1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The bottom of import costs may have emerged, but upward room requires greater production cuts. The visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China may discuss the tariff issue of rapeseed products, and the current domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are relatively large, with a weak real - world fundamental situation. However, the inversion of soybean crushing margins provides some support to prices. With both bullish and bearish factors intertwined, it is recommended to take a short - term wait - and - see approach [9]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation Market Review - **External Market**: This week, US soybean prices rebounded slightly. As of Friday, the CBOT soybean March contract closed at 1062.75 cents per bushel, up 16.75 cents per bushel from the previous week, a 1.6% increase. The March - May contract spread of CBOT soybeans was - 12 cents per bushel, up 1.5 cents per bushel from the previous week [9]. - **Domestic Market**: This week, the prices of protein meal rebounded slightly. As of Friday, the soybean meal May contract closed at 2786 yuan per ton, up 37 yuan per ton from the previous week, a 1.37% increase. The rapeseed meal May contract closed at 2391 yuan per ton, up 68 yuan per ton from the previous week, a 2.93% increase. Regarding spreads, the May - September contract spread of soybean meal was - 90 yuan per ton, up 23 yuan per ton from the previous week; the May - September contract spread of rapeseed meal was - 60 yuan per ton, down 8 yuan per ton from the previous week. The basis of the soybean meal May contract was 354 yuan per ton, up 24 yuan per ton from the previous week; the basis of the rapeseed meal May contract was 162 yuan per ton, up 3 yuan per ton from the previous week. The May soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread was 448 yuan per ton, up 48 yuan per ton from the previous week [9]. Industry Information - According to USDA export sales data, as of the week ending January 1st, US soybean exports were 880,000 tons, a decrease of 300,000 tons from the previous week; the cumulative exports of soybeans in the current year were 28.58 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.46 million tons. Among them, soybean exports to China in that week were 470,000 tons, an increase of 70,000 tons from the previous week; the cumulative exports to China in the current year were 6.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.97 million tons. - According to MYSTEEL data, as of the week ending January 2nd, the arrival of domestic sample soybeans was 2.25 million tons, an increase of 1.08 million tons from the previous week; the port inventory of sample soybeans was 8.23 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 530,000 tons. The operating rate of sample oil mills was 50.75%, a year - on - year increase of 0.14 percentage points; the soybean meal inventory of sample oil mills was 1.06 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 450,000 tons. - The USDA will release the December monthly supply - demand data and quarterly inventory report on January 12th. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is expected to visit China from January 13th to 17th, and this visit will focus on four major issues: trade, energy, agriculture, and international security [9]. Fundamental Assessment - The assessment of soybean meal fundamentals shows that there are both bullish and bearish factors. The 5 - month contract basis is + 354 yuan per ton, the US soybean 3 - 5 spread is - 12 cents per bushel, the soybean import crushing margin is - 21 yuan per ton, and the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread is 448 yuan per ton. The international soybean supply is in the South American planting season, the domestic supply has high inventory but is starting to destock, the current apparent consumption is relatively high, and there are also factors such as the Sino - US trade war. The overall conclusion is that with both bullish and bearish factors intertwined, it is recommended to take a short - term wait - and - see approach [11]. Trading Strategy Recommendations - For both unilateral and arbitrage trading strategies, it is recommended to wait and see [12]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - The report presents multiple charts related to the futures and spot market, including the spot prices of soybean meal in Guangdong Dongguan and rapeseed meal in Guangdong Huangpu, the basis of the main contracts, monthly spreads, and the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread, with data sources from WIND and the research center of WK Futures [19][22][25][28]. 3.3. Supply Side - **US Soybean Planting Progress**: The report shows charts of US soybean planting progress, emergence rate, defoliation rate, and good - to - excellent rate, with data sources from the USDA and the research center of WK Futures [34][37]. - **Weather Conditions**: Charts of precipitation observations of Brazilian, US, and Argentine soybeans compared with the same period of the year are presented, as well as a summary of the weather conditions in the main soybean - producing areas, with data sources from WORLD AG WEATHER and the research center of WK Futures [40][42]. - **US Soybean Export Progress**: Multiple charts show the US soybean's current and next - year market - year cumulative contract volume, exports to China, and China's monthly imports of soybeans and rapeseeds, with data sources from the USDA, customs, and the research center of WK Futures [47][50][53]. - **China's Oil Mill Crushing Situation**: Charts of the soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes of major oil mills are presented, with data sources from MYSTEEL and the research center of WK Futures [56]. - **Brazilian Soybean Export and Shipment to China**: Charts show the monthly export volume of Brazilian soybeans, exports to China, weekly and cumulative shipments to China, with data sources from SECEX, MYSTEEL, and the research center of WK Futures [59][62][65]. 3.4. Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory**: Charts of soybean port inventory and the rapeseed inventory of major oil mills are presented, with data sources from MYSTEEL and the research center of WK Futures [70]. - **Protein Meal Inventory**: Charts of the soybean meal and rapeseed meal inventories of coastal major oil mills are presented, with data sources from WIND and the research center of WK Futures [73]. - **Protein Meal Crushing Profit**: Charts of the crushing profits of imported soybeans in Guangdong and imported rapeseeds in coastal areas are presented, with data sources from WIND and the research center of WK Futures [76]. 3.5. Demand Side - **Protein Meal Demand**: Charts of the cumulative transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills and the apparent consumption of soybean meal are presented, with data sources from MYSTEEL and the research center of WK Futures [80]. - **Breeding Profit**: Charts of the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the breeding profit of white - feather broilers are presented, with data sources from WIND and the research center of WK Futures [82].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term wait - and - see [1] Core Viewpoints - The current raw sugar price has fallen below the support level of the Brazilian ethanol conversion price. There is a possibility of reducing the proportion of sugarcane used for sugar production in the new Brazilian sugar - crushing season after April this year. After the northern hemisphere starts to finish sugar - crushing in February and the bearish impact of increased production is basically realized, the international sugar price may rebound. In the domestic market, the supply of imported sugar is gradually decreasing. As the sugar price drops to a low level, the short - term downward space is limited, so it's advisable to wait and see for now [9] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The international raw sugar price rebounded slightly this week. As of Friday, the closing price of the ICE raw sugar March contract was 14.89 cents per pound, up 0.29 cents per pound from the previous week, a 1.99% increase. The domestic Zhengzhou sugar price fluctuated. The closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar May contract was 5288 yuan per ton, up 37 yuan per ton from the previous week, a 0.7% increase [9] - **Industry News**: The Indian government will review the export performance of sugar mills after March 31, 2026, and may redistribute unused quotas. Brazil exported 2913000 tons of sugar in December, an increase of 80000 tons year - on - year and a decrease of 390000 tons month - on - month. Among them, the sugar exported to China in December was 385300 tons, an increase of 330000 tons year - on - year and a decrease of 56000 tons month - on - month. As of the week of January 7, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 44, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 1582300 tons [9] - **Viewpoints and Strategies**: Wait for the northern hemisphere to finish sugar - crushing in February. After the bearish impact of increased production is basically realized, the international sugar price may rebound. The domestic short - term downward space is limited, so it's advisable to wait and see [9] - **Fundamental Assessment**: The short - term recommendation is to wait and see, with various indicators showing a mostly neutral or slightly positive situation [10] - **Trading Strategy Suggestion**: Both unilateral and arbitrage trading strategies suggest waiting and seeing [11] 2. Spread Trend Review - The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including spot price and basis, spot - to - spot spreads, domestic - international spreads, raw - refined sugar spreads, raw sugar spot premiums and discounts, and sugar - alcohol price ratios, to comprehensively show the price spread changes in the sugar market [17][24][32] 3. Domestic Market Situation - The report shows charts of national sugar production, import volume, sales volume, and industrial inventory, reflecting the supply and demand situation in the domestic sugar market [39][42][47][50] 4. International Market Situation - **Brazilian Central - Southern Region**: The report shows charts of the production, shipment volume, and inventory of sugar in the Brazilian central - southern region, reflecting the production and supply situation in this major sugar - producing area [55][66] - **India and Thailand**: The report shows charts of the sugar production in India and Thailand, reflecting the production situation in these two important international sugar - producing countries [60][63]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an investment rating of "Short on rallies" for urea [16]. Core Viewpoints - The current situation of the price difference between domestic and foreign markets has opened the import window. Coupled with the expectation of increased production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook for urea is expected to turn bearish. Therefore, it is recommended to short on rallies [16]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - **Market Trend**: The report provides a chart of the urea index from January 1, 2025, to December 24, 2025, but no specific analysis of the trend is given [14]. - **Factor Assessment & Strategy**: - **Supply**: Urea production is expected to tighten marginally due to upcoming winter maintenance. The current strong demand from India and favorable export policies suggest a slightly bullish outlook [16]. - **Demand**: The downstream production rate has shown little fluctuation, but the off - season is approaching at the beginning of the next year, resulting in a neutral outlook [16]. - **Inventory**: Port inventories are slightly increasing, with a limited marginal impact. Factory inventories are decreasing rapidly from a high level, indicating a slightly bullish outlook [16]. - **Cost**: The replenishment of thermal coal has fallen short of expectations, leading to a decline from a high level. Oil and gas prices are expected to remain weak with limited fluctuations, resulting in a neutral outlook [16]. - **Last Week's View**: Given the opening of the import window and the expectation of increased production at the end of January, it was recommended to take profits on rallies [16]. - **This Week's View**: Given the opening of the import window and the expectation of increased production at the end of January, it is recommended to short on rallies [16]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Basis**: The report presents charts of the 01 basis seasonality and the spot market price of Shandong urea, but no specific analysis is provided [20]. - **Price Difference**: Charts of the urea 1 - 5 price difference and the urea term structure are provided, but no specific analysis is given [23]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Charts of the trading volume and open interest of urea 01, weighted trading volume, and weighted open interest are provided, but no specific analysis is presented [26]. 3. Profit and Inventory - **Production Profit**: Charts of fixed - bed profit, water - coal slurry profit, and gas - based production profit are provided, but no specific analysis is given [31][33]. - **Urea Inventory**: Charts of urea enterprise inventory, port inventory, and inventory change projections are provided, but no specific analysis is presented [41][44]. 4. Supply Side - **Urea Supply**: Charts of urea production and import volume are provided, but no specific analysis is given [49]. - **Urea Production Rate**: Charts of urea production rate, gas - based urea production rate, device maintenance loss volume, main - producing area enterprise advance orders, and monthly production projections are provided, but no specific analysis is presented [52][53]. 5. Demand Side - **Consumption Projection**: Charts of monthly consumption, downstream demand proportion, compound fertilizer production rate, compound fertilizer production profit, and the ratio of urea to compound fertilizer are provided, but no specific analysis is given [58][60]. - **Nitrogen Source Price Ratio**: Charts of the ratio of urea to synthetic ammonia, ammonium sulfate, ammonium chloride, and monoammonium phosphate are provided, but no specific analysis is presented [63]. - **Melamine**: Charts of melamine production rate, profit, and export volume are provided, but no specific analysis is given [66][68]. - **End - Users**: Charts of the export volume of plywood and similar multi - layer boards, housing construction and completion data, 30 - major - city average 5 - day commercial housing transaction area, and foreign market prices are provided, but no specific analysis is presented [74][78][82]. - **Export**: Charts of urea export volume, export profit, sea freight to India, and export volumes of ammonium sulfate, ammonium chloride, and other fertilizers are provided, but no specific analysis is given [85][87][90]. 6. Options - Related - **Urea Options**: Charts of urea option open interest, trading volume, open interest PCR, trading volume PCR, and option volatility and futures price are provided, but no specific analysis is presented [96][98][106]. 7. Industry Structure Diagram - **Urea Industry Chain**: The report provides a chart of the urea industry chain, a research framework analysis mind - map, and an overview of the industry chain characteristics, including the seasonal demand for fertilizers in different regions of China and major countries around the world [110][112][114]. - **Domestic Demand Seasonality**: The off - season for domestic fertilizer demand is from January to February. The peak demand season runs from March to July, with the highest demand in June and July. The off - season resumes in August, followed by wheat fertilizer preparation and winter fertilizer reserves [117]. - **International Demand Seasonality**: India's peak demand season is from June to October, lagging behind China by 2 - 3 months. The United States' peak season is about one month earlier than China's. The peak season in Latin America is from August to September [118].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The commodity market has been volatile since the first week after the New Year, with the bullish sentiment likely to continue, especially in the non - ferrous and precious metals sectors. However, there is a need to be vigilant about the short - term high - volatility risks caused by sentiment "leaders" such as silver and lithium carbonate [15][97]. - The supply - demand pattern of ferromanganese remains unfavorable, with a loose structure, high inventory, and weak downstream building materials industry demand. But these factors are mostly priced in and are not the main contradictions for future market trends. The supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon is basically balanced, with marginal improvement due to some factory maintenance and production conversion [15][97]. - The future market trends of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon will be influenced by two main factors: the direction of the black sector or the overall market sentiment, and the cost - push problem from manganese ore in the ferromanganese sector and the supply contraction (or contraction expectation) problem in the ferrosilicon sector due to losses or the "dual - carbon" policy. Special attention should be paid to potential emergencies in the manganese ore sector and the progress of the "dual - carbon" policy [15][97]. 3. Summaries According to the Catalog Manganese Silicon 3.1.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Key Points Summary**: Tianjin 6517 ferromanganese spot price was 5740 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week; the futures main contract (SM603) closed at 59040 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was 26 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis rate of 0.44%, at a relatively low level in historical statistics. The estimated immediate profit of ferromanganese remained low, with Inner Mongolia at - 414 yuan/ton (up 22 yuan/ton week - on - week), Ningxia at - 541 yuan/ton (up 90 yuan/ton week - on - week), and Guangxi at - 438 yuan/ton (up 46 yuan/ton week - on - week). The estimated immediate cost of ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia was 6114 yuan/ton (up 28 yuan/ton week - on - week), Ningxia at 6171 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton week - on - week), and Guangxi at 6188 yuan/ton (down 46 yuan/ton week - on - week). The weekly output of ferromanganese was 19.10 tons, down 0.27 tons week - on - week. The weekly output of rebar was 191.04 tons, up 2.82 tons week - on - week, and the daily average hot - metal output was 229.5 tons, up 2.07 tons week - on - week. The estimated visible inventory of ferromanganese was 55.03 tons, up 0.54 tons week - on - week, still at a high level compared to the same period [14]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis was at a low level and decreased slightly week - on - week. The production profit continued to be in the red. The output decreased slightly, while the rebar and hot - metal output increased slightly. The inventory remained at a high level. The tender volume and price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group decreased month - on - month. The ferromanganese futures price fluctuated sharply last week, and there was no obvious short - term trend. Future market trends will be affected by the overall market sentiment and cost - related factors [15]. 3.1.2. Spot - Futures Market As of January 9, 2026, Tianjin 6517 ferromanganese spot price was 5740 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week; the futures main contract (SM603) closed at 59040 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was 26 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis rate of 0.44%, at a relatively low level in historical statistics [20]. 3.1.3. Profit and Cost - **Production Profit**: As of January 9, 2026, the estimated immediate profit of ferromanganese remained low, with Inner Mongolia at - 414 yuan/ton (up 22 yuan/ton week - on - week), Ningxia at - 541 yuan/ton (up 90 yuan/ton week - on - week), and Guangxi at - 438 yuan/ton (up 46 yuan/ton week - on - week) [25]. - **Production Cost**: As of January 9, 2026, the prices of South African, Australian, and Gabonese manganese ores increased, while the price of off - grade metallurgical coke decreased. The electricity prices in Inner Mongolia and Guangxi remained stable, while that in Ningxia decreased by 0.015 yuan/kWh. The estimated immediate cost of ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia was 6114 yuan/ton (up 28 yuan/ton week - on - week), Ningxia at 6171 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton week - on - week), and Guangxi at 6188 yuan/ton (down 46 yuan/ton week - on - week) [27][30]. - **Manganese Ore Import**: In November, the manganese ore import volume was 269.4 tons, down 40.6 tons month - on - month and up 49.4 tons year - on - year. From January to November, the cumulative import volume was 2956.8 tons, up 284 tons or 10.63% year - on - year [33]. - **Manganese Ore Inventory**: As of January 2, 2026, the manganese ore port inventory continued to decline, reaching 438.9 tons, down 7.9 tons week - on - week. Among them, the Australian manganese ore port inventory was 65.7 tons, down 2.3 tons week - on - week, and the high - grade manganese ore port inventory was 117.5 tons, down 7.4 tons week - on - week [36][39]. 3.1.4. Supply and Demand - **Total Output**: As of January 9, 2026, the weekly output of ferromanganese was 19.10 tons, down 0.27 tons week - on - week, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of about 4.40%. In December 2025, the output was 84.35 tons, down 0.53 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to December decreased by 2.21 tons or 0.22% year - on - year [44]. - **Output in Main Production Areas**: No specific summary information provided other than data presentation. - **Steel Tendering**: Hebei Iron and Steel Group's ferromanganese tender volume in December 2025 was 14700 tons, down 1300 tons month - on - month and up 1100 tons year - on - year; the tender price was 5770 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton month - on - month [56]. - **Consumption**: As of January 9, 2026, the weekly apparent consumption of ferromanganese was 11.59 tons, up 0.08 tons week - on - week. The weekly output of rebar was 191.04 tons, up 2.82 tons week - on - week. The daily average hot - metal output was 229.5 tons, up 2.07 tons week - on - week. In November 2025, the national crude steel output was 6990 tons, down 210 tons month - on - month and 850 tons year - on - year. From January to November, the cumulative crude steel output was 8.82 billion tons, down 3340 tons or 3.65% year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 37.66%, down 0.44 percentage points week - on - week [59][62][63]. 3.1.5. Inventory - **Visible Inventory**: As of January 9, 2026, the estimated visible inventory of ferromanganese was 55.03 tons, up 0.54 tons week - on - week, still at a high level compared to the same period [70]. - **Visible Inventory (Bi - weekly)**: The inventory of sample enterprises was 38.25 tons, down 1.1 tons week - on - week. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: In December, the average available days of ferromanganese inventory in steel mills was 15.52 days, down 0.32 days month - on - month, still at a relatively low level compared to historical data [76]. 3.1.6. Graphical Trends Last week, the ferromanganese futures price fluctuated sharply, with no obvious short - term trend. Future attention should be paid to the resistance levels at 6000 yuan/ton and 6250 yuan/ton and the support level at around 5800 yuan/ton [79]. Ferrosilicon 3.2.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Key Points Summary**: The daily average hot - metal output was 229.5 tons, up 2.07 tons week - on - week. From January to December 2025, the cumulative output of magnesium metal was 87.31 tons, down 0.36 tons year - on - year. From January to November 2025, the cumulative export volume of ferrosilicon was 36.79 tons, down 2.77 tons or 7.01% year - on - year. The estimated visible inventory of ferrosilicon was 12.73 tons, up 0.46 tons week - on - week, remaining at a relatively neutral level compared to the same period. The spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon was 5800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; the futures main contract (SF603) closed at 5632 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was 168 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis rate of 2.90%, at a relatively neutral level in historical statistics. The estimated immediate profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was - 393 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week), Ningxia at - 270 yuan/ton (up 140 yuan/ton week - on - week), and Qinghai at - 797 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week). The estimated production cost in Inner Mongolia was 5693 yuan/ton (remaining stable week - on - week), Ningxia at 5590 yuan/ton (down 120 yuan/ton week - on - week), and Qinghai at 6097 yuan/ton (remaining stable week - on - week). The weekly output of ferrosilicon was 9.91 tons, up 0.01 tons week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period [95][96]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis decreased slightly week - on - week, remaining at a relatively neutral level. The production profit continued to be in the red. The hot - metal output continued to rise, and the demand for magnesium metal improved. The inventory increased slightly, remaining at a relatively neutral level compared to the same period. The steel tender volume and price decreased month - on - month. The ferrosilicon futures price fluctuated sharply last week, and future market trends will be affected by the overall market sentiment and cost - related factors [97]. 3.2.2. Spot - Futures Market As of January 9, 2026, the spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon was 5800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; the futures main contract (SF603) closed at 5632 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was 168 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis rate of 2.90%, at a relatively neutral level in historical statistics [102]. 3.2.3. Profit and Cost - **Production Profit**: As of January 9, 2026, the estimated immediate profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was - 393 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week), Ningxia at - 270 yuan/ton (up 140 yuan/ton week - on - week), and Qinghai at - 797 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week) [107]. - **Production Cost**: As of January 9, 2026, the prices of silica in the northwest region and semi - coke small materials remained stable. The electricity prices in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Shaanxi, and Gansu remained stable, while that in Ningxia decreased by 0.015 yuan/kWh. The estimated production cost in Inner Mongolia was 5693 yuan/ton (remaining stable week - on - week), Ningxia at 5590 yuan/ton (down 120 yuan/ton week - on - week), and Qinghai at 6097 yuan/ton (remaining stable week - on - week) [110][113]. 3.2.4. Supply and Demand - **Total Output**: As of January 9, 2026, the weekly output of ferrosilicon was 9.91 tons, up 0.01 tons week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period. In December 2025, the output was 45.42 tons, down 1.69 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to December decreased by 3.77 tons or 0.67% year - on - year [118]. - **Output in Main Production Areas**: No specific summary information provided other than data presentation. - **Steel Tendering**: Hebei Iron and Steel Group's 75B ferrosilicon alloy tender volume in December 2025 was 2750 tons, up 34 tons month - on - month and up 609 tons year - on - year; the tender price was 5660 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton month - on - month [124]. - **Steel Consumption**: As of January 9, 2026, the daily average hot - metal output was 229.5 tons, up 2.07 tons week - on - week. In November 2025, the national crude steel output was 6990 tons, down 210 tons month - on - month and 850 tons year - on - year. From January to November, the cumulative crude steel output was 8.82 billion tons, down 3340 tons or 3.65% year - on - year [127]. - **Non - steel Consumption**: From January to December 2025, the cumulative output of magnesium metal was 87.31 tons, down 0.36 tons year - on - year. As of January 9, 2026, the price of magnesium metal in Fugu area was 16950 yuan/ton, up 1150 yuan/ton week - on - week. From January to November 2025, the cumulative export volume of ferrosilicon was 36.79 tons, down 2.77 tons or 7.01% year - on - year. The estimated export profit of ferrosilicon was - 101 yuan/ton, still at a low level compared to the same period. From January to November 2025, the cumulative overseas crude steel output was 7.67 billion tons, up 170 tons or 0.22% year - on - year [130][133][134]. 3.2.5. Inventory - **Visible Inventory**: As of January 9, 2026, the estimated visible inventory of ferrosilicon was 12.73 tons, up 0.46 tons week - on - week, remaining at a relatively neutral level compared to the same period [141]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: In December, the average available days of ferrosilicon inventory in steel mills was 15.41 days, down 0.39 days month - on - month, still at a relatively low level compared to historical data [144]. 3.2.6. Graphical Trends Last week, the ferrosilicon futures price fluctuated sharply, with the short - term price returning to range - bound trading. Future attention should be paid to the resistance levels at 5850 yuan/ton and 6000 yuan/ton and the support level at around 5500 yuan/ton [1

CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及行情展望 关注美国关税裁决对于铂 钯现货的影响 铂族金属周报 2026/01/10 0755-23375141 zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 钟俊轩（宏观金融组） 03 库存及ETF持仓变动 01 周度评估及行情展望 内盘铂钯价格走势 资料来源：文华财经、五矿期货研究中心 资料来源：文华财经、五矿期货研究中心 04 供给和需求 02 市场回顾 05 月差及跨市场价差 元旦节后内盘钯金价格表现强于铂金，2026年1月5日至9日，广期所铂主力合约价格下跌1.99%至599.8元/克，钯主力合约价格上 涨6.86%至499.05元/克。 图1：广期所铂金主力合约价格（元/克） 图2：广期所钯金主力合约价格（元/克） 周度评估及行情展望 | 铂族金属重点数据汇总 | 单位 | 2026-01-09 | | 2026-01-02 | | 周度变化 | | 周度涨跌幅度 | | 月度涨跌幅度 | | 进一年历史分位数 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The market sentiment drove the mid - week rally of black - series commodities. The upside of iron ore prices is constrained by high inventory and expectations of loose supply, while the downside is supported by restocking expectations. In the short term, iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at relatively high levels. The subsequent focus should be on steel mills' restocking and hot metal production rhythms. As overseas shipments enter the off - season and hot metal production resumes, the supply - demand balance is expected to improve marginally. However, market sentiment has entered an unstable stage, increasing volatility risks, so operations should be cautious with attention to position control [11][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: Global iron ore shipments totaled 3.2137 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 463,400 tons. Shipments from Australia and Brazil totaled 2.7427 billion tons, down 316,900 tons. Australian shipments were 1.9396 billion tons, down 174,100 tons, and those to China were 1.6153 billion tons, down 252,300 tons. Brazilian shipments were 803,200 tons, down 142,700 tons. The arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 2.8247 billion tons, up 96,900 tons; at 45 ports, it was 2.7564 billion tons, up 155,000 tons [11]. - Demand: The daily average hot metal output was 229,500 tons, an increase of 2,070 tons from last week. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 86.04%, up 0.78 percentage points. The steel mill profitability rate was 37.66%, down 0.44 percentage points [11]. - Inventory: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 national ports was 17.04444 billion tons, up 322,650 tons. The daily average port clearance volume was 336,960 tons, down 3,250 tons. Port inventories continued to accumulate and were higher than the same period in previous years. Steel mills' imported ore inventories increased but remained at a low level, indicating some restocking demand [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Spreads: The PB - Super Special powder spread was 125 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton compared to before the holiday. The Carajás - PB powder spread was 80 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton. The Carajás - Jinbuba powder spread was 139 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton. The ((Carajás + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) spread was - 22.5 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [19][22]. - Feed Ratios and Scrap Steel: The pellet feed ratio was 14.66%, down 0.03 percentage points. The lump ore feed ratio was 12.2%, up 0.26 percentage points. The sinter feed ratio was 73.14%, down 0.24 percentage points. The Tangshan scrap steel price was 2,155 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Zhangjiagang scrap steel price was 2,090 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [25]. - Profits: The steel mill profitability rate was 37.66%, down 0.44 percentage points from last week. The PB powder import profit was 14.45 yuan/wet ton [28]. 3.3 Inventory - 45 - port Imported Iron Ore Inventory: The inventory was 16.27526 billion tons, up 304,370 tons. Pellet inventory was 344,790 tons, up 2,790 tons. Iron concentrate powder inventory was 1.46277 billion tons, up 146,590 tons. Lump ore inventory was 2.11538 billion tons, down 17,650 tons. Australian ore port inventory was 7.18534 billion tons, up 98,190 tons. Brazilian ore port inventory was 5.6639 billion tons, up 92,650 tons [35][38][41]. - Steel Mills' Imported Iron Ore Inventory: The inventory of 247 steel mills was 8.98959 billion tons, up 43,050 tons from last week [45]. 3.4 Supply Side - Overseas Shipments: The volume of Australian ore shipped to China via 19 ports was 1.5538 billion tons, down 248,500 tons week - on - week. Brazilian shipments were 792,500 tons, down 151,500 tons. Rio Tinto's shipments to China were 549,900 tons, down 146,400 tons. BHP's shipments to China were 496,400 tons, down 17,000 tons. Vale's shipments were 562,500 tons, down 72,700 tons. FMG's shipments to China were 276,600 tons, down 158,100 tons [50][53][56]. - Arrival and Non - mainstream Imports: The arrival volume at 45 ports was 2.7564 billion tons, up 155,000 tons week - on - week. In November, China's non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore imports were 1.90041 billion tons, down 84,500 tons month - on - month [59]. - Domestic Mines: The domestic mine capacity utilization rate was 58.41%, up 2.96 percentage points. The daily average output of iron concentrate powder was 45,650 tons, up 2,320 tons [65]. 3.5 Demand Side - Hot Metal Production and Capacity Utilization: The domestic daily average hot metal output was 229,500 tons, up 2,070 tons from last week. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 86.04%, up 0.78 percentage points [70]. - Port Clearance and Steel Mills' Consumption: The daily average port clearance volume of iron ore at 45 ports was 323,270 tons, down 1,940 tons. The daily consumption of imported iron ore by 247 steel mills was 283,280 tons, up 2,610 tons week - on - week [73]. 3.6 Basis As of January 9, the calculated iron ore BRBF basis was 50.27 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 5.81% [78].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment in the copper market is bullish, and copper prices are fluctuating at a high level. The short - term supply of copper ore remains tight, and although high copper prices continue to suppress consumption and there is still pressure on domestic inventory accumulation, copper prices are strongly supported. It is expected that copper prices will fluctuate and rise in the short term. The operating range of the main SHFE copper contract is expected to be between 98,000 - 106,000 yuan/ton, and the LME copper 3M contract is expected to be between 12,400 - 13,500 US dollars/ton [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Demand**: In the new year, spot demand has slightly improved. Downstream buyers make moderate purchases at low prices, but demand is still suppressed by high prices. The initial consumption start - up rate of downstream industries continues to decline. The domestic refined - scrap copper price spread has widened, increasing the substitution advantage of scrap copper. However, the start - up rate of recycled copper rod production is maintained at a low level due to fiscal and tax policies [11]. - **Supply**: The spot processing fee for copper concentrate continues to decline, while the processing fee for blister copper remains high. There are supply disruptions such as strikes at the Mantoverde copper - gold mine and the postponed commissioning of the Mirador copper mine, and Codelco's production is below the expected target. The tight supply situation at the mine end persists [12]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges is 789,000 tons, an increase of 47,000 tons. SHFE inventory increased by 35,000 tons to 181,000 tons, LME inventory decreased slightly by 1,000 tons to 141,000 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 13,000 tons to 467,000 tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 102,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons. The spot in Shanghai was at a discount of 45 yuan/ton to the futures on Friday, and the LME market Cash/3M was at a premium of 41.9 US dollars/ton [12]. - **Imports and Exports**: The loss of domestic electrolytic copper spot imports has relatively narrowed, and the Yangshan copper premium has declined. In November 2025, China's refined copper imports were 305,000 tons, with a net import of 162,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 100,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 58.2%. The cumulative imports from January to November were 3.53 million tons, and the net imports were 2.837 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1% [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Prices**: The US raid on Venezuela enhanced the value of strategic resources, causing copper prices to surge. The main SHFE copper contract rose 3.23% week - on - week, and LME copper rose 4.05% to 12,965.5 US dollars/ton [20]. - **Spot Prices**: The domestic copper price rose and then fell. On Friday, the spot copper in East China was at a discount to the futures, and the discount narrowed to 45 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased, the proportion of cancelled warrants declined, and Cash/3M remained at a premium, reporting a premium of 41.9 US dollars/ton on Friday. Last week, domestic electrolytic copper spot imports remained in a loss, and the Yangshan copper premium declined [29]. - **Market Structure**: The SHFE copper market shifted to a Contango structure, while the LME copper market maintained a Back structure [32]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Smelting Profit**: The spot rough - smelting fee (TC) for imported copper concentrate declined to - 45.4 US dollars/ton. The sulfuric acid price in East China slightly declined from a high level but still made a positive contribution to copper smelting revenue [37]. - **Import - Export Ratio**: The offshore RMB depreciated, and the spot SHFE - LME copper ratio rebounded slightly [40]. - **Import - Export Profit and Loss**: The loss of copper spot imports has shrunk [43]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 47,000 tons to 789,000 tons. The increase in SHFE inventory came from Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Guangdong, and the number of copper warrants increased by 29,441 to 111,216 tons. LME inventory decreased, with the decrease coming from Asian warehouses, and the proportion of cancelled warrants declined [46][49][52]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Production**: In December 2025, China's refined copper production increased by about 75,000 tons month - on - month. It is expected that the production in January 2026 will increase slightly month - on - month and maintain a relatively high year - on - year growth. In November 2025, the domestic refined copper production was 1.236 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.9%, and the cumulative production from January to November was 13.323 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.8% [56]. - **Imports and Exports**: In November 2025, China's copper ore imports were 2.526 million tons, a month - on - month increase. The cumulative imports from January to November were 27.614 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%. The imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 427,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 19.3%. The imports of anode copper were 58,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 16.4%. The imports of refined copper were 305,000 tons, with a net import of 162,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 100,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 58.2%. The imports of recycled copper were 208,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.8% and a year - on - year increase of 20.0% [59][62][65][74]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Consumption Structure**: Globally, the main consumption areas of electrolytic copper are power (46%), home appliances (15%), and transportation (11%). In China, the main consumption areas are construction (26%), equipment (23%), and infrastructure (17%) [78]. - **Downstream Industry Data**: In November, the year - on - year production of automobiles, freezers, washing machines, refrigerators, and power generation equipment increased, while that of air conditioners, color TVs, and AC motors decreased. From January to November, the cumulative year - on - year production of automobiles, air conditioners, washing machines, refrigerators, and power generation equipment increased, while that of freezers, color TVs, and AC motors decreased. The domestic real - estate data in November continued to be weak, and the National Real - Estate Climate Index continued to decline [84][86]. - **Downstream Enterprise Start - up Rate**: The start - up rates of most downstream copper enterprises showed different trends of rise and fall in December and are expected to change accordingly in January. This week, the start - up rates of electrolytic copper rods, wire and cable, and copper strips declined [101][104]. - **Scrap - Refined Price Spread**: The domestic scrap - refined copper price spread widened, reaching 4,401 yuan/ton on Friday [109]. 3.6 Capital Side - **SHFE Copper Positions**: The total SHFE copper positions increased by 127,796 to 1,363,282 lots (bilateral), and the positions of the near - month 2601 contract were 47,740 lots (bilateral) [114]. - **Foreign Fund Positions**: As of January 6, CFTC funds maintained a net long position, but the net long ratio declined to 18.1%. The proportion of long positions of LME investment funds slightly decreased (as of January 2) [117].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market shows a bullish upward trend with the Shanghai Composite Index, large - cap blue - chip stocks, small - and medium - cap stocks, and ChiNext stocks performing well [3]. - The implied volatility of financial options has dropped to a level below the historical average [3]. - For ETF options, it is suitable to construct bullish seller strategies and call option bull spread combination strategies; for index options, in addition to the above, an arbitrage strategy of synthetic long futures with options and short futures can also be considered [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Important Indexes - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,082.98, down 2.79 points (-0.07%), with a trading volume of 11,832 billion yuan, a decrease of 142 billion yuan [4]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13,959.48, down 71.08 points (-0.51%), with a trading volume of 16,171 billion yuan, a decrease of 396 billion yuan [4]. - The Shanghai 50 Index closed at 3,122.06, down 23.06 points (-0.73%), with a trading volume of 1,879 billion yuan, an increase of 186 billion yuan [4]. - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4,737.65, down 39.01 points (-0.82%), with a trading volume of 6,307 billion yuan, a decrease of 342 billion yuan [4]. - The CSI 500 Index closed at 7,894.54, up 19.46 points (0.25%), with a trading volume of 5,645 billion yuan, a decrease of 183 billion yuan [4]. - The CSI 1000 Index closed at 7,971.59, up 65.17 points (0.82%), with a trading volume of 6,054 billion yuan, a decrease of 125 billion yuan [4]. 3.2 Option - related ETFs - The Shanghai 50 ETF closed at 3.198, down 0.022 (-0.68%), with a trading volume of 512.54 million shares and a trading value of 16.42 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.34 billion yuan [5]. - The Shanghai 300 ETF closed at 4.863, down 0.038 (-0.78%), with a trading volume of 682.72 million shares and a trading value of 33.25 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.54 billion yuan [5]. - The Shanghai 500 ETF closed at 8.024, up 0.025 (0.31%), with a trading volume of 382.23 million shares and a trading value of 30.70 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.82 billion yuan [5]. - The Huaxia Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF closed at 1.531, up 0.011 (0.72%), with a trading volume of 3,582.03 million shares and a trading value of 55.18 billion yuan, an increase of 2.80 billion yuan [5]. - The E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF closed at 1.483, up 0.012 (0.82%), with a trading volume of 1,299.67 million shares and a trading value of 19.40 billion yuan, an increase of 0.80 billion yuan [5]. - The Shenzhen 300 ETF closed at 4.944, down 0.033 (-0.66%), with a trading volume of 169.20 million shares and a trading value of 8.37 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.94 billion yuan [5]. - The Shenzhen 500 ETF closed at 3.166, up 0.009 (0.29%), with a trading volume of 89.05 million shares and a trading value of 2.82 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.26 billion yuan [5]. - The Shenzhen 100 ETF closed at 3.502, down 0.040 (-1.13%), with a trading volume of 64.34 million shares and a trading value of 2.26 billion yuan, an increase of 0.03 billion yuan [5]. - The ChiNext ETF closed at 3.287, down 0.024 (-0.72%), with a trading volume of 1,103.91 million shares and a trading value of 36.32 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.27 billion yuan [5]. 3.3 Option Factors - Volume and Position PCR - For the Shanghai 50 ETF option, the trading volume is 79.49 million contracts (down 27.33 million), the open interest is 122.90 million contracts (down 0.38 million), the volume PCR is 0.80 (up 0.07), and the position PCR is 0.96 (down 0.06) [6]. - For the Shanghai 300 ETF option, the trading volume is 92.14 million contracts (down 17.96 million), the open interest is 125.47 million contracts (up 4.32 million), the volume PCR is 0.91 (up 0.22), and the position PCR is 1.00 (down 0.05) [6]. - For the Shanghai 500 ETF option, the trading volume is 156.90 million contracts (down 5.16 million), the open interest is 129.00 million contracts (up 3.32 million), the volume PCR is 0.92 (up 0.19), and the position PCR is 1.38 (up 0.06) [6]. - For the Huaxia Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF option, the trading volume is 207.98 million contracts (up 30.01 million), the open interest is 204.75 million contracts (up 3.08 million), the volume PCR is 0.68 (down 0.02), and the position PCR is 0.94 (up 0.04) [6]. - For the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF option, the trading volume is 39.53 million contracts (up 2.09 million), the open interest is 51.19 million contracts (up 0.08 million), the volume PCR is 0.60 (up 0.05), and the position PCR is 0.94 (up 0.05) [6]. - For the Shenzhen 300 ETF option, the trading volume is 19.61 million contracts (down 3.16 million), the open interest is 31.79 million contracts (up 0.13 million), the volume PCR is 1.08 (up 0.40), and the position PCR is 0.91 (down 0.05) [6]. - For the Shenzhen 500 ETF option, the trading volume is 39.99 million contracts (down 6.92 million), the open interest is 43.27 million contracts (up 0.15 million), the volume PCR is 0.98 (down 0.01), and the position PCR is 0.97 (down 0.05) [6]. - For the Shenzhen 100 ETF option, the trading volume is 5.17 million contracts (up 0.35 million), the open interest is 10.17 million contracts (up 0.39 million), the volume PCR is 1.01 (down 0.55), and the position PCR is 1.23 (down 0.23) [6]. - For the ChiNext ETF option, the trading volume is 141.52 million contracts (down 25.84 million), the open interest is 167.98 million contracts (up 3.10 million), the volume PCR is 0.84 (up 0.05), and the position PCR is 1.09 (down 0.07) [6]. - For the Shanghai 50 index option, the trading volume is 4.68 million contracts (down 0.65 million), the open interest is 6.24 million contracts (up 0.20 million), the volume PCR is 0.42 (up 0.04), and the position PCR is 0.72 (down 0.04) [6]. - For the CSI 300 index option, the trading volume is 15.23 million contracts (up 0.10 million), the open interest is 18.80 million contracts (up 1.05 million), the volume PCR is 0.48 (down 0.05), and the position PCR is 0.76 (down 0.07) [6]. - For the CSI 1000 index option, the trading volume is 35.66 million contracts (up 1.75 million), the open interest is 32.44 million contracts (up 0.37 million), the volume PCR is 0.76 (up 0.09), and the position PCR is 1.16 (up 0.05) [6]. 3.4 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Points - For the Shanghai 50 ETF option, the underlying closing price is 3.198, the at - the - money strike price is 3.20, the pressure point is 3.20, the support point is 3.10 [8]. - For the Shanghai 300 ETF option, the underlying closing price is 4.863, the at - the - money strike price is 4.90, the pressure point is 4.90, the support point is 4.70 [8]. - For the Shanghai 500 ETF option, the underlying closing price is 8.024, the at - the - money strike price is 8.00, the pressure point is 8.00, the support point is 7.75 [8]. - For the Huaxia Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF option, the underlying closing price is 1.531, the at - the - money strike price is 1.55, the pressure point is 1.60, the support point is 1.40 [8]. - For the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF option, the underlying closing price is 1.483, the at - the - money strike price is 1.50, the pressure point is 1.50, the support point is 1.35 [8]. - For the Shenzhen 300 ETF option, the underlying closing price is 4.944, the at - the - money strike price is 4.90, the pressure point is 4.90, the support point is 4.90 [8]. - For the Shenzhen 500 ETF option, the underlying closing price is 3.166, the at - the - money strike price is 3.20, the pressure point is 3.20, the support point is 3.10 [8]. - For the Shenzhen 100 ETF option, the underlying closing price is 3.502, the at - the - money strike price is 3.50, the pressure point is 3.50, the support point is 3.50 [8]. - For the ChiNext ETF option, the underlying closing price is 3.287, the at - the - money strike price is 3.30, the pressure point is 3.30, the support point is 3.10 [8]. - For the Shanghai 50 index option, the underlying closing price is 3,122.06, the at - the - money strike price is 3,100, the pressure point is 3,150, the support point is 3,000 [8]. - For the CSI 300 index option, the underlying closing price is 4,737.65, the at - the - money strike price is 4,750, the pressure point is 4,750, the support point is 4,650 [8]. - For the CSI 1000 index option, the underlying closing price is 7,971.59, the at - the - money strike price is 8,000, the pressure point is 8,000, the support point is 7,700 [8]. 3.5 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - For the Shanghai 50 ETF option, the at - the - money implied volatility is 15.51%, the weighted implied volatility is 15.90% (down 1.22%), the annual average is 16.08%, the call implied volatility is 16.37%, the put implied volatility is 15.27%, the 20 - day historical volatility is 12.38%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is 3.52% [11]. - For the Shanghai 300 ETF option, the at - the - money implied volatility is 16.71%, the weighted implied volatility is 16.28% (down 0.37%), the annual average is 16.72%, the call implied volatility is 16.48%, the put implied volatility is 16.05%, the 20 - day historical volatility is 14.18%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is 2.10% [11]. - For the Shanghai 500 ETF option, the at - the - money implied volatility is 21.34%, the weighted implied volatility is 21.98% (down 0.09%), the annual average is 20.61%, the call implied volatility is 22.05%, the put implied volatility is 21.88%, the 20 - day historical volatility is 17.51%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is 4.46% [11]. - For the Huaxia Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF option, the at - the - money implied volatility is 32.22%, the weighted implied volatility is 31.08% (up 0.74%), the annual average is 34.09%, the call implied volatility is 31.36%, the put implied volatility is 30.59%, the 20 - day historical volatility is 25.89%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is 5.20% [11]. - For the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF option, the at - the - money implied volatility is 32.35%, the weighted implied volatility is 32.11% (up 0.61%), the annual average is 34.98%, the call implied volatility is 32.15%, the put implied volatility is 32.03%, the 20 - day historical volatility is 26.42%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is 5.69% [11]. - For the Shenzhen 300 ETF option, the at - the - money implied volatility is 16.64%, the weighted implied volatility is 18.49% (down 0.21%), the annual average is 19.16%, the call implied volatility is 18.98%, the put implied volatility is 17.88%, the 20 - day historical volatility is 13.19%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is 5.30% [11]. - For the Shenzhen 500 ETF option, the at - the - money implied volatility is 21.97%, the weighted implied volatility is 22.99% (up 0.37%), the annual average is 22.64%, the call implied volatility is 22.56%, the put implied volatility is 23.71%, the 20 - day historical volatility is 17.97%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is 5.02% [11]. - For the Shenzhen 100 ETF option, the at - the - money implied volatility is 20.41%, the weighted implied volatility is 23.11% (down 0.21%), the annual average is 27.98%, the call implied volatility is 23.85%, the put implied volatility is 21.53%, the 20 - day historical volatility is 19.70%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is 3.41% [11]. - For the ChiNext ETF option, the at - the - money implied volatility is 27.63%, the weighted implied volatility is 27.53% (up

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The energy - chemical sector is divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others [8]. - For each sector, options strategies and suggestions are provided for selected varieties [8]. - Options strategy reports are written for each option variety based on underlying market analysis, option factor research, and option strategy suggestions [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Underlying Futures Market Overview - Various option varieties' underlying contracts are presented, including details such as the latest price, change, percentage change, trading volume, volume change, open interest, and open interest change [3]. 3.2 Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR for different option varieties are given, along with their changes. These PCR indicators are used to describe the strength of the option - underlying market and the timing of market turning points [4]. 3.3 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels for each option variety are provided, along with the offset values, maximum call and put open interests [5]. 3.4 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility data for different option varieties are presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, its change, annual average, call and put implied volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility [6]. 3.5 Strategy and Suggestions 3.5.1 Energy - related Options (Crude Oil and LPG) - **Fundamentals**: For crude oil, the US military raid on Maduro has not damaged domestic oil and gas facilities; the rift between Saudi - UAE on the Yemen issue has not affected OPEC + coordination. NNPC aims to increase production. For LPG, the supply has no new increment, and chemical demand supports the price [7][9]. - **Market Analysis**: Crude oil has shown a weak - biased market trend over time. LPG has an oscillating and downward - biased market [7][9]. - **Option Factor Research**: Crude oil's implied volatility is below the average, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak market. LPG's implied volatility is around the average, and the open interest PCR also shows a weak market [7][9]. - **Option Strategies**: For both crude oil and LPG, there are no directional strategies. Volatility strategies involve selling a combination of call and put options, and spot long - hedging strategies involve constructing long collar strategies [7][9]. 3.5.2 Alcohol - related Options (Methanol and Ethylene Glycol) - **Fundamentals**: For methanol, imports from Venezuela in 2025 - 2026 and the supply - demand situation are considered. For ethylene glycol, the port inventory situation is presented [9][10]. - **Market Analysis**: Methanol shows an oversold rebound trend, while ethylene glycol shows a weak - biased trend [9][10]. - **Option Factor Research**: Methanol's implied volatility is around the historical average, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak market. Ethylene glycol's implied volatility is above the average, and the open interest PCR shows strong short - side power [9][10]. - **Option Strategies**: There are no directional strategies. Volatility strategies involve selling a combination of call and put options for methanol and short - selling volatility for ethylene glycol. Spot long - hedging strategies involve constructing long collar strategies [9][10]. 3.5.3 Olefin - related Options (PVC) - **Fundamentals**: The production capacity utilization rate of PVC is presented, with attention to future maintenance efforts [10]. - **Market Analysis**: PVC has shown a downward trend and then a rebound [10]. - **Option Factor Research**: PVC's implied volatility has decreased to below the average, and the open interest PCR indicates a continued weak trend [10]. - **Option Strategies**: A bull spread strategy for call options is constructed for directional gain, and spot long - hedging strategies involve holding spot long + buying at - the - money put options + selling out - of - the - money call options [10]. 3.5.4 Rubber - related Options (Rubber) - **Fundamentals**: The inventory and production data of natural and synthetic rubber are provided [11]. - **Market Analysis**: Rubber has shown a recovery trend [11]. - **Option Factor Research**: Rubber's implied volatility is approaching the average, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak market [11]. - **Option Strategies**: There are no directional strategies. Volatility strategies involve selling a combination of call and put options, and there is no spot hedging strategy [11]. 3.5.5 Polyester - related Options (PTA) - **Fundamentals**: The PTA market's start - up rate and the operation of production facilities are presented [11]. - **Market Analysis**: PTA has shown an oversold rebound and short - term strong trend [11]. - **Option Factor Research**: PTA's implied volatility is at a relatively low level, and the open interest PCR indicates a strong market [11]. - **Option Strategies**: There are no directional strategies. Volatility strategies involve selling a combination of call and put options, and there is no spot hedging strategy [11]. 3.5.6 Alkali - related Options (Caustic Soda and Soda Ash) - **Fundamentals**: For caustic soda, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises is given. For soda ash, the domestic effective production capacity is presented [12]. - **Market Analysis**: Caustic soda has shown a weak - biased trend, and soda ash has shown a low - level weak oscillation [12]. - **Option Factor Research**: Caustic soda's implied volatility is at a high level, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak market. Soda ash's implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level, and the open interest PCR indicates a short - biased market [12]. - **Option Strategies**: For caustic soda, a bear spread strategy is constructed for directional gain, and a spot collar hedging strategy is used. For soda ash, volatility strategies involve short - selling volatility, and spot long - hedging strategies involve constructing long collar strategies [12]. 3.5.7 Other Options (Urea) - **Fundamentals**: The daily production data of urea are provided [13]. - **Market Analysis**: Urea has shown a short - term weak trend [13]. - **Option Factor Research**: Urea's implied volatility is at a low level, and the open interest PCR indicates strong short - side pressure [13]. - **Option Strategies**: There are no directional strategies. Volatility strategies involve selling a combination of call and put options with a long - biased delta, and spot hedging strategies involve holding spot long + buying at - the - money put options + selling out - of - the - money call options [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For non - ferrous metals, a neutral volatility strategy for sellers is recommended as they show a bullish upward trend [2]. - For the black - series metals, a strategy of shorting volatility is suitable due to their large - amplitude fluctuations [2]. - For precious metals, a bull - spread combination strategy is suggested as they are rebounding and rising [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various metal futures contracts, including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc [3]. 3.2 Option Factors 3.2.1 Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume PCR and open interest PCR of different metal options are provided, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively [4]. 3.2.2 Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure points, support points, and their offsets, as well as the maximum open interests of call and put options for different metal options, are given to analyze the pressure and support levels of the option underlyings [5]. 3.2.3 Implied Volatility - The report provides the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, its change, annual average, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, 20 - day historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility for various metal options [6]. 3.3 Strategy and Suggestions 3.3.1 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: A bull - spread combination strategy for call options is recommended for directional trading; a short - volatility option seller combination strategy is suggested to gain time - value; and a spot hedging strategy of holding long spot, buying put options, and selling out - of - the - money call options is proposed [7]. - **Aluminum**: A bull - spread combination strategy for call options is recommended for direction; a strategy of selling bullish call and put options is suggested to gain time - value and directional returns; and a spot collar strategy is proposed [9]. - **Zinc**: There is no directional strategy; a strategy of selling bullish call and put options is suggested to gain time - value; and a spot collar strategy is proposed [9]. - **Nickel**: There is no directional strategy; a strategy of selling bullish call and put options is suggested to gain time - value; and a spot covered - call strategy is proposed [10]. - **Tin**: There is no directional strategy; a short - volatility strategy is suggested to gain time - value; and a spot collar strategy is proposed [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There is no directional strategy; a strategy of selling bullish call and put options is suggested to gain time - value; and a spot hedging strategy of holding long spot, buying put options, and selling call options is proposed [11]. 3.3.2 Precious Metals - **Silver**: There is no directional strategy; a neutral short - volatility option seller combination strategy is suggested to gain time - value; and a spot hedging strategy of holding long spot, buying put options, and selling out - of - the - money call options is proposed [12]. 3.3.3 Black - Series Metals - **Rebar**: There is no directional strategy; a strategy of selling bearish call and put options is suggested to gain time - value; and a spot covered - call strategy is proposed [13]. - **Iron Ore**: There is no directional strategy; a strategy of selling neutral call and put options is suggested to gain time - value and directional returns; and a spot long - collar strategy is proposed [13]. - **Ferroalloys (Manganese Silicon and Silicon Ferros)**: For manganese silicon, there is no directional strategy; a short - volatility strategy is suggested to gain time - value; and no spot hedging strategy is proposed. For industrial silicon, there is no directional strategy; a short - volatility strategy of selling call and put options is suggested to gain time - value and directional returns; and a spot hedging strategy of holding long spot, buying put options, and selling call options is proposed [14]. - **Glass**: There is no directional strategy; a short - volatility strategy of selling call and put options is suggested to gain time - value; and a spot long - collar strategy is proposed [15].