Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overseas, rumors of Trump dismissing Powell led to a "triple kill" in the US stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets, followed by a resurgence of the TACO trade. The US June PPI同比 dropped to 2.3%, hitting a nearly one - year low. Trump insists on a 25% tariff on Japan and is promoting an agreement with India, while the EU is preparing a 72 - billion - euro retaliatory list [2]. - Domestically, Li Qiang chaired the State Council Executive Meeting to study key policy measures for strengthening the domestic cycle, promote consumption, and standardize the new energy vehicle industry. A - shares are in a shrinking adjustment, and the bond market is under pressure. The short - term is expected to continue to fluctuate and adjust [3]. - Due to the intensifying rumors of a change in the Fed's leadership and geopolitical tensions, precious metals are expected to show a volatile and upward - biased pattern, and silver prices are expected to perform well in the future [4][5]. - For copper, overseas spot tightness has eased. With factors such as price increases and cost pressures from tariffs, and some mine production increases, both Lun copper and Shanghai copper are expected to fluctuate in the short term [6][7]. - Aluminum prices are in a volatile adjustment. With the increase in ingot production and the arrival of the consumption off - season, the short - term is expected to remain weak [8][9]. - Alumina is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and there is still significant medium - to - long - term supply pressure [10]. - Zinc prices are in a narrow - range fluctuation. With weak fundamentals and limited short - selling power from funds, they are expected to run weakly in the short term [11]. - Lead prices are affected by the tariff on exported batteries and are in a weak state. Although supply tightening may provide some support, they are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [12][13]. - Tin prices are affected by macro factors and have large intraday fluctuations. With limited fundamental changes, they are expected to maintain a wide - range fluctuation in the short term [14]. - Industrial silicon is expected to run strongly and fluctuate in the short term under the impetus of new policies, despite weak demand in some downstream industries [15][16]. - Lithium carbonate prices are fluctuating. Affected by mine - end disturbances, they are in a strong state in the short term, but may return to fundamentals in the future [17][18]. - Nickel prices are fluctuating. With the easing of the shortage of nickel ore in Indonesia and the weakening of cost pressure, they are expected to be affected by tariff disturbances in the short term [19]. - Crude oil prices are fluctuating. The uncertainty of the Israel - Iran conflict makes it advisable to wait and see [20]. - Steel futures are in a high - level volatile state. Policy expectations boost the market, but fundamentals are weak, and demand is expected to remain weak [21][22]. - Iron ore futures are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. Macro sentiment is positive, but iron water production is expected to remain weak [23]. - Bean and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. The US - Indonesia agreement improves export expectations, but bean meal inventory is increasing [24]. - Palm oil is expected to fluctuate and adjust. Malaysian palm oil production increased in the first half of July, while demand decreased [25][26]. Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Metal Main Varieties Yesterday's Trading Data - The table shows the closing data of major metal futures contracts, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, gold, silver, etc., including closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, and open interest [27]. 2. Industrial Data Perspective - For copper, data such as SHFE and LME copper prices, inventory, spot quotes, and spreads are presented, showing changes from July 11th to July 14th [28]. - For nickel, similar data including SHFE and LME nickel prices, inventory, and spreads are provided, indicating changes during the same period [28]. - Similar data for zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and bean and rapeseed meal are also presented, reflecting their price and inventory changes [28][30][31][32][33][34][35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, mild CPI data boosted market sentiment, while tariff risks continued to affect expectations. The market digested the probability of no rate cut in July and a 54% probability of a rate cut in September. In China, the Q2 GDP exceeded expectations at 5.2%, but structural issues persisted, with production being strong and demand weakening. The Central Urban Work Conference emphasized the medium - to long - term real estate direction [2][3]. - For precious metals, silver prices are in short - term adjustment, but the upward trend remains unchanged. Copper is expected to enter a short - term shock, with Shanghai copper stabilizing and waiting for new drivers. Aluminum prices are in shock adjustment due to the consumption off - season. Alumina is in a strong shock. Zinc prices are weakly oscillating due to the cooling of rate - cut and policy expectations. Lead prices are dragged down by LME inventory increases. Tin prices are oscillating due to macro - and micro - level factors. Industrial silicon is expected to continue to rebound. Lithium carbonate prices are oscillating. Nickel prices are oscillating without clear guidance. Crude oil prices are oscillating due to geopolitical risks. Steel futures are oscillating downward. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate in the short term. Bean and rapeseed meal may oscillate strongly. Palm oil may enter an oscillating adjustment phase [4][6][8][10][11][13][15][16][18][20][21][22][24][25][28]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - **Overseas**: In June, the US CPI was lower than expected, with the core CPI at 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. The US reduced tariffs on Indonesia to 19%, and the US Treasury Secretary stated that China - US tariff negotiations were progressing smoothly. The dollar index was above 98.5, the 10Y US Treasury yield approached 4.5%, the US stock market opened high and closed low, gold prices rose and then fell, and copper and oil prices oscillated [2]. - **Domestic**: Q2 GDP exceeded expectations at 5.2%, but structural issues remained. Industrial added value in June was much higher than expected, while investment weakened across the board, the real estate market was sluggish, and social retail sales were lower than expected. After the data release, the bond market rose, and the A - share market adjusted. The Central Urban Work Conference emphasized the medium - to long - term real estate direction [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - International precious metal futures continued to correct on Tuesday. COMEX gold futures fell 0.85% to $3330.50 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 1.95% to $37.99 per ounce. Silver prices are in short - term adjustment, but the upward trend remains unchanged [4]. 3.3 Base Metals - **Copper**: Shanghai copper's main contract stopped falling and stabilized. The LME copper price was seeking support at the $9600 level. The domestic inflation transmission process was slow, and it is expected that the inflation pressure in the US will increase significantly in July - August. China's GDP growth in the first half of the year exceeded expectations, and the market is expected to enter a short - term shock [6][7]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum's main contract closed at 20430 yuan/ton, down 0.02%. The market is in the consumption off - season, and aluminum prices are in shock adjustment [8]. - **Alumina**: Alumina futures' main contract closed at 3165 yuan/ton, up 1.22%. The spot market is in a strong shock [10]. - **Zinc**: Shanghai zinc's main contract oscillated weakly. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut has cooled, and zinc prices are weakly oscillating [11][12]. - **Lead**: Shanghai lead's main contract fell during the day and rebounded at night. LME inventory increased significantly, dragging down Shanghai lead prices. The short - term downward trend is expected to slow down [13][14]. - **Tin**: Shanghai tin's main contract first rose and then fell during the day and stabilized at night. Macro - and micro - level factors are in a stalemate, and tin prices are oscillating [15]. 3.4 Other Metals and Minerals - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon continued to rebound. The supply side is in a tight state, and with the boost of new policies, it is expected to continue to rebound [16][17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate futures oscillated widely, and the spot price rose slightly. Policy - related disturbances have not materialized, and lithium prices are oscillating [18][19]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices oscillated widely. Core inflation rose but was lower than expected. The cost side is expected to decline, and nickel prices are oscillating without clear guidance [20]. 3.5 Energy - Crude oil prices were weakly operating. Geopolitical risks may rise again, and the market is in shock. Investors should be cautious and wait and see in the short term [21]. 3.6 Steel - Steel futures oscillated downward. The Central Urban Work Conference did not meet expectations, and the demand is weak. Steel prices are expected to adjust [22][23]. 3.7 Iron Ore - Iron ore futures oscillated at a high level. The supply and demand are in a weak balance, and iron ore prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [24]. 3.8 Agricultural Products - **Bean and Rapeseed Meal**: US soybean crushing volume in June was higher than expected, and the weather in the producing areas is good. The market may oscillate strongly [25][26]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil export demand declined in the first half of July. Palm oil may enter an oscillating adjustment phase [27][28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, Trump's tariff pressure is escalating, leading to games among countries in negotiation, counter - measures, and buffering. Domestically, China's June economic data is better than expected, with exports and imports improving and the trade surplus expanding. A - shares rose with reduced volume, and the bond market is in a short - term shock [2][3]. - Precious metals: Gold is in shock, while silver has started a catch - up rally, and it is expected that the catch - up rally of silver will continue [4][5]. - Copper: The LME's visible inventory has increased, and Lun copper is under pressure at high levels. It is expected that the short - term market will maintain a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic, and Shanghai copper will continue to adjust downward [6][7]. - Aluminum: The social inventory of aluminum has increased significantly, and Shanghai aluminum has reduced positions and adjusted. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the sustainability of inventory accumulation [8][9]. - Alumina: There is no obvious supply - demand contradiction, and alumina will maintain a shock [10]. - Zinc: With the macro and micro factors in a tug - of - war, zinc prices will oscillate at a low level [11]. - Lead: Near the delivery of the current - month contract, inventory pressure suppresses the price trend. After the delivery factor is removed, lead prices are expected to rise with the recovery of consumption [12][13]. - Tin: The supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is limited, and tin prices will oscillate [14]. - Industrial silicon: Driven by new policies, the futures price is expected to maintain a strong shock in the short term [15][16]. - Lithium carbonate: The impact of mine - end disturbances is limited, and lithium prices will oscillate. It is necessary to pay attention to the development of the Yichang lithium mine compliance event [17][18]. - Nickel: The uncertainty of tariffs persists, and nickel prices will continue to oscillate [19]. - Crude oil: There is no obvious sign of short - term geopolitical risk escalation. In the short term, oil prices will oscillate and be observed [20]. - Steel products: The market enthusiasm has declined, and the futures prices of steel products will oscillate at high levels. The demand is still weak, and the upward pressure on prices remains [21][22]. - Iron ore: The overseas shipment and arrival volume have increased, and the inventory pressure has slightly increased. The demand is expected to remain weak, and the short - term trend will be oscillating [23]. - Soybean and rapeseed meal: The excellent - good rate of US soybeans is higher than expected, and the Dalian soybean meal may oscillate and strengthen [24][25]. - Palm oil: India's palm oil imports increased significantly in June, and palm oil may oscillate and be on the strong side in the short term [26][27]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: Trump's tariff pressure is escalating. The EU warns of counter - tariffs on $720 billion of US products, Trump threatens Russia with 100% secondary tariffs, Brazil requests tariff reduction and postponement, and the US starts a 232 investigation on drone and polysilicon imports. The dollar index rose above 98, and the stock and commodity markets had corresponding fluctuations [2]. - Domestically: China's June exports and imports were better than expected, the trade surplus expanded, and the financial data marginally improved. A - shares rose with reduced volume, and the bond market is in a short - term shock [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - Gold: COMEX gold futures fell 0.35% to $3352.10 per ounce on Monday. The current gold price is in shock [4]. - Silver: COMEX silver futures fell 1.40% to $38.41 per ounce on Monday. Silver has started a catch - up rally, reaching a new high in nearly 14 years. It is expected that the catch - up rally will continue [4][5]. 3.3 Base Metals Copper - On Monday, Shanghai copper's main contract was weakly oscillating, and Lun copper oscillated around $9700. The LME inventory rose to 109,000 tons. It is expected that the short - term market will maintain a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic, and Shanghai copper will continue to adjust downward [6][7]. Aluminum - On Monday, Shanghai aluminum's main contract closed at 20,415 yuan per ton, down 1.45%. The social inventory of aluminum increased significantly, and the market's long - position confidence declined. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the sustainability of inventory accumulation [8][9]. Alumina - On Monday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 3145 yuan per ton, down 0.6%. The supply - demand contradiction is not obvious, and it is expected to maintain a shock [10]. Zinc - On Monday, Shanghai zinc's main contract oscillated narrowly during the day and rose after a low opening at night. The overall zinc price will oscillate at a low level due to the tug - of - war between macro and micro factors [11]. Lead - On Monday, Shanghai lead's main contract oscillated narrowly during the day and horizontally at night. Near the delivery of the current - month contract, inventory pressure suppresses the price trend. After the delivery factor is removed, lead prices are expected to rise with the recovery of consumption [12][13]. Tin - On Monday, Shanghai tin's main contract fluctuated greatly during the day and first declined then rose at night. The supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is limited, and tin prices will oscillate [14]. Nickel - On Monday, nickel prices oscillated weakly. The uncertainty of tariffs persists, and nickel prices will continue to oscillate [19]. 3.4 Industrial Products Industrial Silicon - On Monday, the main contract of industrial silicon continued to rebound. Driven by new policies, the futures price is expected to maintain a strong shock in the short term [15][16]. Carbonate Lithium - On Monday, the futures price of lithium carbonate was running strongly, and the spot price rose slightly. The impact of the Yichang lithium mine compliance event is uncertain, and lithium prices will oscillate [17][18]. 3.5 Energy Crude Oil - On Monday, crude oil oscillated weakly. There is no obvious sign of short - term geopolitical risk escalation. In the short term, oil prices will oscillate and be observed [20]. 3.6 Steel Products Steel Products - On Monday, steel futures oscillated. The market enthusiasm has declined, and the futures prices will oscillate at high levels. The demand is still weak, and the upward pressure on prices remains [21][22]. Iron Ore - On Monday, iron ore futures oscillated. The overseas shipment and arrival volume have increased, and the inventory pressure has slightly increased. The demand is expected to remain weak, and the short - term trend will be oscillating [23]. 3.7 Agricultural Products Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Monday, the soybean meal 09 contract rose, and the rapeseed meal 09 contract also rose. The excellent - good rate of US soybeans is higher than expected, and the Dalian soybean meal may oscillate and strengthen [24][25]. Palm Oil - On Monday, the palm oil 09 contract rose. India's palm oil imports increased significantly in June, and palm oil may oscillate and be on the strong side in the short term [26][27].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Macro aspect: Trump's tariff turmoil has resurfaced, but the overall tariff pressure has been reduced, leading to strong uncertainty in the policy. Most Fed officials still believe it is appropriate to cut interest rates at the end of the year, and the impact of Trump's tariffs on prices remains uncertain [3]. - Fundamental aspect: Nickel ore prices have weakened, stainless - steel production has declined, spot inventories are high, steel mills' willingness to replenish raw materials is weak, nickel - iron prices are under pressure, and the cost pressure on nickel - iron plants is still prominent. The power market has no significant changes, and nickel sulfate is relatively stable. Pure nickel continues the de - stocking trend, but the spot market is cold, and the premium has dropped significantly [3]. - Future outlook: Supply increases month - on - month, demand decreases month - on - month, and nickel prices lack fundamental drivers. In the short term, focus on macro risks. The nickel price may fluctuate weakly [3][11]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Last Week's Market Important Data - SHFE nickel price rose from 120,540 yuan/ton on July 7, 2025, to 121,390 yuan/ton on July 11, 2025, an increase of 850 yuan/ton. LME nickel price rose from 15,177 dollars/ton to 15,198 dollars/ton, an increase of 21 dollars/ton. LME inventory increased by 3,708 tons to 206,178 tons, while SHFE inventory decreased by 390 tons to 20,442 tons. Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 2,050 yuan/ton, and Russian nickel premium increased by 250 yuan/ton to 550 yuan/ton. High - nickel pig iron average price decreased by 10 yuan/nickel point to 912 yuan/nickel point, and stainless - steel inventory increased by 1.47 tons to 93.1 tons [4]. 2. Market Review Nickel Ore - The price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines dropped from 52 dollars/wet ton to 51 dollars/wet ton, and that in Indonesia dropped from 46.9 dollars/wet ton to 46.4 dollars/wet ton. Due to rainfall disturbances, the supply shortage at the mine end has persisted. With the long - term pressure on nickel - iron, some nickel - iron plants have reduced production and carried out maintenance, alleviating the shortage of nickel ore and causing the high - level price to weaken [5]. Nickel Iron - The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) dropped from 907.5 yuan/nickel point to 905 yuan/nickel point. In June, China's nickel - iron production was expected to be about 24,550 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.82%, and 24,540 tons in July, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04%. In May, domestic nickel - iron imports were about 848,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.19% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. Indonesia's nickel - iron production in June was 136,800 nickel tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.51% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.26%, and 134,700 nickel tons in July, a year - on - year increase of 28.42% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.52%. The stainless - steel production has shrunk significantly, the inventory is at an absolute high level, and the downstream steel mills' willingness to replenish nickel - iron is weak. The cost pressure on nickel - iron plants is increasing, and many plants have reduced production. If the production continues to shrink, it may drive the price to stop falling and stabilize [6]. Nickel Sulfate - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate rose slightly from 27,400 yuan/ton to 27,420 yuan/ton, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained at 28,000 yuan/ton. In June, the metal output of nickel sulfate was about 24,795 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.68% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.39%. The output of ternary materials increased to about 64,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.95% and a month - on - month increase of 1.36%. As of July 4, the downstream nickel - sulfate inventory days increased to 13 days, and the upstream inventory days decreased to about 8 days. The high inventory may suppress the material plants' replenishment intensity, and the nickel - sulfate price may be difficult to rise further [7]. 3. Macro and Fundamental Analysis - Macro: Trump's tariff turmoil has resurfaced, with most countries seeing a decline in tariff rates compared to April. The Fed believes it is appropriate to cut interest rates at the end of the year and emphasizes observing the impact of tariffs on the supply chain [3][8]. - Fundamental: In July, the domestic monthly production capacity decreased slightly by 400 tons to 53,699 tons, and the smelter production increased slightly month - on - month. The expected production of electrolytic nickel in July was 32,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of about 1.25%. The export profit turned negative, which may suppress the domestic inventory de - stocking [8]. 4. Terminal Consumption - From July 1 - 6, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 135,000, a year - on - year increase of 21% and a month - on - month decrease of 11%. The retail penetration rate of the new - energy market was 56.7%, and the cumulative retail sales since the beginning of the year were 6.583 million, a year - on - year increase of 37%. The sales growth rate of new - energy vehicles weakened in the first week of July. The shortage of subsidy funds may drag down demand, and the export of new - energy vehicles to Europe is expected to weaken. The "Big and Beautiful" Act in the US will cancel subsidies for new - energy vehicle purchases after September 30. The domestic policy will focus on the automotive industry, and the demand is not expected to increase significantly [9]. 5. Inventory - The current total social inventory of pure nickel in six places is 39,173 tons, a decrease of 1,144 tons from the previous period. SHFE inventory is 20,442 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 399 tons, and LME nickel inventory is 206,178 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,708 tons. The total inventory of the two major global exchanges is 226,620 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,318 tons [10]. 6. Industry News - Indonesia's approved nickel - ore production in 2025 reached 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target [12]. - Zhongwei Co., Ltd.'s first - phase 40,000 - ton nickel - based material production line in Morocco has been fully put into operation, and the base has a complete industrial - chain layout [12]. - Zhejiang New Era Zhongneng Technology Co., Ltd.'s project of producing electrowon nickel - cobalt in a sulfuric - acid system has been successfully put into production [12]. - Indonesian ITMG acquired a 9.62% stake in a nickel - mining enterprise [12]. 7. Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on the trends of domestic and foreign nickel prices, spot premiums, LME 0 - 3 nickel premiums, nickel domestic - to - foreign ratios, nickel - futures inventories, nickel - ore port inventories, high - nickel - iron prices, 300 - series stainless - steel prices, and stainless - steel inventories [14][16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The macro - face is positive. The National Development and Reform Commission expects China's GDP in 2025 to be around 140 trillion yuan, and will promote the modern infrastructure system. The State Council aims to stabilize employment and the economy through policy measures [1]. - The fundamental data last week was weak. The production and sales of the five major steel products declined, and the inventory remained flat. The production, apparent demand, and inventory of rebar all decreased, and the demand for building materials was in the off - season. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils also decreased, and the inventory increased slightly for three consecutive weeks [1]. - The recent rebound of rebar futures is mainly due to positive macro - expectations and supplemented by the improvement of the supply - demand structure. The short - term market sentiment is warm, and the futures price is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend. However, due to the weak demand pattern, the upward pressure on the futures price is still large [1][5] Summary by Directory Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3133 | 61 | 1.99 | 7764666 | 3183357 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - rolled Coil | 3273 | 72 | 2.25 | 2688725 | 1597104 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 764.0 | 31.5 | 4.30 | 1646727 | 659915 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 913.0 | 73.5 | 8.76 | 6466818 | 796808 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1519.5 | 86.5 | 6.04 | 132329 | 56526 | Yuan/ton | [2] Market Review - Last week, steel futures rose strongly supported by macro - sentiment. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billet was 2960 (+30) yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3220 (+50) yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3300 (+50) yuan/ton [4]. - The macro - situation is positive with expected GDP scale and employment - stabilizing policies [4]. - The industrial data shows that last week, rebar production was 217 million tons, a decrease of 4 million tons; apparent demand was 221 million tons, a decrease of 4 million tons; factory inventory was 181 million tons, unchanged; social inventory was 359 million tons, a decrease of 5 million tons; total inventory was 540 million tons, a decrease of 5 million tons. Hot - rolled coil production was 323 million tons, a decrease of 5 million tons; factory inventory was 78 million tons, a decrease of 0.51 million tons; social inventory was 268 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons; total inventory was 346 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons; apparent demand was 323 million tons, a decrease of 2 million tons [1][5] Industry News - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development aims to stabilize the real estate market [6][7]. - Trump extended the "reciprocal tariff" suspension period and announced new tariffs on Mexican and EU products [10]. - 33 construction enterprises issued an "anti - involution" initiative [10]. - The National Development and Reform Commission gave GDP expectations and infrastructure development plans [10]. - The State Council issued an employment - stabilizing policy [10] Related Charts - The report provides 20 charts related to steel futures, including rebar and hot - rolled coil futures, basis, regional price differences, production, inventory, and consumption [9][11][16]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - Last week, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 113 to close at 4,175 ringgit/ton, a 2.78% increase; the palm oil 09 contract rose 210 to close at 8,682 yuan/ton, a 2.48% increase; the soybean oil 09 contract rose 42 to close at 7,986 yuan/ton, a 0.53% increase; the rapeseed oil 09 contract fell 168 to close at 9,439 yuan/ton, a 1.75% decrease; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract fell 0.97 to close at 53.57 cents/pound, a 1.78% decrease; the ICE canola active contract fell 36.1 to close at 683 Canadian dollars/ton, a 5.02% decrease [4][6]. - The domestic oil and fat sector fluctuated and closed higher, but there was internal differentiation. Palm oil was the strongest. Although the MPOB report showed that export demand was lower than expected, domestic consumption increased significantly, and inventory continued to rise, which was slightly bearish overall, the export data in July showed a month - on - month increase. Indonesia's B40 policy is being implemented, and there is an expectation of a B50 policy in the future. Coupled with the boost from the recovery of the domestic commodity market, palm oil had a large increase. The improvement of precipitation expectations in the Canadian canola - producing areas and the expectation of EU production recovery led to a decline in canola, dragging down domestic rapeseed oil. Although US soybean oil was supported by the expectation of the biodiesel policy, the decline of US soybeans during the week dragged it down [4][7]. - Macroscopically, the US unilaterally issued a tax - levying letter, with a compressed negotiation time, and the process is expected to be slow. Attention should be paid to the release of this week's CPI data. Fundamentally, although the June MPOB report was slightly bearish, the recent strengthening of oil prices, the good export data in July, the implementation of Indonesia's B40 policy increasing biodiesel consumption, and the expectation of B50 implementation next year supported the strong performance of palm oil. Overall, palm oil may fluctuate strongly in the short term [4][9]. Summary by Directory Market Data - The report provides the trading data of various contracts from July 4th to July 11th, including the CBOT soybean oil main contract, BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract, DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, CZCE rapeseed oil, as well as the futures spreads between soybean and palm oil, rapeseed and palm oil, and the spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in different regions, along with their price changes and percentage changes [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - The domestic oil and fat sector showed internal differentiation. Palm oil was strong due to factors such as export data improvement, policy support, and market sentiment. Rapeseed oil was weak because of the expected improvement in Canadian canola production and EU production recovery. US soybean oil was affected by the decline of US soybeans despite biodiesel policy expectations [7]. - The June MPOB report showed that the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil was 2.031 million tons, a 2.41% month - on - month increase; production was 1.692 million tons, a 4.48% month - on - month decrease; export volume was 1.259 million tons, a 10.52% month - on - month decrease; and consumption was 455,000 tons, a 43.79% month - on - month increase [7]. - According to SPPOMA data, from July 1 - 10, 2025, the yield of fresh fruit bunches in Malaysia increased by 35.43%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.02%, and palm oil production decreased by 35.28%. Different shipping survey agencies had different data on Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 10, 2025, with ITS showing a 5.32% increase, AmSpec showing an 11.95% increase, and SGS showing a 28.14% decrease [7][8]. - As of the week ending July 4, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key domestic regions was 2.254 million tons, an increase of 34,400 tons from the previous week and 371,700 tons from the same period last year. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.0197 million tons, an increase of 64,500 tons from the previous week and 1,100 tons from the same period last year; palm oil inventory was 535,100 tons, a decrease of 2,300 tons from the previous week and an increase of 62,000 tons from the same period last year; rapeseed oil inventory was 699,600 tons, a decrease of 27,800 tons from the previous week and an increase of 308,600 tons from the same period last year [8]. - As of the week ending July 11, 2025, the weekly average daily trading volume of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 12,920 tons, compared with 6,440 tons in the previous week; the weekly average daily trading volume of palm oil was 370 tons, compared with 486 tons in the previous week [8]. Industry News - An Indian agricultural minister called on the central government to modify the palm oil import policy, increase the import tariff to 44%, and set a minimum guaranteed price of 25,000 rupees per ton to protect domestic oil palm farmers [10]. - The Malaysian Minister of Plantation Industries said that the demand for Malaysian palm oil products in industrial applications, especially in food processing in sub - Saharan Africa, is increasing. Exports to North Africa increased by 63.5% in 2024, and exports to sub - Saharan Africa increased by 26% year - on - year in the first five months of 2025 [10]. - BMI expects that Malaysia's palm oil production will partially recover in the 2025/26 fiscal year, with a year - on - year increase of 0.5% to 19.5 million tons, but industrial demand may slow down due to factors such as the slow progress of biodiesel targets and stricter restrictions on waste cooking oil trade [11]. Related Charts - The report includes various charts showing the price trends of Malaysian palm oil, US soybean oil, three major oils, and the spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, as well as the production, inventory, and export volume of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, and the commercial inventories of domestic three major oils [12 - 47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the international gold price showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, while the international silver price broke through $39 per ounce, reaching a nearly 14 - year high. Trump postponed the tariff effective date from July 9th to August 1st, but sent tax - levy letters to multiple trading partners, and the overseas tariff disturbance still exists. His announcement of a 50% tariff on imported copper in the US starting from August 1st drove up the price of US copper, and silver rose 4.7% last Friday due to its industrial attributes and the momentum of a catch - up rally, hitting a new high [2][3][6]. - The Fed's June meeting minutes showed that only a few of the 19 policymakers supported a rate cut this month, and most officials were worried about the inflation pressure that Trump's trade tariffs might bring. There are increasing rumors that Powell may be forced to resign [3][6]. - The market has become desensitized to tariffs, and risk assets have not shown significant adjustments. However, the 50% tariff on imported copper has significantly affected the US copper price. It is expected that the catch - up rally of silver prices will continue [3][9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold | 773.56 | - 3.50 | - 0.45 | 181932 | 178255 | Yuan/Gram | | Shanghai Gold T + D | 769.30 | 1.50 | 0.20 | 32652 | 211814 | Yuan/Gram | | COMEX Gold | 3370.30 | 34.30 | 1.03 | | | US Dollar/Ounce | | SHFE Silver | 9040 | 121 | 1.36 | 522479 | 634627 | Yuan/Kilogram | | Shanghai Silver T + D | 9028 | 168 | 1.90 | 632508 | 3287648 | Yuan/Kilogram | | COMEX Silver | 39.08 | 2.04 | 5.49 | | | US Dollar/Ounce | [4] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - The international gold price was volatile and slightly stronger last week, and the international silver price reached a nearly 14 - year high. Trump's tariff policies brought both buffer periods and disturbances. The Fed's policymakers were divided on rate cuts, and rumors about Powell's possible resignation are increasing [3][6]. - The market has become desensitized to tariffs, but the 50% tariff on imported copper affected the US copper price. Silver reached a new high due to its industrial attributes and catch - up momentum, and its catch - up rally is expected to continue. This week, focus on the US June CPI, retail data, the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors' meeting, and the Fed's release of the Beige Book [9]. 3.3 Important Data Information - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 227,000, the fourth consecutive weekly decline and the lowest level in two months. The number of continued jobless claims in the previous week was 1.965 million, still the highest since the end of 2021 [10]. - The Eurozone's July Sentix investor confidence index was 4.5, the highest since February 2022. The Eurozone's May retail sales increased by 1.8% year - on - year [10]. - China's gold reserves at the end of June were reported at 73.9 million ounces (about 2298.55 tons), an increase of 70,000 ounces (about 2.18 tons) from the previous month, the eighth consecutive month of increase [10]. - Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported copper in the US, effective August 1, 2025. The US imports nearly half of its copper, mostly from Chile [10]. - Fed Governor Waller said the Fed could consider a rate cut in July, and should adjust its asset holdings and reduce the bank reserve scale. Fed's Daly said the Fed may cut rates twice this year, and it's time to consider rate adjustments [11]. 3.4 Relevant Data Charts The report includes multiple charts showing the trends of precious metals prices, inventory, non - commercial net long positions, spreads, ratios, and their relationships with other economic indicators such as inflation expectations, the US dollar index, and bond yields [16][17][18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Last week, copper prices showed a pattern of strength in the overseas market and weakness in the domestic market. Trump's announcement of a 50% high - tariff on imported copper from August 1st caused a sharp rise in US copper prices. A large amount of cross - market arbitrage funds entered the market, suppressing the prices of LME copper and SHFE copper. Some Fed officials believe that there will most likely be two interest rate cuts this year, and the impact of tariffs on prices is more moderate than expected, boosting market risk appetite. US copper is strong, but the risk of inventory surplus after the tariff implementation poses a pressure on further upward movement. LME copper will maintain a relatively strong oscillation, while SHFE copper will be weak in the short term under the dual pressure of reduced imported supplies and cross - market arbitrage [3][9]. - Overall, Trump's two rounds of tariff collection actions have triggered market concerns about the deterioration of trade relations. The upcoming high - tariff on US copper has led to the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic copper prices. The Fed's meeting minutes show a large divergence between hawks and doves, and maintaining the status quo in July is still the baseline scenario. Fundamentally, the resumption of overseas interrupted mines is slim, the global refined copper market remains in a tight - balance pattern, deliverable supplies are flowing into North America, and domestic social inventory is fluctuating at a low level. It is expected that the overseas copper price will maintain a high - level oscillation, and SHFE copper will face pressure to回调 and confirm the lower support [4][12][13]. Summary by Directory Market Data - From July 4th to July 11th, LME copper decreased from $9852.00/ton to $9663.00/ton, a decrease of $189.00 or - 1.92%; COMEX copper increased from 506.25 cents/pound to 558.4 cents/pound, an increase of 52.15 cents or 10.30%; SHFE copper decreased from 79730.00 yuan/ton to 78430.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1300.00 yuan or - 1.63%; international copper decreased from 70990.00 yuan/ton to 69600.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1390.00 yuan or - 1.96%. The Shanghai - London ratio increased from 8.09 to 8.12. The LME spot premium decreased from $95.35/ton to - $21.57/ton, a decrease of $116.92 or - 122.62%. The Shanghai spot premium decreased from 115 yuan/ton to - 25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan [5]. - As of July 11th, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded areas increased to 491,373 tons, a 5.60% increase. Among them, LME copper inventory increased by 13,450 tons, LME0 - 3 shifted back to the B structure, and the proportion of cancelled warrants rose to 37.6%; SHFE inventory decreased by 3,127 tons; bonded area inventory increased by 2,500 tons, and the Yangshan copper bill of lading rose to $60. The COMEX premium over LME reached up to 28%, causing deliverable supplies to rush to North America [8][9]. Market Analysis and Outlook - Copper prices showed an overseas - strong and domestic - weak pattern last week. The high - tariff on US copper led to a sharp rise in COMEX copper, and cross - market arbitrage funds suppressed LME and SHFE copper. The Fed's possible interest rate cuts boosted market sentiment. US copper is restricted by inventory risks, LME copper will oscillate strongly, and SHFE copper will be weak in the short term. Overseas mines' resumption is difficult, and the global refined copper market remains in a tight - balance pattern [3][9]. - In terms of inventory, the global inventory continued to rebound. LME copper inventory increased, SHFE inventory decreased slightly, and bonded area inventory increased. The COMEX - LME premium led to the transfer of supplies to North America, and some imported copper will flow back to China in the future. The Shanghai - London ratio rose slightly to 8.12 [9][10]. - Macroscopically, Trump postponed the implementation of reciprocal tariffs to August 1st and threatened to impose high - tariffs on copper. COMEX copper soared and then fell. US consumer inflation expectations have eased. Fed officials are divided on the impact of tariffs on inflation, and most believe there will be at least two interest rate cuts this year, but there are also officials who think the interest rate will remain unchanged. In China, June's CPI and core CPI increased, while PPI decreased, but some factors will drive price recovery [11]. - In terms of supply and demand, overseas mines' interruptions continue, and the domestic spot TC remains at - $45/ton. Under the negative processing fee, large and medium - sized smelters maintain production with by - product profits, while some small and medium - sized smelters face the risk of production reduction. On the demand side, power grid investment projects have started, the copper cable enterprise's operating rate in June decreased slightly, the orders of refined copper rod enterprises declined, the new energy vehicle production and sales maintained a high growth rate, and the traditional industry supports the demand base [12]. Industry News - In May, Codelco's copper production was 130,100 tons, a 16.5% year - on - year increase; Escondida's production was 132,000 tons, a 24.4% year - on - year increase; Collahuasi's production was 38,400 tons, a 16.9% year - on - year decrease. In June, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.135 million tons, a 13% year - on - year increase, and the cumulative production in the first half of the year was 6.6 million tons, a 11.4% cumulative year - on - year increase [14]. - Hudbay Minerals temporarily suspended the operation of Snow Lake due to wildfires in northern Canada, but expects to resume operations efficiently once the wildfire situation improves and still aims to achieve its annual guidance in Manitoba in 2025 [14]. - Capstone Copper obtained environmental approval for its $150 - million Mantoverde Optimized project in Chile, which will extend the mine's service life from 19 to 25 years and increase the annual copper - equivalent production from 97,000 - 112,000 tons to 125,000 - 135,000 tons [15]. - The processing fee of 8mm T1 cable wire rods in East China rose to 250 - 550 yuan/ton last week, with the highest price decreasing by 50 yuan/ton. The decline in domestic copper premiums and the operating rate of cable enterprises led to a decrease in the order scale of refined copper rod enterprises. It is expected that the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises will continue to decline slowly in mid - to - late July [16].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The tariff policy has reappeared as a disturbance, suppressing market risk appetite, but the impact has weakened marginally. Domestic policy expectations are positive, and the macro - environment is relatively stable. The fundamentals maintain a pattern of high supply and declining demand in the off - season. Stockpiling has accelerated since July, but the strengthening overseas structure provides support. With the coexistence of bullish and bearish factors, zinc prices are fluctuating, and a volatile trading strategy is recommended [3][4][11] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - SHFE zinc price decreased from 22410 yuan/ton on July 4th to 22380 yuan/ton on July 11th, a drop of 30 yuan/ton. LME zinc price increased from 2735.5 dollars/ton to 2738 dollars/ton, a rise of 2.5 dollars/ton. The SHFE - LME ratio decreased from 8.19 to 8.17, a decline of 0.02. The SHFE inventory increased by 4617 tons to 49981 tons, while the LME inventory decreased by 7075 tons to 105250 tons. The social inventory increased by 0.12 million tons to 9.03 million tons, and the spot premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to 60 yuan/ton [5] 2. Market Review - The price of the main SHFE zinc contract ZN2508 first declined and then rebounded. In the first half of the week, tariff disturbances and accelerated stockpiling dragged down the price, while in the second half, the strengthening overseas structure and squeeze concerns boosted the price. It finally closed at 22380 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.13%. LME zinc stabilized and rebounded, closing at 2738 dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.09%. In the spot market, due to the off - season and rising zinc prices, downstream purchasing was weak, and the spot premium declined significantly [6][7] 3. Industry News - As of July 11th, the weekly average domestic TC of SMM Zn50 remained flat at 3800 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index increased by 0.23 dollars/dry ton to 66.48 dollars/dry ton. The Kipushi zinc mine in Congo (Kinshasa) produced 41,800 metal tons of zinc concentrate in Q2 2025, and the annual zinc production guidance remains unchanged at 180,000 - 240,000 metal tons [12] 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of SHFE and LME zinc, the spot premium, LME premium, inventory levels, zinc ore processing fees, zinc ore import profit and loss, domestic refined zinc production, smelter profits, refined zinc net imports, and downstream primary enterprise operating rates [13][15][17]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Macro uncertainties are strong, and short - term macro impacts may still fluctuate. Fundamentally, supply is stable while consumption is seasonally weak, but market arrivals are not abundant, and the continuous accumulation of aluminum ingot social inventory is not confirmed. The long - position atmosphere in the short - term remains, and future inventory changes should be monitored [2][6] Group 3: Summary by Directory Transaction Data - LME Aluminum 3 - month price rose from 2597.5 to 2602 yuan/ton; SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three rose from 20490 to 20525 dollars/ton; LME Aluminum inventory increased by 36350 tons to 400275 tons; SHFE Aluminum warehouse receipt inventory increased by 13495 tons to 51980 tons; spot average price decreased by 102 yuan/ton to 20698 yuan/ton; electrolytic aluminum weekly average profit decreased by 139.4 yuan/ton to 4111.18 yuan/ton [3] Market Review - The weekly average spot price was 20698 yuan/ton, a decrease of 102 yuan/ton from last week. Fed officials have different views on interest rate prospects. Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported copper starting August 1, 2025. The domestic downstream aluminum processing industry's operating rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.6%. On July 10, electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.8 tons to 46.6 tons, and aluminum rod inventory increased by 0.65 tons to 16 tons [4][5] Market Outlook - Similar to the core view, macro uncertainties are high, and short - term macro impacts may fluctuate. Fundamentally, supply is stable and consumption is seasonally weak, but market arrivals are scarce, and the continuous accumulation of inventory is not confirmed. The long - position atmosphere remains, and inventory changes should be monitored [6] Industry News - Yunnan held a meeting on the green aluminum industry, and the Wenshan Zhilv project was put into operation; Canada may provide financial support to large aluminum producers if the 50% US aluminum import tariff persists; Baotou Aluminum's 200,000 - ton project had a successful hot - load test [7] Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including LME Aluminum 3 - SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three price trends, LME Aluminum premium, etc., to show the market situation of the aluminum industry [8][9][12]