Crude Oil Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contracts and Basis**: On November 26, 2025, the price of the SC crude oil main contract slightly declined to 445.0 yuan per barrel, a decrease of 3.6 yuan or -0.8% compared to the previous day. The WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices remained stable at $58.11 per barrel and $61.9 per barrel respectively. In terms of spreads, the SC - Brent spread weakened to $0.95 per barrel, the SC - WTI spread weakened to $4.74 per barrel, the Brent - WTI spread remained stable, and the SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread significantly weakened to -7.3 yuan per barrel [2][63][73]. - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: The open interest and trading volume data did not show significant changes in the provided information, indicating relatively small market trading fluctuations [74]. Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: On November 27, the total number of US oil rigs decreased to 407, down from the previous value of 419, suggesting that future US crude oil supply may tighten. On November 26, the production of Iraq's West Qurna - 2 oilfield remained stable at 460,000 - 480,000 barrels per day. Nigeria's Dangote Group plans to expand its refining capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day, increasing long - term supply. Hungary and Serbia are cooperating to strengthen crude oil supply [3][64][75]. - **Demand Side**: On November 26, EIA data showed that for the week ending November 21 in the US, gasoline production increased to 286,000 barrels per day, refined oil production increased to 87,000 barrels per day, and crude oil imports increased to 1.046 million barrels, indicating a recovery in refinery demand. However, the derived demand for crude oil production decreased to 1.9854 million barrels per day, while the demand for distillate fuel oil increased to 503,310 barrels per day [4][64][75]. - **Inventory Side**: On November 26, the EIA inventory report showed that crude oil inventories increased by 2.774 million barrels, far exceeding the expected 55,000 barrels and the previous value of -3.426 million barrels. Gasoline inventories increased by 2.513 million barrels, and refined oil inventories increased by 1.147 million barrels, both exceeding expectations. The strategic petroleum reserve inventory slightly decreased to 498,000 barrels [5][64][75]. Price Trend Judgment Crude oil prices may remain in a low - level oscillation or face slight downward pressure in the short term. The reasons include a significant increase in inventories, especially the unexpected growth of crude oil, gasoline, and refined oil inventories, indicating supply - surplus pressure. Although the reduction in US oil rigs provides long - term support, the short - term decline in derived demand and inventory accumulation suppress the upward price movement [5][69][76].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The copper price is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation in the next one to two weeks, driven by cost support on the supply side and improved macro - sentiment, but the weak demand restricts the increase. The price is expected to fluctuate between 86,000 - 87,000 yuan/ton [3][57] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: The SHFE price of the main contract rose slightly to 86,620 yuan/ton on November 26, up 70 yuan from the previous day. The basis of premium copper and flat - water copper increased slightly, while the LME(0 - 3) basis weakened to 9.52 US dollars/ton [1][56] - **Position and Trading Volume**: Market procurement sentiment slightly increased on November 26, trading volume slightly expanded, and there was no significant change in position data [1][57] Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: Chile's national copper company significantly raised the long - term contract price for 2026 to 350 US dollars/ton on November 26, reflecting rising supply costs. The Tibet Yulong Copper Project was put into operation on November 22, increasing the annual processing capacity of copper oxide ore to 1 million tons. The Australian Eva Copper Project was approved and is expected to be put into production in 2028, increasing future supply [2][57] - **Demand Side**: Downstream consumption in North China was weak on November 26. Limited funds at the end of the month led to poor demand. Although the overall procurement sentiment slightly increased, downstream price - pressing psychology was obvious [2][57] - **Inventory Side**: LME inventory continued to decline to 39,825 tons on November 26, a decrease of about 9.1% compared to November 20. SHFE inventory slightly increased to 156,575 tons, and COMEX inventory increased [2][57] Price Trend Judgment - **Future Trend**: It is expected that the copper price will maintain a high - level oscillation in the next one to two weeks [3][57] - **Driving Reasons**: On the supply side, the rising long - term contract price and future project commissioning imply rising costs and increased supply; on the demand side, weak downstream consumption and price - pressing psychology limit demand recovery; macro - sentiment is supported by the Fed's dovish remarks on November 26, which weakened the US dollar and supported risk assets including copper prices [58][59][60]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The supply pressure of TA suppresses price elasticity, and there is insufficient upward momentum. The future prices of PX and PTA are expected to continue to decline due to weak demand exacerbating the risk of oversupply, and inventory is likely to shift from differentiation to a general upward pressure [2][6]. 3. Section - by - Section Summaries 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **PTA & PX**: On November 26, the PX main contract closed at 6,774.0 yuan/ton, up 0.83% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 235.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4,684.0 yuan/ton, up 0.6% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 54.0 yuan/ton. The Brent crude oil main contract closed at 61.9 dollars/barrel, and WTI at 58.11 dollars/barrel. The total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 679.0 million meters, with a 15 - day average trading volume of 697.2 million meters [2]. - **Supply Side**: If there is no significant change in PX devices, the operating rate is expected to remain high. With stable crude oil prices, there is continuous cost support, which may support the upward movement of PX prices. The operation of PTA devices may be stable, but the strong upward trend of upstream PX indirectly increases PTA costs. If the device operating rate remains high, supply pressure still exists, which may suppress the increase [3]. - **Demand Side**: The trading volume of the Light Textile City decreased to 679.0 million meters (lower than the 15 - day average of 697.2 million meters), reflecting a slowdown in textile consumption and implying weak polyester demand. If the polyester operating rate follows the decline, it will directly weaken the support on the demand side of PTA, and the weak demand may further drag down the overall trend [4]. - **Inventory Side**: The risk of PTA factory inventory accumulation is expected to increase. Weak demand combined with a negative PTA main contract basis (- 54.0 yuan/ton) indicates that the market anticipates future supply to be loose or inventory pressure to increase. If the demand side does not improve, the pressure on the inventory side will strengthen the expectation of price decline. The deep negative basis of PX (- 235.0 yuan/ton) implies tight spot supply but cautious expectations for future inventory [5]. - **Polyester**: On November 26, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,264.0 yuan/ton, up 0.48% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,300.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a basis of 36.0 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the Light Textile City (MA15 moving average) decreased from 716.4 million meters to 697.2 million meters, indicating a continuous weakening of downstream textile demand. The inventory status is differentiated, but weak demand may lead to inventory accumulation. It is predicted that the future prices of the industrial chain (PX and PTA) will continue to decline [6]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **PX**: The main contract price of PX futures was 6,774 yuan/ton, up 0.83% from the previous day. The trading volume increased by 20.41%, and the open interest decreased by 1.88%. The CFR price at the main Chinese port remained unchanged, and the FOB price in South Korea increased by 0.50%. The PX basis decreased by 31.28% [8]. - **PTA**: The main contract price of PTA futures was 4,684 yuan/ton, up 0.60% from the previous day. The trading volume increased by 10.52%, and the open interest decreased by 0.50%. The CFR price at the main Chinese port remained unchanged. The PTA basis decreased by 107.69%, and the import profit increased by 0.33% [8]. - **Short - fiber**: The main contract price of short - fiber futures was 6,264 yuan/ton, up 0.48% from the previous day. The trading volume decreased by 5.69%, and the open interest decreased by 3.51%. The spot price in the East China market remained unchanged, and the PF basis decreased by 45.45% [8]. - **Other Products**: The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and some other products showed different degrees of change, while the prices of CFR Japan naphtha, ethylene glycol, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, and some polyester products remained unchanged [8]. 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Macro - dynamics**: On November 26, a Fed official in Milan believed that the economy needed significant interest rate cuts. On November 25, Fed official Daly supported a December interest rate cut, the market had the view of delaying the December interest - rate meeting, the probability of a December Fed interest rate cut rose to 80%, and the Israeli central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Zelensky said that the list of steps to end the conflict was approaching feasibility [10]. - **Supply - demand (Demand)**: On November 26, the total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 679.0 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 3.0%, with the trading volume of long - fiber fabrics at 550.0 million meters and that of short - fiber fabrics at 131.0 million meters [12].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core View - Over the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation pattern, with the main fluctuation range between RMB 95,000 and RMB 100,000 per ton. The stable supply restricts the upside space, while the demand is supported by new energy vehicle sales growth and good cell production scheduling. However, the downstream's rigid - demand - based procurement and strong wait - and - see sentiment, along with the negotiation of next year's long - term agreements, may suppress price breakthroughs. Meanwhile, continuous inventory reduction provides bottom support [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary - **Main Contract and Basis**: On November 26, 2025, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract was reported at RMB 96,340 per ton, up RMB 940 or 0.99% from the previous trading day, showing a slight increase. The basis was - RMB 5,140 per ton, weaker than the previous value of - RMB 4,200 per ton by RMB 940, indicating an expanded spot - futures price difference and a relatively weak spot market [1]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The position of the main contract reached 478,054 lots, a significant increase of 134,855 lots or 39.29% from the previous value of 343,199 lots. The trading volume was reported at 810,231 lots, a substantial increase of 298,952 lots or 58.47% from the previous value of 511,279 lots [1]. 2. Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: On November 21, 2025, the lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate remained at 75.34%, the same as on November 14. The market prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate were stable at RMB 8,615 per ton and RMB 4,825 per ton respectively. Lithium salt plants were operating at a high - level capacity, with spodumene and salt - lake sources as the main supply sources. It is expected that the November output will be flat month - on - month, and the overall supply is stable [2]. - **Demand Side**: According to the Passenger Car Association data on November 19, 2025, from November 1 - 16, the retail sales of new energy vehicles increased by 2% year - on - year and 7% month - on - month, and the wholesale sales increased by 1% year - on - year and 17% month - on - month. The downstream cell prices increased slightly. The power and energy storage markets had strong demand, and cell production scheduling was positive [2]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: On November 21, 2025, the lithium carbonate inventory was reported at 118,420 physical tons, a decrease of 2,052 tons or 1.7% from 120,472 physical tons on November 14 [2]. 3. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - From November 25 to November 26, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract price increased from RMB 95,400 per ton to RMB 96,340 per ton, up RMB 940 or 0.99%. The basis weakened from - RMB 4,200 per ton to - RMB 5,140 per ton. The position increased from 343,199 lots to 478,054 lots, up 134,855 lots or 39.29%, and the trading volume increased from 511,279 lots to 810,231 lots, up 298,952 lots or 58.47%. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at RMB 91,200 per ton. The market prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate remained stable at RMB 8,615 per ton and RMB 4,825 per ton respectively. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased from RMB 160,500 per ton to RMB 163,000 per ton, up RMB 2,500 or 1.56%. The price of power - type ternary materials increased from RMB 143,950 per ton to RMB 144,150 per ton, up RMB 200 or 0.14%, and the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate increased from RMB 38,925 per ton to RMB 39,110 per ton, up RMB 185 or 0.48% [5]. - From November 14 to November 21, 2025, the lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate remained at 75.34%. The inventory decreased from 120,472 physical tons to 118,420 physical tons, a decrease of 2,052 tons or 1.7%. The price of 523 cylindrical ternary cells increased from RMB 4.54 per piece to RMB 4.64 per piece, up RMB 0.1 or 2.2%. The price of 523 square ternary cells remained unchanged at RMB 0.50 per Wh. The price of 523 soft - pack ternary cells remained unchanged at RMB 0.52 per Wh. The price of square lithium iron phosphate cells remained unchanged at RMB 0.34 per Wh. The price of cobalt - acid lithium cells increased from RMB 7.35 per Ah to RMB 7.45 per Ah, up RMB 0.1 or 1.36% [5]. 4. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market Quotations**: On November 26, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was RMB 93,415 per ton, up RMB 953 per ton from the previous working day. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was in the range of RMB 90,000 - 95,600 per ton, with an average of RMB 92,800 per ton, up RMB 750 per ton from the previous working day. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was in the range of RMB 88,800 - 92,000 per ton, with an average of RMB 90,400 per ton, up RMB 750 per ton from the previous working day. The lithium carbonate futures showed a range - bound oscillation pattern, with the main contract switched to 2605, and the futures price mainly fluctuating between RMB 95,300 and RMB 99,900 per ton. The downstream material factories' procurement willingness returned to a wait - and - see attitude after a brief recovery, and the procurement was still mainly for rigid demand, with light market transactions. Currently, upstream and downstream enterprises are negotiating next year's long - term agreements, mainly focusing on the coefficient [6]. - **Downstream Consumption Situation**: According to the Passenger Car Association data on November 19, from November 1 - 16, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market were 554,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 2% and a month - on - month increase of 7%. The cumulative retail sales this year reached 1,070.3 million units, a year - on - year increase of 21%. The wholesale sales of new energy vehicles by national passenger car manufacturers were 618,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 1% and a month - on - month increase of 17%. The cumulative wholesale sales this year reached 1,267.5 million units, a year - on - year increase of 28% [7]. - **Industry News**: On November 21, according to "Longyan Release", the project of Sanwei (Longyan) Battery Technology Co., Ltd. was officially launched in the Gaopi area of Longyan High - tech Zone (Economic Development Zone), Fujian Province. The project, with a total investment of RMB 580 million, is expected to have an annual production capacity of 1 GWh of three - dimensional solid - state lithium batteries and an annual output value exceeding RMB 1.2 billion [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The pure benzene market is significantly affected by the large fluctuations in crude oil and refined oil. The gasoline crack spread has changed from strong to weak, weakening the support from gasoline blending. Supply may decrease due to overseas plant shutdowns and domestic factory load - reduction plans, but the weakening cost due to falling oil prices restricts price increases. The market is likely to maintain a weak and stable oscillation in the short term [2]. - The styrene market is in a state of intertwined supply - demand forces. The impact of new production capacity has been gradually absorbed, and supply pressure is moderately stable. Demand has a certain boost from exports. However, the weakening cost leads to price oscillations. In the short term, styrene is expected to remain in low - level oscillations, and the market direction depends on export continuity and cost stability [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamentals - **Price**: On November 26, the styrene main contract closed up 1.35% at 6,533 yuan/ton with a basis of 64 (+0 yuan/ton); the pure benzene main contract closed up 0.96% at 5,463 yuan/ton. The spot price of East China pure benzene was 5,330 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Cost**: On November 26, Brent crude oil closed at $58.0/barrel (-$0.9/barrel), and WTI crude oil closed at $61.8/barrel (-$0.9/barrel) [2]. - **Inventory**: Styrene port inventory was 14.8 tons (-2.7 tons), a 15.2% month - on - month de - stocking. Pure benzene port inventory was 14.7 tons (+3.4 tons), a 30.1% month - on - month stocking [2]. - **Supply**: Styrene production and capacity utilization had a slight month - on - month change. Weekly styrene output was 34.3 tons (-0.1 tons), and factory capacity utilization was 69.0% (-0.3%) [2]. - **Demand**: The overall demand of downstream 3S industries improved. EPS capacity utilization was 56.3% (+4.6%), ABS capacity utilization was 72.4% (+0.6%), and PS capacity utilization was 55.9% (+0.5%) [2]. (2) Views - **Pure Benzene**: The market is affected by crude oil and refined oil fluctuations. The gasoline crack spread has weakened, reducing the support from gasoline blending. Supply may decrease, but the weakening cost restricts price increases. The market is likely to oscillate weakly and stably in the short term [2]. - **Styrene**: The market is in a state of intertwined supply - demand forces. The impact of new capacity has been absorbed, and exports may support demand. However, the weakening cost leads to oscillations. It is expected to remain in low - level oscillations in the short term [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring - **Price**: Styrene futures and pure benzene futures prices increased on November 26, while styrene spot prices decreased. Crude oil prices decreased [5]. - **Output and Inventory**: Styrene and pure benzene production decreased slightly. Styrene port and factory inventories decreased, while pure benzene port inventory increased [6]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization of some pure benzene and styrene downstream industries increased, while that of some decreased [7]. 3. Industry News - The EU imposed sanctions on several Russian individuals. - The number of non - farm payrolls in the US in September increased by 119,000, higher than market expectations. - Iran's foreign minister announced the official termination of the Cairo Agreement with the IAEA. - The US Department of Energy announced a reorganization, prioritizing oil and nuclear resources [8]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides charts on pure benzene and styrene prices, production, inventory, and capacity utilization, with data sources from iFinD and Steel Union Data [10][11][20]

Group 1: Ethylene Glycol Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: The price of the main ethylene glycol futures contract rose from 3,873 yuan/ton to 3,896 yuan/ton, a 0.59% increase. The spot price in East China remained flat at 3,900 yuan/ton, resulting in a basis (spot - futures) of +4 yuan/ton [2][50]. - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: The trading volume of the main contract decreased significantly by 30.79% to 177,363 lots, and the open interest decreased by 5.45% to 289,511 lots, indicating a decline in market participation [2][37][38]. *** Group 2: Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate remained stable at 67.63%, with the coal - based operating rate at 54.29% and the oil - based operating rate at 76.23%. Coal - based profit improved significantly to 187 yuan/ton, a 66.34% increase, while losses in ethylene - based processes deepened [2][45][50]. - **Demand Side**: The load of downstream polyester factories was 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 63.43%, both remaining unchanged, indicating stable demand [2][3][50]. - **Inventory Side**: The inventory at the main ports in East China remained flat at 732,000 tons, while the inventory in Zhangjiagang increased by 10,000 tons to 285,000 tons, a 3.64% increase, slightly increasing the port inventory pressure [3][50]. *** Group 3: Price Trend Judgment The ethylene glycol price is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly upward pattern. The reasons are as follows: the stable supply - side operating rate and the improvement in coal - based profit may support production willingness; the stable demand - side load supports the fundamentals; although there is a slight increase in Zhangjiagang's inventory, the overall inventory pressure is controllable. However, the expanding losses in oil - based production may limit the upside potential, and cost changes need to be monitored [50].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The price of pure benzene is expected to maintain a weak and stable oscillation in the short term, influenced by both supply improvement and cost decline [2] - The short - term trend of styrene is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation, with cost weakening but relatively strong price support at the bottom due to marginal tightening of supply and arrivals [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamentals - **Price**: On November 25, the main contract of styrene closed up 0.16% at 6446 yuan/ton, with a basis of 64 (+0 yuan/ton); the main contract of pure benzene closed down 0.11% at 5411 yuan/ton [2] - **Cost**: On November 25, Brent crude oil closed at 58.8 dollars/barrel (+0.8 dollars/barrel), WTI crude oil closed at 62.7 dollars/barrel (+0.8 dollars/barrel), and the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5320 yuan/ton (-40 yuan/ton) [2] - **Inventory**: Styrene port inventory was 14.8 tons (-2.7 tons), a 15.2% month - on - month de - stocking; pure benzene port inventory was 14.7 tons (+3.4 tons), a 30.1% month - on - month stocking [2] - **Supply**: Styrene's production and capacity utilization fluctuated slightly month - on - month. Currently, the weekly output of styrene was 34.3 tons (-0.1 tons), and the factory capacity utilization was 69.0% (-0.3%) [2] - **Demand**: The overall demand of the downstream 3S industries recovered. The capacity utilization of EPS was 56.3% (+4.6%), ABS was 72.4% (+0.6%), and PS was 55.9% (+0.5%) [2] (2) Views - **Pure benzene**: International oil prices and refined oil prices have fluctuated sharply, affecting the trend of pure benzene. The gasoline crack spread has weakened, reducing the support from gasoline blending. Supply may improve marginally as some US disproportionation units have shut down, potentially reducing China's imports by about 5 tons. Although it is the seasonal stocking period in the fourth quarter, the stocking amplitude may decrease. However, the weakening of crude oil prices is the main factor restricting the market, and the market is expected to remain in a range - bound oscillation [2] - **Styrene**: The supply side of styrene is still a mix of positive and negative factors, but it has maintained a relatively low operating level since October. The impact of previous large - scale plant launches has been digested. Domestic demand has changed little, but previous exports have increased. If some orders continue, it will help improve the supply - demand situation. However, the weakening of cost support has led to an oscillating trend. The supply in December may be affected by potential production cuts at some East China pure benzene plants, and the expected low arrivals at the main ports will keep the basis relatively strong, with spot transactions mainly for rigid demand [3] 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring (1) Styrene and Pure Benzene Prices - Styrene futures increased by 0.16% to 6446 yuan/ton, and spot prices increased by 0.70% to 6636 yuan/ton. The basis remained unchanged [5] - Pure benzene futures decreased by 0.44% to 5411 yuan/ton, and East China spot prices decreased by 0.56% to 5290 yuan/ton. International prices also declined [5] - The spread between domestic and CFR pure benzene increased by 2.41%, while the spread between East China and Shandong pure benzene decreased by 37.50% [5] - Brent crude oil increased by 1.34% to 58.8 dollars/barrel, WTI crude oil increased by 1.26% to 62.7 dollars/barrel, and naphtha prices remained unchanged [5] (2) Styrene and Pure Benzene Production and Inventory - China's styrene production decreased by 0.43% to 34.3 tons, and pure benzene production decreased by 1.67% to 44.7 tons [6] - Styrene port inventory in Jiangsu decreased by 15.16% to 14.8 tons, and domestic factory inventory decreased by 0.70% to 18.8 tons [6] - National pure benzene port inventory increased by 30.09% to 14.7 tons [6] (3) Capacity Utilization - The capacity utilization of styrene decreased by 0.30% to 69.0%, that of caprolactam increased by 2.18% to 88.2%, that of phenol increased by 11.46% to 78.7%, and that of aniline decreased by 4.49% to 75.7% [7] - Among styrene downstream industries, the capacity utilization of EPS increased by 4.54% to 56.3%, VBS increased by 0.60% to 72.4%, and PS increased by 0.50% to 55.9% [7] 3. Industry News - The EU imposed sanctions on several Russian individuals [8] - The number of non - farm payrolls in the US in September increased by 119,000, higher than market expectations [8] - The Iranian Foreign Minister announced the official termination of the Cairo Agreement signed with the International Atomic Energy Agency [8] - The US Department of Energy announced a restructuring, prioritizing oil and nuclear energy resources over the previous focus on renewable energy and energy efficiency [8] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - Charts include those of pure benzene prices, styrene prices, styrene - pure benzene spreads, SM import and domestic pure benzene costs, styrene port and factory inventories, pure benzene port inventory, ABS inventory, and capacity utilization of related products [13][18][22]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil prices may remain volatile in the short term but face downward risks in the medium to long term The overall supply - demand imbalance in the industry persists, with supply likely to exceed demand If the supply increment continues to be released, prices may be pressured downward [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Crude Oil Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contracts and Basis**: As of November 24, 2025, the prices of crude oil main contracts rose slightly. SC crude oil futures were reported at 447.9 yuan/barrel, up 0.5 yuan (0.11% increase) from 447.4 yuan/barrel on November 21; WTI crude oil futures were at 58.89 dollars/barrel, up 0.91 dollars (1.57% increase); Brent crude oil futures were at 62.75 dollars/barrel, up 0.86 dollars (1.39% increase) [2] - **Spreads**: SC - Brent spread was 0.28 dollars/barrel, down 0.75 dollars (72.82% decrease); SC - WTI spread was 4.14 dollars/barrel, down 0.8 dollars (16.19% decrease); Brent - WTI spread was 3.86 dollars/barrel, down 0.05 dollars (1.28% decrease); SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread was - 4.0 yuan/barrel, down 2.2 yuan (122.22% decrease), indicating a significant weakening of the spread and a relative weakening of near - month contracts [2] 3.1.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: Information shows potential supply increases. Abu Dhabi National Oil Company announced the establishment of a new company to manage the Ghasha gas field, with an expected daily production of 1.8 billion standard cubic feet of natural gas and 150,000 barrels of oil and condensate; Suriname opened 60% of its offshore oil and gas exploration areas; Russia's Tuapse refinery resumed oil processing on November 21; Abu Dhabi National Oil Company increased its oil reserves by 7 billion barrels to a total of 120 billion barrels Geopolitical factors may affect supply stability [3] - **Demand Side**: Demand signals are divided. The US Secretary of Commerce mentioned raising diesel prices with the EU, suggesting stronger refined oil demand; Indonesia's state - owned oil company sold 100,000 barrels of gasoline to VIVO However, Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 20 decreased by 14.1% - 20.5% month - on - month, and the decline in external markets such as crude oil futures may drag down overall energy demand; Russia's oil and gas revenues in November are expected to decline by 35% year - on - year, and Oman's fiscal revenue from January - September decreased by 8% due to reduced oil revenues [4] - **Inventory Side**: There is a lack of direct inventory indicators, but indirect evidence points to pressure. The decline in Russia's oil and gas revenues and Oman's fiscal revenue implies high inventory or oversupply; Indonesia's auction of a sanctioned oil tanker may reflect the disposal of excess crude oil inventory The risk of overall supply - demand imbalance has increased [5][6] 3.1.3 Price Trend Judgment - Crude oil prices may remain volatile in the short term but face downward risks in the medium to long term In the short term, the price increase on November 24 was due to supply - side events and partial demand - side support, but the widespread weakening of spreads shows market concerns about supply - demand balance The continuous expansion of supply may exacerbate oversupply, while the divided demand signals indicate unstable global demand Indirect inventory signals strengthen the expectation of oversupply [7] 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring 3.2.1 Crude Oil - **Futures Prices**: SC, WTI, and Brent crude oil futures prices rose on November 24 compared to November 21, while the OPEC basket price remained unchanged - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of some crude oil varieties such as Shengli, Dubai, ESPO, and Duri decreased - **Spreads**: All spreads, including SC - Brent, SC - WTI, Brent - WTI, and SC continuous - consecutive 3, showed a weakening trend - **Other Assets**: The US dollar index, S&P 500, DAX index, and US strategic reserve inventory increased, while the RMB exchange rate remained stable The US commercial crude oil inventory and Cushing inventory decreased, and the API inventory increased The US refinery's weekly operating rate and crude oil processing volume increased [8] 3.2.2 Fuel Oil - **Futures Prices**: The price of FU fuel oil futures rose, while the prices of LU and NYMEX fuel oil futures decreased Some prices in IF0380, MDO, MGO, etc. remained unchanged - **Spot Prices**: Most spot prices remained stable, with only slight increases in the FOB prices of marine 180CST and 380CST in Singapore and a decrease in the CIF price of Russian M100 - **Paper Prices**: The paper prices of high - sulfur 180 and 380 in Singapore's near - month contracts increased slightly - **Spreads**: Spreads such as Singapore's high - low sulfur spread, China's high - low sulfur spread, LU - Singapore FOB(0.5%S), and FU - Singapore 380CST all changed to varying degrees - **Platts and Inventory**: The Platts prices of 380CST and 180CST decreased, and the Singapore inventory decreased Some US distillate inventory data were not updated [9] 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Supply - On November 24, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company will establish a new company to manage the Ghasha acid gas field, with an expected daily production of 1.8 billion standard cubic feet of natural gas and 150,000 barrels of oil and condensate; Suriname opened 60% of its offshore oil and gas exploration areas; Syria received nearly 1 million barrels of crude oil from Saudi Arabia [10][11] 3.3.2 Demand - Russia's Tuapse refinery resumed oil processing on November 21; the US Secretary of Commerce mentioned raising diesel prices with the EU; Indonesia's state - owned oil company sold 100,000 barrels of gasoline to VIVO [12] 3.3.3 Inventory - Abu Dhabi National Oil Company's board of directors will increase oil reserves by 7 billion barrels, bringing the total to 120 billion barrels [13] 3.3.4 Market Information - On November 24, Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump, clarifying China's principled stance on the Taiwan issue; the US may directly dialogue with Venezuelan President Maduro; at the close, Shanghai gold, silver, and SC crude oil main contracts all rose; Oman's fiscal revenue from January - September decreased by 8% due to reduced oil revenues; Kazakhstan's national oil and gas company's revenue increased by 11% year - on - year in the first nine months; Russia's oil and gas revenues in November are expected to decline by 35% year - on - year; Indonesia is auctioning a sanctioned supertanker and its crude oil; Malaysia's palm oil futures may decline due to negative fundamentals and lower external markets [14][15] 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes multiple data charts related to the oil industry, such as the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, US weekly crude oil production, OPEC crude oil production, etc [16][18][20]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The polyester chain is in a volatile pattern due to the game between cost drag and terminal resilience in production starts [2] - The future trend of the polyester industry chain is weakening, with PTA and PX prices likely to decline further and downstream polyester product prices under pressure [7] - PX may see a slight increase, while PTA may fluctuate or decline slightly [51] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary PTA & PX - On November 24, the PX main contract closed at 6,772.0 yuan/ton, up 0.33% from the previous trading day, with a basis of -229.0 yuan/ton; the PTA main contract closed at 4,680.0 yuan/ton, up 0.3% from the previous trading day, with a basis of -60.0 yuan/ton [3] - On the cost side, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 62.51 US dollars/barrel, and WTI closed at 57.98 US dollars/barrel; on the demand side, the total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 642.0 million meters, with a 15 - day average transaction of 693.8 million meters [3] - On the supply side, potential device maintenance or low operating rates may tighten supply. PTA's supply depends on PX input, and rising PX costs may strengthen PTA's cost support, with future prices likely to fluctuate upward [4] - On the demand side, the significantly lower trading volume in the Light Textile City indicates weak terminal textile consumption, which may pressure the polyester operating rate and weaken PTA procurement willingness. The impact on PX demand is limited due to its low consumption elasticity [5] - On the inventory side, the risk of PTA inventory accumulation increases the downward price space. A decline in the polyester operating rate may slow down PTA shipments and increase factory inventory. Once PTA inventory rises, supply - demand imbalance will amplify selling pressure [6] Polyester - On November 24, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,242.0 yuan/ton, up 1.3% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,300.0 yuan/ton, up 15.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 58.0 yuan/ton [7] - The continuous decline in the trading volume of the China Light Textile City reflects weak downstream demand. The overall inventory accumulation signal is emerging, especially the weak demand for filament yarns [7] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: The main contract price increased by 0.33%, the trading volume decreased by 23.12%, and the open interest decreased by 0.16% [8] - PTA futures: The main contract price increased by 0.30%, the trading volume decreased by 18.12%, and the open interest decreased by 0.17% [8] - Short - fiber futures: The main contract price increased by 1.30%, the trading volume decreased by 8.95%, and the open interest decreased by 3.00% [8] - Other products: Most product prices remained stable, with only a few showing slight changes [8][9] 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation Macroeconomic Dynamics - Fed officials had different views on interest rate cuts on November 24 and 21, and the decision - making on interest rate cuts became more complex due to factors such as the cancellation of the October CPI report and employment data [10][11] - Regarding the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the Geneva talks between the US and Ukraine were reported to have "made progress," and the peace process was considered to be advancing [10] Supply - Demand - Demand - On November 24, the total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 642.0 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 16.62%, with 526.0 million meters of filament fabric trading volume and 115.0 million meters of short - fiber fabric trading volume [12] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts related to PX, PTA, short - fiber futures and spot prices, basis, capacity utilization, etc. [13][15][17]

Ethylene Glycol Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: The price of the main ethylene glycol futures contract rose from 3,808 yuan/ton to 3,884 yuan/ton, an increase of 76 yuan or 2.0%, while the spot price in East China remained stable at 3,845 yuan/ton The basis (spot minus futures) was -39 yuan/ton, indicating a deeper discount and an expanded premium of the futures market relative to the spot, possibly driven by the capital side [2]. - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: The open interest of the main contract decreased from 353,300 lots to 317,468 lots, a decrease of 35,832 lots or 10.14%, suggesting that some long or short positions were closed The trading volume increased significantly from 164,315 lots to 282,100 lots, an increase of 117,785 lots or 71.68%, indicating increased market trading activity, but the decrease in open interest implies that short - term speculative behavior is dominant [2]. *** Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate remained stable at 67.63%, with the oil - based operating rate at 76.23% and the coal - based operating rate at 54.29% However, the profit structure was divided The oil - based profit (such as ethylene oxidation method) generally deteriorated, for example, the profit of ethylene - SHELL oxidation method decreased from - 799 yuan/ton to - 889 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan, indicating rising crude oil cost pressure The coal - based profit improved from 112.46 yuan/ton to 187.07 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan, indicating that the decrease in coal cost supported coal - based production capacity [2]. - **Demand Side**: The load of downstream polyester factories remained stable at 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained at 63.43%, showing no change, reflecting stable terminal demand without significant improvement or deterioration The high load of the polyester sector supported ethylene glycol consumption, but the low loom load indicated weak terminal textile demand [3]. - **Inventory Side**: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased from 661,000 tons to 732,000 tons, an increase of 71,000 tons or 10.74% The inventory in Zhangjiagang increased from 215,000 tons to 275,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons or 27.91%, indicating obvious inventory accumulation, increased port arrivals or insufficient shipments, and increased inventory pressure [3]. *** Price Trend Judgment: The ethylene glycol price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with the upside limited by inventory pressure and the deterioration of oil - based profits On the supply side, the operating rate is stable but the profit is divided, with rising crude oil costs suppressing oil - based production capacity and falling coal costs benefiting coal - based production On the demand side, the high load of polyester provides support, but the low loom load and continuous inventory accumulation highlight the pressure of loose supply - demand The arrival of foreign goods is not mentioned to have changed, but the inventory increase implies potential import pressure Overall, the short - term rise of futures is driven by active trading, but the high inventory and stable demand in the fundamentals will limit the upside space, and the price may fluctuate in the bottom range [3].