Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The listing of pure benzene futures/options allows caprolactam (CPL) enterprises to shift from being "passive price takers" to "active cost managers". By focusing on procurement price locking (going long on BZ), combined with rolling position transfers and basis point pricing, and using options to set a cost ceiling, profit fluctuations can be contained within an "operationally acceptable" range [2][3][24]. - The key is to closely align spot plans, futures positions, and profit accounting to form a complete, reviewable, auditable, and optimizable process loop, rather than "guessing price directions" [3][24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Pure Benzene Industry Chain and Pricing Logic - **Pure Benzene**: It is a basic organic raw material in the petrochemical industry chain with wide - ranging downstream applications. Its price fluctuations significantly impact the cost of CPL production enterprises. Supply is affected by refinery operating rates, import arbitrage windows, and crude oil trends. Demand is mainly from styrene (nearly 50%) and CPL (about 15% - 20%). Its price is highly correlated with crude oil, PX, and styrene, with obvious cyclical fluctuations and relatively limited basis fluctuations in monthly and quarterly dimensions, providing a basis for hedging [4]. - **Caprolactam (CPL)**: It is the core raw material for producing polyamide 6 (PA6). Raw material costs account for over 70% of CPL production costs, with pure benzene having the highest proportion. Its price is driven by pure benzene, energy costs, downstream demand, and industry supply - demand patterns, and there is a certain price - spread transmission relationship with pure benzene [7]. II. Price Linkage Analysis between Pure Benzene and CPL - **Historical Price - Spread Relationship**: Since 2020, the prices of pure benzene and CPL have been highly correlated, with correlation coefficients generally between 0.7 - 0.9, and the CPL - BZ price spread has weakened year by year. In 2025, the average price spread was only 3,201 yuan/ton [8]. - **Profit Transmission**: There are three types of profit transmission: upstream - driven (crude oil price increase leads to reduced CPL profits), downstream - demand - driven (strong demand for spinning and engineering plastics repairs CPL profits), and import - window - driven (opening or closing of the import arbitrage window affects CPL spot pricing) [10]. III. Hedging Strategy Design for Pure Benzene and CPL - **Hedging Principles**: The core goal of hedging is to lock in the enterprise's future production profits. Strategies include full - hedging (maximally hedges raw material price increase risks but loses potential benefits from price drops), proportional - hedging (balances risk hedging and profit elasticity), rolling - hedging (spreads the risk of entry timing but requires high risk - control and fund - management capabilities), and cross - hedging (using other related varieties, but may be ineffective when correlations are insufficient) [11][12][13][14]. - **Calculation of Hedging Lots**: The number of hedging lots = external pure benzene procurement volume ÷ contract unit × hedging ratio. There is a dynamic adjustment mechanism based on production and sales plans, price spreads between spot and futures, and market expectations [15]. - **Key Points of Strategy Implementation**: Select the main contract or near - month contracts with good liquidity, set a margin occupancy cap, and evaluate hedging effectiveness by comparing simulated profits with non - hedged profits [16]. IV. Case Calculation and Profit Scenarios - **Price - Spread Calculation**: Using the "CPL - pure benzene" price spread as an approximate measure of profit can guide hedging ratios and risk management. Different price - spread scenarios are simulated, and a profit warning line of 2,800 yuan/ton is set. Different hedging strategies are recommended based on different price - spread ranges [17][18][19][20]. - **Risk Situations and Strategy Adjustments**: Different risks such as spatial mismatch, time mismatch, excessive basis weakening or strengthening, and simultaneous fluctuations in nominal price spreads and basis are considered, and corresponding strategies are proposed [23].

通惠期货研发部 李英杰 乙二醇供给增量叠加累库压制，延续偏弱震荡 一、日度市场总结 主力合约与基差：乙二醇主力合约从8月15日的4412元/吨下跌至8月18日的 4392元/吨，跌幅0.45%，延续偏弱震荡走势；同期华东现货价格从4455元/ 吨回落至4435元/吨，基差由48元/吨扩大至68元/吨，现货升水走强反映短 期供需矛盾有所加剧。分合约价差显示，1-5价差进一步走阔至-43元/吨， 表明近月压力大于远月预期。 持仓与成交：主力合约持仓量从14.8万手降至13.3万手，降幅达10.54%， 但成交量从7.2万手激增至11.0万手，增幅53.7%，显示价格波动加剧引发 资金活跃度提升，但部分空头资金存在主动减仓行为。 供给端：乙二醇开工率由62.64%升至64.05%，油制路线开工率显著提升2.4 个百分点至64.13%，煤制开工率维持64.03%未变，总体供给压力小幅增 加，煤化工装置负荷仍维持高位。 需求端：聚酯工厂负荷稳定于89.42%，江浙织机负荷亦维持63.43%未变， 下游需求进入平台期，缺乏新增订单驱动下，原料补库意愿有限。 库存端：华东主港库存一周内增加5.9万吨至48.57万吨，其中张 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - PTA may shift from a cost-driven logic to a demand-driven narrative, and attention should be paid to demand inflection point signals [1] - The polyester chain may break away from cost constraints and shift towards a narrative of increasing demand in the short term, but there is a risk that the peak-season demand may not materialize [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 PTA & PX - On August 18, the PX main contract closed at 6,760.0 yuan/ton, up 1.08% from the previous trading day, with a basis of -179.0 yuan/ton; the PTA main contract closed at 4,746.0 yuan/ton, up 0.64%, with a basis of -96.0 yuan/ton [2] - On the cost side, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 66.13 US dollars/barrel, and WTI at 62.29 US dollars/barrel; on the demand side, the total turnover of the Light Textile City was 5.09 million meters, and the 15-day average turnover was 4.8273 million meters [2] - The PX plant operating rate remains high with no large-scale maintenance plans; some PTA plants have restart expectations, and the overall operating rate may increase month-on-month, but some factories may have the intention to reduce production due to low processing fees [3] - The polyester industry's operating rate remains stable at a high level, short-term weaving orders are seasonally increasing, and the Light Textile City's transaction data has exceeded the 15-day average, indicating that terminal demand improvement supports PTA's rigid demand [4] - The absolute value of PTA factory inventory is still at a medium to high level, social inventory pressure has not been significantly relieved, and the weak spot basis reflects abundant market circulation supplies [5] 3.1.2 Polyester - On August 18, the short fiber main contract closed at 6,462.0 yuan/ton, up 0.97% from the previous trading day; the spot price in the East China market was 6,475.0 yuan/ton, up 10.0 yuan/ton, with a basis of 13.0 yuan/ton [6] - From August 8 to 18, PX futures prices first fell and then rose, while PTA futures prices fluctuated upward, reflecting enhanced cost support and a tightening supply pattern [6] - The MA15 of the Light Textile City's trading volume slightly declined during August 8 - 18, and downstream procurement intensity weakened marginally but remained stable overall [6] - The current inventory of polyester staple fiber is 7.25 days, higher than the five-year average; among polyester filament, POY inventory is 16.1 days, significantly lower than the historical average, FDY inventory is 23.3 days, slightly higher than the average, and DTY inventory is 28.2 days, close to the average [6] 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: The main contract price increased by 1.08% to 6,760 yuan/ton, trading volume decreased by 6.58%, and open interest increased by 2.01% [8] - PTA futures: The main contract price rose 0.64% to 4,746 yuan/ton, trading volume decreased by 1.25%, and open interest increased by 0.08% [8] - Short fiber futures: The main contract price increased by 0.97% to 6,462 yuan/ton, trading volume increased by 8.89%, and open interest decreased by 4.69% [8] - Other products: Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil prices increased slightly, while most other products' prices remained stable or changed slightly [8][9] 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Macroeconomic Dynamics - On August 18, Fed's Daly said waiting for more data, and the number of interest rate cuts this year is uncertain; Goolsbee said the latest PPI and CPI inflation data are worrying, and interest rate cuts may be possible if there are signs of no inflation spiral [10] - On August 18, Hong Kong's Financial Secretary Chen Maobo said that a plan for Hong Kong to develop an international gold trading center will be announced this year [10] - On August 15, the US July PPI annual rate reached a high since February, and the monthly rate was the largest since June 2022, leading to a reduction in Fed interest rate cut bets [10] - On August 15, US Treasury Secretary Yellen said the US will retain gold as a store of value, stop selling Bitcoin holdings, and did not call for a 150 - basis - point interest rate cut [10] - On August 15, the usage of the Fed's overnight reverse repurchase tool reached a new low since April 2021, and Fed officials refuted the expectation of a large - scale interest rate cut in September [10][11] 3.3.2 Supply - Demand (Demand) - On August 18, the total turnover of the Light Textile City was 5.09 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 19.08%, with 4.04 million meters of long - fiber fabric turnover and 1.03 million meters of short - fiber fabric turnover [12] 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on PX and PTA futures and spot prices, basis, capacity utilization, futures spreads, processing profits, industrial chain load rates, polyester product sales, and inventory days [13][15][17]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Over the next 1 - 2 weeks, the lithium carbonate futures market may shift to a wide - range, volatile, and bullish pattern. Although supply disturbances have boosted market bullish sentiment, the impact of current mine shutdowns on actual production is yet to be seen, and lithium salt plants maintain high operating rates, so the spot market still faces inventory pressure. On the demand side, the growth rate of new energy vehicle sales is slowing down, and the "anti - involution" initiative in the battery industry chain restrains the mid - stream's impulse to expand production, so there is a risk of revising the peak - season expectations. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in policy implementation and the progress of mine rectification in Jiangxi [3]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Market Summary - **Analysis of Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data** - On August 18, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract rose to 89,240 yuan/ton; the basis weakened from - 3,600 yuan/ton to - 5,940 yuan/ton, indicating that the market's pricing of the supply - tightening expectation increased [1]. - The open interest of the main contract increased by 19,967 lots to 421,106 lots, and the trading volume increased to 1.036328 million lots. The simultaneous expansion of volume and open interest shows that the divergence among funds on the direction of lithium prices has intensified, and the market's gambling sentiment has heated up [1]. - **Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes** - **Supply side**: The shutdown of Ningde Times' Jianxiawo Mine in Jiangxi has triggered market concerns about the shortage of lithium mica supply. Coupled with the regulatory pressure on local mines to complete the re - application of ore types by September 30, the uncertainty of lithium ore supply has increased. However, the prices of spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate are stable at 940 yuan/ton and 990 yuan/ton respectively, and the weekly capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate remains flat at 63.92%. The short - term actual supply has not significantly shrunk [2]. - **Demand side**: The retail performance of new energy vehicles is moderate, with the year - on - year growth rate dropping to 6% from August 1 - 10, indicating marginal weakening pressure on demand. However, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased by 0.54% week - on - week to 55,500 yuan/ton, and the price of power ternary materials slightly increased by 0.42% to 119,695 yuan/ton, indicating that there is still some support for downstream inventory - building demand [2]. - **Inventory and warehouse receipts**: Lithium carbonate inventory decreased slightly by 162 physical tons to 142,256 tons (a decrease of 0.11%), and the absolute value is still at a high level this year. The number of warehouse receipts has not changed abnormally, and the overall inventory pressure has not been substantially relieved [2]. - **Market Price** - Future 1 - 2 weeks, the lithium carbonate futures market may enter a wide - range, volatile, and bullish pattern. Although supply disturbances have boosted market bullish sentiment, the impact of current mine shutdowns on actual production is yet to be seen, and the spot market still faces inventory pressure. On the demand side, the growth rate of new energy vehicle sales is slowing down, and the "anti - involution" initiative in the battery industry chain restrains the mid - stream's impulse to expand production, so there is a risk of revising the peak - season expectations. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in policy implementation and the progress of mine rectification in Jiangxi [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - From August 15 to August 18, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract rose from 86,900 yuan/ton to 89,240 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,340 yuan or 2.69%. The basis weakened from - 3,600 yuan/ton to - 5,940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,340 yuan or 65%. The open interest of the main contract increased from 401,139 lots to 421,106 lots, an increase of 19,967 lots or 4.98%. The trading volume of the main contract increased from 868,811 lots to 1,036,328 lots, an increase of 167,517 lots or 19.28% [5]. - The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 83,300 yuan/ton. The market prices of spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate remained unchanged at 940 yuan/ton and 990 yuan/ton respectively. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased from 55,200 yuan/ton to 55,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan or 0.54%. The price of power ternary materials increased from 119,195 yuan/ton to 119,695 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan or 0.42%. The price of power lithium iron phosphate increased from 35,655 yuan/ton to 36,170 yuan/ton, an increase of 515 yuan or 1.44% [5]. - From August 8 to August 15, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 63.92%. Lithium carbonate inventory decreased from 142,418 physical tons to 142,256 physical tons, a decrease of 162 physical tons or 0.11%. The price of 523 cylindrical ternary cells increased from 4.31 yuan/piece to 4.32 yuan/piece, an increase of 0.01 yuan or 0.23%. The price of 523 square ternary cells increased from 0.38 yuan/Wh to 0.39 yuan/Wh, an increase of 0.00 yuan or 0.26%. The price of 523 soft - pack ternary cells remained unchanged at 0.40 yuan/Wh. The price of square lithium iron phosphate cells remained unchanged at 0.32 yuan/Wh. The price of cobalt - acid lithium cells increased from 5.53 yuan/Ah to 5.55 yuan/Ah, an increase of 0.02 yuan or 0.36% [5]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market Quotation (August 18)**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 84,794 yuan/ton, a increase of 2,069 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. The price range of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 82,500 - 86,700 yuan/ton, with an average price of 84,600 yuan/ton, a increase of 1,900 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. The price range of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 81,600 - 83,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 82,300 yuan/ton, a increase of 1,900 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. Affected by the news that a lithium salt production enterprise in Qinghai may face shutdown due to the mining license issue, the futures price continued to rise, breaking through the 90,000 - yuan/ton mark at the highest. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm continued to increase, and the market activity increased. Due to the rigid - demand purchasing needs of some downstream enterprises and the general reluctance - to - sell sentiment of upstream and traders, the center of the spot transaction price of lithium carbonate continued to move up significantly. Under the dual effects of the supply - tightening expectation and the peak - demand season, the spot price of lithium carbonate is expected to have room for an upward movement, and the price center may continue to move up in the short term. The trading sentiment factor of lithium carbonate on this day was 2.31, the upstream shipping sentiment factor was 2.67, and the downstream purchasing sentiment factor was 2.05. The downstream purchasing sentiment factor increased compared with the previous working day, and the upstream shipping sentiment factor remained relatively stable [6]. - **Downstream Consumption Situation (August 13)**: According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, from August 1 - 10, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market were 262,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 6% and a month - on - month increase of 6%. The retail penetration rate of the national new energy market was 57.9%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 6.717 million units, a year - on - year increase of 28%. From August 1 - 10, the wholesale sales of new energy vehicles by national passenger car manufacturers were 229,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 15% and a month - on - month decrease of 2%. The wholesale penetration rate of new energy manufacturers was 56.8%. The cumulative wholesale sales this year were 7.862 million units, a year - on - year increase of 35% [6]. - **Industry News** - August 15: Ningde Times' Jianxiawo Mine, one of the largest lithium mica mines in Yichun, announced a shutdown due to the expiration of the mining license, which will directly affect the change in lithium carbonate prices. Local mines in Yichun mainly mine ceramic soil and tantalum - niobium ore, but the new mining law revision tends to determine the ore type based on the actual economic behavior. There are a total of eight mines in the same situation, and local authorities require them to re - apply before September 30 this year [8]. - August 13: An "anti - involution" storm is sweeping through the entire lithium - battery industry chain. On August 12, the Lithium Industry Branch of the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association issued an initiative for the healthy development of the lithium industry, calling on the entire industry chain to jointly resist vicious competition and promote the high - quality development of the lithium industry. The initiative includes strengthening upstream - downstream collaboration, maintaining industrial safety, adhering to the principle of fair market competition, and actively assessing market trends to reasonably plan new production capacities [8]. - July 23: On July 22, Yang Hongxin, the chairman of Hive Energy, revealed that Hive Energy is fully promoting the R & D and mass - production process of solid - state batteries. It plans to trial - produce the first - generation 140Ah semi - solid batteries on its 2.3GWh semi - solid mass - production line in the fourth quarter of 2025. These batteries will be used exclusively for the next - generation models of BMW MINI and are expected to be supplied on a large scale starting in 2027 [9]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides data charts including the main contract and basis of lithium carbonate futures, lithium concentrate prices, hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte prices, ternary precursor prices, ternary material prices, lithium iron phosphate prices, lithium carbonate operating rate, lithium carbonate inventory, and cell selling prices, with data sources including iFinD, SMM, Shanghai Steel Union, and the R & D department of Tonghui Futures [10][13][15][17][18][21][22][24].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For pure benzene, the supply shows a slight increase with the overall supply rising due to the increase in开工率. The demand is also increasing, but the actual demand growth is slow due to low profits. There is a slight decline in port inventory this week, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve in August - September, but the improvement space is limited considering high hidden inventory and insufficient terminal demand [5]. - For styrene, the supply pressure remains high with new capacity coming online, but the demand from EPS and PS sectors has increased, and there is a de - stocking trend in inventory. The supply - demand surplus is expected to ease marginally in August - September, and attention should be paid to the implementation of new capacity and exports [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamental Information - Price: On August 18, the styrene main contract closed down 0.14% at 7,230 yuan/ton with a basis of 40 (+0 yuan/ton); the pure benzene main contract closed down 0.05% at 6,186 yuan/ton [4]. - Cost: On August 18, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 62.8 (-1.2 dollars/barrel), the WTI crude oil main contract closed at 65.9 (-1.0 dollars/barrel), and the spot price of East China pure benzene was 6,095 yuan/ton (-5 yuan/ton) [4]. - Inventory: Styrene sample factory inventory was 20.9 tons (-0.3 tons), a 1.3% de - stocking; Jiangsu port inventory was 14.9 tons (-1.0 tons), a 6.42% de - stocking; pure benzene port inventory was 14.6 tons (-1.7 tons), a 10.43% de - stocking [4]. - Supply: A new styrene plant in Shandong was put into operation, and the overall supply remained stable. The weekly styrene output was 36.9 tons (+1.0 tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate was 78.2% (+0.5%) [4]. - Demand: The capacity utilization rates of downstream 3S varied. EPS capacity utilization rate was 58.1% (+14.4%), ABS was 71.1% (+0%), and PS was 56.7% (+1.7%) [4]. (2) Views - Pure benzene: The supply is increasing, the demand is also rising but the actual increase is slow. There is a slight de - stocking in ports this week. The supply - demand pattern shows signs of improvement in August - September, but the improvement space is limited [5]. - Styrene: The supply pressure is high, the demand has increased in some sectors, and there is a de - stocking trend. The supply - demand surplus is expected to ease marginally in August - September [6]. 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring (1) Styrene & Pure Benzene Prices - Styrene futures main contract price changed from 7,238.0 to 7,240.0, a 0.03% increase; spot price changed from 7,656.0 to 7,596.0, a 0.78% decrease; basis changed from 67.0 to 40.0, a 40.30% decrease [8]. - Pure benzene futures main contract price changed from 6,179.0 to 6,189.0, a 0.16% increase; East China price changed from 6,105.0 to 6,100.0, a 0.08% decrease; South Korea FOB price changed from 732.5 to 733.5, a 0.14% increase; US FOB price changed from 799.5 to 796.5, a 0.38% decrease; China CFR price remained unchanged [8]. (2) Styrene & Pure Benzene Output and Inventory - Styrene output in China increased from 35.9 to 36.9 tons, a 2.76% increase; pure benzene output decreased from 44.6 to 44.5 tons, a 0.18% decrease [9]. - Styrene port inventory in Jiangsu decreased from 15.9 to 14.9 tons, a 6.42% decrease; domestic factory inventory decreased from 21.1 to 20.9 tons, a 1.29% decrease; pure benzene port inventory decreased from 16.3 to 14.6 tons, a 10.43% decrease [9]. (3) Capacity Utilization Rates - For pure benzene downstream, styrene capacity utilization rate increased from 77.7 to 78.2, a 0.45% increase; caprolactam increased from 88.4 to 93.7, a 5.31% increase; phenol decreased from 77.1 to 77.0, a 0.07% decrease; aniline decreased from 73.5 to 71.6, a 1.89% decrease [10]. - For styrene downstream, EPS capacity utilization rate increased from 43.7 to 58.1, a 14.41% increase; ABS remained at 71.1, a 0.00% change; PS increased from 55.0 to 56.7, a 1.70% increase [10]. 3. Industry News - China's shale cracking raw material supply is affected by trade and capacity, pushing up naphtha costs, and China is expected to increase naphtha imports to a record 1,600 - 1,700 tons in 2025 [11]. - The global diesel shortage supports refinery profits, which has a structural impact on the crude oil and chemical chains [11]. - India is accelerating petrochemical expansion to counter China's dominant position in the global petrochemical market [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term crude oil prices may continue the oscillating pattern, with upward pressure but strong support below. Geopolitical factors limit the decline, while demand - side differentiation restrains the upward momentum. The depletion of domestic warehouse receipts supports the relative strength of SC, and the overall price will maintain an interval oscillation, waiting for the results of the negotiation or OPEC+ policy signals [4]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes**: On August 12, 2025, the domestic SC crude oil main contract rose 1.19% to 495.2 yuan/barrel, while WTI and Brent fell 1.44% and 0.9% respectively. SC - Brent and SC - WTI spreads widened by 1.32 and 1.64 dollars/barrel respectively, and the Brent - WTI spread also slightly widened to 3.03 dollars/barrel. The SC near - month - to - third - consecutive - month spread narrowed by 1.6 yuan/barrel. Market sentiment was cautious, and the intraday amplitude of WTI shrank by 1.2 dollars/barrel [2]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain**: - **Supply**: OPEC's monthly report indicates that the US tight oil production may decline by 100,000 barrels per day next year, strengthening the long - term supply tightening expectation. However, there is still short - term supply increase pressure, such as Iraq's exploration of new oil export routes [3]. - **Demand**: China's net oil imports increased by 490,000 barrels per day month - on - month, showing marginal demand recovery. India's imports increased by 50,000 barrels per day, but consumption in the first seven months decreased by 0.5% year - on - year. The US gasoline peak season is approaching the end, and there is no significant gap in the current supply and demand of refined oil in China [3]. - **Inventory**: The warehouse receipts of medium - sulfur crude oil decreased by 482,000 barrels to 4.767 million barrels, and the warehouse receipts of low - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 5,000 tons to 21,100 tons [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: The prices of SC, WTI, and Brent futures had different trends on August 12, 2025. Spot prices of various types of crude oil also changed, and spreads such as SC - Brent, SC - WTI, and Brent - WTI widened. The US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 0.71%, and the Cushing inventory increased by 2.01%. The US refinery weekly operating rate increased by 1.57% [6]. - **Fuel Oil**: Futures prices of FU, LU, and NYMEX fuel oil changed on August 12, 2025. Spot prices of various types of fuel oil also showed different trends, and spreads such as the Singapore high - low sulfur spread and the China high - low sulfur spread changed [7]. 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretations - **Supply**: Iraq is studying the possibility of exporting oil through Lebanon's Tripoli port. OPEC's monthly report shows that India's net oil product imports increased by 50,000 barrels per day to 4.86 million barrels per day, China's increased by 490,000 barrels per day to 12.52 million barrels per day, and the US increased by 350,000 barrels per day to - 2.23 million barrels per day. It is expected that the US tight oil production will decline by 100,000 barrels per day next year [8][9]. - **Demand**: OPEC's monthly report expects the oil outlook to be tighter next year due to accelerated demand growth. The global crude oil demand growth rate forecast for 2025 is maintained at 1.29 million barrels per day, and that for 2026 is adjusted from 1.28 million to 1.38 million barrels per day. India's oil consumption decreased by 0.5% year - on - year in the first seven months of 2025 [10]. - **Inventory**: The medium - sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts decreased by 482,000 barrels to 4.767 million barrels, the fuel oil futures warehouse receipts remained flat, and the low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts decreased by 5,000 tons to 21,050 tons [11]. - **Market Information**: As of 2:30 on August 13, the closing prices of Shanghai gold, Shanghai silver, and SC crude oil main contracts changed. On August 12, the domestic refined oil price was not adjusted. The market is waiting for the US - Russia negotiation, and the crude oil price is in a short - term oscillating state [11][12]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including WTI and Brent first - line contract prices and spreads, SC and WTI spreads, US crude oil weekly production, OPEC crude oil production, etc., with data sources such as WIND, EIA, PAJ, and iFinD [13][15][17] etc.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **Pure Benzene**: Supply increases slightly due to new oil - benzene device production, while hydro - benzene开工率 drops. Demand from phenol rises but is partly offset by the decline in adipic acid. Overall demand is flat. Inventory decreases at East China ports due to typhoon - affected arrivals. 8 - 9月 may see slight inventory reduction, but improvement is limited due to high hidden inventory and weak consumption [5]. - **Styrene**: Supply is sufficient with new device production and resumed operations. Demand is weak, with EPS开工率 dropping significantly and PS/ABS rising slightly. Port inventory doesn't increase but remains high. Mid - term supply pressure persists with new capacity planned. The strong pure benzene price provides some support, and the macro - environment helps sentiment, but fundamental positives are limited [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Daily Market Summary - **Fundamentals** - **Price**: On August 12, styrene futures rose 0.99% to 7322 yuan/ton with a basis of 28 (- 27 yuan/ton), and pure benzene futures rose 0.32% to 6250 yuan/ton [4]. - **Cost**: On August 12, Brent crude closed at 64.0 (+0.1 dollar/barrel), WTI at 66.6 (+0.0 dollar/barrel), and East China pure benzene spot was 6180 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton) [4]. - **Inventory**: Styrene factory inventory was 21.1 (-0.6) million tons, a 2.71% decrease; Jiangsu port inventory was 14.9 (-1.0) million tons, a 6.42% decrease. Pure benzene port inventory was 14.6 (-1.7) million tons, a 10.43% decrease [4]. - **Supply**: A new styrene device in Shandong was put into operation. Weekly styrene output was 35.9 (-0.2) million tons, and capacity utilization was 77.7% (-1.2%) [4]. - **Demand**: Among styrene's downstream 3S, EPS capacity utilization dropped 10.6% to 43.7%, ABS rose 5.2% to 71.1%, and PS rose 1.7% to 55.0% [4]. 3.2. Industry Chain Data Monitoring - **Price**: Styrene futures and spot prices rose slightly on August 12 compared to August 11, while the basis decreased. Pure benzene futures, East China spot, and some international prices also changed, with different price differences showing various trends [8]. - **Output and Inventory**: From August 1 to August 8, styrene output decreased by 0.63% to 35.9 million tons, and pure benzene output increased by 2.36% to 44.6 million tons. Styrene and pure benzene inventories at ports and factories all decreased [9]. - **Capacity Utilization**: From August 1 to August 8, the capacity utilization of styrene and some pure - benzene downstream products changed. EPS capacity utilization dropped significantly, while ABS and PS increased [10]. 3.3. Industry News - China's shale cracking raw material supply issues may push up naphtha costs, with an expected record - high naphtha import of 16 - 17 million tons in 2025 [11]. - Global diesel shortage supports refinery profits, affecting the crude oil and chemical chains [11]. - India plans to accelerate petrochemical expansion to counter China's dominance [11]. 3.4. Industry Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple charts showing the historical data of pure benzene and styrene prices, price differences, inventory, and capacity utilization [16][19][21]

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Ethylene glycol may continue to trade in a narrow range in the short term, constrained by high inventory and coal chemical restarts above, and supported by cost margins below. The market expects the mid - term supply - demand contradiction to ease, but the rebound of near - term contracts is limited. It is recommended to focus on the impact of oil and coal price fluctuations on cost logic [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of the ethylene glycol futures main contract rose by 35 yuan/ton to 4457 yuan/ton, and the spot price in East China also rose by 35 yuan/ton to 4490 yuan/ton. The basis shrank by 35 yuan/ton to 3 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread widened slightly from - 45 yuan/ton to - 33 yuan/ton, and the far - month structure remained at a discount [1] - **Position and Volume**: The position of the main contract decreased by 5762 lots to 199,600 lots, while the trading volume increased by 13,300 lots to 94,000 lots, indicating increased short - term capital games and some short - sellers closing their positions [1] - **Supply**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate increased by 0.98 percentage points to 63.28%, with the coal - based operating rate rising by 2.53 percentage points to 58.98%, and the oil - based operating rate remaining at a high of 66.15%. All process routes are in losses, but no large - scale production cuts have occurred, resulting in continuous short - term supply pressure [1] - **Demand**: The load of polyester factories remained stable at 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 63.43% without change. Weak terminal orders led to mainly rigid demand procurement of polyester raw materials, and the demand side lacked upward drivers [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased by 58,500 tons to 485,700 tons in a single week, and the inventory in Zhangjiagang soared by 40.6% to 180,000 tons. The arrival volume decreased by 67,000 tons to 101,700 tons, indicating faster unloading at ports but lower shipping efficiency and accumulating explicit inventory pressure [2] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The main contract price of MEG futures rose from 4422 yuan/ton to 4457 yuan/ton, a 0.79% increase. The spot price in the East China market rose from 4455 yuan/ton to 4490 yuan/ton, also a 0.79% increase. The basis decreased from 38 yuan/ton to 3 yuan/ton, a 92.11% decline [4] - **Spreads**: The 1 - 5 spread of MEG widened from - 45 yuan/ton to - 33 yuan/ton, a 26.67% increase; the 5 - 9 spread decreased from 83 yuan/ton to 76 yuan/ton, an 8.43% decrease; the 9 - 1 spread decreased from - 38 yuan/ton to - 43 yuan/ton, a 13.16% decrease [4] - **Profits**: The coal - based profit remained at - 314 yuan/ton, with no change [4] - **Operating Rates**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate increased by 1.0 percentage points to 63.3%, the coal - based operating rate increased by 2.5 percentage points to 59.0%, and the oil - based operating rate remained unchanged at 66.2%. The load of polyester factories and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged [4] - **Inventory and Arrivals**: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased by 59,000 tons to 486,000 tons, a 13.69% increase; the inventory in Zhangjiagang increased by 52,000 tons to 180,000 tons, a 40.62% increase; the arrival volume decreased by 67,000 tons to 101,700 tons, a 39.72% decrease [4] 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretations - **Market Quotes**: On August 11, the negotiation price in the East China US dollar market moved up in the morning and remained stable in the afternoon, with no reported transactions. The spot price in the Shaanxi ethylene glycol market remained stable at around 4000 yuan/ton. The price in the South China market increased, but the trading was light. Affected by the US - Russia meeting and weekend polyester sales, the futures market adjusted upwards, and the current negotiation price in East China was around 4485 yuan/ton [5] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides charts on the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, ethylene glycol inventory at East China main ports, and total ethylene glycol industry inventory [6][8][10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The current crude oil market shows a weak and volatile pattern. Supply - side factors indicate that the incident at Russian refineries is only a short - term disturbance, while South American production increases and the supply resilience of sanctioned countries strengthen the expectation of a loose supply. Demand - side factors are suppressed by the weakening of China's refining demand, the peak of global seasonal demand, and the slowdown of bio - fuel substitution. Without unexpected production cuts, oil prices are expected to remain in a low - level volatile state [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes**: On August 11, the SC main contract slightly declined by 0.08% to 489.4 yuan/barrel, while WTI and Brent rebounded by 1.03% and 0.59% respectively. The premium of domestic futures relative to foreign markets narrowed, with the SC - Brent spread narrowing from 1.87 to 1.43 dollars/barrel (a 23.53% decline) and the SC - WTI spread dropping from 4.84 to 4.14 dollars/barrel (a 14.46% decline). The SC near - month contract strengthened, and the SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread widened to 9.8 yuan/barrel (a 13.95% increase) [2]. - **Supply - side Analysis**: The attack on Russia's Saratov refinery may lead to a local supply contraction, but strong South American production and the supply resilience of sanctioned countries (such as Iran and Venezuela) weaken the geopolitical premium, and medium - term supply pressure still exists [3]. - **Demand - side Analysis**: In early August, China's spot orders for gasoline and diesel decreased by 22.87% month - on - month, and transaction prices declined. UBS expects global oil demand to peak in August and then decline, and the delay of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy reduces the elasticity of diesel substitution demand in the next half - year [4]. - **Inventory - side Analysis**: UBS warns that future inventories may increase, and combined with the recent oil price correction and the spot discount structure, it shows that the market's expectation of inventory accumulation is taking shape. The decline in China's refinery procurement intention further intensifies inventory pressure [5]. - **Price Trend Judgment**: The current crude oil market is in a weak and volatile pattern. Without unexpected production cuts by OPEC+ to hedge, oil prices are expected to remain in a low - level volatile state [6]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: On August 11, compared with August 8, SC futures price slightly decreased, WTI and Brent futures prices increased, and most spot prices changed slightly. Some spreads narrowed, and the SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread widened. The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory decreased, while the Cushing inventory increased. The U.S. refinery weekly operating rate and crude oil processing volume increased [8]. - **Fuel Oil**: On August 11, compared with August 8, the prices of some fuel oil futures and spot products changed. Some spreads widened, and some Platts prices decreased [9]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Supply**: UBS expects oil prices to fall below previous expectations due to strong South American oil production, the supply resilience of sanctioned countries, and the expectation of future inventory increases. UBS also expects OPEC+ to suspend its production adjustment unless there is a larger and continuous unexpected supply disruption [10]. - **Demand**: The attack on Russia's Saratov refinery may affect supply. Global oil demand is expected to peak in August and then decline. Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy is delayed, and China's gasoline and diesel orders decreased in early August, indicating weakening demand [11]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple charts related to the crude oil and fuel oil industries, including price, production, inventory, and operating rate data, with data sources such as WIND, EIA, and iFinD [12][14][16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price is expected to maintain high - level volatility, driven by the strengthening expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September and geopolitical risk premiums. The tight - balance pattern of supply remains unchanged, domestic demand has resilience but high prices suppress restocking flexibility, and overseas demand is weak. The probability of a September interest rate cut indicated by CME interest rate futures has risen to 90%, and the weakening dollar provides support, but the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical risk may cause emotional fluctuations [6]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **主力合约与基差**: On August 11, the SHFE copper main contract closed at 79,020 yuan/ton, up 580 yuan/ton or 0.74% from August 8. The spot premium strengthened, with the premium of premium copper rising from 160 yuan/ton on August 8 to 230 yuan/ton, and the premium of flat - water copper also expanding to 110 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 month spread narrowed to - 69.55 dollars/ton but remained in a deep contango range [1]. - **持仓与成交**: The LME copper open interest increased by 3,820 lots to 267,065 lots on August 8, which may reflect some short - covering. The SHFE inventory on August 11 was 155,700 tons, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.1%, with two consecutive weeks of destocking. The LME inventory increased by 2,003 tons to 23,275 tons in a single week, increasing the overseas visible inventory pressure [2]. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **供给端**: Part of the El Teniente copper mine under Codelco was approved to restart, but four mining areas remained closed due to a collapse accident, and the annual output recovery needs observation. Chifeng Gold's Laos SND project disclosed 131.5 million tons of copper - gold ore resources, but it is in the resource exploration stage and is difficult to contribute to short - term supply. Chile's copper export value in July decreased slightly by 0.4% year - on - year. Combined with the transformation of Baiyin Nonferrous's copper concentrate warehouse, the raw material supply for domestic smelting has been enhanced, and refined copper supply tends to be loose [3]. - **需求端**: Copper processing enterprises in North China maintained stable operation, but the high price of 79,000 yuan/ton suppressed downstream purchasing flexibility. The spot market showed a game between "holders holding up prices" and "rigid - demand buyers pressing down prices", and there were no obvious peak - season characteristics in terminal consumption. Overseas, the continuous contango of LME indicated insufficient overseas demand [4]. - **库存端**: Global visible inventories showed differentiation: LME inventory increased by 2,003 tons, COMEX inventory slightly increased to 264,140 short tons, while SHFE inventory decreased for two consecutive weeks. The inventory in China's bonded area was not disclosed, but the closed import window suppressed the customs declaration volume, and the sustainability of short - term destocking was questionable [5]. Market Summary - Short - term judgment: The copper price is expected to maintain high - level volatility, mainly driven by the strengthening expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September and geopolitical risk premiums [6]. 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - The SMM 1 copper premium copper price on August 11 was 79,190 yuan/ton with a premium of 230 yuan/ton, up 550 yuan/ton and 70 yuan/ton respectively from August 8. The flat - water copper premium was 110 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton. The wet - process copper premium remained unchanged at 10 yuan/ton. The LME (0 - 3) spread was - 82 dollars/ton, down 12 dollars/ton. The SHFE price was 79,020 yuan/ton, up 580 yuan/ton. The LME price was 9,727 dollars/ton, down 42 dollars/ton. The LME inventory was 23,275 tons, up 2,003 tons. The SHFE inventory was 155,700 tons, down 150 tons. The COMEX inventory was 265,196 short tons, up 1,056 short tons [8]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - On August 11, Codelco was approved to partially restart the El Teniente copper mine, with four mining areas near the collapse accident site remaining closed [9]. - On August 10, the unaffected areas of Codelco's El Teniente copper mine were approved to resume operation by the Chilean labor department [9]. - On August 8, Chifeng Gold announced new copper - gold ore resources in its Laos SND project, but it is in the exploration stage [9]. - On August 8, Chile's copper export value in July decreased by 0.4% year - on - year [10]. - On August 7, Baiyin Nonferrous started the intelligent transformation project of its copper concentrate warehouse, which will improve storage and transportation efficiency [10]. 4. Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on China's PMI, US employment, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper price, the correlation between US interest rates and LME copper price, TC processing fees, CFTC copper positions, LME copper net long positions, Shanghai copper warehouse receipts, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [11][13][14]