Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall commodity market showed an adjustment trend yesterday, with the prices of finished steel products rising slightly. The supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral performance overall. The terminal demand for hot-rolled coils continued to recover, but the inventory level remained high. In the long term, the steel consumption side still has the basis for gradual recovery. However, in the short term, due to weak demand in the off-season and high plate inventory, prices are likely to continue to fluctuate weakly. With the implementation of policies and the improvement of the macro environment, steel demand is expected to have a marginal inflection point later [2]. - For iron ore, the overall inventory is still high, but there are structural contradictions. In the short term, the molten iron output is temporarily stable, and the demand is flat. It is expected to operate within the shock range [5]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the market risk appetite has weakened comprehensively. Although the downward pressure on prices still exists, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and the corresponding price inflection point. For the black sector, it may be more cost-effective to look for positions to rebound rather than short [10][11]. - For industrial silicon, the supply side continues to shrink, and the demand side has no significant marginal change. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to phased emotional disturbances [14][15]. - For polysilicon, it is still in a tug-of-war between reality and expectations. The supply-demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short-term destocking range is expected to be limited, and the price will fluctuate widely within the range [17]. - For glass, multiple production lines are expected to undergo cold repairs in December, and the supply-demand mismatch has been alleviated. Although the policy has released positive signals, the supply-demand structure is still imbalanced, and the short-term market is expected to continue to operate weakly [20]. - For soda ash, the supply pressure remains high, but the demand side has shown marginal improvement, and the cost support still exists. It is expected to maintain a shock consolidation pattern in the short term [22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Rebar - **Market Information**: The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3089 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton (1.046%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 43,558 tons, a net increase of 338 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.432705 million lots, a decrease of 80,706 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3210 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3240 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral performance overall. The steel demand has officially entered the off-season, and the subsequent reduction rhythm needs to be paid attention to. In the short term, due to weak demand in the off-season, prices are likely to continue to fluctuate weakly. However, with the implementation of policies and the improvement of the macro environment, steel demand is expected to have a marginal inflection point later [2]. Hot-Rolled Coils - **Market Information**: The closing price of the hot-rolled coil main contract was 3295 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (0.764%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 113,732 tons, a decrease of 2,656 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.082089 million lots, a decrease of 42,534 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot-rolled coils in Lecong was 3310 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3290 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The terminal demand for hot-rolled coils continued to recover, but the output decreased slightly, and the inventory level remained high. The steel demand has officially entered the off-season, and the inventory pressure of hot-rolled coils still exists. The subsequent reduction rhythm needs to be paid attention to. In the short term, due to weak demand in the off-season and high plate inventory, prices are likely to continue to fluctuate weakly. However, with the implementation of policies and the improvement of the macro environment, steel demand is expected to have a marginal inflection point later [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 790.50 yuan/ton, up 0.64% (+5.00), with a position change of -10,742 lots to 449,800 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 922,800 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 792 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 51.75 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.14% [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: On the supply side, the overseas iron ore shipments decreased month-on-month in the latest period. On the demand side, the daily average molten iron output decreased month-on-month, and the number of blast furnace overhauls was more than that of restarts. The inventory of iron ore was still high overall, but there were structural contradictions. In the short term, the molten iron output was temporarily stable, and the demand was flat. It was expected to operate within the shock range [5]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Market Information - On November 24, the main contract of silicomanganese (SM601) rebounded by more than 1.3% during the session and finally closed up 0.43% at 5630 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 silicomanganese in Tianjin was 5650 yuan/ton, with a premium of 210 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) once rebounded nearly 1% during the session and then fell back, finally closing down 0.29% at 5456 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5400 yuan/ton, with a discount of 56 yuan/ton to the futures price [7][9]. - The silicomanganese price showed a weak trend, and attention should be paid to whether it can be supported at the 5600 yuan/ton level. The ferrosilicon price was still in the shock range of 5400 - 5800 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the support situation at the 5400 yuan/ton level [9]. Strategy Viewpoint - In the past week, the market risk appetite weakened comprehensively. Affected by factors such as the weakening of the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December and the decline in coking coal prices, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased significantly. However, with the increase in the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December and the possible end of the decline in coking coal prices, although the downward pressure on prices still exists, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and the corresponding price inflection point. For the black sector, it may be more cost-effective to look for positions to rebound rather than short. The fundamentals of silicomanganese are still not ideal, and attention should be paid to the situation of manganese ore. The supply and demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions and drivers, and the operability is relatively low [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) was 8940 yuan/ton, down 0.22% (-20). The weighted contract position increased by 982 lots to 428,650 lots. The spot price of 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 410 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 was 9750 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton, with a basis of 10 yuan/ton after converting to the futures price [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of industrial silicon continued to weaken yesterday. The short-term funds were fast in and out, and the sentiment changed rapidly. Attention should be paid to the volatility risk. On the fundamental side, the weekly output of industrial silicon continued to decline, and the supply side continued to shrink. The demand side had no significant marginal change. The cost side provided support for the futures price. In the short term, the price of industrial silicon was expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to phased emotional disturbances [14][15]. Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) was 53,315 yuan/ton, down 0.08% (-45). The weighted contract position increased by 3363 lots to 235,435 lots. The average price of N-type granular silicon in the SMM caliber was 50.5 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N-type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N-type reclaimed material was 52.25 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg, with a basis of -1065 yuan/ton [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Polysilicon was still in a tug-of-war between reality and expectations. The supply-demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short-term destocking range was expected to be limited. The prices of silicon wafers and cells had loosened, and the price pressure still existed. The spot price of upstream silicon materials was relatively firm, facing the price feedback pressure from downstream. The price would fluctuate widely within the range under the influence of news. The focus in the future was still on the progress of the platform company and the price feedback of the industrial chain [17]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - **Market Information**: At 15:00 on Monday, the main contract of glass closed at 1013 yuan/ton, up 2.63% (+26). The quoted price of large plates in North China was 1070 yuan, down 10 from the previous day; the quoted price in Central China was 1080 yuan, down 10 from the previous day. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 63.303 million boxes, up 56,000 boxes (+0.09%). In terms of positions, the top 20 holders of long orders increased their positions by 9 lots today, and the top 20 holders of short orders decreased their positions by 39,552 lots [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Multiple glass production lines are expected to undergo cold repairs in December, and the supply-demand mismatch has been alleviated. Although the policy has released positive signals, the supply-demand structure is still imbalanced, and the short-term market is expected to continue to operate weakly [20]. Soda Ash - **Market Information**: At 15:00 on Monday, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1183 yuan/ton, up 1.11% (+13). The quoted price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1153 yuan, up 13 from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.6444 million tons, down 62,900 tons (-3.70%), of which the inventory of heavy soda ash was 887,300 tons, down 19,800 tons, and the inventory of light soda ash was 757,100 tons, down 43,100 tons. In terms of positions, the top 20 holders of long orders decreased their positions by 21,776 lots today, and the top 20 holders of short orders decreased their positions by 50,267 lots [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply pressure in the soda ash market remains high, but the demand side has shown marginal improvement, and the cost support still exists. It is expected to maintain a shock consolidation pattern in the short term [22].

（1）股市短评：上证综指数、大盘蓝筹股、中小盘股和创业板股表现为高位震荡上行的市场行情。 （2）金融期权波动性分析：金融期权隐含波动率下降，但维持较高水平波动。 金融期权 2025-11-25 金融期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | 金融期权策略早报概要： 金融期权研究 表3：期权因子—量仓PCR （3）金融期权策略与建议：对于ETF期权来说，适合构建偏多头的买方策略，认购期权牛市价差组合策略；对于股 指期权来说，适合构建偏多头的卖方策略、认购期权牛市价差组合策略和期权合成期货多头与期货空头做套利策略 。 表1：金融市场重要指数概况 | 重要指数 | 指数代码 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交额 | 额变化 | PE | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - After recent continuous declines, the index is expected to stabilize periodically. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and technology growth is still the market's main line. The mid - to - long - term approach for the index is mainly to go long on dips [4]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve. The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover under the intertwined background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations, but attention should be paid to the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds and the increasing allocation power [6]. - The expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has significantly rebounded, and the overseas interest - rate cut cycle will continue. It is recommended to go long on precious metals on dips [8]. - Various metals and other commodities have different outlooks. For example, copper and aluminum prices have strong support, while zinc and lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term. Different operation suggestions are given for each commodity [11][13][16][17]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **Market Information**: The President of China had a phone call with the US President; the central bank conducted 100 billion yuan of MLF operations; the net subscription of Hang Seng Technology ETF exceeded 25 billion shares since November; Industrial Foshan stated it did not lower its Q4 profit target [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: Different basis ratios are provided for IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts [3]. - **Strategy View**: The index is expected to stabilize periodically, and the mid - to - long - term approach is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, the prices of TL, T, TF, and TS contracts changed; the central bank conducted 100 billion yuan of MLF operations and issued 45 billion yuan of central bank bills in Hong Kong; the central bank conducted 33.87 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 5.57 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve in Q4. The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover, but attention should be paid to the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds and the increasing allocation power [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold and silver prices rose; COMEX gold and silver prices are provided; the US 10 - year Treasury yield and the US dollar index are given; Fed officials' dovish statements drove the prices of precious metals to stabilize and rebound [7]. - **Strategy View**: The expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has rebounded. It is recommended to go long on precious metals on dips [8]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: After the Sino - US leaders' dialogue, copper prices oscillated slightly higher. LME copper inventory increased, and domestic copper inventory and spot premiums changed [10]. - **Strategy View**: The Fed's possible interest - rate cut and the Sino - US dialogue ease geopolitical risks. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and domestic downstream demand is strong, so copper prices have strong support [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices oscillated narrowly. Domestic and LME aluminum inventories changed, and the trading sentiment was mainly wait - and - see [12]. - **Strategy View**: The global visible inventory of aluminum ingots is relatively low, and there are supply - disruption expectations. Aluminum prices are expected to strengthen after oscillating [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices changed slightly. Domestic and LME zinc inventories, basis, and other data are provided [14][15]. - **Strategy View**: Zinc ore supply is tight in the short term but may ease later. The zinc industry is in an over - supply cycle, and zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short term [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices fell slightly. Domestic and LME lead inventories, basis, and other data are provided [17]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of lead ingots is relatively loose, and lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded significantly. Spot premiums, nickel ore prices, and nickel - iron prices are provided [18]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term pressure on nickel fundamentals is obvious, and prices may continue to be under pressure. It is not recommended to chase short or bottom - fish [19]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose. Supply, demand, and inventory data are provided, and there are some risk factors such as the situation in Congo (Kinshasa) [21]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term supply - demand of tin is in a tight balance. Tin prices are expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [22]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: Lithium carbonate prices fell. Spot and futures prices and other data are provided [23]. - **Strategy View**: The contradiction in lithium carbonate positions has eased. Lithium prices are expected to be weak, but the bottom - running range may rise. Attention should be paid to Q1 cell production and market sentiment [24]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices rose. Spot prices, basis, and inventory data are provided [25][26]. - **Strategy View**: Overseas ore supply may increase, and the alumina industry has over - capacity. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [27]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices rose slightly. Spot prices, raw material prices, and inventory data are provided [28]. - **Strategy View**: The stainless steel market has an over - supply situation, and prices are expected to continue to decline weakly [28]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast aluminum alloy prices stabilized. Futures prices, inventory, and other data are provided [29]. - **Strategy View**: Cast aluminum alloy prices have support at the cost end, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [30]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: Steel prices rose slightly. Futures prices, spot prices, and inventory data are provided [32]. - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand of rebar is both increasing, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils is still high. Steel prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term but may improve later [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices rose. Futures prices, spot prices, and inventory data are provided [34]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of iron ore is strong, and the demand is stable. Iron ore prices are expected to operate within an oscillating range [35]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices rose, and soda ash prices also rose. Spot prices, inventory, and position data are provided [36][38]. - **Strategy View**: Glass supply - demand may improve in December, but the current supply - demand is still imbalanced. Soda ash supply pressure is high, but demand has improved marginally. Both are expected to oscillate [37][39]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon prices rose slightly, and ferrosilicon prices fell slightly. Spot prices, basis, and other data are provided [40]. - **Strategy View**: The price of ferrous alloys has declined due to market sentiment and other factors. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment. Manganese silicon may follow the black - sector market, and the operability of ferrosilicon is low [43][45]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices fell slightly, and polysilicon prices also fell slightly. Spot prices, inventory, and other data are provided [46][48]. - **Strategy View**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate, and polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate within a wide range. Attention should be paid to relevant information such as platform - company progress [47][49]. Energy and Chemicals Category Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices oscillated and rebounded. There are factors such as heavy rainfall in Thailand and concentrated expiration of Shanghai Exchange's natural - rubber warehouse receipts [51]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to have a bullish short - term trading strategy with a stop - loss and partially build a hedging position [56]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil and refined - oil prices fell. European ARA's weekly data on refined - oil inventory is provided [57]. - **Strategy View**: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export - price - support intention [58]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices rose. Spot prices, basis, and other data are provided [59]. - **Strategy View**: The positive factors from Iran's plant shutdown are being realized, but the near - term high - inventory situation remains. It is recommended to wait and see [59]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices oscillated and rebounded. Spot prices, basis, and other data are provided [60]. - **Strategy View**: Urea prices are expected to oscillate and build a bottom. It is recommended to go long on dips at low prices [60]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure - benzene prices were stable, and styrene prices fell. Spot prices, basis, and other data are provided [61]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of styrene is under pressure, but the port inventory is decreasing. Styrene prices may stop falling periodically [62]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices rose. Futures prices, spot prices, basis, and other data are provided [63]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic PVC market has an over - supply situation, and it is recommended to go short on rallies in the medium term [65]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene - glycol prices rose. Futures prices, spot prices, basis, and other data are provided [66]. - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand of ethylene glycol is expected to be weak in the medium term. It is recommended to go short on rallies [67]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices rose. Futures prices, spot prices, basis, and other data are provided [68]. - **Strategy View**: PTA supply may increase, and demand has limited upward space. PXN has the risk of valuation correction [69]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: PX prices rose. Futures prices, spot prices, basis, and other data are provided [71]. - **Strategy View**: PX inventory is expected to accumulate slightly in November. PX has the risk of valuation correction [72]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices rose. Futures prices, spot prices, basis, and other data are provided [73]. - **Strategy View**: PE prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [74]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices rose. Futures prices, spot prices, basis, and other data are provided [75]. - **Strategy View**: PP has a supply - demand imbalance, and the inventory pressure is high. It may be supported in Q1 next year [77]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices mainly fell. Supply and demand data are provided, and it is expected that pig prices will continue to decline [79]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of live pigs is large, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to go short on near - month contracts or conduct reverse arbitrage [80]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable or rose. Supply and demand are in a stalemate, and egg prices are expected to be stable or rise [81]. - **Strategy View**: Egg prices are expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to demand support. In the medium term, it is recommended to wait for rallies to go short [82]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: CBOT soybean prices fell. Domestic soybean - meal prices were stable. Supply and demand data of global soybeans are provided [83]. - **Strategy View**: The import cost of soybeans has a bottom support, and domestic soybean - meal inventory is large. Soybean - meal prices are expected to oscillate [84]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Palm - oil export data is weak, and domestic oil inventory data is provided [85]. - **Strategy View**: Palm - oil prices are under pressure due to high production. It is recommended to view it oscillatingly and turn bullish if production decreases [86]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices rebounded slightly. Spot prices, production data of different regions are provided [87][88]. - **Strategy View**: The new - season sugar production is expected to increase, and it is recommended to wait for rallies to go short [89]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices rose slightly. Spot prices, inventory, and production data are provided [90][91]. - **Strategy View**: Cotton demand is not too bad after the peak season, and prices are expected to oscillate [92].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has significantly rebounded after the speeches of key Fed voting members, and the overseas interest - rate cut cycle will continue. Further driving forces will be released in December. The Fed will hold its last interest - rate meeting of the year on December 10 (local time) and release an economic outlook report (including the dot - plot), and Trump will probably complete the selection of the new Fed chairman in late December [3]. - Currently, it is recommended to buy on dips in the precious metals strategy. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 896 - 960 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 11367 - 12639 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold rose 0.64% to 938.68 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver rose 1.47% to 11975.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold was reported at 4129.60 dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver was reported at 51.09 dollars/ounce. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was 4.04%, and the US dollar index was 100.20 [2]. - Multiple Fed officials' dovish statements drove the prices of gold and silver to stabilize and rebound. San Francisco Fed President Daly and potential new Fed Chairman candidate Waller both supported an interest - rate cut in the December meeting [2]. - New York Fed President Williams said there was still room for an interest - rate cut recently. After his speech, the market's probability pricing of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut in the Fed's December meeting rose to 70% [3]. 3.2 Strategy Suggestions - Given the increasing expectation of Fed's interest - rate cuts, it is advisable to buy precious metals on dips. The reference ranges for Shanghai Gold and Shanghai Silver main contracts are 896 - 960 yuan/gram and 11367 - 12639 yuan/kilogram respectively [3]. 3.3 Data Summary - Gold: COMEX gold's closing price (active contract) rose 1.75% to 4133.80 dollars/ounce, while trading volume decreased by 13.77% to 21.82 million lots. SHFE gold's closing price (active contract) rose 0.36% to 930.32 yuan/gram, and trading volume decreased by 19.60% to 47.25 million lots [5]. - Silver: COMEX silver's closing price (active contract) rose 3.01% to 51.16 dollars/ounce, and its trading volume decreased by 28.51% to 210.82 million lots. SHFE silver's closing price (active contract) rose 1.10% to 11,808.00 yuan/kilogram, and trading volume decreased by 28.51% to 210.82 million lots [5].

农产品早报 2025-11-25 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 周一 CBOT 大豆收跌，巴西升贴水稳定，大豆到港成本稳定。周一国内豆粕现货持稳，华东报 2980 元/ 吨，豆粕成交疲弱、提货较好。MYSTEEL 预计本周油厂大豆压榨量为 231.73 万吨，上周压榨大豆 233.44 万吨，上周饲企库存天数为 7.98 天环比下降 0.25 天，港口大豆上周去库，但同比仍较高，豆粕库存回 升至 100 万吨以上，因压榨量较大。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 巴西大豆产区 11 月降雨水平同比往年略低，12 月预报雨量较多，预计播种较为顺利。11 月 USDA 月报 预估 25/26 年度全球大豆产量与消费量已几乎持平，同时，全球大豆供需格局由供需双增转 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not available in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural products options market shows different trends. Oil and fat - related agricultural products are weakly volatile, and some products like palm oil are in a weak - bearish market. Soft commodities such as sugar are weakly bearish, and grains like corn show a weak rebound. Strategies suggest constructing option combination strategies mainly for sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2] 3. Summary According to Different Categories 3.1 Futures Market Overview - **Price and Volume**: Different agricultural product options have various price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, the latest price of soybean No.1 (A2601) is 4,132, down 7 with a decline of 0.17%, and its trading volume is 17.67 million lots, an increase of 3.81 million lots compared to the previous period [3] 3.2 Option Factors - **Volume - to - Open - Interest PCR (Put - Call Ratio)**: This is used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market. For example, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 is 0.50, a decrease of 0.16, and the open - interest PCR is 1.08, a decrease of 0.02 [4] - **Pressure and Support Levels**: Determined from the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 4,200 and the support level is 4,050 [5] - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of different options shows different levels and trends. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 11.84%, and the weighted implied volatility is 13.32%, an increase of 0.42% [6] 3.3 Option Strategies and Recommendations 3.3.1 Oil and Oilseed Options - **Soybean No.1**: The soybean fundamentals have a slightly bearish impact. The option implied volatility is below the historical average, and the open - interest PCR indicates a volatile market. Strategies include constructing neutral short call + put option combination strategies and long collar strategies for spot hedging [7] - **Soybean Meal**: The fundamentals show an increase in trading volume and basis. The option implied volatility is below the historical average, and the open - interest PCR indicates a weak market. Strategies include constructing bearish short call + put option combination strategies and long collar strategies for spot hedging [9] - **Palm Oil**: The fundamentals suggest possible high - level inventory. The option implied volatility is below the historical average, and the open - interest PCR indicates a weak market. Strategies include constructing bearish spread strategies for put options, bearish short call + put option combination strategies, and long collar strategies for spot hedging [9] - **Peanut**: The spot price is weak, and the option implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level. The open - interest PCR indicates a weak - oscillating market. The recommended strategy is a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] 3.3.2 Agricultural By - product Options - **Live Pig**: The supply and demand sides have different trends. The option implied volatility is above the historical average, and the open - interest PCR indicates a weak market. Strategies include constructing bearish short call + put option combination strategies and covered call strategies for spot hedging [10] - **Egg**: The egg price has declined, and the option implied volatility is at a high level. The open - interest PCR indicates a certain market situation. Strategies include constructing neutral short call + put option combination strategies [11] - **Apple**: The new - season apple production has decreased. The option implied volatility is above the historical average, and the open - interest PCR indicates strong support below. Strategies include constructing bullish short call + put option combination strategies and long collar strategies for spot hedging [11] - **Jujube**: The acquisition progress in Xinjiang is in a certain stage. The option implied volatility has risen to above the historical average, and the open - interest PCR indicates a weak market. Strategies include constructing bearish short strangle option combination strategies and covered call strategies for spot hedging [12] 3.3.3 Soft Commodity Options - **Sugar**: The spot price and basis have weakened. The option implied volatility is at a low historical level, and the open - interest PCR indicates a range - oscillating market. Strategies include constructing bearish short call + put option combination strategies and long collar strategies for spot hedging [12] - **Cotton**: The global cotton production has increased. The option implied volatility is at a low level, and the open - interest PCR indicates a weak market. Strategies include constructing bearish short call + put option combination strategies and covered call strategies for spot hedging [13] 3.3.4 Grain Options - **Corn**: The corn price has increased. The option implied volatility is at a low historical level, and the open - interest PCR indicates a weak market. Strategies include constructing bullish short call + put option combination strategies [13]

金属期权 2025-11-25 金属期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 金属期权策略早报概要：（1）有色金属偏多上行，构建卖方中性波动率策略策略；（2）黑色系维持大幅度波动的 行情走势，适合构建做空波动率组合策略；（3）贵金属反弹回暖上升，构建牛市价差组合策略。 | 表1：标的期货市场概况 | | --- | | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （%） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical industry is divided into several sectors including energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others [9]. - For each sector, specific options strategies and suggestions are provided based on the analysis of the underlying market, option factors, and option strategies [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various energy and chemical option underlying futures contracts [4]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The report provides the volume and open interest PCR data for different option varieties, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market [5]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of different option varieties are determined from the strike prices with the maximum open interest of call and put options [6]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The report shows the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, change in weighted implied volatility, annual average implied volatility, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility for each option variety [7]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Suggestions 3.5.1 Energy Options - Crude Oil - **Underlying Market Analysis**: US refinery demand has stabilized and rebounded. Shale oil production has little fluctuation during the oil price decline. OPEC's short - term supply is flat. Libya's short - term exports have declined but are expected to recover in two weeks. The restart of a Kuwaiti refinery in December weakens the support for low - sulfur fuel oil [8]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of crude oil options fluctuates above the average. The open interest PCR is below 0.80, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 540 and the support level is 460 [8]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: No directional strategy; construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility; construct a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8]. 3.5.2 Energy Options - Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - **Underlying Market Analysis**: US propane is in the process of destocking but the inventory is still at a historical high. Crude oil is under pressure from oversupply and geopolitical issues, and the LPG price has shown an oversold rebound and slight consolidation [10]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of LPG options has dropped significantly to near the lower - than - average level. The open interest PCR is around 0.80, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 4500 and the support level is 4250 [10]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: No directional strategy; construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility; construct a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. 3.5.3 Alcohol Options - Methanol - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Port inventory and enterprise inventory are both decreasing. The methanol price has shown a weak and bearish trend [10]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of methanol options fluctuates around the historical average. The open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating a weak and oscillating market. The pressure level is 2400 and the support level is 2000 [10]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Construct a bear spread strategy with put options for direction; construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility; construct a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. 3.5.4 Alcohol Options - Ethylene Glycol - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Port inventory has increased, but the expected inventory accumulation rate is expected to slow down. The ethylene glycol price has shown a weak and bearish trend [11]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of ethylene glycol options fluctuates near the lower - than - average level. The open interest PCR is below 0.70, indicating strong bearish power. The pressure level is 4500 and the support level is 3800 [11]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Construct a bear spread strategy with put options for direction; construct a short - volatility strategy for time - value gain; construct a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.5.5 Polyolefin Options - Polypropylene - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The overall inventory pressure of polyolefins is high. The polypropylene price has shown a weak and bearish trend [11]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of polypropylene options has dropped to near the average level. The open interest PCR is around 0.70, indicating a weakening market. The pressure level is 7000 and the support level is 6300 [11]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Construct a bear spread strategy with put options for direction; no volatility strategy; construct a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.5.6 Rubber Options - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Tire factory operating rates are decreasing, and the rubber price has shown a weak consolidation trend [12]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of rubber options has decreased to near the lower - than - average level after a rapid increase. The open interest PCR is below 0.60. The pressure level has dropped significantly to 16000 and the support level is 15000 [12]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: No directional strategy; construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility; no spot hedging strategy [12]. 3.5.7 Polyester Options - PTA - **Underlying Market Analysis**: PTA inventory has increased slightly, but it is expected to enter a destocking stage. The PTA price has shown a rebound with pressure [12]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of PTA options fluctuates at a higher - than - average level. The open interest PCR is around 0.70, indicating an oscillating market. The pressure level is 4700 and the support level is 4300 [12]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: No directional strategy; construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility; no spot hedging strategy [12]. 3.5.8 Alkali Options - Caustic Soda - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The capacity utilization rate of caustic soda enterprises has changed in different regions. The caustic soda price has shown a weak and bearish trend [13]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of caustic soda options fluctuates at a relatively high level. The open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 3000 and the support level is 2200 [13]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Construct a bear spread strategy for direction; no volatility strategy; construct a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. 3.5.9 Alkali Options - Soda Ash - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Soda ash inventory has decreased. The soda ash price has shown a low - level weak consolidation [13]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of soda ash options fluctuates at a relatively high historical level. The open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating strong bearish pressure. The pressure level is 1860 and the support level is 1100 [13]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Construct a bear spread strategy for direction; construct a short - volatility combination strategy for volatility; construct a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. 3.5.10 Urea Options - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Enterprise inventory has decreased, and port inventory is expected to increase. The urea price has shown a low - level oscillation and a gradual rebound [14]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of urea options fluctuates slightly around the historical average. The open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating strong bearish pressure. The pressure level is 1800 and the support level is 1600 [14]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: No directional strategy; construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility; construct a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term excessive bearishness on oil prices is not advisable. A low - buying and high - selling range strategy is maintained, but current prices need to test OPEC's export price - support willingness. Short - term waiting for OPEC's export decline during price drops is recommended [3]. - For methanol, the positive impact of Iranian device shutdowns is being realized, and the market has risen significantly. However, the 01 contract has limited time and high near - end inventories. The supply remains high, and demand changes little. The market is expected to bottom out gradually, but due to the rapid short - term rise, it is advisable to wait and see [6]. - For urea, prices are oscillating and rising at the bottom, relatively resistant to decline. Supply - side enterprise profits are low, and production has slightly decreased but is still high year - on - year. Demand has improved, and with export policies and cost support, the downside is limited. It is expected to build a bottom through oscillation, and low - price long - position allocation can be considered [9]. - For rubber, a bullish short - term trading approach with stop - loss settings is recommended. A partial position in the hedge of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 can be established [16]. - For PVC, the industry has low comprehensive enterprise profits and high supply. Domestic demand is weak, and it is difficult to reverse the supply - surplus situation. Mid - term short - position allocation on price increases is recommended [18]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the supply of styrene is under pressure, but port inventories are decreasing significantly. Styrene prices may stop falling periodically [21]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. The cost - side impact has shifted, and although inventories are decreasing, high historical warehouse receipts suppress the market [24]. - For polypropylene, in a supply - demand weak situation with high inventory pressure, the market may be supported when the cost - side supply - surplus pattern changes in the first quarter of next year [27]. - For PX, it is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory in November. With a neutral valuation, there is a risk of valuation callback [30]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to be stable, and demand may maintain a high level in the short term. However, PX has a risk of valuation callback, and PTA processing fees have limited upside [32]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand pattern is expected to be weak in the medium term. With a neutral - to - low valuation, mid - term short - position allocation on price increases is recommended [36]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 5.10 yuan/barrel, a 1.13% decline, at 447.90 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also declined. European ARA weekly data showed mixed inventory changes in refined products, with a net decline of 0.38 million barrels in total refined oil inventory [2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a low - buying and high - selling range strategy, but wait and see in the short term to verify OPEC's export price - support willingness [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Prices in Taicang increased by 53, in Lunan by 50, and remained stable in Inner Mongolia. The 01 contract on the futures market rose 73 yuan to 2077 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 24. The 1 - 5 spread was +13, at - 121 [5]. - **Strategy**: The market has risen due to Iranian device shutdowns, but the 01 contract has high near - end inventories. The supply remains high, and demand changes little. It is advisable to wait and see [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: Spot prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hubei remained stable. The 01 contract on the futures market fell 16 yuan to 1638 yuan, with a basis of - 8. The 1 - 5 spread was +1, at - 73 [8]. - **Strategy**: Prices are oscillating and rising at the bottom, relatively resistant to decline. Supply - side profits are low, and demand has improved. It is expected to build a bottom through oscillation, and low - price long - position allocation can be considered [9]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices oscillated and rebounded. There was heavy rainfall in the Thai production area, and the November warehouse receipts of natural rubber on the Shanghai Exchange were about to be delivered. Tire factory operating rates were weak, and natural rubber inventories increased slightly. Spot prices of some rubber products rose [12]. - **Strategy**: A bullish short - term trading approach with stop - loss settings is recommended. A partial position in the hedge of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 can be established [16]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract rose 40 yuan to 4496 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4440 (+20) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 56 (-20) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 294 (+6) yuan/ton. Cost - side carbide prices rebounded, and caustic soda prices fell. Overall operating rates increased slightly, while downstream demand decreased slightly. Factory inventories decreased, and social inventories increased [16]. - **Strategy**: The industry has low comprehensive enterprise profits and high supply. Domestic demand is weak, and it is difficult to reverse the supply - surplus situation. Mid - term short - position allocation on price increases is recommended [18]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene was unchanged, and the futures price was also unchanged, with an enlarged basis. The spot and futures prices of styrene fell, with a strengthened basis. The upstream operating rate of styrene decreased, and port inventories decreased significantly. The demand - side operating rate of three S products increased slightly [20]. - **Strategy**: The supply of styrene is under pressure, but port inventories are decreasing significantly. Styrene prices may stop falling periodically [21]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract of polyethylene closed at 6793 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan. The spot price was unchanged. The upstream operating rate increased, and production enterprise inventories decreased, while trader inventories increased slightly. The downstream average operating rate increased slightly [23]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate at a low level. The cost - side impact has shifted, and although inventories are decreasing, high historical warehouse receipts suppress the market [24]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract of polypropylene closed at 6372 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The spot price fell 25 yuan. The upstream operating rate increased, and inventories at production enterprises, traders, and ports all decreased. The downstream average operating rate increased slightly [26]. - **Strategy**: In a supply - demand weak situation with high inventory pressure, the market may be supported when the cost - side supply - surplus pattern changes in the first quarter of next year [27]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract rose 22 yuan to 6772 yuan. The PX CFR price rose 2 dollars to 826 dollars. The Chinese and Asian operating rates increased. Some devices restarted, and PTA operating rates decreased. November imports from South Korea increased year - on - year, and inventories increased in September [29]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory in November. With a neutral valuation, there is a risk of valuation callback [30]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract rose 14 yuan to 4680 yuan. The spot price in East China rose 15 yuan/ton. The PTA operating rate decreased, and downstream operating rates increased. Inventories increased slightly, and processing fees rose slightly [31]. - **Strategy**: The supply is expected to be stable, and demand may maintain a high level in the short term. However, PX has a risk of valuation callback, and PTA processing fees have limited upside [32]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract rose 76 yuan to 3884 yuan. The spot price in East China rose 38 yuan. The supply - side operating rate decreased, and downstream operating rates increased. Port inventories remained unchanged, and production profits were negative [35]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand pattern is expected to be weak in the medium term. With a neutral - to - low valuation, mid - term short - position allocation on price increases is recommended [36].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season, with high inventory pressure on hot - rolled coils. The price is likely to continue weak and volatile in the short term, but there may be a marginal inflection point in demand with policy implementation and macro - environment improvement [3] - For iron ore, in the macro vacuum period, the market is likely to follow the real - world logic. It has strong supply, stable demand, and some resource shortages, and is expected to operate within a volatile range [6] - For ferroalloys, although the downward pressure on prices still exists, there is no need to be overly pessimistic, and the positive impact of December's macro - events on market sentiment is expected. It is recommended to focus on the inflection point of market sentiment and corresponding price changes [11] - For industrial silicon, it is expected to continue to operate in a volatile manner in the short term, and attention should be paid to phased emotional disturbances [15][16] - For polysilicon, it is caught between reality and expectations. The supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is limited, and it is expected to oscillate widely within a range [18] - For glass, it is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom, with limited room for further decline [21] - For soda ash, it is expected to maintain a weak operation before the glass demand shows substantial improvement [23] Group 3: Summary of Each Category Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3057 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.229%) from the previous trading day. The spot price in Tianjin decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while that in Shanghai increased by 10 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3270 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton (0.091%) from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai remained unchanged [2] Strategy Views - Rebar has both supply and demand increasing, with continuous inventory reduction, showing a neutral overall performance. Hot - rolled coils have rising terminal demand, slightly decreasing production, but still high inventory levels. In the short term, due to weak off - season demand and high plate inventory, prices are likely to continue weak and volatile. However, with policy implementation and macro - environment improvement, steel demand may have a marginal inflection point [3] Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main contract (I2601) closed at 785.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.38% (- 3.00). The position changed by - 16984 hands to 46.05 million hands. The weighted position was 92.33 million hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 788 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 52.34 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.25% [5] Strategy Views - Supply: Overseas iron ore shipments rebounded significantly. Both Australian and Brazilian shipments increased, and shipments from non - mainstream countries also rose. Demand: The daily average pig iron output decreased, with more blast furnace overhauls than restarts. Inventory: Port inventory decreased slightly, and steel mill inventory was consumed. Overall, the total inventory is still high, with some resource shortages, and it is expected to operate within a volatile range [6] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On November 21, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 0.14% at 5606 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5650 yuan/ton, with a premium of 234 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed up 0.48% at 5472 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5450 yuan/ton, at a discount of 22 yuan/ton to the futures [8][10] Strategy Views - The market risk appetite weakened last week. Ferroalloy prices declined significantly but may stop falling. It is recommended to focus on the inflection point of market sentiment and corresponding price changes. For the black sector, it may be more cost - effective to look for positions to rebound rather than short - sell. Manganese silicon's fundamentals are not good, and attention should be paid to the manganese ore situation. Ferrosilicon's supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, with low operational cost - effectiveness [11][12] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Quotes - Industrial silicon: The main contract (SI2601) closed at 8960 yuan/ton, down 1.27% (- 115). The weighted position changed by - 14960 hands to 427668 hands. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, and the basis was 390 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 was 9800 yuan/ton, and the basis was 40 yuan/ton [14] - Polysilicon: The main contract (PS2601) closed at 53360 yuan/ton, up 1.73% (+ 910). The weighted position changed by - 6326 hands to 232072 hands. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, and the basis was - 1060 yuan/ton [17] Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: The price continued to weaken last Friday. The supply is shrinking, and the demand is stable. The cost provides support, and it is expected to operate in a volatile manner in the short term [15][16] - Polysilicon: It is caught between reality and expectations. The supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is limited, and it is expected to oscillate widely within a range [18] Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - Glass: The main contract closed at 989 yuan/ton on Friday, down 1.98% (- 20). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 5.60 million boxes (0.09%) week - on - week [20] - Soda ash: The main contract closed at 1158 yuan/ton on Friday, down 2.03% (- 24). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 6.29 million tons week - on - week [22] Strategy Views - Glass: The expectation of cold - repair of production lines in December is increasing, but the demand is weak, and the cost support is weakening. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom [21] - Soda ash: Although some devices were overhauled last week, the market is still oversupplied. The demand is divided, and it is expected to maintain a weak operation before the glass demand improves [23]