农产品期权 2026-01-06 农产品期权策略早报 | 李立勤 | 高级投研经 | 从业资格号：F3074095 | 交易咨询号：Z0017896 | 邮箱：lilq@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 理 | | | | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 农产品期权策略早报概要：油料油脂类农产品偏弱震荡，油脂类，农副产品维持震荡行情，软商品白糖小幅震荡， 棉花偏强盘整，谷物类玉米和淀粉偏多窄幅盘整。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an energy and chemical options strategy morning report dated January 6, 2026 [2] - It covers various energy and chemical options, including energy (crude oil, LPG), polyolefins (PP, PVC, etc.), polyesters (PX, PTA, etc.), and alkali chemicals (caustic soda, soda ash) [3] - The recommended strategy is to construct option combination strategies mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3] Group 2: Underlying Futures Market Overview - The table shows the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various option underlying futures contracts [4] - For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2602) is 428, with a price increase of 1 and a gain of 0.30%, trading volume of 4.45 million lots, and open interest of 3.43 million lots [4] Group 3: Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The table presents the trading volume, volume change, open interest, open interest change, volume PCR, volume PCR change, open interest PCR, and open interest PCR change of various options [5] - Volume PCR and open interest PCR are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market, respectively [5] Group 4: Option Factors - Resistance and Support Levels - The table lists the at - the - money strike price, resistance point, resistance point deviation, support point, support point deviation, maximum call option open interest, and maximum put option open interest of various options [6] - These levels are determined based on the strike prices of the maximum open interest of call and put options [6] Group 5: Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The table shows the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, weighted implied volatility change, annual average implied volatility, call option implied volatility, put option implied volatility, HISV20, and the difference between implied and historical volatility of various options [7] - The weighted implied volatility uses volume - weighted average [7] Group 6: Strategy and Recommendations for Energy Options - Crude Oil - Fundamental analysis: US military raid on Maduro, Saudi - UAE rift in Yemen, OPEC+ expected to maintain production policy, NNPC aims to increase production [8] - Market analysis: Crude oil showed a weak - biased market trend after a series of price movements [8] - Option factor research: Implied volatility remained below the average, open interest PCR indicated a weak market, resistance level was 540, and support level was 440 [8] - Strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [8] Group 7: Strategy and Recommendations for Other Options - Similar analyses and strategy recommendations are provided for LPG, methanol, ethylene glycol, PVC, rubber, PTA, caustic soda, soda ash, and urea options [9][10][11] - Each analysis includes fundamental analysis, market analysis, option factor research, and corresponding strategy recommendations [10][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints - For non - ferrous metals, a seller's neutral volatility strategy can be constructed as they tend to move upwards; for the black series, a short - volatility combination strategy is suitable due to their large - amplitude fluctuations; for precious metals that are rebounding, a bull spread combination strategy can be built [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The latest prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various metal futures contracts such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., are presented [3] 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The trading volume, volume change, open interest, open interest change, trading volume PCR, volume PCR change, open interest PCR, and open interest PCR change of various metal options are provided. Volume PCR and open interest PCR are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively [4] 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The strike price at the money, pressure points, pressure point offsets, support points, support point offsets, maximum call option open interest, and maximum put option open interest of various metal options are given. These are used to analyze the pressure and support levels of the option underlyings [5] 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, weighted implied volatility change, annual average implied volatility, call option implied volatility, put option implied volatility, 20 - day historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility of various metal options are presented [6] 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations 3.5.1 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Based on the fundamentals and market trends of copper, directional, volatility, and spot long - hedging strategies are proposed, such as constructing a bull spread combination strategy for call options, a short - volatility seller option combination strategy, and a spot long - hedging strategy [7] - **Aluminum**: Considering the fundamentals and market trends of aluminum, directional, volatility, and spot long - hedging strategies are recommended, including constructing a bull spread combination strategy for call options, a sell - biased long call + put option combination strategy, and a spot collar strategy [9] - **Zinc**: According to the fundamentals and market trends of zinc, volatility and spot long - hedging strategies are suggested, like constructing a sell - biased long call + put option combination strategy and a spot collar strategy [9] - **Nickel**: Based on the fundamentals and market trends of nickel, directional, volatility, and spot - covered strategies are put forward, such as constructing a bull spread combination strategy for call options, a sell - biased long call + put option combination strategy, and a spot - covered strategy [10] - **Tin**: Considering the fundamentals and market trends of tin, volatility and spot long - hedging strategies are recommended, including constructing a short - volatility strategy and a spot collar strategy [10] - **Lithium Carbonate**: According to the fundamentals and market trends of lithium carbonate, volatility and spot long - hedging strategies are suggested, like constructing a sell - biased long call + put option combination strategy and a spot long - hedging strategy [11] 3.5.2 Precious Metals - **Silver**: Based on the fundamentals and market trends of silver, volatility and spot - hedging strategies are proposed, such as constructing a neutral short - volatility option seller combination strategy and a spot - hedging strategy [12] 3.5.3 Black Series - **Rebar**: Considering the fundamentals and market trends of rebar, volatility and spot long - covered strategies are recommended, including constructing a sell - biased short call + put option combination strategy and a spot long - covered strategy [13] - **Iron Ore**: Based on the fundamentals and market trends of iron ore, volatility and spot long - hedging strategies are put forward, such as constructing a sell - neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy [13] - **Ferroalloys**: For manganese silicon, volatility strategies are suggested, like constructing a short - volatility strategy; for industrial silicon, volatility and spot long - hedging strategies are recommended; for glass, volatility and spot long - hedging strategies are put forward [14][15]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current geopolitical situation in Latin America does not provide sufficient bullish support for overall oil prices, but the valuation of heavy - oil products will be significantly increased. The valuation of heavy - oil products is upgraded to overweight, and the crack spreads of asphalt or fuel oil are expected to have upward momentum [2]. - The current valuation of methanol is low, and its outlook for the coming year is marginally improving with limited downside. Despite short - term negative pressure, the recent geopolitical instability in Iran has brought certain geopolitical expectations, making it feasible to go long on dips [4]. - The current situation of the domestic - foreign price difference has opened the import window. Coupled with the expectation of increased production at the end of January, negative expectations for the urea fundamentals are approaching, so it is advisable to take profits on rallies [6]. - For rubber, a neutral approach is currently adopted, with a temporary wait - and - see attitude. It is recommended to partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [13]. - For PVC, the comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a historically low level, with relatively small short - term valuation pressure. However, the reduction in supply is limited, and production is at a historical high. Domestic demand is entering the off - season, and the demand side is under pressure. Although the Indian BIS policy has been revoked and no anti - dumping duties are expected, there is still off - season pressure. Overall, the supply - demand imbalance persists, and a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended in the medium term before significant production cuts in the industry [15]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is currently moderately low, with a large upward repair space for valuation. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant. The production of styrene is increasing, and its port inventory is continuously decreasing. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [19]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026, and the oil price may have bottomed out. The spot price of polyethylene is rising, and the downward space for PE valuation still exists. The overall inventory is expected to decline from a high level, providing support for prices. In the long term, it is advisable to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [22]. - For polypropylene, the EIA monthly report predicts a slight reduction in global oil inventories, and the supply glut may ease. There are no capacity expansion plans in the first half of 2026, and the pressure on the supply side will be relieved. In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. The price of the futures contract is expected to bottom out after the supply glut situation changes in the first quarter of next year [25]. - For PX, the current PX load remains high, and there are many maintenance activities for downstream PTA. Before the maintenance season, PX is expected to maintain a slight inventory - building pattern. Although the valuation has increased significantly, the supply - demand situation of both PX and downstream PTA will be strong next year. Attention should be paid to the risk of price corrections in the short term, and opportunities to go long on dips should be considered in the medium term [28]. - For PTA, the supply side will maintain a high level of maintenance in the short term, and the polyester fiber profit is under pressure. The load of the industry will gradually decline due to the off - season. After a short - term inventory reduction, PTA is expected to enter an inventory - building period during the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the risk of price corrections in the short term, and opportunities to go long on dips should be considered in the medium term [31]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load of the industry is still relatively high. Although the expected import volume in January will decline, the decline is limited, and the port inventory - building cycle will continue. In the medium term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and production reduction under the pressure of new capacity. The valuation is currently moderately low compared to the same period in previous years. In the absence of further production cuts in China, the valuation is expected to be compressed [33]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures contract closed down 14.80 yuan/barrel, a 3.39% decline, at 421.70 yuan/barrel. The main futures contracts of related refined oil products also declined: high - sulfur fuel oil closed down 29.00 yuan/ton, a 1.18% decline, at 2427.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed down 65.00 yuan/ton, a 2.20% decline, at 2891.00 yuan/ton. European ARA weekly data showed that gasoline inventory increased by 1.38 million barrels to 10.52 million barrels, a 15.07% increase; diesel inventory decreased by 0.12 million barrels to 14.61 million barrels, a 0.81% decrease; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.37 million barrels to 7.06 million barrels, a 5.60% increase; naphtha inventory decreased by 0.83 million barrels to 4.63 million barrels, a 15.18% decrease; aviation kerosene inventory decreased by 0.36 million barrels to 7.82 million barrels, a 4.43% decrease; the overall refined oil inventory increased by 0.44 million barrels to 44.64 million barrels, a 1.00% increase [1]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The spot prices in different regions showed changes: Jiangsu changed by 5 yuan/ton, Lunan by - 15 yuan/ton, Henan by 10 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by - 20 yuan/ton [3]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot prices in different regions had the following changes: Shandong changed by 0 yuan/ton, Henan by 10 yuan/ton, Hebei by - 10 yuan/ton, Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by 0 yuan/ton, Shanxi by 0 yuan/ton, and Northeast China by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 68 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 19 yuan/ton, at 1768 yuan/ton [5]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price fluctuated within a narrow range. The bulls of natural rubber RU were optimistic due to seasonal expectations and demand expectations, believing that the weather and the current situation of rubber plantations in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, might limit rubber production growth, and the seasonality of rubber usually turns bullish in the second half of the year, with improved demand expectations in China. The bears were pessimistic due to weak demand, believing that the macro - economic outlook was uncertain, demand was in the seasonal off - season, and the expected postponement of EUDR and the supply benefits might be less than expected. The tire operating rate showed marginal deterioration. As of December 25, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 62.20%, 2.46 percentage points lower than the previous week and 0.02 percentage points lower than the same period last year, with slower shipments and higher inventory pressure. The operating rate of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 73.74%, 0.98 percentage points higher than the previous week but 5.05 percentage points lower than the same period last year, with slower shipping rhythms and higher inventory pressure. As of December 21, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 118.2 million tons, a 3 - million - ton increase from the previous month, a 2.5% increase; the total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 77.4 million tons, a 3.4% increase; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 40.8 million tons, a 1% increase; the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 50.92 (+1.5) million tons. In the spot market, the price of Thai standard mixed rubber was 14800 (+150) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1875 (+20) US dollars, STR20 mixed was 1875 (+20) US dollars, Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 8650 (+200) yuan, and North China butadiene rubber was 11050 (+50) yuan [9][10][11]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell by 41 yuan to 4764 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4480 (- 20) yuan/ton, the basis was - 284 (+11) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 131 (+3) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was reported at 2325 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 820 (0) yuan/ton, the price of ethylene was 745 (0) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 690 (- 13) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 78.6%, a 1.4% increase from the previous period; among them, the calcium carbide method was 78.4%, a 0.1% decrease, and the ethylene method was 79.3%, a 5% increase. The overall downstream operating rate was 44.5%, a 0.9% decrease. The in - factory inventory was 30.9 million tons (+0.3), and the social inventory was 106.3 million tons (+0.3) [14]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: In terms of fundamentals, the cost of pure benzene in East China was 5323 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27.5 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 5406 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27.5 yuan/ton; the pure benzene basis was - 83.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 29.5 yuan/ton. In the spot - futures market, the spot price of styrene was 6950 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 6739 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52 yuan/ton; the basis was 211 yuan/ton, an increase of 102 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was 142.87 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.25 yuan/ton; the profit of non - integrated EB plants was - 71.275 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.725 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the upstream operating rate was 70.7%, a 1.57% increase; the inventory at Jiangsu ports was 13.88 million tons, a decrease of 0.05 million tons. On the demand side, the weighted operating rate of the three S products was 42.24%, a 1.77% increase; the operating rate of PS was 59.40%, a 4.90% increase; the operating rate of EPS was 52.56%, a 0.76% increase; the operating rate of ABS was 69.40%, a 0.70% decrease [18]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: Fundamentally, the closing price of the main contract was 6449 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan/ton; the spot price was 6435 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton; the basis was - 14 yuan/ton, an increase of 58 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 84.2%, a 0.36% increase. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises was 37.07 million tons, a decrease of 8.79 million tons from the previous week, and the inventory of traders was 2.76 million tons, a decrease of 0.49 million tons from the previous week. The average downstream operating rate was 41.15%, a 0.68% decrease. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 47 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan decrease from the previous week [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: Fundamentally, the closing price of the main contract was 6330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton; the spot price was 6300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis was - 30 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 76.69%, a 0.16% decrease. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises was 49.07 million tons, a decrease of 4.26 million tons from the previous week; the inventory of traders was 17.72 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from the previous week; the port inventory was 6.63 million tons, a decrease of 0.24 million tons from the previous week. The average downstream operating rate was 52.76%, a 0.48% decrease. The LL - PP spread was 119 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan decrease from the previous week [23][24]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract fell by 50 yuan to 7210 yuan, the PX CFR price fell by 9 US dollars to 884 US dollars, and the basis was - 54 yuan (- 29) after conversion according to the central parity of the RMB. The 3 - 5 spread was - 2 yuan (+4). The operating rate of PX in China was 90.6%, a 2.4% increase; the operating rate in Asia was 80.9%, a 1.4% increase. Domestically, Fujia Dahua restarted and expanded its capacity. The operating rate of PTA was 78.1%, a 5.6% increase; Dushan Energy and Zhongtai restarted, and Weilian Chemical increased its production. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 43.3 million tons of PX to China in December, a 4.2 - million - ton increase from the same period last year. In terms of inventory, the inventory at the end of November was 402 million tons, a 5 - million - ton decrease from the previous month. In terms of valuation and cost, PXN was 357 US dollars (+2), South Korea's PX - MX was 146 US dollars (+3), and the naphtha crack spread was 90 US dollars (+1) [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell by 64 yuan to 5046 yuan, the East China spot price fell by 65 yuan to 5030 yuan, the basis was - 49 yuan (- 3), and the 5 - 9 spread was 90 yuan (- 10). The operating rate of PTA was 78.1%, a 5.6% increase; Dushan Energy and Zhongtai restarted, and Weilian Chemical increased its production. The downstream operating rate was 90.8%, a 0.4% increase; Hengyi's 55 - million - ton chemical fiber and China Resources' 30 - million - ton bottle - grade chip restarted, while Yisheng's 25 - million - ton bottle - grade chip, Hengyi's 55 - million - ton filament, and Sanfangxiang's 50 - million - ton bottle - grade chip were under maintenance. The terminal texturing operating rate decreased by 5% to 74%, and the loom operating rate decreased by 1% to 59%. In terms of inventory, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on December 26 was 205.5 million tons, a 5.2 - million - ton decrease from the previous month. In terms of valuation and cost, the spot processing fee of PTA decreased by 13 yuan to 336 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 31 yuan to 316 yuan [30]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell by 71 yuan to 3732 yuan, the East China spot price fell by 41 yuan to 3640 yuan, the basis was - 126 yuan (+15), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 90 yuan (+3). On the supply side, the operating rate of ethylene glycol was 73.7%, a 0.4% increase; among them, the operating rate of syngas - based production was 75.9%, a 1.4% decrease, and the operating rate of ethylene - based production was 72.5%, a 1.5% increase. Among the syngas - based plants, Tianye's plant resumed operation after an accidental shutdown, Huayi restarted, and Henan Coal Industry replaced the catalyst; among the petrochemical plants, Far East Union restarted; overseas, the plant of Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China, shut down. The downstream operating rate was 90.8%, a 0.4% increase

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Views - The overall sentiment for copper is that the upward trend may slow down due to factors such as squeezed downstream demand and inventory accumulation, despite strong support from supply - side factors. For aluminum, it is expected to continue to be range - bound with an upward bias. Lead is likely to be weak in the short - term, zinc is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in the medium - term and follow the non - ferrous sector strongly in the short - term. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market risk appetite. Nickel's short - term bottom may have appeared. Carbonate lithium is subject to high volatility and is recommended to be observed or lightly traded. Alumina is recommended to be observed, and short positions can be considered under certain conditions. Stainless steel may be advisable to go long at low prices. Cast aluminum alloy is expected to be range - bound with an upward bias [2][5][8][10][12][14][18][21][24][27] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Information**: After the domestic holiday, copper prices continued to be strong. LME copper 3M rose 5.03% to $13,087/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 102,650 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased, while domestic social and bonded - area inventories increased. The spot in Shanghai and Guangdong changed from discount to premium. The import loss of SHFE copper spot widened, and the refined - scrap copper price difference increased [1] - **Strategy View**: With a loose US financial market liquidity, mild domestic policy stimulus, and geopolitical factors, the sentiment is favorable. However, high prices are squeezing downstream demand, and there is inventory accumulation pressure. The upward trend of copper prices is expected to slow down. The reference range for SHFE copper main contract is 101,200 - 105,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $12,800 - 13,400/ton [2] Aluminum - **Market Information**: Both domestic and international aluminum prices accelerated their upward movement. LME aluminum rose 2.28% to $3,090/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 24,165 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions increased significantly, and futures warehouse receipts increased. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories increased, and the processing fee of aluminum rods decreased. The spot in the East China region was at a discount to futures, and LME aluminum inventory decreased [4] - **Strategy View**: The high prices of precious metals and copper are expected to drive up aluminum prices. Although high aluminum prices suppress downstream production, low overseas inventory and supply - side disturbances support the price. Aluminum prices are expected to continue to be range - bound with an upward bias. The reference range for SHFE aluminum main contract is 23,700 - 24,400 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $3,050 - 3,140/ton [5] Lead - **Market Information**: SHFE lead index rose 0.27% to 17,403 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose to $2,020/ton. The refined - scrap lead price difference was 150 yuan/ton. Domestic social lead inventory increased, and LME lead inventory and注销仓单 were recorded [7] - **Strategy View**: The visible lead ore inventory increased, the primary lead production rate remained high, and the recycled lead production rate slightly increased. Downstream battery enterprises' production rate decreased marginally, and domestic lead inventory stopped falling. The lead price is near the upper limit of the oscillation range, and it is expected to be weak in the short - term [8] Zinc - **Market Information**: SHFE zinc index rose 2.34% to 23,849 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose to $3,172.5/ton. The zinc ingot social inventory increased. The zinc ore visible inventory decreased, and the zinc concentrate TC decreased again but at a slower pace [9] - **Strategy View**: The zinc ore visible inventory decreased, and zinc smelting profit stabilized. Domestic zinc inventory decreased, and the SHFE - LME ratio increased. After the winter stockpiling, the domestic zinc ore supply may be more abundant. The zinc price is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in the medium - term and follow the non - ferrous sector strongly in the short - term [10] Tin - **Market Information**: On January 5, 2026, SHFE tin main contract closed at 334,370 yuan/ton, up 3.55%. The smelting plants in Yunnan and Jiangxi showed different situations in production. The downstream consumer electronics demand was in the off - season, but the new - energy vehicle and AI server orders supported the tin solder enterprises' production rate. The spot market had weak purchasing willingness, and the tin inventory increased for three consecutive weeks [11] - **Strategy View**: Although the current tin market has weak demand and supply improvement expectations, the low downstream inventory limits the bargaining power. The price is expected to fluctuate with market risk appetite. It is recommended to observe. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is $39,000 - 43,000/ton [12] Nickel - **Market Information**: On January 5, nickel prices oscillated. SHFE nickel main contract closed at 134,100 yuan/ton, up 0.94%. The spot premiums were stable, and the nickel ore prices were stable. The nickel iron price continued to rise [13] - **Strategy View**: The nickel surplus pressure is still large, but due to Indonesia's policies, the short - term bottom of nickel prices may have appeared. It is recommended to observe. The reference range for SHFE nickel is 110,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $13,000 - 16,500/ton [14] Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The Five - Mineral Steel Union's carbonate lithium spot index rose, and the LC2605 contract price also increased. The battery - grade carbonate lithium premium was - 1,750 yuan [17] - **Strategy View**: On Monday, carbonate lithium opened and closed higher, and the total positions increased. The domestic carbonate lithium inventory decreased, and the market has optimistic expectations for the supply - demand pattern in 2026. However, the price transmission to the end - users is incomplete. It is recommended to observe or lightly trade. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's carbonate lithium 2605 contract is 125,500 - 134,500 yuan/ton [18] Alumina - **Market Information**: On January 5, 2026, the alumina index fell 0.22% to 2,749 yuan/ton. The positions increased, and the basis showed that the Shandong spot was at a discount to the main contract. The overseas price fell, and the import loss was reported. The futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the ore prices were stable [20] - **Strategy View**: After the rainy season, the ore supply from Guinea is expected to increase, and the alumina smelting capacity is in surplus. Although there are expectations of supply - side policies, the price rebound faces difficulties. It is recommended to observe, and short positions can be considered if there is no actual production cut. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2602 is 2,400 - 2,900 yuan/ton [21] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Monday, the stainless steel main contract closed at 13,075 yuan/ton, down 0.38%. The positions increased. The spot prices in different markets showed different trends, and the raw material prices such as nickel and chromium were stable or increased. The futures inventory decreased, and the social inventory decreased [23] - **Strategy View**: In late December, the stainless steel price was driven up by the nickel price. The supply from steel mills was limited, and the inventory decreased. The nickel iron price was firm, but the terminal demand was weak. If the nickel ore supply quota is tightened, the price may rise further. It is advisable to go long at low prices and closely monitor policy implementation [24] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The cast aluminum alloy price accelerated its upward movement. The AD2603 contract closed up 3.04% to 22,520 yuan/ton. The positions and trading volume increased, and the warehouse receipts slightly increased. The domestic mainstream ADC12 price increased, and the inventory decreased slightly [26] - **Strategy View**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy is strong, and there are supply - side disturbances. The price is expected to be range - bound with an upward bias [27]

专题报告 2026-01-06 纯碱：往期阿拉善产能投产对比 陈逸（联系人） 黑色研究员 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375135 cheny40@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 黑色研究员 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-233751212 langzj@wkqh.cn 报告要点： 2025 年底，阿拉善天然碱二期项目已顺利完成试车并进入投料阶段，这标志着 2026 年将成为 纯碱行业供给再次迎来显著扩张的关键一年。回顾 2023 年阿拉善天然碱一期项目投产时的市 场环境，我们得以通过对比历史行业格局与供需演变路径，分析新一轮产能释放可能带来的市 场影响。 黑色建材研究 | 纯碱 往期阿拉善产能投产对比 2023 年，阿拉善一期项目按规划应投产 4 条产线，合计产能 500 万吨。年内实际有 3 条产线顺利投 产，贡献产能 400 万吨。同时，另有 300 万吨联碱法产能投入运营，全年累计新增产能达 700 万吨， 使 2023 年成为纯碱产能快速扩张的关键年份。上半年，受新增产能释放预期与下游需求偏弱的双 重影响，纯碱价格承压下行，最大跌幅接近 50%。进入 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall commodity market sentiment has significantly declined, and the prices of finished steel products continue to fluctuate within the bottom range. The steel prices are expected to continue operating within the bottom range, and the winter storage is unlikely to form a concentrated replenishment market. Attention should be paid to the "dual - carbon" policies and their impact on the supply - demand pattern of the steel industry [2] - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate. The supply of iron ore has decreased in the short term, the demand has slightly recovered, and the port inventory is at a high level. Attention should be paid to overseas emergencies [5] - The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon may be affected by the overall market sentiment and cost factors. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is basically balanced [9][10] - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate. Its fundamentals are weak, and it mainly relies on silicon enterprises' production cuts to support prices. Attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [13][14] - The price of polysilicon is expected to fluctuate. The demand is weak, the supply is still loose, and the inventory accumulation pressure exists. Attention should be paid to the implementation of enterprises' quota sales and the terminal demand feedback [16] - The price of glass may rise slightly, but the market lacks substantial demand and policy support. The price upward space is estimated to be between 1100 - 1150 yuan/ton [19] - The price of soda ash is expected to decline. The supply is in excess, and it is recommended to short at a high price in the range of 1200 - 1250 yuan/ton [21][22] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3104 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.57%) from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased by 10 yuan/ton [1] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3248 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton (-0.67%) from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [1] Strategy Views - The fundamentals of rebar show a slight increase in production, a decline in apparent demand, and continuous inventory reduction. For hot - rolled coils, production has increased significantly, apparent demand has strengthened slightly, and inventory has continued to decline [2] - The overall market is in a narrow - range shock, the terminal demand recovery is slow, and the hot - rolled coil inventory is under pressure. The steel price is expected to continue operating in the bottom range [2] Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract (I2605) of iron ore closed at 797.00 yuan/ton, up 0.95% (+7.50). The position increased by 25428 hands to 61.88 million hands. The weighted position was 94.83 million hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 806 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 59.59 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.96% [4] Strategy Views - Supply: The year - end shipping rush of mines has ended, and the overseas iron ore shipping volume has decreased. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil has declined, and the shipping from non - mainstream countries has also decreased. The near - end arrival volume has increased [5] - Demand: The daily average molten iron output has slightly increased, some blast furnaces have resumed production, and the profitability of steel mills has slightly improved [5] - Inventory: The port inventory has continued to accumulate, reaching a high level in the same period. The steel mill's imported ore inventory has increased but is still at a low level in the past five years [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On January 5, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM603) closed down 0.78% at 5866 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5730 yuan/ton, with a premium of 46 yuan/ton over the futures [8] - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed down 0.85% at 5624 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, with a premium of 126 yuan/ton over the futures [8] Strategy Views - Macro: After a series of important macro - events, the market has shown a positive trend, but attention should be paid to the short - term impact of the "leading" products on the market sentiment [9] - Fundamentals: The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, but most factors have been reflected in the price. The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is basically balanced, with marginal improvement [10] - Key factors: The market direction of the black sector and cost - push factors of manganese ore and supply - contraction factors of ferrosilicon are the main contradictions. Attention should be paid to the situation of manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [10] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main contract (SI2605) of industrial silicon closed at 8730 yuan/ton, down 1.47% (-130). The weighted contract position decreased by 3538 hands to 342532 hands. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China remained unchanged, with basis of 470 yuan/ton and 120 yuan/ton respectively [12] - The main contract (PS2605) of polysilicon closed at 58645 yuan/ton, up 1.25% (+725). The weighted contract position decreased by 6544 hands to 129961 hands. The spot prices of N - type silicon increased, with a basis of - 5395 yuan/ton [15] Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: The production in December was stable, the demand in January is weak, and it may continue to accumulate inventory. The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [13][14] - Polysilicon: The downstream production in January has continued to decline, the supply is still loose, and there is inventory accumulation pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the implementation of quota sales and terminal demand feedback [16] Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The main contract of glass closed at 1081 yuan/ton on Monday, down 0.55% (-6). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 3.00%. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 413 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 848 short positions [18] - The main contract of soda ash closed at 1177 yuan/ton on Monday, down 2.65% (-32). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 3.00%. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 1719 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 1109 short positions [20] Strategy Views - Glass: In December, the supply decreased, the demand declined in winter, and the market lacked substantial support. The price may rise slightly, with the upward space around 1100 - 1150 yuan/ton [19] - Soda Ash: In December, the domestic market was narrowly sorted, the supply was in excess, and the downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand. It is recommended to short at a high price in the range of 1200 - 1250 yuan/ton [21][22]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, at the beginning of the year, institutional allocation funds are expected to flow back into the market, and with the unchanged policy support for the capital market, the medium - to long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [2][3]. - For treasury bonds, the improvement of market expectations for the economy may put pressure on the bond market. Although the central bank maintains an attitude of caring for funds, the bond market is expected to be weak and volatile in the first quarter, mainly affected by the spring rally in the stock market, government bond supply, and interest - rate cut expectations [4][6]. - For precious metals, there may be a short - term significant correction in January, but it does not mean the end of the upward cycle of gold and silver. In the long term, there are expectations of loose fiscal and monetary policies [7][8]. - For non - ferrous metals, most non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost, and market sentiment, with different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to slow down in their upward trend; aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong; zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the medium term and strong in the short term; lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term; nickel prices may have bottomed out in the short term; tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment; and the prices of some non - ferrous metal products such as stainless steel and casting aluminum alloy also have their own trends [10][11][13] [16][17][18]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the bottom range; iron ore prices are expected to oscillate, with upside space limited by high inventory and supply expectations and downside supported by restocking expectations; glass prices may have some upward potential; and the supply - surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed fundamentally [32][33][35]. - For energy chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be observed; the valuation of heavy - oil products in crude oil is expected to increase; methanol is considered to have the feasibility of going long on dips; urea is recommended to take profits on rallies; and the trends of pure benzene, styrene, and other products are also affected by factors such as cost, supply, and demand [49][50][55]. - For agricultural products, the short - term logic of rising pig prices is strong, but the medium - term support may collapse; egg prices have limited upside and downside space; the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate; the current fundamentals of oils and fats are weak, but the medium - and long - term expectations are optimistic; sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest; and cotton prices are recommended to go long on dips after a correction [78][79][83]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Information**: The CSRC will strengthen the coordination of administrative, criminal, and civil actions to combat financial fraud. Goldman Sachs recommends overweighting Chinese stocks, expecting a 15% - 20% annual increase in 2026 and 2027. The basis ratios of stock - index futures are provided [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: At the beginning of the year, institutional allocation funds are expected to flow back into the market, and with policy support, the medium - to long - term strategy is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of Treasury bond futures contracts have different changes. The National Development and Reform Commission has introduced policies for Yangtze River protection projects. The central bank conducted 135 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 4688 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market. Although the central bank maintains an attitude of caring for funds, the bond market is expected to be weak and volatile in the first quarter, mainly affected by the spring rally in the stock market, government bond supply, and interest - rate cut expectations [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver, and COMEX gold and silver have increased. Weak US manufacturing PMI data and geopolitical issues have strengthened the expectations of the Fed's loose monetary policy, leading to a short - term increase in precious - metal prices [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There may be a short - term significant correction in January, but it does not mean the end of the upward cycle of gold and silver. In the long term, there are expectations of loose fiscal and monetary policies [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The price of LME copper has reached 13,000 US dollars for the first time. The price of domestic copper has continued to be strong, with changes in inventory and basis [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The upward trend of copper prices is expected to slow down, with support from supply - side factors and pressure from demand - side factors [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The prices of domestic and international aluminum have accelerated their upward movement, with changes in inventory and basis [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong, affected by factors such as supply - side disturbances and the high prices of precious metals and copper [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The prices of zinc futures and spot have changed, with changes in inventory and basis [14][15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the medium term and strong in the short term, affected by factors such as inventory and supply - demand relationships [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: The prices of lead futures and spot have changed, with changes in inventory and basis [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term, affected by factors such as inventory and market sentiment [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The price of nickel has oscillated, with changes in spot premiums and cost factors [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term bottom of nickel prices may have appeared, and it is recommended to observe in the short term [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: The price of tin has increased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [20][21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment, and it is recommended to observe [22]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The price of carbonate lithium has increased, with changes in futures prices and inventory [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals of carbonate lithium are expected to improve, but there are concerns about demand if prices remain high. It is recommended to observe or take a light - position attempt [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina has decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to observe. If there is no actual production - reduction action, short positions can be considered on rallies [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The price of stainless steel has decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to consider going long on dips and pay attention to the implementation of policies [28]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy has accelerated its upward movement, with changes in inventory and basis [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to be volatile and strong, affected by cost and supply - side factors [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the bottom range, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and macro - policies [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The price of iron ore has increased, with changes in inventory and basis [34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate, with upside space limited by high inventory and supply expectations and downside supported by restocking expectations [35]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The price of glass has decreased, and the price of soda ash has decreased. There are changes in inventory and basis [36][38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Glass prices may have some upward potential, and the supply - surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed fundamentally [37][38]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon have decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [39]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future trends of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are affected by factors such as market sentiment, cost, and supply - side disturbances [41][42]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon has decreased, and the price of polysilicon has increased, with changes in inventory and basis [43][46]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate, and polysilicon prices are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and market sentiment [44][47]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The price of rubber has oscillated and increased, with different views from bulls and bears [49][50]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to observe and partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [53]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The price of crude oil has decreased, and the prices of refined - oil products have also changed, with changes in inventory [54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The valuation of heavy - oil products is expected to increase [55]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol have changed [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Methanol is considered to have the feasibility of going long on dips [57]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot and futures prices of urea have changed, with a certain basis [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to take profits on rallies [59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene have changed, with changes in cost, supply, demand, and basis [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is considered that the non - integrated profit of styrene has room for upward repair, and it is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [61]. PVC - **Market Information**: The price of PVC has decreased, with changes in cost, supply, demand, and inventory [62][63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to short on rallies before significant production cuts in the industry [64]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene glycol has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol needs to be improved through increased production cuts, and the valuation may need to be compressed in the medium term [66]. PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage after short - term destocking. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of correction in the short term and the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [69]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of para - xylene has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PX is expected to maintain a small inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of correction in the short term and the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [71]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of PE has changed, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [73]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of PP has changed, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [74][75]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - surplus pattern of PP may change in the first quarter of next year, and the price may bottom out [76]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The prices of live pigs in different regions have changed, with different supply and demand situations in the north and south [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term logic of rising pig prices is strong, but the medium - term support may collapse. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the support of far - month contracts [79]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The prices of eggs have changed, with stable supply and different digestion speeds in the terminal market [80]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Egg prices have limited upside and downside space. It is recommended to short on rallies [81][82]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures have changed, with changes in spot prices and inventory [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate, affected by factors such as import costs and inventory [84]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The prices of oils and fats futures have decreased, with changes in spot prices and inventory [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current fundamentals of oils and fats are weak, but the medium - and long - term expectations are optimistic. The prices are not far from the bottom range [87][88]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The price of sugar futures has increased, with changes in spot prices and production data in different regions [89][90]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest, and the short - term downside space of domestic sugar prices is limited [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The price of cotton futures has changed, with changes in spot prices, supply, demand, and inventory [92]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on cotton after a correction, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and policy expectations [93].

农产品早报 2026-01-06 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 周一郑州白糖期货价格低开后反弹，郑糖 5 月合约收盘价报 5257 元/吨，较前一交易日上涨 6 元/吨，或 0.11%。现货方面，广西制糖集团新糖报价 5280-5360 元/吨，报价较上个交易日下跌 10-20 元/吨；云南 制糖集团新糖报价 5150-5190 元/吨，报价较上个交易日下跌 10-20 元/吨；加工糖厂主流报价区间 5760-5800 元/吨，报价较上个交易日下跌 0-10 元/吨。广西现货-郑糖主力合约基差 23 元/吨。 杨泽元 软商品、油脂油料研究员 据印度全国合作糖厂联合会有限公司(NFCSF)发布的数据显示，截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日，印度糖厂已压 榨甘蔗 1.33 亿吨，同比增加 0.23 亿吨。本榨季截至目前共有 499 家糖厂开榨。截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日 食糖产量达 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The weak US manufacturing PMI data released last night strengthened the market's expectation of the Fed's subsequent loose monetary policy. Coupled with the overseas geopolitical issues further impacting the US dollar credit system, the prices of gold and silver strengthened in the short - term. The US December ISM manufacturing PMI was 47.9, lower than the expected 48.3 and the previous value of 48.2 [1]. - The CME has raised the margin level for precious metal trading twice in the week of December 31. Recalling the sharp rise in silver prices in 2011, the CME raised the margin for precious metal trading six times (starting from March 2011), causing the silver price to drop significantly after reaching a historical high of $49.7 per ounce. Precious metals are likely to face suppression from the Fed's "inactivity" in January next year and experience a short - term significant correction, but this does not mean the end of the current upward cycle of gold and silver. [2] - The Trump administration still has the motivation to further loosen fiscal policy under the pressure of the mid - term elections. The Fed will eventually enter a new and more aggressive interest - rate cut cycle after Powell officially steps down. However, in the short term, the current prices of gold and silver have fully reflected the expectations of monetary and fiscal policies. It is recommended to remain on the sidelines in the context of large fluctuations and not to open new long or short positions. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 940 - 1024 yuan/gram, and that for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 15340 - 19998 yuan/kilogram [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai gold rose 0.93% to 1001.60 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 3.17% to 18745.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at $4459.70 per ounce, and COMEX silver was reported at $76.51 per ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.17%, and the US dollar index was reported at 98.33 [1]. - The spot silver - related data has rebounded. The one - month silver lease rate has risen to 10.25%. The EFP rate shows that the price of London silver has strengthened relative to the price of New York silver again, and the import premium of silver in India has also increased significantly [1]. 3.2 Key Data of Gold and Silver - **Gold**: The closing price of the active COMEX gold contract was $4459.70 per ounce, up 2.71% from the previous day, with a historical percentile of 98.01% in the past year. The trading volume was 207,100 lots, up 38.61%. The CFTC - reported open interest was 481,900 lots, down 2.08%. The inventory was 1132 tons, unchanged. The closing price of LBMA gold was $4456.40 per ounce, up 2.38%. The closing price of the active SHFE gold contract was 995.00 yuan/gram, up 1.78%. The trading volume was 191,000 lots, down 56.18%. The open interest was 312,800 lots, down 0.54%. The inventory was 97.70 tons, unchanged. The settled funds were 49.791 billion yuan, up 1.24%. The closing price of AuT + D was 992.63 yuan/gram, up 1.87%. The trading volume was 44.01 tons, down 35.00%. The open interest was 208.54 tons, down 7.83% [4][5]. - **Silver**: The closing price of the active COMEX silver contract was $76.51 per ounce, up 5.87%, with a historical percentile of 99.18% in the past year. The CFTC - reported open interest was 157,400 lots, up 1.08%. The inventory was 13,982 tons, down 0.06%. The closing price of LBMA silver was $75.07 per ounce, up 1.15%. The closing price of the active SHFE silver contract was 18,247.00 yuan/kilogram, up 6.87%. The trading volume was 1,079,300 lots, down 72.20%. The open interest was 638,400 lots, down 0.39%. The inventory was 669.55 tons, down 3.19%. The settled funds were 31.451 billion yuan, up 6.45%. The closing price of AgT + D was 18,319.00 yuan/kilogram, up 7.39%. The trading volume was 657.43 tons, down 9.74%. The open interest was 2,941.532 tons, up 0.35% [4][5]. 3.3 Price and Volume Charts - There are multiple charts showing the relationship between the price and volume of COMEX gold and silver, Shanghai gold and silver, as well as the relationship between gold and silver prices and other factors such as the US dollar index, real interest rates, and the net long positions of managed funds [7][10][11][23][25][27][41]. 3.4 Price Structure and Spread - The report provides information on the near - far month price structure of COMEX gold and silver, Shanghai gold and silver, as well as the internal and external price spreads of gold and silver [20][21][29][36][48]. For example, on January 5, 2026, the SHFE - COMEX spread of gold was - 7.80 yuan/gram, and that of silver was 1320.56 yuan/kilogram [48].