1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical sector is divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. For each sector, options strategies and suggestions are provided for selected varieties. Strategies mainly involve constructing option combination strategies with sellers as the main focus, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various energy and chemical futures contracts are presented, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), methanol, etc. For example, the latest price of the crude oil SC2510 contract is 484, with a decrease of 5 and a decline rate of -0.98% [3] 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR of various energy and chemical options are provided, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market. For example, the volume PCR of crude oil options is 0.62, with a change of -0.04, and the open interest PCR is 0.75, with a change of 0.03 [4] 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of various energy and chemical options are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of crude oil options is 600, and the support level is 490 [5] 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of various energy and chemical options is presented, including at-the-money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility. For example, the at-the-money implied volatility of crude oil options is 27.47, and the weighted implied volatility is 30.44, with a change of 0.21 [6] 3.5 Option Strategies and Suggestions 3.5.1 Energy Options - **Crude Oil**: The fundamental situation of crude oil involves OPEC+ production adjustments and Russian production cuts. The market shows a short - term upward受阻 and downward - trending pattern. Option strategies include constructing a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7] - **LPG**: The supply of LPG is abundant, and the market shows a short - term bearish trend. Option strategies include constructing a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9] 3.5.2 Alcohol Options - **Methanol**: The port inventory of methanol is increasing, and the market shows a weak upward - pressured trend. Option strategies include constructing a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory of ethylene glycol is accumulating, and the market shows a wide - range weak - oscillating pattern. Option strategies include constructing a short - volatility strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] 3.5.3 Polyolefin Options - **Polypropylene**: The inventory situation of polypropylene shows different trends in production enterprises and traders. The market shows a weak upward - pressured trend. Option strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] 3.5.4 Rubber Options - **Rubber**: The operating rates of tires show different trends. The market shows a short - term weak upward - pressured trend. Option strategies include constructing a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy [11] 3.5.5 Polyester Options - **PTA**: The overall social inventory of PTA is increasing, and the market shows a weak - oscillating pattern. Option strategies include constructing a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy [12] 3.5.6 Alkali Options - **Caustic Soda**: The capacity utilization rate of caustic soda shows different trends in different regions. The market shows a short - term bullish rebound pattern. Option strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13] - **Soda Ash**: The inventory of soda ash is increasing, and the market shows an oscillating pattern with support at the bottom. Option strategies include constructing a short - volatility combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13] 3.5.7 Urea Options - The port inventory of urea is decreasing, while the enterprise inventory is increasing. The market shows a low - level oscillating pattern. Option strategies include constructing a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the metal options market, covering various metals such as non - ferrous metals, precious metals, and black metals. It analyzes the fundamentals, market trends, and option factors of each metal, and gives corresponding option strategies and suggestions [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various metal futures contracts, including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc [3] 3.2 Option Factors 3.2.1 Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume PCR and open interest PCR of different metal options are presented, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market [4] 3.2.2 Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure points, support points, maximum call option open interest, and maximum put option open interest of different metal options are provided, which are used to analyze the pressure and support levels of the underlying assets [5] 3.2.3 Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different metal options is presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, etc [6] 3.3 Strategy and Suggestions 3.3.1 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper Options**: Build a short - volatility seller option portfolio strategy for volatility strategies and a spot hedging strategy for spot long - position hedging [7] - **Aluminum/Alumina Options**: Construct a neutral short - call + short - put option portfolio strategy for volatility strategies and a spot collar strategy for spot long - position hedging [9] - **Zinc/Lead Options**: Build a neutral short - call + short - put option portfolio strategy for volatility strategies and a spot collar strategy for spot long - position hedging [9] - **Nickel Options**: Construct a short - bearish call + short - put option portfolio strategy for volatility strategies and a spot long - position hedging strategy [10] - **Tin Options**: Build a short - volatility strategy for volatility strategies and a spot collar strategy for spot long - position hedging [10] - **Lithium Carbonate Options**: Construct a short - bullish call + short - put option portfolio strategy for volatility strategies and a spot long - position hedging strategy [11] 3.3.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver Options**: Build a neutral short - volatility option seller portfolio strategy for volatility strategies and a spot hedging strategy for spot long - position hedging [12] 3.3.3 Black Metals - **Rebar Options**: Build a neutral short - call + short - put option portfolio strategy for volatility strategies and a spot covered - call strategy for spot long - position hedging [13] - **Iron Ore Options**: Build a neutral short - call + short - put option portfolio strategy for volatility strategies and a long - position collar strategy for spot long - position hedging [13] - **Ferroalloy Options**: Build a short - volatility strategy for volatility strategies and no spot hedging strategy [14] - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Options**: Build a short - volatility short - call + short - put option portfolio strategy for volatility strategies and a spot long - position hedging strategy [14] - **Glass Options**: Build a short - volatility short - call + short - put option portfolio strategy for volatility strategies and a long - position collar strategy for spot long - position hedging [15]

1. Overall Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the non - ferrous metals industry. 2. Core Views - The overall sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market is complex, with macro - factors and industry fundamentals jointly influencing metal prices. Each metal has its own supply - demand characteristics and price trends. - Copper prices may consolidate and await further macro - driven factors. Aluminum prices may experience a short - term oscillatory correction. Cast aluminum alloy prices face upward resistance. Lead prices are expected to be weak. Zinc prices have a large downward risk. Tin prices are expected to oscillate. Nickel prices have callback pressure. Lithium carbonate prices have uncertainties. Alumina prices are in an over - capacity situation. Stainless steel prices will continue to consolidate in the short term. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price Performance**: Last week, LME copper slightly declined by 0.08% to $9760/ton, and SHFE copper's main contract closed at 79080 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 0.7 tons. SHFE inventory increased by 0.4 to 8.6 tons, LME inventory slightly increased to 15.6 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 0.3 to 24.2 tons. Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 0.5 tons [1]. - **Market Outlook**: Copper prices may consolidate and wait for further macro - driven factors. This week, the reference range for SHFE copper's main contract is 77800 - 80200 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 9500 - 9950 dollars/ton [1]. Aluminum - **Price Performance**: SHFE aluminum's main contract rose 0.41% last week, while LME aluminum fell 0.46% to $2603/ton [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: Domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased by 2.4 tons to 58.8 tons, bonded area inventory decreased by 0.7 to 10.5 tons, and aluminum rod social inventory decreased by 0.4 to 13.9 tons. LME aluminum inventory increased by 1.0 to 48.0 tons [3]. - **Market Outlook**: Aluminum prices may experience a short - term oscillatory correction. This week, the reference range for the domestic main contract is 20200 - 20900 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2520 - 2640 dollars/ton [3]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Performance**: The futures price of cast aluminum alloy oscillated upward, with the AD2511 contract rising 0.27% to 20165 yuan/ton [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: Domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingot social inventory increased by 0.1 to 4.9 tons, and the total of social and factory inventory slightly increased [5]. - **Market Outlook**: Cast aluminum alloy prices face upward resistance due to the large difference between futures and spot prices, despite strong cost support [5]. Lead - **Price Performance**: SHFE lead index rose 0.43% to 16849 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose $4 to $1987.5/ton [7]. - **Inventory Changes**: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 6.68 tons, SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 6.18 tons, and LME lead ingot inventory was 26.17 tons [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Lead prices are expected to be weak due to the weak supply - demand situation in the industry [7]. Zinc - **Price Performance**: SHFE zinc index rose 0.15% to 22521 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose $18.5 to $2835.5/ton [8]. - **Inventory Changes**: Domestic social inventory continued to increase to 12.92 tons, SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 2 tons, and LME zinc ingot inventory was 7.75 tons [9]. - **Market Outlook**: Zinc prices have a large downward risk due to the continued over - supply situation in the medium - term industry [9]. Tin - **Price Performance**: On August 15, 2025, SHFE tin's main contract closed at 266820 yuan/ton, down 0.22% [10]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE registered warehouse receipts increased by 4 tons to 7426 tons, and LME inventory decreased by 175 tons to 1655 tons. As of August 15, the national main market tin ingot social inventory was 10392 tons, an increase of 114 tons from the previous Friday [10]. - **Market Outlook**: Tin prices are expected to oscillate. The short - term reference range for domestic tin prices is 250000 - 275000 yuan/ton, and for LME tin prices is 31000 - 34000 dollars/ton [10]. Nickel - **Price Performance**: On Friday, SHFE nickel's main contract closed at 120600 yuan/ton, down 0.50% [11]. - **Market Outlook**: Nickel prices have callback pressure. The reference range for SHFE nickel's main contract is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [12]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Performance**: On August 15, the MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate was 82832 yuan, up 18.62% for the week. The LC2511 contract closed at 86900 yuan, up 1.88% from the previous day and 12.92% for the week [14]. - **Market Outlook**: Lithium carbonate prices have uncertainties. The reference range for the main contract on the GZEE is 84300 - 90000 yuan/ton [14]. Alumina - **Price Performance**: On August 15, the alumina index fell 0.84% to 3195 yuan/ton [16]. - **Inventory Changes**: Futures warehouse receipts increased by 1.41 tons to 6.58 tons [16]. - **Market Outlook**: Alumina prices are in an over - capacity situation. It is recommended to short at high prices. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3000 - 3400 yuan/ton [16]. Stainless Steel - **Price Performance**: Stainless steel futures prices faced resistance in rising, and some product prices slightly declined [18]. - **Inventory Changes**: Social inventory decreased to 107.89 tons, a 2.48% decrease from the previous period, and 300 - series inventory decreased by 1.99% to 64.45 tons [18]. - **Market Outlook**: The stainless steel market may continue to consolidate in the short term [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US PPI data in July significantly exceeded expectations, with the year - on - year PPI at 3.3%, the month - on - month PPI at 0.9%, and the month - on - month import price index at 0.4%. Fed officials have different views on inflation, and the Trump administration's selection of the new Fed chair has influenced their statements [2]. - Fed Chair Powell will speak at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Symposium on August 22. The market expects a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in the September FOMC meeting with a probability of 92.1%, and also prices in another rate cut in October. The fourth quarter will be the time to announce the new Fed chair, which may further boost the rate - cut expectation. It is recommended to wait for Powell's statement. If it is dovish, consider going long on gold and silver. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 765 - 794 yuan/gram, and for Shanghai Silver is 9045 - 9526 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - On August 18, Shanghai Gold fell 0.01% to 775.08 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver rose 0.10% to 9217.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX Gold fell 0.04% to 3381.70 dollars/ounce, COMEX Silver fell 0.13% to 38.02 dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.33%, and the US dollar index was 97.85 [2]. - For other market data on August 18, such as Au(T + D), London Gold, SPDR Gold ETF holdings, etc., specific closing prices, changes, and percentage changes are provided [4]. 3.2 Gold and Silver Key Data Summary - For gold on August 15, COMEX Gold's closing price, trading volume, open interest, and inventory had different changes compared to the previous day, with the closing price down 0.02%, trading volume down 28.99%, open interest down 0.78%, and inventory down 0.02%. Similar data for other gold - related indicators like LBMA Gold, SHFE Gold, and Au(T + D) are also presented [6]. - For silver on August 15, COMEX Silver's closing price, open interest, and inventory had changes, with the closing price down 0.04%, open interest down 3.00%, and inventory up 0.11%. Similar data for other silver - related indicators like LBMA Silver, SHFE Silver, and Ag(T + D) are also provided [6]. 3.3 Charts and Their Information - Multiple charts show the relationships between gold and silver prices and various factors such as the US dollar index, real interest rates, trading volume, open interest, and the near - far month structure. For example, there are charts of COMEX Gold price vs. the US dollar index, COMEX Gold price vs. real interest rates, etc. [11][12] - There are also charts showing the near - far month structures of COMEX Gold, London Gold - COMEX Gold, Shanghai Gold, and related spreads, as well as similar charts for silver [20][21][37][38] - Charts about the net long positions of managed funds in COMEX Gold and Silver and their prices are presented [40] - Charts of the total holdings of Gold ETFs and Silver ETFs are provided [47] - Charts of the internal - external spreads of gold and silver, including their MA5 and seasonal patterns, are shown [50][51][57]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - As the Politburo meeting concludes and the sentiment related to "anti - involution" cools down, the market sentiment becomes rational, and the futures price trend weakens. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively repaired, the steel price may not maintain the current level, and the futures price may gradually return to the supply - demand logic. It is recommended to continuously monitor the recovery progress of terminal actual demand and the support of the cost side for the finished product price [3]. - In the short term, the iron ore price may be slightly adjusted. Attention should be paid to whether the contradiction between high hot metal production and terminal demand will further intensify. Also, follow - up actions of blast furnace enterprises regarding the production suspension of Tangshan independent rolling enterprises need to be monitored [6]. - In the short - term market environment controlled by emotions, it is not recommended for speculative funds to participate excessively, and it is advisable to wait and see. Hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities according to their own situations but should control margin (cash flow) safety [10]. - It is expected that the industrial silicon price will fluctuate weakly, with support at 8000 yuan/ton. The polysilicon price is expected to fluctuate widely, with support levels at 47000 and 44000 yuan/ton respectively [14][16]. - In the short term, it is expected that glass and soda ash will fluctuate. In the long term, glass prices will fluctuate with macro - sentiment, and soda ash prices are expected to gradually increase in the price center, but their upward space is limited [18][19]. Summary by Category Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3188 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (- 0.03%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 119412 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10357 tons. The main contract position was 1.617947 million lots, a month - on - month decrease of 18597 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3439 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.203%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 78386 tons, with no month - on - month change. The main contract position was 1.255562 million lots, a month - on - month decrease of 36269 lots [2]. - **Market Situation**: The export volume declined slightly this week, and the overall export remained weak. Rebar demand decreased significantly this week, production was basically the same as last week, and the inventory accumulation speed increased. Hot - rolled coil demand recovered significantly, production was basically the same as last week, and the inventory accumulation speed slowed down. Currently, both rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories are on the rise marginally, steel mill profits are good, and production remains high, but the demand side's carrying capacity is obviously insufficient [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 776.00 yuan/ton, with a change of + 0.13% (+ 1.00), and the position changed by - 4631 lots to 447,300 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 895,300 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 772 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.22 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.39% [5]. - **Market Situation**: The overseas iron ore shipment volume and arrival volume both decreased in the latest period. The daily average hot metal production increased by 0.34 tons to 240.66 tons. Port inventories increased slightly, and the increase in steel mill imported ore inventories was more obvious. The apparent demand for the five major steel products continued to weaken, and the decline in rebar consumption data was significant [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position Data**: On August 15, the main manganese silicon contract (SM509) fluctuated weakly, closing down 0.40% at 6026 yuan/ton. The main ferrosilicon contract (SF509) closed up 0.17% at 5754 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market Situation**: The market for "anti - involution" trading still disturbs the market, and relevant emotional disturbances will continue to affect the market. The over - supply situation of manganese silicon has not changed, and its production has shown an upward trend recently. It is expected that in the future, the demand for ferrosilicon, manganese silicon, or the entire black sector will likely weaken marginally [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Position Data**: The main industrial silicon contract (SI2511) closed at 8805 yuan/ton, up 1.50% (+ 130). The weighted contract position changed by - 3135 lots to 531,988 lots. The main polysilicon contract (PS2511) closed at 52740 yuan/ton, up 4.58% (+ 2310). The weighted contract position changed by + 12752 lots to 322,861 lots [13][15]. - **Market Situation**: The over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient effective demand of industrial silicon have not fundamentally changed. The production of polysilicon has increased week - on - week, and inventory depletion is limited. The polysilicon market is in a weak supply - demand situation [14][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Inventory Data**: The spot price of glass in Shahe was 1164 yuan, unchanged from the previous day, and in Central China, it was 1090 yuan, down 30 yuan from the previous day. As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.426 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month increase of 1.579 million heavy boxes (+ 2.55%), and a year - on - year decrease of 5.94%. The spot price of soda ash was 1280 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8938 million tons, an increase of 17,600 tons from Monday, with a growth rate of 0.94% [18][19]. - **Market Situation**: Glass prices have significantly corrected with the cooling of market sentiment, and the current market sentiment has been basically digested. Soda ash prices fluctuate widely with the coal - chemical sector. In the short - term, both are expected to fluctuate [18][19].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The hot - rolled coil market is currently in a stage where macro - sentiment and real supply - demand are intertwined. The short - term fundamentals are weak, with sluggish demand improvement and high pig iron production. However, the low inventory and uncertainties in the raw material end provide conditions for the price to repeatedly rally. During the policy window period, prices are more driven by sentiment and expectations, with increased volatility. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in terminal demand and the impact of events such as production restrictions and safety production on supply. If there is resonance between the news and demand, there is room for the market to expand upwards; otherwise, the risk of high - level pressure cannot be ignored [1][14]. 3. Section Summaries Macro Aspects After multiple rounds of news - driven movements, the steel market has entered a relatively calm stage. The "anti - involution" policy has been partially reflected in the price, and some steel mills have received oral notices of environmental protection production restrictions from August 16 to early September, as well as the regional production restriction expectations due to the September 3 parade, which have all affected the price. After the Politburo meeting, the policy is in a "window period", and the market has returned to focusing on fundamentals [3]. Fundamental Aspects - **Static Fundamentals**: The overall demand for finished products is weak. Downstream industries like automotive and home appliances have insufficient restocking before the peak season, and there is no significant change in the real - estate policy. With high pig iron production and good steel mill profits, the supply is still actively released, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been significantly alleviated. Some projects only provide phased and structural support without changing the long - term demand pattern. However, the demand in engineering machinery and shipbuilding has some resilience [4]. - **Price Drivers**: The resonance between the recent price fluctuations and the spot fundamentals is decreasing. Short - term price drivers come more from the game between macro - expectations and emotions rather than just supply - demand fundamentals. Although there is short - term bearish pressure from the fundamental side, such as weak terminal demand and high pig iron production, the impact of raw material factors cannot be ignored. Uncertainties in supply make the price more volatile [13]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short term, the hot - rolled coil market is in a pattern where fundamental pressure and emotional support coexist. The weak real supply - demand restricts price increases, while low inventory, good domestic economic performance, and overseas easing expectations provide support. If there are favorable policies, projects, or production restrictions, or if the overseas interest - rate environment becomes more relaxed with marginal demand improvement, the cost - effectiveness of long - positions will increase; otherwise, the price may fall under high - level pressure [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated and the macro - environment is bearish, current oil prices are relatively undervalued, with good static fundamentals and positive dynamic forecasts. It's a good time for left - hand side layout, and if the geopolitical premium re - emerges, oil prices will have more upside potential [2] - For methanol, current reality is weak, but demand is expected to improve with the arrival of the peak season. It's recommended to wait and see [4] - For urea, the current situation is weak, but with low corporate profits, the downside is limited. There is a lack of upward drivers, but when positive factors emerge, prices may break out of the consolidation range. It's advisable to focus on long - position opportunities on dips [6] - For rubber, NR and RU are showing a strengthening trend in the oscillation. It's recommended to take a neutral view and wait and see in the short term, and consider a band - trading strategy of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [8][10] - For PVC, it has a situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. It's necessary to observe whether exports can reverse the domestic inventory build - up situation. It's recommended to wait and see [10] - For benzene styrene, the cost side has support, and the BZN spread has room for upward repair. Prices are expected to follow the cost side and oscillate upwards [12] - For PX, it has high load, and with new PTA installations, it's expected to continue de - stocking. It's recommended to look for long - position opportunities on dips following crude oil when the peak season arrives [18][19] - For PTA, there is expected continuous inventory build - up, and the processing fee has limited room for operation. It's recommended to look for long - position opportunities on dips following PX when downstream performance improves in the peak season [20] - For ethylene glycol, the fundamental situation is expected to turn from strong to weak, and there is short - term pressure on valuation decline [21] Summary by Category Crude Oil - As of last Friday, WTI main crude oil futures closed down $0.79, a 1.24% decline, at $63.14; Brent main crude oil futures closed down $0.76, a 1.14% decline, at $66.13; INE main crude oil futures closed up 4.40 yuan, a 0.91% increase, at 486.3 yuan [1] - European ARA weekly data showed that gasoline inventory decreased by 0.63 million barrels to 8.75 million barrels, a 6.76% decline; diesel inventory increased by 0.73 million barrels to 13.89 million barrels, a 5.56% increase; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.20 million barrels to 6.75 million barrels, a 3.00% increase; naphtha inventory increased by 0.76 million barrels to 5.72 million barrels, a 15.25% increase; aviation kerosene inventory increased by 0.50 million barrels to 7.29 million barrels, a 7.31% increase; total refined oil inventory increased by 1.55 million barrels to 42.40 million barrels, a 3.78% increase [1] Methanol - On August 15, the 01 contract dropped 23 yuan/ton to 2412 yuan/ton, and the spot price dropped 25 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 87 [4] - Coal prices have bottomed out and risen, increasing methanol costs, but coal - to - methanol profits are still at a high level compared to the same period. Domestic production is gradually bottoming out and rising, and overseas installations are at a high level, so imports will gradually increase, resulting in large supply pressure [4] - Traditional demand has low profits, and attention should be paid to the actual demand during the "Golden September and Silver October". Olefin profits have improved, but port operation rates are low, and demand is weak [4] Urea - On August 15, the 01 contract rose 11 yuan/ton to 1737 yuan/ton, and the spot price dropped 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 37 [6] - Domestic production has turned from decline to increase, and corporate profits are still low but are expected to gradually bottom out and recover. Production is still at a medium - to - high level compared to the same period, and overall supply is relatively loose [6] - Domestic agricultural demand is ending and will enter the off - season. Compound fertilizer production is rising, and finished product inventory is at a high level. Exports are progressing steadily, and overall demand is average [6] Rubber - NR and RU are strengthening in the oscillation [8] - As of August 14, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 63.07%, up 2.09 percentage points from last week and 7.42 percentage points from the same period last year. Domestic and export orders for all - steel tires are normal. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 72.25%, down 2.28 percentage points from last week and 6.41 percentage points from the same period last year. Export orders for semi - steel tires are weak [9] - As of August 10, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 127.8 tons, down 1.1 tons from the previous week, a 0.85% decline. The total inventory of dark rubber was 79.7 tons, down 0.8%; the total inventory of light rubber was 48 tons, down 0.8%. RU inventory increased by 1%. As of August 11, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 48.72(-1.4) tons [9] PVC - The PVC09 contract dropped 16 yuan to 4954 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4850(-10) yuan/ton, the basis was - 104(+6) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 143(+11) yuan/ton [10] - The cost of calcium carbide decreased, and the overall PVC operating rate was 80.3%, up 0.9% from the previous period. Among them, the calcium carbide method was 80%, up 1.3%; the ethylene method was 81.3%, down 0.2% [10] - The overall downstream operating rate was 42.8%, down 0.1% from the previous period. Factory inventory was 32.7 tons (-1), and social inventory was 81.2 tons (+3.5) [10] Benzene Styrene - Spot prices dropped, futures prices rose, and the basis weakened [12] - The market's macro - sentiment is good, and the cost side still has support. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level compared to the same period, with large upward repair space [12] - The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation has increased, and production is rising. Port inventory is continuously and significantly decreasing, and the demand - side operating rate of three S products is oscillating upwards [12] PX - The PX11 contract rose 74 yuan to 6688 yuan, PX CFR rose 3 dollars to 827 dollars, the basis was 115 yuan (-46), and the 11 - 1 spread was 6 yuan (+10) [18] - China's PX load was 84.3%, up 2.3% from the previous period; Asian load was 74.1%, up 0.5% [18] - Some domestic and overseas installations had restarts and shutdowns. PTA load was 76.4%, up 1.7%. In August, South Korea's PX exports to China were 11.2 tons, down 0.5 tons from the same period last year [18] PTA - The PTA09 contract rose 36 yuan to 4676 yuan, the spot price in East China rose 10 yuan to 4660 yuan, the basis was - 13 yuan (+1), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 40 yuan (-14) [20] - PTA load was 76.4%, up 1.7%. Some installations had restarts and shutdowns. Downstream load was 89.4%, up 0.6%. Terminal draw - texturing load rose 2% to 72%, and loom load rose 4% to 63% [20] - As of August 8, social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 227.3 tons, up 3.3 tons from the previous period [20] Ethylene Glycol - The EG09 contract rose 2 yuan to 4369 yuan, the spot price in East China dropped 6 yuan to 4462 yuan, the basis was 88 yuan (+6), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 43 yuan (+4) [21] - The supply - side load was 66.4%, down 2%. Among them, synthetic gas - based production was 80.5%, up 5.3%; ethylene - based production was 57.9%, down 6.4%. Some installations had restarts and shutdowns [21] - Downstream load was 89.4%, up 0.6%. Terminal draw - texturing load rose 2% to 72%, and loom load rose 4% to 63%. The expected import volume was 14.1 tons, and the outbound volume from East China on August 14 was 0.67 tons. Port inventory was 55.3 tons, up 3.7 tons [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The probability of a significant rebound in the international raw sugar price is low due to the obvious increase in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil after July and the expected increase in production in major northern hemisphere producers like India in the new season [8]. - The Zhengzhou sugar price is more likely to continue to decline as the domestic import supply will gradually increase in the next two months, the out - of - quota spot import profit has remained at the highest level in the past five years, and the futures price valuation is still high [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The international raw sugar price rose and then fell this week. As of Friday, the closing price of the ICE raw sugar October contract was 16.47 cents per pound, up 0.2 cents per pound from the previous week, a 1.23% increase. The domestic Zhengzhou sugar price rebounded. As of Friday, the closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar January contract was 5,664 yuan per ton, up 91 yuan per ton from the previous week, a 1.63% increase. Various spreads also showed different trends [9]. - **Industry News**: In the second half of July, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 50.217 million tons of sugarcane, a 2.66% year - on - year decrease; produced 3.614 million tons of sugar, a 0.8% year - on - year decrease. As of the week of August 13, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports decreased to 76 from 80 the previous week, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded decreased by 259,800 tons, a 7.26% decline [9]. - **Viewpoint and Strategy**: The probability of a significant rebound in the international raw sugar price is low, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is more likely to continue to decline. It is recommended to short at high levels with a profit - loss ratio of 2:1 within three months [8][9]. 3.2. Spread Trend Review - The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including spot price and basis, spot - to - spot spreads, domestic - international spreads, London white sugar monthly spreads, raw - white sugar spreads, raw sugar spot premiums and discounts, and sugar - alcohol price ratios, to show the historical trends of various spreads [17][20][25]. 3.3. Domestic Market Situation - The report shows charts of national sugar production, import volume, sales volume, and industrial inventory, covering monthly and cumulative data for multiple seasons, to reflect the supply and demand situation in the domestic sugar market [41][44][49][52]. 3.4. International Market Situation - The report provides charts of CFTC positions, sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil, India, and Thailand, and Brazilian sugar shipment volume, to show the international sugar market situation [57][60][65][68][71].

1. Investment Rating of the Report No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Politburo meeting emphasized enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market and consolidating the stable and positive momentum of the capital market, confirming the policy's supportive attitude towards the capital market [10][11]. - The A - share market has remained resilient recently. After continuous index increases, short - term market volatility is expected to intensify, but the overall strategy is to go long on dips [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Important News**: Articles by General Secretary Xi Jinping were published in Qiushi magazine; the central bank released the Q2 2025 China Monetary Policy Report; the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges monitored abnormal stocks; southbound funds had a record - high net purchase of HK$35.876 billion [10]. - **Economic and Corporate Earnings**: In July, industrial added - value grew 5.7% year - on - year, fixed - asset investment from January to July increased 1.6%, and retail sales rose 3.7%. Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3%, and non - manufacturing PMI to 50.1%. M1 and M2 growth rates increased. Social financing increment was 1.13 trillion yuan, with government bonds and bill financing driving growth, but overall performance was below expectations. Exports rose 7.2% and imports 4.1% [10]. - **Interest Rate and Credit Environment**: The 10 - year Treasury and credit bond interest rates continued to decline, credit spreads narrowed, and liquidity was relatively loose [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold a small amount of IM long positions in the long - term as the valuation is moderately low and IM has long - term discounts. Hold IF long positions for six months as a new interest - rate cut cycle has started, and high - dividend assets may benefit [12]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Markets - **Spot Market**: The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3696.77, up 3.46%; the Shenzhen Component Index at 11634.67, up 5.68%; and other major indices also had varying degrees of increase [14]. - **Futures Market**: All futures contracts, including IF, IH, IC, and IM, showed price increases and different levels of trading volume [15]. 3.3. Economy and Corporate Earnings - **Economy**: Q2 2025 GDP actual growth rate was 5.2%. In July, manufacturing PMI was 49.3%. Consumption growth rate was 3.7% and continued to decline. Exports in US dollars increased 7.2%. Investment growth rate was 1.6%, with manufacturing, real - estate, and infrastructure investment growth rates decreasing [32][35][38]. - **Corporate Earnings**: In Q1 2025, the revenue growth rate of non - financial listed companies in the A - share market slightly declined compared to Q4 but was higher than Q3 of last year. Operating net cash flow increased year - on - year, mainly due to inventory reduction [41]. 3.4. Interest Rate and Credit Environment - **Interest Rate**: The 10 - year Treasury bond and 3 - year AA - corporate bond interest rates showed a downward trend. Liquidity was relatively loose, and the spread between Chinese and US 10 - year bonds was presented in the report [44][49]. - **Credit Environment**: In July 2025, M1 growth rate was 5.6% and M2 was 8.8%. Social financing increment was 1.13 trillion yuan, mainly driven by government bonds and bill financing, while resident and corporate credit data declined significantly year - on - year [54]. 3.5. Capital Flows - **Inflow**: This week, new shares of equity - oriented funds were 59.47 million, and the net margin purchase was 4.5691 billion [60][63]. - **Outflow**: This week, major shareholders had a net increase of - 503.4 million, and the number of IPO approvals was 2 [66]. 3.6. Valuation - The price - to - earnings ratio (TTM) of the Shanghai 50 was 11.52, the CSI 300 was 13.46, the CSI 500 was 31.57, and the CSI 1000 was 43.79. The price - to - book ratio (LF) of the Shanghai 50 was 1.27, the CSI 300 was 1.42, the CSI 500 was 2.13, and the CSI 1000 was 2.43 [70].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - The supply disturbances of domestic and foreign bauxite ores are expected to support the ore price, but the over - capacity situation of alumina remains difficult to change. It is recommended to short at high levels based on market sentiment. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3000 - 3400 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies and Guinea's ore policies [12]. - Both unilateral and arbitrage trading strategies suggest a wait - and - see approach [14]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - **Futures Price**: As of 3 pm on August 16, the alumina index rose 0.41% to 3195 yuan/ton this week, with open interest increasing by 18,000 lots to 389,000 lots. Affected by news of domestic bauxite in Shanxi and Guinea's bauxite, the price soared at the beginning of the week but then gradually declined due to the over - supply fundamentals. The Shandong spot price was 3205 yuan/ton, with a premium of 9 yuan/ton over the 09 contract. The spread between the first and third contracts closed at - 7 yuan/ton [11][25]. - **Spot Price**: This week, the spot prices of alumina in various regions changed little. The prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang decreased by 0 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton respectively [11][21]. - **Inventory**: The total social inventory of alumina increased by 55,000 tons to 4.199 million tons this week. The in - plant inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants, in - plant inventory of alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 47,000 tons, 20,000 tons, decreased by 16,000 tons, and increased by 4,000 tons respectively. The warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 39,600 tons to 65,800 tons, and the inventory in delivery warehouses was 88,400 tons, an increase of 290 tons from last week. The registered volume of warehouse receipts rebounded significantly this week as the supply of spot goods became looser [11][70][72]. - **Others**: Domestic bauxite production has declined recently due to environmental supervision in the north and the rainy season in the south, and the price of domestic ore is expected to remain firm. The shipment of Guinea's bauxite has declined due to the rainy season and previous bans, which is expected to lead to a decline in the arrival volume of imported ores. The port inventory will experience phased destocking, and the ore price still has short - term support. This week, the domestic alumina production was 1.849 million tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last week but still at a high level. The FOB price of Australian alumina decreased by 7 US dollars/ton to 367 US dollars/ton this week, and the import profit and loss was - 25 yuan/ton, with the import window approaching to open. In July 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.193 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons from the previous month, and the operating rate increased by 0.55% to 97.24% [12]. 2. Spot and Futures Prices - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of alumina in various regions changed little this week. The prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang decreased by 0 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton respectively [21]. - **Futures Price and Basis**: As of 3 pm on August 16, the alumina index rose 0.41% to 3195 yuan/ton this week, with open interest increasing by 18,000 lots to 389,000 lots. Affected by news of domestic bauxite in Shanxi and Guinea's bauxite, the price soared at the beginning of the week but then gradually declined due to the over - supply fundamentals. The Shandong spot price was 3205 yuan/ton, with a premium of 9 yuan/ton over the 09 contract. The spread between the first and third contracts closed at - 7 yuan/ton [25]. - **Bauxite Price**: The bauxite prices in various regions remained unchanged this week. The CIF price of Guinea's bauxite remained at 74 US dollars/ton, and that of Australia remained at 69 US dollars/ton. The shipment of Guinea's bauxite has declined recently, which is expected to lead to a decline in the arrival volume of imported ores, and the port inventory is expected to experience phased destocking. The ore price still has medium - term support [28]. 3. Supply Side - **Bauxite Production**: In July 2025, China's bauxite production was 5.43 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.4% and a month - on - month increase of 4.64%. The total production in the first seven months of 2025 was 35.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.75% [32]. - **Bauxite Import**: In June 2025, China imported 18.12 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 35.86% and a month - on - month increase of 3.44%. The total import in the first six months of 2025 was 103.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.68%. Among them, in June 2025, China imported 1332 tons of bauxite from Guinea, a year - on - year increase of 40.18% and a month - on - month increase of 0.76%. The cumulative import in the first six months of 2025 was 79.67 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 41.49%. Recently, the shipment volume from Guinea has decreased, and the import volume is expected to decline gradually after June due to mining restrictions in the AXIS mining area and the rainy season, but the annual ore supply still remains in surplus. In June 2025, China imported 3.02 million tons of bauxite from Australia, a year - on - year decrease of 1.48% and a month - on - month increase of 1.92%. The cumulative import in the first six months of 2025 was 16.48 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.1% [34][36][38]. - **Bauxite Inventory**: In July 2025, China's bauxite inventory increased by 7.98 million tons to 53.46 million tons. In key regions, the bauxite inventory in Shanxi increased by 1.03 million tons, and that in Henan increased by 420,000 tons [40]. - **Alumina Production**: In July 2025, China's alumina production was 7.224 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% and a month - on - month increase of 5.43%. The cumulative production in the first seven months of 2025 was 51.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.99%. In July 2025, the operating capacity of alumina was 93.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.94% and a month - on - month increase of 4.22%. This week, the domestic alumina production was 1.849 million tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last week but still at a high level [43][44][45]. - **Alumina Factory Profit**: The spot price of alumina has rebounded, and the profit of alumina factories has improved. According to the spot price of alumina on August 15, the production profit in Guangxi can reach 570 yuan/ton. The profits of using Australian and Guinea's ores in Shandong are 377 yuan/ton and 425 yuan/ton respectively. The profits of using Guinea's ores in Shanxi and Henan are 174 yuan/ton and 227 yuan/ton respectively [48]. - **Alumina Import and Export**: In June 2025, the net export of alumina was 69,700 tons, maintaining a net export status. The import volume increased from 67,500 tons last month to 101,300 tons, and the export volume decreased from 207,800 tons to 171,000 tons. The total net export in the first six months of 2025 was 1.075 million tons. The import window opened slightly in June, and the increase in import volume decreased. It is expected that a small - scale net export will become the norm. As of August 15, the weekly FOB price of Australian alumina decreased by 7 US dollars/ton to 367 US dollars/ton, and the import profit and loss was - 25 yuan/ton, with the import window approaching to open [50][52]. - **Overseas Alumina Production**: In July 2025, the overseas alumina production was 5.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.46% and a month - on - month increase of 4.56%. The cumulative production in the first seven months of 2025 was 35.85 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.05% [54]. 4. Demand Side - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In July 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.778 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49% and a month - on - month increase of 3.44%. The total production in the first seven months of 2025 was 25.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73% [59]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Operation**: In July 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.193 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons from the previous month, and the operating rate increased by 0.55% to 97.24% [62]. 5. Supply - Demand Balance The report provides an alumina balance sheet from January to December 2025 (estimated for some months), showing the alumina supply - demand difference, total demand, total supply, net export, export volume, import volume, consumption of alumina by electrolytic aluminum, electrolytic aluminum production, electrolytic aluminum operating capacity, alumina production, and alumina operating capacity for each month [65]. 6. Inventory - The total social inventory of alumina increased by 55,000 tons to 4.199 million tons this week. The in - plant inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants, in - plant inventory of alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 47,000 tons, 20,000 tons, decreased by 16,000 tons, and increased by 4,000 tons respectively [70]. - The alumina warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 39,600 tons to 65,800 tons this week, and the inventory in delivery warehouses was 88,400 tons, an increase of 290 tons from last week. The registered volume of warehouse receipts rebounded significantly this week as the supply of spot goods became looser [72].