亚洲溢价显著推升原油市场 多空博弈进入拉锯阶段 一、日度市场总结 从原油期货数据来看，中国SC原油价格单日上涨1.67%至510.7元/桶，而 WTI和Brent连续两日维持67.92和69.6美元/桶不变，凸显亚洲市场活跃度 提升。价差层面，SC-Brent和SC-WTI价差分别扩大290%和57%，创出1.6和 3.28美元/桶新高，反映中国原油期货相对外盘的溢价显著增强。与此同 时，SC近月合约升水连3合约价差从14.8元扩大到17.8元，近月合约强势表 明短期交割品存在结构性紧缺。 供需格局变化显示多重博弈。供应端利空因素正在积聚：沙特4月原油出口 环比增加41.2万桶/日，印证OPEC+产量政策松动；利比亚大型油田重启勘 探及美国与印尼签署原油采购协议，均指向中长期供应增量。但中东地缘 风险提供支撑，以色列与胡塞武装冲突升级刺激油价盘中反弹，不过市场 普遍认为冲突扩散概率较低。需求端呈现区域分化：山东独立炼厂本周到 港量环比下滑7.5%至136.5万吨，反映中国地方炼厂采购节奏放缓，但欧美 旺季需求强劲成为支撑，IEA口径表观消费增速超预期推动WTI盘中收复跌 幅。 库存变化释放微妙信号。中质含硫原 ...

Report Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. Core View The copper market may continue its low-level oscillation in the next 1 - 2 weeks. The contradiction between stable domestic smelting capacity release and tight overseas LME inventory on the supply side, combined with the deepening off - season and high copper prices suppressing procurement on the demand side, makes it difficult for orders in the construction and electronics sectors to support prices. Macroeconomic factors such as the repeated expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts and the weak domestic economic recovery also suppress the valuation of commodities [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary - **Market Data Changes**: On July 8, the SHFE copper main contract closed at 79,510 yuan/ton, up 0.13% from the previous trading day. The basis weakened significantly, with the premium of flat - copper dropping from 80 yuan/ton on July 2 to 55 yuan/ton, and the premium/discount of wet - copper widening from - 5 yuan/ton to - 40 yuan/ton. The LME (0 - 3) premium fell to 79.8 dollars/ton. The SHFE copper's inter - month BACK spread narrowed from 250 yuan/ton to 190 yuan/ton. The LME copper's open interest decreased by 3,072 lots to 281,488 lots on July 7, and the SHFE inventory increased to 102,500 tons in a single week [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes**: On the supply side, domestic supply remained stable with high utilization of smelting capacity, while overseas LME inventory decreased continuously. On the demand side, the off - season effect deepened, with weak demand in the power and electronics sectors. The copper cable operating rate was 72.41% with a 7.52% increase in finished product inventory, and the copper strip processing fee collapsed. The operating rates of various industries were expected to decline further in July. On the inventory side, the inventory differentiation intensified, with the continuous decline of LME inventory possibly reflecting European restocking demand, while the SHFE inventory exceeded 100,000 tons due to weak domestic consumption [2]. - **Market Conclusion**: The copper market may continue its low - level oscillation in the next 1 - 2 weeks due to the supply - demand contradiction and macro - level factors [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Price Data**: On July 8, 2025, the SMM:1 copper price was 79,910 yuan/ton, down 0.09% from July 7. The premium of premium copper was 115 yuan/ton, down 8.00%. The premium of flat - copper was 55 yuan/ton, down 21.43%. The premium/discount of wet - copper was - 40 yuan/ton, down 300.00%. The LME (0 - 3) was 51 dollars/ton, down 35.70%. The SHFE price was 79,510 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. The LME price was 9,665 dollars/ton, down 1.22% [5]. - **Inventory Data**: The LME inventory was 19,109 tons, down 11.87% from July 7. The SHFE inventory was 102,500 tons, up 5.24%. The COMEX inventory was 221,788 short tons, up 0.15% [5]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Enterprise Projects**: On July 2, China Copper Industry established a mining research institute. Northern Copper's calendered copper foil production capacity is 5000 tons/year [6]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: In June, the operating rate of SMM copper cable enterprises decreased by 9.27% month - on - month to 72.41%, and is expected to drop to 71.98% in July. The copper strip processing fee declined significantly, and the operating rate in June was 67.44%, expected to drop to 63.44% in July [6]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report includes charts on China PMI, US PMI, US employment, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper price, the correlation between US interest rates and LME copper price, TC processing fees, CFTC copper open interest, LME copper net long positions, SHFE copper warehouse receipts, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [7][9][13][16][18][22][23][26][27].

能源化工 通惠期货•研发产品系列 纯苯&苯乙烯日报 2025 年 7 月 9 日 星期三 特朗普关税 8 月再度来袭，终端消费或再受扰动 一、 日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn （1）基本面 成本：7 月 8 日布油主力合约收盘 67.9 桶（+0.9 桶），WTI 原油主力合 约收盘 69.6 桶（+1.3 美元/桶），华东纯苯现货报价 5840 元/吨（+0 元/ 吨）。 库存：苯乙烯样本工厂库存 19.4 万吨（-0.6 万吨），环比去库 3.0%，江 苏港口库存 9.9 万吨（+1.4 万吨），环比累库 16.2%，苯乙烯整体偏累库。 供应：苯乙烯检修装置逐渐回归，供应整体持稳。目前，苯乙烯周产量 保持 36.7 万吨（+0 万吨），工厂产能利用率 80.0%（-0.1%）。 需求：下游 3S 开工率变化不一，其中 EPS 产能利用率 55.9（-3.84%）， ABS 产能利用率 65.0%（-1.0%），PS 产能利用率 52.4% ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of July 7, 2025, the crude oil market showed mixed characteristics. Short - term oil prices are expected to remain high and volatile, with the central price likely to rise by $2 - 3. OPEC+ production increase and geopolitical risks offset each other, and the actual production increase effect depends on Saudi Arabia's production release rhythm [2][3]. - The inventory structure shows regional differentiation. The tension in the Middle East may delay the crude oil shipping cycle, and the disruption of Red Sea transportation may trigger European refineries' restocking demand [3]. - The demand in the Indian market provides support. In June, gasoline consumption increased by 6.9% year - on - year, and the total fuel consumption reached 20.31 million tons. The increasing willingness of Asian refineries to start operations drives the cracking profit to expand [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Price Performance**: SC crude oil futures prices fell slightly by 0.24% to 502.3 yuan/barrel, but the post - market main contract rebounded 2.13% to 512 yuan/barrel. WTI slightly declined by 0.06% to 66.46 dollars/barrel, while Brent rose 1.59% to 69.6 dollars/barrel. The Brent - WTI spread strengthened by 56% to 3.14 dollars/barrel, and the SC - Brent cross - regional arbitrage space narrowed by 77% to 0.41 dollars/barrel [2]. - **Supply - side**: OPEC+ plans to approve a production increase of 550,000 barrels per day in September on August 3, but the implementation effect is questionable. The Israeli air strike on the oil facilities in the port of Hodeidah has intensified the supply - chain risks in the Red Sea route [2]. - **Demand - side**: In June, India's gasoline consumption increased by 6.9% year - on - year, and the total fuel consumption reached 20.31 million tons. The increasing willingness of Asian refineries to start operations drives the cracking profit to expand, and the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil rose 2% during the day [2]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory structure shows regional differentiation. The SC spread (SC continuous 1 - continuous 3) narrowed to 14.8 yuan/barrel, and the Brent monthly spread structure remained steep [3]. - **Price Forecast**: Short - term oil prices are expected to remain high and volatile, with the central price likely to rise by $2 - 3. The production increase decision of OPEC+ and geopolitical risks offset each other. Technically, Brent has the momentum to rise further after breaking through the $69 resistance level, while WTI faces strong pressure around $67.5 [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: The prices of SC, WTI, and Brent futures showed different trends. Key spreads such as Brent - WTI and SC - Brent changed significantly. The US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 0.93%, and the Cushing inventory decreased by 6.72%. The US refinery weekly operating rate increased by 0.21% [5]. - **Fuel Oil**: The prices of various fuel oil futures and spot products showed different changes. The Singapore inventory increased by 3.91%. The Chinese high - low sulfur spread increased by 2.60% [6]. 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Supply**: OPEC+ oil - producing countries will approve a significant production increase of about 550,000 barrels per day in September on August 3 [7]. - **Demand**: In June, India's diesel sales increased by 1.6% year - on - year, gasoline sales increased by 6.9% year - on - year, and the fuel sales reached 20.31 million tons [9]. - **Inventory**: The main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) rose 2.00% during the day. The futures warehouse receipts of fuel oil and medium - sulfur crude oil remained unchanged [10]. - **Market Information**: As of 2:30 on July 8, the SC crude oil main contract rose 2.13%. The Brent crude oil futures price rose more than $1 during the day, and the night - session futures main contracts of the crude oil series all rose [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The pure benzene market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand. Supply is boosted by the restart of some plants and new production lines, while demand has mostly recovered to pre - second - quarter levels. Port inventory is likely to accumulate, and the potential early production of Yulong Petrochemical's pure benzene plant has affected market sentiment and widened the price difference with styrene [3]. - The styrene market's supply - demand pattern is weakening. Supply pressure is increasing as weekly production reaches a historical high, and demand from downstream industries is softening. Port inventory is rising, and styrene has entered an inventory - building phase. Attention should be paid to the basis adjustment rhythm and the commissioning progress of Yulong Petrochemical's disproportionation unit [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Daily Market Summary - **Fundamentals**: - **Price**: On July 7, the styrene main contract closed down 0.04% at 7337 yuan/ton, with a basis of 303 (+13 yuan/ton). - **Cost**: The Brent crude oil main contract closed at 67.0 dollars/barrel (+0 dollars/barrel), WTI crude oil at 68.3 dollars/barrel (-0.5 dollars/barrel), and the East China pure benzene spot price was 5880 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton). - **Inventory**: Styrene sample factory inventory was 19.4 million tons (-0.6 million tons), a 3.0% de - stocking, while Jiangsu port inventory was 9.9 million tons (+1.4 million tons), a 16.2% inventory build - up. - **Supply**: Styrene's maintenance devices are gradually returning, with a weekly output of 36.7 million tons (+0 million tons) and a factory capacity utilization rate of 80.0% (-0.1%). - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rates of downstream 3S industries have declined. EPS is at 55.9% (-3.84%), ABS at 65.0% (-1.0%), and PS at 52.4% (-5.0%) [2]. 3.2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring - **Prices**: - **Styrene**: The futures main - contract price dropped 0.04% to 7337 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 0.13% to 7914 yuan/ton. The basis increased 4.48% to 303 yuan/ton. - **Pure Benzene**: The East China price remained unchanged at 5880 yuan/ton, the South Korea FOB price dropped 0.42% to 711.5 dollars/ton, the US FOB price rose 2.29% to 817.8 dollars/ton, and the China CFR price dropped 0.41% to 727.5 dollars/ton. - **Spreads**: The pure benzene internal - benefit - CFR spread increased 6.60% to -398.1 yuan/ton, and the pure benzene East China - Shandong spread decreased 71.43% to -120.0 yuan/ton. - **Upstream**: Brent crude oil was flat at 67.0 dollars/ton, WTI crude oil dropped 0.73% to 68.3 dollars/ton, and naphtha dropped 0.39% to 7751.5 yuan/ton [6]. - **Output and Inventory**: - **Output**: China's styrene output was 36.7 million tons (-0.07%), and pure benzene output was 43.3 million tons (+0.16%). - **Inventory**: Jiangsu styrene port inventory increased 16.24% to 9.9 million tons, domestic styrene factory inventory decreased 2.99% to 19.4 million tons, and the national pure benzene port inventory increased 3.51% to 17.7 million tons [7]. - **Capacity Utilization**: - **Pure Benzene Downstream**: Styrene's capacity utilization dropped 0.05% to 80.0%, caprolactam rose 6.41% to 95.7%, phenol dropped 0.46% to 78.5%, and aniline dropped 0.10% to 69.2%. - **Styrene Downstream**: EPS dropped 3.84% to 55.9%, ABS dropped 0.96% to 65.0%, and PS dropped 5.00% to 52.4% [8]. 3.3. Industry News - Trump believes there is no need to extend the July 9 tariff deadline, and the US Treasury Secretary admits it may be difficult to complete all negotiations. - Trump may lead a delegation to China, and US officials are formulating a plan for him to visit China with dozens of CEOs later this year. - The US Senate passed the Trump tax - reform bill in a key procedural vote with a 51 - 49 margin [9].

供需边际转弱对冲油价修复作用，PTA盘面偏弱运行 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn PTA：PTA走势或承压偏弱，原油走弱削弱成本驱动，叠加纺织成交持续低 于均值表明终端需求疲软，产业链负反馈下PTA加工费可能被压缩，但低库 存及高基差限制下行空间。 2. 聚酯 07月07日，短纤主力合约收6518.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨0.06%。华东 市场现货价为6695.0元/吨，较前一交易日收跌15.0元/吨，基差为177.0 元/吨。 聚酯产业链呈现供应趋松、库存分化的特点。供应方面，PX期货价从6月27 日至7月7日由6752元/吨降至6684元/吨，PTA同期由4778元/吨跌至4710元/ 吨，产业链成本端支撑松动。 需求方面，轻纺城成交量MA15指标从6月27日609万米持续攀升至7月7日643 万米，下游纺织补库需求逐步释放。 库存方面，涤纶短纤库存天数7.99天远超五年均值4.96天，但长丝品类中 DTY(28.6天)、FDY(22.4天)、POY ...

装置边际恢复叠加港口累库，乙二醇延续震荡运行 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 从数据变动来看，乙二醇期货主力合约价格连续三日微幅下跌，7月7日报 4305元/吨，较7月4日下跌8元，跌幅0.19%，但期现基差走扩至65元/吨， 体现现货价格僵持背景下期货市场远期情绪弱化。 生产利润方面，煤制亏损维持262元/吨未变，而石脑油制、乙烯制和甲醇 制仍深陷亏损（分别达-109.8、-947和-1437元/吨），高成本工艺的全面 亏损对供给端形成刚性约束。 供需结构上，尽管乙二醇总开工率微增0.2%至62.43%，但煤制装置仅57.2% 的开工水平仍处历史低位，而聚酯工厂负荷89.42%、江浙织机负荷63.43% 均持平前值，需求端持续缺乏弹性。 值得注意的是华东主港库存单周增3.6万吨至54.2万吨，其中张家港库存增 幅达7.2%，而同时段到港量却大幅缩减4.4万吨至8.43万吨，显示终端提货 速度显著放缓，流通环节出现累库压力。 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn 当前乙二醇市 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Ethylene glycol is expected to continue its bottom - side oscillating pattern due to weak costs, inventory accumulation, and soft terminal demand. Attention should be paid to coal price fluctuations and the recovery rhythm of polyester factory orders [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - On July 4, ethylene glycol futures and spot prices declined slightly. The settlement price of the main contract dropped 0.25% to 4313 yuan/ton, and the East China spot price fell 10 yuan/ton to 4350 yuan/ton. The basis widened to 47 yuan, indicating stronger support in the spot market [1] - The 1 - 5 spread narrowed but remained in a contango structure, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased 2 yuan to 52 yuan/ton [1] - All production processes were in deep losses. Coal - based profit was at - 272 yuan/ton, and losses for oil - based, methanol - based, and ethylene - based routes were 106.68 dollars/ton, 1459.34 yuan/ton, and 959.41 yuan/ton respectively [1] - The overall industrial chain operating load remained stable. The total ethylene glycol operating rate was 62.27%, with the oil - based device at 65.91% and the coal - based at 56.79% [1] - The polyester factory load was stable at 89.42%, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load was at 63.43%, showing no signs of peak - season boost [1] - East China main port inventory increased 3.6 tons to 54.2 tons, with Zhangjiagang inventory rising 1.2 tons to 17.58 tons. The arrival volume decreased 4.41 tons to 8.43 tons, indicating a slowdown in port pick - up [1] 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - Futures and spot prices decreased slightly, with the main contract down 0.25% and the East China spot price down 0.23% [4] - The basis widened 58.33%, the 1 - 5 spread increased 11.11%, the 5 - 9 spread decreased 3.70%, and the 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged [4] - Profits for all production processes were in the red, with coal - based profit rising 3.68%, ethylene - based 1.29%, and methanol - based 1.5% [4] - The overall ethylene glycol operating rate, coal - based, oil - based, polyester factory, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom loads remained unchanged [4] - East China main port inventory increased 7.18%, Zhangjiagang inventory 7.20%, and the arrival volume decreased 34.35% [4] 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On July 4, the morning East China ethylene glycol US dollar market negotiation was deadlocked, and the afternoon price was stable with no transactions reported [5] - The Shaanxi ethylene glycol spot price remained stable at around 3900 yuan/ton [5] - The South China market offer was stable at around 4420 yuan/ton [5] - A Saudi device outage boosted the market, but with terminal开机下滑, the market had a weak outlook on supply - demand, and the East China price was around 4360 yuan/ton [5] 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, production profits, domestic device operating rates, downstream polyester device operating rates, East China main port inventory, and total industry inventory [6][8][10]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX prices may continue to face pressure in the short term due to weak international oil prices leading to insufficient cost support, and the futures price is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern [2] - The downside space of PTA is limited. It may show a narrow - range fluctuation pattern under the game between cost and demand, with upstream PX weakening suppressing costs and downstream demand showing marginal improvement [2] - The polyester industry chain may present a weak reality pattern in the next two weeks. Cost - side downward pressure may be transmitted to the PTA link, but attention should be paid to the demand - side improvement's impact on inventory digestion and the potential start time of restocking [3] - Overall, PX may continue to be under pressure, while PTA may have limited decline or be in a range - bound consolidation due to demand growth [36] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary PTA & PX - On July 4, the PX main contract closed at 6,672.0 yuan/ton, down 1.01% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 170.0 yuan/ton; the PTA main contract closed at 4,710.0 yuan/ton, down 0.76% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 170.0 yuan/ton [2] - On July 4, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 68.85 US dollars/barrel, and WTI closed at 67.18 US dollars/barrel. The total transaction volume of Light Textile City was 696.0 million meters, and the 15 - day average transaction was 645.33 million meters [2] Polyester - On July 4, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,514.0 yuan/ton, down 0.76% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,710.0 yuan/ton, down 20.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 196.0 yuan/ton [3] - The PX futures price showed a trend of rising first and then falling this week. On July 4, it decreased by 0.98% to 6,672 yuan/ton compared with the previous period, and the PTA futures decreased by 0.77% to 4,710 yuan/ton during the same period, indicating a loosening of cost support [3] - The MA15 of the Light Textile City's trading volume continued to rise, reaching 645 million meters on July 4, hitting a new high in the observation period, showing signs of recovery in terminal textile demand [3] - All types of polyester fibers showed continuous inventory accumulation. The weekly inventory increase of DTY was 13% (28.6 days), FDY increased by 18.5% (22.4 days), and POY increased by 26% (21.7 days), all significantly higher than the five - year average level [3] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: The main contract price was 6,672 yuan/ton, down 1.01%; the trading volume was 241,111 lots, up 8.15%; the open interest was 123,806 lots, up 11.49% [4] - PTA futures: The main contract price was 4,710 yuan/ton, down 0.76%; the trading volume was 1,056,898 lots, down 0.66%; the open interest was 1,114,401 lots, down 1.38% [4] - Short - fiber futures: The main contract price was 6,514 yuan/ton, down 0.76%; the trading volume was 107,280 lots, up 8.95%; the open interest was 82,960 lots, down 5.71% [4] - Other prices: Brent crude oil main contract was 68.51 US dollars/barrel, down 0.49%; WTI was 66.5 US dollars/barrel, down 1.01%; CFR Japan naphtha was 577.38 US dollars/ton, unchanged; ethylene glycol was 4,370 yuan/ton, up 0.23%; polyester chips were 5,875 yuan/ton, down 0.51%; polyester bottle chips were 5,980 yuan/ton, down 0.33%; polyester POY was 6,920 yuan/ton, down 3.22%; polyester DTY was 8,200 yuan/ton, down 2.61%; polyester FDY was 7,180 yuan/ton, down 3.62% [4] - Processing spreads: Naphtha was 40.64 US dollars/ton, unchanged; PX was 271.29 US dollars/ton, unchanged; PTA was 261.72 yuan/ton, down 0.30%; polyester chips were - 108 yuan/ton, down 38.46%; polyester bottle chips were - 453 yuan/ton, down 4.62%; polyester short - fiber was 107 yuan/ton, down 27.21%; polyester POY was 37 yuan/ton, down 86.14%; polyester DTY was - 33 yuan/ton, down 117.65%; polyester FDY was - 203 yuan/ton, down 402.99% [5] - Light Textile City trading volume: The total volume was 696 million meters, up 30.58%; long - fiber fabric volume was 507 million meters, up 24.88%; short - fiber fabric volume was 191 million meters, up 52.80% [5] - Industrial chain load rates: PTA factories were at 75.86%, unchanged; polyester factories were at 89.42%, unchanged; Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms were at 63.43%, unchanged [5] - Inventory days: Polyester short - fiber was 7.99 days, up 2.83%; polyester POY was 21.7 days, up 26.16%; polyester FDY was 22.4 days, up 18.52%; polyester DTY was 28.6 days, up 13.04% [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations Macro Dynamics - On July 4, Atlanta Fed President Bostic said that the US economy may experience high inflation for a longer time [6] - On July 3, Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Taylor thought there would be five interest rate cuts in 2025 [6] - Starting from August 1, purchases of gold in cash exceeding 100,000 yuan will need to be reported [6] Supply - Demand (Demand) - On July 4, the total trading volume of Light Textile City was 696.0 million meters, a year - on - year increase of 30.58%. The trading volume of long - fiber fabrics was 507.0 million meters, and that of short - fiber fabrics was 191.0 million meters [7] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides charts including PX main futures and basis, PX spot price, PTA main futures and basis, PTA spot price, short - fiber main futures and basis, PX capacity utilization, PTA futures monthly spread, short - fiber futures monthly spread, PTA processing profit, industrial chain load rate, polyester short - fiber production and sales situation, polyester filament production and sales situation, China Light Textile City trading volume moving average, and polyester product inventory days [8][10][12]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The crude oil market is facing a game between accelerating supply return and weak demand recovery. OPEC+ accelerating production increase may drive the global crude oil market from destocking to a slight restocking phase, but the low OECD commercial inventory still supports the price. In the third quarter, the oil price may show a volatile downward pattern, and the fluctuation center is restricted by the trade - off between OPEC+'s actual production increase execution rate and the northern hemisphere's summer refinery operating rate [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - On July 4 - 5, the SC crude oil main contract price fell 1.03% to 503.5 yuan/barrel, while WTI and Brent prices remained stable at $67.18 and $68.85 per barrel respectively. The cross - regional spreads of SC with Brent and WTI narrowed, and the near - far month spread (SC continuous - continuous 3) also narrowed, indicating a marginal relief of the market's expectation of tight future supply [2]. - On the supply side, OPEC+ agreed to increase daily production by 548,000 barrels in August, accelerating production increase. Since April, the released production will reach 1.918 million barrels per day, significantly faster than the original plan. Saudi Arabia's official price premium strategies for August are differentiated, suggesting its intention to maintain regional supply balance through structural pricing [3]. - On the demand side, there are signs of marginal repair. The recovery of fuel supply at the UK's Lindsey refinery and India's plan to expand refinery capacity have improved short - term refinery demand, but the significant reduction in Brent crude oil speculative net long positions reflects doubts about the continuous upward space of oil prices [4]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: On July 4, 2025, SC futures price decreased by 0.55%, WTI decreased by 1.01%, and Brent decreased by 0.49%. Among spot prices, Oman, Victory, Dubai, ESPO, and Duri increased, while others had different degrees of decline. Spreads such as SC - Brent, SC - WTI, and Brent - WTI changed, and the SC continuous - continuous 3 spread decreased by 12.36%. The US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 0.93%, and the US refinery weekly operating rate increased by 0.21% [6]. - **Fuel Oil**: On July 4, 2025, FU futures price decreased by 0.70%, LU decreased by 0.06%, and NYMEX fuel oil increased by 1.75%. Among spot prices, some increased and some decreased. The Singapore high - low sulfur spread decreased by 1.86%, and the Chinese high - low sulfur spread increased by 2.99%. The Singapore fuel oil inventory increased by 3.91% [7]. 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Supply**: OPEC+ will increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, and some members' over - production has caused disputes. Saudi Aramco's move to sell power plant assets may indicate financial pressure [3][8]. - **Demand**: The UK's Lindsey refinery resumed fuel supply, and India plans to expand refinery capacity. Dubai Airlines resumed flights to Tehran, slightly alleviating geopolitical premiums [4][10]. - **Inventory**: The fuel oil futures warehouse receipt decreased by 10,000 tons, while the medium - sulfur crude oil and low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged [11]. - **Market Information**: Saudi Arabia adjusted the official selling prices of Arab light crude oil for different regions in August. The net long positions of gasoline speculators increased, while those of Brent crude oil decreased [11]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, US crude oil weekly production, OPEC crude oil production, and various inventory and operating rate data, which help to comprehensively understand the supply and demand situation of the oil market [13][15][17].