1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term oil price is likely to remain in a volatile pattern. The supply side has formed a new balance between the increase in US exports and India's oil source switch, but the expansion of Russian oil discounts may stimulate non - US buyers to replenish stocks. On the demand side, the high refinery operating rate coexists with the differentiation of terminal refined oil consumption. The reduction of gasoline inventory supports the oil price, while the concern of diesel inventory accumulation limits the upside space. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the continuity of OPEC+ production policy and the autumn maintenance rhythm of Northern Hemisphere refineries [5]. - The crude oil market presents a mixed situation of long and short factors. On the supply side, the increase in US exports, the resumption of the Friendship Pipeline, and India's procurement structure adjustment may increase market supply, but Norway's stable production and OPEC+ production cuts still support oil prices. On the demand side, the high operating rate of US refineries and the recovery of crude oil demand support consumption, but the high distillate oil inventory indicates weak diesel demand. Inventory depletion is good but shows regional differentiation. The increase in Cushing inventory suppresses WTI, while the decline in commercial inventory provides support. Geopolitical risks and changes in trade flows increase market uncertainty. International oil prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern [66]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes Analysis - On August 20, the SC crude oil main contract closed at 484.2 yuan/barrel, slightly down from the previous day. WTI and Brent closed at $62.0/barrel and $65.95/barrel respectively, continuing the weak consolidation. The SC - Brent spread widened to $1.47/barrel, and the SC - WTI spread widened to $5.42/barrel, indicating the continued valuation repair of domestic SC crude oil relative to international oil prices. The Brent - WTI spread rose to $3.95/barrel, and the tight supply pattern in the European market supported the Brent premium. The near - end contract of SC weakened, and the spread between consecutive 1 and consecutive 3 changed from +2.2 yuan/barrel the previous day to -3.7 yuan/barrel, showing the pressure of near - month delivery [2]. - The daily fluctuation range of the SC crude oil main contract narrowed to 481.9 - 488.1 yuan/barrel, and the closing price fell slightly by 0.87%, reflecting that the market trading sentiment tended to be cautious [2]. 3.1.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply side**: Norway's crude oil production in July remained at 1.958 million barrels per day, and the production of non - OPEC+ countries was stable. The crude oil supply of the Friendship Pipeline to Hungary and Slovakia resumed, and the Eurasian land logistics disturbance was alleviated. Indian state - owned refineries reduced their purchases of Russian oil (a 19% month - on - month decrease in July) and turned to Middle Eastern and US oil sources, and the Russian oil export structure faced adjustment pressure. US crude oil exports are expected to rebound to more than 4 million barrels per day in August and September, and the discount of WTI relative to Middle Eastern oil stimulates Asian demand [3]. - **Demand side**: The operating rate of US refineries rose to 96.6% (previous value 96.4%), the demand for crude oil processing strengthened, and the derived demand for crude oil production jumped to 20.738 million barrels per day (previous value 19.813 million barrels). The operating rate of Japanese refineries rose to 86.9% (previous value 84.4%), but the commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 27,777 kiloliters, and the replenishment of gasoline and kerosene was active. Diesel demand showed fatigue, and the derived demand for US distillate oil production slightly decreased to 5.1193 million barrels per day (previous value 5.142 million barrels) [3]. - **Inventory side**: US commercial crude oil inventories plummeted by 6.014 million barrels (expected to decrease by 1.759 million barrels). The larger - than - expected decline was mainly due to a large decrease in imports of 1.218 million barrels and an increase in derived demand for production. Cushing inventories increased by 0.419 million barrels against the trend (previous value +0.045 million barrels), and inventory accumulation at the delivery location suppressed WTI. EIA data showed a significant reduction in US crude oil inventories, but the increase in Cushing inventories and the differentiation of refined oil inventories limited the rebound momentum of oil prices. The differentiation of refined oil inventories was significant. Gasoline inventories decreased by 2.72 million barrels more than expected, and refined oil inventories increased significantly by 2.343 million barrels, indicating weak diesel demand and the support of gasoline consumption by the summer travel season [4]. 3.1.3 Price Trend Judgment The short - term oil price may still maintain a volatile pattern. On the supply side, the increase in US exports and the switch of Indian oil sources form a new balance, but the expansion of Russian oil discounts may stimulate non - US buyers to replenish stocks. On the demand side, the high operating rate of refineries coexists with the differentiation of terminal refined oil consumption. The reduction of gasoline inventory provides support for the oil price, while the concern of diesel inventory accumulation limits the upside space. In the medium term, pay attention to the continuity of OPEC+ production policy and the autumn maintenance rhythm of Northern Hemisphere refineries [5]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring 3.2.1 Crude Oil - **Futures prices**: On August 20, 2025, the SC futures price was 482.80 yuan/barrel, down 1.40 yuan or -0.29% from the previous day; the WTI futures price was $62.84/barrel, up $0.84 or 1.35%; the Brent futures price was $67.04/barrel, up $1.09 or 1.65% [7]. - **Spot prices**: The OPEC basket price remained unchanged at $68.45/barrel. The Brent spot price increased by $0.02 to $67.64/barrel, the Oman spot price increased by $0.76 to $68.82/barrel, the Shengli spot price increased by $0.22 to $64.21/barrel, the Dubai spot price increased by $0.72 to $68.89/barrel, the ESPO spot price increased by $0.41 to $62.13/barrel, and the Duri spot price increased by $0.01 to $67.46/barrel [7]. - **Spreads**: The SC - Brent spread decreased from $1.47 to $0.21, a decrease of 85.71%; the SC - WTI spread decreased from $5.42 to $4.41, a decrease of 18.63%; the Brent - WTI spread increased from $3.95 to $4.20, an increase of 6.33%; the spread between SC consecutive and consecutive 3 decreased from -3.70 yuan/barrel to -4.20 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 13.51% [7]. - **Other assets**: The US dollar index decreased slightly by 0.04 to 98.22, a decrease of 0.04%; the S&P 500 index decreased by 15.59 points to 6,395.78, a decrease of 0.24%; the DAX index decreased by 146.10 points to 24,276.97, a decrease of 0.60%; the RMB exchange rate remained unchanged at 7.18 [7]. - **Inventory and production data**: US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6.014 million barrels to 420.684 million barrels, a decrease of 1.41%; Cushing inventories increased by 0.419 million barrels to 23.47 million barrels, an increase of 1.82%; the US strategic reserve inventory increased by 0.0223 million barrels to 400.3425 million barrels, an increase of 0.06%; API inventories decreased by 2.417 million barrels to 450.796 million barrels, a decrease of 0.53%. The weekly operating rate of US refineries increased by 0.20 percentage points to 96.60%, an increase of 0.21%, and the crude oil processing volume of US refineries increased by 0.028 million barrels per day to 17.208 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.16% [7]. 3.2.2 Fuel Oil - **Futures prices**: The FU futures price was 2,718.00 yuan/ton, up 32.00 yuan or 1.19%; the LU futures price was 3,443.00 yuan/ton, down 23.00 yuan or -0.66%; the NYMEX fuel oil price remained unchanged at 225.67 cents/gallon [8]. - **Spot prices**: Most spot prices remained unchanged, while the high - sulfur 180: Singapore (near - month) price increased by $2.55 to $401.34/ton, and the Russian M100 CIF price decreased by $5.00 to $437.00/ton [8]. - **Paper prices**: The high - sulfur 380: Singapore (near - month) price increased by $2.30 to $388.59/ton [8]. - **Spreads**: The Singapore high - low sulfur spread data was missing; the Chinese high - low sulfur spread decreased by 55.00 yuan to 725.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.05%; the LU - Singapore FOB (0.5%S) spread decreased by 23.00 yuan to -1,968.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.18%; the FU - Singapore 380CST spread increased by 32.00 yuan to -1,938.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.62% [8]. - **Platts prices**: The Platts (380CST) price decreased by $14.30 to $387.97/ton, a decrease of 3.55%; the Platts (180CST) price decreased by $11.18 to $401.70/ton, a decrease of 2.71% [8]. - **Inventory data**: Singapore inventories decreased by 1.674 million tons to 24.645 million tons, a decrease of 6.36%. US distillate inventories (<15ppm) increased by 2.69 million barrels to 106,744.00 thousand barrels, an increase of 2.59%; US distillate inventories (15ppm - 500ppm) increased by 0.155 million barrels to 3,384.00 thousand barrels, an increase of 4.80%; US distillate inventories (>500ppm) decreased by 0.503 million barrels to 5,899.00 thousand barrels, a decrease of 7.86%; US distillate DOE inventories increased by 2.343 million barrels to 116,028.00 thousand barrels, an increase of 2.06%; US residue - containing DOE inventories increased by 0.077 million barrels to 19,809.00 thousand barrels, an increase of 0.39% [8]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretations 3.3.1 Supply - On August 20, the EIA put - into - production crude oil volume in the US for the week ending August 15 was 0.028 million barrels per day, down from the previous value of 0.056 million barrels per day. - The crude oil supply of the Friendship Pipeline to Hungary and Slovakia resumed. - Indian state - owned refineries reduced their purchases of Russian oil in July (a 19% month - on - month decrease), and will turn to Middle Eastern or US oil sources in August and September to replace Russian oil [3][10]. - US crude oil exports are expected to exceed 4 million barrels per day in August and September, reaching the highest level since the beginning of the year [14]. 3.3.2 Demand - For the week ending August 15 in the US, the EIA derived demand for distillate fuel oil production was 5.1193 million barrels per day, down from the previous value of 5.142 million barrels per day; the derived demand for motor gasoline production was 9.8616 million barrels per day, up from the previous value of 9.8247 million barrels per day; the derived demand for crude oil production was 20.738 million barrels per day, up from the previous value of 19.813 million barrels per day. - The EIA refinery utilization rate was 96.6%, higher than the expected 95.7% and the previous value of 96.4%. - The EIA refined oil imports were 0.074 million barrels per day, down from the previous value of 0.215 million barrels per day; the EIA refined oil production was 0.193 million barrels per day, up from the previous value of 0.032 million barrels per day; the EIA gasoline production was -0.259 million barrels per day, down from the previous value of 0.01 million barrels per day [11]. 3.3.3 Inventory - For the week ending August 15 in the US, the EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 0.0223 million barrels to 22.3 million barrels; Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 0.419 million barrels to 41.9 million barrels; refined oil inventories increased by 2.343 million barrels to 234.3 million barrels, higher than the expected 92.8 million barrels; gasoline inventories decreased by 2.72 million barrels to -272 million barrels, more than the expected decrease of 0.915 million barrels; heating oil inventories decreased by 0.503 million barrels to -50.3 million barrels; new - formula gasoline inventories remained unchanged at 0 million barrels; crude oil inventories decreased by 6.014 million barrels to -601.4 million barrels, more than the expected decrease of 1.759 million barrels [12]. - As of the week ending August 16, Japanese commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 27,777 kiloliters to 11,918,475 kiloliters, gasoline inventories increased by 31,339 kiloliters to 1,500,799 kiloliters, and kerosene inventories increased by 50,424 kiloliters to 2,496,963 kiloliters. The average operating rate of Japanese refineries was 86.9%, up from 84.4% the previous week [13]. - For the week ending August 15 in the US, API crude oil inventories decreased by 2.417 million barrels to 450.796 million barrels, more than the expected decrease of 1.587 million barrels [13]. 3.3.4 Market Information - After a sluggish summer, US crude oil exports have begun to rebound as US domestic refineries start preventive maintenance and the Trump administration threatens to impose tariffs on India for purchasing Russian oil. US exports in August and September are expected to exceed 4 million barrels per day, reaching the highest level since the beginning of the year. In Asia, WTI is cheaper than Middle Eastern crude oil, and sales in the next two weeks should continue to be boosted as traders start selling crude oil for October loading [14]. - As of the 2:30 close, the Shanghai gold main contract rose 0.52% to 777 yuan/gram, the Shanghai silver main contract rose 0.60% to 9,160 yuan/kilogram, and the SC crude oil main contract rose 0.95% to 487 yuan/barrel; in another closing data, the Shanghai gold main contract fell 0.36% to 773 yuan/gram, the Shanghai silver main contract fell 1.65% to 9,061 yuan/kilogram, and the SC crude oil main contract fell 0.87% to 481 yuan/barrel [14]. - The increase in India's purchases is due to the larger discount of Russian oil [14]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, the SC - WTI spread statistics, US weekly crude oil production, US and Canadian oil rig counts (Baker Hughes), OPEC crude oil production, global regional oil rig counts (Baker Hughes), US refinery weekly operating rates, US refinery crude oil processing

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Data is generally bullish, driving short - term oil price increases, but weakening supply - demand dynamics limit the rebound space. Brent futures rose 1.60% to above $66 last week, but faced significant pressure from the EMA50 resistance level on the technical side. In the medium term, OPEC+ accelerating production increases, the recovery of the number of US rigs to 412, and the delay of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations will suppress risk appetite. It is expected that WTI will maintain range - bound oscillations in the short term. An upward breakthrough requires further fermentation of geopolitical risk premiums, and the downside risk comes from India's actual diversion scale exceeding expectations and a sharp drop in refinery loads [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Inventory Situation Viewpoints - As of the week ending August 15, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6.014 million barrels, a 1.41% decline, the largest single - week drop in three months. Cushing inventories increased by 419,000 barrels but remained within the five - year average range. Refinery operating rates unexpectedly rose to 96.6% (expected 95.7%), indicating that refineries are accelerating work to complete tasks before the summer maintenance. Net exports of refined oil products increased to 5.211 million barrels per day, a record high. The increase in exports and processing volume drove continuous inventory reduction, but the counter - seasonal increase in distillate inventories to 116 million barrels (+2.06%) reflects weak diesel demand [2] - US crude oil production jumped by 55,000 barrels per day to 1.3382 million barrels per day, the fastest growth rate in five months. The current supply contradiction lies in the export end: US weekly crude oil exports soared by 795,000 barrels to 4.372 million barrels per day, opening an arbitrage window for Asian buyers. Geopolitical events have strengthened alternative trade flows. The Trump administration plans to impose a 50% tariff on India, forcing India to adjust its procurement path. However, the Russian ambassador to India said that Russian oil remains irreplaceable with a 5% discount. Attention should be paid to the flow direction of India's crude oil from August to September. High - load refinery operations are not sustainable, and the equipment maintenance season will start in early September. Current profit compression may suppress restocking efforts [2] Weekly Data Tracking - WTI was at $63 on August 15, unchanged from August 8, with a - 0.33% change rate compared to July 25. US weekly crude oil production increased by 55,000 barrels per day to 13.382 million barrels per day, a 0.41% increase. The four - week average of US weekly net crude oil imports remained unchanged at 2.887 million barrels per day. US refinery crude oil processing volume (four - week average) increased by 28,000 barrels per day to 17.208 million barrels per day, a 0.16% increase. The US refinery weekly operating rate increased by 0.21% to 97%. US weekly net exports of refined oil products increased by 31,000 barrels per day to 5.211 million barrels per day, a 0.60% increase. US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding SPR) decreased by 6 million barrels to 421 million barrels, a 1.41% decline. US Cushing crude oil inventories (excluding SPR) increased by 1.82% to 23 million barrels. US strategic crude oil inventories remained unchanged at 403 million barrels. US gasoline inventories decreased by 3 million barrels to 224 million barrels, a 1.20% decline. US distillate inventories increased by 2 million barrels to 116 million barrels, a 2.06% increase. US aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 1.02% to 43 million barrels. US other oil product inventories (excluding ethanol) decreased by 0.04% to 326 million barrels [5] Appendix: Big - Model Inference Process - As of August 15, 2025, the reduction in US commercial crude oil inventories was much larger than expected, indicating a rapid de - stocking process, which is a potentially bullish factor. US crude oil weekly production increased by 55,000 barrels per day, the largest increase since March 2025, which may put pressure on the supply side. The refinery operating rate was higher than expected, indicating strong refining demand, which may explain the decline in inventories. Gasoline inventories declined more than expected, while distillate inventories increased, suggesting weak diesel demand or increased supply [53] - The four - week average of net imports remained unchanged, but single - week imports decreased by 1.218 million barrels, and exports soared to 4.372 million barrels per day, the highest since April, indicating strong export demand and supporting the decline in inventories. The US threat to impose tariffs on India may affect future supply - demand balance. The refinery maintenance season may affect processing volume, and long - term OPEC+ production increases and US production growth may bring pressure. Geopolitical factors and US election policy changes may also affect oil price trends [53][54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of pure benzene has marginally improved, but there are still contradictions between high - level hidden inventory and weak terminal consumption. The demand during the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" remains a key variable [3]. - The styrene market is generally loose, with new production capacity being continuously released. Although there are signs of marginal improvement, new production capacity and the weakening basis point to the problems of oversupply and difficulty in destocking [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Fundamentals - **Price**: On August 20, the styrene main contract closed up 0.82% at 7,285 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 10 (+54 yuan/ton); the pure benzene main contract closed up 0.37% at 6,205 yuan/ton [2]. - **Cost**: On August 20, Brent crude oil closed at 61.8 (-1.7 dollars/barrel), WTI crude oil closed at 65.8 (-0.8 dollars/barrel), and the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 6,070 yuan/ton (-35 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Inventory**: Styrene sample factory inventory was 20.9 tons (-0.3 tons), a 1.3% month - on - month destocking; Jiangsu port inventory was 14.9 tons (-1.0 tons), a 6.42% month - on - month destocking. Pure benzene port inventory was 14.6 tons (-1.7 tons), a 10.43% month - on - month destocking [2]. - **Supply**: A new styrene plant in Shandong was put into operation, and the overall supply remained stable. The weekly styrene output was 36.9 tons (+1.0 tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate was 78.2% (+0.5%) [2]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rates of downstream 3S varied. The EPS capacity utilization rate was 58.1% (+14.4%), the ABS capacity utilization rate was 71.1% (+0%), and the PS capacity utilization rate was 56.7% (+1.7%). The EPS operating rate recovered, and the ABS and PS operating rates continued to increase [2]. 3.1.2 Views - **Pure Benzene**: The supply side has been running strongly recently. The supply has increased, and the demand shows structural differentiation. Although the supply - demand balance has marginally improved, there are still problems such as high - level hidden inventory and weak terminal consumption [3]. - **Styrene**: The market is generally loose, with new production capacity continuously released. The demand improvement is limited, and the basis weakening reflects the intensification of supply - demand mismatch and weakening market sentiment [4]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Data Monitoring - **Styrene and Pure Benzene Prices**: The styrene futures main contract increased by 0.82%, the pure benzene futures main contract increased by 0.37%, and the styrene basis decreased by 118.52% [6]. - **Styrene and Pure Benzene Output and Inventory**: Styrene output increased by 2.76%, pure benzene output decreased by 0.18%. Styrene and pure benzene inventories decreased to varying degrees [7]. - **Operating Rate**: The capacity utilization rates of some downstream products of pure benzene and styrene increased, such as the EPS capacity utilization rate increased by 14.41% [8]. 3.3 Industry News - China's shale cracking raw material supply is affected by trade and production capacity, pushing up naphtha costs. China is expected to increase naphtha imports to a record high in 2025 [9]. - The global diesel shortage supports refinery profits, having a structural impact on the crude oil and chemical chains [9]. - India is accelerating petrochemical expansion to counter China's dominant position [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The PTA price is expected to fluctuate weakly due to weak cost and cautious demand expectations. The supply of PX and PTA may increase due to high - device operation rates and new production capacities, while the demand lacks strong support, and inventory may accumulate, putting downward pressure on prices. However, seasonal changes in demand and device changes need to be monitored [1][38]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 PTA & PX - On August 19, the PX主力contract closed at 6,774.0 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 165.0 yuan/ton. The PTA主力contract closed at 4,734.0 yuan/ton, down 0.25% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 64.0 yuan/ton [2]. - The cost - end: On August 19, the Brent crude oil主力contract closed at 66.46 US dollars/barrel, and WTI at 62.58 US dollars/barrel. The demand - end: On August 19, the total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 487.0 million meters, and the 15 - day average transaction was 485.47 million meters [2]. - Supply side: The operation rates of PX and PTA devices remain high, and with the gradual implementation of new production capacities, the pressure of increased industry supply may continue to be released. The cost - end drive of PX is weak under the background of low - level fluctuations in crude oil prices, and the processing fees of PTA are suppressed by over - capacity, and the willingness of factories to increase production may further exacerbate the supply - loosening situation [2]. - Demand side: The transactions in the Light Textile City maintain a weak and stable pattern. Although the downstream polyester operation rate has not weakened significantly, the fabric orders lack substantial improvement. The traditional textile peak season is approaching, but the demand has not shown a continuous improvement, and the terminal negative feedback pressure continues to be transmitted upstream, making it difficult for the PTA demand side to form effective support [2]. - Inventory side: The PTA factory inventory is restricted by the weak basis structure, and the social inventory continues to accumulate. Currently, there are not many active production - reduction actions by factories, and there is still pressure on the price ceiling [3]. 3.1.2 Polyester - On August 19, the short - fiber主力contract closed at 6,432.0 yuan/ton, down 0.46% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,500.0 yuan/ton, up 20.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 68.0 yuan/ton [4]. - Supply side: The PX price has recently shown high - level fluctuations (ranging from 6,614 to 6,832 yuan/ton from August 11 - 19), but the PTA price has risen steadily (up 1.4% to 4,746 yuan/ton during the same period), indicating that the cost - end support is weakening but the downstream acceptance is good [4]. - Demand side: The 15 - day moving average transaction volume of the Light Textile City has continuously rebounded from 479 million meters to 485 million meters, reflecting the gradual recovery of terminal textile demand [4]. - Inventory side: There is a structural differentiation in inventory. The inventory days of polyester staple fiber (7.25 days) are significantly higher than the five - year average (4.96 days), while the inventory of polyester filament POY (16.1 days) is lower than the average (20.4 days), and the inventory of FDY/DTY is basically the same as the historical average. The high - inventory pressure of short - fiber may restrict the overall increase, and continue to pay attention to polyester production - reduction information [4]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: The主力contract price on August 19 was 6,774 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from the previous day; the成交volume increased by 68.14%, and the持仓volume increased by 6.83%. PX spot: The CFR price at the main Chinese port remained unchanged at 833.33 US dollars/ton, and the FOB price in South Korea increased by 0.25% [5]. - PTA futures: The主力contract price on August 19 was 4,734 yuan/ton, down 0.25% from the previous day; the成交volume decreased by 16.25%, and the持仓volume decreased by 2.41%. PTA spot: The CFR price at the main Chinese port remained unchanged at 623 US dollars/ton [5]. - Short - fiber futures: The主力contract price on August 19 was 6,432 yuan/ton, down 0.46% from the previous day; the成交volume increased by 7.48%, and the持仓volume decreased by 0.53%. Short - fiber spot: The mainstream price in the East China market increased by 0.08% [5]. - Other prices: The prices of Brent crude oil, US crude oil, CFR Japanese naphtha, ethylene glycol, polyester chips, polyester bottle flakes, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY remained unchanged or changed slightly on August 19 compared with the previous day [5]. - Processing spreads: The processing spreads of naphtha decreased by 1.09%, and the processing spreads of PTA decreased by 1.57%, while the processing spreads of other products remained unchanged [6]. - Light Textile City transaction volume: On August 19, the total transaction volume was 487 million meters, a decrease of 4.32% compared with the previous day, with the long - fiber fabric volume decreasing by 2.72% and the short - fiber fabric volume decreasing by 9.71% [6]. - Industrial chain load rates: The load rates of PTA factories, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms remained unchanged on August 19 [6]. - Inventory days: From August 7 to August 14, the inventory days of polyester staple fiber, POY, FDY, and DTY all decreased [6]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Macroeconomic Dynamics - On August 19, due to the UK inflation data being higher than expected, traders reduced their bets on the Bank of England's interest - rate cuts, believing that there would be no further cuts this year [7]. - On August 18, Fed's Daly said to wait for more data, and the number of interest - rate cuts may be less or more. It is still a good prediction to cut interest rates twice this year; Goolsbee said that the latest PPI and CPI inflation data were disturbing. If signs show that inflation is not in a spiral in September or later in the fall, interest rates can be cut. The market reduced its bets on interest - rate cuts but still expected a cut in September and another cut in 2025 [7]. - On August 18, Hong Kong's Financial Secretary Paul Chan said that the plan for Hong Kong to develop an international gold trading center would be announced within the year [7]. 3.3.2 Supply - Demand (Demand) - On August 19, the total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 487.0 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 4.32%, with the long - fiber fabric transaction volume at 393.0 million meters and the short - fiber fabric transaction volume at 93.0 million meters [8]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including PX and PTA主力futures and basis, PX and PTA spot prices, PX capacity utilization, PTA futures monthly spreads, PTA processing profits, industrial chain load rates, polyester short - fiber and long - fiber sales situations, Light Textile City transaction volume moving average, and polyester product inventory days [9][11][13].

Report Overview - Report Title: Supply and Demand Improve, but the Actual Magnitude is Limited. Lithium Carbonate is Difficult to Maintain Long - Term and Significant Increases - Lithium Carbonate Industry Chain Weekly Data Report [1] - Report Date: August 20, 2025 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The shutdown of the Jianxiawo Mine has brought lithium carbonate prices to a new level, and the marginal change from passive inventory accumulation to passive inventory depletion in lithium carbonate supply and demand has significantly improved the market expectations in the first half of the year, with the price center expected to rise. However, the expected annual inventory depletion of 1 - 2 million tons after the shutdown is limited compared to the current market inventory of 14 million tons. If the market continues to rise significantly, it may open the profit window for imported lithium mines such as those from Australia and Africa, quickly making up for the supply reduction caused by the shutdown of the Jianxiawo Mine and attracting hedging funds, so it may experience short - term significant increases but is difficult to maintain in the long term [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Report Summary 3.1.1 Fundamental Overview - Lithium Ore: The price of spodumene has risen rapidly, leading the increase in ore prices. Affected by administrative orders in Jiangxi and Qinghai, the operating rates of lithium mica and salt lake sectors have significantly declined in July. After the confirmation of the shutdown of Jianxiawo, the market demand for lithium mica has significantly decreased, and the price of spodumene, as an alternative, has led the increase in the lithium ore market. Attention should be paid to the quantity of imported spodumene supplemented due to high prices [3]. - Lithium Salt: It has continued to take advantage of the situation, and the upper integer price levels may be the targets of long - positions. The news of the shutdown of Jianxiawo last week pushed the lithium carbonate LC futures contract to the price range of 80,000 yuan. The marginal reduction may change the domestic lithium carbonate supply - demand from passive inventory accumulation to passive inventory depletion. The market long - positions continue to take advantage of the market rumors of the shutdown of the salt lake sector to drive up prices, with the upper levels of 90,000 and 100,000 yuan being the next targets of long - positions. However, with a high inventory of 14 million tons, it is difficult for lithium carbonate to maintain high prices in the long term [3]. - Cathode Materials and Lithium Batteries: The impact of anti - involution is gradually fading. The impact of anti - involution focused on the new energy vehicle market is gradually fading. Recently, lithium carbonate has been indirectly affected by the sentiment of industries such as photovoltaics, with limited substantial impact [3]. 3.1.2 Market Summary - The shutdown of the Jianxiawo Mine has brought lithium carbonate prices to a new level. The marginal change in supply and demand has improved market expectations, but the expected inventory depletion is limited compared to the current inventory. If the market rises significantly, it may attract imported lithium mines and hedging funds, making it difficult to maintain long - term high prices [4]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet 3.2.1 Lithium Carbonate Balance Sheet - Slowing Inventory Accumulation - From July 2024 to July 2025, the supply, demand, import, export, inventory change, and cumulative balance of lithium carbonate showed different trends. For example, in July 2025, the supply was 81,530 tons, demand was 96,275 tons, import was 18,000 tons, export was 573 tons, inventory change was 2,682 tons, and the cumulative balance was 164,565 tons [8]. 3.2.2 Lithium Hydroxide Balance Sheet - From August 2024 to July 2025, the supply, demand, import, export, inventory change, and cumulative balance of lithium hydroxide also showed different trends. For example, in July 2025, the supply was 25,170 tons, demand was 22,969 tons, import was 750 tons, export was 6,100 tons, inventory change was - 3,149 tons, and the cumulative balance was 25,163 tons [12]. 3.3 Upstream Ore Supply, Demand, and Price 3.3.1 Spodumene Import - From December 2023 to June 2025, the import volume and average import price of lithium concentrate from different countries (Australia, Brazil, etc.) showed different trends. For example, in June 2025, the total import volume was 427,626 tons, with 255,506 tons from Australia and 39,811 tons from Brazil, and the average import price was 639 US dollars per ton [19]. 3.3.2 Chinese Lithium Ore - Spodumene Quotation Leading the Increase - From December 2023 to July 2025, the production of sample lithium mica mines and spodumene mines showed different trends. For example, in July 2025, the production of lithium mica was 16,100 tons with a month - on - month decrease of 4.17%, and the production of spodumene was 6,500 tons with a month - on - month increase of 0.78% [24]. 3.4 Lithium Salt Supply, Demand, and Price 3.4.1 Lithium Salt Spot and Futures Prices - Obvious Impact of Lithium Ore Shutdown - From July 1, 2025, to August 15, 2025, the prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and the price differences between them showed different trends. For example, on August 15, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 84,000 yuan, industrial - grade was 83,000 yuan, battery - grade lithium hydroxide was 77,875 yuan, the difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 1,000 yuan, and the difference between lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide was 6,125 yuan [27]. 3.4.2 Production Cost and Profit - Spodumene Expected to Supplement Market Gap - From July 9, 2025, to August 15, 2025, the production costs and profits of lithium carbonate produced from spodumene, low - grade mica, and high - grade mica showed different trends. For example, on August 15, 2025, the production cost of lithium carbonate from spodumene was 73,053 yuan per ton, with a profit of 10,947 yuan; the production cost from low - grade mica was 91,674 yuan per ton, with a loss of 7,674 yuan; and the production cost from high - grade mica was 53,983 yuan per ton, with a profit of 30,017 yuan [41]. 3.4.3 Lithium Carbonate Production - From July 2023 to July 2025, the weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate showed different trends. For example, in July 2025, the total monthly production was 81,530 tons, a year - on - year increase of 26% and a month - on - month increase of 4% [50]. 3.4.4 Operating Rate - Obvious Decline in Operating Rates of Mica and Salt Lake Sectors in July - From July 2022 to July 2025, the operating rates of lithium salt, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide showed different trends. The operating rates of lithium carbonate production from different raw materials (spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake) also showed different trends [52][55]. 3.4.5 Lithium Carbonate Monthly Import Volume - From December 2021 to June 2025, the total import volume of lithium carbonate and the import volumes from Argentina and Chile showed different trends. For example, in June 2025, the total import volume was 17,698 tons, with 5,094 tons from Argentina and 11,853 tons from Chile [60]. 3.4.6 Lithium Carbonate Inventory - Attention Needed on the Sustainability of Inventory Depletion - From December 2022 to July 2025, the inventory of lithium carbonate in downstream and smelting plants, weekly inventory, and the number of registered futures warehouse receipts showed different trends [62][63][65]. 3.5 Lithium Salt Downstream Production and Demand 3.5.1 Lithium Iron Phosphate - Slowing Production Growth - From November 2019 to July 2025, the production and operating rate of lithium iron phosphate showed different trends. For example, in July 2025, the production was 290,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 50.00% and a month - on - month increase of 1.86%, and the operating rate was 57.00% [70]. 3.5.2 Ternary Materials Production and Operating Rate - From December 2023 to July 2025, the production and operating rate of ternary materials showed different trends. For example, in July 2025, the production was 68,640 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.70% and a month - on - month increase of 5.80% [75]. 3.5.3 Ternary Materials Import and Export Volume - From December 2021 to June 2025, the import, export, and net import volumes of ternary materials showed different trends. For example, in June 2025, the import volume was 5,349 tons, the export volume was 10,636 tons, and the net import volume was - 5,287 tons [80]. 3.5.4 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - From November 2021 to July 2025, the production of pure - electric vehicles, plug - in hybrid vehicles, and the inventory warning index of automobile dealers showed different trends. For example, in July 2025, the production of pure - electric vehicles was 807,000, the production of plug - in hybrid vehicles was 436,000, and the inventory warning index was 57.2 [81].

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The increase in ethylene glycol plant capacity is pressuring the fundamentals, and the rebound height will continue to be limited. Although the futures and spot prices have risen, the accumulation of inventory and the narrowing of the basis may suppress further price increases. The rise in the supply - side operating rate may bring more supply, while the demand side shows no improvement, and the increasing inventory pressure may limit the upside potential of prices. The decline in positions and trading volume indicates insufficient market momentum, and the price may experience short - term fluctuations or even face downward pressure [2][3][24]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Market Data**: The price of the ethylene glycol main contract increased by 32 yuan/ton to 4424 yuan/ton, with a 0.73% increase. The spot price in East China rebounded by 40 yuan/ton to 4475 yuan/ton. The basis narrowed by 32 yuan/ton to 16 yuan/ton, indicating that the futures price rose faster than the spot price. The position of the main contract decreased by 17,426 lots to 115,385 lots, and the trading volume shrank by 27.6% to 80,018 lots, suggesting that some funds left the market during the price rebound [2][5]. - **Supply - side**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate increased by 0.4% to 64.47%, with the coal - based operating rate significantly increasing by 1.1% to 65.12%, while the oil - based operating rate remained unchanged at 64.13%. Despite the coal - based profit remaining at a deep loss of - 370 yuan/ton for a week, the restart of plants promoted a marginal increase in supply [2]. - **Demand - side**: The load rate of polyester factories remained stable at 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained at 63.43%. Downstream demand was rigid but lacked growth drivers, and polyester procurement of ethylene glycol was mainly for replenishing inventory based on rigid demand [2]. - **Inventory - side**: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased by 5.9 tons to 48.57 tons, and the inventory in Zhangjiagang soared by 40.6% to 18 tons. The arrival volume decreased by 6.7 tons to 10.17 tons, indicating that the port inventory accumulation was mainly due to the decline in shipping volume rather than concentrated arrivals. The rapidly increasing inventory pressure may suppress the increase in spot prices [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Price and Spread**: The main contract price of ethylene glycol futures increased by 32 yuan/ton to 4424 yuan/ton, and the spot price in East China increased by 40 yuan/ton to 4475 yuan/ton. The basis decreased from 48 to 16 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 9 yuan/ton to - 34 yuan/ton, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 74 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 6 yuan/ton to - 40 yuan/ton [5]. - **Profit and Operating Rate**: The coal - based profit remained at - 370 yuan/ton. The overall ethylene glycol operating rate increased by 0.4% to 64.5%, the coal - based operating rate increased by 1.1% to 65.1%, and the oil - based operating rate remained unchanged at 64.1%. The load of polyester factories and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged [5]. - **Inventory and Arrival Volume**: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased by 5.9 tons to 48.6 tons, the inventory in Zhangjiagang increased by 5.2 tons to 18 tons, and the arrival volume decreased by 6.7 tons to 10.17 tons [5]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - On August 19, the spot price of the ethylene glycol market in Shaanxi remained stable, with the market average price around 3990 yuan/ton for self - pick - up. The supply from Shaanxi remained stable, and downstream purchases were also stable. - On August 19, the mainstream market price increased slightly, but the quotes of holders in South China remained stable. The market supply was sufficient, and the overall trading atmosphere was average, with the current price around 4500 yuan/ton for delivery. - On August 19, international crude oil prices rose and then fell, and the cost - side support was unstable. The domestic operating rate of ethylene glycol increased, but the spot circulation tightened, and the basis of ethylene glycol strengthened. The current negotiated price in East China was around 4464 yuan/ton [6]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, ethylene glycol inventory at the main ports in East China (weekly), and total ethylene glycol industry inventory [7][9][11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil prices are expected to maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern. Upside is constrained by weakening marginal demand, while downside is supported by short - term geopolitical premiums. Supply - side factors and demand - side concerns, along with the uncertainty of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, lead to a lack of continuous impetus in the capital market [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - On August 19, the closing price of the domestic SC crude oil futures main contract was 484.2 yuan/barrel, down 0.47% from the previous trading day. The prices of WTI and Brent crude oil futures remained flat at $62.58/barrel and $66.46/barrel respectively. The spreads of SC to Brent and WTI narrowed by $0.35. The SC continuous - to - third spread changed from contango to backwardation, with a decline of 268.18% [2]. 2. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes Supply - Geopolitical conflicts and producer policies dominate supply disruptions. Oil transportation from Kazakhstan to Germany via the Russian Friendship Pipeline was briefly interrupted. Angola plans to cut exports to 994,000 barrels per day in October. The Volgograd refinery of Russia's Lukoil was suspended due to an attack, which may suppress Russia's refined oil export capacity. India's July imports of Russian crude oil decreased, but state - owned refineries turned to Middle Eastern or American oil sources, which may indirectly support OPEC+ export shares [3]. Demand - The seasonal demand peak is nearing its end. The decline in US API gasoline inventories narrowed (- 956,000 barrels), and refined oil inventories increased, indicating weakening travel demand. The US natural gas price dropped to a nine - month low, which may suppress the demand for fuel oil for power generation. The refinery operating rate increased marginally, but its support for oil prices was limited [3]. Inventory - US API data showed that in the week ending August 15, crude oil inventories decreased by 2.417 million barrels (expected to decrease by 1.587 million barrels), the decline in Cushing inventories narrowed to 112,000 barrels, and refined oil inventories increased by 535,000 barrels. The domestic Shanghai Futures Exchange's crude oil futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 4.767 million barrels, with no short - term delivery pressure [3]. 3. Price Trend Judgment - Crude oil prices will maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern. The upside is limited by weakening marginal demand, and the downside is supported by short - term geopolitical premiums. Supply - side factors such as infrastructure attacks and OPEC+ production cuts provide bottom support, while demand - side issues like seasonal weakness in US gasoline consumption and India's import structure adjustment raise doubts about the actual digestion capacity of the market. The repeated expectations of Russia - Ukraine peace talks intensify market wait - and - see sentiment [4]. 4. Industry Chain Price Monitoring Crude Oil - Futures prices of SC, WTI, and Brent changed on August 19 compared to August 18. Spot prices of various crude oil types also had different changes. Spreads such as SC - Brent, SC - WTI, and Brent - WTI had corresponding fluctuations. Other assets like the US dollar index, S&P 500, DAX index, and RMB exchange rate also showed changes. Inventory data of US commercial crude oil, Cushing inventories, and strategic reserves had different trends, and the US refinery operating rate and crude oil processing volume also changed [6]. Fuel Oil - Futures prices of FU, LU, and NYMEX fuel oil, as well as spot prices of various fuel oil types, had different changes. Spreads such as Singapore's high - low sulfur spread and China's high - low sulfur spread also fluctuated. Inventory data of Platts and various regions' fuel oil had corresponding trends [7]. 5. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation Supply - India's imports of Russian crude oil decreased in July. The oil supply from Kazakhstan to Germany via the Russian Friendship Pipeline was briefly interrupted. The US plans to increase tariffs on India for purchasing Russian oil. Angola will cut oil exports to 994,000 barrels per day in October. The Volgograd refinery of Russia's Lukoil was attacked and suspended operations [8][9][10]. Demand - Sinopec (Henan) Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. increased its registered capital from 10 million RMB to about 1.84 billion RMB, with an increase of 18334% [11]. Inventory - US API inventory data for the week ending August 15 showed changes in crude oil, refined oil, gasoline, and other inventories. US natural gas futures dropped to a nine - month low. Domestic crude oil futures prices fluctuated slightly, and the warehouse receipts of various futures remained unchanged [12][13]. Market Information - The US has held separate peace talks with some European countries and Ukraine about the Russia - Ukraine issue, but direct talks between Russia and Ukraine have not taken place, and the cease - fire agreement has not made actual progress. Oil prices are expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations [14]. 6. Industry Chain Data Charts - The content provides various data charts related to the oil industry, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent contracts, the spread between SC and WTI, US crude oil production, OPEC crude oil production, refinery operating rates, and inventory data [15][17][19].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Views - **Pure Benzene**: The supply side of pure benzene has been relatively strong recently. The supply of petroleum benzene has been stable, and the overall operating rate of hydrobenzene has increased significantly. The demand side shows structural differences, with an increase in the consumption of pure benzene in some products. However, the profit margins of downstream products are compressed, and the release of substantial incremental demand from new production capacity is slow. The inventory in East China ports has decreased slightly, and the supply and demand in the domestic market are both increasing in August - September. Although the supply - demand balance has improved marginally, high - level hidden inventory and weak terminal consumption are still concerns [3]. - **Styrene**: The styrene market remains oversupplied. New production capacity is being continuously released, and there are still large - scale plant commissioning plans in September - October. The demand improvement is limited due to insufficient terminal consumption. Although there are signs of marginal improvement in the supply - demand surplus in August - September, whether the market can maintain inventory reduction remains to be observed [4]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1. Daily Market Summary - **Fundamentals** - **Prices**: On August 19, the main contract of styrene closed down 0.06% at 7,226 yuan/ton, with a basis of 54 (+14 yuan/ton); the main contract of pure benzene closed down 0.06% at 6,182 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil closed at 63.4 (+0.6 dollars/barrel), and WTI crude oil closed at 66.6 (+0.8 dollars/barrel). The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 6,095 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Inventory**: Styrene's sample factory inventory was 20.9 million tons (-0.3 million tons), a 1.3% decrease; the inventory in Jiangsu ports was 14.9 million tons (-1.0 million tons), a 6.42% decrease. The port inventory of pure benzene was 14.6 million tons (-1.7 million tons), a 10.43% decrease [2]. - **Supply**: A new styrene plant in Shandong was put into operation, and the overall supply remained stable. The weekly production of styrene was 36.9 million tons (+1.0 million tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate was 78.2% (+0.5%) [2]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of EPS, ABS, and PS among downstream 3S products changed differently. The capacity utilization rate of EPS was 58.1% (+14.4%), ABS was 71.1% (+0%), and PS was 56.7% (+1.7%) [2]. 3.2. Industry News - China's shale cracking raw material supply is affected by trade and production capacity, pushing up the cost of naphtha. China is expected to increase naphtha imports to a record 1,600 - 1,700 million tons in 2025 [9]. - The global diesel shortage supports refinery profits, having a structural impact on the crude oil and chemical chains [9]. - India is accelerating petrochemical expansion to counter China's dominant position. Reliance Industries in India emphasizes the need to develop petrochemical production capacity [9]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring - **Prices**: The prices of styrene and pure benzene futures and spot, as well as the basis, are presented in the report. The prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and naphtha are also included [6]. - **Production and Inventory**: The production and inventory data of styrene and pure benzene from August 8 to August 15, 2025, are provided, showing changes in production volume and inventory levels [7]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of pure benzene and styrene downstream products from August 8 to August 15, 2025, are given, including styrene, caprolactam, phenol, aniline, EPS, ABS, and PS [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report In the short term, crude oil is likely to continue its weak and volatile pattern. Supply-side negative factors dominate, with stable Russian oil exports and the expectation of sanctions loosening alleviating the risk of supply disruptions, and limited growth in US shale oil failing to reverse the oversupply expectation. Although there is seasonal support on the demand side, the downward pressure on the global economy restricts the upside space. Overall, oil prices may fluctuate at low levels in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes**: On August 18, the SC crude oil main contract slightly declined to 486.5 yuan/barrel (down 0.33% from the 15th), while WTI and Brent prices remained flat at 62.29 and 66.13 US dollars/barrel respectively. The SC-Brent spread narrowed by 0.19 US dollars to 1.64 US dollars/barrel (a decline of 10.38%), and the SC-WTI spread also narrowed by 0.19 US dollars to 5.48 US dollars/barrel (a decline of 3.35%), indicating increased discount pressure of domestic SC prices relative to the external market. The SC inter - term spread (continuous - consecutive 3) dropped to 2.2 yuan/barrel (a decline of 18.52%), showing liquidity pressure on near - month contracts [2]. - **Supply - side**: The Indian Oil Corporation continued to purchase Russian crude oil (the proportion rose to 24%), and the discount on Russian oil narrowed to 1.5 US dollars/barrel, indicating the resilience of Russian oil exports. After the US - Russia meeting, the expectation of further sanctions on Russia decreased, and the channel for Russian oil to flow into Asia may become more stable [3]. - **Demand - side**: The US summer travel season supported gasoline demand, but the prospect of an oil market surplus suppressed market sentiment. Indian refineries maintained a high processing rate of Russian oil, indicating stable local demand, but weak global manufacturing and slow economic growth may limit the growth elasticity of demand [4]. - **Inventory - side**: The domestic medium - sulfur crude oil warehouse receipts remained at 4.767 million barrels, and the low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts decreased by 4,970 tons to 11,110 tons, indicating accelerated destocking of refined oil products, possibly driven by refinery restocking or exports [5]. 3.2 Industry Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: Futures prices of SC decreased by 0.33%, WTI increased by 0.47%, and Brent increased by 0.50%. Among spot prices, most showed a downward trend. Spreads such as SC - Brent, SC - WTI, and SC continuous - consecutive 3 all narrowed. Other assets like the US dollar index increased by 0.30%, while the S&P 500 and DAX index decreased slightly. US commercial crude oil inventory, Cushing inventory, US strategic reserve inventory, and API inventory all increased. The US refinery weekly operating rate decreased by 0.52%, while the US refinery crude oil processing volume increased by 0.33% [8]. - **Fuel Oil**: Futures prices of FU, LU, and NYMEX fuel oil all increased, while most spot prices showed a downward trend. Paper - cargo prices of high - sulfur 180 and high - sulfur 380 in Singapore decreased slightly. Some spreads such as the China high - low sulfur spread and LU - Singapore FOB (0.5%S) increased. Platts prices of 380CST and 180CST decreased [9]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Supply**: On August 18, the Ukrainian armed forces attacked the Nikolskoye oil pumping station in Russia, causing it to stop pumping oil to the "Friendship" oil pipeline. The Hungarian Oil Company MOL stated that technical restoration work was in progress, and crude oil supply would resume later [10][12]. - **Demand**: On August 18, an executive of the Indian Oil Corporation said that they would continue to purchase Russian oil based on economic conditions and processed 24% of Russian crude oil in the June quarter [13]. - **Inventory**: The medium - sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 4,767,000 barrels, the low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts decreased by 4,970 tons to 11,110 tons, and the fuel oil futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 80,710 tons [14]. - **Market Information**: On August 18, Yitai B - shares clarified that there were no plans for oil import and export as mentioned in some false information. An executive of the Indian Oil Corporation said that the discount on Russian oil was about 1.5 US dollars per barrel. After the US - Russia meeting, the expectation of strengthened sanctions on Russia was temporarily put on hold, and the oil market was expected to continue to fluctuate [14]. 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts The report provides various data charts related to the oil industry, including WTI, Brent prices and spreads, US crude oil production, OPEC crude oil production, oil rig numbers, refinery operating rates, crude oil processing volumes, inventories, and fuel oil prices and spreads [15][17][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The copper market may continue to oscillate at a high level in the short term. The core drivers are the continuous fermentation of supply - side disturbances and the support from the home appliance sector in the demand side. However, the macro - sentiment is cautious, and the risk of fluctuations caused by unexpected events should be vigilant [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis 3.1.1 Main Contracts and Basis - On August 15, the SHFE copper futures main contract closed at 79,080 yuan/ton, slightly down from August 12. The LME copper price also slightly declined to $9,760/ton during the same period. The domestic spot premium - discount structure was differentiated. The premium of premium copper dropped from 260 yuan/ton on August 12 to 210 yuan/ton on August 15, and the premium of flat - water copper shrank synchronously. But in North China, the spot premium - discount of electrolytic copper was boosted due to logistics restrictions near the Tianjin SCO Summit. The LME (0 - 3) discount widened to -$93.75/ton, indicating short - term supply pressure [1]. 3.1.2 Position and Trading Volume - The LME copper position increased to 271,444 lots on August 15, an increase of 2,867 lots compared to August 12. The domestic spot trading sentiment was relatively stable, and the procurement and sales sentiment indices in Shanghai were both around 3.1, with strong wait - and - see sentiment from both supply and demand sides [2]. 3.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes 3.2.1 Supply Side - Overseas copper mine disturbances intensified. The Las Bambas copper mine in Peru may face operational interruptions due to the presidential election. Although MMG maintained its annual production forecast of 360,000 - 400,000 tons, transportation disruptions and inventory clearance indicated short - term supply constraints. Zambia's Q2 copper production decreased by about 4% quarter - on - quarter, mainly due to production problems of four enterprises. The annual production target of 1 million tons was under pressure. In China, policy adjustments in the recycled copper industry affected the raw material procurement of bronze strip enterprises, potentially suppressing recycled copper supply. However, Minmetals Resources' copper sales in the first half of the year increased by 51% year - on - year, partially offsetting supply - side disturbances [3]. 3.2.2 Demand Side - Downstream demand showed differentiation. The market quotation of brass rods remained flat. The production of recycled copper rod factories was suppressed by raw material shortages and policy uncertainties, and the overall production enthusiasm was average. However, the refrigeration and air - conditioning valve market continued to grow, with sales increasing by 5.7% year - on - year in the first half of the year. Policy stimulus for home appliances in the second half of the year may further boost copper consumption. Overall, the demand in the power and home appliance sectors remained stable, but the demand in the construction and industrial sectors was still weak [4]. 3.2.3 Inventory Side - On August 15, the LME inventory slightly increased to 24,560 tons, the SHFE inventory slightly decreased to 155,800 tons, and the COMEX inventory rose to 267,195 short tons. The global visible inventory generally fluctuated at a low level. The concentrated arrival of imported sources in Shanghai increased the inventory, but with the active shipment of holders, the spot premium remained firm, and inventory accumulation did not form obvious pressure [5]. 3.3 Industry Chain Price Monitoring - From August 12 to August 18, the prices of SMM:1 copper, SHFE, and LME showed slight fluctuations. The premiums of premium copper, flat - water copper, and wet - process copper changed, with the wet - process copper having a large change rate of 566.67%. The LME (0 - 3) discount increased by - 3.20%. In terms of inventory, the LME inventory increased by 3.82%, the SHFE inventory decreased by - 0.13%, and the COMEX inventory increased by 0.00% [8]. 3.4 Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - **MMG's Production**: MMG's annual production forecast for the Las Bambas copper mine in Peru remains unchanged at 360,000 - 400,000 tons, but the presidential election may cause operational interruptions [9]. - **Qingyuan Jiangtong's PV Project**: On August 15, Jiangxi Copper (Qingyuan) Co., Ltd.'s 2540.65 - kilowatt distributed photovoltaic power generation project was officially connected to the grid, with an annual power generation of 2.5 million kilowatt - hours, saving 1,000 tons of standard coal and reducing 2,492 tons of carbon dioxide emissions annually [10]. - **SMM Copper News**: Due to the approaching Tianjin SCO Summit, logistics restrictions in North China boosted the spot premium - discount of electrolytic copper [10]. - **Zambia's Copper Production**: Zambia's Q2 copper production decreased by about 4% quarter - on - quarter, and the annual production target of 1 million tons is at risk [11]. - **Recycled Copper Policy**: Policy adjustments in the recycled copper industry may affect the raw material procurement of bronze strip enterprises [12].