1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market this week was positive, but the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate at the bottom. The production of hot - rolled coils increased slightly, demand weakened, and inventory continued to decline slightly. The production of rebar increased against the season, demand declined, and inventory increased slightly. Although the previous sentiment in the commodity market was strong, the black - series products still oscillated in the bottom range and were sensitive to news. The actual terminal demand for steel is still weak, and the short - term macro level is in a policy window period. Attention should be paid to the destocking of hot - rolled coils and the potential impact of "dual - carbon" policies on the supply - demand pattern of the steel industry [11][12][13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: This week, the total rebar production was 1.91 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.50% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.27%. The cumulative production was 3.7926 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.45%. The long - process production was 1.58 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.50% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.88%. The short - process production was 330,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.61% and a year - on - year increase of 15.31%. The production of hot - rolled coils was 3.06 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of about 0.9%, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 0.6%. The daily average pig iron production was 2.295 million tons, with a slight rebound in pig iron production. The rebar production continued to decline, and the hot - rolled coil production was relatively high, indicating certain pressure on the supply side. The blast furnace profit of rebar in East China remained around 68 yuan/ton, and the electric furnace profit during off - peak hours was 81 yuan/ton, which was relatively high [11] - **Demand**: This week, the apparent demand for rebar was 1.75 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.9%. The cumulative demand was 3.75 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%. The demand continued to decline, showing obvious off - season characteristics. The export of hot - rolled coils remained strong, and the comprehensive demand for hot - rolled coils was neutral [11] - **Inventory**: This week, the social inventory of rebar was 2.9 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.7% and a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. The factory inventory was 1.48 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.1% and a year - on - year increase of 21.8%. The total inventory was 4.38 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.8% and a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. The rebar inventory continued to decline, and the current inventory trend was relatively healthy. The inventory of hot - rolled coils was 3.6813 million tons. Due to the late Spring Festival this year, the destocking rhythm was slower than in previous years, and the current inventory level was relatively high [11] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Multiple charts are presented, including the price and trading volume of rebar in different regions (North, East, South), the basis and price differences of rebar futures contracts (January, May, October), the price and basis of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai for different contracts, the price differences between hot - rolled and rebar futures, the price differences between China and other regions (Japan, Southeast Asia, Europe), and the prices and price differences of cold - rolled, color - coated, and galvanized steel coils [24][26][29] 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Profit**: Charts show the disk profit of rebar and hot - rolled coils, the gross profit per ton of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils, the blast furnace and electric furnace profits of rebar, and the spot profits of rebar blast furnaces and electric furnaces [80][83][85] - **Inventory**: Charts display the total inventory, social inventory, and factory inventory of rebar, the inventory of steel billets in Tangshan and 55 rolling enterprises, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils in China, including social and factory inventories [93][102][105] 3.4 Cost Side - Charts present the ratio of rebar to iron ore and coke futures, the daily average pig iron and crude steel production, the price of square billets, the difference between rebar and billet prices, the prices of scrap steel (heavy scrap, crushed scrap), the consumption and cumulative consumption of scrap steel, and the consumption of scrap steel in electric furnace smelting [111][114][117] 3.5 Supply Side - This week, the total rebar production was 1.91 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.3%. The cumulative production was 3.793 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. The long - process production was 1.58 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.9%. The short - process production was 330,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.6% and a year - on - year increase of 15.3%. Charts also show the production, production cumulative year - on - year, and capacity utilization rate of rebar and hot - rolled coils [134][138][140] 3.6 Demand and Import - Export - Charts show the apparent consumption and cumulative year - on - year change of rebar and hot - rolled coils, the export and production volume of household appliances (refrigerators, washing machines, air conditioners), and the monthly import and export volume of steel, rebar, and plates [145][153][160]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of the PVC industry are poor. Although the comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a moderately low - level, the supply reduction is small and production is at a historical high. Domestic demand is entering the off - season, while the export also faces off - season pressure. In the short term, the expected electricity price supports PVC at the cost end. In the medium term, before substantial industry production cuts, the main strategy is to short on rallies [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: Wuhai calcium carbide price is 2400 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton week - on - week; Shandong calcium carbide price is 2780 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke is 820 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The comprehensive integrated profit of chlor - alkali continues to recover, and the profit of ethylene - based production rises, with the current valuation moderately low [11]. - **Supply**: PVC capacity utilization rate is 79.7%, up 1% month - on - month. Among them, the calcium carbide method is 79.7%, up 1.4% month - on - month; the ethylene method is 79.6%, up 0.3% month - on - month. Supply load increased slightly last week and is expected to rise further next week. The overall load in January is expected to remain high, with small production cuts and high supply pressure [11]. - **Demand**: Export resistance to India has decreased, but there is off - season pressure. The operating rates of the three major downstream industries are stable. The pipe load is 35.4%, down 0.2% month - on - month; the film load is 66.4%, unchanged month - on - month; the profile load is 30.2%, up 0.4% month - on - month. The overall downstream load is 44%, up 0.1% month - on - month. The PVC pre - sales volume last week was 90.9 tons, up 9.4 tons month - on - month [11]. - **Inventory**: Last week, factory inventory was 32.8 tons, up 1.9 tons month - on - month; social inventory was 111.4 tons, up 3.7 tons month - on - month; total inventory was 144.2 tons, up 5.6 tons month - on - month; the number of warehouse receipts decreased. With strong supply and weak demand, both exports and domestic demand are in the off - season, and it is difficult to digest the high production. PVC is expected to accumulate inventory again with the arrival of the off - season [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market The report presents multiple charts related to the PVC futures and spot market, including the term structure, East China SG - 5 price, spot basis, 5 - 9 price difference, active contract positions, trading volume, total positions, and total trading volume, but no specific text analysis is provided for these data [15][20][22]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory The report shows various charts about PVC inventory and profit, such as factory inventory, social inventory, combined factory and social inventory, warehouse receipts, and the profits of Shandong's externally - purchased calcium carbide chlor - alkali integration, calcium carbide - based PVC, ethylene - based PVC, and Inner Mongolia calcium carbide, but no specific text analysis is provided for these data [28][30][37]. 3.4 Cost Side The cost side shows a rebound in calcium carbide. The report provides charts of the prices of Wuhai and Shandong calcium carbide, calcium carbide inventory, calcium carbide operating rate, Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke price, 32% liquid caustic soda self - pick - up price in Shandong, Shandong market price of liquid chlorine, and Northeast Asian ethylene CFR spot price, but no specific text analysis is provided for these data [43][44][51]. 3.5 Supply Side The report shows the historical trend of PVC production capacity, the production capacity put into operation in 2025, the raw materials consumed by the production capacity put into operation in 2025, and the operating rates of calcium carbide - based PVC, ethylene - based PVC, and overall PVC, as well as the weekly production volume, but no specific text analysis is provided for these data [55][59][64]. 3.6 Demand Side - **Domestic Demand**: The operating rates of the three major downstream industries are stable, gradually entering the off - season. The report provides charts of the operating rates of PVC downstream industries such as pipes, films, and profiles, but no specific text analysis is provided for these data [70][71]. - **Export Demand**: Exports continued to decline in November. The report provides charts of PVC export volume, export volume to India, pre - sales volume, and the rolling cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's housing completion area, but no specific text analysis is provided for these data [73][74][80].

宏观情绪偏暖， 基本面拐点仍需等待 氧化铝周报 2026/01/10 王梓铧（联系人） 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130785 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估 04 需求端 02 期现价格 05 供需平衡 03 供给端 06 库存 01 周度评估 周度要点小结 ◆ 期货价格：截至1月9日下午3时，氧化铝指数周内上涨2.72%至2830元/吨，持仓增加15.9万手至77.7万手。本周初有色板块做多情绪亢奋，带动氧化期货价格大幅上涨，随后逐步 回落。基差方面，山东现货价格报2595元/吨，贴水02合约94元/吨。月差方面，连1-连3月差收盘录得-128元/吨。 ◆ 现货价格：本周各地区氧化铝现货价格延续下跌趋势，广西、贵州、河南、山东、山西和新疆地区现货价格分别下跌0元/吨、下跌5元/吨、下跌10元/吨、下跌5元/吨、下跌5/吨、 下跌20元/吨。累库趋势持续，多数地区现货价格仍然承压。 ◆ 库存：周内氧化铝社会总库存累库7.6万吨至531.8万吨，其中电解铝厂内库存、氧化 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamentals of the domestic three major oils are weak due to high production in palm oil - producing areas, sluggish exports, and high domestic inventories. However, in the long - term, with Indonesia's measures such as confiscating illegal plantations and implementing the B50 plan, and the expected significant increase in the total consumption of bio - diesel oils in the US in 2026, the outlook is optimistic, and oil prices may be approaching the bottom range [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: This week, the three major domestic oils fluctuated. As of Friday, the May contract of soybean oil closed at 7,994 yuan/ton, up 132 yuan/ton or 1.68% from the previous week; the May contract of palm oil closed at 8,682 yuan/ton, up 98 yuan/ton or 1.14%; the May contract of rapeseed oil closed at 9,042 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton or 0.5%. In terms of spreads, the May - September contract spread of soybean oil was 156 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton; that of palm oil was 112 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; that of rapeseed oil was 21 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton. The basis of the May contract of soybean oil was 526 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton; that of palm oil was - 2 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton; that of rapeseed oil was 758 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry Information**: Indonesia's Energy Ministry may raise the palm oil export tax due to financial constraints. Last year, Indonesia consumed 14.2 million liters of palm - based biodiesel, a 7.6% increase from the previous year. The Energy Ministry has allocated 15.65 million liters of palm - based biodiesel for this year's blending task and plans to increase the blending ratio to 50% in the second half of the year. The Indonesian President said that Indonesia may confiscate 4 - 5 million hectares of oil palm plantations this year. The MPOB will release the December monthly supply - demand report next Monday. As of the week ending January 2, the inventory of the three major domestic oils was 2.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 200,000 tons and a week - on - week decrease of 20,000 tons [11]. - **Viewpoint Summary**: The current fundamentals are weak, but the long - term outlook is optimistic, and oil prices may be near the bottom [11]. - **Fundamentals Assessment**: The basis of soybean oil and rapeseed oil is high, while that of palm oil is low. The biodiesel spread is neutral considering inventory, and the import profit is low. Palm oil in the producing areas still has high inventory in the first quarter. Global sunflower seed production is expected to decrease by 400,000 tons, and rapeseed production will increase by 9 million tons. Global palm oil inventory is still at a low level. Overall, oil prices may be approaching the bottom range [12]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - The report presents multiple charts showing the basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil contracts, the spreads between different contracts, etc., including the basis of the May contract of palm oil, the basis of Malaysian palm oil, the basis of the May contract of soybean oil, the basis of the May contract of rapeseed oil, the spread between the May contracts of soybean oil and palm oil, the May - September contract spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil [19][20][23][25][27]. 3. Supply Side - The report shows charts of the monthly production and export of Malaysian palm oil, the production and export of Indonesian palm oil, the weekly arrival and port inventory of soybeans, the monthly import of rapeseed and rapeseed oil, reflecting the supply - side situation of the oils [31][33][34][35]. 4. Profit and Inventory - **Overall Inventory**: The report shows the total inventory of the three major domestic oils and the inventory of imported vegetable oils in India through charts [39]. - **Palm Oil**: It presents the near - month import profit of palm oil, the commercial inventory of palm oil, and the inventory of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil [41][48]. - **Soybean Oil**: It shows the spot crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the inventory of major soybean oil plants [43]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: It shows the average spot crushing profit of rapeseed along the coast and the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil [45]. 5. Cost Side - **Palm Oil**: It shows the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil [52]. - **Rapeseed Oil and Rapeseed**: It shows the import price of rapeseed oil for near - month shipments and the import cost price of Chinese rapeseed [55]. 6. Demand Side - **Oil Transactions**: It shows the cumulative transactions of palm oil and the annual cumulative transactions of soybean oil [60]. - **Biodiesel Profit**: It shows the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil) [63].

CONTENTS 目录 07 聚丙烯供给端 02 期现市场 徐绍祖（联系人） 春检将至， 持续反弹 聚烯烃周报 2026/01/10 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号： Z0022675 05 聚乙烯库存&进出口 08 聚丙烯库存&进出口 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 聚乙烯供给端 03 成本端 06 聚乙烯需求端 09 聚丙烯需求端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 聚烯烃周度策略 【行情资讯】 政策端：国际地缘冲突升级，美国将接管委内瑞拉石油出口。 估值：聚乙烯周度涨幅（期货＞现货＞成本），聚丙烯周度涨幅（期货＞成本＞现货）。 成本端：上周WTI原油下跌-3.38%，Brent原油下跌-4.72%，煤价上涨3.43%，甲醇上涨3.94%，乙烯下跌-0.89%，丙烯上涨1.40%，丙 烷上涨1.87%。成本端支撑尚存。 供应端：PE产能利用率83.39%，环比上涨1.24%，同比去年下降-3.17%，较5年同期下降-8.36%。PP产能利用率73.85%，环比下降- 3.97%，同比去年下降-7.22%，较5年同期下降-17. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report From the perspective of the industrial situation, the visible inventory of zinc ore has increased slightly, the imported TC of zinc concentrate has declined again, the zinc smelting profit has slowly increased with the rise of zinc price, and the social inventory of zinc ingots has slightly increased. There has been no obvious improvement in the industrial situation. From the perspective of sector sentiment, the non - farm payrolls data in December fell short of expectations. Since December 24, 2025, the domestic zinc - copper ratio has broken through the lowest level since the listing of Shanghai zinc in 2007. Since January 9, 2026, the domestic zinc - aluminum ratio has broken through the lowest level since 2013. The zinc price still has a large room for catch - up compared with copper and aluminum. It is expected that the zinc price will mainly fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment - **Price Review**: Last Friday, the Shanghai Zinc Index closed up 0.01% at 24,007 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 218,100 lots. As of 15:00 last Friday, LME Zinc 3S fell 17.5 to $3,152.5/ton compared with the same period of the previous day, with a total position of 232,800 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was 24,030 yuan/ton, with a Shanghai basis of 90 yuan/ton, a Tianjin basis of 20 yuan/ton, a Guangdong basis of 20 yuan/ton, and a Shanghai - Guangdong price difference of 70 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets was 113,400 tons, a decrease of 600 tons compared with January 5. The futures inventory of zinc ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 38,900 tons. The basis in the Shanghai area of the domestic market was 90 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 50 yuan/ton. **Overseas Structure**: LME zinc ingot inventory was 108,000 tons, and LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 8,200 tons. The basis of the cash - 3S contract in the overseas market was - $42.57/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $9.25/ton. **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.094, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was - 1,887.04 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industrial Data**: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 1,500 yuan/metal ton, and the imported TC index was 38 dollars/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 266,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate was 617,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 52.98%, with a raw material inventory of 14,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 363,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 51.73%, with a raw material inventory of 11,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 10,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 58.51%, with a raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 5,000 tons [11]. 3.2 Macro - analysis The report presents multiple charts related to the US fiscal and debt situation, the Fed's balance sheet, dollar liquidity, manufacturing PMIs of China and the US, and new and unfilled orders in the US manufacturing and non - ferrous metal manufacturing industries, but no specific analysis text is provided [14][16][19][20]. 3.3 Supply Analysis - **Zinc Ore Supply**: In December 2025, the domestic zinc ore output was 287,800 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 5.85% and a month - on - month change of - 7.58%. From January to December, the total zinc ore output was 3,669,800 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 0.86%. In November 2025, the net import of zinc ore was 519,000 dry tons, a year - on - year change of 14.1% and a month - on - month change of 52.3%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of zinc ore was 4,859,100 dry tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 34.2%. In November 2025, the total domestic zinc ore supply was 545,000 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 8.8% and a month - on - month change of 12.6%. From January to November, the cumulative domestic zinc ore supply was 5,568,600 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.1%. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 266,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate was 617,000 physical tons [25][27]. - **Zinc Ingot Supply**: In December 2025, the zinc ingot output was 552,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 6.9% and a month - on - month change of - 7.2%. From January to December, the total zinc ingot output was 6,834,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.4%. In November 2025, the net import of zinc ingots was - 23,000 tons, a year - on - year change of - 160.1% and a month - on - month change of - 275.2%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of zinc ingots was 257,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 41.5%. In November 2025, the total domestic zinc ingot supply was 572,200 tons, a year - on - year change of 4.4% and a month - on - month change of - 9.2%. From January to November, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply was 6,539,300 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 6.9% [33][35]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - **Initial - Stage Operating Rate and Zinc Purchasing Volume**: The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 52.98%, with a raw material inventory of 14,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 363,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 51.73%, with a raw material inventory of 11,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 10,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 58.51%, with a raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 5,000 tons [39]. - **Apparent Demand for Zinc Ingots**: In November 2025, the domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 603,800 tons, a year - on - year change of 8.9% and a month - on - month change of - 1.0%. From January to November, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 6,407,300 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.8% [41]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Inventory - **Zinc Ingot Inventory**: The report shows various inventory data of zinc ingots, including upstream finished - product factory inventory, downstream raw - material inventory, in - transit inventory, bonded - area inventory, social inventory, and total inventory, but no specific numerical summaries are provided in the text. - **Zinc Ingot Balance**: In November 2025, the domestic zinc ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of - 31,600 tons. From January to November, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply - demand gap was a surplus of 131,900 tons. In October 2025, the overseas refined zinc supply - demand gap was a shortage of 28,000 tons. From January to October, the cumulative overseas refined zinc supply - demand gap was a surplus of 78,000 tons [52][55]. 3.6 Price Outlook - **Domestic and Overseas Basis Spreads**: **Domestic Structure**: The social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets was 113,400 tons, a decrease of 600 tons compared with January 5. The futures inventory of zinc ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 38,900 tons, the basis in the Shanghai area of the domestic market was 90 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 50 yuan/ton. **Overseas Structure**: LME zinc ingot inventory was 108,000 tons, and LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 8,200 tons. The basis of the cash - 3S contract in the overseas market was - $42.57/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $9.25/ton. **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.094, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was - 1,887.04 yuan/ton [60][63][66]. - **Position and Price Analysis**: The net long position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai Zinc decreased, the net long position of investment funds in LME Zinc decreased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased. From a position perspective, it is short - term bearish [69].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. Core Viewpoints - At the beginning of the year, incremental funds entered the market, the financing scale increased significantly, and the market trading volume expanded rapidly. In the long - term, the policy's support for the capital market remains unchanged. In the short - term, attention should be paid to market rhythm, and the strategy is mainly to buy on dips [10][11]. - There are trading strategy suggestions such as holding a small amount of IM long positions in the long - term and holding IF long positions for six months [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Evaluation and Strategy Recommendation - Important news includes policy adjustments such as the cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for photovoltaic and battery products, government meetings emphasizing policy coordination, corporate investigations, international events, and price hikes in the consumer electronics field [10]. - Economic and corporate profit data shows that in November 2025, industrial added value increased by 4.8% year - on - year, retail sales increased by 1.3% year - on - year, and fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.6% year - on - year. The official manufacturing PMI in December was 50.1, an improvement from the previous value. M1 and M2 growth rates changed, and the increase in social financing in November was 248.85 billion yuan, with an increase of 15.97 billion yuan year - on - year. In December, the US non - farm employment and unemployment rate also changed [10]. - In the interest rate and credit environment, affected by the rise of the equity market, the 10Y Treasury bond rate and credit bond rate rebounded this week, the credit spread was basically flat, and liquidity loosened at the beginning of the year [10]. - Trading strategy suggestions include holding a small amount of IM long positions in the long - term due to medium - low valuation and long - term discount, and holding IF long positions for six months as a new round of interest rate cuts may benefit high - dividend assets [12]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - In the spot market, most domestic stock indexes such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rose, while the Hang Seng Index fell. International indexes such as the Dow Jones Index, Nasdaq Index, and S&P 500 also rose [14]. - In the futures market, various stock index futures contracts such as IF, IH, IC, and IM all rose, with different increases in different contract months [15]. 3. Economy and Corporate Earnings Economy - GDP: In the third quarter of 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 4.8%, slightly higher than the expected 4.76% but lower than the previous value of 5.2% [32]. - PMI: The official manufacturing PMI in December was 50.1, an improvement from the previous value of 49.2, indicating improvements in production and orders [10][32]. - Consumption: In November 2025, the consumption growth rate was 1.3%, down from the previous value of 2.9%, showing a continuous decline for six months [35]. - Exports: In November 2025, exports denominated in US dollars increased by 5.9% year - on - year, an improvement from the previous value of - 1.1%, mainly due to the month - on - month improvement in exports to the EU [10][35]. - Investment: In November 2025, the investment growth rate was - 2.6%, with manufacturing investment increasing by 1.9%, real estate investment at - 15.9%, and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) at - 1.1%, all continuing the downward trend [38]. Corporate Earnings - In the third - quarter report of 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of operating income was 1.24%, and the growth rate rebounded by 1.22% compared with the semi - annual report. The year - on - year growth rate of net profit was 3.89%, and the growth rate rebounded by 1.83% compared with the semi - annual report [41]. 4. Interest Rate and Credit Environment Interest Rate - Affected by the rise of the equity market, the 10Y Treasury bond rate and credit bond rate rebounded this week [10]. Credit Environment - In November 2025, the M1 growth rate was 4.9%, down from the previous value of 6.2%, and the M2 growth rate was 8.2%, up from the previous value of 8.0%, mainly affected by the base and the reduction of fiscal transfer payments. The increase in social financing in November was 248.85 billion yuan, with an increase of 15.97 billion yuan year - on - year, mainly due to the growth of short - and medium - term corporate financing [10][57]. 5. Capital Flow Inflow - This week, the newly established share of equity - biased funds was about 6.992 billion, showing a decline compared with the previous period [63]. - This week, the new margin trading balance in the two markets was about 8.5775 billion yuan, and the latest balance was 260.9921 billion yuan, reaching a new high [66]. Outflow - This month, major shareholders' shareholding reductions remained at a relatively high level. The number of IPO approvals was 3, showing an increasing trend recently [69]. 6. Valuation - The price - to - earnings ratio (TTM): The Shanghai 50 was 12.01, the CSI 300 was 14.41, the CSI 500 was 36.43, and the CSI 1000 was 49.38. - The price - to - book ratio (LF): The Shanghai 50 was 1.32, the CSI 300 was 1.52, the CSI 500 was 2.51, and the CSI 1000 was 2.63 [73].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided about the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The rubber market should shift to a bearish mindset. The subsequent supply and demand positive factors are diminishing, and it is easy for the rubber price to reach a phased high from January to February according to seasonal patterns. The high premium of RU over NR increases the price risk of RU [10][12]. - The revision of the NR delivery rules by the Shanghai International Energy Exchange is expected to increase the delivery quality and quantity of NR, making it more in line with the needs of the tire industry and rubber traders [15]. - The price of rubber is expected to turn bearish, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 for band - trading [17]. - The postponement of EUDR will lead to a series of reactions such as inventory reduction in the stocking links of rubber and tire factories, which is a short - term negative factor for demand [18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendations - In January, it is still the winter storage season, but the subsequent supply and demand positive factors are decreasing. From January to February, it is easy for the rubber price to reach a phased high according to seasonal patterns. The high premium of RU over NR increases the price risk of RU. The reports on January 4, 8, and 9 have all indicated the downward risk of the rubber price [12]. - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange has revised the NR delivery rules, which are expected to improve the quality of physical delivery commodities, standardize packaging and production processes, and optimize the management of inspection validity periods in the delivery process. It is beneficial to increase the delivery quantity of NR [15]. - The market logic: the bulls are mainly based on the expectation of winter storage in China and the positive expectation of Chinese policies, while the bears' main reasons are the dull demand reality and the expectation of poor demand due to the tariff - increasing policy. The export of rubber from Thailand and Cote d'Ivoire has increased. In the medium term, the policy expectation is the key. The rubber price is gradually turning bearish, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 for band - trading [17]. - Strategy recommendation: for the hedging strategy, go long on the NR main contract and short RU2609, with a profit - loss ratio of 1.5:1, for an indefinite period. If the spread is above 3250, gradually build positions and conduct repeated band - trading [19]. 3.2. Spot - Futures Market - Rubber maintains its usual seasonality, with prices prone to decline in the first half of the year. In 2018, 2019, and 2020, the price decline occurred earlier. In 2023, the rubber price was lower than the industry's expectation and below the rubber farmers' cost for a long time [26]. - The overseas demand expectation for rubber is marginally weakening, while the Chinese demand is stable [31]. 3.3. Profit and Ratio - The ratios of rubber to various commodities, such as copper, Brent crude oil, rebar, iron ore, the Shanghai Composite Index, and the ChiNext Index, are generally normal, without special values or points of concern [41][44][48]. 3.4. Cost Side - The market generally believes that the cost of cup rubber in Thailand is 30 - 35 Thai baht, the cost of Hainan full - latex in China is 13,500 yuan, and the cost of Yunnan full - latex in China is 12,500 - 13,000 yuan. The rubber maintenance cost is a dynamic concept. When the rubber price is high, rubber farmers are more motivated to maintain, and the cost is high; when the price is low, the cost is low [52]. 3.5. Demand Side - The full - steel tire and semi - steel tire opening rates show no special values or points of concern [57]. - The prosperity of trucks and commercial vehicles is slowly improving from a low level, and the subsequent demand is expected to gradually recover, which will affect the supporting tires. The commercial vehicle sales correspond to the domestic supporting demand [60]. - The export of truck tires is booming, but the subsequent demand is expected to decline slightly [63]. 3.6. Supply Side - Most of the rubber import data sources were last updated in December 2021, and the import data is less analyzable after the 2020 pandemic [67]. - The supply of rubber from major producing countries is generally normal, without special values or points of concern [71][75][78]. - In November 2025, the rubber production was 1,167.7 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.40% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.49%. The cumulative production was 10,263 thousand tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.24%. The export was 869.6 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.42% and a month - on - month increase of 0.27%. The cumulative export was 8,837 thousand tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.73%. The consumption was 911.6 thousand tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.22% and a month - on - month increase of 1.24%. The cumulative consumption was 10,001 thousand tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.86% [102][103]. 3.7. Butadiene and Related Products - The total capacity of butadiene with spot sales is 179.65 tons, accounting for 27.99%, and the total capacity without spot sales is 462.2 tons, accounting for 72.01%. The total capacity of butadiene rubber is 181.2 tons [117]. - Many butadiene production facilities have experienced maintenance, shutdown, and restart situations in 2025. Some production facilities have plans for future maintenance or shutdown [118]. - The weekly average operating load of butadiene rubber is 75.90%. Some enterprises have plans for shutdown or production reduction [119]. - In 2025, the new butadiene production capacity increased by 113 tons, with a growth rate of 16%. The new production capacity in Q4 2025 is expected to increase the supply of butadiene and decrease the processing profit. The import expectation of butadiene is high, which weakens the price [121][122]. 3.8. Ethylene and Related Products - In 2026 - 2027, many ethylene projects are expected to be put into production, with a total planned new capacity of 1,935 tons. During the 14th Five - Year Plan period (2026 - 2030), the Chinese ethylene industry will enter a new round of capacity expansion cycle [123][124]. - The new butadiene production capacity in 2026 is expected to be 62 tons, with a growth rate of 8.9%. The supply pressure of butadiene is expected to decrease, but it will still be under pressure, and butadiene rubber will still drag down the price among the four major rubber varieties [126][127].

聚酯逐渐走入淡季， 原料估值回调 聚酯周报 2026/01/10 马桂炎（联系人） 13923915659 magy@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0022675 从业资格号：F03136381 徐绍祖（能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03115061 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 PTA基本面 02 期现市场 05 MEG基本面 03 对二甲苯基本面 06 聚酯及终端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度总结——PX ◆ 价格表现：上周震荡运行，03合约单周下跌22元，报7238元。现货端CFR中国下跌1美元，报892美元。现货折算基差上涨3元，截至1月9日为 -28元。3-5价差下跌24元，截至1月9日为-30元。 ◆ 供应端：上周中国负荷90.9%，环比上升0.3%；亚洲负荷81.2%，环比上升0.3%。装置方面，国内变化不大，海外科威特一套82万吨装置检修， 中国台湾FCFC负荷提升。进口方面，12月韩国PX出口中国43.3万吨，同比上升4.2万吨。整体上，后续国内检修量仍然偏少，负荷持续偏高， 并且海外装置负荷有进一步上升的预期。 ◆ 需求端：PTA负荷78.2%，环比上升0.1%， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Low prices and holiday effects have stimulated better consumption. Meanwhile, the large spread between fat and standard pigs has led to hoarding and withholding sentiment. After the Winter Solstice, the spot price has risen significantly, driving a rational rebound in the futures market. In the short - term, the downward driving force of the spot is insufficient, which may continue to support the near - month contracts of the futures market to oscillate strongly. In the medium - term, the supply base is large and will be concentrated around the Spring Festival. The structural contradiction of the tight supply of large pigs will gradually be resolved over time. Pay attention to the upward pressure on the near - term contracts and wait for a rebound to sell short. For the far - end contracts, the direction of capacity reduction is certain, but the rhythm is unclear. Generally, wait for a decline to buy [11]. - The recommended trading strategies are to wait to short the 03 and 05 contracts on rallies with a profit - to - loss ratio of 2:1 in 2 - 3 months, and mainly conduct reverse arbitrage [13]. 3. Summaries According to Different Sections 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: Last week, the pig price first declined and then rose. The supply of large pigs was tight, and the upstream had a strong sentiment of withholding sales. However, the demand decreased after New Year's Day, resulting in a narrower increase in the pig price. The average trading weight increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the spread between fat and standard pigs decreased from a high level but was still large year - on - year. Specifically, the average price in Henan dropped by 0.12 yuan to 13.08 yuan/kg, in Sichuan it remained flat at 12.9 yuan/kg, and in Guangdong it dropped by 0.44 yuan to 12.72 yuan/kg. Next week, the supply will increase slightly, which has a negative impact on the market. But the resistance of the breeding side may limit the price decline. The demand support is insufficient due to the decrease in slaughter volume and the slowdown of secondary fattening. It is expected that the pig price will mainly show a slight decline [11]. - **Supply Side**: Since last year, the reduction of sows has been limited. Although the capacity reduction has accelerated since October, the theoretical supply in the first half of this year is still large due to the time - lag effect, and the fundamentals will improve in the second half. In December last year, the pig price was not weak, which slowed down the sow reduction. The theoretical出栏量 will remain high in the first half of the year, peaking in March. After April, although it will decline seasonally, the decline is small and the year - on - year figure is still high. Currently, the supply of large pigs is tight, and the spread between fat and standard pigs is high, leading to hoarding and withholding sentiment. The slaughter volume is not low, but the average trading weight has increased counter - seasonally, indicating a backlog of live inventory [11]. - **Demand Side**: Currently, the increase in slaughter volume is limited, and the support for the market is insufficient. The high price of large pigs has slowed down the pace of secondary fattening, and the support from secondary fattening demand is also insufficient [11]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Trend**: The pig price first declined and then rose last week. The supply of large pigs was tight, and the upstream had a strong sentiment of withholding sales. After New Year's Day, the demand decreased, resulting in a narrower increase in the pig price. The average trading weight increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the spread between fat and standard pigs decreased from a high level but was still large year - on - year. Next week, the supply will increase slightly, which has a negative impact on the market. But the resistance of the breeding side may limit the price decline. The demand support is insufficient due to the decrease in slaughter volume and the slowdown of secondary fattening. It is expected that the pig price will mainly show a slight decline [22]. - **Basis and Spread Trend**: The spot price rebounded, the basis of the futures market turned positive, and the inter - month spread turned to positive arbitrage [25]. 3.3. Supply Side - **Fertile Sows and Changes**: Since last year, the reduction of sows has been limited. Although the capacity reduction has accelerated since October, the theoretical supply in the first half of this year is still large due to the time - lag effect, and the fundamentals will improve in the second half. In December last year, the pig price was not weak, which slowed down the sow reduction, with the sow inventory increasing by 0.54% month - on - month according to Yongyi data [34]. - **Theoretical出栏量**: The theoretical出栏量 will remain high in the first half of the year, peaking in March. After April, although it will decline seasonally, the decline is small and the year - on - year figure is still high [42]. - **Trading and Average Weight after Slaughter**: Currently, the supply of large pigs is tight, and the spread between fat and standard pigs is high, leading to hoarding and withholding sentiment. The slaughter volume is not low, but the average trading weight has increased counter - seasonally, indicating a backlog of live inventory [49]. 3.4. Demand Side - **Slaughter Volume**: Currently, the increase in slaughter volume is limited, and the support for the market is insufficient. The high price of large pigs has slowed down the pace of secondary fattening, and the support from secondary fattening demand is also insufficient [58]. 3.5. Cost and Profit - The cost is continuously declining due to factors such as feed cost and efficiency improvement. The pig price is the weakest in the same period in many years. Despite the low cost, there has been an overall loss this year [69]. 3.6. Inventory Side - The frozen pork inventory is in a state of slow recovery and active inventory accumulation [74].