1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pure benzene market shows a situation of increasing supply and demand. In the third quarter, it will face a pattern of simultaneous growth in supply and demand, and attention should be paid to the mismatch in the production schedules of new upstream and downstream capacities [3]. - The styrene market shows a weakening supply - demand pattern. With the 3S entering the traditional off - season and the decline in downstream开工率, styrene has entered a inventory accumulation channel. Attention should be paid to the change of the near - end basis and the commissioning progress of Yulong Petrochemical's disproportionation unit [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Daily Market Summary 3.1.1. Fundamentals - On July 4, the main styrene contract closed up 0.59% at 7340 yuan/ton, with a basis of 290 (+22 yuan/ton). The main Brent crude oil contract closed at 67.0 dollars/barrel (-0.5 dollars/barrel), the main WTI crude oil contract closed at 68.8 dollars/barrel (-0.3 dollars/barrel), and the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5880 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton) [2]. - Styrene sample factory inventory was 19.4 million tons (-0.6 million tons), a 3.0% decrease in inventory compared to the previous period. Jiangsu port inventory was 9.9 million tons (+1.4 million tons), a 16.2% increase in inventory compared to the previous period, and overall styrene inventory tended to accumulate [2]. - Styrene maintenance devices gradually returned, and overall supply remained stable. Currently, the weekly styrene output remained at 36.7 million tons (+0 million tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate was 80.0% (-0.1%) [2]. - The capacity utilization rates of the three major downstream products (3S) of styrene changed differently. The EPS capacity utilization rate was 55.9 (-3.84%), the ABS capacity utilization rate was 65.0% (-1.0%), and the PS capacity utilization rate was 52.4% (-5.0%), with the overall开工 rate declining [2]. 3.1.2. Views - **Pure Benzene**: The current pure benzene market shows a situation of increasing supply and demand. The supply side has fluctuations in the petroleum benzene开工率, while the hydrogenated benzene开工率 has climbed to a historical high. The demand has recovered to the level before the maintenance season in the second quarter. This week, the East China port inventory accumulated, and it is expected to continue to accumulate next Monday. The news of the possible early commissioning of Yulong Petrochemical's pure benzene unit has widened the price difference between pure benzene and styrene. In the third quarter, it will face a pattern of simultaneous growth in supply and demand [3]. - **Styrene**: The current styrene market shows a weakening supply - demand pattern. Although the overall industry开工率 remains stable, the weekly output has reached a historical high. The开工 rates of the three major downstream products (PS, ABS, EPS) have all declined. The 3S has entered the traditional off - season, and the terminal's consumption demand expectation for the third quarter is pessimistic. The East China port inventory has significantly accumulated, and styrene has entered an inventory accumulation channel. However, due to the continuous stockpiling behavior of industrial giants, the basis of the July contract has not returned to the normal level, and attention should be paid to the change of the near - end basis and the commissioning progress of Yulong Petrochemical's disproportionation unit [4]. 3.2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring 3.2.1. Styrene and Pure Benzene Prices - On July 4, the main styrene futures contract price increased by 0.59% to 7340 yuan/ton, the spot price remained unchanged at 7904 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 8.21% to 290 yuan/ton. The price of pure benzene in East China increased by 0.34% to 5880 yuan/ton [6]. - The prices of pure benzene in South Korea (FOB), the United States (FOB), and China (CFR) all had small fluctuations, with increases of 0.42%, 0.00%, and 0.14% respectively. The price difference between domestic and imported pure benzene and the price difference between East China and Shandong pure benzene also changed [6]. - The prices of upstream Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and naphtha all decreased, with decreases of 0.67%, 0.45%, and 0.10% respectively [6]. 3.2.2. Styrene and Pure Benzene Output and Inventory - From June 27 to July 4, the styrene output in China remained at 36.7 million tons, and the pure benzene output remained at 43.3 million tons [7]. - The styrene port inventory in Jiangsu increased by 16.24% to 9.9 million tons, the domestic styrene factory inventory decreased by 2.99% to 19.4 million tons, and the national pure benzene port inventory increased by 3.51% to 17.7 million tons [7]. 3.2.3.开工Rate Situation - Among the pure benzene downstream products, the styrene capacity utilization rate decreased slightly by 0.05% to 80.0%, the caprolactam capacity utilization rate increased by 6.41% to 95.7%, the phenol capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.46% to 78.5%, and the aniline capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.10% to 69.2% [8]. - Among the styrene downstream products, the EPS capacity utilization rate decreased by 3.84% to 55.9%, the ABS capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.96% to 65.0%, and the PS capacity utilization rate decreased by 5.00% to 52.4% [8]. 3.3. Industry News - Trump believes there is no need to extend the July 9 tariff deadline, and the US Treasury Secretary admits that it may be difficult to complete all negotiations [9]. - Trump may lead a delegation to visit China. US officials are formulating a plan for Trump to lead dozens of CEOs to visit China later this year, similar to his Middle East trip in May, which facilitated transactions worth over 2 trillion dollars [9]. - Republican senators promoted the passage of a "great and beautiful" bill. The US Senate advanced Trump's tax reform bill with a narrow 51 - 49 vote in a key procedural vote [9]. 3.4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides charts on pure benzene prices, styrene prices, styrene - pure benzene price differences, SM import and domestic pure benzene costs, styrene port inventory, styrene factory inventory, pure benzene port inventory, ABS inventory, and the weekly capacity utilization rates of caprolactam, phenol, and aniline [10][16][17][28]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core View of the Report - The copper market may maintain a high - level, volatile and weakening pattern in the next 1 - 2 weeks. The core drivers include the domestic smelting increment on the supply side offsetting overseas mine - end disturbances, the continuous fermentation of off - season pressure and high - price suppression effects on the demand side, and the poor macro - sentiment due to the US non - farm payroll data exceeding expectations and suppressing interest - rate cut expectations [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Copper Futures Market Data Changes**: On July 4, the SHFE main contract price dropped 0.81% to 80,030 yuan/ton, and the LME three - month copper price fell to 9,951.5 dollars/ton. The discount of flat - water copper remained at 80 yuan/ton, and the discount of wet - process copper narrowed to - 5 yuan/ton. The LME (0 - 3) basis fell to 87.61 dollars/ton. The LME open interest slightly shrank to 282,135 lots, and the domestic SHFE inventory increased 1.01% to 95,275 tons within the week [1] - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain**: - **Supply Side**: In June, Chile's copper and copper ore exports to China dropped to 29,990 tons and 809,837 tons respectively, limiting short - term overseas mine - end increments. China's electrolytic copper production in the first half of the year increased 11.4% year - on - year [2] - **Demand Side**: The off - season effect deepened. In the first week of July, the operating rate of refined copper rods turned negative year - on - year, the operating rate of cable enterprises dropped to 67.81%, and the household appliance production plan decreased 2.6% year - on - year. Only the power sector's demand was relatively stable, but it could not offset the overall weak consumption [2] - **Inventory Side**: The LME inventory decreased 7.45% to 22,307 tons within the week, the COMEX inventory increased 3.7% to 220,954 short tons, and the domestic SHFE inventory continuously increased to 95,275 tons, but the total inventory was still at a year - on - year low [2] - **Market Summary**: The copper market may maintain a high - level, volatile and weakening pattern in the next 1 - 2 weeks [3] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Price Changes**: On July 4, the SMM 1 copper price was 80,580 yuan/ton, down 0.62% from the previous day. The SHFE price was 80,030 yuan/ton, down 0.81%, and the LME price was 9,852 dollars/ton, down 1.00%. The discount of wet - process copper narrowed, and the LME (0 - 3) basis increased 8.83% [5] - **Inventory Changes**: The LME inventory decreased 7.45% to 22,307 tons, the SHFE inventory increased 1.01% to 95,275 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased to 220,954 short tons [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On July 5, Chile's copper and copper ore exports to China in June decreased. EroCopper's Tucuma copper project in Brazil achieved commercial production, but analysts were skeptical about its annual production target [6] - On July 4, due to the off - season and high copper prices, the operating rates of refined copper rod and cable enterprises decreased, and the inventory decreased. Except for the power sector, other industries' demand was generally suppressed by high copper prices [6][7] - On July 3, the second rotary anode furnace of the fire - smelting system of the Yunnan Zhongyou non - ferrous metal recycled copper resource recycling base project produced the first furnace of anode copper, marking the full completion of the project [7] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, dollar index and LME copper price correlation, US interest rate and LME copper price correlation, TC processing fees, CFTC copper open interest, LME copper net long open interest analysis, Shanghai copper warehouse receipts, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [8][9][13]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The short - term lithium carbonate market may maintain a low - level oscillation. Although there are some marginal improvement signals in the fundamentals, the high inventory and weak actual procurement limit the upward space of prices, while the cost and expected improvement support the downside [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Change Analysis - On July 4, the main contract of lithium carbonate closed at 63,280 yuan/ton, down 1.25% from the previous trading day; the basis rose from - 1,880 yuan/ton to - 880 yuan/ton [2]. - The open interest of the main contract decreased by 2.63% to 325,000 lots, and the trading volume shrank significantly by 17.4% to 348,000 lots, indicating a decline in market trading activity [2]. b. Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - Supply side: The domestic lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.59% month - on - month to 61.8%, and there is still medium - term supply pressure; the prices of spodumene and lepidolite concentrates remained stable, not significantly disturbing the cost [3]. - Demand side: The prices of downstream cathode materials rose steadily. The price of power - type lithium iron phosphate increased by 0.15% month - on - month to 30,705 yuan/ton, and ternary materials also rose slightly. The retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in June reached 52.7%. The cell prices remained stable, and downstream manufacturers' acceptance of high - priced lithium salts was limited, with procurement mainly for rigid restocking [3]. - Inventory and warehouse receipts: The total inventory of lithium carbonate increased to 138,347 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%, with five consecutive weeks of inventory accumulation [3]. c. Price Trend Judgment - The short - term lithium carbonate market may maintain a low - level oscillation. Although the contradiction is weakened under the double increase of supply and demand, the inventory suppression still exists. The spot price has stabilized and rebounded, and the steady growth of new energy vehicle sales in June supports the demand expectation. However, although there is partial production reduction on the supply side, the release of new production capacity and high inventory pressure limit the price rebound space [4]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On July 4, 2025, compared with July 3, the main contract of lithium carbonate decreased by 1.25% to 63,280 yuan/ton; the basis increased by 53.19% to - 880 yuan/ton; the open interest of the main contract decreased by 2.63% to 325,288 lots; the trading volume decreased by 17.4% to 347,729 lots; the market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.32% to 62,400 yuan/ton. The prices of spodumene concentrate, lepidolite concentrate, and lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged [6]. - Compared with June 27, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate decreased by 1.59% to 61.8%; the inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 1.1% to 138,347 tons. The prices of various types of cells remained unchanged [6]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation a. Spot Market Quotations - On July 4, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 62,240 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 186 yuan/ton; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 62,300 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 200 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 60,700 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 200 yuan/ton. Affected by the improved demand expectation in July, the spot price stopped falling and rebounded slightly. However, the supply is still at a high level, and the inventory pressure remains [7]. b. Downstream Consumption Situation - According to preliminary statistics from the Passenger Car Association on July 3, from June 1 - 30, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market were 1.071 million, a year - on - year increase of 25% and a month - on - month increase of 4%, with a retail penetration rate of 52.7%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 5.429 million, a year - on - year increase of 32%. The wholesale volume of new energy vehicles by national passenger car manufacturers was 1.259 million, a year - on - year increase of 28% and a month - on - month increase of 3%, with a wholesale penetration rate of 50.9%, and the cumulative wholesale volume this year was 6.465 million, a year - on - year increase of 38% [8]. c. Industry News - On July 4, Zangge Mining's subsidiary participated in the investment - holding of Tibet Ali Mami Cuo Mining Development Co., Ltd., which received the "Construction Project Construction Permit" for the "Mami Cuo Salt Lake Mining Area Lithium Boron Mine Project", which is beneficial for expanding the company's salt lake lithium extraction capacity [9][10]. - On June 30, Zhongkuang Resources planned to upgrade and transform its 25,000 - ton lithium salt production line and invest 120.7 million yuan to build a 30,000 - ton high - purity lithium salt technical transformation project, with a shutdown and transformation time of about 6 months [10]. - On June 24, the Mami Cuo Salt Lake project estimated a total investment of 4.537 billion yuan, with an annual production of 50,000 tons of battery - grade lithium carbonate and 17,000 tons of borax as a by - product [10]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including those related to the main contract and basis of lithium carbonate futures, lithium concentrate prices, lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte prices, cathode precursor prices, ternary material prices, lithium iron phosphate prices, lithium carbonate operating rate, lithium carbonate inventory, and cell selling prices [11][14][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The current market shows characteristics of "strong expectation, weak reality". The futures market is supported by marginal positives, and the resistance of the main contract is gradually emerging, but the spot price is restricted by high - level inventory and weak terminal demand. The trend of price increase still needs substantial inventory reduction and over - expected recovery of the demand side. The futures price may maintain a short - term shock, and attention should be paid to the actual demand recovery in July and changes on the supply side [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Futures Market Data Changes**: On July 3, the main contract of lithium carbonate closed at 64,080 yuan/ton, up 0.19% from the previous day, with a narrow - fluctuating price center; the basis weakened slightly to - 1,880 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest increased to 334,000 lots, a five - day high, but the trading volume shrank by 22.11% [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain**: On the supply side, the prices of lithium spodumene and lithium mica remained stable, but the capacity utilization rate of lithium salt plants remained at a high level of 62.8%, and the medium - and long - term supply pressure remained. On the demand side, there was a divergence in the power sector. The price of lithium iron phosphate materials rose by 0.36% to 30,660 yuan/ton, and the 5 - series ternary materials rose slightly by 0.04% due to cost support. However, the prices of lithium hexafluorophosphate and battery cells remained flat, and there was a risk of further decline in the power market demand in July. The overseas demand for energy storage provided support, but the consumer electronics market was in the traditional off - season, and the wet recycling market had light trading. The overall demand improvement was weak. The social inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 1.44% to 136,800 tons, and the oversupply pattern in the industrial chain remained unchanged [2]. - **Market Summary**: The recent market shows "strong expectation, weak reality" characteristics. The futures market is supported by marginal positives, and the resistance of the main contract is emerging. However, the spot price is restricted by high - level inventory and weak terminal demand. Attention should be paid to the change in the spot replenishment rhythm and the implementation of salt plant maintenance. If the inventory accumulation slope slows down, there may be a basis repair opportunity, but a trend - like increase still needs substantial inventory reduction and over - expected recovery of the demand side [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On July 3, 2025, the main contract of lithium carbonate was 64,080 yuan/ton, up 0.19% from the previous day; the basis was - 1,880 yuan/ton, down 1.08% from the previous day; the open interest of the main contract increased by 2.61% to 334,057 lots, and the trading volume decreased by 22.11% to 420,967 lots. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 62,200 yuan/ton, up 0.16% from the previous day. The market prices of lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate remained unchanged. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged. The price of power - type ternary materials rose by 0.04%, and the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate rose by 0.36%. The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate remained at 62.8%, and the inventory increased by 1.44% to 136,837 tons. The prices of various types of battery cells remained unchanged [5]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market Quotations**: On July 3, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 62,054 yuan/ton, up 416 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 62,100 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton from the previous working day, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 60,500 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The spot price showed signs of stopping falling and rebounding slightly, but the supply was still strong, and the inventory pressure remained. Attention should be paid to the actual demand recovery in July [6]. - **Downstream Consumption Situation**: From June 1 - 22, the retail volume of the national new - energy passenger vehicle market was 691,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 38% and a month - on - month increase of 11%, with a retail penetration rate of 54.5%. The wholesale volume of new - energy vehicles of national passenger vehicle manufacturers was 666,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 22% and a month - on - month increase of 6%, with a wholesale penetration rate of 53.8% [7]. - **Industry News**: - On June 30, Zhongkuang Resources planned to comprehensively upgrade the annual 25,000 - ton lithium salt production line and invest about 120.7 million yuan to build an annual 30,000 - ton high - purity lithium salt technical transformation project, with a shutdown and maintenance and technical transformation time of about 6 months [8][9]. - On June 24, the estimated total investment of the Mami Cuo Salt Lake project was 4.537 billion yuan, aiming to produce 50,000 tons of battery - grade lithium carbonate annually and recover boron elements, with a by - product of 17,000 tons of borax [9]. - On June 19, Yahua Group announced the establishment of Yahua Lithium Industry Group to integrate lithium - related resources, improve resource synergy efficiency, and focus on the development of the lithium industry [9]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides data charts on the main contract and basis of lithium carbonate futures, lithium concentrate prices, lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte prices, ternary precursor prices, ternary material prices, lithium iron phosphate prices, lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate, lithium carbonate inventory, and battery cell selling prices [10][14][16][18][19][23][24]. 3.5 Appendix: Large - Model Inference Process The futures price may maintain a short - term shock, and attention should be paid to the actual demand recovery in July and changes on the supply side. Although the spot price has rebounded slightly, the oversupply and inventory accumulation are the main pressures. The demand has some signs of recovery, but the overall strength is insufficient to support a significant increase. The weakening basis may show the reaction of the futures market to the expected improvement. The increase in open interest but the decrease in trading volume may indicate market divergence [31][32].

截至2025年7月1日，原油市场呈现多空交织态势。SC原油主力合约收报 499.4元/桶，较前日小幅上涨0.54%，盘中呈现探底回升走势。WTI与Brent 油价维持横向整理格局，分别持平于64.97和66.63美元/桶。值得注意的是 SC原油价差明显走强，SC-Brent价差环比扩大15%至3.1美元/桶，SC近远月 价差单日飙升30.7%至16.6元/桶，显示近端合约流动性溢价提升。 供需双向拉扯延续 油价维持弱势整理 一、日度市场总结 供应端呈现明显分化格局。OPEC+主要产油国持续释放增产动能，沙特6月 原油出口环比激增45万桶/日创一年新高至633万桶/日，哈萨克斯坦6月产 量环比增长7.5%至188万桶/日创历史纪录，俄罗斯7月黑海石油产品出口计 划环比增长22.3%至103.5万吨。但墨西哥产量下滑至1970年代末水平（目 前约160万桶/日，较峰值减少逾40%）引发美国炼油厂夏季供应担忧，该结 构性缺口推动美国得州原油产量回升至577万桶/日支撑区域平衡。 需求端季节性矛盾显现。北美夏季出行旺季推动炼厂开工率维持高位，EIA 周度数据显示美国商业原油库存加速去化1.5%，但山东独立炼厂6月30 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - PX cost support is weak, and attention should be paid to the possible increase in supply pressure due to high processing fees of PTA [1]. - The PTA downstream polyester operating rate is at a high level, the terminal textile trading has warmed up, and the demand side has rebounded. However, the marginal weakening of PX cost support and high PTA processing fees may lead to continued high operating loads, and attention should be paid to the supply - side recovery pressure [2]. - The cost decline and high short - fiber inventory will continue the weak pattern of the industrial chain, while the low inventory of filament may provide phased support. The risk of weakening demand in the traditional textile off - season needs to be vigilant [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary PTA&PX - On June 30, the PX main contract closed at 6,796.0 yuan/ton, up 0.65% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 40.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4,798.0 yuan/ton, up 0.42% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 222.0 yuan/ton [2]. - On the cost side, on June 30, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 66.34 US dollars/barrel, and WTI closed at 65.07 US dollars/barrel. On the demand side, on June 30, the total trading volume of Light Textile City was 663.0 million meters, and the 15 - day average trading volume was 620.33 million meters [2]. - PX: The cost side is affected by the narrow - range oscillation trend of international crude oil prices, and the support it can provide is relatively limited. The expected commissioning of new devices in Asia may bring supply pressure, and the limited repair space of downstream PTA processing fees may suppress the raw material procurement enthusiasm. It is expected that the PX price will maintain an oscillatory pattern [2]. - PTA: The downstream polyester operating rate of PTA is at a high level, the terminal textile trading has warmed up, and the demand side has rebounded. The strengthening of the basis reflects the tightness of spot goods. The marginal weakening of PX cost support and high PTA processing fees may lead to continued high operating loads, and attention should be paid to the supply - side recovery pressure [2]. Polyester - On June 30, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,542.0 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,730.0 yuan/ton, down 10.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 188.0 yuan/ton [3]. - On the supply side, the PX futures price oscillated downward from 7,076 yuan/ton on June 20 to 6,796 yuan/ton on June 30, and the PTA futures main contract also fell from 4,978 yuan/ton to 4,798 yuan/ton during the same period, and the raw material side declined under pressure [3]. - On the demand side, the MA15 trading volume of Light Textile City decreased continuously from 644.4 million meters on June 20 to 609.4 million meters on June 27 and then rebounded slightly, but it was still lower than the level at the beginning of the month, reflecting the lack of sustainability of terminal demand [3]. - In terms of inventory, the inventories of polyester filament FDY/POY/DTY were 18.9/17.2/25.3 days respectively, all lower than the five - year average values of 22.19/20.40/28.42 days, while the inventory of polyester short - fiber was 7.77 days, significantly higher than the five - year average of 4.96 days, indicating that the filament maintained a de - stocking trend, but the short - fiber had significant inventory accumulation pressure [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: The main contract price was 6,796 yuan/ton on June 30, up 0.65% from June 27; the main contract trading volume was 295,108 lots, up 29.61%; the main contract position was 115,158 lots, up 3.16% [4]. - PX spot: The CFR price at the main port in China was 866.67 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in South Korea was 850 US dollars/ton, up 0.95% [4]. - PTA futures: The main contract price was 4,798 yuan/ton on June 30, up 0.42% from June 27; the main contract trading volume was 1,088,784 lots, up 36.27%; the main contract position was 1,085,040 lots, down 0.81% [4]. - PTA spot: The CFR price at the main port in China was 653 US dollars/ton, unchanged [4]. - Short - fiber futures: The main contract price was 6,542 yuan/ton on June 30, up 0.25% from June 27; the main contract trading volume was 132,190 lots, up 0.05%; the main contract position was 102,404 lots, down 12.71% [4]. - Short - fiber spot: The mainstream price in the East China market was 6,730 yuan/ton, down 0.15% [4]. - Other prices: The prices of some products such as Brent crude oil, US crude oil, CFR Japanese naphtha, ethylene glycol, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY had different changes [4]. - Processing spreads: The processing spreads of naphtha, PX, PTA, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester short - fiber, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY also had different changes [5]. - Light Textile City trading volume: The total trading volume on June 30 was 663 million meters, down 16.29% from June 27; the trading volume of long - fiber fabrics was 533 million meters, and the trading volume of short - fiber fabrics was 129 million meters [5]. - Industrial chain load rates: The load rates of PTA factories, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged [5]. - Inventory days: The inventory days of polyester short - fiber, polyester POY, polyester FDY, and polyester DTY had different changes [5]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation Macro Dynamics - On June 30, Russia launched the largest - scale air strike on Ukraine since the conflict, and a Ukrainian F - 16 fighter jet crashed [6]. - On June 30, the US consumer spending in May unexpectedly decreased by 0.1%, lower than the market - expected increase of 0.1%, inflation rose moderately, the annual rate of the US core PCE price index in May was 2.7%, higher than the expected 2.6%, reaching a new high since February 2025; the monthly rate of the US core PCE price index in May was 0.2%, and the market expected it to remain flat at 0.1%, and traders increased their bets that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates three times in 2025 [6]. - On June 30, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari expected two interest - rate cuts starting from September, and the impact of tariffs might lead to a suspension of interest - rate cuts [6]. - On June 30, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that from January to May, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in the country was 2720.43 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1% [6]. - On June 27, some Fed officials made statements about interest - rate cuts [6]. Supply - Demand - Demand - On June 30, the total trading volume of Light Textile City was 663.0 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 16.29%, the trading volume of long - fiber fabrics was 533.0 million meters, and the trading volume of short - fiber fabrics was 129.0 million meters [8]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the main futures and basis of PX, PTA, and short - fiber, PX and PTA spot prices, PX capacity utilization rate, PTA and short - fiber futures monthly spreads, PTA processing profit, industrial chain load rate, polyester short - fiber and filament production and sales situations, Light Textile City trading volume moving average, and polyester product inventory days [9][11][13][15][16][20][23][24][25][26][27] 3.5 Appendix - The analysis of the future price trends of PX and PTA shows that PX may maintain or rise if the upstream crude oil is stable or rising, and PTA may also have an upward trend due to large basis and increasing demand. However, the possible fluctuations in crude oil prices and the decline in polyester operating rate are risk factors [35][36]

织造需求偏弱打击市场信心，乙二醇无新进利好支撑 www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 乙二醇主力期货价格三日累计下跌0.46%至4294元/吨，华东现货价格同步 下跌0.23%至4330元/吨。基差由26元/吨扩大至46元/吨，表明现货相对期 货表现强势。跨期价差呈现分化，近月1-5价差贴水扩大至-21元/吨，反映 市场对中期供需格局的谨慎预期。 成本端油制工艺延续深度亏损，石脑油制、乙烯制、甲醇制利润分别 为-102.5美元/吨、-982.18元/吨和-1543.37元/吨，煤制工艺也维持-292 元/吨亏损，各工艺成本倒挂未见改善。 产业链数据显示生产端维持低弹性，乙二醇总体开工率持平62.97%，煤制 与油制开工分别稳定在58.59%和65.91%。 需求端聚酯工厂负荷持续保持89.42%高位，江浙织机负荷稳定于63.43%， 但终端订单未见显著增量。 港口库存出现结构性分化，华东主港总库下降3.1万吨至50.57万吨，但张 家港单周累库1.9万吨，叠加到港量增至12.84万吨（环比+14.64%），显性 库存压力出现区域性反弹，预计去库节奏将趋缓。 当前乙二醇价格呈现弱成本定价特征，产业链 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil market is at the resonance point of macro - cycle conversion and industrial seasonal fluctuations. The extrusion effect of geopolitical premium continues, and the vacillation of OPEC+ production policy and the expectation of US dollar liquidity exert dual pressure. The market is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the OPEC+ technical committee meeting on July 5 and China's official PMI in June [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary - **Supply - side**: The rapid resumption of the Haifa refinery eases concerns about the escalation of the conflict at Iranian nuclear facilities. The approaching OPEC+ production policy adjustment window and the expectation of compensatory production increase in August weigh on the market. The change in the fuel oil market structure may stimulate the crude oil demand at the back - end of high - sulfur fuel oil passive reduction [2]. - **Demand - side**: It presents a mixed situation. The US summer travel season supports high refinery operating rates, and the replenishment demand of the US strategic petroleum reserve and the decline in distillate inventories are short - term positives. However, macro - level risks are emerging. The suspension of US - Canada trade negotiations by the Trump administration and the decline in CBOT soybean oil futures raise concerns. The significant repair of the domestic refined oil wholesale - retail spread may stimulate an early start of the refinery's replenishment cycle in the third quarter [3]. - **Inventory**: There are contradictory signals. Although the US commercial crude oil inventory is in a destocking cycle, the assessments of OECD inventories by three major global institutions are divergent. The high utilization rate of the Cushing delivery terminal and the increase in floating storage in Asia indicate potential pressure on the WTI near - month contract and passive inventory accumulation by traders [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: On June 30, 2025, the settlement price of the SC crude oil main contract dropped slightly to 496.7 yuan/barrel, with a weekly cumulative decline of 0.36%. WTI and Brent oil prices were in a narrow range. The SC - Brent spread narrowed continuously, while the SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread strengthened. The US commercial crude oil inventory decreased, and the refinery operating rate and crude oil processing volume increased [2][6]. - **Fuel Oil**: The prices of most fuel oil futures and spot products were stable or slightly decreased. The Platts prices of 380CST and 180CST decreased significantly. The low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse futures warehouse receipt increased by 15,000 tons [7]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Supply**: The Haifa refinery in Israel, which was damaged by an Iranian missile attack, has partially resumed production and is expected to fully resume by October [8]. - **Demand**: The domestic refined oil wholesale - retail spread has recovered, indicating potential improvement in refinery profits and demand. The CBOT soybean oil futures declined, which may indirectly affect the demand for biodiesel and crude oil [9]. - **Inventory**: The fuel oil futures warehouse receipt remained unchanged, the low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse futures warehouse receipt increased by 15,000 tons, and the medium - sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipt remained unchanged [10]. - **Market Information**: After the influence of Middle - East geopolitical disturbances fades, the market focuses on macro and supply - demand fundamentals. The oil price is expected to remain volatile due to the balance between the expected production increase by OPEC+ and the support from US summer demand and inventory reduction [10][11]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts related to crude oil and fuel oil, including prices, production, inventory, and refinery operating rates, with data sources from WIND, EIA, PAJ, iFinD, etc. [13][15][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market may maintain high - level volatility in the short term. Supply - side factors such as the resumption of mine shipments and high domestic smelting capacity release pose pressure, but export diversion and the commissioning of bonded mixed ore support domestic spot premiums. On the demand side, the continuous decline in the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises restricts the upside space, and the weakening of the US dollar provides short - term bullish support [6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Copper Futures Market Data Changes - On June 30, the main contract of SHFE copper closed at 79,800 yuan/ton, a slight drop of 0.08% from the previous day. The LME copper price slightly declined from $9,896/ton to $9,879/ton, maintaining a high - level volatility pattern. The premiums of premium copper, flat - water copper, and wet - process copper in the spot market all increased, and the basis strengthened overall [1]. - SHFE copper inventory decreased by 650 tons to 90,625 tons, with two consecutive weeks of destocking. LME copper inventory continued to increase by 505 tons to 25,851 tons. The holding volume of the LME 0 - 3 copper contract increased by 4,590 lots to 292,214 lots [2]. 3.1.2 Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply side: Overseas mine disturbances eased, and the domestic smelting sector showed differentiation. The spot supply in Jiangsu was tight due to export plans, while the warehouse receipts in Shanghai and Guangdong increased, and the smelting plant operating rate remained high [3]. - Demand side: The operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises continued to decline. During the week from June 20th to 26th, it decreased by 1.81 percentage points to 74.01%, and some enterprises planned further production cuts and inventory reduction at the beginning of July. Downstream buyers showed obvious high - price aversion, with weak spot trading in North China [4]. - Inventory side: The pressure of overseas visible inventory increased, with the LME inventory increasing by more than 2,000 tons in two consecutive weeks to 25,851 tons, and the COMEX inventory also increasing to 209,281 short tons. The destocking pace of domestic SHFE inventory slowed down, and there was a risk of spot market liquidity after export diversion [5]. 3.2 Industry Chain Price Monitoring - The price of SMM 1 copper decreased by 210 yuan/ton to 80,090 yuan/ton on June 30, a decrease of 0.26%. The premiums of premium copper, flat - water copper, and wet - process copper all increased, with increases of 11.11%, 35.29%, and 83.33% respectively. The LME (0 - 3) price decreased by 59 dollars/ton to 182 dollars/ton, a decrease of 24.51%. The SHFE price decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 79,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.08%. The LME price decreased by 1 dollar/ton to 9,878 dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.01% [8]. - LME inventory increased by 505 tons to 25,851 tons, an increase of 1.99%. SHFE inventory decreased by 650 tons to 90,625 tons, a decrease of 0.71%. COMEX inventory increased by 1,928 short tons to 211,209 short tons, an increase of 0.92% [8]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - On June 30, SHFE copper futures warehouse receipts increased by 505 tons, with 399 tons in Shanghai and 401 tons in Guangdong, and a decrease of 295 tons in Jiangsu. The continuous decrease of warehouse receipts in Jiangsu was due to the export plans of local smelters [9]. - On June 30, First Quantum Minerals' Cobre Panama copper mine started to transport copper ore, which may increase supply [9]. - From June 20th to 26th, the weekly operating rate of domestic main refined copper rod enterprises decreased to 74.01%, a decrease of 1.81 percentage points, lower than the expected value by 2.22 percentage points, and an increase of 4.99 percentage points year - on - year. It is expected that the operating rate will further decline to 73.48% in the week from June 27th to July 3rd [9]. - On June 25th, the copper concentrate mixing project of Zhongtong (Tangshan) Mineral Products Co., Ltd. was successfully put into operation, marking the full - scale smooth operation of the bonded mixed ore business process [10]. 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts of China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, US interest rate and LME copper price correlation, dollar index and LME copper price correlation, TC processing fees, CFTC copper positions, LME copper net long positions analysis, SHFE copper warehouse receipts, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [11][12][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the risk of supply disruption has significantly weakened, but the arrival of the summer demand peak season may limit the speed of oil price decline. The Middle - East situation and the realization of the Northern Hemisphere's peak oil demand season in the next week need to be closely monitored [2][3]. - The market may fluctuate between supply disruptions and slowing demand, leading to high - level oscillations in oil prices. However, caution should be exercised regarding the risk of decline triggered by macro - economic factors. SC crude oil may show differentiation from international oil prices due to domestic factors, but the sharp drop at the close indicates a possible shift in market sentiment [69]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Price Movements**: As of June 23, 2025, the SC crude oil futures price rebounded slightly from 566.6 yuan/barrel to 574.5 yuan/barrel, a 1.39% increase, but dropped 5.65% to 538 yuan/barrel in the night session. WTI and Brent tumbled 9.2% and 9.82% to 67.23 dollars/barrel and 69.73 dollars/barrel respectively. The SC - Brent spread strengthened 559.35% to 10.22 dollars/barrel, the SC - WTI spread widened 163.35% to 12.72 dollars/barrel, and the Brent - WTI spread narrowed 23.78% to 2.5 dollars/barrel [2]. - **Supply**: Trump's post on social media stating that Israel and Iran had agreed to a cease - fire led to the first round of crude oil price decline, with overnight prices dropping over 5% [2]. - **Demand**: Demand showed regional differentiation. India's crude oil imports in May increased 5.9% year - on - year to 23.3 million tons, and diesel and gasoline exports rose 9.7% and 13.7% respectively. However, demand concerns emerged in Europe and Southeast Asia. Refinery profits also varied, with China's diesel crack spread remaining at a high of 15 dollars/barrel in May, while the seasonal accumulation of US gasoline inventories pressured the crack spread [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory dimension presented contradictory signals. The warehouse receipts of medium - sulfur crude oil at the Shanghai Energy Exchange remained at 4.029 million barrels, and those of low - sulfur fuel oil and fuel oil were 0 tons and 22,800 tons respectively, suggesting limited physical delivery pressure in China [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: Futures prices of SC, WTI, and Brent changed, with SC rising, and WTI and Brent falling. Spot prices of various crude oil types also had different changes. Spreads such as SC - Brent, SC - WTI, and Brent - WTI showed significant movements. Other assets like the US dollar index, S&P 500, DAX index, and RMB exchange rate also had corresponding changes. In terms of inventory, US commercial crude oil, Cushing, and API inventories decreased, while the strategic reserve inventory increased slightly. US refinery weekly operating rates and crude oil processing volumes declined [5]. - **Fuel Oil**: Futures prices of FU, LU, and NYMEX fuel oil changed, with some rising and some falling. Spot prices of different fuel oil types also had various changes. Spreads such as the Singapore and Chinese high - low sulfur spreads changed, and inventory in Singapore decreased [6]. 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Supply**: On June 23, Venezuela's second - largest refinery shut down due to a power outage. Multiple foreign oil companies in Iraq evacuated staff, and Russia's Rosneft will suspend production at the Sakhalin - 1 project in August for maintenance. Thailand considered banning oil and electricity supply to Cambodia [7][8]. - **Demand**: Spain's national airline suspended flights to Doha on June 23, and Israel's Ben - Gurion Airport will resume limited flight operations [8]. - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts of low - sulfur fuel oil, medium - sulfur crude oil, and fuel oil remained unchanged [9]. - **Market Information**: As of 2:30, the main contracts of Shanghai gold, Shanghai silver, and SC crude oil had different price changes. Brazil's national oil company did not plan to raise fuel prices for now. The LPG main contract fell 2.00%. Some companies' stock prices and project progress were also reported [9]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including those related to WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil prices and spreads, US and global oil production, refinery operating rates, and inventory data from different regions [13][15][17] etc.