1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market cooled last Friday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate in the bottom - range. The black - series is still in a bottom - oscillating pattern and is sensitive to marginal news. Pay attention to the destocking progress of hot - rolled coils, the strengthening of "dual - carbon" policies, and their potential marginal impact on the supply - demand pattern of the steel industry [3]. - For iron ore, the overseas shipping season is entering a slow period, and the supply pressure may be marginally relieved. Iron - water production has limited resumption, and the inventory structure problem remains unsolved. Steel mills are starting to replenish their stocks before the Spring Festival, creating room for a relative price increase. Monitor the stock - replenishment and iron - water production rhythm of steel mills [6]. - The long - term bullish sentiment in the commodity market will continue, mainly centered around precious metals and non - ferrous metals. Other sectors are affected by the spill - over of market sentiment, and the scope of sentiment influence may shrink. Be aware of the impact of the high - level fluctuations of leading varieties on market sentiment [9]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the future market will be influenced by the overall market sentiment and the cost - push from manganese ore for manganese silicon and the supply contraction for ferrosilicon. Focus on potential restrictions on manganese ore exports and "dual - carbon" policies [10]. - The decline of coking coal and coke prices last week was mainly due to the weakening of market sentiment. In the future, the bullish sentiment in the commodity market will continue, but with short - term fluctuations. Coking coal and coke are expected to show an oscillatingly strong price trend [15][16]. - For industrial silicon, with the reduction of production on the supply side and the weakening of demand, it still faces inventory - building pressure and is expected to have an oscillatingly weak price trend. Monitor the production adjustment rhythm of downstream enterprises [19]. - For polysilicon, the market is in a wait - and - see state. The supply pressure is expected to ease, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to spot transactions and exchange risk - control measures [22]. - For glass, the supply - demand pattern is in a loose balance, with no obvious marginal driver. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 1015 - 1200 yuan/ton [25]. - For soda ash, the supply - demand game continues, and there is no obvious driving factor. The price is expected to maintain a weak consolidation trend in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 1123 - 1310 yuan/ton [27]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products a. Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3163 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton (0.094%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 61,680 tons, an increase of 1510 tons. The main - contract open interest was 1.7553 million lots, an increase of 70,217 lots. The Tianjin and Shanghai summary prices increased by 10 yuan/ton [2]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3315 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (0.241%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 194,362 tons, unchanged. The main - contract open interest was 1.5147 million lots, an increase of 66,309 lots. The Lecong and Shanghai summary prices increased by 20 and 30 yuan/ton respectively [2]. b. Strategy Views - The production of hot - rolled coils has slightly increased, the apparent demand has improved, but the inventory is high and the destocking is slow. The apparent demand for rebar has increased significantly, the production is at a medium level, and the inventory is basically flat. The overall performance is neutral [3]. Iron Ore a. Market Quotes - The main contract (I2605) of iron ore closed at 812.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.12% (- 1.00). The open interest changed by - 3540 lots to 648,900 lots. The weighted open interest was 995,200 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 819 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 58.72 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.74% [5]. b. Strategy Views - Supply: The year - end shipping rush of mines has ended, and the overseas iron - ore shipping volume has continued to decline. The shipping volume from Brazil has decreased significantly, and the shipping of Rio Tinto and BHP has decreased. The shipping from non - mainstream countries has increased, and the near - term arrival volume has continued to rise [6]. - Demand: The daily average pig - iron output was 228.01 tons, a decrease from the previous period. There were both blast - furnace overhauls and restarts. The profitability of steel mills has risen to nearly 40% [6]. - Inventory: The port inventory has continued to increase, and the inventory of imported ore in steel mills has also increased [6]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon a. Market Quotes - On January 16, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM603) closed down 0.72% at 5828 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, with a basis of 82 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed down 0.71% at 5570 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5800 yuan/ton, with a basis of 230 yuan/ton [8]. b. Strategy Views - The decline in the prices of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon was due to the weakening of market sentiment. In the future, the bullish sentiment in the commodity market will continue, but the main focus is on precious metals and non - ferrous metals. Other sectors are affected by sentiment spill - over [9]. - The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is loose, and that of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. The future market will be influenced by market sentiment, the cost - push from manganese ore, and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon [10]. Coking Coal and Coke a. Market Quotes - On January 16, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) closed down 1.39% at 1171.0 yuan/ton. The spot prices in Shanxi had different basis levels. The main contract of coke (J2605) closed down 1.60% at 1717.0 yuan/ton. The spot prices in Rizhao and Lvliang had different basis levels [12]. b. Strategy Views - The decline in coking coal and coke prices last week was due to the weakening of market sentiment. In the future, the bullish sentiment in the commodity market will continue, but with short - term fluctuations. The supply - demand of coking coal and coke is relatively balanced, and the prices are expected to show an oscillatingly strong trend [15][16]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon a. Market Quotes - For industrial silicon, the main contract (SI2605) closed at 8605 yuan/ton on Friday, down 1.43% (- 125). The weighted open interest increased by 6473 lots to 371,875 lots. The spot prices of different grades in East China remained unchanged [18]. - For polysilicon, the main contract (PS2605) closed at 50,200 yuan/ton on Friday, up 3.14% (+ 1530). The weighted open interest decreased by 2173 lots to 84,296 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon increased [20]. b. Strategy Views - For industrial silicon, the supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is also weakening. It still faces inventory - building pressure and is expected to have an oscillatingly weak price trend [19]. - For polysilicon, the market is in a wait - and - see state. The supply pressure is expected to ease, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [22]. Glass and Soda Ash a. Market Quotes - For glass, the main contract closed at 1103 yuan/ton on Friday, up 1.57% (+ 17). The inventory decreased by 2505,000 cases week - on - week. The positions of the top 20 long and short holders changed [24]. - For soda ash, the main contract closed at 1192 yuan/ton on Friday, down 0.08% (- 1). The inventory increased by 0.23 million tons week - on - week. The positions of the top 20 long and short holders changed [26]. b. Strategy Views - For glass, the supply - demand pattern is in a loose balance, with no obvious marginal driver. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 1015 - 1200 yuan/ton [25]. - For soda ash, the supply - demand game continues, and there is no obvious driving factor. The price is expected to maintain a weak consolidation trend in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 1123 - 1310 yuan/ton [27].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The copper market is affected by factors such as the weakening expectation of Trump's tariff on key minerals, the plan of the US to impose tariffs on 8 European countries, and the loose liquidity expectation in the US financial market. The short - term copper price is expected to fluctuate to balance supply and demand [3]. - The aluminum price has fallen due to the continuous accumulation of domestic aluminum ingot inventory and the cooling of the precious metal and copper markets. However, the high spot premium in the US and the low LME global aluminum inventory limit the downward space of the aluminum price. The short - term aluminum price may be relatively firm [5][6]. - The casting aluminum alloy has strong price support due to the strong cost and continuous supply - side disturbances, but the demand is relatively average, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [9]. - For lead, the supply of lead ingots is increasing marginally, the downstream battery enterprises' operating rate is improving marginally, and the social inventory is accumulating. The short - term price needs to observe the trends of leading varieties in the sector and the Shanghai - London ratio [13]. - Zinc has a large room for price compensation compared with copper and aluminum. Although the zinc price has given back some gains, the non - ferrous sector is still regarded as bullish in the double - wide cycle, and the subsequent trends need to be observed [15]. - The tin market has weak demand and an expected improvement in supply. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate with market risk appetite, and it is recommended to wait and see [17]. - Nickel has a large surplus pressure, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see [19]. - The lithium carbonate price has fluctuated greatly. The current price has certain emotional premiums, and it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [23]. - For alumina, the ore price is expected to decline, the over - capacity pattern of the smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see and consider short - selling opportunities [26][27]. - Stainless steel is expected to maintain a relatively strong trend in the short term, with prices in a high - level volatile pattern due to supply shortages, falling inventories, and significant cost support [29]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper Market Information - On Friday, the domestic equity market adjusted, the precious metal price and copper price declined. LME copper 3M closed down 2.48% to $12,822/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 100,280 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 2,450 to 143,575 tons, and the domestic SHFE weekly inventory increased by 33,000 to 214,000 tons [2]. Strategy Views - The short - term copper price is expected to fluctuate to balance supply and demand. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 98,000 - 102,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $12,500 - $13,000/ton [3]. Aluminum Market Information - On Friday, the aluminum price continued to fall. LME aluminum closed down 1.29% to $3,130/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,945 yuan/ton. The domestic aluminum ingot three - place inventory decreased, and the aluminum rod inventory increased slightly [4]. Strategy Views - The short - term aluminum price may be relatively firm. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 23,800 - 24,200 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $3,090 - $3,160/ton [6]. Casting Aluminum Alloy Market Information - On Friday, the casting aluminum alloy price continued to fall. The main AD2603 contract closed down 1.81% to 22,735 yuan/ton. The weighted contract positions decreased, and the trading volume remained at a relatively high level [8]. Strategy Views - The short - term price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate due to strong cost support and average demand [9]. Lead Market Information - On Friday, the Shanghai lead index closed down 0.37% to 17,473 yuan/ton. The LME lead 3S fell to $2,075/ton. The social inventory of lead ingots increased [11]. Strategy Views - The supply of lead ingots is increasing marginally, and the short - term price needs to observe the trends of leading varieties in the sector and the Shanghai - London ratio [13]. Zinc Market Information - On Friday, the Shanghai zinc index closed down 1.38% to 24,746 yuan/ton. The LME zinc 3S fell to $3,264/ton. The zinc ingot social inventory decreased slightly [14]. Strategy Views - Zinc has a large room for price compensation compared with copper and aluminum. The short - term price needs to observe the trends of leading varieties in the sector and the Shanghai - London ratio [15]. Tin Market Information - On Friday, the tin price dropped significantly. The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 405,240 yuan/ton, down 6.38%. The supply is expected to improve, and the demand is mainly rigid [16]. Strategy Views - The short - term price is expected to fluctuate with market risk appetite, and it is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 360,000 - 430,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is $45,000 - $53,000/ton [17]. Nickel Market Information - On January 16th, the nickel price dropped significantly. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 139,890 yuan/ton, down 1.03%. The spot premium decreased [18]. Strategy Views - The short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the Shanghai nickel price is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $16,000 - $19,000/ton [19]. Lithium Carbonate Market Information - On Friday, the Five - Mineral Steel Union lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) decreased. The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate declined [22]. Strategy Views - The current price has certain emotional premiums, and it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate main contract is 139,500 - 149,000 yuan/ton [23]. Alumina Market Information - On January 16th, the alumina index fell 1.26% to 2,745 yuan/ton. The futures inventory increased, and the ore price decreased [25]. Strategy Views - The ore price is expected to decline, and the over - capacity pattern of the smelting end is difficult to change in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and consider short - selling opportunities. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,650 - 2,800 yuan/ton [26][27]. Stainless Steel Market Information - On Friday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 14,275 yuan/ton, down 0.97%. The social inventory decreased [29]. Strategy Views - The short - term market is expected to maintain a relatively strong trend, with prices in a high - level volatile pattern. The reference range for the main contract is 13,900 - 14,650 yuan/ton [29].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - In December 2025, the financial data continued the pattern of weak credit recovery and structurally loose liquidity. Looking ahead, the support of cross - border capital inflows due to RMB appreciation for monetary growth is expected to continue. The central bank is more likely to use structural tools and optimize existing policies to guide capital flows. For the equity market, the logic relying solely on aggregate easing is insufficient, and more attention should be paid to the financing structure, capital flow, and the sustainability of real - economy repair. For the bond market, it may fluctuate within a range in the short term as the real - economy demand repair is not stable, and there are constraints from inflation and government bond supply [3][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Socio - Financial Growth Continues to Decline, with Government Bonds as the Core Drag Factor - In December, the new social financing scale was about 2.21 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 645.7 billion yuan. The year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock dropped from 8.5% in the previous month to 8.3%. The significant year - on - year decline in government bond financing was the main reason for the weakening of social financing. After excluding government bonds, new RMB loans slightly exceeded expectations and supported social financing in December. However, the expansion momentum of social financing growth is declining [5]. 3.2 Continued Differentiation in Credit Structure - In December, the new RMB loan volume was about 910 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 80 billion yuan. Resident and enterprise financing continued to diverge. Resident loans were negative year - on - year, with both short - term and long - term loans being weak, related to the sluggish real - estate sales, low consumer willingness, and early loan repayment. In contrast, enterprise financing recovered significantly at the end of the year, with short - term loans, long - term loans, and bill financing all increasing. The improvement was driven by policy - based projects and year - end bank impulse, but its sustainability is to be observed [6]. 3.3 M2 Increase Driven by Liability - Side Structure Change - In December, the year - on - year growth rate of M2 rose to 8.5%. The change mainly came from the liability - side structure adjustment, as a large number of inter - bank certificates of deposit matured and the issuance growth of bank financial bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit slowed down, leading to funds flowing back to the banking system. The RMB appreciation also supported the M2 growth. In contrast, the year - on - year growth rate of M1 declined, due to a high base and weak enterprise capital turnover and investment expansion willingness [7]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - Overall, the December financial data maintained the pattern of weak credit recovery and structurally loose liquidity. The support of cross - border capital inflows due to RMB appreciation for monetary growth is expected to continue. The central bank will use structural tools and optimize existing policies. For the equity market, focus on financing structure and real - economy repair signals. For the bond market, it may fluctuate within a range in the short term due to unstable real - economy demand repair and constraints from inflation and government bond supply [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, with the entry of incremental funds at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has risen significantly, and market trading volume has rapidly expanded. In the long - term, policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. In the short - term, attention should be paid to market rhythm, and the strategy should be based on buying on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, the economic recovery momentum's sustainability needs further observation, and domestic demand still awaits the stabilization of residents' income and policy support. The central bank's attitude towards capital protection remains, and the capital market is expected to be stable. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the first quarter [7]. - For precious metals, the short - term driving force for gold and silver prices is weakening, but in the medium - term, the Fed's subsequent interest rate cuts and other factors may lead to a significant increase in prices. It is recommended to buy on dips [9]. - For non - ferrous metals, although the market sentiment is cooling, the financial market liquidity in the US is still expected to be loose. The copper market has a tight supply of copper ore but a relative surplus of refined copper, so the price is expected to be volatile. The aluminum market is restricted by the high - level of US aluminum spot premium and low inventory, and the price is expected to be relatively firm. Zinc and lead prices have the potential to catch up, and nickel and tin prices are expected to be volatile. The price of lithium carbonate has large fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see or take a light - position approach. The price of alumina is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies. The stainless steel market is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [12][14][17][19][22][24][26][29][30][33]. - For black building materials, the steel market is in a bottom - oscillating pattern, and attention should be paid to the de - stocking progress of hot - rolled coils and the impact of "dual - carbon" policies. The iron ore price is supported but may oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to steel mills' restocking and iron - making production rhythm. The coking coal and coke prices are expected to be oscillating and strong, but attention should be paid to market sentiment fluctuations. The glass market is expected to have a wide - range oscillation, and the soda ash market is expected to be weakly sorted. The manganese - silicon and silicon - iron prices are affected by market sentiment and cost factors, and attention should be paid to relevant policies. The industrial silicon price is expected to be weakly oscillating, and the polysilicon price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [36][39][43][45][47][50][51][54][56]. - For energy and chemical products, the rubber price is seasonally weak, and a short - selling strategy is recommended if it breaks through a certain level. The oil price is not recommended to be overly short - sold in the short - term, and a range - trading strategy is maintained. The methanol price has limited downward space and is suitable for buying on dips. The urea price is expected to be bearish, and it is recommended to take profits on rallies. For pure benzene and styrene, it is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter. The PVC price is fundamentally poor, and a short - selling strategy is recommended in the medium - term. The ethylene glycol price is expected to compress the valuation in the medium - term. The PTA price is expected to accumulate inventory during the Spring Festival, and there are long - term opportunities. The PX price is expected to accumulate inventory before the maintenance season and has long - term opportunities. The polyethylene and polypropylene prices are affected by supply and demand, and relevant trading strategies are recommended [61][63][66][68][70][73][75][77][79][81][84]. - For agricultural products, the short - term price of live pigs may be strong in the near - term, but the medium - term price is under pressure. The egg price is expected to oscillate, with limited upward and downward space. The protein meal price has increased short - term volatility due to multiple negative factors. The short - term outlook for edible oils is weak, but the long - term outlook is optimistic. The sugar price may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest, and it is recommended to wait and see. The cotton price is affected by domestic factors, and it is recommended to wait for a callback to go long [87][89][92][95][98][101]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: The A - share market should aim for a long - term bull market rather than a "crazy bull market." The commercial aerospace sector has new developments, and the Spring Festival Gala has completed its first rehearsal. The State Council has studied consumption - promotion measures [2]. - **Basis - Point Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: The basis - point ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different contract periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With the entry of incremental funds at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has increased significantly, and market trading volume has rapidly expanded. The policy support for the capital market remains unchanged in the long - term. In the short - term, attention should be paid to market rhythm, and the strategy should be based on buying on dips [4]. 3.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts have changed. The China Securities Regulatory Commission has emphasized market stability, and there are speculations about the next Fed Chairman [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank has conducted 867 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 527 billion yuan [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The economic recovery momentum's sustainability needs further observation, and domestic demand still awaits the stabilization of residents' income and policy support. The central bank's attitude towards capital protection remains, and the capital market is expected to be stable. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the first quarter [7]. 3.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver have declined, and the prices of COMEX gold and silver have also changed. The expected candidate for the new Fed Chairman has changed, weakening the expectation of significant interest rate cuts by the Fed this year, leading to a short - term correction in gold and silver prices [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term driving force for gold and silver prices is weakening, but in the medium - term, the Fed's subsequent interest rate cuts and other factors may lead to a significant increase in prices. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the reference operating range of 985 - 1100 yuan/gram for Shanghai gold and 19050 - 23688 yuan/kilogram for Shanghai silver [9]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The copper price has fallen, LME copper inventory has increased, and domestic inventory has also changed. The spot discount of copper has returned, and the import loss has narrowed [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The expectation of Trump imposing tariffs on key minerals has weakened, and the plan to impose tariffs on 8 European countries has cooled market sentiment, but the expectation of loose liquidity in the US financial market remains. The supply of copper ore is tight, but the supply of refined copper is relatively surplus. The copper price is expected to be in a volatile state, with the reference range of 98000 - 102000 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and 12500 - 13000 US dollars/ton for LME copper [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The aluminum price has continued to fall, the trading volume has decreased, and the inventory has changed. The spot discount of electrolytic aluminum has expanded, and the LME aluminum inventory has decreased [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The continuous accumulation of domestic aluminum ingot inventory and the cooling of the precious metals and copper markets have caused the aluminum price to fall back. However, the high premium of US aluminum spot and the low LME global aluminum inventory limit the downward space of the aluminum price. As the price corrects, the downstream inventory is expected to increase, and the aluminum price may be relatively firm in the short - term, with the reference range of 23800 - 24200 yuan/ton for Shanghai aluminum and 3090 - 3160 US dollars/ton for LME aluminum [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The zinc price has fallen, and relevant information on inventory, basis, and other aspects is provided [15][16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The port inventory of zinc ore has slightly decreased, and the import TC of zinc concentrate has also slightly decreased. The zinc price has a certain potential to catch up compared with copper and aluminum. The zinc price is currently in the process of following the sector to catch up on the macro - attribute, and it is necessary to observe the trend of leading varieties in the sector and the situation of the Shanghai - London ratio [17]. Lead - **Market Information**: The lead price has fallen, and relevant information on inventory, basis, and other aspects is provided [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The apparent inventory of lead concentrate has decreased, and the operating rates of primary and recycled lead have increased. The lead supply has increased marginally, and the inventory has accumulated. The lead price is approaching the upper limit of the long - term oscillation range, and the contradiction between long and short positions of macro - funds and industrial - seat funds has increased. It is necessary to observe the trend of leading varieties in the sector and the situation of the Shanghai - London ratio [19]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The nickel price has significantly corrected, and the spot premium and cost have changed [20][21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oversupply pressure of nickel remains high, but macro - level factors such as loose domestic liquidity and the Indonesian government's plan to reduce RKAB quotas support the price. The Shanghai nickel price is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai nickel and 16,000 - 19,000 US dollars/ton for LME nickel [22]. Tin - **Market Information**: The tin price has significantly corrected, the supply situation has changed, and the inventory has increased [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin market has weak demand, but the downstream inventory is at a low level. The price is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see, with the reference operating range of 360,000 - 430,000 yuan/ton for the domestic main contract and 45,000 - 53,000 US dollars/ton for overseas LME tin [24]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate has fluctuated greatly, and relevant price and inventory information is provided [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market sentiment of lithium carbonate has fluctuated significantly, and the price has risen and then fallen. The fundamental improvement expectation has been fully traded, and there is still a certain emotional premium. The price has large fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see or take a light - position approach. The reference operating range of the main contract of Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 139,500 - 149,000 yuan/ton [26]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina price has fallen, the trading volume has decreased, and relevant information on basis, inventory, and ore price is provided [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the rainy season, the shipment from Guinea has gradually recovered, and the AXIS mine has resumed production, so the ore price is expected to oscillate downward. The alumina smelting capacity is in an over - supply situation, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. It is recommended to wait and see, and it is not cost - effective to go long. It is advisable to wait for an opportunity to short the near - term contract on rallies. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2650 - 2800 yuan/ton [29]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless - steel price has fallen, the trading volume has decreased, and relevant information on spot price, raw material price, and inventory is provided [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of nickel ore is expected to be tight, and the stainless - steel market has shown a situation of increasing volume and price. The supply is restricted by raw materials, and the demand is affected by price. In the short - term, the market is expected to remain strong, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with the reference range of 13900 - 14650 yuan/ton for the main contract [30]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy has continued to fall, the trading volume has decreased, and relevant information on inventory and price difference is provided [31][32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy is relatively strong, and the supply is disturbed. The demand is relatively average, so the price is expected to oscillate and consolidate in the short - term [33]. 3.5 Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have changed, and relevant information on registered warehouse receipts, trading volume, and spot price is provided [35]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel market is in a bottom - oscillating pattern. The output of hot - rolled coils has slightly increased, and the apparent demand has improved, but the inventory is still at a high level. The apparent demand of rebar has increased significantly, and the output is at a medium level. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking progress of hot - rolled coils and the impact of "dual - carbon" policies [36]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron - ore price has decreased slightly, and relevant information on inventory, basis, and trading volume is provided [37]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron - ore shipment has decreased, the near - end arrival volume has increased, the demand for iron ore has decreased slightly, the port inventory has continued to accumulate, and the steel mills' inventory has increased. The iron - ore price is supported but may oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to steel mills' restocking and iron - making production rhythm [39]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke have fallen, and relevant information on spot price, basis, and technical form is provided [40][41]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The prices of coking coal and coke have oscillated and fallen, mainly due to the decline of market sentiment. In the future, the overall market sentiment is expected to be bullish, but there may be short - term fluctuations. The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are relatively balanced, but the steel mills' restocking willingness is not strong. The prices are expected to be oscillating and strong, but attention should be paid to market sentiment fluctuations [42][43]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass price has increased, the inventory has decreased, and the trading volume has changed. The soda - ash price has decreased slightly, the inventory has slightly increased, and the trading volume has changed [44][46]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass market has a loose supply - demand balance, and the price is expected to oscillate widely, with the reference range of 1015 - 1200 yuan/ton for the main contract. The soda - ash market has a weak supply - demand pattern, and the price is expected to be weakly sorted, with the reference price range of 1123 - 1310 yuan/ton for the main contract [45][47]. Manganese - Silicon and Silicon - Iron - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron have fallen, and relevant information on spot price, basis, and technical form is provided [49]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The prices of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron have fallen due to the decline of market sentiment. The supply and demand of manganese - silicon are not ideal, and the supply and demand of silicon - iron are relatively balanced. The future market is affected by market sentiment and cost factors, and attention should be paid to relevant policies [50][51]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The industrial - silicon price has fallen, and relevant information on spot price, basis, and trading volume is provided. The polysilicon price has increased, and relevant information on spot price, basis, and trading volume is provided [52][55]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industrial - silicon price is expected to be weakly oscillating due to the decrease in supply and demand. The polysilicon market has a situation of upstream game and downstream policy - driven expectation, and the supply pressure is expected to ease. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to spot trading and exchange risk - control measures [54][56]. 3.6 Energy and Chemical Products Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price has oscillated and weakened, and there are different views on the rise and fall of the price. The tire factory's operating rate has increased, and the inventory has changed [58][59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The rubber price is seasonally weak. A short - selling strategy is recommended if the RU2605 contract breaks below 16,000. It is recommended to partially build a position in the strategy of buying the NR main contract and short - selling the RU2609 contract

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - For urea, the current situation of internal - external price differences has opened the import window, and with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations are approaching, so it is recommended to take profits at high prices [3]. - For methanol, the current valuation is low, and the outlook for the coming year is marginally improving with limited downside. Despite short - term negative pressures, geopolitical instability in Iran has brought certain geopolitical expectations, making it feasible to buy on dips [6]. - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, oil prices should not be overly shorted in the short term. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see in the short term to verify OPEC's export price - support willingness [9]. - For rubber, the seasonal pattern is weak. A short - term bearish view is adopted. If RU2605 falls below 16000, a short - term short - selling strategy can be considered, and partial position - building is suggested for the strategy of buying NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [14]. - For PVC, fundamentally, corporate comprehensive profits are at a moderately low level. Supply reduction is limited with production at a historical high, and domestic demand is entering the off - season. Although there may be short - term export rush before April 1st due to the cancellation of export tax rebates, the overall situation of strong supply and weak demand persists, and a short - term long position is supported by electricity price expectations and export rush, while a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended in the medium term [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, currently, styrene non - integrated profits are moderately low with large upward valuation repair space. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and styrene production is increasing with continuous inventory reduction at ports. It is advisable to go long on styrene non - integrated profits before the first quarter [19]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and crude oil prices may have bottomed. PE valuation has further downward space. With no new production capacity planned in H1 2026, inventory may decline from a high level, and it is advisable to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [22]. - For polypropylene, the EIA monthly report predicts a slight reduction in global oil inventories, and the supply surplus may ease. With no new production capacity planned in H1 2026, the supply pressure is relieved. In the context of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, the futures price may bottom out after the supply surplus pattern changes in Q1 next year [25]. - For PX, the current load is high, and downstream PTA has many maintenance plans. It is expected to maintain an inventory accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. After the Spring Festival, both supply and demand with downstream PTA will be strong, and there are medium - term opportunities to go long following crude oil on dips [28]. - For PTA, the supply side will maintain high maintenance in the short term, and the demand side is under profit pressure and will gradually reduce load due to the off - season. It is expected to enter the inventory accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. There is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival, and medium - term opportunities to go long on dips should be grasped [31]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and the port inventory accumulation cycle will continue. There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction under the pressure of new plant commissioning. The valuation is currently neutral year - on - year, and there is a risk of a rebound in the short term due to the tense situation in Iran. In the medium term, the valuation is expected to be compressed without further domestic production cuts [33]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot price changes in Shandong, Henan, etc., with a total basis of - 41 yuan/ton. The main futures contract decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1791 yuan/ton [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot price changes in Jiangsu, etc., the main futures contract increased by 45 yuan/ton to 2239 yuan/ton, and MTO profit increased by 53 yuan [5]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures fell 13.60 yuan/barrel, a 3.01% decline, to 438.80 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil futures also declined. Singapore ESG oil product weekly data showed inventory accumulation for gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and total refined oil products [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices fluctuated weakly with a technical bearish signal. Bulls cited seasonal and demand expectations, while bears pointed to weak demand and uncertain macro expectations. As of January 15, 2026, Shandong tire enterprise full - steel tire and semi - steel tire operating rates changed, and as of January 11, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory increased. Spot prices of some rubber products decreased [11][12][13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 10 yuan to 4868 yuan, with a basis change. Cost - end prices were stable, the overall operating rate was 79.6% with changes in different methods. The downstream operating rate was 43.9% and decreased slightly. Factory and social inventories changed [15]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene decreased, and the basis narrowed. The spot price of styrene was unchanged, and the futures price increased with a weakened basis. Upstream operating rate, port inventory, and downstream operating rates of related products changed [18]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price of polyethylene decreased by 90 yuan/ton to 6695 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased. The basis strengthened. The upstream operating rate increased, and production enterprise and trader inventories decreased. The downstream average operating rate decreased slightly [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price of polypropylene decreased by 96 yuan/ton to 6496 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased. The basis strengthened. The upstream operating rate decreased slightly, and production enterprise, trader, and port inventories decreased. The downstream average operating rate decreased slightly [23][24]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract fell 132 yuan to 7130 yuan, and the PX CFR decreased. The basis and 3 - 5 spread changed. PX and PTA loads decreased, some domestic and overseas plants had load - adjustment operations. January imports from South Korea increased, and November - end inventory increased [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 68 yuan to 5048 yuan, and the East China spot price decreased. The basis and 5 - 9 spread changed. PTA and downstream loads decreased, some plants had load - adjustment operations, and social inventory decreased [30]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 50 yuan to 3817 yuan, and the East China spot price decreased. The basis and 5 - 9 spread changed. The supply - side load increased slightly with different changes in different production methods. Some domestic and overseas plants had load - adjustment operations. Downstream loads decreased, import arrivals were expected, and port inventory increased. Valuation and cost - related profits and prices changed [32].

钟俊轩 贵金属日报 2026-01-19 美联储主席新任候选人预期产生较大边际变化，年内联储大幅降息的预期有所弱化：联储新主 席的竞争格局由"双凯文"转向"沃什领跑"，此前，下任美联储主席的角逐主要聚焦在哈塞 特与前美联储理事凯文·沃什之间。哈塞特曾被视为头号热门人选，因为他与特朗普关系极度 亲近且政策立场更为鸽派，即最不具备独立性。但特朗普昨晚直言"哈塞特在媒体中表现不错， 可能会让他继续留任"。特朗普的表态令市场迅速调高了沃什接任联储主席的概率。沃什被认 为在维护美联储独立性与执行总统意志之间具备更好的平衡感，且更容易获得参议院的批准。 目前，沃什已成为预测市场眼中绝对的领跑者。哈塞特一直被视为支持大幅降息的代表，而沃 什在历史上（曾经的理事任期）立场偏向鹰派，由于市场预期沃什接掌后的美联储在降息节奏 上会比哈塞特更为谨慎，金银价格在特朗普讲话后短线回调。当前 Kalshi 平台数据显示，凯 文沃什被选拔为新任美联储主席的概率上升至 59%，哈塞特和沃什仅为 16%。 【策略观点】 【行情资讯】 沪金跌 0.13 %，报 1031.66 元/克，沪银跌 2.53 %，报 21998.00 元/千克；COM ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For sugar, the current raw sugar price has fallen below the support level of the Brazilian ethanol conversion price. There is a possibility of reducing the proportion of sugar cane for sugar production in the new Brazilian sugar - cane crushing season after April this year. After the northern hemisphere starts to finish the sugar - cane crushing in February and the negative impact of increased production is basically realized, the international sugar price may rebound. The supply of imported sugar in China is gradually decreasing. As the sugar price has fallen to a low level, the short - term downward space is limited, so it is advisable to wait and see for now [6]. - For cotton, the January USDA report is neutral. The recent trend of Zhengzhou cotton mainly depends on the domestic market. Affected by the expected reduction of cotton planting area in Xinjiang and the fact that the off - season is not off - peak with an increase in the downstream operating rate compared to the same period last year, the price of Zhengzhou cotton rose significantly in December. However, after the price reached a high level, the short - term fluctuation range increased. It is recommended to wait for the price to pull back and then look for opportunities to go long [11]. - For protein meal, the January USDA report data is slightly bearish as the production estimates of the US and Brazil are slightly increased compared to the previous month, and the US export volume is slightly decreased. But the overall balance sheet situation is still better than that of the 2024/25 season. China has increased its purchase of US soybeans, which supports the CBOT US soybean price but is bearish for domestic meal prices. China may significantly reduce the total import tax rate of Canadian rapeseed to about 15%, which is also a major bearish factor for domestic rapeseed prices. Currently, the protein meal price has fallen to the previous low, and with many bearish news, the short - term fluctuation range will increase [15]. - For oils, the current high production and sluggish exports in the main palm - oil producing areas have led to high inventories. The inventories of the three major domestic oils are also at a relatively high level, and the current fundamentals are weak. However, in the long run, the production estimate of Malaysia is lowered, Indonesia has confiscated illegal plantations, and it is expected that the consumption of US biodiesel soybean oil will increase in 2026. The outlook is optimistic, so it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [20]. - For eggs, due to insufficient inventory accumulation under the previous pessimistic sentiment, the spot price increase during the pre - festival stocking period exceeded expectations, driving the near - month contracts to fluctuate strongly. However, the overall supply is still abundant, and as the spot price is about to realize the seasonal increase, the near - month contracts have post - festival attributes and may fluctuate with limited upside and downside space. The far - end contracts have a long - term positive expectation due to the peak of production capacity, but the realization path is still uncertain, and attention should be paid to the pressure after over - valuation [23]. - For pigs, low prices and the festival effect have stimulated better consumption. At the same time, the large difference between fat and standard pig prices has led to sentiment of reluctance to sell and hold back pigs. After the Winter Solstice, the spot price has risen significantly, driving the futures price to rebound rationally. In the short term, the structural contradiction has not been resolved, and the downward driving force of the spot price is insufficient, which may continue to support the near - month contracts to fluctuate strongly. In the medium term, the supply base is still large, and there is a risk of the live - pig inventory piling up later, so the far - end price may still be under pressure [26]. Summary by Product Sugar Market Information - On Friday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract of Zhengzhou sugar was 5,258 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton or 0.42% compared to the previous trading day. In the spot market, the new - sugar quotes of Guangxi sugar - making groups were 5,320 - 5,390 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; those of Yunnan sugar - making groups were 5,190 - 5,230 yuan/ton, also unchanged; and the mainstream quotes of processing sugar mills were in the range of 5,800 - 5,810 yuan/ton, unchanged as well [4]. - According to UNICA data, in the first half of December, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 254,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.8%; the cumulative sugar production was 40.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.86%. The sugar - cane crushing volume in the first half of December was 5.92 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.8%; the cumulative crushing volume was 598 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. According to data from the Indian Sugar and Bioenergy Manufacturers Association (ISMA), as of January 15, 2026, the national sugar production in India had reached 15.909 million tons, a nearly 22% increase compared to 13.044 million tons in the same period last year. The number of sugar mills still in operation increased from 500 in the same period last year to 518. According to export data released by the Brazilian Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex), Brazil exported 2.913 million tons of sugar in December, an increase of 80,000 tons compared to the same period last year and a decrease of 390,000 tons compared to the previous month. Among them, the sugar exports to China in December were 385,300 tons, an increase of 330,000 tons compared to the same period last year and a decrease of 56,000 tons compared to the previous month. According to data released by the Brazilian shipping agency Williams, as of the week of January 15, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 48, up from 44 in the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded at ports was 1.6629 million tons, up from 1.5823 million tons in the previous week [5]. Strategy Wait for the northern hemisphere to finish the sugar - cane crushing in February. After the negative impact of increased production is basically realized, the international sugar price may rebound. The supply of imported sugar in China is gradually decreasing. As the sugar price has fallen to a low level, the short - term downward space is limited, so it is advisable to wait and see for now [6]. Cotton Market Information - On Friday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 14,590 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85 yuan/ton or 0.58% compared to the previous trading day. In the spot market, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 15,931 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [8]. - According to USDA data, the January forecast for the 2025/26 global cotton production was 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons compared to the December forecast and an increase of 200,000 tons compared to the previous year; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a decrease of 1.42 percentage points compared to the December forecast and an increase of 0.62 percentage points compared to the previous year. Among them, the January forecast for US production was 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons compared to the December forecast, with the export estimate remaining unchanged, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.43%, a decrease of 2.17 percentage points. The production estimate for Brazil remained unchanged at 4.08 million tons; the production estimate for India was lowered by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons; and the production estimate for China was increased by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons. According to USDA data, as of the week of January 8, the current - year cotton export sales in the US were 80,600 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 1.6231 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 191,000 tons; among them, the exports to China in that week were 13,600 tons, and the cumulative exports to China were 85,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 71,200 tons. According to Mysteel data, as of the week of January 16, the operating rate of spinning mills was 64.6%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point compared to the previous week and an increase of 8.6 percentage points compared to the same period last year; the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.69 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 380,000 tons [8][10]. Strategy The January USDA report is neutral. The recent trend of Zhengzhou cotton mainly depends on the domestic market. Affected by the expected reduction of cotton planting area in Xinjiang and the fact that the off - season is not off - peak with an increase in the downstream operating rate compared to the same period last year, the price of Zhengzhou cotton rose significantly in December. However, after the price reached a high level, the short - term fluctuation range increased. It is recommended to wait for the price to pull back and then look for opportunities to go long [11]. Protein Meal Market Information - On Friday, the protein meal futures price fell. The closing price of the May contract of soybean meal was 2,727 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton or 0.47% compared to the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed meal was 2,255 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28 yuan/ton or 1.23% compared to the previous trading day. In the spot market, the spot price of soybean meal in Dongguan was 3,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Huangpu was 2,450 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [13]. - According to foreign media reports, the Chinese and Canadian governments have reached a preliminary trade agreement, and China has promised to reduce the total import tax rate of Canadian rapeseed to about 15% at one time. According to USDA export sales data, as of the week of January 8, the US exported 2.06 million tons of soybeans, and the cumulative export of soybeans in the current year was 30.64 million tons; among them, the exports of soybeans to China in that week were 1.22 million tons, and the cumulative exports of soybeans to China in the current year were 8.12 million tons. According to USDA data, the January forecast for the 2025/26 global soybean production was 425.67 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons compared to the December forecast and a decrease of 1.48 million tons compared to the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.4%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points compared to December and a decrease of 0.44 percentage points compared to the previous year. Among them, the January forecast for US soybean production was 115.99 million tons, an increase of 0.238 million tons compared to the December forecast and a decrease of 3.05 million tons compared to the previous year; the January forecast for Brazilian production was 178 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons compared to the December forecast and an increase of 6.5 million tons compared to the previous year; the January forecast for Argentine production was 48.5 million tons, unchanged compared to the December forecast and a decrease of 2.6 million tons compared to the previous year. In addition, in the January forecast, the US export volume was slightly lowered by 1.63 million tons to 42.86 million tons compared to the December forecast. According to MYSTEEL data, as of the week of January 9, the arrival of domestic sample soybeans was 1.52 million tons, a decrease of 730,000 tons compared to the previous week; the port inventory of sample soybeans was 8.03 million tons, a decrease of 210,000 tons compared to the previous week and a year - on - year increase of 310,000 tons. The operating rate of sample soybean oil mills was 49.5%, a year - on - year decrease of 8.12 percentage points; the soybean meal inventory of sample oil mills was 930,000 tons, a decrease of 135,000 tons compared to the previous week and a year - on - year increase of 370,000 tons [14]. Strategy The January USDA report data is slightly bearish as the production estimates of the US and Brazil are slightly increased compared to the previous month, and the US export volume is slightly decreased. But the overall balance sheet situation is still better than that of the 2024/25 season. China has increased its purchase of US soybeans, which supports the CBOT US soybean price but is bearish for domestic meal prices. China may significantly reduce the total import tax rate of Canadian rapeseed to about 15%, which is also a major bearish factor for domestic rapeseed prices. Currently, the protein meal price has fallen to the previous low, and with many bearish news, the short - term fluctuation range will increase [15]. Oils Market Information - On Friday, the oils futures price rebounded. The closing price of the May contract of soybean oil was 8,016 yuan/ton, an increase of 78 yuan/ton or 0.98% compared to the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of palm oil was 8,674 yuan/ton, an increase of 96 yuan/ton or 1.12% compared to the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed oil was 9,063 yuan/ton, an increase of 235 yuan/ton or 2.66% compared to the previous trading day. In the spot market, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day; and the spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [17][18]. - The Trump administration plans to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quota in early March, keeping it roughly at the current proposed level, and may abandon the plan to impose penalties on the import of renewable fuels and renewable fuel raw materials. The deputy minister of the Indonesian Ministry of Energy said that Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% this year (i.e., the B50 plan) and will maintain the current B40 plan. According to USDA data, the January estimate of US soybean oil consumption was 1.32 million tons, a decrease of 0.249 million tons compared to the December estimate and an increase of 1 million tons compared to the previous year. According to data from the Indian Solvent Extractors' Association, India's total vegetable oil imports in December were 1.38 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons compared to November. According to data released by MPOB, the palm oil inventory in Malaysia at the end of December increased by 7.56% month - on - month to 3.05 million tons, higher than the expected 2.97 million tons; the production decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons, higher than the estimated 1.76 million tons; the export volume increased by 8.52% month - on - month to 1.32 million tons, better than the expected 1.25 million tons. MPOB estimates that Malaysia's palm oil production in 2026 will be 19.5 - 19.8 million tons, lower than 20.28 million tons in 2025. According to data released by SPPOMA, from January 1 - 10, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 20.49% month - on - month, the fresh fruit bunch yield per unit area decreased by 20.49%, and the oil extraction rate remained unchanged. According to sample data released by MMYSTEEL, as of the week of January 9, the inventory of the three major domestic oils was 2.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 158,600 tons and a decrease of 70,200 tons compared to the previous week [19]. Strategy The current high production and sluggish exports in the main palm - oil producing areas have led to high inventories. The inventories of the three major domestic oils are also at a relatively high level, and the current fundamentals are weak. However, in the long run, the production estimate of Malaysia is lowered, Indonesia has confiscated illegal plantations, and it is expected that the consumption of US biodiesel soybean oil will increase in 2026. The outlook is optimistic, so

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints Glass Market - Last week, the sentiment in the glass market shifted from strong to weak, with the futures market experiencing a volatile correction. The supply - side daily melting volume remained at a low level, and there were no obvious restart plans in the short term. On the demand - side, downstream processors were gradually entering the holiday mode. Although there was some rush - work in certain areas, the overall restocking intention was weak, and the speculative demand from traders was also inactive. The consumption side remained sluggish. In terms of inventory, despite the low production driving the continuous reduction of factory inventory, the current inventory level was still significantly higher than the same period in previous years. Downstream players generally maintained a low - inventory operation strategy, and procurement was mostly for immediate needs. In the spot market, some manufacturers tried to raise prices at the beginning of the week, but due to the decline in futures prices and insufficient actual order support, the price increase was not fully implemented. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of the glass market remained in a loose balance, with no obvious marginal drivers. It was expected that the futures market would continue to fluctuate widely in the short term, with the main contract reference range between 1015 - 1200 yuan/ton [13][14]. Soda Ash Market - Last week, the soda ash market continued to show a weak and volatile pattern. Fundamentally, the industry's operating rate on the supply - side remained at a high level, and the overall market supply was abundant. The demand - side remained weak, with downstream enterprises being cautious in procurement, mostly focusing on low - price immediate needs. The market trading atmosphere was generally dull. As a result, new orders from manufacturers were mediocre, and although the enterprise inventory had a slight reduction, the overall pressure still existed. Currently, the supply - demand game in the soda ash market continued, and there were no obvious driving factors for the market. It was expected that the market would continue to undergo weak consolidation in the short term, with the main contract reference price range between 1123 - 1310 yuan/ton [62][63]. 3. Summary by Directory Glass Report 01. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Price**: As of January 17, 2026, the spot market price of float glass was 1020 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The closing price of the main glass futures contract was 1103 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41 yuan/ton from the previous week. The basis was - 83 yuan/ton, an increase of 41 yuan/ton from the previous week [13][19]. - **Cost and Profit**: The weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas as fuel was - 164.4 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.00 yuan/ton from the previous week. The low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3850 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton from the previous week. The weekly average profit of producing float glass with coal as fuel was - 69.01 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.82 yuan/ton from the previous week. The weekly average profit of producing float glass with petroleum coke as fuel was 3.93 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.71 yuan/ton from the previous week [13][29][32]. - **Supply**: As of January 17, 2026, the weekly output of national float glass was 105.23 tons, a decrease of 0.693 tons from the previous week. The number of operating production lines was 212, unchanged from the previous week, and the operating rate was 71.48% [13][37]. - **Demand**: According to WIND data, from January to November 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 78701.74 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.80%. In November, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 6719.74 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.93%. According to CAAM data, from January to November, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 3123.10/3112.70 million vehicles [13][43][46]. - **Inventory**: As of January 17, 2026, the national float glass factory inventory was 5301.3 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 250.50 million heavy boxes from the previous week. The factory inventory in the Shahe area was 190.32 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 71.04 million heavy boxes from the previous week. It was expected that the inventory would continue to decrease this week, with an estimated value of 5050.8 million heavy boxes [13][51]. 02. Futures and Spot Market - **Glass Basis**: As of January 17, 2026, the spot market price of float glass was 1020 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The closing price of the main glass futures contract was 1103 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41 yuan/ton from the previous week. The basis was - 83 yuan/ton, an increase of 41 yuan/ton from the previous week [19]. - **Glass Inter - month Spread**: As of January 17, 2026, the 01 - 05 spread of glass was - 159 yuan/ton (- 39), the 05 - 09 spread was - 107 yuan/ton (- 17), the 09 - 01 spread was 266 yuan/ton (+ 56), and the open interest reached 159.10 million lots [22]. 03. Profit and Cost - **Float Glass Profit and Cost**: As of January 17, 2026, the weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas as fuel was - 164.4 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.00 yuan/ton from the previous week. The low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3850 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton from the previous week. The weekly average profit of producing float glass with coal as fuel was - 69.01 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.82 yuan/ton from the previous week. The weekly average profit of producing float glass with petroleum coke as fuel was 3.93 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.71 yuan/ton from the previous week [29][32]. 04. Supply and Demand - **Glass Production and Operating Rate**: As of January 17, 2026, the weekly output of national float glass was 105.23 tons, a decrease of 0.693 tons from the previous week. The number of operating production lines was 212, unchanged from the previous week, and the operating rate was 71.48% [37]. - **Glass Demand**: As of January 17, 2026, the downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 9.3 days, an increase of 0.70 days from the previous week. The operating rate of Low - e glass was 44.10%, unchanged from the previous week. According to WIND data, from January to November 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 78701.74 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.80%. In November, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 6719.74 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.93%. According to CAAM data, from January to November, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 3123.10/3112.70 million vehicles [40][43][46]. 05. Inventory - As of January 17, 2026, the national float glass factory inventory was 5301.3 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 250.50 million heavy boxes from the previous week. The factory inventory in the Shahe area was 190.32 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 71.04 million heavy boxes from the previous week. It was expected that the inventory would continue to decrease this week, with an estimated value of 5050.8 million heavy boxes [51]. Soda Ash Report 01. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Price**: As of January 17, 2026, the spot market price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1142 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46 yuan/ton from the previous week. The closing price of the main soda ash futures contract was 1192 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton from the previous week. The basis was - 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous week [62][68]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of January 17, 2026, the 01 - 05 spread of soda ash was - 76 yuan/ton (+ 9), the 05 - 09 spread was - 65 yuan/ton (+ 3), the 09 - 01 spread was 141 yuan/ton (- 12), and the open interest reached 159.10 million lots. The weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 183.3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37.45 yuan/ton from the previous week. The weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 112 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton from the previous week [62][71][79]. - **Supply**: As of January 17, 2026, the weekly output of soda ash was 77.53 tons, an increase of 2.17 tons from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 86.82%. The output of heavy soda ash was 41.38 tons, an increase of 0.93 tons from the previous week. The output of light soda ash was 36.15 tons, an increase of 1.24 tons from the previous week [62][90][93]. - **Demand**: As of January 17, 2026, the weekly output of national float glass was 105.23 tons, a decrease of 0.693 tons from the previous week. The number of operating production lines was 212, unchanged from the previous week, and the operating rate was 71.48%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in November reached 289 tons [62][96]. - **Inventory**: As of January 17, 2026, the soda ash factory inventory was 157.5 tons, an increase of 0.23 tons from the previous week. The inventory available days were 13.06 days, an increase of 0.02 days from the previous week. The heavy soda ash factory inventory was 73.8 tons, an increase of 0.18 tons from the previous week. The light soda ash factory inventory was 83.7 tons, an increase of 0.05 tons from the previous week. It was expected that the inventory would slightly decrease this week, with an estimated value of 157.27 tons [62][101][104]. 02. Futures and Spot Market - **Soda Ash Basis**: As of January 17, 2026, the spot market price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1142 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46 yuan/ton from the previous week. The closing price of the main soda ash futures contract was 1192 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton from the previous week. The basis was - 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous week [68]. - **Soda Ash Inter - month Spread**: As of January 17, 2026, the 01 - 05 spread of soda ash was - 76 yuan/ton (+ 9), the 05 - 09 spread was - 65 yuan/ton (+ 3), the 09 - 01 spread was 141 yuan/ton (- 12), and the open interest reached 159.10 million lots [71]. 03. Profit and Cost - **Soda Ash Profit**: As of January 17, 2026, the weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 183.3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37.45 yuan/ton from the previous week. The weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 112 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton from the previous week [79]. - **Raw Material Cost**: As of January 17, 2026, the price of thermal coal arriving at Qinhuangdao Port was 704 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton from the previous week. The low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3850 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton from the previous week. The price of raw salt in the northwest region was 215 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2325 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous week [82][85]. 04. Supply and Demand - **Soda Ash Production**: As of January 17, 2026, the weekly output of soda ash was 77.53 tons, an increase of 2.17 tons from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 86.82%. The output of heavy soda ash was 41.38 tons, an increase of 0.93 tons from the previous week. The output of light soda ash was 36.15 tons, an increase of 1.24 tons from the previous week [90][93]. - **Soda Ash Demand**: As of January 17, 2026, the weekly output of national float glass was 105.23 tons, a decrease of 0.693 tons from the previous week. The number of operating production lines was 212, unchanged from the previous week, and the operating rate was 71.48%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in November reached 289 tons [96]. 05. Inventory - As of January 17, 2026, the soda ash factory inventory was 157.5 tons, an increase of 0.23 tons from the previous week. The inventory available days were 13.06 days, an increase of 0.02 days from the previous week. The heavy soda ash factory inventory was 73.8 tons, an increase of 0.18 tons from the previous week. The light soda ash factory inventory was 83.7 tons, an increase of 0.05 tons from the previous week. It was expected that the inventory would slightly decrease this week, with an estimated value of 157.27 tons [101][104].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc ore port inventory decreased slightly, and the import TC of zinc concentrate declined marginally. However, the rise in zinc price slightly increased zinc smelting profit, but the industrial situation showed no significant improvement. Zinc ingot social inventory decreased slightly, and the Shanghai-London ratio stagnated and then declined. Since December 24, 2025, the domestic zinc-copper ratio reached a new low since the listing of Shanghai zinc in 2007, and since January 9, 2026, the domestic zinc-aluminum ratio reached a new low since 2013. Zinc price still has significant room to catch up compared to copper and aluminum. Currently, zinc price is still in the process of following the sector to make up for its macro attributes. On Friday, along with the decline of silver, copper, and aluminum, zinc price gave back some of its gains. However, in the double-loose cycle, the non-ferrous sector is still regarded as bullish. Subsequently, it is necessary to observe the trends of leading varieties within the sector and the Shanghai-London ratio [11]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment - **Price Review**: On Friday, the Shanghai Zinc Index closed down 1.38% at 24,746 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 253,000 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday afternoon, LME Zinc 3S fell 41 to 3,264 US dollars/ton compared to the same period of the previous day, with a total position of 231,400 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was 24,800 yuan/ton, with a Shanghai basis of 30 yuan/ton, a Tianjin basis of - 30 yuan/ton, a Guangdong basis of - 5 yuan/ton, and a Shanghai-Guangdong price difference of 35 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 33,600 tons. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets was 106,500 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons compared to January 12. The basis in the Shanghai area of the domestic market was 30 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - consecutive contract was - 75 yuan/ton. **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 106,700 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 8,600 tons. The basis of the overseas cash - 3S contract was - 27.62 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was 26.99 US dollars/ton. **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai-London ratio was 1.092, and the profit and loss of zinc ingot imports was - 2,197.64 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industrial Data**: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 1,500 yuan/metal ton, and the import TC index was 33 US dollars/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 249,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate was 617,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 53.48%, with a raw material inventory of 11,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 380,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 49.52%, with a raw material inventory of 10,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 12,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 55.88%, with a raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 6,000 tons. According to the LME announcement, starting from April 14, 2026, it will no longer accept further deliveries of the special high - purity zinc brands YP - SHG produced by YoungPoong Company, KZ - SHG99.995 produced by Korea Zinc Co., Ltd., and the lead brand KZ - LEAD [11]. 3.2 Macro Analysis Although a large number of macro - related charts are presented, no specific analysis text is provided. 3.3 Supply Analysis - **Zinc Ore Production and Import**: In December 2025, the zinc ore production was 287,800 metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 5.85% and a month - on - month change of - 7.58%. From January to December, the total zinc ore production was 3,669,800 metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of - 0.86%. In November 2025, the net import of zinc ore was 519,000 dry tons, with a year - on - year change of 14.1% and a month - on - month change of 52.3%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of zinc ore was 4,859,100 dry tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 34.2% [25]. - **Total Supply and Inventory of Zinc Ore**: In November 2025, the total domestic supply of zinc ore was 545,000 metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 8.8% and a month - on - month change of 12.6%. From January to November, the cumulative domestic supply of zinc ore was 5,568,600 metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.1%. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 249,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate was 617,000 physical tons [27]. - **Zinc Ingot Production and Import**: In December 2025, the zinc ingot production was 552,000 tons, with a year - on - year change of 6.9% and a month - on - month change of - 7.2%. From January to December, the total zinc ingot production was 6,834,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.4%. In November 2025, the net import of zinc ingots was - 23,000 tons, with a year - on - year change of - 160.1% and a month - on - month change of - 275.2%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of zinc ingots was 257,800 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of - 41.5% [33]. - **Total Supply of Zinc Ingot**: In November 2025, the total domestic supply of zinc ingots was 572,200 tons, with a year - on - year change of 4.4% and a month - on - month change of - 9.2%. From January to November, the cumulative domestic supply of zinc ingots was 6,539,300 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 6.9% [35]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - **Initial - Stage Operating Rate and Inventory**: The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 53.48%, with a raw material inventory of 11,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 380,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 49.52%, with a raw material inventory of 10,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 12,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 55.88%, with a raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 6,000 tons [39]. - **Apparent Demand for Zinc Ingot**: In November 2025, the apparent demand for domestic zinc ingots was 603,800 tons, with a year - on - year change of 8.9% and a month - on - month change of - 1.0%. From January to November, the cumulative apparent demand for domestic zinc ingots was 6,407,300 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.8% [41]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Zinc Ingot Supply - Demand Balance**: In November 2025, the domestic zinc ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of 31,600 tons. From January to November, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply - demand gap was a surplus of 131,900 tons [52]. - **Overseas Zinc Ingot Supply - Demand Balance**: In October 2025, the overseas refined zinc supply - demand gap was a shortage of 28,000 tons. From January to October, the cumulative overseas refined zinc supply - demand gap was a surplus of 78,000 tons [55]. 3.6 Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 33,600 tons. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets was 106,500 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons compared to January 12. The basis in the Shanghai area of the domestic market was 30 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - consecutive contract was - 75 yuan/ton [60]. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 106,700 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 8,600 tons. The basis of the overseas cash - 3S contract was - 27.62 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was 26.99 US dollars/ton [63]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai-London ratio was 1.092, and the profit and loss of zinc ingot imports was - 2,197.64 yuan/ton [66]. - **Position Analysis**: The net long position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai zinc decreased, the net long position of investment funds in London zinc declined, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased. From the perspective of positions, it is short - term bearish [69].

结构性降息后，降准降息空间仍存 国债周报 2025/01/17 蒋文斌（宏观金融组） 0755-23375128 jiangwb@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3048844 交易咨询号：Z0017196 程靖茹（联系人） chengjr@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03133937 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 流动性 02 期现市场 05 利率及汇率 03 主要经济数据 01 | 国债基本面评估 | 估值 驱动 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 基差 经济 | 价格 | 政策 | 流动性 | 贴水 | | 多空评分 | -1 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | | 简评 | 基本面改善仍需观 净基差偏低 察 | 价格适中 | 政策空档期 | 流动性压力有望缓 解 | 贴水偏低 | | | 近期经济数据显示内需仍有待修复，外需在关税扰动下有所承压。当前债市向下调整空间有限，往后看资金面有望延续宽 | | | | | | 小结 | 松，随着关税扰动及外需的不确定性增强，后续经济稳增长压力仍存。宽货币政策的方 ...