Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term lithium carbonate market may continue the pattern of being volatile and slightly strong. In the absence of additional marginal factors, the main LC2511 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to remain in the current range in the next 1 - 2 weeks. If downstream purchases are weak, it may retest the previous low [3] - The recent rebound of futures prices may be affected by the weakening of the basis and the stabilization of spot prices, but the changes in trading volume and open interest show market divergence. The supply side may support prices, and the demand side may bring short - term support, but the cautious procurement and sufficient inventory of downstream enterprises may limit the upside space. The lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly strong trend [32][33] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Futures Market Data**: On September 16, the price of the main lithium carbonate contract rose slightly to 73,180 yuan/ton, a 0.69% increase from the previous day. The basis widened to - 1,080 yuan/ton, indicating that the futures price was stronger relative to the spot. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 9,009 lots to 300,437 lots, a decrease of 2.91%, while the trading volume expanded by 3.62% to 500,267 lots [1][5][30] - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: On the supply side, the proportion of lithium carbonate produced from spodumene exceeded 60%, becoming the main support for supply, while the proportion of lithium mica decreased to 15%. The long - term supply increase expectation was enhanced, but short - term factors supported the spot. On the demand side, the demand for new energy vehicles was differentiated. The prices of cathode materials and most cell prices increased. Lithium carbonate inventory decreased for four consecutive weeks to 138,512 tons, but the warehouse receipts remained high [2][31] - **Market Summary**: The short - term lithium carbonate market may continue the volatile and slightly strong pattern. The supply side suppresses the upside space, while the demand side has a contradictory cost - pressure transmission, and market wait - and - see sentiment remains [3] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - The price of the main lithium carbonate contract increased by 0.69% to 73,180 yuan/ton, the basis decreased by 86.21% to - 1,080 yuan/ton, the open interest of the main contract decreased by 2.91% to 300,437 lots, and the trading volume increased by 3.62% to 500,267 lots. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 72,100 yuan/ton, and the prices of some related products such as lithium hexafluorophosphate, power - type ternary materials, and power - type lithium iron phosphate increased slightly [5] 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market**: On September 16, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price rose. The futures price fluctuated, and the downstream was cautious. In September, the market showed a situation of simultaneous growth in supply and demand, with demand growing faster, and a temporary supply shortage was expected [6] - **Downstream Consumption**: From September 1 - 7, the retail volume of the new - energy passenger vehicle market decreased by 3% year - on - year, and the wholesale volume increased by 5% year - on - year [7] - **Industry News**: The lithium ore shutdown in Yichun, Jiangxi, may affect the supply, and the industry reshuffle from the supply side of lithium carbonate is coming [9] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - There are data charts on the main lithium carbonate futures and basis, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices, lithium concentrate prices, etc., which visually show the data changes in the industrial chain [10][13][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The short - term copper market may maintain high - level volatility with large intraday fluctuations. Supply - side factors like smelting maintenance and recycled copper raw material interference provide support, but weak demand and LME inventory accumulation suppress the upside. With the Fed interest rate decision to be announced, the volatility is expected to increase on Thursday, and risk prevention for SHFE copper is necessary [1][3] - In the next one or two weeks, copper prices may fluctuate at a high level, mainly driven by supply - side maintenance, weak demand, and cautious macro sentiment. The price range is likely between 80,500 - 81,500 yuan/ton [32] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary 1.1 Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **主力合约与基差**: On September 16, the SHFE copper main contract price was 80,990 yuan/ton, a 0.2% rebound from the previous day, while the LME copper price dropped 0.71% to $10,117/ton. In terms of premium and discount, the domestic premium for premium copper widened to 125 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 discount narrowed to - $59.26/ton [1] - **持仓与成交**: The LME copper open interest continued to expand with a significant inventory build - up, increasing overseas short - selling pressure. The SHFE inventory in China continued to decline, and the warrants did not flow out in large quantities, so the domestic market support was relatively stronger than the overseas market [1] 1.2 Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **供给端**: The tight supply of recycled copper has eased, but the delayed delivery of low - price raw materials has hindered the production of recycled copper rod enterprises. Planned maintenance at North China smelters may exacerbate short - term regional supply tightness. Indonesia's plan to increase Freeport's state - owned equity may disrupt long - term copper mine supply expectations, but the short - term impact is limited [2] - **需求端**: High copper prices have continuously suppressed downstream procurement. The raw material inventory of refined copper rod enterprises decreased by 2.54% week - on - week, and the finished product inventory decreased by 3.63%. The discount of recycled copper rods to the futures price widened to 640 yuan/ton, and downstream acceptance of high - price goods was low, with orders remaining at the minimum requirement [2] - **库存端**: The LME inventory increased continuously, making overseas hidden inventories visible, while the SHFE inventory in China continued to decline, and the structural contradiction still existed [2] 1.3 Market Summary - The short - term copper market may maintain high - level volatility with large intraday fluctuations. Supply - side factors support the market, but weak demand and LME inventory accumulation suppress the upside. After the Fed interest rate decision is announced at the night - session close, the volatility on Thursday is expected to increase, and risk prevention for SHFE copper is necessary [3] 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - From September 10 to September 16, the prices of SHFE copper, spot premium copper, and wet - process copper increased, while the LME copper price decreased. The LME and COMEX inventories increased, and the SHFE inventory decreased [5] 3. Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, US interest rates and LME copper price correlation, US dollar index and LME copper price correlation, TC processing fees, CFTC copper open interest, LME copper net long positions, SHFE copper warrants, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [6][8][11] 4. Appendix: Large - Model Inference Process - After comprehensively analyzing the copper futures market data and information, it is expected that copper prices will fluctuate at a high level in the next one or two weeks, mainly driven by supply - side maintenance, weak demand, and cautious macro sentiment. The price range may be between 80,500 - 81,500 yuan/ton [30][32]

Report Title - Energy Chemicals Pure Benzene & Styrene Daily Report [1] Report Date - September 17, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report Core Viewpoints - Pure benzene market remains weak due to increased supply from restarted and new - added plants, weak demand from downstream industries, and limited cost support from crude oil. Short - term market is likely to stay in weak and volatile consolidation [2] - Styrene has shown a temporary stabilization due to sudden production cuts. However, demand improvement is limited, and if there is no continuous maintenance or significant policy support, the medium - term market will fluctuate with crude oil prices [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamentals - **Prices**: On September 16, the styrene main contract rose 1.00% to 7158 yuan/ton with a basis of 37 (+9 yuan/ton); the pure benzene main contract rose 0.68% to 6073 yuan/ton [2] - **Costs**: On September 16, Brent crude closed at 63.3 dollars/barrel (+0.6 dollars/barrel), WTI crude at 67.4 dollars/barrel (+0.5 dollars/barrel), and East China pure benzene spot price was 5970 yuan/ton (+25 yuan/ton) [2] - **Inventory**: Styrene inventory was 15.9 tons (-1.8 tons), a 9.9% de - stocking; pure benzene port inventory was 13.4 tons (-1.0 tons), a 6.9% de - stocking [2] - **Supply**: Styrene production and capacity utilization decreased as some plants were under maintenance. Weekly production was 35.4 tons (-2.2 tons), and capacity utilization was 75.0% (-4.8%) [2] - **Demand**: Downstream 3S industries had different capacity utilization changes. EPS was 61.0% (-8.5%), ABS was 70.0% (+1.0%), and PS was 61.9% (+0.9%) [2] (2) Views - **Pure Benzene**: Supply - side production increased due to restarted and new - added plants, while demand was weak as downstream industries'开工 rates declined. With limited crude - oil cost support, the market is likely to stay weak in the short term [2] - **Styrene**: Temporary supply cuts led to a price rebound, but demand improvement was limited. If maintenance doesn't continue or there are no policy incentives, the medium - term market will fluctuate with crude oil [3] 2. Industry Chain Data Monitoring (1) Styrene & Pure Benzene Prices - Styrene futures and spot prices, basis, and pure benzene futures and spot prices all had certain increases on September 16 compared to September 15. Upstream crude oil prices also rose slightly [5] (2) Styrene & Pure Benzene Production and Inventory - From September 5 to September 12, styrene production decreased by 5.97% to 35.4 tons, and pure benzene production increased slightly by 0.49% to 45.6 tons. Styrene port inventory in Jiangsu decreased by 10.18%, while factory inventory increased by 2.52%. Pure benzene port inventory decreased by 3.36% [6] (3) Capacity Utilization - From September 5 to September 12, the capacity utilization of pure benzene downstream industries (styrene, caprolactam, phenol, aniline) generally declined, while that of styrene downstream industries (EPS, ABS, PS) had mixed changes [7] 3. Industry News - The US imposed high tariffs on Asian chemical products, leading to adjustments in the global petrochemical industry structure. China's refining and chemical industry faced intensified losses in the first half of 2025, and the country's pure benzene production capacity has formed a pattern centered on East China [8] 4. Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on pure benzene price, styrene price, styrene - pure benzene price difference, styrene and pure benzene inventory, and the capacity utilization of related industries [9][14][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report - Short - term copper market may experience high - level oscillations. Supply - side disturbances and overseas inventory accumulation create a long - short game, while the resilience of domestic new energy demand supports the spot premium. Macro factors such as the fluctuation of the US dollar index and weak global manufacturing data may limit the upside space. The market pricing highly depends on the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, and market volatility may intensify after the Thursday's resolution [3]. - In the next one to two weeks, copper prices may remain in a high - level oscillation, with the price range likely between 80,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton (SHFE) and 9,900 - 10,200 US dollars/ton (LME) [33]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary Copper Futures Market Data Changes - On September 15, the main contract of Shanghai copper closed at 81,000 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium of SHFE copper showed that the premium of flat - water copper was 65 yuan/ton, and the LME (0 - 3) discount widened to - 73.42 US dollars/ton [1]. - The open interest of the SHFE copper 2509 contract continued to shrink, with a daily reduction of 3,855 lots to 4,090 lots; the open interest of LME copper increased slightly by 2,464 lots to 291,554 lots [1]. Changes in Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory - Supply side: Small and medium - sized smelters in the Democratic Republic of Congo reduced production due to tight hydropower supply, and Zambia restricted sulfuric acid exports, which may intensify the short - term supply shortage of wet - process copper. Zijin Copper's 200,000 - ton cathode copper expansion project supports medium - term production capacity but cannot alleviate the short - term shortage [2]. - Demand side: The relatively strong domestic spot premium indicates that there is still domestic restocking demand, but weak global manufacturing drags down overseas consumption [2]. - Inventory side: LME inventory soared to 25,560 tons on September 12, reaching a recent high, indicating potential overseas surplus pressure; SHFE inventory slightly decreased to 153,950 tons [2]. Market Summary - The short - term copper market may be in a high - level oscillation. The supply - side disturbances and overseas inventory accumulation form a long - short game, and the resilience of domestic new energy demand supports the spot premium. Macro factors may limit the upside space, and market volatility may intensify after the Thursday's resolution [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring | Data Index | 2025 - 09 - 15 | 2025 - 09 - 12 | 2025 - 09 - 09 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM:1 Copper (Premium Copper) | 81,070 | 81,080 | 80,270 | - 10 | - 0.01% | yuan/ton | | SMM:1 Copper (Flat - Water Copper) | 50 | 65 | 65 | - 15 | - 23.08% | yuan/ton | | SMM:1 Copper (Wet - Process Copper) | - 70 | - 35 | - 40 | - 35 | - 100.00% | yuan/ton | | LME (0 - 3) | - 62 | - 73 | - 62 | 11 | 15.65% | US dollars/ton | | SHFE Price | 80,830 | 80,800 | 80,090 | 30 | 0.04% | yuan/ton | | LME Price | 10,189 | 10,065 | 10,057 | 125 | 1.24% | US dollars/ton | | LME Inventory | 30,643 | 25,560 | 20,028 | 5,083 | 19.89% | tons | | SHFE Inventory | 152,625 | 153,950 | 154,175 | - 1,325 | - 0.86% | tons | | COMEX Inventory | 311,847 | 310,487 | 309,834 | 1,360 | 0.44% | short tons | [5] 3. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts such as China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper price, the correlation between US interest rates and LME copper price, TC processing fees, CFTC copper open interest, LME copper net long open interest analysis, SHFE copper warrant volume, LME copper inventory change, COMEX copper inventory change, and SMM social inventory [6][7][9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Amid geopolitical factors, oil prices are expected to oscillate within a high - end range. Supply - side contradictions are prominent, with geopolitical risk premiums offsetting OPEC+ production increases. On the demand side, seasonal weakness coexists with Asian resilience, resulting in insufficient one - way driving forces. Before the Fed meeting, market caution will suppress risk appetite. Short - term oil prices may continue to oscillate at the upper end of the range, with risks of impulse - type increases due to geopolitical conflicts and corrections under macro - negative pressure [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes - On September 15, 2025, crude oil futures prices showed differentiation. The SC main contract closed at 488.1 yuan/barrel, while WTI and Brent maintained narrow - range fluctuations. The SC - Brent spread dropped from $2.36/barrel on September 12 to - $0.15/barrel, indicating a significant narrowing of the domestic crude oil premium over the external market, even turning into a discount. The Brent - WTI spread strengthened to $4.77/barrel, a recent high, reflecting the support of geopolitical risks on European oil prices. The SC - WTI spread narrowed to $4.62/barrel, suggesting a compression of inter - regional arbitrage space [2]. 3.1.2 Supply, Demand, and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain - **Supply**: OPEC+ continues to increase production, but its complex policies and geopolitical situations (especially supply concerns caused by sanctions on Russia) have two - way disturbances on the crude oil supply side. India's oil imports in August reached $13.2 billion, showing the resilience of Asian demand. Its imports may partially replace sanctioned Russian oil, alleviating the supply gap pressure. The impact of marginal changes in US shale oil drilling activities and tightened financial conditions on production remains to be observed [3]. - **Demand**: US oil demand is undergoing a seasonal transformation, weakening after the summer travel peak. Refineries entering the maintenance season may suppress short - term demand. Shrinking refined oil profits and expectations of Fed rate hikes suppress speculative demand, and market concerns about economic slowdown persist. However, high - level imports from emerging markets such as India may partially offset the weakening demand pressure in Europe and the US [4]. - **Inventory**: Current inventory data for Cushing and US commercial crude oil has not been updated, but the risk of an oil market surplus (accumulation of OECD country inventories) is gradually increasing. The US strategic petroleum reserve release plan may further increase market supply. Geopolitical risks leading to the reshaping of trade flows may cause inventory fluctuations in non - OECD countries [5]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring 3.2.1 Crude Oil - **Futures Prices**: SC rose by 2.69% to 488.1 yuan/barrel, WTI increased by 0.27% to $62.77/barrel, and Brent rose by 0.88% to $67.47/barrel. - **Spot Prices**: Most spot prices showed changes, with Oman rising by 1.71% to $70.95/barrel and Dubai rising by 2.13% to $71.12/barrel. - **Spreads**: The SC - Brent spread increased by 806.67% to $1.06/barrel, the SC - WTI spread increased by 39.47% to $5.76/barrel, and the Brent - WTI spread increased by 9.1% to $4.70/barrel. - **Other Assets**: The US dollar index decreased by 0.30% to 97.32, the S&P 500 increased by 0.47% to 6,615.28 points, and the DAX index increased by 0.21% to 23,748.86 points. - **Inventory and开工**: US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 0.94% to 42,464.60 million barrels, Cushing inventory decreased by 1.51% to 2,385.70 million barrels, and the US refinery weekly operating rate increased by 0.64% to 94.90% [8]. 3.2.2 Fuel Oil - **Futures Prices**: FU rose by 3.02% to 2,799 yuan/ton, LU increased by 3.31% to 3,375 yuan/ton, and NYMEX fuel oil increased by 1.65% to 232.90 cents/gallon. - **Spot and Paper Prices**: Some prices remained unchanged, while the Russian M100 CIF price increased by 2.03% to $452/ton. - **Spreads**: The Chinese high - low sulfur spread increased by 4.73% to 576 yuan/ton, and the LU - Singapore FOB (0.5%S) spread increased by 5.53% to - 1,845 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: Some inventory data showed decreases, such as Singapore's inventory decreasing by 3.18% to 2,652.80 million [9]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Supply**: On September 15, India's trade ministry reported that India's oil imports in August reached $13.2 billion and gold imports reached $514 million [10]. - **Market Information**: OPEC+ continues to increase production but with complex policies. Geopolitical situations have resurfaced. The crude oil price strengthened and consolidated last week with limited amplitude. This week, the market will continue to focus on geopolitical developments. Supply concerns caused by sanctions on Russia still support the oil market, but the seasonal transformation of US oil demand and the prospect of an oil market surplus will continue to exert pressure. With the Fed meeting approaching, the market is cautious, and crude oil prices are expected to remain in consolidation with continued volatility [12]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including those related to WTI, Brent, and SC contract prices and spreads, US crude oil production, refinery operating rates, and fuel oil prices and inventories, with data sources from WIND, EIA, iFinD, etc. [13][15][17]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The short - term lithium carbonate market may maintain low - level fluctuations. The supply side remains rigid under the dominance of the spodumene route, and the resumption of production expectations suppresses the medium - term bullish sentiment. The demand side is supported by pre - holiday stockpiling and rising cell costs, but the peak in retail penetration restricts the upward space. The inventory depletion rhythm may be the key variable. If the weekly inventory reduction continues until the end of September, it may drive the futures price to test the 74,000 yuan/ton resistance level, but the breakthrough momentum is limited [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Market Data Changes**: On September 15, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract slightly declined to 71,160 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 2.4%. The basis weakened to 1,140 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest decreased from 351,000 lots to 309,000 lots, a decrease of 12%, and the trading volume shrank from 592,000 lots to 411,000 lots [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: The domestic lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate remained stable at 66.41%. The resumption of production at CATL's Jianxiawo lithium mine has limited impact before November. The supply mainly depends on the spodumene route, and the proportion of the lepidolite route has dropped to 15%. The demand growth rate has slowed down marginally. The retail volume of new energy vehicles decreased by 3% year - on - year in the first two weeks of September, although the wholesale volume increased by 5%. The lithium carbonate social inventory decreased from 140,000 tons to 139,000 tons, a decrease of 1.1% [2]. - **Market Conclusion**: The short - term lithium carbonate market may maintain low - level fluctuations. The inventory depletion rhythm may be the key variable. If the weekly inventory reduction continues until the end of September, it may drive the futures price to test the 74,000 yuan/ton resistance level, but the breakthrough power is limited [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Price Changes**: The price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 2.14% from September 12 to September 15. The basis decreased by 150.88%. The open interest of the main contract increased by 0.01%, and the trading volume increased by 17.47%. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.28%. The prices of some downstream products such as ternary materials and some types of cells increased [5]. 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market**: On September 15, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased by 18 yuan/ton. The market trading weakened. The proportion of lithium carbonate produced from spodumene has exceeded 60%, while that from lepidolite has dropped to 15%. The market in September shows a situation of simultaneous growth in supply and demand, with demand growing faster, and there may be a temporary supply shortage [6]. - **Downstream Consumption**: From September 1 - 7, the national retail volume of new energy passenger vehicles decreased by 3% year - on - year, and the wholesale volume increased by 5% year - on - year [7]. - **Industry News**: The price of cobalt intermediates continued to rise. Due to the Congo (Kinshasa) policy, there may be a shortage of cobalt intermediate raw materials in China in the future. On September 10, there were reports of the resumption of production at CATL's Jianxiawo lithium mine, but the resumption time is uncertain [9][10].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Pure Benzene**: The pure benzene market is in a weak supply - demand pattern. Supply has increased due to the restart of some units and new production capacity. Demand is sluggish with weak downstream industry开工 rates. With pressure on crude oil and lack of market confidence, the short - term market may fluctuate and consolidate [2]. - **Styrene**: There has been an unexpected supply tightening recently due to unplanned shutdowns. The market has a short - term price rebound, but demand is still divided and overall inventory is high. Without further support, the medium - term trend will mainly fluctuate with crude oil [3]. 3. Summary by Section **I. Daily Market Summary** - **Fundamentals** - **Prices**: On September 15, the styrene main contract rose 0.95% to 7087 yuan/ton with a basis of 28 (-22 yuan/ton); the pure benzene main contract rose 0.73% to 6032 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil was 62.7 dollars/barrel (+0.3 dollars/barrel), and WTI crude oil was 67.0 dollars/barrel (+0.6 dollars/barrel). The spot price of East China pure benzene was 5945 yuan/ton (+50 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Inventory**: Styrene inventory was 15.9 tons (-1.8 tons), a 9.9% de - stocking; pure benzene port inventory was 13.4 tons (-1.0 tons), a 6.9% de - stocking [2]. - **Supply**: Styrene production and capacity utilization decreased. Weekly production was 35.4 tons (-2.2 tons), and the factory capacity utilization was 75.0% (-4.8%) [2]. - **Demand**: The downstream 3S industries had different capacity utilization rates. EPS was 61.0% (-8.5%), ABS was 70.0% (+1.0%), and PS was 61.9% (+0.9%) [2]. **II. Industry Chain Data Monitoring** - **Prices**: From September 11 - 12, styrene futures and spot prices decreased, while the basis increased. Pure benzene prices generally decreased, and upstream prices of Brent, WTI, and naphtha also decreased [5]. - **Production and Inventory**: From September 5 - 12, styrene production decreased by 5.97% to 35.4 tons, and pure benzene production increased slightly by 0.49% to 45.6 tons. Styrene port inventory in Jiangsu decreased, while factory inventory increased. Pure benzene port inventory decreased [6]. - **Capacity Utilization**: From September 5 - 12, the capacity utilization of pure benzene downstream industries (styrene, caprolactam, phenol, aniline) decreased, while that of styrene downstream industries (EPS, ABS, PS) generally increased [7]. **III. Industry News** - The US imposed high tariffs on Asian chemical products, leading to structural adjustments in the global petrochemical industry [8]. - In the first half of 2025, China's refining and chemical industry losses increased by about 8.3% year - on - year, with the refining and chemical sector losing over 9 billion yuan [8]. - China's pure benzene production capacity has formed a pattern with East China as the core, coordinated development in South and Northeast China [8]. **IV. Industry Chain Data Charts** - The report provides multiple charts on prices, production, inventory, and capacity utilization of pure benzene and styrene and their downstream products, with data sources from iFinD and Steel Union Data [9][21]

成本端疲软弱化利多预期，PX&PTA期现承压运行 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 需求端：尽管轻纺城单日成交环比明显放量，但当前聚酯环节仍处需求博 弈期。下游聚酯工厂负荷虽维持刚性，但坯布订单传导节奏偏慢导致涤丝 产销波动较大，旺季需求预期尚未被完全兑现。坯布库存消化进程与终端 消费增量能否匹配仍待验证，短期聚酯环节对PTA的采购支撑力度边际转 弱。 库存端：PTA工厂库存延续累库趋势，社会库存维持高位表明现货流动性压 力未减。加工费持续低位运行制约工厂减产意愿，而PX库存同步攀升导致 产业链上游积压压力向中游传导。在供需宽松格局下，库存矛盾仍将压制 现货贴水修复空间，被动累库节奏或延续至旺季订单落地阶段。 2. 聚酯 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 1. PTA&PX 09月12日，PX 主力合约收6712.0元/吨，较前一交易日收跌0.97%，基差 为-47.0元/吨。PTA 主力合约收4648.0元/吨，较前一交易日收跌0.85%， 基差为-78.0元/吨。 成本 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The demand recovery of ethylene glycol is facing challenges, and it is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend in the short term. Currently, ethylene glycol is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The cost side restricts the price from falling sharply, but there is no new cost support. The demand side lacks incremental boost, and the high inventory suppresses market sentiment. The short - term price may continue to oscillate at a low level, and if the demand fails to substantially improve, the lower support may be tested [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Day - to - Day Market Summary - **主力合约与基差**: On September 12, the price of the ethylene glycol main contract oscillated downward to 4,272 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/0.7% from the previous day. The East China spot price also fell to 4,380 yuan/ton (-25 yuan), but the basis widened by 30 yuan to 138 yuan/ton. The inter - delivery spread showed an intensified contango, with the 5 - 9 spread widening negatively to - 89 yuan/ton, indicating deepening concerns about future supply [2] - **持仓与成交**: The trading volume of the main contract remained around 134,000 lots, while the open interest increased by 8,245 lots to 317,000 lots, suggesting intensified long - short game [2] - **供给端**: The total ethylene glycol operating rate remained stable at 71.24%. The operating rates of oil - based and coal - based plants were flat at 74.6% and 66.74% respectively. The coal - based profit continued to be deeply in the red at 368 yuan/ton, with no further expansion of losses but lack of repair momentum [2] - **需求端**: The load of polyester factories was 89.42%, and that of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 63.43%, both remaining flat for more than two weeks. Due to the off - season pressure in the terminal textile industry, the downstream replenishment demand was weak and could not effectively drive the raw materials [3] - **库存端**: The inventory at the East China main port increased by 59,000 tons to 485,700 tons in a single week. The inventory in Zhangjiagang soared by 40.6% to 180,000 tons. Although the weekly arrival volume decreased by 39.7% to 101,700 tons, the port inventory accumulation reflected that the source digestion speed lagged far behind the arrival rhythm, highlighting the inventory pressure [3] - **震荡偏弱运行**: Ethylene glycol is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The coal - based loss restricts the price from falling sharply, but the fluctuations of crude oil and naphtha have not provided new cost support for oil - based profits. The polyester and loom loads are stable but lack incremental boost, and the high - level inventory suppresses market sentiment. The short - term price may continue to oscillate at a low level [3] Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **期货与现货价格**: The main contract price of MEG futures was 4,272 yuan/ton on September 12, down 30 yuan (-0.7%) from the previous day. The East China spot price was 4,380 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan (-0.57%) [4] - **价差情况**: The MEG basis widened by 30 yuan to 138 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 1 yuan to - 47 yuan/ton, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 31 yuan to - 89 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 30 yuan to 136 yuan/ton [4] - **利润情况**: The coal - based profit remained at - 368 yuan/ton, with no change [4] - **开工负荷**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate was 71.2%, and the coal - based and oil - based operating rates were 66.7% and 74.6% respectively, all remaining unchanged. The polyester factory load was 89.4%, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load was 63.4%, also unchanged [4] - **库存与到港量**: The East China main port inventory increased by 59,000 tons to 486,000 tons, and the Zhangjiagang inventory increased by 52,000 tons to 180,000 tons, a surge of 40.62%. The arrival volume decreased by 67,000 tons to 101,700 tons, a decrease of 39.72% [4] Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - On September 12, the East China US - dollar market followed the domestic market to weaken. In the morning, the negotiation price of October shipments was in the range of 512 - 515 US dollars/ton, and in the afternoon, that of near - month shipments was in the range of 514 - 517 US dollars/ton, with no reported transactions [5] - On September 12, the mainstream market price fell, but the ethylene glycol price in the South China market had reached a low level, and the quotations of holders remained stable. The market negotiation atmosphere was cold, with the current price around 4,460 yuan/ton for delivery [5] - On September 12, due to concerns about oversupply, the international crude oil price declined, the cost - side support weakened, and the spot basis was weak. The current negotiation price in East China was around 4,370 yuan/ton [5] - On September 12, the spot quotation in the Shaanxi ethylene glycol market was lowered, with the average market price around 3,970 yuan/ton for self - pick - up [5] Appendix: Big Model Inference Process - The decrease in the main contract price and the increase in the basis may indicate that the spot is more resistant to decline or the market has a weak future expectation [22] - The increase in open interest and the significant change in the 5 - 9 spread may reflect the bearish sentiment towards the far - month contract [22] - The stable supply - side operating rate and the unchanged demand - side load, combined with the inventory accumulation, suggest weak demand and difficult de - stocking [23] - Given the high inventory pressure, weak demand, and certain cost - side support, the ethylene glycol price may continue to be weak and may even decline further [23]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Pure benzene supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, with slow inventory reduction and weak short - term trends [2] - Styrene has limited supply reduction in the short term, demand increase is limited, and short - term trends are mainly fluctuating [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary Fundamentals - On September 12, the styrene main contract closed down 0.86% at 7,020 yuan/ton, with a basis of 50 (+6 yuan/ton); the pure benzene main contract closed down 0.86% at 5,988 yuan/ton [2] - On September 12, Brent crude oil closed at $62.4 per barrel (-$1.3 per barrel), WTI crude oil closed at $66.4 per barrel (-$1.1 per barrel), and the spot price of East China pure benzene was 5,895 yuan/ton (-40 yuan/ton) [2] - Styrene inventory was 17.7 tons (-2.0 tons), a 10.2% month - on - month inventory reduction; pure benzene port inventory was 14.4 tons (-0.5 tons), a 3.4% month - on - month inventory reduction [2] - Styrene production in September will have equipment maintenance, and supply is expected to decrease. Currently, the weekly production of styrene is 35.4 tons (-2.2 tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate is 75.0% (-4.8%) [2] - The capacity utilization rates of the three downstream products of styrene varied. EPS was 61.0% (-8.5%), ABS was 70.0% (+1.0%), and PS was 61.9% (+0.9%) [2] Views - Pure benzene: Supply is increasing and demand is decreasing, with slow inventory reduction, and short - term trends are weak and fluctuating [2] - Styrene: Supply reduction provides some support, but supply pressure remains, demand increase is limited, and short - term trends are mainly fluctuating [3] 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring Prices - On September 12, the styrene futures main contract decreased by 0.86% to 7,020 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 1.00% to 7,320 yuan/ton; the pure benzene futures main contract decreased by 0.86% to 5,988 yuan/ton, and the East China spot price decreased by 0.67% to 5,895 yuan/ton [5] - Brent crude oil decreased by 2.04% to $62.4 per barrel, and WTI crude oil decreased by 1.66% to $66.4 per barrel [5] Production and Inventory - From September 5 to September 12, China's styrene production decreased by 5.97% to 35.4 tons, and pure benzene production increased by 0.49% to 45.6 tons [6] - During the same period, styrene port inventory in Jiangsu decreased by 10.18% to 17.7 tons, and factory inventory increased by 2.52% to 22.0 tons; pure benzene port inventory nationwide decreased by 3.36% to 14.4 tons [6] Capacity Utilization Rates - From September 5 to September 12, the capacity utilization rate of styrene in pure benzene downstream decreased by 4.76% to 75.0%, and the capacity utilization rates of other downstream products also decreased to varying degrees [7] - Among the styrene downstream products, the capacity utilization rate of EPS increased by 8.19% to 61.0%, ABS increased by 1.00% to 70.0%, and PS increased by 0.90% to 61.9% [7] 3. Industry News - The US imposed high tariffs on some Asian chemical products, leading to adjustments in the global petrochemical industry structure [8] - In the first half of 2025, the overall losses of China's refining and chemical industry continued to intensify, with the total loss amount increasing by about 8.3% compared to the same period last year [8] - With the accelerated implementation of private refining and chemical integration projects, China's pure benzene production capacity has formed a pattern with East China as the core and coordinated development in South China and Northeast China [8] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The content provides charts of pure benzene price, styrene price, styrene - pure benzene price difference, etc., and the data sources are iFinD and Steel Union Data [9][11][21]