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兴业期货日度策略-20250610
Xing Ye Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 13:38
Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Equity Index Futures**: Shockingly stronger [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Range-bound [1] - **Gold**: Shock [1] - **Silver**: Shockingly stronger [1] - **Copper**: Range-bound [4] - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum - Range-bound; Alumina - Shockingly weaker [4] - **Nickel**: Range-bound [4] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Shockingly weaker [4] - **Industrial Silicon**: Shock [6] - **Steel and Ore (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore)**: Shock [5][6] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Shockingly weaker [9] - **Soda Ash and Float Glass**: Soda Ash - Bearish; Float Glass - Bearish [9] - **Crude Oil**: Shockingly weaker [11] - **Methanol**: Decline [11] - **Polyolefins**: Decline [11] - **Cotton**: Shockingly stronger [10] - **Rubber**: Shockingly weaker [10] Core Views - The second - round Sino - US trade negotiations have started, with the US releasing positive signals, but no clear information yet. The domestic economy still needs policy support, and there are uncertainties in the overseas macro - environment [1]. - The supply - demand relationship of various commodities is affected by factors such as macro - economy, seasonality, and production capacity changes, resulting in different price trends [1][4][6][9][11] Summary by Related Catalogs Equity Index Futures - The A - share market continued to be strong on Monday, with the science - innovation sector warming up. The trading volume of the two markets increased slightly to 1.31 trillion yuan. The pharmaceutical, comprehensive, and textile and apparel sectors led the gains, while the food and beverage, automobile, and home appliance industries declined slightly. The basis of index futures converged, and the spread increased as the last trading day of the current - month contract approached. However, due to weak domestic demand price signals and overseas uncertainties, the short - term upward momentum may weaken [1] Treasury Bonds - The bond market is affected by macro - uncertainties and cannot form a trend. The short - term liquidity is further relaxed, which boosts the market, but the upward pace of the bond market may be slow due to the simultaneous strength of stocks and bonds and limited expectations of comprehensive and substantial easing [1] Precious Metals - **Gold**: The short - term price is expected to be volatile, while the medium - and long - term price center will move up. Strategies include buying on dips based on long - term moving averages or holding short - put options [4]. - **Silver**: The gold - silver ratio is high, and silver has the driving force to repair its valuation upwards. Conservative investors can hold short - put options, while aggressive investors can lightly test long positions in the AG2508 contract [2][4] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The macro - environment has high uncertainties, and the supply of the mine end is tight. The long - term smelting processing fee may be negative, increasing the losses of smelting enterprises. The demand is cautious due to the off - season and uncertainties. The LME inventory is decreasing. Short - term market sentiment and funds may amplify price fluctuations [4] - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The macro - environment is uncertain. For alumina, the supply pressure increases as the production capacity resumes, and the price may run close to the cost line. For aluminum, the supply is constrained, but the demand policy is uncertain, with limited directional drive [4] - **Nickel**: The supply and demand surplus contradiction continues, but there is cost support at the bottom. The fundamental changes are limited, and the price is in a shock pattern, with option strategies being relatively dominant [4] Chemicals - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is loose, and the lithium price is in a weak shock at a low level due to factors such as inventory accumulation in the downstream and the recovery of production capacity in the lithium salt production [6] - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. However, due to the improvement of the macro - sentiment and the digestion of previous negatives, the probability of a deep decline is low. It is recommended to intervene in short - put options [6] Steel and Ore - **Rebar**: The spot price fluctuates narrowly, and the demand has entered the off - season. The raw material price is under pressure, and the probability of the spot price falling to repair the discount of the futures price is high. It is recommended to continue holding short - call options [5][6] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The spot price fluctuates narrowly. The plate demand is tough, but the market expectation is cautious. The price center is expected to move down, and it is recommended to continue holding the previously recommended short positions in the 10 - contract [5][6] - **Iron Ore**: The supply will increase seasonally, and the inventory has increased. The medium - and long - term probability of a supplementary decline is high. Conservative investors can hold the 9 - 1 positive spread combination, while aggressive investors can hold short positions in the I2601 contract with a stop - loss line [5][6][9] Coking Coal and Coke - **Coking Coal**: The supply surplus situation has not been alleviated, and the coal price is prone to fall. Attention should be paid to whether there are policy - based production restrictions at the mine end [9] - **Coke**: The third - round price cut has been implemented. The demand is expected to weaken, and the futures price trend is weak [9] Building Materials - **Soda Ash**: The supply is loose, and the inventory is high. It is recommended to maintain a bearish view, hold short positions in the 09 - contract, and short on rebounds based on the ammonia - alkali cash cost line [9] - **Float Glass**: The downstream has entered the off - season, the demand is pessimistic, and the inventory is high. It is recommended to hold short positions in the FG509 contract and consider arbitrage strategies [9] Energy - **Crude Oil**: Affected by macro - and geopolitical factors, the oil price hits the upper resistance area, but the rebound space is limited due to OPEC+ production increase and weak global demand, and it maintains high - volatility characteristics [11] - **Methanol**: Overseas device start - up rates are rising, and imports and production are high. Traditional demand is in the off - season, and the price is prone to fall. It is recommended to short - call options first and short the 09 - contract futures second [11] Polyolefins - New production capacities have been put into operation, and the supply pressure of PP is higher than that of PE. It is recommended to focus on the expansion of the L - PP spread [11] Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: With the improvement of domestic macro - data, the short - term price may be shockingly stronger due to good weather in the main producing areas, improved downstream export data, and a decline in commercial inventory [10] - **Rubber**: The port inventory is slightly decreasing, but the demand is not ideal. The supply is expected to increase while the demand decreases, and the short - term price is difficult to have a trend - type rebound [10]
兴业期货日度策略-20250609
Xing Ye Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 12:12
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The allocation value of stock indices continues to increase, with a clear upward trend in the long - term. It is recommended to buy IF and IM far - month contracts on dips [1]. - The intention to protect liquidity in the bond market is clear, and the expectation of the bond market has slightly improved, but it is difficult to form a trend - based market [1]. - For precious metals, the short - term gold price is expected to be volatile, and the medium - to - long - term price center will rise. It is advisable to buy on dips or hold short out - of - the - money put options. Silver has a high probability of upward valuation repair [4]. - For base metals, copper, aluminum, and nickel prices are expected to be range - bound, while alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile [4]. - For energy and chemical products, crude oil prices have limited upside potential and will maintain high volatility; methanol and polyolefin prices are expected to decline [10]. - For building materials, the prices of soda ash and glass are expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to hold short positions [8]. - For steel and coal, the prices of steel products, iron ore, coking coal, and coke are expected to be volatile, with a weakening trend [5][8]. - For agricultural products, cotton prices are expected to be range - bound, and rubber prices are expected to be weakly volatile [10]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Indices - Last week, the A - share market was strong, with communication and non - ferrous metals leading the gains, and home appliances and automobiles leading the losses. The trading volume on Friday decreased slightly to 1.18 trillion yuan. - In June, the A - share market started well, with technology stocks driving market sentiment and slightly boosting trading volume. - Overseas macro uncertainties have reduced global economic growth expectations, but Chinese assets have attracted the attention of foreign institutions. - The upward trend of stock indices is clear, but short - term breakthroughs require an increase in trading volume. It is recommended to buy IF and IM far - month contracts on dips [1]. Bonds - The central bank's intention to protect the market is clear, and the early announcement of repurchase operations has boosted market confidence. - Last Friday, bond futures closed higher. After the China - US call, China - US economic and trade consultations will be held in London. - The macro situation is uncertain, and the bond market is difficult to form a trend - based market. Short - term market conditions are mainly affected by liquidity [1]. Precious Metals - Gold: The short - term price is expected to be volatile, and the medium - to - long - term price center will rise. It is advisable to buy on dips or hold short out - of - the money put options. - Silver: The gold - silver ratio is high, and the valuation of silver is low. If the gold price remains strong, the probability of upward valuation repair of silver increases. It is advisable to hold short out - of - the money put options [4]. Base Metals Copper - Last week, copper prices fluctuated within a range. Macro uncertainties remain high, and the supply of copper ore is still tight. - The demand is affected by macro uncertainties and the domestic consumption off - season. - LME inventories are decreasing, while COMEX and SHFE inventories are increasing. Copper prices are expected to remain range - bound [4]. Aluminum and Alumina - Alumina: The supply is uncertain, but the short - term impact is weakening. The resumption of production is expected to increase supply pressure, and prices may continue to run close to the cost line. - Aluminum: The supply is constrained, with support at the bottom, but the demand policy is uncertain, and the directional driving force is limited [4]. Nickel - The supply of nickel ore is gradually recovering, and the supply of refined nickel is in excess. The demand from the stainless steel and new energy sectors is weak. - The price of nickel is expected to remain range - bound, and it is advisable to hold short call options [4]. Energy and Chemical Products Crude Oil - The US non - farm payrolls data exceeded expectations, and geopolitical disturbances continue. The number of US oil rigs has decreased significantly. - The demand for gasoline and diesel in the US is lower than expected. Oil prices have limited upside potential and will maintain high volatility [10]. Methanol - Overseas methanol plant operating rates have increased, and the price of thermal coal is stable. - Affected by positive factors such as the recovery of olefin plant demand and China - US talks, methanol futures prices have rebounded, but further upside is limited [10]. Polyolefins - The production of polyolefins has increased slightly, and more production capacity is expected to resume this week. - Downstream industries are entering the off - season, and the operating rate is decreasing. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long the L - PP spread [10]. Building Materials Soda Ash - The production of soda ash is expected to increase in June, while demand is weak. The supply is relatively loose, and inventory is high. - It is recommended to hold short positions in the SA509 contract and go short on rebounds near the cash cost line [2][8]. Glass - The glass market has entered the off - season, with weak demand and high inventory. - It is recommended to hold short positions in the FG509 contract and consider long - short spread strategies [8]. Steel and Coal Steel Products - The spot prices of steel products are weak, and demand has entered the off - season. - The results of the China - US trade negotiations will affect market sentiment. It is recommended to hold short call options for rebar and short positions for hot - rolled coils [5][8]. Iron Ore - The static supply - demand structure of imported iron ore is healthy, but the supply is expected to increase seasonally, and demand may decline. - It is recommended to hold the 9 - 1 positive spread combination or short the I2601 contract with a stop - loss [5][8]. Coking Coal and Coke - The supply of coking coal is in excess, and the price rebound is not sustainable. - The demand for coke is weak, and the price is under pressure [8]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The weather in the Xinjiang cotton - producing area is normal, and downstream demand is gradually recovering. - It is advisable to hold positions patiently and wait for a breakthrough in the price range [10]. Rubber - The supply of rubber is increasing, while demand is decreasing. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [10].
兴业期货日度策略-20250606
Xing Ye Qi Huo· 2025-06-06 11:45
Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The market risk preference may continue to rise after the positive signal from the Sino-US presidential call, and the stock index has a clear upward trend in shock, but short - term upward breakthrough needs further accumulation of capital and policy benefits [1]. - The central bank's intention to protect liquidity is clear, the short - end expectation of bonds has improved, but the long - end is weak, and the bond market is in an interval shock [1]. - Gold is affected by short - term risk aversion and long - term favorable factors yet to ferment, showing a shock - strong trend; silver is supported by the high gold - silver ratio [4]. - Copper price is affected by the macro - environment, with supply constraints and cautious demand expectations, and is in an interval shock [4]. - Alumina price is under pressure due to the resumption of production capacity and sufficient ore inventory [4]. - Nickel price is in an interval shock due to the balance between supply recovery and resource - country policy support [4]. - Lithium price is in a weak shock due to oversupply [6]. - Metal silicon industry is expected to accumulate inventory, and the short - term rebound height is limited [6]. - The black building materials sector is affected by macro - events and fundamentals, with prices in shock, and some varieties can hold corresponding option positions [6]. - Coal and coke prices are at the bottom and in shock due to oversupply and weak demand [9]. - Soda ash and float glass are in a shock - weak situation due to oversupply and lack of demand improvement [9]. - Oil price is in a weak shock with a downward center of gravity due to OPEC+ production increase and inventory changes [9]. - PTA supply increases and demand is weak, showing a weak shock trend [11]. - Methanol price may fall due to seasonal demand and import changes [11]. - Polyolefin price is in a downward trend due to supply increase and demand decline [11]. - Cotton price is in an interval shock due to good supply prospects and weak demand [11]. - Rubber price is in a weak shock due to weak demand and seasonal production increase [13]. Summary by Categories Stock Index - The A - share market has been strengthening this week, with trading volume increasing. The stock index is in a shock - upward trend, but short - term breakthrough needs more favorable factors [1]. Treasury Bond - The performance of treasury bonds was differentiated yesterday, with the long - end weak and the short - end strong. The central bank's operation affects market expectations, and the bond market is in an interval shock [1]. Precious Metals - Gold is affected by short - term risk aversion and long - term favorable factors yet to ferment, showing a shock - strong trend. Silver is supported by the high gold - silver ratio, and one can hold short - position out - of - the - money put options [4]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by the macro - environment, with supply constraints and cautious demand expectations, copper price is in an interval shock [4]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Alumina price is under pressure due to the resumption of production capacity and sufficient ore inventory. Aluminum has supply constraints but demand uncertainty [4]. - **Nickel**: Nickel price is in an interval shock due to the balance between supply recovery and resource - country policy support [4]. Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium**: Lithium price is in a weak shock due to oversupply [6]. - **Metal Silicon**: The metal silicon industry is expected to accumulate inventory, and the short - term rebound height is limited [6]. - **Crude Oil**: Oil price is in a weak shock with a downward center of gravity due to OPEC+ production increase and inventory changes [9]. - **PTA**: PTA supply increases and demand is weak, showing a weak shock trend [11]. - **Methanol**: Methanol price may fall due to seasonal demand and import changes [11]. - **Polyolefin**: Polyolefin price is in a downward trend due to supply increase and demand decline [11]. Black Building Materials - **Steel and Ore**: The black building materials sector is affected by macro - events and fundamentals, with prices in shock. Some varieties can hold corresponding option positions [6]. - **Coal and Coke**: Coal and coke prices are at the bottom and in shock due to oversupply and weak demand [9]. - **Soda Ash and Float Glass**: Soda ash and float glass are in a shock - weak situation due to oversupply and lack of demand improvement [9]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Cotton price is in an interval shock due to good supply prospects and weak demand [11]. - **Rubber**: Rubber price is in a weak shock due to weak demand and seasonal production increase [13].
兴业期货日度策略-20250605
Xing Ye Qi Huo· 2025-06-05 11:45
兴业期货日度策略:2025.06.05 重点策略推荐及操作建议: 商品期货方面:焦煤、纯碱及 PTA 基本面驱动偏空。 联系电话:021-80220262 操作上: 品种基本面分析及行情研判: | 品种 | 观点及操作建议 | 方向研判 | 分析师 | 联系人 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 特朗普"美丽大法案"或加快全球资金再布局 | 震荡 | | | | | 周三 A 股市场整体反弹,创业板、小微盘风格延续强势,沪深 | | | | | | 两市成交额提升至 1.18(前值 1.16)万亿元。从行业来看,零售 | | | | | | 商贸、轻工制造板块领涨,交通运输、国防军工行业小幅收跌。股 | | 投资咨询部 | | | | 指期货方面,lC、IM 延续相对强势,但远月合约贴水回归显著低 | | 张舒绮 | 联系人:房紫薇 | | | 位。 | | 从业资格: | 021-80220135 | | | 高盛表示,特朗普的"美丽大法案"的第 899 条款,赋予美国 | | F3037345 | 从业资格: | | | 对拥有美国投资的外国人征收最高 20% ...
兴业期货日度策略-20250604
Xing Ye Qi Huo· 2025-06-04 11:38
Key Points Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Index futures: Long on dips [1] - Treasury bonds: Range-bound [1] - Gold and silver: Bullish with dips for buying or selling out-of-the-money put options [1] - Non-ferrous metals (copper): Range-bound [4] - Non-ferrous metals (aluminum and alumina): Range-bound for alumina, bearish for aluminum [4] - Non-ferrous metals (nickel): Range-bound, option strategies preferred [4] - Lithium carbonate: Bearish [4] - Silicon energy: Bearish [6] - Steel and ore: Bearish for rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore [6] - Coking coal and coke: Bearish [8] - Soda ash and glass: Bearish [8] - Crude oil: Bearish with an eye on geopolitical resistance [8] - Methanol: Bearish [10] - Polyolefins: Bearish [10] - Cotton: Range-bound [10] - Rubber: Bearish [10] 2. Core Views - The A-share market is building a long-term investment environment, with limited downside risk and increasing allocation value, but short-term fundamentals and policies lack significant positives [1] - The bond market remains cautious due to uncertain domestic economic expectations and a lack of new positives [1] - Gold prices are bullish in the long term, with short-term fluctuations driven by risk aversion [1] - Non-ferrous metal prices are affected by US tariffs and policy uncertainties, with supply constraints and cautious demand [4] - The lithium carbonate market has a clear supply surplus and weak demand, with prices likely to remain low [4] - The silicon energy market has weak demand and potential inventory accumulation, with prices expected to be low [6] - The steel and ore market has poor demand expectations and slow supply reduction, with prices under pressure [6] - The coking coal and coke market has a supply surplus and weak demand, with prices likely to decline [8] - The soda ash and glass market has increasing supply and weak demand, with prices remaining bearish [8] - Crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical risks and OPEC+ production increases, with short-term focus on resistance [8] - Methanol prices are under pressure due to increasing supply and weak demand, despite potential port restrictions [10] - Polyolefin prices are likely to decline due to new capacity and weakening demand [10] - Cotton prices are range-bound, with attention on weather and macro changes [10] - Rubber prices are bearish due to increasing supply and weak demand [10] 3. Summary by Category Index Futures - Monday's A-share market opened low and closed high, with low trading volume and sector rotation [1] - Tariff policy uncertainties suppress market sentiment, but policy support and long-term investment environment construction limit downside risk [1] - Strategy: Long on dips [1] Treasury Bonds - Yesterday's bond futures were range-bound, with most contracts slightly down and some slightly up [1] - May's Caixin PMI was average, and the market remains cautious due to uncertain domestic economic expectations and a lack of new positives [1] - Strategy: Range-bound trading [1] Precious Metals - Gold prices are bullish in the long term, with short-term fluctuations driven by risk aversion [1] - Silver follows gold, with a high gold-silver ratio [1] - Strategy: Buy on dips or sell out-of-the-money put options [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper prices are affected by US tariffs and policy uncertainties, with supply constraints and cautious demand [4] - Aluminum and alumina prices are affected by US tariffs and supply uncertainties, with prices expected to be low [4] - Nickel prices are range-bound, with weak fundamentals and policy uncertainties [4] - Strategy: Range-bound trading or option strategies [4] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market has a clear supply surplus and weak demand, with prices likely to remain low [4] - Strategy: Bearish trading [4] Silicon Energy - The silicon energy market has weak demand and potential inventory accumulation, with prices expected to be low [6] - Strategy: Bearish trading [6] Steel and Ore - Rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore prices are under pressure due to poor demand expectations and slow supply reduction [6] - Strategy: Bearish trading or option strategies [6] Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal and coke market has a supply surplus and weak demand, with prices likely to decline [8] - Strategy: Bearish trading [8] Soda Ash and Glass - The soda ash and glass market has increasing supply and weak demand, with prices remaining bearish [8] - Strategy: Bearish trading or arbitrage strategies [8] Crude Oil - Crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical risks and OPEC+ production increases, with short-term focus on resistance [8] - Strategy: Range-bound trading [8] Methanol - Methanol prices are under pressure due to increasing supply and weak demand, despite potential port restrictions [10] - Strategy: Bearish trading [10] Polyolefins - Polyolefin prices are likely to decline due to new capacity and weakening demand [10] - Strategy: Bearish trading [10] Cotton - Cotton prices are range-bound, with attention on weather and macro changes [10] - Strategy: Range-bound trading [10] Rubber - Rubber prices are bearish due to increasing supply and weak demand [10] - Strategy: Bearish trading [10]
兴业期货日度策略-20250529
Xing Ye Qi Huo· 2025-05-29 13:11
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Downward - driven commodities**: Coking coal, glass, methanol [1] - **Equity index**: Sideways [2] - **Treasury bonds**: Range - bound [2] - **Gold and silver**: Sideways to weak [2][4] - **Non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, nickel)**: Range - bound [4] - **Lithium carbonate**: Sideways to weak [4][6] - **Silicon energy**: Downward [6] - **Steel and ore (rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore)**: Sideways to weak [6] - **Coking coal and coke**: Bearish [8] - **Soda ash and glass**: Bearish [8] - **Crude oil**: Sideways to weak [8] - **Methanol**: Downward [8][10] - **Polyolefins**: Downward [10] - **Cotton**: Sideways [10] - **Rubber**: Sideways to weak [10] 2. Core Views - **Commodity futures**: Coking coal, glass, and methanol have clear downward drivers. Hold previous short positions in JM2509 for coking coal, FG509 for glass, and MA509 for methanol due to supply - demand imbalances [1] - **Equity index**: The A - share market continues to trade in a narrow range with low volume. While the downside risk is controllable due to policy support, the short - term upward momentum is insufficient [2] - **Treasury bonds**: The bond market is under pressure. Although the long - term yield trend is downward, the current directional drivers are limited, and the odds are not favorable [2] - **Precious metals**: Gold prices are affected by short - term factors and lack upward momentum. It is recommended to buy on dips or sell out - of - the - money put options. Silver follows gold, and selling out - of - the money put options is also advisable [4] - **Non - ferrous metals**: Uncertainties in the macro environment and demand expectations affect prices. Copper, aluminum, and nickel are expected to trade in ranges, with supply - demand dynamics and policy factors influencing their trends [4] - **Lithium carbonate**: Supply reduction is limited, and demand is weak, leading to inventory accumulation and downward pressure on prices [4][6] - **Silicon energy**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak, putting pressure on silicon prices [6] - **Steel and ore**: Traditional demand seasons are ending, and supply pressure may increase. Cost reduction risks also exist, leading to a bearish outlook for steel and ore prices [6] - **Coking coal and coke**: Supply is abundant, and demand is weak, resulting in downward price trends [8] - **Soda ash and glass**: Soda ash production is likely to increase, and demand is lackluster. Glass demand is weak, and prices are expected to decline [8] - **Crude oil**: With the possibility of production increases, the medium - to - long - term oil price center is expected to shift downward [8] - **Methanol**: Supply is growing, and demand is weakening, leading to inventory accumulation and downward price pressure [8][10] - **Polyolefins**: Futures prices have reached new lows, and with lower costs and weaker demand, short positions should be held [10] - **Cotton**: Weather and demand factors need to be monitored. The market is expected to trade in a range [10] - **Rubber**: Cost support is weakening, and supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, leading to a downward price trend [10] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Futures - **Coking coal**: Supply is in continuous surplus, and previous short positions in JM2509 should be held [1] - **Glass**: Pessimistic demand expectations, and previous short positions in FG509 should be held [1] - **Methanol**: Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and previous short positions in MA509 should be held [1] 3.2 Equity Index - The A - share market is in a narrow - range, low - volume sideways trend. The red - chip defensive and technology - growth styles rotate rapidly, and funds are cautious. The downside risk is controllable, but the short - term upward momentum is insufficient [2] 3.3 Treasury Bonds - The bond market is in a weak sideways pattern. Although the central bank maintains loose liquidity, market concerns about redemptions are rising, and the bond market is under pressure [2] 3.4 Precious Metals - Gold prices are affected by short - term factors such as tariffs and geopolitics. It is recommended to buy on dips or sell out - of - the money put options. Silver follows gold, and selling out - of - the money put options is also advisable [2][4] 3.5 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Uncertainties in the macro environment and demand expectations affect prices. The supply of ore is tight, but the demand is cautious, and the market is expected to trade in a range [4] - **Aluminum and alumina**: The macro environment is uncertain. Alumina supply has short - and long - term differences, and prices may fluctuate. Aluminum is expected to trade sideways [4] - **Nickel**: The market is in an oversupply situation. Although the previous short - call option strategy can be continued, new short positions should be avoided due to policy uncertainties [4] 3.6 Lithium Carbonate - Supply reduction is limited, and demand is weak, leading to inventory accumulation and downward pressure on prices [4][6] 3.7 Silicon Energy - Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak, putting pressure on silicon prices. Attention should be paid to the furnace - starting situation in the southwest during the wet season [6] 3.8 Steel and Ore - **Rebar**: The traditional demand season is ending, and supply pressure may increase. Cost reduction risks also exist. It is recommended to hold short - call options or short the 10 - contract on rebounds [6] - **Hot - rolled coil**: External and internal demand is weak, and cost reduction risks exist. Short positions in the 10 - contract should be held [6] - **Iron ore**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. It is recommended to hold the 9 - 1 positive spread combination and short the 01 - contract [6] 3.9 Coking Coal and Coke - **Coking coal**: Supply is abundant, and demand is weak, resulting in inventory accumulation and downward price trends [8] - **Coke**: Terminal demand is in the off - season, and steel prices are falling, leading to a decline in production willingness and downward price trends [8] 3.10 Soda Ash and Glass - **Soda ash**: Production is likely to increase, and demand is lackluster. Short positions in the 09 - contract should be held, and new short positions can be taken on rebounds [8] - **Glass**: Demand is weak, and prices are expected to decline. Short positions in the FG509 contract should be held, and the buy - glass 01 - sell - soda ash 01 arbitrage can be continued [8] 3.11 Crude Oil - With the possibility of production increases, the medium - to - long - term oil price center is expected to shift downward [8] 3.12 Methanol - Supply is growing, and demand is weakening, leading to inventory accumulation and downward price pressure [8][10] 3.13 Polyolefins - Futures prices have reached new lows, and with lower costs and weaker demand, short positions should be held [10] 3.14 Cotton - Weather and demand factors need to be monitored. The market is expected to trade in a range [10] 3.15 Rubber - Cost support is weakening, and supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, leading to a downward price trend. The short - call option strategy can be adjusted and continued [10]
兴业期货日度策略:氧化铝、黄金偏强,工业硅跌势未止-20250522
Xing Ye Qi Huo· 2025-05-22 11:21
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Alumina, Cotton [1][2][10] - Bearish: Industrial Silicon, Carbonate Lithium, Methanol, Polyolefin, Rubber [1][4][10] - Sideways: Stock Index, Treasury Bond, Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Iron Ore, Crude Oil, PTA, Ethylene Glycol [2][4][6][8] - Sideways with a Downward Bias: Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Coking Coal, Coke, Soda Ash, Float Glass [5][6][8] Core Viewpoints - The report provides a daily strategy for various futures products, analyzing their fundamentals and market conditions, and giving corresponding investment suggestions [1][2]. - Due to factors such as policy uncertainty, supply - demand imbalances, and seasonal effects, different futures products show different trends [2][4][6]. Summary by Product Category Equity Index Futures - The downward risk of the stock index continues to weaken, but the upward movement awaits the accumulation of trading volume. In the current shock - building phase, focus on the long - position opportunities of IF and IM corresponding to domestic demand consumption and the technology main line [2]. Treasury Bond Futures - The sentiment in the bond market remains cautious, and the long - term downward trend of yields is clear, but the short - term new driving forces are limited, and the range - bound pattern is expected to continue [2]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are running strongly due to the weakening of the US dollar and geopolitical disturbances. It is recommended to hold existing long positions in AU2508, and new orders can consider selling out - of - the - money put options on gold/silver or buying on pullbacks. Silver follows the trend of gold [2][4]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper prices are expected to move within a range due to macro uncertainties and cautious demand expectations [4]. - Alumina sentiment is bullish because of the fermentation of Guinea's mining policy, but the over - capacity pattern remains unchanged [4]. - Nickel prices are in a difficult position, with the surplus contradiction continuing, but the cost support is strong, and the range - bound pattern is difficult to reverse [4]. Energy and Chemicals - Industrial silicon futures are expected to continue their downward trend due to the expected increase in supply and high inventory [4]. - Crude oil market has high supply concerns, and the strategy is mainly short - allocation, paying attention to OPEC's decision on the July production plan [8]. - PTA and ethylene glycol markets have short - term adjustments, but the downside support is strong [8]. - Methanol prices are falling due to increased arrivals and production [10]. Building Materials - Soda ash has no clear signal to stop falling, and it is recommended to hold short positions in the 09 contract and short on rebounds [8]. - Float glass prices are not expected to bottom out and rebound before a new round of cold repairs by glass factories, and it is recommended to hold existing short positions in the FG509 contract [8]. Steel and Minerals - Rebar is expected to be weak in the second quarter, and it is recommended to continue holding short positions in out - of - the - money call options [5][6]. - Hot - rolled coil prices are expected to be weak in the second quarter, and new orders are advised to wait and see [6]. - Iron ore supply is expected to be in surplus in the future, and it is recommended to hold the 9 - 1 positive spread combination and wait for opportunities to short far - month contracts [6]. Coal and Coke - Coking coal prices are under downward pressure due to sufficient supply and weak downstream demand, and the strategy is short - allocation [6]. - Coke prices are expected to be weak due to the weakening of demand and the possible second - round price cut [6]. Agricultural Products - Cotton prices are expected to rise as tariffs support export orders, and attention should be paid to weather conditions in production areas and macro - changes [10]. - Rubber prices are in a weak range - bound pattern due to seasonal production increases and poor demand transmission, and it is recommended to hold short positions in call options [10].
日度策略:棉花上行驱动较强,新能源金属跌势未止-20250521
Xing Ye Qi Huo· 2025-05-21 12:05
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the commodity futures market, cotton has strong upward momentum, while new - energy metals continue to decline [1]. - A - shares are expected to maintain an upward - trending oscillation, but the market volume remains low, and structural differences still exist. Attention should be paid to the low - level long - entry opportunities for IM and IF [2]. - The bond market has a strong profit - taking sentiment, and there are significant uncertainties in both the macro and capital aspects. Caution is still needed [2]. - Gold prices are expected to be strong due to the escalation of the Gaza conflict and other factors. Silver follows the trend of gold [2][4]. - Copper prices are expected to oscillate within a range due to uncertainties in the macro - environment and cautious demand expectations [4]. - Alumina has a short - term supply shortage but a medium - term oversupply situation, and the price game intensifies. The price of Shanghai aluminum continues to oscillate strongly [4]. - Nickel prices will continue to oscillate within a range as the demand enters the off - season, and there are both supporting and suppressing factors [4]. - The supply of lithium carbonate is loose, and the demand increment is limited, so the price is expected to be weak [4]. - Industrial silicon futures are expected to maintain a weak trend due to the imbalance between supply and demand [6]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are expected to be weak in the second quarter, and iron ore has a long - term oversupply situation [6]. - The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to be weak due to supply - demand imbalances [6][8]. - The prices of soda ash and float glass are expected to be weak due to supply surpluses [8]. - Crude oil prices may rebound in the short term due to geopolitical uncertainties, but short - selling on rallies is recommended under the overall supply - surplus background [8]. - The polyester market may adjust in the short term, but it has strong support at the lower level [8][10]. - Methanol prices are expected to continue to decline due to cost and supply factors despite some demand improvements [10]. - Polyolefin prices are expected to decline as demand returns to a low level, and the rebound height is limited [10]. - Cotton prices are supported by the expected increase in export orders [10]. - Natural rubber prices are expected to be weak due to the increase in supply and decrease in demand [10]. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On Tuesday, A - shares oscillated strongly, with small - and micro - cap stocks performing well. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased slightly to 1.21 trillion yuan (previous value: 1.12 trillion yuan). The media and commerce and retail sectors led the gains, while the national defense and military industry, coal, and real estate sectors declined slightly. Stock index futures rose with the spot index, with IM and IF leading the gains. After the contract roll - over, the spread decreased significantly, and the basis maintained a differentiated state of being stable in the near - term and weak in the long - term. Although there is a lack of significant fundamental and policy - driven support in the market recently, A - shares are expected to maintain an upward - trending oscillation under the promotion of long - term financial market - stabilizing policies. However, the market volume remains low, and structural differences still exist. Attention should be paid to the low - level long - entry opportunities for IM and IF [2]. Treasury Bonds - The LPR was lowered as expected, and the bond market had a strong profit - taking sentiment. Yesterday, treasury bond futures opened higher in the morning and then oscillated downward, with most contracts closing slightly lower. In terms of the macro - economy, domestic economic data is average, and there is no new progress in Sino - US trade relations, with medium - term uncertainties remaining. In terms of liquidity, the LPR was lowered by 10BP as expected, but it was less than the deposit - rate cut. The bond market shows a trend of "good news exhausted." Although long - term interest rates are expected to decline, there are significant uncertainties in both the macro and capital aspects of the bond market. Under the high - valuation pattern, the market is greatly affected by capital - market expectations, and overall caution is still needed [2]. Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - The escalation of the Gaza conflict has led to a resurgence of geopolitical risks, disturbing the market. The future US tariff policy remains highly uncertain, and the US still faces risks of economic stagflation and government debt pressure. The risks of restructuring the global trade pattern and monetary system under the trend of anti - globalization have not been eliminated. In the long - term, the situation is favorable for gold prices, and the support for gold prices near the long - term moving average is evident. The gold - silver ratio is high, and silver follows the trend of gold. For cautious investors, selling out - of - the - money put options or buying on dips can be considered [2][4]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Yesterday, copper prices oscillated higher in the morning and remained strong at night. In the macro - environment, the drag of tariffs is gradually weakening, and the market's expectation of the global economy has improved marginally, but uncertainties remain as the US is still in negotiations with most countries. The US dollar index continued to weaken, falling below 100. Domestic economic data is mixed, and the LPR was lowered by 10BP as expected. In terms of supply and demand, the decline in smelting processing fees has slowed down but remains at an absolute low. Exchange inventories have rebounded for several days, the support from the consumption peak season has faded, and demand expectations are cautious. Overall, due to the many uncertainties in the macro - environment, the weak US dollar index, and cautious demand expectations, copper prices are expected to oscillate within a range [4]. Aluminum and Alumina - Yesterday, alumina oscillated in the morning, dropped rapidly after the night - session opening, and then recovered part of the losses. Shanghai aluminum opened slightly higher and remained strong. In the macro - environment, the drag of tariffs is gradually weakening, and the market's expectation of the global economy has improved marginally, but uncertainties remain as the US is still in negotiations with most countries. The US dollar index continued to weaken, falling below 100. Domestic economic data is mixed, and the LPR was lowered by 10BP as expected. In terms of alumina, the Guinean government's ore policy remains uncertain, and there is no further progress for now. However, the ore production expansion in the first quarter was good, and China's bauxite imports from January to April maintained high growth. Attention should be paid to the duration of production stoppages. Domestically, there are still concerns about production cuts, but the medium - term oversupply expectation remains unchanged. Shanghai aluminum has limited directional drivers, and exchange inventories continue to decline. Overall, there is a divergence between the short - term supply shortage and medium - term oversupply of alumina, and the price game intensifies. Shanghai aluminum has rigid supply constraints, and attention should be paid to demand expectations, with the price continuing to oscillate strongly [4]. Nickel - In terms of supply, the increase in ore production is slow, and prices are still supported. Under high costs and weak demand, the price of ferronickel is stagnant, and the conversion to high - grade nickel matte may increase. In April, the imports and exports of refined nickel increased simultaneously, the supply did not tighten, and inventories oscillated at a high level. In terms of demand, the downstream consumption of stainless steel has entered the off - season, and steel mills are cautious in purchasing. Due to the continuous decline in the market share of ternary materials, the incremental demand for nickel from the new - energy sector is limited. Overall, as demand enters the off - season, the fundamentals are weak, but there are frequent disturbances in the resource end, and the ore price still supports the nickel industry chain. With the interweaving of long and short factors, there is no clear directional driver, and nickel prices will continue to oscillate within a range. Attention should be paid to the progress of nickel ore production expansion in Indonesia and the implementation of the Philippine export ban. For new orders, waiting for the opportunity to sell call options at the high end of the price range is recommended [4]. Energy and Chemicals Industrial Silicon - In terms of supply, there are rumors that large northwest factories plan to restart previously shut - down production capacities, and as the wet season approaches, southwest production capacities may resume supply, increasing market concerns about supply surpluses. In terms of demand, the latest production plan for polysilicon is about 94,000 tons, providing relatively limited support for the demand for upstream industrial silicon. Although the terminal demand for organic silicon has recovered, the incremental demand from monomer plants at this stage is insufficient. Overall, under the background of the intensified expectation of supply - demand imbalance and the weakening cost support, industrial silicon futures are expected to maintain a weak trend and remain in a short - position configuration [6]. Crude Oil - Geopolitical tensions have resurfaced as the Iran - US nuclear agreement negotiation has encountered setbacks, and Israel is preparing to attack Iranian nuclear facilities, bringing uncertainties to the market. In terms of supply, Saudi Arabia has repeatedly stated that it can tolerate low oil prices for a long time, and the consecutive two - month increase in production indicates a possible strategic shift towards increasing production and expanding market share. Attention should be paid to OPEC's production policy for July at the June meeting. Overall, short - term geopolitical uncertainties may cause oil prices to rebound, but short - selling on rallies is recommended under the overall supply - surplus background [8]. Polyester - In terms of PTA supply, the 1.2 - million - ton - per - year plant of Xinjiang Zhongtai restarted over the weekend and will officially produce products tomorrow. The plant was shut down for maintenance on March 31. The restart and maintenance of plants coexist, and the capacity utilization rate remained unchanged at 77.80% compared with the previous working day. In terms of ethylene glycol supply, the overall operating rate is 56.43% (an increase of 0.49%). As of May 19, the total inventory of MEG at major ports in East China was 63.73 million tons, a decrease of 2.65 million tons compared with last Thursday. In terms of demand, the polyester operating rate remains high, but there is an expectation of a decline in the future. The comprehensive sales - to - production ratio of polyester sample enterprises is 36.63%, and end - users have mostly replenished their inventories previously, so the inquiry willingness is weak in the short term. Overall, due to the poor cash flow of the polyester industry, there is an expectation of production cuts in the demand side, which has a negative impact on the market. The market may adjust in the short term, but it has strong support at the lower level [8][10]. Methanol - This week, the signing volume of northwest sample production enterprises is 4.29 million tons (a decrease of 0.96 million tons), which is at a relatively low level. Jiangsu Sierbang plans to restart soon, and the 600,000 - ton - per - year acetic acid plant of Hubei Qianxin has been successfully put into operation, which will improve the methanol demand in the surrounding areas. Affected by the shutdown of some coal mines and the concentrated procurement of coastal power plants, coal prices stopped falling this week, but the current social inventory is extremely high, and coal prices are still more likely to fall than rise. The arrival volume will increase significantly this week, and attention should be paid to the port inventory accumulation speed. Overall, although there are positive factors in demand, due to negative cost and supply factors, methanol prices are expected to continue to decline [10]. Polyolefin - Israel's preparation to attack Iranian nuclear facilities has led to a slight increase in international oil prices. Currently, the results of the Iran - US negotiation and the Russia - Ukraine peace negotiation are uncertain, and crude oil lacks a unilateral driver. The demand for rush - to - export is short - lived, and this week, the demand for polyolefins has returned to a low level, with the spot trading volume significantly slowing down, and factories generally lowering their quotes. The number of maintenance plants has increased, the operating rate of PE production enterprises has decreased by 2% compared with last week, and that of PP has decreased by 1%. The reduction in supply provides some support for prices. In the off - season, demand is difficult to improve, and even if crude oil prices rise or supply decreases, the rebound height of polyolefins is limited [10]. Building Materials Soda Ash - In May, the implementation of plant maintenance continued. Yesterday, Kunlun started maintenance, and the maintenance of Fatou was postponed. It is expected that the daily production of soda ash will drop to around 93,000 tons. However, last week, the new production capacity of Lianyungang Soda Industry was put into operation, and the output will gradually be released. The expansion cycle of soda ash production capacity has not ended, and the supply elasticity is high. Moreover, the raw material price has been continuously decreasing, and the theoretical profits of the three major production processes in the soda ash industry are positive. The sustainability of the concentrated large - scale maintenance of soda ash plants remains to be observed. According to the announced maintenance plan, the inventory digestion of soda ash is still limited, and the high inventory of upstream enterprises may continue to suppress prices. Overall, there is no clear signal for soda ash prices to stop falling. The previously recommended short position in the soda ash 09 contract can be held patiently, the stop - loss line can be lowered to lock in some profits in advance, and for new orders, short - selling on rallies is recommended [8]. Float Glass - In recent days, the speculative demand has been fair. Yesterday, the average sales - to - production ratio of the four major production areas dropped to 105.5% (- 7%). After the spot price dropped to a low level, it stimulated the purchasing demand of traders. However, in April, all real - estate investment indicators weakened. Yesterday, the central bank slightly lowered the LPR by 10 basis points, showing restraint in policy. The downward trend of the real - estate completion cycle has not ended, and seasonal effects will also appear. Without a significant reduction in supply, glass factories may continue to accumulate inventory passively during the off - season. Only when glass factories start a new round of cold - repairs can the pressure of supply - demand imbalance during the off - season be changed. Attention should be paid to the speed of cost reduction and its impact on the maintenance willingness of glass factories. Overall, before glass factories start a new round of cold - repairs, glass prices do not have the conditions to bottom out. It is recommended to hold the previously established short position in the FG509 contract and set a stop - loss line to lock in some profits in advance [8]. Agricultural Products Cotton - In terms of weather, there is precipitation in some areas of northern and southern Xinjiang, and the wind is relatively strong in some places. In terms of supply, as the temperature in Xinjiang continues to rise, most cotton fields have emerged and are generally in the true - leaf stage, with good overall growth. In terms of demand, the Sino - US tariff policy has eased, some previously suspended production and shipping orders have restarted, and the inventory pressure of textile enterprises' finished products has been relieved. In addition, there has been continuous rainfall in the US cotton - producing areas recently, and the drought ratio has decreased significantly. Overall, the unexpected reduction in Sino - US tariffs is expected to increase export orders. Attention should be paid to the weather in the producing areas and macro - economic changes [10]. Natural Rubber - The automobile consumption stimulus policy has promoted the growth of terminal demand, but tire enterprises are restricted by the backlog of finished - product inventories, so the enthusiasm for starting production lines is difficult to significantly increase, and the willingness to stock up on rubber has also weakened. The port inventory reduction rhythm is generally slow, while the upstream rubber - tapping has entered the seasonal production - increasing period. The phenological conditions in domestic producing areas are better than in previous years, and the production in southern Thailand will also gradually increase. The fundamentals of natural rubber maintain a situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand. The strategy of selling call options should be continued to be held. Recently, attention should be paid to the recovery degree of export - driven demand under the background of the phased easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations [10]. Steel and Minerals Rebar - Yesterday, the spot price of rebar continued to be weak. The prices in Shanghai and Hangzhou remained stable, while that in Guangzhou dropped by 20. The spot trading volume was generally weak. In April, all real - estate investment data weakened. Yesterday, the central bank announced a 10 - basis - point reduction in the LPR, with the reduction being smaller than that of the deposit rate the previous day, showing restraint in interest - rate cuts to reserve room for future cuts. Steel still shows a pattern of relatively strong reality but weak expectation. As the temperature rises and rainfall in the south gradually increases, the impact of seasonal factors on the demand for construction steel will gradually appear in June. Domestic long - process rebar mills maintain a profit margin of about 100. Without strict production - restriction policies, the supply pressure may gradually accumulate in the demand off - season. It is maintained that rebar prices will be weak in the second quarter, and the short - term price range is [3000, 3150]. It is recommended to continue holding the position of selling out - of - the - money call options, RB2510C3250 [6]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Yesterday, the spot price of hot - rolled coil was weakly stable. The prices in Shanghai and Lecong remained stable, and the spot trading volume was average. Steel still shows a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation. The direct export of steel is strong, and steel mills have little pressure in recent order - taking. In terms of indirect export, home - appliance orders have improved. However, the comprehensive tariff rate imposed by the US on China is high, the external demand pressure in the second quarter has only been alleviated but not eliminated, and the suspension period is only 90 days, so there is still high uncertainty in long - term orders. Domestic long - process steel mills have good profits, and the supply pressure may gradually accumulate in the traditional demand off - season. It is expected that hot - rolled coil prices will be weak in the second quarter, and the short - term price range
兴业期货日度策略-20250520
Xing Ye Qi Huo· 2025-05-20 11:51
Key Points Summary of the Research Report 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bearish**: Methanol, Coking Coal, Soda Ash, Crude Oil, Polyolefins, Rubber [1][8][10] - **Bullish**: Cotton [10] - **Range - bound**: Stock Index Futures, Treasury Bonds, Precious Metals, Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper, Nickel), Industrial Silicon, Iron Ore, Coke, PTA [2][4][5][6][8][10] - **Weakly Bearish**: Rebar, Hot - rolled Coil, Carbonate Lithium, Glass, Methanol [6][8][10] - **Weakly Bullish**: Non - Ferrous Metals (Aluminum and Alumina), Polyester [4][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Overall Market**: The domestic economic data in April was stable, but there was a lack of significant positive factors in the fundamental and policy aspects. The A - share market will continue to fluctuate in the short term, and the downward risk is controllable. The long - term downward trend of bond yields is certain, but there are large uncertainties in the macro and capital aspects [2]. - **Commodity Futures**: Different commodities have different market trends due to various factors such as supply and demand, cost, and geopolitical situation. For example, some commodities are affected by supply increases, cost decreases, or geopolitical easing, showing a downward or weakening trend; while others are supported by supply constraints or demand improvements, showing a bullish or range - bound trend. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: In April, the domestic economic data was stable. The A - share market continued to fluctuate, with the trading volume remaining at a low level. The influence of dividends on the basis of index futures contracts gradually increased. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the A - share market will continue to fluctuate. Considering the role of Central Huijin and policy promotion, the downward risk is controllable. Attention should be paid to low - level long - buying opportunities [2]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Situation**: The bond market rose slightly, and the four major contracts closed up. There were still uncertainties in Sino - US tariffs, and the domestic economic data was mixed. - **Outlook**: The long - term downward trend of bond yields is certain, but there are large uncertainties in the macro and capital aspects. The market is greatly affected by capital expectations, and overall caution is still needed. Attention should be paid to the LPR interest rate [2]. Precious Metals - **Market Situation**: The demand for hedging decreased, and the price of gold fluctuated at a high level. The ratio of gold to silver was high, and silver had strong support. - **Outlook**: Precious metals will maintain a high - level range - bound trend for the time being, waiting for the enhancement of the upward driving force in the large cycle [2][4]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The macro situation was still uncertain, and the supply was in a tight pattern. The domestic consumption peak season was coming to an end, and the demand was affected by the macro aspect. The copper price will continue to fluctuate [4]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The short - term supply of alumina was tight, and the price was strong, but the medium - term over - supply pattern remained unchanged, and the price game intensified. The supply of aluminum was rigidly restricted, and the price continued to fluctuate strongly [4]. - **Nickel**: The fundamentals of nickel lacked directional driving force. The price will maintain a range - bound pattern in the near term, and the odds of unilateral strategies were limited [4]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Situation**: The supply in the north decreased due to equipment maintenance and cost inversion, while the southwest increased production. The demand from the polysilicon industry did not increase, and the industry continued to accumulate inventory. - **Outlook**: The resistance to price increases was still large, and the price will fluctuate [6]. Steel and Iron Ore - **Rebar**: The steel market showed a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation. The real - estate investment weakened, and the supply pressure might increase in the off - season. It was expected to fluctuate weakly in the second quarter, and the short - term price range was [3000, 3150]. It was recommended to continue to hold the sold out - of - the - money call options [6]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The direct and indirect exports of steel were strong, but the long - term external demand was uncertain. The supply pressure might increase in the off - season. It was expected to fluctuate weakly in the second quarter, and the short - term price range was [3150, 3300]. It was recommended to wait and see for new orders [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand structure of iron ore was relatively healthy, but the long - term over - supply pattern was clear. It was recommended to continue to hold the 9 - 1 positive spread combination and wait for the opportunity to short the far - month contract at high prices [6]. Coal and Coke - **Coking Coal**: The supply of coking coal was loose, and the downstream demand was weak. The price was bearish, and the short - selling strategy should be continued [6]. - **Coke**: The demand for coke was supported in the short term, but the market was not optimistic about the long - term demand. The first round of price cuts was successful, and the price trend remained weak [6]. Soda Ash and Glass - **Soda Ash**: The production capacity of soda ash was over - supplied, and the inventory was high. There was no clear signal of a stop - fall. It was recommended to hold the short position of the 09 contract and short on rebounds [8]. - **Glass**: The speculative demand for glass was good, but the real - estate market continued to decline, and the inventory risk was high. It was recommended to hold the short position of the FG509 contract [8]. Crude Oil - **Market Situation**: There were still uncertainties in the macro and geopolitical aspects. The possibility of OPEC+ increasing production was high. - **Outlook**: Without obvious positive factors, the oil price might continue to decline. It was recommended to continue to hold the short - selling strategy [8]. Polyester - **Market Situation**: The supply of PTA was tightened due to large - scale maintenance, and the demand from the polyester industry was at a high level. - **Outlook**: The price was strongly supported and showed a weakly bullish trend [8]. Methanol - **Market Situation**: The planned restart of some maintenance devices and the increase in expected supply, combined with the decline in coal prices, led to a weak methanol trend. - **Outlook**: The price was bearish, and attention should be paid to the increase in the arrival volume [10]. Polyolefins - **Market Situation**: Multiple economic data were poor, and the PE operating rate decreased to the lowest level of the year, while the PP operating rate increased. The L - PP spread widened. - **Outlook**: The downward trend will continue [10]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: The growth of cotton seedlings was good, and the relaxation of Sino - US tariff policies was expected to increase export orders. - **Outlook**: The price was bullish, and attention should be paid to weather and macro changes [10]. Rubber - **Market Situation**: The inventory removal in ports was slow, and the raw materials entered the seasonal production - increasing season. The supply increased while the demand decreased. - **Outlook**: The price was weakly bearish, and the strategy of selling call options should be held [10].
兴业期货日度策略-20250429
Xing Ye Qi Huo· 2025-04-29 11:55
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the commodity futures market, maintain a long - term bullish view on gold, while prices of coking coal and polysilicon are under pressure [1]. - In the stock index market, the A - share market is expected to show a volatile and slightly upward trend in the short - term, with a clear upward trend in the long - term [2]. - The bond market is expected to trade in a range, with optimistic sentiment but high valuation pressure [2]. - Precious metals are expected to trade in a high - level range due to high macro uncertainties [2][4]. - Non - ferrous metals are generally expected to trade in a range, with different influencing factors for each metal [3][4]. - Lithium carbonate and silicon energy are expected to be weak, with a supply - demand imbalance [5][7]. - Black metals are expected to trade in a range before the holiday, with the focus on the implementation of the crude steel reduction policy [7]. - Coke and coking coal have different trends, with coking coal in a supply - surplus situation and coke in a price - increase negotiation stage [8]. - Soda ash and glass are expected to be weak, with soda ash having short - term support but a long - term downward trend, and glass facing increasing inventory pressure [8]. - PTA is expected to have limited upward price movement due to insufficient demand and cost support [9]. - Crude oil is expected to trade in a range due to multiple uncertainties [10]. - Methanol and polyolefins are expected to decline, with factors such as supply and demand changes and approaching option expiration [10][11]. - Rubber is expected to be weak, with a supply - increase and demand - decrease situation [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Futures - **Gold**: Due to the increasing risk of stagflation in the US in the second quarter, hold the previous long positions of Shanghai Gold AU2506. The long - term upward drive of gold is clear, and it is recommended to hold the previous long positions of AU2506 and sell out - of - the - money put options AU2506P752. Silver also has strong support, and it is recommended to hold the sold out - of - the - money put options AG2506P7500 [1][4]. - **Coking Coal**: With limited downstream restocking and high coal mine inventory pressure, hold the previous short positions of coking coal JM2509 [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Due to the expected weakening of the fundamentals, hold the sold call option positions of polysilicon PS2506 - C - 40000 [1]. 3.2 Stock Index and Bond - **Stock Index**: Before the holiday, funds are cautious. The A - share market has a short - term policy support and a long - term upward trend. IC and IM have greater elasticity, while IF and IH are relatively stable [2]. - **Bond**: The bond market is strong, with loose funds and no clear incremental policies. There is no bearish expectation in the macro - aspect, but high valuation pressure exists before the clear easing of monetary policy [2]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price is expected to continue a wide - range oscillation pattern due to uncertain tariff policies, a tight supply at the mine end, and cautious mid - term demand expectations [3][4]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The alumina has a clear upward pressure due to the unchanged over - supply pattern and potential cost reduction. The Shanghai Aluminum is expected to continue to oscillate with limited fundamental driving factors [4]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price is in a range - bound pattern with upward pressure and downward support. New orders are recommended to wait and see before the impact of the Indonesian policy becomes clear [4]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply of lithium carbonate is loose, and the strategy of selling call options should be continued [5]. - **Silicon Energy**: The silicon energy industry is in a supply - surplus situation, and the low - price state will continue [5][7]. - **PTA**: The PTA price has limited upward space due to insufficient demand and cost support [9]. - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil price is expected to oscillate due to uncertainties in trade, geopolitics, and production decisions [10]. - **Methanol**: The methanol price is likely to fall, and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options [10]. - **Polyolefins**: The polyolefin price is expected to decline as the demand enters the off - season and production increases [11]. 3.5 Black Metals - **Rebar**: The rebar price will continue to oscillate before the holiday. The focus in May is on the crude steel reduction policy and the marginal change in the supply - demand structure. The option strategy is better than the single - sided futures strategy [7]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The hot - rolled coil price is expected to oscillate before the holiday. The focus in May is on the marginal change in exports and the crude steel reduction policy [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price will oscillate before the holiday. It is recommended to hold the sold out - of - the - money call options and wait for a clearer production - limit policy [7][9]. 3.6 Coke and Coking Coal - **Coking Coal**: The supply of coking coal is loose, and the previous short positions can be continued, with cautious investors taking profit before the holiday [8]. - **Coke**: The coke price is in a price - increase negotiation stage, and the futures price is expected to bottom out [8]. 3.7 Soda Ash and Glass - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash has short - term support but a long - term downward trend. It is recommended to hold the previous short positions of the 09 contract and adjust the stop - loss line [8]. - **Glass**: The glass price is expected to decline gradually, and it is recommended to hold the previous short positions of the FG509 contract and lock in some profits [8]. 3.8 Rubber - The rubber market has a supply - increase and demand - decrease expectation. It is recommended to continue the strategy of selling call options and pay attention to consumption - stimulating measures before the holiday [11].