1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US economic data released last night showed resilience, and Fed officials' statements on interest rate cuts were relatively hawkish. However, it is still necessary to focus on the main line that the Fed is about to enter a new round of interest rate cut cycles [2]. - Multiple Fed officials have made hawkish statements on interest rate cuts. Cleveland Fed President Hammack said that based on current data, the Fed will not cut interest rates in September; Atlanta Fed President Bostic expects one interest rate cut this year; Kansas Fed President Schmidt said that the current inflation risk is greater than the risk in the labor market [3]. - The US Department of Justice officials wrote to Powell, stating their plan to investigate Fed Governor Cook and urging Powell to remove Cook from the council. At 10 pm tonight, Fed Chairman Powell will speak at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting. The market has already priced in his hawkish remarks, but if his statement on monetary policy shows a marginal and slight loosening, it will significantly benefit the prices of gold and silver. Strategically, it is still recommended to buy silver on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 766 - 788 yuan/gram, and the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 9031 - 9526 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - **Precious Metals Prices**: Shanghai gold (Au) fell 0.01% to 776.08 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver (Ag) rose 0.81% to 9233.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold rose 0.02% to 3382.40 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell 0.06% to 38.06 US dollars/ounce [2]. - **Other Market Indicators**: The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was reported at 4.33%, and the US dollar index was reported at 98.60 [2]. 3.2 Economic Data - **Employment Data**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending August 16 was 235,000, higher than the expected 225,000 and the previous value of 224,000. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in August was - 0.3, lower than the expected 7 and the previous value of 15.9 [2]. - **PMI Data**: The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, significantly higher than the expected 49.5 and the previous value of 49.8. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in August was 55.4, higher than the expected 54.2 [2]. 3.3 Fed Officials' Statements - Cleveland Fed President Hammack said that based on current data, the Fed will not cut interest rates in September [3]. - Atlanta Fed President Bostic expects one interest rate cut this year [3]. - Kansas Fed President Schmidt said that the current inflation risk is greater than the risk in the labor market [3]. 3.4 Market Strategy - It is recommended to buy silver on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 766 - 788 yuan/gram, and the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 9031 - 9526 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3.5 Data Tables and Graphs - **Gold and Silver Key Data Summary**: The report provides detailed data on the closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, and inventories of COMEX gold and silver, LBMA gold and silver, and SHFE gold and silver, as well as their daily changes and historical quantiles [7]. - **Price and Volume Graphs**: There are multiple graphs showing the relationship between the prices and trading volumes of COMEX gold and silver, Shanghai gold and silver, as well as the relationship between gold prices and the US dollar index, real interest rates, etc. [9][11][13] - **Near - and Far - Month Structure Graphs**: Graphs show the near - and far - month price structures of COMEX gold and silver, Shanghai gold and silver, and the price differences between different markets [19][21][33][40] - **ETF and Net Long Position Graphs**: Graphs show the total holdings of gold and silver ETFs and the net long positions of COMEX gold and silver management funds [42][48][49] - **Internal - and External - Spread Graphs**: Graphs show the internal - and external - spreads of gold and silver and their moving averages and seasonal patterns [52][53][54]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall market shows mixed trends across different sectors. In the short - term, some markets may experience volatility, while in the long - term, the direction depends on various factors such as policy, supply - demand relationship, and macro - economic conditions. For example, in the capital market, it is generally a good idea to buy on dips; in the bond market, interest rates are expected to decline in the long - run but may fluctuate in the short - term; in the commodity market, different commodities have different outlooks based on their specific supply - demand fundamentals [3][5]. Summary by Category Macro - Financial Index Futures - News includes a 500 billion "quasi - fiscal" tool for emerging industries and infrastructure, central frozen pork reserve purchases, US - EU tariff policies, and EU's purchase of US energy products. After continuous recent increases, the market may experience increased short - term volatility, but the general strategy is to buy on dips [2][3]. - The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different contract periods are provided, showing different levels of premium or discount [3]. Treasury Bonds - On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different degrees of increase. The Ministry of Finance will issue 12.5 billion yuan of treasury bonds in Hong Kong on August 27, and the 20 - year Japanese treasury bond yield reached a new high on August 21. The central bank conducted a net injection of 12.43 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations on Thursday [4]. - Fundamentally, the economy showed resilience in the first half of the year, but the PMI in July was lower than expected. The central bank maintains a supportive attitude towards funds, and interest rates are expected to decline in the long - run. Recently, due to the good stock market, the bond market may return to a wide - range oscillation pattern [5]. Precious Metals - The prices of Shanghai gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver, US 10 - year treasury bond yield, and US dollar index are presented. The US economic data shows resilience, and Fed officials' statements on interest rate cuts are hawkish, but the Fed is expected to enter a new interest rate cut cycle [6]. - Multiple Fed officials have made hawkish statements on interest rate cuts. Fed Chairman Powell will speak at the Jackson Hole central bank symposium. The market has priced in his hawkish remarks, and a slight loosening of his stance will be beneficial to gold and silver prices. It is recommended to buy silver on dips, with reference price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver futures contracts provided [7]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Before the Fed Chairman's speech, the market was cautious, but copper prices rebounded due to the US - EU tariff framework and positive manufacturing PMI data. LME inventory was flat, and domestic social and bonded area inventories decreased. The price is expected to fluctuate, with reference price ranges for Shanghai and LME copper provided [9][10]. Aluminum - The US - EU trade framework agreement improved market sentiment, and aluminum prices rose. Domestic aluminum inventory decreased, and the market consumption sentiment improved marginally. The price is expected to be supported and may continue to be strong if the Fed Chairman's speech is dovish, with reference price ranges for domestic and LME aluminum provided [11]. Zinc - Zinc prices fell. Zinc ore inventory decreased, but zinc concentrate TC was rising. Domestic social inventory of zinc ingots increased, and downstream consumption was weak. Zinc prices still face significant downward risks [12]. Lead - Lead prices rose slightly. Lead ore inventory was tight, and processing fees were declining. Primary lead production increased, while secondary lead production decreased. Demand was weak, and lead prices are expected to be weak [13][14]. Nickel - Nickel prices were weakly volatile. Nickel ore prices were stable, and nickel iron prices were flat. There was a slight shortage of MHP supply. Nickel prices may have callback pressure in the short - term but are supported in the long - term. It is recommended to buy on significant dips, with reference price ranges for Shanghai and LME nickel provided [15]. Tin - Tin prices fluctuated narrowly. Supply was restricted by slow复产 in Myanmar and transportation issues, and demand was weak in the off - season. Tin prices are expected to oscillate, with reference price ranges for domestic and LME tin provided [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate index decreased, but the futures contract price increased. Supply decreased, and inventory decreased slightly. The short - term support level of lithium prices has moved up, and attention should be paid to imports and industry news, with a reference price range for the futures contract provided [17]. Alumina - The alumina index decreased. The import window was closed, and futures inventory increased. Due to supply disturbances, the downward space of futures prices is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see, with a reference price range for the main contract provided [18]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel prices fell. The decline was due to low - price selling by arbitrage institutions, and downstream demand was weak. However, steel mills intend to support prices, and stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate [19]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy prices rose slightly. The downstream is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and cost support is strong, but upward resistance is large due to the large difference between futures and spot prices [20][21]. Black Building Materials Steel - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased. Rebar production decreased, demand was weak, and inventory continued to accumulate. Hot - rolled coil demand increased, production grew rapidly, and inventory increased for six consecutive weeks. If demand does not improve, prices may continue to decline, and attention should be paid to the impact of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions [23][24]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices rose. Overseas iron ore shipments and arrivals increased, and steel mill iron production was stable. Port inventory increased slightly, and steel mill inventory decreased slightly. Terminal demand was weak, and iron ore prices may continue to adjust in the short - term [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass prices decreased, and inventory pressure increased. Soda ash prices were stable, and inventory increased. In the short - term, glass prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and soda ash prices are expected to oscillate. In the long - term, glass prices depend on policy and demand, and soda ash prices are affected by supply - side policies and market sentiment [27][28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices oscillated slightly. Manganese silicon prices broke through the support level, and ferrosilicon prices are approaching the support line. It is recommended for investment positions to wait and see, while hedging positions can participate at appropriate times [29]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices rose. Supply may increase due to higher开工 rates, and demand can provide some support. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Polysilicon prices fell. Supply increased, and inventory decreased slowly. Prices are expected to oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to the impact of warehouse receipts on prices [33][36]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - NR and RU prices oscillated weakly after a decline. Bulls expect price increases based on seasonal and demand factors, while bears are concerned about weak demand and uncertain macro - expectations. It is recommended to wait and see, and partial closing of the long - RU2601 and short - RU2509 position is advised [38][42][43]. Crude Oil - WTI, Brent, and INE crude oil futures prices rose. Singapore's oil product inventory data shows mixed trends. Although geopolitical premiums have disappeared and the macro - environment is bearish, oil prices are undervalued, and it is a good time for left - hand side layout [44]. Methanol - Methanol futures prices rose slightly. Coal prices increased, increasing methanol production costs, but coal - based profits are still high. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak currently but may improve in the peak season. It is recommended to wait and see [45]. Urea - Urea futures prices fell. Domestic production is expected to increase, and demand is average. Current prices are weak, but the downside is limited due to low corporate profits. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [46]. Styrene - Styrene prices rose. Market sentiment is good, and cost support exists. BZN spread is low and may repair. Supply is increasing, and demand is rising at the end of the off - season. Prices are expected to rise with cost [47][48]. PVC - PVC prices fell. Production increased, demand decreased, and inventory increased. The company's profit is high, and the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait and see [49]. Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol prices fell. Supply increased, and demand recovered slightly. Inventory decreased slightly, but it is expected to increase in the medium - term. Valuation is high, and prices may decline [50]. PTA - PTA prices rose. Supply decreased due to unexpected maintenance, and demand improved. Inventory decreased, and processing fees are expected to repair. It is recommended to buy on dips following PX [51][52]. p - Xylene - PX prices rose. PX production is high, and downstream PTA has many unexpected maintenance. PX inventory is expected to be low, and valuation has support but limited upside. It is recommended to buy on dips following crude oil [53]. Polyethylene (PE) - PE prices rose. Market expects favorable policies from the Ministry of Finance, and cost support exists. Inventory is decreasing from a high level, and demand is expected to increase in the peak season. Prices are expected to oscillate upward [54]. Polypropylene (PP) - PP prices fell. Supply may increase as refinery profits recover, and demand is weak. Inventory is still under pressure, and it is recommended to buy the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [55][57]. Agricultural Products Hogs - Hog prices were mixed. Downstream demand is weak, and supply may increase. In the short - term, it is recommended to buy on dips, pay attention to medium - term pressure, and use reverse - spread strategies for far - month contracts [59]. Eggs - Egg prices were mixed. Supply is abundant, and demand is average. In the short - term, the market may fluctuate, and in the medium - term, it is recommended to sell on rebounds [60]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - US soybean prices rose. US soybean production may increase, and domestic soybean meal supply is seasonally excessive. It is recommended to buy on dips at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to supply and demand factors [61][64]. Oils and Fats - Domestic oil prices rebounded. US biodiesel policy, low inventory in Southeast Asia, and the expected B50 policy in Indonesia support oil prices. Palm oil is expected to be stable in the short - term and may rise in the fourth quarter [65][67]. Sugar - Sugar prices rose. Brazilian sugar production may decrease, and international sugar prices may not rebound significantly. Domestic sugar imports are expected to increase, and prices may decline [68][70]. Cotton - Cotton prices oscillated. The USDA report is positive, and the suspension of import tariffs in India is beneficial. However, downstream consumption is average, and prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term [71].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean import cost is on a stable and slightly rising trend, but the upward momentum is questionable due to the global surplus of protein raw materials. The domestic soybean meal market is in a seasonal supply surplus, with potential de - stocking in September. Suggest buying at low - cost intervals and paying attention to profit margins, supply pressure, and Sino - US tariff developments [2][4]. - The fundamentals support the upward trend of the oil price center. Palm oil prices are expected to be strong, with a potential increase in the fourth quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy. Currently, it is expected to fluctuate upward [7][9]. - The international sugar price is unlikely to rebound significantly, and the domestic Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to continue to decline due to increasing imports and high spot import profits [11][12]. - Short - term cotton prices may continue to oscillate at a high level. Although the USDA report is positive and Sino - US tariff policies are favorable, the downstream consumption is average and the destocking speed has slowed down [14][15]. - Egg prices may fluctuate in the short term, and in the medium term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the rebound as the supply is large and the price performance in the peak season is weak [17][18]. - The pig price may oscillate in a range. In the short term, consider buying at low prices, in the medium term, pay attention to the upper pressure, and for far - month contracts, use the reverse spread strategy [20][21]. 3. Summary by Directory Soybean/Meal - **Important Information**: On Thursday night, US soybeans closed higher. The third - day result of the PROFARMER tour showed an increasing yield per unit. The US Soybean Association called for an agreement between Trump and China. The weekly sales report showed that the new US soybean sales exceeded expectations. The Brazilian premium slightly decreased, and the soybean import cost was stable. There were rumors of domestic soybean meal reserves release, causing the futures price to fall. The domestic soybean meal spot basis was stable, with general trading and good提货. The downstream inventory days decreased slightly to 8.35 days. Last week, 2.339 million tons of soybeans were crushed, and this week, 2.4043 million tons are expected to be crushed. The US soybean - producing areas are expected to have less rainfall in the next two weeks. The USDA significantly reduced the planting area, and the US soybean production decreased by 1.08 million tons month - on - month [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The soybean import cost is rising slightly and stably. The domestic soybean meal market is in a seasonal supply surplus, and it is expected to start de - stocking in September. It is recommended to buy at low - cost intervals and pay attention to profit margins, supply pressure, and Sino - US tariff developments [4]. Oil - **Important Information**: From August 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 23.67% compared to the same period last month. The first 15 - day exports are expected to increase by 16.5% - 21.3%, and the first 20 - day exports are expected to increase by 13.61% - 17.5%. From August 1 - 15, the palm oil yield per unit decreased by 1.78% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.51%, and the production increased by 0.88%. The first 20 - day production is expected to increase by 0.3%. India purchased rapeseed oil for the first time in five years. As of the end of June, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 13% month - on - month to 2.53 million tons, with exports of 3.61 million tons and production of 5.29 million tons in June [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The US biodiesel policy draft, the limited production potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, the low inventory of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, and the expected Indonesian B50 policy support the oil price center. If the demand countries maintain normal imports and the palm oil production is at a medium level, the origin inventory may remain stable, supporting the origin price. There is an expected increase in the fourth quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy. Currently, it is expected to fluctuate upward [9]. Sugar - **Important Information**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price rose. The closing price of the January contract was 5,688 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton or 0.21%. The spot prices of sugar groups in Guangxi, Yunnan, and processing plants increased slightly. The SCA Brasil estimated that the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in this season will be 590.4 million tons, a decrease of about 5% compared to the 2024/25 season, and the sugar content per ton will decrease by 5% [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Internationally, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil has increased significantly since July, and the new season in the Northern Hemisphere's major producing countries such as India is expected to have increased production. Domestically, imports will increase in the next two months, and the spot import profit outside the quota is at a five - year high. The Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to continue to decline [12]. Cotton - **Important Information**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to oscillate. The closing price of the January contract was 14,030 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton or 0.18%. The spot price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton decreased. As of August 17, 2025, the US cotton good - to - excellent rate was 55%, up two percentage points from the previous week and 13 percentage points higher than the same period last year. India suspended the 11% import tariff on cotton until September 30 [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: The USDA report was more positive than expected, and the suspension of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs for 90 days is favorable for domestic cotton prices. However, the downstream consumption is average, the开机率 is at a low level, and the cotton destocking speed has slowed down. Short - term cotton prices may continue to oscillate at a high level [15]. Egg - **Important Information**: The national egg price was stable or decreased. The average price in the main producing areas decreased by 0.03 yuan to 3.16 yuan/jin. The egg supply is sufficient, the market demand is average, and today's egg price may be stable or decline [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply of newly - laid eggs is increasing, and the number of culled hens is limited, resulting in a large supply. The egg price performance in the peak season is weaker than expected, and the near - month contracts are particularly weak. In the short term, the futures price may fluctuate, and in the medium term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the rebound [18]. Pig - **Important Information**: The domestic pig price was mixed. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.09 yuan to 13.71 yuan/kg, and that in Sichuan remained unchanged at 13.57 yuan/kg. The downstream demand is weak, the market's bullish sentiment has weakened, and the farmers' slaughter volume may increase, so the pig price may be stable or decline today [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: The spot price has temporarily stabilized due to previous pressure release and bottom - support sentiment. The futures price has risen and then fallen. The market is waiting for the supply - demand game at the end of the third quarter. In the short term, consider buying at low prices, in the medium term, pay attention to the upper pressure, and for far - month contracts, use the reverse spread strategy [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current oil price is relatively undervalued, and its static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts are still favorable. It is a good time for left - hand side layout. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [2] - For methanol, the current situation is weak, but demand is expected to improve with the arrival of the peak season. It is recommended to wait and see [4] - For urea, the current situation is weak, but the downside space is limited due to low corporate profits. It is advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [6] - For rubber, it is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to wait and see. Partial closing of the long RU2601 and short RU2509 positions can be considered [11] - For PVC, the fundamentals are poor with strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. It is recommended to wait and see [13] - For styrene, the BZN spread may be repaired, and the port inventory may decline from a high level. The styrene price may fluctuate upward following the cost side [15][16] - For polyethylene, the price may fluctuate upward, with the long - term contradiction shifting from cost - driven decline to South Korean ethylene clearance policy [18] - For polypropylene, there is high inventory pressure in the context of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [19] - For PX, it is expected to maintain low inventory, with support at the lower end of the valuation but limited upside in the short term. Pay attention to long - position opportunities following the oil price on dips during the peak season [21][22] - For PTA, the supply is in a de - stocking pattern, and the processing fee is expected to be repaired. Pay attention to long - position opportunities following PX on dips [23] - For ethylene glycol, the fundamentals are expected to turn from strong to weak, and there is downward pressure on the medium - term valuation [24] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Energy (Crude Oil) - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.34, or 0.54%, to $63.48; Brent main crude oil futures rose $0.63, or 0.94%, to $67.67; INE main crude oil futures rose 8.80 yuan, or 1.85%, to 484.7 yuan [1] - **Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventory increased by 0.91 million barrels to 15.15 million barrels, a 6.42% increase; diesel inventory increased by 0.37 million barrels to 9.70 million barrels, a 3.98% increase; fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.61 million barrels to 23.04 million barrels, a 6.53% decrease; total refined oil inventory decreased by 0.33 million barrels to 47.89 million barrels, a 0.67% decrease [1] 3.2 Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 21, the 01 contract rose 1 yuan/ton to 2425 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 5 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 115 [4] - **Supply**: Coal prices have bottomed out and risen, increasing methanol costs, but coal - to - methanol profits are still at a high level compared to the same period. Domestic production starts are gradually bottoming out and increasing, and overseas plant starts have returned to the same - period high, with imports expected to increase [4] - **Demand**: Most traditional demand sectors have low profits. Olefin profits have improved, but port production starts are low, and demand is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the actual demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" [4] 3.3 Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 21, the 01 contract fell 12 yuan/ton to 1764 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 24 [6] - **Supply**: Domestic production starts have changed from a decline to an increase. Although corporate profits are still low, they are expected to gradually bottom out and recover. The overall supply is relatively loose [6] - **Demand**: Domestic agricultural demand is ending and entering the off - season. Compound fertilizer production starts have further increased, with high finished product inventories. Exports are progressing steadily, and overall demand is average [6] 3.4 Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU prices declined and then fluctuated weakly [8] - **Supply and Demand Factors**: Bulls believe that the weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may help increase rubber production to a limited extent, and the seasonal pattern usually turns upward in the second half of the year, with improved demand expectations in China. Bears think that macro expectations are uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the positive impact on supply may be less than expected [9] - **Inventory and Production Starts**: As of August 21, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.54%, up 1.47 percentage points from the previous week and 6.25 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.38%, up 2.13 percentage points from the previous week and down 4.28 percentage points from the same period last year. As of August 10, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 127.8 tons, a decrease of 1.1 tons or 0.85% from the previous period [10] 3.5 PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract fell 4 yuan to 5004 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4740 (+20) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 264 (+24) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 132 (+5) yuan/ton [13] - **Supply and Demand**: The overall production start of PVC was 80.3%, up 0.9% from the previous period. The downstream demand start was 42.8%, down 0.1% from the previous period. Factory inventory was 32.7 tons (-1), and social inventory was 81.2 tons (+3.5). The supply is strong, demand is weak, and the valuation is high [13] 3.6 Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price and futures price of styrene both increased, and the basis strengthened [15] - **Supply and Demand**: The cost side still has support, the BZN spread is at a relatively low level in the same period, with large upward repair space. The supply side has increasing production starts, and the port inventory has been continuously increasing significantly. At the end of the seasonal off - season, the demand side's overall operating rate of three S products has been rising [15][16] 3.7 Polyolefins 3.7.1 Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polyethylene increased [18] - **Supply and Demand**: The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and the cost side has support. The overall inventory is declining from a high level, and the demand side's agricultural film raw material procurement has started, with the overall operating rate stabilizing at a low level [18] 3.7.2 Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polypropylene decreased [19] - **Supply and Demand**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the production start is expected to gradually recover. The downstream demand operating rate is fluctuating at a low level. There is high inventory pressure in the context of weak supply and demand [19] 3.8 PX, PTA, and MEG 3.8.1 PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 114 yuan to 6958 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 17 dollars to 854 dollars [21] - **Supply and Demand**: The PX load is at a high level, and there are many unexpected short - term maintenance of downstream PTA. However, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX is expected to maintain low inventory [21] 3.8.2 PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 82 yuan to 4860 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 120 yuan/ton to 4810 yuan [23] - **Supply and Demand**: The PTA load decreased by 4.8% to 71.6%. The downstream load increased by 0.6% to 90%. The supply is in a de - stocking pattern, and the processing fee is expected to be repaired [23] 3.8.3 MEG - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract fell 4 yuan to 4473 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 4 yuan to 4511 yuan [24] - **Supply and Demand**: The MEG load increased by 6.2% to 73.2%. The downstream load increased by 0.6% to 90%. The port inventory decreased by 0.6 tons to 54.7 tons. The fundamentals are expected to turn from strong to weak, and there is downward pressure on the medium - term valuation [24]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to decline in a volatile manner. The demand for finished steel products is weak, the profits of steel mills are gradually shrinking, and the weakness of the futures market is becoming more prominent. If the demand cannot be effectively improved in the future, the prices may continue to decline. The raw material end is more resilient than the finished product end, and attention should be paid to the potential impact of safety inspections and environmental protection production restrictions [4]. - The prices of iron ore, manganese - silicon, and silicon - iron are affected by supply, demand, and policy sentiment. The short - term prices of iron ore may continue to adjust, and for manganese - silicon and silicon - iron, it is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, while hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities according to their own situations [7][10][11]. - The prices of industrial silicon are expected to fluctuate weakly, and the prices of polysilicon are expected to fluctuate widely. The prices of glass are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term and follow macro - sentiment fluctuations in the long term. The prices of soda ash are expected to fluctuate in the short term and the price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the upward space is limited [16][17][19][20]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3121 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton (- 0.35%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3375 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton (- 0.79%) from the previous trading day [3]. - **Spot Market**: The rebar price in Tianjin was 3280 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price in Shanghai was 3300 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The hot - rolled coil price in Lecong was 3410 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the price in Shanghai was 3420 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Rebar production decreased significantly this week, demand improved slightly but remained weak overall, and inventory continued to accumulate. For hot - rolled coils, demand continued to recover, production increased rapidly, and inventory increased for six consecutive weeks. The overall steel production is still at a high level, while the demand - side support is insufficient [4]. Iron Ore - **Futures Market**: The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 772.50 yuan/ton, up 0.46% (+ 3.50), and the position increased by 11185 lots to 451,600 lots [6]. - **Spot Market**: The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 769 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.42 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.44% [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The overseas iron ore shipments and arrivals both increased in the latest period. The daily average pig iron output was 240,750 tons, basically unchanged from last week. The port inventory continued to rise slightly, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory decreased slightly. The short - term upward increase of pig iron may be limited [7]. Manganese - Silicon and Silicon - Iron - **Futures Market**: On August 21, the main contract of manganese - silicon (SM601) closed slightly up 0.03% at 5838 yuan/ton. The main contract of silicon - iron (SF511) closed up 0.28% at 5638 yuan/ton [9][10]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of 6517 manganese - silicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot price of 72 silicon - iron in Tianjin was 5830 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [9][10]. - **Fundamentals**: The over - capacity pattern of manganese - silicon has not changed. The production of manganese - silicon has shown an upward trend recently, and the supply - side pressure remains. The demand for silicon - iron and the entire black sector may weaken marginally in the future [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Futures Market**: The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) closed at 8635 yuan/ton, up 2.92% (+ 245), and the position increased by 2630 lots to 529,075 lots [14]. - **Spot Market**: The price of 553 non - oxygen - blown industrial silicon in East China was 9050 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 415 yuan/ton. The price of 421 was 9600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 165 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamentals**: The problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand have not fundamentally changed. The production is expected to increase in August, and the demand can provide some support, but the prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [15][16]. - **Polysilicon** - **Futures Market**: The main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) closed at 51,530 yuan/ton, down 0.67% (- 345), and the position decreased by 1672 lots to 335,483 lots [16]. - **Spot Market**: The average price of N - type granular silicon was 46 yuan/kg, up 1.5 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type dense material was 48 yuan/kg, up 2 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 49 yuan/kg, up 2 yuan/kg, with a basis of - 2530 yuan/ton [16]. - **Fundamentals**: The production increased week - on - week, and the inventory reduction was limited. The prices are expected to fluctuate widely [17]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Shahe was 1147 yuan, down 9 yuan from the previous day, and the price in Central China was 1060 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.606 million weight boxes, up 0.28% from the previous week [19]. - **Fundamentals**: The glass production remains at a high level, the inventory pressure has increased slightly, and the downstream real - estate demand has not improved significantly. The prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term and follow macro - sentiment fluctuations in the long term [19]. - **Soda Ash** - **Spot Market**: The spot price was 1205 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.9108 million tons, up 0.71% from last Thursday [20]. - **Fundamentals**: The downstream demand has little fluctuation, and the production of soda ash devices fluctuates slightly. The prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the upward space is limited [20].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an energy and chemical options strategy morning report dated August 21, 2025 [2] - It covers various energy and chemical option varieties, including energy, polyolefins, polyesters, alkali chemicals, and others [3] - The recommended strategy is to construct option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered call strategies to enhance returns [3] Group 2: Underlying Futures Market Overview - The report provides the latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of multiple energy and chemical futures contracts [4] Group 3: Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR data of different option varieties are presented, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning points of the underlying market [5] Group 4: Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of option underlying assets are analyzed based on the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options [6] Group 5: Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of different option varieties are provided, including at-the-money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility [7] Group 6: Option Strategies and Recommendations Energy Options - **Crude Oil**: The fundamental analysis shows that OPEC+ will increase supply in September, and Russia will cut production. The market is in a short - term recovery with resistance. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option selling strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8] - **LPG**: The supply is abundant, and the market is short - term bearish. Option strategies include constructing a bearish call + put option selling strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] Alcohol Options - **Methanol**: The port inventory is increasing, and the market is weak. Option strategies include constructing a bearish call + put option selling strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory is expected to accumulate, and the market is in a weak and wide - range oscillation. Option strategies include constructing a volatility - selling strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] Polyolefin Options - **Polypropylene**: The PE inventory is decreasing, while the PP inventory has different trends. The market is weak. Option strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] Rubber Options - **Rubber**: The tire production has different trends in operating rates. The market is short - term weak. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option selling strategy [12] Polyester Options - **PTA**: The inventory is increasing, and the market is in a weak consolidation. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option selling strategy [13] Alkali Chemical Options - **Caustic Soda**: The production capacity utilization rate has changed, and the market is in a short - term bullish recovery. Option strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14] - **Soda Ash**: The inventory is increasing, and the market is in an oscillatory state. Option strategies include constructing a volatility - selling strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14] Other Options - **Urea**: The inventory is at a high level, and the market is in a low - level oscillation. Option strategies include constructing a bearish call + put option selling strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [15] Group 7: Option Charts - The report includes price charts, trading volume and open interest charts, PCR charts, implied volatility charts, and historical volatility cone charts of various option varieties such as crude oil, LPG, methanol, etc. [17][35][54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai Composite Index, large-cap blue-chip stocks, small and medium-cap stocks, and ChiNext stocks showed a market trend of slight fluctuations at high levels [3]. - The implied volatility of financial options gradually rose to fluctuate above the average level [3]. - For ETF options, it is suitable to construct covered strategies, neutral double-selling strategies, and vertical spread combination strategies; for stock index options, it is suitable to construct neutral double-selling strategies and arbitrage strategies between synthetic long or short options and long or short futures [3]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,766.21, up 38.92 points or 1.04%, with a trading volume of 101.75 billion yuan, a decrease of 43.4 billion yuan [4]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11,926.74, up 105.11 points or 0.89%, with a trading volume of 139.07 billion yuan, a decrease of 136.7 billion yuan [4]. - Other major indices also showed varying degrees of increases [4]. 3.2 Option Underlying ETF Market Overview - The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and trading volumes changes of various option underlying ETFs are presented, such as the Shanghai 50 ETF closing at 2.975, up 0.038 or 1.29%, with a trading volume of 10.0375 million shares, an increase of 9.9572 million shares [5]. 3.3 Option Factor - Volume and Position PCR - The volume and position PCR values and their changes of different option varieties are provided, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market [6][7]. 3.4 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Points - The pressure and support points of different option varieties are analyzed from the perspective of the exercise prices with the largest open interest of call and put options [8][10]. 3.5 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different option varieties, including at-the-money implied volatility and weighted implied volatility, is presented, with explanations of their calculation methods [11][12]. 3.6 Strategy and Recommendations - The financial option sector is divided into large-cap blue-chip stocks, small and medium-cap stocks, and ChiNext stocks, and different option strategies are recommended for each sector [13]. - For example, for the Shanghai 50 ETF, a short-biased long combination strategy can be constructed to obtain time value income [14].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an early morning strategy report on agricultural product options dated August 21, 2025 [1] - The agricultural product sector is divided into beans, oils, agricultural by - products, soft commodities, grains, and others, with option strategies provided for selected varieties in each sector [8] Group 2: Market Conditions Summary - Oilseeds and oils showed a weak and volatile trend, while oils, agricultural by - products maintained a volatile market. Soft commodity sugar had a slight fluctuation, cotton was in a weak consolidation, and grains like corn and starch had a weak and narrow - range consolidation [2] Group 3: Futures Market Data - The latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes of various option - underlying futures contracts are presented, such as the latest price of soybean No.1 (A2511) being 4,024 with a change of 2 and a trading volume of 13.90 million lots [3] Group 4: Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR data of various option varieties are provided, which are used to describe the strength of the option - underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively [4] Group 5: Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of various option - underlying assets are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options [5] Group 6: Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of various option varieties are presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its changes compared with the annual average [6] Group 7: Option Strategies for Different Varieties Oils and Oilseeds Options - **Beans (Soybean No.1, Soybean No.2)**: For soybean No.1, due to factors like the USDA's adjustment of soybean planting area and Trump's call for China to buy soybeans, the market showed a weak and volatile trend. Strategies include constructing a neutral short call + put option combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7] - **Bean Meal, Rapeseed Meal**: Bean meal showed a weak consolidation and then a rebound. Strategies involve constructing a neutral short call + put option combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9] - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil**: Palm oil showed a bullish trend. Strategies include constructing a bull call spread for directional gain, a short bullish call + put option combination, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] - **Peanuts**: Peanuts showed a weak consolidation under bearish pressure. Strategies include constructing a bear put spread for directional gain and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] Agricultural By - product Options - **Pigs**: The pig market showed a weak consolidation. Strategies include constructing a short bearish call + put option combination and a long - spot + short out - of - the - money call option strategy [11] - **Eggs**: The egg market showed a bearish trend. Strategies include constructing a bear put spread for directional gain and a short bearish call + put option combination [12] - **Apples**: Apples showed a warming - up trend. Strategies include constructing a neutral short call + put option combination [12] - **Jujubes**: Jujubes showed a short - term bullish rebound. Strategies include constructing a bull call spread for directional gain, a short bullish strangle option combination, and a long - spot + short out - of - the - money call option strategy [13] Soft Commodity Options - **Sugar**: Sugar showed a weak bearish market. Strategies include constructing a short bearish call + put option combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13] - **Cotton**: Cotton showed a short - term weak trend. Strategies include constructing a short bullish call + put option combination and a long - spot + long put + short out - of - the - money call option strategy [14] Grain Options - **Corn, Starch**: Corn showed a weak bearish trend. Strategies include constructing a bear put spread for directional gain, a short bearish call + put option combination [14]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the metal options industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - The non - ferrous metals are in a weak and volatile state, and a seller's neutral volatility strategy is recommended. - The black metals show significant fluctuations, and a short - volatility portfolio strategy is suitable. - The precious metals are consolidating at high levels with a slight decline, and a spot hedging strategy is advised [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market Overview - **Copper (CU2510)**: The latest price is 78,700, up 150 (0.19%). The trading volume is 4.84 million lots (up 2.48 million lots), and the open interest is 13.98 million lots (up 0.18 million lots) [3]. - **Aluminum (AL2510)**: The latest price is 20,565, up 75 (0.37%). The trading volume is 12.82 million lots (up 2.30 million lots), and the open interest is 22.80 million lots (down 0.67 million lots) [3]. - Other metals such as zinc, lead, nickel, etc., also have detailed price, trading volume, and open - interest data provided in the report [3]. 3.2. Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - **Copper**: The volume PCR is 0.93 (up 0.19), and the open - interest PCR is 0.88 (up 0.07) [4]. - **Aluminum**: The volume PCR is 1.26 (up 0.09), and the open - interest PCR is 0.91 (unchanged) [4]. 3.3. Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - **Copper**: The pressure point is 80,000, and the support point is 78,000 [5]. - **Aluminum**: The pressure point is 20,800, and the support point is 20,000 [5]. 3.4. Option Factors - Implied Volatility - **Copper**: The at - the - money implied volatility is 8.38%, and the weighted implied volatility is 13.00% (down 0.73%) [6]. - **Aluminum**: The at - the - money implied volatility is 9.10%, and the weighted implied volatility is 12.07% (down 0.58%) [6]. 3.5. Strategy and Recommendations - **Non - ferrous Metals (e.g., Copper)**: - **Fundamentals**: The combined inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 0.7 million tons, with the SHFE inventory increasing by 0.4 million tons to 8.6 million tons [7]. - **Market Analysis**: Since June, it has shown a bullish trend, with a high - level consolidation pattern since August [7]. - **Option Strategy**: Build a short - volatility seller's option portfolio strategy and a spot long - hedging strategy [7]. - **Precious Metals (e.g., Gold)**: - **Fundamentals**: The US CPI and core CPI data in July have different year - on - year and month - on - month changes [12]. - **Market Analysis**: Shanghai gold has been in a high - level consolidation and decline recently [12]. - **Option Strategy**: Construct a neutral short - volatility option seller's portfolio strategy and a spot hedging strategy [12]. - **Black Metals (e.g., Rebar)**: - **Fundamentals**: The social inventory of rebar increased by 6.8% week - on - week, and the factory inventory increased by 2.4% week - on - week [13]. - **Market Analysis**: Since June, it has been in a low - level consolidation and then a rebound, followed by a decline recently [13]. - **Option Strategy**: Build a bear - spread option strategy, a short - volatility strategy, and a spot long - covered call strategy [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. In the short - term, some markets may experience increased volatility, but the long - term direction depends on factors such as policy support, supply - demand balance, and cost changes [3][6]. - The "anti - involution" policy has an impact on the market, causing price fluctuations in related commodities, and the market is expected to gradually return to the fundamentals after the emotional impact fades [31]. - Different commodities have different supply - demand situations, and investors should make decisions based on specific market conditions and risk tolerance [31]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial Index Futures - The government has issued policies on local government project implementation and merger - acquisition loans. Some companies have new developments, and there are expectations of stock selling by Buffett [2]. - The basis ratios of different term contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH are given. The market may experience increased short - term volatility after continuous rises, but the general idea is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts decreased on Wednesday. The Ministry of Finance will issue RMB treasury bonds in Hong Kong, and there is a policy on tax exemption for childcare subsidies [4]. - The central bank conducted a large - scale reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net investment of 4975 billion yuan. The economic data in the first half of the year showed resilience, but the PMI data in July was lower than expected. The interest rate is expected to decline in the long - term, and the bond market may return to a wide - range shock pattern in the short - term [4][5][6]. Precious Metals - The prices of domestic and foreign gold and silver rose. Trump's team pressured the Fed's independence, which led to a rebound in precious metal prices. The speech of Fed Chairman Powell at the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting will significantly affect the prices of precious metals. It is recommended to wait for Powell's speech, and if it is dovish, consider going long on silver [7][8]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The export volume in July was high, and the apparent consumption was weaker than expected. The LME inventory increased, and the copper price fluctuated slightly higher. The domestic copper spot import was profitable, and the scrap copper substitution advantage decreased slightly. The copper price may consolidate and wait for Powell's speech for further guidance [10]. Aluminum - The domestic black - series commodities first declined and then rebounded. The aluminum ingot inventory decreased, and the aluminum price recovered after a decline. The external market was under some pressure, but the domestic aluminum price still had support due to low inventory and strong export data, and it may turn to a shock pattern in the short - term [12]. Zinc - The zinc price increased slightly. The zinc ore inventory decreased marginally, but the zinc concentrate TC was still rising. The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots was increasing, and the LME market's structural disturbance was receding. The zinc price still had a large downward risk [13]. Lead - The lead price decreased. The lead ore inventory was tight, and the processing fee was declining. The supply and demand of the lead industry were both weak, and the lead price was expected to run weakly [14]. Nickel - The nickel price fluctuated. The nickel ore price was stable, the nickel iron price had limited upward momentum, and the MHP supply was short. The downstream stainless - steel demand improvement was limited, but the nickel price had support in the long - term. It is recommended to go long on dips [15][16]. Tin - The tin price fluctuated narrowly. The supply was short - term tight, and the demand was weak in the off - season. The tin price was expected to fluctuate as the Myanmar复产 continued [17]. Carbonate Lithium - The price of carbonate lithium decreased significantly. The sentiment of long - looking funds supported by supply disturbances cooled down, and the price support level was expected to rise in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the import of lithium salts and lithium ores [18]. Alumina - The alumina index increased. The supply of domestic and foreign ores was disturbed, and the futures price had limited downward space after a sharp decline. It is recommended to wait and see [19]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel price decreased. The decline was mainly affected by low - price selling by some arbitrage institutions. The downstream procurement was cautious, and the price was expected to continue to fluctuate [20]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The price of the casting aluminum alloy contract decreased slightly. The downstream was in the off - season, and the supply and demand were both weak. The cost had strong support, but the upward resistance was increasing [21]. Black Building Materials Steel - The price of the rebar main contract increased slightly, and the hot - rolled coil price decreased slightly. The export of steel continued to be weakly volatile. The demand for rebar decreased significantly, and the inventory accumulation speed increased. The demand for hot - rolled coils recovered, and the inventory accumulation speed slowed down. If the demand cannot be effectively repaired, the steel price may decline [23][24][25]. Iron Ore - The iron ore price decreased slightly. The overseas iron ore shipment and arrival volume increased. The steel mill's iron production increased, and the port and steel mill inventory increased. The terminal demand was weak, and the iron ore price may be adjusted in the short - term [26][27]. Glass and Soda Ash - The glass price decreased, the inventory increased, and the downstream demand had not improved significantly. The glass price was expected to fluctuate in the short - term and follow the macro - sentiment in the long - term [28]. - The soda - ash price decreased slightly, the inventory increased, and the downstream demand was tepid. The soda - ash price was expected to fluctuate in the short - term and the price center may gradually rise in the long - term, but the upward space was limited [29]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon decreased. The "anti - involution" policy had an impact on the market, but the fundamental situation of over - supply of manganese silicon did not change. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities [30][31][32]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The industrial silicon price decreased. The over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand problems remained. The production in the southwest region increased rapidly, and the price was expected to fluctuate weakly [33][34]. - The polysilicon price decreased slightly. The production increased, the inventory removal was limited, and the price was expected to fluctuate widely [35][36]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - The prices of NR and RU decreased and then recovered. The long - and short - sides have different views. The tire enterprise's operating rate showed different trends, and the natural rubber inventory decreased. The rubber price was expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to wait and see [38][39][42]. Crude Oil - The prices of WTI and Brent crude oil increased, and the INE crude oil price decreased. The U.S. crude oil commercial inventory decreased, and the SPR increased. The current oil price was undervalued, and it was a good opportunity for left - hand side layout [43]. Methanol - The methanol price increased. The coal price increased, and the supply pressure was large. The demand was weak in the short - term but may improve in the peak season. It is recommended to wait and see [44]. Urea - The urea price decreased. The domestic supply was loose, and the demand was average. The enterprise profit was low, and the price fluctuation was narrowing. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [45]. Styrene - The styrene price increased. The macro - sentiment was good, the cost had support, the port inventory decreased, and the demand improved. The styrene price was expected to follow the cost and fluctuate upward [46]. PVC - The PVC price increased. The cost was stable, the supply was strong, the demand was weak, and the valuation pressure was large. It is recommended to wait and see [48]. Glycol - The glycol price increased. The supply decreased slightly, the downstream demand recovered slightly, and the port inventory decreased. The valuation was relatively high, and the fundamental situation may turn weak [49]. PTA - The PTA price increased. The supply was expected to accumulate inventory, the demand improved slightly, and the processing fee had limited space. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities following PX on dips [50][51]. p - Xylene - The p - xylene price increased. The load increased, the downstream PTA had more short - term maintenance, and the inventory was expected to decrease. The valuation was neutral, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities following crude oil on dips [52]. Polyethylene (PE) - The PE price increased. The market expected favorable policies, the cost had support, the inventory was high, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to be determined by the game between the cost and supply in the short - term [53]. Polypropylene (PP) - The PP price increased. The production profit rebounded, the supply may increase, the demand was weak in the off - season, and the price was expected to follow the crude - oil price and fluctuate upward [54]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - The domestic pig price generally increased. The market was expected to have a supply - demand game in the third - quarter end. The short - term strategy is to buy at low prices, the medium - term is to pay attention to the upper pressure, and the long - term is to use the reverse - spread strategy [56]. Eggs - The egg price was mostly stable and partly decreased. The supply was large, the demand was weak, and the price was expected to be mostly down and partly stable. The short - term disk may fluctuate, and the medium - term is to pay attention to short - position opportunities after the rebound [57]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The U.S. soybean price fluctuated slightly higher. The domestic soybean meal price followed the external cost and fluctuated. The soybean import cost was stable and slightly increased, and the domestic supply was seasonally excessive. It is recommended to go long on dips in the cost - range low position [58][59]. Oils and Fats - The domestic three major oils fluctuated. The demand and low inventory in Southeast Asia provided support. The palm oil price was expected to be above 4300 ringgit per ton in the short - term. The overall oil price was expected to fluctuate strongly, but the upward space was limited [60][61][62]. Sugar - The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The international sugar production may increase, and the domestic import supply will increase. The Zhengzhou sugar price may continue to decline [63]. Cotton - The Zhengzhou cotton futures price decreased slightly. The USDA report was favorable, and the suspension of tariffs was positive for the domestic cotton price. However, the downstream consumption was average, and the cotton price was expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term [64][65].