Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The US corn is expected to have a high yield, but the yield per unit may continue to be revised downwards. The December contract of US corn has strong support at 420 cents per bushel. The selling pressure in the Northeast market has weakened, but the supply of corn in North China is relatively low, causing the corn spot price to rise. In the short term, corn will continue to fluctuate at a high level, and the rebound space of contracts 01 and 05 is limited. The spread between contracts 01 and 05 has narrowed. According to the seasonal pattern, the rebound space of the spot price in November is limited. [4] - The operating rate of starch factories has increased, downstream提货 is good, and starch inventory has decreased, but it remains at a historically high level for the same period. As the spot price of corn is relatively strong, the spot price of starch is also rising. However, the profit of starch factories in North China has declined, and the operating rate of starch enterprises will continue to increase. With the large - scale listing of new corn, there is still room for the spot price of starch to fall. It is expected that the December contract of corn starch will fluctuate at a high level following corn. [4] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Corn Situation**: The US corn is expected to have its yield per unit revised down, but the yield is high. It oscillates at around 430 cents per bushel this week, with strong support at 420 cents per bushel for the December contract. Although the tariff for importing US corn into China has been adjusted, there is still no profit in importing US corn. The focus of the market is on farmers' selling rhythm, and there may still be selling pressure on Northeast corn in November. In the short term, the supply of Northeast corn is increasing, and downstream demand for replenishment is driving up the price. The supply of North China corn has decreased, and the corn spot price is oscillating strongly. It is expected that the purchase price at the northern ports will be supported at around 2120 yuan per ton. Contract 01 of corn futures will oscillate at a high level, with limited short - term rebound space. [4] - **Starch Situation**: The operating rate of starch factories has increased, downstream提货 is good, and inventory has decreased but remains high. The spot price of starch is rising with the relatively strong corn price. However, the profit of starch factories in North China has declined, and the operating rate will continue to increase. With the large - scale listing of new corn, the spot price of starch may fall. It is expected that contract 01 of corn starch will follow corn and oscillate at a high level. [4] - **Trading Strategies** - For single - sided trading, consider buying the December contract of US corn below 420 cents per bushel. For contract 05 of corn, consider long - term buying below 2220 yuan per ton. [5] - For arbitrage, consider buying contract 01 of corn and selling contract 01 of starch, and short the spread when the price is high. [5] - For options, consider a cumulative purchase strategy for contract 05 of corn at low prices. [5] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **International Market - US Corn**: The October report has not been released yet. It is expected that the yield per unit of US corn will continue to be revised down, but the US corn is in a bumper harvest. The price is oscillating at the bottom, and the December contract has support at 420 cents per bushel. Although China has adjusted tariffs on US agricultural products, there is still no profit in importing US corn. As of November 13, the import profit of Brazilian corn at Guangdong Port is 164 yuan per ton. As of November 6, the weekly export inspection volume of US corn is 1.42 million tons, with a cumulative export volume of 13.73 million tons. The export volume to China this week is 0 tons, with a cumulative export volume of 0 tons. In September, the import volume of corn is 60,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to September is 930,000 tons, compared with 12.83 million tons in the same period last year. As of September 23, the non - commercial net short position of US corn has increased, and the ethanol production has increased. [8][10][11][12][17] - **Domestic Market - Corn Consumption and Inventory** - Feed enterprises: As of November 12, the average corn inventory of 47 large - scale feed mills is 25.61 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.73 days, and a year - on - year decrease of 12.11%. [21] - Deep - processing enterprises: From November 7 to November 12, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.3865 million tons of corn, a week - on - week increase of 46,000 tons. As of November 12, the corn inventory of 96 deep - processing enterprises is 273,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.15%. It is expected that the inventory will increase next week. [22] - Port Inventory: As of November 7, the corn inventory at the four northern ports is 1.071 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 50,000 tons, and the shipping volume of the four ports is 582,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 134,000 tons. In Guangdong Port, the domestic corn inventory is 454,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 29,000 tons; the foreign - trade inventory is 412,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 95,000 tons; the imported sorghum is 417,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 60,000 tons; the imported barley is 706,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 29,000 tons; the total grain inventory is 1.989 million tons, an increase of 35,000 tons. [25] - Corn Selling Progress: The selling progress of corn in the main producing areas across the country is faster than last year. The overall national selling progress (including all 13 provinces) is 24%, a week - on - week increase of 2% and a year - on - year increase of 1%. The selling progress of 7 provinces (Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Hebei, Shandong, and Henan) is 21%, a week - on - week increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 2%. [26] - **Starch Situation**: From November 7 to November 13, the national corn processing volume is 631,900 tons, and the starch production is 328,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 37,000 tons. The operating rate is 63.48%, a week - on - week increase of 0.72%. The spot price of corn in North China has risen, driving up the spot price of starch. The by - product price is stable, and the enterprise profit is stable. The profit per ton of corn in Heilongjiang is 33 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 13 yuan, and the profit in Shandong is 36 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 23 yuan. Downstream提货 volume has increased, the operating rate has risen, and starch inventory has decreased. As of November 12, the corn starch inventory is 1.133 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.44%, and a year - on - year increase of 27.59%. It is expected that the starch inventory will increase next week. [30] - **Substitute - Wheat**: The factory - delivered price of wheat in North China is basically 2,490 yuan per ton, and the price is relatively strong. The price difference between wheat and corn has narrowed. The price of corn in North China and Northeast China is strong, the price difference between North China and Northeast corn has widened, and the price difference between North China corn and contract 01 of corn has increased. [36] - **Livestock and Poultry Breeding**: From November 7 to November 13, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs is - 64 yuan per head, a week - on - week decrease of 29 yuan; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding is - 121 yuan per head, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan. The breeding profit of white - feather broilers is - 0.47 yuan per chicken, compared with - 0.31 yuan per chicken last week. The breeding cost of laying hens is 3.44 yuan per catty, and the breeding profit is - 0.43 yuan per catty, compared with - 0.52 yuan per catty last week. [41][47] - **Deep - processing of Corn Starch - Downstream Consumption**: This week, the operating rate of F55 high - fructose corn syrup is 40.81%, a week - on - week increase of 0.14%; the operating rate of maltose syrup is 43.68%, a week - on - week increase of 0.59%. The operating rate of corrugated paper is 66.7%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.2%; the operating rate of boxboard paper is 70.83%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.64%. [50] Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking No specific additional data tracking content is provided other than what has been summarized above.

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Date: November 14, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Zhang Mengchao [5] - Contact: zhangmengchao_qh@chinastock.com.cn [5] Group 2: Market Review - Futures Market: The futures market decreased with increased positions, closing at 2055 (-52/-2.47%) [2] - Spot Market: Various regions had different spot prices, with production areas like Inner Mongolia南线 at 1960 yuan/ton and consumption areas like Lunan at 2100 yuan/ton [2] Group 3: Important Information - Weekly Production: China's methanol production this week (20251107 - 1113) was 1,976,025 tons, a decrease of 12,880 tons from last week, with a capacity utilization rate of 87.08%, a 0.65% week - on - week decline [3] Group 4: Logic Analysis - Supply: Coal - to - methanol profit was around 320 yuan/ton, domestic supply was continuously abundant, and coal prices rebounded [4] - Import: US dollar prices fell rapidly, import parity widened, and Iranian production returned to normal [4] - Demand: MTO device operating rate rebounded, and some MTO devices had different operating loads [4] - Inventory: Port inventory accumulation cycle ended, basis was strong, and inland enterprise inventory fluctuated slightly [4] - Overall Trend: With high inventory, methanol was expected to continue its downward trend, although there were some minor disturbances [4] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Hold short positions [5] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell call options [6]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Daily Report on November 14, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Energy and Chemical Research Report [2] - Report Focus: Urea Market in the Commodity Sector [1][2] Group 2: Market Review - Futures Market: Urea futures fluctuated and closed at 1652 (0/0%) [3] - Spot Market: Factory prices were weakly stable with general trading. Prices varied by region, e.g., Henan at 1560 - 1570 yuan/ton, Shandong small - sized at 1560 - 1600 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Important Information - Urea Daily Output: On November 14, it was 20.33 tons, an increase of 0.58 tons from the previous workday and 1.86 tons from the same period last year [4] - Urea Operating Rate: On November 14, it was 84.08%, a 2.38% increase from 81.70% in the same period last year [4] Group 4: Logical Analysis - Market Sentiment: The impact of the new export quota news faded, and market sentiment cooled. Mainstream spot factory prices fell with weak trading [5] - Regional Analysis: Shandong expected falling prices due to weak demand; Henan expected to follow the downward trend; the delivery area and Northeast expected stable prices [5] - Supply and Demand: Supply increased as maintenance units returned. Demand was weak as the fourth - batch quota was issued, and domestic demand entered a "vacuum period" [5] - Price Forecast: With a loose supply - demand situation, urea prices are expected to continue to decline [5] Group 5: Trading Strategy - Unilateral Strategy: Short positions are recommended [6] - Arbitrage Strategy: Hold off on arbitrage operations [6] Group 6: Related Charts - Charts cover various aspects such as urea daily output, operating rate, production, enterprise inventory, and related downstream product data from 2022 - 2025 [10][14]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment has cooled down after the impact of the new export quota news faded. The ex - factory prices of urea in mainstream areas are falling, and the trading volume is weak. The supply has recovered, and the ex - factory prices are expected to continue the downward trend [5]. - The domestic supply is loose, and the overall demand is showing a downward trend. The autumn fertilizer season in North China has ended, and the downstream grass - roots orders are scarce. The domestic demand is still limited in the short term, and the spot market sentiment remains sluggish [5]. - The fourth batch of export quotas is expected to be around 600,000 tons. The international market will have a greater impact on the domestic market, but the domestic autumn fertilizer is fully over, and the overall domestic demand is about to enter a "vacuum period" [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Transaction Strategy - For unilateral trading, go short at high levels; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for over - the - counter trading, stay on the sidelines [5]. 2. Core Data Changes Supply - In the 45th week of 2025 (20251106 - 1112), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea in China was 87.53%, a week - on - week increase of 1.87%; the capacity utilization rate of gas - based urea was 72.76%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.29% [6]. - In the 45th week of 2025 (20251106 - 1112), the capacity utilization rate of urea in Shandong was 87.38%, a week - on - week increase of 0.81% [6]. Demand - In the 46th week of 2025 (20251107 - 1113), the weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 57.48%, an increase of 4.28 percentage points from the previous week [6]. - In the 46th week of 2025 (20251107 - 1113), the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 30.32%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.72 percentage points [6]. - As of November 14, 2025, the urea demand of sample compound fertilizer production enterprises in Linyi, Shandong was 1,300 tons, an increase of 280 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 27.45% [6]. - From November 7 to November 14, 2025, the arrival volume of urea in the Northeast was 106,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons from the previous week [6]. - As of November 12, 2025, the pre - order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 7.71 days, an increase of 0.42 days from the previous period [6]. Inventory - On November 12, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.4836 million tons, a decrease of 94,500 tons from the previous week [6]. - The sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 82,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.8% [6]. Valuation - The price of Jincheng anthracite lump coal is firm, and the price of Yulin pulverized coal has declined slightly. The fixed - bed production of urea has a loss of 110 yuan/ton, the water - coal slurry production has a loss of 70 yuan/ton, and the entrained - flow bed production has a profit of 168 yuan/ton. The futures are fluctuating, the basis is - 100 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread is - 67 yuan/ton [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, and non - ferrous metals. It assesses the current market situation, influencing factors, and offers corresponding trading strategies for each sector. For example, in the financial derivatives market, stock index futures may face tests and show volatile trends, while bond futures are affected by financial data. In the agricultural products market, different products have different supply - demand situations and price trends. In the black metals and non - ferrous metals markets, prices are influenced by factors such as raw material costs, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic conditions [17][26][60]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - Market situation: On Thursday, the market rose strongly and reached a new high. The Shanghai Composite Index hit a ten - year high, and the total market value of the two markets reached a new high. However, overnight US stocks fell sharply, and the index will face another test and may show a volatile trend [19][20][21]. - Trading strategy: Adopt high - selling and low - buying for single - side trading; conduct IM\IC long 2512 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage; use bullish spread options when the price is low [21]. Bond Futures - Market situation: On Thursday, bond futures closed down across the board. The central bank's open - market net injection of short - term liquidity made the market capital more relaxed. The release of October financial data showed that credit expansion slowed down, but the probability of monetary policy intensification was not high [22][23][25]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading; hold short positions on the 30Y - 7Y term spread (TL - 3T) and try to go long on the T contract's current - quarter to next - quarter inter - period spread [25]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market situation: The CBOT soybean index rose. The trade relationship is still favorable, but the domestic soybean meal crushing profit is in a significant loss, and the supply has great uncertainty. The rapeseed meal market changes little and is expected to fluctuate [27][28]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading and arbitrage; use the strategy of selling a wide straddle for options [28][29]. Sugar - Market situation: The international sugar price fluctuated, and the domestic sugar price was slightly stronger. The global main producing areas are increasing production, but the expected sugar surplus has been significantly reduced. The domestic sugar mills are gradually starting production, and the supply pressure is increasing, but the import tightening and high production costs support the price [30][32][33]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, the international sugar price fluctuates, and the domestic market is expected to fluctuate within a range; adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options [33]. Oilseeds and Oils - Market situation: The prices of CBOT soybean oil and BMD palm oil changed. The Malaysian palm oil inventory will gradually decrease slightly, the Indonesian palm oil inventory is low, the domestic palm oil inventory is accumulating, the soybean oil has no prominent core contradiction, and the domestic rapeseed oil is expected to continue to reduce inventory [34][37]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, the short - term oil lacks bullish drivers, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct high - selling and low - buying; adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options [37][38]. Corn/Corn Starch - Market situation: The CBOT corn futures rose. The domestic corn inventory decreased, the feed enterprise inventory increased, the processing volume and starch production increased, and the starch inventory decreased slightly. The Northeast and North China corn prices rose [39][40][41]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, the December CBOT corn fluctuates at the bottom, and short - term long positions can be taken on pullbacks; wait and see for the January contract, and wait for pullbacks for the May and July contracts; adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options [41]. Live Pigs - Market situation: The live pig price rebounded slightly, the piglet price rose, and the sow price remained stable. The short - term slaughter pressure improved, but the overall inventory was still high [42][43]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, lightly establish short positions; adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage; use the strategy of selling a wide straddle for options [43]. Peanuts - Market situation: The average price of peanuts increased, the oil mill's purchase price was under pressure, and the inventory of peanut oil and peanuts increased. The new peanuts are on the market, the import volume has decreased significantly, and the price of peanut meal is stable [44][45]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, the January peanut fluctuates at the bottom, and long positions can be established on pullbacks for the May peanut; adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage; sell the pk601 - P - 7600 option [45][46]. Eggs - Market situation: The average price of eggs in the main producing areas decreased slightly, and that in the main selling areas remained stable. The number of laying hens decreased slightly, the number of culled hens decreased, the egg sales volume decreased, and the inventory decreased [47][48][49]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options [49]. Apples - Market situation: The apple cold - storage inventory ratio was lower than last year, the import volume decreased, and the export volume increased slightly. The apple price was basically stable, and the quality was poor this year [52][53]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, consider going long on pullbacks; adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options [53][54]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - Market situation: The ICE US cotton futures fell. The Xinjiang cotton picking is nearing completion, the new cotton will be on the market in large quantities, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season [56][57]. - Trading strategy: It is expected that the US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton will fluctuate in the short term; adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options [58]. Black Metals Steel - Market situation: The social financing scale increased year - on - year, but the growth rate decreased. The supply and inventory of the five major steel products decreased, and the apparent consumption decreased. The raw material cost is under pressure, and the steel price fluctuates within a range [60][61]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, the steel price fluctuates within a range; for arbitrage, go long on the spread between hot - rolled and rebar; adopt a wait - and - see approach for options [62]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market situation: The coking coal auction had a high non - trading rate, and the steel mill was in a loss state. The fourth - round price increase of coke was partially implemented. The short - term driving force is not obvious, and the market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [63][64]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, wait and see in the short term and consider going long on pullbacks in the medium term; conduct a 1/5 reverse spread for coking coal; adopt a wait - and - see approach for options [65]. Iron Ore - Market situation: The iron ore price rebounded slightly at night. The supply is at a high level in the fourth quarter, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to be weak [66]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a bearish approach for single - side trading; adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options [67]. Ferroalloys - Market situation: The spot price of ferrosilicon was slightly weak, and the supply was high while the demand was expected to decline. The manganese ore spot was slightly strong, and the manganese silicon spot was slightly weak. The cost has support, and the previous short positions can be reduced [68]. - Trading strategy: Reduce the previous short positions on pullbacks for single - side trading; adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [69]. Non - Ferrous Metals Precious Metals - Market situation: London gold and silver fell, and Shanghai gold and silver rose. The US government ended the shutdown, and Fed officials' hawkish remarks dampened the market sentiment. The precious metals market had a short - term profit - taking, but it is expected to remain volatile at a high level [70][71][72]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, hold long positions in Shanghai gold and silver cautiously; adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage; continue to hold the collar call option strategy [73]. Copper - Market situation: The Shanghai copper futures rose slightly, and the LME copper fell. The US government ended the shutdown, but Fed officials' hawkish remarks pressured the copper price. The supply decreased, and the demand was supported by the power grid's centralized bidding. The copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [74][75]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading and consider a long - term long - position strategy; adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options [77]. Alumina - Market situation: The alumina futures rose slightly, and the spot price was stable. The supply exceeded demand, but the downstream electrolytic aluminum plant was stocking up. There is a continuous expectation of production cuts, but the actual production cuts have not occurred, and there is medium - term pressure [78][80]. - Trading strategy: Be vigilant against the selling pressure caused by the enlarged basis after the price rebound; adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options [82]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Market situation: The Shanghai aluminum futures rose, and the spot price increased. The Fed officials' hawkish remarks affected the market sentiment. The overseas supply - demand situation is tight, and the domestic consumption is resilient [83][84]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, the price trend is strong, and profit - taking can be considered at 22100 - 22500 yuan; adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options [84]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market situation: The cast aluminum alloy futures and spot prices rose. The US government ended the shutdown, and Fed officials' remarks were hawkish. The cost has support, but the demand is affected by the high price. The alloy price follows the upward trend of aluminum [86][87]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, the alloy price is strong following the aluminum price; for arbitrage, go long on AD and short on AL; adopt a wait - and - see approach for options [88]. Zinc - Market situation: The LME zinc and Shanghai zinc futures fell. The domestic inventory decreased, the processing fee decreased, and there is an expectation of production cuts. The export window is open, but the upward space is limited [89][91]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, the price fluctuates within a range; for arbitrage, hold the SHFE long and LME short position; adopt a wait - and - see approach for options [92]. Lead - Market situation: The LME lead and Shanghai lead futures fell. The supply is recovering, the demand is weakening, and the domestic inventory may accumulate [93]. - Trading strategy: Hold the short - profit position and be vigilant against the impact of funds on the price; adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [95]. Nickel - Market situation: The LME nickel price fell, and the inventory decreased. The refined nickel supply - demand is loose, the price of high - nickel iron and nickel sulfate is weak, and the market is pessimistic [96]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, sell on rebounds; adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [97]. Stainless Steel - Market situation: The supply and demand are weak, and the raw material is under pressure. No specific trading strategy was provided in the text.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core Views - The market conditions of L and PP plastics fluctuate daily, with prices showing various trends such as increases, decreases, and narrow - range movements. The supply and demand situation, along with factors like production capacity utilization, inventory, and external events, influence these price changes. [1][4] - Different factors, including economic indicators (e.g., PMI, GDP - related indices), industry - specific data (e.g., production ratios, import/export volumes), and geopolitical events, have both positive and negative impacts on the plastics market. [2][5] - The trading strategies for L and PP plastics vary daily, including suggestions like holding long or short positions, setting stop - loss points, and deciding on whether to engage in arbitrage or option trading. [2][5] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Conditions - **L Plastic**: The L2601 contract price fluctuates, and the LLDPE market price shows different trends such as continuous weakening,涨跌互现, and partial increases or decreases. The trading atmosphere is often affected by factors like futures trends, with downstream procurement being cautious. [1][4] - **PP Plastic**: The PP2601 contract price also fluctuates. The PP market may be weak, narrow - moving, or show small increases or decreases. The relationship between futures and the spot market affects the price and trading volume, and downstream demand is generally cautious. [1][4] Important Information - **Industry Conferences and Policies**: Various industry - related conferences are held, summarizing achievements and looking forward to future plans. Policies are also introduced to promote the development of the petrochemical and chemical industries, such as the "Petrochemical and Chemical Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)". [1][50] - **Company Achievements**: Some companies achieve significant results, like PetroChina Huabei Petrochemical Company reaching a high production ratio of polypropylene special materials, and Guangxi Petrochemical's ethylene plant starting up successfully. [1][25] - **International and Geopolitical Events**: There are international events such as the potential military action of the US against Venezuela and the impact of US tariff policies on global enterprises. [59][62] Logical Analysis - **Supply - related Factors**: The production capacity utilization rates of PE and PP change over time, with some periods of increase and others of decrease. The net import volumes of polyethylene and polypropylene also show different trends, affecting the market. [2][55] - **Economic Indicators**: Economic indicators such as the PMI of different countries, the global economic policy uncertainty index, and various industry - specific indices have impacts on the plastics market, either positively or negatively. [2][23] Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: Suggestions include holding long or short positions for L and PP main 01 contracts, and setting appropriate stop - loss points according to market conditions. [2][5] - **Arbitrage**: In most cases, it is recommended to wait and see, but there are also some specific suggestions for certain spreads. [2][5] - **Options**: Generally, it is recommended to wait and see, with a few exceptions where specific option contracts are given trading suggestions. [2][5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - The apple's fundamental situation is strong. With the recent increase in spot prices, it is advisable to consider buying on dips. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [6][9]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Market Information - **Spot Price**: The Fuji apple price index was 106.38, with a slight increase of 0.02. The 6 - fruit average wholesale price was 7.02, down 0.01. Different grades and regions of apple prices remained mostly stable [2]. - **Futures Price**: AP01 rose 297 to 9207, AP05 rose 201 to 9442, and AP10 rose 63 to 8408. The spreads between different contracts also changed significantly [2]. - **Basis**: Data on the basis of different contracts was presented, but some values were not available [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views - **Transaction Logic**: This year, apple production declined, the high - quality fruit rate was poor, and preservation was more difficult. Market expectations for cold - storage inventory data are likely to be low. As of November 6, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 51.68%, a year - on - year decrease of 10.62 percentage points, and the inventory was 682.74 million tons, 17.04% lower than the same period last year [6]. - **Transaction Strategy**: Unilateral trading suggests buying on dips due to the strong apple fundamentals and rising spot prices. For arbitrage and options, a wait - and - see approach is recommended [9]. - **Other Information**: As of November 13, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 55.87%, 7.52 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and the inventory was 735.77 million tons, 12.13% lower year - on - year. In September 2025, the import of fresh apples was 0.97 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.10%. The export was about 7.08 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.50% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.32%. The profit of storage merchants in Qixia for the 2024 - 2025 production season decreased by 0.1 yuan/jin compared to last week [8]. Third Part: Relevant Attachments - The report includes multiple charts such as the price of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bag 80, the price of Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bag 70, AP contract basis, spreads between different AP contracts, apple arrival volume in some markets, 6 - fruit prices, national cold - storage apple inventory, and national cold - storage apple outbound volume [11][12][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of new cotton is increasing significantly this year, but the expected increase may be lower than previously thought. The demand is entering a relatively off - season after the peak season, and the previous negative factors have been mostly reflected in the market. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton futures will likely fluctuate with limited upside and downside potential. The upcoming Sino - US trade negotiations and the expiration of the Sino - US tariff agreement in November may have a significant impact on the market [6]. - The US cotton is expected to move in a sideways pattern, and Zhengzhou cotton is also predicted to show a volatile trend. For trading strategies, it is advisable to wait and see for arbitrage and options [7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts decreased by 25, 30, and 35 respectively. The trading volume of CF01, CF05, and CF09 decreased by 109,232, 48,335, and 1,748 hands respectively. The open interest of CF01 decreased by 1,984, while that of CF05 increased by 3,646 and CF09 increased by 352. The CY01 contract remained unchanged, and CY05 and CY09 had no trading volume [2]. - **Spot Market**: The CCIndex3128B price was 14,819 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton. The Cot A price was 75.40 cents/pound. The prices of some other products such as polyester staple fiber, viscose staple fiber, etc. had different changes [2]. - **Spread**: In cotton inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 month spread was - 5 (up 5), the 5 - 9 month spread was - 175 (up 5), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 180 (down 10). In cotton - yarn inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 month spread was 19,790 (unchanged), the 5 - 9 month spread was 0 (unchanged), and the 9 - 1 month spread was - 19,790 (unchanged). The CY01 - CF01 spread was 6,300 (up 25). The 1% tariff - based internal - external cotton spread was 1,627 (up 37) [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News**: On November 13, 2025, the out - of - Xinjiang cotton road transport price index was 0.1827 yuan/ton·km, remaining unchanged. On November 12, the Xinjiang machine - picked cotton purchase index was 6.23 yuan/kg (unchanged), and the hand - picked cotton purchase index was 6.87 yuan/kg (down 0.05 yuan/kg). As of November 10, 2025, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was about 98.5%, with the northern region at 100%, the southern region at 97.5%, and the eastern region at 98.8% [4][5]. - **Trading Logic**: With new cotton hitting the market in large quantities in November, there may be selling and hedging pressure. Although this year's cotton production is high, the expected increase may be lower than previously thought. The demand is in a relatively off - season. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate, and Sino - US trade policies need to be closely monitored [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, both US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are expected to move sideways. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [7][8][9]. - **Cotton - Yarn Industry News**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures showed a bearish trend last night, with high hedging pressure. The pure - cotton yarn market had average trading, mainly for rigid demand. The downstream orders were decreasing, and most manufacturers lacked confidence in the future. The current operation rate remained stable, and the inventory increased slightly. The all - cotton grey fabric market had a differentiated trading situation, with limited orders and difficulty in price increase [9]. Third Part: Options - **Option Data**: On November 13, 2025, for the CF601C13400.CZC option, the closing price was 168.00 (up 2.4%), the implied volatility (IV) was 7.7%. For the CF601P13000.CZC option, the closing price was 21.00 (down 16.0%), the IV was 10.5%. For the CF601P12400.CZC option, the closing price was 6.00 (down 33.3%), the IV was 15.4% [11]. - **Option Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [9][13]. Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the internal - external cotton price spread under 1% tariff, cotton basis for January, May, and September, CY - CF spreads, and cotton inter - period spreads [15][18][22][24].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Internationally, the production increase in major global sugar - producing areas is still being realized. Datagro has significantly lowered the global sugar surplus forecast, mainly due to the reduced sugar production expectations in Brazil and India. The international sugar price shows signs of bottom - grinding and is expected to fluctuate in the short term. - Domestically, in the short term, sugar mills are gradually starting production, increasing supply and sales pressure, with a weak fundamental situation. However, considering the tightened imports of syrup and premixed powder and relatively high previous pricing costs, domestic sugar production costs are high, providing some support for the futures price. Therefore, the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. In the long - term, due to the currently low foreign sugar prices, the cost of future priced sugar will be low, which is expected to have a certain negative impact on the sugar price, but the impact space is relatively limited [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Data Analysis - **Futures Disk**: SR09 closed at 5,421, up 16 (0.30%); SR01 closed at 5,512, up 34 (0.62%); SR05 closed at 5,433, up 22 (0.41%). The trading volume and open interest of each contract also showed different changes [6]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of sugar in different regions such as Liuzhou, Kunming, Wuhan, etc. are provided. The prices in Liuzhou, Wuhan, Nanning, Bayuquan, Rizhao, and Xi'an remained unchanged, while the price in Kunming decreased by 5 yuan/ton. The basis in different regions ranges from 118 to 608 yuan/ton [6]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of SR05 - SR01 is - 79, down 12; the spread of SR09 - SR05 is - 12, down 6; the spread of SR09 - SR01 is - 91, down 18 [6]. - **Import Profit**: For Brazilian imports, the quota - in price is 3994 yuan/ton, and the quota - out price is 5073 yuan/ton. For Thai imports, the quota - in price is 4050 yuan/ton, and the quota - out price is 5145 yuan/ton [6]. Second Part: Market Judgment - **Important Information** - As of November 13, 2025, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the number of sugar mills in Yunnan that have started production has reached 4, an increase of 1 compared to the same period last year, with a planned daily production capacity of 13,200 tons, an increase of 9,700 tons compared to the same period last year. Another sugar mill is expected to start production next week. - The French Ministry of Agriculture has lowered the forecast of sugar beet production in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season to 33.7 million tons, a decrease of 500,000 tons from the previous forecast, but still 3.5% higher than the 2024/25 season and 8.7% higher than the average of the past five years. - On November 13, 2025, the Indonesian Minister of Agriculture stated that the country plans to achieve self - sufficiency in white sugar by 2026, supported by an investment of 22.2 billion US dollars in downstream plantations, animal husbandry, and horticulture [8][9][10]. - **Logic Analysis** - International: Global major sugar - producing areas are still experiencing increased production. Datagro has significantly lowered the global sugar surplus forecast, mainly due to reduced sugar production expectations in Brazil and India. The international sugar price shows signs of bottom - grinding and is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) estimates that the total sugar production in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season will be 34.35 million tons, and the net sugar production will be 30.95 million tons after deducting the 3.4 million tons used for ethanol production. The Indian central government has allowed the export of 1.5 million tons of sugar in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season. - Domestic: In the short term, sugar mills are gradually starting production, increasing supply and sales pressure, with a weak fundamental situation. However, considering the tightened imports of syrup and premixed powder and relatively high previous pricing costs, domestic sugar production costs are high, providing some support for the futures price. In the long - term, due to the currently low foreign sugar prices, the cost of future priced sugar will be low, which is expected to have a certain negative impact on the sugar price, but the impact space is relatively limited [11]. - **Trading Strategy** - **Single - side**: The international sugar price is in a fluctuating adjustment market. The domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to operate within a range, selling high and buying low. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see. - **Options**: Wait and see [12][15] Third Part: Relevant Attachments The report provides multiple charts, including the monthly inventory and cumulative sales - to - production ratio of sugar in Guangxi and Yunnan, the spot price of Liuzhou sugar, the spot price difference between Liuzhou and Kunming sugar, the basis of different contract months, and the price difference between different contract months [13][17][21][27][28][30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure, the current laying - hen inventory remains at a high level. The short - term de - capacity speed is expected to be relatively gentle. - Considering that the spot average price is still around 2.8 - 2.9 yuan per jin, and the December main contract has given a certain premium, the upward space is expected to be relatively limited. - The recent decline in spot prices indicates that the short - term egg prices are likely to be weak, but the downward space is relatively limited [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Prices**: JD01 closed at 3265, down 57 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3530, down 13; JD09 closed at 3878, up 8. - **Spread**: 01 - 05 spread was - 265, down 44; 05 - 09 spread was - 348, down 21; 09 - 01 spread was 613, up 65. - **Ratio**: 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.49, down 0.03; 01 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.06, down 0.02. Other ratios also had corresponding changes [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the main production areas was 2.95 yuan per jin, down 0.02 yuan from the previous day; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.21 yuan per jin, unchanged. Most regions' egg prices remained stable, with only minor fluctuations in some areas. - **Culled Chicken Prices**: The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was 3.97 yuan per jin, down 0.03 yuan from the previous day [2][4][6]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - **Cost and Price**: The average price of culled chickens was 3.97 yuan per jin, down 0.03; the average price of chicken chicks was 3.21 yuan per chick, up 0.04. The average price of corn was 2260 yuan per ton, up 5; the average price of soybean meal was 3072 yuan per ton, unchanged. - **Profit**: The profit per chicken was 2.51 yuan, down 1.00 yuan from the previous day [2]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - **Inventory**: In October, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.359 billion, 10 million less than the previous month, 5.5% higher year - on - year, and lower than expected. The estimated laying - hen inventories from November 2025 to February 2026 are 1.359 billion, 1.355 billion, 1.346 billion, and 1.333 billion respectively. - **Sales and Production**: From November 06, the weekly egg sales in representative sales areas were 7300 tons, down 4% from the previous week. The weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.25 yuan per jin, down 0.05 yuan from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.02 days, 0.02 days less than the previous week; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.06 days, 0.04 days less than the previous week [5][6]. 3.5 Trading Logic The increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated supply pressure, but the high laying - hen inventory will lead to a gentle de - capacity speed. The limited upward space of the contract price and the recent decline in spot prices suggest that short - term egg prices are likely to be weak with limited downward space [7]. 3.6 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [8].