Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The lithium carbonate market is currently in a state of divergence due to both supply and demand increases. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range fluctuation within the 72,000 - 75,000 point range in the near term. The supply - demand contradiction is not yet intensified, and price breakthrough requires new driving factors [1][3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary - **Futures Market Data**: On October 15, the main contract of lithium carbonate closed at 72,720 yuan/ton, up 0.06% from the previous day, showing a narrow - range oscillation pattern in the past week. The basis weakened to 180 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest decreased by 4,408 lots to 188,523 lots, and the trading volume shrank by 16.68% to 225,238 lots [1][5]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: The utilization rate of lithium salt production capacity remained at a high level of 71.3%. The prices of spodumene concentrate and lithium mica remained stable at 6,370 yuan/ton and 3,400 yuan/ton respectively. The demand for power batteries was strong, with new - energy passenger vehicle retail sales in September increasing by 16% year - on - year to 1.307 million vehicles, and the penetration rate reaching 58.5%. The price of ternary materials significantly rebounded, and the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate rose by 500 yuan to 74,000 yuan/ton. The total inventory of lithium carbonate decreased for four consecutive weeks to 134,801 tons, and the registered warrants also decreased, indicating that the industry chain has entered the active de - stocking stage [2]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On October 15, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased slightly by 40 yuan to 72,720 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 0.06%. The basis weakened by 40 yuan to 180 yuan/ton, with a change rate of - 18.18%. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 4,408 lots to 188,523 lots, and the trading volume decreased by 45,089 lots to 225,238 lots. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 72,900 yuan/ton. The prices of spodumene concentrate and lithium mica also remained stable. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate rose by 500 yuan to 74,000 yuan/ton, and the price of power - type ternary materials increased by 3,000 yuan to 128,500 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market Quotation**: On October 15, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,037 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The price range of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,400 - 73,600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 73,000 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous working day. The price range of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 70,150 - 71,350 yuan/ton, with an average price of 70,750 yuan/ton, also remaining unchanged. The lithium carbonate futures price continued the oscillating trend, with the main contract in the range of 72,200 - 73,800 yuan/ton. In October, the supply is expected to increase steadily, but the strong demand in the power and energy - storage fields will drive the market into a significant de - stocking stage, resulting in a phased supply - tight situation [6]. - **Downstream Consumption**: According to preliminary statistics from the Passenger Car Association, from September 1 - 30, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles nationwide reached 1.307 million, a year - on - year increase of 16% and a month - on - month increase of 17%. The penetration rate of new - energy passenger vehicle retail sales was 58.5%, and the cumulative retail sales this year reached 8.878 million, a year - on - year increase of 24%. The wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers nationwide was 1.489 million, a year - on - year increase of 21% and a month - on - month increase of 15%. The wholesale penetration rate was 53.8%, and the cumulative wholesale volume this year reached 10.433 million, a year - on - year increase of 32% [7]. - **Industry News**: On September 20, the mechanical and electrical equipment of EVE Energy's Hungary base officially entered, marking the project's civil engineering entering a critical stage. The base is expected to be completed in 2026 and will supply large - cylindrical batteries to BMW Group's Debrecen plant. On September 25, Tianqi Lithium's 30,000 - ton battery - grade lithium hydroxide project in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu was completed and put into operation. On September 20 - 24, Tibet Mining's 10,000 - ton lithium carbonate project at Zabuye Salt Lake completed a 120 - hour functional assessment, indicating its official operation, which is expected to significantly improve the domestic lithium resource self - sufficiency rate [8][9].

Group 1: Report Title and Date - Energy Chemicals Pure Benzene & Styrene Daily Report, published on October 16, 2025 [1] Group 2: Daily Market Summary - Fundamentals - On October 15, the main styrene contract closed down 0.06% at 6,540 yuan/ton, with a basis of 0 (-41 yuan/ton); the main pure benzene contract closed down 0.32% at 5,579 yuan/ton [2] - On October 15, Brent crude closed at $58.7 per barrel (-$0.8 per barrel), and WTI crude closed at $62.4 per barrel (-$0.9 per barrel). The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5,590 yuan/ton (-35 yuan/ton) [2] - Styrene port inventory was 19.7 tons (-0.5 tons), a 2.7% decline; pure benzene port inventory was 9.1 tons (-1.5 tons), a 14.2% decline [2] - Styrene maintenance units started to resume, with the production rate and supply increasing month-on-month. Currently, the weekly styrene output is 34.8 tons (+1.1 tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate is 73.6% (+2.4%) [2] - The operating rates of downstream 3S varied, with overall demand weakening. The EPS capacity utilization rate was 40.7% (-2.4%), the ABS capacity utilization rate was 72.5% (+1.5%), and the PS capacity utilization rate was 54.6% (-1.7%) [2] Group 3: Daily Market Summary - Views - Pure benzene: On the supply side, the operating rate of petroleum benzene units increased slightly, and the load of hydrobenzene units decreased slightly but had limited impact. Overall, the pure benzene output increased slightly month-on-month. On the demand side, the operating rates of downstream styrene, caprolactam, aniline, and adipic acid units increased to varying degrees, and phenol remained stable, driving the overall weighted operating rate of downstream products to increase month-on-month. However, the recovery of terminal demand was still insufficient. The inventory at East China ports continued to decline slightly, although it was still at a relatively high level. Affected by the weakening of international oil prices and the pressure on downstream product prices, the processing profit of petroleum benzene remained in a low range. Looking ahead to this week, some petroleum benzene and hydrobenzene units are planned to restart, and the supply of pure benzene may continue to increase. In October, new styrene, caprolactam, and phenol units are about to be put into operation, and although the calculated demand has increased, due to styrene maintenance and the reduction of some downstream loads, the overall boost is limited. The external oil price dropped significantly due to the US plan to impose tariffs, weakening the cost support. In the short term, pure benzene may continue to fluctuate weakly [2] - Styrene: On the supply side, two units of Zhejiang Petrochemical restarted, and the load of some units in South China increased, resulting in a month-on-month increase in overall output. On the demand side, the operating rates of EPS, PS, and ABS units decreased, terminal consumption continued to be weak, and spot transactions were light. The inventory at factories and ports continued to decline month-on-month, but the high-level pressure had not been fully released. Affected by the decline in the prices of pure benzene and ethylene, the non-integrated cost decreased, and the profit repair was limited. In the short term, the shutdown and maintenance of units at Jingbosidarei, Anhui Jiaxi, and Guangzhou Petrochemical will partially offset the increase from the restart of Zhejiang Petrochemical, and the capacity utilization rate may increase slightly this week. In October, about 1.2 million tons of new styrene production capacity is still planned to be put into operation, while new downstream EPS, PS, and ABS units are concentrated in November - December, and the supply-demand mismatch may further intensify. The downstream profit is low, and the finished product inventory is high, limiting the demand recovery. Affected by the expectation of US tariff increases, international oil prices weakened, and the cost-side support weakened. In the short term, styrene may continue to fluctuate weakly [2] Group 4: Industrial Chain Data Monitoring - Prices - From October 13 to 14, 2025, the main styrene futures contract decreased from 6,690.0 to 6,544.0 yuan/ton, a 2.18% decline; the styrene spot price remained unchanged at 7,020.0 yuan/ton; the styrene basis increased from 15.0 to 41.0 yuan/ton, a 173.33% increase [4] - The main pure benzene futures contract decreased from 5,682.0 to 5,597.0 yuan/ton, a 1.50% decline; the pure benzene price in East China decreased from 5,710.0 to 5,625.0 yuan/ton, a 1.49% decline; the FOB price of pure benzene in South Korea decreased from 689.6 to 673.0 dollars/ton, a 2.41% decline; the FOB price of pure benzene in the US decreased from 759.6 to 747.5 dollars/ton, a 1.59% decline; the CFR price of pure benzene in China decreased from 703.1 to 688.0 dollars/ton, a 2.15% decline [4] - The spread between domestic pure benzene and CFR increased from -317.9 to -276.2 yuan/ton, a 13.11% increase; the spread between pure benzene in East China and Shandong decreased from -190.0 to -225.0 yuan/ton, an 18.42% decline [4] - Brent crude increased from 58.9 to 59.5 dollars/ton, a 1.00% increase; WTI crude increased from 62.7 to 63.3 dollars/ton, a 0.94% increase; naphtha remained unchanged at 7,411.5 yuan/ton [4] Group 5: Industrial Chain Data Monitoring - Production and Inventory - From October 3 to 10, 2025, the styrene production in China increased from 33.6 to 34.8 tons, a 3.32% increase; the pure benzene production in China increased from 45.7 to 46.0 tons, a 0.70% increase [5] - The styrene port inventory in Jiangsu increased from 19.8 to 20.2 tons, a 2.23% increase; the domestic styrene factory inventory decreased from 20.3 to 19.4 tons, a 4.63% decline; the national pure benzene port inventory decreased from 10.6 to 9.1 tons, a 14.15% decline [5] Group 6: Industrial Chain Data Monitoring - Operating Rates - From October 3 to 10, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of styrene among pure benzene downstream increased from 71.2% to 73.6%, a 2.37% increase; the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam remained unchanged at 96.0%; the capacity utilization rate of phenol decreased from 78.7% to 78.3%, a 0.34% decline; the capacity utilization rate of aniline increased from 76.0% to 77.2%, a 1.12% increase [6] - Among styrene downstream, the EPS capacity utilization rate decreased from 43.1% to 40.7%, a 2.37% decline; the ABS capacity utilization rate increased from 71.0% to 72.5%, a 1.50% increase; the PS capacity utilization rate decreased from 56.3% to 54.6%, a 1.70% decline [6] Group 7: Industry News - OPEC+ production in September increased by 400,000 barrels per day month-on-month, with Saudi Arabia contributing an increase of 320,000 barrels per day. After the resumption of oil exports from the Iraqi Kurdistan region, production in October may further recover [7] - US refineries entered autumn maintenance, and refined oil demand declined seasonally. EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories increased by 3.7 million barrels last week, exceeding expectations [7] - Israel and Hamas reached a ceasefire agreement, the tense situation in the Middle East eased, and the geopolitical premium of crude oil continued to subside [7] Group 8: Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on pure benzene price, styrene price, styrene - pure benzene spread, SM import pure benzene cost vs. domestic pure benzene cost, styrene port inventory, styrene factory inventory, pure benzene port inventory, ABS inventory, aniline weekly capacity utilization rate, caprolactam weekly capacity utilization rate, and phenol weekly capacity utilization rate [8][12][15]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Short - term: Oil prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom due to the tug - of - war between geopolitical risk premiums and macro - pressures, along with low - inventory support [4]. - Medium - to - long - term: The expected supply surplus after 2026 and the acceleration of energy transformation will suppress the upward space of oil prices, increasing the downward risk [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary a. Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes - **Prices**: On October 14, 2025, the SC crude oil main contract closed at 453.7 yuan/barrel, continuing to decline. WTI and Brent closed at $59.14/barrel and $63.39/barrel respectively, rebounding slightly but still in a downward channel. The SC - Brent spread narrowed significantly to $0.22/barrel, and the Brent - WTI spread widened to $4.25/barrel. The SC continuous - third contract spread maintained a shallow discount of - 1.8 yuan/barrel [2]. - **Positions and Trading Volume**: On October 14, the warehouse receipt data of energy and chemical products showed that the warehouse receipts of medium - sulfur crude oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and fuel oil were all flat compared with the previous day, indicating no significant delivery pressure in the market [2]. b. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply**: Multiple institutions warned of a supply surplus. In 2026, the global oil supply surplus may reach 2 million barrels per day, mainly due to the production increase of non - OPEC+ countries and the continuous release of traditional production capacity. India's imports of Russian crude oil decreased by 14.2% year - on - year in September, but Reliance Industries' imports increased by 7.5% month - on - month. The EU plans to ban Russian LNG imports by 2027, with limited short - term impact on crude oil supply and demand [3]. - **Demand**: Refinery profits were polarized. Taishan Petroleum's net profit in the first three quarters increased by 87% - 125% year - on - year, but the demand side of refined oil was still suppressed by macro - pressures. The current market was not in a surplus state, and short - term demand remained resilient [3]. - **Inventory**: Global crude oil inventories remained low, with no signs of inventory accumulation in US commercial crude oil and Cushing inventories. The warehouse receipts of crude oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed no significant changes. Geopolitical conflicts still had a marginal supporting effect on prices [3]. c. Price Trend Judgment - Short - term: Oil prices may continue to oscillate widely due to the tug - of - war between geopolitical risk premiums and macro - pressures, along with low - inventory support [4]. - Long - term: The expected supply surplus after 2026 and the acceleration of energy transformation will suppress the upward space of oil prices [4]. 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring a. Crude Oil - **Futures Prices**: On October 14, 2025, SC crude oil futures prices decreased by 1.12% to 448.60 yuan/barrel, WTI decreased by 2.32% to $58.18/barrel, and Brent decreased by 1.75% to $62.28/barrel [6]. - **Spot Prices**: Most spot prices of crude oil decreased, with the Oman spot price decreasing by 1.54% to $63.26/barrel, and the Shengli spot price decreasing by 1.85% to $59.48/barrel [6]. - **Spreads**: The SC - Brent spread increased by 145.45% to $0.54/barrel, the SC - WTI spread increased by 14.57% to $4.64/barrel, and the Brent - WTI spread increased by 7.05% to $4.10/barrel [6]. - **Other Assets**: The US dollar index decreased by 0.21% to 99.04, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.16% to 6,644.31 points, and the DAX index decreased by 0.62% to 24,236.94 points [6]. - **Inventory and Production**: US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 0.89% to 42,026.10 million barrels, Cushing inventories decreased by 3.25% to 2,270.40 million barrels, and the US refinery weekly operating rate increased by 1.09% to 92.40% [6]. b. Fuel Oil - **Futures Prices**: On October 14, 2025, FU futures prices decreased by 1.35% to 2,700.00 yuan/ton, LU decreased by 0.90% to 3,203.00 yuan/ton, and NYMEX fuel oil decreased by 2.24% to 220.08 cents/gallon [7]. - **Spot Prices**: Some spot prices of fuel oil increased, with the 180CST marine fuel FOB price in Singapore increasing by 2.26% to $389.19/ton, and the 380CST marine fuel FOB price in Singapore increasing by 1.64% to $379.95/ton [7]. - **Paper Prices**: The high - sulfur 180 Singapore (near - month) paper price decreased by 2.87% to $369.66/ton, and the high - sulfur 380 Singapore (near - month) paper price decreased by 2.53% to $364.37/ton [7]. - **Spreads**: The Singapore high - low sulfur spread decreased by 12.09% to $56.30/ton, and the Chinese high - low sulfur spread increased by 1.62% to 503.00 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations a. Supply - Multiple institutions warned of a supply surplus. Western Petroleum executives predicted that US oil supply would peak between 2027 and 2030, and the petroleum business heads of Trafigura Group and Gunvor Group both mentioned that a supply surplus was imminent [8]. - Spain's natural gas network operator said it was ready to implement the EU's Russian LNG ban if it was advanced to 2027 [9]. - India's imports of Russian crude oil decreased by 14.2% year - on - year in September, but Reliance Industries' imports increased by 7.5% month - on - month [9]. b. Demand - India's Ministry of External Affairs predicted that the Mongolian refinery funded by India would be put into operation in 2028 [10]. - Taishan Petroleum's net profit in the first three quarters of 2025 was expected to increase by 87% - 125% year - on - year, with increased sales of high - margin products [10]. c. Inventory - Gunvor Group's CEO said that oil inventories were very low. The warehouse receipts of low - sulfur fuel oil, fuel oil, and medium - sulfur crude oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were all flat compared with the previous day [11]. d. Market Information - The market was waiting and seeing on the Gaza cease - fire agreement and Sino - US trade disputes, and crude oil prices rebounded moderately. Short - term oil markets were expected to consolidate, and medium - to - long - term oil prices faced downward risks [12]. - Multiple institutions had different forecasts for oil prices. Western Petroleum executives predicted that oil prices would rise above $62 after 2026, while Trafigura Group's petroleum business head thought that oil prices might fall further [12]. 4. Industry Chain Data Charts The report provided multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, US crude oil weekly production, OPEC crude oil production, etc., to visually display the industry chain data [13][15][17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Short - term copper prices are likely to run strongly around 85,000 yuan. Supply - side disruptions in copper mines continue, and the market's risk - aversion sentiment is high due to the potential shutdown of the US federal government. These two factors drive up the futures price, and copper prices may not decline until these factors subside [3]. - In the next week, copper prices may oscillate at a high level due to the interaction between supply shortages and demand uncertainties. It is estimated that copper prices will fluctuate between 84,000 - 86,000 yuan/ton (SHFE) and 10,500 - 11,000 US dollars/ton (LME) [35][36]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary - **Price Changes**: On October 14, the SHFE copper main - contract price dropped from 86,310 yuan/ton to 84,900 yuan/ton, while the LME copper price rebounded slightly from 10,374 US dollars/ton to 10,802 US dollars/ton. The LME (0 - 3) basis strengthened significantly, rising from - 31.19 US dollars/ton to 226.78 US dollars/ton. The domestic premium for premium copper increased from 80 yuan/ton to 150 yuan/ton, and the flat - copper changed from a discount of 5 yuan/ton to a premium of 45 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: LME inventory increased by 2,926 tons to 32,890 tons for three consecutive days of inventory accumulation. SHFE inventory decreased slightly by 50 tons to 139,350 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 1,350 short tons to 340,875 short tons [1]. 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring | Index | October 14, 2025 | October 13, 2025 | September 30, 2025 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM: 1 Copper (Premium Copper) | 86,070 yuan/ton | 85,180 yuan/ton | 86,770 yuan/ton | 890 yuan/ton | 1.04% | | SMM: 1 Copper (Flat Copper) | 20 yuan/ton | 45 yuan/ton | - 5 yuan/ton | - 25 yuan/ton | - 55.56% | | SMM: 1 Copper (Wet - Process Copper) | - 45 yuan/ton | - 45 yuan/ton | - 75 yuan/ton | 0 yuan/ton | 0.00% | | LME (0 - 3) | 55 US dollars/ton | 227 US dollars/ton | - 31 US dollars/ton | - 172 US dollars/ton | - 75.80% | | SHFE Price | 85,320 yuan/ton | 84,900 yuan/ton | 86,310 yuan/ton | 420 yuan/ton | 0.49% | | LME Price | 10,585 US dollars/ton | 10,802 US dollars/ton | 10,374 US dollars/ton | - 218 US dollars/ton | - 2.01% | | LME Inventory | 36,295 tons | 32,890 tons | 29,964 tons | 3,405 tons | 10.35% | | SHFE Inventory | 138,800 tons | 139,350 tons | 139,400 tons | - 550 tons | - 0.39% | | COMEX Inventory | 342,280 short tons | 340,875 short tons | 339,525 short tons | 1,405 short tons | 0.41% | [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **October 11**: Chile's mining authority is investigating a worker's death at BHP's Escondida copper mine, and the mine is operating normally after the incident [6]. - **October 10**: Codelco's copper production in August dropped significantly to 93,400 tons due to an accident at its El Teniente copper mine, which caused six deaths and subsequent shutdown [6]. - **October 9**: Japan's PPC expects its copper production in the second half of the 2025/26 fiscal year to decline by 2.5% year - on - year to 287,400 tons. Mitsubishi Materials Corporation will reduce the concentrate processing volume of its Onahama smelter by about 25%, equivalent to about 75,000 ore tons in the second half of the year [6]. - **October 9**: Aurubis raised the long - term premium for electrolytic copper in Europe in 2026 to 315 US dollars/ton, a record high [6]. - **October 9**: Teck Resources' Quebrada Blanca copper mine extended its shutdown due to tailings dam construction. Its 2025 copper production guidance was lowered from 210,000 - 230,000 tons to 170,000 - 190,000 tons, and the 2026 forecast production was also reduced. Highland Valley Copper also lowered its 2025 production guidance due to grade decline and maintenance needs [7]. 4. Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on China's PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, the correlation between the US interest rate and LME copper price, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper price, TC processing fees, CFTC copper positions, LME copper net - long positions, Shanghai copper warrant volume, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [8][10][12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the lithium carbonate futures price may maintain a range-bound operation. The supply increase from new capacity release and process optimization exerts downward pressure on prices, while the strong demand in the power and energy storage sectors supports inventory reduction and provides some price support. If downstream restocking accelerates or the warehouse receipt registration volume falls short of expectations, the price may test the upper limit of the range. Attention should be paid to the seasonal production reduction of salt lakes in late October and the production scheduling data of battery cell factories for guidance on supply-demand marginal changes [3] - The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to increase steadily in October, but the strong demand in the power and energy storage fields will drive the market into a significant inventory reduction phase, potentially leading to a temporary supply shortage [6] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary - **Carbonate Lithium Futures Market Data Analysis** - On October 14, the main contract of lithium carbonate closed at 72,280 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 0.8% from the previous day. The basis strengthened to 420 yuan/ton, and the premium of the spot over the futures widened [1] - The open interest of the main contract decreased for four consecutive days, dropping to 207,000 lots on October 14, and the trading volume also shrank to 282,000 lots [1] - **Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Changes** - **Supply Side**: The prices of spodumene and lepidolite concentrates remained stable at 6,370 yuan/ton and 3,400 yuan/ton respectively, providing cost support. New capacity at the salt lake end was accelerating, with the 10,000-ton lithium carbonate project of Tibet Mining's Zabuye Salt Lake officially put into production on September 24 and Tianqi Lithium's 30,000-ton lithium hydroxide project in Zhangjiagang completed. However, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate in October remained unchanged at 71.31%, possibly affected by the ramp-up of new production lines [2] - **Demand Side**: The sales of new energy vehicles maintained high growth, with the retail penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles reaching 58.5% in September. The demand for power batteries was strong, and the supply and demand in the energy storage market were both booming, supporting a 4.4% weekly increase in the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate to 71,500 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The total inventory of lithium carbonate decreased for four consecutive weeks, dropping to 135,000 physical tons on October 10, a 2.7% decrease from the end of September [2] - **Market Summary** - In the short term, the lithium carbonate futures price may maintain a range-bound operation. The supply increase from new capacity release and process optimization exerts downward pressure on prices, while the strong demand in the power and energy storage sectors supports inventory reduction and provides some price support. If downstream restocking accelerates or the warehouse receipt registration volume falls short of expectations, the price may test the upper limit of the range. Attention should be paid to the seasonal production reduction of salt lakes in late October and the production scheduling data of battery cell factories for guidance on supply-demand marginal changes [3] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On October 14, 2025, compared with October 13, 2025, the main contract of lithium carbonate increased by 400 yuan/ton to 72,680 yuan/ton, a 0.55% increase; the basis decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 220 yuan/ton, a 47.62% decrease; the open interest of the main contract decreased by 14,532 lots to 192,931 lots, a 7.00% decrease; the trading volume of the main contract decreased by 11,851 lots to 270,327 lots, a 4.20% decrease; the market price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 200 yuan/ton to 72,900 yuan/ton, a 0.28% increase; the market price of spodumene concentrate remained unchanged at 6,370 yuan/ton; the market price of lepidolite concentrate remained unchanged at 3,400 yuan/ton; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased by 2,000 yuan/ton to 73,500 yuan/ton, a 2.80% increase; the price of power ternary materials increased by 300 yuan/ton to 125,500 yuan/ton, a 0.24% increase; the price of power lithium iron phosphate remained unchanged at 33,530 yuan/ton [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market Quotations** - On October 14, the SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,007 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 72,400 - 73,600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 73,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 70,150 - 71,350 yuan/ton, with an average price of 70,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The futures price of lithium carbonate continued to fluctuate, with the center of the main contract moving up to the range of 72,400 - 74,500 yuan/ton. The psychological expectation price of downstream material factories was relatively low, and the overall trading activity in the market was average. In terms of supply, new production lines were put into operation at both the spodumene and salt lake ends, and it was expected that the total output of lithium carbonate in October would still have growth potential. In terms of demand, the new energy vehicle market in the power sector was growing rapidly in both commercial and passenger vehicles, and the supply and demand in the energy storage market were both booming. Overall, although the supply in October was increasing steadily, the strong demand in the power and energy storage fields would drive the market into a significant inventory reduction phase, and it was expected to form a temporary supply shortage [6] - **Downstream Consumption Situation** - According to preliminary statistics from the Passenger Car Association on October 11, from September 1 - 30, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles nationwide were 1.307 million, a 16% increase compared to September last year and a 17% increase compared to the previous month. The retail penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles nationwide was 58.5%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 8.878 million, a 24% increase compared to the same period last year. From September 1 - 30, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers nationwide were 1.489 million, a 21% increase compared to September last year and a 15% increase compared to the previous month. The wholesale penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers nationwide was 53.8%. The cumulative wholesale sales this year were 10.433 million, a 32% increase compared to the same period last year [7] - **Industry News** - On September 28, the latest news of EVE Energy (300014) showed that on September 20, the electromechanical equipment of its Hungary base officially entered the site, marking that the civil engineering project of the base had entered a critical stage. As an important part of EVE's global strategy, the base is positioned as the core manufacturing center of the European new energy industry, covering an area of 450,000 square meters. After completion, it will supply large cylindrical batteries to BMW Group's Debrecen factory, and it is expected to be completed in 2026, creating about 1,000 jobs [9] - On September 26, according to "Zhangjiagang Release", on September 25, Tianqi Lithium's (002466) 30,000-ton battery-grade lithium hydroxide project in Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone, Jiangsu, was completed and put into production. The project was the first project implemented and completed in Tianqi Lithium's "Five-Year Strategic Plan" and was also the second fully automated battery-grade lithium hydroxide (lithium carbonate) factory of Tianqi Lithium in Zhangjiagang. Tianqi Lithium is a global leading new energy materials enterprise centered on lithium, committed to providing sustainable lithium solutions for the global green and low-carbon energy transformation from the development and application of lithium resources to the processing of lithium products. Tianqi Lithium has 5 production bases globally, and the Zhangjiagang production base has formed an annual production capacity of 20,000 tons of battery-grade lithium carbonate [9] - On September 26, Tibet Mining's (000762.SZ) 10,000-ton lithium carbonate project at the Zabuye Salt Lake, which had been planned for four years, was officially put into production. According to the company's announcement on the same day, after full efforts, the project successfully completed a 120-hour functional assessment from September 20 - 24, 2025, marking the official operation of the project. Some industry analysts believed that the release of the project's production capacity would significantly improve the self-sufficiency rate of domestic lithium resources. Tibet Mining previously disclosed that the Zabuye Salt Lake in Tibet, where it has exclusive mining rights, is one of the world's three largest and Asia's largest lithium ore salt lakes, a special comprehensive large-scale salt lake deposit rich in lithium, boron, and potassium, with both solid and liquid phases [10] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The content mainly lists various data charts related to the lithium carbonate industry chain, including the main contract and basis of lithium carbonate futures, the prices of battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate, lithium concentrate, lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte, ternary precursor, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, the operating rate and inventory of lithium carbonate, and the selling price of battery cells, along with their data sources [11][14][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The polyester market continues to operate under pressure due to the marginal weakening of demand and inventory pressure [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 PTA & PX - On October 11, the PX main contract closed at 6,504.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a basis of -84.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 0.0 yuan/ton, down 1.09% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 0.0 yuan/ton [2]. - On the supply side, the PX plant operating rate remains relatively stable, but the expected commissioning of new plants and unplanned maintenance of some Asian factories create a mix of long and short factors, and the potential elasticity of the supply side may break the balance. The PTA industry load has rebounded to a relatively high level, and the short - term stock supply pressure has not been significantly relieved with the co - existence of plant restarts and load reductions, but the delay in the commissioning of new production capacity may ease the expectation of loose supply in the fourth quarter [2]. - On the demand side, although the polyester operating rate is at a high level, the inventory pressure of grey fabrics in the weaving end is transmitted to the polyester link. The lack of sustainability of new orders may restrict the replenishment demand for polyester raw materials. The trading volume of the Textile City has declined from the previous high, and the marginal weakening of the resilience of overseas orders and the seasonal weakening of domestic demand pose a test to the sustainability of the positive feedback in the industrial chain, and the support from the demand side may gradually decline [2]. - On the inventory side, the absolute value of PTA factory inventory is still in the low range in recent years, but the visible inventory has accumulated continuously in the past two weeks, and the weakening basis reflects insufficient spot drive. In the environment of compressed processing fees, the inventory contradiction in the industrial chain is transferred to the middle reaches. Attention should be paid to the impact of the manifestation of hidden inventory on the circulating supply, and the turning point of the inventory structure may be a signal of the price's phased inflection point [3]. 3.1.2 Polyester - On October 11, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,200.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,365.0 yuan/ton, down 5.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 165.0 yuan/ton [4]. - The MA15 trading volume of the Textile City in the demand side fluctuated narrowly in the range of 857 - 862 million meters, not continuing the upward trend in the peak season, indicating insufficient downstream replenishment momentum. The inventory structure has prominent contradictions: the inventory of polyester staple fiber is 7.58 days, significantly higher than the 5 - year average of 4.96 days, becoming the main source of inventory accumulation pressure. The polyester filament varieties show obvious differentiation, with the POY inventory of 13.6 days significantly lower than the average of 20.4 days, while the FDY/DTY is slightly higher than the historical average. It is expected that the industrial chain will continue to operate weakly. The decline of crude - oil - related varieties on the cost side and the high inventory of polyester staple fiber may drive polyester factories to increase production cut - back efforts to balance supply and demand [4]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **PX**: On October 13, 2025, the PX futures main - contract price was 6,458 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan or 0.71% from October 10. The main - contract trading volume increased by 8,467 to 109,201 lots, an increase of 8.41%, and the main - contract open interest decreased by 12,852 to 49,851 lots, a decrease of 20.50%. The South Korea FOB price of PX spot was 767 US dollars/ton, down 7 US dollars or 0.90% from October 10. The PX basis was - 120 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan or 42.86% from October 10 [5]. - **PTA**: On October 13, 2025, the PTA futures main - contract price was 4,510 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan or 0.53% from October 10. The main - contract trading volume increased by 9,456 to 603,489 lots, an increase of 1.59%, and the main - contract open interest increased by 37,917 to 1,096,302 lots, an increase of 3.58%. The PTA 1 - 5 spread was - 54 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 3.85% from October 10 [5]. - **Short - fiber**: On October 13, 2025, the short - fiber futures main - contract price was 6,166 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan or 0.55% from October 10. The main - contract trading volume decreased by 43,754 to 119,500 lots, a decrease of 26.80%, and the main - contract open interest decreased by 28,801 to 47,106 lots, a decrease of 37.94%. The PF 1 - 5 spread was - 4 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan or 85.71% from October 10 [5]. - **Other products**: The US crude oil main - contract price was 59.14 US dollars/barrel on October 13, up 0.9 US dollars or 1.55% from October 10. The ethylene glycol price was 4,060 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan or 3.10% from October 10 [5]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Macro Dynamics - On October 13, Trump's list of candidates for the Fed chair has been narrowed to five. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September CPI report at 8:30 am on October 24 (8:30 pm Beijing time). Trump said that if the Russia - Ukraine conflict cannot be resolved, the US may supply "Tomahawk" missiles to Ukraine [7]. - On October 10, the central bank of the Democratic Republic of the Congo will start building gold reserves when the gold price soars. Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts: Williams supports further interest - rate cuts, while Barr believes that interest - rate cuts should be cautious, and Kashkari basically agrees with Barr [7]. 3.3.2 Supply - Demand - Demand - On October 11, the total trading volume of the Textile City was 9.04 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 8.65%. The trading volume of long - fiber fabrics was 6.75 million meters, and that of short - fiber fabrics was 2.31 million meters [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core View of the Report The supply surplus expectation has been significantly strengthened, and oil prices have broken through the support level and declined. In the short term, oil prices are expected to oscillate and bottom out, while in the medium term, there is still downward pressure. The ample idle capacity of OPEC+ and the restricted exports from Russia offset each other on the supply side, and the marginal boosting effect of geopolitical conflicts on oil prices has weakened. On the demand side, the increase in China's imports and OPEC's upward revision of demand expectations provide support, but the escalation of Sino-US trade disputes and concerns about the global economic slowdown suppress risk appetite. Technically, WTI and Brent may enter an oscillatory range after rebounding from the low level, but the insufficient inventory reduction and the expectation of future surplus may limit the rebound height [2][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Daily Market Summary 1. Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes Analysis - On October 13, WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices continued to decline, closing at $58.24/barrel and $62.09/barrel respectively. The SC crude oil futures price also dropped to 461.9 yuan/barrel. The spreads between domestic and foreign markets widened, with the SC-Brent spread rising to $2.75/barrel (from $0.88/barrel the previous day) and the SC-WTI spread expanding to $6.6/barrel (from $4.59/barrel the previous day), indicating that the decline of domestic crude oil futures was relatively smaller than that of foreign markets. The Brent-WTI spread strengthened slightly to $3.85/barrel, suggesting a relatively tight supply-demand structure in the European market. The SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread remained in a contango structure (-2.3 yuan/barrel), implying pressure on near-term contracts [2]. 2. Industrial Chain Supply and Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: In September, the oil exports of the Caspian Pipeline increased by 9% month-on-month to 6.6 million tons. Saudi Aramco reiterated that its maximum sustainable production capacity is 12 million barrels per day, and the production cost is only $3/barrel, indicating that the core OPEC+ oil-producing countries still have flexible production-increasing capabilities. However, due to the refinery attacks in Russia, its refined oil exports in September decreased by 17.1% month-on-month to 7.58 million tons, which may indirectly limit its crude oil processing volume. The drone attack on the Crimean oil terminal by Ukraine has intensified the supply disruption risk in the Black Sea region [3]. - **Demand Side**: The OPEC monthly report raised the global crude oil demand growth forecast for 2025 to 1.3 million barrels per day (previously 1.29 million barrels per day) and maintained the growth expectation of 1.38 million barrels per day for 2026. The CEO of Saudi Aramco said that the demand growth will be strong in the next two years (1.2 - 1.4 million barrels per day in 2025). China's net oil imports in October increased by 370,000 barrels per day month-on-month to 12.46 million barrels per day [4]. - **Inventory Side**: The fuel oil futures warehouse receipts decreased by 31,990 tons to 45,800 tons in a single day, which may reflect the rising demand for refinery pick-up. The warehouse receipts of crude oil and low-sulfur fuel oil remained unchanged, indicating limited short-term delivery willingness. The US commercial crude oil data has not been updated, and attention should be paid to the subsequent EIA report [5]. 3. Price Trend Judgment - In the short term, oil prices will oscillate and bottom out, while in the medium term, there is still downward pressure. The ample idle capacity of OPEC+ (stable Saudi production capacity) and the restricted exports from Russia offset each other on the supply side, and the marginal boosting effect of geopolitical conflicts (Black Sea, Middle East) on oil prices has weakened. On the demand side, the increase in China's imports and OPEC's upward revision of demand expectations provide support, but the escalation of Sino-US trade disputes (the Indian delegation's visit to the US for negotiations) and concerns about the global economic slowdown suppress risk appetite. Technically, WTI and Brent may enter an oscillatory range after rebounding from the low level, but the insufficient inventory reduction and the expectation of future surplus may limit the rebound height [6]. II. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring 1. Crude Oil - **Futures Prices**: On October 13, the SC futures price was 453.70 yuan/barrel, down 8.20 yuan or 1.78% from October 10; the WTI futures price was $59.14/barrel, up $0.90 or 1.55%; the Brent futures price was $63.39/barrel, up $1.30 or 2.09%. - **Spot Prices**: The OPEC basket price remained unchanged at $65.33/barrel. The Brent spot price decreased by $0.70 to $64.35/barrel, a decline of 1.08%. The Oman spot price dropped by $1.35 to $64.25/barrel, a decrease of 2.06%. The Shengli spot price fell by $1.73 to $60.60/barrel, a decline of 2.78%. The Dubai spot price decreased by $1.41 to $63.64/barrel, a decrease of 2.17%. The ESPO spot price dropped by $1.21 to $59.22/barrel, a decrease of 2.00%. The Duri spot price fell by $1.60 to $64.07/barrel, a decline of 2.44%. - **Spreads**: The SC-Brent spread decreased by $2.53 to $0.22/barrel, a decline of 92.00%. The SC-WTI spread decreased by $2.13 to $4.47/barrel, a decline of 32.27%. The Brent-WTI spread increased by $0.40 to $4.25/barrel, an increase of 10.39%. The SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread increased by 0.50 yuan to -1.80 yuan/barrel, an increase of 21.74%. - **Other Assets**: The US dollar index increased by 0.41 to 99.24, an increase of 0.41%. The S&P 500 index increased by 102.21 points to 6,654.72, an increase of 1.56%. The DAX index increased by 146.47 points to 24,387.93, an increase of 0.60%. The RMB exchange rate increased by 0.01 to 7.13, an increase of 0.14%. - **Inventory and开工率**: The US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 3.715 million barrels to 420.261 million barrels, an increase of 0.89%. The Cushing inventory decreased by 0.763 million barrels to 22.704 million barrels, a decrease of 3.25%. The US strategic reserve inventory increased by 0.0285 million barrels to 406.985 million barrels, an increase of 0.07%. The API inventory increased by 2.78 million barrels to 443.559 million barrels, an increase of 0.63%. The US refinery weekly operating rate increased by 1.00 percentage points to 92.40%, an increase of 1.09%. The US refinery crude oil processing volume increased by 0.129 million barrels per day to 16.297 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.80% [8]. 2. Fuel Oil - **Futures Prices**: On October 13, the FU futures price was 2,737 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan or 1.58% from October 10; the LU futures price was 3,232 yuan/ton, down 64 yuan or 1.94%. The NYMEX fuel oil price was 225.12 cents/gallon, up 5.82 cents or 2.65%. - **Spot Prices**: The prices of IF0380 in Singapore and Rotterdam, MD0 in Singapore, MDO in Rotterdam, MGO in Singapore, 180CST marine fuel in Singapore FOB, 380Cst marine fuel in Singapore FOB, 0.5% low-sulfur marine fuel in Singapore FOB, and high-sulfur 180 in East China remained unchanged. The Russian M100 arrival price decreased by $10 to $439/ton, a decrease of 2.23%. - **Paper Prices**: The prices of high-sulfur 180 and high-sulfur 380 in Singapore (near - term) remained unchanged. - **Spreads**: The Singapore high - low sulfur spread remained unchanged at $64.89/ton. The Chinese high - low sulfur spread decreased by 20 yuan to 495 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.88%. The LU - Singapore FOB (0.5%S) spread decreased by 64 yuan to -1,938 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.42%. The FU - Singapore 380CST spread decreased by 44 yuan to -1,897 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.37%. - **Platts and Inventory**: The Platts (380CST) price decreased by $28.75 to $382.29/ton, a decrease of 6.99%. The Platts (180CST) price decreased by $35.38 to $382.60/ton, a decrease of 8.46%. The Singapore inventory decreased by 0.892 million tons to 23.669 million tons, a decrease of 3.63% [9]. III. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 1. Supply - On October 13, according to the OPEC monthly report, China's net imports of petroleum products increased by 370,000 barrels per day to 12.46 million barrels per day compared with the previous statistics. - On October 13, sources said that the oil exports of the Caspian Pipeline in September increased by 9% month-on-month to 6.6 million tons. - On October 13, affected by the drone attacks on multiple refineries, Russia's seaborne exports of refined oil in September decreased by 17.1% compared with August to 7.58 million tons. - On October 13, the CEO of Saudi Aramco said that the production cost of oil is $2 per barrel of oil equivalent, and that of natural gas is $1 per barrel of oil equivalent, with a total of $3 per barrel of oil equivalent. - On October 13, the CEO of Saudi Aramco said that the maximum sustainable (crude oil) production capacity is 12 million barrels per day and can be maintained for one year without any additional cost [10][11]. 2. Demand - The OPEC monthly report predicts that the global crude oil demand in 2026 will be 107.87 million barrels per day, and in 2025 will be 106.57 million barrels per day. - The OPEC monthly report predicts that the average daily demand for OPEC+ crude oil in the world in 2026 will be 43.1 million barrels (unchanged from last month). - The OPEC monthly report predicts that the global oil demand in 2025 will increase by 1.3 million barrels per day (previously predicted to be 1.29 million barrels per day), and maintains the forecast of a 1.38 million barrels per day increase in global oil demand in 2026. - On October 13, the CEO of Saudi Aramco, Amin Nasser, said that driven by the growth of developing countries, the global oil demand is expected to remain strong this year and next year. - The CEO of Saudi Aramco said that the oil demand will increase by about 1.1 - 1.3 million barrels per day this year and 1.2 - 1.4 million barrels per day next year, and that the oil demand is resilient and the growth potential in the oil field is still huge [12]. 3. Inventory - The medium - sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts were 5.401 million barrels, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day. - The low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse futures warehouse receipts were 13,080 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day. - The fuel oil futures warehouse receipts were 45,800 tons, decreasing by 31,990 tons from the previous trading day [13]. 4. Market Information - In the short term, the sentiment in the crude oil market remains fragile, but the overseas WTI and Brent crude oils have shown a technical rebound from the low level. Coupled with the partial release of previous negative factors such as tariff disturbances and government shutdowns, the further downward space for oil prices is limited. It is recommended to adopt a low - level oscillatory mindset for the time being. - An Indian official said on Monday that the Indian trade delegation will visit the US this week, and the two sides are working hard to reach an agreement before the autumn deadline. - Ukrainian drones attacked a Crimean oil terminal at night. - The cooling of the Gaza situation and the signs of intensified Sino - US trade disputes by Trump have attracted market attention. International oil prices dropped by 4% in a single day last Friday. At present, the situation in Eastern Europe remains stalemate, and the supply concerns caused by the Iranian nuclear issue still persist, which support the oil market. However, the escalation of trade disputes has increased economic concerns, and the prospect of supply surplus also exerts pressure on the oil market. With the combination of long and short news, the oil market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term and face downward risks in the medium and long term [14]. IV. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, the spread statistics between SC and WTI, the US weekly crude oil production, the number of oil rigs in the US and Canada (Baker Hughes), the number of oil rigs in various regions around the world (Baker Hughes), the US refinery weekly operating rate, the US refinery crude oil processing volume (4 - week moving average), the US weekly net crude oil imports (4 - week moving average), the actual capacity utilization rate of Japanese refineries, the operating rate of Shandong local refineries (atmospheric and vacuum distillation), China's monthly refined oil production (gasoline, diesel, kerosene), the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves), the US Cushing crude oil inventory, the US strategic crude oil inventory, the fuel oil futures price trend, the Singapore high - low sulfur spread, the international port IFO380 spot price, the Chinese high - low sulfur spread, the cross - regional high - low sulfur spread, and the fuel oil inventory [15][17][19].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint The current copper market is influenced by the resonance of the US government shutdown - driven risk - aversion demand and the supply shortage caused by the Indonesian mine accident. Copper prices are fluctuating around 85,000. Before these two factors reverse, it is not advisable to easily short copper prices. Although the tariff issue has re - emerged, the "TACO" trading logic still holds, and there is a possibility of a repeat of the Qingming Festival market. For the future market, the current price is high, but shorting should not be done lightly. If one wants to participate, a small - position long - term allocation can be considered [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Electrolytic Copper Market Price - **1.1 Electrolytic Copper Upstream Market Price**: The Indonesian mine accident has continuously pushed up the ore price. Charts show the market price of 20% copper concentrate, TC price, refined - scrap copper spot price, and copper import profit [7][9][11]. - **1.2 Electrolytic Copper Futures and Spot Market Price**: The mine accident has become the dominant factor. Charts display the Shanghai copper futures - spot price, Yangshan Free Trade Zone premium to LME, and foreign copper futures prices [14][16][18]. - **1.3 Outer - Market Copper Position Data**: Overseas long - position speculation has continued to increase. Charts present overseas exchange inventory, LME copper warehouse receipt composition, LME copper fund position, and COMEX copper non - commercial position [19][20][24]. 3.2 Electrolytic Copper Production and Inventory - **2.1 Electrolytic Copper Upstream Supply**: Charts show the net import volume of copper concentrate, electrolytic copper, and scrap copper [29][30][31]. - **2.2 Electrolytic Copper Production and Inventory**: Charts display the monthly production and operating rate of electrolytic copper, production cost and profit, and weekly inventory [34][35][36]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Data and Downstream Consumption - **3.1 US Dollar Index and US Treasury Yield**: Charts show the US dollar index, US Treasury yield spread, US Treasury yield, and the relationship between the US benchmark interest rate and inflation [42][43][45]. - **3.2 US Economic Data**: Charts present US employment data, market confidence index, social retail sales, and inventory data [51][52][53]. - **3.3 Chinese Economic Data**: In July, new loans turned negative, and the PMI was slightly above the boom - bust line. Charts show China's M1, M2 growth rate, new RMB loans, manufacturing PMI, and other data [59][60][64]. - **3.4 Chinese Copper Downstream Consumption Data**: The power grid and new energy sectors provide support. Charts show the monthly demand for electrolytic copper, copper foil operating rate, terminal production growth rate, and fixed - asset investment growth rate [71][72][73].

Report Title - Energy Chemicals Pure Benzene & Styrene Daily Report [1] Report Date - October 14, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The mismatch between supply and demand continues, and benzene and styrene are oscillating at low levels [1] - The pure benzene market continues its weak oscillating trend, and the styrene market is under pressure from both cost and demand ends [2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamental Analysis - **Price**: On October 13, the styrene main contract closed down 0.79% at 6,690 yuan/ton, with a basis of 15 (-17 tons); the pure benzene main contract closed down 0.91% at 5,682 yuan/ton [2] - **Cost**: On October 13, Brent crude oil closed at $58.9/barrel (-$2.6/barrel), WTI crude oil closed at $62.7/barrel (-$2.5/barrel), and the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5,710 yuan/ton (-25 yuan/ton) [2] - **Inventory**: Styrene port inventory was 202,000 tons (+40,000 tons), a 2.2% increase; pure benzene port inventory was 91,000 tons (-15,000 tons), a 14.2% decrease [2] - **Supply**: Styrene maintenance devices are returning, with weekly production at 348,000 tons (+110,000 tons) and a plant capacity utilization rate of 73.6% (+2.4%) [2] - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rates of downstream 3S devices vary. EPS is 40.7% (-2.4%), ABS is 72.5% (+1.5%), and PS is 54.6% (-1.7%) [2] (2) Views - **Pure Benzene**: The overall supply has increased slightly, and downstream demand has also risen, but the overall supply - demand pattern has not improved significantly. The inventory in East China ports has decreased slightly, but the absolute inventory level remains high. The processing profit of petroleum benzene is low, and short - term demand is difficult to improve substantially [2] - **Styrene**: The market was weak last week, with supply increasing and demand weak. Inventory pressure has eased but remains high. Cost has decreased, but profit repair is limited. In the short term, production is expected to increase slightly, and the supply - demand mismatch may intensify [3] 2. Industry Chain Data Monitoring (1) Price Data - Styrene futures and spot prices both declined, with the basis dropping 53.13% [5] - Pure benzene futures and East China spot prices decreased, while international prices remained stable. The internal - CFR spread of pure benzene decreased by 6.69%, and the East China - Shandong spread increased by 11.63% [5] - Upstream crude oil and naphtha prices declined [5] (2) Production and Inventory Data - Styrene production in China increased by 3.32% to 348,000 tons, and pure benzene production increased by 0.70% to 460,000 tons [6] - Styrene port inventory in Jiangsu increased by 2.23% to 202,000 tons, and factory inventory decreased by 4.63% to 194,000 tons. Pure benzene port inventory nationwide decreased by 14.15% to 91,000 tons [6] (3) Capacity Utilization Data - Among pure benzene downstream, the capacity utilization rates of styrene and aniline increased, while that of phenol decreased slightly. Among styrene downstream, the capacity utilization rates of ABS increased, while those of EPS and PS decreased [7] 3. Industry News - OPEC+ production increased by 400,000 barrels per day in September, with Saudi Arabia contributing 320,000 barrels per day. Iraqi Kurdistan's oil exports restarted, and production may further recover in October [8] - US refineries entered autumn maintenance, and refined oil demand declined seasonally. US crude oil inventory increased by 3.7 million barrels last week [8] - Israel and Hamas reached a cease - fire agreement, easing tensions in the Middle East and reducing the geopolitical premium on crude oil [8] 4. Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on pure benzene price, styrene price, styrene - pure benzene spread, etc. [9][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The PX and PTA markets are maintaining a downward trend due to weakened cost support and increasing demand pressure, and the polyester industry chain is expected to continue facing pressure [1][2][3][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 PTA & PX - On October 10, the PX main contract closed at 6,504.0 yuan/ton, down 1.25% from the previous trading day, with a basis of -84.0 yuan/ton; the PTA main contract closed at 4,534.0 yuan/ton, down 1.09% from the previous trading day, with a basis of -44.0 yuan/ton [2] - The supply pressure of PX and PTA may increase marginally in the short term. The continuous decline in crude oil prices may suppress PX processing fees, triggering some high - cost devices to reduce production. The resumption of some short - stopped PTA devices and the weakening of cost support may lead to a further decline in prices [2] - The demand drive of the polyester industry chain is weak. The decline in light textile city trading volume and the seasonal weakening of the terminal textile industry may lead to a reduction in polyester factory operating rates and a lack of continuous demand support for PTA [3] - The probability of marginal accumulation of PTA factory inventory has increased. The weakening demand and high supply may slow down inventory consumption, and the negative basis reflects weak trader purchasing willingness. If inventory accumulation is confirmed, it will drive down the futures price [3] 3.1.2 Polyester - On October 10, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,200.0 yuan/ton, down 1.46% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,370.0 yuan/ton, down 35.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 170.0 yuan/ton [4] - Most polyester varieties are facing inventory accumulation pressure. The weakening prices of PX/PTA at the cost end, seasonal weakening of downstream demand, and high inventory may continue to put pressure on the industry chain, but the possibility of PTA device maintenance after processing fee compression needs to be watched [4] 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: The main contract price decreased by 1.25%, trading volume decreased by 5.96%, and open interest decreased by 7.04%. PX spot prices in the Chinese main port and South Korea also declined [5] - PTA futures: The main contract price decreased by 1.09%, trading volume increased by 5.69%, and open interest increased by 4.77%. PTA spot prices and some spreads changed, and import profit increased [5] - Short - fiber futures: The main contract price decreased by 1.46%, trading volume increased by 55.62%, and open interest decreased by 16.66%. Short - fiber spot prices declined, and some spreads changed [5] - Other industrial chain prices: Crude oil, naphtha, and most polyester product prices changed, and some processing spreads also changed. The trading volume in the light textile city increased, and the load rates of PTA factories, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged. The inventory days of some polyester products changed [5][6] 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Macro Dynamics - On October 10, the central bank of the Democratic Republic of the Congo plans to establish gold reserves when the gold price soars; there are different views within the Fed on interest rate cuts; the US Bureau of Labor Statistics recalls some employees to compile the CPI report [7] - On October 9, the Fed's September meeting minutes showed internal division among officials and a cautious hint of further interest rate cuts this year; last week, US EIA crude oil inventories increased more than expected [7] 3.3.2 Supply - Demand (Demand) - On October 10, the total trading volume in the light textile city was 832.0 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 22.35%, with 629.0 million meters of long - fiber fabric trading volume and 205.0 million meters of short - fiber fabric trading volume [8] 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts related to PX, PTA, short - fiber futures and spot prices, basis, spreads, processing profits, capacity utilization, load rates, trading volume, and inventory days [9][11][13][15][17][19][22][24][25][26][27][28] 3.5 Appendix (Analysis of Future Price Trends) - Supply side: The operating rates of PX and PTA devices are crucial. The decline in crude oil prices may put pressure on PX costs, and high PTA operating rates may increase supply and suppress prices [35] - Demand side: The operating rate of polyester and the trading volume in the light textile city are important. The decline in trading volume may indicate weakening demand, and a decrease in polyester operating rates may reduce PTA demand [35] - Inventory side: Although there is no specific inventory data, if demand weakens and supply increases, inventory may accumulate, which is unfavorable for prices [35]