1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Copper**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has increased. The copper price has support below, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The reference operating range for the main Shanghai copper contract today is 85,500 - 87,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME copper 3M contract is 10,680 - 10,900 dollars/ton [4][5]. - **Aluminum**: Although the downstream is gradually entering the off - season, the overall global aluminum ingot inventory is low, and the aluminum price is still strongly supported. After the shock adjustment, the aluminum price may further strengthen. The reference operating range for the main Shanghai aluminum contract today is 21,300 - 21,600 yuan/ton, and for the LME aluminum 3M contract is 2,770 - 2,830 dollars/ton [6][7]. - **Lead**: The supply of lead ingots is relatively loose, and the lead price is still oscillating in a wide range. Recently, major global financial assets have shown weakness, and the lead price is expected to operate weakly in the short term [8][9]. - **Zinc**: The zinc industry is still in an over - supply cycle, and the structural risk has receded. Recently, major global financial assets have shown weakness, and the zinc price is expected to operate weakly in the short term [10][11]. - **Tin**: The short - term tin supply and demand are in a tight balance. Considering the inhibitory effect of high prices on tin consumption and the marginal alleviation of the shortage at the mine end, the tin price is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 280,000 - 300,000 yuan/ton, and for the overseas LME tin is 36,000 - 38,000 dollars/ton [12][13]. - **Nickel**: The short - term pressure on the nickel fundamentals is obvious, and the price may continue to be under pressure. It is not recommended to chase short or bottom - fish. Wait for the nickel iron price to stabilize before further observation. The short - term reference operating range for the Shanghai nickel price is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME nickel 3M contract is 13,500 - 15,500 dollars/ton [15][16][18]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term demand and inventory reduction have been well - priced. The current lithium price is at a high level this year. It is necessary to pay attention to potential disturbances such as supply release and slowdown in demand growth. The reference operating range for the main lithium carbonate contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange today is 88,800 - 94,600 yuan/ton [20][21]. - **Alumina**: The overseas ore price is expected to decline after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern at the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, but the current price is close to the cost line of most manufacturers, and the follow - up production reduction expectation is strengthened. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton [23][24]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel market is still in an over - supply situation, demand is weak, and costs are moving down. The stainless - steel price is expected to continue the weak downward trend [26][27]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cost side of the cast aluminum alloy has strong price support, while the demand side performance is relatively average. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [29][30]. 3. Summary of Each Metal's Content Copper - **Market Information**: On Friday, the LME copper 3M contract rose 0.86% to 10,778 dollars/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 86,180 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 2,900 tons to 155,025 tons. The domestic Shanghai Futures Exchange weekly copper inventory slightly increased, and the daily warehouse receipts decreased by 0.5 to 50,000 tons. The domestic copper spot import loss was about 500 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference narrowed [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Fed's attitude has turned dovish, and the probability of an interest - rate cut in December has rebounded. The copper raw material supply remains tight, and the downstream start - up rate is relatively strong. The copper price has strong support below and is expected to fluctuate in the short term [5]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The aluminum price rebounded after a decline. On Friday, the LME aluminum slightly rose 0.05% to 2,808 dollars/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 21,390 yuan/ton. The Shanghai aluminum weighted contract position decreased by 42,000 to 612,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts slightly decreased to 69,000 tons. The domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories in three major regions decreased, and the aluminum rod processing fee increased. The LME aluminum inventory increased by 4,000 tons to 548,000 tons [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The global equity market correction and geopolitical tensions have made the market cautious. The overall global aluminum ingot inventory is relatively low, and there are supply disruption expectations. After the shock adjustment, the aluminum price may further strengthen [7]. Lead - **Market Information**: Last Friday, the Shanghai lead index fell 0.31% to 17,165 yuan/ton. The LME lead 3S fell 17.5 dollars to 1,997.5 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 17,075 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 25 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead ingot futures inventory was 30,000 tons, and the domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 36,400 tons [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of lead ingots continues to increase, the domestic battery enterprise start - up rate remains stable, and the export of lead - acid batteries continues to decline. The lead price is expected to operate weakly in the short term [9]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Last Friday, the Shanghai zinc index rose 0.03% to 22,395 yuan/ton. The LME zinc 3S fell 0.5 dollars to 2,989.5 dollars/ton. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 22,440 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc ingot futures inventory was 72,900 tons, and the domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 152,700 tons [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc ore import decreased significantly in October, and the zinc ore supply is tight due to the winter stockpiling demand of smelters. But in the long run, the zinc industry is still in an over - supply cycle. The zinc price is expected to operate weakly in the short term [11]. Tin - **Market Information**: On November 21, 2025, the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 291,310 yuan/ton, down 0.39%. The production of tin ingot smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi is generally stable at a high level, and the raw material supply is tight. In October, the import of tin concentrate increased slightly. The demand in emerging fields provides support for the tin price, and the start - up rate of tin solder enterprises has slightly recovered. The national main tin ingot social inventory increased by 311 tons to 8,245 tons [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term tin supply and demand are in a tight balance. Considering the high - price inhibitory effect on consumption and the marginal alleviation of the mine - end shortage, the tin price is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see [13]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Last week, the nickel price continued to fall. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 114,130 yuan/ton on Friday, a decline of 2.70%, and the LME nickel was quoted at 14,620 dollars/ton on Friday, a weekly decline of 1.75%. The nickel ore price was stable with a weak trend, and the nickel iron price continued to fall [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term pressure on the nickel fundamentals is obvious. The supply of refined nickel raw materials is further supplemented, the market demand has no increase, and the inventory continues to accumulate. The nickel price may continue to be under pressure [16][18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: On November 21, the MMLC lithium carbonate spot index fell 6.87% to 92,211 yuan. The battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices both decreased significantly. The LC2601 contract closed at 91,020 yuan, down 8.04% [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term demand and inventory reduction have been fully priced. The current lithium price is at a high level, and it is necessary to pay attention to potential disturbances such as supply release and slowdown in demand growth [21]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On November 21, 2025, the alumina index fell 0.65% to 2,737 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot price was 2,775 yuan/ton, with a premium of 38 yuan/ton over the 12 - contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price was 319 dollars/ton, and the import loss was 41 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 4,200 tons to 250,900 tons [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas ore price is expected to decline after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern at the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, but the current price is close to the cost line of most manufacturers, and the follow - up production reduction expectation is strengthened. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Friday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,290 yuan/ton, up 0.04%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets were stable or slightly increased. The raw material prices such as nickel iron and scrap steel decreased. The futures inventory decreased by 1,726 tons to 70,365 tons, and the social inventory decreased to 1,071,700 tons [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The stainless - steel market is still in an over - supply situation, demand is weak, and costs are moving down. The stainless - steel price is expected to continue the weak downward trend [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: On Friday, the cast aluminum alloy price fell. The main AD2601 contract closed at 20,595 yuan/ton, down 0.89%. The weighted contract position decreased to 24,300 lots, and the trading volume increased. The domestic mainstream ADC12 average price decreased by 150 yuan/ton. The domestic three - region aluminum alloy ingot inventory decreased by 300 tons to 50,600 tons [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost side of the cast aluminum alloy has strong price support, while the demand side performance is relatively average. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [30].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: Global soybean supply has decreased compared to the 24/25 season, and the bottom of import cost may have emerged, but upward space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybeans have high inventory, and soybean meal is expected to oscillate [2][4]. - **Palm Oil**: The over - expected production in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the palm oil market, but recent improvement in exports provides support. It is advisable to view it with an oscillatory perspective and turn bullish if production decline signals appear [6][8]. - **Sugar**: The market expects an increase in production in the northern hemisphere in the 2025/26 season, with limited upward space for raw sugar. It is recommended to wait for a rebound and then short [11][12]. - **Cotton**: After the peak season, demand is not too bad, and the previous price decline has digested the bearish impact of high yields. Cotton prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [15][16]. - **Eggs**: Before the spot price realizes seasonal increases, the futures market is expected to oscillate. In the medium - term, after the stocking period, focus on supply and wait for a rebound to short [17][18]. - **Pigs**: Supply pressure remains high, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short near - month contracts or conduct reverse spreads [20][21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Soybean and Soybean Meal** - **Market Information**: Last Friday, CBOT soybeans first fell and then rose, supported by Chinese purchases. Brazilian soybean premiums decreased slightly last week, and the cost of imported soybeans declined. Domestic soybean meal spot prices were stable over the weekend, and trading and pick - up were good last week. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume to be 2.3173 million tons, slightly lower than last week's 2.3344 million tons. The feed enterprise inventory days decreased to 7.98 days last week [2]. - **Strategy**: Global soybean supply has decreased, and the bottom of import cost may have appeared. Domestic soybean inventory is at a high level, and soybean meal is expected to oscillate [4]. **Palm Oil** - **Market Information**: From November 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased compared to the previous month, and production showed a mixed trend. Domestic vegetable oil prices are expected to be weak. Last Friday, domestic palm oil prices fell, and the spot basis was stable [6]. - **Strategy**: Over - expected production suppresses the market, but improved exports provide support. It is advisable to view it with an oscillatory perspective and turn bullish if production decline signals appear [8]. **Sugar** - **Market Information**: On Friday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices oscillated and declined. The international sugar market is expected to have a surplus of 1.63 million tons in the 2025/26 season. China's sugar imports increased in 2025. India's sugar production increased significantly this year [10][11]. - **Strategy**: The market expects an increase in production in the northern hemisphere in the 2025/26 season, with limited upward space for raw sugar. It is recommended to wait for a rebound and then short [12]. **Cotton** - **Market Information**: On Friday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices oscillated narrowly. The global cotton production in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase. China's cotton imports decreased in 2025, and the spinning mill's operating rate decreased slightly [14][15]. - **Strategy**: After the peak season, demand is not too bad, and the previous price decline has digested the bearish impact of high yields. Cotton prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [16]. **Eggs** - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable over the weekend, with some local increases. Supply pressure remains, but inventory pressure has eased after the temperature drop, and downstream replenishment willingness has increased [17]. - **Strategy**: Before the spot price realizes seasonal increases, the futures market is expected to oscillate. In the medium - term, after the stocking period, focus on supply and wait for a rebound to short [18]. **Pigs** - **Market Information**: Pig prices fluctuated over the weekend. Supply is normal, and terminal demand is limited, so pig prices are expected to be stable today with some local adjustments [20]. - **Strategy**: Supply pressure remains high, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short near - month contracts or conduct reverse spreads [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market shows a high - level oscillating upward trend for the Shanghai Composite Index, large - cap blue - chip stocks, small - and medium - cap stocks, and ChiNext stocks [2]. - The implied volatility of financial options has declined but remains at a relatively high level of fluctuation [2]. - For ETF options, it is suitable to construct a bullish buyer strategy and a call option bull spread combination strategy; for stock index options, it is suitable to construct a bullish seller strategy, a call option bull spread combination strategy, and an arbitrage strategy between synthetic long futures of options and short futures [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Important Indexes - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,834.89, down 96.16 points or 2.45%, with a trading volume of 824.9 billion yuan and an increase of 113.6 billion yuan in trading volume [3]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12,538.07, down 442.75 points or 3.41%, with a trading volume of 1,140.7 billion yuan and an increase of 143.9 billion yuan in trading volume [3]. - The Shanghai 50 Index closed at 2,955.85, down 52.44 points or 1.74%, with a trading volume of 126.3 billion yuan and an increase of 25.3 billion yuan in trading volume [3]. - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4,453.61, down 111.34 points or 2.44%, with a trading volume of 481.3 billion yuan and an increase of 66.2 billion yuan in trading volume [3]. - The CSI 500 Index closed at 6,817.41, down 244.54 points or 3.46%, with a trading volume of 311 billion yuan and an increase of 56.8 billion yuan in trading volume [3]. - The CSI 1000 Index closed at 7,067.70, down 272.71 points or 3.72%, with a trading volume of 408.7 billion yuan and an increase of 52 billion yuan in trading volume [3]. 3.2 Option - Based ETF Market - The Shanghai 50 ETF closed at 3.101, down 0.055 or 1.74%, with a trading volume of 7.9264 million shares and an increase of 7.8877 million shares in trading volume, and a trading value of 2.474 billion yuan and an increase of 1.249 billion yuan in trading value [4]. - The Shanghai 300 ETF closed at 4.564, down 0.112 or 2.40%, with a trading volume of 14.964 million shares and an increase of 14.9078 million shares in trading volume, and a trading value of 6.884 billion yuan and an increase of 4.24 billion yuan in trading value [4]. - Other ETFs also have corresponding closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and trading value changes [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Volume and Position PCR - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of different option varieties have different values and changes, which can be used to analyze the strength of the option underlying and the turning point of the market [5][6]. 3.4 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Points - The pressure and support points of different option varieties can be seen from the strike prices of the maximum open interest of call and put options [7][9]. 3.5 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different option varieties is measured by the at - the - money implied volatility and the weighted implied volatility, and there are differences in their values and changes [10][11]. 3.6 Strategies and Recommendations - The financial option sector is divided into large - cap blue - chip stocks, small - and medium - cap stocks, and ChiNext stocks, and different sectors have corresponding option strategies and recommendations [12]. - For example, for the Shanghai 50 ETF, the underlying shows a high - level oscillating and falling trend, and a neutral - biased seller combination strategy can be constructed; for the Shanghai 300 ETF, a short - volatility strategy of selling call and put options can be constructed [13].

1. Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the investment rating of the industry in the report. 2. Core Views - The agricultural products options market shows different trends. Oilseeds and oils are weakly volatile, while agricultural by - products and soft commodities have their own market conditions. For example, sugar has a slight fluctuation, and cotton is in a weak consolidation. Corn and starch in the cereal category are in a weak and narrow - range consolidation. [2] - The strategy is to construct an option portfolio strategy mainly based on sellers, and also use spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns. [2] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Market Overview of Underlying Futures - Different agricultural product options have different price changes. For example, soybean No.1 (A2601) closed at 4,101, down 6 points or 0.15%; soybean No.2 (B2601) closed at 3,679, down 26 points or 0.70%. [3] - There are also changes in trading volume and open interest. For instance, the trading volume of soybean No.1 was 138,600 lots, a decrease of 25,400 lots, and the open interest was 218,200 lots, a decrease of 19,500 lots. [3] 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The PCR indicators of different options vary. For example, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 was 0.66, a decrease of 0.06; the open - interest PCR was 1.10, a decrease of 0.01. [4] 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of different options can be seen from the maximum open - interest strike prices. For example, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 4,200, and the support level is 4,050. [5] 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different options also shows different characteristics. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean No.1 was 11.99%, and the weighted implied volatility was 12.89%, an increase of 0.16%. [6] 3.5 Strategy and Suggestions 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - Soybean No.1 - Fundamental analysis: China's purchase of US soybeans and the decline in the import cost of Brazilian soybeans have a slightly negative impact. The market trend has been in a rebound after a decline since August. [7] - Option factor research: The implied volatility of soybean No.1 options is below the historical average, and the open - interest PCR is above 1.00, indicating a volatile market. The pressure level is 4,200, and the support level is 3,900. [7] - Option strategy suggestions: Construct a neutral short call + put option combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging. [7] 3.5.2 Meal Options - Soybean Meal - Fundamental analysis: The average daily trading volume and delivery volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills have increased, and the basis has also increased. The market trend has been a rebound after a decline. [9] - Option factor research: The implied volatility of soybean meal options is below the historical average, and the open - interest PCR is below 0.80, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 2,950, and the support level is 2,800. [9] - Option strategy suggestions: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging. [9] 3.5.3 Oilseeds and Oils Options - Palm Oil - Fundamental analysis: Malaysia's palm oil production and inventory situation may lead to a high - level inventory at the end of the year. The market trend has been in a downward trend since November. [9] - Option factor research: The implied volatility of palm oil options is below the historical average, and the open - interest PCR is around 0.80, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 9,500, and the support level is 9,000. [9] - Option strategy suggestions: Construct a bear spread strategy for put options, a short - biased call + put option combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging. [9] 3.5.4 Agricultural By - product Options - Live Pigs - Fundamental analysis: The supply of live pigs has increased, and the demand has also been stimulated by the temperature drop. The market trend has been in a weak downward trend. [10] - Option factor research: The implied volatility of live - pig options is above the historical average, and the open - interest PCR is below 0.50, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 14,000, and the support level is 11,000. [10] - Option strategy suggestions: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy, and a covered call strategy for spot hedging. [10] 3.5.5 Agricultural By - product Options - Eggs - Fundamental analysis: The domestic egg price has declined, the supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The market trend has been in a volatile rebound. [11] - Option factor research: The implied volatility of egg options is at a high level, and the open - interest PCR is below 0.60. The pressure level is 4,000, and the support level is 2,800. [11] - Option strategy suggestions: Construct a neutral short call + put option combination strategy. [11] 3.5.6 Agricultural By - product Options - Apples - Fundamental analysis: The apple production in 2025 has decreased significantly compared with the previous season. The market trend has been in a rising and volatile state. [11] - Option factor research: The implied volatility of apple options is above the historical average, and the open - interest PCR is above 0.90, indicating strong support below. The pressure level is 10,000, and the support level is 8,000. [11] - Option strategy suggestions: Construct a long - biased short call + put option combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging. [11] 3.5.7 Agricultural By - product Options - Red Dates - Fundamental analysis: The acquisition progress of red dates in Xinjiang is in the range of 4 - 80%. The market trend has been in a weak downward trend. [12] - Option factor research: The implied volatility of red - date options has risen rapidly to above the historical average, and the open - interest PCR is below 0.50. The pressure level is 12,600, and the support level is 10,000. [12] - Option strategy suggestions: Construct a short - biased wide - straddle option combination strategy, and a covered call strategy for spot hedging. [12] 3.5.8 Soft Commodity Options - Sugar - Fundamental analysis: The spot price of sugar in Guangxi has declined, and the basis and import profit have also weakened. The market trend has been in a weak downward trend. [12] - Option factor research: The implied volatility of sugar options is at a low level, and the open - interest PCR is around 0.60, indicating a range - bound market. The pressure level is 5,700, and the support level is 5,400. [12] - Option strategy suggestions: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging. [12] 3.5.9 Soft Commodity Options - Cotton - Fundamental analysis: The global cotton production in the 2025/26 season has increased. The market trend has been in a short - term weak state. [13] - Option factor research: The implied volatility of cotton options is at a low level, and the open - interest PCR is below 1.00, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 13,600, and the support level is 13,000. [13] - Option strategy suggestions: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy, and a covered call strategy with a put option for spot hedging. [13] 3.5.10 Cereal Options - Corn - Fundamental analysis: The national average price of corn has increased slightly. The market trend has been in a weak rebound. [13] - Option factor research: The implied volatility of corn options is at a low level, and the open - interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 2,200, and the support level is 2,000. [13] - Option strategy suggestions: Construct a neutral short call + put option combination strategy. [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock market has a certain degree of short - term uncertainty due to previous rises and overseas market adjustments, but the medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover in the fourth quarter, with attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect and the increasing allocation power [8]. - For precious metals, it is recommended to hold a bottom position and wait and see, with the Fed's easing policy expected to further drive prices in December [10]. - Most non - ferrous metals are expected to be in a state of shock in the short term, with different support and pressure factors [13][15][18]. - The steel market is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, but demand may improve with policy implementation [36]. - The energy and chemical market shows different trends, with some products recommended for long - term strategies and others for short - term caution [56][58][60]. - The agricultural product market also has various trends, such as short - term weak operation for some and shock - based operation for others [81][86]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **Market Information**: The US government may allow NVIDIA to sell H200 chips to China; the SASAC held a central enterprise specialization integration promotion meeting; Changxin Storage released new DDR5 products; a Goldman Sachs partner said the US stock market may continue to sell off [2]. - **Strategy View**: After previous rises and influenced by overseas market adjustments, the short - term index is uncertain, but the medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bond - **Market Information**: The main contracts of TL, T, and TF decreased on Friday, while TS remained unchanged. The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates, and the US PMI data showed mixed results. The central bank conducted a net injection of 1622 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy View**: The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover in the fourth quarter, with attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect and the increasing allocation power [8]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold prices rose slightly, and silver prices fell. The US 10 - year Treasury yield and the US dollar index were reported. Fed officials' "dovish" remarks supported precious metal prices [9]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to hold a bottom position and wait and see, with the Fed's easing policy expected to further drive prices in December [10]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: The copper price rebounded after a decline, with LME copper inventory decreasing and domestic spot premiums rising [12]. - **Strategy View**: The copper price is expected to be in a state of shock in the short term, with strong support at the bottom [13]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The aluminum price rebounded after a decline, with domestic and overseas inventory changes and improved downstream procurement sentiment [14]. - **Strategy View**: The aluminum price is expected to strengthen after an oscillatory adjustment, with strong support [15]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The zinc price rose slightly, with changes in inventory and basis [16]. - **Strategy View**: The zinc price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with the zinc industry still in an over - supply cycle [18]. Lead - **Market Information**: The lead price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [19]. - **Strategy View**: The lead price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with relatively loose supply [19]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The nickel price continued to fall, with changes in spot premiums and cost [20]. - **Strategy View**: The nickel price is expected to be under pressure in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [21][22]. Tin - **Market Information**: The tin price fell slightly, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory. The safety situation in the DRC may affect tin mines [23]. - **Strategy View**: The tin price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [24]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The carbonate lithium price fell, with changes in spot and futures prices [25]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to pay attention to potential disturbances and the reference range of the main contract [26]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [28]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, with attention to supply - side policies [29]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel price rose slightly, with changes in inventory and cost [30]. - **Strategy View**: The stainless steel price is expected to continue to decline weakly, with an over - supply situation [30]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The cast aluminum alloy price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [31]. - **Strategy View**: The price is expected to be in a state of shock in the short term [33]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: The steel price rose slightly, with changes in inventory and basis [35]. - **Strategy View**: The steel price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, but demand may improve with policy implementation [36]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore price fell slightly, with changes in inventory and basis [37]. - **Strategy View**: The iron ore price is expected to oscillate within a range, with strong supply and stable demand [38][39]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass price fell, and the soda ash price fell. There were changes in inventory and basis [40][41]. - **Strategy View**: The glass price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and the soda ash price is expected to be weakly volatile [40][41]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The manganese silicon price fell, and the ferrosilicon price rose slightly. There were changes in inventory and basis [42]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and price, and to look for opportunities to rebound [44][45]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon price fell, and the polysilicon price rose slightly. There were changes in inventory and basis [46][49]. - **Strategy View**: The industrial silicon price is expected to oscillate, and the polysilicon price is expected to oscillate within a wide range [48][50]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price oscillated and adjusted, with changes in tire factory start - up rates and inventory [52][54]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to have a bullish strategy with stop - loss settings and partial hedging [56]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The crude oil price fell, and there were changes in refined oil prices and inventory [57]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and test OPEC's export price - support willingness [58]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The methanol price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [59]. - **Strategy View**: The methanol price is expected to continue to decline weakly, with high inventory pressure [60]. Urea - **Market Information**: The urea price rose slightly, with changes in inventory and basis [61]. - **Strategy View**: The urea price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [61]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The pure benzene price was unchanged, and the styrene price rose. There were changes in inventory and basis [62]. - **Strategy View**: The styrene price may stop falling in stages, with cost and demand factors [63]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC price was unchanged, with changes in inventory and basis [64]. - **Strategy View**: The PVC price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to go short in the medium term [66]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [67]. - **Strategy View**: The ethylene glycol price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to go short in the medium term [68]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [69]. - **Strategy View**: The PTA price is expected to be affected by supply, demand, and valuation factors [71]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: The para - xylene price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [72]. - **Strategy View**: The para - xylene price is expected to have a risk of valuation correction, with high supply and low demand [73]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [74]. - **Strategy View**: The PE price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with cost and demand factors [75]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [77]. - **Strategy View**: The PP price is expected to be affected by cost and demand factors, and may be supported in the first quarter of next year [78]. Agricultural Products Category Pig - **Market Information**: The pig price fluctuated, with normal supply and limited demand [80]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go short on the near - month contract or do reverse spreads [81]. Egg - **Market Information**: The egg price was stable with partial increases, with reduced inventory pressure and increased replenishment willingness [82]. - **Strategy View**: The egg price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to go short after a rebound in the medium term [83][84]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The soybean meal price was stable, with changes in import cost, inventory, and demand [85]. - **Strategy View**: The soybean meal price is expected to oscillate, with cost support and pressure on crushing margins [86]. Edible Oils - **Market Information**: The edible oil price fell, with weak palm oil export data and high supply [87]. - **Strategy View**: The palm oil price is recommended to be viewed with an oscillatory perspective, and turn to a bullish strategy if production decreases [88][89]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The sugar price fell, with an expected global surplus in the 2025/26 season and increased imports [90][91]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait for a rebound and then go short [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The cotton price oscillated narrowly, with changes in production, inventory, and demand [92][93]. - **Strategy View**: The cotton price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with no strong driving force [94].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector is mainly divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. Each sector selects some varieties for option strategy suggestions. Each option variety compiles an option strategy report according to the underlying market analysis, option factor research, and option strategy suggestions [9]. - The overall strategy is to construct option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various energy - chemical option underlying futures contracts, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, methanol, etc. For example, the latest price of crude oil SC2601 is 446, with a decrease of 7 and a decline rate of 1.46%, trading volume of 14.15 million lots, an increase of 2.24 million lots, open interest of 4.20 million lots, and an increase of 0.29 million lots [4]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR of various energy - chemical options are provided. For instance, the volume PCR of crude oil options is 0.87, with a change of - 0.03, and the open interest PCR is 0.78, with a change of - 0.00. These indicators are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and whether the underlying market has a turning point [5]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of various energy - chemical options are given. For example, the pressure point of crude oil options is 540, and the support point is 460. These levels are determined from the strike prices where the maximum open interest of call and put options is located [6]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of various energy - chemical options are presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, its change, annual average, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, historical 20 - day volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil options is 27.545, and the weighted implied volatility is 29.25, with a change of 2.31 [7]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Suggestions 3.5.1 Energy - Class Options: Crude Oil - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The demand of US refineries has stabilized and rebounded. Shale oil production has little fluctuation during the recent oil price decline. OPEC's short - term supply remains flat. Libya's short - term exports have declined but are expected to recover in the next two weeks. The restart of Kuwait's refinery in December weakens the support for low - sulfur fuel oil [8]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of crude oil options fluctuates above the average. The open interest PCR is below 0.80, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 540, and the support level is 460 [8]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: - Directional strategy: None. - Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy, such as S_SC2601P445, S_SC2601P450, S_SC2601C465, S_SC2601C470. - Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy, e.g., LONG_SC2601 + BUY_SC2601P460 + SELL_SC2601C485 [8]. 3.5.2 Energy - Class Options: Liquefied Petroleum Gas - **Underlying Market Analysis**: US propane has started to draw down inventory, but it is still at a historical high. Crude oil, as the cost end, is affected by both supply - surplus pressure and geopolitical issues. LPG has shown a market trend of an oversold rebound with pressure above [10]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of LPG options has dropped significantly to near the lower - than - average level. The open interest PCR is around 0.80, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 4500, and the support level is 4250 [10]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: - Directional strategy: None. - Volatility strategy: Construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy, such as S_PG2601P4200 and S_PG2601C4350. - Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy, e.g., LONG_PG2601 + BUY_PG2601P4250 + SELL_PG2601C4350 [10]. 3.5.3 Alcohol - Class Options: Methanol - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Port inventory is decreasing from a high level, and enterprise inventory is also decreasing. The market has shown a weak downward trend with pressure above [10]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of methanol options fluctuates around the historical average. The open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating a weak and volatile market. The pressure level is 2500, and the support level is 2000 [10]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: - Directional strategy: Construct a bearish spread strategy with put options, such as B_MA2601P2025 and S_MA2601P1950. - Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy, such as S_MA2601P2075 and S_MA2601C2000. - Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy, e.g., LONG_MA2601 + BUY_MA2601P2025 + SELL_MA2601C2150 [10]. 3.5.4 Alcohol - Class Options: Ethylene Glycol - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Port inventory is expected to slow down in the accumulation rate. Domestic device unexpected maintenance has increased, and overseas arrivals in December are expected to decline. The market has shown a weak downward trend with pressure above [11]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of ethylene glycol options fluctuates near the lower - than - average level. The open interest PCR is below 0.70, indicating strong bearish power. The pressure level is 4500, and the support level is 4000 [11]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: - Directional strategy: Construct a bearish spread strategy with put options, such as B_EG2601P3950 and S_EG2601P3800. - Volatility strategy: Construct a short - volatility strategy, such as S_EG2601P3850 and S_EG2601C4000. - Spot long - hedging strategy: LONG_EG2601 + BUY_EG2601P3900 + SELL_EG2601C4050 [11]. 3.5.5 Polyolefin - Class Options: Polypropylene - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The overall inventory pressure of polyolefins is large. The market of polypropylene has shown a weak downward trend with bearish pressure above [11]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of polypropylene options has dropped to near the average level. The open interest PCR is around 0.70, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 7000, and the support level is 6300 [11]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: - Directional strategy: Construct a bearish spread strategy with put options, such as B_PP2601P6500 and S_PP2601P6300. - Volatility strategy: None. - Spot long - hedging strategy: LONG_PP2601 + BUY_PP2601P6400 + SELL_PP2601C6600 [11]. 3.5.6 Rubber - Class Options: Rubber - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The operating rate of tire factories has declined. The market has shown a weak consolidation trend with support below and pressure above [12]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of rubber options has decreased to near the lower - than - average level after a rapid increase. The open interest PCR is below 0.60. The pressure level has dropped significantly to 16000, and the support level is 15000 [12]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: - Directional strategy: None. - Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy, such as S_RU2601P14500, S_RU2601P14750, S_RU2601C15250, S_RU2601C15500. - Spot hedging strategy: None [12]. 3.5.7 Polyester - Class Options: PTA - **Underlying Market Analysis**: PTA inventory has increased slightly, but downstream load remains high, and the expected increase in maintenance in November is expected to lead to a phased inventory drawdown. The market has shown a rebound trend with pressure above [12]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of PTA options fluctuates above the average level. The open interest PCR is around 0.70, indicating a volatile market. The pressure level is 4700, and the support level is 4300 [12]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: - Directional strategy: None. - Volatility strategy: Construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy, such as S_TA2601P4600, S_TA2601P4650, S_TA2601C4750, S_TA2601C4700. - Spot hedging strategy: None [12]. 3.5.8 Alkali - Class Options: Caustic Soda - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The average utilization rate of caustic soda production capacity has increased in some regions and decreased in others. The market has shown a weak bearish trend with pressure above [13]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of caustic soda options fluctuates at a relatively high level. The open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 3000, and the support level is 2200 [13]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: - Directional strategy: Construct a bearish spread strategy, such as B_SH2601P2320 and S_SH2601P2200. - Volatility strategy: None. - Spot collar hedging strategy: LONG_SH2601 + BUY_SH2601P2280 + SELL_SH2601C2400 [13]. 3.5.9 Alkali - Class Options: Soda Ash - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Soda ash factory inventory has decreased. The market has shown a low - level weak consolidation trend with pressure above and support below [13]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of soda ash options fluctuates at a relatively high historical level. The open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating strong bearish pressure. The pressure level is 1860, and the support level is 1100 [13]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: - Directional strategy: Construct a bearish spread strategy, such as B_SA2601P1200 and S_SA2601P1120. - Volatility strategy: Construct a short - volatility combination strategy, such as S_SA2601P1160 and S_SA2601C1200. - Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy, e.g., LONG_SA2601 + BUY_SA2601P1160 + SELL_SA26011C1240 [13]. 3.5.10 Other Options: Urea - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Enterprise inventory has decreased, and port inventory is expected to increase. The market has shown a low - level consolidation and gradual rebound trend [14]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of urea options fluctuates slightly around the historical average level. The open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating strong bearish pressure. The pressure level is 1800, and the support level is 1600 [14]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: - Directional strategy: None. - Volatility strategy: Construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy, such as S_UR2601P1640 and S_UR2601C1680. - Spot hedging strategy: LONG_UR2601 + S_UR2601P1660 + SELL_UR2601C1720 [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For non - ferrous metals, which are showing a bullish upward trend, a seller neutral volatility strategy is recommended [2]. - For the black metals sector, which maintains a large - amplitude fluctuating market, a short - volatility combination strategy is suitable [2]. - For precious metals, which are rebounding and rising, a bull spread combination strategy is recommended [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Copper (CU2601): The latest price is 86,180, up 180 with a 0.21% increase. The trading volume is 9.89 million lots, up 1.45 million lots, and the open interest is 19.02 million lots, up 0.24 million lots [3]. - Aluminum (AL2601): The latest price is 21,390, down 75 with a 0.35% decrease. The trading volume is 26.77 million lots, up 9.79 million lots, and the open interest is 30.20 million lots, down 3.66 million lots [3]. - Zinc (ZN2601): The latest price is 22,350, down 135 with a 0.60% decrease. The trading volume is 9.08 million lots, up 4.20 million lots, and the open interest is 9.19 million lots, up 0.30 million lots [3]. - And so on for other metals including lead, nickel, tin, etc. [3] 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Copper: The volume PCR is 0.87, up 0.22, and the open - interest PCR is 0.83, up 0.05 [4]. - Aluminum: The volume PCR is 0.70, up 0.20, and the open - interest PCR is 0.70, up 0.01 [4]. - Zinc: The volume PCR is 0.84, down 0.43, and the open - interest PCR is 1.04, up 0.04 [4]. - And so on for other metals [4] 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Copper: The pressure point is 90,000, and the support point is 82,000 [5]. - Aluminum: The pressure point is 22,000, and the support point is 21,000 [5]. - Zinc: The pressure point is 23,000, and the support point is 21,600 [5]. - And so on for other metals [5] 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Copper: The at - the - money implied volatility is 12.63%, the weighted implied volatility is 20.12%, up 2.56% [6]. - Aluminum: The at - the - money implied volatility is 10.38%, the weighted implied volatility is 14.84%, up 1.67% [6]. - Zinc: The at - the - money implied volatility is 10.03%, the weighted implied volatility is 15.80%, up 2.99% [6]. - And so on for other metals [6] 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations 3.5.1 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Fundamentally, the inventories of the three major exchanges increased by 38,000 tons. The market has been in a bullish high - level oscillating pattern. Option - wise, the implied volatility is above the historical average, and the open - interest PCR is around 0.80. Strategies include a short - volatility seller option combination and a spot long - hedging strategy [7]. - **Aluminum**: Fundamentally, inventories showed a mixed trend. The market has a bullish high - level oscillating pattern. Option - wise, the implied volatility is at the historical average, and the open - interest PCR is around 0.70. Strategies include a bull spread combination, a short - call and short - put option combination, and a spot collar strategy [9]. - **Zinc**: Fundamentally, domestic social inventories decreased slightly. The market has an oscillating recovery pattern with upper pressure. Option - wise, the implied volatility decreased to the historical average, and the open - interest PCR is around 1.00. Strategies include a short - neutral call and put option combination and a spot collar strategy [9]. - **Nickel**: Fundamentally, global visible inventories increased slightly, and terminal consumption was weak. The market has a bearish oscillating pattern. Option - wise, the implied volatility is below the average, and the open - interest PCR is around 0.70. Strategies include a short - bearish call and put option combination and a spot covered - call strategy [10]. - **Tin**: Fundamentally, the resumption of tin mines in Myanmar was slow, and production in some areas was limited. The market has a short - term high - level oscillating pattern with lower support. Option - wise, the implied volatility is below the historical average, and the open - interest PCR is around 0.60. Strategies include a short - volatility strategy and a spot collar strategy [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Fundamentally, inventory depletion narrowed. The market has a recent bullish pattern with lower support. Option - wise, the implied volatility rose rapidly and remained at a high level, and the open - interest PCR is around 0.90. Strategies include a short - bullish call and put option combination and a spot long - hedging strategy [11]. 3.5.2 Precious Metals - **Silver**: Fundamentally, inventories in SHFE and COMEX decreased, and domestic demand was resilient. The market has a pattern of rapid decline after a bullish trend followed by an oscillating recovery. Option - wise, the implied volatility is at a historical high, and the open - interest PCR is above 1.00. Strategies include a bull spread combination, a short - bullish volatility option seller combination, and a spot hedging strategy [12]. 3.5.3 Black Metals - **Rebar**: Fundamentally, social and factory inventories decreased. The market has a bearish pattern with upper pressure. Option - wise, the implied volatility is below the historical average, and the open - interest PCR is below 0.60. Strategies include a short - bearish call and put option combination and a spot covered - call strategy [13]. - **Iron Ore**: Fundamentally, port inventories decreased, and daily dispatch volume increased. The market has a bearish oscillating downward pattern with upper and lower support. Option - wise, the implied volatility is around the historical average, and the open - interest PCR is 1.40. Strategies include a short - bearish call and put option combination and a spot long - collar strategy [13]. - **Ferroalloys (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon)**: For manganese silicon, production decreased, and inventories were at a high level. The market has a bearish pattern with upper pressure. Option - wise, the implied volatility is at the historical average, and the open - interest PCR is around 0.80. Strategies include a short - volatility strategy. For ferrosilicon, similar analysis and corresponding strategies are provided [14]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Fundamentally, inventories decreased. The market has a large - amplitude oscillating bearish pattern with upper pressure. Option - wise, the implied volatility remained at a high level, and the open - interest PCR is below 0.60. Strategies include a short - volatility call and put option combination and a spot hedging strategy [14]. - **Glass**: Fundamentally, factory inventories increased. The market has a bearish pattern with upper pressure. Option - wise, the implied volatility remained at a high level, and the open - interest PCR is below 0.60. Strategies include a bear spread combination, a short - volatility call and put option combination, and a spot long - collar strategy [15].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy significantly rebounded after the key voting members of the Fed spoke last Friday, and the overseas interest - rate cut cycle will continue, but the further driving force will be concentrated in December. The Fed will hold its last interest - rate meeting of the year and release an economic outlook report on December 10 (local time), and Trump will probably complete the selection of the new Fed chair in late December. Currently, it is recommended to keep the bottom position in precious - metal strategies and mainly wait and see. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 896 - 940 yuan/gram, and that for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 11367 - 12639 yuan/kilogram [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold rose 0.06% to 935.80 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver fell 0.43% to 11893.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX Gold was reported at 4062.80 dollars/ounce, COMEX Silver was reported at 49.66 dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.06%, and the US Dollar Index was reported at 100.21. In the context of the weak performance of the US stock market, several Fed voting members "rescued the market dovishly" last Friday, which gave relatively strong short - term support to precious - metal prices [2] 3.2 Inventory Changes - As of November 21, the Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory decreased by 50.08 tons to 519.3 tons compared with the 17th, and the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 274.73 tons to 14329.5 tons during the same period. The current Shanghai Silver 2512 contract has a premium over the 2602 contract, indicating that the silver demand side in the domestic fourth quarter still has resilience. The COMEX silver inventory continues to decline, but the current overseas spot has not become the main driving force, and the one - month spot implied lease rate of silver has now dropped to 3.93% [3] 3.3 Data Comparison - The report provides a detailed comparison of key gold and silver data on November 21, 2025, and November 20, 2025, including closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, and inventories in different markets such as COMEX, LBMA, SHFE, and AuT + D/AgT + D, and shows the daily changes, daily percentage changes, and historical quantiles of these data [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current price of manganese - silicon has limited room to decline further, but it may take some time to reverse the downward trend. It is still recommended to closely monitor the situation of the manganese ore end [2][10][11] Group 3: Summary According to the Content Current Market Situation of Manganese - Silicon - The current manganese - silicon futures price is still oscillating in the range of 5,600 - 6,000 yuan/ton. In the past week, the price has significantly dropped and approached the support level near 5,600 yuan/ton, showing obvious weakness [4] Factors Causing the Price Change - In the November macro - vacuum period, the overseas expectation of a December interest rate cut has significantly weakened, and the market's concern about the "AI narrative" bubble has increased, leading to a significant decline in the prices of US stocks, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals, which in turn has weakened the overall sentiment in the domestic A - share and commodity markets [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission's statement on suspected coal "supply guarantee" during the heating season has led to concerns about the relaxation of coal supply. Coupled with short - term unfalsifiable expectations such as Mongolian coal rushing to meet the quota in the fourth quarter and "poor - quality" coking coal warehouse receipts, funds have significantly increased short positions in coking coal, causing the coking coal price to drop by more than 14% in the past month, suppressing the risk appetite of the entire black metal sector [4] Fundamental Analysis - Although the supply of manganese - silicon has been continuously decreasing recently, the demand remains sluggish, the overall supply - demand structure remains loose, and the inventory of sample factories has continued to accumulate, reaching the highest level in the same period in history [8] - The current cost of manganese - silicon in Inner Mongolia is close to 5,800 yuan/ton according to Steel Union statistics and close to 5,700 yuan/ton according to Ferro - Alloys Online statistics. The current futures price of around 5,600 yuan/ton has already reflected the loose fundamentals [8] Outlook for the Future - It is difficult for the current fundamentals to drive the price down significantly. A significant decline would require a macro "black swan" event or a collapse in coal prices similar to that in the first half of this year [2][10] - There is relatively limited room for the current price of manganese - silicon to decline further, but it may take some time to reverse the downward trend [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [2]. - For methanol, the futures market is in a weak downward trend. High port inventories persistently suppress prices and the monthly structure. Supply remains high while demand shows little change. The market is trading on weak - reality logic, and prices may further decline [4]. - For urea, prices are oscillating at the bottom and showing relative resilience. With improved demand and cost support, the downside is limited, and it's expected to build a bottom through oscillation. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended [7]. - For PVC, the supply - demand situation is poor with strong supply and weak demand in China. Although the valuation has dropped to a low level, it still can't support the current supply - demand imbalance. A strategy of short - selling on rallies is suggested in the medium term [12]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the port inventory of styrene is decreasing significantly, and with the seasonal peak in demand, styrene prices may stop falling temporarily [18]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The cost - driven downward trend has shifted to the issue of South Korean ethylene clearance [21]. - For polypropylene, in a situation of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, there is no prominent short - term contradiction. The price may be supported when the supply - surplus situation in the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [23]. - For PX, it is expected to experience a slight inventory build - up in November. With a neutral valuation and weakening aromatics blending data, there is a risk of valuation correction [27]. - For PTA, the supply of unexpected outages is expected to decrease, and demand may remain high in the short term. However, PTA processing fees have limited upside, and there is a risk of PXN valuation correction [29]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand outlook is weak. Although the inventory build - up may slow down, a strategy of short - selling on rallies is recommended in the medium term [32]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 7.60 yuan/barrel, a 1.67% decline, at 447.40 yuan/barrel. Singapore's ESG oil product weekly data showed gasoline and diesel inventories increasing, fuel oil inventory decreasing, and total refined oil inventory increasing [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, and wait and see for now [2]. 3.2 Methanol - **Market Information**: Taicang's price remained stable, Lunan's price decreased by 5, Inner Mongolia's price increased by 5, the 01 contract of the futures market decreased by 12 yuan to 2004 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 4. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 3 to - 134 [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The futures market is in a weak downward trend. High port inventories suppress prices, and there is a risk of further price decline [4]. 3.3 Urea - **Market Information**: Shandong's spot price increased by 10, Henan's increased by 20, Hubei's increased by 10. The 01 contract of the futures market decreased by 11 yuan to 1654 yuan, and the basis was - 24. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 4 to - 74 [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Prices are oscillating at the bottom and showing relative resilience. With improved demand and cost support, the downside is limited. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended [7]. 3.4 PVC - **Market Information**: The 01 contract remained unchanged at 4456 yuan. Changzhou's SG - 5 spot price was 4420 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 36. The 1 - 5 spread was - 300. The cost side remained stable, and the overall开工 rate was 78.8%, with an increase of 0.3%. The demand - side downstream开工 rate was 49.2%, with a decrease of 0.3% [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand situation is poor with strong supply and weak demand in China. A strategy of short - selling on rallies is suggested in the medium term [12]. 3.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure benzene's spot and futures prices remained unchanged, and the basis widened. Styrene's spot and futures prices increased, and the basis strengthened. The upstream开工 rate decreased by 0.30%, and the port inventory decreased by 2.65 million tons. The demand - side three - S weighted开工率 increased by 0.21% [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With the significant decrease in styrene's port inventory and the seasonal peak in demand, styrene prices may stop falling temporarily [18]. 3.6 Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price was 6781 yuan/ton, a decrease of 54 yuan/ton. The spot price remained unchanged at 6855 yuan/ton, and the basis strengthened by 54 yuan to 74. The upstream开工 rate increased by 0.89%. The production enterprise's inventory decreased by 2.59 million tons, and the trader's inventory increased by 0.05 million tons. The downstream average开工率 decreased by 0.29% [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The cost - driven downward trend has shifted to the issue of South Korean ethylene clearance [21]. 3.7 Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price was 6400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan/ton. The spot price decreased by 15 yuan to 6505 yuan/ton, and the basis strengthened by 19 yuan to 105. The upstream开工率 decreased by 0.68%. The production enterprise's, trader's, and port inventories all decreased. The downstream average开工率 increased by 0.14% [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In a situation of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, there is no prominent short - term contradiction. The price may be supported when the supply - surplus situation in the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [23]. 3.8 PX - **Market Information**: The 01 contract decreased by 80 yuan to 6750 yuan, and PX CFR decreased by 9 dollars to 824 dollars. The basis was - 19 yuan, and the 1 - 3 spread was - 14 yuan. China's PX负荷 was 89.5%, an increase of 2.7%, and Asia's was 79.7%, an increase of 1.2%. PTA's负荷 was 71%, a decrease of 4.7%. The inventory at the end of September was 402.6 million tons, an increase of 10.8 million tons compared to the previous month [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to experience a slight inventory build - up in November. With a neutral valuation and weakening aromatics blending data, there is a risk of valuation correction [27]. 3.9 PTA - **Market Information**: The 01 contract decreased by 30 yuan to 4666 yuan, and the East China spot price decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 4615 yuan. The basis was - 63 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 44 yuan. PTA's负荷 was 71%, a decrease of 4.7%. The downstream负荷 was 91.3%, an increase of 0.8%. The social inventory on November 7 was 222.7 million tons, an increase of 2 million tons compared to the previous period. The spot processing fee increased by 35 yuan to 199 yuan, and the futures processing fee increased by 22 yuan to 238 yuan [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of unexpected outages is expected to decrease, and demand may remain high in the short term. However, PTA processing fees have limited upside, and there is a risk of PXN valuation correction [29]. 3.10 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract decreased by 14 yuan to 3808 yuan, and the East China spot price decreased by 33 yuan to 3852 yuan. The basis was 32 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 93 yuan. The supply - side负荷 was 70.8%, a decrease of 0.7%. The downstream负荷 was 91.3%, an increase of 0.8%. The port inventory increased by 7.1 million tons to 73.2 million tons [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand outlook is weak. Although the inventory build - up may slow down, a strategy of short - selling on rallies is recommended in the medium term [32].