Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market remained weak yesterday, with the prices of finished products showing a weak and volatile trend. Although the short - term market sentiment has improved, the overall fundamentals are still weak, and the futures prices may gradually return to the real - trading logic. The current static fundamental contradictions are not obvious, and the Politburo meeting has no new statements on real estate, so the policy direction is expected to continue the previous strict control of incremental trends. Attention should be paid to the actual repair rhythm of terminal demand and the support strength of the cost side for finished product prices [3]. - The price of iron ore may fluctuate with the prices of downstream products and mainly show a volatile trend. The supply growth is limited, and the port inventory is trending downward. The demand support still exists, but the market divergence remains, and risk control is necessary [6]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, it is recommended that investment positions mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach, while hedging positions can seize opportunities according to their own situations. In the long - term, both may face the situation of weakening marginal demand [9][10]. - The price of industrial silicon may be weak in the short term, and the price of polysilicon may show a high - level volatile trend. The price increase chain of polysilicon needs to be further observed whether it can be smoothly transmitted to the downstream [14][15]. - The prices of glass and soda ash are expected to be volatile in the short term. For glass, if there are substantial real - estate policies, the futures price may continue to rise; for soda ash, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long term [17][18]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position Information**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3204 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.031%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 2394 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 18,068 lots. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased by 20 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3417 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (0.470%). The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 1176 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 17,689 lots. The spot price in Shanghai increased by 20 yuan/ton, while that in Lecong remained unchanged [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The speculative demand for rebar decreased significantly with the price decline, leading to inventory accumulation. The demand for hot - rolled coils increased slightly, the production increased rapidly, and the inventory increased slightly. The current inventory levels of rebar and hot - rolled coils are at the lowest in the past five years [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Information**: The main contract (I2509) of iron ore closed at 798.50 yuan/ton, up 1.01% (+8.00). The positions decreased by 18,144 lots to 384,500 lots. The weighted positions were 945,900 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 780 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 30.53 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.68% [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Situation**: The overseas iron ore shipments decreased month - on - month, with shipments from Australia and Brazil both decreasing. The shipments from non - mainstream countries increased, and the arrivals increased. The daily average pig iron output decreased by 1.52 tons to 240.71 tons. The port inventory decreased month - on - month, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased slightly [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position Information**: On August 5, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) rose 0.77% to close at 6018 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin was 5850 yuan/ton, with a premium of 22 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) rose 0.74% to close at 5716 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin was 5900 yuan/ton, with a premium of 184 yuan/ton over the futures [8][9]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short term, the market sentiment has cooled down, and the prices may fluctuate greatly. In the long - term, both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon may face the situation of weakening marginal demand [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The closing price of the main contract (SI2511) was 8490 yuan/ton, up 1.43% (+120). The weighted positions decreased by 1174 lots to 500,807 lots. The spot prices of different grades decreased. The price may be weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to the support at 8250 yuan/ton [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The closing price of the main contract (PS2511) was 50,330 yuan/ton, up 2.76% (+1350). The weighted positions increased by 18,874 lots to 381,348 lots. The spot prices remained flat. The price may show a high - level volatile trend, and the support levels are 47,000 and 44,000 yuan/ton [14][15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot prices in Shahe remained unchanged, while those in Central China decreased by 30 yuan. The national inventory of float glass decreased. The net short positions decreased. The price may be volatile in the short term, and in the long - term, it depends on real - estate policies and demand [17]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price increased by 10 yuan. The domestic inventory increased, and the downstream demand was tepid. The production was stable, and the output is expected to increase. The price may be volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long term [18].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weakening of US economic data and Trump's stance on the new Fed Chair candidate led to a short - term rebound in precious metal prices [2] - With Trump's pressure on the Fed's monetary policy independence and significantly lower - than - expected employment data, the Fed is likely to implement further loose monetary policies. It is recommended to buy precious metals on dips, with the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold being 777 - 801 yuan/gram and that for Shanghai Silver being 8885 - 9390 yuan/kilogram [3] Group 3: Summary of Key Data Gold - **Futures Prices**: COMEX gold closed at $3434.10 per ounce, down 0.02%; Shanghai gold (Au(T + D)) closed at 779.92 yuan/gram, up 0.56% [2][4] - **ETF Holdings**: SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 1.14 tons to 955.94 tons, up 0.12% [4] - **Market Activity**: COMEX gold trading volume was 15.01 million lots, up 12.93%; open interest was 44.53 million lots, down 9.02% [6] Silver - **Futures Prices**: COMEX silver closed at $37.82 per ounce, down 0.02%; Shanghai silver (Ag(T + D)) closed at 9052 yuan/kilogram, up 0.59% [2][4] - **ETF Holdings**: SLV silver ETF holdings increased by 22.60 tons to 15044.47 tons, up 0.15% [4] - **Market Activity**: COMEX silver trading volume was 45.51 million lots, down 37.61%; open interest was 17.03 million lots, down 1.93% [6] Group 4: Market Factors - **US Economic Data**: The US ISM non - manufacturing PMI in July was 50.1, lower than the expected 51.5 and the previous value of 50.8 [2] - **Trump's Stance**: Trump criticized Powell for not cutting interest rates and said he would soon announce a new Fed Chair candidate, excluding the current Treasury Secretary [2] Group 5: Charts and Their Implications - **Price - Related Charts**: Graphs show the relationship between COMEX gold and silver prices, dollar index, real interest rates, etc., which help analyze the influence of macro - factors on precious metal prices [8][11][12] - **Market Activity Charts**: Charts display the trading volume and open interest of COMEX and Shanghai gold and silver, reflecting market activity [6][9][10][24][27][29] - **Spread Charts**: Tables and graphs present the internal and external price spreads of gold and silver, which are useful for cross - market analysis [54][55][56]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by various factors such as policies, economic data, and supply - demand relationships. Different sectors show different trends, with some expected to be bullish in the short - term, some to be bearish, and others to remain volatile [3][5][8]. - In the macro - financial sector, the policy supports the capital market, but short - term market fluctuations may increase. In the bond market, interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term but may fluctuate in the short - term [3][5]. - In the commodity market, most products are influenced by supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment. Some products are facing supply pressure, while others are affected by demand weakness [8][10][22]. Summaries by Categories Macro - Financial Index Futures - News includes regulatory crackdown on capital market fraud, trading restrictions on some investors, and support for digital infrastructure and manufacturing financing [2]. - The basis ratios of different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH are provided. The market may be volatile in the short - term after previous rises but is still recommended to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - On Tuesday, TL, T, TF, and TS had different price changes. The EU postponed trade counter - measures, and China plans free preschool education. The central bank had a net回笼 of 2885 billion yuan. Interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term with short - term fluctuations [3][4][5]. Precious Metals - Shanghai gold and silver rose, while COMEX gold and silver fell. Weak US economic data and Trump's remarks on the Fed chair candidate led to a short - term rise in precious metals. It is recommended to buy on dips [6]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - LME copper prices fell. LME inventory increased, and domestic copper had different inventory and trading situations. Due to factors like supply and demand and tariffs, the upside of copper prices is limited [8]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices oscillated. Domestic and LME inventories changed, and the market sentiment was neutral. The upside of aluminum prices is restricted by factors such as the off - season and export pressure [9]. Zinc - Zinc prices rose. Zinc ore inventory increased, and production is expected to rise. With weakening support factors, the risk of price decline increases [10]. Lead - Lead prices rose slightly. Supply is relatively loose, and prices are expected to be weak and volatile [11][12]. Nickel - Nickel prices oscillated. Nickel ore supply recovery is slow, and in the context of weak demand, prices are expected to decline. Short - term observation is recommended [13]. Tin - Tin prices rebounded. Supply recovery is expected in the third and fourth quarters, but short - term supply is still tight. Demand is weak, and prices are expected to be weak and volatile [14]. Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium prices fell. There is an expectation of supply - demand repair, but the sustainability of supply reduction is uncertain. Pay attention to market atmosphere changes [15]. Alumina - Alumina prices rose slightly. Supply may still be in an over - capacity situation. It is recommended to short at high prices [16][17]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel prices rose slightly. Social inventory decreased, and the supply of some products is tight. The short - term market is expected to be optimistic [18]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy prices rose. The market is in the off - season, and the upside of prices is limited [19]. Black Building Materials Steel - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices rose. The market sentiment improved, but the overall fundamentals are still weak. Pay attention to demand recovery and cost support [21][22]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices rose. Supply and demand changed, and prices are expected to fluctuate with downstream prices [23][24]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass prices may be volatile in the short - term, and the long - term trend depends on real estate policies. Soda ash prices are expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities in the long - term [25][26]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices rose. Due to high - volatility and irregular price movements, it is recommended that investment positions wait and hedging positions choose opportunities [27]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices rose slightly but are expected to be weak due to supply over - capacity. Polysilicon prices are in high - level oscillation, affected by capacity policies and other factors [31][34]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Rubber prices rebounded after a decline. There are different views on the market from bulls and bears. It is recommended to have a neutral - bullish view and operate quickly [36][40]. Crude Oil - Crude oil prices fell. There is an upward momentum, but the upside is limited by the off - season. A short - term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI is given [41]. Methanol - Methanol prices rose. Supply pressure will increase, and demand is weak. The price is under pressure [42]. Urea - Urea prices rose. It is in a low - valuation and weak - supply - demand pattern, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - positions on dips [43]. Styrene - Styrene prices fell. The BZN spread may repair, and prices may follow the cost side after inventory reduction [44]. PVC - PVC prices rose. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [46]. Ethylene Glycol - EG prices rose. Supply and demand changed, and the inventory is expected to rise. The valuation may decline [47]. PTA - PTA prices fell. Supply may increase, and demand is about to end the off - season. It is recommended to follow PX and go long on dips [49]. Para - Xylene - PX prices fell. It is expected to continue de - stocking. It is recommended to follow crude oil and go long on dips [50]. Polyethylene PE - PE prices rose. The price is affected by cost and supply - demand. It is recommended to hold short - positions [51]. Polypropylene PP - PP prices rose. The cost side may dominate the market, and prices are expected to follow crude oil and be bullish [52]. Agricultural Products Hogs - Hog prices were stable. The market is affected by policies, and it is recommended to focus on spread opportunities [54]. Eggs - Egg prices mostly fell. The supply is large, and it is recommended to short on rebounds in the medium - term and reduce short - positions on dips in the short - term [55]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - US soybeans are in a low - valuation and supply - surplus state. Domestic soybean import costs may rise. It is recommended to go long on dips and do spread trading between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [56][57][58]. Oils - Palm oil exports and production data are provided. The oil market is supported by multiple factors but is also restricted by some factors. It is recommended to view it with oscillation [59][61]. Sugar - Sugar prices were weak and oscillated. With increasing imports and other factors, prices may continue to fall [62][63]. Cotton - Cotton prices were narrowly oscillated. The US cotton growth situation is good, and the market is bearish due to factors like weak consumption and un - settled trade agreements [64].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside, and a short - term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI is given [2]. - Methanol is currently over - valued, with supply pressure increasing and demand weakening, and its price faces pressure [4]. - Urea is in a pattern of low valuation and weak supply - demand. The current price is not high, and the continued decline space is limited. It is advisable to pay attention to long - allocation opportunities on dips [6]. - For rubber, after a significant decline, the price rebounded. A neutral - to - bullish short - term trading strategy is recommended, and a long - RU2601 and short - RU2509 band operation can be considered [9]. - PVC has a poor fundamental situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. - For styrene, the short - term BZN spread is expected to repair, and after the high - level port inventory is reduced, the price may follow the cost to fluctuate upward [14]. - Polyethylene price will be determined by the game between cost and supply in the short term, and it is recommended to hold short positions [17]. - Polypropylene price is expected to fluctuate strongly following crude oil in July, with cost leading the market [18]. - PX is expected to continue de - stocking, and short - term opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil can be focused on [21]. - PTA is expected to continue accumulating inventory, and attention can be paid to long - position opportunities on dips following PX [22]. - Ethylene glycol's fundamental situation will change from strong to weak, and its short - term valuation has downward pressure [23]. Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures fell $1.07, or 1.62%, to $65.17; Brent main crude oil futures fell $1.00, or 1.46%, to $67.68; INE main crude oil futures fell 5.50 yuan, or 1.07%, to 508.8 yuan [1]. - **Inventory Data**: In Fujeirah port, gasoline inventory increased by 0.43 million barrels to 7.30 million barrels, a 6.32% increase; diesel inventory decreased by 0.55 million barrels to 1.89 million barrels, a 22.58% decrease; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.98 million barrels to 9.70 million barrels, an 11.24% increase; total refined oil inventory increased by 0.86 million barrels to 18.90 million barrels, a 4.78% increase [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 5, the 09 contract rose 7 yuan/ton to 2397 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 2 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 27 [4]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply - side corporate profits are still high, and the start - up rate is gradually bottoming out and rising, increasing supply pressure. Demand - side port olefins are shut down, and it is the traditional demand off - season, so the overall demand is weak. Port inventories are accelerating accumulation, and the basis and inter - month spreads are continuously declining [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 5, the 09 contract rose 39 yuan/ton to 1772 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 12 [6]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply has decreased slightly but is still at a relatively high level year - on - year. Corporate profits are poor, and the start - up rate is expected to gradually increase. Demand - side export docking is less than expected, domestic agricultural demand is entering the off - season, and compound fertilizer production for autumn fertilizers has started, with enterprises actively building inventories and finished product inventories further increasing [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Industrial products rose collectively. NR and RU rebounded significantly after a decline [8]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Tire factory start - up rates decreased month - on - month. As of July 30, 2025, the full - steel tire start - up load of Shandong tire enterprises was 61.06%, down 3.94 percentage points from the previous week but up 4.63 percentage points from the same period last year; the semi - steel tire start - up load was 74.63%, down 0.87 percentage points from the previous week and down 4.23 percentage points from the same period last year. As of July 27, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 129.3 tons, a 0.4% increase month - on - month [9]. - **Operation Suggestion**: A neutral - to - bullish short - term trading strategy is recommended, and a long - RU2601 and short - RU2509 band operation can be considered [9]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 61 yuan to 5042 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4890 (+30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 152 (- 31) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 135 (+2) yuan/ton [11]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The overall start - up rate of PVC was 76.8%, up 0.05% month - on - month. The demand - side overall downstream start - up rate was 42.1%, up 0.2% month - on - month. Factory inventories were 34.5 tons (1.2), and social inventories were 72.2 tons (+3.9). The enterprise's comprehensive profit has risen to a high point this year, the maintenance volume is gradually decreasing, and the production is at a five - year high. The domestic downstream start - up rate is at a five - year low, and India's anti - dumping policy has been extended [11]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot and futures prices both declined, and the basis weakened [13]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The cost - side support still exists, the BZN spread is at a relatively low level in the same period and has a large upward repair space. The cost - side pure benzene start - up rate has declined slightly, and the supply is still abundant. The supply - side ethylbenzene dehydrogenation profit has increased, and the styrene start - up rate has continued to rise. Styrene port inventories have continued to decline significantly, and the demand - side three - S overall start - up rate has fluctuated and increased during the seasonal off - season [14]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose. The main contract closed at 7323 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton, the spot price was 7240 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was - 83 yuan/ton, weakening 44 yuan/ton [17]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and the cost - side support still exists. The trade - inventory is oscillating at a high level, and the demand - side agricultural film orders are oscillating at a low level. The short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - led decline to high - maintenance - driven inventory reduction. There is a large production capacity release pressure in August, with a planned production capacity release of 1.1 million tons [17]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose. The main contract closed at 7095 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton, the spot price was 7125 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was 30 yuan/ton, weakening 21 yuan/ton [18]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the start - up rate is expected to gradually recover. The demand - side downstream start - up rate has declined seasonally. There is only a planned production capacity release of 450,000 tons in August. In the context of weak supply and demand during the seasonal off - season, the cost will dominate the market, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly following crude oil in July [18]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 20 yuan to 6734 yuan, the PX CFR rose 1 dollar to 839 dollars, and the basis was 167 yuan (+25), with the 9 - 1 spread at 28 yuan (+2) [20]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The PX load remains at a high level, and the short - term maintenance of downstream PTA has increased, with the overall load center declining, which suppresses the valuation rhythm. However, the current PTA inventory level is low, and the polyester and terminal start - up rates are about to end the off - season, so the short - term negative feedback pressure on PX is still small. Recently, new PTA plants have been put into operation, and PX is expected to continue de - stocking [21]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 16 yuan to 4682 yuan, the East China spot price fell 30 yuan to 4660 yuan, the basis was - 19 yuan (- 4), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 40 yuan (- 6) [22]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply - side maintenance has increased in August, but new plants have been put into operation, and it is expected to continue accumulating inventory. The demand - side polyester fiber inventory pressure has decreased, and downstream and terminal start - up rates are about to end the off - season. The valuation is currently at a neutral level [22]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 10 yuan to 4399 yuan, the East China spot price rose 8 yuan to 4463 yuan, the basis was 79 yuan (+1), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 27 (+1) [23]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply - side ethylene glycol start - up rate was 68.6%, down 0.7% month - on - month. The downstream start - up rate was 88.1%, down 0.6% month - on - month. Import arrival forecasts are 138,000 tons, and port inventories decreased by 500 tons. The overseas device load is at a high level, and the arrival volume is expected to gradually increase, with inventories rising from a low level. The short - term valuation has downward pressure [23].

金融期权 2025-08-05 金融期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | （1）股市短评：上证综指数、大盘蓝筹股、中小盘股和创业板股表现为高位震荡的市场行情。 表2：期权标的ETF市场概况 | 标的 | 标的合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 成交额 | 额变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （%） | (万份) | | (亿元) | | | 上证50ETF | 510050.SH | 2.890 | 0.014 | 0.49 | 479.90 | 471.66 | 13.83 | -9.91 | | 上证300ETF | 510300.SH | 4.152 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural products sector is mainly divided into beans, oils, agricultural by - products, soft commodities, grains, and others. The overall market shows different trends, with oilseeds and oils in a relatively strong and volatile state, oils and agricultural by - products in a volatile trend, soft commodity sugar slightly fluctuating, cotton's upward trend weakening, and grains such as corn and starch in a weak and narrow - range consolidation. It is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2][8] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Different agricultural product futures show various price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, the latest price of soybean No.1 (A2509) is 4,133, up 7 with a 0.17% increase, trading volume of 11.13 million lots, and open interest of 11.04 million lots. While the price of eggs (JD2509) is 3,360, down 141 with a 4.03% decrease, trading volume of 30.84 million lots, and open interest of 23.20 million lots [3] 3.2 Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Volume and open interest PCR are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the market. For example, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 is 0.59, up 0.18, and the open interest PCR is 0.39, up 0.01, indicating the market situation of soybean No.1 [4] 3.3 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of the exercise prices with the largest open interest of call and put options, the pressure and support levels of the option underlying are analyzed. For instance, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 4,300 and the support level is 4,050 [5] 3.4 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility includes at - the - money implied volatility and weighted implied volatility. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 8.715, and the weighted implied volatility is 12.19, down 1.39 [6] 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations 3.5.1 Oils and Oilseeds Options - **Soybean No.1 and No.2**: Based on the analysis of fundamentals such as the US soybean good rate and Brazilian soybean premiums, and considering option factors like implied volatility and open interest PCR, strategies include constructing a neutral short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7] - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: Analyzing fundamentals such as daily提货量 and basis, and option factors, strategies involve constructing a neutral short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9] - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: Considering fundamentals like Malaysian palm oil production and exports, and option factors, strategies include constructing a long - biased short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] - **Peanuts**: Given the fundamentals of the peanut oil market and option factors, strategies include constructing a bear spread strategy for put options and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] 3.5.2 Agricultural By - product Options - **Pigs**: Based on fundamentals such as average slaughter weight and frozen product inventory rate, and option factors, strategies include constructing a short - biased short call + put option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [11] - **Eggs**: Considering fundamentals like laying hen inventory and option factors, strategies include constructing a bear spread strategy for put options, a short - biased short call + put option combination strategy [12] - **Apples**: Analyzing fundamentals such as expected apple production and option factors, strategies include constructing a neutral short call + put option combination strategy [12] - **Red Dates**: Based on fundamentals like inventory and option factors, strategies include constructing a short - biased wide - straddle option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [13] 3.5.3 Soft Commodity Options - **Sugar**: Considering fundamentals such as Brazilian sugar shipping and production forecasts, and option factors, strategies include constructing a neutral short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13] - **Cotton**: Based on fundamentals like spinning and weaving factory operating rates and cotton inventory, and option factors, strategies include constructing a long - biased short call + put option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [14] 3.5.4 Grain Options - **Corn and Starch**: Given fundamentals such as new corn listing and market sentiment, and option factors, strategies include constructing a bear spread strategy for put options and a short - biased short call + put option combination strategy [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector includes energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. Strategies suggest constructing option portfolios mainly on the short - selling side, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The table shows the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various energy - chemical futures contracts. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2509) is 510, down 7 with a decline of 1.28%, trading volume of 14.58 million lots, and open interest of 2.82 million lots [4]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The PCR indicators for volume and open interest of different energy - chemical options are presented. These indicators help describe the strength of the option underlying market and potential turning points. For instance, the volume PCR of crude oil options is 0.89 with a change of - 0.12, and the open - interest PCR is 0.75 with a change of - 0.10 [5]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of different energy - chemical options are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of crude oil is 640 and the support level is 480 [6]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of various energy - chemical options are provided, including at - the - money implied volatility and volume - weighted implied volatility. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil options is 30.835, and the weighted implied volatility is 34.67 with a change of - 1.69 [7]. 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations 3.5.1 Energy - related Options - **Crude Oil**: The US crude oil inventories have increased. The market showed a short - term upward trend followed by a decline last week. Implied volatility is around the average. Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - neutral call + put option combination; Spot long - hedging strategy: Build a long - collar strategy [8]. - **LPG**: Factory and port inventories are at high levels. The market is short - oriented in the short term. Implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level. Similar to crude oil, it has corresponding strategies for volatility and spot long - hedging [10]. 3.5.2 Alcohol - related Options - **Methanol**: Production enterprise inventories and orders have decreased. The market is weak with pressure above. Implied volatility is around the average. Strategies include short - neutral option combinations and long - collar hedging [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The overall operating rate is stable, but production profits are under pressure. The market shows a narrow - range volatile pattern. Strategies involve short - selling volatility and long - collar hedging [11]. 3.5.3 Polyolefin - related Options - **Polypropylene**: The number of maintenance production lines has decreased, and production has increased. The market is weak with upward pressure. Strategies include long - collar hedging [11]. 3.5.4 Rubber - related Options - **Rubber**: The opening area and output in Hainan have decreased. The market is in a short - term downward trend. Strategies involve short - neutral option combinations [12]. 3.5.5 Polyester - related Options - **PTA**: Factory inventories are accumulating, and price rebound is restricted. The market shows a slight upward trend with pressure. Strategies include short - neutral option combinations [13]. 3.5.6 Alkali - related Options - **Caustic Soda**: The average utilization rate of production capacity has slightly decreased. The market is volatile with pressure. Strategies include long - collar hedging [14]. - **Soda Ash**: Inventories are at a high level. The market has experienced a significant decline after a rise. Strategies include short - selling volatility and long - collar hedging [14]. 3.5.7 Other Options - **Urea**: Supply is slightly decreasing, and demand is weak. The market is volatile under short - term pressure. Strategies include short - bearish option combinations and long - collar hedging [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For non - ferrous metals, construct a neutral volatility strategy for sellers when the market is oscillating; for black metals, build a short - volatility portfolio strategy after significant price fluctuations; for precious metals, construct a spot hedging strategy during high - level consolidation [2] 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The latest prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various metal futures contracts such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. are presented. For example, the latest price of copper (CU2509) is 78,370, with a price increase of 150 and a price change percentage of 0.19% [3] 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Volume PCR and open interest PCR are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively. The volume and open interest PCR values of various metal options, as well as their changes, are provided [4] 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of option underlying assets are determined by the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. The pressure and support levels of various metal options are presented, such as the pressure level of copper being 82,000 and the support level being 75,000 [5] 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of various metal options are provided, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, its change, annual average, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility [6] 3.5 Strategies and Recommendations 3.5.1 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 21,000 tons month - on - month. The market has been in a high - level consolidation pattern since June. Implied volatility fluctuates around the historical average, and the open interest PCR indicates pressure above. Strategies include constructing a short - volatility seller option portfolio and a spot long - hedging strategy [7] - **Aluminum/Alumina**: The domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased, and the market showed a pattern of rising and then falling. Implied volatility fluctuates around the historical average, and the open interest PCR indicates increasing pressure above. Strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination and a spot collar strategy [9] - **Zinc/Lead**: The zinc ore inventory continued to accumulate, and the zinc market showed a pattern of rising and then falling. The implied volatility of zinc options continued to rise above the historical average, and the open interest PCR indicates increasing pressure above. Strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination and a spot collar strategy [9] - **Nickel**: The nickel ore price was weak due to increased supply and weak demand. The market showed a wide - range oscillation pattern. The implied volatility of nickel options remained at a relatively high historical level, and the open interest PCR indicates increasing short - selling power. Strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination and a spot long - hedging strategy [10] - **Tin**: The tin ingot inventory increased slightly, and the market showed a short - term weak oscillation pattern. The implied volatility of tin options remained at a relatively high historical level, and the open interest PCR indicates range - bound oscillation. Strategies include constructing a short - volatility strategy and a spot collar strategy [10] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The inventory decreased, and the market showed a pattern of large fluctuations. The implied volatility of lithium carbonate options rose rapidly to a relatively high level, and the open interest PCR indicates continuous weakness. Strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination and a spot long - hedging strategy [11] 3.5.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The US economic data was resilient, and the gold market showed a short - term weak oscillation pattern. The implied volatility of gold options fluctuated around the historical average, and the open interest PCR indicates weakening. Strategies include constructing a neutral short - volatility seller option portfolio and a spot hedging strategy [12] 3.5.3 Black Metals - **Rebar**: The inventory increased slightly, and the market showed an upward oscillation pattern with pressure above. The implied volatility of rebar options fluctuated at a relatively high historical level, and the open interest PCR indicates strong short - selling pressure above. Strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination and a spot long - covered call strategy [13] - **Iron Ore**: The port inventory decreased, and the market showed a bullish oscillation pattern. The implied volatility of iron ore options fluctuated above the historical average, and the open interest PCR indicates a recent upward trend. Strategies include a bullish call spread strategy, constructing a long - biased call + put option combination, and a spot long - collar strategy [13] - **Ferroalloys**: The manganese silicon inventory decreased but remained at a high level, and the market showed a pattern of rising and then falling sharply. The implied volatility of manganese silicon options rose rapidly to a relatively high historical level, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak market under short - selling pressure. Strategies include constructing a short - volatility strategy [14] - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon**: The industrial silicon inventory remained at a high level, and the market showed a pattern of large fluctuations. The implied volatility of industrial silicon options gradually rose to a relatively high historical level, and the open interest PCR indicates a stable market. Strategies include constructing a short - volatility call + put option combination and a spot hedging strategy [14] - **Glass**: The factory inventory decreased, and the market showed a pattern of rising and then falling sharply. The implied volatility of glass options remained at a relatively high historical level, and the open interest PCR indicates an upward trend. Strategies include constructing a short - volatility call + put option combination and a spot long - collar strategy [15]

Report Investment Ratings The provided content does not include industry investment ratings. Core Views - The overall market shows a mixed picture, with different sectors facing various opportunities and challenges. Policy factors, supply - demand dynamics, and seasonal trends are key determinants of price movements in different industries [3][5][23] - In the short - term, the market may experience fluctuations due to factors such as policy expectations, overseas interest rate decisions, and seasonal demand changes. Over the long - term, fundamental factors like supply - demand balance and cost support will play a more significant role [5][25][31] Summary by Category Macro - Financial Index Futures - News includes Shanghai's support for enterprise basic research, progress in AIDS vaccine R & D, and overseas stock trading tax regulations [2] - The central government's supportive attitude towards the capital market remains, but short - term market adjustments occurred due to overseas factors and large short - term A - share gains. The general strategy is to go long on dips [3] Treasury Bonds - Tuesday's market saw some changes in contract prices. Central bank liquidity operations and relevant regulations in Hong Kong were announced [4] - The economy showed resilience in the first half, but July PMI was lower than expected. The central bank maintains a supportive attitude towards funds, and interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term with short - term oscillations [4][5] Precious Metals - Prices of gold and silver rose. The dovish statement of a Fed official increased the probability of a larger - scale interest rate cut, supporting precious metal prices [6] - It is recommended to buy on dips, with specific price ranges provided for Shanghai gold and silver contracts [7] Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - EU trade measures and weak US non - farm data led to a copper price rebound. LME and domestic inventories showed different trends [9] - Supply is tight, but the upside of copper prices is limited in the off - season. Specific price ranges are given for Shanghai and London copper [9] Aluminum - Domestic inventory accumulation and unclear overseas trade situations caused aluminum price oscillations. LME and domestic inventories changed [10] - Aluminum prices may continue to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with price ranges for domestic and London aluminum provided [10] Zinc - Zinc prices declined. Zinc ore inventory increased, and refined zinc production is expected to rise. Downstream consumption weakened [11] - The risk of zinc price decline is expected to increase [11] Lead - Lead prices rose slightly. Lead ore inventory decreased, and supply is relatively loose. Domestic inventory increased slightly [12] - Lead prices are expected to oscillate weakly [13] Nickel - Nickel prices rebounded slightly. Nickel ore supply recovery is slow, and downstream demand is weak [14] - It is recommended to hold short positions or short on rallies, with price ranges for Shanghai and London nickel provided [14] Tin - Tin prices oscillated narrowly. Supply recovery is expected in the third and fourth quarters, but short - term supply is tight. Domestic demand is weak, while overseas demand is strong [15] - Tin prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with price ranges provided [15] Carbonate Lithium - The spot index was flat. Weekend non - mine disturbances had a short - term impact on the contract. The supply - demand relationship may improve, but the sustainability of supply reduction needs to be observed [16] - Speculative funds are advised to wait and see, and holders can choose appropriate entry points. A price range for the contract is given [16] Alumina - The index rose. Supply contraction policies need further observation, and the over - capacity situation may persist [17][18] - It is recommended to short on rallies, with a price range for the domestic contract provided [18] Stainless Steel - The price rose. Social inventory decreased slightly, and the supply of some products was tight [19] - The short - term market is expected to be optimistic, with prices oscillating strongly [19] Casting Aluminum Alloy - The contract price rose slightly. The market was light, and inventory decreased [20] - The price rebound space is limited due to the off - season and weak supply - demand [20] Black Building Materials Steel - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices showed different trends. The overall market was weak, and export competitiveness declined [22][23] - The fundamentals are still weak, and the price may return to the real - world trading logic. Attention should be paid to terminal demand and cost support [23] Iron Ore - The price rose. Overseas shipments decreased, and demand was affected by individual steel mills. Port inventory decreased [24][25] - The price is expected to oscillate following downstream prices, and risk control is necessary [25] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass prices fell, and the market was bearish. Soda ash prices were stable, and inventory increased [26][27] - Glass prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short - term, and soda ash prices are expected to oscillate. Long - term opportunities for shorting soda ash are recommended [26][27] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Prices showed different trends. The market was volatile, and the fundamentals of both are expected to weaken [28][29][30] - Investment positions are advised to wait and see, while hedging positions can be considered [28] Industrial Silicon - The price fell. Supply is excessive, and demand is insufficient. The impact of market sentiment has declined [32][33] - The price is expected to be weak in the short - term, and attention should be paid to new policy narratives [33] Polysilicon - The price fell. The market was affected by capacity integration expectations and corporate price - holding strategies [34][35] - The price is expected to oscillate widely, and caution is advised [35] Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Prices rebounded after a decline. The market has different views on supply and demand. Tire factory开工率 decreased, and inventory increased [37][38] - A neutral strategy is recommended, and a spread trading strategy is suggested [41] Crude Oil - Prices fell. Chinese oil inventory data showed different trends. The market has upward momentum but is limited by the off - season [42] - A short - term long strategy with a target price is recommended, and long positions can be considered for September geopolitical and hurricane factors [42] Methanol - The price fell. Supply pressure is expected to increase, and demand is weak. Port inventory is accumulating [43] - The price is under pressure due to high valuation and weakening supply - demand [43] Urea - The price rose. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. The price decline space is limited [44] - The price volatility is expected to decline after the market sentiment cools down [44] Styrene - The spot price was stable, and the futures price fell. Cost support exists, and the BZN spread may repair [45] - The price is expected to rise following the cost after port inventory reduction [45] PVC - The price fell. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and the valuation is high. Export needs to be observed [47] - The price fell after the "anti - involution" sentiment faded [47] Ethylene Glycol - The price fell. Supply decreased slightly, and demand was weak. Inventory decreased slightly [48] - The fundamentals are expected to weaken, and the valuation may decline [48] PTA - The price fell. Supply may increase, and demand is about to end the off - season. Inventory is expected to accumulate [49] - Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long with PX [49] p - Xylene - The price fell. Supply increased, and demand decreased slightly. Inventory is expected to decrease [50] - The valuation is neutral, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long with crude oil [50] Polyethylene - The price fell. Cost support exists, and inventory is high. Supply pressure will increase in August [51] - It is recommended to hold short positions [51] Polypropylene - The price fell. Supply and demand are weak in the off - season, and the price may follow crude oil [52] Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Pig prices mostly fell. Policy intervention in capacity reduction affected the market. Attention should be paid to spread trading opportunities [54] Eggs - Egg prices mostly fell. Supply is sufficient, and demand is weak. The market is expected to be stable with some weakness [55] - Short - term short positions can be reduced, and medium - term shorting after a rebound is recommended [55] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - US soybean prices oscillated, and domestic soybean meal prices rose slightly. US soybean supply is abundant, while domestic import costs may rise [56] - A strategy of going long on dips and spread trading is recommended [57] Oils - Palm oil export data showed different trends, and production increased. The market is supported by policies and low inventory [58][59][60] - The price is expected to oscillate, with potential for an increase in the fourth quarter [61] Sugar - Sugar prices fell. Brazilian and Indian sugar production is expected to increase, and import supply is increasing [62][63] - The price is likely to continue to fall [63] Cotton - Cotton prices rebounded slightly. Downstream consumption is weak, and inventory reduction has slowed down [64] - The short - term trend is bearish [64]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is in a state of low valuation and oversupply, with no clear directional driver. The domestic soybean import cost is rising slightly due to a single - supply source. The soybean meal market is mixed with long and short factors [2][4]. - The fundamentals support the central price of oils and fats. However, the current high valuation limits the upward space, and the market should be viewed as volatile [9]. - The price of white sugar futures is expected to continue to decline, given factors such as increased imports and expected growth in domestic planting area [11][12]. - The cotton market is bearish in the short - term, with weak downstream consumption and a slowdown in inventory reduction [14][15]. - The egg market has an oversupply situation. In the short - term, short - position holders can reduce positions, and in the medium - term, short - selling after a rebound is advisable [17][18]. - The pig market is in the process of restructuring, with more attention on the opportunities of the spread between different contract months [21]. 3. Summaries by Category Soybean/Meal - **Important Information**: On Monday night, the US soybeans rebounded. The US - China trade negotiation has not provided benefits for US soybean exports. The domestic soybean meal inventory decreased slightly last week due to good apparent consumption and reduced crushing volume. The US soybean production area is expected to have slightly less rainfall in the next two weeks, and the Brazilian soybean planting area in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase [2][7]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on soybean meal at the low end of the cost range and pay attention to the crushing profit and supply pressure at the high end. For arbitrage, consider expanding the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal 09 contracts [4]. Oils and Fats - **Important Information**: Malaysia's palm oil export data shows a decline trend in June. In July, Malaysia's palm oil production increased. India's palm oil imports in July decreased by 10% month - on - month. The domestic spot basis of oils and fats is stable at a low level [6][8]. - **Trading Strategy**: The fundamentals support the central price of oils and fats. Palm oil may maintain stable inventory in the 7 - 9 months and has a rising expectation in the fourth quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy. However, the current high valuation restricts the upward space, and the market should be viewed as volatile [9]. White Sugar - **Important Information**: On Monday, the Zhengzhou white sugar futures price continued to fall. The sugar production in the central and southern regions of Brazil in the first half of July increased by 15.07% year - on - year, and India's net sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price of Zhengzhou white sugar futures is likely to continue to decline, considering factors such as increased imports and expected growth in domestic planting area [12]. Cotton - **Important Information**: On Monday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rebounded slightly. The downstream开机率 is at a low level, and the cotton inventory decreased last week [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: The cotton market is bearish in the short - term, with weak downstream consumption and a slowdown in inventory reduction [15]. Eggs - **Important Information**: The national egg price mostly fell, with sufficient supply and slow market digestion. The egg price may be stable in most areas and weak in a few areas today [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short - term, short - position holders can reduce positions, and in the medium - term, short - selling after a rebound is advisable, considering the large supply and market expectations [18]. Pigs - **Important Information**: The domestic pig price mainly fell yesterday, with some areas rising slightly. After the continuous decline of pig prices, farmers are reluctant to sell, and the pig price may stabilize today [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: The market is trading on the policy's intervention in capacity reduction. The spread between different contract months should be focused on, with more uncertainty in the single - side trading [21].