1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term weakness in the sugar market is expected, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - It is currently estimated that the sugar production of major sugar - producing countries will increase in the new crushing season, and the global supply - demand relationship will change from shortage to surplus. International sugar prices may not improve significantly until the first quarter of next year. With the continuous opening of the profit window for out - of - quota imports in China, the overall view is bearish. However, domestic sugar prices are at a relatively low level, making it more difficult for the long - and short - side to compete, and the probability of a trending market is also lower. Therefore, short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [9] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: In the external market, the raw sugar price rebounded this week. As of Friday, the closing price of the ICE raw sugar March contract was reported at 15.1 cents per pound, up 0.28 cents per pound from the previous week, a rise of 1.89%. In terms of spreads, the raw sugar 3 - 5 spread was reported at 0.41 cents per pound, unchanged from the previous week; the London white sugar 3 - 5 spread was reported at $3.2 per ton, up $0.5 per ton from the previous week; the raw - white spread of the March contract was reported at $96 per ton, down $3 per ton from the previous week. In the domestic market, the Zhengzhou sugar price fluctuated this week. As of Friday, the closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar May contract was reported at 5,214 yuan per ton, down 19 yuan per ton from the previous week, a decline of 0.36%. The spot price in Guangxi was reported at 5,340 yuan per ton, down 20 yuan per ton from the previous week; the basis was reported at 51 yuan per ton, up 1 yuan per ton from the previous week; the 1 - 5 spread was reported at 106 yuan per ton, up 36 yuan per ton from the previous week; the out - of - quota spot import profit was reported at 518 yuan per ton, down 69 yuan per ton from the previous week [9] - **Industry News**: Analysis agency Green Pool expects Thailand's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season to increase by 6% year - on - year to 10.7 million tons. But in the 2026/27 crushing season, sugar production may decrease to 9.9 million tons due to the conversion of sugarcane to cassava. According to data from the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories of India (NFCSF), as of November 30, 2025, India had crushed 48.6 million tons of sugarcane, a year - on - year increase of 15.2 million tons; sugar production was 4.135 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.375 million tons; as of the end of November, the average sugar yield was 8.51%, a year - on - year increase of 0.24 percentage points. Data released by Brazilian shipping agency Williams showed that in the week ending December 10, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 44, compared with 53 in the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded at ports was 1.5131 million tons, a 17.14% decrease from 1.826 million tons in the previous week [9] - **Viewpoints and Strategies**: As mentioned above, short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [9] 3.2. Spread Trend Review - The report presents multiple spread - related charts, including those for spot prices and basis (such as Guangxi Nanning first - grade white sugar price trend and basis between Guangxi Nanning spot and Zhengzhou sugar main - contract), spot - to - spot spreads (e.g., refined sugar basis and production - sales area spread), domestic futures spreads (e.g., Zhengzhou sugar 1 - 5 spread and 5 - 9 spread), internal - external spreads (e.g., out - of - quota spot and futures import profits), raw - white spreads, raw sugar spot premiums and discounts, and sugar - alcohol price ratios. These charts show the spread trends from 2021 to 2025 [17][20][25] 3.3. Domestic Market Situation - **National Production**: The report shows the monthly and cumulative sugar production in China from 20/21 to 24/25 through charts [40] - **Sugar Imports**: It presents the monthly and annual cumulative sugar imports, as well as the monthly and annual cumulative imports of syrup and premixed powder in China from 20/21 to 24/25 through charts [43] - **National Sales**: The monthly sugar sales volume and cumulative production - sales progress in China from 20/21 to 24/25 are shown through charts [48] - **National Industrial Inventory**: The monthly industrial inventory in China from 2021 to 2025 and the Guangxi three - party warehouse inventory from 20/21 to 24/25 are presented through charts [51] 3.4. International Market Situation - **Brazilian Central - South Production**: The report shows the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production, cumulative sugar - making ratio from sugarcane, and cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in Brazil's Central - South region from 21/22 to 25/26 through charts [56] - **Indian Production**: The bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production in India from 20/21 to 24/25 are presented through charts [61] - **Thai Production**: The bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production in Thailand from 20/21 to 24/25 are shown through charts [64] - **Brazilian Shipment Volume**: The sugar inventory in Brazil's Central - South region from 2022 to 2025 and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports from 21/22 to 25/26 are presented through charts [67]

徐绍祖（联系人） 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号： Z0022675 盘面交易估值逻辑， 持续做多EB-BZ价差 苯乙烯周报 从业资格号：F03115061 2025/12/13 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 成本端 02 期现市场 05 供给端 03 利润库存 06 需求端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 纯苯&苯乙烯周度策略 【行情资讯】 政策端：美联储降息符合预期，对市场释放一定流动性，但不属于"QE"范畴，全球货币政策偏宽，资本市场反应温和，大宗 商品涨跌各现。 估值：苯乙烯周度跌幅（成本＞现货＞期货），基差走强，BZN价差上涨，EB非一体化装置利润上涨。 成本端：上周华东纯苯现货价格下跌-0.38%，纯苯期货活跃合约价格下跌-0.40%，纯苯基差上涨2元/吨，纯苯开工率高位震荡。 供应端：EB产能利用率67.29%，环比下降-2.41%，同比去年下降-3.73%，较5年同期下降-11.81%。苯乙烯非一体化利润修复， 开工率随之上升。 进出口：10月国内纯苯进口量为496.77万吨，环比上涨14.18%，同比去年上涨14. ...

02 期现市场 05 成本和利润 03 供应端 06 库存端 反弹抛空 鸡蛋周报 2025/12/13 028-86133280 wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 王 俊 （农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 需求端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 现货端：上周国内蛋价冲高后走稳或小幅回落，周初下游入市采购增多，行情回暖，但由于供应依旧充裕，蛋价涨幅有限，周内淘鸡先增后 减，鸡龄小幅下滑；具体看，黑山大码蛋价周涨0.1元至2.9元/斤，周内最低2.8元/斤，馆陶周涨0.09元至2.69/斤，周内最低2.6元/斤，销 区回龙观周涨0.06元至3.18元/斤，东莞周涨0.08元至2.91元/斤；在产存栏维持高位，中小码占比有所减少，整体供应压力一般，下游按需 拿货，短期需求难再增，预计下周蛋价小跌后走稳。 ◆ 补栏和淘汰：受蛋价弱势以及养殖亏损的影响，市场补栏情绪延续低迷，因季节性因素，11月份补栏环比小幅增加1%，为7910万只，同比下 降幅度达13.4%；蛋价反弹无力，养殖亏损扩大，市场淘鸡情绪延续积极， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Lead ore inventory remains basically flat, primary lead smelting operating rate declines marginally, lead scrap inventory drops slightly, secondary lead smelting operating rate continues to rise, and downstream battery manufacturers' operating rate increases marginally. China's lead ingot social inventory stays at a relatively low level, upstream factory inventory declines marginally, but the monthly spread of SHFE lead remains low. With the ebbing of non - ferrous metal sentiment and low positions in SHFE lead, lead prices are expected to run weakly in a wide range in the short term [11] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: Last Friday, the SHFE lead index closed down 0.14% at 17,134 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 76,000 lots. As of 15:00 last Friday, LME lead 3S dropped 4.5 to 1,984.5 dollars/ton compared to the same period the previous day, with a total position of 170,100 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingot was 17,025 yuan/ton, the average price of secondary refined lead was 17,000 yuan/ton, the refined - scrap spread was 25 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,925 yuan/ton [11] - **Domestic Structure**: According to Steel Union data, China's social lead inventory increased slightly by 0.13 tons to 22,900 tons. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 16,700 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 140 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - month contract was - 75 yuan/ton. **Overseas Structure**: LME lead ingot inventory was 235,500 tons, and LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 110,000 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 48.25 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 99.2 dollars/ton. **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen SHFE - LME ratio was 1.225, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was 297.67 yuan/ton [11] - **Industry Data**: At the primary end, lead concentrate port inventory was 34,000 tons, factory inventory was 471,000 tons, equivalent to 31.5 days. The lead concentrate import TC was - 135 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic lead concentrate TC was 300 yuan/metal ton. The primary lead smelting operating rate was 65.52%, and the primary lead ingot factory inventory was 13,000 tons. At the secondary end, lead scrap inventory was 98,000 tons, the weekly output of secondary lead ingots was 47,000 tons, and the secondary lead ingot factory inventory was 8,000 tons. At the demand end, the lead - acid battery operating rate was 74.64% [11] 2. Primary Supply - **Imports**: In October 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 98,300 physical tons, a year - on - year change of - 39.7% and a month - on - month change of - 34.6%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of lead concentrate was 1.1673 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 14.0%. In October 2025, the net import of silver concentrate was 149,400 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 11.4% and a month - on - month change of - 7.0%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of silver concentrate was 1.5079 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.4% [15] - **Domestic Production**: In November 2025, China's lead concentrate output was 136,600 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 0.8% and a month - on - month change of - 6.6%. From January to November, the total lead concentrate output was 1.5319 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.4%. In October 2025, the net import of lead - containing ores was 118,700 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 21.6% and a month - on - month change of - 23.2%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ores was 1.3035 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 9.9% [17] - **Total Supply**: In October 2025, China's total lead concentrate supply was 264,900 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 6.6% and a month - on - month change of - 13.4%. From January to October, the cumulative lead concentrate supply was 2.6988 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.7%. In September 2025, the global lead ore output was 392,800 tons, a year - on - year change of - 2.1% and a month - on - month change of 2.4%. From January to September, the total global lead ore output was 3.4021 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.5% [19] - **Inventory and Processing Fees**: At the primary end, lead concentrate port inventory was 34,000 tons, factory inventory was 471,000 tons, equivalent to 31.5 days. The lead concentrate import TC was - 135 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic lead concentrate TC was 300 yuan/metal ton [21][23] - **Smelting Operating Rate and Output**: The primary lead smelting operating rate was 65.52%, and the primary lead ingot factory inventory was 13,000 tons. In November 2025, China's primary lead output was 327,600 tons, a year - on - year change of - 1.6% and a month - on - month change of 0.5%. From January to November, the total primary lead ingot output was 3.5145 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 6.8% [26] 3. Secondary Supply - **Raw Materials and Weekly Output**: At the secondary end, lead scrap inventory was 98,000 tons. The weekly output of secondary lead ingots was 47,000 tons, and the secondary lead ingot factory inventory was 8,000 tons. In November 2025, China's secondary lead output was 373,300 tons, a year - on - year change of 16.8% and a month - on - month change of 7.8%. From January to November, the total secondary lead ingot output was 3.6084 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.0% [31][33] - **Imports and Total Supply**: In October 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 15,100 tons, a year - on - year change of 92.6% and a month - on - month change of 21.9%. From January to October, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 95,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 43.5%. In October 2025, the total domestic lead ingot supply was 687,400 tons, a year - on - year change of 8.3% and a month - on - month change of 4.6%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply was 6.5172 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.8% [35] 4. Demand Analysis - **Battery Operating Rate and Apparent Demand**: At the demand end, the lead - acid battery operating rate was 74.64%. In October 2025, the domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 689,700 tons, a year - on - year change of 5.9% and a month - on - month change of - 4.1%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 6.5264 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.9% [40] - **Battery Exports**: In October 2025, the net export volume of batteries was 16.1452 million units, and the net export weight was 84,600 tons. It was estimated that the net export of lead in batteries was 52,900 tons, a year - on - year change of - 15.1% and a month - on - month change of - 12.8%. From January to October, the total net export of lead in batteries was 607,600 tons, and the cumulative net export of lead in batteries changed by - 5.0% year - on - year [43] - **Inventory Days**: In November 2025, the finished - product inventory days of lead - acid battery factories decreased from 24.5 days to 20.9 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries in dealers decreased from 41.0 days to 40.7 days [45] - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly dragged down new installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway drove the improvement of new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automotive sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles are gradually replacing lead - acid starting batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles provides support for lead consumption. In the base station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations drives the steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [49][51][54] 5. Supply - Demand Inventory - **Total Lead Ingot Inventory**: Not elaborated in a summarized way in the text, but relevant data is presented through various inventory charts - **China's Monthly Lead Ingot Balance**: In October 2025, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of - 2,400 tons. From January to October, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of - 9,200 tons [63] - **Overseas Monthly Lead Ingot Balance**: In September 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a surplus of 48,900 tons. From January to September, the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a surplus of 17,000 tons [66] 6. Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: According to Steel Union data, China's social lead inventory increased slightly by 0.13 tons to 22,900 tons. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 16,700 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 140 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - month contract was - 75 yuan/ton [71] - **Overseas Structure**: LME lead ingot inventory was 235,500 tons, and LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 110,000 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 48.25 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 99.2 dollars/ton [74] - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen SHFE - LME ratio was 1.225, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was 297.67 yuan/ton [77] - **Position and Funds**: The net long position of the top 20 in SHFE lead turned slightly net long, the net long position of investment funds in LME lead increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises increased. From the perspective of positions, the short - term guidance is bullish [80]

社融同比多增，信贷仍需提振 国债周报 2025/12/13 蒋文斌（宏观金融组） 0755-23375128 jiangwb@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3048844 交易咨询号：Z0017196 程靖茹（联系人） chengjr@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03133937 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 流动性 02 期现市场 05 利率及汇率 03 主要经济数据 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 经济及政策：11月PMI数据显示，供需两端均有所回暖，但制造业PMI仍处于荣枯线下，服务业下滑明显，表明内需仍有待提振。新型政策性 金融工具未能完全对冲地产下行的冲击，当前需求恢复的动力不足，经济内生修复态势仍待巩固。出口方面，11月出口数据强于预期，对美 出口回落而非美地区出口增速维持韧性。中央经济工作会议强调继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，明年降准降息预期仍存。海外方面，12月美 联储降息落地且开始购买短债，流动性紧张现象有望缓解。 1、中央经济工作会议：要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降 息等多 ...

短多维持持有 结构空配继续 原油周报 2025/12/13 徐绍祖 （能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号：Z0022675 严梓桑 （联系人） 0755-23375123 yanzs@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03149203 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估&策略推荐 05 原油需求 02 宏观&地缘 06 原油库存 03 油品价差 07 气象灾害 04 原油供应 08 另类数据 01 50.0 55.0 60.0 65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 2025/1/1 2025/1/8 2025/1/15 2025/1/22 2025/1/29 2025/2/5 2025/2/12 2025/2/19 2025/2/26 2025/3/5 2025/3/12 2025/3/19 2025/3/26 2025/4/2 2025/4/9 2025/4/16 2025/4/23 2025/4/30 2025/5/7 2025/5/14 2025/5/21 2025/5/28 2025/6/4 2025/6/11 2025/6/18 2025/6/25 2025/7/2 ...

持续增仓， 多空博弈加剧 棉花周报 2025/12/13 13352843071 yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 杨泽元（农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 03 国内市场情况 02 价差走势回顾 04 国际市场情况 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 市场回顾：外盘方面，本周美棉花期货价格窄幅震荡，截至周五美棉花期货3月合约收盘价报63.83美分/磅，较之前一周下跌0.12美分/磅， 跌幅0.19%。价差方面，美棉3-5月差报-1.1美分/磅，较之前一周下跌0.04美分/磅。国内方面，本周郑棉价格小幅上涨，截至周五郑棉5月 合约收盘价报13850元/吨，较之前一周上涨130元/吨，涨幅0.95%。中国棉花价格指数(CCIndex)3128B报15062元/吨，较之前一周上涨40元/ 吨。基差报1215元/吨，较之前一周下跌90元/吨。郑棉1-5月差报-15元/吨，较之前一周下跌45元/吨。 ◆ 行业信息：据Mysteel最新公布的数据显示，截至12月12日当周，纺纱厂开机率为65.5%，环比前一个周持 ...

05 资金面 03 经济与企业盈利 06 估值 重要会议落地，逢低做多 股指周报 2025/12/13 0755-23375128 jiangwb@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3048844 交易咨询号：Z0017196 蒋文斌（宏观金融组） 周度评估及策略推荐 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 利率与信用环境 02 期现市场 周度评估及策略推荐 重要消息：1、中央经济工作会议：灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕；推动投资止跌回稳，适当增加中央预算内投 资规模；深入整治"内卷式"竞争，持续深化资本市场投融资综合改革；2、金融监管总局：着力化解存量风险，坚决遏制增量风险，严守 不"爆雷"底线；3、商业航天：国家航天局印发《国家航天局推进商业航天高质量安全发展行动计划（2025—2027年）》；4、据报道， 美国政府将允许英伟达向中国出售其H200人工智能芯片，美国商务部正在敲定相关安排细节。 经济与企业盈利：1、国家统计局：10月份，规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长4.9%，社会消费品零售总额同比增长2.9%，全国固定资产投 资同比下降1.7%；2、11月官方制造业PMI为49.2，前值49 ...

注意价格剧烈波动风险 贵金属周报 2025/12/13 0755-23375141 zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 钟俊轩（宏观金融组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及行情展望 04 宏观经济数据 02 市场回顾 05 贵金属价差 03 利率与流动性 06 贵金属库存 01 周度评估及行情展望 周度总结 ◆ 本周行情回顾：美联储鸽派降息后贵金属价格本周表现十分强势，截至周五日盘收盘，沪金涨1.00%，报970.66 元/克，沪银涨8.80%，报 14892.00 元/千克；COMEX金涨1.68%，报4309.30 美元/盎司，COMEX银涨11.20%，报63.98 美元/盎司； 10年期美债收益率报4.14 %；美元 指数跌0.72%，报98.34 ； ◆ 本周四凌晨美联储议息会议进行鸽派降息操作，降息25个基点令联邦基金目标利率区间降至3.50%-3.75%的同时重启扩表，令金银价格得到 支撑： 1.内部分歧方面: 联储官员投票结果鹰派程度低于市场预期，仅古尔斯比和施密特投出反对票，并非是高达4-5个票委的反对降息。 特朗 ...

03 供给端 06 成本端 01 短期或区间调整 碳酸锂周报 2025/12/13 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 曾宇轲（有色金属组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 需求端 02 期现市场 05 库存 周度评估及策略推荐 周度要点小结 ◆ 期现市场：12月12日，五矿钢联碳酸锂现货指数（MMLC）早盘报95527元，周涨5.13%。MMLC电池级碳酸锂均价为95750元。同日广期所 LC2605收盘价97720元，本周涨6.02%。 ◆ 供给：12月11日，SMM国内碳酸锂周度产量报21998吨，环比增0.3%。2025年11月国内碳酸锂产量95350吨，环比增3.3%，同比增48.7%，前11 月累计同比增43.7%。2025年11月智利碳酸锂出口数量为1.8万吨，环比减少28%，其中出口至中国的量1.47万吨，环比减少9%。11月智利出 口硫酸锂10132吨，全部出口至中国，环比增长493%。 ◆ 需求：据中汽协，11月，国内新能源汽车产销量分别完成188万辆和182.3万辆，同比分别增 ...