Report 1: Glass Weekly Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the report. Report's Core View Recently, with multiple production lines undergoing cold repairs, the daily melting volume of glass has dropped to a multi - year low (15.01 tons), and the support from rising fuel costs has boosted market sentiment and driven up prices. On the spot side, influenced by the positive futures market, many glass manufacturers have announced price hikes, and dealers' purchasing sentiment is decent. However, due to the traditional off - season, terminal orders are growing sluggishly, and the high overall industry inventory continues to limit the upside potential of prices. The market should focus on the progress of high - inventory digestion and actual spot trading performance. Given the large short - term fluctuations, it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach [13][14]. Summary According to Directory 1. Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Price: As of January 9, 2026, the spot market price of float glass was 1020 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton; the closing price of the glass main contract was 1144 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 57 yuan/ton; the basis was - 124 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 37 yuan/ton [13][19]. - Cost and Profit: The weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas as fuel was - 186.4 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3780 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of producing float glass with coal as fuel was - 73.83 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8.6 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of producing float glass with petroleum coke as fuel was - 5.78 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 18.58 yuan/ton [13][29][32]. - Supply: As of January 9, 2026, the weekly output of national float glass was 105.92 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.413 tons; the number of operating production lines was 212, a week - on - week decrease of 2; the operating rate was 71.95% [13][37]. - Demand: According to WIND data, from January to November 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 78701.74 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8%; in November, the sales area of commercial housing was 6719.74 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.93%. According to CAAM data, in November, the production and sales of automobiles were 353.16/342.90 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 2.76%/3.40%; from January to November, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 3123.10/3112.70 million vehicles [13][43][46]. - Inventory: As of January 9, 2026, the in - factory inventory of national float glass was 5551.8 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 134.80 million heavy boxes; the in - factory inventory in the Shahe area was 261.36 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 95.28 million heavy boxes [13][51]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Glass Basis: As of January 9, 2026, the spot market price of float glass was 1020 yuan/ton, the closing price of the glass main contract was 1144 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 124 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 37 yuan/ton [19]. - Glass Inter - month Spread: As of January 9, 2026, the 01 - 05 spread of glass was - 120 yuan/ton (+18), the 05 - 09 spread was - 90 yuan/ton (+13), the 09 - 01 spread was 210 yuan/ton (- 31), and the open interest reached 154.85 million lots [22]. 3. Profit and Cost - Float Glass Profit and Cost: As of January 9, 2026, the weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas as fuel was - 186.4 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3780 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of producing float glass with coal as fuel was - 73.83 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8.6 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of producing float glass with petroleum coke as fuel was - 5.78 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 18.58 yuan/ton [29][32]. 4. Supply and Demand - Glass Production and Operating Rate: As of January 9, 2026, the weekly output of national float glass was 105.92 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.413 tons; the number of operating production lines was 212, a week - on - week decrease of 2; the operating rate was 71.95% [37]. - Glass Demand: As of January 9, 2026, the downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 8.6 days, a week - on - week decrease of 1.10 days; the operating rate of Low - e glass was 44.10%, unchanged from the previous week. From January to November 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 78701.74 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8%; in November, the sales area of commercial housing was 6719.74 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.93%. In November, the production and sales of automobiles were 353.16/342.90 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 2.76%/3.40%; from January to November, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 3123.10/3112.70 million vehicles [40][43][46]. 5. Inventory As of January 9, 2026, the in - factory inventory of national float glass was 5551.8 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 134.80 million heavy boxes; the in - factory inventory in the Shahe area was 261.36 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 95.28 million heavy boxes [51]. Report 2: Soda Ash Weekly Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the report. Report's Core View Last week, the overall supply of soda ash was stable, the load of some plants increased slightly, and the industry's operating rate rebounded. Meanwhile, the second - phase project of Alashan was officially put into production, and the market supply pressure continued. In terms of demand, the production capacity of photovoltaic glass and float glass showed a downward trend, the rigid demand for heavy soda ash decreased accordingly, downstream users generally adopted a cautious wait - and - see attitude, and most purchases were for low - price rigid needs, resulting in a dull overall trading atmosphere. Enterprise inventories continued to accumulate, and the pressure to sell goods increased significantly. Some manufacturers slightly lowered their quotes to promote sales. Although the price of local heavy soda ash increased slightly driven by the futures market in the later part of the week, the market still lacked substantial positive support, and the overall weak pattern remained unchanged [62][63]. Summary According to Directory 1. Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Price: As of January 9, 2026, the spot market price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1188 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 66 yuan/ton; the closing price of the soda ash main contract was 1228 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 19 yuan/ton; the basis was - 40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 47 yuan/ton [62][68]. - Cost and Profit: As of January 9, 2026, the weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 145.85 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 21.55 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 108 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4.5 yuan/ton. The price of steam coal arriving at Qinhuangdao Port was 700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3780 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The price of raw salt in the northwest region was 215 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2315 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton [62][79][82]. - Supply: As of January 9, 2026, the weekly output of soda ash was 75.36 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.65 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 84.39%. The output of heavy soda ash was 40.45 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.35 tons; the output of light soda ash was 34.91 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.30 tons [62][90][93]. - Demand: As of January 9, 2026, the weekly output of national float glass was 105.92 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.413 tons, the number of operating production lines was 212, a week - on - week decrease of 2, and the operating rate was 71.95%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in November reached 289 tons [62][96]. - Inventory: As of January 9, 2026, the in - factory inventory of soda ash was 157.27 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16.44 tons; the available inventory days were 13.04 days, a week - on - week increase of 1.36 days. The in - factory inventory of heavy soda ash was 73.62 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.01 tons; the in - factory inventory of light soda ash was 83.65 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.43 tons [62][101][104]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Soda Ash Basis: As of January 9, 2026, the spot market price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1188 yuan/ton, the closing price of the soda ash main contract was 1228 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 47 yuan/ton [68]. - Soda Ash Inter - month Spread: As of January 9, 2026, the 01 - 05 spread of soda ash was - 85 yuan/ton (- 1), the 05 - 09 spread was - 68 yuan/ton (- 5), the 09 - 01 spread was 153 yuan/ton (+6), and the open interest reached 154.85 million lots [71]. 3. Profit and Cost - Soda Ash Profit: As of January 9, 2026, the weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 145.85 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 21.55 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 108 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4.5 yuan/ton [79]. - Raw Material Cost: As of January 9, 2026, the price of steam coal arriving at Qinhuangdao Port was 700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3780 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The price of raw salt in the northwest region was 215 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2315 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton [82][85]. 4. Supply and Demand - Soda Ash Production: As of January 9, 2026, the weekly output of soda ash was 75.36 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.65 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 84.39%. The output of heavy soda ash was 40.45 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.35 tons; the output of light soda ash was 34.91 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.30 tons [90][93]. - Soda Ash Demand: As of January 9, 2026, the weekly output of national float glass was 105.92 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.413 tons, the number of operating production lines was 212, a week - on - week decrease of 2, and the operating rate was 71.95%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in November reached 289 tons [96]. 5. Inventory As of January 9, 2026, the in - factory inventory of soda ash was 157.27 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16.44 tons; the available inventory days were 13.04 days, a week - on - week increase of 1.36 days. The in - factory inventory of heavy soda ash was 73.62 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.01 tons; the in - factory inventory of light soda ash was 83.65 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.43 tons [101][104]

退税调整刺激短期需求， 加速上涨注意回调风险 碳酸锂周报 2026/01/10 曾宇轲（有色金属组） 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 CONTENTS 目录 03 供给端 06 成本端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 需求端 02 期现市场 05 库存 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度要点小结 ◆ 期现市场：1月9日，五矿钢联碳酸锂现货指数（MMLC）早盘报138653元，周涨18.6%。MMLC电池级碳酸锂均价为139100元。同日广期所 LC2605收盘价143420元，本周涨17.96%。 ◆ 供给：1月8日，SMM国内碳酸锂周度产量报22535吨，环比增0.5%。 ◆ 需求：乘联会数据，12月新能源车零售量138.7万辆，同比增长7%，环比增幅为5%，全年累计销量1285.9万辆，增速18%。当月厂商批发量 155.4万辆，同比增长3%，但环比下降9%，全年累计批发量达1531万辆，同比增长25%。1月湖南裕能、万润新材、德方纳米和常州锂源等头 部磷酸铁锂企业减产，淡季需求回落。 ◆ 库存：1月8日，国内碳酸锂周 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, precious metal prices rebounded strongly. Gold and silver prices in both domestic and international markets increased, with silver showing a more significant increase. Trump's policies have impacted the US dollar's credit, making international gold prices likely to rise and difficult to fall. The Bloomberg Commodity Index rebalancing and tariff rulings may have short - term negative impacts on silver prices, but in the medium - term, silver prices still have upward drivers. It is recommended to pay attention to the support levels of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff rebalancing nodes and conduct long - buying operations at low prices after the short - term negative factors end. The reference operating ranges for the main contracts of Shanghai gold and silver are 970 - 1050 yuan/gram and 16870 - 21000 yuan/kilogram respectively [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Market Outlook - **Price Performance**: This week, precious metal prices had a strong - leaning rebound. SHFE gold rose 2.96% to 1006.48 yuan/gram, SHFE silver rose 9.70% to 18731.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold rose 4.07% to 4518.40 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver rose 10.41% to 79.79 US dollars/ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was reported at 4.18%, and the US dollar index rose 0.69% to 99.14 [11]. - **Gold Price Driver**: Trump's multi - dimensional policies have further impacted the US dollar's credit, driving the strong performance of gold prices. The total holdings of major overseas gold ETFs increased from 2352.2 tons on January 2nd to 2355.2 tons on January 9th. International gold prices are generally expected to be prone to rise and difficult to fall [11]. - **Silver Price Analysis**: The volatility of silver prices has significantly increased. The 2026 BCOM index rebalancing will be gradually adjusted in batches starting from January 8th and completed around January 15th. The potential reduction of long positions in silver by commodity funds or ETFs tracking the BCOM index and the possible outflow of silver spot from the US if the silver tariff is exempted are short - term negative factors for silver prices. However, in the medium - term, the large holdings of silver ETFs and the expected increase in silver imports in India in the first quarter will support silver prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the support levels of gold and silver prices around the rebalancing nodes and conduct long - buying operations at low prices after the short - term negative factors end [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: The technical graph of SHFE gold shows a trend of upward breakthrough at the end of the triangular convergence, and further price increases are expected. The technical graph of SHFE silver is extremely strong, having entered the accelerated upward phase. Attention should be paid to the resistance level of 20000 yuan/kilogram above. If it is effectively broken, the upward trend can continue [13][15]. 2. Market Review - **Price and Position Changes**: This week, domestic and international gold and silver prices rose. The total positions of SHFE gold increased by 1.87% to 31.86 million lots, and the total positions of COMEX gold increased by 1.3% to 48.81 million lots as of the latest reporting period. The total positions of SHFE silver increased by 6.19% to 67.79 million lots, and the total positions of COMEX silver decreased by 2.64% to 15.32 million lots as of the latest reporting period. As of the latest reporting period on January 6th, the net long positions of COMEX gold managed funds decreased by 2827 lots to 123,200 lots, and the net positions of COMEX silver managed funds increased by 1814 lots to 15,822 lots [28][30][34][36]. - **ETF Holdings**: The total holdings of gold ETFs within the Reuters statistical scope were 2355.2 tons as of January 9th, and the total holdings of overseas silver ETFs were 29294.9 tons [39]. 3. Interest Rates and Liquidity - **US Treasury Yield**: The report presents the spreads between 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury bonds and the yields of short - term US Treasury bonds [50][51]. - **Interest Rates and Inflation Expectations**: It shows the US federal funds rate, overnight reverse repurchase rate, 10 - year nominal interest rate, real interest rate, and inflation expectations [53][54]. - **Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet**: The weekly changes in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet are detailed, including the changes in assets and liabilities. The total assets decreased by 670.16 billion US dollars [55]. 4. Macroeconomic Data - **CPI and PCE**: In November, the year - on - year CPI in the US was 2.7%, significantly lower than the expected 3.1% and the previous value of 3.0% in September. The year - on - year core CPI was 2.6%, lower than the expected previous value of 3.0% in September [62]. - **Employment Situation**: As of the week ending on January 3rd, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 208,000, lower than the expected 210,000 [65]. - **PMI and PPI**: In December, the ISM manufacturing PMI in the US was 47.9, lower than the expected 48.3 and the previous value of 48.2. The ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 54.4, higher than the expected 52.3 and the previous value of 52.6 [68]. - **New Housing Data**: In October, the annualized total number of new housing starts in the US was 1.246 million, lower than the expected 1.325 million and the previous value of 1.291 million. The annualized total number of building permits was 1.412 million, higher than the expected 1.35 million [71]. 5. Precious Metal Spreads - **Gold Basis**: The report shows the basis between gold TD and SHFE gold [74]. - **Silver Basis**: It presents the basis between silver TD and SHFE silver [77]. - **Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Gold and Silver**: The domestic - foreign spreads of gold and silver are shown [80]. 6. Precious Metal Inventories - **Silver Inventories**: The report shows the silver inventories of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, COMEX, and LBMA [87][90][91]. - **Gold Inventories**: It presents the gold inventories of COMEX and LBMA [92][94].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - At the end of December, the news that Indonesia's 2026 RKAB plan set a nickel ore quota of about 250 million tons boosted the nickel price and drove the stainless - steel market price to rise. However, on Thursday, the sudden increase of 20,000 tons in the nickel inventory of the London Metal Exchange broke the market's expectation of supply shortage. Coupled with the previous rapid increase in nickel price, which had deviated from the fundamentals and actual transactions, a large number of profit - taking orders left the market, leading to a sharp decline in nickel price and a synchronous correction in stainless - steel futures price. On the spot side, affected by the poor connection between raw material procurement and production, the arrival rhythm of steel mills has slowed down recently. On the demand side, due to the tight supply of steel mills and the low inventory of traders, the demand for restocking and re - allocating goods has been released intensively, and the market has reported quantities actively, but steel mills are still cautious in taking orders. The sharp price fluctuations have intensified the market game, and both buyers and sellers are in a stalemate. In the short term, with solid cost support, low supply from steel mills, and continuous inventory reduction, the price is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend [12][13]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Key Points Summary** - **Futures and Spot Market**: On January 9th, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was reported at 13,800 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 4.94%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 955 yuan/nickel, a month - on - month increase of 3.80%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was reported at 9,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.25%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 13,860 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5.60% [12]. - **Supply**: In January, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production schedule was 1.4586 million tons. In December, the crude steel output was 2.8284 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 220,200 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to December was 6.48%. In December, the expected output of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel was 1.4043 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%; in January, the output of 300 - series cold - rolled stainless steel was 736,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.96% [12]. - **Demand**: From January to November 2025 in China, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing was 787.0174 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.80%; in November, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 67.1974 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.93%. In November, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 4%, 5.6%, - 23.4%, and 5.5% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry in November was 23.6% [12]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 948,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.97%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 47,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14,084 tons. The social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel last week were 139,600/608,600/200,200 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series decreased by 2.35% month - on - month; the floating quantity of stainless steel last week was 30,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.36%, and the unloading quantity was 90,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.16% [12]. - **Cost**: Last week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 960 yuan/nickel, a month - on - month increase of 35 yuan/nickel, and iron mills in Fujian were currently losing 33 yuan/nickel [12]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - On January 9th, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was reported at 13,800 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 4.94%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 955 yuan/nickel, a month - on - month increase of 3.80%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was reported at 9,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.25%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 13,860 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5.60% [18]. - The market quotation of Foshan Delong was about - 360 yuan (- 54) higher than the main contract; the market quotation of Wuxi Hongwang was about - 260 yuan (- 34) higher than the main contract. The trading volume of the futures contract was 226,905 lots, a month - on - month increase of 24.97% [21]. - In terms of the price difference between different months, the price difference between consecutive contracts 1 and 2 was reported at - 85 (+20), and the price difference between consecutive contracts 1 and 3 was reported at - 140 (+55) [24]. 3.3. Supply Side - In January, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production schedule was 1.4586 million tons. In December, the crude steel output was 2.8284 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 220,200 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to December was 6.48% [29]. - In December, the expected output of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel was 1.4043 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%; in January, the output of 300 - series cold - rolled stainless steel was 736,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.96% [32]. - It is estimated that in November, the monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia was 430,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.27%, and the cumulative output from January to November reached 4.53 million tons. In November, China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 87,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.56%, and the cumulative imports from January to November were 1.104 million tons [35]. - In November, the net export volume of stainless steel was 293,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.31% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.14%; the cumulative net export from January to November was 3.1719 million tons, a 12.64% increase compared with the same period last year [38]. 3.4. Demand Side - From January to November 2025 in China, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing was 787.0174 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.80%; in November, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 67.1974 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.93% [43]. - In November, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 4%, 5.6%, - 23.4%, and 5.5% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry in November was 23.6% [46]. - In November, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 132,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 16.81% and a year - on - year increase of 3.12%; the sales volume of automobiles in November was 3.429 million units, a month - on - month increase of 3.22% and a year - on - year increase of 3.40% [49]. 3.5. Inventory - Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 948,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.97%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 47,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14,084 tons [54]. - The social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel last week were 139,600/608,600/200,200 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series decreased by 2.35% month - on - month; the floating quantity of stainless steel last week was 30,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.36%, and the unloading quantity was 90,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.16% [57]. 3.6. Cost Side - In November, the import volume of nickel ore was 3.3395 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.67% and a year - on - year increase of 3.66%. Currently, the quoted price of nickel ore with 1.5% nickel content is 54.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory is 13.3203 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.23% [62]. - Last week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 960 yuan/nickel, a month - on - month increase of 35 yuan/nickel, and iron mills in Fujian were currently losing 33 yuan/nickel [65]. - Last week, the quoted price of chrome ore was 53.5 yuan/dry ton, a month - on - month increase of 1 yuan/dry ton; the quoted price of high - carbon ferrochrome was 8,200 yuan/50 - base tons, a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/50 - base tons. In December, the output of high - carbon ferrochrome was 887,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.66% [68]. - The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel - iron production line is 362 yuan/ton, and the profit margin reaches 2.69% [71].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - Affected by the expected reduction in cotton planting area in Xinjiang and the better - than - expected downstream operation in the off - season, the price of Zhengzhou cotton has risen significantly. After reaching a high level, the short - term price volatility may increase. It is recommended to wait for a callback and then go long [9] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The price of US cotton futures continued to fluctuate. As of Friday, the closing price of the March contract was 64.48 cents/pound, up 0.47 cents/pound from the previous week, a 0.73% increase. The US cotton 3 - 5 spread was - 1.48 cents/pound, down 0.14 cents/pound from the previous week. Domestically, the price of Zhengzhou cotton rose first and then fell. The closing price of the May contract was 14,675 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton from the previous week, a 0.62% increase. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 15,930 yuan/ton, up 374 yuan/ton from the previous week. The basis was 1,234 yuan/ton, up 277 yuan/ton from the previous week. The Zhengzhou cotton 5 - 9 spread was - 185 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous week [9] - **Industry Information**: Brazil exported 450,000 tons of raw cotton in December, an increase of 100,000 tons year - on - year and 50,000 tons month - on - month. Among them, exports to China were 146,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons year - on - year and 40,000 tons month - on - month. As of the week ending January 1, the US current - year cotton export sales were 23,200 tons, with cumulative export sales of 1.5425 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 239,100 tons. Among them, exports to China were 3,200 tons that week, with cumulative exports of 71,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 83,900 tons. As of the week ending January 9, the spinning mill operating rate was 64.7%, unchanged from the previous week and 7.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.57 million tons, an increase of 290,000 tons year - on - year [9] - **Viewpoint and Strategy**: Wait for a callback and then go long [9][10][11] 2. Spread Trend Review - **Spot Price and Basis**: The report presents the trends of the China Cotton Price Index and the basis of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract through charts [25][26] - **Import Profit**: The report shows the trends of the 1% tariff internal - external price difference and the sliding - scale tariff internal - external price difference through charts [27][28] - **Zhengzhou Cotton Spread**: The report displays the trends of the Zhengzhou cotton 1 - 5 spread and the Zhengzhou cotton 5 - 9 spread through charts [29][30] - **Production - Sales Area Spread and Spinning Profit**: The report presents the trends of the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread and the spinning mill's immediate profit through charts [31][32] - **Foreign Market Spread**: The report shows the trends of the US - Brazil spread and the FCindexM1% - CotlookA Index 1% tariff through charts [36][37] 3. Domestic Market Situation - **Domestic Cotton Production**: The report shows the trends of China's cotton processing and inspection quantity and Xinjiang's seed cotton purchase price through charts [40][41] - **Cotton Import Volume**: The report presents the trends of China's monthly and annual cumulative cotton import volumes through charts [42][43] - **US Export Contract Quantity to China**: The report shows the trends of the US cumulative and weekly export contract quantities to China through charts [44][45] - **Cotton Yarn Import Volume**: The report presents the trends of China's monthly and annual cumulative cotton yarn import volumes through charts [46][47] - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The report shows the trends of the spinning mill and weaving mill operating rates through charts [49][50] - **National Sales Progress**: The report presents the trends of the national cotton sales progress and the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City through charts [52][53] - **Cotton Inventory**: The report shows the trends of China's weekly commercial cotton inventory and the monthly inventory of commercial + industrial through charts [54][55] - **Spinning Mill's Raw Material and Finished - Product Inventory**: The report presents the trends of the spinning mill's cotton inventory and yarn inventory through charts [56][57] 4. International Market Situation - **US Planting Situation**: The report shows the trends of the proportion of US cotton planting areas without drought and the US cotton good - quality rate through charts [60][61] - **US Production Situation**: The report presents the trends of the US cotton bi - weekly processing volume and cumulative processing volume through charts [62][63] - **US Yield and Planting Area**: The report shows the trends of the US cotton yield forecast and planting area through charts [64][66] - **US Export Contract Progress**: The report presents the trends of the US current - year cumulative and weekly export contract quantities through charts [68][69] - **US Export Shipment Volume**: The report shows the trends of the US annual cumulative and weekly export shipment volumes through charts [70][71] - **US Supply and Inventory - Consumption Ratio**: The report presents the trends of the US cotton supply surplus/shortage and inventory - consumption ratio through charts [72] - **Brazil Yield and Planting Area**: The report shows the trends of Brazil's cotton planting area and yield through charts [73][74] - **Brazil Export Volume**: The report presents the trends of Brazil's cotton export volume forecast and monthly export volume through charts [76][77] - **Brazil Supply and Inventory - Consumption Ratio**: The report shows the trends of Brazil's cotton supply surplus/shortage and inventory - consumption ratio through charts [79] - **India Yield and Planting Area**: The report presents the trends of India's cotton planting area and yield through charts [81][82] - **India Consumption and Import - Export**: The report shows the trends of India's cotton consumption, import and export volumes through charts [84][85] - **India Supply and Inventory - Consumption Ratio**: The report presents the trends of India's cotton supply surplus/shortage and inventory - consumption ratio through charts [87]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's view: The current valuation of methanol is low, and its future pattern is expected to improve marginally, with limited downside potential. Despite short - term negative pressures, the recent geopolitical instability in Iran has brought certain geopolitical expectations, making it feasible to buy on dips [16]. - This week's view: Maintain the strategy of buying on dips [16]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Assessment - **Factor Assessment & Strategy** - **Supply**: Overseas methanol production starts to slow seasonally, while domestic production remains at a high level. In terms of trade flow, previous high overseas shipments are arriving at ports, and current overseas shipments are seasonally decreasing, with a neutral outlook [16]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of MTO, olefins, and formaldehyde remain relatively high, and MTO valuation is low but lacks obvious driving forces. Downstream users are hesitant about the current methanol price, which limits the upside, with a neutral outlook [16]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory is decreasing at a slower pace from a high level and is expected to start accumulating again. Factory inventory remains stable, with a slightly bearish outlook [16]. - **Cost**: The replenishment of thermal coal is less than expected, and its price has started to decline from a high level. Oil and gas prices are in a weak oscillation, with expected limited fluctuations, with a neutral outlook [16]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Basis and Spread**: Multiple charts show the term structure of methanol, prices in Jiangsu, basis of methanol 01, and spreads between methanol 1 - 5, etc., reflecting the price relationship between futures and spot markets [20][22][26]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Charts display the open interest and trading volume of methanol 01 contract, as well as the total open interest and trading volume of methanol, which can reflect market activity [29][32]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Raw Material Prices**: Include the prices of IPE UK natural gas, NYMEX natural gas, and thermal coal (Ordos Q5500 and Qinhuangdao Port Q5500), which are important factors affecting methanol production costs [43][45]. - **Production Profit**: Calculate the production profits of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, Shandong, and other regions, as well as the profit of gas - based methanol in the southwest region, which can reflect the profitability of methanol production [48][49]. - **Port Inventory**: Show the inventory of ports in South China, East China, and the social inventory of methanol, which can reflect the supply situation in the market [53][55]. - **Regional Inventory**: Include the inventory in factories, the northwest region, the east region, and Ningbo Port, which can reflect the inventory distribution in different regions [64]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Shipment Monitoring**: Monitor the global and Middle - East methanol shipments, as well as the arrivals in Asia - Pacific and China, which can reflect the supply situation from overseas [68]. - **Upstream Output and Operating Rate**: Display the domestic and overseas methanol operating rates and weekly output, which can reflect the domestic and overseas production capacity utilization [71][73]. - **Import Volume**: Analyze the import volume of methanol from Iran, Oman, Saudi Arabia, etc., and the total import volume and its projection, which can reflect the import situation [74][78]. - **Arrival Volume**: Show the arrival volume of methanol in East China, South China, and the whole of China, which can reflect the actual supply from overseas [83]. - **International Price Difference**: Analyze the import profit, price differences between China and Southeast Asia, the US Gulf, and Europe, which can reflect the international price relationship [85]. - **Regional Price Difference**: Indicate that port prices are weaker than inland prices, and show the price differences between East China and Inner Mongolia, East China and South Shandong, etc., which can reflect the regional price relationship [87][88]. - **Domestic Freight**: Show the freight rates of methanol transportation from different regions, which can reflect the transportation cost [96]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Methanol - to - Olefins**: Analyze the operating rates of olefins and Jiangsu - Zhejiang MTO, as well as the profits of Fude and Xingxing in the MTO process, and the production profits of PP through different processes, and relevant price differences, which can reflect the demand and profitability of the methanol - to - olefins industry [100][101][110]. - **Traditional Downstream**: Analyze the capacity utilization rates of 1,4 - butanediol, the operating rates and profits of DMF, DMC, acetic acid, formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, etc., as well as the downstream inventory and relevant product price ratios, which can reflect the demand situation of traditional downstream industries [121][122][133]. 3.6 Option - Related - **Methanol Options**: Show the open interest, trading volume, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of methanol options, which can reflect the market sentiment and trading activity of the option market [141]. 3.7 Industry Structure Diagram - **Methanol Industry Chain**: Display the methanol industry chain and the research framework analysis mind - map, which can help understand the overall structure and research ideas of the methanol industry [145][147].

预计盘面维持偏强震荡，警惕市场 情绪的短期冲击与高波动风险 双焦周报 2026/01/10 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 供给及需求 02 期现市场 05 库存 03 持仓及品种比价 01 周度评估及策略推荐 行情回顾 图1： 焦煤加权指数价格走势（元/吨，日线） 资料来源：文华财经，五矿期货研究中心 上周，焦煤盘面价格出现显著上涨，向上突破1150元/吨压力关口，周度涨幅85.5元/吨或+7.69%（针对加权指数，下同）。主要的驱动，一 方面在于有色及贵金属等营造出的相对亢奋的商品市场氛围（文华商品指数一度涨超3%）；另一方面，关于榆林地区部分核增产能因2024- 2025电煤保供落实不力被调出保供名单并核减产能1900万吨的消息引发资金对于煤炭供给边际收缩，政策再度趋紧的预期，成为触发焦煤盘 面低估值背景下向上补涨的驱动。技术形态角度，焦煤盘面仍处于反弹周期中，上方关注1260元/吨附近压力位置（2021年10月份以来长期 下跌趋势压力及左 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The nickel market is experiencing intensified competition between expectations and reality, with nickel prices expected to fluctuate widely at high levels. The market has shifted from "strong expectations" to "weak reality," and sentiment has turned from optimistic to cautious. The short - term outlook for nickel prices remains uncertain, with prices expected to continue to fluctuate widely [11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Nickel Ore**: This week, influenced by the significant increase in LME nickel prices, Philippine nickel ore offers were slightly raised. However, downstream smelters, with sufficient previous stockpiles, had limited acceptance of high prices, and the procurement pace slowed significantly. Affected by rainfall, Philippine ore shipments were disrupted, and nickel ore inventories at Chinese ports decreased slightly. In Indonesia, the domestic nickel ore benchmark price was slightly raised, but the spot price was weak. Due to the rainy season, forestry reviews, and delays in MOMS system verification, mine shipments slowed down, and miners were reluctant to sell. Overall, the short - term nickel ore market has weak demand and supply disruptions but no significant tightening. Nickel ore prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels [11][12]. - **Ferronickel**: The price of high - nickel pig iron in China rose significantly this week. The average price of SMM 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 31.23 yuan/nickel point to 946.4 yuan/nickel point (ex - factory tax included). This was mainly driven by the widening of the spot - futures price difference and upstream price support. Some Indonesian iron plants switched to producing high - grade nickel matte, and traders locked in goods for arbitrage, resulting in tight market supplies. Although the downstream is in the off - season, the increase in futures prices has improved the profits of stainless - steel enterprises, supporting the ferronickel price. In the short term, the high - nickel pig iron price is expected to remain strong [11][12]. - **Intermediate Products**: In the intermediate product market this week, the increase in nickel prices drove the profit recovery of some electrolytic nickel plants, and the demand for raw material inquiry and restocking gradually emerged. However, nickel salt plants were still cautious in purchasing due to sufficient previous stockpiles. The spot circulation of MHP was limited, and the tight supply supported the nickel and cobalt coefficients at high levels and stable operation. The supply - demand pattern of high - grade nickel matte remained tight, but downstream acceptance of high coefficients was limited, and trading was light. The coefficients are expected to continue to operate at high levels [11][12]. - **Refined Nickel**: This week, nickel prices first rose and then fell. At the beginning of the week, driven by the expectation of Indonesian nickel ore quotas and macro - loose sentiment, both domestic and foreign prices soared rapidly. However, in the middle of the week, due to a significant increase in inventory and limited downstream acceptance of high prices, prices dropped sharply. The sharp increase in LME nickel inventory and weak downstream demand quickly shifted the market from "strong expectations" to "weak reality," and sentiment turned from optimistic to cautious. In the spot market, the price and premium of electrolytic nickel generally increased, but downstream purchasing willingness was limited, with obvious speculative hoarding characteristics. Domestically, loose liquidity supported prices, but the postponement of overseas interest - rate cut expectations dampened sentiment. It is expected that Shanghai nickel will continue to fluctuate widely in the short term. The short - term operating range of Shanghai nickel is expected to be 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME 3M nickel contract is 16,500 - 19,000 US dollars/ton [11][12]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - The report presents multiple charts related to nickel, including the price trends of nickel futures contracts, nickel spot premiums and discounts, and prices of secondary nickel products such as ferronickel and nickel sulfate, providing a comprehensive view of the nickel futures and spot market [15][18][21]. 3. Cost - Side - **Nickel Ore**: The report shows data on Philippine nickel ore exports, domestic nickel ore imports, and nickel ore prices in Indonesia and the Philippines through various charts, reflecting the supply and price situation of the nickel ore market [26][28][30]. - **Ferronickel**: It presents the monthly production and production profit of ferronickel in Indonesia and China, helping to understand the cost and profitability of the ferronickel industry [32][34]. - **Intermediate Products**: Data on the production of Indonesian MHP and high - grade nickel matte, domestic imports of MHP and nickel matte, and the price and transaction coefficients of intermediate products are provided, showing the supply, demand, and price trends of the intermediate product market [36][38][40]. 4. Refined Nickel - **Supply**: In December 2025, China's refined nickel production was 29,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 666 tons. The report also provides charts on domestic refined nickel monthly production and enterprise operating rates [44][45][46]. - **Demand**: The report uses multiple charts to analyze the demand for refined nickel, including domestic stainless - steel production and inventory, manufacturing terminal demand, and real - estate demand [47][49]. - **Import and Export**: Charts show domestic refined nickel import volume and import profit and loss, reflecting the import and export situation of refined nickel [51]. - **Inventory**: This week, the global visible nickel inventory increased by 32,814 tons to 344,377 tons. The report also shows domestic refined nickel inventory and LME regional inventories [53][55]. - **Cost**: Charts present the production cost of domestic refined nickel by raw material and the production profit margin by process [56]. 5. Nickel Sulfate - **Supply**: The report provides data on China's nickel sulfate production and net imports through charts, showing the supply situation of the nickel sulfate market [60][61]. - **Demand**: Charts show the installed capacity of ternary power batteries and the production of ternary precursors in China, reflecting the demand for nickel sulfate [63][64]. - **Cost and Price**: It presents the production cost, price, and production profit margin of battery - grade nickel sulfate from different raw materials [65][66][67]. 6. Supply - Demand Balance The report details the supply - demand balance of the global primary nickel market from 2024Q1 to 2026Q4, including production, consumption, and inventory data of various nickel products such as NPI, refined nickel, and nickel salts. It also calculates the supply - demand gap and its proportion, as well as the supply - demand gap and proportion of refined nickel, and shows changes in global refined nickel visible inventory [70][71].

徐绍祖（联系人） 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号： Z0022675 春季检修将至， 做多EB连1-连2 苯乙烯周报 从业资格号：F03115061 2026/01/10 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 成本端 02 期现市场 05 供给端 03 利润库存 06 需求端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 本周预测：纯苯（BZ2603）：参考整荡区间（5300-5600）；苯乙烯(EB2602)：参考震荡区间（6900-6900）。 纯苯&苯乙烯周度策略 【行情资讯】 政策端：国际地缘冲突升级，美国接管委内瑞拉原油出口，能化板块小幅反弹。 估值：苯乙烯周度涨幅（期货＞现货＞成本），基差走弱，BZN价差上涨，EB非一体化装置利润上涨。 成本端：上周华东纯苯现货价格下跌-0.19%，纯苯期货活跃合约价格上涨0.09%，纯苯基差下跌15元/吨，纯苯开工率高位震荡。 供应端：EB产能利用率70.7%，环比上涨2.27%，同比去年下降-4.21%，较5年同期下降-6.97%。苯乙烯非一体化利润修复，开工 率随之上升。 进出口：11月国内纯苯进口量为 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, tin prices rebounded significantly due to the recovery of risk appetite in commodities, the upward resonance of the non - ferrous sector, the weak supply of refined tin caused by the reduction of scrap in Jiangxi, and the replenishment of raw material inventory by downstream tin enterprises. The tin market supply and demand maintained a tight balance, and it is expected that tin prices will likely fluctuate at a high level in the short term [11][13]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost side: In November 2025, the import of tin concentrates in China increased significantly, and the shortage of raw material supply was alleviated. The import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 15,099 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.81% and a year - on - year increase of 24.42%. The imports from Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of the Congo showed different trends [12]. - Supply side: The operating rate of smelters in Yunnan remained high at 87.09% this week, with limited room for further improvement due to tight raw material supply. Jiangxi was affected by the shortage of scrap supply, with tight crude tin supply and low refined tin output [11][12]. - Demand side: Although the demand for consumer electronics entered the traditional off - season at the end of the year, the operating rate of tin solder enterprises remained stable supported by orders from emerging fields. Downstream enterprises adopted a low - inventory strategy, and spot procurement was mainly for rigid demand [11][12]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - No relevant content for summary other than the presentation of graphs about the basis of Shanghai tin main contract and LME tin premium (0 - 3). 3.3. Cost Side - The presentation of graphs about China's monthly tin ore production, tin ore imports, tin concentrate prices, and tin concentrate processing fees, but no specific data analysis and summary content provided. 3.4. Supply Side - The presentation of graphs about domestic refined tin monthly production, domestic recycled tin monthly production, tin production and operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi, refined tin export and import profits, domestic refined tin imports, and Indonesia's refined tin imports and exports, without specific data analysis and summary content. 3.5. Demand Side - China's semiconductor sales growth rate rebounded slightly, and global semiconductor sales maintained high growth. Graphs about the output of various downstream products such as computers, smartphones, home appliances, photovoltaic products, etc., and the operating rate of downstream solder enterprises and domestic tin apparent consumption were presented, but no specific data analysis and summary content provided [44]. 3.6. Supply - Demand Balance - The presentation of graphs about China's social inventory and LME inventory, without specific data analysis and summary content.