Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Five Minerals Futures Morning Report | Non-ferrous Metals [1][31][78] - Date: November 26, 2025 Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 3: Core Views - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate and strengthen due to dovish Fed statements, reduced geopolitical risks, tight raw material supply, and strong downstream demand [5] - Aluminum prices are likely to strengthen after adjustment as global visible inventory is low and supply disruptions are expected, despite the approaching off - season [8] - Lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term due to increased supply, stable domestic demand, and rising inventory [10] - Zinc prices are predicted to be weak in the short term as the zinc industry is in an over - supply cycle, and recent financial assets are performing weakly [12] - Tin prices are expected to be in a tight - balance state in the short term and may fluctuate, with support from emerging demand and potential supply increases [14] - Nickel prices are likely to be under pressure in the short term due to supply increases and weak demand [18] - Lithium carbonate prices have significant market differences, and it is recommended to wait and see, focusing on first - quarter cell production and equity market sentiment [21] - Alumina prices are suggested to be observed in the short term as the industry has over - capacity and potential supply - side changes [24] - Stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate as the market has a mixed situation of price increases and weak demand [27] - Cast aluminum alloy prices are likely to be volatile in the short term with strong cost support and average demand [30] Group 4: Summary by Metal Copper - **行情资讯**: Offshore RMB strengthened, oil prices were pressured, and copper prices rose and then fell. LME copper inventory increased, and domestic warehouse receipts decreased. Spot premiums declined, and import losses widened [4] - **策略观点**: With a high probability of Fed rate cut in December and eased geopolitical risks, copper prices are expected to fluctuate and strengthen. The reference range for SHFE copper is 85,800 - 87,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 10,700 - 10,900 dollars/ton [5] Aluminum - **行情资讯**: Aluminum prices fluctuated and declined. LME aluminum inventory decreased, and domestic futures positions and warehouse receipts decreased. Spot premiums declined, and market activity decreased [7] - **策略观点**: Global visible inventory is low, and supply disruptions are expected. Aluminum prices may strengthen after adjustment. The reference range for SHFE aluminum is 21,300 - 21,600 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2,780 - 2,830 dollars/ton [8] Lead - **行情资讯**: Lead prices declined. Domestic and overseas inventories changed, and the basis and spreads showed certain trends [9] - **策略观点**: Supply is increasing, domestic demand is stable, and inventory is rising. Lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term [10] Zinc - **行情资讯**: Zinc prices declined slightly. Zinc ore supply is tight due to winter stockpiling, and zinc ingot inventory decreased slightly [11] - **策略观点**: The zinc industry is in an over - supply cycle. Zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short term [12] Tin - **行情资讯**: Tin prices rose. Supply is affected by raw material shortages, and demand from emerging fields provides support. Inventory increased slightly, and there are geopolitical risks in Congo (Kinshasa) [13] - **策略观点**: Tin supply and demand are in a tight - balance state. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate. The reference range for domestic SHFE tin is 280,000 - 300,000 yuan/ton, and for LME tin is 36,000 - 38,000 dollars/ton [14] Nickel - **行情资讯**: Nickel prices rebounded slightly. Spot premiums were stable, nickel ore prices were stable, and nickel iron prices declined [16] - **策略观点**: Nickel supply is increasing, demand is weak, and prices are expected to be under pressure in the short term. The reference range for SHFE nickel is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 13,500 - 15,500 dollars/ton [18] Lithium Carbonate - **行情资讯**: Lithium carbonate prices rose. The spot index and futures prices increased [20] - **策略观点**: There are differences in the market regarding short - term demand and future supply - demand improvement. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's LC2605 contract is 92,200 - 100,600 yuan/ton [21] Alumina - **行情资讯**: Alumina prices declined slightly. The basis, overseas prices, and inventory showed certain trends [23] - **策略观点**: Overseas ore supply is expected to increase, and the industry has over - capacity. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference range for the domestic AO2601 contract is 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton [24] Stainless Steel - **行情资讯**: Stainless steel prices rose slightly. Spot prices increased, and inventory decreased slightly [26] - **策略观点**: Spot prices increased, but demand is weak due to the real - estate market. Stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate [27] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **行情资讯**: Cast aluminum alloy prices rebounded slightly. The contract price, inventory, and basis changed [29] - **策略观点**: Cost support is strong, and supply is affected by policies. Prices are expected to be volatile in the short term [30]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Indexes are expected to stabilize in the short - term after recent declines. In the long - term, the policy supports the capital market, and technology growth remains the market's main line, suggesting a long - term strategy of buying on dips [4]. - The bond market in the fourth quarter may see an improved supply - demand pattern, but it will generally remain volatile, with attention paid to the linkage between stocks and bonds and liquidity [6]. - The expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has significantly increased, and the overseas interest - rate cut cycle will continue. It is recommended to buy precious metals on dips [9]. - Most metals and non - metals in the non - ferrous sector are expected to show different trends of shock, strength, or weakness. For example, copper and aluminum prices may strengthen, while zinc and lead prices may be weak in the short - term [12][14][16][17]. - Steel demand has entered the off - season, and prices are likely to continue weak and volatile in the short - term, but may improve with policy implementation [32]. - Glass and soda ash prices are expected to remain volatile at the bottom and in a weak state respectively [36][37]. - For energy and chemical products, different strategies are recommended according to different product fundamentals, such as short - term waiting and long - short strategies [55][56][58]. - In the agricultural product sector, different strategies are proposed for different products, such as short - selling hogs and eggs at high prices and waiting for opportunities to close positions [77][79]. Summaries by Categories Macro - financial Index Futures - **Market Information**: The call between Chinese and US leaders was positive. The RMB appreciated. Alibaba's Q2 FY2026 revenue increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and its cloud business grew by 34%. A Fed official called for significant rate cuts [2]. - **Strategy**: After recent declines, the index may stabilize in the short - term. The long - term strategy is to buy on dips as policy supports the capital market and technology growth is the main line [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: Bond futures had different changes on Tuesday. An official press conference on consumption policies will be held. The central bank conducted 3021 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1054 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The economic data in October was weak, and the year - end social financing growth may remain weak. The central bank maintains an attitude of protecting funds. The bond market is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the linkage between stocks and bonds and liquidity [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices rose. The Fed's dovish stance and potential changes in leadership supported precious metals. The inventory of silver on the SHFE increased slightly, but the supply of silver was still tight [7][8]. - **Strategy**: The expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has increased, and the overseas interest - rate cut cycle will continue. It is recommended to buy on dips [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Copper prices rose and then fell. LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic spot premium declined. The import loss of domestic copper increased [11]. - **Strategy**: The probability of a Fed rate cut in December is over 80%. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the downstream start - up rate is strong. Copper prices are expected to be volatile and strong [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices oscillated and declined. The global visible inventory of aluminum ingots is low, and the domestic inventory decreased [13]. - **Strategy**: The global visible inventory of aluminum ingots is low, and there are expectations of supply disruptions. Aluminum prices are expected to strengthen after adjustment [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices declined slightly. The import of zinc ore decreased significantly in October, and the social inventory of zinc ingots decreased slightly [15][16]. - **Strategy**: The supply of zinc ore is tight due to winter stockpiling, but it is expected to loosen after stockpiling. The zinc industry is in an over - supply cycle, and zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short - term [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices declined. The supply of lead ingots increased, and the export of lead - acid batteries continued to decline. The domestic and overseas inventories increased [17]. - **Strategy**: The supply of lead ingots is relatively loose, and lead prices are expected to be weak in the short - term [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded slightly. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron continued to decline [18]. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals of nickel are under pressure, and prices are expected to be under pressure in the short - term. It is not recommended to chase short or bottom - fish [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose. The production of tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi was stable at a high level, and the demand in emerging fields provided support. The social inventory increased [20]. - **Strategy**: The supply and demand of tin are in a tight balance in the short - term. Tin prices are expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot price of carbonate lithium increased, and the futures price of LC2605 rose [22]. - **Strategy**: The upstream expects the supply - demand situation to improve in 2026, and the mid - stream has large long - term contracts. There are differences in the market. It is recommended to wait and see [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina decreased. The overseas ore price is expected to decline, and the domestic production capacity is over - supplied [24][26]. - **Strategy**: The overseas ore price is expected to decline, and the over - supply pattern of alumina is difficult to change in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices rose slightly. The spot price increased, and the social inventory decreased slightly [27]. - **Strategy**: The spot market price increased slightly, but the demand in related fields is weak. Stainless steel prices are expected to be volatile [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rebounded slightly. The inventory decreased slightly [28]. - **Strategy**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy provides strong support, and the supply is affected by policies. Prices are expected to be volatile in the short - term [29]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils increased slightly. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils was high [31]. - **Strategy**: The demand for steel has entered the off - season, and the inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils remains. Steel prices are expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term, but may improve with policy implementation [32]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices rose slightly. The overseas shipment decreased, and the port inventory decreased slightly [33]. - **Strategy**: The supply of iron ore is strong, and the demand is stable. Iron ore prices are expected to be volatile within a range [34]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices were stable, and the inventory increased slightly. Soda ash prices decreased, and the inventory decreased [35][37]. - **Strategy**: The cold - repair expectation of glass production lines in December is strong, and glass prices are expected to be volatile at the bottom. Soda ash is in an over - supply situation and is expected to be weak [36][37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon prices rose slightly, and ferrosilicon prices decreased slightly. The market risk preference weakened, and the price of coking coal decreased [38][39]. - **Strategy**: The market risk preference has weakened, but there are expectations of a Fed rate cut. It is recommended to pay attention to the turning point of market sentiment. Manganese silicon may follow the black - sector market, and the operability of ferrosilicon is low [40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices rose slightly, and polysilicon prices rose significantly. The production of industrial silicon decreased, and the production of polysilicon decreased [42][45]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to short - term fluctuations. Polysilicon prices are expected to be volatile within a wide range, and attention should be paid to the progress of platform companies and price feedback [43][46]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices unexpectedly declined. The export of natural rubber from Thailand increased in October. The tyre - factory start - up rate was weak [48][50]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to have a long - biased short - term trading strategy with a stop - loss and partially build a hedging position [53]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil prices rose, and the prices of refined oil products decreased. The inventory of crude oil increased, and the inventory of refined oil products decreased [54]. - **Strategy**: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export price - support intention [55]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices decreased slightly. The supply was at a relatively high level, and the demand changed little. The port inventory decreased [56]. - **Strategy**: The positive factors on the supply side are being realized, and the market is expected to bottom out. It is recommended to wait and see [56]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices increased slightly. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand improved. The enterprise inventory decreased [57][58]. - **Strategy**: Urea prices are expected to oscillate and bottom out. It is recommended to buy on dips at low prices [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The price of pure benzene was stable, and the price of styrene decreased. The supply of styrene was under pressure, and the demand improved [59]. - **Strategy**: The price of styrene may stop falling in the short - term due to the reduction of port inventory [60]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices decreased slightly. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The enterprise inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased [61]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply of PVC is strong, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [62]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices decreased slightly. The supply decreased, and the demand increased. The port inventory was stable [63]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol is expected to be weak in the medium - term. It is recommended to short on rallies [64]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices decreased slightly. The supply decreased, and the demand was stable. The processing fee increased [65]. - **Strategy**: The supply of PTA is expected to increase, and the demand may be stable. The processing fee has limited upward space, and PXN has a risk of valuation correction [66]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: PX prices decreased slightly. The load of PX was high, and the load of PTA was low. The inventory increased [68]. - **Strategy**: PX is in a state of slight over - supply, and there is a risk of valuation correction [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices decreased slightly. The supply was stable, and the demand improved. The inventory decreased [70]. - **Strategy**: PE prices are expected to be low and volatile. The high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the price [71]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices decreased slightly. The supply was high, and the demand improved. The inventory decreased [72]. - **Strategy**: PP prices are in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the inventory pressure is high. The price may be supported in the first quarter of next year [73][74]. Agricultural Products Hogs - **Market Information**: Hog prices continued to decline. The supply exceeded the demand, and the market demand increased slightly [76]. - **Strategy**: The supply of hogs is under pressure, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short near - month contracts or conduct reverse spreads [77]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable with a slight increase. The supply was stable, and the demand was in a stalemate [78]. - **Strategy**: The egg market is expected to be volatile in the short - term. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [79]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: CBOT soybean prices were oscillating, and domestic soybean meal prices were stable. The global soybean supply - demand pattern has changed [80][81]. - **Strategy**: The import cost of soybeans has a bottom support, and soybean meal prices are expected to be oscillating [82]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The prices of domestic oils and fats decreased significantly. The export of Malaysian palm oil was weak, and the production increased [83]. - **Strategy**: The supply of palm oil is large, but the inventory may reverse. It is recommended to view it oscillatingly and turn to a long - biased strategy if production decreases [84]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices rebounded. The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and the domestic import profit window is open [85][86]. - **Strategy**: The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and it is recommended to short on rallies and close positions when the price falls [87]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices continued to rise. The downstream start - up rate was medium - weak, and the global cotton production increased [88]. - **Strategy**: The cotton market has no strong driving force in the short - term, and cotton prices are expected to be oscillating [89].

昨夜美联储货币政策的表态延续鸽派，同时特朗普政府派系成员暗示后续将会削减美联储的影 响力，金银价格短期得到支撑。 美联储理事米兰鸽派表态，他认为不存在通货膨胀问题，当前经济形势需要大幅降息。市场对 于米兰的鸽派言论已不产生反应，但米兰同时表示希望放宽监管使得美联储资产负债表收缩， 且更多的转向美国国债，他同时表明"我们需要降低抵押贷款利率"。米兰讲话的内容呼应了 此前贝森特的表述，即大幅削减联储本身所具备的影响力。今晨，海外消息人士称特朗普的"亲 密盟友"哈塞特已成为美联储新任主席的最热门人选，而他后续的货币政策表态将偏向鸽派。 白银方面，上期所白银库存自 11 月 21 日后开始小幅回升，昨日库存量增加 8.27 吨至 540.57 吨，但当前沪银总体期限结构处于 back 状态（其中 AG2512 合约仍贴水 AG2601 合约），显示库 存低位的情况下白银现货依旧紧俏，而这从供需层面对于白银的基本面形成支撑。 【策略观点】 贵金属日报 2025-11-26 贵金属 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongju ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season, with high inventory pressure on hot - rolled coils. Prices are likely to continue weak and volatile in the short term, but may see a marginal inflection point with policy implementation and macro - environment improvement [2] - Iron ore has a high overall inventory but structural contradictions, with spot having some support. It is expected to operate within a volatile range [5] - Ferroalloy prices have declined significantly, but there is hope for a turnaround in market sentiment in December. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment [9] - Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to phased emotional disturbances [13][14] - Polysilicon is caught between reality and expectations, with prices expected to fluctuate widely within a range. Attention should be paid to the progress of platform companies and price feedback in the industrial chain [16] - Glass prices are expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom, with limited room for further decline [19] - Soda ash is expected to maintain a weak operation until the glass demand shows substantial improvement [21] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3106 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (0.550%) from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai increased by 10 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3309 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (0.424%), and the spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai also increased by 10 yuan/ton [1] Strategy Viewpoints - Rebar shows a situation of both supply and demand increasing, with inventory continuously decreasing, presenting a neutral overall performance. Hot - rolled coils have a continuous recovery in terminal demand, but high inventory levels [2] - South Korea's anti - dumping tax on Chinese steel products will affect steel exports to some extent [2] Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 794.00 yuan/ton, up 0.44% (+3.50). The weighted position was 92.57 million hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 794 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 49.54 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.87% [4] Strategy Viewpoints - Overseas iron ore shipments decreased in the latest period, with reductions from Australia and Brazil. The shipments of the four major mines all declined. Non - mainstream country shipments reached a high for the year, and the near - end arrivals increased [5] - The average daily hot - metal output decreased, with more blast furnace overhauls than restarts due to weak downstream demand and poor profits. The steel mill profitability rate continued to decline [5] - Port inventories decreased slightly, and steel mill inventories were consumed. There is a structural contradiction in iron ore, and the spot has some support [5] Ferroalloys (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon) Market Information - On November 25, the manganese silicon main contract (SM601) closed up 0.11% at 5636 yuan/ton. The Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price was 5650 yuan/ton, with a premium of 204 yuan/ton over the futures [7] - The ferrosilicon main contract (SF603) closed down 0.15% at 5448 yuan/ton. The Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon spot price was 5400 yuan/ton, with a discount of 48 yuan/ton to the futures [8] Strategy Viewpoints - Ferroalloy prices declined significantly due to weak market sentiment, cost - side pressure on coal, and a macro - policy window period. However, market expectations for a December interest - rate cut have risen, and the decline in coking coal prices may end [9] - It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and corresponding price inflection points, and be cautious about overseas sentiment fluctuations [9] - Manganese silicon's fundamentals are not ideal, and attention should be paid to the manganese ore situation. Ferrosilicon has no obvious supply - demand contradictions, with low operational cost - effectiveness [10] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) closed at 8960 yuan/ton, up 0.22% (+20). The weighted contract position increased by 3092 hands. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China remained unchanged [12] - The main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) closed at 54730 yuan/ton, up 2.65% (+1415). The weighted contract position increased by 3595 hands. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material remained unchanged [15] Strategy Viewpoints - Industrial silicon production decreased, and the demand from polysilicon and organic silicon showed different trends. The cost side provides support, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [13][14] - Polysilicon production is decreasing, and the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally. However, prices are under pressure in the short term and are expected to fluctuate widely within a range [16] Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The glass main contract closed at 1014 yuan/ton, up 0.10% (+1). The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 5.60 million cases (0.09%). The long and short positions of the top 20 holders decreased [18] - The soda ash main contract closed at 1173 yuan/ton, down 0.85% (-10). The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 6.29 million tons (0.09%), with decreases in both heavy and light soda ash inventories. The long positions of the top 20 holders decreased, and the short positions increased [20] Strategy Viewpoints - The expectation of cold - repair of glass production lines in December is increasing, with insufficient downstream demand and weakening price expectations. Glass prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [19] - Soda ash supply exceeds demand, with differentiated demand. High inventory and weak demand are the main negative drivers, and it is expected to maintain a weak operation [21]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see currently [3]. - For methanol, the positive impact of Iranian plant shutdowns is being realized, but the near - term high - inventory situation persists. The supply remains high while demand changes little. It's recommended to wait and see [6]. - For urea, prices are oscillating at the bottom and are relatively resilient. With support from export policies and costs, the downside is limited. It's suggested to consider buying on dips [8]. - For rubber, the current view is bullish. It's recommended to set stop - losses and conduct short - term bullish trades. Partial positions can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [16]. - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong while demand is weak. It's advisable to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [18]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the port inventory of styrene is decreasing significantly, and prices may stop falling in the short term [21]. - For polyethylene, prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [24]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. It may be supported when the supply - surplus situation at the cost end changes in the first quarter of next year [27]. - For PX, it's expected to see a slight inventory build - up in November. The valuation is at a neutral level, and there is a risk of valuation correction [30]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to stabilize, and the demand may remain high in the short term. The PXN has a risk of valuation correction [32]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand outlook is weak. It's recommended to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [35]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 3.00 yuan/barrel, or 0.67%, to 448.60 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures fell 9.00 yuan/ton, or 0.36%, to 2491.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures fell 40.00 yuan/ton, or 1.31%, to 3015.00 yuan/ton. China's weekly crude oil data showed an inventory build - up of 1.04 million barrels to 207.48 million barrels, a gasoline inventory draw of 1.52 million barrels to 85.45 million barrels, a diesel inventory draw of 4.06 million barrels to 91.54 million barrels, and a total refined oil inventory draw of 5.58 million barrels to 176.99 million barrels [2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, and wait and see currently [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang increased by 7, in Lunan by 10, and remained stable in Inner Mongolia. The 01 contract on the futures market fell 10 yuan to 2067 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 7. The 1 - 5 spread was + 0, at - 121 [5]. - **Strategy**: The positive impact of Iranian plant shutdowns is being realized, but the near - term high - inventory situation persists. It's recommended to wait and see [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong and Henan fell by 10, and remained stable in Hubei. The 01 contract on the futures market fell 8 yuan to 1630 yuan, with a basis of - 10. The 1 - 5 spread was + 2, at - 71 [8]. - **Strategy**: Prices are oscillating at the bottom and are relatively resilient. Consider buying on dips [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rebounded oscillatingly. There was heavy rainfall in the Thai production area with a high risk of floods. The November warehouse receipts of natural rubber on the Shanghai Exchange expired and were about to be delivered out of the warehouse, leading to a bullish market expectation. As of November 20, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 60.57%, down 4.13 percentage points from last week and 2.01 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 72.77%, down 1.60 percentage points from last week and 6.01 percentage points from the same period last year. The export orders of semi - steel tires slowed down. As of November 16, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.062 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,000 tons, or 0.5% [12][14][15]. - **Strategy**: The current view is bullish. Set stop - losses and conduct short - term bullish trades. Partially establish positions for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [16]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract fell 5 yuan to 4491 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4460 (+20) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 31 (+25) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 296 (-2) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 78.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3%. Factory inventory was 315,000 tons (-7,000), and social inventory was 1.033 million tons (+5,000) [16]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply is strong while demand is weak. Consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [18]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of East China pure benzene was 5320 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of styrene was 6500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 68.95%, down 0.30%. The inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 26,500 tons to 148,300 tons [20]. - **Strategy**: The port inventory of styrene is decreasing significantly, and prices may stop falling in the short term [21]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6762 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6830 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 84.63%, a month - on - month increase of 0.63%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 25,900 tons to 503,300 tons, and the trader inventory increased by 500 tons to 50,500 tons [23]. - **Strategy**: Prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [24]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6317 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6450 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 78.99%, a month - on - month increase of 0.92%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 26,200 tons to 593,800 tons, the trader inventory decreased by 3,900 tons to 213,400 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 1,100 tons to 65,800 tons [26]. - **Strategy**: Under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. It may be supported when the supply - surplus situation at the cost end changes in the first quarter of next year [27]. PX, PTA, and MEG PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract fell 54 yuan to 6718 yuan. The PX CFR remained unchanged at 826 US dollars. The load in China was 89.5%, a month - on - month increase of 2.7%. The load in Asia was 79.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.2%. In the first and middle of November, South Korea's PX exports to China were 275,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19,000 tons [29]. - **Strategy**: It's expected to see a slight inventory build - up in November. The valuation is at a neutral level, and there is a risk of valuation correction [30]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract fell 24 yuan to 4656 yuan. The PTA load was 71%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.7%. The downstream load was 91.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on November 7 was 2.227 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons [31]. - **Strategy**: The supply is expected to stabilize, and the demand may remain high in the short term. The PXN has a risk of valuation correction [32]. MEG - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract fell 11 yuan to 3873 yuan. The supply - side load was 70.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%. The downstream load was 91.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. The port inventory remained unchanged at 732,000 tons [34]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand outlook is weak. Consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The agricultural product options market shows different trends in various sectors. Oilseeds and oils are in a weak - oscillating state, while some products like apples have shown a certain upward trend. The report recommends constructing option combination strategies mainly for sellers and spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Different agricultural product options have different performance in terms of price, trading volume, and open interest. For example, the latest price of soybean No.1 (A2601) is 4,107, with a decline of 10 and a decrease rate of 0.24%, and its trading volume is 11.62 million lots with a decrease of 6.05 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR of different options vary. For instance, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 is 0.58 with a change of 0.08, and the open - interest PCR is 1.01 with a change of - 0.07 [4]. 3.3 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - Each option has its corresponding pressure and support levels. For example, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 4,200 and the support level is 4,050 [5]. 3.4 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different options also shows differences. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 11.6, and the weighted implied volatility is 12.67 with a change of - 0.64 [6]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Recommendations for Different Products 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybean No.1**: The fundamental situation is affected by factors such as China's purchase of US soybeans and the decline in Brazilian soybean import costs. The option strategy includes constructing a selling neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Soybean Meal**: The average daily trading volume and delivery volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills have increased. The option strategy includes constructing a selling bearish call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia's palm oil production and inventory situation affect the market. The option strategy includes constructing a bearish option bear spread combination strategy, a selling bearish call + put option combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Peanut**: The spot peanut price is weak, and the supply pressure is expected to gradually release. The option strategy includes a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. 3.5.2 Agricultural By - product Options - **Pig**: The supply and demand of pigs are affected by factors such as group enterprise sales and consumer demand. The option strategy includes constructing a selling bearish call + put option combination strategy and a long covered call strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Egg**: The domestic egg price has declined, and the supply is sufficient. The option strategy includes constructing a selling neutral call + put option combination strategy [11]. - **Apple**: The apple production has decreased this year. The option strategy includes constructing a selling bullish call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. - **Jujube**: The acquisition progress of jujubes in Xinjiang varies by region. The option strategy includes constructing a selling bearish wide - straddle option combination strategy and a long covered call strategy for spot hedging [12]. 3.5.3 Soft Commodity Options - **Sugar**: The spot price of sugar in Guangxi has declined, and the basis has weakened. The option strategy includes constructing a selling bearish call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [12]. - **Cotton**: The global cotton production has increased. The option strategy includes constructing a selling bearish call + put option combination strategy and a long covered call strategy for spot hedging [13]. 3.5.4 Grain Options - **Corn**: The average price of corn in China has increased. The option strategy includes constructing a selling bullish call + put option combination strategy [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For non - ferrous metals, a neutral volatility selling strategy is recommended as they tend to move upward. - For the black series, a short - volatility combination strategy is suitable due to their large - amplitude fluctuations. - For precious metals, a bull spread combination strategy is advised as they are rebounding [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various metal futures contracts, including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. For example, the latest price of copper (CU2601) is 86,350, with a decrease of 70 and a decline rate of - 0.08%. [3] 3.2. Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - It shows the volume and open - interest PCR of different metal options. For instance, the volume PCR of copper options is 0.62, with a change of - 0.19, and the open - interest PCR is 0.85, with no change [4]. 3.3. Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of each option are analyzed. For example, the pressure level of copper is 90,000, and the support level is 84,000 [5]. 3.4. Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The report provides the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and other related data of different metal options. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of copper options is 11.17%, and the weighted implied volatility is 14.76%, with a change of - 0.61% [6]. 3.5. Strategy and Recommendations for Each Metal Option - **Copper**: Based on the analysis of fundamentals, market trends, and option factors, a short - volatility selling option combination strategy is recommended, along with a spot long - hedging strategy [7]. - **Aluminum**: A bull spread combination strategy for call options and a selling option combination strategy for both call and put options are suggested, as well as a spot collar strategy [9]. - **Zinc**: A neutral selling option combination strategy for both call and put options and a spot collar strategy are recommended [9]. - **Nickel**: A short - volatility selling option combination strategy with a bearish bias and a spot covered - call strategy are proposed [10]. - **Tin**: A short - volatility strategy and a spot collar strategy are recommended [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: A bullish selling option combination strategy and a spot long - hedging strategy are advised [11]. - **Silver**: A bull spread combination strategy for call options and a bullish short - volatility option selling combination strategy are recommended, along with a spot hedging strategy [12]. - **Rebar**: A short - volatility selling option combination strategy with a bearish bias and a spot covered - call strategy are proposed [13]. - **Iron Ore**: A short - volatility selling option combination strategy with a bearish bias and a spot long - collar strategy are recommended [13]. - **Ferroalloy (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon)**: A short - volatility strategy for manganese silicon and relevant analysis and strategies for ferrosilicon are provided [14]. - **Industrial Silicon**: A short - volatility selling option combination strategy and a spot hedging strategy are recommended [14]. - **Glass**: A bear spread combination strategy, a short - volatility selling option combination strategy, and a spot long - collar strategy are proposed [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global soybean supply has decreased compared to the 24/25 season, and the bottom of import costs may have emerged, but the upward space requires a larger reduction in production. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate. [2][4] - Palm oil may reverse its current supply - excess and inventory - accumulation situation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to view it with a fluctuating perspective and turn to a bullish view if there are signs of production decline. [8] - The global sugar supply - demand relationship has shifted from shortage to surplus, and it is recommended to short at high prices and close positions when prices fall. [11] - Cotton prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term due to lack of strong driving factors. [14] - Egg prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a near - weak and far - strong contango structure. In the medium term, it is advisable to wait for a rebound and then short. [17] - Pig prices are expected to decline, and it is recommended to short near - month contracts or engage in reverse spreads. [20] Summary by Directory Soybean and Protein Meal Market Information - On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans fluctuated, Brazilian soybean premiums rose, and the cost of imported soybeans remained stable. Domestic soybean meal spot prices were stable, with an offer of 2,980 yuan/ton in East China. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume to be 2.3173 million tons, slightly lower than last week's 2.3344 million tons. Feed enterprise inventory days decreased to 7.98 days, a decrease of 0.25 days from last week. Port soybean inventories decreased last week but were still high year - on - year, and soybean meal inventories rose above 1 million tons. [2] - Brazilian soybean planting areas had slightly less rainfall in November than usual, but more rainfall is forecasted for December, and planting is expected to proceed smoothly. The November USDA report estimated that the global soybean production and consumption in the 25/26 season are almost equal, and the supply - demand pattern has changed from double - growth to supply - decrease and demand - increase. The global soybean inventory - to - sales ratio has dropped from 33% in October 2024 to 28.94%. [2] Strategy Viewpoints - The bottom of soybean import costs may have emerged, but the upward space requires a larger reduction in production. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate. [4] Fats and Oils Market Information - ITS and AMSPEC data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 25 decreased by 16.4% - 18.8% compared to the same period last month. SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production in the first 5 days of November increased by 6.8% month - on - month, decreased by 2.16% in the first 10 days, and is expected to increase by 4.09% in the first 15 days. [6] - MYSTEEL statistics showed that the total domestic oil inventory remained flat last week. Palm oil inventory was at a normal level year - on - year and continued to accumulate. The de - stocking trend of soybean oil rebounded due to increased crushing volume, and rapeseed oil continued to de - stock due to a shortage of Canadian rapeseed imports. The total oil inventory is expected to decrease in the future. [6] - On Tuesday, domestic oil prices fell sharply. The high - frequency export data of Malaysian palm oil in November was weak, and high - frequency data still showed month - on - month production increase. Domestic spot basis was stable. [6] Strategy Viewpoints - The unexpected high production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses its market performance. Palm oil may reverse its current situation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to view it with a fluctuating perspective and turn to a bullish view if there are signs of production decline. [8] Sugar Market Information - On Tuesday, Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to rebound. The closing price of the January contract was 5,387 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton or 0.32% from the previous trading day. Spot prices in various regions remained unchanged. As of November 25, 20 sugar mills in Guangxi had started production in the 2025/26 season, 26 fewer than the same period last year, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of 146,000 tons, a decrease of 264,000 tons. The ISO predicts a surplus of 1.63 million tons of sugar in the 2025/26 season. Indian sugar production has increased significantly compared to the same period last year. [10] Strategy Viewpoints - The global sugar supply - demand relationship has shifted from shortage to surplus, and it is recommended to short at high prices and close positions when prices fall. [11] Cotton Market Information - On Tuesday, Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to rise. The closing price of the January contract was 13,645 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton or 0.44% from the previous trading day. The spot price index rose, and the basis was 1,187 yuan/ton. As of November 21, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.5%, down 0.1 percentage points from last week and 2.9 percentage points from the same period last year. The national commercial cotton inventory was 3.8 million tons, an increase of 370,000 tons year - on - year. The USDA report increased the global cotton production forecast for the 2025/26 season by 520,000 tons to 26.14 million tons. [13] Strategy Viewpoints - Cotton prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term due to lack of strong driving factors. [14] Eggs Market Information - Yesterday, national egg prices were stable with some increases. The average price in the main production areas rose 0.05 yuan to 2.93 yuan/jin. Supply was stable, downstream digestion was average, and the market was in a stalemate. Today's egg prices are expected to be mostly stable with minor fluctuations. [16] Strategy Viewpoints - Egg prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a near - weak and far - strong contango structure. In the medium term, it is advisable to wait for a rebound and then short. [17] Pigs Market Information - Yesterday, domestic pig prices continued to decline. The average price in Henan fell 0.15 yuan to 11.34 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan remained unchanged at 11.56 yuan/kg. Market demand increased slightly, while pig slaughter volume continued to increase, resulting in oversupply. Pig prices may continue to decline today. [19] Strategy Viewpoints - Pig prices are expected to decline, and it is recommended to short near - month contracts or engage in reverse spreads. [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector is divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. For each sector, options strategies and suggestions are provided for selected varieties. Each option variety's strategy report includes analysis of the underlying asset's market, research on option factors, and option strategy suggestions [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The table shows the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various energy - chemical futures contracts such as crude oil, LPG, methanol, etc. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2601) is 443, down 4 with a decline of 0.98%, trading volume of 8.62 million lots (down 2.19 million lots), and open interest of 4.06 million lots (down 0.10 million lots) [4] 3.2 Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The table presents the volume and open interest PCR of different energy - chemical options. For instance, the volume PCR of crude oil options is 0.93 (down 0.14), and the open interest PCR is 0.77 (up 0.02) [5] 3.3 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - It shows the pressure and support levels of option underlying assets. For example, the pressure level of crude oil is 540 and the support level is 430 [6] 3.4 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The table provides information on the implied volatility of various energy - chemical options, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its changes. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil options is 26.13%, and the weighted implied volatility is 27.78% (down 0.93) [7] 3.5 Option Strategies and Suggestions 3.5.1 Energy - Class Options: Crude Oil - Fundamental analysis: US refinery demand is stabilizing and rising. Shale oil production is stable during the oil price decline, and refineries are increasing diesel output. OPEC's short - term supply is flat. Libya's short - term exports may recover in two weeks, and Kuwait's refinery restart will weaken the support for low - sulfur fuel oil. - Market analysis: The crude oil price showed a complex trend from August to November, with short - term weakness and then rebounds. - Option factor research: The implied volatility of crude oil options fluctuates above the average. The open interest PCR is below 0.80, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 540 and the support level is 430. - Strategy suggestions: Construct a bearish spread strategy for put options, a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8] 3.5.2 Energy - Class Options: LPG - Fundamental analysis: US propane is in the process of destocking, but inventory is still at a historical high. Crude oil prices are affected by supply - demand and geopolitical factors. - Market analysis: LPG prices have shown a pattern of decline, rebound, and then consolidation since August. - Option factor research: The implied volatility of LPG options has dropped to below the average. The open interest PCR is around 0.80, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 4500 and the support level is 4250. - Strategy suggestions: Construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy for volatility and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] 3.5.3 Alcohol - Class Options: Methanol - Fundamental analysis: Port and enterprise inventories of methanol are decreasing. - Market analysis: Methanol prices have been weak since August. - Option factor research: The implied volatility of methanol options fluctuates around the historical average. The open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating a weak and volatile market. The pressure level is 2300 and the support level is 2000. - Strategy suggestions: Construct a bearish spread strategy for put options, a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] 3.5.4 Alcohol - Class Options: Ethylene Glycol - Fundamental analysis: Port inventory of ethylene glycol is expected to increase at a slower pace, and the balance sheet is expected to improve. - Market analysis: Ethylene glycol prices have been weak since August. - Option factor research: The implied volatility of ethylene glycol options fluctuates below the average. The open interest PCR is below 0.70, indicating strong bearish power. The pressure level is 4500 and the support level is 3800. - Strategy suggestions: Construct a bearish spread strategy for put options, a short - volatility strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] 3.5.5 Polyolefin - Class Options: Polypropylene - Fundamental analysis: Polyolefin inventories are under pressure. - Market analysis: Polypropylene prices have been weak since August. - Option factor research: The implied volatility of polypropylene options has dropped to around the average. The open interest PCR is around 0.70, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 7000 and the support level is 6300. - Strategy suggestions: Construct a bearish spread strategy for put options and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] 3.5.6 Rubber Options - Fundamental analysis: Tire factory operating rates are decreasing, and rubber inventories are changing from explicit to implicit. - Market analysis: Rubber prices have been weak since September. - Option factor research: The implied volatility of rubber options has dropped to below the average. The open interest PCR is below 0.60. The pressure level has dropped to 16000 and the support level is 15000. - Strategy suggestions: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility [12] 3.5.7 Polyester - Class Options: PTA - Fundamental analysis: PTA inventory is slightly increasing, but it is expected to enter a destocking phase. - Market analysis: PTA prices have shown a pattern of decline, rebound, and then consolidation. - Option factor research: The implied volatility of PTA options fluctuates above the average. The open interest PCR is around 0.70, indicating a volatile market. The pressure level is 4700 and the support level is 4300. - Strategy suggestions: Construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy for volatility [12] 3.5.8 Alkali - Class Options: Caustic Soda - Fundamental analysis: The average utilization rate of caustic soda production capacity is increasing, with regional differences. - Market analysis: Caustic soda prices have been weak since September. - Option factor research: The implied volatility of caustic soda options is at a relatively high level. The open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 3000 and the support level is 2200. - Strategy suggestions: Construct a bearish spread strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13] 3.5.9 Alkali - Class Options: Soda Ash - Fundamental analysis: Soda ash inventories are decreasing. - Market analysis: Soda ash prices have been in a low - level consolidation since August. - Option factor research: The implied volatility of soda ash options is at a relatively high level. The open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating strong bearish pressure. The pressure level is 1860 and the support level is 1100. - Strategy suggestions: Construct a bearish spread strategy, a short - volatility strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13] 3.5.10 Other Options: Urea - Fundamental analysis: Urea enterprise inventories are decreasing, and port inventories are increasing. - Market analysis: Urea prices have shown a pattern of low - level consolidation and then rebound. - Option factor research: The implied volatility of urea options fluctuates around the historical average. The open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating strong bearish pressure. The pressure level is 1800 and the support level is 1600. - Strategy suggestions: Construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy for volatility and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a non - industry - rated daily report on non - ferrous metals dated November 25, 2025 [1] Group 2: Core Views - For copper, with Fed officials turning dovish, reduced geopolitical risks, tight raw material supply, and strong downstream demand, copper prices are well - supported [3][4] - For aluminum, low global visible inventory and supply disruption expectations support aluminum prices, and it may strengthen after adjustment [6][7] - For lead, due to increased supply, stable domestic demand, and weak overseas market, lead prices are expected to be weak in the short - term [8][9] - For zinc, although zinc ore is currently tight, it will loosen in the long - run. With weak financial assets globally, zinc prices may be weak in the short - term [10][11] - For tin, short - term supply and demand are in a tight balance. Considering price suppression on consumption and eased ore shortage, tin prices are expected to fluctuate [12][13] - For nickel, with increasing supply, weak demand, and possible cost - price negative feedback, nickel prices are under pressure [15][16] - For lithium carbonate, with easing position contradictions, weakening downstream demand, and potential supply and valuation factors, lithium prices may be weak but with an expected higher bottom [19][20] - For alumina, with recovering overseas ore supply, over - capacity in smelting, and prices near the cost line, it's recommended to wait and see [22][23] - For stainless steel, due to over - supply, weak demand, and falling costs, prices are expected to decline [25][26] - For cast aluminum alloy, with strong cost support and policy - induced supply disruptions, prices are expected to fluctuate [28][29] Group 3: Copper Market Information - LME copper 3M contract rose 0.03% to $10,781/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 86,040 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 725 tons to 155,750 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio declined. Domestic electrolytic copper social inventory decreased by about 14,000 tons, bonded area inventory increased slightly, and SHFE daily warrants decreased by 6,000 tons to 44,000 tons. Shanghai spot premium over futures dropped to 85 yuan/ton, while in Guangdong, it rose to 125 yuan/ton. The domestic copper spot import loss widened to about 800 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread widened to 2,820 yuan/ton [3] Strategy - The expected operating range for SHFE copper main contract is 85,600 - 87,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $10,680 - 10,900/ton [4] Group 4: Aluminum Market Information - LME aluminum rose 0.18% to $2,813/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 21,405 yuan/ton. SHFE weighted contract positions decreased by 8,000 to 605,000 lots, and futures warrants decreased by 1,000 tons to 68,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum bar social inventories decreased by 8,000 tons each. LME aluminum inventory increased by 2,000 tons to 546,000 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio rebounded. Cash/3M remained at a discount [6] Strategy - The expected operating range for SHFE aluminum main contract is 21,300 - 21,600 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2,780 - 2,830/ton [7] Group 5: Lead Market Information - SHFE lead index fell 0.19% to 17,132 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell $5.5 to $1,992/ton. SMM1 lead ingot average price was 17,075 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread was 25 yuan/ton. SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 29,600 tons, and LME lead ingot inventory was 262,900 tons [8] Strategy - Due to increased supply and weak demand, lead prices are expected to be weak in the short - term [9] Group 6: Zinc Market Information - SHFE zinc index rose 0.01% to 22,398 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose $17 to $3,006.5/ton. SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 22,380 yuan/ton. SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 74,600 tons, and LME zinc ingot inventory was 47,300 tons [10] Strategy - Although zinc ore is currently tight, it will loosen in the long - run. With weak financial assets globally, zinc prices may be weak in the short - term [11] Group 7: Tin Market Information - On November 24, 2025, SHFE tin main contract closed at 293,510 yuan/ton, up 0.73%. Tin smelting in Yunnan and Jiangxi remained stable at a high level, but raw material supply was tight. In October 2025, China imported 11,632 tons of tin concentrate, and imports from Congo (Kinshasa) recovered. Tin imports from Myanmar may increase by over 2,000 tons in November. Traditional demand is weak, but emerging sectors support tin prices. National tin ingot social inventory increased by 311 tons to 8,245 tons [12] Strategy - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate. The recommended operating range for domestic main contract is 280,000 - 300,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is $36,000 - 38,000/ton [13] Group 8: Nickel Market Information - SHFE nickel main contract rebounded 1.30% to 115,530 yuan/ton. Spot premiums were stable. Nickel ore prices were stable, while nickel iron prices continued to fall [15] Strategy - Nickel prices are under pressure. It's not recommended to short or bottom - fish. Wait for nickel iron prices to stabilize. The expected operating range for SHFE nickel is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $13,500 - 15,500/ton [16][17] Group 9: Lithium Carbonate Market Information - The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate fell 2.06% to 90,311 yuan. LC2601 contract closed at 90,480 yuan, down 0.59% [19] Strategy - With easing position contradictions and weakening downstream demand, lithium prices may be weak. The expected operating range for the GZCE lithium carbonate 2601 contract is 86,600 - 94,600 yuan/ton [20] Group 10: Alumina Market Information - On November 24, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.84% to 2,760 yuan/ton. Shandong spot price fell 5 yuan/ton to 2,770 yuan/ton, with a premium of 68 yuan/ton over the 12 - contract. Overseas, MYSTEEL Australia FOB remained at $319/ton, with an import loss of 43 yuan/ton. Futures warrants increased by 3,600 tons to 254,500 tons [22] Strategy - With recovering overseas ore supply and over - capacity in smelting, it's recommended to wait and see. The expected operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton [23] Group 11: Stainless Steel Market Information - SHFE stainless steel main contract closed at 12,335 yuan/ton, up 0.37%. Spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi showed different trends. Raw material prices were stable. Futures inventory decreased by 5,441 tons to 64,924 tons, and social inventory decreased to 1,071,700 tons [25] Strategy - Due to over - supply, weak demand, and falling costs, stainless steel prices are expected to decline [26] Group 12: Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Information - The main AD2601 contract of cast aluminum alloy rose 0.19% to 20,635 yuan/ton. Weighted contract positions decreased to 23,500 lots, and trading volume was 7,300 lots. Domestic three - region aluminum alloy ingot inventory decreased by 300 tons to 50,200 tons [28] Strategy - With strong cost support and policy - induced supply disruptions, prices are expected to fluctuate [29]