Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: Global soybean supply has decreased compared to the 24/25 season, and the bottom of import cost may have been reached, but upward space requires greater production cuts. With high domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories and under pressure on crushing margins, soybean meal is expected to trade in a range [2][4]. - **Oils**: Malaysian palm oil production in December showed a 6.87% month - on - month increase in the first ten days, and exports from December 1 - 10 rose by 46.98% compared to the previous month. Despite current high inventories, there is a de - stocking expectation in the medium - term. Palm oil is expected to trade with short - term fluctuations and a potential upward trend in the future [6]. - **Sugar**: Newly estimated sugar production in major producing countries is increasing, and the global supply - demand relationship has shifted from shortage to surplus. International sugar prices may not improve significantly until next year's first quarter. Domestic sugar prices are at a relatively low level, and short - term observation is recommended [10][11]. - **Cotton**: Although the previous peak season was lackluster, post - season demand is not bad. With the commodity market's rebound, short - term capital inflows may push up cotton prices, but a unilateral trend is unlikely due to limited driving forces and hedging pressure [13][14]. - **Eggs**: With high egg production inventory and limited short - term demand growth, egg prices are expected to decline slightly this week and then stabilize. The futures market's near - month contracts may squeeze the premium, and long - term attention should be paid to the upper pressure [17][18]. - **Pigs**: With the approaching consumption peak, the spot market is warming up, and the futures market is stabilizing. However, due to high supply in the near - month, the rebound space is limited. It is recommended to short after the consumption - driven rebound, and consider reverse spreads or long positions in the far - month contracts [20][21]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean and Soybean Meal - **Market Information**: Last Friday, CBOT soybeans closed lower. Although China is continuously purchasing US soybeans, the sales progress is slow, and South American soybean - growing areas have received good rainfall. Domestic soybean meal spot prices fell slightly over the weekend. MYSTEEL estimates that this week's soybean crushing volume will be 2.0445 million tons, up from 2.0375 million tons last week. The feed enterprise inventory days were 9.13 last week, up 0.64 days from the previous week [2]. - **Strategy**: Soybean import cost has a bottom support, but the upward space is limited. With high domestic inventories and under pressure on crushing margins, soybean meal is expected to trade in a range [4]. Oils - **Market Information**: SPPOMA data shows that Malaysian palm oil production in the first ten days of December increased by 6.87% month - on - month. Shipments from December 1 - 10 were 280,048 tons, up 46.98% from the previous month. Last Friday, domestic oil futures closed lower at night, pressured by Malaysian palm oil inventory build - up and increased production [6]. - **Strategy**: Although current palm oil inventories are high, there is a de - stocking expectation in the medium - term. The MPOB monthly report may have short - term negative impacts, but there is a seasonal upward trend. Short - term operations based on high - frequency data are recommended [8]. Sugar - **Market Information**: On Friday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices fell slightly. Spot sugar prices in major regions also declined, except for processed sugar, which remained stable. Green Pool expects Thailand's sugar production to increase by 6% in the 2025/26 season but decrease in the 2026/27 season. As of November 30, 2025, India's sugar production increased year - on - year. The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports decreased in the week ending December 10 [9][10]. - **Strategy**: With an expected increase in global sugar production, international sugar prices may not improve significantly until next year's first quarter. Domestic sugar prices are at a low level, and short - term observation is recommended [11]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Friday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices were volatile. The spot price index increased slightly. As of December 12, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.5%, unchanged from the previous week. The global cotton production forecast for the 2025/26 season was slightly adjusted downwards [13]. - **Strategy**: Although the previous peak season was lackluster, post - season demand is not bad. With the commodity market's rebound, short - term capital inflows may push up cotton prices, but a unilateral trend is unlikely [14]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were mostly stable over the weekend, with some areas showing weakness. The laying hen inventory remains high, and short - term demand is unlikely to increase [17]. - **Strategy**: The futures market's near - month contracts may squeeze the premium, and long - term attention should be paid to the upper pressure [18]. Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices rose over the weekend. Snow in the north affected pig sales, and consumption in both the north and south increased due to the cold weather [20]. - **Strategy**: With the approaching consumption peak, the spot market is warming up, and the futures market is stabilizing. However, due to high supply in the near - month, the rebound space is limited. It is recommended to short after the consumption - driven rebound, and consider reverse spreads or long positions in the far - month contracts [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Fed's interest - rate meeting cut rates, the silver price fell after accelerating its rise, and it is currently recommended to maintain a wait - and - see attitude. For gold, it is recommended to hold long positions. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 940 - 989 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver, it is 13918 - 15000 yuan/kilogram [3]. - The Fed's unexpectedly dovish statement made the silver price strong, but the short - term exhaustion of positive factors after the interest - rate meeting means that the upward trend of silver has entered an acceleration phase. From a macro - driving perspective, the upward momentum of gold and silver is relatively weakened. The strong economic data will be a negative factor for the Fed's easing expectations in the first half of 2026 [2]. - The logic of tight overseas silver spot in December has significantly weakened. The de - stocking rate of COMEX silver has slowed down, and the LBMA silver inventory has increased [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Quotes - Shanghai gold rose 0.84% to 972.76 yuan/gram, Shanghai silver fell 2.28% to 14437.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold was reported at 4334.40 dollars/ounce, COMEX silver was reported at 62.16 dollars/ounce; the yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was 4.19%, and the US dollar index was 98.38 [2]. - From December 5th to 11th, the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 38.99 tons to 14177.5 tons. The LBMA silver inventory increased from 2.62 million tons at the end of October to 2.72 million tons, with a single - month inventory increase of 931.9 tons. The overseas one - month spot lease rate was 7.18%, remaining at a relatively high level in the same period of the past five years [2]. Key Data of Gold and Silver - For COMEX gold on December 12, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 4329.80 dollars/ounce (up 0.48% from the previous day), the trading volume was 28.37 million lots (up 28.65%), the position was 47.20 million lots (up 2.60%), and the inventory was 1119 tons (down 0.41%) [5]. - For SHFE gold on December 12, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 970.66 yuan/gram (up 1.33% from the previous day), the trading volume was 36.65 million lots (up 20.20%), the position was 34.86 million lots (up 5.69%), and the inventory was 91.30 tons (unchanged) [5]. - For COMEX silver on December 12, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 62.09 dollars/ounce (down 2.95% from the previous day), the position was 15.33 million lots (down 3.98%), and the inventory was 14101 tons (down 0.54%) [5]. - For SHFE silver on December 12, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 14,892.00 yuan/kilogram (up 2.79% from the previous day), the trading volume was 276.66 million lots (up 7.11%), the position was 78.82 million lots (down 0.45%), and the inventory was 820.92 tons (up 5.17%) [5].

宏观因素驱动铂族金属价 格走强 铂族金属周报 2025/12/13 0755-23375141 zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 钟俊轩（宏观金融组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及行情展望 04 供给和需求 02 市场回顾 05 月差及跨市场价差 03 库存及ETF持仓变动 01 周度评估及行情展望 周度评估及行情展望 | 铂族金属重点数据汇总 | | 单位 | 2025-12-12 | | 2025-12-05 | | 周度变化 | | 周度涨跌幅度 | | 月度涨跌幅度 | | 进一年历史分位数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铂 金 | | CFTC报告区间为 | 2025-11-10 | | 2025-11-04 | | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘价(活跃合约) | 成交量(五日均值) | 美元/盎司 手 | 1713 323 ...

Report Title - Polyester Weekly Report (2025/12/13) [1] Report Core Viewpoints - PX: Currently at a neutral valuation level, with expectations of slight inventory accumulation in December. Consider opportunistic long positions on dips [11]. - PTA: In the short - term, it is in a de - stocking phase, but the upside is limited. As the approach to January nears, processing fees may face pressure. Look for opportunistic long positions based on expectations [12]. - MEG: The port inventory accumulation cycle will continue, and there is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction in the medium - term. Be wary of potential price rebounds due to increased unexpected maintenance [13]. Section Summaries 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **PX**: Price showed a weakening trend last week, with a decline in futures and spot prices. Supply side: China's load decreased, and overseas plants had some adjustments. Demand side: PTA load remained flat. Inventory is expected to accumulate slightly in December. Valuation is at a neutral level, and it is recommended to look for long - entry opportunities on dips [11]. - **PTA**: Prices also weakened last week. Supply side: Load remained unchanged, and maintenance volume stayed at a high level. Demand side: Polyester load declined slightly. Inventory is expected to continue decreasing. Processing fees are expected to face pressure later, and consider long - entry opportunities based on expectations [12]. - **MEG**: Prices dropped significantly last week. Supply side: Load decreased, and unexpected maintenance increased. Demand side: Polyester load declined. Inventory is expected to continue accumulating. Valuation is relatively low, and be cautious of price rebounds caused by increased maintenance [13]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - **PX**: Basis fluctuated, and monthly spreads strengthened. Trading volume and open interest data are presented in relevant charts [31][34]. - **PTA**: Basis and 1 - 5 spreads showed certain changes. Trading volume and open interest data are provided [43][45]. - **MEG**: Basis weakened, and monthly spreads were weak. Trading volume and open interest data are available [55][62]. 3. PX Fundamentals - **Supply**: Capacity has increased in some years, and the current load is at a high level [76][79]. - **Import**: Import volume decreased slightly in October [83]. - **Inventory**: Slight inventory accumulation in October [85]. - **Cost - profit**: PXN decreased slightly, short - process spreads widened, and naphtha spreads were strong. Aromatic - blending oil data showed a weakening trend [89][96]. 4. PTA Fundamentals - **Supply**: New production capacity has been added in recent years, and the current load is relatively low. Export data is also presented [132][135]. - **Inventory**: End - of - period inventory and other inventory - related data are provided [139]. - **Profit - valuation**: Processing fees are at a low level [141]. 5. MEG Fundamentals - **Supply**: New production capacity has been added, and the current load has decreased. Import data from different regions is shown [145][148]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory has been accumulating, and both upstream and downstream factory inventories are relatively high [157]. - **Cost**: Coal prices fluctuated weakly, ethylene prices stopped falling and rebounded, and US ethane prices weakened [168]. - **Profit**: Naphtha - based MEG profit dropped to a yearly low, and coal - based profit was significantly compressed [171]. 6. Polyester and End - users - **Polyester**: New production capacity has been put into operation. Basis: Staple fiber basis is strong, and bottle - chip basis fluctuates. Supply: Operating rate started to decline. Inventory: Filament inventory is at a low level. Profit: Filament profit weakened [185][188][191]. - **End - users**: Operating rate decreased and is lower compared to the same period last year. Orders decreased, inventory increased, and raw - material inventory decreased. Spinning and clothing domestic demand growth recovered, while exports were weak [212][219][223].

陈逸 （联系人） 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0023202 供需弱平衡状态， 高库存制约涨势 玻璃周报 从业资格号：F03137504 郎志杰（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F3030112 2025/12/13 产业链示意图 上游 天然碱矿 （天然碱法） 原盐、石灰石 （氨碱法） 原盐、合成氨 （联碱法） 燃料：动力煤、 天然气 中游 轻碱 重碱 氯化铵 下游 日用玻璃 洗涤剂 食品行业 无机盐 平板玻璃 农用氮肥 房地产——约88% 汽车——约6% 光伏——约1% 其他 目录 03 利润及成本 周度评估及策略推荐 周度要点小结 价格：截至2025/12/13，浮法玻璃现货市场报价1040元/吨，环比-30元/吨；玻璃主力合约收盘报935元/吨，环比-59元/吨；基差105元/吨， 环比上周+29元/吨。 成本利润：截至2025/12/13，以天然气为燃料生产浮法玻璃的周均利润为-196.42元/吨，环比+26.58元/吨；河南LNG市场低端价4400元/吨， 环比+250元/吨。以煤炭为燃料生产浮法玻璃的周均利润为6.51元/吨，环比-0.01元/吨；以石油焦为 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term bullish sentiment for copper has cooled, but the support remains strong. Although the copper valuation is relatively neutral, considering the Fed's interest - rate cut and the positive policy tone of the domestic Central Economic Work Conference, the overall sentiment is not pessimistic. The copper ore supply remains tight, and the pressure of refined copper surplus is not significant. It is expected that the risk of continuous decline in copper prices is small, and the prices may gradually turn into a volatile trend. The operating range of SHFE copper main contract is expected to be 90,000 - 94,500 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper 3M is expected to be 11,200 - 12,000 US dollars/ton [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: The spot processing fee of copper concentrate has declined, while the processing fee of blister copper has increased month - on - month. The supply of scrap materials is relatively loose. As of the end of November, the Kuth Copper refinery under India's Adani Group is facing a serious raw material shortage crisis, with the actual arrival of copper concentrate less than 10% of the demand [11]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges has increased by 11,000 tons month - on - month. The inventory of SHFE has slightly increased by 500 tons to 89,000 tons, the inventory of LME has increased by 1,000 tons to 166,000 tons, and the inventory of COMEX has increased by 10,000 tons to 405,000 tons. The inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area is 101,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons month - on - month. The spot in Shanghai, China on Friday was at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the futures, and the LME market's Cash/3M was at a premium of 20.7 US dollars/ton [11]. - **Imports and Exports**: The spot import loss of domestic electrolytic copper has slightly widened, and the Yangshan copper premium has remained stable. In November 2025, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 427,000 tons, a decrease of 13,000 tons month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 19.3%. The cumulative imports from January to November were 4.907 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.67% [11]. - **Demand**: Due to the high copper prices, the spot market trading has been sluggish. The refined copper rod enterprises have strictly controlled the production rhythm, and the operating rate has declined. The domestic refined - scrap copper price difference has first narrowed and then widened, the substitution advantage of scrap copper has increased, and the operating rate of downstream scrap copper rod enterprises has rebounded from a low level [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices**: Copper prices have risen and then fallen. The SHFE copper main contract has increased by 1.40% week - on - week (as of Friday's close), and LME copper has decreased by 2.37% to 11,552.5 US dollars/ton [20]. - **Spot Prices**: The domestic copper prices have strengthened. On Friday, the copper spot in East China was at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the futures. The LME inventory has increased, the proportion of cancelled warrants has risen, and the Cash/3M has remained at a premium, reporting a premium of 20.7 US dollars/ton on Friday. Last week, the spot import of domestic electrolytic copper remained at a loss, and the Yangshan copper premium has remained stable [25]. - **Structure**: The Back structure of SHFE copper has shrunk, while the LME copper has maintained the Back structure [28] 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Smelting Profit**: The spot rough - smelting fee TC for imported copper concentrate has declined to - 43.08 US dollars/ton. The sulfuric acid price in East China has continued to rise, which still has a positive impact on copper smelting revenue [33]. - **Imports and Exports Ratio**: The spot import loss of copper has slightly widened [38]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges is 661,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons month - on - month. The inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area is 101,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons month - on - month. The increase in SHFE inventory comes from Jiangsu and Guangdong, while the inventory in Shanghai has decreased. The number of copper warrants has increased by 1,102 to 32,563 tons. The LME inventory has increased, with the increase coming from Asian warehouses and a decrease in European inventory. The proportion of cancelled warrants has risen [41][44][47] 3.4 Supply Side - **Production**: In November 2025, China's refined copper production has increased by about 10,000 tons month - on - month, and it is expected to increase significantly in December. In October 2025, the domestic refined copper production was 1.204 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.98%, and the cumulative production from January to October was 12.295 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.70% [51]. - **Imports and Exports**: In November 2025, China's copper ore imports were 2.526 million tons, a rebound from the previous month. The cumulative imports from January to November were 27.614 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%. In November 2025, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 427,000 tons, a decrease of 13,000 tons month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 19.3%. In October, China's refined copper imports were 323,000 tons, and the net imports were 257,000 tons. The proportion of imports from Russia, Chile, Australia, Kazakhstan, South Korea, and Morocco has increased, while the proportion of imports from Myanmar, Japan, etc. has decreased. In October, China's exports of refined copper were 66,000 tons, an increase of 39,000 tons month - on - month. The import of recycled copper in October was 197,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.8% and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% [54][57][63] 3.5 Demand Side - **Consumption Structure**: Globally, the consumption of electrolytic copper is mainly in the power sector (46%), followed by household appliances (15%), transportation (11%), etc. In China, the consumption is mainly in equipment (32%) and construction (26%) [72] - **Downstream Industry Output**: In October, the output of freezers among copper downstream industries has increased year - on - year, while the output of refrigerators, air conditioners, automobiles, color TVs, AC motors, and power generation equipment has decreased year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative output of automobiles, color TVs, and AC motors has increased year - on - year, while the cumulative output of freezers, power generation equipment, air conditioners, washing machines, and refrigerators has decreased [78] - **Downstream Enterprise Operating Rates**: In November, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises has recovered, and it is expected to slightly decline in December; the operating rate of scrap copper rod enterprises has decreased, and it is expected to continue to decline in December. The operating rate of enameled wire enterprises has rebounded, and it is expected to slightly improve in December; the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises has increased better than expected, and it is expected to continue to rise in December. The operating rate of copper tube enterprises has recovered, and it is expected to continue to rise in December; the operating rate of brass rod enterprises has increased, and it is expected to slightly strengthen in December. The operating rate of copper plate and strip enterprises has rebounded, and it is expected to increase in December; the operating rate of copper foil enterprises has increased, and it is expected to continue to rise in December. This week, the operating rate of electrolytic copper rod enterprises has declined, while the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises has rebounded [83][86][89][92][95] - **Refined - Scrap Price Difference**: The domestic refined - scrap price difference has narrowed, and the refined - scrap price difference was reported at 4,797 yuan/ton on Friday [102] 3.6 Capital Side - **SHFE Copper Position**: The total position of SHFE copper has decreased by 13,496 to 1,293,826 lots (bilateral), among which the position of the near - month 2512 contract is 10,820 lots (bilateral) [107] - **Foreign Fund Position**: As of November 10, the CFTC fund position has maintained a net long position, with a net long ratio of 16.6%. The proportion of net long positions of LME investment funds has slightly increased (as of December 5) [110]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market logic for the bulls is the expected supply disruptions in Thailand due to the rainy season, more upward movements than downward in the second half of the year, and the expected positive impact of Chinese policies. The low exchange inventory is also a factor. The main reasons for the bears are the current dull demand, the expected decline in demand due to tariff policies, and the increase in rubber exports from Thailand and Cote d'Ivoire. [14] - The short - term demand for rubber is negatively affected by the postponement of EUDR, which leads to a chain reaction such as inventory reduction in the stocking process of rubber and tire factories. [11] - The new production capacity of butadiene in Q4 is expected to increase the supply of butadiene, and the processing profit of butadiene is expected to decline. The supply of raw materials is negative for the price of butadiene rubber. [18] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - In mid - November, about 10 - 110,000 tons of rubber warehouse receipts are expected to be out of storage, significantly reducing the exchange's rubber inventory and warehouse receipts. December is a season with high demand such as winter storage, not the season when supply - demand margins deteriorate. [10] - In mid - December, there was continuous rainfall in the main rubber - producing areas of Thailand, but the probability of floods was low. The conflict between Thailand and Cambodia led to a relatively strong rubber price, but considering the overall decline of commodities, there is a risk of price catch - up decline. [10] - The conflict between Thailand and Cambodia mainly affected the northeastern region of Thailand, with a 2024 natural rubber output of about 260,000 - 270,000 tons, accounting for about 5 - 6% of the country's total output. The escalation of the conflict led to the evacuation of border residents and the shutdown of rubber factories, causing a shortage of tapping and production workers, with a certain positive impact on supply. [10] - The recommended trading strategy is to go long on RU2601 and short on RU2609, with a profit - loss ratio of 1.5:1, for an indefinite period. If the future demand expectation improves, the price difference will widen, and repeated band operations are recommended. [19] 3.2. Cost End - The market generally believes that the cost of cup rubber in Thailand is 30 - 35 Thai baht, the cost of full - latex in Hainan, China is 13,500 yuan, and the cost of full - latex in Yunnan, China is 12,500 - 13,000 yuan. [52] - Rubber maintenance cost is a dynamic concept. When the rubber price is high, rubber farmers are more motivated to maintain, and the cost is high; when the price is low, the cost is reduced. In the first half of 2024, rubber farmers were highly motivated. [52] 3.3. Futures and Spot Market - Rubber maintains its seasonal pattern, with a tendency to decline in the first half of the year. Overseas demand for rubber is expected to decline marginally, while Chinese demand remains stable. The ratio of rubber to crude oil has been declining since Q4 2020. [26][30][33] 3.4. Profit and Ratio - Most of the ratios, such as rubber to copper, rubber to Brent crude oil, rubber to black commodities, rubber to the Shanghai Composite Index, and rubber to the ChiNext Index, show normal values without special attention points. The similar movement rhythm of black and rubber products reflects the market's similar expectations for macro - demand. [41][44][48] 3.5. Demand End - The operating rate of all - steel tires in tire factories is 64.07% (0.57%), with normal demand for all - steel tires. The peak of semi - steel tire exports to Europe has passed, and the demand is expected to weaken. [14] - The demand for medium - sized trucks and commercial vehicles is slowly improving from a low level, and the export of truck tires is currently booming but expected to decline slightly in the future. [61][64] 3.6. Supply End - The rainy season in Thailand is coming to an end. There are still significant differences in the medium - term supply expectations, with some believing in small fluctuations and others expecting an increase of 200,000 - 300,000 tons. [14] - In September 2025, the rubber output was 1.1416 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.30% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.98%. The cumulative output was 8.17 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.33%. [99] - The new production capacity of butadiene in Q4 is expected to increase the supply, and the import of butadiene is also expected to be high, which will put downward pressure on the price of butadiene rubber. [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The stainless - steel market has entered the traditional off - season with a generally light trading atmosphere. The transaction price of nickel iron at the raw material end has risen slightly, and the market sentiment for price support has increased. The supply - side contraction effect is gradually emerging at the end of the year, with increased maintenance and production cuts by steel mills in December and the usual year - end capacity control, which is expected to further ease the supply pressure. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, meeting market expectations. Overall, the stainless - steel market is in a tight - balance pattern, with prices showing a wide - range oscillation. There is a lack of clear short - term direction, so it is recommended to wait and see. [11][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Key Points Summary**: On December 12, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was 12,800 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.79%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 890 yuan/nickel, unchanged from the previous week; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.18%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,565 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.52%. In December, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.4459 million tons. In November, the crude steel output was 3.0486 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15,900 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to November was 6.48%. The estimated output of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in November was 1.4062 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%; the output of 300 - series cold - rolled steel in December was 688,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.76%. From January to October in 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 719.82 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.80%; in October, the single - month sales area was 61.4721 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.60%. In October, the year - on - year growth rates of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were - 3%, - 6%, - 13.5%, and - 2% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fuel processing industry in October was + 21.2%. The total social inventory of stainless steel last week was 1.0636 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.55%; the inventory of futures warrants last week was 60,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,490 tons. The social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel last week were 176,800/662,600/224,100 tons respectively, with the 300 - series inventory decreasing by 0.26% week - on - week; the sea - floating volume of stainless steel last week was 61,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.64%, and the unloading volume was 68,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 27.69%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong last week was 895 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/nickel, and iron plants in Fujian were currently losing 101 yuan/nickel. [11] - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies recommend waiting and seeing. [13] 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - On December 12, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was 12,800 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.79%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 890 yuan/nickel, unchanged from the previous week; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.18%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,565 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.52%. The market quotation in Foshan Delong was about a discount of 65 yuan (- 44) compared to the main contract; the market quotation in Wuxi Hongwang was about a premium of 35 yuan (+ 34) compared to the main contract. The trading volume on the disk was 202,432 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 0.12%. In terms of monthly spreads, the spread between contract 1 and contract 2 was - 120 (- 30), and the spread between contract 1 and contract 3 was - 185 (- 35). [18][21][24] 3.3. Supply Side - In December, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.4459 million tons. In November, the crude steel output was 3.0486 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15,900 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to November was 6.48%. The estimated output of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in November was 1.4062 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%; the output of 300 - series cold - rolled steel in December was 688,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.76%. The estimated monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia in October was 430,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.27%; China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia in October reached 103,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.92%. In October, the net export volume of stainless steel was 234,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.54% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.71%; the cumulative net export from January to October was 1.0809 million tons, a 65.78% increase compared to the same period last year. [28][31][34][37] 3.4. Demand Side - From January to October in 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 719.82 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.80%; in October, the single - month sales area was 61.4721 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.60%. In October, the year - on - year growth rates of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were - 3%, - 6%, - 13.5%, and - 2% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fuel processing industry in October was + 21.2%. In October, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 113,000 units, a month - on - month decrease of 16.30% and a year - on - year increase of 0.00%; the automobile sales volume in October was 3.3221 million units, a month - on - month increase of 2.97% and a year - on - year increase of 8.82%. [41][44][47] 3.5. Inventory - The total social inventory of stainless steel last week was 1.0636 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.55%; the inventory of futures warrants last week was 60,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,490 tons. The social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel last week were 176,800/662,600/224,100 tons respectively, with the 300 - series inventory decreasing by 0.26% week - on - week; the sea - floating volume of stainless steel last week was 61,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.64%, and the unloading volume was 68,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 27.69%. [51][54] 3.6. Cost Side - In October, the nickel ore import volume was 4.6828 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.50% and a year - on - year increase of 11.81%; the current nickel ore quotation for Ni:1.5% was 54.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory was 14.5587 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.94%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong last week was 895 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/nickel, and iron plants in Fujian were currently losing 101 yuan/nickel. The chromium ore quotation last week was 51.25 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.25 yuan/dry ton; the high - carbon ferrochrome quotation was 8,000 yuan/50 base tons, unchanged from the previous week. In terms of production, the high - carbon ferrochrome output in November was 881,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.84%. The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel iron production line was - 511 yuan/ton, and the profit margin reached - 3.84%. [58][61][64][67]

短期镍价弱势运行 镍周报 2025/12/13 刘显杰（联系人） 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130746 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 精炼镍 02 期现市场 05 硫酸镍 03 成本端 06 供需平衡 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 资源端：本周镍矿价格整体持稳运行。火法矿方面，尽管冶炼厂成本倒挂加剧，对矿需求显著走弱，但矿商议价能力较强，印尼与菲律宾火法 矿价格均未出现明显下跌，后市或能继续维持坚挺。湿法矿方面，市场仍相对平淡，价格持稳运行为主。 ◆ 镍铁：本周随着印尼铁厂利润触及低位，市场部分采买需求释放，镍铁价格企稳反弹。但从需求来看，目前下游钢厂整体采购意愿依旧低迷， 预计镍铁价格上行空间有限，后市或持稳运行为主。 ◆ 中间品：本周中间品成交整体一般，但在成本支撑下系数价格维持高位。供给方面，海外硫磺价格维持强势，卖方挺价意愿偏强。但当前外采 MHP经济性较低，且镍盐厂多已完成采购，整体需求转弱，多持观望态度。 ◆ 精 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market this week was weak, and the prices of finished steel products showed a volatile trend. Fundamentally, the production of rebar decreased significantly this week, and inventory continued to decline, with an overall performance of being neutral to stable. The production of hot-rolled coils continued to decline, the apparent demand decreased slightly, the pressure on inventory reduction increased further, and there were signs of inventory accumulation in the factory warehouse this week. - Politically, the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference emphasized expanding domestic demand, optimizing project implementation and bond management, and promoting urban renewal. The real estate industry will continue the main tone of "controlling increments and reducing inventory", and new construction is expected to remain weak. - Overall, terminal demand remains weak, the inventory pressure of hot-rolled coils is prominent, and steel prices may fluctuate in the bottom range. As the winter storage season approaches, attention should be paid to winter storage policies. [10][11] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply Side - **Production Volume**: This week, the total rebar production was 1.79 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 5.6% and a year-on-year decrease of 19.6%. The cumulative production was 105.413 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%. Long-process production was 1.51 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 5.8% and a year-on-year decrease of 21.4%. Short-process production was 280,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 4.0% and a year-on-year decrease of 8.1%. [51] - **Capacity Utilization**: This week, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 87%, the same as the previous value, and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 53%, a decrease from the previous value of 54%. [54] - **Hot Metal Production**: The average daily hot metal production this week was 2.32 million tons, the same as the previous value. [59] - **Regional Production**: The rebar production in the northern region was 300,000 tons, down from the previous value of 350,000 tons, and in the southern region was 690,000 tons, down from the previous value of 710,000 tons. In the East China region, it was 800,000 tons, with Jiangsu at 320,000 tons, Shandong at 60,000 tons, and Anhui at 150,000 tons. Guangdong's production was 220,000 tons, and Guangxi's was 80,000 tons. [62][65][68] 3.2 Demand Side - **Building Materials Trading Volume**: The trading volume of building materials was 117,741 tons, up from the previous week's 105,098 tons. The trading volume of building materials in Shanghai was 19,200 tons, the same as last week. - **Rebar Consumption**: The weekly consumption of rebar was 2.03 million tons, and in East China, it was 1 million tons. In the Southwest, it was 360,000 tons, in South China, it was 300,000 tons, in North China, it was 100,000 tons, in Central China, it was 120,000 tons, in Northeast China, it was 40,000 tons, and in Northwest China, it was 140,000 tons. - **Cement Price**: The price of cement P.O42.5 in Hangzhou was 475 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai, it was 435 yuan/ton. [71][79][86] 3.3 Import and Export - In October, the import of steel billets was 30,000 tons. [9] 3.4 Inventory - **Total Inventory**: This week, the social inventory of rebar was 3.39 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 6.2% and a year-on-year increase of 12.3%. The factory warehouse inventory was 1.41 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%. The total inventory was 4.8 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 4.8% and a year-on-year increase of 8.3%. The inventory of steel billets in Tangshan was 1.16 million tons, the same as the previous value. - **Regional Inventory**: The social inventory of rebar in 132 cities was 4.94 million tons, in East China was 2.57 million tons, in Hangzhou was 720,000 tons, and in Shanghai was 310,000 tons. In South China, it was 440,000 tons, in North China, it was 690,000 tons, in Central China, it was 300,000 tons, in Northwest China, it was 460,000 tons, in Southwest China, it was 420,000 tons, and in Northeast China, it was 350,000 tons. [89][91][94] 3.5 Profit - The cost of hot metal was 2,693 yuan/ton, the blast furnace profit was 7 yuan/ton, and the average profit of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was -24 yuan/ton. The electric furnace profit was -24 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton from last week. The rebar blast furnace profit was 7 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan/ton from last week. [9][39] 3.6 Basis - The lowest warehouse receipt basis was 111 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 3.5%. The 01 basis was 119 yuan/ton, the 05 basis was 135 yuan/ton, and the 10 basis was 101 yuan/ton. [10][20] 3.7 Spread - **Rolled-Rebar Spread**: The rolled-rebar spread in Beijing was 220 yuan/ton, up from last week's 180 yuan/ton. In Shanghai, it was 0 yuan/ton, up from last week's -20 yuan/ton. In Guangzhou, it was -230 yuan/ton, down from last week's -210 yuan/ton. - **North-South Spread**: The Shanghai-Beijing spread was 130 yuan/ton, up from last week's 90 yuan/ton. The Guangzhou-Shanghai spread was 122 yuan/ton, down from last week's 151 yuan/ton. - **Spiral Premium**: The spiral premium in Beijing was 210 yuan/ton, up from last week's 200 yuan/ton. In Shanghai, it was 180 yuan/ton, the same as last week. In Guangzhou, it was 190 yuan/ton, the same as last week. - **Rebar-Billet Spread and Domestic-International Spread**: The price of 20MnSi billet in Tangshan was 3,070 yuan/ton, the aggregated price of rebar HRB400E Φ20 in Beijing was 3,140 yuan/ton, the FOB export price of rebar in China was 447 US dollars/ton, the CFR import price of rebar in Southeast Asia was 470 US dollars/ton, in the United States was 960 US dollars/ton, in the EU was 610 US dollars/ton, and in the Middle East (UAE origin) was 655 US dollars/ton. - **Rebar-Coke Ratio and Rebar-Iron Ore Ratio**: The lowest spot price of rebar was 3,204 yuan/ton, the lowest spot price of coke was 1,438 yuan/ton, and the lowest spot price of iron ore was 892 yuan/ton. [25][28][30][33][36] 3.8 Trading Strategy Suggestion No trading strategy suggestions were provided. [12]