1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market may maintain high - level volatility in the short term. Supply - side factors such as the resumption of mine shipments and high domestic smelting capacity release pose pressure, but export diversion and the commissioning of bonded mixed ore support domestic spot premiums. On the demand side, the continuous decline in the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises restricts the upside space, and the weakening of the US dollar provides short - term bullish support [6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Copper Futures Market Data Changes - On June 30, the main contract of SHFE copper closed at 79,800 yuan/ton, a slight drop of 0.08% from the previous day. The LME copper price slightly declined from $9,896/ton to $9,879/ton, maintaining a high - level volatility pattern. The premiums of premium copper, flat - water copper, and wet - process copper in the spot market all increased, and the basis strengthened overall [1]. - SHFE copper inventory decreased by 650 tons to 90,625 tons, with two consecutive weeks of destocking. LME copper inventory continued to increase by 505 tons to 25,851 tons. The holding volume of the LME 0 - 3 copper contract increased by 4,590 lots to 292,214 lots [2]. 3.1.2 Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply side: Overseas mine disturbances eased, and the domestic smelting sector showed differentiation. The spot supply in Jiangsu was tight due to export plans, while the warehouse receipts in Shanghai and Guangdong increased, and the smelting plant operating rate remained high [3]. - Demand side: The operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises continued to decline. During the week from June 20th to 26th, it decreased by 1.81 percentage points to 74.01%, and some enterprises planned further production cuts and inventory reduction at the beginning of July. Downstream buyers showed obvious high - price aversion, with weak spot trading in North China [4]. - Inventory side: The pressure of overseas visible inventory increased, with the LME inventory increasing by more than 2,000 tons in two consecutive weeks to 25,851 tons, and the COMEX inventory also increasing to 209,281 short tons. The destocking pace of domestic SHFE inventory slowed down, and there was a risk of spot market liquidity after export diversion [5]. 3.2 Industry Chain Price Monitoring - The price of SMM 1 copper decreased by 210 yuan/ton to 80,090 yuan/ton on June 30, a decrease of 0.26%. The premiums of premium copper, flat - water copper, and wet - process copper all increased, with increases of 11.11%, 35.29%, and 83.33% respectively. The LME (0 - 3) price decreased by 59 dollars/ton to 182 dollars/ton, a decrease of 24.51%. The SHFE price decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 79,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.08%. The LME price decreased by 1 dollar/ton to 9,878 dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.01% [8]. - LME inventory increased by 505 tons to 25,851 tons, an increase of 1.99%. SHFE inventory decreased by 650 tons to 90,625 tons, a decrease of 0.71%. COMEX inventory increased by 1,928 short tons to 211,209 short tons, an increase of 0.92% [8]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - On June 30, SHFE copper futures warehouse receipts increased by 505 tons, with 399 tons in Shanghai and 401 tons in Guangdong, and a decrease of 295 tons in Jiangsu. The continuous decrease of warehouse receipts in Jiangsu was due to the export plans of local smelters [9]. - On June 30, First Quantum Minerals' Cobre Panama copper mine started to transport copper ore, which may increase supply [9]. - From June 20th to 26th, the weekly operating rate of domestic main refined copper rod enterprises decreased to 74.01%, a decrease of 1.81 percentage points, lower than the expected value by 2.22 percentage points, and an increase of 4.99 percentage points year - on - year. It is expected that the operating rate will further decline to 73.48% in the week from June 27th to July 3rd [9]. - On June 25th, the copper concentrate mixing project of Zhongtong (Tangshan) Mineral Products Co., Ltd. was successfully put into operation, marking the full - scale smooth operation of the bonded mixed ore business process [10]. 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts of China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, US interest rate and LME copper price correlation, dollar index and LME copper price correlation, TC processing fees, CFTC copper positions, LME copper net long positions analysis, SHFE copper warehouse receipts, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [11][12][13]

特朗普称伊以或将停火，地缘溢价大幅降低 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 截至2025年6月23日，原油市场呈现结构性分化特征。SC原油期货价格从 566.6元/桶小幅回升至574.5元/桶，涨幅1.39%，但夜盘出现大幅回调收跌 5.65%至538元/桶；而WTI和Brent则分别大跌9.2%和9.82%至67.23美元/桶 和69.73美元/桶。跨市场价差显著变动，SC-Brent价差走强559.35%至 10.22美元/桶，SC-WTI价差扩大163.35%至12.72美元/桶，显示亚洲基准油 种相对走强，而Brent-WTI价差则收窄23.78%至2.5美元/桶，反映欧美市场 同步承压。 供应端，美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体平台"真实社交"上发文表示，以 色列和伊朗已同意全面停火。停火协议涉及两个12小时的停火期，伊朗将 启动首个12小时停火，以色列将随后进行第二个12小时停火，24小时后， 战争将正式宣布结束。特朗普的发文带来了原油的第一轮下挫，隔夜油价 跌超5%。 需求侧呈现区域分化： ...

原油库存骤降叠加区域价差走阔，短线维持高位博弈 一、日度市场总结 从数据层面看，6月18日SC原油期货价格单日大涨5.3%至552.7元/桶，盘中 振幅近9.2%（最低495.7至最高552.7元），创近期新高。WTI与Brent油价 则维持73.74美元/桶和77.19美元/桶的横向盘整。跨市场价差显著变动， SC-Brent价差由贴水4.12美元反弹至贴水0.29美元，SC-WTI价差由贴水 0.67美元转为升水3.16美元，显示中国市场溢价快速扩大，可能与中东地 缘风险引发的海运溢价及人民币汇率波动有关。库存方面，美国商业原油 库存单周骤降1147万桶（预期降179万桶），库欣库存降幅扩大至99.5万 桶，创4月以来最大单周去库，战略储备同步增加23万桶。但炼厂加工需求 显露疲态，当周原油进口锐减174.7万桶/日，设备利用率降至93.2%（预期 94.2%），汽油产量环比骤降43%至38.6万桶/日，反映终端消费乏力。 供需格局呈现区域性分化特征。供给端扰动因素加剧，卡塔尔将Al- Shaheen原油溢价推升至2.48美元/桶的年度高位，黑海CPC混合油7月出口 量维持165万桶/日不变，印证OPEC ...

通惠期货•研发产品系列 苯乙烯日报 2025 年 6 月 12 日 星期四 原油大涨带动苯乙烯上行，但纯苯仍相对偏弱 一、 日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 能源化工 （1）基本面 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 价格：6 月 11 日苯乙烯主力合约收涨 0.37%，报 7349 元/吨，基差 411 元/吨（+67 元/吨）； 成本：6 月 11 日布油主力合约收盘 65.0 美元/桶（-0.3 美元/桶），WTI 原油主力合约收盘 66.9 美元/桶（-0.1 美元/桶），华东纯苯现货报价 6040 元/吨（-25 元/吨）。 库存：苯乙烯样本工厂库存 19.1 万吨（+2.0 万吨），环比上升 12.2%， 江苏港口库存 8.9 万吨（+1.4 万吨），环比上升 19.4%，苯乙烯开始累库。 供应：苯乙烯检修装置将于 6 月中下旬逐渐回归，届时供应有增量预 期。目前，苯乙烯周产量环比回升 0.4%至 33.1 万吨（+0.1 万吨），工厂产能 利用率 72.3%（+0. ...

地缘溢价对冲需求疲态，油价冲击阶段性高位 一、日度市场总结 国际原油期货价格呈现区域分化走势。6月11日SC原油结算价小幅回落 0.35%至478.1元/桶，日内呈现冲高回落态势；WTI与Brent价格则维持在 64.74和66.6美元/桶的横盘格局。值得关注的是跨区价差出现明显调整， SC-Brent价差由前一日的+0.16美元急转至-0.07美元，SC-WTI价差也收窄 0.23美元至1.79美元，显示出亚洲市场供应相对宽松的短期格局。但近远 月价差走强，SC连续-连三价差扩大至9.8元/桶的月内高点，反映现货端存 在支撑。 地缘政治风险溢价再度注入市场，成为当前主导供给预期的核心变量。中 东局势方面，美国撤离驻中东人员导致伊核协议谈判不确定性加剧，伊朗 原油重返市场的时间表再次延后，据市场测算潜在供应增量约130万桶/日 的风险敞口仍然存在。同时乌克兰对俄罗斯石油设置30美元价格上限的呼 吁虽缺乏操作路径，但侧面印证当前60-70美元区间的价格水平对俄罗斯财 政压力有限，OPEC+挺价意愿难见松动。库存数据指向分化特征，欧洲地区 通过持续削减俄油进口重构供应链，德国官方数据显示对俄贸易量锐减95% 背景 ...

乙二醇库存小幅累积抑制反弹，或延续震荡偏弱走势 一、日度市场总结 乙二醇主力期货价格于2025-06-09报4253元/吨，较前值4240元/吨上涨13 元（涨幅0.31%），延续了前期的震荡偏强走势；华东现货价格则从4385 元/吨降至4365元/吨，下跌20元（跌幅0.46%）。同期价差结构显示，1-5 价差从-9元/吨升至-1元/吨（涨幅88.89%），5-9价差从-12元/吨升至-2 元/吨（涨幅83.33%），而9-1价差从21元/吨降至3元/吨（跌幅85.71%）， 整体价差格局指向远期合约走强。利润端，油制利润维持在亏损状态（当 前-92.01美元/吨），煤制利润稳定在-218元/吨（无变化），天然气制路 径（包括乙烯制和甲醇制）亏损持续加深（乙烯制利润-564.92元/吨，甲 醇制利润-1124.02元/吨），显示原材料成本压力未见缓解。 供给端：乙二醇总体开工率持平在54.36%，其中油制开工率56.44%、煤制 开工率50.5%均无变动，表明国内生产节奏平稳，无新增产能扰动。 需求端：聚酯工厂负荷持稳于89.42%，江浙织机负荷锁定63.43%。 库存端：华东主港库存从57.67万吨增至5 ...

手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 1. PTA&PX 需求疲软主导聚酯市场情绪，原油价格上涨难提振 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 2. 聚酯 06月06日，短纤主力合约收6394.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨0.66%。华东 市场现货价为6500.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨20.0元/吨，基差为106.0 元/吨。 轻纺城成交量连续下滑，MA15值从831.33万米（5月30日）降至808.93万米 （6月6日），下降约2.7%，表明下游纺织需求疲软。库存端：截至6月5 日，涤纶短纤库存8.4天、涤纶长丝FDY库存21.6天、DTY库存28.4天、POY 库存16.5天。短期产业链偏弱运行，价格承压或持续下行，需求端收缩主 导市场。 1/10 二、产业链价格监测 06月09日，PX 主力合约收0.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨0.24%，基差为0.0 元/吨。PTA 主力合约收4652.0元/吨，与前一交易日持平，基差为0.0元/ 吨。 成本端，06月09日，WTI收64.7 ...

OPEC实际供给增量不及预期，油价呈现偏强态势 一、日度市场总结 原油期货日度市场总结（2025年06月09日） 数据变化情况分析 今日原油市场数据显示，国内SC原油期货价格表现强 势，较前一交易日上涨8.2元/桶至474.3元/桶，涨幅1.76%，小幅走高，走 势呈温和上扬趋势（盘中从462.5元逐步攀升至474.3元）。相比之下，国 际基准原油价格维持稳定：WTI期货价格持平于64.77美元/桶，连续五日区 间震荡（波动区间63.34-64.77美元/桶）；Brent期货价格同样无变化，报 66.65 美 元 / 桶 （ 区 间 65.61-66.65 美 元 ） 。 价 差 方 面 ， SC-Brent 价 差 从-1.78美元/桶收窄至-0.63美元/桶，价差走强64.61%；SC-WTI价差从0.1 美元/桶扩大至1.25美元/桶，大幅走强1150%；而Brent-WTI价差持平于 1.88美元/桶，维持稳定。此外，SC连续-连3价差小幅上扬，从7.0元/桶升 至8.8元/桶，显示国内期货市场短期看涨情绪。 供需及库存分析（基于06月09日资讯） 供给端受OPEC+产量和政策主导， 资讯显示OPEC ...

库存：苯乙烯样本工厂库存 19.1 万吨（+2.0 万吨），环比上升 12.2%， 江苏港口库存 8.9 万吨（+1.4 万吨），环比上升 19.4%，苯乙烯开始累库。 能源化工 通惠期货•研发产品系列 苯乙烯日报 2025 年 6 月 10 日 星期二 纯苯供增需减，苯乙烯跟随原油定价 一、 日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 （1）基本面 价格：6 月 9 日苯乙烯主力合约收涨 1.56%，报 7211 元/吨，基差 294 元 /吨（-63 元/吨）； 成本：6 月 9 日布油主力合约收盘 64.6 美元/桶（+1.2 美元/桶），WTI 原油主力合约收盘 66.5 美元/桶（+1.2 美元/桶），华东纯苯现货报价 5915 元/吨（+75 元/吨）。 供应：苯乙烯检修装置将于 6 月中下旬逐渐回归，届时供应有增量预 期。目前，苯乙烯周产量环比回升 0.4%至 33.1 万吨（+0.1 万吨），工厂产能 利用率 72.3%（+0.3%）。 需求：下游 3S 开工率变化不一，其中 EPS 产能利用率 46.4%（- 12.3%），ABS 产能利用率 64.0%（+1.70%），PS 产能利用率 59.2%（-2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The copper market is in a situation of supply - demand imbalance. The supply side is supported by smelter shutdowns and copper concentrate shortages, while the demand side is significantly suppressed by the off - season. In the context of the game between long and short positions, price increases are restricted by weak demand, and price decreases are limited by cost support. Attention should be paid to the impact of US non - farm data on the US dollar, US tariff policies, and the acceptance of current prices by domestic buyers [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - On June 6, 2025, the SHFE main contract closed at 78,700 yuan/ton, up 0.69% from the previous day, showing a slight upward trend. The LME 3 - month copper price was reported at 9,707.5 US dollars/ton, continuing the upward trend. The spot premium and discount showed obvious differentiation, and the LME (0 - 3) basis strengthened to 93.15 US dollars/ton, indicating tight near - end supply [2]. - The LME open interest decreased by 1,146 lots to 283,000 lots, with a slight contraction in market trading activity. The SHFE copper inter - month spread BACK structure remained at around 100 yuan/ton, and the import loss widened to 1,600 yuan/ton, stimulating smelters to accelerate exports and increasing short - term liquidity pressure [2]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Situation - The shortage of copper concentrate has intensified, and domestic smelting capacity is being restored. The cathode copper output of Western Copper increased by 18% year - on - year to 67,400 tons, and the acceptance of the bonded mixed ore project at Tangshan Port may relieve long - term raw material pressure [3]. - The entire copper industry chain has entered the traditional off - season, with generally declining operating rates. The copper rod operating rate in June is expected to drop to 47.11%, and the enameled wire operating rate is expected to drop by 4.5 percentage points to 67.76%. The operating rates of wire and cable and copper strip also weakened. High copper prices have curbed downstream procurement, with demand mainly from rigid needs and long - term contracts. The demand for lithium - ion copper foil is relatively strong [3]. - LME inventory increased by 591 tons to 32,278 tons, COMEX inventory increased to 186,883 short tons, and overseas visible inventory accumulated marginally. SHFE inventory decreased by 5,600 tons to 132,400 tons, with continued but slowed destocking in China. The SMM national social inventory increased by 10,000 tons to 149,000 tons compared with last week, showing initial signs of inventory accumulation in the off - season [3]. 3.3 Industry Chain Price Monitoring - The price of SMM 1 copper (premium copper) was 78,970 yuan/ton on June 6, 2025, up 0.65% from the previous day, and the premium decreased by 10% to 135 yuan/ton. The premium of flat - water copper increased by 20% to 30 yuan/ton, and the discount of wet - process copper remained at - 30 yuan/ton [6]. - The LME (0 - 3) basis was 70 US dollars/ton, down 25.02% from the previous day. The SHFE copper price was 78,700 yuan/ton, up 0.69% from the previous day, and the LME copper price was 9,671 US dollars/ton, down 0.38% from the previous day [6]. - LME inventory increased by 1.87% to 32,278 tons, SHFE inventory decreased by 4.06% to 132,400 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 0.53% to 187,877 short tons [6]. 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes data charts such as China's PMI, US employment situation, the correlation between US interest rates and LME copper prices, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper prices, TC processing fees, CFTC copper open interest, LME copper net long open interest analysis, SHFE copper warehouse receipts, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [7][9][12].