缺乏有利因素推动，PX、PTA或继续维持偏弱振荡 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 1. PTA&PX 06月06日，PX 主力合约收6556.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨0.24%，基差为 79.0元/吨。PTA 主力合约收4652.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨0.17%，基差 为228.0元/吨。 成本端，06月06日，布油主力合约收盘66.65美元/桶。WTI收64.77美元/ 桶。需求端，06月06日，轻纺城成交总量为754.0万米，15 日平均成交为 808.93万米。 目前PX开工率国内78%，亚洲69.4%，但青岛丽东100万吨PX装置计划6月负 荷提升至90%左右，浙石化歧化装置重启提负，辽阳石化短停的70万吨产能 5月26日重启，GS40万吨产能6月中重启等，PX供应将在6月有大量回归，随 后在7月陆续再度进入多套检修时间。PTA有新装置即将投产，供应压力逐 步回归，终端需求边际走弱，PTA价格可能继续承压。 2. 聚酯 二、 ...

一、日度市场总结 乙二醇主力期货价格连续三日下跌，6月6日报4240元/吨，较前日跌12元/ 吨，成交量大幅萎缩34.6%至23.3万手，持仓微降0.1%。华东现货同步走弱 至4385元/吨，基差走阔12元至150元/吨，反映现货相对抗跌但期货情绪偏 空。跨期价差显示近月结构改善，1-5价差反弹60.9%至-9元/吨，但5-9和 9-1价差仍承压。成本端压力显著：油制利润维持亏损86.3美元/吨，煤制 利润连续五周稳定在-250元/吨深度亏损，甲醇制利润恶化至-1144元/吨历 史低位。 供给端开工率小幅回升：总开工率增0.5pct至54.4%，其中油制开工率增 1.35pct至56.4%，煤制开工率持平50.5%。需求端疲软：聚酯工厂负荷僵持 89.4%，江浙织机负荷63.4%无变化。港口库存压力加剧：华东主港库存增 3.7%至59.8万吨，创四周新高，到港量增至13.7万吨，而张家港库存因发 货改善小幅降5.2%至21.8万吨。 乙二醇预计延续低位震荡格局，价格上行空间有限但底部存在成本支撑。 成本端高压难解：原油及煤炭价格虽未大涨，但石脑油、乙烯制利润深度 亏损（油制-86美元/吨，煤制-250元/吨） ...

Group 1: Report's Core View - The short - term core contradiction in the market is the continuous excess pressure under the situation of increasing supply and stable demand. The lithium carbonate price lacks the momentum for continuous rebound, and attention should be paid to the downstream production resumption progress in June and the cost support strength of lithium ore prices [7] Group 2: Daily Market Summary - On June 6, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract closed at 60,440 yuan/ton, up 0.57% from the previous trading day. The futures rebounded and the spot price remained stable, causing the basis to converge [2] - The position of the main contract significantly shrank to 218,416 lots on June 6, a 5.69% decrease from the previous day. The trading volume slightly expanded to 256,782 lots, a 4.98% increase, but there was a lack of continuous position - increasing support [3] - The supply of lithium salts is expected to remain loose. The prices of spodumene and lepidolite concentrates remained flat, and the raw material cost support weakened. The operating rate of lithium salt plants is expected to increase in June, and the long - term supply pressure remains [4] - Downstream demand is structurally differentiated but overall weak. Although new energy vehicle sales are still resilient, power battery production has declined seasonally, and cathode material manufacturers are destocking, suppressing procurement demand [5] - Lithium carbonate inventory increased by 0.65% to 132,432 tons, continuing the inventory accumulation trend. The actual de - stocking power is insufficient due to the mismatch between supply and demand [6] Group 3: Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On June 6, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 60,440 yuan/ton, up 0.57% from the previous day; the basis was 960 yuan/ton, down 20% [9] - The position of the main contract was 218,416 lots, down 5.69%; the trading volume was 256,782 lots, up 4.98% [9] - The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 61,400 yuan/ton, up 0.16% from the previous day. The prices of spodumene concentrate, lepidolite concentrate, and some cathode materials remained flat [9] - The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate was 62.5%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous period. The inventory of lithium carbonate was 132,432 tons, up 0.65% [9] Group 4: Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - The price center of lithium carbonate spot transactions remained stable. In June, the supply of lithium carbonate is expected to increase while demand remains stable, and the excess pattern will continue [10] - In May, the retail sales of new energy vehicles reached 105.6 million, a 30% year - on - year increase, and the penetration rate reached 53.5%. The wholesale volume was 124 million, a 37% year - on - year increase [11]

liyingjie@thqh.com.cn OPEC增产利空出尽，乌克兰轰炸俄机场支撑油价反弹 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 原油市场日度总结（2025年5月30日） 1. 数据变化分析 价格表现： SC原油：5月30日报447.9元/桶，较前日下跌19.2元（-4.11%），日内呈现 单边下行趋势，最低触及453.0元/桶后继续下探。 WTI原油：小幅回落0.13美元至60.79美元/桶（-0.21%），日内波动区间收 窄（60.79-61.86美元）。 布伦特原油：下跌0.75美元至62.61美元/桶（-1.18%），盘中一度逼近 63.74美元后走弱。 价差变动： SC-Brent价差：由前日+1.59美元转为-0.36美元，大幅走弱1.95美元 （-122.64%），反映SC相对国际基准走弱。 SC-WTI价差：收窄2.57美元至1.46美元（-63.77%），SC溢价收缩。 Brent-WTI价差：收窄0.62美元至1.82美元（-25.41%），欧美价差持续压 缩。 ...

（1）基本面 价格：5 月 30 日苯乙烯主力合约收跌 1.19%，报 7140 元/吨，基差 585 元/吨（+21 元/吨）； 成本：5 月 30 日布油主力合约收盘 60.9 美元/桶（-0.9 美元/桶），WTI 原油主力合约收盘 63.4 美元/桶（-0.9 美元/桶），华东纯苯现货报价 5835 元/吨（-25 元/吨）。 能源化工 通惠期货•研发产品系列 苯乙烯日报 2025 年 6 月 3 日 星期二 地缘政治影响原油大涨，但供需仍然偏弱 一、 日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 库存：苯乙烯样本工厂库存 17.1 万吨（-1.6 万吨），环比减少 8.44%， 江苏港口库存 7.5 万吨（+2.3 万吨），环比上升 43.2%，苯乙烯开始累库。 供应：苯乙烯检修装置将于 6 月中下旬逐渐回归，届时供应有增量预 期。目前，苯乙烯周产量环比回升 3.9%至 33.0 万吨（+1.3 万吨），工厂产能 利用率 72.0%（+2.7%）。 需求：下游 3S 开工率变化不一，其中 EPS 产能利用率 58.7%（+0.9%）， ABS 产能利用率 62.3%（+1.45%），PS 产能利用率 61.8%（+ ...

OPEC+或将延续产量政策，油价强势反弹 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 日度市场总结 数据变化分析（2025年5月28日） 原油价格： SC原油（中国）价格从458.3元/桶小幅回落至453.0元/桶（跌幅1.16%）， 盘中波动区间较前日扩大，显示市场分歧。 WTI和Brent价格则分别上涨0.79美元/桶（1.29%）和0.59美元/桶 （0.93%），Brent-WTI价差小幅收窄0.2美元至2.47美元/桶，反映大西洋 盆地供需平衡趋紧。价差方面，SC-Brent价差从-0.04美元/桶大幅走弱 至-1.33美元/桶，SC-WTI价差亦收窄1.49美元至1.14美元/桶，表明SC原油 相对国际油种贴水加深，或受区域库存压力影响。SC连续-连3价差从7.1 元/桶收窄至4.0元/桶（降幅43.66%），显示近月合约抛压增强，短期供需 预期偏弱。 供给端： 燃料油期货仓单维持稳定（28,950吨），中质含硫原油仓单持平于402.9万 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of pure benzene is gradually recovering, with expected simultaneous growth in supply and demand and an increasing trend in social inventory The current suspension of tariff imposition is favorable for terminal trade, but there is a need to be vigilant about potential reversals due to Trump's government appeal [3] - The overall supply of styrene is expected to increase, and the port inventory is expected to rise slightly on a low - level basis The overall supply - demand pattern is marginally weakening In June and mid - late June, styrene production is expected to increase significantly If the counter - tariffs stop, downstream demand will improve significantly, and it may fluctuate in the short term [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamental Analysis - **Price**: On May 28, the main styrene contract closed down 1.06% at 7068 yuan/ton, with a basis of 647 yuan/ton (- 86 yuan/ton) [2] - **Cost**: On May 28, the main Brent crude oil contract closed at 60.9 dollars/barrel (+ 0.6 dollars/barrel), the main WTI crude oil contract closed at 63.6 dollars/barrel (- 1.1 dollars/barrel), and the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5885 yuan/ton (+ 0 yuan/ton) [2] - **Inventory**: Styrene sample factory inventory was 18.6 tons (- 2.6 tons), a 12.3% month - on - month decrease; Jiangsu port inventory was 7.5 tons (+ 2.3 tons), a 43.2% month - on - month increase, indicating that styrene has started to accumulate inventory [2] - **Supply**: Styrene maintenance devices are expected to gradually resume in mid - late June, with an expected increase in supply Currently, affected by some device maintenance, the weekly styrene output decreased 2.8% to 31.7 tons (- 0.9 tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate was 69.3% (- 2.0%) [2] - **Demand**: The operating rates of downstream 3S varied Among them, the EPS capacity utilization rate was 59.5% (- 2.8%), the ABS capacity utilization rate was 60.9% (- 6.5%), and the PS capacity utilization rate was 59.7% (+ 2.6%), with a significant decline in the operating rate [2] (2) Viewpoints - **Pure Benzene**: Recently, with the restart of Zhejiang Petrochemical and the expected completion of maintenance and resumption of devices such as CNOOC Huizhou and Jinxi Petrochemical at the end of May, the supply of the pure benzene market is gradually recovering Meanwhile, the import volume of foreign pure benzene has increased, and some downstream enterprises also plan to increase their operating loads It is expected that the supply and demand of pure benzene will increase simultaneously, and the social inventory has an increasing trend The pure benzene port inventory has risen to 14.3 tons (month - on - month + 1.5 tons) [3] - **Styrene**: With the recovery of profits, the 450,000 - ton/year styrene device of Shenghong Refining and Chemical plans to restart and is expected to be put into production in mid - June; Hengli's maintenance device may also resume in advance In addition, multiple devices such as Lihuayi, Daqing Petrochemical, Yangba, and Lanzhou Petrochemical also have restart plans, and the overall supply of styrene is expected to increase Recently, the arrival volume of styrene has increased, but the downstream pick - up speed is slow, and it is expected that the port inventory will rise slightly on a low - level basis [4] 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring (1) Styrene & Pure Benzene Prices - On May 28, the main styrene futures contract decreased 1.38% to 7068 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged at 8110 yuan/ton The basis decreased 11.73% to 647 yuan/ton [6] - The price of pure benzene in East China remained unchanged at 5885 yuan/ton, while the prices of foreign pure benzene in South Korea, the United States, and China all decreased to varying degrees [6] - The pure benzene internal benefit - CFR spread increased 18.54% to - 332.4 yuan/ton, and the pure benzene East China - Shandong spread increased 142.86% to 85 yuan/ton [6] - The prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil decreased 1.04% and 1.81% respectively, while the price of naphtha remained unchanged [6] (2) Styrene & Pure Benzene Production and Inventory - From May 16 to May 23, China's styrene production decreased 2.81% to 31.7 tons, and pure benzene production increased 1.31% to 39.5 tons [7] - During the same period, the styrene port inventory in Jiangsu decreased 8.11% to 5.2 tons, the domestic styrene factory inventory decreased 12.32% to 18.6 tons, and the national pure benzene port inventory increased 4.07% to 12.8 tons [7] (3) Operating Rate - From May 16 to May 23, the capacity utilization rates of styrene and some pure benzene downstream products such as phenol and aniline decreased, while the capacity utilization rates of some products such as caprolactam increased [8] - Among styrene downstream products, the capacity utilization rates of EPS and ABS decreased, while the capacity utilization rate of PS increased [8] 3. Industry News - The minutes of the Fed's May meeting indicated that higher uncertainty is suitable for cautious interest rate cuts [9] - Trump's government submitted an appeal notice on May 29, 2025, after the federal court ruled that it had no right to impose extensive global tariffs The court's ruling suspended the implementation of these tariffs [9] - On May 28, OPEC + agreed to use the 2025 oil production level as the benchmark for 2027 [9] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides charts on pure benzene prices, styrene prices, styrene - pure benzene spreads, SM import and domestic pure benzene costs, styrene port and factory inventories, pure benzene port inventory, ABS, PS, EPS inventories, and the weekly capacity utilization rates of caprolactam, phenol, and aniline [10][18][19][23][25][26][27][29][31]

理性预期回归挤出情绪溢价，PX、PTA估值存回调修复压力 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 1. PTA&PX 05月21日，PX 主力合约收6766.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨1.47%，基差 为-1.0元/吨。PTA 主力合约收4788.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨1.18%，基 差为112.0元/吨。 成本端，05月21日，布油主力合约收盘65.6美元/桶。WTI收62.25美元/ 桶。 市场继续关注俄乌、美伊局势，油价短期震荡格局对成本端支撑有限。涤 丝库存压力缓解，未来关注下游纱厂备货节奏。 1/8 二、产业链价格监测 | | 数据指标 | 2025-05-21 | 2025-05-20 | 変化 | 近日涨跌幅 | 走勢 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX期货 | 主力合约价格 | 6,766 | 6,668 | 98 | 1.47% | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current crude oil market features "weak reality, strong expectation." In the short - term, the price is under pressure, with WTI and Brent continuing weak oscillations. In the medium - term, the price center may gradually rise from a low level. In the long - term, the upward space is restricted. Overall, the oil price may maintain a pattern of "low - level oscillation with a slowly rising center," and the fluctuation range may break through if the Iran - US nuclear negotiation fails or geopolitical conflicts escalate [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Data Change Analysis - SC crude oil rose slightly to 470.1 yuan/barrel on May 21, up 1.01% from the previous day, indicating a marginal improvement in the market's demand expectation for the Asian region. WTI and Brent continued to decline, with WTI closing at $61.34/barrel (down 1.46%) and Brent at $64.58/barrel (down 1.55%), affected by inventory pressure and demand concerns in the European and American markets. - The SC - Brent spread strengthened significantly, rising from -$1.15/barrel to $0.65/barrel. The spread of SC near - month contracts (continuous - continuous 3) changed from backwardation to flat price (-0.9→0.0 yuan/barrel), indicating a short - term alleviation of supply - demand contradictions [3] 3.1.2 Supply, Demand and Inventory Dynamics - **Supply side**: OPEC+ may continue to increase production in July, but the increase may be weaker than expected. The supply increase has uncertainties due to Iraq's reservation on the energy agreement in the Kurdish region. EIA data shows that the US crude oil imports dropped to 110,000 barrels (previous value: 422,000 barrels), and the commissioned crude oil volume decreased to 89,000 barrels/day (previous value: 330,000 barrels/day), indicating a short - term supply contraction [4] - **Demand side**: The implied demand for US crude oil production rose to 19.291 million barrels/day (previous value: 18.735 million barrels/day), but the distillate fuel oil demand fell to 4.7703 million barrels/day (previous value: 5.2107 million barrels/day). The gasoline inventory decreased by 300,000 barrels, showing a structural differentiation in demand. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory increased by 843,000 barrels (previous value: 528,000 barrels), which may imply the government's concern about the medium - and long - term supply [4] - **Inventory**: The US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 1.328 million barrels unexpectedly (expected: -1.277 million barrels). High inventories in Cushing and globally suppress the upward space of oil prices [4] 3.1.3 Industry Chain and Price Trend Judgment - The current crude oil market shows the characteristics of "weak reality, strong expectation." In the short - term, the rising US commercial inventory, the decline in distillate fuel oil demand and the OPEC+ production increase expectation suppress the near - end price, and WTI and Brent continue weak oscillations. In the medium - term, the strengthening of SC crude oil and the repair of the near - month spread reflect the increasing restocking demand of Asian refineries. Coupled with the weakening expectation of the US economic recession and geopolitical risks, the oil price center may gradually rise from a low level. In the long - term, the accelerating energy transition and the slowing demand growth rate limit the upward space, and the pattern of oversupply has not reversed [5] 3.2 Industry Chain Price Monitoring 3.2.1 Crude Oil - **Futures prices**: SC rose, WTI and Brent fell. The spreads of SC - Brent, SC - WTI strengthened, while the Brent - WTI spread narrowed slightly. The spread of SC continuous - continuous 3 changed from backwardation to flat price [6] - **Spot prices**: Most spot prices showed an upward trend, with different increases [6] - **Inventory**: The US commercial crude oil inventory increased, the Cushing inventory decreased, and the US Strategic Reserve inventory increased [6] - **开工**: The US refinery weekly operating rate and crude oil processing volume increased slightly [6] 3.2.2 Fuel Oil - **Futures prices**: FU and LU rose slightly, while NYMEX fuel oil fell slightly [7] - **Spot prices**: Most spot prices showed an upward trend, with different increases. The spreads between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuels in Singapore and China narrowed [7] - **Inventory**: The Singapore inventory decreased, while the US distillate inventories showed different changes [7] 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Supply - The US EIA crude oil imports and commissioned crude oil volume decreased in the week ending May 16. Iraq's oil minister has reservations about the energy agreement in the Kurdish region. Turkey's shale oil reserves are estimated to be 6.1 billion barrels. OPEC+ may continue to increase production in July, but the increase may be weaker [8][9] 3.3.2 Demand - The implied demand for US crude oil production increased, while the distillate fuel oil demand decreased. The渣油 market is under pressure [10] 3.3.3 Inventory - The US EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased, the new - formula gasoline inventory decreased, the heating oil inventory decreased, and the crude oil inventory increased unexpectedly [11] 3.3.4 Market Information - The prices of Shanghai gold and silver futures rose, and the SC crude oil futures price showed different trends. The EU is discussing the oil price cap on Russia, and South Africa plans to increase fuel taxes. The shipping and wholesale markets of fuel oil are not operating well [12] 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil, US and OPEC crude oil production, refinery operating rates, and inventories, etc., with data sources from WIND, EIA, etc. [13][15][17]

乙二醇成本支撑松动，当前供需格局下盘面谨慎回调 一、日度市场总结 乙二醇期货及现货价格延续窄幅震荡格局，主力期货合约微涨4元/吨至 4370元/吨，华东现货价格上涨5元/吨至4505元/吨，基差小幅收敛4元至 140元/吨。 供应方面，河南两套共计40万吨乙二醇装置预计5月24日停车检修，检修时 长10天左右。黔西煤化30万吨乙二醇装置预计今日升温重启。新疆天业95 万吨产能4月3日-5月6日停车检修，哈密广汇40万吨产能3月21日因管道问 题停车，预计持续到7月，中化学新材料30万吨装置3月23日停车，预计6月 初重启。中沙天津38万吨装置4月21日检修45天左右，中海壳牌35万吨装置 5月6日停车检修20天左右。截至5月15日，中国大陆地区乙二醇整体开工负 荷在60.51%（环比上期下降8.48%），其中草酸催化加氢法（合成气）制乙 二醇开工负荷在60.04%（环比上期下降6.71%）。5月12日-5月18日，张家 港到货数量约为4.3万吨，太仓码头到货数量约为0.7万吨，宁波到货数量 约为0.5万吨，上海到货数量约为0万吨，主港计划到货总数约为5.5万 吨。 需求方面，聚酯工厂负荷94.2%。国内织造综 ...