纯碱玻璃周报 研究员：李轩怡 期货从业证号：F03108920 投资咨询资格证号：Z0018403 目录 第一章 核心逻辑分析 2 第二章 周度数据追踪 10 单位：万吨 纯碱产量 纯碱联碱法开工率 单位：% 纯碱氨碱法开工率 单位：% 50.00% 55.00% 60.00% 65.00% 70.00% 75.00% 80.00% 85.00% 90.00% 95.00% 100.00% 2025 2024 2023 2022 50.00% 55.00% 60.00% 65.00% 70.00% 75.00% 80.00% 85.00% 90.00% 95.00% 100.00% 2025 2024 2023 2022 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 第53 周 第50 周 第47 周 第44 周 第41 周 第38 周 第35 周 第32 周 第29 周 第26 周 第23 周 第20 周 第17 周 第14 周 第11 周 第8周 第5周 第2周 2025年度 2024年度 2023年度 2022年度 2021年度 2020年度 GALAXY FUTURES 2 本周纯碱产量73. ...

大宗商品研究所 能化研发报告 纯碱期货日报 2025 年 11 月 17 日 纯碱期货日报 第一部分 基础数据 | 现货市场 | （元/吨） | 2025/10/27 | 2025/10/24 | 上周 | 日变化 | 周变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 华中重质 | （送到） | 1200 | 1200 | 1200 | 0 | 0 | | 华东重质 | （送到） | 1200 | 1200 | 1200 | 0 | 0 | | 沙河重质 | （送到） | 1190 | 1170 | 1150 | 2 0 | 4 0 | | 西北重质 | （出厂） | 900 | 900 | 910 | 0 | -10 | | 华中轻质 | （出厂） | 1090 | 1090 | 1090 | 0 | 0 | | 华东轻质 | （出厂） | 1100 | 1100 | 1100 | 0 | 0 | | 华北轻质 | （出厂） | 1170 | 1170 | 1170 | 0 | 0 | | 西北轻质 | （出厂） | 900 | 900 | 910 | ...

Group 1: Financial Derivatives - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The technology stocks continue to face pressure, and the stock index is expected to test the support again. The bond market's unilateral trend may be entangled in the short - term [19][21] - Summary of Related Catalogs: - **Stock Index Futures**: The market remained high - volatile last week, with severe differentiation. Technology stocks are under pressure, and the stock index is expected to test the support. The basis of futures first converged and then expanded, and IC's net short - position increased. Suggested strategies include high - level oscillation, paying attention to the 60 - day moving average support, and appropriate long - position building at low levels; IM\IC long 2512 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage; and bullish spread at low levels [19] - **Treasury Futures**: The 10 - month macro - financial and economic indicators are weak, and the policy expectation has slightly increased. However, the probability of monetary policy strengthening is not high. The bond market's unilateral trend is entangled. Suggested strategies include waiting and seeing; holding (TL - 3T) positions and trying to go long on the T - contract current - next quarterly spread [21] Group 2: Agricultural Products - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: Different agricultural products have different market trends, mainly including price fluctuations, supply - demand imbalances, etc. [25][30][34] - Summary of Related Catalogs: - **Soybean Meal**: The monthly supply - demand report has limited bullishness, and the international soybean is in a high - yield pattern. The domestic supply pressure is large, and the crushing profit is under pressure. Suggested strategies include waiting and seeing; selling wide - straddle options [25] - **Sugar**: The Brazilian sugar - making ratio has decreased, and the international sugar price has risen sharply. The global sugar production increase is being realized, and the domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and may be affected by foreign prices in the long - term. Suggested strategies include short - term slightly bullish international sugar price, domestic sugar price range operation; waiting and seeing for arbitrage [30] - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The palm oil is in the off - season, and the de - stocking is slow. The soybean oil follows the overall trend, and the rapeseed oil is expected to continue de - stocking. Suggested strategies include waiting and seeing or high - selling and low - buying [34] - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The CBOT corn futures are down, and the domestic corn spot price is rising, with the futures showing a strong - side oscillation. Suggested strategies include short - term long - position building for the 12 - month CBOT corn on dips, waiting and seeing for the 01 - month contract, and waiting for dips for the 05 and 07 - month contracts; narrowing the 01 - month corn - starch spread [36] - **Hogs**: The overall supply pressure exists, and the pig price is expected to face pressure. Suggested strategies include short - position building; selling wide - straddle options [39] - **Peanuts**: The spot price is strong, but the short - term is still in the bottom - side oscillation. Suggested strategies include long - position building for the 05 - month contract on dips; 15 - month peanut reverse arbitrage; selling pk601 - P - 7600 options [41] - **Eggs**: The demand is average, and the egg price is stable with a slight decline. Suggested strategies include waiting and seeing [48] - **Apples**: The new - season apple inventory is announced, and the price is stable with a slight increase. The supply is relatively tight, and the price is expected to be strong. Suggested strategies include long - position building on dips [50] - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The fundamental contradiction is not significant, and the cotton price oscillates. The new - season cotton supply is large, and the demand is in the off - season. Suggested strategies include waiting and seeing [54] Group 3: Black Metals - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The steel price is in the range - side oscillation, and the double - coking coal has support at the bottom, while the iron ore is considered from a bearish perspective [59][62][64] - Summary of Related Catalogs: - **Steel**: The steel production resumes, and the steel price is in the range - side oscillation. The supply - demand structure suppresses the steel price, but the cost has support. Suggested strategies include range - side oscillation; long - position building on the coil - rebar spread; waiting and seeing [59] - **Double - Coking Coal**: The bottom has support, and the short - term drive is not obvious. The mid - term may have opportunities for long - position building on dips. Suggested strategies include waiting and seeing in the short - term; holding the coking coal 1/5 reverse arbitrage; waiting and seeing [62] - **Iron Ore**: The market is in a weak state. The supply is high in the fourth quarter, and the demand is weak. Suggested strategies include a bearish approach [64] - **Ferroalloys**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the price oscillates in the range with cost support. Suggested strategies include bottom - side oscillation; selling out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [67] Group 4: Non - ferrous Metals - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: Different non - ferrous metals have different trends, including price fluctuations, supply - demand changes, etc. [70][73][77] - Summary of Related Catalogs: - **Precious Metals**: The Fed issued hawkish signals, and the precious metals tumbled. The market will focus on US non - farm data and NVIDIA's performance. Suggested strategies include temporary exit and waiting and seeing [70] - **Copper**: The short - term oscillates. The Fed's hawkish remarks and supply - demand factors affect the price. Suggested strategies include waiting and seeing; long - position building at low levels in the long - term [73] - **Alumina**: Pay attention to the implementation of production cuts and beware of the selling pressure driven by the basis. The supply is in surplus, and the price may oscillate at the bottom before production cuts expand. Suggested strategies include short - term bottom - side oscillation; waiting and seeing [77] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Pay attention to this week's economic data, and the fundamentals are still strong. Suggested strategies include realizing profits gradually and maintaining a mid - term bullish view on dips [81] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The alloy price mainly follows the aluminum price. The cost provides support, but the market trading activity has declined. [87] - **Zinc**: It oscillates in a wide range. The domestic mine is tight, and the price may be affected by macro factors. Suggested strategies include waiting and seeing; holding the SHFE long - LME short arbitrage [92] - **Lead**: It oscillates in the range. The domestic social inventory is increasing, and the price has limited upward momentum. Suggested strategies include partial profit - taking on short positions; selling out - of - the - money call options [94] - **Nickel**: The cost is loosening, and the price oscillates downward. The supply - demand surplus is obvious, and the cost support is weakened. Suggested strategies include short - position building on rebounds [97] - **Stainless Steel**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the raw materials are under pressure. The inventory is increasing, and the price may continue to decline. [100] - **Industrial Silicon**: It oscillates weakly. The demand is weakening, and the price is in the range of (8500, 9400). Suggested strategies include short - position building on rebounds [102]

油脂周报：油脂分化明显，震荡行情延续 研究员：张盼盼 期货从业证号：F03119783 投资咨询证号：Z0022908 目录 第一部分 周度核心要点分析及策略推荐 第二部分 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 内容摘要 近期核心事件&行情回顾： 1. MPOB数据显示，马棕10月期末库存累库至246万吨，产量增11%至204万吨，出口大超预期增19%至169 万吨；而表观消费降至28万吨。 2. SEA数据显示，印度10月棕榈油进口60万吨，豆油进口45万吨，10月葵油进口26万吨，2024/25年度食用 油进口1600万吨。 3.本周菜油超跌反弹后上涨较多，使得菜豆和菜棕价差快速走扩。基本面上，目前马棕逐渐进入减产季，马棕 也将逐渐去库，但预计整体仍处偏高水平，去库速度偏慢，印尼库存持续处于偏低水平，另外印尼最近调整 CPO出口参考价规则，市场对于12月出口税的变化存在期待，产地报价稳中有降低，短期棕榈油经历快速下 跌或出现技术性反弹，但缺乏持续性利多，反弹高度可能有限。目前豆油没有一个比较突出的核心矛盾点，豆 油价格更多跟随油脂整体走势波动，上涨较为乏力，但也更为抗跌。短期国内菜籽供应不足，菜 ...

高位分歧加大 谨防锂价冲高回落 研究员：陈婧 FRM 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询资格证号：Z0018401 第一章 需求分析 4 第二章 供应分析 8 第三章 供需平衡及库存 11 GALAXY FUTURES 1 碳酸锂后市行情展望 综合分析 行情展望及策略推荐： GALAXY FUTURES 2 目录 产业层面：需求端，12月储能走平，动力环降，年末企业通常不会保留高库存，即使当前下游企业较长时间未能低价 采购碳酸锂，年底前也难大规模补库，因此需求端12月预计走弱。供应端，11-12月国内碳酸锂产量缺乏新增，进口 也将有增量弥补，总供应预计至少持平，可能出现环比增加。12月供需边际宽松，去库速度将明显放缓，库销比拐头 向上，较难支持价格进一步走强。现货市场下游自价格涨至8万以上观望情绪就愈发浓厚，近期成交较为清淡，现货价 格也贴水期货合约，并不构成挤仓的基础。 期货层面：当前碳酸锂期货合约持仓历史高位，2601合约持仓更是高达50余万手，反映市场分歧较大。短期市场对11 月去库有较强的一致预期，对12月供需分歧仍存，可能支持价格高位运行。但随着11月下旬对12月的排产逐渐清晰， 时间也逐渐 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the document regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total output of five major steel products declined this week, with a greater reduction in rebar production than in plate production. The overall steel inventory continued to decrease, but hot-rolled coils showed a slight accumulation. The supply-demand structure constrained the performance of steel prices. It is expected that hot metal production will continue to decrease, squeezing raw materials and causing the center of steel prices to move downward. However, due to the launch of the 2025 Central Safety Production Assessment and Inspection, the supply of coking coal is unlikely to increase significantly, providing cost support for steel. Therefore, in the short term, steel prices will remain range-bound, and a breakthrough requires more factors. Hot-rolled coils are expected to perform better than rebar, and the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar is expected to remain in an expansion cycle [7]. - In terms of trading strategies, it is recommended to maintain a range-bound trading approach for single positions, continue to hold long positions on the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar for arbitrage, and adopt a wait-and-see approach for options [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook Summary - **Supply**: This week, the weekly output of small-sample rebar was 200 million tons (-8.54), and that of small-sample hot-rolled coils was 313.66 million tons (-4.50). The daily average hot metal output of 247 blast furnaces was 236.88 million tons (+2.66), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 32.9% (+0.4). Although the profit of electric arc furnaces improved slightly with the decline in scrap steel prices, it remained in a loss, leading to a slight increase in production. The profit of long-process steel also remained in a loss but improved slightly, and hot metal production increased this week [4]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for small-sample rebar was 216.37 million tons (-2.15), and that for small-sample hot-rolled coils was 313.59 million tons (-0.71). Steel demand continued to decline recently, with difficulties in project payment collection for downstream construction sites and a decrease in the number of projects on hand in the fourth quarter, indicating significant demand pressure. From January to October, the growth rate of China's fixed asset investment declined month-on-month, with insufficient incremental investment in domestic projects. In October, the decline in housing sales, land acquisition, new construction, and completion areas widened, with the decline in new construction and completion falling to around -30%, indicating weak data and insufficient willingness among residents to purchase houses, and the real estate market continued to decline. In October, the official manufacturing PMI was 49%, and the S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 50.6%, showing a decline in the manufacturing PMI, with significant weakening in new orders and export data. In October, China's automobile production increased by 12.1% year-on-year, and exports increased by 41.6% year-on-year, maintaining strong positive growth in both domestic and foreign demand. In November, the production schedule of the three major white goods decreased by 21.2% year-on-year, showing a further decline. In the United States, the Markit manufacturing PMI in October was 52.5, up from the previous value of 52, indicating a continued recovery in the manufacturing industry. The number of initial jobless claims last week was 218,000, unchanged from the previous value. The initial value of the eurozone manufacturing PMI in October rose to 50, up from the previous value of 49.8, indicating an increase in the manufacturing PMI. The final values of the manufacturing PMIs in Germany and France, the two largest economies, were 49.6 and 48.8 respectively, remaining in the contraction zone and failing to break out of the predicament [4]. - **Inventory**: In terms of rebar inventory, the mill inventory decreased by 64,200 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 99,500 tons, resulting in a total inventory decrease of 163,700 tons. For hot-rolled coils, the mill inventory increased by 900 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 200 tons, resulting in a total inventory increase of 700 tons. The mill inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 126,100 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 136,100 tons, resulting in a total inventory decrease of 262,200 tons [4]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that hot metal production will continue to decrease, squeezing raw materials and causing the center of steel prices to move downward. However, due to the launch of the 2025 Central Safety Production Assessment and Inspection, the supply of coking coal is unlikely to increase significantly, providing cost support for steel. Therefore, in the short term, steel prices will remain range-bound, and a breakthrough requires more factors. Hot-rolled coils are expected to perform better than rebar, and the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar is expected to remain in an expansion cycle. Future attention should be paid to coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [7]. Chapter 2: Price and Profit Review Summary - **Spot Prices**: On Friday, the aggregated price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,190 yuan (unchanged), and that in Beijing was 3,180 yuan (unchanged). The price of hot-rolled coils in Shanghai was 3,260 yuan (unchanged), and that of Hebei Steel's hot-rolled coils in Tianjin was 3,190 yuan (unchanged) [13]. - **Profit**: The flat - rate electricity profit of electric arc furnaces in East China was -240.38 yuan (+34), and the off - peak electricity profit was -75 yuan (+34) [28]. Chapter 3: Important Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data Summary - **Domestic Macroeconomy**: In the first ten months, China's cumulative increase in social financing scale was 30.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.83 trillion yuan compared with the same period last year. At the end of October, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, and the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 8.2%, both down 0.2 percentage points month - on - month. In October, the newly added social financing was 81.49 billion yuan, a significant decline both year - on - year and month - on - month. The newly added RMB loans were 22 billion yuan. Residential loans decreased by 36.04 billion yuan, and corporate loans were 35 trillion yuan. Currently in the off - season of investment, credit demand is weakening, residential demand is cooling, the real estate market is further cooling, and the contribution of fiscal policy to social financing is weakening. However, it may improve at the end of this year and next year due to the impact of policy - based financial instruments. From January to October 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's fixed asset investment was -1.70%, a further rapid decline. Among them, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was -14.7%, that of manufacturing investment was +2.7%, and that of infrastructure investment was +1.51%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) was -0.1%. The growth rates of the three types of investment continued to contract significantly month - on - month. The real estate market lacks fiscal support and remains a drag on domestic demand. The issuance of government bonds has slowed down compared with the same period last year, affecting infrastructure investment to some extent. The repayment situation of downstream projects is poor, corporate loans are low, and the investment growth rate of the manufacturing industry continues to contract due to insufficient industrial prosperity [30][35]. - **Foreign Macroeconomy**: In the United States, the Markit manufacturing PMI in October was 52.5, up from the previous value of 52, indicating a continued recovery in the manufacturing industry. The number of initial jobless claims last week was 218,000, unchanged from the previous value. The initial value of the eurozone manufacturing PMI in October rose to 50, up from the previous value of 49.8, indicating an increase in the manufacturing PMI. The final values of the manufacturing PMIs in Germany and France, the two largest economies, were 49.6 and 48.8 respectively, remaining in the contraction zone and failing to break out of the predicament [4]. Chapter 4: Steel Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation Summary - **Supply**: The daily average hot metal output of 247 blast furnaces was 236.88 million tons (+2.66), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 32.9% (+0.4). The weekly output of small - sample rebar was 208.54 million tons, a decrease of 8.54 million tons month - on - month. The weekly output of small - sample hot - rolled coils was 313.66 million tons, a decrease of 4.50 million tons month - on - month [53][58]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for small - sample rebar was 216.37 million tons (a 7.6% decrease compared with the same period in the lunar calendar), a decrease of 2.15 million tons month - on - month. The apparent demand for small - sample hot - rolled coils was 313.59 million tons (a 1.67% decrease compared with the same period in the lunar calendar), a decrease of 0.71 million tons month - on - month. The demand for building materials and the production schedule of white goods declined, while the production and export of automobiles maintained strong growth [61]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of rebar decreased, while the total inventory of hot - rolled coils increased slightly. The overall inventory of the five major steel products decreased [4].

供需双弱 成本支撑区间震荡 银河期货研究所 周涛 期货从业证号：F03134259 投资咨询证号：Z0021009 目录 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第三章 周度数据追踪 6 1 资料来源：Wind Bloomberg Mysteel GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 硅铁方面，供应端样本企业开工率与产量双双下降，关注价格来到低位后是否形成减产趋势。需求方面，本周钢联样本钢材表需与 产量继续双双下降，唐山阶段性限产结束后，本周铁水产量出现反弹，但目前钢材利润仍然不佳，原料需求端始终存在下行预期。 成本端方面，枯水期叠加煤炭现货价格强势，各产区铁合金电价总体稳中偏强。总体来看，基本面供需双弱，成本端有所抬升，预 计延续底部震荡走势。 锰硅方面，供应端同样出现小幅下滑，关注后续是否形成减产趋势。需求方面 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, iron ore prices fluctuated at the bottom and dropped to the previous low. The market game intensified, but the rapid decline in terminal demand is expected to dominate the medium - term iron ore prices. The overall iron ore fundamental situation has changed significantly, and it is expected that iron ore prices will mainly operate at a high level with a downward trend [4]. - The demand side shows a situation where domestic demand continues to weaken while overseas steel demand maintains high growth. The valuation of iron ore in the black series remains high, but as domestic terminal demand declines rapidly, the high - valuation of iron ore prices is expected to fall [32]. - For trading strategies, take a bearish view on single - side trading, and adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options trading [4]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Strategies**: Adopt a bearish view on single - side trading, and wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [4]. Iron Ore Core Logic Analysis Supply Side - **Global Iron Ore Shipment**: The global iron ore shipment has been continuously declining from a high level, approaching the level of the same period last year. In 2025 to date, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments is 31.04 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.7%/23 million tons. The weekly shipment from Australia is 17.81 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%/4.6 million tons, and that from Brazil is 7.58 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%/11.4 million tons. The overall supply of the four major mines in the first three quarters increased by 10 million tons year - on - year, and the overseas shipment in the fourth quarter is expected to remain at a relatively high level [7][15]. - **Non - mainstream Ore Shipment**: The global shipment of non - mainstream iron ore has increased slightly month - on - month. In 2025 to date, the weekly average of non - Australian and non - Brazilian ore shipments is 5.66 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.9%/16.4 million tons. The shipment of non - mainstream ore is expected to maintain a high level year - on - year in the fourth quarter, but the year - on - year increase is expected to slow down [16][17]. - **Port Inventory**: This week, the port inventory of imported iron ore continued to increase rapidly, and the total domestic inventory of imported iron ore increased by nearly 3.3 million tons month - on - month. Since August, the total domestic iron element inventory has continued to increase, with an accumulation of over 10 million tons, and is currently at a high level in the past five years [23][26]. Demand Side - **Domestic Demand**: In the third quarter of 2025 to date, domestic molten iron production increased by 3.5%/11.3 million tons year - on - year, and crude steel production increased by 3.2%/12.3 million tons year - on - year. However, the apparent demand for building materials decreased by 5.4%/9.3 million tons year - on - year, and the apparent demand for non - building materials decreased by 1.7%/3.2 million tons year - on - year. The domestic consumption of crude steel (excluding exports) decreased by 3.4%/12.3 million tons year - on - year. The demand for steel in the manufacturing industry has turned from positive growth in the first half of the year to negative growth [32]. - **Overseas Demand**: From January to September, the consumption of overseas iron ore decreased by 2%/15 million tons year - on - year, but the consumption of overseas iron elements increased by nearly 4%/27.6 million tons year - on - year. The consumption of overseas iron elements has been at a high level year - on - year since the second quarter, continuously contributing to the increase. The demand for crude steel in overseas India remains at a relatively high level [32].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: "Oilseed Peanuts and Commodity Peanuts Have a Large Price Difference, Futures Market Rallies and Then Retreats" [1] - Researcher: Liu Dayong [1] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03107370 [1] - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0018389 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - Trading Logic: Peanut trading volume decreased. Henan commodity peanut prices rose, Shandong peanut prices fell, and Northeast prices rose. Imported peanut prices were stable, and imports decreased significantly. Oil mill operating rates remained flat, peanut meal prices were stable, peanut oil prices were weak, and oil mill profit margins were stable. Downstream consumption remained weak, oil mill peanut inventories increased, and peanut oil inventories continued to rise. The market expects peanut production to be flat or slightly higher than last year. Henan peanuts have a high mold rate, and oil mills have not yet made large - scale purchases. This week, the 01 peanut contract rallied and then retreated, and the 1 - 5 spread was strong [4]. - Strategy: Peanuts are in a bottom - oscillating pattern. The 01 peanut contract is in a bottom - oscillating pattern. Consider establishing long positions in the 05 peanut contract on dips. For the spread, conduct reverse arbitrage on the 1 - 5 spread at high levels, and the 12 - 1 industry can try positive arbitrage. An option strategy of selling the pk601 - P - 7600 option can be attempted [4]. Group 4: Chapter 1 - Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - Trading Logic: Analyzes the price trends of different regions of peanuts, import prices, oil mill operations, and downstream consumption, and points out the trends of futures contracts and spreads [4]. - Strategy: Provides trading strategies for futures contracts, spreads, and options [4]. Group 5: Chapter 2 - Core Logic Analysis Peanut Price - Domestic Peanuts: Henan and Northeast peanut prices rose. Shandong Junan large peanuts were at 3.6 yuan/jin, down 0.1 yuan/jin from last week; Henan Zhengyang new - season peanuts were at 3.6 yuan/jin, up 0.1 yuan/jin from last week; Liaoning Changtu Baisha was at 4.5 yuan/jin, up 0.2 yuan/jin from last week; Jilin Fuyu Baisha was at 4.45 yuan/jin, up 0.15 yuan/jin from last week. Commodity peanut trading was average, and Henan peanut prices started to rise [9]. - Oil Mill Oilseed Peanuts: Oil mill purchase prices fell, and most mills stopped purchasing. The basic purchase price was 7300 - 7450 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton from last week [9]. - Imported Peanuts: Sudan new peanuts were at 8600 yuan/ton, Senegalese oilseed peanuts were at 7800 yuan/ton, and Indian 50/60 were quoted at 8000 yuan/ton, with prices stable compared to last week [9]. Domestic Demand - Oil Mill Operating Rate: As of November 13, the peanut oil mill operating rate this week was 16.21%, unchanged from last week [13]. - Oil Mill Inventory: This week, the oil mill arrival volume was 25,100 tons, down 2700 tons from last week. Oil mill peanut inventories were 47,200 tons, up 1300 tons from last week. Peanut oil inventories were 40,500 tons, up 100 tons from last week [13]. Pressing Profit - Pressing Profit: Peanut oil mill purchase prices decreased, peanut meal prices were stable, and peanut oil prices were weak. As a result, the oil mill pressing profit was 259 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton from last week [17]. - Peanut Oil Price: The average price of first - grade peanut oil was 14,500 yuan/ton, stable compared to last week, and the price of small - pressed fragrant peanut oil was 16,300 yuan/ton, also stable compared to last week [17]. - Peanut Meal: Due to the strong soybean meal spot market, the price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal was low, and peanut meal prices were stable at 3210 yuan/ton this week, unchanged from last week [17]. Basis and Spread - Spread: This week, due to the rally and subsequent retreat of the 01 peanut contract, the 1 - 4 peanut spread was strong, stabilizing around - 30 yuan [24]. - Spot - Futures Price Difference: It retreated [24]. Peanut Imports - Peanut Kernel Imports: In September, peanut kernel imports were 34,000 tons, and from January to September, imports were 164,000 tons, a 71% decrease compared to the same period last year [28]. - Peanut Kernel Exports: In September, peanut kernel exports were 10,000 tons, and from January to September, cumulative exports were 115,000 tons, a 24% increase compared to the same period last year [28]. - Peanut Oil Imports: In September, peanut oil imports were 36,000 tons, and from January to September, cumulative peanut oil imports were 291,000 tons, a 47% increase compared to last year [28]. Group 6: Chapter 3 - Weekly Data Tracking - The report provides various data charts, including peanut prices, oil mill operating rates, inventories, pressing profits, basis, spreads, and import/export data, to track the weekly changes in the peanut market [8][12][16]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The high inventory pressure on methanol is increasing, and its downward trend is accelerating. The coal price has rebounded continuously during the coal demand peak season, with the domestic supply remaining ample. The international methanol plant operating rate has increased, and imports have recovered. The downstream demand is stable, but the port inventory continues to accumulate. In the context of high inventory, methanol is expected to continue its downward trend [4]. - Trading strategies include holding short positions for unilateral trading, adopting a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage, and selling call options in the over - the - counter market [4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Raw material coal**: As of November 14, the coal mine operating rates in Ordos and Yulin regions are 71% and 44% respectively. The coal mines have resumed production, and the daily coal output in these two regions is around 4 million tons. The demand is strong, and the pit - mouth price has been rising continuously [4]. - **Supply side**: The profit of coal - to - methanol is around 320 yuan/ton, and the methanol operating rate remains high and stable, with the domestic supply being continuously abundant [4]. - **Import side**: The US dollar price is dropping rapidly, and the import premium has widened. All Iranian plants are operating normally, the non - Iranian operating rate has slightly increased, and the overseas operating rate has returned to a high level. The European and American markets have rebounded slightly, the price difference between China and Europe has narrowed, and the Southeast Asian re - export window has closed. Iran has loaded 540,000 tons in November, and the concessionary tender transactions are still poor, with a large amount of non - Iranian supplies [4]. - **Demand side**: The operating rate of MTO plants has rebounded. Some MTO plants are operating stably, while some are operating at partial loads. The overall downstream demand is stable [4]. - **Inventory side**: The port inventory accumulation cycle has ended, and the basis is relatively strong; the inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated within a narrow range. However, with the increase in imports and a slight decline in MTO operating rate, the port inventory continues to accumulate [4]. Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking - **Supply - Domestic**: As of November 13, the overall domestic methanol plant operating load is 76.54%, a 0.45 - percentage - point increase from last week and a 1.83 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. The non - integrated methanol average operating load is 68.74%, a 0.61 - percentage - point increase from last week [5]. - **Supply - International**: From November 1 to November 7, 2025, the international (excluding China) methanol output is 1,050,609 tons, an increase of 19,750 tons from last week, and the plant capacity utilization rate is 72.02%, a 1.35% increase [5]. - **Supply - Import**: As of November 12, 2025, the sample arrival volume of Chinese methanol is 451,800 tons [5]. - **Demand - MTO**: As of November 13, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is 83.65%, a 0.68 - percentage - point increase from last week. The national olefin plant operating rate is 90.24%, and the olefin industry operating rate continues to decline [5]. - **Demand - Traditional**: The capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and formaldehyde are 5.33% (a 1.11% month - on - month decrease), 67.13%, and 41.42% respectively. The overall capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde has decreased compared to last week [5]. - **Demand - Direct sales**: The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region is 88,800 tons, a 271.55% increase from the previous statistical date [5]. - **Inventory - Enterprises**: The inventory of production enterprises is 369,300 tons, a decrease of 17,200 tons from the previous period. The order backlog of sample enterprises is 245,400 tons, a 10.99% increase from the previous period [5]. - **Inventory - Ports**: As of November 12, 2025, the total port inventory is 1,543,600 tons, an increase of 56,500 tons from the previous period [5]. - **Valuation**: The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia is around 390 yuan/ton, and in northern Shaanxi is 322 yuan/ton. The MTO loss has narrowed, and the basis has remained stable [5]. - **Spot prices**: The price in Taicang is 2040 yuan/ton (- 60), and in the northern line is 1980 yuan/ton (- 10) [8].