It fluctuated within the day today, and the short - term support is at 7220. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [32]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The agricultural products sector shows diverse trends. Soybean meal is strongly rising, sugar is rebounding, and the oil and fat sector is oscillating upward. Different varieties are affected by various factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and seasonal consumption patterns [1]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Soybean Meal - The 2509 contract has risen significantly, reaching a new stage high. The US bio - fuel policy has boosted US soybean prices, which in turn support domestic soybean varieties. Despite high domestic oil mill operating rates, strong terminal demand and active提货 keep inventory accumulation slow. As of the 24th week, the inventory was 410,000 tons, with a 7.19% week - on - week increase and a 58.79% year - on - year decrease. The technical pattern is strong, and the recommended strategy is to hold light long positions with support at 3050 and resistance at 3100 [2]. (2) Soybean Oil - The 2509 contract oscillated upward. The US renewable fuel policy has a positive impact, but high domestic oil mill operating rates and increased inventory limit the upward space. The contract is technically strong, and the recommended strategy is to hold light long positions with support at 7932 and resistance at 8100 [3]. (3) Palm Oil - The 2509 contract oscillated upward. The US bio - fuel policy and strong Malaysian palm oil exports support the price. The technical pattern is strong, and the recommended strategy is to hold light long positions with support at 8400 and resistance at 8500 [5]. (4) Corn - The 2507 contract first declined and then rose, showing a high - level oscillation. The wheat purchase price and reduced supply pressure support the price. The recommended strategy is short - term trading with support at 2353 and resistance at 2369 [7]. (5) Live Pigs - The 2509 contract oscillated upward. The state purchase plan, reduced supply, and transportation restrictions support the price. The technical pattern is strong, and the recommended strategy is to hold long positions with support at 13750 and resistance at 13930 [10]. (6) Eggs - The 2508 contract oscillated downward, falling into a weak state again. High egg - laying hen inventory and the off - season for sales put downward pressure on the price. The technical pattern is weak, and the recommended strategy is to close long positions with support at 3537 and resistance at 3600 [11][13]. (7) Sugar - The 2509 contract strongly rebounded. The rebound of the external market and the approaching domestic consumption season support the price. The technical pattern has turned strong, and the recommended strategy is to close short positions and consider long positions with support at 5636 and resistance at 5725 [14]. (8) Cotton - The 2509 contract oscillated and closed with a small positive candle, continuing the sideways trend. The easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations and reduced inventory support the price, but the off - season in the textile market limits the upward space. The technical pattern is slightly strong, and the recommended strategy is to hold light long positions with support at 13450 and resistance at 13600 [16]. (9) Apples - The 2510 contract strongly rose, entering an upward trend. Low inventory supports the price, and attention should be paid to the growth and quality of new - season apples. The technical pattern has turned strong, and the recommended strategy is to hold light long positions with support at 7594 and resistance at 7698 [18]. (10) Peanuts - The 2510 contract oscillated downward, and the rebound was limited. The weakening support from the oil and fat sector and low demand limit the price. The technical pattern is weak, and the recommended strategy is to close long positions with support at 8240 and resistance at 8334 [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil's sharp rise drives the overall strength of the oil and fat sector. Due to the Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, the Middle - East situation has suddenly become tense, increasing the geopolitical premium and the bullish sentiment in the commodity market. The palm oil price has risen, with its origin showing both supply and demand growth. Meanwhile, eggs have rebounded, and corn has fluctuated at a high level [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Product Sector Overview - Crude oil's sharp rise drives the overall strength of the oil and fat sector. The Middle - East situation's tension boosts the geopolitical premium and the bullish sentiment in the commodity market. Palm oil has risen, with its origin having both supply and demand growth. The strong exports of Malaysian palm oil support the price increase, but the production growth also limits the increase. Eggs have rebounded due to potential bullish expectations after contract transfer and over - culling in the breeding end. Corn has fluctuated at a high level, supported by the wheat support policy, tight supply in the producing areas, and a sharp increase in the corn price in the sales areas [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Palm Oil: Rebound and Oscillation - The palm oil main 2509 contract has risen significantly, boosted by the sharp rise in crude oil. The tense Middle - East situation drives the rise in palm oil. Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to increase, but India's strong demand for palm oil exports supports the price. In China, palm oil inventory has increased year - on - year, and it is mainly for rigid demand. The main 2509 contract shows a box - shaped oscillation. The strategy is to close short positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 8086 and resistance at 8224 [2][3]. 3.2.2 Soybean Oil: Gap - up and Higher - The soybean oil main 2509 contract has risen due to the sharp rise in crude oil. However, the subsequent increase may be limited because of the large arrival of imported soybeans in China, high oil mill operating rates, and increased soybean oil supply and inventory. As of the end of the 23rd week, domestic soybean oil inventory was 91.89 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.42%. The strategy is to close short positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 7736 and resistance at 7838 [4]. 3.2.3 Live Hogs: Continuous Rise - The live hog 2509 contract has continued to rise, boosted by the news of state reserve purchases. The 10,000 - ton reserve purchase has boosted market confidence, supported the hog price, and increased buying from long positions. The strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 13700 and resistance at 13880 [6]. 3.2.4 Eggs: Rebound from Low Levels - The egg main 2508 contract has rebounded from low levels, boosted by increased culling of laying hens. After contract transfer, there are potential bullish factors. The accelerated culling of hens may reduce egg supply pressure. The strategy is to close short positions and pay attention to whether the resistance of the 20 - day moving average can be overcome, with support at 3500 and resistance at 3566 [8]. 3.2.5 Sugar: Rebound after Reaching a Low - The sugar main 2509 contract has rebounded after reaching a low, supported by some short - covering. The increased sugar production in Brazil, India, and Thailand puts pressure on the international sugar price. Although China's sugar production has increased and import volume is expected to rise, the high sugar sales rate and the upcoming summer consumption season support the price. The strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 5610 and resistance at 5686 [10]. 3.2.6 Soybean Meal: Oscillation and Decline - The soybean meal 2509 contract has oscillated and declined at a high level due to long - position profit - taking and cost - driven cooling. The high operating rate of domestic oil mills has increased soybean meal inventory. The strategy is to close long positions, with support at 3037 and resistance at 3065 [12]. 3.2.7 Corn: High - level Fluctuation - The corn main 2507 contract has fluctuated at a high level, first falling and then rising. Supported by the wheat support policy, tight supply in the producing areas, low imported corn, and a sharp increase in the sales - area spot price, the adjustment space is limited. The strategy is to hold long positions, with support at 2372 and resistance at 2387 [15]. 3.2.8 Cotton: First Decline then Rise, High - level Oscillation - The cotton main 2509 contract has first declined then risen and is running strongly. The Sino - US economic and trade consultation meeting has increased market optimism, and the decreasing port inventory of imported cotton also has a positive impact. Although the domestic textile market is in the off - season, the easing of Sino - US relations has stabilized market sentiment. The strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 13390 and resistance at 13600 [16][18]. 3.2.9 Apples: Narrow - range Oscillation - The apple main 2510 contract has oscillated in a narrow range, with limited rebound space. Low inventory supports the price, but slow sales in the off - season offset some of the support. The inventory depletion has slowed down, and the expected reduction in new - season production has decreased. The strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 7544 and resistance at 7637 [19][21]. 3.2.10 Peanuts: Narrow - range Fluctuation - The peanut main 2510 contract has had a small rebound after a continuous sharp decline and is fluctuating in a narrow range. The peanut market currently has weak supply and demand. Some suppliers' profit - taking and weak terminal demand put pressure on the price. The strategy is to hold light short positions, with support at 8180 and resistance at 8232 [22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The sudden attack by Israel on Iran has disrupted the market rhythm, with short - term geopolitical logic overriding the medium - term supply - demand logic, leading to a sharp rise in crude oil prices. It is believed that a full - scale war between Israel and Iran is unlikely. After the short - term sentiment pushes up the valuations of crude oil and chemicals, mid - term short - selling opportunities should be sought after the geopolitical situation becomes clear [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog (1) Overall Variety Analysis - For most varieties (crude oil, EB, PX, PTA, PP, plastic, methanol), the medium - term structure is bearish, while the short - term structure is bullish. For EG, rubber, PVC, and BR rubber, both the medium - term and short - term structures are bearish. Different trading strategies are recommended for each variety based on technical analysis [2]. (2) Crude Oil - **Logic**: The Israel - Iran attack makes geopolitical sentiment the short - term dominant factor. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Iranian geopolitical situation [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. After a daily limit up and then the opening of the board at the end of the session, the short - term support is around 490. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait for the short - term support to break [5]. (3) Benzene (Styrene) - **Logic**: The cost - side pure benzene has high port inventory and strong import increment expectations. The supply of benzene styrene is expected to remain high, while the demand has not improved, so it is bearish in the medium term [7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. After a volume - reducing and price - increasing movement with crude oil, the hourly - level support is around 7315. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [10]. (4) Rubber - **Logic**: The price of Thai glue has dropped nearly 20% in the past two weeks, and the terminal demand is weak, so it is bearish in the medium term [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: Both the daily - level and hourly - level show downward structures. After a volume - reducing rebound affected by crude oil, it has not broken through the short - term pressure of 14000. The hourly - cycle strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - loss reference of 14000 [13]. (5) Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The fundamentals of synthetic rubber are average. The supply of butadiene is expected to increase, which will put pressure on synthetic rubber from the cost side. The demand is also affected by tire inventory pressure, so it is bearish in the medium term [14]. - **Technical Analysis**: Both the daily - level and hourly - level show downward structures. After a volume - reducing rebound affected by crude oil, it has not effectively broken through the short - term pressure of 11470. The hourly - cycle strategy is to hold short positions with a take - profit reference of 11550 [17]. (6) PX - **Logic**: The supply - side profit has recovered, and the short - term supply - demand has strengthened. There are many maintenance plans in July, so the supply contraction expectation is strong. The fundamentals are bullish, and attention should be paid to the cost - side crude oil drive [19]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. After a volume - reducing and price - increasing movement with crude oil, it has broken through the pressure and reversed in the short term. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [20]. (7) PTA - **Logic**: The supply - side operating rate has recovered, and the demand - side polyester profit is weak. The short - term supply - demand has weakened compared with before. Attention should be paid to the crude oil drive [21]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. After a volume - reducing and price - increasing movement with crude oil, it has broken through the pressure and reversed in the short term. The hourly - cycle strategy is to stop - loss and exit short positions [21]. (8) PP - **Logic**: The demand is weak in the off - season, and there are large - scale device productions in June, with a strong supply increase expectation. Short - term cost fluctuations driven by crude oil should be noted [25]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. After a volume - reducing and price - increasing movement with crude oil, it has broken through the pressure and reversed in the short term. The hourly - cycle strategy is to take - profit and exit short positions [25]. (9) Methanol - **Logic**: The domestic device profit is high, the import volume is large, and the inventory is accumulating, so there is great medium - term pressure on the market [28]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. After a volume - reducing and price - increasing movement affected by crude oil, the short - term support is around 2275. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [28]. (10) PVC - **Logic**: In the real - estate downward cycle, the downstream operating rate is at the lowest level in the same period of previous years, and the export demand is weak. The supply - side operating rate is around the average level in the same period of previous years, so the fundamentals are bearish [29]. - **Technical Analysis**: Both the daily - level and hourly - level show downward structures. After a small - scale volume - increasing rebound, it has not broken through the pressure. The short - term pressure is around 4880. The hourly - cycle strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - loss reference of 4865 [29]. (11) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: The supply has tightened, the short - term polyester demand is okay, and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term fundamentals are supported, and the supply - demand contradiction is not obvious [32]. - **Technical Analysis**: Both the daily - level and hourly - level show downward structures. After a volume - reducing and price - increasing rebound affected by crude oil, it has broken through the short - term pressure. The hourly - cycle strategy is to take - profit and exit short positions [32]. (12) Plastic - **Logic**: There are many maintenance devices recently, but there is large - scale device production pressure in June and the second half of the year, so it is bearish in the medium term [36]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows an upward structure. After a volume - reducing and price - increasing movement affected by crude oil, it is still affected by sentiment. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [36].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the energy and chemical sector, analyzing the market conditions of various products including crude oil, styrene, rubber, and others [1][2][3] - Geopolitical tensions have led to an increase in crude oil prices, but the performance of energy and chemical products has deviated from crude oil [1][3] - The mid - term and short - term structures and trading strategies for each product are provided [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 3: Core Views - Geopolitical factors, especially the US - Iran nuclear negotiations, are key factors affecting the short - term crude oil market, while the mid - term supply surplus pressure from OPEC+ remains [3][4] - For most products, the mid - term outlook is bearish due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances and raw material cost changes [2][4][7] Group 4: Summary by Product Crude Oil - Logic: The mid - term supply surplus is strong due to OPEC+ production increase, but short - term prices are boosted by geopolitical and macro factors. Focus on the progress of the Iran nuclear deal [4] - Technical analysis: Mid - term downward structure on the daily chart, short - term upward structure on the hourly chart. Support at 485. Strategy: Wait for the short - term support to break [4] Benzene (Styrene) - Logic: Cost - side pressure from high port inventories of pure benzene and expected supply increase; supply is high and demand is weak. Mid - term bearish [7] - Technical analysis: Short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Look for short - selling opportunities after the 7335 support breaks on the 15 - minute cycle [7] Rubber - Logic: Supply increase from the main producing areas and weak terminal demand. Mid - term bearish [10] - Technical analysis: Mid - term and short - term downward structures. Short - selling opportunity at the close of the first K - line in the afternoon [10] Synthetic Rubber - Logic: Supply pressure from butadiene production increase and weak demand due to tire inventory. Mid - term bearish [14] - Technical analysis: Mid - term and short - term downward structures. Hold short positions with a stop - profit at 11470 [14] PX - Logic: Short - term supply - demand is strong due to restart of devices and upcoming maintenance. Focus on crude oil cost [18] - Technical analysis: Short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound ends [18] PTA - Logic: Supply increases as maintenance devices restart, and demand is weak. Short - term no inventory pressure but the situation has weakened. Focus on crude oil [20] - Technical analysis: Short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Hold short positions with a stop - loss at 4720 [20] PP - Logic: Weak demand in the off - season and expected supply increase from new device production. Focus on crude oil cost [23] - Technical analysis: Short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Hold short positions with a stop - profit at 6980 [23] Methanol - Logic: High domestic production and import lead to inventory accumulation. Mid - term pressure is large [24] - Technical analysis: Mid - term downward structure on the daily chart, short - term upward structure on the hourly chart. Wait for the support at 2265 to break for short - selling [24] PVC - Logic: Weak downstream demand in the real - estate downturn and weak export. Bearish fundamentals [27] - Technical analysis: Mid - term and short - term downward structures. Hold short positions with a stop - loss at 4850 [27] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: Supply tightens due to domestic device maintenance and reduced imports, and short - term demand is okay. Short - term support exists [32] - Technical analysis: Mid - term and short - term downward structures. Hold short positions with a stop - profit at 4300 [32] Plastic - Logic: Short - term low production due to device maintenance, but large supply increase expected in the future. Mid - term bearish [33] - Technical analysis: Mid - term downward structure on the daily chart, short - term upward structure on the hourly chart. Wait for the support at 7085 to break for short - selling [33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural products sector shows mixed trends: pig prices rise significantly, sugar prices continue to fall, and other products have different price movements [1]. - The price trends of various agricultural products are affected by factors such as policies, international market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and technical indicators. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Pig - Focus: The 2509 contract of live pigs rises strongly, supported by the state's 10,000 - ton pork purchase and storage news, which boosts market confidence and encourages slaughter enterprises to increase pig - purchasing efforts [2]. - Technical analysis: The main 2509 contract closes with a long positive line, standing above the 20 - day moving average, with an expanding MACD red column. The recommended strategy is to hold a small - position long order, with support at 13,560 and resistance at 13,880 [2]. (2) Sugar - Focus: The 2509 contract of sugar continues to fall, dragged down by the weak external market. Brazil's sugar - making pace accelerates, and the sugar production prospects in India and Thailand are good, causing the ICE raw sugar futures price to decline [3]. - Technical analysis: The main 2509 contract continues to fall, below all moving averages, with a weak technical pattern. The recommended strategy is to hold a small - position short order, with support at 5,610 and resistance at 5,664 [3]. (3) Palm Oil - Focus: The 2509 contract of palm oil rebounds and fluctuates after a sharp decline, boosted by the rise in crude oil prices, but the rebound is limited due to the abundant supply in the producing areas. Malaysia's palm oil production and inventory increase in May [6]. - Technical analysis: The main 2509 contract rebounds slightly but is still below all moving averages, with a dead - cross sign in MACD. The recommended strategy is to hold a small - position short order at high prices, with support at 7,958 and resistance at 8,070 [6]. (4) Soybean Meal - Focus: The 2509 contract of soybean meal oscillates upward. The agreement framework reached between China and the United States boosts market sentiment. The rising cost of imported Brazilian soybeans and the oil mills' increased willingness to support prices contribute to the rise [7]. - Technical analysis: The main 2509 contract oscillates at a high level, above the moving - average system, with an expanding MACD red column. The recommended strategy is to hold a small - position long order, with support at 3,031 and resistance at 3,065 [7]. (5) Corn - Focus: The 2507 contract of corn adjusts at a high level. Although supported by the wheat purchase - storage policy, it faces resistance at high levels, and long - position liquidation leads to a price correction [9]. - Technical analysis: The main 2507 contract continues to adjust but remains above the moving averages. The recommended strategy is to hold a long order, with support at 2,364 and resistance at 2,387 [9]. (6) Cotton - Focus: The 2509 contract of cotton oscillates narrowly after a continuous rise, supported by the positive news of China - US economic and trade talks. The domestic textile market is in the off - season, but the inventory is declining [11]. - Technical analysis: The main 2509 contract fluctuates at a high level, with a golden - cross above the MACD zero - axis and an expanding red column. The recommended strategy is to hold a small - position long order, with support at 13,490 and resistance at 13,600 [11]. (7) Soybean Oil - Focus: The 2509 contract of soybean oil continues to decline, pressured by the increasing domestic supply. The large arrival of imported soybeans and the high operating rate of oil mills lead to a significant accumulation of soybean oil inventory [13]. - Technical analysis: The main 2509 contract continues to decline, below the moving - average system. The recommended strategy is to hold a small - position short order, with support at 7,666 and resistance at 7,728 [13]. (8) Eggs - Focus: The 2508 contract of eggs oscillates downward. The high inventory of laying hens and weak demand during the off - season put pressure on the egg futures price [16]. - Technical analysis: The main 2508 contract oscillates downward, below the moving - average system. The recommended strategy is to hold a small - position short order, with support at 3,450 and resistance at 3,500 [16]. (9) Apples - Focus: The 2510 contract of apples continues to rebound with intraday oscillations. Low inventory and production - reduction expectations support the price, but the limited demand in the off - season restricts the rebound space [17]. - Technical analysis: The main 2510 contract rebounds and oscillates, standing above the 5 - day moving average. The recommended strategy is to hold a short order, with support at 7,478 and resistance at 7,600 [19]. (10) Peanuts - Focus: The 2510 contract of peanuts continues to fall, reaching a one - month low. Weak terminal demand and increased supply from some holders selling off pressure the peanut price [20]. - Technical analysis: The main 2510 contract continues to fall, below the moving - average system, with an expanding MACD green column. The recommended strategy is to hold a small - position short order, with support at 8,180 and resistance at 8,230 [22].

棕榈油、白糖大跌 一、农产品板块综述 棕榈油大跌,因马来西亚棕榈油产量大增至历史同期高位,供应 增大压力令棕油下挫,国内棕油库存上升,需求偏弱,连棕油大幅下 跌,后市科有续跌空间。白糖亦加速下跌,受到外盘原糖大跌的拖累, 因巴西自糖压榨进度加快,产量增大,同时亚洲糖主产国产量前景较 好,压制外盘大跌,带动郑糖扩大跌幅,弱势料持续。玉米冲高回落, 期价在连续上涨至高位后,多头获利回吐令期价高位调整,但涨势尚 未改变,后市料高位波动。豆粕持续震荡上行,因进口大豆成本上升, 油厂压榨利润下滑后挺价豆粕,豆粕偏强波动。 二、品种策略跟踪 (一) 棕櫚油: 大幅下跌 焦点关注:棕榈油主力 2509 合约大幅下跌,受到产地增产增大 压力: 1.马来西亚棕榈油总署 MPOB 发布的月度供需报告显示,马来西 亚 5 月棕油产量增长 5.05%至 177 万吨,处于历史同期接近最高位, 季节性增产效应明显。马棕榈油 5 月库存亦增 6.65%至 199 万吨,为 去年 9 月以来最高位,出口则大幅增加 25.6%至 139 万吨,同时进口 也有较大增幅,产量和进口激增抵消了出口的增长。棕榈油后续月份 产量预计逐月增加,给棕榈油 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of multiple chemical commodities, including their mid - term and short - term market outlooks, fundamental factors, and daily technical analysis, with most commodities showing a bearish or cautious outlook in the medium term [1][4][8][11][16][17][20][22][26][27][30]. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Logic**: In the medium term, there is a strong expectation of oversupply due to OPEC+ accelerating production increases, but in the short term, geopolitical factors (unresolved US - Iran negotiations) and a warmer macro - environment have led to stronger prices. The mid - term fundamental pressure remains high [1]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The price has reached the upper pressure level, and the short - term support is at 474. The strategy is to wait for the short - term support to break on the hourly cycle [3]. Benzene Ethylene (EB) - **Logic**: The cost - side pure benzene has high port inventory and strong import increase expectations, and domestic supply will be more abundant. Benzene ethylene port inventory is increasing, and supply is expected to remain high while demand has not improved. It is bearish in the medium term [4][7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term downward structure is under test. The strategy is to focus on the short - selling opportunity after the 15 - minute cycle breaks the 7275 - 7400 oscillation range [7]. Rubber - **Logic**: The price of Thai glue has dropped nearly 20% in the past two weeks, indicating an increase in supply after the main production area starts harvesting. Terminal demand is weak, and the possibility of a squeeze on 20 - grade rubber has further dissipated. It is bearish in the medium term [8][10]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level show a downward structure. The short - term pressure is at 14000. The strategy is to wait for a new short - selling signal on the hourly cycle [10]. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The fundamentals of synthetic rubber are average. In June and the second half of the year, there is a large production pressure on cracking units, and the supply of butadiene is expected to increase, which will put pressure on synthetic rubber from the cost side. Demand is also suppressed by tire inventory pressure. It is bearish in the medium term [11][13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level show a downward structure. The short - term pressure is at 11470. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference at 11470 [13]. PX - **Logic**: The supply - side profit has recovered, and PX units are gradually restarting. The short - term supply - demand is strengthening, and there are many maintenance plans in July, with a strong expectation of supply contraction. The fundamentals are strong, and attention should be paid to the cost - side crude oil drive [16]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure is at 6630 - 6660. The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound ends on the hourly cycle [16]. PTA - **Logic**: The supply - side units that were previously under maintenance are restarting, and the operating rate has risen to 78.97%. The demand - side polyester profit is weak, and the operating rate has declined slightly but remains at 91.3%. There is no short - term inventory accumulation pressure, but the supply - demand has weakened compared to before. Attention should be paid to the crude oil drive [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The upper pressure is at 4720. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference at 4720 [19]. PP - **Logic**: The demand is weak in the off - season, and there are large - scale unit startups in June, with a strong expectation of increased supply. Short - term cost fluctuations due to crude oil also need attention [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure is at 6980. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference at 6980 [20]. Methanol - **Logic**: High domestic unit profits have led to a high operating rate, and there is a large increase in imports. The inventory is in the accumulation stage, and the medium - term pressure on the market is large [22]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The short - term support is at 2260. The strategy is to wait for the support to break and then look for short - selling opportunities [22]. PVC - **Logic**: In the real - estate downturn cycle, the downstream operating rate of PVC has reached the lowest level in the same period of previous years, and the export demand has weakened. The supply - side operating rate is around the average of previous years, and the fundamentals are bearish [26]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level show a downward structure. The short - term pressure is at 4980. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference at 4850 [26]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: The supply has tightened due to unexpected domestic unit maintenance and reduced imports. The short - term polyester demand is acceptable, and the inventory is decreasing, providing some short - term fundamental support. The supply - demand contradiction is not obvious [27]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level show a downward structure. The short - term pressure is at 4295. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference at 4295 [27]. Plastic - **Logic**: There are many maintenance units in the short term, and the overall operating rate is low. However, there is large - scale unit startup pressure in June and the second half of the year, and the supply increase expectation is high. The medium - term outlook is bearish [30]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level structure is unclear. The short - term support is at 7050. The strategy is to wait for the support to break and then look for short - selling opportunities [30].