1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Downward - driven commodities**: Coking coal, glass, methanol [1] - **Equity index**: Sideways [2] - **Treasury bonds**: Range - bound [2] - **Gold and silver**: Sideways to weak [2][4] - **Non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, nickel)**: Range - bound [4] - **Lithium carbonate**: Sideways to weak [4][6] - **Silicon energy**: Downward [6] - **Steel and ore (rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore)**: Sideways to weak [6] - **Coking coal and coke**: Bearish [8] - **Soda ash and glass**: Bearish [8] - **Crude oil**: Sideways to weak [8] - **Methanol**: Downward [8][10] - **Polyolefins**: Downward [10] - **Cotton**: Sideways [10] - **Rubber**: Sideways to weak [10] 2. Core Views - **Commodity futures**: Coking coal, glass, and methanol have clear downward drivers. Hold previous short positions in JM2509 for coking coal, FG509 for glass, and MA509 for methanol due to supply - demand imbalances [1] - **Equity index**: The A - share market continues to trade in a narrow range with low volume. While the downside risk is controllable due to policy support, the short - term upward momentum is insufficient [2] - **Treasury bonds**: The bond market is under pressure. Although the long - term yield trend is downward, the current directional drivers are limited, and the odds are not favorable [2] - **Precious metals**: Gold prices are affected by short - term factors and lack upward momentum. It is recommended to buy on dips or sell out - of - the - money put options. Silver follows gold, and selling out - of - the money put options is also advisable [4] - **Non - ferrous metals**: Uncertainties in the macro environment and demand expectations affect prices. Copper, aluminum, and nickel are expected to trade in ranges, with supply - demand dynamics and policy factors influencing their trends [4] - **Lithium carbonate**: Supply reduction is limited, and demand is weak, leading to inventory accumulation and downward pressure on prices [4][6] - **Silicon energy**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak, putting pressure on silicon prices [6] - **Steel and ore**: Traditional demand seasons are ending, and supply pressure may increase. Cost reduction risks also exist, leading to a bearish outlook for steel and ore prices [6] - **Coking coal and coke**: Supply is abundant, and demand is weak, resulting in downward price trends [8] - **Soda ash and glass**: Soda ash production is likely to increase, and demand is lackluster. Glass demand is weak, and prices are expected to decline [8] - **Crude oil**: With the possibility of production increases, the medium - to - long - term oil price center is expected to shift downward [8] - **Methanol**: Supply is growing, and demand is weakening, leading to inventory accumulation and downward price pressure [8][10] - **Polyolefins**: Futures prices have reached new lows, and with lower costs and weaker demand, short positions should be held [10] - **Cotton**: Weather and demand factors need to be monitored. The market is expected to trade in a range [10] - **Rubber**: Cost support is weakening, and supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, leading to a downward price trend [10] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Futures - **Coking coal**: Supply is in continuous surplus, and previous short positions in JM2509 should be held [1] - **Glass**: Pessimistic demand expectations, and previous short positions in FG509 should be held [1] - **Methanol**: Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and previous short positions in MA509 should be held [1] 3.2 Equity Index - The A - share market is in a narrow - range, low - volume sideways trend. The red - chip defensive and technology - growth styles rotate rapidly, and funds are cautious. The downside risk is controllable, but the short - term upward momentum is insufficient [2] 3.3 Treasury Bonds - The bond market is in a weak sideways pattern. Although the central bank maintains loose liquidity, market concerns about redemptions are rising, and the bond market is under pressure [2] 3.4 Precious Metals - Gold prices are affected by short - term factors such as tariffs and geopolitics. It is recommended to buy on dips or sell out - of - the money put options. Silver follows gold, and selling out - of - the money put options is also advisable [2][4] 3.5 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Uncertainties in the macro environment and demand expectations affect prices. The supply of ore is tight, but the demand is cautious, and the market is expected to trade in a range [4] - **Aluminum and alumina**: The macro environment is uncertain. Alumina supply has short - and long - term differences, and prices may fluctuate. Aluminum is expected to trade sideways [4] - **Nickel**: The market is in an oversupply situation. Although the previous short - call option strategy can be continued, new short positions should be avoided due to policy uncertainties [4] 3.6 Lithium Carbonate - Supply reduction is limited, and demand is weak, leading to inventory accumulation and downward pressure on prices [4][6] 3.7 Silicon Energy - Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak, putting pressure on silicon prices. Attention should be paid to the furnace - starting situation in the southwest during the wet season [6] 3.8 Steel and Ore - **Rebar**: The traditional demand season is ending, and supply pressure may increase. Cost reduction risks also exist. It is recommended to hold short - call options or short the 10 - contract on rebounds [6] - **Hot - rolled coil**: External and internal demand is weak, and cost reduction risks exist. Short positions in the 10 - contract should be held [6] - **Iron ore**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. It is recommended to hold the 9 - 1 positive spread combination and short the 01 - contract [6] 3.9 Coking Coal and Coke - **Coking coal**: Supply is abundant, and demand is weak, resulting in inventory accumulation and downward price trends [8] - **Coke**: Terminal demand is in the off - season, and steel prices are falling, leading to a decline in production willingness and downward price trends [8] 3.10 Soda Ash and Glass - **Soda ash**: Production is likely to increase, and demand is lackluster. Short positions in the 09 - contract should be held, and new short positions can be taken on rebounds [8] - **Glass**: Demand is weak, and prices are expected to decline. Short positions in the FG509 contract should be held, and the buy - glass 01 - sell - soda ash 01 arbitrage can be continued [8] 3.11 Crude Oil - With the possibility of production increases, the medium - to - long - term oil price center is expected to shift downward [8] 3.12 Methanol - Supply is growing, and demand is weakening, leading to inventory accumulation and downward price pressure [8][10] 3.13 Polyolefins - Futures prices have reached new lows, and with lower costs and weaker demand, short positions should be held [10] 3.14 Cotton - Weather and demand factors need to be monitored. The market is expected to trade in a range [10] 3.15 Rubber - Cost support is weakening, and supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, leading to a downward price trend. The short - call option strategy can be adjusted and continued [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Alumina, Cotton [1][2][10] - Bearish: Industrial Silicon, Carbonate Lithium, Methanol, Polyolefin, Rubber [1][4][10] - Sideways: Stock Index, Treasury Bond, Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Iron Ore, Crude Oil, PTA, Ethylene Glycol [2][4][6][8] - Sideways with a Downward Bias: Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Coking Coal, Coke, Soda Ash, Float Glass [5][6][8] Core Viewpoints - The report provides a daily strategy for various futures products, analyzing their fundamentals and market conditions, and giving corresponding investment suggestions [1][2]. - Due to factors such as policy uncertainty, supply - demand imbalances, and seasonal effects, different futures products show different trends [2][4][6]. Summary by Product Category Equity Index Futures - The downward risk of the stock index continues to weaken, but the upward movement awaits the accumulation of trading volume. In the current shock - building phase, focus on the long - position opportunities of IF and IM corresponding to domestic demand consumption and the technology main line [2]. Treasury Bond Futures - The sentiment in the bond market remains cautious, and the long - term downward trend of yields is clear, but the short - term new driving forces are limited, and the range - bound pattern is expected to continue [2]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are running strongly due to the weakening of the US dollar and geopolitical disturbances. It is recommended to hold existing long positions in AU2508, and new orders can consider selling out - of - the - money put options on gold/silver or buying on pullbacks. Silver follows the trend of gold [2][4]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper prices are expected to move within a range due to macro uncertainties and cautious demand expectations [4]. - Alumina sentiment is bullish because of the fermentation of Guinea's mining policy, but the over - capacity pattern remains unchanged [4]. - Nickel prices are in a difficult position, with the surplus contradiction continuing, but the cost support is strong, and the range - bound pattern is difficult to reverse [4]. Energy and Chemicals - Industrial silicon futures are expected to continue their downward trend due to the expected increase in supply and high inventory [4]. - Crude oil market has high supply concerns, and the strategy is mainly short - allocation, paying attention to OPEC's decision on the July production plan [8]. - PTA and ethylene glycol markets have short - term adjustments, but the downside support is strong [8]. - Methanol prices are falling due to increased arrivals and production [10]. Building Materials - Soda ash has no clear signal to stop falling, and it is recommended to hold short positions in the 09 contract and short on rebounds [8]. - Float glass prices are not expected to bottom out and rebound before a new round of cold repairs by glass factories, and it is recommended to hold existing short positions in the FG509 contract [8]. Steel and Minerals - Rebar is expected to be weak in the second quarter, and it is recommended to continue holding short positions in out - of - the - money call options [5][6]. - Hot - rolled coil prices are expected to be weak in the second quarter, and new orders are advised to wait and see [6]. - Iron ore supply is expected to be in surplus in the future, and it is recommended to hold the 9 - 1 positive spread combination and wait for opportunities to short far - month contracts [6]. Coal and Coke - Coking coal prices are under downward pressure due to sufficient supply and weak downstream demand, and the strategy is short - allocation [6]. - Coke prices are expected to be weak due to the weakening of demand and the possible second - round price cut [6]. Agricultural Products - Cotton prices are expected to rise as tariffs support export orders, and attention should be paid to weather conditions in production areas and macro - changes [10]. - Rubber prices are in a weak range - bound pattern due to seasonal production increases and poor demand transmission, and it is recommended to hold short positions in call options [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the commodity futures market, cotton has strong upward momentum, while new - energy metals continue to decline [1]. - A - shares are expected to maintain an upward - trending oscillation, but the market volume remains low, and structural differences still exist. Attention should be paid to the low - level long - entry opportunities for IM and IF [2]. - The bond market has a strong profit - taking sentiment, and there are significant uncertainties in both the macro and capital aspects. Caution is still needed [2]. - Gold prices are expected to be strong due to the escalation of the Gaza conflict and other factors. Silver follows the trend of gold [2][4]. - Copper prices are expected to oscillate within a range due to uncertainties in the macro - environment and cautious demand expectations [4]. - Alumina has a short - term supply shortage but a medium - term oversupply situation, and the price game intensifies. The price of Shanghai aluminum continues to oscillate strongly [4]. - Nickel prices will continue to oscillate within a range as the demand enters the off - season, and there are both supporting and suppressing factors [4]. - The supply of lithium carbonate is loose, and the demand increment is limited, so the price is expected to be weak [4]. - Industrial silicon futures are expected to maintain a weak trend due to the imbalance between supply and demand [6]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are expected to be weak in the second quarter, and iron ore has a long - term oversupply situation [6]. - The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to be weak due to supply - demand imbalances [6][8]. - The prices of soda ash and float glass are expected to be weak due to supply surpluses [8]. - Crude oil prices may rebound in the short term due to geopolitical uncertainties, but short - selling on rallies is recommended under the overall supply - surplus background [8]. - The polyester market may adjust in the short term, but it has strong support at the lower level [8][10]. - Methanol prices are expected to continue to decline due to cost and supply factors despite some demand improvements [10]. - Polyolefin prices are expected to decline as demand returns to a low level, and the rebound height is limited [10]. - Cotton prices are supported by the expected increase in export orders [10]. - Natural rubber prices are expected to be weak due to the increase in supply and decrease in demand [10]. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On Tuesday, A - shares oscillated strongly, with small - and micro - cap stocks performing well. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased slightly to 1.21 trillion yuan (previous value: 1.12 trillion yuan). The media and commerce and retail sectors led the gains, while the national defense and military industry, coal, and real estate sectors declined slightly. Stock index futures rose with the spot index, with IM and IF leading the gains. After the contract roll - over, the spread decreased significantly, and the basis maintained a differentiated state of being stable in the near - term and weak in the long - term. Although there is a lack of significant fundamental and policy - driven support in the market recently, A - shares are expected to maintain an upward - trending oscillation under the promotion of long - term financial market - stabilizing policies. However, the market volume remains low, and structural differences still exist. Attention should be paid to the low - level long - entry opportunities for IM and IF [2]. Treasury Bonds - The LPR was lowered as expected, and the bond market had a strong profit - taking sentiment. Yesterday, treasury bond futures opened higher in the morning and then oscillated downward, with most contracts closing slightly lower. In terms of the macro - economy, domestic economic data is average, and there is no new progress in Sino - US trade relations, with medium - term uncertainties remaining. In terms of liquidity, the LPR was lowered by 10BP as expected, but it was less than the deposit - rate cut. The bond market shows a trend of "good news exhausted." Although long - term interest rates are expected to decline, there are significant uncertainties in both the macro and capital aspects of the bond market. Under the high - valuation pattern, the market is greatly affected by capital - market expectations, and overall caution is still needed [2]. Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - The escalation of the Gaza conflict has led to a resurgence of geopolitical risks, disturbing the market. The future US tariff policy remains highly uncertain, and the US still faces risks of economic stagflation and government debt pressure. The risks of restructuring the global trade pattern and monetary system under the trend of anti - globalization have not been eliminated. In the long - term, the situation is favorable for gold prices, and the support for gold prices near the long - term moving average is evident. The gold - silver ratio is high, and silver follows the trend of gold. For cautious investors, selling out - of - the - money put options or buying on dips can be considered [2][4]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Yesterday, copper prices oscillated higher in the morning and remained strong at night. In the macro - environment, the drag of tariffs is gradually weakening, and the market's expectation of the global economy has improved marginally, but uncertainties remain as the US is still in negotiations with most countries. The US dollar index continued to weaken, falling below 100. Domestic economic data is mixed, and the LPR was lowered by 10BP as expected. In terms of supply and demand, the decline in smelting processing fees has slowed down but remains at an absolute low. Exchange inventories have rebounded for several days, the support from the consumption peak season has faded, and demand expectations are cautious. Overall, due to the many uncertainties in the macro - environment, the weak US dollar index, and cautious demand expectations, copper prices are expected to oscillate within a range [4]. Aluminum and Alumina - Yesterday, alumina oscillated in the morning, dropped rapidly after the night - session opening, and then recovered part of the losses. Shanghai aluminum opened slightly higher and remained strong. In the macro - environment, the drag of tariffs is gradually weakening, and the market's expectation of the global economy has improved marginally, but uncertainties remain as the US is still in negotiations with most countries. The US dollar index continued to weaken, falling below 100. Domestic economic data is mixed, and the LPR was lowered by 10BP as expected. In terms of alumina, the Guinean government's ore policy remains uncertain, and there is no further progress for now. However, the ore production expansion in the first quarter was good, and China's bauxite imports from January to April maintained high growth. Attention should be paid to the duration of production stoppages. Domestically, there are still concerns about production cuts, but the medium - term oversupply expectation remains unchanged. Shanghai aluminum has limited directional drivers, and exchange inventories continue to decline. Overall, there is a divergence between the short - term supply shortage and medium - term oversupply of alumina, and the price game intensifies. Shanghai aluminum has rigid supply constraints, and attention should be paid to demand expectations, with the price continuing to oscillate strongly [4]. Nickel - In terms of supply, the increase in ore production is slow, and prices are still supported. Under high costs and weak demand, the price of ferronickel is stagnant, and the conversion to high - grade nickel matte may increase. In April, the imports and exports of refined nickel increased simultaneously, the supply did not tighten, and inventories oscillated at a high level. In terms of demand, the downstream consumption of stainless steel has entered the off - season, and steel mills are cautious in purchasing. Due to the continuous decline in the market share of ternary materials, the incremental demand for nickel from the new - energy sector is limited. Overall, as demand enters the off - season, the fundamentals are weak, but there are frequent disturbances in the resource end, and the ore price still supports the nickel industry chain. With the interweaving of long and short factors, there is no clear directional driver, and nickel prices will continue to oscillate within a range. Attention should be paid to the progress of nickel ore production expansion in Indonesia and the implementation of the Philippine export ban. For new orders, waiting for the opportunity to sell call options at the high end of the price range is recommended [4]. Energy and Chemicals Industrial Silicon - In terms of supply, there are rumors that large northwest factories plan to restart previously shut - down production capacities, and as the wet season approaches, southwest production capacities may resume supply, increasing market concerns about supply surpluses. In terms of demand, the latest production plan for polysilicon is about 94,000 tons, providing relatively limited support for the demand for upstream industrial silicon. Although the terminal demand for organic silicon has recovered, the incremental demand from monomer plants at this stage is insufficient. Overall, under the background of the intensified expectation of supply - demand imbalance and the weakening cost support, industrial silicon futures are expected to maintain a weak trend and remain in a short - position configuration [6]. Crude Oil - Geopolitical tensions have resurfaced as the Iran - US nuclear agreement negotiation has encountered setbacks, and Israel is preparing to attack Iranian nuclear facilities, bringing uncertainties to the market. In terms of supply, Saudi Arabia has repeatedly stated that it can tolerate low oil prices for a long time, and the consecutive two - month increase in production indicates a possible strategic shift towards increasing production and expanding market share. Attention should be paid to OPEC's production policy for July at the June meeting. Overall, short - term geopolitical uncertainties may cause oil prices to rebound, but short - selling on rallies is recommended under the overall supply - surplus background [8]. Polyester - In terms of PTA supply, the 1.2 - million - ton - per - year plant of Xinjiang Zhongtai restarted over the weekend and will officially produce products tomorrow. The plant was shut down for maintenance on March 31. The restart and maintenance of plants coexist, and the capacity utilization rate remained unchanged at 77.80% compared with the previous working day. In terms of ethylene glycol supply, the overall operating rate is 56.43% (an increase of 0.49%). As of May 19, the total inventory of MEG at major ports in East China was 63.73 million tons, a decrease of 2.65 million tons compared with last Thursday. In terms of demand, the polyester operating rate remains high, but there is an expectation of a decline in the future. The comprehensive sales - to - production ratio of polyester sample enterprises is 36.63%, and end - users have mostly replenished their inventories previously, so the inquiry willingness is weak in the short term. Overall, due to the poor cash flow of the polyester industry, there is an expectation of production cuts in the demand side, which has a negative impact on the market. The market may adjust in the short term, but it has strong support at the lower level [8][10]. Methanol - This week, the signing volume of northwest sample production enterprises is 4.29 million tons (a decrease of 0.96 million tons), which is at a relatively low level. Jiangsu Sierbang plans to restart soon, and the 600,000 - ton - per - year acetic acid plant of Hubei Qianxin has been successfully put into operation, which will improve the methanol demand in the surrounding areas. Affected by the shutdown of some coal mines and the concentrated procurement of coastal power plants, coal prices stopped falling this week, but the current social inventory is extremely high, and coal prices are still more likely to fall than rise. The arrival volume will increase significantly this week, and attention should be paid to the port inventory accumulation speed. Overall, although there are positive factors in demand, due to negative cost and supply factors, methanol prices are expected to continue to decline [10]. Polyolefin - Israel's preparation to attack Iranian nuclear facilities has led to a slight increase in international oil prices. Currently, the results of the Iran - US negotiation and the Russia - Ukraine peace negotiation are uncertain, and crude oil lacks a unilateral driver. The demand for rush - to - export is short - lived, and this week, the demand for polyolefins has returned to a low level, with the spot trading volume significantly slowing down, and factories generally lowering their quotes. The number of maintenance plants has increased, the operating rate of PE production enterprises has decreased by 2% compared with last week, and that of PP has decreased by 1%. The reduction in supply provides some support for prices. In the off - season, demand is difficult to improve, and even if crude oil prices rise or supply decreases, the rebound height of polyolefins is limited [10]. Building Materials Soda Ash - In May, the implementation of plant maintenance continued. Yesterday, Kunlun started maintenance, and the maintenance of Fatou was postponed. It is expected that the daily production of soda ash will drop to around 93,000 tons. However, last week, the new production capacity of Lianyungang Soda Industry was put into operation, and the output will gradually be released. The expansion cycle of soda ash production capacity has not ended, and the supply elasticity is high. Moreover, the raw material price has been continuously decreasing, and the theoretical profits of the three major production processes in the soda ash industry are positive. The sustainability of the concentrated large - scale maintenance of soda ash plants remains to be observed. According to the announced maintenance plan, the inventory digestion of soda ash is still limited, and the high inventory of upstream enterprises may continue to suppress prices. Overall, there is no clear signal for soda ash prices to stop falling. The previously recommended short position in the soda ash 09 contract can be held patiently, the stop - loss line can be lowered to lock in some profits in advance, and for new orders, short - selling on rallies is recommended [8]. Float Glass - In recent days, the speculative demand has been fair. Yesterday, the average sales - to - production ratio of the four major production areas dropped to 105.5% (- 7%). After the spot price dropped to a low level, it stimulated the purchasing demand of traders. However, in April, all real - estate investment indicators weakened. Yesterday, the central bank slightly lowered the LPR by 10 basis points, showing restraint in policy. The downward trend of the real - estate completion cycle has not ended, and seasonal effects will also appear. Without a significant reduction in supply, glass factories may continue to accumulate inventory passively during the off - season. Only when glass factories start a new round of cold - repairs can the pressure of supply - demand imbalance during the off - season be changed. Attention should be paid to the speed of cost reduction and its impact on the maintenance willingness of glass factories. Overall, before glass factories start a new round of cold - repairs, glass prices do not have the conditions to bottom out. It is recommended to hold the previously established short position in the FG509 contract and set a stop - loss line to lock in some profits in advance [8]. Agricultural Products Cotton - In terms of weather, there is precipitation in some areas of northern and southern Xinjiang, and the wind is relatively strong in some places. In terms of supply, as the temperature in Xinjiang continues to rise, most cotton fields have emerged and are generally in the true - leaf stage, with good overall growth. In terms of demand, the Sino - US tariff policy has eased, some previously suspended production and shipping orders have restarted, and the inventory pressure of textile enterprises' finished products has been relieved. In addition, there has been continuous rainfall in the US cotton - producing areas recently, and the drought ratio has decreased significantly. Overall, the unexpected reduction in Sino - US tariffs is expected to increase export orders. Attention should be paid to the weather in the producing areas and macro - economic changes [10]. Natural Rubber - The automobile consumption stimulus policy has promoted the growth of terminal demand, but tire enterprises are restricted by the backlog of finished - product inventories, so the enthusiasm for starting production lines is difficult to significantly increase, and the willingness to stock up on rubber has also weakened. The port inventory reduction rhythm is generally slow, while the upstream rubber - tapping has entered the seasonal production - increasing period. The phenological conditions in domestic producing areas are better than in previous years, and the production in southern Thailand will also gradually increase. The fundamentals of natural rubber maintain a situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand. The strategy of selling call options should be continued to be held. Recently, attention should be paid to the recovery degree of export - driven demand under the background of the phased easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations [10]. Steel and Minerals Rebar - Yesterday, the spot price of rebar continued to be weak. The prices in Shanghai and Hangzhou remained stable, while that in Guangzhou dropped by 20. The spot trading volume was generally weak. In April, all real - estate investment data weakened. Yesterday, the central bank announced a 10 - basis - point reduction in the LPR, with the reduction being smaller than that of the deposit rate the previous day, showing restraint in interest - rate cuts to reserve room for future cuts. Steel still shows a pattern of relatively strong reality but weak expectation. As the temperature rises and rainfall in the south gradually increases, the impact of seasonal factors on the demand for construction steel will gradually appear in June. Domestic long - process rebar mills maintain a profit margin of about 100. Without strict production - restriction policies, the supply pressure may gradually accumulate in the demand off - season. It is maintained that rebar prices will be weak in the second quarter, and the short - term price range is [3000, 3150]. It is recommended to continue holding the position of selling out - of - the - money call options, RB2510C3250 [6]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Yesterday, the spot price of hot - rolled coil was weakly stable. The prices in Shanghai and Lecong remained stable, and the spot trading volume was average. Steel still shows a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation. The direct export of steel is strong, and steel mills have little pressure in recent order - taking. In terms of indirect export, home - appliance orders have improved. However, the comprehensive tariff rate imposed by the US on China is high, the external demand pressure in the second quarter has only been alleviated but not eliminated, and the suspension period is only 90 days, so there is still high uncertainty in long - term orders. Domestic long - process steel mills have good profits, and the supply pressure may gradually accumulate in the traditional demand off - season. It is expected that hot - rolled coil prices will be weak in the second quarter, and the short - term price range

Key Points Summary of the Research Report 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bearish**: Methanol, Coking Coal, Soda Ash, Crude Oil, Polyolefins, Rubber [1][8][10] - **Bullish**: Cotton [10] - **Range - bound**: Stock Index Futures, Treasury Bonds, Precious Metals, Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper, Nickel), Industrial Silicon, Iron Ore, Coke, PTA [2][4][5][6][8][10] - **Weakly Bearish**: Rebar, Hot - rolled Coil, Carbonate Lithium, Glass, Methanol [6][8][10] - **Weakly Bullish**: Non - Ferrous Metals (Aluminum and Alumina), Polyester [4][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Overall Market**: The domestic economic data in April was stable, but there was a lack of significant positive factors in the fundamental and policy aspects. The A - share market will continue to fluctuate in the short term, and the downward risk is controllable. The long - term downward trend of bond yields is certain, but there are large uncertainties in the macro and capital aspects [2]. - **Commodity Futures**: Different commodities have different market trends due to various factors such as supply and demand, cost, and geopolitical situation. For example, some commodities are affected by supply increases, cost decreases, or geopolitical easing, showing a downward or weakening trend; while others are supported by supply constraints or demand improvements, showing a bullish or range - bound trend. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: In April, the domestic economic data was stable. The A - share market continued to fluctuate, with the trading volume remaining at a low level. The influence of dividends on the basis of index futures contracts gradually increased. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the A - share market will continue to fluctuate. Considering the role of Central Huijin and policy promotion, the downward risk is controllable. Attention should be paid to low - level long - buying opportunities [2]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Situation**: The bond market rose slightly, and the four major contracts closed up. There were still uncertainties in Sino - US tariffs, and the domestic economic data was mixed. - **Outlook**: The long - term downward trend of bond yields is certain, but there are large uncertainties in the macro and capital aspects. The market is greatly affected by capital expectations, and overall caution is still needed. Attention should be paid to the LPR interest rate [2]. Precious Metals - **Market Situation**: The demand for hedging decreased, and the price of gold fluctuated at a high level. The ratio of gold to silver was high, and silver had strong support. - **Outlook**: Precious metals will maintain a high - level range - bound trend for the time being, waiting for the enhancement of the upward driving force in the large cycle [2][4]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The macro situation was still uncertain, and the supply was in a tight pattern. The domestic consumption peak season was coming to an end, and the demand was affected by the macro aspect. The copper price will continue to fluctuate [4]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The short - term supply of alumina was tight, and the price was strong, but the medium - term over - supply pattern remained unchanged, and the price game intensified. The supply of aluminum was rigidly restricted, and the price continued to fluctuate strongly [4]. - **Nickel**: The fundamentals of nickel lacked directional driving force. The price will maintain a range - bound pattern in the near term, and the odds of unilateral strategies were limited [4]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Situation**: The supply in the north decreased due to equipment maintenance and cost inversion, while the southwest increased production. The demand from the polysilicon industry did not increase, and the industry continued to accumulate inventory. - **Outlook**: The resistance to price increases was still large, and the price will fluctuate [6]. Steel and Iron Ore - **Rebar**: The steel market showed a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation. The real - estate investment weakened, and the supply pressure might increase in the off - season. It was expected to fluctuate weakly in the second quarter, and the short - term price range was [3000, 3150]. It was recommended to continue to hold the sold out - of - the - money call options [6]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The direct and indirect exports of steel were strong, but the long - term external demand was uncertain. The supply pressure might increase in the off - season. It was expected to fluctuate weakly in the second quarter, and the short - term price range was [3150, 3300]. It was recommended to wait and see for new orders [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand structure of iron ore was relatively healthy, but the long - term over - supply pattern was clear. It was recommended to continue to hold the 9 - 1 positive spread combination and wait for the opportunity to short the far - month contract at high prices [6]. Coal and Coke - **Coking Coal**: The supply of coking coal was loose, and the downstream demand was weak. The price was bearish, and the short - selling strategy should be continued [6]. - **Coke**: The demand for coke was supported in the short term, but the market was not optimistic about the long - term demand. The first round of price cuts was successful, and the price trend remained weak [6]. Soda Ash and Glass - **Soda Ash**: The production capacity of soda ash was over - supplied, and the inventory was high. There was no clear signal of a stop - fall. It was recommended to hold the short position of the 09 contract and short on rebounds [8]. - **Glass**: The speculative demand for glass was good, but the real - estate market continued to decline, and the inventory risk was high. It was recommended to hold the short position of the FG509 contract [8]. Crude Oil - **Market Situation**: There were still uncertainties in the macro and geopolitical aspects. The possibility of OPEC+ increasing production was high. - **Outlook**: Without obvious positive factors, the oil price might continue to decline. It was recommended to continue to hold the short - selling strategy [8]. Polyester - **Market Situation**: The supply of PTA was tightened due to large - scale maintenance, and the demand from the polyester industry was at a high level. - **Outlook**: The price was strongly supported and showed a weakly bullish trend [8]. Methanol - **Market Situation**: The planned restart of some maintenance devices and the increase in expected supply, combined with the decline in coal prices, led to a weak methanol trend. - **Outlook**: The price was bearish, and attention should be paid to the increase in the arrival volume [10]. Polyolefins - **Market Situation**: Multiple economic data were poor, and the PE operating rate decreased to the lowest level of the year, while the PP operating rate increased. The L - PP spread widened. - **Outlook**: The downward trend will continue [10]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: The growth of cotton seedlings was good, and the relaxation of Sino - US tariff policies was expected to increase export orders. - **Outlook**: The price was bullish, and attention should be paid to weather and macro changes [10]. Rubber - **Market Situation**: The inventory removal in ports was slow, and the raw materials entered the seasonal production - increasing season. The supply increased while the demand decreased. - **Outlook**: The price was weakly bearish, and the strategy of selling call options should be held [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the commodity futures market, maintain a long - term bullish view on gold, while prices of coking coal and polysilicon are under pressure [1]. - In the stock index market, the A - share market is expected to show a volatile and slightly upward trend in the short - term, with a clear upward trend in the long - term [2]. - The bond market is expected to trade in a range, with optimistic sentiment but high valuation pressure [2]. - Precious metals are expected to trade in a high - level range due to high macro uncertainties [2][4]. - Non - ferrous metals are generally expected to trade in a range, with different influencing factors for each metal [3][4]. - Lithium carbonate and silicon energy are expected to be weak, with a supply - demand imbalance [5][7]. - Black metals are expected to trade in a range before the holiday, with the focus on the implementation of the crude steel reduction policy [7]. - Coke and coking coal have different trends, with coking coal in a supply - surplus situation and coke in a price - increase negotiation stage [8]. - Soda ash and glass are expected to be weak, with soda ash having short - term support but a long - term downward trend, and glass facing increasing inventory pressure [8]. - PTA is expected to have limited upward price movement due to insufficient demand and cost support [9]. - Crude oil is expected to trade in a range due to multiple uncertainties [10]. - Methanol and polyolefins are expected to decline, with factors such as supply and demand changes and approaching option expiration [10][11]. - Rubber is expected to be weak, with a supply - increase and demand - decrease situation [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Futures - **Gold**: Due to the increasing risk of stagflation in the US in the second quarter, hold the previous long positions of Shanghai Gold AU2506. The long - term upward drive of gold is clear, and it is recommended to hold the previous long positions of AU2506 and sell out - of - the - money put options AU2506P752. Silver also has strong support, and it is recommended to hold the sold out - of - the - money put options AG2506P7500 [1][4]. - **Coking Coal**: With limited downstream restocking and high coal mine inventory pressure, hold the previous short positions of coking coal JM2509 [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Due to the expected weakening of the fundamentals, hold the sold call option positions of polysilicon PS2506 - C - 40000 [1]. 3.2 Stock Index and Bond - **Stock Index**: Before the holiday, funds are cautious. The A - share market has a short - term policy support and a long - term upward trend. IC and IM have greater elasticity, while IF and IH are relatively stable [2]. - **Bond**: The bond market is strong, with loose funds and no clear incremental policies. There is no bearish expectation in the macro - aspect, but high valuation pressure exists before the clear easing of monetary policy [2]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price is expected to continue a wide - range oscillation pattern due to uncertain tariff policies, a tight supply at the mine end, and cautious mid - term demand expectations [3][4]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The alumina has a clear upward pressure due to the unchanged over - supply pattern and potential cost reduction. The Shanghai Aluminum is expected to continue to oscillate with limited fundamental driving factors [4]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price is in a range - bound pattern with upward pressure and downward support. New orders are recommended to wait and see before the impact of the Indonesian policy becomes clear [4]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply of lithium carbonate is loose, and the strategy of selling call options should be continued [5]. - **Silicon Energy**: The silicon energy industry is in a supply - surplus situation, and the low - price state will continue [5][7]. - **PTA**: The PTA price has limited upward space due to insufficient demand and cost support [9]. - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil price is expected to oscillate due to uncertainties in trade, geopolitics, and production decisions [10]. - **Methanol**: The methanol price is likely to fall, and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options [10]. - **Polyolefins**: The polyolefin price is expected to decline as the demand enters the off - season and production increases [11]. 3.5 Black Metals - **Rebar**: The rebar price will continue to oscillate before the holiday. The focus in May is on the crude steel reduction policy and the marginal change in the supply - demand structure. The option strategy is better than the single - sided futures strategy [7]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The hot - rolled coil price is expected to oscillate before the holiday. The focus in May is on the marginal change in exports and the crude steel reduction policy [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price will oscillate before the holiday. It is recommended to hold the sold out - of - the - money call options and wait for a clearer production - limit policy [7][9]. 3.6 Coke and Coking Coal - **Coking Coal**: The supply of coking coal is loose, and the previous short positions can be continued, with cautious investors taking profit before the holiday [8]. - **Coke**: The coke price is in a price - increase negotiation stage, and the futures price is expected to bottom out [8]. 3.7 Soda Ash and Glass - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash has short - term support but a long - term downward trend. It is recommended to hold the previous short positions of the 09 contract and adjust the stop - loss line [8]. - **Glass**: The glass price is expected to decline gradually, and it is recommended to hold the previous short positions of the FG509 contract and lock in some profits [8]. 3.8 Rubber - The rubber market has a supply - increase and demand - decrease expectation. It is recommended to continue the strategy of selling call options and pay attention to consumption - stimulating measures before the holiday [11].

兴业期货日度策略：2025.04.28 重点策略推荐及操作建议： 商品期货方面：玻璃空头格局明确，工业硅承压，沪镍成本支撑坚挺。 联系电话：021-80220262 操作上： | 1.地产政策持稳，玻璃厂旺季累库，玻璃 FG509 前空持有； | | --- | | 2.库存继续累积，工业硅 SI2506-C-9000 卖看涨期权持有； | | 3.矿端紧张延续，沪镍卖出看跌期权 NI2506P120000 头寸持有。 | 品种基本面分析及行情研判： | 品种 | 观点及操作建议 | 方向研判 | 分析师 | 联系人 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 政策预期降温，震荡格局延续 上周 A 股延续横盘整理，科技与红利主题反复轮动，沪深两市 | | | | | | 成交额维持在 1.2 万亿元左右。从行业来看，上周综合金融、汽车、 | | | | | | 电力及新能源板块涨幅居前，食品饮料、消费者服务、房地产跌幅 | | | | | | 居前。 | | 投资咨询部 | | | | 期货市场随现货指数震荡调整，上周五 IF、IH、IC 和 IM 涨跌 | | 张舒绮 | 联 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Bullish [1][2][4] - Silver: Bullish with a bias towards selling out - of - the - money put options [4] - Copper: Wide - range oscillation [4] - Aluminum and Alumina: Aluminum in range oscillation, Alumina in weak oscillation [4] - Nickel: Range oscillation [4] - Lithium Carbonate: Weak oscillation [1][4][6] - Silicon Energy: Weak oscillation [6] - Steel and Ore (including Rebar, Hot - rolled Coil, Iron Ore): Weak oscillation [6] - Coking Coal and Coke: Coking Coal in weak oscillation, Coke in bottom - building oscillation [8] - Soda Ash and Glass: Weak oscillation [8] - Polyester: Weak oscillation [8] - Crude Oil: Weak oscillation [10] - Methanol: Decline [10] - Polyolefins: Decline [10] - Rubber: Weak oscillation [10] - Stock Index: Oscillation and consolidation [2] - Treasury Bonds: Range oscillation [2] 2. Core Views - The overall sentiment for going long on gold is still strong, while methanol and lithium carbonate are weak. For gold, due to the weakening of the US dollar and various domestic problems in the US, the upward trend of gold prices continues. For methanol, increasing imports and falling costs lead to a downward price trend. For lithium carbonate, despite some production cuts, the oversupply situation remains [1][2][4][6][10]. - The A - share market has shown a trend of strengthening recently, but the trading volume is still at a low level, and the upward momentum needs to be gathered. The bond market lacks clear directional drivers, and the odds for bulls are not favorable [2]. - For various metals, the financial attributes and supply - demand fundamentals jointly affect the price trends. For example, the weakening of the US dollar supports the prices of copper and other metals, but the supply - demand situation of each metal is different [4]. - In the energy and chemical sectors, factors such as supply - demand relationships, production capacity, and cost changes affect the price trends of products like silicon energy, crude oil, and polyolefins [6][8][10]. - In the steel and coal sectors, the supply - demand situation and policy expectations jointly affect the price trends. For example, the supply of steel - making raw materials is loose, which drags down the overall price of the steel - iron industry chain [6][8]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The A - share market oscillated strongly on Monday, with technology themes rebounding comprehensively. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.07 trillion yuan, still at a low level. The futures market oscillated strongly following the spot index. The market risk preference is expected to stabilize and recover, but the trading volume is low, and the upward momentum needs to be gathered [2]. Treasury Bonds - The bond market oscillated weakly, and the futures bonds closed down across the board. The LPR remained unchanged, which was in line with market expectations. The market still has expectations for loose monetary policy, but the implementation rhythm is uncertain. The current bond market lacks clear directional drivers, and the odds for bulls are not good [2]. Gold and Silver - The US dollar assets are weakening, and the gold price upward trend continues. The US has various problems such as domestic contradictions, stagflation risks, and high - interest - rate environments, which weaken the market's confidence in the US dollar. Gold's monetary attribute is enhanced. It is recommended to hold the previous long positions of AU2506 and raise the stop - loss line. For silver, due to the high gold - silver ratio and the weakening of the driving force for ratio repair, it is recommended to hold the sold out - of - the - money put options AG2506P7500 [2][4]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The weakening of the US dollar index supports the copper price, but the supply - demand situation is complex. The mine end is still tight, and the domestic consumption peak season supports demand, but there are concerns about mid - term export drag. The copper price will continue to have high volatility [4]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The alumina price is under pressure, and the price of Shanghai aluminum is affected by the macro and supply - demand situation. The alumina fundamentals are bearish, and the downward space depends on the cost. The demand concerns for Shanghai aluminum are alleviated, but macro disturbances still exist [4]. - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel ore is affected by weather, and the cost of ferronickel is high. The production of intermediate products is increasing, and the production and capacity of refined nickel are expanding. The demand from stainless steel and new energy is weakening. The nickel price is expected to continue narrow - range oscillation, and selling put options has an advantage in terms of win - rate and odds [4]. Lithium Carbonate - Due to factors such as equipment maintenance and inventory reduction pressure, some lithium ore production lines have reduced production, but the supply reduction may be limited. The terminal vehicle market is active, but the demand transmission is not smooth. The lithium carbonate fundamentals remain loose, and the strategy of selling call options should be continued [4][6]. Silicon Energy - The industrial silicon has a plan for furnace reduction and maintenance, and the new production capacity in the southwest region is being tested. The polysilicon market shows that the rush - installation demand is coming to an end, and the demand in the domestic market has dropped sharply. The industry is in a state of oversupply, and the low - price state will continue [6]. Steel and Ore - **Rebar**: The spot price has rebounded, and the inventory is decreasing. Before the May Day holiday, downstream may replenish inventory moderately. The market still has expectations for policies. Considering the supply of steel - making raw materials, the rebar price is expected to oscillate downward in the second quarter, and it is recommended to hold the previous short positions of RB2510 [6]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The spot price has risen, and the inventory is decreasing. Before the end of the month, downstream pre - holiday replenishment and policy expectations may support the market sentiment. The demand for plates is weakening, and the hot - rolled coil price is expected to oscillate downward. It is recommended to hold the previous short positions of HC2510 [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The short - term supply - demand structure of iron ore is relatively healthy, and the inventory of iron elements is decreasing. Before the May Day holiday, steel mills may replenish raw materials. However, due to the Sino - US trade war and the release of overseas mine production capacity, the iron ore supply is expected to be in surplus, and the price is expected to decline in the long term. It is recommended to hold the previous short positions of I2509 and consider the 9 - 1 positive spread opportunity [6]. Coal and Coke - **Coking Coal**: The supply of Mongolian coal is sufficient, and the production of domestic large mines is stable. The de - stocking pressure of ports and mines is large. The price transmission mechanism is ineffective, and the market's long - term demand expectation is not positive. The supply surplus situation of coking coal is difficult to alleviate, and the previous short - selling strategy should be continued [8]. - **Coke**: The seasonal increase in pig iron production supports the demand for coke, but steel mills are controlling the arrival of goods. The second round of price increase for coke may be difficult to promote. The coking profit has been slightly repaired, and the coke fundamentals remain loose. The spot market is still in a game, and the futures price is mainly bottom - building [8]. Soda Ash and Glass - **Soda Ash**: Some enterprises are under maintenance, and the daily production has decreased slightly. The demand is not strong, and the industry has problems such as over - capacity, loose supply, and passive inventory accumulation. The soda ash price is expected to decline slightly, and it is recommended to hold the previous short positions of the 09 contract [8]. - **Float Glass**: Affected by the real - estate market, the rigid demand for glass is weak, and the speculative demand is not sustainable. The inventory is mainly concentrated in upstream glass factories, and the de - stocking speed in the peak season is slow. The glass price is expected to continue to decline slightly, and it is recommended to hold the previous short positions of the FG509 contract [8]. Polyester - The PTA production capacity utilization rate is stable, and the social inventory has decreased. The ethylene glycol production capacity utilization rate is 62.3%, and the inventory in the main ports in East China has accumulated. The terminal load has decreased, and the demand support is weak. The PTA market lacks positive drivers, and the price may continue to oscillate weakly [8]. Crude Oil - The macro - situation is complex, and the demand is weak, lacking support for oil prices. The expected damage to demand and the limited implementation of OPEC + compensatory production cuts are bearish factors for oil prices. If there is no further positive driver, the oil price is likely to fall after reaching a resistance level [10]. Methanol - The methanol import volume is expected to increase, and the future supply pressure is increasing. The pit - mouth coal price has decreased slightly, and the coal inventory may increase after the end of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway maintenance. The increase in supply and the decrease in cost lead to a decline in methanol prices, and it is recommended to hold short positions patiently [10]. Polyolefins - In March, the import volume of PE and PP decreased, and the export volume increased. The increase in export volume is due to the increase in equipment maintenance in Southeast Asia, not the improvement of overseas demand. The domestic supply is in surplus, and the short - selling view remains unchanged. It is recommended to exit the L - PP spread position of the 05 contract as it has reached the profit - taking target [10]. Rubber - The port inventory is decreasing, but the demand is affected by the high inventory of tire enterprises' finished products. The Yunnan rubber - producing area has started tapping, and the supply is expected to increase. The supply - demand situation of rubber is bearish, and the strategy of selling call options should be continued. Attention should be paid to the continuity of domestic consumption - stimulation policies [10]