Report Information - Report Title: Stock Index Futures Data Daily Report [1] - Report Date: November 17, 2025 [2] IM Futures Daily Quotes - The CSI 1000 index closed at 7,523.08, up 0.27%. The total trading volume of the four IM contracts was 197,327 lots, an increase of 4,748 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 355,153 lots, a decrease of 2,069 lots [4][5]. - The main contract of IM fell 0.26% to close at 7,394.4 points, with a discount of 128.68 points to the spot, an increase of 2.08 points from the previous day, and an annualized basis rate of -19.25% [4][5]. Basis and Premium Analysis - The spot price of CSI 1000 was 7,523.08. The current month contract (IM2511) had a closing price of 7,495.40, a discount of 27.68 points, a premium rate of -0.4%, and an annualized premium rate of -27.0% [4][10]. - The next month contract (IM2512) had a closing price of 7,394.40, a discount of 128.68 points, a premium rate of -1.8%, and an annualized premium rate of -19.2% [4][10]. Position Analysis - In the IM2511 contract, the top five members in terms of trading volume were CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 43,025 lots, an increase of 838 lots from the previous day [15]. - The top five members in terms of long positions were CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 27,938 lots, an increase of 555 lots from the previous day [15]. IF Futures Daily Quotes - The CSI 300 index closed at 4,598.05, down 0.65%. The total trading volume of the four IF contracts was 114,292 lots, an increase of 4,303 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 272,721 lots, an increase of 7,845 lots [20][21]. - The main contract of IF fell 0.89% to close at 4,581.4 points, with a discount of 16.65 points to the spot, an increase of 11.09 points from the previous day, and an annualized basis rate of -4.02% [20][21]. Basis and Premium Analysis - The spot price of CSI 300 was 4,598.05. The current month contract (IF2511) had a closing price of 4,595.80, a discount of 2.25 points, a premium rate of 0.0%, and an annualized premium rate of -3.6% [20][29]. - The next month contract (IF2512) had a closing price of 4,581.40, a discount of 16.65 points, a premium rate of -0.4%, and an annualized premium rate of -4.0% [20][29]. Position Analysis - In the IF2511 contract, the top five members in terms of trading volume were CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 11,581 lots, an increase of 1,705 lots from the previous day [33]. - The top five members in terms of long positions were CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 6,716 lots, an increase of 974 lots from the previous day [33]. IC Futures Daily Quotes - The CSI 500 index closed at 7,235.35, unchanged. The total trading volume of the four IC contracts was 116,917 lots, an increase of 305 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 245,834 lots, an increase of 816 lots [39][40]. - The main contract of IC fell 0.5% to close at 7,143.4 points, with a discount of 91.95 points to the spot, an increase of 6.11 points from the previous day, and an annualized basis rate of -14.24% [39][40]. Basis and Premium Analysis - The spot price of CSI 500 was 7,235.35. The current month contract (IC2511) had a closing price of 7,215.80, a discount of 19.55 points, a premium rate of -0.3%, and an annualized premium rate of -19.8% [39][47]. - The next month contract (IC2512) had a closing price of 7,143.40, a discount of 91.95 points, a premium rate of -1.3%, and an annualized premium rate of -14.2% [39][47]. Position Analysis - In the IC2511 contract, the top five members in terms of trading volume were CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 27,479 lots, an increase of 1,905 lots from the previous day [53]. - The top five members in terms of long positions were CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 20,098 lots, an increase of 663 lots from the previous day [53]. IH Futures Daily Quotes - The SSE 50 index closed at 3,012.07, down 0.87%. The total trading volume of the four IH contracts was 57,196 lots, an increase of 8,963 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 101,114 lots, an increase of 3,993 lots [59]. - The main contract of IH fell 1.12% to close at 3,009.2 points, with a discount of 2.87 points to the spot, an increase of 5.16 points from the previous day, and an annualized basis rate of -1.06% [59][60]. Basis and Premium Analysis - The spot price of SSE 50 was 3,012.07. The current month contract (IH2511) had a closing price of 3,014.00, a premium of 1.93 points, a premium rate of 0.1%, and an annualized premium rate of 4.7% [59][70]. - The next month contract (IH2512) had a closing price of 3,009.20, a discount of 2.87 points, a premium rate of -0.1%, and an annualized premium rate of -1.1% [59][70]. Position Analysis - In the IH2511 contract, the top five members in terms of trading volume were CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 11,045 lots, an increase of 1,777 lots from the previous day [74]. - The top five members in terms of long positions were CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 6,266 lots, an increase of 35 lots from the previous day [74].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the cotton market have few contradictions, and cotton prices are expected to oscillate in the short term. The supply side will see a large amount of new cotton on the market, with significant production increase in the new year but the increase may be less than expected. The demand side has average recent orders, but previous negative factors have been reflected in the market. Considering the optimistic results of recent Sino-US trade negotiations, short - term cotton prices are expected to be volatile [27][43]. Summary by Directory Part I: Domestic and International Market Analysis International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: There are few changes in fundamentals, and the US cotton price is expected to oscillate within a range. As of November 7, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 963,100 tons, accounting for 30.7% of the estimated annual US cotton production, 22% slower year - on - year. The inspection progress of upland cotton and Pima cotton is slower than the same period last year. The weekly deliverable ratio is 82.6%, and the quarterly deliverable ratio is 79.5%, 2 percentage points lower year - on - year. The quarterly deliverable ratio has increased slightly month - on - month. The US cotton listing inspection is in the peak period, but the Pima cotton progress is still slow. As of September 18, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton decreased by 54% week - on - week, and the weekly shipment volume increased by 14% week - on - week [8]. - **Pakistan**: As of October 15, 2025, the cumulative new cotton listing volume in the 2025/26 season reached 588,000 tons, a 22% year - on - year increase. Textile mills purchased 471,000 tons, and the unsold new cotton was 98,000 tons [8]. - **Brazil**: The 2025/26 production forecast data released by CONAB in November shows that the total cotton production in Brazil in the 2024/25 season is expected to be 4.077 million tons, remaining stable month - on - month. The planting area is stable at 2.0861 million hectares, and the yield per mu is stable at 130.3 kg. The total cotton production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 4.028 million tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons month - on - month. The planting area is slightly reduced to 2.1371 million hectares, and the yield per mu is stable at 125.7 kg [8]. - **India**: The Cotton Association of India released the first supply - demand balance sheet for the 2025/26 season. The production is predicted to be 30.5 million bales (170 kg per bale), a decrease of 740,000 bales compared to the 2024/25 season. The consumption is expected to be 30 million bales (a decrease of 1.4 million bales from the previous season). The export is predicted to be 1.7 million bales, and the import is predicted to be 4.5 million bales, indicating that India is expected to be a net importer in the 2025/26 season. The production in all producing areas is expected to decline, with the largest reduction in Haryana and Telangana, and increases in Punjab and Andhra Pradesh [8]. - **Global**: According to the latest September global cotton production and sales forecast by USDA, the global cotton production in September was 25.62 million tons, an increase of 230,000 tons month - on - month. China's total production increased by 218,000 tons to 7.076 million tons. The total consumption increased by 184,000 tons to 25.68 million tons, and the ending inventory decreased by 168,000 tons to 15.92 million tons [8]. Domestic Market Logic Analysis - **Supply Side**: The new cotton purchase in Xinjiang is coming to an end. As of November 10, 2025, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was about 98.5%. The new cotton production cost is basically fixed, and the new cotton price is expected to continue to oscillate within a range. On November 13, the machine - picked cotton purchase index in Xinjiang was 6.23 yuan/kg, and the hand - picked cotton purchase index was 6.87 yuan/kg, both unchanged from the previous day. As of November 6, the cumulative picked seed cotton converted to lint cotton nationwide was 7.082 million tons, an increase of 1.657 million tons compared to the average of the past four years [27]. - **Demand Side**: As of November 6, the cumulative sales of lint cotton were 1.22 million tons, at a high level in the same period over the years, an increase of 1.01 million tons compared to the average of the past four years. As of November 13, the operating load of spinning mills in the mainstream areas was 65.6%, an increase of 0.31% from the previous week. The yarn inventory of spinning mills in the main areas was 30.2 days, a weekly increase of 0.33% [27]. Option Strategy - Volatility Trend Judgment: The HV on the previous day was 3.9092, and the volatility decreased slightly compared to the previous day. - Option Strategy Recommendation: The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton on the previous day was 0.7094, and the volume PCR of the main contract was 0.8660. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased today. It is recommended to wait and see [41]. Futures Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: It is expected that the US cotton price will oscillate within a range in the future, and the Zhengzhou cotton price is also expected to oscillate. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [45]. Part II: Weekly Data Tracking - **Internal - External Price Difference**: The chart shows the internal - external cotton price difference and the 9 - 1 spread trend [48][49]. - **Mid - end Situation**: It includes the operating load of pure - cotton yarn mills, the load of all - cotton grey fabric mills, the yarn inventory days, and the grey fabric inventory days [52]. - **Cotton Inventory**: It includes the national cotton commercial inventory, the spinning mills' cotton industrial inventory, the reserve inventory, and the remaining amount of national reserves [54]. - **Spot - Futures Basis**: It includes the basis of cotton C32S spot - Zhengzhou cotton yarn active contract, the basis of cotton in January, May, and September, and the average basis trend of US seven - major market upland cotton [57].

Report Title - Sugar Weekly Report: Decline in Brazil's Sugar Production Ratio, Global Output Increase May Fall Short of Expectations [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Internationally, the global main producing areas are still realizing increased production, but Datagro has significantly lowered the global sugar surplus forecast, mainly reducing the sugar production expectations of Brazil and India. Brazil's final sugar production may fall short of previous expectations due to a significant decline in the sugar production ratio. The international sugar price shows signs of bottoming out and is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term. In the domestic market, the short - term sugar prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, while in the medium - to - long - term, there is still some downward pressure on sugar prices, but the space is relatively limited [3]. - For trading strategies, in the unilateral aspect, it is recommended to operate within a range considering the international and domestic sugar price trends; for arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Analysis**: Internationally, the decline in Brazil's sugar production ratio and the adjustment of global sugar production expectations affect the international sugar price trend. Domestically, the start of sugar mills' production, import policies, and cost factors influence the domestic sugar price trend. - **Trading Strategies**: - Unilateral: Due to the decline in Brazil's sugar production ratio and the bottoming - out signs of international sugar prices, international sugar prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, while domestic sugar prices are expected to fluctuate, so it is recommended to operate within a range [4]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [4]. - Options: Wait and see [4]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 1. International Supply - Demand Pattern Changes - **2025/26 Sugar Surplus Reduction**: Czarnikow raised the estimated surplus of the global sugar market in the 2025/26 season to 740,000 tons, while Datagro lowered its forecast of the global sugar supply surplus to 100,000 tons. Datagro also lowered the sugar production forecasts of Brazil and India, and major importers such as China and Indonesia increased their purchases at low prices [8][10]. 2. Brazil's Sugar Production Situation - **High - Level Production Forecast**: According to Conab data, Brazil's sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 45.02 million tons, slightly higher than that in August and the second - highest in recent years [11]. - **Significant Decline in the Bi - weekly Sugar Production Ratio in Central - Southern Brazil**: In the second half of October 2025, the sugar production ratio in central - southern Brazil decreased by 3 percentage points to 46.02%, while the ethanol production increased [13]. - **Year - on - Year Increase in Sugar Production in Central - Southern Brazil in This Season**: As of October 31, 2025, the cumulative sugar production in central - southern Brazil reached 38.085 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.63%, but the cumulative ethanol production decreased by 6.91% [18]. - **Significant Increase in Sugar Inventory and Exports**: As of the second half of October, the sugar inventory in central - southern Brazil was 12.1107 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.99%. Brazil exported about 4.205 million tons of sugar in October, a year - on - year increase of 12.8% [23]. 3. Sugar Production in Other Countries - **Slight Increase in Thailand's New Season**: The 2024/25 season's sugar production was 10.05 million tons, and the 2025/26 season is expected to see a slight increase, with an expected increase in exports of 1 million tons [27]. - **India's Sugar Production and Policy**: ISMA estimated that the total sugar production in the 2025/26 season would be 34.35 million tons, and the net production after excluding ethanol use would be 30.95 million tons. The Indian government approved the export of 1.5 million tons of sugar in the 2025/26 season, and the northern states raised the purchase price of sugarcane [35]. 4. Domestic Sugar Market Situation - **Sugar Mills Start Production**: Sugar mills in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Guangxi have started or are about to start production. The start - up time in Guangxi has been postponed, and the number of start - up mills is expected to be significantly lower than the same period last year [39]. - **High Import Profits**: The import profit situation of sugar from Brazil and Thailand shows that there are certain profit opportunities [40][41]. - **Decline in Import Volume**: In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, and the import volume of syrup and pre - mixed powder decreased. It is expected that the import volume in October will be similar to that of last year [48]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - The report provides a large amount of data on Brazil's sugar production, including cumulative sugar production, cumulative cane crushing volume, bi - weekly sugar production ratio, etc.; India's sugar production and export data; Thailand's sugar production and export data; and China's sugar production, import volume, and inventory data [14][17][23][39][48]

Report Title - Apple Weekly: New Phase Inbound Volume Announced, Apple Prices Stable with a Slight Increase [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This year, apple production has declined, the high - quality fruit rate is poor, and preservation is more difficult. Market expectations are that cold - storage inbound data will likely be lower. The peak cold - storage apple inventory this year is likely to be lower than last year, and the available inventory is expected to be low, so the apple fundamentals are strong. One can consider buying on dips for unilateral trading, while for arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [15] Summary by Directory Part 1: Logical Analysis and Trading Strategies 1. Spot Analysis - This week, the inbound work of new - season late - maturing Fuji apples is nearing completion, mainly concentrated in western Shandong Qixia and Shanxi Yuncheng. Outbound work has started, mainly for foreign - trade goods and some merchants replenishing the market. The sales area market is in the off - season, with a weak trading atmosphere. The increasing supply of citrus fruits is squeezing the apple sales space. - In the Shandong production area, the ground trading is ending, and the inbound work continues. The inbound of farmers' goods has significantly increased. The prices of different grades of late - maturing Fuji vary, with standard first - and second - grade goods being scarce. - In the Shaanxi production area, the late - maturing Fuji trading is ending, and the inbound work is ongoing but at a slower pace. The remaining supply quality has declined, and the trading price has slightly decreased. The purchasing enthusiasm of merchants is average [7] 2. Supply Analysis - As of November 13, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio is about 55.87%, 7.52 percentage points lower than the same period last year, with a storage volume of 735.77 million tons, 12.13% lower than last year. - In Shandong, the cold - storage capacity ratio is 55.47%, an increase of 6.52 percentage points this week. The inbound is mainly in western Qixia. The proportion of high - quality first - and second - grade goods is low, and the proportion of general and third - grade fruits is high. - In Shaanxi, the cold - storage capacity ratio is 54.63%, an increase of 2.07 percentage points this week. There is obvious goods flow between different production areas, and the inventory in Luochuan has increased significantly. - In Gansu, the cold - storage capacity ratio is 69.28%, a decrease of 2.10 percentage points this week. There is both inbound and outbound, and the number of cold - storage seeking merchants is large [11] 3. Demand Analysis - In the Guangdong Chalong market, the number of early - morning arrival vehicles has changed little. The prices of different varieties of apples vary, and the purchasing enthusiasm of second - and third - level wholesalers is average. The new - season late - maturing Fuji has slow sales, and there is pressure on daily digestion and inventory backlog. - On November 13, the average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits is 7.32 yuan per kilogram, slightly higher than last Friday, at a medium - high level in recent years. - For the 2025 - 2026 production season in the acquisition stage, the profit statistics of storage merchants for Qixia 80 first - and second - grade apples have been suspended [14] 4. Trading Strategies - Trading Logic: Apple production has declined this year, the high - quality fruit rate is poor, and cold - storage inventory is expected to be low. The apple fundamentals are strong. - Unilateral: Considering the strong apple fundamentals and the recent increase in spot prices, one can consider buying on dips. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [15] Part 2: Weekly Data Tracking 1. Apple Supply - Demand Situation - Data on apple export, planting area, consumption, and production are presented in the form of charts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [19] 2. Inventory and Shipment - Data on national and Shandong cold - storage apple inventory trends and national cold - storage apple outbound trends are presented in the form of charts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [22] 3. Spread and Basis - Data on different spread and basis (such as 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 10 spread, 1 - month basis, 5 - month basis, 10 - month basis) over the years are presented in the form of charts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The egg market shows weak performance based on normal supply - demand without festival support. Egg prices are expected to remain weak in the short - term, with limited upward and downward space. The trading strategy suggests a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options [5][19]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Logical Analysis and Trading Strategy 3.1.1 Spot Analysis This week, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.95 yuan/jin, up 0.02 yuan/jin from last Friday, and in the main selling areas was 3.21 yuan/jin, up 0.15 yuan/jin. Egg prices first rose and then fell. The price of old hens fluctuated narrowly, and it is expected to be stable to weak next week, with an average weekly price of about 4.10 yuan/jin [5]. 3.1.2 Supply Analysis The national main - producing area egg - laying hen culling volume from November 13th to the end of the week was 19.47 million, a 1.8% decrease from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens was 493 days, the same as the previous week. In October, the national in - production egg - laying hen inventory was 1.359 billion, a 0.01 - billion decrease from the previous month, a 5.5% year - on - year increase, and lower than expected. The egg - chick monthly hatching volume of sample enterprises in October was 39.2 million, with little month - on - month change and a 13% year - on - year decrease [12]. 3.1.3 Cost Analysis As of November 13th, the comprehensive feed cost was about 2503 yuan/ton, and the feed cost per jin of eggs was about 2.75 yuan/jin. The egg - laying hen breeding cost increased slightly this week. The average weekly profit per jin of eggs was - 0.15 yuan/jin, up 0.1 yuan/jin from the previous week; on November 6th, the expected profit of egg - laying hen breeding was - 6.1 yuan/feather, a 1.19 - yuan/jin decrease from the previous week [15]. 3.1.4 Demand Analysis The demand in the selling areas first increased and then decreased this week, with the sales volume increasing by 1.1% week - on - week. As of November 13th, the national representative selling - area egg sales volume was 7382 tons. The inventory in the production and trading links increased passively. The vegetable price index and pork price slightly rebounded [18]. 3.1.5 Trading Strategy The trading logic is that although the culling volume of culled chickens has increased recently, the in - production egg - laying hen inventory is still high, and the short - term production reduction will be gradual. The short - term egg price is expected to be weak with limited downward space. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options [19]. 3.2 Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking 3.2.1 Inventory The in - production egg - laying hen inventory data for different years from 2018 to 2025 are presented, and the data for October 2024 shows a slight decrease from the previous month [12][23]. 3.2.2 Culling Situation The weekly culling volume data of egg - laying hens from 2020 to 2025 are provided, and the culling volume from November 13th to the end of the week decreased by 1.8% compared with the previous week [12][24]. 3.2.3 Chick - rearing and Complementary Stocking The monthly chick - rearing complementary stocking volume data of sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 are given, and the data for October 2024 shows little month - on - month change and a 13% year - on - year decrease [12][25]. 3.2.4 Price Difference and Basis The basis data of January, May, and September contracts from 2018 to 2025, as well as the price difference data between different contracts, are presented [31][32][35].

股指期货周报：股指将再受考验 研究员：孙锋 期货从业证号：F0211891 投资咨询证号：Z0000567 目录 第一部分 周度核心要点分析及策略推荐 2 第二部分 周度数据追踪 5 周度核心要点及策略推荐 【综合分析】 【策略推荐】 GALAXY FUTURES 3 逻辑梳理：本周市场保持高位震荡，上证指数周五创下4034点十年新高后尾盘快速跳水。宽基指数高位震荡，仅上证50指 数出现周阳线，市场分化严重。指数的分化源自行业板块的表现，人工智能硬件——光模块、英伟达产业链、国产芯片等 纷纷跌幅居前，资金大举流出，这与美股科技龙头震荡，国产芯片龙头公布业绩后不涨反跌，日本存储公司季报远低预期 等有关。相反资金流向大消费板块，高低切换显示了避险需求。 后市展望：科技股在下周继续面临压力。中芯国际略超预期的季报并未能再动板块，反而受大市影响下跌；摩尔线程招股 使现有GPU的替代性加强，是否会有共振走强还有待观察；虽然美股科技龙头有止跌迹象，但周末华为的新技术将使投资 者对算力投资再度生疑。科技股震荡之下，股指难有集体表现，预计市场将再探支撑。 期货方面：本周基差先收敛再扩大，周三市场盘中调整见底、科技股反弹的情况 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The bond market is expected to oscillate in the short term. The overall weakness of macro - financial and economic indicators in October, the downward trend of the overseas labor market, and the central bank's attitude of protecting liquidity are all favorable to the bond market. However, the low probability of monetary policy intensification due to weak financial data, the "buy the dip" behavior in the stock market, and the potential impact of the pending new regulations on public bond fund redemption fees make the short - term unilateral trend of the bond market still tangled [5]. - For arbitrage, with a neutral - bullish view and the 30Y - 7Y term spread at a relatively high historical level in the past three years, it is recommended to continue to hold an appropriate amount of (TL - 3T) positions. As the delivery month approaches and the valuation of the current - quarter contract becomes reasonable, short - sellers accelerating the roll - over may drive the spread to strengthen. It is advisable to try to go long on the current - quarter to next - quarter spread of the T contract when the opportunity arises [5]. Summary by Directory First Part: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendation Macroeconomic Indicators - In October, major domestic macro - economic indicators generally declined on a high - base effect, with contractions in both production and demand [7]. - The continuous weakening of some domestic demand indicators recently implies that the multiplier effect of previous policies is not obvious, and the self - repair momentum of the domestic economy is not strong [10]. Credit Expansion - Credit expansion continued to slow down in October. New RMB loans were 220 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of about 280 billion yuan. Social financing scale was 815 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 597 billion yuan. However, corporate direct financing performed well, with corporate bond financing and non - financial corporate stock financing increasing by 189.4 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [14][17]. M1 and Deposits - M2 growth rate in October was 8.2% year - on - year, a 0.2 - percentage - point decline from the previous month. M1 growth rate was 6.2% year - on - year, a 1.0 - percentage - point decline from the previous month, showing an initial inflection point. After the quarter, household and non - financial corporate deposits declined seasonally, while non - bank financial institution deposits increased significantly [25]. - In October, new fiscal deposits were 72 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12.48 billion yuan. The slowdown in fiscal expenditure may be one of the reasons for the decline in M1 growth rate. In the future, the seasonal increase in government expenditure at the end of the year is expected to support the cash flow of enterprises and households [26]. Market Liquidity - This week, the market liquidity tightened as expected due to the large net payment scale of government bonds. Next week, the net financing of government bonds is still relatively high, and the tax payment period from the 17th to the 19th is expected to bring some short - term disturbances to the liquidity. However, considering the central bank's attitude of protecting liquidity, the actual pressure on market funds is expected to be controllable [37]. Central Bank's Monetary Policy Report - The central bank's third - quarter monetary policy implementation report continues the loose tone, being more positive than the second - quarter report. However, it continues to downplay the importance of aggregate financial indicators. There are also concerns about the marginal decline in the efficiency of monetary policy [42]. Treasury Bond Futures Valuation and Roll - over - The valuation of Treasury bond futures contracts is still differentiated. The IRR of the next - quarter contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL is generally higher than that of the current - quarter contracts and the market funds price [48]. - The roll - over progress of the main contracts this week accelerated but was still slower than the historical average. The slow roll - over may be the reason why the inter - delivery spread did not generally strengthen this week. It is recommended to try to go long on the current - quarter to next - quarter spread of the T contract when the opportunity arises [54]. Second Part: Relevant Data Tracking - This part tracks various data related to Treasury bond futures, including trading volume, open interest, inter - contract spreads, net positions, Treasury bond spot yields, and related international financial data such as the US 10 - year Treasury bond yield, Sino - US 10 - year Treasury bond spread, US dollar index, and US dollar - RMB offshore exchange rate [58][61][65].

【粕类周报】粕类偏强运行 市场成交改善 银河农产品 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号：F3045719 投资咨询证号：Z0015458 | | | 第三章 基本面数据变化 8 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 本周美豆盘面继续呈现偏强运行态势，主要因市场对后续美豆出口仍有一定乐观表现，同时在报告发布前期，市场对美豆单产下调有一定考虑。本 次报告整体与市场评估结果接近，库存处于相对偏低水平。但由于当前美豆盘面价格对于利好因素体现比较充分，因此报告发布后盘面呈现明显回 落。预计美豆后续可能仍将表现出一定压力。南美市场需求表现比较良好，旧作方面整体价格支撑比较明显，近期巴西压榨利润表现仍然处于低位， 后续可能对压榨仍有一定影响，旧作价格仍有一定支撑。新作产量预计仍将维持高位，但后续受天气影响较大， ...

研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号：F3045719 投资咨询证号：Z0015458 目录 第一章 综合分析&交易策略 2 | | | 第二章 数据图表&逻辑分析 3 GALAXY FUTURES 【生猪周报】供应整体稳定 价格继续震荡 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 1.综合分析&交易策略 ◼ 综合分析 本周生猪价格继续呈现回落态势，供应压力仍在继续体现。规模企业出栏压力仍然存在，由于前期出栏进度相对偏慢，近 期出栏量整体呈现增加态势，但随着价格逐步回落，普通养殖户对低价抵触有所增加，出栏有所减少，二次育肥近期入场 整体有所减少。因此近期生猪市场出栏方面整体稳定。出栏体重方面，近期生猪出栏体重整体呈现增加态势，加之大小猪 价差有所回落，市场大体重猪源供应量有所增加。需求方面来看，本周生猪屠宰量预计有小幅增加，但冻品库存同样呈现 增加态势，生猪表观需求预计整体一般，但由于生猪鲜效率呈现下行态 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The liquid caustic soda market is in a weak balance, with short - term weak trends mainly. The supply in the Shandong liquid caustic soda market is continuously abundant, the export market lacks substantial boost, and the demand from alumina enterprises is in a stalemate. The caustic soda market shows an oscillating and weakening trend [4][5]. - The alumina market is gradually entering a stalemate in the short - term, with a supply surplus situation remaining unchanged, and prices are expected to still have a large probability of falling [17]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Supply - demand situation**: The supply of the Shandong liquid caustic soda market is abundant, and the export market lacks substantial boost. The demand from alumina enterprises is in a stalemate, with many news of potential production cuts from the end of the last month. The liquid chlorine price remains in the profit range [4]. - **Trading strategies**: For unilateral trading, the caustic soda market shows an oscillating and weakening trend; for arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [5]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **Alumina market**: The delivery volume of liquid caustic soda to large alumina plants in Shandong has increased, and the price has slightly decreased. As of November 6, 2025, the inventory of alumina plants has continued to rise. The alumina market is in a stalemate, and prices are expected to fall [7][9][17]. - **Caustic soda market**: The caustic soda inventory has decreased, with a 6.29% week - on - week decrease in the factory inventory of 200,000 - ton and above fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises. The caustic soda production capacity utilization rate has slightly increased, with an average of 84.8% for 200,000 - ton and above caustic soda sample enterprises in China from October 31 to November 6, 2025, a 0.5% increase from the previous week [10][13][19]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - **Price data**: The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda purchased by major alumina manufacturers in Shandong has decreased. The caustic soda futures price, 32% liquid caustic soda spot price, 50% caustic soda spot price, and flake caustic soda spot price are presented in the form of charts [9][25][27]. - **Inventory data**: The factory inventory of caustic soda has decreased, and the inventory in different regions shows different trends. The inventory of flake caustic soda is also presented in the form of charts [10][13][42]. - **Production capacity and production data**: The alumina production capacity has increased, with the national alumina operating capacity reaching 96.85 million tons as of this Friday, a 100,000 - ton increase from last week. The caustic soda production capacity utilization rate has slightly increased, and new caustic soda production capacity has been put into operation [17][19][52]. - **Device maintenance data**: Multiple caustic soda plants have carried out or planned maintenance, affecting the local production capacity [55]. - **Consumption data**: The consumption of caustic soda is presented in the form of charts, including total consumption, liquid caustic soda consumption, and flake caustic soda consumption [57]. - **Export data**: The export of caustic soda is presented in the form of charts. In 2025, overseas alumina new production capacity is expected to reach 4.5 million tons, and the preparation of caustic soda in Indonesia has been completed [73][82].