1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the national refinery operating rate increased slightly, with the main refineries' operating rate rising and the independent refineries' operating rate falling. Gasoline production decreased, while diesel production showed a mixed trend. The diesel - to - gasoline ratio increased. Market sentiment was cautious, with low purchasing enthusiasm for gasoline and improved sales of diesel due to low - price support. Both gasoline and diesel commercial inventories increased. Next week, overall production is expected to decline slightly, demand will be weak, and there will be a supply - demand imbalance, with possible price differentiation and increased inventory pressure [6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis 3.1.1 Market Overview - Supply: The national refinery operating rate was 70.8% this week, up 0.2% from the previous week. Main refineries' operating rate increased slightly as Guangzhou Petrochemical's atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit resumed operation after maintenance. Independent refineries' operating rate decreased slightly due to the new coking unit maintenance at Jiangsu Xinhai Petrochemical. Gasoline production from both main and independent refineries decreased, while diesel production from main refineries increased and that from independent refineries decreased. The diesel - to - gasoline ratio rose by 0.02 to 1.48 [6]. - Demand: Market sentiment was cautious. The purchasing enthusiasm of downstream gasoline vehicle orders was low, while diesel orders from ships and vehicles increased due to low - price support, and the sales - to - production ratio increased. Neither gasoline nor diesel achieved a sales - production balance [6]. - Inventory: Commercial inventories of both gasoline and diesel increased. Gasoline inventory was 10.74 million tons, up 280,000 tons (+2.7%) from the previous week; diesel inventory was 12.39 million tons, up 250,000 tons (+1.8%). Independent refinery inventories increased due to high - level operation after the issuance of crude oil quotas and low market purchasing enthusiasm. Social gasoline inventory increased as some resources were stored, while diesel inventory decreased as some areas still faced a shortage of main refinery resources [6]. 3.1.2 Future Outlook - Supply: Next week, the operating rate of main refineries is expected to remain stable, while independent refineries may reduce their load slightly due to increased sales pressure. Overall, gasoline and diesel production is expected to decline slightly [7]. - Demand: Demand will be weak. The inventory - building sentiment in the gasoline market will cool down, but prices will be relatively stable due to cost support. Diesel demand will continue to weaken due to the significant cooling and snowfall in the north, and the market's bearish expectation will increase. Price promotions will have limited impact on sales [7]. - Inventory: Shandong independent refineries' gasoline inventory may increase slightly as some ship orders are concentrated for delivery, but terminal vehicle orders are weak. Diesel inventory pressure will increase as production is expected to increase while demand decreases seasonally [7]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis and Data Tracking 3.2.1 Price - Gasoline market price: On December 11, 2025, the national average gasoline price was 7,381 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan from the previous day, up 39 yuan from the previous week, up 39 yuan from the previous month, and down 631 yuan from the previous year. Prices in different regions showed different trends [14]. - Diesel market price: On December 11, 2025, the national average diesel price was 6,416 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan from the previous day, down 100 yuan from the previous week, down 164 yuan from the previous month, and down 649 yuan from the previous year. Prices in different regions also showed different trends [14]. 3.2.2 Profit - Main refineries' refining profit: This cycle, the main refineries' refining profit was 645.47 yuan/ton, up 8.82% from the previous week. The calculated crude oil cost was 3,580 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan from the previous week. The average price of main refined products decreased by 0.2%, but the cost decrease was greater, resulting in a profit increase [19]. - Shandong independent refineries' refining profit: In the week of December 11, 2025, the average comprehensive profit of Shandong independent refineries processing imported crude oil was 442.61 yuan/ton, down 2.66% from the previous week and up 0.84% from the previous year. The average crude oil cost was 2,997 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan, and the comprehensive income was 4,982 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The cost decrease was less than the income decrease, so the refining profit decreased [19]. 3.2.3 Supply - Operating rate: This week, the national refinery operating rate was 70.8%, up 0.2% from the previous week. The main refineries' operating rate increased by 0.5 percentage points to 75.1%, and the independent refineries' operating rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 64.3%. Shandong independent refineries' average weekly operating rate was 55.9%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous week [35]. - Maintenance plan: As of December 12, 2025, the total maintenance capacity was 72.4 million tons/year. Guangzhou Petrochemical's maintenance was expected to end, and Jiangsu Xinhai Petrochemical had a new coking unit under maintenance [39]. - Production: This week, gasoline production from both main and independent refineries decreased, while diesel production from main refineries increased and that from independent refineries decreased. The diesel - to - gasoline ratio increased by 0.02 to 1.48. Main refineries produced 1.92 million tons of gasoline, down 20,000 tons (-1.1%) from the previous week, and 2.18 million tons of diesel, up 10,000 tons (+0.3%). Shandong independent refineries' gasoline and diesel production both decreased, with gasoline production at 480,000 tons, down 2.4%, and diesel production at 1.06 million tons, up 0.3% [41][45]. 3.2.4 Sales - This week, the average weekly sales - to - production ratio of Shandong refineries for both gasoline and diesel increased but did not reach the sales - production balance. The gasoline sales - to - production ratio increased by 2 percentage points to 98%, and the diesel sales - to - production ratio increased slightly to 95%. Market sentiment was cautious, with low purchasing enthusiasm for gasoline from downstream vehicle orders, while diesel orders from ships and vehicles increased due to low - price support, and the sales - to - production ratio increased [53]. 3.2.5 Demand - Gasoline demand: The gasoline consumption index, congestion index in 15 Chinese cities, flight scheduling volume, and service industry PMI are used to measure gasoline demand, but specific analysis is not provided in the report [63][64][65][67]. - Diesel demand: The diesel consumption index, manufacturing PMI, cement and asphalt出库量, steel consumption, and express delivery volume are used to measure diesel demand, but specific analysis is not provided in the report [74]. 3.2.6 Inventory - This week, commercial inventories of both gasoline and diesel increased. Gasoline inventory was 10.74 million tons, up 280,000 tons (+2.7%) from the previous week; diesel inventory was 12.39 million tons, up 250,000 tons (+1.8%). Independent refinery inventories increased due to high - level operation after the issuance of crude oil quotas and low market purchasing enthusiasm. Social gasoline inventory increased as some resources were stored, while diesel inventory decreased as some areas still faced a shortage of main refinery resources. Next week, Shandong independent refineries' gasoline inventory is expected to increase slightly, and diesel inventory is expected to increase due to expected production increase and seasonal demand decline [76][80].

股指期货周报：海外波动影响情绪 研究员：孙锋 期货从业证号：F0211891 投资咨询证号：Z0000567 第二部分 周度数据追踪 5 目录 第一部分 周度核心要点分析及策略推荐 2 GALAXY FUTURES 1 一周要闻 GALAXY FUTURES 2 中共中央政治局召开会议指出，明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽 松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经济治理效能。 中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。会议指出，明年经济工作在政策取向上，要坚持稳中求进、提质 增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提升宏观经济治理效能。要继续实施更 加积极的财政政策。继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。 美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至3.5%至3.75%之间，符合预期。美联储点阵图预测显示在 2026年和2027年各有一次25个基点的降息。美联储主席鲍威尔表示，美联储一直在朝着中性利率方向调整，目前 已处于中性利率区间的上端，尚未就一月事宜做出决定。 中国11月CPI同比上涨0.7 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It assesses the current market situation, influencing factors, and offers trading strategies for each sector, taking into account macro - economic data, policy changes, and supply - demand dynamics. Summary by Category Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: Overseas fluctuations affect sentiment. The market is expected to face pressure this week. Trading strategies include high - selling and low - buying in a single - side approach, waiting for basis expansion for IM/IC futures - spot arbitrage, and using a double - buy option strategy [20][21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: After important meetings, the market fluctuates. The policy rate cut is still expected next year. It is recommended to hold a small number of TL long positions on a single - side basis and wait and see for arbitrage [23]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: International soybeans are under pressure. It is recommended to take a short - position approach on a single - side basis, narrow the MRM spread for arbitrage, and use a short - straddle option strategy [27][28]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are strengthening, while domestic prices are oscillating. The single - side strategy is bottom - oscillating and slightly stronger internationally and low - level oscillating domestically. The arbitrage strategy is to go long on January and short on May [32][33]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The overall trend is oscillating weakly. Short - term, it is recommended to use a high - selling and low - buying approach on a single - side basis and wait and see for arbitrage [36][37]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The spot price is falling, and the futures price is oscillating at a high level. The single - side strategy includes short - term long - buying on dips for the 03 contract, short - selling on rallies for the 03 contract, and long - buying on long - term declines for the 05 and 07 contracts. The arbitrage strategy is a 3 - 7 reverse spread [42]. - **Hogs**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is slightly falling. It is recommended to take a short - position approach on a single - side basis and use a short - straddle option strategy [45]. - **Peanuts**: Large - scale oil mills start purchasing, and the futures price is oscillating at a high level. The single - side strategy is to short - sell lightly on rallies for the 03 contract, and the option strategy is to sell the PK603 - C - 8200 option [46][48]. - **Eggs**: Demand is average, and the price is stable with a slight decline. It is recommended to go long on far - month contracts on dips on a single - side basis and wait and see for arbitrage [51]. - **Apples**: The inventory is low, and the fundamentals are strong. The single - side strategy is high - level oscillating, and the arbitrage strategy is to go long on January and short on October [54][56]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: New cotton sales are good, and the price is oscillating strongly. It is recommended to go long on dips on a single - side basis and wait and see for arbitrage [59]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The export management scope is expanded, and the price is oscillating. The single - side strategy is oscillating, and the arbitrage strategy is to short the coil - coal ratio and the coil - screw spread [62][63]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They are oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to wait and see or go long lightly on dips on a single - side basis and wait and see for arbitrage [64][65]. - **Iron Ore**: It should be treated with a bearish mindset. The single - side strategy is bearish, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage [67][68]. - **Ferroalloys**: The cost is supported, but the demand is suppressed. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom on a single - side basis, and the option strategy is to sell an out - of - the - money straddle option combination [69][70]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Macroeconomic uncertainty increases, and price fluctuations are amplified. The single - side strategy is to hold long positions for Shanghai gold and silver carefully, and the option strategy is to buy out - of - the - money call options [72][75]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The market fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to go long on dips for both, choose to go long on platinum and short on palladium for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [76][77]. - **Copper**: Concerns about the AI bubble resurface, and the price drops rapidly. The single - side strategy is to go long after a full correction, and the arbitrage strategy is to pay attention to the calendar spread arbitrage [79][82]. - **Alumina**: Warehouse receipts are gradually digested, and short - sellers leave the market. The single - side strategy is a rebound driven by short - sellers leaving, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [83][87]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: With concentrated macro - data release this week, it is recommended to be cautious about chasing up. The single - side strategy is oscillating after a correction, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [88][89]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: There is uncertainty in macro - expectations, and the price corrects with the sector. The single - side strategy is oscillating after a correction, the arbitrage strategy is to narrow the AD - AL spread during the correction, and it is recommended to wait and see for options [90]. - **Zinc**: Attention should be paid to the export volume. The single - side strategy is to hold existing long positions and go long on dips, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [92][93]. - **Lead**: Attention should be paid to inventory changes. The single - side strategy is range - bound oscillating [94][97]. - **Nickel**: As a short - allocation variety, it continues to decline. The single - side strategy is oscillating downwards, and the option strategy is to sell out - of - the - money call options [98][100]. - **Stainless Steel**: It oscillates at a low level following the nickel price. The single - side strategy is low - level oscillating, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage [101][102]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It may rebound in the short - term. The single - side strategy is to go long in the short - term, and the arbitrage strategy is to go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon [104]. - **Polysilicon**: Pay attention to the previous high - point pressure in the short - term and buy on corrections in the future. The single - side strategy is to buy on corrections, and the option strategy is to use a double - buy option strategy [105]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The inventory reduction speed remains stable, and the price is at a high level. The single - side strategy is to buy after a full correction in the medium - term, and the option strategy is to sell out - of - the - money call options on rebounds [106][108]. - **Tin**: Concerns about the AI bubble resurface, and the price is under pressure to fall. The single - side strategy is high - level oscillating, and it is recommended to wait and see for options [109][110]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: MSC issues a price - increase notice for January, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term. The single - side strategy is to take partial profit and hold partial positions for the EC2602 contract, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage [111][113]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Excess pressure and geopolitical disturbances are present, and the price is expected to oscillate downwards. The single - side strategy is bearish, and the arbitrage strategy is that domestic gasoline is neutral, diesel is bearish, and the crude oil calendar spread is bearish [114][116]. - **Asphalt**: Supply and demand are both weak, and there are still raw - material risks. The single - side strategy is weakly oscillating, and the option strategy is to sell out - of - the - money call options for the BU2602 contract [118][120]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur variety is weakly stable, and low - sulfur supply is frequently disturbed. The single - side strategy is weakly oscillating, and the arbitrage strategy is that both high - sulfur and low - sulfur crack spreads are bearish [121][123]. - **Natural Gas**: The LNG price is in a downward trend, and HH has a deep correction. The single - side strategy is to buy the HH2602 contract [124][127]. - **PX & PTA**: PX production remains at a high level, and PTA inventory accumulation is expected. The single - side strategy is weakly oscillating, and the arbitrage strategy is to go long on PX603 and short on PX605, and go long on TA605 and short on TA601 [129][132]. - **BZ & EB**: Pure benzene supply and demand are loose, and the styrene basis weakens. The single - side strategy is weakly oscillating and short - selling on rallies, and the arbitrage strategy is to short pure benzene and long styrene [134][137]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: There is pressure to reduce inventory. The single - side strategy is weakly oscillating, and the option strategy is to sell out - of - the - money call options [138][140]. - **Short - Fiber**: Supply and demand are weak. The single - side strategy is price - weakly oscillating, and the option strategy is to sell out - of - the - money call options [142][143]. - **Bottle Chip**: Supply and demand are relatively loose. The single - side strategy is price - weakly oscillating, and the option strategy is to sell out - of - the - money call options [146]. - **Propylene**: Production increases, and inventory is at a high level. The single - side strategy is short - selling on rallies, and the option strategy is to sell call options [148][149]. - **Plastic PP**: They bottom out and rebound. The single - side strategy is to try long positions for the L 2605 contract and wait and see for the PP 2605 contract [150][151]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price is weakly oscillating. The single - side strategy is a weak trend, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [153][154]. - **PVC**: It rebounds after reaching the bottom. The single - side strategy is a rebound [155][157]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply increases and demand decreases, and the price weakens. The single - side strategy is a weak trend, and the arbitrage strategy is to pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling soda ash and long - buying glass for the 05 contract [159][163]. - **Glass**: The price oscillates weakly. The single - side strategy is a weak trend, and the arbitrage strategy is to pay attention to the strategy of short - selling soda ash and long - buying glass for the 05 contract and reverse the 1 - 5 spread [164][165]. - **Methanol**: It oscillates widely. The single - side strategy is oscillating, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [166]. - **Urea**: Low - price transactions are okay. The single - side strategy is strongly oscillating in the short - term and weakly oscillating in the medium - term [168]. - **Pulp**: The price strengthens, and demand is mainly for rigid needs. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [172][174]. - **Logs**: The fundamentals are weakening. The single - side strategy is to pay attention to going long on the 03 contract near the previous low, and the arbitrage strategy is to gradually take profit on the 1 - 3 reverse spread [175][177]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Supply pressure persists, and the transmission of high pulp prices is less than expected. The single - side strategy is short - selling, and the option strategy is to sell the OP2602 - C - 4100 option [178][179]. - **Natural Rubber**: RU warehouse receipts accumulate, and NR is strong. The single - side strategy is to wait and see for the RU 05 contract and hold long positions for the NR 02 contract. The arbitrage strategy is to reduce positions and wait and see [180][183]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: Warehouse receipts increase significantly, and long positions should be held. The single - side strategy is to hold long positions for the BR 02 contract, and the arbitrage strategy is to hold the BR2602 - NR2602 spread and set a stop - loss [184][186].

宏观不确定性提升 金银波动放大 研究员：王露晨 CFA 期货从业证号：F03110758 投资咨询资格证号：Z0021675 目录 第一章 综合分析及交易策略 2 | | | 第三章 贵金属基本面数据追踪 13 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 了无差别的普跌。 期货盘面：周内，黄金总体持稳并小幅上破，白银连续刷新历史高点但在周五晚间回落。其中，伦敦金震荡走强，一度触及4353美元关口， 最终收于4299美元/盎司，周涨幅2.41%。伦敦银将新高刷至64.66美元，尽管周五因获利了结有所回调，但全周仍涨6.21% 。国内沪金主力 合约收报970.66元/克，周涨幅1%，沪银主力合约创新高至15192元/千克，周涨幅8.8% 。 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 宏观不确定性提升 金银波动放大 ◼【综合分析】 美国宏观面：上周美国宏观面主要围绕美联储12月议息会议展开，市场经历了从预期消化到落 ...

铜周报：交割风险提高，铜价再创新高 研究员： 王伟 期货从业证号：F03143400 投资咨询资格证号：Z0022141 第三章 铜基本面分析及周度数据跟踪 5 GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析及操作策略 n 宏观面 目录 第一章 综合分析及交易策略 2 第二章 内外盘价格走势 4 美联储12月如期降息并进行技术性扩表，同时鲍威尔发表鸽派言论，美元下跌，对有色金属价格形成支撑。明年5月鲍威尔任期结束，哈塞特成为热门人选，后续市场预期 2026年美国货币政策仍保持宽松。国内12月经济会议定调2026年财政、货币政策相对宽松，宏观情绪进一步回暖。 n 铜矿 n 废铜 n 精铜 11月SMM中国电解铜产量环比增加1.15万吨，环比增幅百分之1.05，同比增幅百分之9.75。一到11月累计，产量同比增加128.94万吨，增幅为百分之11.76。Smm预计12 月电解铜环比上升6.57万吨。 n 消费 从终端来看，国内需求边际走弱，房地产继续拖累市场，光伏、空调排产出现大幅下滑，后期市场主要支撑来源于两网订单、汽车、储能电池，下游对高价接受度不足，价格 突破9万/吨以后，下游消费明显减弱，临近年底，未点价的下 ...

橡胶板块2025年12月第2周报 潘盛杰 研究所 化工研究团队负责人 投资咨询从业证号：Z0014607 橡胶：云南天胶全面停割，合胶仓单增仓明显 ◼【综合分析】 现货价格：本周天然橡胶和顺丁橡胶市场表现各异。天然橡胶人民币市场均价走弱，上海全乳胶均价14750元/吨，跌幅0.64%；山东市场 STR20#混合胶均价14367元/吨，跌幅1.21%。相比之下，国内顺丁橡胶市场价格偏强，华北地区BR9000市场价格为10150元/吨，较上周 上涨150元/吨；华北地区BR9000均价约10070元/吨，较上周上涨40元/吨。 需求方面：山东轮胎企业全钢胎开工负荷为63.58%，较上周走高0.59个百分点，较去年同期走高6.36个百分点。胶价先跌后涨，工厂逢低 刚需补货，但整体采购情绪一般。 库存方面：青岛地区天然橡胶总库存增长，截至12月5日，总库存48.48万吨，较上期增加0.98万吨，涨幅2.06%。高顺顺丁橡胶库存窄幅走 高，涨幅1.87%。周内监测样本内装置茂名石化延续检修，振华新材料负荷提升缓慢，裕龙石化装置重启但暂未出料，周内工厂库存整体走 高为主。 ◼【策略推荐】 1.单边：RU主力05合约观望， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Nickel is recommended as a short position and is expected to continue its downward trend. The trading strategies include testing the previous low for single - side trading and selling out - of - the - money call options at the resistance level. Stainless steel follows the nickel price, with prices in a low - level oscillation due to weak supply and demand and weak cost support [1][5][9] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Spread Tracking and Inventory Nickel - Global visible nickel inventory is at a high level, reaching 314,000 tons, with an increase of 2,038 tons this week. LME inventory is 253,000 tons, a decrease of 264 tons this week, and SMM's six - region social inventory is 59,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,122 tons [11] Stainless Steel - Social inventory of stainless steel is higher than the same period in previous years [15] Chapter 2: Fundamental Analysis Nickel - **Supply**: SMM statistics show that refined nickel production from January to November increased by 19% year - on - year to 361,300 tons. In November, pure nickel production decreased by 10,000 tons month - on - month to 25,800 tons, and it is expected to slightly rebound to 27,400 tons in December. From January to October 2025, net imports of domestic refined nickel were 47,200 tons, compared with net exports of 23,200 tons in the same period last year. In October, there was a net export, with Russian nickel imports only about 1,000 tons. From January to October 2025, the domestic refined nickel supply was 383,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 54% [23] - **Demand**: From January to November, pure nickel consumption increased by 3% year - on - year to 268,000 tons. Electroplating consumption declined seasonally, while alloy consumption increased slightly, and overall consumption slowed down. SMM's survey shows that the PMI of nickel downstream industries in November remained below 50. In December, the production schedules of stainless steel and ternary materials decreased significantly month - on - month, electroplating was still in the off - season, and alloy consumption alone was not enough to support demand, so pure nickel consumption continued to decline month - on - month [26] Stainless Steel - **Raw Materials** - **Nickel Ore**: Nickel ore prices remained stable with a slight decline. In November 2025, Indonesia imported about 1.65 million tons of nickel ore from the Philippines, a month - on - month decrease of about 1.25 million tons (a decrease of 43.08%), and a year - on - year increase of about 1.15 million tons (an increase of 229.99%). In December, the domestic trade premium in Indonesia remained flat month - on - month, and the domestic trade benchmark price of nickel ore in Indonesia continued to decline slightly, with a slight decrease in CIF transaction prices [28] - **NPI**: NPI was in a loss state, and there was a game between upstream and downstream. High - nickel iron prices continued to fall, and some production lines switched to producing high - grade nickel matte, resulting in a significant increase in high - grade nickel matte production in November [30][75] - **Chromium Series**: Chromium ore prices rebounded this week. Tsingshan Group's long - term procurement price for high - carbon ferrochromium in December 2025 was 8,395 yuan/50 - base tons (cash - inclusive ex - works price), a month - on - month decrease of 100 yuan, and the Tianjin Port receiving price was 150 yuan lower per 50 - base tons. The spot price was 7,950 yuan/50 - base tons [42] - **Cold - Rolled Cost**: Cold - rolled costs were inverted. On December 12th, the estimated cold - rolled cash cost was around 12,950 yuan/ton, and the integrated cost reached 12,450 yuan/ton [44][46] - **Supply**: According to Steel Union's forecast, the combined stainless - steel crude steel output of China and India from January to November was 41.353 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5%. In December, the production schedules of China and India decreased significantly month - on - month, mainly in the 200 - series and 400 - series, while the 300 - series decreased by less than 20,000 tons month - on - month [54] - **Demand**: The ship - building industry had the highest growth rate and provided support. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of ship - building plate output from January to October reached 29%, while the growth rates in other terminal fields were not optimistic [56] New Energy Vehicles - **Domestic Market**: In November, the domestic sales of new energy vehicles were 1.522 million, a month - on - month increase of 4.3% and a year - on - year increase of 6.5%, with a penetration rate of 53.2%. From January to November, the domestic sales of new energy vehicles were 12.466 million, a year - on - year increase of 23.2%. According to the Passenger Car Association, from December 1st to 7th, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles nationwide were 185,000, a year - on - year decrease of 17% and a month - on - month decrease of 10%, with a retail penetration rate of 62.2%. The production of power cells followed the trend of new energy vehicle sales, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 42.4% to 111.42 GWh from January to November, and a projected month - on - month decrease of 2% in December [62] - **Overseas Market**: According to CleanTechnica statistics, from January to October 2025, the cumulative global new energy vehicle sales increased by 21.7% year - on - year to 16.39 million, compared with a 25.5% year - on - year increase in the same period last year. In the same period, European new energy vehicle sales increased by 29.4% year - on - year to 3.092 million, and US new energy vehicle sales increased by 6.8% year - on - year to 1.323 million. The US cancelled the IRA new energy vehicle subsidy on October 1st, leading to a small peak in sales in advance. Most European countries still provided subsidies for new energy vehicles and had carbon - emission requirements, which stimulated sales growth this year. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to November 2025, China's total new energy vehicle exports were 2.283 million, a year - on - year increase of 100% [68] Nickel Sulfate Market - **Production**: From January to November, China's nickel sulfate production decreased by 6.9% year - on - year to 319,000 tons, and the production of ternary precursors decreased by 16% year - on - year to 648,000 tons, while the production of ternary cathode materials increased by 17% year - on - year to 737,000 tons. After December, entering the off - season, the demand for nickel sulfate may slow down [70] - **Raw Materials**: From January to November, Indonesia's MHP production increased by 45% year - on - year to 4.05 million tons, and the production of high - grade nickel matte decreased by 25% year - on - year to 1.89 million tons. The price of sulfur increased significantly this year, raising the cost of hydrometallurgy and the cost of MHP, while the price of MHP remained firm. The good demand for nickel sulfate boosted the price of intermediate products and stimulated the recovery of production. Due to the continuous decline in NPI prices, some production lines switched to producing high - grade nickel matte, resulting in a significant increase in high - grade nickel matte production in November [75] Pure Nickel - The significant reduction in pure nickel production narrowed the domestic surplus [76]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The sentiment in the lithium market is cooling, and lithium prices are under medium - term pressure. In December, the supply - demand situation is marginally loose, and the destocking is expected to slow down. In January, demand may decline month - on - month due to the weakening of the power sector, while supply will increase both at home and abroad, and the market may shift to inventory accumulation. [6] Summary According to the Directory 1. Demand Analysis 1.1 New Energy Vehicles - **Domestic Market - Off - season Approaching**: In November, the domestic sales of new energy vehicles reached 1522,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 4.3% and a year - on - year increase of 6.5%, with a penetration rate of 53.2%. From January to November, the domestic sales were 12,466,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 23.2%. In the off - season, vehicle sales in January are the lowest of the year, and the implementation of new annual long - term agreements may affect the production scheduling of some enterprises. [13] - **Overseas Market - Possible Slowdown in Electrification**: In 2025 from January to October, global new energy vehicle sales increased by 21.7% year - on - year to 16.39 million units; European sales increased by 29.4% year - on - year to 3.092 million units; US sales increased by 6.8% year - on - year to 1.323 million units. The US canceled IRA subsidies on October 1st, while most European countries still have subsidies and carbon emission requirements. China's new energy vehicle exports from January to November 2025 totaled 2.283 million units, a year - on - year increase of 100%. [19] 1.2 Energy Storage Market - The domestic energy storage orders are booming, mainly due to the "rush - to - export" demand. From January to November, the cumulative production of Chinese energy storage cells was 466.9 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 53%. However, production capacity bottlenecks limit the growth of production scheduling, and the production scheduling in December decreased by 0.2% month - on - month. [24] 1.3 December's Downstream Production Scheduling Weakens - In November, the production of batteries, cells, positive electrodes, and electrolytes showed different trends of increase or decrease. In December, the production scheduling of most products decreased month - on - month. In January, affected by the weakening of the power sector, the off - season will continue, and a continued month - on - month negative growth is expected. [30] 2. Supply Analysis 2.1 Weekly Production of Lithium Carbonate Increases Slightly - From January to November, the domestic lithium carbonate production was 871,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 44%. The production scheduling in December is 98,000 tons. If the actual production of Jiaxiaowo exceeds 1,000 tons, it will accelerate inventory accumulation. This week, the production of lithium carbonate from mica decreased, while that from spodumene continued to increase. [34] 2.2 China's Monthly Lithium Carbonate Production by Raw Material - The production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as salt lakes, spodumene, mica, and recycling shows different trends throughout the year. [36] 2.3 December's Supply of Lithium Carbonate Increases Marginally - From January to October 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports were 197,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%. In November, Chile's lithium carbonate exports to China decreased month - on - month and year - on - year. [45] 3. Supply - Demand Balance and Inventory 3.1 Estimation of Lithium Carbonate Supply - Demand Balance No specific data - based balance estimation content is provided other than a graph. 3.2 The Destocking Speed of Lithium Carbonate Decreases Slightly Month - on - Month - This week, the social inventory decreased by 2,133 tons, including a decrease of 1,606 tons in smelter inventory and 957 tons in downstream inventory, while other inventories increased by 430 tons. The production increased by 59 tons. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts continued to rise in December after being concentratedly cancelled at the end of November. [52] Market Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - **Industrial Level**: The sales of new energy passenger vehicles are weakening, the energy storage market is booming, the production scheduling of cathode factories remains high, and some export demands are slightly affected. In December, the supply - demand is marginally loose, and destocking is expected to slow down. In January, demand may decline month - on - month, and supply will increase both at home and abroad, with a possible shift to inventory accumulation. [6] - **Futures Level**: There is a lack of new bullish drivers recently. The stock price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has dropped significantly. After the lithium price reached near the previous high, it decreased with a reduction in positions, indicating capital outflows. In the future, pay attention to the effectiveness of the support near 91,000. - **Strategies**: Hold short positions; temporarily hold off on arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options. [6]

电解铝 ：年底资金流动扩大价格波动 短期谨慎追涨 研究员：陈婧 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询从业证号：Z0018401 铝策略展望 GALAXY FUTURES 1 宏观：（1）本周美联储议息会议如期宣布降息25基点，表态相对温和，且将买短债400亿美元，提振市场情绪。（2）12月关注国内重要会议对明年经济情况 的预期。 产业供应：近期无超预期变动，供给端刚性预期明显。全球海外方面，世纪铝业旗下冰岛电解铝厂维持事故停产状态，预计2026年年底复产；力勤印尼电解铝 项目开始投产，预计年底前投产8万余吨，明年10月满产50万吨；安哥拉及越南项目投产预期不变，印尼泰景项目一期基本达产。国内方面，新疆新投净增24 万吨的项目11月底开始投产，初步投产6万吨、年底前累计投产12万吨，剩余部分预计明年二季度继续投产。内蒙新投项目维持年底投产预期不变。 产业需求：铝棒相关需求韧性明显，加工费坚挺，交通运输、建筑地产等板块年底赶工对铝需求拉动显著，铝杆及铝箔需求亦有恢复，且前期出口利润增加后出 口订单较好，铝需求整体维持同比增加趋势。此外，目前市场对明后年储能快速增加带动的用铝需求存有期待。 库存：本周铝锭及铝 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The coal mine operating rate is stable, with the Erdos coal mine operating rate at 76% and the Yulin area at 46% as of December 12. Coal production has recovered, but demand has declined, leading to continuous drops in pit - mouth prices. Coal - to - methanol profit is around 380 - 460 yuan/ton, and the domestic methanol supply remains loose. The US dollar price has slightly increased, with most Iranian plants shut down due to gas restrictions. Non - Iranian production has increased, and the import forecast for January has been raised to around 1.4 million tons [4]. - The MTO device operating rate has recovered, but there are differences in the operating conditions of various plants. The port inventory accumulation cycle has ended, and the basis is strong. The inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated slightly. Overall, the international plant operating rate has declined, and the methanol market will continue to fluctuate [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Analysis**: The coal price is weakly falling, the coal - to - methanol profit is stable, the domestic supply is loose, and the inland MTO operating rate is stable. The methanol market is affected by factors such as international plant shutdowns, import disturbances, and Fed's interest - rate decisions, and will continue to oscillate [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, short - sell 01 contract and gradually build long positions in 05 contract at low prices; for arbitrage, focus on positive spreads; in the over - the - counter market, sell put options [4]. Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking - **Supply - Domestic**: As of December 11, the overall domestic methanol plant operating load was 76.64%, up 0.45 percentage points from last week and 1.50 percentage points from the same period last year. The non - integrated methanol average operating load was 68.87%, up 0.61 percentage points from last week [5]. - **Supply - International**: From November 29 to December 5, 2025, the international production was 931,455 tons, down 42,240 tons from last week, and the capacity utilization rate was 63.85%, down 2.90% from last week [5]. - **Supply - Import**: From December 4 to December 10, 2025, the Chinese methanol sample arrival volume was 247,800 tons, including 229,700 tons from foreign vessels and 18,100 tons from domestic vessels [5]. - **Demand - MTO**: As of December 11, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 77.54%, down 9.94 percentage points from last week. The national olefin device operating rate was 90.2%, and the MTO industry operating rate declined [5]. - **Demand - Traditional**: The dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate was 8.98%, up 13.96% week - on - week; the acetic acid capacity utilization rate was 73.89%; the formaldehyde operating rate was 41.49% [5]. - **Demand - Direct Sales**: The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region was 42,800 tons, down 41,700 tons from the previous statistical date, a week - on - week decrease of 49.35% [5]. - **Inventory - Enterprises**: The production enterprise inventory was 352,800 tons, down 8,700 tons from the previous period, and the sample enterprise order backlog was 207,500 tons, down 32,200 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 13.45% [5]. - **Inventory - Ports**: As of December 10, the total port inventory was 1.2344 million tons, down 115,000 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China decreased by 108,200 tons, and that in South China decreased by 6,800 tons [5]. - **Valuation**: The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia was around 460 yuan/ton, and in northern Shaanxi was 380 yuan/ton. The MTO loss narrowed, and the basis was stable [5]. - **Spot Prices**: The price in Taicang was 2,090 yuan/ton (+20), and the price in the north line was 1,950 yuan/ton (-40) [8].