Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The short - term lithium carbonate market may continue its weak and volatile trend. The current market contradiction lies in the rising supply expectations and the slowdown of demand realization rhythm. Although the futures price is suppressed by the mine - restart news, factors such as spot de - stocking, strengthening basis, and rigid procurement during the peak season still support the price. Further price drops may trigger industrial hedging buying. In the future, capital's attention to relevant mine - end topics such as Jianxiaowo may increase, and the two - way disturbance from the news is expected to intensify [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Futures Market Data Analysis** - **主力合约与基差**: On September 10, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract closed at 70,720 yuan/ton, a 2.99% decline from the previous day, showing a continuous decline trend. The basis strengthened to 2,280 yuan/ton [1]. - **持仓与成交**: The open interest decreased by 3% to 341,000 lots, declining for five consecutive trading days. The trading volume rebounded significantly by 27% to 751,000 lots [1]. - **产业链供需及库存变化分析** - **供给端**: Ningde Times' subsidiary planned to restart the Jianxiaowo lithium mine in November, which may release an increment of spodumene raw materials. However, short - term supply still depends on existing production capacity. The output of lithium carbonate from the spodumene route accounts for over 60%, while the proportion of the salt lake and mica routes has decreased. The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate remained at 66.41% without an increase, limiting the short - term supply growth rate [2]. - **需求端**: In August, new energy vehicle retail sales increased by 5% year - on - year and 9% month - on - month, with a penetration rate of 55.3%, showing the resilience of peak - season demand. However, there was a differentiation in the cathode material segment. The discount coefficient of ternary materials may be raised in September, and the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate decreased by 0.8% month - on - month, reflecting an increase in downstream cost sensitivity. The price of cobalt - acid lithium in the cell segment jumped by 5% to 6.25 yuan/Ah, but its impact on lithium carbonate demand was limited [2]. - **库存与仓单**: The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 0.74% to 140,000 tons, with two consecutive weeks of de - stocking. Coupled with the narrowing of the spot discount and active downstream bargain - hunting purchases, it indicated a marginal improvement in short - term supply and demand in the spot market [2]. - **价格走势判断**: The short - term lithium carbonate market may continue its weak and volatile trend. The market contradiction is concentrated between the rising supply expectations and the slowdown of demand realization rhythm. Although the futures price is suppressed by the restart news, spot de - stocking, strengthening basis, and peak - season rigid procurement still support the price. Further price drops may trigger industrial hedging buying. In the future, capital's attention to relevant mine - end topics may increase, and the two - way disturbance from the news is expected to intensify [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **价格变动**: The price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased by 2,180 yuan to 70,720 yuan/ton, a 2.99% decline. The basis increased by 680 yuan to 2,280 yuan/ton, a 42.50% increase. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 10,526 lots to 340,814 lots, a 3.00% decline. The trading volume of the main contract increased by 159,805 lots to 751,480 lots, a 27.01% increase. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1,500 yuan to 73,000 yuan/ton, a 2.01% decline. The price of power - type lithium iron phosphate decreased by 275 yuan to 33,620 yuan/ton, a 0.81% decline. The price of cobalt - acid lithium cells increased by 0.30 yuan to 6.25 yuan/Ah, a 5.04% increase [5]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **现货市场报价**: On September 10, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,414 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,175 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,150 yuan/ton. The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,150 yuan/ton. The futures price of lithium carbonate dropped sharply, and the downstream material factories' enthusiasm for price - setting significantly increased. In September, the market shows a situation of simultaneous growth in supply and demand, but the demand growth rate is faster, and it is expected that there will be a temporary supply shortage this month [6]. - **下游消费情况**: According to the preliminary statistics of the Passenger Car Association, from August 1 - 31, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market were 1.079 million, a 5% year - on - year increase and a 9% month - on - month increase. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market was 55.3%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 7.535 million, a 25% year - on - year increase [7]. - **行业新闻**: On September 9, Ningde Times' subsidiary held a meeting to discuss the restart of the Jianxiaowo lithium mine, aiming to restart production in November, but whether the goal can be achieved is uncertain. The settlement discount of ternary cathode materials is expected to be raised in September. The demand for ternary precursors is expected to continue to rise in September [8][9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to weak demand and inventory pressure, ethylene glycol is likely to continue its downward trend. The price center may further test the support level of the next range, and if port destocking continues to face obstacles and demand does not improve, the downward pressure may increase [1][2] - Supply has a slight decline, but demand remains sluggish, and inventory pressure is increasing, especially the rapid accumulation of port inventory, which may suppress prices. Although the strengthening basis shows that the spot is relatively resistant to decline, the weakness of the futures main contract and the shrinking trading volume indicate insufficient market confidence. Therefore, the price may maintain a low - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to changes in the cost side and demand recovery [22][23] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Price and Basis**: The price of the ethylene glycol main futures contract dropped slightly by 3 yuan to 4,319 yuan/ton, showing a four - day oscillating decline. The East China spot price also fell by 5 yuan to 4,435 yuan/ton, and the basis widened by 3 yuan to 121 yuan/ton, indicating a premium structure of the spot relative to the futures. The far - month spread fluctuated significantly, with the 1 - 5 spread widening to - 37 yuan and the 5 - 9 spread changing from premium to discount of 12 yuan, suggesting a weak market expectation for medium - term supply and demand [1] - **Position and Trading Volume**: The trading volume of the main contract decreased significantly by 77,639 lots to 106,908 lots (a decline of 42%), and the position decreased slightly by 190 lots, reflecting a decrease in market trading activity and an increase in the wait - and - see sentiment of funds [1] - **Supply Side**: The total ethylene glycol operating rate dropped slightly by 0.14 percentage points to 71.24%. Among them, the oil - based operating rate decreased by 0.24% month - on - month, while the coal - based and methanol - based plant operating rates remained stable. Despite the continuous loss of coal - based production at - 338 yuan/ton, the willingness to overhaul did not increase significantly, and the overall supply remained at a high level [1] - **Demand Side**: The load rate of polyester factories remained stable at 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained at a low level of 63.43% for many consecutive days. Terminal orders showed no improvement, and the rigid demand support of the polyester segment for ethylene glycol was limited [1] 2. Inventory and Related Analysis - **Inventory**: The inventory at the East China main port increased to 48.57 tons (a week - on - week increase of 13.7%), and the inventory in Zhangjiagang soared by 40.6% to 18 tons, reaching a recent high. Although the arrival volume decreased by 6.7 tons to 10.17 tons, the port inventory accumulation pressure remained unresolved [2] - **Cost - Supply and Demand Relationship**: The coal - based production continued to incur losses, but the plants did not significantly reduce production. The oil - based and methanol - based operating rates remained stable, and the overall supply was loose. The rigid demand support of polyester was insufficient, the terminal weaving operating rate remained low, and the inventory climbed to a new high this year, suppressing market confidence [2] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On September 10, the East China US dollar market negotiation remained stable, with near - month cargoes negotiated in the range of 520 - 523 US dollars/ton. The Shaanxi ethylene glycol market spot price remained stable, with the market average price around 3,990 yuan/ton for self - pick - up. The mainstream market was stable, and downstream players purchased as needed. The South China market spot was weakly stable, with the market negotiation atmosphere being cold, and the current price around 4,470 yuan/ton for delivery [5] - On September 10, market concerns about the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East supported the rise in oil prices. However, the commissioning of new ethylene glycol plants has been further implemented, and the spot basis in the market has narrowly shrunk. The current negotiation reference price in East China is around 4,437 yuan/ton [5] 4. Industry Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, ethylene glycol East China main port inventory statistics (weekly), and ethylene glycol industry total inventory [6][8][10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The pattern of long - short factors intertwined in the oil price may continue. Global economic slowdown concerns and OPEC+'s production - increasing tendency will limit the upside of oil prices, while unexpected geopolitical risk escalations or significant macro - economic policy changes may support and rebound oil prices [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - side - OPEC+ approved an increase of about 137,000 barrels per day in daily oil production starting from October 2025 and plans to continue this production - increasing rhythm until September 2026, accelerating the release of a total capacity of 1.65 million barrels per day [3] - US crude oil production increased by 72,000 barrels per day, the largest increase since February this year [20] Demand - side - In the second quarter of 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of global crude oil demand slowed down from 1.1% in the first quarter to 0.7%, mainly due to the continuous weakening of the global economy. The demand in the US, an important crude oil consumer, weakened significantly due to seasonal factors last week [3] Inventory - As of September 5, EIA data showed that US commercial crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased by 3.939 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 1.458 million barrels, and refined oil inventories increased by 4.715 million barrels [3][41] Global Crude Oil Balance Sheet - Supply - demand looseness dominates the fundamentals in the second half of the year. There has been unexpected inventory accumulation for two consecutive years, with a cumulative surplus of over 2.6 billion barrels of crude oil [55][56] Reasons for the Loose Supply - demand Situation - Non - OPEC supply has a rigid increase. From 2025 to 2026, non - OPEC production increased from 67.5 to 70.3 million barrels per day (+4.1%), while OPEC production only increased slightly by 0.7 million barrels per day. US shale oil and Brazilian deep - sea oil are the main sources of incremental production [60] - OPEC+ production cuts are ineffective. In September 2025, OPEC+ completely withdrew from the 2.2 million barrels per day production cut, but the increase in non - OPEC production completely offset its efforts [60] - OECD demand has stagnated. After August 2025, it has been continuously below 46.5 million barrels per day, and in January 2026, it suddenly dropped to 44.8 million barrels per day (-3.4% month - on - month) [60] - Non - OECD demand fluctuates violently. It reached a peak of 59.4 million barrels per day in December 2025, but suddenly dropped to 58.3 million barrels per day (-1.8%) in October 2026 [60] - There has been unexpected inventory accumulation for two consecutive years. In 2025, there was positive inventory every month except December, and in 2026, there was only a short - term inventory draw in December. The cumulative surplus of crude oil exceeded 2.6 billion barrels [60] - There is storage capacity pressure. On January 2026, the single - day inventory accumulation reached 2.6 million barrels, a peak in the cycle, implying that storage costs will erode the oil price margin [60] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Supply - High - sulfur fuel oil supply is mainly affected by geopolitical and sanction factors. In August, Russia's high - sulfur fuel oil shipments decreased, and Iran's high - sulfur exports also declined. China's low - sulfur fuel oil production in August was 1.06 million tons, a 4.6% increase from July, but the cumulative production from January to August was about 7.8 million tons, a decrease of about 19% compared with the same period last year [6] Demand - High - sulfur fuel oil demand lacks growth points as the power generation demand in the Middle East and other regions decreases seasonally after the end of the northern hemisphere summer, and the refinery feeding demand also declines with the weakening of gasoline consumption. Low - sulfur fuel oil demand shows some resilience, supported by the unexpected recovery of global shipping demand, but it also faces long - term competition from alternative energy sources [7] Inventory - In the week of September 10, Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased by 871,000 barrels to a two - week low of 26.528 million barrels. In the week of September 8, Fujairah's fuel oil inventory rebounded strongly by 28% to 7.095 million barrels. In the week of September 5, the fuel oil inventory in the ARA region decreased by 4.4% to 1 million tons, but its inventory level is still higher than the five - year average [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Pure benzene prices are expected to continue their weak and volatile trend in the short term, with limited upside potential due to unresolved supply - demand contradictions, despite short - term cost support from crude oil. In the medium to long term, the trend depends on crude oil movements and import volume realization [2]. - Styrene prices may experience short - term rebounds but face significant pressure overall. With increasing supply, weak demand, high inventories, and potential weakening of cost support, styrene is likely to trade in a range, and there is a risk of downward pressure from inventory liquidation [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Daily Market Summary 3.1.1. Fundamentals - On September 10, the styrene main contract closed up 0.04% at 7065 yuan/ton, with a basis of 45 (+12 yuan/ton); the pure benzene main contract closed up 0.22% at 6019 yuan/ton [2]. - On September 10, Brent crude oil closed at $62.6 per barrel (+$0.4), and WTI crude oil closed at $66.4 per barrel (+$0.4). The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5910 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton) [2]. - Styrene inventory was 19.7 million tons (+1.8 million tons), a 9.8% increase from the previous period, showing a large inventory build - up. Pure benzene port inventory was 14.9 million tons (+1.1 million tons), an 8.0% increase [2]. - In September, styrene plants will undergo maintenance, and supply is expected to decrease. Currently, the weekly styrene output is 37.6 million tons (+0.8 million tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate is 79.7% (+1.7%) [2]. - The downstream 3S开工率 (capacity utilization rates) varied. EPS capacity utilization was 52.5% (-5.8%), ABS was 69.0% (-1.8%), and PS was 61.0% (+1.1%) [2]. 3.1.2. Views - Pure benzene: In the short term, it will maintain a weak and volatile trend. Although there is short - term cost support from crude oil, demand is weak, and supply pressure in the future, especially from imports in October, cannot be ignored. In the medium to long term, it depends on crude oil trends and import volume realization [2]. - Styrene: Short - term price rebounds are limited. Supply is expected to increase, demand is weak, and cost support may weaken. It will mainly trade in a range, and there is a risk of downward pressure from inventory liquidation [3]. 3.2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring 3.2.1. Styrene and Pure Benzene Prices - On September 10, the styrene futures main contract increased 0.04% to 7065 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged at 7394 yuan/ton. The basis increased 36.36% to 45 yuan/ton [5]. - The pure benzene futures main contract increased 0.22% to 6019 yuan/ton, and the East China spot price remained at 5910 yuan/ton. Other international prices also remained unchanged [5]. - The pure benzene internal - CFR spread decreased 1.29% to -372.0 yuan/ton, and the East China - Shandong spread remained unchanged at -40.0 yuan/ton [5]. - Brent crude oil increased 0.59% to $62.6 per barrel, WTI crude oil increased 0.56% to $66.4 per barrel, and naphtha remained at 7694 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2.2. Styrene and Pure Benzene Output and Inventory - From August 29 to September 5, Chinese styrene output increased 2.14% to 37.6 million tons, and pure benzene output increased 0.31% to 45.3 million tons [6]. - During the same period, styrene port inventory in Jiangsu increased 9.78% to 19.7 million tons, and domestic factory inventory increased 1.67% to 21.5 million tons. Pure benzene port inventory nationwide increased 7.97% to 14.9 million tons [6]. 3.2.3. Capacity Utilization Rates - From August 29 to September 5, the capacity utilization rate of styrene increased 1.67% to 79.7%, that of caprolactam increased 1.03% to 90.4%, that of phenol decreased 0.151% to 75.2%, and that of aniline increased 0.41% to 68.0% [7]. - Among styrene downstream products, EPS capacity utilization decreased 5.82% to 52.5%, ABS decreased 1.80% to 69.0%, and PS increased 1.10% to 61.0% [7]. 3.3. Industry News - The US imposed high tariffs on some Asian (especially South Korean) chemical products, leading to global petrochemical industry structure adjustments. South Korea reduced ethylene cracking capacity, and some European factories closed due to high energy costs [8]. - In the first half of 2025, China's refining and chemical industry's overall losses continued to intensify, with the total loss amount increasing about 8.3% compared to the same period last year. The refining and chemical sector alone lost more than 9 billion yuan, highlighting intense competition and profit compression [8]. - With the accelerated implementation of private refining and chemical integration projects, China's pure benzene production capacity has formed a pattern centered on East China, with coordinated development in South and Northeast China [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply reduction supports the price resilience of PTA, and its driving force depends on the terminal volume. The polyester industry chain presents a demand - driven repair, with PX - PTA prices likely to enter a bottom - oscillation stage. The inventory pressure of polyester staple fiber and some filament varieties still needs continuous terminal volume to digest, while POY has more price elasticity due to healthy inventory [2][7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary PTA & PX - On September 10, the PX main contract closed at 6,770.0 yuan/ton, up 0.65% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 149.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4,698.0 yuan/ton, up 0.43% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 88.0 yuan/ton. The Brent crude oil main contract closed at 66.53 dollars/barrel, and WTI at 62.77 dollars/barrel. The total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 702.0 million meters, with a 15 - day average transaction of 662.8 million meters [2] - On the supply side, there is a short - term tightening expectation for PX supply. The PX plant operating rate has decreased slightly, and the PTA load has dropped, which may force PX manufacturers to adjust the operating rate. For PTA, some large - scale plants have entered maintenance, and the overall industry load has dropped below 75%, which may support the PTA price [3] - On the demand side, the polyester demand still has resilience, but the risk of marginal weakening increases. The current polyester operating rate remains at a high level of 89%, but attention should be paid to the continuous accumulation of terminal grey fabric inventory and the fading of the pre - effect of European and American autumn and winter orders, which may suppress the subsequent replenishment momentum [4] - On the inventory side, the de - stocking intensity of PTA factories is a key variable. Although the absolute value of social inventory is still at the median level in the past three years, the available inventory days have decreased from 4.5 days to 3.8 days (a month - on - month decrease of 15.6%), indicating a marginal relief of inventory pressure. If the downstream stocking demand is released later, the PTA price center may move up [5] Polyester - On September 10, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,364.0 yuan/ton, up 0.19% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,465.0 yuan/ton, up 5.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 101.0 yuan/ton [6] - The current supply - demand pattern of the polyester industry chain is differentiated but generally stable. On the supply side, the prices of PX and PTA futures have declined, indicating loose supply or weakened cost support. On the demand side, the MA15 data of the China Light Textile City's trading volume has increased by 17% from September 1 to September 10, indicating a recovery in terminal weaving demand. On the inventory side, the inventory of polyester staple fiber is 6.97 days, far exceeding the five - year average of 4.96 days. Among filament varieties, the inventories of FDY (26.4 days) and DTY (29.7 days) are also higher than the historical averages, while the POY inventory of 17.4 days is lower than the historical center [6] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: The main contract price was 6,770 yuan/ton on September 10, up 0.65% from the previous day. The main contract trading volume increased by 4.12% [8] - PTA futures: The main contract price was 4,698 yuan/ton on September 10, up 0.43% from the previous day. The main contract trading volume increased by 32.76% [8] - Short - fiber futures: The main contract price was 6,364 yuan/ton on September 10, up 0.19% from the previous day. The main contract trading volume decreased by 13.13% [8] - Other prices: The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI, CFR Japan naphtha, ethylene glycol, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY remained unchanged on September 10 compared with the previous day [8] - Processing spreads: The processing spread of PTA decreased by 3.43 yuan/ton (3.57%) on September 10 compared with the previous day, while other processing spreads remained unchanged [9] - Light Textile City trading volume: The total trading volume on September 10 was 702 million meters, up 10.38% from the previous day. The trading volume of long - fiber fabrics was 558 million meters, and that of short - fiber fabrics was 145 million meters [9] - Industrial chain load rates: The load rates of PTA factories, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged on September 10 compared with the previous day [9] - Inventory days: The inventory days of polyester staple fiber, POY, FDY, and DTY increased on September 10 compared with previous data [9] 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretations Macro Dynamics - On September 9, the U.S. Senate panel will vote on the nomination of the Federal Reserve governor in Milan on Wednesday, and a full - scale vote will be held after approval. The New York Fed survey shows that the public expects the unemployment rate and unemployment risk to rise and expects the Fed to cut interest rates next week. Saudi Arabia has lowered the crude oil price for the Asian market. China's imports and exports in August increased by 3.5% year - on - year to 3.87 trillion yuan [10] Supply - Demand - Demand - On September 10, the total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 702.0 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 10.38%. The trading volume of long - fiber fabrics was 558.0 million meters, and that of short - fiber fabrics was 145.0 million meters [11] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including PX and PTA main futures and basis, PX and PTA spot prices, PX capacity utilization, PTA futures month - spreads, short - fiber futures month - spreads, industrial chain load rates, polyester staple fiber and filament production and sales, China Light Textile City trading volume moving average, and polyester product inventory days [12][14][16][18][20][21][24][25][27][29][30][31] 5. Appendix: Big Model Inference Process - Analyze the future price trends of PTA and PX from three dimensions: supply, demand, and inventory. On the supply side, the price increases of PX and PTA main contracts may indicate supply tightness, and the impact of crude oil price trends on PX cost needs to be considered. On the demand side, the trading volume data of the Light Textile City is crucial. High trading volume may indicate increased demand for PTA. On the inventory side, although the PTA factory inventory data is missing, the basis and price trends can be used to infer the inventory level. Finally, comprehensively analyze the three aspects to predict the future price trends of PTA and PX [38][39][40]

2025年9月10日，SHFE主力合约价格持平于79740元/吨，LME铜价微涨至 9916.5美元/吨，延续窄幅波动。现货市场基差全面走弱，升水铜升水缩窄 至100元/吨，平水铜升水降至20元/吨，湿法铜贴水扩大至-50元/吨，现货 出货压力增大。LME 0-3贴水则小幅收窄至-78.02美元/吨，但仍深贴水， 海外隐性库存压力未缓解。 持仓与成交： LME铜持仓减少1245手至288791手，SHFE库存环比下降0.14%至155050吨， 连续两周去库。日内沪铜交投呈现减仓上行，资金在冲高后获利离场，短 期多头情绪谨慎。 PPI数据推升降息预期，噤声期铜价更加数据敏感 一、日度市场总结 铜期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差： 铜市场短期维持高位波动，供给端进口放量压制现货升水，但炼厂原料长 单采购支撑价格底部；需求端电网投资与季节性开工形成弱支撑，光伏与 建筑需求仍偏弱；宏观面美国就业数据疲软加大降息预期，但地缘风险与 美指波动限制上行空间。而宏观层面，昨夜PPI数据下滑，继续推升9月降 息预期，噤声期内对数据的交易或将增加，但是上方的压制仍旧明显。 1/7 价格走势判断 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term crude oil prices may maintain a high - level oscillatory pattern within a range, but the upward resistance is increasing. Geopolitical disturbances provide bottom support for oil prices, but the seasonal weakening of the demand side may cause the market to enter an oscillatory consolidation phase [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - On September 10, the price of the SC crude oil main contract rose slightly to 486.2 yuan/barrel (+0.7%), with an intraday fluctuation range of 481.0 - 490.5 yuan/barrel. WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices remained flat at 62.77 dollars/barrel and 66.53 dollars/barrel respectively. The spreads between SC and Brent, WTI widened to 1.74 dollars/barrel (+41.46%) and 5.5 dollars/barrel (+10.22%) respectively, and the SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread dropped significantly to - 0.3 yuan/barrel (previous value: 4.0 yuan/barrel) [2]. 3.2 Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain Supply Side - Russia will increase its western port oil exports in September by 11% to 210 million barrels per day due to a refinery attack. The US White House plans to require large refineries to share the biofuel blending exemption quota of small refineries, which may weaken refinery's crude oil import demand if the policy is implemented. The OPEC+ online meeting evaluated market trends, but no specific production adjustment signals from oil - producing countries were seen [3]. Demand Side - US EIA data shows that on the week of September 5, refinery equipment utilization rose to 94.9% (expected 93.7%), but crude oil implied demand declined to 1920.3 million barrels per day (previous value: 1982 million barrels per day). Gasoline and distillate implied demand also decreased to 950.17 million barrels per day and 477.24 million barrels per day respectively. High refinery operating rates and weak terminal demand may indicate an increased risk of refined oil inventory accumulation [3]. Inventory Side - The total inventory of US crude oil and refined oil reached the largest increase since 2023. Commercial crude oil inventory increased by 393.9 million barrels (expected a decrease of 104 million barrels), refined oil inventory increased by 471.5 million barrels (expected an increase of 3.5 million barrels), and gasoline inventory increased by 145.8 million barrels (expected a decrease of 24.3 million barrels). China's crude oil futures warrants remained at a high level of 572.1 million barrels [4]. 3.3 Price Trend Judgment - Short - term crude oil prices may maintain a high - level oscillatory pattern within a range, but the upward resistance is increasing. Supply - side contradictions are prominent, demand resilience is insufficient, and structural contradictions are emerging. Geopolitical disturbances provide bottom support for oil prices, but the seasonal weakening of the demand side may cause the market to enter an oscillatory consolidation phase [5]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring Crude Oil - Futures prices: SC rose by 0.7% to 486.2 yuan/barrel, WTI rose by 0.65% to 63.18 dollars/barrel, and Brent rose by 1.61% to 67.60 dollars/barrel. - Spot prices: OPEC's basket price remained unchanged, while other spot prices showed various changes. - Spreads: SC - Brent spread decreased by 45.53%, SC - WTI spread increased by 2.00%, and Brent - WTI spread increased by 17.55%. - Other assets: The US dollar index, S&P 500, DAX index, and RMB exchange rate also had corresponding changes [7]. Fuel Oil - Futures prices: FU rose by 0.72% to 2786 yuan/ton, LU decreased by 0.06% to 3383 yuan/ton, and NYMEX fuel oil rose by 0.5%. - Spot prices: Most spot prices had slight changes, and some remained unchanged. - Paper - cargo prices: Some paper - cargo prices were not available. - Spreads: The Singapore high - low sulfur spread was not available, and the Chinese high - low sulfur spread decreased by 3.55% [8]. 3.5 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretations Supply - On September 10, Russia increased its September western port oil exports by 11% to 210 million barrels per day due to a refinery drone attack. On September 7, eight countries held an online meeting to assess the global market situation and future development trends [9]. Demand - The US Energy Secretary expects strong global economic recovery and a significant increase in oil demand in the next few years. However, US EIA data shows a decline in the implied demand for distillate fuel oil, gasoline, and crude oil [10]. Inventory - On September 10, the warehouse futures warrants of low - sulfur fuel oil, medium - sulfur crude oil, and fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange remained unchanged, while the warehouse warrants of petroleum asphalt decreased by 300 tons, and the warehouse warrants of pulp increased by 38 tons [11]. Market Information - As of 2:30 closing, the main contracts of Shanghai gold, Shanghai silver, and SC crude oil had corresponding changes. The Trump administration appealed the court's ruling to block the removal of Fed Governor Cook. The US White House is reviewing a new rule that requires large refineries to bear the biofuel blending exemption quota of small refineries [12]. 3.6 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, US crude oil weekly production, US and Canadian oil rig numbers, US refinery weekly operating rates, etc., with data sources from WIND, EIA, PAJ, iFinD, etc. [13][15][20]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The copper market is expected to maintain high-level volatility in the next 1 - 2 weeks, and the core direction of fluctuation depends on the final decision of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on September 18th, the guidance of US inflation data, and the speed of domestic inventory depletion [3] Group 3: Summary of Each Section Daily Market Summary Market Data Changes - On September 9th, the price of the SHFE copper main contract rose slightly by 90 yuan to 79,740 yuan/ton, showing a narrow - range oscillation pattern. The spot premium continued to weaken, with the premium of premium copper dropping from 190 yuan/ton on September 8th to 125 yuan/ton, and that of flat - water copper narrowing from 60 yuan/ton to 40 yuan/ton. The LME copper 0 - 3 discount widened to 81.07 dollars/ton, highlighting the pressure of loose overseas spot supply [1] - On September 8th, the LME copper open interest increased by 1,928 lots to over 290,000 lots. However, with the high price of SHFE copper, domestic spot trading volume was suppressed, and downstream procurement remained cautious, lacking continuous short - term drivers [1] Supply, Demand, and Inventory Changes in the Industry Chain - Supply: The Grasberg mine in Indonesia suspended mining operations due to a sudden ore outburst accident, which may disturb market sentiment in the short term. China's imports of unforged copper in August decreased month - on - month to 425,000 tons, reflecting the slowdown of import demand in the off - season, but the release of smelter capacity still supported sufficient supply of electrolytic copper [2] - Demand: High copper prices suppressed the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory. The spot premium of electrolytic copper in North China continued to weaken. Orders in the power, construction, and consumer electronics sectors were seasonally weak. Coupled with the accumulation of high - price copper product inventory, terminal procurement was mostly for rigid demand, and the demand side lacked continuous stimulation [2] - Inventory: Global visible inventories were differentiated. On September 8th, LME copper inventory increased by 155 tons to 19,081 tons, reaching a new high in nearly a month; SHFE inventory slightly decreased by 550 tons to 155,000 tons, still at a high level this year. The overall inventory pressure was not relieved, and the spot de - stocking rhythm was slow [2] Market Summary - The Indonesian mine accident on the supply side may briefly boost market sentiment, but the actual impact is limited. On the demand side, high prices suppress restocking, and the weakening of the spot discount restricts the rebound space. The expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and the decline of the US dollar index on the macro - level provide support for copper prices, but market caution has increased before the release of CPI data [3] Industry Chain Price Monitoring - The price of SMM:1 copper on September 9th was 79,990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous day, with a change rate of - 0.01%. The premium of premium copper decreased by 65 yuan to 125 yuan/ton, with a change rate of - 34.21%. The premium of flat - water copper decreased by 20 yuan to 40 yuan/ton, with a change rate of - 33.33%. The premium of wet - process copper decreased by 10 yuan to - 40 yuan/ton, with a change rate of - 33.33%. The LME (0 - 3) discount widened [5] - The SHFE copper price on September 9th was 79,740 yuan/ton, a rise of 90 yuan from the previous day, with a change rate of 0.11%. The LME copper price rose slightly. The LME copper inventory increased by 155 tons to 19,081 tons, with a change rate of 0.82%. The SHFE copper inventory decreased by 550 tons to 155,275 tons, with a change rate of - 0.35% [5] Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes various data charts such as China PMI, US employment situation, the correlation between US interest rates and LME copper prices, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper prices, TC processing fees, CFTC copper open interest, LME copper net long open interest analysis, SHFE copper warrant volume, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [6][10][12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the lithium carbonate futures price may continue its weak and volatile trend. The previous price increase in the market has already factored in all current positive factors. The market is currently strongly influenced by the expected resumption of production at the Jiangxi supply - end. Over the next 1 - 2 weeks, the lithium carbonate market may continue to trade around this event, and key price levels and changes in positions need to be closely monitored [3]. - In September, the market shows a situation where both supply and demand are growing, but the demand growth rate is faster, and it is expected that there will be a temporary supply shortage during the month [6]. - In the next one to two weeks, the market may maintain a low - level shock. Although the supply is tightening, the demand growth rate may slow down. There is a wait - and - see sentiment in the market, and the lack of clear upward momentum in the short term is limited by the declining inventory and strengthening basis [31]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Day - to - day Market Summary - On September 9, the main contract of lithium carbonate closed at 72,900 yuan/ton, down 2.54% from the previous trading day, continuing the weak and volatile pattern. The basis strengthened significantly by 1,900 yuan to 1,600 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the main contract decreased sharply by 24.38% to 592,000 lots, and the open interest shrank by 3.51% to 351,000 lots [1]. 3.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply side**: The domestic lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate remained stable at 66.41%, but the proportion of lithium carbonate produced from spodumene raw materials exceeded 60%, while the proportion of lithium mica decreased to 15%, possibly affected by the suspension of production at Ningde Times' Yichun mining area and the expansion project of lithium extraction from salt lakes [2]. - **Demand side**: The demand for new energy vehicles has moderately recovered. In August, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 55.3%. The demand for cobalt - acid lithium and cobalt tetroxide has increased. However, ternary material manufacturers have limited acceptance of high - priced raw materials, and the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate remained at 33,895 yuan/ton. The procurement of cathode materials was relatively cautious [2]. - **Inventory and warehouse receipts**: Lithium carbonate inventory has declined for two consecutive weeks to 140,100 tons. The reduction in warehouse receipts confirms the marginal improvement in supply - demand, but the slow pace of destocking indicates that the restocking intensity during the peak season is lower than expected [2]. 3.3 Price Trend Judgment - In the short term, the lithium carbonate futures price may continue its weak and volatile trend. The market has already priced in all current positive factors. The expected resumption of production at Jiangxi's supply end has a significant impact on the market. Over the next 1 - 2 weeks, the lithium carbonate market may continue to trade around this event, and key price levels and changes in positions need to be closely monitored [3]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On September 9, 2025, the main contract of lithium carbonate was 72,900 yuan/ton, down 1,900 yuan or 2.54% from the previous day. The basis was 1,600 yuan/ton, up 1,900 yuan or 633.33%. The open interest of the main contract was 351,340 lots, down 3.51%, and the trading volume was 591,675 lots, down 24.38%. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 74,500 yuan/ton [5]. 3.5 Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - **Spot market quotes**: On September 9, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 74,589 yuan/ton, up 94 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The market was in the peak demand season, and there was still rigid demand from downstream. However, with the upward adjustment of the futures price this week, downstream procurement activities slowed down slightly compared to last week. The supply side showed a structural differentiation [6]. - **Downstream consumption situation**: According to preliminary statistics from the Passenger Car Association, from August 1 - 31, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market were 1.079 million, a year - on - year increase of 5% and a month - on - month increase of 9%. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market was 55.3%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 7.535 million, a year - on - year increase of 25% [7]. - **Industry news**: - Since the official suspension of production at Ningde Times' Jiangxi Yichun Jianxiaowo mining area on August 10, the "butterfly effect" has spread throughout the entire industrial chain [8]. - On August 18, Lanxiao Technology won the bid for the adsorption system of the expansion and renovation project of the comprehensive utilization of old brine for lithium extraction from Lop Nur Salt Lake of SDIC Xinjiang Lithium Industry Co., Ltd., with a bid amount of 35.7712 million yuan [9]. - On August 15, Ningde Times' Jianxiaowo mining area announced a suspension of production due to the expiration of the mining license, which would directly affect the price of lithium carbonate. Eight local mines in Yichun needed to re - apply by September 30 [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pure benzene market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term, with its medium - and long - term trend depending on the continuous rebound of crude oil and the fulfillment of imports. The benzene - ethylene market will remain range - bound, and attention should be paid to the downward risk after inventory realization [2][3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary Fundamental Information - On September 9, the main contract of benzene - ethylene closed down 0.21% at 7062 yuan/ton, with a basis of 33 (-5 yuan/ton); the main contract of pure benzene closed down 0.12% at 6006 yuan/ton. The closing price of Brent crude oil was 62.3 US dollars/barrel (+0.4 US dollars/barrel), and the main contract of WTI crude oil closed at 66.0 US dollars/barrel (+0.5/barrel). The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5910 yuan/ton (-5 yuan/ton) [2] - The inventory of benzene - ethylene was 19.7 million tons (+1.8 million tons), a month - on - month increase of 9.8%. The inventory of pure benzene at ports was 14.9 million tons (+1.1 million tons), a month - on - month increase of 8.0% [2] - In September, there will be maintenance of benzene - ethylene plants, and the supply is expected to decrease. Currently, the weekly output of benzene - ethylene is 37.6 million tons (+0.8 million tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate is 79.7% (+1.7%) [2] - The changes in the operating rates of downstream 3S varied. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of EPS was 52.5% (-5.8%), the capacity utilization rate of ABS was 69.0% (-1.8%), and the capacity utilization rate of PS was 61.0% (+1.1%) [2] Views - Pure benzene: Recently, the pure benzene market has been in a weak and volatile state due to the game between cost and supply - demand. Although the medium - and long - term supply of international crude oil is expected to be loose, short - term supply is restricted. The increase in naphtha prices supports the cost of pure benzene. However, the demand is lackluster, and the subsequent supply pressure cannot be ignored. Overall, the supply - demand contradiction remains unresolved, and the rebound is limited [2] - Benzene - ethylene: After a seven - day decline, the benzene - ethylene market rebounded due to short - covering and plant maintenance. But the overall pressure is still significant. The supply is expected to increase in the future, the demand is weak, and the cost support may be weakened in the medium term. The rebound space is limited, and it maintains a range - bound trend [3] 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring - Benzene - ethylene and pure benzene prices: On September 9, the main futures contract of benzene - ethylene decreased by 0.21% compared to the previous day, and the spot price decreased by 0.08%. The main futures contract of pure benzene decreased by 0.12%, and the East China spot price decreased by 0.08%. The prices of pure benzene in South Korea FOB, the United States FOB, and China CFR remained unchanged. The price of Brent crude oil increased by 0.63%, and the price of WTI crude oil increased by 0.79%. The price of naphtha remained unchanged [5] - Benzene - ethylene and pure benzene production and inventory: From August 29 to September 5, the production of benzene - ethylene in China increased by 2.14%, and the production of pure benzene increased by 0.31%. The port inventory of benzene - ethylene in Jiangsu increased by 9.78%, the factory inventory of benzene - ethylene in China increased by 1.67%, and the port inventory of pure benzene in China increased by 7.97% [6] - Operating rate: From August 29 to September 5, the capacity utilization rate of benzene - ethylene increased by 1.67%, the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam increased by 1.03%, the capacity utilization rate of phenol decreased by 0.151%, and the capacity utilization rate of aniline increased by 0.41%. Among the downstream of benzene - ethylene, the capacity utilization rate of EPS decreased by 5.82%, the capacity utilization rate of ABS decreased by 1.80%, and the capacity utilization rate of PS increased by 1.10% [7] 3. Industry News - The United States imposed high tariffs on some Asian chemical products, leading to adjustments in the global petrochemical industry structure. South Korea reduced its ethylene cracking capacity, and some European factories closed due to high energy costs [8] - In the first half of 2025, the overall losses of China's refining and chemical industry continued to intensify, with the total loss amount increasing by about 8.3% compared to the same period last year, and the loss in the refining and chemical sector exceeding 9 billion yuan [8] - With the accelerated implementation of private refining and chemical integration projects, China's pure benzene production capacity has formed a pattern with East China as the core and South China and Northeast China developing in coordination [8] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including pure benzene price, benzene - ethylene price, benzene - ethylene - pure benzene price difference, SM imported pure benzene cost vs. domestic pure benzene cost, benzene - ethylene port inventory, benzene - ethylene factory inventory, pure benzene port inventory, ABS inventory, PS inventory, caprolactam weekly capacity utilization rate, phenol weekly capacity utilization rate, and aniline weekly capacity utilization rate [9][14][19]